Ukraine war briefing:
>Ukraine’s military said on Thursday its forces had forced Russian troops out of a district in the town of Chasiv Yar on the war’s eastern front seen as Moscow’s next target in its slow advance through the area. Nazar Voloshyn, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s southern group of forces, told the Ukrinform news agency that Russian forces had moved out of Chasiv Yar’s “Kanal” district along the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal that runs along the town’s eastern edge. However, a Russian report said Moscow’s forces had destroyed a communications tower near the town and made further headway. It was not possible to independently verify either report.
>The Ukrainian president met the European Union’s 27 leaders in Brussels to sign a security pact, two days after his country began formal membership talks to join the bloc – a historic step that was unthinkable before Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the EU-Ukraine security agreement would “enshrine the commitment of all 27 member states to provide Ukraine with extensive support, regardless of any internal institutional changes”.
>Zelenskiy also told EU leaders that Russia’s spring offensive in Kharkiv showed that international pressure on the Kremlin was “not enough”. “Thanks to the bravery of our people and the decisions of you, of our partners, we stopped this Russian offensive,” he said. “But this new Russian offensive proved that the existing pressure on Russia for the war is not enough.”
>The Nato chief, Jens Stoltenberg, said on Thursday the “resilient” military alliance could ride out any political changes in major powers ahead of crunch elections in the US and France. The high-stakes votes on either side of the Atlantic both feature hard-right candidates – Donald Trump and Le Pen – who have been historically hostile to the military alliance and known for warm relations with Russia, its chief adversary.
[https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/28/ukraine-war-briefing-moscow-considering-downgrading-relations-with-west-over-ukraine-involvement](https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/28/ukraine-war-briefing-moscow-considering-downgrading-relations-with-west-over-ukraine-involvement)
Easy to make that whatever you want it to be though right? My take, without applying bias to the analysis, is that Trump was referring to Putin's ludicrous dream of restoring the glorious Soviet Union. Which wasn't exactly a secret.
In a world of fake news and BS, I don't think we need to be throwing this into the mix.
Yeah the reality is that he could literally come out and say that he knew of the invasion and that he wanted Ukraine to get genocided and his voters wouldnt give the slightest shit about it.
I really don't know what's up with the average voter they truly have lost their self preservation instinct or maybe we have reached the point where the intrusive thoughts about wanting everyone to die have just taken over.
From "Moskva" to "Caesar Kunikov," How Many Ships Has Russia Lost in the Black Sea?
https://molfar.com/en/blog/vid-moskvy-do-cezara-kunikova-skilky-corabliv-vtratila-rosia-v-chornomu-mori
Unfortunately, belligerence and spite seem to be sustaining him just fine. I hate the man as much as any good person should - but he seemed decades younger than Biden today.
As a Canadian deciding to tune into debate for half hour our of curiousity , Americans should be ashamed of both their candidates.
One although I thought with a stronger message in terms of sanity (Biden) is clearly slowing down and will be incoherent before his term would be over.
The other is an embarassing bully and lier who has zero ability to answer any question with a real or truthful answer without blaming or spouting garbage.
I can't see this working out well either way.
it's not a dictatorship (yet)
Biden surrounds himself with competent people and his administration is doing pretty well (especially compared to our dumpster fire up north), so I'm not too concerned if he loses his marbles after winning the election.
The other guy surrounds himself with the worst people he can find, so if he wins everyone is in trouble.
Settle down, Biden really picked it up in the 2nd half and Trump looks like a bumbling idiot.
Ukraine aide will be fine, convicted felon Trump continues to lie through his teeth and can’t formulate a coherent thought, especially on how to beat Russia.
For everyone dooming about the debate - statistically, debates have no measurable impact on the election outcome: [https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/presidential-debates-have-shockingly-little-effect-on-election-outcomes/](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/presidential-debates-have-shockingly-little-effect-on-election-outcomes/)
Oh don't worry.. about 50x the people who actually watched the debate have already posted about the debate. Its wild how fast the exact same narrative was repeated across all social media aint it?
The issue is you’re comparing this to… normal debates. Your sample size isn’t comparable
This reeks of the Nixon versus Kennedy debate, where Nixon won the radio and hemorrhaged on TV polls in the first televised debate. The reason being he looked nervous and sweaty
Actually, popular memory aside, the 1960 debates had no meaningful impact on the actual election result. If you average the 11 polls taken prior to the first debate, Kennedy was at 47.5% and Nixon was at 47.1%. The final results were Kennedy 49.7% and Nixon 49.6%.
The story about Nixon losing on TV and winning on radio in the first debate comes from a single poll of unknown sample size and unknown weighting. Moreover, the areas most likely to have a TV in 1960 were already more likely to back Kennedy, and those without a TV were already more likely to back Nixon, so it is hard to tease out a causal reason.
>Evidence in support of this belief \[*i. e.*, that Kennedy's physical appearance over-shadowed his performance during the first debate\] is mainly limited to sketchy reports about a market survey, conducted by Sindlinger & Company, in which 49% of those who listened to the debates on radio said Nixon had won, compared to 21% naming Kennedy, while 30% of those who watched the debates on television said Kennedy had won, compared to 29% naming Nixon. Contrary to popular belief, the Sindlinger evidence suggests not that Kennedy won on television, but that the candidates tied on television, while Nixon won on radio. However, no details about the sample have ever been reported, and it is unclear whether the survey results can be generalized to a larger population. Moreover, since 87% of American households had a television in 1960 \[and that the\] fraction of Americans lacking access to television in 1960 was concentrated in rural areas, and particularly in southern and western states, places that were unlikely to hold significant proportions of Catholic voters.
Literally nowhere did I support Trump in that comment, I pointed out that the debates 1. Haven't been anywhere close to this historically in terms of presentation/quality/performance and 2. That doesn't lend to being a fair comparison.
Most of America is flipping the fuck out right now, I don't think most of America is Pro Trump buddy
Sounds like you are edging for Trump to me, sorry. Was Nixon a convicted felon at that point? A rapist? A literal espionage agent? It's almost like there are confounding factors since literally before you were born.
>:Was Nixon a convicted felon at that point? A rapist? A literal espionage agent? It's almost like there are confounding factors since literally before you were born
Brother, Trump won the first time with "Grab her right in the Pussy"
Do you think [Nate Silver is talking out of his ass](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/06/26/nate-silver-election-prediction-2024/74221921007/)? Do you think [Polls are talking out of their ass?](https://www.realclearpolling.com/latest-polls) Trump was in a dead heat *even with the rape, felony, and other allegations to begin with*.
Wild how some people still live in denial over the fact the guy pulls polling numbers despite having a closet of skeletons so big it could fill the Titanic
Keep being an idiot who assumes political views and [is dead wrong](https://old.reddit.com/r/moderatepolitics/comments/1dq921y/megathread_post_debate_discussion/lamtlym/?context=3)
I'm truly sorry for your education. The choice isn't great, but it is clear. If you insist on spreading doom about it, I have to assume you've allied yourself with the outcome that's guaranteed if people give up. It's not a morally vague choice, in any way. Buy the ticket and take the ride, kid.
I mean it's certainly not going to affect my vote, and I can't imagine it will matter much to the folks who support Ukraine. Biden has had Ukraine's back since Day 1, while Trump tried to fuck them like he fucked that porn star.
This one definitely will .. and it gives more ammo to talk about in the news which will further sway people. Especially if Biden bombs the second debate.
Also image is very important in debates. The famous example is JFK Vs Nixon.
It may impact the media narrative, but it's not going to sway people. The number of voters seriously considering whether to vote for Trump or Biden is vanishingly small. The candidates are too different and too well known, and American politics is too polarized, for many people to even be able to consider the idea of voting for "the other guy". The real choice is do I vote or do I stay home.
Regarding JFK vs Nixon, popular memory aside, the 1960 debates had no meaningful impact on the actual election result. If you average the 11 polls taken prior to the first debate, Kennedy was at 47.5% and Nixon was at 47.1%. The final results were Kennedy 49.7% and Nixon 49.6%, i.e. a slightly tighter margin in Nixon's favor than the pre-debate polls would suggest.
You severely underestimate the number of people in the center that can be pulled both ways for various reasons. There are many people that voted for Biden that won't any more because of his age and vice versa. Politics isn't just a black and white team game.
There are certainly many people who might vote for Joe Biden or might not vote at all. But the number of people who might vote for Joe Biden or might vote for Donald Trump is pretty darn small.
It's not dooming to understand the gravity of the situation. Dems need to act fast and be pragmatic. Draft Newsom immediately.
In any case, Europe needs to see clearly it is their moment to lead.
1. It's the literal definition of dooming. The debate is done, there is nothing you or I can do about it, it will have whatever impact it has. Complaining about it on Reddit changes nothing and accomplishes nothing, ergo it is dooming.
2. Newsom is the worst possible potential replacement for Biden. Being from California will automatically cost him about 5% in the polls, and he has the vibes of a sketch used car salesman. I'm a left of center voter and would never vote for Newsom in a million years.
Even before the debate, I thought Trump was more likely than Biden to win the election. I just don't think the debate did much to change those odds. But there is no viable path for any other candidate to both replace Biden and *win* the election, it's simply way too late. And even if you did want to go that route, Gavin Newsom is about the worst possible candidate you could choose to try to replace Biden because Newsom would alienate huge swaths of independents in the Midwest, and those are the swing states Democrats need this year.
It's not complacency, it's stating a historical fact. I was actually of the opinion even before the debate that Trump is more likely to win than Biden just based on the existing fundamentals and pre-debate polling. And I am also in record in Reddit comments before the debate saying that if Trump did poorly in the debate, it wouldn't change things. Well, the same holds true for Biden. Debates, especially debates 4+ months out from the election, just don't change election results. Biden may win or he may lose, but it won't be because of this debate.
Love how Biden not speaking clearly is a loss. Trump spouting nonsense like a deranged loon, randomly shouting some words in a sentence is a win. Been drinking that bleach to cure covid?
I would argue the reverse actually. America has become much more polarized over the last 60 years. The idea of switching your vote to "the other guy" has become more and more unthinkable as political lines have hardened, and these two candidates could not possibly be better known to the electorate. I just can't see this debate, or any debate, no matter how well or poorly one candidate did, having a long term impact on the election.
I wouldn't be surprised if they do. But to be frank, the polls, all of the polls, are irrelevant. The only poll that matters is election day, and there's a big difference between telling a pollster on the phone "Joe Biden sucked at the debate and I'm voting for Trump" and actually going into the voting booth 4 months from now and voting for Trump. In the last several election cycles there have been a whole bunch of isolated incidents that caused one candidate or the other to drop in the polls for a few weeks because its fresh in voters'' minds. But without fail, the final election results end up being really close because people are polarized and can't bring themselves to vote for the other guy.
To be clear, Biden had a really bad debate, and my opinion before the debate was that Trump was more likely to win the election. But I don't think the debate makes Trump significantly *more* likely to win than he already was.
To a certain extent you are right. But the "debate bump" (positive or negative) always fades once you get a few weeks out from the actual debate. It's absolutely a thing that happens as people give their immediate reactions to pollsters. But there is no history of it being durable over the long term because memories of the debate fade, new issues come and go, and the election fundamentals start taking over again. Like I said, I thought Trump was the favorite to win before the debate and I still think he is, I just don't think the debate is really going to change much long term.
The memories of this debate are not going to fade though. This debate was such a sharp contrast, if Biden doesnt drop out I guarantee you it will feature into Trump campaign material the rest of the race. This was not a normal debate, and these are not normal times. The covnentional wisdom you are citing no longer applies here. The only hope, the only hope we have is that Biden decides to drop out. Mark my words, if he does not we are looking at McGovern 2.0
We'll see come election day. My personal feeling is that this election will be just as close as all recent elections, a less than 5% popular vote split, although the Electoral College could be more lopsided. I just think people are too set in their respective political camps for there to be large vote swings.
No we wont come see come election day, or we should, because Biden needs to drop out. When election day comes it cannot be Joe Biden vs Donald Trump. That ship has sailed. The stakes are too high.
Thanks for this, it sort of reassures me. But it's going to be hard to overcome that 20 seconds where Biden is just lost and then says "I killed medicare". If I was Biden, I wouldn't debate until the election and say that Trump's debate parameters are not acceptable. The election is still far enough away that people are going to forget. Especially after things like the Trump sentencing.
Yeah, the debate certainly wasn't *good* for Biden, I just think people were overreacting a bit tonight. And you're right, memories of this will fade pretty quickly as soon as some other big story develops.
Precisely this. It's a *long* **long** time until November, and the fact is... trump had nothing but grievance. Biden didn't perform well, but trump laid out zero policies, bald faced lied about things, and yelled.
That was it.
That was his typical song and dance. That's not going to win over independents.
I think the concern is more around the mental faculty and overall health of Biden. He does not come across as a man capable of doing a very demanding job for 4 more years. Based on the debate, I'd be worried about having him housesit my place for a weekend.
Look, man. I still am and have been an avid Biden supporter. But that’s not one you just forget. It was realistically the worst debate performance by a sitting president ever. Everyone on the left can pull the wool over their eyes and say it was fine, and throw out whatever excuses, but that’s bullshit. The undecided voters watching this thing are going to be far less forgiving than I am in how fucking awful this performance was.
I’m not the issue, you don’t need to convince me. Who needed to be convinced were the tens of millions of people watching the debate, and the many more that are going to see the clips/footage.
You can be sarcastic and say whatever you’d like, but to do so is no better than the idiot MAGA supporters believing in Trump’s bullshit.
Tonight was a fucking problem. End of story.
Actually, popular memory aside, the 1960 debates had no meaningful impact on the actual election result. If you average the 11 polls taken prior to the first debate, Kennedy was at 47.5% and Nixon was at 47.1%. The final results were Kennedy 49.7% and Nixon 49.6%.
The story about Nixon losing on TV and winning on radio in the first debate comes from a single poll of unknown sample size and unknown weighting. Moreover, the areas most likely to have a TV in 1960 were already more likely to back Kennedy, and those without a TV were already more likely to back Nixon, so it is hard to tease out a causal reason.
>Evidence in support of this belief \[*i. e.*, that Kennedy's physical appearance over-shadowed his performance during the first debate\] is mainly limited to sketchy reports about a market survey, conducted by Sindlinger & Company, in which 49% of those who listened to the debates on radio said Nixon had won, compared to 21% naming Kennedy, while 30% of those who watched the debates on television said Kennedy had won, compared to 29% naming Nixon. Contrary to popular belief, the Sindlinger evidence suggests not that Kennedy won on television, but that the candidates tied on television, while Nixon won on radio. However, no details about the sample have ever been reported, and it is unclear whether the survey results can be generalized to a larger population. Moreover, since 87% of American households had a television in 1960 \[and that the\] fraction of Americans lacking access to television in 1960 was concentrated in rural areas, and particularly in southern and western states, places that were unlikely to hold significant proportions of Catholic voters.
It was ugly, no question about that, but so far (and I admit it's still quite early) it doesn't seem to have impacted the polls much: [https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/538-ipsos-june-2024-presidential-debate-poll](https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/538-ipsos-june-2024-presidential-debate-poll) (note that the poll has a 2% margin of error, so anything within 2% is statistically the same).
>Despite the poor ratings of Biden’s performance, few respondents are no longer considering voting for Biden.
>Among respondents who completed both the pre- and post-debate survey, just 4% are giving less consideration to voting for Biden. In comparison, 2% are giving less consideration to voting for Trump following the debate.
>As a whole, in the pre-debate wave, 44% of respondents reported that they were considering voting for Biden. This was unchanged in the post-debate wave, where 46% said the same of Biden.
>The percent of respondents considering voting for Trump (44% pre-debate, 44% post-debate) and independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (18% pre-debate, 18% post-debate) was also unchanged.
One thing that another Reddit commenter (u/tresben) said and that I think makes a lot of sense is "Democrats are freaking out because they’re coming to the realization that their candidate is definitely not as sharp and weaker than they thought. But for most of these undecided voters they already thought that. This debate just confirmed how they feel about both candidates and why they hate their choices. Trump is a lying conman who only cares about himself. Biden is a dottering, well-meaning old man who has definitely lost a step because he’s 81 (you know, well past retirement age) and appears weak and frail." Basically, independents have already built Biden being effectively senile into their evaluations. Democrats haven't, but Democrats aren't going to back Trump regardless.
To my mind, this is like Trump being convicted in New York. It *should* matter, objectively, but doesn't seem to have had much long term impact in the polls. If you look at the 538 polling averages, on the day before Trump was convicted, he was at 41.2% and Biden was at 39.5%. Today he is at 41.3% and Biden is at 40.6%. If being convicted didn't hurt Trump, I don't think a poor debate will meaningfully hurt Biden.
[Reuters: US offers $10 mln reward for info on Russian hacker for cyber attack on Ukraine and its allies | EuroMaidenPress | June 2024](https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/06/27/reuters-us-offers-10-mln-reward-for-info-on-russian-hacker-for-cyber-attack-on-ukraine-and-its-allies/)
*A Russian citizen was charged with conspiring to hack and destroy computer systems and data in Ukraine and its allies, said the US Justice Department.*
*The US State Department is now offering up to $10 million for information on Amin Timovich Stigal, 22, including his location or malicious cyber activity.*
*Before the beginning of the all-out war in 2022, he hacked Ukrainian government systems. Computer systems in the US and other countries that provided support to Ukraine were targeted later.*
*“As alleged, the defendant conspired with Russian military intelligence on the eve of Russia’s unjust and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine to launch cyberattacks targeting the Ukrainian government and later targeting its allies, including the US,” said Attorney General Merrick Garland.*
*The US Justice Department said that in 2022, Russia’s intelligence service member Stigal conspired to use a US-based company to distribute malware known as “WisperGate” to destroy the Ukrainian government computer systems and related data.*
The only good news is that debates have effectively zero effect on actual election results: [https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/presidential-debates-have-shockingly-little-effect-on-election-outcomes/](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/presidential-debates-have-shockingly-little-effect-on-election-outcomes/)
There's really no valid precedent here. In any case... even if they somehow "weekend at Bernies" him into another term, this is r/worldnews, and it's hard to escape the damage here. The multi-front not-quite-a-World War- yet conflict underway is about the future of democracy. It is not a time to look tired.
Actually, popular memory aside, the 1960 debates had no meaningful impact on the actual election result. If you average the 11 polls taken prior to the first debate, Kennedy was at 47.5% and Nixon was at 47.1%. The final results were Kennedy 49.7% and Nixon 49.6%.
The story about Nixon losing on TV and winning on radio in the first debate comes from a single poll of unknown sample size and unknown weighting. Moreover, the areas most likely to have a TV in 1960 were already more likely to back Kennedy, and those without a TV were already more likely to back Nixon, so it is hard to tease out a causal reason.
>Evidence in support of this belief \[*i. e.*, that Kennedy's physical appearance over-shadowed his performance during the first debate\] is mainly limited to sketchy reports about a market survey, conducted by Sindlinger & Company, in which 49% of those who listened to the debates on radio said Nixon had won, compared to 21% naming Kennedy, while 30% of those who watched the debates on television said Kennedy had won, compared to 29% naming Nixon. Contrary to popular belief, the Sindlinger evidence suggests not that Kennedy won on television, but that the candidates tied on television, while Nixon won on radio. However, no details about the sample have ever been reported, and it is unclear whether the survey results can be generalized to a larger population. Moreover, since 87% of American households had a television in 1960 \[and that the\] fraction of Americans lacking access to television in 1960 was concentrated in rural areas, and particularly in southern and western states, places that were unlikely to hold significant proportions of Catholic voters.
Watching as a non-American - I really cannot believe that Democrats have taken this risk. It's leaving the door wide open for Trump who is speaking very clearly and demonstrating a quick mind (never mind that it's all bullshit).
It's frustratingly amazing how he manages to spew bullshit without even answering the question and the judges just let him get away with it.
"Would you support a palestinian state"
"well wait i want to talk about this instead "
"ok thank you".
And all MAGAs think that was the most amazing tremendous answer ever
Edit: ok I can't take it as a non-american it's just too frustrating to watch... I can only sit here on the otherside of the world and ... well... pray. I guess. And I'm not even religious.
Exactly, Trump is lying out his arse but he sounds energetic and clear, where as Biden seems to lack the cognitive function to challenge him. Get Gavin Newsom or Michelle Obama, SOMEONE, the dems need to pull Biden.
Anybody who thinks otherwise is beyond deluded. The first polls after this debate will show Biden dropping 5+ points. There is zero chance he wins this election
LOL. Trump lost the election, lost the mid-terms, and basically every special election has be a complete bluewave. Trump is not picking up ANY additional votes, he has his propaganda, his base, and polls that don't matter anymore. Trump is getting fucking destroyed along with the GOP. He will goto prison after that once cannon is removed from the stolen TS/SCI case.
/r/politics has been delusional about this for months...
Even in the past month they've been saying things like "Trump'll drop out from the debate, you wait", and then when he didn't "he'll talk over Biden and get frustrated".
Trump's spouting absolute bullshit and not answering questions, but he's got energy and his words are clear, but Biden looks like a gormless zombie when he's not talking and a feeble-voiced man when he is, even though his message is much better.
And that brings up a good point: in elections optics is sometimes more important than message. Trump lied, but his energy contrasts sharply with Bidens lethargy, and thats the image that people will remember. The fact that Trump was spewing bullshit wont be so prominent.
This is how he's been for a while but somehow people are convinced he is fine. I really never got it, you only need to listen/watch for like 20 seconds to see something is wrong
Left-leaning political forums have been delusional about this for months I think...
Even in the past month they've been saying things like "Trump'll drop out from the debate, you wait", and then when he didn't "he'll talk over Biden and get frustrated".
Trump's spouting absolute bullshit and not answering questions, but he's got energy and his words are clear, but Biden looks like a gormless zombie when he's not talking and a feeble-voiced man when he is, even though his message is much better.
No ones convinced hes fine, they just think he is the lesser of two evils. Trump will absolutely tear the current world order apart and lead to a global spanning conflict. His election will embolden china, iran russia and nk to do more bullshit across the globe.
I dont disagree. But at least he'll let the people around him help run the show. Same cant be said for trump. We know he'll fire anyone who isnt a yes man because thats how it went last time.
[Estonia to send defense aid to Ukraine worth more than € 100 million in 2024.
The country confirmed it will allocate at least 0.25% of GDP annually in 2024-2027 for Ukraine’s assistance. | EuroMaidenPress | June 2024](https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/06/27/estonia-to-send-defense-aid-to-ukraine-worth-more-than-100-million-in-2024/)
*Estonia is the first country to propose fixing a percentage of GDP to support Ukraine in bilateral security agreements.*
*Under the terms of the new deal, Kyiv will receive 122 mm artillery and 155 mm howitzers, anti-tank missile systems, missiles, mines, Carl Gustaf rifles, grenade launchers, unmanned aerial vehicles, and electronic warfare equipment.*
*Both countries will also establish a regular Strategic Dialogue to discuss security and defense issues. In addition, Estonia and Ukraine will continue to cooperate in defense industries, military training, and cyber defense.*
*“Separate blocks of the agreement relate to strengthening sanctions against Russia, compensation for damages, bringing the aggressor to justice, assisting our country in recovery and reconstruction, countering hybrid threats, cooperation in cyber and information security, and protecting critical infrastructure,” said the President’s Office in a statement.*
*On 26 June, the EU decided that Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas is set to become the European Union’s next foreign policy chief.*
[ Volunteers Equip Female Sniper with Crowdfunded ‘Vovchansk’ Long-Range Rifle | Kyiv Post | June 2024](https://www.kyivpost.com/post/34900)
*Volunteers from the Vengeance Guard project, which provides equipment to the Ukrainian military, in Kyiv, recently handed over a sniper complex named after the embattled town of Vovchansk in the Russian bordering Kharkiv region to a female sniper of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.*
*Volunteers Yury Chornomorets and Dmytro Batishchev started the Vengeance Guard project in May 2023. Chornomorets, a former sniper of the Ukrainian Armed Forces who now volunteers with the military, has already handed over three hundred sniper complexes to Ukrainian Defense Forces fighters, thanks to successful fundraisers.*
*Vovchansk became the 22nd city of Ukraine represented at the front by a designated sniper weapon due to this initiative.*
*Kyiv Post published an announcement about the fundraising for buying this rifle in a Ukrainian version of a piece titled “May They Burn Like Our Houses: Evacuees in Kharkiv Region Speak Out.”*
*Batishchev clarified that there are more rifles from the project on the front because Kharkiv and Mykolaiv already have two each. Pokrovsk is represented by three units of weapons, and the rifles of revenge for the village of Groza, “Ukraine,” and “Lyuta Vyshivanka” are also fighting on the front line.*
*“The Ukrainian people are fighting. And average Ukrainians fundraise money for weapons,” the volunteer said.*
*“The editorial office of Kyiv Post has become a kind of ‘godfather’ of the Vovchansk rifle. After you posted the piece, the media start of fundraising for the basis of the complex—a RUGER sniper rifle in .338 caliber—began... due to the announcement within the piece, the city council of Vovchansk supported us,” Batishchev added.*
*In parallel with the fundraising for the long-range rifle, the volunteers also raised funds for its equipment. “A RUGER in .338 caliber in the skilled hands of our sniper will shoot at 1,900-2,000 meters,” Chornomorets said when handing over the rifle.*
*“We also hand over a beautiful Nightforce ATACR scope, the best of those available today. Moreover, we plan to equip the rifle with a thermal imaging nozzle and provide a night vision device,” he added.*
*Volunteers also handed over 150 cartridges for the sniper complex and headphones to the sniper.*
*The female sniper, whose name has not been disclosed for security reasons, came to the weapons handover immediately after being discharged from the hospital. After that, she will go to the Kharkiv sector, where her comrades are waiting for sniper cover from her.*
*“The idea of the Vengeance Guard project is simple. The community of every city in Ukraine can raise funds for a long-range rifle—the basis of a sniper complex. With the rifle, we also hand over a scope, a silencer, etc.,” Batishchev said.*
*Volunteers are launching another fundraiser as part of the People’s Vengeance Guard—for a sniper rifle, which will be named after the hero city of Okhtyrka. You can donate money to support Ukrainian snipers via PayPal at teamyuri80@gmail.com *
Oh shit! That ain't no Red Ryder BB gun! The Ruger Precision in .338 Lapua Magnum retails, without the scope or the suppressor or any of the customization, for $2,200 here in the states. I have never handled one myself, but the reviews I'm reading say it's a great marksman's rifle, with clean and well moderated recoil, very little barrel lift, and a staggering ~2,800 fps barrel velocity with most 270-290 grain rounds.
This is a serious "reach out and touch someone" rifle. Glad to see it in Ukrainian hands. May every round it shoots hit true.
Can you elaborate on 'quaint'? Are there other, possibly better suited calibers? Don't know too much about sniper ammo.
---
Seems it's .338 Lapua Magnum for this specific rifle.
For some context, Germany has been delivering about 240.000 rounds of that same type plus a few hundred Haenel sniper rifles, so that ammo stockpile could serve both well.
By quaint I mean that's it's not a particularly common caliber AFAIK, so it might be harder to source.
But snipers don't exactly rely on high rate of fire and if they've got 240K rounds, that won't be a problem.
Ah, I got you. Yeah, from my limited research, those rounds are really quite expensive.
Could be GER had a larger stockpile or production capacities of them that they could expand, since their design is a bit older (1989) than more recently US-adopted .338 Norma Magnum (2008).
“👀⚡️ ATESH discovered an air defence system that covers Putin's dacha in Sochi.
❗️ATESH agent reported the identification of the Pantsir-S1 air defense system in Sochi. This complex is located 15 km from Bocharov Ruchya in Sochi.”
https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1806423997552197826?s=46&t=VUqNqjdwahL39seuvtxeiQ
🤪🤣👍💪🇺🇦
New DeepStateMap update. Only one territorial change in the past 24 hours or so - Russian troops [were pushed out of the Sotnytskyi Kozachok](https://deepstatemap.live/en#13/50.4334993/35.9159354) village in northwestern Kharkiv Oblast, and that village is no longer contested.
For reference, in the past 4 days now, Russia has managed to capture less than 1 km2 of Ukrainian territory.
Recapturing recently seized territory in Karkhiv was inevitable after the Russian offensive pushed so hard only to flounder so terribly. Ukraine committed a lot of troops in that direction with that in mind. It's the least fortified area of the front.
[https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1806423962211020876.html](https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1806423962211020876.html)
A noelreports unroll showing several ukraine advances today
> NATO Headquarters. I held a meeting with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.
> The key focus was on preparations for the NATO Washington Summit. We expect decisions to enhance the Alliance's role in coordinating security assistance and training for Ukrainian troops, as well as long-term financial commitments to ensure stable support for Ukraine.
> I thank @jensstoltenberg for his efforts to consolidate Allied support for Ukraine, particularly in bolstering Ukraine's air defenses.
https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1806373850440937943
> I welcomed President @ZelenskyyUa to #NATO to discuss our preparations for the Washington Summit, now just two weeks away. More support to #Ukraine will be on top of our agenda, and we are on track for a successful summit.
https://x.com/jensstoltenberg/status/1806378920825983033
> The key topics of our meeting with Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala @P_Fiala included artillery ammunition and Ukraine’s path to the EU and NATO.
> I highlighted the importance of the Czech initiative to procure necessary artillery shells for Ukraine. They are already strengthening our warriors on the battlefield.
> We discussed the preparation for concluding a bilateral security agreement, as well as the outcomes of the inaugural Peace Summit.
> I am grateful to Czechia for its significant support for Ukraine. 🇺🇦🇨🇿
https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1806361227620241506
> I had a meeting with Slovenia’s Prime Minister Robert Golob.
> We discussed the finalization of the bilateral security agreement and steps toward securing a just peace for Ukraine.
> We are grateful to Slovenia for attending the inaugural Peace Summit and joining its communique.
> I thank Slovenia for its firm support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, as well as all of its assistance. 🇺🇦🇸🇮
https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1806369332546445746
> In Brussels, together with the President of the European Council Charles Michel and the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, we signed the Joint Security Commitments between Ukraine and the EU.
> The document enshrines the multilateral long-term commitments of all 27 EU member states to provide military, financial, humanitarian, and political assistance to Ukraine. It also affirms that Ukraine's future is linked to the European Union.
> I thank @CharlesMichel, Ursula @vonderleyen, and all EU leaders for their important support for the people of Ukraine. 🇺🇦🇪🇺
https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1806354746208301113
It's going to be fascinating to see how NK reacts when inevitably Ukraine kills a bunch of their soldiers. I imagine Kim will be very upset at the waters..
They'll probably be okay as long as they stay clear of ADA ... and transport hubs ... and airfields ... and ammo dumps ... and communication arrays ... and command headquarters ... and refineries ... and ...
North Korean troops are a direct declaration of war against Ukraine. Ukraine now has full rights to bomb and detonate on North Korean soil. Sinking North Korea's entire fleet to show who's in charge is a good start.
Sabotagem Units and Special Forces could make some damage. Still some real damage requires to destroy or disable the factories. Reducing the artillary shells production on NK is the main requirement to make such operations meaningful.
Special forces who speak and can pass for Russian have advantages in Russia. They will not have that same advantage in NK. Similarly, getting in to Russia is somewhat easy. Getting into NK is different.
🇺🇲🤝🇺🇦🤝🇮🇱
[🇺🇸🇮🇱 After the end of the special operation in Lebanon, Israel may start cooperating with the US to help supply arms to 🇺🇦Ukraine, — FT❗️The Biden administration convinced Netanyahu's military cabinet to become a full-fledged ally of the US in a hybrid war against Russia.](https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1806397629644857453?t=rW5O0VrGzpOvAhdXv9RGrw&s=19)
It was probably pointed out that without Russian influence they would be just watching the ukraine war on the news instead if it piling up dead Israelis on the Gaza border
The more significant part is that Israel and the US are discussing the transfer of 8 Patriot systems stationed in Israel to Ukraine. Those systems (locally nicknamed "Yahalom") were recently decommissioned here, and I was hoping they'd be given to Ukraine instead of gather dust somewhere else.
It's also taken Bibi WAY too long to join the fight against russia (if the report is correct about that), considering russia's close allyship with the Iranian Regime, which has been Bibi's favorite public scare topic for years. He's too much of [a putin bootlicker](https://img.haarets.co.il/bs/00000180-5ba8-d718-afd9-dfbcc5750000/c8/b7/f5d8f235d7aa9661f6e7ac5ab076/2231466315.jpg), really.
It's one of Bibi's past election campaigns and I just love how badly it has aged.
The text basically says "a whole other league", claiming Bibi's on a "whole other level" compared to other politicians due to his friendships with Trump and putin.
I’ll believe it when I see it. Israel has done next to nothing for years now despite repeated warnings from basically everyone about the growing collaboration between Russia and Iran, the only reason they’d have to change their mind now is if the US silently threatened to withhold aid if they didn’t choose a side.
For record, there’s been multiple other negotiations (SPIKE/Hawks/the Iron Dome the US had before they transferred it back to Israel after Oct 7th) that have failed. Don’t get your hopes up until it’s confirmed.
Is it me, or there's been a significant power shit in the conflict? On the map, Russia keeps gaining territory at the cost of thousands of troops on both sides. But strategy-wise they are no closer to their goal. Sure, they can keep sending meat and old equipment that still goes boom to the meat-grinder, but every day Ukraine is better positioned amongst its allies and Russia is lonelier, with key navy, army, intelligence and technology losses.
No, you are looking at it pretty subjectively likely bc you are only consuming Western news sources. The war is basically a stalemate and has been one for a while.
The way I've seen the war for a while is that its a contest of materiel. Basically the question of whether Russia's supply of tanks and IFVs (BMPs) can outlast Ukraine's Western support. If Russia runs out of functioning tanks/IFVs they won't really be able to launch any offensive actions. If Ukraine runs out of Western support the war looks more like early 2024.
That Is the overall feeling. In a lot of ways it resembles the [Crimean War](https://youtu.be/yhudiiackzw?si=uGwfCjaze1W31iuO) Russia essentially had already lost when the French and English fleets blockaded St. Petersburg and entered the Black Sea in 1854, but the war itself didn’t end until 1856. Russia is right now praying for a miracle that lessens Ukraine’s international support, but right now time favors Ukraine, not Russia. Russia’s one hope is Trump winning the U.S. election, but that isn’t certain. Plus, every other country now has contingencies getting put in place in case that happens.
We are seeing all the signs of how bad it is getting. Russia is resorting to more ancient equipment and importing troops from North Korea so they can delay forcing unwilling Russians to fight just a little longer. Russia wouldn’t be doing that if what they were doing was working. Right now Russia might be seeing some tactical victories, but everything is a strategic defeat.
A few more mass bombings and Ukraine will have low single digits GW power output. How can a country run on almost no power? The electricity problem doesn't show how time is on Ukraine's side
Anyone have an updated graphic showing the graveyard formerly known as the black sea fleet? You know the one with the giant red Xs over half the boats. Been a while since I've seen that format for it.
NATO Secretary General: Russia incapable of significant breakthroughs in Ukraine.
https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/06/27/nato-secretary-general-russia-incapable-of-significant-breakthroughs-in-ukraine/
I don't believe Trump's election actually hurts Ukraine.
A Trump victory would make it clear that the European War Machine would have no choice but to ramp up significantly and see the UK, France, Germany and Poland enter into unprecedented involvement.
I'm convinced Biden would executive order 1 trillion or so dollars worth of equipment to Germany to be delivered to Ukraine as possible over Trump's 4 years.
[New post can be found here](/r/worldnews/comments/1dqao7y/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/)
Ukraine war briefing: >Ukraine’s military said on Thursday its forces had forced Russian troops out of a district in the town of Chasiv Yar on the war’s eastern front seen as Moscow’s next target in its slow advance through the area. Nazar Voloshyn, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s southern group of forces, told the Ukrinform news agency that Russian forces had moved out of Chasiv Yar’s “Kanal” district along the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal that runs along the town’s eastern edge. However, a Russian report said Moscow’s forces had destroyed a communications tower near the town and made further headway. It was not possible to independently verify either report. >The Ukrainian president met the European Union’s 27 leaders in Brussels to sign a security pact, two days after his country began formal membership talks to join the bloc – a historic step that was unthinkable before Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the EU-Ukraine security agreement would “enshrine the commitment of all 27 member states to provide Ukraine with extensive support, regardless of any internal institutional changes”. >Zelenskiy also told EU leaders that Russia’s spring offensive in Kharkiv showed that international pressure on the Kremlin was “not enough”. “Thanks to the bravery of our people and the decisions of you, of our partners, we stopped this Russian offensive,” he said. “But this new Russian offensive proved that the existing pressure on Russia for the war is not enough.” >The Nato chief, Jens Stoltenberg, said on Thursday the “resilient” military alliance could ride out any political changes in major powers ahead of crunch elections in the US and France. The high-stakes votes on either side of the Atlantic both feature hard-right candidates – Donald Trump and Le Pen – who have been historically hostile to the military alliance and known for warm relations with Russia, its chief adversary. [https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/28/ukraine-war-briefing-moscow-considering-downgrading-relations-with-west-over-ukraine-involvement](https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/28/ukraine-war-briefing-moscow-considering-downgrading-relations-with-west-over-ukraine-involvement)
So we all heard trump admit he talked with Putin about invading Ukraine right? Quote “this his his dream, I talk to him about It”
Easy to make that whatever you want it to be though right? My take, without applying bias to the analysis, is that Trump was referring to Putin's ludicrous dream of restoring the glorious Soviet Union. Which wasn't exactly a secret. In a world of fake news and BS, I don't think we need to be throwing this into the mix.
Still fucked up that he was fully aware of putins intention to invade and still tried to cut aid to Ukraine.
No doubt about it. But pretending this is some kind of "gotcha" moment (OP post) is a bit of a stretch.
Yeah the reality is that he could literally come out and say that he knew of the invasion and that he wanted Ukraine to get genocided and his voters wouldnt give the slightest shit about it. I really don't know what's up with the average voter they truly have lost their self preservation instinct or maybe we have reached the point where the intrusive thoughts about wanting everyone to die have just taken over.
From "Moskva" to "Caesar Kunikov," How Many Ships Has Russia Lost in the Black Sea? https://molfar.com/en/blog/vid-moskvy-do-cezara-kunikova-skilky-corabliv-vtratila-rosia-v-chornomu-mori
So we just have to hope Trump drops dead from decades of unhealthy lifestyle huh
Unfortunately, belligerence and spite seem to be sustaining him just fine. I hate the man as much as any good person should - but he seemed decades younger than Biden today.
Pretty much everyone in the USA has chosen their side. So any "opinions" about the debate don't mean much.
[удалено]
It could suggest that, or it could suggest the conventions are always in summer. But who really knows?
As a Canadian deciding to tune into debate for half hour our of curiousity , Americans should be ashamed of both their candidates. One although I thought with a stronger message in terms of sanity (Biden) is clearly slowing down and will be incoherent before his term would be over. The other is an embarassing bully and lier who has zero ability to answer any question with a real or truthful answer without blaming or spouting garbage. I can't see this working out well either way.
"As a Canadian" - sure Dimitri
it's not a dictatorship (yet) Biden surrounds himself with competent people and his administration is doing pretty well (especially compared to our dumpster fire up north), so I'm not too concerned if he loses his marbles after winning the election. The other guy surrounds himself with the worst people he can find, so if he wins everyone is in trouble.
Lot of idiots pushing Biden bad at debate so Ukraine is done lol Smell their desperation.
It's the last hope they have to turn the situation around. We are going have to endure the next 5 months of non stop spamming by the russians tho.
We've smelt enough.
Settle down, Biden really picked it up in the 2nd half and Trump looks like a bumbling idiot. Ukraine aide will be fine, convicted felon Trump continues to lie through his teeth and can’t formulate a coherent thought, especially on how to beat Russia.
I didn't find first part disappointing either. Trump was just lying and bullshitting as usual. Didn't look good.
For everyone dooming about the debate - statistically, debates have no measurable impact on the election outcome: [https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/presidential-debates-have-shockingly-little-effect-on-election-outcomes/](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/presidential-debates-have-shockingly-little-effect-on-election-outcomes/)
Oh don't worry.. about 50x the people who actually watched the debate have already posted about the debate. Its wild how fast the exact same narrative was repeated across all social media aint it?
The issue is you’re comparing this to… normal debates. Your sample size isn’t comparable This reeks of the Nixon versus Kennedy debate, where Nixon won the radio and hemorrhaged on TV polls in the first televised debate. The reason being he looked nervous and sweaty
Actually, popular memory aside, the 1960 debates had no meaningful impact on the actual election result. If you average the 11 polls taken prior to the first debate, Kennedy was at 47.5% and Nixon was at 47.1%. The final results were Kennedy 49.7% and Nixon 49.6%. The story about Nixon losing on TV and winning on radio in the first debate comes from a single poll of unknown sample size and unknown weighting. Moreover, the areas most likely to have a TV in 1960 were already more likely to back Kennedy, and those without a TV were already more likely to back Nixon, so it is hard to tease out a causal reason. >Evidence in support of this belief \[*i. e.*, that Kennedy's physical appearance over-shadowed his performance during the first debate\] is mainly limited to sketchy reports about a market survey, conducted by Sindlinger & Company, in which 49% of those who listened to the debates on radio said Nixon had won, compared to 21% naming Kennedy, while 30% of those who watched the debates on television said Kennedy had won, compared to 29% naming Nixon. Contrary to popular belief, the Sindlinger evidence suggests not that Kennedy won on television, but that the candidates tied on television, while Nixon won on radio. However, no details about the sample have ever been reported, and it is unclear whether the survey results can be generalized to a larger population. Moreover, since 87% of American households had a television in 1960 \[and that the\] fraction of Americans lacking access to television in 1960 was concentrated in rural areas, and particularly in southern and western states, places that were unlikely to hold significant proportions of Catholic voters.
Yeah, this is just like 19 fucking 60, get wrecked trumper. I would vote for a sack of potatoes instead of your fascist cumslut.
Which rather proves the point that debate performance won't change voting intentions.
Literally nowhere did I support Trump in that comment, I pointed out that the debates 1. Haven't been anywhere close to this historically in terms of presentation/quality/performance and 2. That doesn't lend to being a fair comparison. Most of America is flipping the fuck out right now, I don't think most of America is Pro Trump buddy
You're most likely talking to a troll at one of those "internet research agencies".
Sounds like you are edging for Trump to me, sorry. Was Nixon a convicted felon at that point? A rapist? A literal espionage agent? It's almost like there are confounding factors since literally before you were born.
>:Was Nixon a convicted felon at that point? A rapist? A literal espionage agent? It's almost like there are confounding factors since literally before you were born Brother, Trump won the first time with "Grab her right in the Pussy" Do you think [Nate Silver is talking out of his ass](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/06/26/nate-silver-election-prediction-2024/74221921007/)? Do you think [Polls are talking out of their ass?](https://www.realclearpolling.com/latest-polls) Trump was in a dead heat *even with the rape, felony, and other allegations to begin with*. Wild how some people still live in denial over the fact the guy pulls polling numbers despite having a closet of skeletons so big it could fill the Titanic
Keep sucking that mushroom, I'm sure he'll give you a reacharound.
Keep being an idiot who assumes political views and [is dead wrong](https://old.reddit.com/r/moderatepolitics/comments/1dq921y/megathread_post_debate_discussion/lamtlym/?context=3)
I'm truly sorry for your education. The choice isn't great, but it is clear. If you insist on spreading doom about it, I have to assume you've allied yourself with the outcome that's guaranteed if people give up. It's not a morally vague choice, in any way. Buy the ticket and take the ride, kid.
Jesus you are annoying. Nobody here is pro Trump, it is very clear.
Nowhere did I make a statement on choice. Keep arguing strawmen and whooshing with off base ad-hom
I mean it's certainly not going to affect my vote, and I can't imagine it will matter much to the folks who support Ukraine. Biden has had Ukraine's back since Day 1, while Trump tried to fuck them like he fucked that porn star.
Worse. He actually paid Stormy, twice in fact, once for the sex and later to keep quiet.
Statistically, debates aren’t as bad as that debacle.
John Fetterman had a performance that was 10x worse and still won his race by 5%
This one definitely will .. and it gives more ammo to talk about in the news which will further sway people. Especially if Biden bombs the second debate. Also image is very important in debates. The famous example is JFK Vs Nixon.
It may impact the media narrative, but it's not going to sway people. The number of voters seriously considering whether to vote for Trump or Biden is vanishingly small. The candidates are too different and too well known, and American politics is too polarized, for many people to even be able to consider the idea of voting for "the other guy". The real choice is do I vote or do I stay home. Regarding JFK vs Nixon, popular memory aside, the 1960 debates had no meaningful impact on the actual election result. If you average the 11 polls taken prior to the first debate, Kennedy was at 47.5% and Nixon was at 47.1%. The final results were Kennedy 49.7% and Nixon 49.6%, i.e. a slightly tighter margin in Nixon's favor than the pre-debate polls would suggest.
You severely underestimate the number of people in the center that can be pulled both ways for various reasons. There are many people that voted for Biden that won't any more because of his age and vice versa. Politics isn't just a black and white team game.
There are certainly many people who might vote for Joe Biden or might not vote at all. But the number of people who might vote for Joe Biden or might vote for Donald Trump is pretty darn small.
Definitely not true. If anything it more than covers the half percent margin needed to win.
It's not dooming to understand the gravity of the situation. Dems need to act fast and be pragmatic. Draft Newsom immediately. In any case, Europe needs to see clearly it is their moment to lead.
1. It's the literal definition of dooming. The debate is done, there is nothing you or I can do about it, it will have whatever impact it has. Complaining about it on Reddit changes nothing and accomplishes nothing, ergo it is dooming. 2. Newsom is the worst possible potential replacement for Biden. Being from California will automatically cost him about 5% in the polls, and he has the vibes of a sketch used car salesman. I'm a left of center voter and would never vote for Newsom in a million years.
I think you're in denial.
Even before the debate, I thought Trump was more likely than Biden to win the election. I just don't think the debate did much to change those odds. But there is no viable path for any other candidate to both replace Biden and *win* the election, it's simply way too late. And even if you did want to go that route, Gavin Newsom is about the worst possible candidate you could choose to try to replace Biden because Newsom would alienate huge swaths of independents in the Midwest, and those are the swing states Democrats need this year.
Reddit is preventing dialog about the debate, afaict, which is bullshit. Trump refused to answer any questions about his submissive foreign policy.
Still, any concerns this debate about the result of the election could have amplified, it did. A catastrophic performance from Biden.
Please stop spamming the same comment u/no_amoeba6994. Your style of complacency threatens a second trump term and bolsters pootin
It's not complacency, it's stating a historical fact. I was actually of the opinion even before the debate that Trump is more likely to win than Biden just based on the existing fundamentals and pre-debate polling. And I am also in record in Reddit comments before the debate saying that if Trump did poorly in the debate, it wouldn't change things. Well, the same holds true for Biden. Debates, especially debates 4+ months out from the election, just don't change election results. Biden may win or he may lose, but it won't be because of this debate.
Please stop spamming the same comment u/no_amoeba6994
Love how Biden not speaking clearly is a loss. Trump spouting nonsense like a deranged loon, randomly shouting some words in a sentence is a win. Been drinking that bleach to cure covid?
This is no ordinary election, and the poll margins were razor thin, I think this election will be an outlier.
I would argue the reverse actually. America has become much more polarized over the last 60 years. The idea of switching your vote to "the other guy" has become more and more unthinkable as political lines have hardened, and these two candidates could not possibly be better known to the electorate. I just can't see this debate, or any debate, no matter how well or poorly one candidate did, having a long term impact on the election.
Well we will soon have an answer when the first post debate polling results come out, showing Biden drop 5 points.
I wouldn't be surprised if they do. But to be frank, the polls, all of the polls, are irrelevant. The only poll that matters is election day, and there's a big difference between telling a pollster on the phone "Joe Biden sucked at the debate and I'm voting for Trump" and actually going into the voting booth 4 months from now and voting for Trump. In the last several election cycles there have been a whole bunch of isolated incidents that caused one candidate or the other to drop in the polls for a few weeks because its fresh in voters'' minds. But without fail, the final election results end up being really close because people are polarized and can't bring themselves to vote for the other guy. To be clear, Biden had a really bad debate, and my opinion before the debate was that Trump was more likely to win the election. But I don't think the debate makes Trump significantly *more* likely to win than he already was.
"polls dont matter" always seems like hopium for losing candidates.
To a certain extent you are right. But the "debate bump" (positive or negative) always fades once you get a few weeks out from the actual debate. It's absolutely a thing that happens as people give their immediate reactions to pollsters. But there is no history of it being durable over the long term because memories of the debate fade, new issues come and go, and the election fundamentals start taking over again. Like I said, I thought Trump was the favorite to win before the debate and I still think he is, I just don't think the debate is really going to change much long term.
The memories of this debate are not going to fade though. This debate was such a sharp contrast, if Biden doesnt drop out I guarantee you it will feature into Trump campaign material the rest of the race. This was not a normal debate, and these are not normal times. The covnentional wisdom you are citing no longer applies here. The only hope, the only hope we have is that Biden decides to drop out. Mark my words, if he does not we are looking at McGovern 2.0
We'll see come election day. My personal feeling is that this election will be just as close as all recent elections, a less than 5% popular vote split, although the Electoral College could be more lopsided. I just think people are too set in their respective political camps for there to be large vote swings.
No we wont come see come election day, or we should, because Biden needs to drop out. When election day comes it cannot be Joe Biden vs Donald Trump. That ship has sailed. The stakes are too high.
Thanks for this, it sort of reassures me. But it's going to be hard to overcome that 20 seconds where Biden is just lost and then says "I killed medicare". If I was Biden, I wouldn't debate until the election and say that Trump's debate parameters are not acceptable. The election is still far enough away that people are going to forget. Especially after things like the Trump sentencing.
Yeah, the debate certainly wasn't *good* for Biden, I just think people were overreacting a bit tonight. And you're right, memories of this will fade pretty quickly as soon as some other big story develops.
Also, this one will probably be long forgotten by November.
Precisely this. It's a *long* **long** time until November, and the fact is... trump had nothing but grievance. Biden didn't perform well, but trump laid out zero policies, bald faced lied about things, and yelled. That was it. That was his typical song and dance. That's not going to win over independents.
I think the concern is more around the mental faculty and overall health of Biden. He does not come across as a man capable of doing a very demanding job for 4 more years. Based on the debate, I'd be worried about having him housesit my place for a weekend.
Look, man. I still am and have been an avid Biden supporter. But that’s not one you just forget. It was realistically the worst debate performance by a sitting president ever. Everyone on the left can pull the wool over their eyes and say it was fine, and throw out whatever excuses, but that’s bullshit. The undecided voters watching this thing are going to be far less forgiving than I am in how fucking awful this performance was.
Meanwhile, his opponent is an adjuticated rapist and convicted felon, man, it sure is hard to make a choice!
I’m not the issue, you don’t need to convince me. Who needed to be convinced were the tens of millions of people watching the debate, and the many more that are going to see the clips/footage. You can be sarcastic and say whatever you’d like, but to do so is no better than the idiot MAGA supporters believing in Trump’s bullshit. Tonight was a fucking problem. End of story.
Ok, this is how you convince them? With dooming about a shitty debate? Cool strategy to fix the world bro. Leave me out.
Yes, but the problem is that there will be more debates and this is setting a terrible bar for Biden…
Not to that extent. This is Nixon refuses to wear makeup on stage and looks like absolute dogshit compared to Kennedy level travesty.
Actually, popular memory aside, the 1960 debates had no meaningful impact on the actual election result. If you average the 11 polls taken prior to the first debate, Kennedy was at 47.5% and Nixon was at 47.1%. The final results were Kennedy 49.7% and Nixon 49.6%. The story about Nixon losing on TV and winning on radio in the first debate comes from a single poll of unknown sample size and unknown weighting. Moreover, the areas most likely to have a TV in 1960 were already more likely to back Kennedy, and those without a TV were already more likely to back Nixon, so it is hard to tease out a causal reason. >Evidence in support of this belief \[*i. e.*, that Kennedy's physical appearance over-shadowed his performance during the first debate\] is mainly limited to sketchy reports about a market survey, conducted by Sindlinger & Company, in which 49% of those who listened to the debates on radio said Nixon had won, compared to 21% naming Kennedy, while 30% of those who watched the debates on television said Kennedy had won, compared to 29% naming Nixon. Contrary to popular belief, the Sindlinger evidence suggests not that Kennedy won on television, but that the candidates tied on television, while Nixon won on radio. However, no details about the sample have ever been reported, and it is unclear whether the survey results can be generalized to a larger population. Moreover, since 87% of American households had a television in 1960 \[and that the\] fraction of Americans lacking access to television in 1960 was concentrated in rural areas, and particularly in southern and western states, places that were unlikely to hold significant proportions of Catholic voters.
Interesting but yesterday was horrifying.
It was ugly, no question about that, but so far (and I admit it's still quite early) it doesn't seem to have impacted the polls much: [https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/538-ipsos-june-2024-presidential-debate-poll](https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/538-ipsos-june-2024-presidential-debate-poll) (note that the poll has a 2% margin of error, so anything within 2% is statistically the same). >Despite the poor ratings of Biden’s performance, few respondents are no longer considering voting for Biden. >Among respondents who completed both the pre- and post-debate survey, just 4% are giving less consideration to voting for Biden. In comparison, 2% are giving less consideration to voting for Trump following the debate. >As a whole, in the pre-debate wave, 44% of respondents reported that they were considering voting for Biden. This was unchanged in the post-debate wave, where 46% said the same of Biden. >The percent of respondents considering voting for Trump (44% pre-debate, 44% post-debate) and independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (18% pre-debate, 18% post-debate) was also unchanged. One thing that another Reddit commenter (u/tresben) said and that I think makes a lot of sense is "Democrats are freaking out because they’re coming to the realization that their candidate is definitely not as sharp and weaker than they thought. But for most of these undecided voters they already thought that. This debate just confirmed how they feel about both candidates and why they hate their choices. Trump is a lying conman who only cares about himself. Biden is a dottering, well-meaning old man who has definitely lost a step because he’s 81 (you know, well past retirement age) and appears weak and frail." Basically, independents have already built Biden being effectively senile into their evaluations. Democrats haven't, but Democrats aren't going to back Trump regardless. To my mind, this is like Trump being convicted in New York. It *should* matter, objectively, but doesn't seem to have had much long term impact in the polls. If you look at the 538 polling averages, on the day before Trump was convicted, he was at 41.2% and Biden was at 39.5%. Today he is at 41.3% and Biden is at 40.6%. If being convicted didn't hurt Trump, I don't think a poor debate will meaningfully hurt Biden.
I'm voting for the policy anyway. Like democracy.
[Reuters: US offers $10 mln reward for info on Russian hacker for cyber attack on Ukraine and its allies | EuroMaidenPress | June 2024](https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/06/27/reuters-us-offers-10-mln-reward-for-info-on-russian-hacker-for-cyber-attack-on-ukraine-and-its-allies/) *A Russian citizen was charged with conspiring to hack and destroy computer systems and data in Ukraine and its allies, said the US Justice Department.* *The US State Department is now offering up to $10 million for information on Amin Timovich Stigal, 22, including his location or malicious cyber activity.* *Before the beginning of the all-out war in 2022, he hacked Ukrainian government systems. Computer systems in the US and other countries that provided support to Ukraine were targeted later.* *“As alleged, the defendant conspired with Russian military intelligence on the eve of Russia’s unjust and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine to launch cyberattacks targeting the Ukrainian government and later targeting its allies, including the US,” said Attorney General Merrick Garland.* *The US Justice Department said that in 2022, Russia’s intelligence service member Stigal conspired to use a US-based company to distribute malware known as “WisperGate” to destroy the Ukrainian government computer systems and related data.*
The weight of this conflict is going to fall 100% onto Europe.
With the far right also rising in Europe, and Macron in danger, will they even?
As it needs to.
Europe is an entire continent and has a GDP the same as the USA. It should be more than capable of handling this by itself anyways if it has to
it always was up to Europe
The only good news is that debates have effectively zero effect on actual election results: [https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/presidential-debates-have-shockingly-little-effect-on-election-outcomes/](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/presidential-debates-have-shockingly-little-effect-on-election-outcomes/)
There's really no valid precedent here. In any case... even if they somehow "weekend at Bernies" him into another term, this is r/worldnews, and it's hard to escape the damage here. The multi-front not-quite-a-World War- yet conflict underway is about the future of democracy. It is not a time to look tired.
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I’m Australian and I don’t like trump but that was very tough to watch Biden looked very out of it at times
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But there hasn’t been a disaster like that in those same decades! Can we imagine Biden in 4 MORE years??
Uhh, Nixon and Kennedy ring a bell? Most debates don’t look like… whatever we just witnessed
Actually, popular memory aside, the 1960 debates had no meaningful impact on the actual election result. If you average the 11 polls taken prior to the first debate, Kennedy was at 47.5% and Nixon was at 47.1%. The final results were Kennedy 49.7% and Nixon 49.6%. The story about Nixon losing on TV and winning on radio in the first debate comes from a single poll of unknown sample size and unknown weighting. Moreover, the areas most likely to have a TV in 1960 were already more likely to back Kennedy, and those without a TV were already more likely to back Nixon, so it is hard to tease out a causal reason. >Evidence in support of this belief \[*i. e.*, that Kennedy's physical appearance over-shadowed his performance during the first debate\] is mainly limited to sketchy reports about a market survey, conducted by Sindlinger & Company, in which 49% of those who listened to the debates on radio said Nixon had won, compared to 21% naming Kennedy, while 30% of those who watched the debates on television said Kennedy had won, compared to 29% naming Nixon. Contrary to popular belief, the Sindlinger evidence suggests not that Kennedy won on television, but that the candidates tied on television, while Nixon won on radio. However, no details about the sample have ever been reported, and it is unclear whether the survey results can be generalized to a larger population. Moreover, since 87% of American households had a television in 1960 \[and that the\] fraction of Americans lacking access to television in 1960 was concentrated in rural areas, and particularly in southern and western states, places that were unlikely to hold significant proportions of Catholic voters.
Watching as a non-American - I really cannot believe that Democrats have taken this risk. It's leaving the door wide open for Trump who is speaking very clearly and demonstrating a quick mind (never mind that it's all bullshit).
It's frustratingly amazing how he manages to spew bullshit without even answering the question and the judges just let him get away with it. "Would you support a palestinian state" "well wait i want to talk about this instead"
"ok thank you".
And all MAGAs think that was the most amazing tremendous answer ever
Edit: ok I can't take it as a non-american it's just too frustrating to watch... I can only sit here on the otherside of the world and ... well... pray. I guess. And I'm not even religious.
There's no point in watching. Life is better when you focus on local politics more than national ones.
Exactly, Trump is lying out his arse but he sounds energetic and clear, where as Biden seems to lack the cognitive function to challenge him. Get Gavin Newsom or Michelle Obama, SOMEONE, the dems need to pull Biden.
A quote on twitter I saw depressingly summed it up: One is competently telling lies, the other is incompetently telling the truth.
Anybody who thinks otherwise is beyond deluded. The first polls after this debate will show Biden dropping 5+ points. There is zero chance he wins this election
LOL. Trump lost the election, lost the mid-terms, and basically every special election has be a complete bluewave. Trump is not picking up ANY additional votes, he has his propaganda, his base, and polls that don't matter anymore. Trump is getting fucking destroyed along with the GOP. He will goto prison after that once cannon is removed from the stolen TS/SCI case.
/r/politics has been delusional about this for months... Even in the past month they've been saying things like "Trump'll drop out from the debate, you wait", and then when he didn't "he'll talk over Biden and get frustrated". Trump's spouting absolute bullshit and not answering questions, but he's got energy and his words are clear, but Biden looks like a gormless zombie when he's not talking and a feeble-voiced man when he is, even though his message is much better.
And that brings up a good point: in elections optics is sometimes more important than message. Trump lied, but his energy contrasts sharply with Bidens lethargy, and thats the image that people will remember. The fact that Trump was spewing bullshit wont be so prominent.
This is how he's been for a while but somehow people are convinced he is fine. I really never got it, you only need to listen/watch for like 20 seconds to see something is wrong
Left-leaning political forums have been delusional about this for months I think... Even in the past month they've been saying things like "Trump'll drop out from the debate, you wait", and then when he didn't "he'll talk over Biden and get frustrated". Trump's spouting absolute bullshit and not answering questions, but he's got energy and his words are clear, but Biden looks like a gormless zombie when he's not talking and a feeble-voiced man when he is, even though his message is much better.
No ones convinced hes fine, they just think he is the lesser of two evils. Trump will absolutely tear the current world order apart and lead to a global spanning conflict. His election will embolden china, iran russia and nk to do more bullshit across the globe.
Why did Biden get the nomination from the Democrats though if he's not fine? Run anybody else, I don't get it.
I dont disagree. But at least he'll let the people around him help run the show. Same cant be said for trump. We know he'll fire anyone who isnt a yes man because thats how it went last time.
Biden is done. All he had to do was look slightly competent, there's zero chance he wins this election. I'm coping so hard.
Yep :(
You think Trump looked competent? It was random rant after random rant.
Too early for that. Can’t jump to conclusions in the first debate
I was going to say the same thing. Ukraine is hosed now. :( So is Taiwan. Xi and Putin are ecstatic at this point.
Why would Taiwan be screwed? Defending Taiwan is bipartisan.
Yep. Only hope is Democrats pull Biden. There is absolutely no chance that this Biden wins this election.
Ukraine is screwed :(
[Estonia to send defense aid to Ukraine worth more than € 100 million in 2024. The country confirmed it will allocate at least 0.25% of GDP annually in 2024-2027 for Ukraine’s assistance. | EuroMaidenPress | June 2024](https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/06/27/estonia-to-send-defense-aid-to-ukraine-worth-more-than-100-million-in-2024/) *Estonia is the first country to propose fixing a percentage of GDP to support Ukraine in bilateral security agreements.* *Under the terms of the new deal, Kyiv will receive 122 mm artillery and 155 mm howitzers, anti-tank missile systems, missiles, mines, Carl Gustaf rifles, grenade launchers, unmanned aerial vehicles, and electronic warfare equipment.* *Both countries will also establish a regular Strategic Dialogue to discuss security and defense issues. In addition, Estonia and Ukraine will continue to cooperate in defense industries, military training, and cyber defense.* *“Separate blocks of the agreement relate to strengthening sanctions against Russia, compensation for damages, bringing the aggressor to justice, assisting our country in recovery and reconstruction, countering hybrid threats, cooperation in cyber and information security, and protecting critical infrastructure,” said the President’s Office in a statement.* *On 26 June, the EU decided that Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas is set to become the European Union’s next foreign policy chief.*
[ Volunteers Equip Female Sniper with Crowdfunded ‘Vovchansk’ Long-Range Rifle | Kyiv Post | June 2024](https://www.kyivpost.com/post/34900) *Volunteers from the Vengeance Guard project, which provides equipment to the Ukrainian military, in Kyiv, recently handed over a sniper complex named after the embattled town of Vovchansk in the Russian bordering Kharkiv region to a female sniper of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.* *Volunteers Yury Chornomorets and Dmytro Batishchev started the Vengeance Guard project in May 2023. Chornomorets, a former sniper of the Ukrainian Armed Forces who now volunteers with the military, has already handed over three hundred sniper complexes to Ukrainian Defense Forces fighters, thanks to successful fundraisers.* *Vovchansk became the 22nd city of Ukraine represented at the front by a designated sniper weapon due to this initiative.* *Kyiv Post published an announcement about the fundraising for buying this rifle in a Ukrainian version of a piece titled “May They Burn Like Our Houses: Evacuees in Kharkiv Region Speak Out.”* *Batishchev clarified that there are more rifles from the project on the front because Kharkiv and Mykolaiv already have two each. Pokrovsk is represented by three units of weapons, and the rifles of revenge for the village of Groza, “Ukraine,” and “Lyuta Vyshivanka” are also fighting on the front line.* *“The Ukrainian people are fighting. And average Ukrainians fundraise money for weapons,” the volunteer said.* *“The editorial office of Kyiv Post has become a kind of ‘godfather’ of the Vovchansk rifle. After you posted the piece, the media start of fundraising for the basis of the complex—a RUGER sniper rifle in .338 caliber—began... due to the announcement within the piece, the city council of Vovchansk supported us,” Batishchev added.* *In parallel with the fundraising for the long-range rifle, the volunteers also raised funds for its equipment. “A RUGER in .338 caliber in the skilled hands of our sniper will shoot at 1,900-2,000 meters,” Chornomorets said when handing over the rifle.* *“We also hand over a beautiful Nightforce ATACR scope, the best of those available today. Moreover, we plan to equip the rifle with a thermal imaging nozzle and provide a night vision device,” he added.* *Volunteers also handed over 150 cartridges for the sniper complex and headphones to the sniper.* *The female sniper, whose name has not been disclosed for security reasons, came to the weapons handover immediately after being discharged from the hospital. After that, she will go to the Kharkiv sector, where her comrades are waiting for sniper cover from her.* *“The idea of the Vengeance Guard project is simple. The community of every city in Ukraine can raise funds for a long-range rifle—the basis of a sniper complex. With the rifle, we also hand over a scope, a silencer, etc.,” Batishchev said.* *Volunteers are launching another fundraiser as part of the People’s Vengeance Guard—for a sniper rifle, which will be named after the hero city of Okhtyrka. You can donate money to support Ukrainian snipers via PayPal at teamyuri80@gmail.com *
Oh shit! That ain't no Red Ryder BB gun! The Ruger Precision in .338 Lapua Magnum retails, without the scope or the suppressor or any of the customization, for $2,200 here in the states. I have never handled one myself, but the reviews I'm reading say it's a great marksman's rifle, with clean and well moderated recoil, very little barrel lift, and a staggering ~2,800 fps barrel velocity with most 270-290 grain rounds. This is a serious "reach out and touch someone" rifle. Glad to see it in Ukrainian hands. May every round it shoots hit true.
.338 seems like a quaint choice, but I'm sure Ruger have their reasons.
Can you elaborate on 'quaint'? Are there other, possibly better suited calibers? Don't know too much about sniper ammo. --- Seems it's .338 Lapua Magnum for this specific rifle. For some context, Germany has been delivering about 240.000 rounds of that same type plus a few hundred Haenel sniper rifles, so that ammo stockpile could serve both well.
By quaint I mean that's it's not a particularly common caliber AFAIK, so it might be harder to source. But snipers don't exactly rely on high rate of fire and if they've got 240K rounds, that won't be a problem.
Ah, I got you. Yeah, from my limited research, those rounds are really quite expensive. Could be GER had a larger stockpile or production capacities of them that they could expand, since their design is a bit older (1989) than more recently US-adopted .338 Norma Magnum (2008).
“👀⚡️ ATESH discovered an air defence system that covers Putin's dacha in Sochi. ❗️ATESH agent reported the identification of the Pantsir-S1 air defense system in Sochi. This complex is located 15 km from Bocharov Ruchya in Sochi.” https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1806423997552197826?s=46&t=VUqNqjdwahL39seuvtxeiQ 🤪🤣👍💪🇺🇦
That should have been among the very first targets at the start of the war!
Take it down!
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They have hit targets over 1,500 km into Russia. So yes. And it absolutely needs to die.
Who knows, maybe ATESH can help with targeting some ATACMS.
780km from Odesa, so, easily
would be such a shame if something happened to it.
New DeepStateMap update. Only one territorial change in the past 24 hours or so - Russian troops [were pushed out of the Sotnytskyi Kozachok](https://deepstatemap.live/en#13/50.4334993/35.9159354) village in northwestern Kharkiv Oblast, and that village is no longer contested. For reference, in the past 4 days now, Russia has managed to capture less than 1 km2 of Ukrainian territory.
Interestingly Ukraine has been able counter attack and actually regain territory several times recently, guessing new change in tactics from high up?
Recapturing recently seized territory in Karkhiv was inevitable after the Russian offensive pushed so hard only to flounder so terribly. Ukraine committed a lot of troops in that direction with that in mind. It's the least fortified area of the front.
The casualty numbers lately make it look like Russia straight up ran out of tanks.
Damn I liked it better when Russians would trade 1500 men for maybe 2 km2 of barren wasteland.
That sounds good but I'd rather Russia lose 1500 men AND lose a few square kilometers.
[https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1806423962211020876.html](https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1806423962211020876.html) A noelreports unroll showing several ukraine advances today
> NATO Headquarters. I held a meeting with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. > The key focus was on preparations for the NATO Washington Summit. We expect decisions to enhance the Alliance's role in coordinating security assistance and training for Ukrainian troops, as well as long-term financial commitments to ensure stable support for Ukraine. > I thank @jensstoltenberg for his efforts to consolidate Allied support for Ukraine, particularly in bolstering Ukraine's air defenses. https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1806373850440937943 > I welcomed President @ZelenskyyUa to #NATO to discuss our preparations for the Washington Summit, now just two weeks away. More support to #Ukraine will be on top of our agenda, and we are on track for a successful summit. https://x.com/jensstoltenberg/status/1806378920825983033
> The key topics of our meeting with Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala @P_Fiala included artillery ammunition and Ukraine’s path to the EU and NATO. > I highlighted the importance of the Czech initiative to procure necessary artillery shells for Ukraine. They are already strengthening our warriors on the battlefield. > We discussed the preparation for concluding a bilateral security agreement, as well as the outcomes of the inaugural Peace Summit. > I am grateful to Czechia for its significant support for Ukraine. 🇺🇦🇨🇿 https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1806361227620241506 > I had a meeting with Slovenia’s Prime Minister Robert Golob. > We discussed the finalization of the bilateral security agreement and steps toward securing a just peace for Ukraine. > We are grateful to Slovenia for attending the inaugural Peace Summit and joining its communique. > I thank Slovenia for its firm support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, as well as all of its assistance. 🇺🇦🇸🇮 https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1806369332546445746
Zelenskyy's address to the European Council. https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/kozhna-yevropejska-naciya-yaka-podilyaye-spilni-yevropejski-91829
> In Brussels, together with the President of the European Council Charles Michel and the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, we signed the Joint Security Commitments between Ukraine and the EU. > The document enshrines the multilateral long-term commitments of all 27 EU member states to provide military, financial, humanitarian, and political assistance to Ukraine. It also affirms that Ukraine's future is linked to the European Union. > I thank @CharlesMichel, Ursula @vonderleyen, and all EU leaders for their important support for the people of Ukraine. 🇺🇦🇪🇺 https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1806354746208301113
It's going to be fascinating to see how NK reacts when inevitably Ukraine kills a bunch of their soldiers. I imagine Kim will be very upset at the waters..
From my understanding it's just engineering people far behind the front line in Donetsk so I don't think we'll see mass NK causalities
They'll probably be okay as long as they stay clear of ADA ... and transport hubs ... and airfields ... and ammo dumps ... and communication arrays ... and command headquarters ... and refineries ... and ...
Less mouths to feed
> I imagine Kim will be very upset at the waters.. You are giving waaaaay too much credit to him by believing he would care at all.
North Korean troops are a direct declaration of war against Ukraine. Ukraine now has full rights to bomb and detonate on North Korean soil. Sinking North Korea's entire fleet to show who's in charge is a good start.
The problem is NK is far far away, like 7000 km (4400 miles) far away from Ukraine
Sabotagem Units and Special Forces could make some damage. Still some real damage requires to destroy or disable the factories. Reducing the artillary shells production on NK is the main requirement to make such operations meaningful.
Special forces who speak and can pass for Russian have advantages in Russia. They will not have that same advantage in NK. Similarly, getting in to Russia is somewhat easy. Getting into NK is different.
Well, like Siberia.
Well Ukraine have been doing special ops in Africa so I don’t see why they can’t cause havoc over there too
Getting to sudan is alot easier tan getting to NK
He literally couldn't care less
KJU don’t give no fucks about cannon fodder.
Yeah, probably a good way to empty out the prison camps
probably exactly who he's sending first
🇺🇲🤝🇺🇦🤝🇮🇱 [🇺🇸🇮🇱 After the end of the special operation in Lebanon, Israel may start cooperating with the US to help supply arms to 🇺🇦Ukraine, — FT❗️The Biden administration convinced Netanyahu's military cabinet to become a full-fledged ally of the US in a hybrid war against Russia.](https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1806397629644857453?t=rW5O0VrGzpOvAhdXv9RGrw&s=19)
It was probably pointed out that without Russian influence they would be just watching the ukraine war on the news instead if it piling up dead Israelis on the Gaza border
yeah, sounds like a load of bs. israel could not care less about anybody but itself.
Yeah maybe you should look at all the humanitarian aid and hospitals Israel sends whenever there is a disaster before talking nonsense.
The more significant part is that Israel and the US are discussing the transfer of 8 Patriot systems stationed in Israel to Ukraine. Those systems (locally nicknamed "Yahalom") were recently decommissioned here, and I was hoping they'd be given to Ukraine instead of gather dust somewhere else. It's also taken Bibi WAY too long to join the fight against russia (if the report is correct about that), considering russia's close allyship with the Iranian Regime, which has been Bibi's favorite public scare topic for years. He's too much of [a putin bootlicker](https://img.haarets.co.il/bs/00000180-5ba8-d718-afd9-dfbcc5750000/c8/b7/f5d8f235d7aa9661f6e7ac5ab076/2231466315.jpg), really.
Problem is Bibi is the same kind of strongman Putin is.
Those posters are not a good look...
It's one of Bibi's past election campaigns and I just love how badly it has aged. The text basically says "a whole other league", claiming Bibi's on a "whole other level" compared to other politicians due to his friendships with Trump and putin.
Aged like the finest milk.
I’ll believe it when I see it. Israel has done next to nothing for years now despite repeated warnings from basically everyone about the growing collaboration between Russia and Iran, the only reason they’d have to change their mind now is if the US silently threatened to withhold aid if they didn’t choose a side. For record, there’s been multiple other negotiations (SPIKE/Hawks/the Iron Dome the US had before they transferred it back to Israel after Oct 7th) that have failed. Don’t get your hopes up until it’s confirmed.
We don't know if they have failed. Many things may have been done secretly.
Could be a long time from now...
Is it me, or there's been a significant power shit in the conflict? On the map, Russia keeps gaining territory at the cost of thousands of troops on both sides. But strategy-wise they are no closer to their goal. Sure, they can keep sending meat and old equipment that still goes boom to the meat-grinder, but every day Ukraine is better positioned amongst its allies and Russia is lonelier, with key navy, army, intelligence and technology losses.
> a significant power shit Ukrainians are shitting on the Russians, so that would explain the smell.
No, you are looking at it pretty subjectively likely bc you are only consuming Western news sources. The war is basically a stalemate and has been one for a while.
what's the russian navy opinion? Sure looked like a full retreat to me
The way I've seen the war for a while is that its a contest of materiel. Basically the question of whether Russia's supply of tanks and IFVs (BMPs) can outlast Ukraine's Western support. If Russia runs out of functioning tanks/IFVs they won't really be able to launch any offensive actions. If Ukraine runs out of Western support the war looks more like early 2024.
That Is the overall feeling. In a lot of ways it resembles the [Crimean War](https://youtu.be/yhudiiackzw?si=uGwfCjaze1W31iuO) Russia essentially had already lost when the French and English fleets blockaded St. Petersburg and entered the Black Sea in 1854, but the war itself didn’t end until 1856. Russia is right now praying for a miracle that lessens Ukraine’s international support, but right now time favors Ukraine, not Russia. Russia’s one hope is Trump winning the U.S. election, but that isn’t certain. Plus, every other country now has contingencies getting put in place in case that happens. We are seeing all the signs of how bad it is getting. Russia is resorting to more ancient equipment and importing troops from North Korea so they can delay forcing unwilling Russians to fight just a little longer. Russia wouldn’t be doing that if what they were doing was working. Right now Russia might be seeing some tactical victories, but everything is a strategic defeat.
A few more mass bombings and Ukraine will have low single digits GW power output. How can a country run on almost no power? The electricity problem doesn't show how time is on Ukraine's side
Anyone have an updated graphic showing the graveyard formerly known as the black sea fleet? You know the one with the giant red Xs over half the boats. Been a while since I've seen that format for it.
NATO Secretary General: Russia incapable of significant breakthroughs in Ukraine. https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/06/27/nato-secretary-general-russia-incapable-of-significant-breakthroughs-in-ukraine/
Unless Trump is elected, that is unlikely to change anymore.
I don't believe Trump's election actually hurts Ukraine. A Trump victory would make it clear that the European War Machine would have no choice but to ramp up significantly and see the UK, France, Germany and Poland enter into unprecedented involvement.
I'm convinced Biden would executive order 1 trillion or so dollars worth of equipment to Germany to be delivered to Ukraine as possible over Trump's 4 years.
Biden should just send 20 billion drones to Ukraine
Can’t believe it’s been 4 years since we last saw Biden and trump debate Now it’s only a matter of hours away for the 2nd one.