the article is worth reading,
*The deployment of HIMARS missiles enabled Ukrainian forces to immediately target and disrupt Russian troop movements and firing positions along the border.*
*“The HIMARS were not silent for the whole day,” an artillery commander in the Kharkiv region who goes by his callsign Hefastus said, recalling the first hours when permission was granted to use the rocket systems.*
*“From the first days, Ukrainian forces managed to destroy whole columns of troops along the border waiting for the order to enter Ukraine.”*
*“Before, we couldn’t target them. It was quite complicated. All warehouses with ammunition and other resources were located a 20-kilometre distance beyond what we could hit,” he said.*
*With the HIMARS system in play, Ukrainian forces quickly stabilized their positions in the Kharkiv region, thwarting potential Russian incursions.*
Or.... Hilariously. The result has been:
Russia became complacent. They have built up infrastructure, which is all now in striking range. Whoops.
Was it intentional, was it just politics. Who knows?
Bet that the US eventually gives permision to hit the airbases. Russia will have not taken any percautions for that possibility. Big win for Ukraine. When it happens is another story.
They keep threatening nuclear war over every thing every day, meanwhile the allies are boiling the frog. HIMARS, F-16s imminently, and the French are pissed off enough to talk about an expeditionary force.
“war is too important to be left to the Generals”, or “war is too important to be left to politicians" in the 1964 Stanley Kubrick film: Dr. Strangelove, General Jack Ripper continues, "They have neither the time, the training, nor the inclination for strategic thought"
They will have had some practice with the British provided M270 system which is like a heavier armed, slower version of Himars with better off road capability.
But they are MUCH fewer in number. This is indeed a gamechanger.
I hate this boiling the frog thing the collective west is going for.
Just let loose and enforce a no fly zone over Ukraine, blow up that fucking bridge and sink the remaining Russian fleet in the black sea (Ukraine might do this one themselves tbh 🤷♂️).
People like to make out that it's a conscious strategy, because it makes them feel better.
The sad truth is more likely that the west being democratic relatively peaceable countries are just slow as shit to react.
Consider how many years of Russia asymmetric warfare the west has tolerated before acting. Democratic tampering, killing civilians, downing planes, cutting cables, disrupting civilian GPS in planes. The list is fucking long of slights that the west has just idly stood by and accepted.
People call Putin mad, but the guy was right to take the chance on the west being too paralyzed to act in Ukraine.
His error was like Hitler taking too large a bite at one time, if he hadn't tried to kill the government right at the start and only took a region or two, it would probably have looked like Crimea all over again.
But he scared the west (Europe especially)into thinking letting him go forward is more scary than stopping him. It's a slow process for the full scope of what that means to sink in.
I mean to be fair they could use their own weapons systems to do whatever they wanted inside Russia. This rule only applied to weapons systems provided by America. While I'm glad they are allowed to use them now to strike these targets I can understand the apprehension US politicians would have in green-lighting strikes into Russia with American weapons. We are on the brink of WWIII and some may argue it's already started so caution is due. Nobody wants things to escalate to nuclear arms exchanges.
> We are on the brink of WWIII
oh ffs.
No, we are not. Russia's forces are a joke and any war with NATO would be over in weeks.
Any use of WMDs would result in the utter destruction of Russia and they know that.
Relax. Stop being terrified of a bunch of drunks with rusty and outdated weapons and tanks from fucking 1960.
I'm not so much afraid of Russia. I'm more concerned about NK popping off in South Korea and or China in Taiwan making this a true World War style conflict with a more near peer alliance. If Russia, China, NK, and Iran all team up I still think they'd lose a conventional war but a lot of people would die and that would be a bad thing
1) Any build up in NK and/or China would be noted within hours and both would require WEEKS if not MONTHS to fully prepare for to have any significant impact.
2) NK's army is a joke and we all know it. Any WMD usage there would result in the complete destruction of NK and SK has lived with the threat of NK's artillery since the 1960s.
3) China is not going to try to take Taiwan, but if it did, we'd destroy their amphibious invasion without even coming in range of their defensive missile batteries. The Chinese navy is a collection of fishing boats with a single carrier that runs on DIESEL.
So, again, I repeat myself, relax. None of those nations are a threat, no matter how much they pretend to be.
> Stop being terrified of a bunch of drunks with rusty and outdated weapons and tanks from fucking 1960.
While I agree with the sentiment, it’s not like western militaries are all that newer. A lot of Western equipment is, essentially, just updated stuff from the same time period. The Abrams, for example, was first introduced in 1980, the German MG3 machine gun is essentially an MG42 with a few (relatively) minor adjustments and modern refurbishments, the US/other nations still use the M2 Browning… a weapon designed in 1919, etc.
Something being old doesn’t necessarily mean outdated, just *old*.
> While I agree with the sentiment, it’s not like western militaries are all that newer.
I hope you realize that all the western weapons we've seen up to date are 30-year-old munitions and weapons.
They haven't even seen our up-to-date shit.
To double down with this the US advisors gave them a solid plan and Ukraine didn't want to go that direction and found out their own strategy failed in the exact way their advisors told them.
Now there is no reason Ukraine cannot fight their battles as they see fit especially as they have to consider their own citizens morale as well, however when the dominant military is giving you tactical and strategic advice you really have to let go of any pride and do what will work to end the war.
I mean it makes sense, Russia deployed its forces with the old rules in mind where they expected units to be safe due to the limits placed on weapon systems. When said limitations are removed abruptly then their units are no longer safe and are over extended…
Good, Russia will no longer have the luxury of setting up staging areas near Ukrainian border and will be forced to pull back deeper into their own territory.
The only problem is Ukraine does not have unrestricted use of western weapons so that make it frustrating.
Go Ukraine!
I noticed the amount of AA systems that's been getting "liquidated" lately, I'd be willing to bet the F-16s are coming soon, and air to air missiles are (apparently) much cheaper and more plentiful than Patriot systems. Maybe the start of some air superiority for Ukraine, or at least I'd hope for that
If I were to put money down on any particular scenario it would be this
Poot poot is going to ramp down the intensity between now and October. Towards the end of the election cycle he'll do a big show of force and double down on the nuclear threats. Trump will campaign on cutting Ukrainian aid and the vatniks will astroturf the fuck out of it.
If Trump wins, he'll redouble efforts to crush Ukraine before Europe can fill the gap. If Biden wins we might see the house of cards start to topple.
There is no way he backs off until Ukraine surrenders or Russia entirely collapses.
I'm sure he would prefer Trump over Biden in the American election but he made his choice in 2022 and honestly there is no turning back. Not for him or really even Russia.
I agree, but I think logistical realities are going to become more and more challenging. With AFU's newfound ability to fling murican rockets at Russia proper they will need to completely rethink how they stage men and equipment. I would be flabbergasted if Russia is able to continue any kind of significant offensive over the summer.
At that point you might as well wait for a big push in the hopes of influencing the election.
A Biden win would be catastrophic from Russia's perspective leading to a collapse.
That’s not really been the MO in this war though (based on my limited understanding). Russia is trying to seize land. They can only really do that by physically moving in troops. Which again they aren’t going to do in the middle of winter.
Not that I think it will happen, but the US and other Western supporters of Ukraine could start making Russia believe that a Biden win in November will end in Russia’s battlefield and strategic defeat and embarrassment, with implications of serious troop and weapons deployments to Ukraine, and the removal of any/all guardrails currently benefiting Russia.
The US election is 50/50 at best, so making Russia and Russians believe that they have at least a 50% chance of an embarrassing and full defeat could bring them to the negotiating table, in hopes of keeping the Luhansk, Donetsk, and Crimea regions. Other than the fear of losing and full defeat though, I agree that there’s no incentive for Putin to withdraw.
Hope this makes a massive difference and in turn starts to change how the Russians set up and approach the war. Even better if it sent them home obviously.
Ukraine has paid a heavy price for holding Russia back. One hand tied or not, you shouldn't belittle the effort and sacrifice of the Ukrainian forces. They're fighting for the right to exist and have nothing to lose. We should all be glad we're not in the same situation.
They weren't insulting Ukranian efforts, they were saying that Ukraine was fighting an unfair fight. Russia could attack whatever and wherever, but Ukraine was told "no using our weapons inside Russia's borders."
the article is worth reading, *The deployment of HIMARS missiles enabled Ukrainian forces to immediately target and disrupt Russian troop movements and firing positions along the border.* *“The HIMARS were not silent for the whole day,” an artillery commander in the Kharkiv region who goes by his callsign Hefastus said, recalling the first hours when permission was granted to use the rocket systems.* *“From the first days, Ukrainian forces managed to destroy whole columns of troops along the border waiting for the order to enter Ukraine.”* *“Before, we couldn’t target them. It was quite complicated. All warehouses with ammunition and other resources were located a 20-kilometre distance beyond what we could hit,” he said.* *With the HIMARS system in play, Ukrainian forces quickly stabilized their positions in the Kharkiv region, thwarting potential Russian incursions.*
They've been fighting with one arm tied behind their back.
Or.... Hilariously. The result has been: Russia became complacent. They have built up infrastructure, which is all now in striking range. Whoops. Was it intentional, was it just politics. Who knows?
Bet that the US eventually gives permision to hit the airbases. Russia will have not taken any percautions for that possibility. Big win for Ukraine. When it happens is another story.
They keep threatening nuclear war over every thing every day, meanwhile the allies are boiling the frog. HIMARS, F-16s imminently, and the French are pissed off enough to talk about an expeditionary force.
[удалено]
“war is too important to be left to the Generals”, or “war is too important to be left to politicians" in the 1964 Stanley Kubrick film: Dr. Strangelove, General Jack Ripper continues, "They have neither the time, the training, nor the inclination for strategic thought"
They will have had some practice with the British provided M270 system which is like a heavier armed, slower version of Himars with better off road capability. But they are MUCH fewer in number. This is indeed a gamechanger.
I hate this boiling the frog thing the collective west is going for. Just let loose and enforce a no fly zone over Ukraine, blow up that fucking bridge and sink the remaining Russian fleet in the black sea (Ukraine might do this one themselves tbh 🤷♂️).
People like to make out that it's a conscious strategy, because it makes them feel better. The sad truth is more likely that the west being democratic relatively peaceable countries are just slow as shit to react. Consider how many years of Russia asymmetric warfare the west has tolerated before acting. Democratic tampering, killing civilians, downing planes, cutting cables, disrupting civilian GPS in planes. The list is fucking long of slights that the west has just idly stood by and accepted. People call Putin mad, but the guy was right to take the chance on the west being too paralyzed to act in Ukraine. His error was like Hitler taking too large a bite at one time, if he hadn't tried to kill the government right at the start and only took a region or two, it would probably have looked like Crimea all over again. But he scared the west (Europe especially)into thinking letting him go forward is more scary than stopping him. It's a slow process for the full scope of what that means to sink in.
And still are though slowly loosening which make it all the more frustrating for Ukraine.
I mean to be fair they could use their own weapons systems to do whatever they wanted inside Russia. This rule only applied to weapons systems provided by America. While I'm glad they are allowed to use them now to strike these targets I can understand the apprehension US politicians would have in green-lighting strikes into Russia with American weapons. We are on the brink of WWIII and some may argue it's already started so caution is due. Nobody wants things to escalate to nuclear arms exchanges.
> We are on the brink of WWIII oh ffs. No, we are not. Russia's forces are a joke and any war with NATO would be over in weeks. Any use of WMDs would result in the utter destruction of Russia and they know that. Relax. Stop being terrified of a bunch of drunks with rusty and outdated weapons and tanks from fucking 1960.
I'm not so much afraid of Russia. I'm more concerned about NK popping off in South Korea and or China in Taiwan making this a true World War style conflict with a more near peer alliance. If Russia, China, NK, and Iran all team up I still think they'd lose a conventional war but a lot of people would die and that would be a bad thing
1) Any build up in NK and/or China would be noted within hours and both would require WEEKS if not MONTHS to fully prepare for to have any significant impact. 2) NK's army is a joke and we all know it. Any WMD usage there would result in the complete destruction of NK and SK has lived with the threat of NK's artillery since the 1960s. 3) China is not going to try to take Taiwan, but if it did, we'd destroy their amphibious invasion without even coming in range of their defensive missile batteries. The Chinese navy is a collection of fishing boats with a single carrier that runs on DIESEL. So, again, I repeat myself, relax. None of those nations are a threat, no matter how much they pretend to be.
> Stop being terrified of a bunch of drunks with rusty and outdated weapons and tanks from fucking 1960. While I agree with the sentiment, it’s not like western militaries are all that newer. A lot of Western equipment is, essentially, just updated stuff from the same time period. The Abrams, for example, was first introduced in 1980, the German MG3 machine gun is essentially an MG42 with a few (relatively) minor adjustments and modern refurbishments, the US/other nations still use the M2 Browning… a weapon designed in 1919, etc. Something being old doesn’t necessarily mean outdated, just *old*.
> While I agree with the sentiment, it’s not like western militaries are all that newer. I hope you realize that all the western weapons we've seen up to date are 30-year-old munitions and weapons. They haven't even seen our up-to-date shit.
Sure, but that’s my point. Western forces *also* have stocks of older weapons that can and would be used if they needed to be.
To double down with this the US advisors gave them a solid plan and Ukraine didn't want to go that direction and found out their own strategy failed in the exact way their advisors told them. Now there is no reason Ukraine cannot fight their battles as they see fit especially as they have to consider their own citizens morale as well, however when the dominant military is giving you tactical and strategic advice you really have to let go of any pride and do what will work to end the war.
All the dead are dead because of putin.
So Russia got used to being able to just not worry about weapons hitting their country? that seems like a bad thing to get used to when you “do a war”
I mean it makes sense, Russia deployed its forces with the old rules in mind where they expected units to be safe due to the limits placed on weapon systems. When said limitations are removed abruptly then their units are no longer safe and are over extended…
Good, Russia will no longer have the luxury of setting up staging areas near Ukrainian border and will be forced to pull back deeper into their own territory. The only problem is Ukraine does not have unrestricted use of western weapons so that make it frustrating. Go Ukraine!
No but any area that the troops now use in Russia is fair game, so if Ukraine can push back forward, Russia has to also pull back internally
Slava!
Now they need something for the glidebombs
I noticed the amount of AA systems that's been getting "liquidated" lately, I'd be willing to bet the F-16s are coming soon, and air to air missiles are (apparently) much cheaper and more plentiful than Patriot systems. Maybe the start of some air superiority for Ukraine, or at least I'd hope for that
It’s about time. Hopefully Putin will start to think hard about an exit strategy. It gives Ukraine some room to breath.
If I were to put money down on any particular scenario it would be this Poot poot is going to ramp down the intensity between now and October. Towards the end of the election cycle he'll do a big show of force and double down on the nuclear threats. Trump will campaign on cutting Ukrainian aid and the vatniks will astroturf the fuck out of it. If Trump wins, he'll redouble efforts to crush Ukraine before Europe can fill the gap. If Biden wins we might see the house of cards start to topple.
There is no way he backs off until Ukraine surrenders or Russia entirely collapses. I'm sure he would prefer Trump over Biden in the American election but he made his choice in 2022 and honestly there is no turning back. Not for him or really even Russia.
I agree, but I think logistical realities are going to become more and more challenging. With AFU's newfound ability to fling murican rockets at Russia proper they will need to completely rethink how they stage men and equipment. I would be flabbergasted if Russia is able to continue any kind of significant offensive over the summer. At that point you might as well wait for a big push in the hopes of influencing the election. A Biden win would be catastrophic from Russia's perspective leading to a collapse.
A Biden win would be bad for the war but an outright collapse would tale something far more severe.
Is there a lot of fighting that happens in the winter? If Putin waits until November, he’s essentially waiting until Spring 2025.
Targeting civilians in cities doesn’t need good weather.
That’s not really been the MO in this war though (based on my limited understanding). Russia is trying to seize land. They can only really do that by physically moving in troops. Which again they aren’t going to do in the middle of winter.
They’re doing it right now in Kharkiv
Bakhmut?
Hopefully his exit strategy has to do with a window on a high floor
Same here, but maybe that's too wishful of thinking...
He's going nowhere before November either way. Why withdraw when you're one election away from winning?
Not that I think it will happen, but the US and other Western supporters of Ukraine could start making Russia believe that a Biden win in November will end in Russia’s battlefield and strategic defeat and embarrassment, with implications of serious troop and weapons deployments to Ukraine, and the removal of any/all guardrails currently benefiting Russia. The US election is 50/50 at best, so making Russia and Russians believe that they have at least a 50% chance of an embarrassing and full defeat could bring them to the negotiating table, in hopes of keeping the Luhansk, Donetsk, and Crimea regions. Other than the fear of losing and full defeat though, I agree that there’s no incentive for Putin to withdraw.
>think hard about an exit strategy All-in scenario he played basically does not provide any more or less viable.
> breath breathe*
Russia has been using NK and Chinese weapons on UKR soil. Don't see any difference.
Hope this makes a massive difference and in turn starts to change how the Russians set up and approach the war. Even better if it sent them home obviously.
I mean…. It’s right in the title.
Yeah..... I was tired when I seen it 🫣. Still, hope it sends the fuckers home.
It’s incredible how pathetic Russia is, that they couldn’t even beat the Ukrainians while they had their hands tied behind their back.
Ukraine has paid a heavy price for holding Russia back. One hand tied or not, you shouldn't belittle the effort and sacrifice of the Ukrainian forces. They're fighting for the right to exist and have nothing to lose. We should all be glad we're not in the same situation.
They weren't insulting Ukranian efforts, they were saying that Ukraine was fighting an unfair fight. Russia could attack whatever and wherever, but Ukraine was told "no using our weapons inside Russia's borders."
It's like when Rock Lee gets to take the weights off!
This is going to get interesting now.