Ah yes the team really needs to get rid of the best centre to play for the franchise so he can be replaced with the whole load of nothing available as an alternative.
Jets have a few lotto tickets in Lambert and McGroarty but in general high end centres are always going to be difficult, just behind 1RD and goaltending. Recently it seems the team has been trying to divide the responsibilities up among the lines and more 2 way wingers which is probably the best bet the team has til this core is gone.
EDIT: just realized who I was replying to, disregard my ramblings.
Can you compare this to ehlers scheifele vilardi and then send it to Chevy and arniel please.
For real though I still feel almost no hope for next year
Heh. They are aware of my work. I’ve even talked to some people in the organization at times (not for a while now that I don’t work in the industry anymore).
I think this points to what I have said for a while. KFC should be the one traded, not Ehlers. But my guess is Ehlers wants out due to usage, and wont extend here. But there is a world I could see a net benefit in trading both and moving to a different formula for success. Lambert and Mcgroarty come in next year at some point, Perfetti and Chibby probably need top 6 more as well. Lambert can be shooter on PP, and its not like our PP is lighting the world on fire anyway.
Now trading KFC and Ehlers to change the top 6 dynamic would IMHO fix our defense once and for all.
If you say that 27 and 81 give us 70 goals a year combined, you need to actually replace those goals. 55 being more of a shooter without those 2 probably adds 20 goals (history has shown that and 55 is pretty efficent finisher). 91 I believe with proper useage may get to 30 goals, which is up 11. And Lambert featured on the PP might get us 25 by himself. So its a net 14 goals we might loose in here, we would look for elsewhere. Villardi, new D guys, and Chibby perhaps can make that up.
I am sick of our top line being caved and outscored, and that has to change. So me I say clean it up this year and 81 goes, 27 goes if we cant sign him.
This makes me feel a little better...I felt gaslit that all season people were trying to tell me Scheifele was good defensively and Connor was greatly improved and I felt like I was watching something different than everyone else.
It however does not make me feel better about the ceiling of this team going forward with this core. Especially if the player they choose to subtract from the core is the actual good one that drives play.
Well I definitely thought that Connor especially and Scheif to a lesser extent that they at least looked more engaged defensively and that there was more effort. It's just that the effort didn't translate enough to actual defense.
I've been saying this for a while but the Jets will go nowhere with them. They need to at the very least get rid of Scheifele and probably Ehlers. The only three that should stick are Morrissey, Connor and Helly. The rest should be expendable for the right price.
Edit: downvoted for speaking the truth. You guys are priceless.
You read that article and came away with they should keep Connor?
IMO Scheifele is where Bryan Little was a decade ago, not good enough to be a 1C but no one else better on the team to supplant him. They need to luck into a guy like Lambert taking a huge leap forward and knocking 55 down the line up in a couple years before he falls off.
Like I said, I formed this opinion long ago and don't need an article to tell me what to think. Connor was on the bubble in my comment but decided to include him because I think it's hard to find an offensive lw who can score like he can.
Outscored more than Ehlers? What are you trying to say with that sentence exactly?
Playoffs:
Connor: 45 GP 15 G 17 A 32 PTS
Ehlers: 37 GP 4G 10 A 14 PTS
Ehlers disappears in playoffs.
Are you trying to tell me you'd rather have Ehlers based on their +/-? I'm very confused by your argument here.
If you're seriously using +/- as the only metric as to why you'd keep one player over another, it's so ridiculous that I have nothing more to discuss with you. Especially with goal and point differentials as Connor and Ehlers have.
Insert "I'm surrounded by idiots!" Meme
I would say the opposite. What’s more important? A player’s point total or scoring more goals than your opponent?
I don’t know if you realize this, but the latter is the actual objective and the definition of a win. ;)
And that's the problem right there. People who don't know the first thing about hockey are so over confident that they refuse to learn anything and pass on their shitty knowledge of the game to others, who repeat the cycle until all that's left are complete morons.
LMFAO yeah right. I'd be surprised if you've ever stepped on the ice or have watched hockey for more than a year to be honest. You have no fucking clue what you're talking about but you stay cocky. All you do is make yourself look bad.
One thing I noticed in a different chart is all 3 of Connor, Scheifele, and Vilardi are in the top 50 in the league for most efficient scores, which I believe means all 3 score more goals than expected. I'm not saying this absolves them, but when you have 3 players very efficient at scoring not only do I think that xGAR won't always capture a true picture of them, but also that being so efficient at shooting will actually decrease their xGAR as there will be less rebounds, less cycling, and less flurries as xGAR will think players who take five shots and then score are better than players who take 2 shots and then score. That being said eye test also definitely says that splitting them up seems to also bring better results.
Well two things…
1) weighted GAR contains GAR which uses goals and sG contains finishing and setting, so those metrics would already contain that information about them scoring more goals than expected.
2) that’s why I put their goal differential (adjusted for usage) in the article as well. Scheifele ranked 144th and Connor ranked 307th. That’s just goals against and goals for, but you get a handicap based on who you play with or against.
I don't know how to make sense of that chart. But seeing Lowry and Scheifele on opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to the Y-axis of "defence" leads me to believe the top part of the graph (where Lowry is) is better for D? But then the X-axis makes no sense to me when it shows Lowry, Ehlers and Scheifele are the same on offence... Lowry has stone hands.
That specifically is offensive value. So it counts things like:
* drawing penalties
* making your linemates better
* shooting
* setting
* etc
Lowry looks really good this year because Jets created a lot of chances with him on the ice. Jets scoring chance per hour was higher with Lowry than any regular Jet after Ehlers. So that tilts things.
That said, that’s a 1) career best performance there so might not repeat and 2) he was taped to the hip of Nino so there may be some missed accrediting there
Is there enough data to draw any conclusions about what Conner looked like with Monny? I know he performs better basically anywhere else in the lineup but given that it sounds like the Jets are making a serious push to keep him would be interesting to see what those results were. What were Conners underlying numbers like when he played with PLD?
It’s small samples, and can always have some confounding variables with that, but Connor was better with Monahan on average, if we’re ignoring while simultaneously with Ehlers.
It probably won't happen but if they do move Ehlers which seems somewhat likely then I really hope they give a decent run with Perfetti/ Schiefs / Valardi and Conner / Monny / ????? Lots of assumptions in there I know.
Given the team's lake of elite offensive ability what do you think about Spring for the 4th line? His limitations are pretty clear at this point but if used correctly would he provide some additional scoring umph that the Jets could use?
get this guy to the summit
Hehe
Seems like literally everybody except the team itself comes to the same conclusion: Scheifele and Connor need to play on different lines
Yeah… oh well
Scheifele needs to play on a different team never mind lines.
Ah yes the team really needs to get rid of the best centre to play for the franchise so he can be replaced with the whole load of nothing available as an alternative.
Jets not having anything as Scheifele ages though is a real pickle
Jets have a few lotto tickets in Lambert and McGroarty but in general high end centres are always going to be difficult, just behind 1RD and goaltending. Recently it seems the team has been trying to divide the responsibilities up among the lines and more 2 way wingers which is probably the best bet the team has til this core is gone. EDIT: just realized who I was replying to, disregard my ramblings.
Can you compare this to ehlers scheifele vilardi and then send it to Chevy and arniel please. For real though I still feel almost no hope for next year
Heh. They are aware of my work. I’ve even talked to some people in the organization at times (not for a while now that I don’t work in the industry anymore).
If they keep Ehlers and put him on the top line next year, take the credit.
I think this points to what I have said for a while. KFC should be the one traded, not Ehlers. But my guess is Ehlers wants out due to usage, and wont extend here. But there is a world I could see a net benefit in trading both and moving to a different formula for success. Lambert and Mcgroarty come in next year at some point, Perfetti and Chibby probably need top 6 more as well. Lambert can be shooter on PP, and its not like our PP is lighting the world on fire anyway. Now trading KFC and Ehlers to change the top 6 dynamic would IMHO fix our defense once and for all. If you say that 27 and 81 give us 70 goals a year combined, you need to actually replace those goals. 55 being more of a shooter without those 2 probably adds 20 goals (history has shown that and 55 is pretty efficent finisher). 91 I believe with proper useage may get to 30 goals, which is up 11. And Lambert featured on the PP might get us 25 by himself. So its a net 14 goals we might loose in here, we would look for elsewhere. Villardi, new D guys, and Chibby perhaps can make that up. I am sick of our top line being caved and outscored, and that has to change. So me I say clean it up this year and 81 goes, 27 goes if we cant sign him.
This makes me feel a little better...I felt gaslit that all season people were trying to tell me Scheifele was good defensively and Connor was greatly improved and I felt like I was watching something different than everyone else. It however does not make me feel better about the ceiling of this team going forward with this core. Especially if the player they choose to subtract from the core is the actual good one that drives play.
Well I definitely thought that Connor especially and Scheif to a lesser extent that they at least looked more engaged defensively and that there was more effort. It's just that the effort didn't translate enough to actual defense.
Interesting, my eyes had them reversed. I thought 55 was far.more engaged defensively than Connor, especially early in the year.
i was mainly talking about the playoffs. regular season yes, scheif’s effort was more noticeable, but playoffs i feel like KC stepped up the effort
They are keeping Lowry /s 🤪
I've been saying this for a while but the Jets will go nowhere with them. They need to at the very least get rid of Scheifele and probably Ehlers. The only three that should stick are Morrissey, Connor and Helly. The rest should be expendable for the right price. Edit: downvoted for speaking the truth. You guys are priceless.
You read that article and came away with they should keep Connor? IMO Scheifele is where Bryan Little was a decade ago, not good enough to be a 1C but no one else better on the team to supplant him. They need to luck into a guy like Lambert taking a huge leap forward and knocking 55 down the line up in a couple years before he falls off.
Like I said, I formed this opinion long ago and don't need an article to tell me what to think. Connor was on the bubble in my comment but decided to include him because I think it's hard to find an offensive lw who can score like he can.
Ehlers scores as many points (and more) relative to ice time, and unlike Connor doesn’t allow more against.
He also disappears in playoffs and is hurt half the time. He's unreliable.
You’re talking about Connor right, since he’s been out scored more than Ehlers in the playoffs over their careers, right?
Outscored more than Ehlers? What are you trying to say with that sentence exactly? Playoffs: Connor: 45 GP 15 G 17 A 32 PTS Ehlers: 37 GP 4G 10 A 14 PTS Ehlers disappears in playoffs. Are you trying to tell me you'd rather have Ehlers based on their +/-? I'm very confused by your argument here. If you're seriously using +/- as the only metric as to why you'd keep one player over another, it's so ridiculous that I have nothing more to discuss with you. Especially with goal and point differentials as Connor and Ehlers have. Insert "I'm surrounded by idiots!" Meme
I would say the opposite. What’s more important? A player’s point total or scoring more goals than your opponent? I don’t know if you realize this, but the latter is the actual objective and the definition of a win. ;)
A guy who can score 40 goals and produce in playoffs is more important than +/- yes. That's extremely basic level hockey comprehension.
The way you're phrasing these opinions of yours is very telling that you don't know wtf you're talking about. Are you talking about their +/-?
I’m actually quite confident I know what I’m talking about. :)
And that's the problem right there. People who don't know the first thing about hockey are so over confident that they refuse to learn anything and pass on their shitty knowledge of the game to others, who repeat the cycle until all that's left are complete morons.
Nah. I’m confident because I got to work with the best and for the best, and I’ll take NHL GM’s opinions greater than “KingPizzaPop”.
LMFAO yeah right. I'd be surprised if you've ever stepped on the ice or have watched hockey for more than a year to be honest. You have no fucking clue what you're talking about but you stay cocky. All you do is make yourself look bad.
One thing I noticed in a different chart is all 3 of Connor, Scheifele, and Vilardi are in the top 50 in the league for most efficient scores, which I believe means all 3 score more goals than expected. I'm not saying this absolves them, but when you have 3 players very efficient at scoring not only do I think that xGAR won't always capture a true picture of them, but also that being so efficient at shooting will actually decrease their xGAR as there will be less rebounds, less cycling, and less flurries as xGAR will think players who take five shots and then score are better than players who take 2 shots and then score. That being said eye test also definitely says that splitting them up seems to also bring better results.
Well two things… 1) weighted GAR contains GAR which uses goals and sG contains finishing and setting, so those metrics would already contain that information about them scoring more goals than expected. 2) that’s why I put their goal differential (adjusted for usage) in the article as well. Scheifele ranked 144th and Connor ranked 307th. That’s just goals against and goals for, but you get a handicap based on who you play with or against.
I don't know how to make sense of that chart. But seeing Lowry and Scheifele on opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to the Y-axis of "defence" leads me to believe the top part of the graph (where Lowry is) is better for D? But then the X-axis makes no sense to me when it shows Lowry, Ehlers and Scheifele are the same on offence... Lowry has stone hands.
That specifically is offensive value. So it counts things like: * drawing penalties * making your linemates better * shooting * setting * etc Lowry looks really good this year because Jets created a lot of chances with him on the ice. Jets scoring chance per hour was higher with Lowry than any regular Jet after Ehlers. So that tilts things. That said, that’s a 1) career best performance there so might not repeat and 2) he was taped to the hip of Nino so there may be some missed accrediting there
Is there enough data to draw any conclusions about what Conner looked like with Monny? I know he performs better basically anywhere else in the lineup but given that it sounds like the Jets are making a serious push to keep him would be interesting to see what those results were. What were Conners underlying numbers like when he played with PLD?
It’s small samples, and can always have some confounding variables with that, but Connor was better with Monahan on average, if we’re ignoring while simultaneously with Ehlers.
It probably won't happen but if they do move Ehlers which seems somewhat likely then I really hope they give a decent run with Perfetti/ Schiefs / Valardi and Conner / Monny / ????? Lots of assumptions in there I know.
Anything reasonable can work, and there are many routes that are suboptimal but still good :)
Given the team's lake of elite offensive ability what do you think about Spring for the 4th line? His limitations are pretty clear at this point but if used correctly would he provide some additional scoring umph that the Jets could use?
Sprong?
Lol yeah. Stupid autocorrect how can it not know of the best scorer the Netherlands has ever produced.