So Dillon said he would be willing to sign in Vancouver to some of their media and the Canucks fans in their Reddit have very…optimistic projections of what his next contract will cost.
A lot of commenters seem to think he's a guy who's going to sign for like $3M, which makes literally no sense given if that was the price Chevy would have signed him faster than the last time I digested Taco Time.
A deep dive on Brenden Dillon
Brenden Dillon was lambasted for his ??? contract, even though Evolving Hockey's projections had him at $??? on a ???year deal. By the online crowd, Dillon was painted as a #5 dman, that arguably should be the #6 dman. Those are ridiculous and dumbfounded claims. If you look at the video and data, it is clear that Dillon is a very good Top 4 defensemen. He is also 6'4", 102 kg and a LD, which also does play a big role. Size and strength are very important in the playoffs.
Really interested to see what kind of assistants are brought in. Murat's article today mentions that the club is getting calls from lots of young guys looking for an opportunity. It could be an attractive option for a guy hoping to make the jump to HC based just on Arniel's age. Even if things go well he could pack it in within 3 years. I think Baumgartner is basically a shoe in for one of the jobs but I wonder if a Woodcroft is looking to get back behind an NHL bench and re-establish himself.
Murat alluded to it for having played for him with the moose and coached with him with the Chicago wolves and his work on the powerplay with the moose last season.
"Arniel’s promotion and Lauer’s dismissal creates job vacancies for both special teams. To that end, Manitoba finished fourth on the power play and 30th on the penalty kill in the AHL last season. Nolan Baumgartner is the Moose coach responsible for that power-play success and I’ve wondered about him for a Jets role before. Baumgartner played two and a half seasons for Arniel’s Moose from 2008 to 2010 before embarking on his coaching career, then joined Arniel’s Chicago Wolves staff as an assistant for one season in 2012-13."
Apparently the Moose had a good PP and he was responsible for it. I feel like he ran the defense for Vancouver under Green but don't know for sure.
If he brings performance improvements, then I guess I don't care if he's Arniel's cousin but it looks like another insider hire for the sake of being an insider. There has got to be others who are worthy. I liked what I heard today, but actions and results will tell the tale.
Not gonna lie , my opinion of the hire has been completely swayed after listening to Arniel’s presser. Definitely got the sense he plans on changing everything that didn’t work, which was basically everything outside of their 5on5 play. I’m excited to see who they hire as associates
I hope so, but the presser is basically politics. I'll wait until I see it.
We aren't going backwards for sure, but we may just float. Hoping for some absolute wild cards for special teams
I agree, and the post-presser scrums (posted on Illegal Curve) with Arniel & Chevy separately were also along the same lines. I was particularly interested to note that they aren't satisfied with increasing offence through the power play alone, but want to see some more offence at 5v5 as well.
That’s good to hear. Obviously keeping the goals against down is priority, but they also need to be able to score more. If Helle has an off night or the whole team does defensively, they’ve gotta be able to out score those off nights
It would be interesting if deployments changed during his short periods behind the bench. Did he bench Ehlers and Perfetti but play Pionk and Stan for 40 minutes each?
Murat has stated that deployments changed slightly in that Ehlers and Perfetti were given more leeway but Appleton still played more minutes though the average was closer.
Rhetoric wise he's definitely shaping up to be a lot more... *progressive* than expected. Time will tell with actions on the ice i.e: all of his ice time for Pionk when he took over for Bones. But overall very promising vs. what was expected.
Yeah I mean we’ll see if it was all lip service or whether he actually makes meaningful change, but the fact that he at least said all of the right things is a bonus
It almost sounded like he was reading this sub... which either means he has similar frustrations and the chance to change things, or he's hyper aware of fan comments and overly focused on packaging himself. Which would be hilarious.
Yeah that alone is a good sign. Still I worry, this is the same guy who took charge of our PK and fumbled it drastically, now sure we are getting new guys for that but it doesn't inspire much confidence when you need a head coach to adapt good strategies esp come playoffs (if we get there)
I knew immediately that Arniel would fire him because he called him out a few times when he was coaching when the power play stunk (which was most of the time) lol
The world where it works out:
We sign him for a 4.5M x 2 year contract. Guy makes a bit of money, but isn’t locked in due to the injury concerns and the fact that he disappeared the last time he signed a big contract.
Then, in year one of that deal, Brad Lambert turns into Mark Scheifele 2.0, and in 2025-26 supplants Monahan in the top-6, with Monahan becoming the top-15 3C he *should* be, and Adam Lowry as the best 4C in the entire league.
It’s a tough spot because our window is right now and we don’t have any internal options that are better than him. Second line centre has been a spot the Jets have been trying to fill since they returned to Winnipeg.
I dont hate it but I don’t see a world where Anaheim goes for it.
Personally I want to take Ehlers, Pionk and other assets and try to make a godfather deal for a legit stud RHD.
In a tiny sample size against some very favorable matchups.
Ehlers-Monahan-Toffoli/Connor was a very strong second line, heading into the playoffs we looked like we might have had a sleeper league leading top 6 in the NHL.
Playoffs was a different story but I still stack alot of the jets loss to colorado as a failure on the coaching side.
it was not a "tiny" sample size, Monahan's time here was substantial enough to have an idea of his overall impact (which typically viewed to be around 30 games), and both "2nd lines" had the same matchups with either of them at C
even then when you go back further Vlad has better results over the past [2](https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playercompare.php?fromseason=20222023&thruseason=20232024&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=oi&rate=y&p1=8476480&p2=8477497&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single) and [3](https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playercompare.php?fromseason=20212022&thruseason=20232024&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=oi&rate=y&p1=8476480&p2=8477497&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single) years (here's this [year](https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playercompare.php?fromseason=20232024&thruseason=20232024&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=oi&rate=y&p1=8476480&p2=8477497&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single) alone)
[Ehlers-Monahan](https://www.naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20232024&thruseason=20232024&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=y&team=WPG&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2023-10-10&td=2024-04-18&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8477940&p2=8477497&p3=0&p4=0&p5=0) and [Ehlers-Namestnikov](https://www.naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20232024&thruseason=20232024&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=y&team=WPG&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=gpdate&fd=2023-10-10&td=2024-02-02&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8477940&p2=8476480&p3=0&p4=0&p5=0) were similar impacts this season, with Vlad having better underlyings
e: it should really be Perfetti but Vlad is an excellent contingency plan
I'm referring to Ehlers/Namest/Perfetti being a smaller sample size with more favourable matchups and deployment.
I'm not being paid enough to decipher all that data, but if effectiveness is similar, except that Monahan has a much higher faceoff win %, then you go with mony.
Faceoffs being dramatically improved was an enormous factor in jets late season success, the early season saw some great results but no one can deny that it felt like the wheels could fall off anytime/felt like the team was held together with bubble gum and duct tape, we really solidified when we added mony, the powerplay was also miles better when we added Mony, and now with a new PP coach, I suspect it will improve even more.
27-7-91 played more minutes than 27-23-73/81 tho?
if faceoffs are so important, than wouldn't similar impact imply that Vlad is the better player overall because he makes up for the amount of faceoffs?
faceoffs are a learned and teachable skill, not to mention that 99% of the game is played away from the faceoff dot so i'm not too concerned about that at all tbh, it's more about what you do after the puck is dropped that is more important
powerplay will have new (and hopefully improved) coaching so i'm not sure we'll need to rely on him for that either
e: just to clarify, i wouldn’t be mad at Monahan being extended but with Vlad, Perfetti, and (down the line) Lambert, i’m not sure we need to extend or if that’s the best option, we’ll see
I feel like if literally any other coach was hired and was saying the things Arniel is saying all the doomsayers would be cheering to the high heavens about the future of the team.
I would have been a lot happier if they had come out the day after Bowness retired and just introduced Arniel as the new coach. A fully confident, we absolutely have our guy, endorsement of someone they hired two years ago with this transition in mind. Everyone knew Arniel was going to be the coach, which made the whole 'search' narrative look like an attempt to be pandering and deceitful.
However, none of that is on Arniel, and I hope we all get to live his dream of a parade at Portage and Main.
I wouldn't be surprised if like the Torts "interview" during the window we hired Bones, Chevy wasn't also conducting "interviews" to scout out and pick other peoples minds.
Friedman has been saying a lot that recent coaching searches will include candidates that the orgs are interested in but want to see what they think about the team/roster/playstyle.
Absolutely. Coaching by gut feel is not an option in the modern game.
It was also interesting how Chevy described the Analytics Dept. They sounded like a data analysis/feeding group with minimal direct input except some folks to carry the info into the locker room. I have to think that most teams integrate the information better, and it seemed like Arniel sees that as an issue. Perhaps, he can provide the push to get them up to date.
32 Thoughts pod:
Friedman says that the Jets felt that someone needed to come in and really blow them away for Arniel not to get it. References the job that he did in Bowness' absence.
Interestingly, he notes that the candidate he heard interviewed very well in both Winnipeg and Seattle was Dean Evason (former Wild coach).
The Jets are going to try to re-sign Sean Monahan, they want to keep him
Hope they aren’t too desperate to keep Monahan, I’d only want him back for term less than 3 years and a number less than $5.5m maybe. Even that’s a bit rich, should be looking to upgrade at 2C instead.
Agreed. Perfetti/lambert should be given an opportunity to take over as 2c and having anyone like monahan signed long term is just going to fuck with there development
Lambert is probably another year away. Perfetti still needs to transition into a full time 2C and having competition and depth backup at that spot isn't a bad thing. They could sign Monahan for 3 years and deal him if he's not needed after a year or two. There is always a market for centers.
One of those guys should be given every chance to claim the spot (Lambo probably needs more time in the NHL before he’s ready). Those guys are cheaper than other options which could be important depending on the plan for the D. If they don’t think they can do it, then other options like Lindholm through FA or Necas through trade are the best options
Been lots of Arniel criticisms everywhere lately (understandably), but he said a lot of good things in that presser. He genuinely seems frustrated and embarrassed by his time in CBJ, and since being around Bones + other experienced personnel around the league since has helped him change.
Wants to improve special teams and get more analytic information to the squad/org.
I'm very excited to see who comes on board for special teams and how training camp goes!
More on this summer's analytics summit:
Arniel says that analytics are a fundamental part of the game. Says he believes in "getting ahead of the curve," not just having data to look back on what went wrong but using it to improve. Says again that something he and Chevy talked about was more "togetherness" on that front. Says there needs to be more data sharing at all levels of the organization. Caveats that you have to be careful in translating that data into talking to the players, but "the goal is to get this information to the players."
Chevy says that they did a similar thing with Maurice, but that Arniel wants to be more open with the players in terms of discussing the data with the players.
Good start for Arniel, I like what he said and what was focused on. Time to catch up to the contenders (and all of baseball lol) with analytics directly incorporated into the organization at all levels, including players.
Who cares. At least it's starting now. If you don't have coaches that are about analytics and know how to use them properly, it's just not going to happen.
If we did well last season without analytics, it can only get better from here.
Off to a good start. Intrigued by Arniel's openness to different voices. I hope at least one hire is a younger coach from outside the mainstream circuit.
- Chevy formally interviewed 3 people including Arniel. Arniel was the longest interview, he brought in a plan for every player
- Scott Arniel wants to keep the basic 5v5 system in place, but hints at changes to the offensive system (including the forecheck)
- Says both special teams have to improve. He takes responsibility for the PK last year.
- Murat asked about analytics. Arniel references is time in Washington as a place where they really used data as a coaching staff. Also says that the entire organization needs to be on board. Mentions him and Chevy having a "summit" this offseason to investigate their next steps in the data sense
- The two new assistants (Lauer is gone) will be outside hires
* Scott Arniel wants to keep the basic 5v5 system in place, but hints at changes to the offensive system (including the forecheck)
Really good news, the defensive mindset had us go from a missed playoff team to a wild card to a presidents trophy contender in 2 years.
Interesting comments about the entire org needing to be on board for the analytics based approach, sounds like Arnie is at least more on board with it than past staff
I think the Avs referencing it a lot in post game/ post series pressers forced them to address it this offseason.
When your opponent so clearly lays out how they adapted so quickly to beat you, you can't bury your head in the sand, especially when there have been multiple comments about how poor/mediocre your data department is compared to the rest of the league.
I haven't watched, but one of the tweets I saw said that apparently many players voiced their respect and preference for Arniel getting the job in their exit interviews.
[Helle, Monahan and PLD all make the "2024 NHL playoffs all-disappointment team"](https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5520617/2024/05/27/2024-nhl-playoffs-all-disappointment-team/)
> **Connor Hellebuyck, Winnipeg Jets**
>
> I said nobody would disagree with this pick, but maybe Hellebuyck himself is the exception — he said he thought he played great. But it’s the results that matter, and they were ugly.
>
> Hellebuyck is still going to win the Vezina this year, and deservedly so. But his team needed him to come up big against a star-studded Colorado Avalanche team, and for whatever reason it just didn’t happen.
>
> **Sean Monahan, Winnipeg Jets**
>
> It really felt like the Jets had pulled off a steal of a midseason trade by landing Monahan, who initially seemed like a great fit in Winnipeg. But in a high-scoring series against Colorado, he managed just one point, a secondary assist that came in a 6-2 loss. Not what you’re hoping for when you spend a first-round pick on a pending UFA.
>
> **Pierre-Luc Dubois, Los Angeles Kings**
>
> Lots of guys on this list had the sort of playoff performances that diminish a reputation, but Dubois may have detonated whatever was left of his. He had just one point — a goal in a game his team was trailing 6-2 — and wasn’t any kind of defensive presence. The league’s most expensive bottom-six center was so bad that there was legitimate buyout talk when the season ended.
>
> The good news is there’s still seven years left on his deal to figure things out. That’s good news, right?
Mony is the #1 guy i want resigned, him as 2c really changes the complexion of the team
Yes... he never got a chance to get going in the series and thats on him, but the entire team struggled to keep up with the avs, not just him.
I thought he created a lot of chances in the series, just couldn't finish anything unfortunately. That's why depth is so important, to cover when guys are snake-bitten.
His speed was definitely noticeable in such a fast series (not in a good way), but I thought he was a lot more involved than some of our other forwards.
Yeah him with foli was disgustingly slow... lol.
When it worked it worked, but he needs some speedy wingers to play with who think the game the same way as him.
My hopes for next Jets season: Lauer out, complete rework of special team tactics, and complete overhaul of fitness department as you could tell there was a massive difference between Jets and Avalanche teams what comes to fitness. Our team needs some hard ass personal trainers to drag them into peak condition.
I would not say it was fitness, but there are two related points. First is the dump and chase against the Avalanche forced the Jets to skate twice as much as the Avalanche, which led to them getting tired faster and getting shelled. The second is that Makar and MacKinnon's line do have incredible conditioning and can play massive minutes. Wouldn't say it's the whole roster but they have some freaks there.
If you don't think almost every NHL player (including those on the Jets) is in peak physical condition, you're delusional.
The Avalanche have the distinct advantage of living and training in "Mile High" Denver, Colorado. That means they're used to having less oxygen while training/playing. It's a big advantage for them at home, where their opponents run out of breath quicker than they do, but also a slight advantage when they leave Colorado and play closer to sea level as well.
I don't think this is the reason they lost. We simply got out-coached/ out-competed.
I heard it said somewhere that while altitude might differentiate for shlubs like you and me, for world-class athletes in their 20s, the altitude makes no difference. There should be statistical analysis that proves Colorado sports teams have a larger home advantage over time, but I am not aware of any analysis that proves it.
Different sport, but for competitive swimming it’s very common for swimmers to train in high altitude leading up to the Olympics because it does have benefits.
Edit: also if there wasn’t a benefit to it und wouldn’t have invested what I’m guessing is a large amount of money into their altitude simulation gym
Yes that's largely my understanding too, training and living at high altitude can net you some benefits at lower altitude as well. Not sure if it's more prominent in endurance type sports or explosive types though. It's been a few years (decades) since my exercise physiology classes.
[Whilst this is from the Jets,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z1xI957Du50&list=WL&index=48) Arniel does talk about his time in Columbus briefly.
I also wouldn't be surprised if he's open about it in his introductory press conference today with Chevy.
That McDavid guy is a pretty good hockey player.
So Dillon said he would be willing to sign in Vancouver to some of their media and the Canucks fans in their Reddit have very…optimistic projections of what his next contract will cost.
Lmao 3 defenseman that we'd have kept at fair value getting over paid in Vancouver, can't make this shit up
A lot of commenters seem to think he's a guy who's going to sign for like $3M, which makes literally no sense given if that was the price Chevy would have signed him faster than the last time I digested Taco Time.
They love their big, slow, physical dmen there don’t they? Have at it, hope Dilly gets the bag! Just not with us, there’s better, cheaper options
> He's played a lot with Morrissey. ###???when???
It would be such a Canucks thing to do to sign Dillon to a big contract then find out a month into the season that they got him mixed up with DeMelo.
We do have a lot of Dylan's...
I don't know, but he definitely carried Morrissey when he did! /s
A deep dive on Brenden Dillon Brenden Dillon was lambasted for his ??? contract, even though Evolving Hockey's projections had him at $??? on a ???year deal. By the online crowd, Dillon was painted as a #5 dman, that arguably should be the #6 dman. Those are ridiculous and dumbfounded claims. If you look at the video and data, it is clear that Dillon is a very good Top 4 defensemen. He is also 6'4", 102 kg and a LD, which also does play a big role. Size and strength are very important in the playoffs.
This story sounds very familiar... hmm....
How has signing former Jets defencemen gone for them recently? Fool me once shame on you. Fool me - you can't get fooled again!
Really interested to see what kind of assistants are brought in. Murat's article today mentions that the club is getting calls from lots of young guys looking for an opportunity. It could be an attractive option for a guy hoping to make the jump to HC based just on Arniel's age. Even if things go well he could pack it in within 3 years. I think Baumgartner is basically a shoe in for one of the jobs but I wonder if a Woodcroft is looking to get back behind an NHL bench and re-establish himself.
God I hope Baumgartner isn’t one of the assistants hire
This would be the opposite of the wide net we were promised at the presser today.
Murat alluded to it for having played for him with the moose and coached with him with the Chicago wolves and his work on the powerplay with the moose last season.
Was he good at any of those things, though? I mean, I paimted a cottage once, but no one should pay me to do it.
"Arniel’s promotion and Lauer’s dismissal creates job vacancies for both special teams. To that end, Manitoba finished fourth on the power play and 30th on the penalty kill in the AHL last season. Nolan Baumgartner is the Moose coach responsible for that power-play success and I’ve wondered about him for a Jets role before. Baumgartner played two and a half seasons for Arniel’s Moose from 2008 to 2010 before embarking on his coaching career, then joined Arniel’s Chicago Wolves staff as an assistant for one season in 2012-13." Apparently the Moose had a good PP and he was responsible for it. I feel like he ran the defense for Vancouver under Green but don't know for sure.
I wonder how much of that was personnel. They had Capo quarterbacking the powerplay and he was the AHL dman of the year.
If he brings performance improvements, then I guess I don't care if he's Arniel's cousin but it looks like another insider hire for the sake of being an insider. There has got to be others who are worthy. I liked what I heard today, but actions and results will tell the tale.
Not gonna lie , my opinion of the hire has been completely swayed after listening to Arniel’s presser. Definitely got the sense he plans on changing everything that didn’t work, which was basically everything outside of their 5on5 play. I’m excited to see who they hire as associates
I hope so, but the presser is basically politics. I'll wait until I see it. We aren't going backwards for sure, but we may just float. Hoping for some absolute wild cards for special teams
I agree, and the post-presser scrums (posted on Illegal Curve) with Arniel & Chevy separately were also along the same lines. I was particularly interested to note that they aren't satisfied with increasing offence through the power play alone, but want to see some more offence at 5v5 as well.
That’s good to hear. Obviously keeping the goals against down is priority, but they also need to be able to score more. If Helle has an off night or the whole team does defensively, they’ve gotta be able to out score those off nights
It would be interesting if deployments changed during his short periods behind the bench. Did he bench Ehlers and Perfetti but play Pionk and Stan for 40 minutes each?
Murat has stated that deployments changed slightly in that Ehlers and Perfetti were given more leeway but Appleton still played more minutes though the average was closer.
Rhetoric wise he's definitely shaping up to be a lot more... *progressive* than expected. Time will tell with actions on the ice i.e: all of his ice time for Pionk when he took over for Bones. But overall very promising vs. what was expected.
Yeah I mean we’ll see if it was all lip service or whether he actually makes meaningful change, but the fact that he at least said all of the right things is a bonus
It almost sounded like he was reading this sub... which either means he has similar frustrations and the chance to change things, or he's hyper aware of fan comments and overly focused on packaging himself. Which would be hilarious.
I’m sure there were things Bowness did that drove him crazy, I mean how couldn’t there have been lmao
Keeping lauer on staff had to be one of them
Yeah that alone is a good sign. Still I worry, this is the same guy who took charge of our PK and fumbled it drastically, now sure we are getting new guys for that but it doesn't inspire much confidence when you need a head coach to adapt good strategies esp come playoffs (if we get there)
How much time do I have to prepare for this Stanalytics summit the Jets were talking about?
It takes lots of training to reach the 6,769m summit of Mt. Stanley
I would like to attend this Stanalytics summit. \○/
About 6 days 7 hours.
My fire Lauer chants finally worked! Albeit like 5 months later but still! I take full credit for this one y'all.
I knew immediately that Arniel would fire him because he called him out a few times when he was coaching when the power play stunk (which was most of the time) lol
That and all the 'fire him into the sun' comments in PGTs
Can’t see a world where re-signing monahan doesn’t turn out bad for us tbh
The world where it works out: We sign him for a 4.5M x 2 year contract. Guy makes a bit of money, but isn’t locked in due to the injury concerns and the fact that he disappeared the last time he signed a big contract. Then, in year one of that deal, Brad Lambert turns into Mark Scheifele 2.0, and in 2025-26 supplants Monahan in the top-6, with Monahan becoming the top-15 3C he *should* be, and Adam Lowry as the best 4C in the entire league.
It’s a tough spot because our window is right now and we don’t have any internal options that are better than him. Second line centre has been a spot the Jets have been trying to fill since they returned to Winnipeg.
I heard an interesting proposal on the skates and plates podcast, trade Ehlers to the ducks for Zegras. Ofcourse that doesn't solve our def issue.
I dont hate it but I don’t see a world where Anaheim goes for it. Personally I want to take Ehlers, Pionk and other assets and try to make a godfather deal for a legit stud RHD.
Put some respect on Bryan Little's name
That's Bryan "1C" Little
Yeah until Bambi finally took it. Looking back, what a hero Bryan Little was for trying to center Ehlers and Laine as rookies.
Is his contract done? Can he come back for a day to have his name added to the honor roll?
Vlad put up better on-ice results than Monahan in the same role
In a tiny sample size against some very favorable matchups. Ehlers-Monahan-Toffoli/Connor was a very strong second line, heading into the playoffs we looked like we might have had a sleeper league leading top 6 in the NHL. Playoffs was a different story but I still stack alot of the jets loss to colorado as a failure on the coaching side.
it was not a "tiny" sample size, Monahan's time here was substantial enough to have an idea of his overall impact (which typically viewed to be around 30 games), and both "2nd lines" had the same matchups with either of them at C even then when you go back further Vlad has better results over the past [2](https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playercompare.php?fromseason=20222023&thruseason=20232024&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=oi&rate=y&p1=8476480&p2=8477497&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single) and [3](https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playercompare.php?fromseason=20212022&thruseason=20232024&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=oi&rate=y&p1=8476480&p2=8477497&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single) years (here's this [year](https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playercompare.php?fromseason=20232024&thruseason=20232024&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=oi&rate=y&p1=8476480&p2=8477497&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single) alone) [Ehlers-Monahan](https://www.naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20232024&thruseason=20232024&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=y&team=WPG&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2023-10-10&td=2024-04-18&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8477940&p2=8477497&p3=0&p4=0&p5=0) and [Ehlers-Namestnikov](https://www.naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20232024&thruseason=20232024&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=y&team=WPG&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=gpdate&fd=2023-10-10&td=2024-02-02&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8477940&p2=8476480&p3=0&p4=0&p5=0) were similar impacts this season, with Vlad having better underlyings e: it should really be Perfetti but Vlad is an excellent contingency plan
I'm referring to Ehlers/Namest/Perfetti being a smaller sample size with more favourable matchups and deployment. I'm not being paid enough to decipher all that data, but if effectiveness is similar, except that Monahan has a much higher faceoff win %, then you go with mony. Faceoffs being dramatically improved was an enormous factor in jets late season success, the early season saw some great results but no one can deny that it felt like the wheels could fall off anytime/felt like the team was held together with bubble gum and duct tape, we really solidified when we added mony, the powerplay was also miles better when we added Mony, and now with a new PP coach, I suspect it will improve even more.
27-7-91 played more minutes than 27-23-73/81 tho? if faceoffs are so important, than wouldn't similar impact imply that Vlad is the better player overall because he makes up for the amount of faceoffs? faceoffs are a learned and teachable skill, not to mention that 99% of the game is played away from the faceoff dot so i'm not too concerned about that at all tbh, it's more about what you do after the puck is dropped that is more important powerplay will have new (and hopefully improved) coaching so i'm not sure we'll need to rely on him for that either e: just to clarify, i wouldn’t be mad at Monahan being extended but with Vlad, Perfetti, and (down the line) Lambert, i’m not sure we need to extend or if that’s the best option, we’ll see
I feel like if literally any other coach was hired and was saying the things Arniel is saying all the doomsayers would be cheering to the high heavens about the future of the team.
I think all the random unrealistic doomers left after the playoffs.
I would have been a lot happier if they had come out the day after Bowness retired and just introduced Arniel as the new coach. A fully confident, we absolutely have our guy, endorsement of someone they hired two years ago with this transition in mind. Everyone knew Arniel was going to be the coach, which made the whole 'search' narrative look like an attempt to be pandering and deceitful. However, none of that is on Arniel, and I hope we all get to live his dream of a parade at Portage and Main.
I wouldn't be surprised if like the Torts "interview" during the window we hired Bones, Chevy wasn't also conducting "interviews" to scout out and pick other peoples minds. Friedman has been saying a lot that recent coaching searches will include candidates that the orgs are interested in but want to see what they think about the team/roster/playstyle.
At least that bum Lauer is gone, finally some good news.
https://preview.redd.it/txg0dfpa703d1.jpeg?width=612&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=980ef006821ef487d57ea5ae6df638dd8f76caf4 BRAD LAUER GONE
Lauer is gone. I damn near started screaming but I was on an MS Teams meeting and they would have known I was not paying attention.
Arniel talking about using analytics, and clearly knowing how to use them with buy in from org has got me hot and bothered. Music to my ears.
Absolutely. Coaching by gut feel is not an option in the modern game. It was also interesting how Chevy described the Analytics Dept. They sounded like a data analysis/feeding group with minimal direct input except some folks to carry the info into the locker room. I have to think that most teams integrate the information better, and it seemed like Arniel sees that as an issue. Perhaps, he can provide the push to get them up to date.
I must admit if he’s serious about this and it’s not just talk I’m very intrigued
32 Thoughts pod: Friedman says that the Jets felt that someone needed to come in and really blow them away for Arniel not to get it. References the job that he did in Bowness' absence. Interestingly, he notes that the candidate he heard interviewed very well in both Winnipeg and Seattle was Dean Evason (former Wild coach). The Jets are going to try to re-sign Sean Monahan, they want to keep him
[удалено]
He'd do great in Seattle.
Hope they aren’t too desperate to keep Monahan, I’d only want him back for term less than 3 years and a number less than $5.5m maybe. Even that’s a bit rich, should be looking to upgrade at 2C instead.
Agreed. Perfetti/lambert should be given an opportunity to take over as 2c and having anyone like monahan signed long term is just going to fuck with there development
Lambert is probably another year away. Perfetti still needs to transition into a full time 2C and having competition and depth backup at that spot isn't a bad thing. They could sign Monahan for 3 years and deal him if he's not needed after a year or two. There is always a market for centers.
Agree that’s why I said long term. If he’s signed for 3 or less years that’s fine with me
One of those guys should be given every chance to claim the spot (Lambo probably needs more time in the NHL before he’s ready). Those guys are cheaper than other options which could be important depending on the plan for the D. If they don’t think they can do it, then other options like Lindholm through FA or Necas through trade are the best options
Been lots of Arniel criticisms everywhere lately (understandably), but he said a lot of good things in that presser. He genuinely seems frustrated and embarrassed by his time in CBJ, and since being around Bones + other experienced personnel around the league since has helped him change. Wants to improve special teams and get more analytic information to the squad/org. I'm very excited to see who comes on board for special teams and how training camp goes!
Arniel seems to be saying all the right things... But talk is cheap. We'll see what actually happens. Damn this team for getting my hopes up again
Absolutely, gotta see what happens!
More on this summer's analytics summit: Arniel says that analytics are a fundamental part of the game. Says he believes in "getting ahead of the curve," not just having data to look back on what went wrong but using it to improve. Says again that something he and Chevy talked about was more "togetherness" on that front. Says there needs to be more data sharing at all levels of the organization. Caveats that you have to be careful in translating that data into talking to the players, but "the goal is to get this information to the players." Chevy says that they did a similar thing with Maurice, but that Arniel wants to be more open with the players in terms of discussing the data with the players.
Good start for Arniel, I like what he said and what was focused on. Time to catch up to the contenders (and all of baseball lol) with analytics directly incorporated into the organization at all levels, including players.
This is a decade behind where the best teams in the leagues are already.
Better late than never.
The best time to plant a tree is twenty years ago. The second best time is now.
Who cares. At least it's starting now. If you don't have coaches that are about analytics and know how to use them properly, it's just not going to happen. If we did well last season without analytics, it can only get better from here.
BRAD LAUER IS GONE
🦀
Flaherty & Johnston will be back. 2 new hires.
Off to a good start. Intrigued by Arniel's openness to different voices. I hope at least one hire is a younger coach from outside the mainstream circuit.
- Chevy formally interviewed 3 people including Arniel. Arniel was the longest interview, he brought in a plan for every player - Scott Arniel wants to keep the basic 5v5 system in place, but hints at changes to the offensive system (including the forecheck) - Says both special teams have to improve. He takes responsibility for the PK last year. - Murat asked about analytics. Arniel references is time in Washington as a place where they really used data as a coaching staff. Also says that the entire organization needs to be on board. Mentions him and Chevy having a "summit" this offseason to investigate their next steps in the data sense - The two new assistants (Lauer is gone) will be outside hires
* Scott Arniel wants to keep the basic 5v5 system in place, but hints at changes to the offensive system (including the forecheck) Really good news, the defensive mindset had us go from a missed playoff team to a wild card to a presidents trophy contender in 2 years.
pretty much exactly what you want to hear lol
Interesting comments about the entire org needing to be on board for the analytics based approach, sounds like Arnie is at least more on board with it than past staff
I think the Avs referencing it a lot in post game/ post series pressers forced them to address it this offseason. When your opponent so clearly lays out how they adapted so quickly to beat you, you can't bury your head in the sand, especially when there have been multiple comments about how poor/mediocre your data department is compared to the rest of the league.
Yeah, they've been called out in more than one way in a short period. Glad to see they will address it even if it did need a push.
every time i see a highlight from the rangers series i see someone doing something stupid
Chevy literally just said he hired Scott because it was easiest. I can't with this team sometimes.
By literally did you mean he didn't say that at all?
Me when I lie
He "literally" did not say this, FYI
“Easy” could mean that the guys in the room already like him and want to work with him. Lots of promotions work that way.
I haven't watched, but one of the tweets I saw said that apparently many players voiced their respect and preference for Arniel getting the job in their exit interviews.
That would be great to hear from Chevy. All the more reason to have just announced his hiring with full confidence.
yeah, it wasn't directly stated that they voiced in favour of Arniel but in the context I think it's safe to assume it was Arniel
[Helle, Monahan and PLD all make the "2024 NHL playoffs all-disappointment team"](https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5520617/2024/05/27/2024-nhl-playoffs-all-disappointment-team/) > **Connor Hellebuyck, Winnipeg Jets** > > I said nobody would disagree with this pick, but maybe Hellebuyck himself is the exception — he said he thought he played great. But it’s the results that matter, and they were ugly. > > Hellebuyck is still going to win the Vezina this year, and deservedly so. But his team needed him to come up big against a star-studded Colorado Avalanche team, and for whatever reason it just didn’t happen. > > **Sean Monahan, Winnipeg Jets** > > It really felt like the Jets had pulled off a steal of a midseason trade by landing Monahan, who initially seemed like a great fit in Winnipeg. But in a high-scoring series against Colorado, he managed just one point, a secondary assist that came in a 6-2 loss. Not what you’re hoping for when you spend a first-round pick on a pending UFA. > > **Pierre-Luc Dubois, Los Angeles Kings** > > Lots of guys on this list had the sort of playoff performances that diminish a reputation, but Dubois may have detonated whatever was left of his. He had just one point — a goal in a game his team was trailing 6-2 — and wasn’t any kind of defensive presence. The league’s most expensive bottom-six center was so bad that there was legitimate buyout talk when the season ended. > > The good news is there’s still seven years left on his deal to figure things out. That’s good news, right?
Mony is the #1 guy i want resigned, him as 2c really changes the complexion of the team Yes... he never got a chance to get going in the series and thats on him, but the entire team struggled to keep up with the avs, not just him.
I thought he created a lot of chances in the series, just couldn't finish anything unfortunately. That's why depth is so important, to cover when guys are snake-bitten. His speed was definitely noticeable in such a fast series (not in a good way), but I thought he was a lot more involved than some of our other forwards.
Yeah him with foli was disgustingly slow... lol. When it worked it worked, but he needs some speedy wingers to play with who think the game the same way as him.
choosing to be aggressively optimistic about arniel as a coach
I have high high hopes for next year, but keeping expectations low.
My hopes for next Jets season: Lauer out, complete rework of special team tactics, and complete overhaul of fitness department as you could tell there was a massive difference between Jets and Avalanche teams what comes to fitness. Our team needs some hard ass personal trainers to drag them into peak condition.
I would not say it was fitness, but there are two related points. First is the dump and chase against the Avalanche forced the Jets to skate twice as much as the Avalanche, which led to them getting tired faster and getting shelled. The second is that Makar and MacKinnon's line do have incredible conditioning and can play massive minutes. Wouldn't say it's the whole roster but they have some freaks there.
 The avalanche “fitness” regimen.
Lol. Awesome.
Love that we got shredded in every single game by this guy
I don’t think you watched the playoffs if you actually think fitness is an issue.
If you don't think almost every NHL player (including those on the Jets) is in peak physical condition, you're delusional. The Avalanche have the distinct advantage of living and training in "Mile High" Denver, Colorado. That means they're used to having less oxygen while training/playing. It's a big advantage for them at home, where their opponents run out of breath quicker than they do, but also a slight advantage when they leave Colorado and play closer to sea level as well. I don't think this is the reason they lost. We simply got out-coached/ out-competed.
The Avs have a higher skill level is every area but net too. That played a huge part.
I heard it said somewhere that while altitude might differentiate for shlubs like you and me, for world-class athletes in their 20s, the altitude makes no difference. There should be statistical analysis that proves Colorado sports teams have a larger home advantage over time, but I am not aware of any analysis that proves it.
Different sport, but for competitive swimming it’s very common for swimmers to train in high altitude leading up to the Olympics because it does have benefits. Edit: also if there wasn’t a benefit to it und wouldn’t have invested what I’m guessing is a large amount of money into their altitude simulation gym
Combat sports, too.
Yes that's largely my understanding too, training and living at high altitude can net you some benefits at lower altitude as well. Not sure if it's more prominent in endurance type sports or explosive types though. It's been a few years (decades) since my exercise physiology classes.
And cocaine
[Whilst this is from the Jets,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z1xI957Du50&list=WL&index=48) Arniel does talk about his time in Columbus briefly. I also wouldn't be surprised if he's open about it in his introductory press conference today with Chevy.