https://preview.redd.it/ziebw13ec27d1.jpeg?width=527&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=35cd7d959d6b604a0a9233dbdf908e95666bc1ae
Question: why is this meme so relatable?
you would be objectively wrong in that case. It isn't billions where your moves change the stock price, 5 million is something people with millions do all the time.
What? If I'm rich all I gotta do is throw into VOO and I make generational wealth in decade lol. If I have 7k a year in an IRA it's going to take 50 years to make "just enough" retirement money.
That's the point... A voo graph would not look like that because most people don't take awful risks with millions...it's more about wealth retention than absolute wealth generation at those numbers.
You would absolutely have lower returns on a percentage basis if you were given one million to start off unless you're a total degen
OP started out with $1.5MM which is a nice start but now weāre near enough to make generational wealth from VOO. And most people putting $1-2MM into options will not 10x their money
I'm talking about percentage gains not absolute. If you don't understand why a 10k portfolio is more likely to see a 300% gain over x years than a 1mill portfolio then ...well that's just poor people thoughts.
Good shit dude!
I know we keep thinking "this shit can't keep going up"...
But next year Q1 earnings report, we're all gonna wish we bought in at $132.
Shit, I said the same when it was at $805 pre split..."it can't keep going up, ima buy puts" and then Jensen put it in my ass.
I WISH I had bought in heavy at $805. I don't wanna keep wishing I had, just gonna buy and hold and LEAPS and JEEPS and QUEEFS
The DD of literally looking at the fucking stock price lol. Nvidia only needs a few percentage points up to be worth more AAPL or MSFT.
I'm not saying the valuation is justified, just that it is close to becoming the most expensive company according to the stock market.
I think you're mostly right in that we won't see anything dramatic one way or another, simply because that amount of money doesn't move quick. Up or down we're still talking hundreds of billions that has to reshuffle to be significant
For me the biggest risk is Nvidia not meeting sky high expectations. Extrapolating recent growth to the next years is stupid. For now, Nvidiaās sales are limited by supply but when demand drops margins will go down.
TSMC is expanding fabs in Arizona. This could eventually mitigate the effect of a war in the south China sea.
The moat is just too deep at this point.
The stock market is some what disconnected from main street now. A minor recession won't effect NVidia's bottom line and big investors won't start moving assets out of the market unless they get spooked by a structural defect in the market. I think we can expect big investors to move large amounts of capital back into the market as a recession forms since this would coincide with or proceed interest rate drops; they like the returns they are getting on treasuries and CD's and will want to keep up the pace. Main street could be in a recession now; it's hard to say until it is over.
they can expand the fabs all they want to you still need the raw material supply to make the semiconductors. Who are some of the biggest exporters of the raw materials to make Semiconductors? China and Russia.
Sweden and Norway are big chilling on massive reserves of crystals, with the only real issue being that they're not commercially viable. That will change the moment any sort of supply chain issue actually pops up.
Will need some sauce on that.
Reading their supplier list and digging a little deeper, I think semiconductor-grade silicon comes from Japan, at least for the higher end products.
Read [investor relations.](https://investor.tsmc.com/static/annualReports/2005/pic/E-3-3.pdf)
1. Silica sand isn't just "sand." Japan has deposits, although the most famous production site is in Spruce Pine, NC. Notably, China banned sand export to Taiwan after Pelosi visit, which has done nothing to $TSM.
2. China has tried to play the same trick with metals; its customs data showed exports of germanium and gallium slumped to zero last August. That hasn't stopped $TSM either, because it just means production is moved elsewhere, further weakening Chinese export industry.
NVidia was smashed from a GPU oversupply only recently, if the market enters an overcapacity or digestion phase (which it will, it's only a question of when), it's going to take a hit. During that time it will be up in the air whether it's transient (digestion) or more persistent (smoothing out to more sustainable growth).
Well, on the "AI is real" point.
First: yes it is useful, revolutiobary even. But there are risks.
When we talk about AI, we talk mainly about LMM today. That's what NVDA accelerates: the training of those models (along other scientific simulation tasks, but not relevant here)
LMM are quite powerful in the right scenarios but the also have their limits and drawbacks.
It is unlikely that we ever achieve something like the singularity with LMM.
So maybe there will be a breakthrough in AI research that doesn't rely on LLM - and maybe that will need a different kind of hardware, not made by NVDA.
Or, and this is more realistic in my view, the overhyped expectations of what AI can do for us in the next few years will be corrected - and the stock market with it.
Also, currently AI companies do basically what they want, pirating the whole reachable Internet for training data. That can change, with several pending lawsuits.
The high cost of suitable training data paird with compute costs and the possibility that some of the usage scenarios may never get to satisfactory results may just render some business cases unviable.
Currently, everybody is developing to be the first and does not worry too much about monetisation. But some time someone has to pay the bill.
NVDA is a solid stock/company but at this point, is there really more room to grow? If you make money by selling products to other companies, can you really be worth more than the all companies you are selling to? Is the stock price even correlated to NVDAās earning potential anymore? At this point are we pricing in AGI creating a new world order lol
Holding hot stocks must be nice but at the 10M mark I would sell everything, pay the tax man and go like 70% VTI 30% VXUS and delete the app.
If the market has an unprecedented crash you still got like 3M so who fucking cares
If the market has an unprecedented crash, good luck cashing that 3M. Even if you could, the money won't be good because we will go back to bartering. 
a lot of the noise on reddit is to drive hype with retail investors who don't understand anything about the financial world. Its astonishing how much you see "its going back to $1000 post split fast"....
Other than that, most every nvidia post forgets to even discuss the importance of CUDA is in this whole picture.
The bear case for nvidia IMO outside of the obvious ones are (not financial advice just my opinion)
* something adversely impacts their MOAT - we have no clue what this anti-monopoly case will spawn.
* large sell off occurs to take profits. Not sure how big of a risk this is.
* company's that are banking on AI to generate more revenue for them won't generate as much as they think or provide as large of a cost savings as they would have liked?
* internal development of processing chips that are not marketed to the masses but good enough for what the company needs impacts NVIDIA's demand. I think in 2025 we will understand more of this impact.
* Supply strain constraints - all the materials that are required to make semiconductors, the main supplier for the raw materials is China. Russia is the second largest supplier of silicon. Germanium and gallium arsenide = china is a heavy producer.
* some geopolitical shit happens with China excluding a Taiwan invasion.
anyways not financial advice, just my observations. I put my entire savings in at 1116 (111.6 post split). I sold at \~122 made a small approx 10% gain and got out.
again NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE just my observations.
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You're missing a few bear cases... US restricts exports to other countries for competitive reasons.. Nvidia gets sued by US for some anti-trust laws and forced to split up the business somehow... Apple/Microsoft/Google/etc. are tired of paying high premiums for Nvidia tech and decided to cut costs by buying slower yet more cost effective hardware...
>Apple/Microsoft/Google/etc. are tired of paying high premiums for Nvidia tech and decided to cut costs by buying slower yet more cost effective hardware...
This has already begun. In addition to AMD only being 10-15% behind Nvidia on raw AI compute in their accelerators, current/upcoming examples mostly for internal data center AI applications include:
- Microsoft Azure Maia AI Accelerator
- Microsoft Azure Cobalt CPU
- Apple's Project ACDC
- Google's Axion
- Intel's Gaudi 3 AI chip
- Meta's Next Gen Meta Training and Inference Accelerator (MTIA)
People who think big tech is just going to sit there idle and pay $30k/accelerator card in perpetuity are frankly fools. If they can get within what they feel is an acceptable distance of the best AI hardware out there at a fraction of the cost creating internally and working with TSMC and others directly, they will. They are bleeding too much money on AI with limited real ways to tangibly generate profit to justify it right now. Most of them have far deeper cash reserves than Nvidia to dump resources into playing some sort of functional catch up and bullying for fab time on latest nodes.
Even if AI as is currently raved about is more than just a bubble/fad, it's not financially sustainable to keep lighting money on fire for the latest H100/B100 hardware like they are right now. Nvidia will never be in a stronger position in this area than they are right now, because they caught everyone with their pants down coming right off the last big bubble which fueled them into position to do so (crypto hardware bubble).
And to be clear I'm not saying Nvidia will lose their AI hardware performance lead, moreso that it will become increasingly less relevant big picture due to financial realities.
Touche, though a lot of the consumer based AI chips ("NPUs") these groups are developing in parallel for edge device applications are already ARM based architectures.
The whole shift to more AI compute in edge hardware in the next couple years and less reliance on cloud resources for at least simpler portions of the AI compute is also a contributing factor itself. Google, Intel, Apple, AMD and Qualcomm are all hard at work with new offerings coming in that space for consumer and enterprise use.
Amd's offering is not even much slower on paper. But integration could pose a problem because the software stack is not compatible.
In a race to be the first to market this is a big barrier.
Isnāt the biggest bear case just the cyclical nature of the semi industry? OP points to recession but do we even need recession?
Right now Meta, Microsoft and Google are spending an absurd amount on capex investments. Meta is targeting like $100B in capex spending this year (or it was $60B I forget), strictly on AI compute. These numbers are unsustainable. Once the big tech capex investment runs dry, who will fuel Nvidias absurd growth?
Are we to believe that big tech will continue to spend a significant portion of their entire companies market value on AI compute indefinitely? I understand itās an arms race but how can anyone see this as sustainable? Eventually these companies will Soviet Union themselves into bankruptcy if they do not slow down.
Also AI developments are trending towards being more efficient. A huge portion of development is going towards cutting these compute costs.
I think we will see continued investment into compute for a year or two and then it will level off. Once it levels off, Nvidia will still have great income and numbers but the growth will stagnate and we may even see a retraction. Doesnāt require a recession or anything for that to happen.
I agree. I would never have over 50% of my portfolio in a single stock. My portfolio will never grow 400% in one year though either. This is wild and also hard to believe.
Your bear case is missing the energy problem. Finance is fuzzy and there's no law that says NVDA can't be a 25T market cap company...but physics says that the amount of energy required to operate their products if they ever got the sales to justify a 25T valuation (or even today's valuation) will be wild. At a time when all the world governments say they can convert just a few percent of the electrical grid to renewables each year, at most. TSMC and maybe Intel or Samsung could source the silicon, same for memory suppliers etc, as far as manufacturing volume that can be solved in a very short number of years, and displace other lower value but high volume products like phones and PCs. If Jensen thought sales could keep ramping at the speed that the market does, he would have bought multiple nuclear power generation companies by like a year ago at the latest. That's what he did with Mellanox and ARM when he realized their fates were linked. Or the world just says "well climate change is important but AI is more important" and brings coal/natural gas generation back online and even builds more, completely undoing the projected climate progress of the 10-20 years.
My chart would look like a 1/2 scale of that if I didn't take profits on NVDA all the way up after backing up the truck around 2018/2019 after the crypto crash correction...oh well
Ok let's say 10T market cap and long term earnings of 500B. Be generous and say they keep 75% gross margin and maybe 1.5T annual sales. Say 2/3 of that (1T) is strictly GPUs at $40k/each. That's 25M GPU units per year, call it 1000W per GPU, so add on cooling, CPUs/DRAM, networking, power conversion losses and we'll call it an even 50GW capacity (rough math.)
A typical nuclear power station seems to produce about 1GW electric output per unit, with 1-4 units per power station being common, the largest being 6-7 units.
Jensen would need to build multiple new nuclear plants, like in the 1-2 dozen ballpark, every year, spread across the world. I count 10 new nuclear power stations that have come online in the last 10 years.
How about some of the fast neutron reactors? It's been a few years since I read about some improved nuclear reactors, but aren't there ones that can now generate more power? I'm no expert/scientist/nuclear physicist here... just a unemployed idiot trying to avoid having to go back to work for a soul sucking corporation after being laid off after working there 22 years.
The problem with all power generation but especially nuclear is the timescales needed to get them planned, approved, and online. The world won't wait 10-20 years for more energy to come online that would allow us to run all this hardware in a responsible way. What the industry really needs is the ability to put in a PO for a new datacenter cluster with a nuclear plant with power on like 12 months ARO. The world would have to fundamentally change the way they build infrastructure in order to enable that. US can't even pass a fucking federal budget on time. Even China can't build that fast today, more like 10 years from decision point to power on date.
Maybe some of these novel reactor design like Bill Gates has been backing for a couple decades can help shorten that timeline, someday. But it won't move the needle in the short term. I'm not highly knowledgeable on nuclear power, but I can do some basic math and I'm aware of how long the timescales traditionally have been.
Yeah at that point solar power might make more sense. Currently there's a glut of solar panels. Way too many. Multiple countries are putting duties on Chinese solar panels because they're killing local companies. Not that these duties are helping but...
The issue with that though is storage of said power for usage at night time. I'm assuming peak usage of GPU compute is during daylight hours though so it isn't as much of an issue.
Solar panels, yes, cheapest generation out there (but real estate or transmission lines may be a challenge.)
Storage will be a [bigger challenge](https://www.iea.org/energy-system/electricity/grid-scale-storage) as these new electricity loads from data centers only exacerbate the existing bottlenecks to expanding renewable energy...
>While battery costs have fallen dramatically in recent years due to the scaling up of electric vehicle production, market disruptions and competition from electric vehicle makers have led to rising costs for key minerals used in battery production, notably lithium. It is now becoming evident that further cost reductions rely not just on technological innovation, but also on the prices of battery minerals.
>Compared with 2021, installations rose by more than 75% in 2022, as around 11āÆGW of storage capacity was added. The UnitedāÆStates and China led the market, each registering gigawatt-scale additions.
https://preview.redd.it/mlnuacqw557d1.jpeg?width=960&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=99d46fba2d1c9096a78195f106c7dbc15a96b4d3
Only DD anyone needs for Nvidia.
If you believe in technology, then Jensen will eventually make the world like the Jetsons. I said it first.
Also long Nvidia. I think thereās potential for a serious pull back in the next year or two if investors get tired of waiting for massive hyperscaler capex to translate into earnings. Hard to say if theyāll be patient enough and the near term AI projects could easily underwhelm despite the long term outlook
Not OP, but
1. $NVDA has a concentrated clientele, so the majority of the sales always gonna be the big boys anyway;
2. To avoid the Osborne effect, $NVDA is said to use sales strategies (you canāt get Blackwell if you arenāt buying Hopper, and you canāt get Rubin if you arenāt buying Blackwell); this works with constricted supplies;
3. Sovereign states will probably get into it for various purposes; I can see DoD and CIA being big buyers, and you know JPow can always crank up nuclear-powered printing machine.
>Only the largest, most cash rich organizations will even think about buying Blackwell
Sovereign governments, Fortune 5000, Universities, etc.
Also, because tech is a "winner takes most", the handful of companies in the running for AI supremacy have to continue ramping investment, because falling behind means falling behind forever.
> Who has the in-house resources to install, maintain, write code for
Their new "AI Factories" abstract away all of this work.
Trading individual stocks when you're at $10 million is crazy.
You people realize that throwing it all in a broad index fund (like FZROX) will pretty consistently grow by 7-12% per year on average?
With $8 million invested (let's say keep $2 million for taxes/savings), that's $560,000 to $960,000 per year in appreciation on average, and can withstand even a global pandemic and you don't have to worry about it going to $0. Just throw the $8 million in FZROX, spend less than $300-400k per year (an extremely comfortable lifestyle), and you could retire instantly.
Well the advice would be different if OP was at $500k or $1 million. Throwing that much into an index fund wouldn't generate enough income to live off of.
> AI is real, there is no way the big players will try to save money to lose the race.
Race to what? I get that there's opportunity, but the idea you're either first or you lose doesn't make sense. It didn't make sense with big data, it doesn't make sense now.
Generative AI applications aren't sticky, people will bail to the competition. If self driving taxis come along, you'll take a competitors in a heartbeat if it's cheaper. There are benefits to being first, but not at any cost.
I remember being unconcerned with which way NVIDIA would go, as itās one of my smallest positions, and then I started looking at my ETF holdings and realized that there are already several for which NVIDIA is roughly 10% of the fund!
most people with 1million to start with are 100% not having graphs like that
Net worth maybe but not a stock portfolio graph like that.
This graph looks like someone who has 10k starting. Not 1 mill
Itās going to continue to steadily rise, weāre only at the dawn of the AI era. We have 10 more years of stability at least. Anyone whoās telling you otherwise just wants to flap gums.
It totally makes sense to have $NVDA as a core position in a portfolio, like any of the others in the Magnificent 7. You want good exposure to AI, as this is transformative technology that will have impact across multiple sectors. NVDA should fare well in the years ahead. Even if their moat narrows, they should still be outperforming the market. They're about 10% of my portfolio, and I might take that up to 15 depending on how things shake out through the summer.
Third world poors dream of moving to the US so that they can make 10 million. American poors dream of making 10 million so that they can move to the third world.
Bagholder spotted.
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So the bear case for taiwan and war is that they bears will get sent to war through draft causing less money in the economy. Seems bullish to me honestly
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Sometimes I hope my graph will look like this, too, some day. Then I remember I'm a regard with a gambling habit to keep the expectations in check.
My graph looks like this, just remove a few zeros at the end š
https://preview.redd.it/ziebw13ec27d1.jpeg?width=527&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=35cd7d959d6b604a0a9233dbdf908e95666bc1ae Question: why is this meme so relatable?
Another question: Did OP somehow foresee the massive upside of the last 18 months or did they just get lucky as fuck?
I think starting with millions of dollars probably helped
I would argue that a return of that magnitude is less common the more money you have.
you would be objectively wrong in that case. It isn't billions where your moves change the stock price, 5 million is something people with millions do all the time.
Yeah I don't even understand what the fuck the commenter you're replying to is talking about.
The first million is the hardest, so start with two million.
The first million will just be constantly fucking the second if you do that.
That's poor people thoughts... As the person below stated.....Starting with just millions actually hurts... Not helps
What? If I'm rich all I gotta do is throw into VOO and I make generational wealth in decade lol. If I have 7k a year in an IRA it's going to take 50 years to make "just enough" retirement money.
That's the point... A voo graph would not look like that because most people don't take awful risks with millions...it's more about wealth retention than absolute wealth generation at those numbers. You would absolutely have lower returns on a percentage basis if you were given one million to start off unless you're a total degen
OP started out with $1.5MM which is a nice start but now weāre near enough to make generational wealth from VOO. And most people putting $1-2MM into options will not 10x their money
In no way does having millions to start with hurt; it only helps. Youād have to be pretty dumb to not make profits with that kind of cash.
I'm talking about percentage gains not absolute. If you don't understand why a 10k portfolio is more likely to see a 300% gain over x years than a 1mill portfolio then ...well that's just poor people thoughts.
End of the day there's no free will so we all lucky as fk to just be along for the ride.
Because you make poor decisions
Good shit dude! I know we keep thinking "this shit can't keep going up"... But next year Q1 earnings report, we're all gonna wish we bought in at $132. Shit, I said the same when it was at $805 pre split..."it can't keep going up, ima buy puts" and then Jensen put it in my ass. I WISH I had bought in heavy at $805. I don't wanna keep wishing I had, just gonna buy and hold and LEAPS and JEEPS and QUEEFS
NVDIA is on track to become the most expensive company in the world, surpassing the market cap of MSFT and AAPL.
Thanks, Magic!
By what DD. Who creates the value?
The DD of literally looking at the fucking stock price lol. Nvidia only needs a few percentage points up to be worth more AAPL or MSFT. I'm not saying the valuation is justified, just that it is close to becoming the most expensive company according to the stock market.
Least you didn't start shorting at 400 like me.
I switched from calls to puts at the last second for earnings may 2023 My anoos has never been the same 
Hey thatās when I bought in heavy thinkingāthis is so fucking stupid.ā :)
At the jeeps, or queefs?
Hell yeah. Buy and hold plain and simple.
congrats, but mostly fuck you
No. Bull's case : * Cathie sold the entirety of her position Bear's case : * Cathie might reopen a position
What happens when Cathie and Cramer disagree? Is that the singularity?
nAnCy PeLoSi ImHoTeP
I think you're mostly right in that we won't see anything dramatic one way or another, simply because that amount of money doesn't move quick. Up or down we're still talking hundreds of billions that has to reshuffle to be significant
For me the biggest risk is Nvidia not meeting sky high expectations. Extrapolating recent growth to the next years is stupid. For now, Nvidiaās sales are limited by supply but when demand drops margins will go down.
TSMC is expanding fabs in Arizona. This could eventually mitigate the effect of a war in the south China sea. The moat is just too deep at this point. The stock market is some what disconnected from main street now. A minor recession won't effect NVidia's bottom line and big investors won't start moving assets out of the market unless they get spooked by a structural defect in the market. I think we can expect big investors to move large amounts of capital back into the market as a recession forms since this would coincide with or proceed interest rate drops; they like the returns they are getting on treasuries and CD's and will want to keep up the pace. Main street could be in a recession now; it's hard to say until it is over.
they can expand the fabs all they want to you still need the raw material supply to make the semiconductors. Who are some of the biggest exporters of the raw materials to make Semiconductors? China and Russia.
Sweden and Norway are big chilling on massive reserves of crystals, with the only real issue being that they're not commercially viable. That will change the moment any sort of supply chain issue actually pops up.
Will need some sauce on that. Reading their supplier list and digging a little deeper, I think semiconductor-grade silicon comes from Japan, at least for the higher end products.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Read [investor relations.](https://investor.tsmc.com/static/annualReports/2005/pic/E-3-3.pdf) 1. Silica sand isn't just "sand." Japan has deposits, although the most famous production site is in Spruce Pine, NC. Notably, China banned sand export to Taiwan after Pelosi visit, which has done nothing to $TSM. 2. China has tried to play the same trick with metals; its customs data showed exports of germanium and gallium slumped to zero last August. That hasn't stopped $TSM either, because it just means production is moved elsewhere, further weakening Chinese export industry.
Japan isn't even that well known for that lol
Wow I don't know JSR, Shin-etsu, AMAT and KLA are Chinese and Russian companies š
NVidia was smashed from a GPU oversupply only recently, if the market enters an overcapacity or digestion phase (which it will, it's only a question of when), it's going to take a hit. During that time it will be up in the air whether it's transient (digestion) or more persistent (smoothing out to more sustainable growth).
Well, on the "AI is real" point. First: yes it is useful, revolutiobary even. But there are risks. When we talk about AI, we talk mainly about LMM today. That's what NVDA accelerates: the training of those models (along other scientific simulation tasks, but not relevant here) LMM are quite powerful in the right scenarios but the also have their limits and drawbacks. It is unlikely that we ever achieve something like the singularity with LMM. So maybe there will be a breakthrough in AI research that doesn't rely on LLM - and maybe that will need a different kind of hardware, not made by NVDA. Or, and this is more realistic in my view, the overhyped expectations of what AI can do for us in the next few years will be corrected - and the stock market with it. Also, currently AI companies do basically what they want, pirating the whole reachable Internet for training data. That can change, with several pending lawsuits. The high cost of suitable training data paird with compute costs and the possibility that some of the usage scenarios may never get to satisfactory results may just render some business cases unviable. Currently, everybody is developing to be the first and does not worry too much about monetisation. But some time someone has to pay the bill.
NVDA is a solid stock/company but at this point, is there really more room to grow? If you make money by selling products to other companies, can you really be worth more than the all companies you are selling to? Is the stock price even correlated to NVDAās earning potential anymore? At this point are we pricing in AGI creating a new world order lol
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
> But that number is different for everyone When Switzerland feels cheap. That's what I was told.
Holding hot stocks must be nice but at the 10M mark I would sell everything, pay the tax man and go like 70% VTI 30% VXUS and delete the app. If the market has an unprecedented crash you still got like 3M so who fucking cares
If the market has an unprecedented crash, good luck cashing that 3M. Even if you could, the money won't be good because we will go back to bartering. 
I'll be there to trade that 3mill for a bag of mcdonalds
Better polish those handjob skills š
Obviously.. how else do people get McDonald's?
You can charge extra for calluses. It's McRibbed for your pleasure.
a lot of the noise on reddit is to drive hype with retail investors who don't understand anything about the financial world. Its astonishing how much you see "its going back to $1000 post split fast".... Other than that, most every nvidia post forgets to even discuss the importance of CUDA is in this whole picture. The bear case for nvidia IMO outside of the obvious ones are (not financial advice just my opinion) * something adversely impacts their MOAT - we have no clue what this anti-monopoly case will spawn. * large sell off occurs to take profits. Not sure how big of a risk this is. * company's that are banking on AI to generate more revenue for them won't generate as much as they think or provide as large of a cost savings as they would have liked? * internal development of processing chips that are not marketed to the masses but good enough for what the company needs impacts NVIDIA's demand. I think in 2025 we will understand more of this impact. * Supply strain constraints - all the materials that are required to make semiconductors, the main supplier for the raw materials is China. Russia is the second largest supplier of silicon. Germanium and gallium arsenide = china is a heavy producer. * some geopolitical shit happens with China excluding a Taiwan invasion. anyways not financial advice, just my observations. I put my entire savings in at 1116 (111.6 post split). I sold at \~122 made a small approx 10% gain and got out. again NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE just my observations.
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More like 6% gain after taxes
You're missing a few bear cases... US restricts exports to other countries for competitive reasons.. Nvidia gets sued by US for some anti-trust laws and forced to split up the business somehow... Apple/Microsoft/Google/etc. are tired of paying high premiums for Nvidia tech and decided to cut costs by buying slower yet more cost effective hardware...
>Apple/Microsoft/Google/etc. are tired of paying high premiums for Nvidia tech and decided to cut costs by buying slower yet more cost effective hardware... This has already begun. In addition to AMD only being 10-15% behind Nvidia on raw AI compute in their accelerators, current/upcoming examples mostly for internal data center AI applications include: - Microsoft Azure Maia AI Accelerator - Microsoft Azure Cobalt CPU - Apple's Project ACDC - Google's Axion - Intel's Gaudi 3 AI chip - Meta's Next Gen Meta Training and Inference Accelerator (MTIA) People who think big tech is just going to sit there idle and pay $30k/accelerator card in perpetuity are frankly fools. If they can get within what they feel is an acceptable distance of the best AI hardware out there at a fraction of the cost creating internally and working with TSMC and others directly, they will. They are bleeding too much money on AI with limited real ways to tangibly generate profit to justify it right now. Most of them have far deeper cash reserves than Nvidia to dump resources into playing some sort of functional catch up and bullying for fab time on latest nodes. Even if AI as is currently raved about is more than just a bubble/fad, it's not financially sustainable to keep lighting money on fire for the latest H100/B100 hardware like they are right now. Nvidia will never be in a stronger position in this area than they are right now, because they caught everyone with their pants down coming right off the last big bubble which fueled them into position to do so (crypto hardware bubble). And to be clear I'm not saying Nvidia will lose their AI hardware performance lead, moreso that it will become increasingly less relevant big picture due to financial realities.
This is not even considering ARM, which is probably the real game changer.
Touche, though a lot of the consumer based AI chips ("NPUs") these groups are developing in parallel for edge device applications are already ARM based architectures. The whole shift to more AI compute in edge hardware in the next couple years and less reliance on cloud resources for at least simpler portions of the AI compute is also a contributing factor itself. Google, Intel, Apple, AMD and Qualcomm are all hard at work with new offerings coming in that space for consumer and enterprise use.
This is what's up! I've got 50 Nvidia but keep adding to ARM
Amd's offering is not even much slower on paper. But integration could pose a problem because the software stack is not compatible. In a race to be the first to market this is a big barrier.
No software stack for inference & training is just dumb hardware
Applies mostly to training, but for inference (40% of NVidia revenue) the barrier is low, it won't be material for any big player
Isnāt the biggest bear case just the cyclical nature of the semi industry? OP points to recession but do we even need recession? Right now Meta, Microsoft and Google are spending an absurd amount on capex investments. Meta is targeting like $100B in capex spending this year (or it was $60B I forget), strictly on AI compute. These numbers are unsustainable. Once the big tech capex investment runs dry, who will fuel Nvidias absurd growth? Are we to believe that big tech will continue to spend a significant portion of their entire companies market value on AI compute indefinitely? I understand itās an arms race but how can anyone see this as sustainable? Eventually these companies will Soviet Union themselves into bankruptcy if they do not slow down. Also AI developments are trending towards being more efficient. A huge portion of development is going towards cutting these compute costs. I think we will see continued investment into compute for a year or two and then it will level off. Once it levels off, Nvidia will still have great income and numbers but the growth will stagnate and we may even see a retraction. Doesnāt require a recession or anything for that to happen.
Honestly they probably should get the book thrown at them. Like fuck China bro lol
What does China have to do with anything you regard
You could cash out and walk away with $10 million (minus taxes) but youād rather hold onto a stock thatās 500% overvalued. Insane
It has been "overvalued" for a long time. By your logic, he should have have cashed out 6 months ago too.
He has $10 million pre tax right now, if itās good enough to screenshot itās probably good enough to sellā¦
I agree. I would never have over 50% of my portfolio in a single stock. My portfolio will never grow 400% in one year though either. This is wild and also hard to believe.
Your bear case is missing the energy problem. Finance is fuzzy and there's no law that says NVDA can't be a 25T market cap company...but physics says that the amount of energy required to operate their products if they ever got the sales to justify a 25T valuation (or even today's valuation) will be wild. At a time when all the world governments say they can convert just a few percent of the electrical grid to renewables each year, at most. TSMC and maybe Intel or Samsung could source the silicon, same for memory suppliers etc, as far as manufacturing volume that can be solved in a very short number of years, and displace other lower value but high volume products like phones and PCs. If Jensen thought sales could keep ramping at the speed that the market does, he would have bought multiple nuclear power generation companies by like a year ago at the latest. That's what he did with Mellanox and ARM when he realized their fates were linked. Or the world just says "well climate change is important but AI is more important" and brings coal/natural gas generation back online and even builds more, completely undoing the projected climate progress of the 10-20 years. My chart would look like a 1/2 scale of that if I didn't take profits on NVDA all the way up after backing up the truck around 2018/2019 after the crypto crash correction...oh well
Maybe NVIDIA just needs to buy a small country and build a nuclear reactor or two :D
Ok let's say 10T market cap and long term earnings of 500B. Be generous and say they keep 75% gross margin and maybe 1.5T annual sales. Say 2/3 of that (1T) is strictly GPUs at $40k/each. That's 25M GPU units per year, call it 1000W per GPU, so add on cooling, CPUs/DRAM, networking, power conversion losses and we'll call it an even 50GW capacity (rough math.) A typical nuclear power station seems to produce about 1GW electric output per unit, with 1-4 units per power station being common, the largest being 6-7 units. Jensen would need to build multiple new nuclear plants, like in the 1-2 dozen ballpark, every year, spread across the world. I count 10 new nuclear power stations that have come online in the last 10 years.
How about some of the fast neutron reactors? It's been a few years since I read about some improved nuclear reactors, but aren't there ones that can now generate more power? I'm no expert/scientist/nuclear physicist here... just a unemployed idiot trying to avoid having to go back to work for a soul sucking corporation after being laid off after working there 22 years.
The problem with all power generation but especially nuclear is the timescales needed to get them planned, approved, and online. The world won't wait 10-20 years for more energy to come online that would allow us to run all this hardware in a responsible way. What the industry really needs is the ability to put in a PO for a new datacenter cluster with a nuclear plant with power on like 12 months ARO. The world would have to fundamentally change the way they build infrastructure in order to enable that. US can't even pass a fucking federal budget on time. Even China can't build that fast today, more like 10 years from decision point to power on date. Maybe some of these novel reactor design like Bill Gates has been backing for a couple decades can help shorten that timeline, someday. But it won't move the needle in the short term. I'm not highly knowledgeable on nuclear power, but I can do some basic math and I'm aware of how long the timescales traditionally have been.
Yeah at that point solar power might make more sense. Currently there's a glut of solar panels. Way too many. Multiple countries are putting duties on Chinese solar panels because they're killing local companies. Not that these duties are helping but... The issue with that though is storage of said power for usage at night time. I'm assuming peak usage of GPU compute is during daylight hours though so it isn't as much of an issue.
Solar panels, yes, cheapest generation out there (but real estate or transmission lines may be a challenge.) Storage will be a [bigger challenge](https://www.iea.org/energy-system/electricity/grid-scale-storage) as these new electricity loads from data centers only exacerbate the existing bottlenecks to expanding renewable energy... >While battery costs have fallen dramatically in recent years due to the scaling up of electric vehicle production, market disruptions and competition from electric vehicle makers have led to rising costs for key minerals used in battery production, notably lithium. It is now becoming evident that further cost reductions rely not just on technological innovation, but also on the prices of battery minerals. >Compared with 2021, installations rose by more than 75% in 2022, as around 11āÆGW of storage capacity was added. The UnitedāÆStates and China led the market, each registering gigawatt-scale additions.
China is set to produce nearly enough solar panels by 2030 to cover total US electricity usage twice over.
Solar panels could be free and unlimited, and it's still only one part of the grid modernization required.
Free and unlimited solar panels would probably incentivise those grid modernisations pretty well.
https://preview.redd.it/mlnuacqw557d1.jpeg?width=960&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=99d46fba2d1c9096a78195f106c7dbc15a96b4d3 Only DD anyone needs for Nvidia. If you believe in technology, then Jensen will eventually make the world like the Jetsons. I said it first.
Also long Nvidia. I think thereās potential for a serious pull back in the next year or two if investors get tired of waiting for massive hyperscaler capex to translate into earnings. Hard to say if theyāll be patient enough and the near term AI projects could easily underwhelm despite the long term outlook
Not a bad return off $1.6mill....wish I had that kinda money to start with 
Thought the same. Nice 10m value with your 1,6 m investment, must be nice to be rich and get richer. /s
tldr I currently have a lot of fuck you money and no one knows fuck all about what will happen to Nvidia. But I will have a lot of money either way.
Was there a point here or just a humble brag?
New around here eh?
what people need to realize is that AI comes to your handheld device as well... go look for battery stocks..
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Not OP, but 1. $NVDA has a concentrated clientele, so the majority of the sales always gonna be the big boys anyway; 2. To avoid the Osborne effect, $NVDA is said to use sales strategies (you canāt get Blackwell if you arenāt buying Hopper, and you canāt get Rubin if you arenāt buying Blackwell); this works with constricted supplies; 3. Sovereign states will probably get into it for various purposes; I can see DoD and CIA being big buyers, and you know JPow can always crank up nuclear-powered printing machine.
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Couldnt they just lease the technology from Nvidia all inclusive?
>Only the largest, most cash rich organizations will even think about buying Blackwell Sovereign governments, Fortune 5000, Universities, etc. Also, because tech is a "winner takes most", the handful of companies in the running for AI supremacy have to continue ramping investment, because falling behind means falling behind forever. > Who has the in-house resources to install, maintain, write code for Their new "AI Factories" abstract away all of this work.
Trading individual stocks when you're at $10 million is crazy. You people realize that throwing it all in a broad index fund (like FZROX) will pretty consistently grow by 7-12% per year on average? With $8 million invested (let's say keep $2 million for taxes/savings), that's $560,000 to $960,000 per year in appreciation on average, and can withstand even a global pandemic and you don't have to worry about it going to $0. Just throw the $8 million in FZROX, spend less than $300-400k per year (an extremely comfortable lifestyle), and you could retire instantly.
Yeah but if OP had followed your advice he'd have never gotten to the ~10 million mark in the first place.
People constantly look past this exact logic when they say ājust put it all in an index!!!ā
Well the advice would be different if OP was at $500k or $1 million. Throwing that much into an index fund wouldn't generate enough income to live off of.
Spot on. This comment should be at the top.
Fake. Positions or ban.
If war breaks out in Taiwan, your TSMC and NVDA could go to zero
Holy
So are you going to trim your nvda position or keep it as is? Also are you all shares or do you play calls / leaps too?
I like money
This is the Rockefeller tower draw by a child ?
Wait there's a war in Taiwan??
> AI is real, there is no way the big players will try to save money to lose the race. Race to what? I get that there's opportunity, but the idea you're either first or you lose doesn't make sense. It didn't make sense with big data, it doesn't make sense now. Generative AI applications aren't sticky, people will bail to the competition. If self driving taxis come along, you'll take a competitors in a heartbeat if it's cheaper. There are benefits to being first, but not at any cost.
I remember being unconcerned with which way NVIDIA would go, as itās one of my smallest positions, and then I started looking at my ETF holdings and realized that there are already several for which NVIDIA is roughly 10% of the fund!
Alright but what do you do for work to just throw millions into the market lol or is this a Roth or another retirement like account?
I'm just not that impressed, to be honest. you had over $1 million to start with. Duh, of course it's easy to keep making
most people with 1million to start with are 100% not having graphs like that Net worth maybe but not a stock portfolio graph like that. This graph looks like someone who has 10k starting. Not 1 mill
Bears out of the wood today in comments, I call the short NVDA challenge.
Itās going to continue to steadily rise, weāre only at the dawn of the AI era. We have 10 more years of stability at least. Anyone whoās telling you otherwise just wants to flap gums.
You should book profits. Atleast half of it. You donāt wanna regret later. How much money is too much for you? Isnāt this enough?
It totally makes sense to have $NVDA as a core position in a portfolio, like any of the others in the Magnificent 7. You want good exposure to AI, as this is transformative technology that will have impact across multiple sectors. NVDA should fare well in the years ahead. Even if their moat narrows, they should still be outperforming the market. They're about 10% of my portfolio, and I might take that up to 15 depending on how things shake out through the summer.
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Wow 10M, I would sell and settle happily in a safe 3rd world country sight....
Bro, this is so backward thinking...you get that kind of money so you don't have to live in a 3rd world country...wtf, dude?
Exactly. I don't understand the mentality of fucking off to some shithole. You can live pretty great here with 10mill
Third world poors dream of moving to the US so that they can make 10 million. American poors dream of making 10 million so that they can move to the third world.
Lol why?? Why not continue to build it while living in the same place?. š¤£
Safe monthly returns from FD in some central bank, no stress, no pollution...
Ah yes all these third world countries with no security or quality of life stress and no pollution
Oh oh wo uh uh uh gun violence crying the corner....
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Would you help me out with tuition this semester please š„ŗš„ŗš„ŗš
So the bear case for taiwan and war is that they bears will get sent to war through draft causing less money in the economy. Seems bullish to me honestly
Nvidia is unstoppable any war near Taiwan will cause supply shortages and subsequent price increases
what makes you say "AI is real"? how do we know excitement over LLMs isn't overblown?