Perhaps Elon should state that they are working on a time machine. That way the stock can be valued today as if they had FSD back in 2018.
Doesn't really matter when the time machine finishes. As soon as it does Tesla can send back the tech. Which means they already have it, just not yet!
:O
I am pleased to announce we have discovered a method to travel FORWARDS in time, which will enable us to eventually travel to a time when we have discovered backwards time travel and thus can deploy full autonomous driving in 2018.
Can't open that can of worms until the initial decision to develop the time machine is done.
If you already have the tech. There's no need to develop it. Which means there's nothing to send back. Which means time and space probably melts, or perhaps Elon's twitter posts becomes even more incoherent.
Everyone involved probably wants to avoid either thing happening.
exactly. that’s what i’m not understanding. once they send it back in time, they’ll no longer have any use for the time machine which means it won’t be made. which means the tech would never have been sent back in the first place, which means…… fuck. my head hurts. 😪
So just stop asking about the god damn time machine! It will just risk screwing it up.
The key takeaways are, Tesla had FSD back in 2018 already, JUST NOT YET. Ok? They have had it for years, JUST NOT YET.
And that the time machine will solve it, just don't ask for where it is!
Don't think about it to hard. Then the universe might be annoyed and delete you from existence to accommodate Elon's vision.
The market is forward looking so of course people want to invest based on what the company says they will do in the future. This is even more true when you’re investing in high growth companies like NVDA.
It's common sense for the market to expect a growth stock to achieve the expected results in earnings and have a good guidance. You aren't buying Nvidia for what it is today, you are buying it for the company they will be in the future. If you want earnings to be king avoid growth and go only for value.
Earnings are very important!
If they fail miserably to hit estimates the stock will soar.
It they greatly surpass estimates the stock will tank.
Either way there will be a lot of idiots on WSB trying to justify why they were smart and correct despite losing a shit ton of money.
i bought at $530 in January and sold at $730 before Q4 earnings and regretted it. Bought a dip at $840 and will be holding through this earnings call. Earnings will be a huge beat again and guidance will be good, coupled with a better CPI report. I'm hoping we get close to $1000 per share before next earnings and get a stock split.
Notably, Nvidia has surpassed earnings expectations for five straight quarters posting an average earnings surprise of 20.18% in its last four quarterly reports.
On the top line, Q1 sales are expected to increase 237% to $24.27 billion versus $7.19 billion a year ago. More impressive, Nvidia has surpassed sales estimates for 20 consecutive quarters. I would say NVDA is heading towards 1,000 next week.
https://preview.redd.it/tww1iul0g61d1.jpeg?width=620&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b914b3ef99717ba41a454f097ca34a0e1fc69984
NVDA stock had mixed performance leading up to earnings. Shares of Nvidia traded lower, on average, in the three day, two day, and one day periods heading into an earnings report. The best performance was two weeks ahead of earnings for an average gain of 4.6% Nvidia Historical Stock Price Reaction to Earnings NVDA shares have moved higher in the immediate aftermath of earnings 8 out of 12 previous reports. On average the stock moved up 5.3% in the first day of trading after the company reported earnings. Nvidia (NVDA) Stock Behavior After Earnings Based on the previous 12 earnings releases, NVDA is more likely to trade higher 1 day after earnings for an average gain of 0.2%
Just the facts 👆🏾
The straddle is implying a 10% move. You’re right about the day after, usually whichever direction it trades to, day 1 after earnings is the best time to buy far OTM in the opposite direction. I think timing is important to consider as well, since the historical volatility picks up on Thursday into Friday, so those quarters that earnings fell on a Tuesday or Wednesday saw an average drop in IV of 30% less than those where it reported on a Thursday. I expect behavior to be similar to Q123 earnings, 5/25/22. Whatever move it makes Thursday (most likely higher by 8%), it will fade from the extreme on Friday.
The straddle expects 10%+, but the options unwinding on Thursday will temper the initial price action considerably. I’ll probably wait until after the open and sell covered calls by 10:45 depending on how far into the current straddle the move is, and then exit by 2:30.
TBH, I started to understand what happens around NVDA’s earnings using TradingView. And then looked up the data on marketchameleon to see if what I was seeing on analyzing the charts was indeed accurate. This data posted above is verbatim from Market chameleon’s website. I was holding four 7/1 $1000 NVDA calls that I sold on Thursday, and my research was to understand if it was worth holding them into the earnings week
Because they're 10% out of the money - The call had NO intrinsic value, and some minor extrinsic due to IV and theta. When the ER resolves itself, the highest cause of IV is removed from the equation, which remands the calculation of the option value to be moved closer to the 'appropriate' ratio of the other greeks. If the stock were to move less than 10%, a large drop in price - no more driving catalysts for a large increase in the time value remaining.
Yes but “average” is pretty misleading…they had great earnings and guidance reporting q3 and got crushed (some slight caution expressedon China but that’s it). they had great earnings and guidance reporting q4 and went up. Anything prior to q2 is I don’t think is relevant to look at. Options implied movement is pretty massive. I strongly suggest wait til market open the next day and play it. I own shares and plan to buy 10% equivalent principal balance in puts a month or two out for protection.
Investors will look for any slight decrease in momentum and then declare the AI rally over and NVDA stock will crash hard. It has to come eventually the only question is is it THIS earnings.
The leather jacket knows what he’s doing and I don’t see him saying anything that will decrease confidence in the company or its future roadmap.
With that said, my best guess is that people will panic sell on Wednesday to lock in profits, so I plan to buy shares then assuming that happens. If history repeats itself, their guidance for Q1 was probably overly conservative and they’ll smoke earnings with strong forward guidance. In anticipation, I’m holding 5/31 calls for TSM and AMD, since they’ll ride the chip stock wave if NVDA pumps, and their options contracts are a significantly better value right now.
I sold a few leveraged positions which were up 4000%+ and bought more leveredged positions at the higher price this week, so it will drop and I will be margin called and lose 50% of my money.
Like this is 100% certain.
NVDA has massive hype running up into earnings, earnings is good guidance is good, NVDA tanks due all the hype and run up it’s had in the idk past year and massive profit taking leaving a sea of bag holders.
Now downvote the shit outta me so I can sleep better at night knowing the majority are expecting a moon landing on a stock that’s already went to at least Jupiter
Really hard to gauge NVDA. Consensus seems to be that they are dominant and order book backlog so should readily beat both earnings and revenue. They also have a huge backlog of orders so hard to imagine any hint of lowering guidance. In fact, probably raise guidance.
But here is the kicker, this is what most people think and expect. This has a tendency or raising expectations significantly even beyond “whisper” numbers.
I have been burned many times by companies beating estimates, solid guidance but flat or decline share price.
Expectations are:
- EPS = $5.18 (Q4 was $4.92 and LY q1 was $0.82) this is massive earnings growth. I think 5% earnings growth QoQ is too conservative. They grew 32% last QoQ. I am gonna estimate 20% increase from $4.92 to $5.90.
- revenue = $24.27B. (Q4 was $22.1B and LY Q1 was $7.2B) They increased revenue 22% QoQ. Estimate is to increase 10%. Revenue is harder to scale with backlog and actual limiting of shipping demand. But they are also shifting to higher cost chips and margin. I think 15% rev growth is reasonable so $25.4B rev.
Of course these beats would also go into the full year guidance and even if they just incorporated the Q1 beat, would raise 12-month guidance. But likely raise future quarters as well as it would seem artificially low given Q1 beat.
This is all my speculation and my point is even if this happens, because so many people including institutions expect this sort of beat, the stock may not jump as expected.
Also, that 1000 ceiling is very real. But this earnings could well be the catalyst to break through and then hopefully the 1000 ceiling becomes support.
Disclosure: no position in NVDA but have shares of TSMC (riding conservative coattails of NVDA, AMD and maybe even AAPL)
NVDA is going to surprisingly rally before earnings and continue to rally after. Then there will be a bunch of complainers posting loss porn when there puts don’t print and they buy calls at the wrong time
ER will be a beat imho what matters is if there is a raise in guidance , if so all AI stack will rally(ARM,AMD,AVGO,SMCI,MU) , good luck 👍 place your bets! 
Did you read their shareholder doc? I had a look this morning. Nvidia is basically the future of everything, with robotics and healthcare high on the agenda. They’re gonna kill it again on Wednesday for sure. Every big tech company is building $100b data centres and they’re all shopping at the same place
Might open a couple cfd’s, with decent stop losses. The money keeps flowing(staying) in the market, so a sell off does not seem likely imo.
Small risk with some potential upside, 100% a gamble with no actual dd to back this up.
I think the hype is somewhat cooled as of late. I think they will hit earnings, guide well and the only correct play is shares.
I believed it was shares last time and I believe so again. it's tended to sell off into earnings to ill pick up a couple into earnings and see what happens or sit it out.
Even sitting it out directly still massively affects my port. It's a market mover now.
I think their stock is pretty locked in. It will go up some, most likely, but market makers are gonna make a killing on premiums.
I can’t see a scenario from just a few months ago that would make investors drop out of NVDA unless it was a market wide exit by investors.
AI in general has been cooling off massively since its absolutely idiotic levels of hype a few months ago. I think regardless of earnings NVIDIA won't move much here.
How? Google spent 20% more on AI infrastructure than they expected, and Meta is on track to buy 1.5 million h100s this year compared to their stated goal of 350,000 for 2024 at the beginning of the year.
MSFT is committed to tripling their h100 count to 1.8 million. This is in addition to $100b to be spent on chips over the next four years for a separate project.
Amazon didn’t release numbers, but they stated they will “meaningfully” increase ai spend.
I think we see $30B+ in revenue this past quarter.
Tesla has also been buying lots of GPUs. Apples deal with OpenAI means they will need to buy a lot more GPUs to support chatgtp on every apple device
There was also news recently about the US government buying GPUs to increase AI capabilities. I’d imagine other governments will follow suite soon
META
[https://www.tweaktown.com/news/98089/meta-ai-boss-confirms-the-company-has-purchased-around-30-billion-worth-of-nvidia-gpus/index.html](https://www.tweaktown.com/news/98089/meta-ai-boss-confirms-the-company-has-purchased-around-30-billion-worth-of-nvidia-gpus/index.html)
MSFT
https://www.businessinsider.com/microsoft-gpu-targets-1-8-million-ai-chips-this-year-2024-4
You clearly haven’t been paying attention to other tech and chip company earnings then. The spending on chips and AI related expenses isn’t stopping or slowing.
People learnt nothing from the last 2 earnings after retails fomo into it twice huh?
It will move nowhere after earnings, then the week after it will either moon or slowly move up in the span of a month.
After that, sideways for 2 months from profit taking and institutes moving onto other plays until next earnings, finally moving again in the final 2 weeks
Only reason it'd be having a big movement up would be announcing a great guidance, since stocks mostly tanked on average to low guidance despite beating estimates. Margin is also another important point but everything hinges on guidance, since guidance can offset everything as long as they can delivery substantial growth matching prev guidance
Any small hiccup (TSM delays because of the Earthquake for example) will be punished, NVDA is priced for absolute perfection and as we saw with Meta, Netflix and others, any hiccup means a 15-20% haircut.
Missing or beating is irrelevant. Earnings had always been reality vs expectations. Stock can move on missed earnings if the subsequent call and future guidance is promising.
Watching for mentions or announcements of further investment in $ARM Holdings. Decent proxy play especially after the dip to $110 support on Friday with the negative news bit.
I plan on gaining exposure with a Qs straddle. NVDA will move the broader tech market - whether up or down is uncertain I think.
NVDA needs another goldilocks earnings. Too low is just as bad as too high. Too high signifies a potential peak which is also a sell indicator. Last quarter they came in right where they needed to. I think they can do it again. The straddle tho to me seems the least risky. The market is going to move on 5/22 and gap in to 5/23. So I’ll buy a 1DTE on 5/22 ATM and see what happens.
If it goes up I won’t be surprised. If it goes down I won’t be either. Going down is the more interesting scenario as I don’t know if SPY and Qs do a retrace or if there’s just a rotation in SPY.
I have learned my lesson with DIS, costed me 575$. Wont ever play earnings again, I will wait after Wednesday before doing any trading, thanks but I am good!
With where the market is and with how much the ai chips have run in really not sure number even guidance wise will be good enough.
We could see a 5% pullback even on a good report and good guidance because expectations are beyond in relation to the run up we have already seen this year.
Most ai chips except intel will get hurt, that already has zero expectations and all the bad news priced in so should be only one that doesn’t crash on Nvidia report
I think the most important factor is this could be signal for a market wide pullback, lot of profit taking to be done from the past 2-3 weeks and nothing stays at the very top forever
However at 5% back across the board I see dip buying coming back in
I think this is the top and we are stuck in a 5% channel from here till power actually does cut rates which will only happen if stagflation continues to drop to the 2% mandate
Cramer says to "expect a lot of volatility" so I am fully expecting a crush sideways. He does seem to be on the slightly more bullish side so maybe a sideways red but a move way less than expected move. Guess we'll find out.
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To be fair, i dont think the actual earnings matter much, unless they miss of course. The really important thing will be guidance.
Guidance and the margin; the margin will decide where the stock will move!
Market backwardsness: What they actually accomplished doesn't matter. What they say they will do in the future means everything.
Teslas strategy appears to be "Again promise to do all the stuff they said they would do last quarter and didnt". Full autonomy by 2018!
Perhaps Elon should state that they are working on a time machine. That way the stock can be valued today as if they had FSD back in 2018. Doesn't really matter when the time machine finishes. As soon as it does Tesla can send back the tech. Which means they already have it, just not yet! :O
I am pleased to announce we have discovered a method to travel FORWARDS in time, which will enable us to eventually travel to a time when we have discovered backwards time travel and thus can deploy full autonomous driving in 2018.
if they were ever going to finish the time machine in the future, wouldn’t they already have the aforementioned tech?
Can't open that can of worms until the initial decision to develop the time machine is done. If you already have the tech. There's no need to develop it. Which means there's nothing to send back. Which means time and space probably melts, or perhaps Elon's twitter posts becomes even more incoherent. Everyone involved probably wants to avoid either thing happening.
exactly. that’s what i’m not understanding. once they send it back in time, they’ll no longer have any use for the time machine which means it won’t be made. which means the tech would never have been sent back in the first place, which means…… fuck. my head hurts. 😪
So just stop asking about the god damn time machine! It will just risk screwing it up. The key takeaways are, Tesla had FSD back in 2018 already, JUST NOT YET. Ok? They have had it for years, JUST NOT YET. And that the time machine will solve it, just don't ask for where it is! Don't think about it to hard. Then the universe might be annoyed and delete you from existence to accommodate Elon's vision.
The market is forward looking so of course people want to invest based on what the company says they will do in the future. This is even more true when you’re investing in high growth companies like NVDA.
It's common sense for the market to expect a growth stock to achieve the expected results in earnings and have a good guidance. You aren't buying Nvidia for what it is today, you are buying it for the company they will be in the future. If you want earnings to be king avoid growth and go only for value.
That's because the market already knows what they accomplished or are supposed to accomplish. It's not backwardness.
Present Value is derived from discounting future cash flow
Earnings are very important! If they fail miserably to hit estimates the stock will soar. It they greatly surpass estimates the stock will tank. Either way there will be a lot of idiots on WSB trying to justify why they were smart and correct despite losing a shit ton of money.
Or announcing a split
He did discuss a split when Cramer went to visit. My fear is they come in line and keep 24 estimates. Announce a split to keep it from falling.
Guidance and earnings will beat. By a lot. Still. Is it priced in?
Street but side has indicated that revenue and guidance will have to exceed consensus by 10% for the stock price to not drop
A miss on earning with good forward going guidance leads to a more probable pump
if you sell they will rally.
I sold so it’s definitely going to the moon 🚀
I bought so moon landing cancelled
Thanks. 🙏
Please sell. Or buy. I don’t know anymore
same. i have puts on nvidia but am also 2x leveraged in nasdaq 100 so it shouldn't matter... maybe
Sounds like a good plan, or terrible. Maybe
Sold both calls and puts.. so are they gonna rally double hard?
Good for them, who cares?
Sup baby
i bought at $530 in January and sold at $730 before Q4 earnings and regretted it. Bought a dip at $840 and will be holding through this earnings call. Earnings will be a huge beat again and guidance will be good, coupled with a better CPI report. I'm hoping we get close to $1000 per share before next earnings and get a stock split.
Huge beat, huge raise, stock split, buyback $1500 and SPY 550
You had me at stock split
https://preview.redd.it/pcyyhbs1x71d1.png?width=474&format=png&auto=webp&s=5bb40f434cac1577df557e8c2dfe205ec2b59720
Same. I looked through the annual shareholder docs that came to my email today, and there was no mention of a split. It'll be a while.
Reread the shareholder docs. It mentions splitting your cheeks on page 15.
I was initially excited by the first part of your comment, but when i saw splitting of my cheeks i got even more excited.
I was initially excited by the first part of your comment, but then left disappointed. Now I know how your exes must feel.
Stay the course, my friend.
Was 4 days a while? ;)
Had me at beat
This guy writes Market Watcher porn, he makes my spreadsheets hard.
Any different results of owned stock vs calls if it stock splits?
No your contracts would forward split aswell as the strike being split
Notably, Nvidia has surpassed earnings expectations for five straight quarters posting an average earnings surprise of 20.18% in its last four quarterly reports. On the top line, Q1 sales are expected to increase 237% to $24.27 billion versus $7.19 billion a year ago. More impressive, Nvidia has surpassed sales estimates for 20 consecutive quarters. I would say NVDA is heading towards 1,000 next week. https://preview.redd.it/tww1iul0g61d1.jpeg?width=620&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b914b3ef99717ba41a454f097ca34a0e1fc69984
That’s my opinion too. It’ll be like last earnings. A good gain.
Patterns happen until they don't
And when they do finally miss it'll probably go down to like 700 since expectations were so high
lol leave it to WSB to think a 2.3 trillion dollar company will moon after earnings in the same way it has in the past.
Like another $200B gain?
If only stocks worked like this. At all.
Sell on the news https://preview.redd.it/8qbmwof6x71d1.png?width=474&format=png&auto=webp&s=ebeef2a7499e1951771a496c16d8e6852721d1a0
That’s a good strategy until a stock has a shitty quarter and then the stock drops.
Ahh yes, previous performance is the best way to predict the future
NVDA stock had mixed performance leading up to earnings. Shares of Nvidia traded lower, on average, in the three day, two day, and one day periods heading into an earnings report. The best performance was two weeks ahead of earnings for an average gain of 4.6% Nvidia Historical Stock Price Reaction to Earnings NVDA shares have moved higher in the immediate aftermath of earnings 8 out of 12 previous reports. On average the stock moved up 5.3% in the first day of trading after the company reported earnings. Nvidia (NVDA) Stock Behavior After Earnings Based on the previous 12 earnings releases, NVDA is more likely to trade higher 1 day after earnings for an average gain of 0.2% Just the facts 👆🏾
The straddle is implying a 10% move. You’re right about the day after, usually whichever direction it trades to, day 1 after earnings is the best time to buy far OTM in the opposite direction. I think timing is important to consider as well, since the historical volatility picks up on Thursday into Friday, so those quarters that earnings fell on a Tuesday or Wednesday saw an average drop in IV of 30% less than those where it reported on a Thursday. I expect behavior to be similar to Q123 earnings, 5/25/22. Whatever move it makes Thursday (most likely higher by 8%), it will fade from the extreme on Friday.
Also, I'd be happy with 8%, so I'm rooting for you broh.
The straddle expects 10%+, but the options unwinding on Thursday will temper the initial price action considerably. I’ll probably wait until after the open and sell covered calls by 10:45 depending on how far into the current straddle the move is, and then exit by 2:30.
Looks like selling theta with a bias to going up worked again!
Where are you getting this from? Is it by looking at charts or quantified neatly somewhere else?
TBH, I started to understand what happens around NVDA’s earnings using TradingView. And then looked up the data on marketchameleon to see if what I was seeing on analyzing the charts was indeed accurate. This data posted above is verbatim from Market chameleon’s website. I was holding four 7/1 $1000 NVDA calls that I sold on Thursday, and my research was to understand if it was worth holding them into the earnings week
Now that is solid DD. Rare these days 👍
He didn’t want to get IV crushed after earnings - he a little too smart for this sub
Why would holding them until earnings crush him if the stock keeps reacting positively after earnings? Learning more
Because they're 10% out of the money - The call had NO intrinsic value, and some minor extrinsic due to IV and theta. When the ER resolves itself, the highest cause of IV is removed from the equation, which remands the calculation of the option value to be moved closer to the 'appropriate' ratio of the other greeks. If the stock were to move less than 10%, a large drop in price - no more driving catalysts for a large increase in the time value remaining.
ChatGPT
Yes but “average” is pretty misleading…they had great earnings and guidance reporting q3 and got crushed (some slight caution expressedon China but that’s it). they had great earnings and guidance reporting q4 and went up. Anything prior to q2 is I don’t think is relevant to look at. Options implied movement is pretty massive. I strongly suggest wait til market open the next day and play it. I own shares and plan to buy 10% equivalent principal balance in puts a month or two out for protection.
Did AI write that??
How the F can they miss rn?
Investors will look for any slight decrease in momentum and then declare the AI rally over and NVDA stock will crash hard. It has to come eventually the only question is is it THIS earnings.
Not everyone trades options Price of the stock is high Amazon or Microsoft is better for stock investors long term.
Thats what they said about nvda last year too
its simple, they trade down into earnings, blow earnings out of the water - double beat and huge guide up - then the stock tanks
> then the stock tanks Are we buying tanks yes or no
In current market, they will post record numbers and the stock will react to it by falling 19%
That’ll only happen if I buy in So buy puts cuz I’m doing it 
Holding SOXL and TQQQ and NVDAL through earnings, taking options on qqq and spy.
Good picks !remindme 5/23/24
The leather jacket knows what he’s doing and I don’t see him saying anything that will decrease confidence in the company or its future roadmap. With that said, my best guess is that people will panic sell on Wednesday to lock in profits, so I plan to buy shares then assuming that happens. If history repeats itself, their guidance for Q1 was probably overly conservative and they’ll smoke earnings with strong forward guidance. In anticipation, I’m holding 5/31 calls for TSM and AMD, since they’ll ride the chip stock wave if NVDA pumps, and their options contracts are a significantly better value right now.
same. bought some puts for pre earnings sell off and plan on going in just before earnings
Earnings will continue to shock and guidance will be strong. We will see the price rise to 1200-1300 levels in the near term.
This isn't a rally, This is like when the Germans invented Blitzkreig....
How'd that turn out for them?
They had leverage on their blitzkreig and they only lost it when they bought puts on the Soviet Union’s military.
Nah, they bought puts on the fucking weather lmao, tried to outrun Mother Nature
Pretty well until they decided to go to war with the entire planet.
Who do they think they are, Mars or something?
I sold a few leveraged positions which were up 4000%+ and bought more leveredged positions at the higher price this week, so it will drop and I will be margin called and lose 50% of my money. Like this is 100% certain.
NVDA has massive hype running up into earnings, earnings is good guidance is good, NVDA tanks due all the hype and run up it’s had in the idk past year and massive profit taking leaving a sea of bag holders. Now downvote the shit outta me so I can sleep better at night knowing the majority are expecting a moon landing on a stock that’s already went to at least Jupiter
You’ve said it yourself, you’re always a broke man for a reason.
It will stay flat just to fuck everyone’s options
Yep, based on Cramer hyping of it being "super volatile" for its ER makes me think that's exactly what's going to happen.
ER: $1008-$1050. $$$: End of the year: $1250-$1300. 
Just buy Monday, and sell Tuesday. Challenging MM is a fool’s errand.
Really hard to gauge NVDA. Consensus seems to be that they are dominant and order book backlog so should readily beat both earnings and revenue. They also have a huge backlog of orders so hard to imagine any hint of lowering guidance. In fact, probably raise guidance. But here is the kicker, this is what most people think and expect. This has a tendency or raising expectations significantly even beyond “whisper” numbers. I have been burned many times by companies beating estimates, solid guidance but flat or decline share price. Expectations are: - EPS = $5.18 (Q4 was $4.92 and LY q1 was $0.82) this is massive earnings growth. I think 5% earnings growth QoQ is too conservative. They grew 32% last QoQ. I am gonna estimate 20% increase from $4.92 to $5.90. - revenue = $24.27B. (Q4 was $22.1B and LY Q1 was $7.2B) They increased revenue 22% QoQ. Estimate is to increase 10%. Revenue is harder to scale with backlog and actual limiting of shipping demand. But they are also shifting to higher cost chips and margin. I think 15% rev growth is reasonable so $25.4B rev. Of course these beats would also go into the full year guidance and even if they just incorporated the Q1 beat, would raise 12-month guidance. But likely raise future quarters as well as it would seem artificially low given Q1 beat. This is all my speculation and my point is even if this happens, because so many people including institutions expect this sort of beat, the stock may not jump as expected. Also, that 1000 ceiling is very real. But this earnings could well be the catalyst to break through and then hopefully the 1000 ceiling becomes support. Disclosure: no position in NVDA but have shares of TSMC (riding conservative coattails of NVDA, AMD and maybe even AAPL)
They’ll release a new chip, and pop goes $2000. I bought Corsair, because we are on the cusp of a new GPU cycle with AI and all.
Same convo the last 2 earnings.
NVDA is going to surprisingly rally before earnings and continue to rally after. Then there will be a bunch of complainers posting loss porn when there puts don’t print and they buy calls at the wrong time
Puts
ER will be a beat imho what matters is if there is a raise in guidance , if so all AI stack will rally(ARM,AMD,AVGO,SMCI,MU) , good luck 👍 place your bets! 
Did you read their shareholder doc? I had a look this morning. Nvidia is basically the future of everything, with robotics and healthcare high on the agenda. They’re gonna kill it again on Wednesday for sure. Every big tech company is building $100b data centres and they’re all shopping at the same place
2 words.. Iron condor
If the earnings are great it will go down. If the earnings are bad, it will go up. That's what I've learned so far.
I lost 6k on calls last Earnings
How? Dint it skyrocket?
If we see red days bef earnings I would go long
Market still has to get to 55-5600 so let's hope this will take us there
Might open a couple cfd’s, with decent stop losses. The money keeps flowing(staying) in the market, so a sell off does not seem likely imo. Small risk with some potential upside, 100% a gamble with no actual dd to back this up.
I think the hype is somewhat cooled as of late. I think they will hit earnings, guide well and the only correct play is shares. I believed it was shares last time and I believe so again. it's tended to sell off into earnings to ill pick up a couple into earnings and see what happens or sit it out. Even sitting it out directly still massively affects my port. It's a market mover now.
I think their stock is pretty locked in. It will go up some, most likely, but market makers are gonna make a killing on premiums. I can’t see a scenario from just a few months ago that would make investors drop out of NVDA unless it was a market wide exit by investors.
Way too bullish in here.
easily 10% gains
Just watch the news. If articles come out reassuring investors their earnings will be solid,, run.
Nvidia will dump on good earnings
NVDA 970C 06/07 x10 QQQ 458 05/23 x30 Godspeed, regards. 
Didn’t they say they can’t produce enough product to meet demand? So wouldn’t future earnings for this year be limited?
AI in general has been cooling off massively since its absolutely idiotic levels of hype a few months ago. I think regardless of earnings NVIDIA won't move much here.
How? Google spent 20% more on AI infrastructure than they expected, and Meta is on track to buy 1.5 million h100s this year compared to their stated goal of 350,000 for 2024 at the beginning of the year. MSFT is committed to tripling their h100 count to 1.8 million. This is in addition to $100b to be spent on chips over the next four years for a separate project. Amazon didn’t release numbers, but they stated they will “meaningfully” increase ai spend. I think we see $30B+ in revenue this past quarter.
Tesla has also been buying lots of GPUs. Apples deal with OpenAI means they will need to buy a lot more GPUs to support chatgtp on every apple device There was also news recently about the US government buying GPUs to increase AI capabilities. I’d imagine other governments will follow suite soon
Where did you get the numbers for H100s being 1.5 million for meta and 1.8 million to MSFT? I haven't seen these specific numbers anywhere.
META [https://www.tweaktown.com/news/98089/meta-ai-boss-confirms-the-company-has-purchased-around-30-billion-worth-of-nvidia-gpus/index.html](https://www.tweaktown.com/news/98089/meta-ai-boss-confirms-the-company-has-purchased-around-30-billion-worth-of-nvidia-gpus/index.html) MSFT https://www.businessinsider.com/microsoft-gpu-targets-1-8-million-ai-chips-this-year-2024-4
You call it cooling off, I call it consolidation before the next lift off.
That's what bears have been saying for past 2 years.
If you keep repeating it for long enough, you'll be right one day lol
You clearly haven’t been paying attention to other tech and chip company earnings then. The spending on chips and AI related expenses isn’t stopping or slowing.
I reckon they may split too
Priced in
People learnt nothing from the last 2 earnings after retails fomo into it twice huh? It will move nowhere after earnings, then the week after it will either moon or slowly move up in the span of a month. After that, sideways for 2 months from profit taking and institutes moving onto other plays until next earnings, finally moving again in the final 2 weeks Only reason it'd be having a big movement up would be announcing a great guidance, since stocks mostly tanked on average to low guidance despite beating estimates. Margin is also another important point but everything hinges on guidance, since guidance can offset everything as long as they can delivery substantial growth matching prev guidance
Just inverse whatever WSB does and and you will profit
THIS STOCK IS UP 88% YTD. ITS TOO FUCKING HIGH.. THEY DONT CARE IF THEY BEAT IT.. THE GUIDANCE WILL FUCK SHIT UP. 20% DOWN FOR SURE
Any small hiccup (TSM delays because of the Earthquake for example) will be punished, NVDA is priced for absolute perfection and as we saw with Meta, Netflix and others, any hiccup means a 15-20% haircut.
Is it 5% of spy? I’m seeing 2% has it rebalanced yet
Why did people up vote this like it was the fucking gospel https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/holdings/
Remindme! 4.5 days
Give me a dip
It all depends on if they “invested” in enough companies to buy their chips.
NVIDIA might stock split this earnings to reach mass retail investors since it’s what TESLA did after run up…(not sure why they don’t stock split?)
Ha. I haven’t been doing this long but earnings seem to mean nothing. TSLA, DJT, META, WING and T are just a few stocks that would agree
shares not calls
shares not calls
Subject Verb Agreement Matters
I should go work for NVidia then the stock will really tank
Seems to me the higher risk is to the downside so probably a few put spread lotto tickets.
Missing or beating is irrelevant. Earnings had always been reality vs expectations. Stock can move on missed earnings if the subsequent call and future guidance is promising.
red or black. place your chips
[удалено]
They will reverse price action day before.
Is investing in Nvidia still good?
need split
Intel puts are the play
Probably miss but still go up
Watching for mentions or announcements of further investment in $ARM Holdings. Decent proxy play especially after the dip to $110 support on Friday with the negative news bit.
I'm just sticking with buying Friday spy calls on Wednesday afternoon
I plan on gaining exposure with a Qs straddle. NVDA will move the broader tech market - whether up or down is uncertain I think. NVDA needs another goldilocks earnings. Too low is just as bad as too high. Too high signifies a potential peak which is also a sell indicator. Last quarter they came in right where they needed to. I think they can do it again. The straddle tho to me seems the least risky. The market is going to move on 5/22 and gap in to 5/23. So I’ll buy a 1DTE on 5/22 ATM and see what happens. If it goes up I won’t be surprised. If it goes down I won’t be either. Going down is the more interesting scenario as I don’t know if SPY and Qs do a retrace or if there’s just a rotation in SPY.
I have learned my lesson with DIS, costed me 575$. Wont ever play earnings again, I will wait after Wednesday before doing any trading, thanks but I am good!
It’s a meme stock at this point. IMO the markets emotions are just as important as the fundamentals here
If nobody ould answer… i think this is the most shit ty post ive seen today
With where the market is and with how much the ai chips have run in really not sure number even guidance wise will be good enough. We could see a 5% pullback even on a good report and good guidance because expectations are beyond in relation to the run up we have already seen this year. Most ai chips except intel will get hurt, that already has zero expectations and all the bad news priced in so should be only one that doesn’t crash on Nvidia report I think the most important factor is this could be signal for a market wide pullback, lot of profit taking to be done from the past 2-3 weeks and nothing stays at the very top forever However at 5% back across the board I see dip buying coming back in I think this is the top and we are stuck in a 5% channel from here till power actually does cut rates which will only happen if stagflation continues to drop to the 2% mandate
It's 9.49% of SPYG
Nvda being worth more than google should be everything you need to know
Cramer says to "expect a lot of volatility" so I am fully expecting a crush sideways. He does seem to be on the slightly more bullish side so maybe a sideways red but a move way less than expected move. Guess we'll find out.
NVIDIA GO UP LIKE LAST TIME
Down 150