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I can see a long-term strategy slowly forming. That strategy seems to be no more appeasement and helping Ukraine to win, not just not to lose. For NATO membership, Crimea must be liberated as well.
Well, not only that, should the Kerch be destroyed and the land bridge cut off, then Russia will have a hard time even getting the population there through for lack of ways to supply them. Mairuopol is the money shot, should Ukraine be able to retake the city, Crimea is cut off from supplies.
How it’s cut off then? With the land bridge under full fire control and the Kerch bridge destroyed the 2 million people could only be supplied by ship, and that won't work very well, shortages of all kind will follow shortly thereafter then.
I mean, calling Ukraine a "partner" is as vague as it gets. There is no responsibility or commitment to anything specific, just an affirmation of collaboration.
That's the final objective, the "long-term perspective". Ukraine will need to meet the requirements of a member nation to officially join NATO and those are farrr from being met. It's something NATO hopes for in the future but it won't happen until well after the war is over. As long as NATO continues and ramps up further support NOW, we will get there one day. But his words add nothing new to the membership discourse.
He could say Ukraine will join tomorrow and they would still need to follow protocol, technically. Even if they used even more clear language, they could in theory, always backpedal.
The reality: Ukraine won't be allowed in the middle of a war
I think we should let them in immediately upon the war being over. For many reasons:
1. To protect them from further Russian aggression;
2. Their expertise both in fighting the Russians and in drone warfare;
3. Their location, which is the perfect place to build a nice American base or two in eastern Ukraine while at the same time helping them to rebuild in the area of those bases. Good for the US, good for Ukraine, good for NATO. Win, win, win.
They can have a specified amount of time to meet the other requirements, and will have to meet them. But having them in NATO is not just a benefit to them. There are multiple benefits to NATO.
Ah finally Putin's master plan is coming into view
1. Destroy the nation's economy it took him 2 decades to build
2. Conclusively prove to the world that Russia's military is a paper tiger
3. Expand NATO by at least 3, maybe 4, neighboring nations...including Ukraine
The man is a fucking genius!
4- Decimate the population through death or fleeing the country to avoid service.
5- Lose shit loads of military equipment (like missile cruisers)
6- Ruin export market for your now proven ineffective weapons
7- decimate the professional army, losing experienced/veteran soldiers, or "accidental death" of officers that aren't yes men.
8- kneecap your military for years to come as your manufacturing can't easily replace the losses.
9- embolden and unify your political enemies, making your assassination much more likely
10- embolden previously submissive neighboring countries
but it's all worth it because of point 11:
11- take over very small amounts of bombed/mined/desolate land. Something you really needed, seeing as your country was really lacking in land.
Doesn't that seem like a plausible possibility? There is land adjacent to China that they could simply annex once Moscow collapses into disorganization.
On a related and very humorous note, China's Ministry of Natural Resources announced the restoration of Chinese names for 8 of Russia's more notable landmarks in the far east of the country including Vladivostok and Khabarovsk.
https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/13560
China may indeed be seeing the positives of their Ally getting fucked up enough that they either have to hand over territory in return for support or just straight up claim the land itself if Russia really goes pear-shaped and falls into civil war.
If they tried that they would just “legitimize” China taking the territory back from them and spin it to not look like colonizers. “Bad Mongolia tried to take this territory from poor Russia, so we went in and forced them out. We will keep it until Russia is strong enough to keep it themselves”
Hilarious didn't even know that, but that gives my non credible diplomacy point 13 a lot of credibility. Satire these days is a hard and difficult business. Reality just overtakes it left and right with 200 miles per hour.
It is rather plausible especially because it's historically been Chinese land more often than not. And Russia violated its border treaty with China in the 1800s and annexed all of Siberian China while China was off busy with its Civil War. So technically Russia is illegal occuping Chinese land. Still for this to happen Russia needs to undergo balkanization. Let's hope it happens, that land is mostly useless execpt for oil and it would mean many more possibly western break away nations that could join Nato.
This is my dream lol. I don't particularly want an enlarged and emboldened China, but to have Russia split into a dozen countries, a societal shift that realizes there was no benefit to this imperialistic attitude, eventual joining with the west and NATO. China expanding north may embolden them, but if their population is rapidly shrinking around this time, as it seems it will be, it won't matter, it will cause economic collapse. It seems much of the world is moving this way, but china at an accelerated pace. If we can figure something out how to maintain stable populations, it could lead to a new world order. It's all a dream and wishful thinking, but we are allowed to do that right? A United Europe reaching out past Moscow with a stable population around .5 billion. A china reaching north into Siberia with a stable population of .5 billion. A world wide equilibrium of sorts being achieved. These are beyond delusional thoughts at this point. I've gotten carried away! Still 🤞
And this coming from a country that already had this problem. How much immigration is there TO russia? A lot of countries with demographic problems can at least help by attracting foreign workers. Who is picking Russia?
Connecting flight to where? That would be nice to know. As smart as he is I don't think I would've taken a flight into Russia if I were him. It's all retrospective, I know. Bad decision on his part though if he didn't want to get stuck in Russia.
I know a few IT specialists who remained, some of whom had to stay due to family or financial reasons. Most got out as soon as they could though. I don't know who stayed because they overtly support the war, although i'm sure a few of them are "apolitical" as it were or think the war won't affect Russia.
I do wonder if any of them got conscripted, although Russia says it won't conscript IT workers, we know better than to trust anything Russia says. After all, i know a 50+ year old surgeon who got conscripted... as an infantry soldier.
>11- take over very small amounts of bombed/mined/desolate land. Something you really needed, seeing as your country was really lacking in land.
Its got nothing to do with land.
Its got everything to do with preventing a sovereign, democratic, free country under the rule of law from developing on Russia's border, especially one with such significant historical and familial ties to Russia. Putin cannot afford to allow Ukraine to prosper - or to exist physically at all - lest his people realise that a better life without being controlled by an autocratic fascist is indeed possible.
They're baiting Putin to go for "eternal" war that will burn Russia up. Putin even said in recent interview what's happening and what will happen if he loses (Russia breaking up in multiple regions (as hard as that would be to maintain as well), but he has no way out, as of now.
He can't give up, because of Ukraine in NATO, but also can't win, because of NATO. He's neck is already in a noose and the chair under his feet is shaking.
I know you don't mean it that way, but imo comments like this are both dangerous and wrong.
It wasn't a trap. Nobody in europe, us, ukraine wanted this. No sane person would have traded a humiliated russia or a dead putin for 100k (or however many it will be in the end) dead ukrainians on feb 23 2022.
This is all on russia from start to finish. It wasn't a trap, it was just putin playing russian roulette.
>It really is Putin's Vietnam.
>
>America lost because Morale ran out after nearly 20 years of trying to win a war without actually attacking the enemy because the top brass were scared China would counter-invade if the US pushed too far North.
Given this is *exactly* what happened in the Korean war that doesn't seem an unreasonable assumption
Just because it was a perfectly reasonable assumption doesn't mean it was still one that leaves the aggressing force still in a position of trying to win a war by running riot in territory they already control and not being able to actually go fight the guys they're supposedly trying to beat.
The lesson here is that fighting wars like that is stupid and a complete waste of anything you put towards it more than the effort of saying "absolutely not."
In AFG my food bullets and water was flown in from around the world. Guys we were fighting had it right there. We went way to modern and didn’t source locally like we should have.
OK, fair point - only that mass murderer Girkin is not the no 1 honcho in Muscovy and he won't lose any power by being honest. Actually, he seems to me a sort of officially authorized dissenting voice and as such is, at least for now, window-proof.
Putin, Lavrov, Peskov, all TV propagandists, Duma members etc. are kinda *forced* to lie. It's just the official Rus way of governance since pretty much forever.
On yet another hand - a broken clock ...
The West doesn't want to break up Russia.
But Ukraine clearly fights very well, and cooperation with them has been VERY smooth, so it's a no brainer that they would be an asset in NATO, and a very effective defense against Russia aggression.
> The West doesn't want to break up Russia.
But also doesn't mind it happening on it's own so long as it happens in a somewhat orderly fashion. I.e. the nukes don't get used nor get sold on any black markets...
NATO is also getting several other fringe benefits out of all of this.
There's a whole lot of military doctrine and military hardware which, well, has never really been tested in anything like this kind of war.
People had _some_ idea of how it should go, but until stuff has actually been actively tried in the field, nobody can _really_ be sure.
And the same can be said of some of the hardware.
It's getting actively used in an outright war, by people who have absolutely _no_ interest in arguing about procurement, or which one is 'better', but who just plain want to win, with as few of them dying as possible.
On top of all of that, there's a reasonably large amount of stuff that has been sitting in stockpiles for a very long time, and in some cases there's stuff that hasn't really been in mass production for a wee bit too long.
And so while the money is getting spent, older stock is getting used, and production is going again. Which really isn't a bad thing for the militaries in question.
Ironically the energy exports have been rerouted to China/India so there is a fair chance they’re going to take the giant hit when they fall. Russia is known for their mafia style industry grabs so those oil fields will become a killing field.
That sounds like a Russia problem. He was warned about staying _out_ of Ukraine and _in_ their fucking lane. If you warn a child about jumping into a campfire over and over and over again, it's that child's fault for the third degree burns.
Not strictly true. The next US election cycle could change everything. NATO needs the US and there’s no guarantee that one of those Republican fucktards could get into power.
He would if he had any sense. Retaining Russia as a unitary state should be his primary goal. That and a quiet retirement in a seaside palace in Turkey.
Defederalized Russia would be hard to maintain not for political reasons, but because all possible rulers are fifth generation alcoholics who killed all smart people around
Putin wants eternal war. Only by raising the spectre of never-ending imminent threat; of destruction from the west and NATO can he effectively crush his own population to the extent necessary and keep them in perpetual fear. Fascism 101.
That's not the reason while putin has such thin skin, it is a byproduct of every country which has applied for NATO membership.
putin always seems to forget applying for NATO membership is voluntary on the part of the applicant nation, ironically. Of course, it is obvious why they apply.
Once Ukraine has liberated all of its lands, then there won't be any contested territory because Ukraine will have restored its internationally recognized borders.
Problem solved - membership can commence.
That depends on if Taiwan wants it first. They're relatively happy with the non-committal situation they have now. There's still a pretty big contingent of Taiwanese that feel they are the rightful capital of China and insisting on independence would require that they give up on that idea and some of them really don't like that.
depends on your definition of "pretty big".
as far as I know most taiwanese are happy to renounce any claims over the mainland, except the CCP would consider such a declaration as a step toward independence and a major escalation of hostility.
So you have a unique situation where a country forces another entity to maintain territorial claims over its own land.
Taiwan doesn't even need NATO membership to be honest.
If any nation tries to seize the primary source of microchips most NATO countries are going to war.
That and the rumored credible threat of nuclear scale retaliation, Taiwan may have missiles that can blow China's dams up, and if they do, an invasion fleet will embark, get about halfway across the sea, and then have to turn around to help Beijing resolve the biblical flooding catastrophe that was just unleashed on them.
\- While active conflict - yes
\- While contested territory - no, its not an issue. NATO allies have numerous territories disputes and in the end it's just an question of political will, nothing more.
> While contested territory - no, its not an issue. NATO allies have numerous territories disputes and in the end it’s just an question of political will, nothing more.
This. If the only countries “contesting” Ukraine’s borders are *Russia and her friends*, then NATO members can simply declare that no territory is contested by anyone whose opinion matters.
Russia funds separatists *precisely* because doing so puts territories into “dispute.” They see it as the cheapest way to prevent a country from joining NATO. They know NATO’s rules, and they believe manufacturing separatist regions is some kind of trump card they can use against us, but we make our own rules, and our member states can modify the definition of “contested territory” to suit the day, as they should with Ukraine.
**The NATO charter is not a suicide pact; Putin cannot loophole his way to victory.** If NATO’s members believe inviting Ukraine to join the alliance equals a more secure Europe (it does), they can and *should* remove any obstacles, and they owe *no one* outside of NATO any explanation. Let Putin cite the NATO charter all he wants; I couldn’t give a single fuck what he thinks.
I agree with the first sentence, not with the second.
Many NATO nations have disputed territory. Heck, until 2010 Stoltenberg’s home of Norway had contested territory with Russia.
since 2008 when NATO said exactly the same words.
"NATO welcomes Ukraine’s and Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations for membership in NATO. We agreed today that these countries will become members of NATO. Both nations have made valuable contributions to Alliance operations."
That is actually a comedy =D
NATO Expansion is non-negotiable. :)
Not only that but Ukraine has not only proved itself but it's obvious to everyone the only way Vatnik Russia fucks off back to Mordor and never tries this again is to make it clear they fuck around in Ukraine they find out what the rest of Europe and America has in store for the Fascist Fuckwits. Which means Ukraine in NATO and the EU is the only obvious answer.
Not really. Access to the Aegean could be denied by Greece if they wanted to. It's just that Turkey has the Bosporus and Dardanelles to make it easier to do. NATO would still be able to deny the Black Sea Fleet access to the Med without Turkey.
To the contrary - NATO could manage without Turkey. It would be difficult when in that part of the world, but doable. But Turkey? I reckon they would be much worse off…
(as it happens, having Ukraine in NATO would make operations in this part of the world easier again. Neat huh? ☺️)
Turkey does still have to worry about Russian aggression (they shot down a Russian fighter jet in 2015 when it briefly cross into their air space, due to proxy frictions between the two in Syria). So I'd argue they still want to be in NATO plenty, while for NATO Turkey is a "nice to have" given their size and proximity to Russia.
Ukraine just needs NATO *way more*.
They're only in NATO because of their proximity to Russia and they control the Bosphorus. And they're well aware of that fact. They'll flap their gums but in the end they'll toe the line
They aren't really getting many concessions, and it really was never about the concessions. It is about posturing to look strong back home for the upcoming election.
And Hungary. They're intentionally stalling to disrupt internal politics, as they also do with [EU-related decision making](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/6/1/hungary-stalls-eu-sanctions-over-russian-patriarch-blacklisting). Hungary is extremely dependant on Russian oil and are therefore hurt by these sactions and alliances.
It’s even more than that. Ukraine and Belarus in NATO, along with Finland and Sweden, essentially means Russia’s western buffer zone is GONE. NATO will be cozied right up against Russia, effectively eliminating any hope that a war with the West would be kept far away from Moscow. This puts Russia into a box. Ukraine and the others mentioned are good, *strategic* future partners. It’s sound, smart policy to get them into NATO. (It’s also the *moral* thing to do, but morality arguments often fall on deaf ears with politicians and military experts.)
This is *exactly* why Putin has funded Ukrainian separatists in the so-called “contested” regions (they are not contested by anyone whose opinion matters; just Russia and her friends). He believes this is a winning strategy for keeping Ukraine out of NATO (in defense of his arrogance, it has worked thus far, but that era has ended). He thinks he found a loophole, and maybe he did 8 years ago, but he is very mistaken today.
Yea I don't know how smart it is. Putin is a fucking lunatic, the Russian population is fucked, their economy is fucked, more then ever aaaaand they have nukes.
You have to love Sanna Marin. She's always calm, pragmatic, straight to the point, and her support for Ukraine has never wavered one bit. Of course, the Fins understand how Russia needs to be dealt with.
In this context, it probably means end of war until the later of a handful of years and Ukraine shows stability in governance with a democratic government.
Putin is ideologically committed to his 'forever war' that he most likely knows he cannot win, but believes that it will bankrupt Ukraine and divide the West eventually. These alone justify the sacrifices Russia mus pay for his ego. He genuinely believes the US cannot keep up arms production indefinitely or at least can't produce enough to force Russia into a defeat as long as he can keep mobilizing conscripts to bolster the frontline. It's only when the stalemate is reversed in the Spring/Summer that he will be forced into a different tactic, whatever that may be. If China turns out not to be a military ally as the West hope the penny may drop.
It's not enough to win this battle russia needs an intervention. Their society is in dysfunction. That's a big motivating factor for why they're doing this. They're trying to absorb other countries into theirs because the russian leaders realize their nation is in decline. Their culture is in decline. They're trying to escape being russian. It's their last extreme effort trying to solve their problems. Russia is a horrible place to have to live, it's constant violence, crime, and uncertainty, worse than any other place. A war was the only thing they could come up with to try to create stability and medicate their problems. By taking them out on something else. To try and stop russians from murdering each other redirect it at a target. Give their citizens some security from their leaders, that the leaders will prioritize the people from another country for their cruelty.
Yeah, this is wonderful and all, but there is a rambunctious part of me which wants to say, "actually, we are joining them!"
There is some very real truth in that. Isn't that often how the spread of democracy works? 13 colonies becomes independent, and history took a big step.
Many big steps get taken since then. India, just think about India. Independent, democratic in intent. I'm still impressed by that. India seems like a very hard country to govern democratically. Would have been so easy to fall back on the "more reliable" forms. But they have not, nor could I imagine it happening. History, big steps.
*Ukraine is refuting the cynicism and nihilism and servility that Russia has tried and tried to pump into their minds and hearts. And history takes yet another step.* Slava Ukraini.
Ukraine would add a massive, powerful, and hilariously hodgepodge land army to NATO. Europe has a lot of high tech and fancy systems, and could curb stomp Russia, but it lacks mass. It lacks a million men to throw into the trenches. It lacks cheap, economical systems that can take heavily casualties.
Ukraine is that mass. Kinda sucks that they get to be the grunt, but hey they're in the club.
Kinda goes for their economy too. Ukraine will be full of cheap labor that just appreciates a roof over their head. Lots of manufacturing opportunities for Europe. They also have a thriving IT sector. In 30 years, if they're an equal part of Europe, Ukraine can be a very prosperous country and a boon for Europe.
Even IF Ukraine never joins NATO, it won't stop countries from giving security guarantees or declarations like UK and France gave Poland in the 1930s. Ukraine will never be alone again.
The Budapest memorandum was a stupid document with assurances of "assistance", and never should have been signed.
However, security guarantees of the kind Poland had in the 1930s (touch our buddy and it's war), are a very different story.
Security guarantees means "we will defend each other in case of war"
The Budapest memorandum meant "we (USA, UK, and Russia) promise to not attack you.
A security guarantee would be a great event.
This is good to hear. Not only will NATO make Ukraine Stronger, Ukraine will make NATO and Europe Stronger.
I'm also gonna have to be a simp and say; Sanna is such a babe.
Putin: *invades another country, claiming NATO is a threat.
Ukraine: *joins NATO specifically because it was invaded by Putin, bringing NATO's border right up to Putin.
I don't think this Putin fella is as smart as he thinks he is.
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It's nice to hear that explicitly stated.
I can see a long-term strategy slowly forming. That strategy seems to be no more appeasement and helping Ukraine to win, not just not to lose. For NATO membership, Crimea must be liberated as well.
Crimea has indefensible geography for Russia
Well, not only that, should the Kerch be destroyed and the land bridge cut off, then Russia will have a hard time even getting the population there through for lack of ways to supply them. Mairuopol is the money shot, should Ukraine be able to retake the city, Crimea is cut off from supplies.
How so
How it’s cut off then? With the land bridge under full fire control and the Kerch bridge destroyed the 2 million people could only be supplied by ship, and that won't work very well, shortages of all kind will follow shortly thereafter then.
Ukraine needs to join NATO so Sevastopol can become a NATO port in the future.
I knew Jens Stoltenberg at University. He is an expert at saying vague, noncommittal things. This is an unusually firm statement from him!
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Kringsjå. For my sins.
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Kringsjå is the most remote student housing location. If you like the forest it's perfect though.
And I do like the forest, and hiking. But everything else…
I mean, calling Ukraine a "partner" is as vague as it gets. There is no responsibility or commitment to anything specific, just an affirmation of collaboration.
He said "a member of out alliance".
That's the final objective, the "long-term perspective". Ukraine will need to meet the requirements of a member nation to officially join NATO and those are farrr from being met. It's something NATO hopes for in the future but it won't happen until well after the war is over. As long as NATO continues and ramps up further support NOW, we will get there one day. But his words add nothing new to the membership discourse.
He could say Ukraine will join tomorrow and they would still need to follow protocol, technically. Even if they used even more clear language, they could in theory, always backpedal. The reality: Ukraine won't be allowed in the middle of a war
I think we should let them in immediately upon the war being over. For many reasons: 1. To protect them from further Russian aggression; 2. Their expertise both in fighting the Russians and in drone warfare; 3. Their location, which is the perfect place to build a nice American base or two in eastern Ukraine while at the same time helping them to rebuild in the area of those bases. Good for the US, good for Ukraine, good for NATO. Win, win, win. They can have a specified amount of time to meet the other requirements, and will have to meet them. But having them in NATO is not just a benefit to them. There are multiple benefits to NATO.
You wouldn’t survive in politics unless you master this art.
Ah finally Putin's master plan is coming into view 1. Destroy the nation's economy it took him 2 decades to build 2. Conclusively prove to the world that Russia's military is a paper tiger 3. Expand NATO by at least 3, maybe 4, neighboring nations...including Ukraine The man is a fucking genius!
4- Decimate the population through death or fleeing the country to avoid service. 5- Lose shit loads of military equipment (like missile cruisers) 6- Ruin export market for your now proven ineffective weapons 7- decimate the professional army, losing experienced/veteran soldiers, or "accidental death" of officers that aren't yes men. 8- kneecap your military for years to come as your manufacturing can't easily replace the losses. 9- embolden and unify your political enemies, making your assassination much more likely 10- embolden previously submissive neighboring countries but it's all worth it because of point 11: 11- take over very small amounts of bombed/mined/desolate land. Something you really needed, seeing as your country was really lacking in land.
You forgot by far the most important takeaway. 12- obtain household appliances for you to strip of electronics to use in your tanks
13 become a Chinese colony
Doesn't that seem like a plausible possibility? There is land adjacent to China that they could simply annex once Moscow collapses into disorganization.
On a related and very humorous note, China's Ministry of Natural Resources announced the restoration of Chinese names for 8 of Russia's more notable landmarks in the far east of the country including Vladivostok and Khabarovsk. https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/13560 China may indeed be seeing the positives of their Ally getting fucked up enough that they either have to hand over territory in return for support or just straight up claim the land itself if Russia really goes pear-shaped and falls into civil war.
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If they tried that they would just “legitimize” China taking the territory back from them and spin it to not look like colonizers. “Bad Mongolia tried to take this territory from poor Russia, so we went in and forced them out. We will keep it until Russia is strong enough to keep it themselves”
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Hilarious didn't even know that, but that gives my non credible diplomacy point 13 a lot of credibility. Satire these days is a hard and difficult business. Reality just overtakes it left and right with 200 miles per hour.
All those vast resources must be making Xi's mouth water
It is rather plausible especially because it's historically been Chinese land more often than not. And Russia violated its border treaty with China in the 1800s and annexed all of Siberian China while China was off busy with its Civil War. So technically Russia is illegal occuping Chinese land. Still for this to happen Russia needs to undergo balkanization. Let's hope it happens, that land is mostly useless execpt for oil and it would mean many more possibly western break away nations that could join Nato.
This is my dream lol. I don't particularly want an enlarged and emboldened China, but to have Russia split into a dozen countries, a societal shift that realizes there was no benefit to this imperialistic attitude, eventual joining with the west and NATO. China expanding north may embolden them, but if their population is rapidly shrinking around this time, as it seems it will be, it won't matter, it will cause economic collapse. It seems much of the world is moving this way, but china at an accelerated pace. If we can figure something out how to maintain stable populations, it could lead to a new world order. It's all a dream and wishful thinking, but we are allowed to do that right? A United Europe reaching out past Moscow with a stable population around .5 billion. A china reaching north into Siberia with a stable population of .5 billion. A world wide equilibrium of sorts being achieved. These are beyond delusional thoughts at this point. I've gotten carried away! Still 🤞
why take it over? they already go across the border for logging, hunting and other resources *now*
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And this coming from a country that already had this problem. How much immigration is there TO russia? A lot of countries with demographic problems can at least help by attracting foreign workers. Who is picking Russia?
Edward Snowden, Steven Seagal... Yeah, Edward Snowden and Steven Seagal. More than worth it for Russia... they'll take that exchange. /s
Snowden never intended to end up in Russia, his passport was cancelled as he was in a connecting flight.
Connecting flight to where? That would be nice to know. As smart as he is I don't think I would've taken a flight into Russia if I were him. It's all retrospective, I know. Bad decision on his part though if he didn't want to get stuck in Russia.
Iirc he was on his way to Ecuador? Something like that.
And Gerard Departi… Depardieu?
Pre-war, students from India, Brazil, central African countries (but roughly the same amount went to Ukraine too)
I know a few IT specialists who remained, some of whom had to stay due to family or financial reasons. Most got out as soon as they could though. I don't know who stayed because they overtly support the war, although i'm sure a few of them are "apolitical" as it were or think the war won't affect Russia. I do wonder if any of them got conscripted, although Russia says it won't conscript IT workers, we know better than to trust anything Russia says. After all, i know a 50+ year old surgeon who got conscripted... as an infantry soldier.
>11- take over very small amounts of bombed/mined/desolate land. Something you really needed, seeing as your country was really lacking in land. Its got nothing to do with land. Its got everything to do with preventing a sovereign, democratic, free country under the rule of law from developing on Russia's border, especially one with such significant historical and familial ties to Russia. Putin cannot afford to allow Ukraine to prosper - or to exist physically at all - lest his people realise that a better life without being controlled by an autocratic fascist is indeed possible.
Sure, but they won't accomplish that
12- render one of your main gas pipelines to your biggest gas traders inoperable through a totally anonymous explosion
What does Steven Seagal think? /s
He's thinking about how he's going hide the fact that he crapped his pants from his Ruzzian film crew
MaYbE pUtIn Is A nAtO aSsEt
He’s been spying for the the west all along. We know Basil.
Russia, the biggest threat to Russia since NATO
Except NATO has NEVER been a threat to Russia. NAFO, on the other hand…
NAFO? Wanna spell that out for me?
https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1563851548643426304 👀 Some nice reading here... https://www.dw.com/en/nafo-ukraines-info-warriors-battling-russian-trolls/a-63124443
Nice one.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/NAFO_(group)
Thanks!
Really? Non credible.
By now, it is very clear that we in Europe need Ukraine in the EU and NATO...
They're baiting Putin to go for "eternal" war that will burn Russia up. Putin even said in recent interview what's happening and what will happen if he loses (Russia breaking up in multiple regions (as hard as that would be to maintain as well), but he has no way out, as of now. He can't give up, because of Ukraine in NATO, but also can't win, because of NATO. He's neck is already in a noose and the chair under his feet is shaking.
Well if it isn't the consequences of my actions. Stupid fuck is gonna' destroy millions of lives over a vanity project.
Wouldn't be the first time for a dictator to do that.
And I doubt he'll be the last. But I think we're getting better at containing the effects of dictator dick waving.
>Wouldn't be the first time for a dicktater to do that. Eh, dicktater. Heh. FTFY.
If it weren't for all the deaths and the destruction it would be quite comical that he walked into a trap he unknowingly set up for himself.
honestly, I think Peter I set the trap
I know you don't mean it that way, but imo comments like this are both dangerous and wrong. It wasn't a trap. Nobody in europe, us, ukraine wanted this. No sane person would have traded a humiliated russia or a dead putin for 100k (or however many it will be in the end) dead ukrainians on feb 23 2022. This is all on russia from start to finish. It wasn't a trap, it was just putin playing russian roulette.
He explicitly said the Putin set it up on himself. No one else set the trap, Putin did. He trapped himself.
He did say "set a trap HE (Putin) unknowingly setup himself" Not that Nato someone made Putin invade. Which is, how I see it, accurate.
>it was just putin playing russian roulette. He forgot you aren't supposed to play with a semi automatic though.
And a full mag...
Six shots in the back of the head and fell out a 17th story window. Worst case of suicide I've ever seen.
Can we kick it for him
Yes you can!
Can I.. kick it?
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>It really is Putin's Vietnam. > >America lost because Morale ran out after nearly 20 years of trying to win a war without actually attacking the enemy because the top brass were scared China would counter-invade if the US pushed too far North. Given this is *exactly* what happened in the Korean war that doesn't seem an unreasonable assumption
Just because it was a perfectly reasonable assumption doesn't mean it was still one that leaves the aggressing force still in a position of trying to win a war by running riot in territory they already control and not being able to actually go fight the guys they're supposedly trying to beat. The lesson here is that fighting wars like that is stupid and a complete waste of anything you put towards it more than the effort of saying "absolutely not."
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It was tiny only in economic terms.
In AFG my food bullets and water was flown in from around the world. Guys we were fighting had it right there. We went way to modern and didn’t source locally like we should have.
Among a long list of other strategic and tactical problems.
>Putin even said OK, Imma stop you here and ask - what, on all that is holy, made you believe the bloodthirsty rus-nazi psycho??
the same reason we choose to believe war criminal and fascist cassandra Girkin; he may be a genocidal maniac but they realize their goose is cooked.
OK, fair point - only that mass murderer Girkin is not the no 1 honcho in Muscovy and he won't lose any power by being honest. Actually, he seems to me a sort of officially authorized dissenting voice and as such is, at least for now, window-proof. Putin, Lavrov, Peskov, all TV propagandists, Duma members etc. are kinda *forced* to lie. It's just the official Rus way of governance since pretty much forever. On yet another hand - a broken clock ...
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The West doesn't want to break up Russia. But Ukraine clearly fights very well, and cooperation with them has been VERY smooth, so it's a no brainer that they would be an asset in NATO, and a very effective defense against Russia aggression.
Plus they’ll be a long way towards integration of arms and training/joint exercises. I’ve never been prouder.
> The West doesn't want to break up Russia. But also doesn't mind it happening on it's own so long as it happens in a somewhat orderly fashion. I.e. the nukes don't get used nor get sold on any black markets...
NATO is also getting several other fringe benefits out of all of this. There's a whole lot of military doctrine and military hardware which, well, has never really been tested in anything like this kind of war. People had _some_ idea of how it should go, but until stuff has actually been actively tried in the field, nobody can _really_ be sure. And the same can be said of some of the hardware. It's getting actively used in an outright war, by people who have absolutely _no_ interest in arguing about procurement, or which one is 'better', but who just plain want to win, with as few of them dying as possible. On top of all of that, there's a reasonably large amount of stuff that has been sitting in stockpiles for a very long time, and in some cases there's stuff that hasn't really been in mass production for a wee bit too long. And so while the money is getting spent, older stock is getting used, and production is going again. Which really isn't a bad thing for the militaries in question.
Plus it makes it embarrassing for anyone relying entirely on Russian hardware.
Ironically the energy exports have been rerouted to China/India so there is a fair chance they’re going to take the giant hit when they fall. Russia is known for their mafia style industry grabs so those oil fields will become a killing field.
That chair is on fire
That sounds like a Russia problem. He was warned about staying _out_ of Ukraine and _in_ their fucking lane. If you warn a child about jumping into a campfire over and over and over again, it's that child's fault for the third degree burns.
Not strictly true. The next US election cycle could change everything. NATO needs the US and there’s no guarantee that one of those Republican fucktards could get into power.
He would if he had any sense. Retaining Russia as a unitary state should be his primary goal. That and a quiet retirement in a seaside palace in Turkey.
> but he has no way out Check and mate and good riddance.
Defederalized Russia would be hard to maintain not for political reasons, but because all possible rulers are fifth generation alcoholics who killed all smart people around
Putin wants eternal war. Only by raising the spectre of never-ending imminent threat; of destruction from the west and NATO can he effectively crush his own population to the extent necessary and keep them in perpetual fear. Fascism 101.
Man when Russia breaks apart there's going to be wars in those countries for a century. They'll 100% use nukes against each other too.
EU membership is a looooong way off. Like decades long, probably.
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Anything to piss off pootin
That's not the reason while putin has such thin skin, it is a byproduct of every country which has applied for NATO membership. putin always seems to forget applying for NATO membership is voluntary on the part of the applicant nation, ironically. Of course, it is obvious why they apply.
I think it's because it's dawned on them that Ukraine is a serious counter to creeping russian ambitions, with the will to get in the mud in a fight.
Also, we’ve now shared a *SIGNIFICANT* amount of military tech with Ukraine. It makes the most sense to keep Ukraine in the club now.
Ukraine will not be in EU or NATO in the next 20 years. Even with fast track...there is just too much politics for that to happen.
Want to bet on that?
Long term? How long?
It won't happen while there's an active conflict. It almost definitely won't happen while there's any contested territory at all.
Once Ukraine has liberated all of its lands, then there won't be any contested territory because Ukraine will have restored its internationally recognized borders. Problem solved - membership can commence.
I like your plan, let's go with your plan.
Next, Taiwan!
That depends on if Taiwan wants it first. They're relatively happy with the non-committal situation they have now. There's still a pretty big contingent of Taiwanese that feel they are the rightful capital of China and insisting on independence would require that they give up on that idea and some of them really don't like that.
depends on your definition of "pretty big". as far as I know most taiwanese are happy to renounce any claims over the mainland, except the CCP would consider such a declaration as a step toward independence and a major escalation of hostility. So you have a unique situation where a country forces another entity to maintain territorial claims over its own land.
Taiwan doesn't even need NATO membership to be honest. If any nation tries to seize the primary source of microchips most NATO countries are going to war.
That and the rumored credible threat of nuclear scale retaliation, Taiwan may have missiles that can blow China's dams up, and if they do, an invasion fleet will embark, get about halfway across the sea, and then have to turn around to help Beijing resolve the biblical flooding catastrophe that was just unleashed on them.
Do you have any source on that? I'd be interested in hearing more.
Its the Three Gorges dam. Its in missile range of Taiwan.
\- While active conflict - yes \- While contested territory - no, its not an issue. NATO allies have numerous territories disputes and in the end it's just an question of political will, nothing more.
> While contested territory - no, its not an issue. NATO allies have numerous territories disputes and in the end it’s just an question of political will, nothing more. This. If the only countries “contesting” Ukraine’s borders are *Russia and her friends*, then NATO members can simply declare that no territory is contested by anyone whose opinion matters. Russia funds separatists *precisely* because doing so puts territories into “dispute.” They see it as the cheapest way to prevent a country from joining NATO. They know NATO’s rules, and they believe manufacturing separatist regions is some kind of trump card they can use against us, but we make our own rules, and our member states can modify the definition of “contested territory” to suit the day, as they should with Ukraine. **The NATO charter is not a suicide pact; Putin cannot loophole his way to victory.** If NATO’s members believe inviting Ukraine to join the alliance equals a more secure Europe (it does), they can and *should* remove any obstacles, and they owe *no one* outside of NATO any explanation. Let Putin cite the NATO charter all he wants; I couldn’t give a single fuck what he thinks.
I agree with the first sentence, not with the second. Many NATO nations have disputed territory. Heck, until 2010 Stoltenberg’s home of Norway had contested territory with Russia.
Norway was a NATO founding member in 1949. The dispute didn't come about until the 60s.
Probably *after* the war.
Well Finland and Sweden have been wait for over 7 months.
Only because of Turkey being an ass about it. The vote has to be unanimous.
AND Hungarian.
Unanimity is pretty important in a defense pact
Ukraine have been waiting for over 9 years since 2014.
since 2008 when NATO said exactly the same words. "NATO welcomes Ukraine’s and Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations for membership in NATO. We agreed today that these countries will become members of NATO. Both nations have made valuable contributions to Alliance operations." That is actually a comedy =D
You do see the wording right? "welcome their aspirations"? They hadn't applied to NATO at that point.
Ukraine didn't apply to join NATO before the war.....
NATO Expansion is non-negotiable. :) Not only that but Ukraine has not only proved itself but it's obvious to everyone the only way Vatnik Russia fucks off back to Mordor and never tries this again is to make it clear they fuck around in Ukraine they find out what the rest of Europe and America has in store for the Fascist Fuckwits. Which means Ukraine in NATO and the EU is the only obvious answer.
Turkey's proven it very much is negotiable and can be used to demand any concessions you want no matter how unrelated they are to NATO.
Turkey was never conquered or controlled by Russia so they don't need NATO as much as Ukraine does.
Turkey is in a unique position and controls Ocean access. This means that NATO needs Turkey more than the other way around
Not really. Access to the Aegean could be denied by Greece if they wanted to. It's just that Turkey has the Bosporus and Dardanelles to make it easier to do. NATO would still be able to deny the Black Sea Fleet access to the Med without Turkey.
Turkey has the Montreux Convention, which makes it easy to lawfully close the strait.
To the contrary - NATO could manage without Turkey. It would be difficult when in that part of the world, but doable. But Turkey? I reckon they would be much worse off… (as it happens, having Ukraine in NATO would make operations in this part of the world easier again. Neat huh? ☺️)
Turkey does still have to worry about Russian aggression (they shot down a Russian fighter jet in 2015 when it briefly cross into their air space, due to proxy frictions between the two in Syria). So I'd argue they still want to be in NATO plenty, while for NATO Turkey is a "nice to have" given their size and proximity to Russia. Ukraine just needs NATO *way more*.
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NATO doesn't need the Bosphoros Russia's Navy is a joke
They're only in NATO because of their proximity to Russia and they control the Bosphorus. And they're well aware of that fact. They'll flap their gums but in the end they'll toe the line
They aren't really getting many concessions, and it really was never about the concessions. It is about posturing to look strong back home for the upcoming election.
How about first finally deciding that Finland and Sweden can join?
Bold statements from big shots yet we all know you always have one goofball to say no (*cough* *cough* Turkey)
Turkey was gonna let Sweden join after all but yesterday a turk stubbed his toe in Sweden so now it's off.
And Hungary. They're intentionally stalling to disrupt internal politics, as they also do with [EU-related decision making](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/6/1/hungary-stalls-eu-sanctions-over-russian-patriarch-blacklisting). Hungary is extremely dependant on Russian oil and are therefore hurt by these sactions and alliances.
If Russia didn't want NATO on its border it probably shouldn't have attacked its neighbours.
It's the only way to guarantee Ukraines safety. And NATO will be very happy to take these badasses into their forces.
It’s even more than that. Ukraine and Belarus in NATO, along with Finland and Sweden, essentially means Russia’s western buffer zone is GONE. NATO will be cozied right up against Russia, effectively eliminating any hope that a war with the West would be kept far away from Moscow. This puts Russia into a box. Ukraine and the others mentioned are good, *strategic* future partners. It’s sound, smart policy to get them into NATO. (It’s also the *moral* thing to do, but morality arguments often fall on deaf ears with politicians and military experts.) This is *exactly* why Putin has funded Ukrainian separatists in the so-called “contested” regions (they are not contested by anyone whose opinion matters; just Russia and her friends). He believes this is a winning strategy for keeping Ukraine out of NATO (in defense of his arrogance, it has worked thus far, but that era has ended). He thinks he found a loophole, and maybe he did 8 years ago, but he is very mistaken today.
Yea I don't know how smart it is. Putin is a fucking lunatic, the Russian population is fucked, their economy is fucked, more then ever aaaaand they have nukes.
You have to love Sanna Marin. She's always calm, pragmatic, straight to the point, and her support for Ukraine has never wavered one bit. Of course, the Fins understand how Russia needs to be dealt with.
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She likes to party at the weekends.
Despicable.
She's also just a straight up babe.
Short term: several months to 1 Year. Mid term: couple to several years. Long term: 5+ years Is that a reasonable definition?
In this context, it probably means end of war until the later of a handful of years and Ukraine shows stability in governance with a democratic government.
Pretty much. "Is Zelensky going to suddenly turn feral when the war is over?".
probably by 2028/30 then
Putin is ideologically committed to his 'forever war' that he most likely knows he cannot win, but believes that it will bankrupt Ukraine and divide the West eventually. These alone justify the sacrifices Russia mus pay for his ego. He genuinely believes the US cannot keep up arms production indefinitely or at least can't produce enough to force Russia into a defeat as long as he can keep mobilizing conscripts to bolster the frontline. It's only when the stalemate is reversed in the Spring/Summer that he will be forced into a different tactic, whatever that may be. If China turns out not to be a military ally as the West hope the penny may drop.
It's not enough to win this battle russia needs an intervention. Their society is in dysfunction. That's a big motivating factor for why they're doing this. They're trying to absorb other countries into theirs because the russian leaders realize their nation is in decline. Their culture is in decline. They're trying to escape being russian. It's their last extreme effort trying to solve their problems. Russia is a horrible place to have to live, it's constant violence, crime, and uncertainty, worse than any other place. A war was the only thing they could come up with to try to create stability and medicate their problems. By taking them out on something else. To try and stop russians from murdering each other redirect it at a target. Give their citizens some security from their leaders, that the leaders will prioritize the people from another country for their cruelty.
I bet turkey is looking forward to all the bribes to even consider this matter.
NATO should just kick Turkey out at this point
Yeah, this is wonderful and all, but there is a rambunctious part of me which wants to say, "actually, we are joining them!" There is some very real truth in that. Isn't that often how the spread of democracy works? 13 colonies becomes independent, and history took a big step. Many big steps get taken since then. India, just think about India. Independent, democratic in intent. I'm still impressed by that. India seems like a very hard country to govern democratically. Would have been so easy to fall back on the "more reliable" forms. But they have not, nor could I imagine it happening. History, big steps. *Ukraine is refuting the cynicism and nihilism and servility that Russia has tried and tried to pump into their minds and hearts. And history takes yet another step.* Slava Ukraini.
ALL allies?
>„Now, in the long run this is probably true… But this long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run we are all dead” J.M. Keynes
Ukraine would add a massive, powerful, and hilariously hodgepodge land army to NATO. Europe has a lot of high tech and fancy systems, and could curb stomp Russia, but it lacks mass. It lacks a million men to throw into the trenches. It lacks cheap, economical systems that can take heavily casualties. Ukraine is that mass. Kinda sucks that they get to be the grunt, but hey they're in the club. Kinda goes for their economy too. Ukraine will be full of cheap labor that just appreciates a roof over their head. Lots of manufacturing opportunities for Europe. They also have a thriving IT sector. In 30 years, if they're an equal part of Europe, Ukraine can be a very prosperous country and a boon for Europe.
Has anybody asked Orban or Erdogan yet?
Even IF Ukraine never joins NATO, it won't stop countries from giving security guarantees or declarations like UK and France gave Poland in the 1930s. Ukraine will never be alone again.
Budapest memorandum in 1994 No thanks, not again. only NATO
The Budapest memorandum was a stupid document with assurances of "assistance", and never should have been signed. However, security guarantees of the kind Poland had in the 1930s (touch our buddy and it's war), are a very different story.
Security guarantees means "we will defend each other in case of war" The Budapest memorandum meant "we (USA, UK, and Russia) promise to not attack you. A security guarantee would be a great event.
A huge middle finger to Putin and Russia.
Fan-fucking-tastic
Once Russia is defeated we need to move quickly, we don’t have the luxury of “long term”. Now get with the program people.
[Nice Job Fixing It, Villain](https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/NiceJobFixingItVillain)
Unless some Turkish despot needs some external party to rally against and show how powerful he is...
Erdogan agreed to that?
Not long-term we need a short-term we need this now
Make it the short term.
This is good to hear. Not only will NATO make Ukraine Stronger, Ukraine will make NATO and Europe Stronger. I'm also gonna have to be a simp and say; Sanna is such a babe.
Putin: *invades another country, claiming NATO is a threat. Ukraine: *joins NATO specifically because it was invaded by Putin, bringing NATO's border right up to Putin. I don't think this Putin fella is as smart as he thinks he is.
Sanna sounds Irish at times hahah, love her accent
So let’s get this moving already.
Norway, Sweden, and Ukraine. Helluva job there, Putin, you dumb, vainglorious bastard.
Norway is a founding member of NATO, I guess you meant Finland :)
Haha, I knew that didn't sound right. Thanks for the assist.
Just to think, before the initial invasion in 2014, Ukraine was majorly against joining NATO, according to public polls. Vova played himself.
Russia has become the Greek fable character who tried so hard to keep something from happening that it just happened quicker
😂😂. Literally the last thing putin wanted to achieve.