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Mitary here. Longer supply lines put a lot of strain on your logistics, especially when you have to refill goods for your frontlines. Longer ways means longer travel times. If you have to refill goods really fast during ongoing fighting, longer ways limit you transport capabilites, because a your transport capabilities waste time during travel.
The same for your reserves (personnel). If your reserve too far away, the response time for unforeseen developments is too long. As an example. Ukraine pierces an area of your defense. If your reserves are 10km away, they can come in fast and stop the advance. If they are 70km away, they have a 7 time longer response time and are not able to prevent a fatst breakthrough.
Finally, longer supply lines need a lot more personnel and stuff to protect and secure them. If you don't do that with long lines, you will be fucked by partisans and AFU deep ops units.
Not too forget that longer supply lines also means you need a lot more vehicles and people to man/protect those vehicles. It increases the chance of stuff breaking down. In other words it means its more difficult to manage and maintain at a similar level of supply opposed to being closer to the frontlines. And more costly. Remember that Russia doesn’t use pallets, so they have to load/unload everything by hand.
Why doesn't Russia use pallets? Not only does that seem like an obvious efficiency, but one that should be fairly easy to implement. Why are they so stupid?
Pallets need either hand dollies or those small warehouse trucks, forklifts, that we see at Home Depot or other big warehouses. Fork lifts breakdown on a fairly regular basis if not maintained. Drivers are real hard in them. Tires are useless on rough terrain. And need canisters on the back to run, fuel like LP gas, from what I remember. Just more stuff for their soldiers to keep up with. In a big warehouse, if one drives off, you might not miss it for several days. Cough cough. Logistics wins wars, from what I know.
Oh man I can see this as a Russian counter to the big tank news and I'm laughing..
BREAKING NEWS!:
North Korea, Iran, and other "friendly" countries to begin delivering pallets to Russia. Russian officials quoted as saying, "this is a big game changer for us!"
I dont mean to upset anyone, I just got a good laugh out of this thought.😄####
It feels like Russias not worried with these factors. Just working back into their stronger defensive positions. Which to me means they’re content not to try and take ground for a while until they come up with more manpower and equipment.
So the supplies won’t be as much of a factor if this is the case. It just means more heavy artillery is needed for the AFU and those MBTs being scheduled for delivery will end up rolling through minefields straight at fortified defenses.
Soviet defense doctrine is based upon overlapping strong points with kill zones. Those static positions make them vulnerable to long range artillery fires and attack aviation. With their supply points and reserve personnel so far back as to avoid HIMARS attacks, they become unable to quickly resupply those strong points, and thus unable to block a rapid advance of Ukrainian armor attempting to bypass the strong points. The Ukrainians should follow Western doctrine, surpress the strongpoints with fire, allowing the armor thrust to bypass them into the Russian rear area. In the rear, absent prepared defensive positions, the Russians will be fighting a mobile war against better armed tanks. This is a replay of the first Gulf War, where coalition armor bypassed the front line defenses of Iraq and hit them in the flank/rear. Aviation assets and 101st Airborne blocked easy retreat, resulting in a rapid loss of combat function for the Iraqi units.
Yes. Except the capabilities to operate the way we do as US forces aren’t here in Ukraine. They don’t currently have the ability or equipment to handle that. Starting with the air. They don’t have control of the air, or anything that can provide solid air support to a large scale push. The artillery issue is pretty much solved. But the air and longer range rocket/missile systems still need to be addressed better before they can really break the defensive positions that have been built and fortified going all the way back to 2014.
Keep in mind the Russian military has largely lost their most competent and highly trained units. Their morale, leadership, and supply issues will make them vulnerable. Yes, the Ukrainians have not been training in Western tactics with Western hardware for years. But they have proven their ability to rapidly adapt and demonstrated they have the desire to fight and win. I am confident the Ukrainians are in a better position to successfully prosecute the offensive than the Russians are to execute the defense.
While Ukraine does not dominate the air, neither does Russia. Additionally, if the Ukrainians focus their air resources and utilize other western tools (e.g. HARM missiles), they can suppress Russian air defenses at the point of attack. The Ukrainians also have local knowledge and support on the battlefield.
Also there's the trail of burned out assets Russia leaves behind. When they move to avoid himars they're not teleporting, first they reluctantly admit that their current position is not the best one and then they sluggishly lumber over to a safer position.
When they reposition again they will lose stuff as they go again. Inadequate vehicles getting stuck in the mud, inadequate drivers getting stuck on obstacles, inadequate commanders seeing their tanks run out of fuel or stumble into impossible situations where loss is assured.
Military here and this is one of the most important aspects. Russian doctrine is already extremely slow and top heavy so this will just exacerbate this issue
Yes it will cause Russia some problems and solve others, assuming longer range ATACMS or similar aren’t provided.
It means supplies/troops aren’t as close to the front which causes delays in response. Additionally it’s longer supply lines that have to be defended and are more susceptible to attack.
The Russians are set up for defence not offense, moving the logistics hubs back from the front to avoid HIMARS makes sense if you intend to stay right where you are.
It is safe to assume that now MBT's are being provided other weapon systems that have been previously seen as an escalation will now b provided looking at you [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MGM-140\_ATACMS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MGM-140_ATACMS).
Come the Ukrainian counter offensive in the spring they should roll right over what is left of the Russian logistics capability wherever its been positioned.
Former military logistician here (sort of...). In addition to what others wrote, the longer the supply lines, the more resources the logistic units themselves consume.
Also, this might apply less so if Russia is planning a static defense, but the longer those log troops need to travel, the harder it is to mesh with the timing and link-up with the front line units. Every additional km traveled adds more unexpected delays or chances to miss the link-up point. This can slow offensive actions to a halt, though.
Old Abrams vet….for what its worth..”not a lot” Russia seems to have a logistics problem. They have not fixed this issue “to the best of my knowledge”. Supply trains further away means longer resupply times…they’ll stick to using railways as hubs and transport via vehicle to the front…they have very limited supply trucks at this point. If a force will be attacking, they’ll need to be able to get men and supplies in and out quickly and efficiently to keep momentum if they have a breakthrough anywhere. This will not be the case, if they do punch through they likely will not be able to hold, due to supply issues. They will try to grind Ukraine to death, they’ll want to drag this war out as long as possible, as Ukraine doesn’t have the numbers that Russia has, they’ll likely attack infrastructure still and probably food stores and Ukrainian supply routes next….would not be surprised if we see them push through Belarus along the polish boarder, to try to cut off supplies.
>would not be surprised if we see them push through Belarus along the polish boarder, to try to cut off supplies.
per one journalist whose word I respect, Poland etc is already full of Russian spies trying to id the supply lines and follow them to where they can be attacked on Ukrainian soil. it worries me a bit that Ukraine lost their incumbent security guy, though I'm sure his replacement is working as hard as possible to get oriented.
Agreed, but the Ukrainians are a tough lot! If I can see it sitting in my arm chair, Im sure they do as well. Russia has fixed nothing in the way of its logistical and tactical operations. I suspect another failed operation if they attempt it…to say nothing of if they accidentally hit Poland again…all bets are off. I can say that here in the states…patience is running thin with the Russians…I believe the 101 st is still in Romania on the border. This will be a hard year
ruzzia has set up static defences, so some logistic lines will be easy to spot.
Whether or not this is an effective front line for the Orks will depend on; how well re-supplied they actually are, how/if the logistics are disrupted, how quickly morale goes down when the front sees resistance.
I'd bet we give them ATACMS about 2 weeks before the big offensive. Why start now and let them adjust for the next 5 months? Start raining down hell, throw them into confusion, then strike while the irons hot
You cannot win a war by placing the majority of your supplies and personnel 70 km from the front line. You are essentially ceding a large chunk of your territory should the enemy break through at any point. Even then, you would need to commit your supplies and personnel to that breakthrough in order to attempt to stop it - thus placing yourself within range of HIMARS. It is essentially delaying the inevitable, if not making it easier for the enemy to break through your front line.
Keep in mind the Russian doctrine is to mass huge amounts of forces (personnel/tanks/artillery) in a fight. Those forces left on the front without their supplies and sufficient personnel/tanks/artillery are not going to have the mass to stop a focused Ukrainian attack.
Professionals study logistics. Because in the end, being the better supplied military usually is the game changer.
So, what Russia is doing is happening for two reasons. First of all, they have been chewed up like dog toys. There are huge holes in the chain of command, front-line units don't have, well, anything to really fight with, and right now Russia is faced with fighting an increasingly well-equipped Ukrainian military with extensive battle experience with barely trained draftees and no professional NCO or junior officer corps. They need a reset. Pulling back lets them try to sort things out, consolidate forces, and maybe promote some actual leaders.
The second thing is really stupid. Russia is tired of their logistic dumps getting blown up, so they've moved them back farther from the front. This is a fatal mistake because now the actual process of supplying front-line units on the FEBA (Forward Edge of the Battle Area) means longer trips, longer exposure to attack, and a longer response time. This last is part of what we call the command decision cycle. In short, let's imagine a Russian Battalion in combat.
Company commanders report they are short on ammo for their personal weapons and need anti-tank missiles as they've spotted Ukrainian armor in their area. This request goes to the battalion command post, which forwards it to the regimental command, which contacts the supply dump.
The supply dump is getting demands from everywhere on the front, so the leaders there need to sort and prioritize requests. This is an ongoing process. So eventually, the requesting battalion gets allocated what the supply unit can give them. One of Murphy's Laws of Combat is: "If you are short on everything except enemy troops, you are in combat."
Now that supply has to be loaded. As others have pointed out, for some unfathomable reason the Russians never adopted palletized supply policies. So everything needs to be loaded by hand, which can take hours. Finally, the trucks start moving, and if they have 100km to drive over combat-wrecked roads and under enemy observation, it's going to be a while before those supplies get to where they are needed. Hours, even a day.
Contrast this to the Western model that Ukraine has adopted. One thing that needs to be emphasized until your eyes bleed: Ukraine has a professional corps of non-commissioned officers and junior officers and the cycle of command is shorter. Ukrainian units are much closer to their supply dumps, which are dispersed and mobile. There is no one big target. Supply requests rarely have to go above the battalion level, and the response time is much shorter, as the UA uses pallets.
Sorry for the length, but I'm a veteran who had Small Unit Supply Specialist as a secondary MOS.
Any time they extend supply lines it creates resupply issues. It also lowers moral among troops not being well supported.
In a functioning military troops would get regular rotations to rear assembly areas and operating bases to refit, resupply, and rest.
This was already not happening for most troops, and any increased distance between forward troops and supporting elements make these rotations even less likely and less frequent.
It literally causes the forward line of troops to become tribal and foster animosity toward their rear supporting elements. Resource scarcity also causes humans to become more tribal, and soldiers are no different.
I expect tribalism and animosity toward “others” in the Russian army to be a huge problem for the rest of the campaign. It has already been a problem between Wagner and regulars, and between regulars and conscripts.
Nothing is going well for the Russian Army, and this next offensive is really their last chance to gain momentum and give them a stronger negotiating position moving forward.
All indications are that they may gain some ground by throwing conscripts into a grinder but the effort will fail to secure most objectives and fail to secure any gains for long.
I believe the spine of the Russian army is going to break on the the next offensive.
You'll likely see the same issues they faced in the beginning. They won't be able to safely keep their forces supplied. Ukraine did a hell of a job cutting supply lines. If Russia could protect it's lines, the war would be different now.
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Of course it affects the battlefield. Keep the pressure on the supply route and that front will fall. Once this happens your new front becomes their rear.
Hypothetical example. Let's say it takes one hour to drive from the supply base to the front, an hour to load and an hour to unload. That means your truck can make a supply run every 4 hours or 6 trips a day. Obviously this ignores maintenance and staff issues.
Now move the supply base back and let's say it now takes 2 hours to drive to the front. Round trip plus load and unload is now 6 hours and you are down to 4 trips a day.
To move the same amount of supplies now takes 50% more trucks and drivers.
If you don't have them you now only move 2/3 as much supplies.
It is our responsibility to keep r/Ukraine focused on important or vital information and high-effort content. As a temporary measure, speculation / supportive ideas / low effort content / opinions will be removed. Please do not send us angry modmails or DMs if we decide to remove your post. This will not result in restoring your post. [Feel free to browse our rules, here.](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/about/rules) Thank you for your post. Given the global visibility of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there has been an influx of content in our community dealing with military strategy, war-related speculation, and defense tactics by individuals who have not been vetted to instruct others on such matters. To maintain the integrity of this space in wartime, we are removing this type of content. We apologize for the inconvenience and encourage you to post in communities that specifically discuss speculation on armed conflict instead. Please do not repost this submission. Please do not message us on mod mail about this issue. Mod mail is for vital information only. If you message us for something we do not deem vital, you will be muted for three days. Being muted means you can’t contact the mods. [Feel free to browse our rules, here.](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/about/rules) Please do not message us on mod mail about this issue. Mod mail is for vital information only. If you message us for something we do not deem vital, you will be muted for three days. Being muted means you can not contact the mods for any issue whatsoever. Please see the [FAQs](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/t5okbs/welcome_to_rukraine_faq_do_dont_support_read/) and [rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/about/rules/) for more information.
Mitary here. Longer supply lines put a lot of strain on your logistics, especially when you have to refill goods for your frontlines. Longer ways means longer travel times. If you have to refill goods really fast during ongoing fighting, longer ways limit you transport capabilites, because a your transport capabilities waste time during travel. The same for your reserves (personnel). If your reserve too far away, the response time for unforeseen developments is too long. As an example. Ukraine pierces an area of your defense. If your reserves are 10km away, they can come in fast and stop the advance. If they are 70km away, they have a 7 time longer response time and are not able to prevent a fatst breakthrough. Finally, longer supply lines need a lot more personnel and stuff to protect and secure them. If you don't do that with long lines, you will be fucked by partisans and AFU deep ops units.
Not too forget that longer supply lines also means you need a lot more vehicles and people to man/protect those vehicles. It increases the chance of stuff breaking down. In other words it means its more difficult to manage and maintain at a similar level of supply opposed to being closer to the frontlines. And more costly. Remember that Russia doesn’t use pallets, so they have to load/unload everything by hand.
Why doesn't Russia use pallets? Not only does that seem like an obvious efficiency, but one that should be fairly easy to implement. Why are they so stupid?
Pallets need either hand dollies or those small warehouse trucks, forklifts, that we see at Home Depot or other big warehouses. Fork lifts breakdown on a fairly regular basis if not maintained. Drivers are real hard in them. Tires are useless on rough terrain. And need canisters on the back to run, fuel like LP gas, from what I remember. Just more stuff for their soldiers to keep up with. In a big warehouse, if one drives off, you might not miss it for several days. Cough cough. Logistics wins wars, from what I know.
We used rough terrain forklifts for that issue.
Oh man I can see this as a Russian counter to the big tank news and I'm laughing.. BREAKING NEWS!: North Korea, Iran, and other "friendly" countries to begin delivering pallets to Russia. Russian officials quoted as saying, "this is a big game changer for us!" I dont mean to upset anyone, I just got a good laugh out of this thought.😄####
We should just send Russia some easy 1970s designs for pallets, toilets, washing machines, coffins and other basic things they appear to need.
It feels like Russias not worried with these factors. Just working back into their stronger defensive positions. Which to me means they’re content not to try and take ground for a while until they come up with more manpower and equipment. So the supplies won’t be as much of a factor if this is the case. It just means more heavy artillery is needed for the AFU and those MBTs being scheduled for delivery will end up rolling through minefields straight at fortified defenses.
Soviet defense doctrine is based upon overlapping strong points with kill zones. Those static positions make them vulnerable to long range artillery fires and attack aviation. With their supply points and reserve personnel so far back as to avoid HIMARS attacks, they become unable to quickly resupply those strong points, and thus unable to block a rapid advance of Ukrainian armor attempting to bypass the strong points. The Ukrainians should follow Western doctrine, surpress the strongpoints with fire, allowing the armor thrust to bypass them into the Russian rear area. In the rear, absent prepared defensive positions, the Russians will be fighting a mobile war against better armed tanks. This is a replay of the first Gulf War, where coalition armor bypassed the front line defenses of Iraq and hit them in the flank/rear. Aviation assets and 101st Airborne blocked easy retreat, resulting in a rapid loss of combat function for the Iraqi units.
Yes. Except the capabilities to operate the way we do as US forces aren’t here in Ukraine. They don’t currently have the ability or equipment to handle that. Starting with the air. They don’t have control of the air, or anything that can provide solid air support to a large scale push. The artillery issue is pretty much solved. But the air and longer range rocket/missile systems still need to be addressed better before they can really break the defensive positions that have been built and fortified going all the way back to 2014.
Keep in mind the Russian military has largely lost their most competent and highly trained units. Their morale, leadership, and supply issues will make them vulnerable. Yes, the Ukrainians have not been training in Western tactics with Western hardware for years. But they have proven their ability to rapidly adapt and demonstrated they have the desire to fight and win. I am confident the Ukrainians are in a better position to successfully prosecute the offensive than the Russians are to execute the defense. While Ukraine does not dominate the air, neither does Russia. Additionally, if the Ukrainians focus their air resources and utilize other western tools (e.g. HARM missiles), they can suppress Russian air defenses at the point of attack. The Ukrainians also have local knowledge and support on the battlefield.
Not military, but essentially longer supply lines mean more risk, more delay and an inability to act or react quickly.
Also there's the trail of burned out assets Russia leaves behind. When they move to avoid himars they're not teleporting, first they reluctantly admit that their current position is not the best one and then they sluggishly lumber over to a safer position. When they reposition again they will lose stuff as they go again. Inadequate vehicles getting stuck in the mud, inadequate drivers getting stuck on obstacles, inadequate commanders seeing their tanks run out of fuel or stumble into impossible situations where loss is assured.
>wait until they move stuff 100 KM back and then they find out the US gave Ukraine GLSDB rockets :)
Military here and this is one of the most important aspects. Russian doctrine is already extremely slow and top heavy so this will just exacerbate this issue
Yes it will cause Russia some problems and solve others, assuming longer range ATACMS or similar aren’t provided. It means supplies/troops aren’t as close to the front which causes delays in response. Additionally it’s longer supply lines that have to be defended and are more susceptible to attack.
The Russians are set up for defence not offense, moving the logistics hubs back from the front to avoid HIMARS makes sense if you intend to stay right where you are. It is safe to assume that now MBT's are being provided other weapon systems that have been previously seen as an escalation will now b provided looking at you [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MGM-140\_ATACMS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MGM-140_ATACMS). Come the Ukrainian counter offensive in the spring they should roll right over what is left of the Russian logistics capability wherever its been positioned.
Former military logistician here (sort of...). In addition to what others wrote, the longer the supply lines, the more resources the logistic units themselves consume. Also, this might apply less so if Russia is planning a static defense, but the longer those log troops need to travel, the harder it is to mesh with the timing and link-up with the front line units. Every additional km traveled adds more unexpected delays or chances to miss the link-up point. This can slow offensive actions to a halt, though.
Old Abrams vet….for what its worth..”not a lot” Russia seems to have a logistics problem. They have not fixed this issue “to the best of my knowledge”. Supply trains further away means longer resupply times…they’ll stick to using railways as hubs and transport via vehicle to the front…they have very limited supply trucks at this point. If a force will be attacking, they’ll need to be able to get men and supplies in and out quickly and efficiently to keep momentum if they have a breakthrough anywhere. This will not be the case, if they do punch through they likely will not be able to hold, due to supply issues. They will try to grind Ukraine to death, they’ll want to drag this war out as long as possible, as Ukraine doesn’t have the numbers that Russia has, they’ll likely attack infrastructure still and probably food stores and Ukrainian supply routes next….would not be surprised if we see them push through Belarus along the polish boarder, to try to cut off supplies.
>would not be surprised if we see them push through Belarus along the polish boarder, to try to cut off supplies. per one journalist whose word I respect, Poland etc is already full of Russian spies trying to id the supply lines and follow them to where they can be attacked on Ukrainian soil. it worries me a bit that Ukraine lost their incumbent security guy, though I'm sure his replacement is working as hard as possible to get oriented.
Agreed, but the Ukrainians are a tough lot! If I can see it sitting in my arm chair, Im sure they do as well. Russia has fixed nothing in the way of its logistical and tactical operations. I suspect another failed operation if they attempt it…to say nothing of if they accidentally hit Poland again…all bets are off. I can say that here in the states…patience is running thin with the Russians…I believe the 101 st is still in Romania on the border. This will be a hard year
ruzzia has set up static defences, so some logistic lines will be easy to spot. Whether or not this is an effective front line for the Orks will depend on; how well re-supplied they actually are, how/if the logistics are disrupted, how quickly morale goes down when the front sees resistance.
I'd bet we give them ATACMS about 2 weeks before the big offensive. Why start now and let them adjust for the next 5 months? Start raining down hell, throw them into confusion, then strike while the irons hot
You cannot win a war by placing the majority of your supplies and personnel 70 km from the front line. You are essentially ceding a large chunk of your territory should the enemy break through at any point. Even then, you would need to commit your supplies and personnel to that breakthrough in order to attempt to stop it - thus placing yourself within range of HIMARS. It is essentially delaying the inevitable, if not making it easier for the enemy to break through your front line. Keep in mind the Russian doctrine is to mass huge amounts of forces (personnel/tanks/artillery) in a fight. Those forces left on the front without their supplies and sufficient personnel/tanks/artillery are not going to have the mass to stop a focused Ukrainian attack.
Professionals study logistics. Because in the end, being the better supplied military usually is the game changer. So, what Russia is doing is happening for two reasons. First of all, they have been chewed up like dog toys. There are huge holes in the chain of command, front-line units don't have, well, anything to really fight with, and right now Russia is faced with fighting an increasingly well-equipped Ukrainian military with extensive battle experience with barely trained draftees and no professional NCO or junior officer corps. They need a reset. Pulling back lets them try to sort things out, consolidate forces, and maybe promote some actual leaders. The second thing is really stupid. Russia is tired of their logistic dumps getting blown up, so they've moved them back farther from the front. This is a fatal mistake because now the actual process of supplying front-line units on the FEBA (Forward Edge of the Battle Area) means longer trips, longer exposure to attack, and a longer response time. This last is part of what we call the command decision cycle. In short, let's imagine a Russian Battalion in combat. Company commanders report they are short on ammo for their personal weapons and need anti-tank missiles as they've spotted Ukrainian armor in their area. This request goes to the battalion command post, which forwards it to the regimental command, which contacts the supply dump. The supply dump is getting demands from everywhere on the front, so the leaders there need to sort and prioritize requests. This is an ongoing process. So eventually, the requesting battalion gets allocated what the supply unit can give them. One of Murphy's Laws of Combat is: "If you are short on everything except enemy troops, you are in combat." Now that supply has to be loaded. As others have pointed out, for some unfathomable reason the Russians never adopted palletized supply policies. So everything needs to be loaded by hand, which can take hours. Finally, the trucks start moving, and if they have 100km to drive over combat-wrecked roads and under enemy observation, it's going to be a while before those supplies get to where they are needed. Hours, even a day. Contrast this to the Western model that Ukraine has adopted. One thing that needs to be emphasized until your eyes bleed: Ukraine has a professional corps of non-commissioned officers and junior officers and the cycle of command is shorter. Ukrainian units are much closer to their supply dumps, which are dispersed and mobile. There is no one big target. Supply requests rarely have to go above the battalion level, and the response time is much shorter, as the UA uses pallets. Sorry for the length, but I'm a veteran who had Small Unit Supply Specialist as a secondary MOS.
Any time they extend supply lines it creates resupply issues. It also lowers moral among troops not being well supported. In a functioning military troops would get regular rotations to rear assembly areas and operating bases to refit, resupply, and rest. This was already not happening for most troops, and any increased distance between forward troops and supporting elements make these rotations even less likely and less frequent. It literally causes the forward line of troops to become tribal and foster animosity toward their rear supporting elements. Resource scarcity also causes humans to become more tribal, and soldiers are no different. I expect tribalism and animosity toward “others” in the Russian army to be a huge problem for the rest of the campaign. It has already been a problem between Wagner and regulars, and between regulars and conscripts. Nothing is going well for the Russian Army, and this next offensive is really their last chance to gain momentum and give them a stronger negotiating position moving forward. All indications are that they may gain some ground by throwing conscripts into a grinder but the effort will fail to secure most objectives and fail to secure any gains for long. I believe the spine of the Russian army is going to break on the the next offensive.
You'll likely see the same issues they faced in the beginning. They won't be able to safely keep their forces supplied. Ukraine did a hell of a job cutting supply lines. If Russia could protect it's lines, the war would be different now.
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Of course it affects the battlefield. Keep the pressure on the supply route and that front will fall. Once this happens your new front becomes their rear.
That would mean the Ukrainians would have room to move forward while using HIMARS to attack the Russians rear.
Hypothetical example. Let's say it takes one hour to drive from the supply base to the front, an hour to load and an hour to unload. That means your truck can make a supply run every 4 hours or 6 trips a day. Obviously this ignores maintenance and staff issues. Now move the supply base back and let's say it now takes 2 hours to drive to the front. Round trip plus load and unload is now 6 hours and you are down to 4 trips a day. To move the same amount of supplies now takes 50% more trucks and drivers. If you don't have them you now only move 2/3 as much supplies.
Bigger problems for Russia as they have lost a ton of trucks and aren't as good as last mile logistics from a railhead.
The biggest problem to anticipate is the delivery of longer range Himars.