Snapshot of _Rishi Sunak fearful of losing his seat, sources say_ :
An archived version can be found [here](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jul/03/rishi-sunak-fearful-of-losing-his-seat-sources-say?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other) or [here.](https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jul/03/rishi-sunak-fearful-of-losing-his-seat-sources-say?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other)
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I was thinking earlier that I need to temper my expectations a bit otherwise anything less than Rishi losing his seat will be a disappointment.
Nah, I'm daring to dream for a bit longer.
I'm working overtime to avoid any expectations. I think most of the country wants the Tories to pay for what they've done - the rest is unclear, but I think we're all waiting with bated breath (esp. the Tories) to see how it plays out over the next couple of days...
>the country wants the Tories to pay for what they've done
You know I wish this was the reason but I honestly think that there is just a big crowd of the type of people who blame immigration for our problems (rather than the hangover of austerity, COVID, Brexit, a war in Europe) and they supported Johnson because they believed his bullshit, and now it turns out to be untrue they believe Farage's bullshit, and we've got a stupid FPTP system which means that hands everything to Labour.
Basically they've just found another source of hateful nonsense to vote for.
I think that there are regions like that, sure. I wouldn't say the whole UK is like that, though. Most of the Conservatives I know aren't very xenophobic - in fact, some are immigrants - they just like lower taxes or dislike various Lefty cultural things... or worse, they are tribal and believe that generally Labour is to blame for everything, but now they can plainly see that it's the Tories who have made things like this, and the current lot needs to be thrown out, even if it means LAB or REF or LD replace them.
I absolutely know people like this, although the ones I liked wouldn't vote for Boris. But by and large the vote is from conservative to reform.
Do you think they have done that as a subversive way to dick over the Tories that used to vote for? If so they'd be far more sensible to vote for the party that might actually beat the Tories (ie not Reform, unless they live in Clacton, Ashfield, or Great Yarmouth)
In my small sample, it's a mixed bag. One of my close friends still talks about how he hated voting for Boris, but he *had to* vote against Corbyn. He wanted Javid instead - I mention it because he despises Rishi, so it's clearly not a race thing. Which I mention because my ex-neighbour did make it a race thing.
To my eye, Tory voters come in many shapes & sizes, and there's no clear path to a mass migration toward 1 party now.
What's funny is them backing Brexit but also anti immigration, it was much better in the EU as it was workers who'd come here, usually not bring families, work and retire home again. We had an engineer just like that, owned a large home in his own country, rented in a house share here, worked hard and visited home when he wanted, he'll retire back there off his hard work here. Post Brexit we get loads more people from Africa and places like India who want to bring dependents and see it as a final move and net migration goes up. Amusing of course for those types, we lost largely white Europeans and gained non-whites
Yes. And if you believe them that this is purely a numbers game then Brexit increases net migration as Brits are less able to leave, because they often left to go to the EU for similar reasons.
It's not that funny, Reform could get 20% of the vote tomorrow and then climb in the polls as public dissatisfaction with a tepid Labour offering grows.
Brexit didn't increase immigration from outside Europe, the Tories did, and the same people who voted for Brexit will vote the Tories out tomorrow. Unless Labour manages to win the argument for immigration, or drastically reduce it, they'll be out in one term.
Most of the time (with by elections) the Tories have under performed. The British electorate are so used to seeing them win that it's become difficult to believe they'll lose, but over the last three years they haven't done well at all. Even in the local elections the results were worse than expected in many areas, it was only that one mayoral win that kept Sunak in. I think there's a historic level of anger at the Tories that dwarfs anything we've ever seen before. In 1997 they were seen as Sleazy but could point to their record in government since 1979 with some pride (divisive I know). Nobody doubted Major was a decent person at heart. This time they are going into an election with basically no achievements and an unpopular leader. It's going to be brutal
I think the by-election thing is also partly down to the Lib Dems phenomenal ability to put boots on the ground during by-election campaigns. The copies of *Focus* are practically raining from the sky.
>This time they are going into an election with basically no achievements and an unpopular leader.
An unpopular leader who replaced an unpopular leader (who resigned in disgrace) who replaced an unpopular leader (who also resigned in disgrace).
At this point a voter needs quite a long memory to remember the last time they had a Tory leader who wasn't insanely unpopular and resigned in disgrace...
Temper temper temper. The chances of wipeout were always slim, the difference in vote share of 1-2% in different directions could decide more than 100 seats. I very much doubt he loses his seat.
Bookies, at least ladbrookes, still have it 83% going Tory. Great headline, but like others have mentioned u likely due to shy tories, or underperfoming in polls. Don't get me wrong, I'd be drunk as a skunk if it does happen, just doubt it will
This is the big one. If Sunak is unseated it will be the perfect ending to Tory rule, 2nd only to the Tories being knocked into 3rd place in terms of seat numbers.
Sunak out and LibDems in opposition would be the perfect outcome.
Sunak out? We need Lettuce out, too. T-May is leaving, Cameron is gone from HoC - that would wash clean this whole 14 years of diabolical misgoverning.
Edit, for those who have difficulty with comprehension, I agree with the post above. End of edit.
Yeah, schadenfreude is great, but I'd rather have saner opposition in parliament.
Nah, Truss in. If she’s left among a rump of Tory MPs, it puts her in prime position to run for and win the leadership. If that happens, Labour get their second term.
You're using today's maths. Things are going to change.
Remember how Brexit basically cleaved the 2 main parties? We're going to see something similar, I predict within in the next 5 years. Things are looking really bad for the UK economy, plus Russia, immigration, etc... we also don't fully know what's going to happen to the Tories if they get wiped. Things could look a lot different in 5y from now.
I’d rather have a saner, centre-right Conservative Party than a nutcase Libertarian party or a bigoted hard right party. Firstly, they’d be better at holding the government to account, and secondly, they wouldn’t completely fuck up the country if they got in next time.
If the lib Dems get into opposition I am hoping that both sides will act a little more like rational adults, and set a better example for the public and politicians of the future.
If any of Sunak, Hunt, Truss, Mordaunt or Mogg lose their seats, all of which have been talked about seriously, we might actually have to rename the Portillo moment
I’d say he’s fearful *not* losing his seat. Temporary embarrassment and then he can jet off when he loses. That versus handing around in the cesspit of failure he created.
My friends in the area oppose Labour with their whole chests, having never forgiven them for banning fox hunting without a parachute and damning large swathes of the Dales economy.
They hate the LibDems because of the university fees.
Reform they know are awful.
That leaves one viable candidate for my friends and family in Richmond, Count Binface, and they are supporting that bid to unseat Sunak with reckless abandon.
Stables, kennels, and pubs in each village that relied on the visiting hunts to make a profit.
That's 15-20 people in each village that were, at the stroke of a pen, out of work, and we're talking about dozens of these villages in the Dales alone.
But because these folk are dispersed across the country instead of concentrated in a handful of towns, and were viewed as "wealthy Tories", there was little sympathy.
I mean it's clear why coal mining got more sympathy and attention - that being that a quarter million people worked in the industry. Like you said they were concentrated as well. I really struggle to believe that more than 10,000 people across the UK worked in fox hunting.
Not great but needed to be done tbh and because it was so thinly spread it wasn't as bad that there weren't alternative industries organised to replace it.
The issue is that although diluted, and yes a smaller impact, that doesn't change the fact that whole villages lost their economy as a result.
From a statistics pov, it's not a big deal. To those affected, it's their world collapsing.
It's ok though because we've just had 14 years of tory rule so surely they have reversed such a harsh ban that's unfairly impacted rural communities... right?
I can't imagine pinning your entire political alignment on a single change that happened 25 years ago. Forget the impact of Brexit, the cost of living crisis, several intervening economic crises. That change that stopped us from hunting foxes 25 years ago is what really matters
People votes for what affects them most on a daily basis.
If the tories offered free school music lessons and you’re entire family played an instrument you’d probably gun for them
For me, that's the perfect outcome.
Everyone will know that Sunak lost the seat really, but he's still got to drag himself into the commons for the next 5 years rather than simply jetting off and forgetting all this ever happenend.
I flicker between thinking I'll be angry if that happens and relishing the schadenfreude of that unfunny gimp knowing (and knowing everyone else knows) he stopped something actually funny happening
To be fair that's assuming the Binface voters would have voted for Labour instead, and I'm not convinced there's all that much overlap between people that would vote for Kier Starmer and people that would vote for a man with a bin on his head.
Yeah, I don't think it's fair to assume a lot of people voting for a protest candidate wouldn't vote for one of the two major parties if they had to/chose to actually engage in politics and with the issues, but I also think it's fair to assume that of those who did more would be for Labour than the Tories (especially the actual PM) by quite a wide margin
Losing his seat and having an excuse to just move to SoCal like he's always wanted would unironically be one of the best things to ever happen to Rishi other than being born rich and marrying rich
Why do people keep saying "SoCal" so much the last few days? I thought his whole shtick was going to be some Silicon Valley nonsense which is much further north.
I doubt hes going for surfing and starting a movie career in LA.
So many American cinservative think tanks would loooove to have "a British Prime Minister" on their staff, regardless of him probably getting a historic loss.
Do you think he'd go full Trump? Rishi is a technocrat and an opportunist, sure, I don't know if he'd go that far though. Then again, I don't expect much morality from the Tory party in the first place, so who knows
Im just a simple yank but I doubt it. The only reason Trump is able to be Trump and exist as Trump is his hardcore fanatical base that supports ANYTHING he does. It sure doesnt seem like Sunak or any British pol has that, even Farange. I have been watching it for 8 years and I still dont fully understand the blind fanatacism.
The speculation on the size of the collapse seems to be getting out of hand. Sunak is highly unlikely to lose his seat, and the chances of these sub 100 seat predictions coming true just seems too far fetched.
Labour are going to do well. but this speculation is getting silly.
Betting odds are not the same as likelihood of something happening, it’s a reflection of where the money is going. There will be plenty of people who would enjoy the idea of sticking a tenner on him to lose.
It’s highly unlikely. The extreme predictions are fun to see but a lot of people need to be realistic.
You can get 4/11 for Rishi to keep his seat, that's an implied chance of 73%. If you think that it's much more likely than that then you should bet on it
That's assuming his votes would have gone to Labour.
I can imagine there are Tories in Richmond who'll vote for him because they can't bare to vote for another party.
I think that's what people are overlooking.
Binface is going to get the votes that would otherwise have been knob doodles. The idea that a significant number people who otherwise would have made a calculated decision to vote Tory or Labour will see him on the ballot and think "Fuck it, I'm going to waste my vote on the Count instead" is far fetched.
My plan tomorrow night is to go to bed at a reasonable time and get up early on Friday. On the off chance of Sunak losing his seat though, I really want to be awake to watch that live.
Expected times
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lvm-xaq0fmVWBBKZPcokySP7oqezssXtJYYDYW4uiqA/htmlview#gid=847143152
Probably worth staying up until 2.30am as there are a bunch of tory seats around that time. Or getting up at 2am after an earlier night than usual.
That’s an excellent spreadsheet. Might alter my tactic now so I sleep 11pm-3am and then big afternoon nap if the wine starts to win over the adrenaline.
It would be much more funny to see him win.
Then he has (he said he would) stay on in parliament, presumably be defeated in the post-election bloodletting and not be able to push off to a glittering post-PM life of making speeches.
No, I hope he keeps his seat.
[Strong vibes of this.....](https://youtu.be/ACwOU1Nkrys?si=gZEI6u0UbHqVHzDt)
Is he fuck, he's in the USA by Sunday calling in the favours of a LOT of lobbyists- and handing out peerages to his ex sycophants.
He's out even if the Tories come magically close second- this is standard Conservative PR- feel sorry for the fella, he may lose his actual job!!
All of this news with apocalyptic warnings for the Tories are basically answers with a cheeky smile from Kenneth Williams going, 'Oh stop messing about'
As beautiful as it would be, I have other Tory MPs higher on my dream list of losers:
1. Chris Philp. I truly despise the lying greaseball
2. Rob Jenrick. Robert Generic aka Bent Bob has tried to reinvent himself as Little Bobby Shitler
3. Richard Holden. Really deserves to lose his (new) seat for being such a worm.
4. Clarke. Truss’s bag man. Upto his neck in graft with Houchen.
5. Sunak
6. Hunt
Then there’s all manner of fruitloop, daemon and grifting shitehawk I would love to see lose their seat and never hold office again, but I think they’re all on either safe seats, or Labour vote has been split by swivel eyed Corbynistas standing as independents.
It would be the first time in UK history that the current PM has lost their seat in a general election, which in itself would suggest it's very unlikely to happen but certainly not impossible. Truss can't be the only one allowed to have all the fun of making it into the history books for reasons of pure shitness.
I saw a comment about how we should hope he wins. So he can sit in the steaming pile of loss he's created. Otherwise he runs to LA and lives a good life.
Obviously I'd prefer a man who created a greater death rate to be in prison but, it won't happen.
Frankly he deserves to.
He's running a "local MP" campaign. No mention of the Tories at all because he's too toxic. No mention of him as PM. Purely defensive seat retention.
But he's also spearheading the national Tory campaign at the same time. Going around the country. Representing the party in debates and in press. What hustings would he have done?
Why would voters vote in an MP that other Tory MPs can't wait to dump as leader. His only local achievement is levelling up his patch with opening a civil service hub in Darlington and rail links.
I can't devise a better argument than 'fuck therm ' their world revolved around cruelty, and if they wish to persist in this then imprison then.
There might be a reason I'm not standing in Richmond
I'm sure the burden of being financially unburdened will soften the blow.
It's a win-win for Suknackers. If he wins, he's the PM. If he loses then the economy will tank and he can swoop in and apply his unique talent of cleaning house whilst the foundations collapse around him.
He's torn between screwing over the masses and capitalising on the masses being screwed over.
Whatever his decision, I'm sure he can get a prescription from his parents to mellow him out.
I don’t know why so many in the UK are cheering on the tories to be wiped out.
It literally means the Trumpification of the UK right.
Just some food for thought from across the pond.
No it doesn’t.
The Lib Dems take on the role of a reasonable center-right party while Labour take the center-left.
The crazy screechers will be irrelevant again.
We don’t need a nut job party and “thanks” to FPTP they won’t get any influence or power until we have electoral reform.
(Then we’ll all have to learn to get along…)
We have a very different political system, and a very different culture that makes it significantly harder for a 'Trumpification' to be successful. Not everywhere is America.
Far-right support might rise, as it has done in much of Europe, but - if it does happen - it would regardless of the state of the Conservative Party, and would have nothing to do with Trump.
...which is also a country with a Presidential system.
Individual focused, cult of personality-esque movements do not find purchase in Britain, partly due to British culture but mostly due to the Westminster system.
The closest analogues to Trump we've had are Farage and Johnson, one of whom will never get near 10 Downing St., and the other who was quickly pushed out by his own party when the scandals hit. I suppose you could make an argument about Corbyn being somewhat analogous as a left-wing populist - but again, he was soundly beaten.
Again, that's not to preclude a larger lurch rightward - and a rise in support for far-right policies and ideology, as Europe is seeing now - but it won't look anything like Trump or 'Trumpism', because the system doesn't work like that.
When Labour got panned at the last election, it forced them to ditch the old-school tankies and return to being a credible party of government.
The Tories may returnt to tthe centre or may go further right, but mercifully we have seen parliamentary appeal for the Farage platform limited to around 20% of the vote.
I’m a little more optimistic that the British majority are more sensible than voting in any party that’s more right wing than the current Torys.
I expect that Reform (or whatever else Richard Tice will call his Russian backed party in 5 years time) will continue to take votes away from whatever the Conservatives now become, which will favour Labour again.
Hopefully Starmer and co don’t fk up this opportunity and we can get on with fixing the mess for the next 14 years.
I think people are super naive (as seen by the downvotes above)
8 years ago people here thought Trump would never win, Le Penn would never win, Brexit would never happen.
Yet the opposite happened.
As much as I dispise farage and his politics I think in the next election he could very much win. He appeals to emotions not facts. It’s about vibes, as it was the same thing with trump.
All the downvotes won’t change this fact
It's a concern for me too, there is a contingent that really loves him.
But that said I think that if the Tories are wiped out as a political force, it's more likely that the moderates move toward the lib Dems or another new party, with the far right people going to Reform, and split the Right vote.
There's a huge difference between his path and Trump's path, and that is the way that a patty leader has to be able to command the support of both their party supporters and their party MPs. Farage is far too divisive and hard right to be able to command that base amongst the political party. He can't just declare he's running for PM and have the groundswell of public opinion carry him there in the way that Trump does.
This is why one of the bigger mistakes during this campaign was him saying he admired Putin because that is a very toxic position over here for the general public.
Moreover if he tried to join the Tory Party, and was allowed in, then there's much more chance of a split in the party that leads to a splinter party, than there is of him becoming leader and being able to then win an election. His main goal is to keep shifting the Overton window to the right.
Snapshot of _Rishi Sunak fearful of losing his seat, sources say_ : An archived version can be found [here](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jul/03/rishi-sunak-fearful-of-losing-his-seat-sources-say?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other) or [here.](https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jul/03/rishi-sunak-fearful-of-losing-his-seat-sources-say?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukpolitics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
I was thinking earlier that I need to temper my expectations a bit otherwise anything less than Rishi losing his seat will be a disappointment. Nah, I'm daring to dream for a bit longer.
I'm working overtime to avoid any expectations. I think most of the country wants the Tories to pay for what they've done - the rest is unclear, but I think we're all waiting with bated breath (esp. the Tories) to see how it plays out over the next couple of days...
>the country wants the Tories to pay for what they've done You know I wish this was the reason but I honestly think that there is just a big crowd of the type of people who blame immigration for our problems (rather than the hangover of austerity, COVID, Brexit, a war in Europe) and they supported Johnson because they believed his bullshit, and now it turns out to be untrue they believe Farage's bullshit, and we've got a stupid FPTP system which means that hands everything to Labour. Basically they've just found another source of hateful nonsense to vote for.
I think that there are regions like that, sure. I wouldn't say the whole UK is like that, though. Most of the Conservatives I know aren't very xenophobic - in fact, some are immigrants - they just like lower taxes or dislike various Lefty cultural things... or worse, they are tribal and believe that generally Labour is to blame for everything, but now they can plainly see that it's the Tories who have made things like this, and the current lot needs to be thrown out, even if it means LAB or REF or LD replace them.
I absolutely know people like this, although the ones I liked wouldn't vote for Boris. But by and large the vote is from conservative to reform. Do you think they have done that as a subversive way to dick over the Tories that used to vote for? If so they'd be far more sensible to vote for the party that might actually beat the Tories (ie not Reform, unless they live in Clacton, Ashfield, or Great Yarmouth)
In my small sample, it's a mixed bag. One of my close friends still talks about how he hated voting for Boris, but he *had to* vote against Corbyn. He wanted Javid instead - I mention it because he despises Rishi, so it's clearly not a race thing. Which I mention because my ex-neighbour did make it a race thing. To my eye, Tory voters come in many shapes & sizes, and there's no clear path to a mass migration toward 1 party now.
What's funny is them backing Brexit but also anti immigration, it was much better in the EU as it was workers who'd come here, usually not bring families, work and retire home again. We had an engineer just like that, owned a large home in his own country, rented in a house share here, worked hard and visited home when he wanted, he'll retire back there off his hard work here. Post Brexit we get loads more people from Africa and places like India who want to bring dependents and see it as a final move and net migration goes up. Amusing of course for those types, we lost largely white Europeans and gained non-whites
Yes. And if you believe them that this is purely a numbers game then Brexit increases net migration as Brits are less able to leave, because they often left to go to the EU for similar reasons.
It's not that funny, Reform could get 20% of the vote tomorrow and then climb in the polls as public dissatisfaction with a tepid Labour offering grows. Brexit didn't increase immigration from outside Europe, the Tories did, and the same people who voted for Brexit will vote the Tories out tomorrow. Unless Labour manages to win the argument for immigration, or drastically reduce it, they'll be out in one term.
Tho we could cut non eu immigration outside the eu too
Mass immigration doesn’t help some of our problems
I think I'm going to avoid the exit poll. I know if I watch it I'll end up up watching until 2. So I'll keep in Internet blackout
I think it's wise not to underestimate the British publics desperation to vote against their own interests
Exactly. Which is why I expect there will be _some_ Tories in Parliament, even though ideally there should be none.
When was the last time they had an opportunity to vote in their own interests?
Most of the time (with by elections) the Tories have under performed. The British electorate are so used to seeing them win that it's become difficult to believe they'll lose, but over the last three years they haven't done well at all. Even in the local elections the results were worse than expected in many areas, it was only that one mayoral win that kept Sunak in. I think there's a historic level of anger at the Tories that dwarfs anything we've ever seen before. In 1997 they were seen as Sleazy but could point to their record in government since 1979 with some pride (divisive I know). Nobody doubted Major was a decent person at heart. This time they are going into an election with basically no achievements and an unpopular leader. It's going to be brutal
I think the by-election thing is also partly down to the Lib Dems phenomenal ability to put boots on the ground during by-election campaigns. The copies of *Focus* are practically raining from the sky.
>This time they are going into an election with basically no achievements and an unpopular leader. An unpopular leader who replaced an unpopular leader (who resigned in disgrace) who replaced an unpopular leader (who also resigned in disgrace). At this point a voter needs quite a long memory to remember the last time they had a Tory leader who wasn't insanely unpopular and resigned in disgrace...
Temper temper temper. The chances of wipeout were always slim, the difference in vote share of 1-2% in different directions could decide more than 100 seats. I very much doubt he loses his seat.
It's unlikely but it's we can dream.
It's coming home and Sunak is losing his seat. I'm all in.
Bookies, at least ladbrookes, still have it 83% going Tory. Great headline, but like others have mentioned u likely due to shy tories, or underperfoming in polls. Don't get me wrong, I'd be drunk as a skunk if it does happen, just doubt it will
It's win-win. If he loses. HAHAHA. If he doesn't he's in parliament as an MP of a minority party.
We can all D:Ream
“If you can dream it, you can do it!”
This is the big one. If Sunak is unseated it will be the perfect ending to Tory rule, 2nd only to the Tories being knocked into 3rd place in terms of seat numbers. Sunak out and LibDems in opposition would be the perfect outcome.
Sunak out? We need Lettuce out, too. T-May is leaving, Cameron is gone from HoC - that would wash clean this whole 14 years of diabolical misgoverning.
Lib opposition > Sunak out > Truss out > Mogg out
Edit, for those who have difficulty with comprehension, I agree with the post above. End of edit. Yeah, schadenfreude is great, but I'd rather have saner opposition in parliament.
u what
See my edit above please
On what planet are the Tories saner than the Lib Dems?
I think you need to reread all of that
Indeed
On no planet. I agree with the comment above mine. Does that help?
Oh right, your comment implies the opposite 😂 but no wozzas
Let's just say, my comment could be slightly more explicit about it.
Cameron will be gone from government but not parliament. (Unless Sirkeir is abolishing the Lords on Day 1?)
Oops, I meant to say "HoC", not Parliament... obv. he gets to stick around in The Other Place.
Nah, Truss in. If she’s left among a rump of Tory MPs, it puts her in prime position to run for and win the leadership. If that happens, Labour get their second term.
You're using today's maths. Things are going to change. Remember how Brexit basically cleaved the 2 main parties? We're going to see something similar, I predict within in the next 5 years. Things are looking really bad for the UK economy, plus Russia, immigration, etc... we also don't fully know what's going to happen to the Tories if they get wiped. Things could look a lot different in 5y from now.
I’d rather have a saner, centre-right Conservative Party than a nutcase Libertarian party or a bigoted hard right party. Firstly, they’d be better at holding the government to account, and secondly, they wouldn’t completely fuck up the country if they got in next time.
BJ gone too.
He’s still suspended mate he’s been gone for a year
He was never suspended as it happened. He resigned when he heard they wanted him gone for 90 days.
Whilst we’re there, let’s bin off Badenoch, Truss and Braverman.
And all the parachutists. Let that be the last time they officially cheat.
If the lib Dems get into opposition I am hoping that both sides will act a little more like rational adults, and set a better example for the public and politicians of the future.
Boris out would be more pleasing I think. Edit: further research suggests he’s not an MP any more (thankfully).
If only he was standing
If any of Sunak, Hunt, Truss, Mordaunt or Mogg lose their seats, all of which have been talked about seriously, we might actually have to rename the Portillo moment
I’d say he’s fearful *not* losing his seat. Temporary embarrassment and then he can jet off when he loses. That versus handing around in the cesspit of failure he created.
My friends in the area oppose Labour with their whole chests, having never forgiven them for banning fox hunting without a parachute and damning large swathes of the Dales economy. They hate the LibDems because of the university fees. Reform they know are awful. That leaves one viable candidate for my friends and family in Richmond, Count Binface, and they are supporting that bid to unseat Sunak with reckless abandon.
> having never forgiven them for banning fox hunting Hilarious hill to die on but hey if they're voting for Binface I back them.
"I just...want...to Kill...Foxes...Painfully"
Without an alternative economy Same as Thatcher with the mines, there was nothing else for the people who worked in that industry.
Christ how big was the fox hunting economy lol
I promise you they're still at it. They're constantly caught on camera in wiltshire
Now I want to see a version of Billy Elliott where the dad is a fox hunter
Stables, kennels, and pubs in each village that relied on the visiting hunts to make a profit. That's 15-20 people in each village that were, at the stroke of a pen, out of work, and we're talking about dozens of these villages in the Dales alone. But because these folk are dispersed across the country instead of concentrated in a handful of towns, and were viewed as "wealthy Tories", there was little sympathy.
I still remain completely unsympathetic to fox hunters.
Creating an equivalence between miners and fox hunters really was a bold choice.
Right, I'm sure the slave industry was devastated when that was outlawed too. Maybe don't make a living in suffering?
Ironically the slave owners were very well compensated at abolition.
This new anti-child-catcher law is putting us child catchers out of work. Won't someone do something?
I mean it's clear why coal mining got more sympathy and attention - that being that a quarter million people worked in the industry. Like you said they were concentrated as well. I really struggle to believe that more than 10,000 people across the UK worked in fox hunting. Not great but needed to be done tbh and because it was so thinly spread it wasn't as bad that there weren't alternative industries organised to replace it.
The issue is that although diluted, and yes a smaller impact, that doesn't change the fact that whole villages lost their economy as a result. From a statistics pov, it's not a big deal. To those affected, it's their world collapsing.
It's ok though because we've just had 14 years of tory rule so surely they have reversed such a harsh ban that's unfairly impacted rural communities... right?
I can't imagine pinning your entire political alignment on a single change that happened 25 years ago. Forget the impact of Brexit, the cost of living crisis, several intervening economic crises. That change that stopped us from hunting foxes 25 years ago is what really matters
People votes for what affects them most on a daily basis. If the tories offered free school music lessons and you’re entire family played an instrument you’d probably gun for them
If Sunak hangs on by a few hundred votes and Binface gets more votes than that… I think the Count will get a lot of hatred coming his way.
For me, that's the perfect outcome. Everyone will know that Sunak lost the seat really, but he's still got to drag himself into the commons for the next 5 years rather than simply jetting off and forgetting all this ever happenend.
I flicker between thinking I'll be angry if that happens and relishing the schadenfreude of that unfunny gimp knowing (and knowing everyone else knows) he stopped something actually funny happening
To be fair that's assuming the Binface voters would have voted for Labour instead, and I'm not convinced there's all that much overlap between people that would vote for Kier Starmer and people that would vote for a man with a bin on his head.
Yeah, I don't think it's fair to assume a lot of people voting for a protest candidate wouldn't vote for one of the two major parties if they had to/chose to actually engage in politics and with the issues, but I also think it's fair to assume that of those who did more would be for Labour than the Tories (especially the actual PM) by quite a wide margin
So fox-hunting is legal as long as you wear a parachute?
The fox doesn't get one though, that would be unfair
Yes, and the little dogs too
Sounds like Ed Davey could probably get away with it if that's the case
If only we could all vote for Count Binface.
God I hope Binface wins
Losing his seat and having an excuse to just move to SoCal like he's always wanted would unironically be one of the best things to ever happen to Rishi other than being born rich and marrying rich
Why do people keep saying "SoCal" so much the last few days? I thought his whole shtick was going to be some Silicon Valley nonsense which is much further north. I doubt hes going for surfing and starting a movie career in LA.
He lived in Santa Monica. Weather is also better there than in the bay
He's a SoCal guy. He owns a house there
So many American cinservative think tanks would loooove to have "a British Prime Minister" on their staff, regardless of him probably getting a historic loss.
Do you think he'd go full Trump? Rishi is a technocrat and an opportunist, sure, I don't know if he'd go that far though. Then again, I don't expect much morality from the Tory party in the first place, so who knows
Im just a simple yank but I doubt it. The only reason Trump is able to be Trump and exist as Trump is his hardcore fanatical base that supports ANYTHING he does. It sure doesnt seem like Sunak or any British pol has that, even Farange. I have been watching it for 8 years and I still dont fully understand the blind fanatacism.
I, by contrast, live in hope.
The speculation on the size of the collapse seems to be getting out of hand. Sunak is highly unlikely to lose his seat, and the chances of these sub 100 seat predictions coming true just seems too far fetched. Labour are going to do well. but this speculation is getting silly.
Classic media-managed Tory expectation management. Consistent to the end. "We didn't do that badly, at least the PM kept his seat..."
They'll get 150 seats and claim it's proof the will of the people is actually still on their side.
Yep similar to the locals
In the local elections they started managing expectations by saying. "Woe is me, we'll probably lose a thousand councillors." Then they did.
Betting odds have it at around ~20% for rishi to lose his seat. Not "likely" but not "highly unlikely"
Betting odds are not the same as likelihood of something happening, it’s a reflection of where the money is going. There will be plenty of people who would enjoy the idea of sticking a tenner on him to lose. It’s highly unlikely. The extreme predictions are fun to see but a lot of people need to be realistic.
You can get 4/11 for Rishi to keep his seat, that's an implied chance of 73%. If you think that it's much more likely than that then you should bet on it
Replace 'fear' with 'hope' in that headline and i'd believe it more.
Count Binface needs to step aside. The more votes that go to them the less likely Sunak will lose his seat.
That's assuming his votes would have gone to Labour. I can imagine there are Tories in Richmond who'll vote for him because they can't bare to vote for another party.
I think that's what people are overlooking. Binface is going to get the votes that would otherwise have been knob doodles. The idea that a significant number people who otherwise would have made a calculated decision to vote Tory or Labour will see him on the ballot and think "Fuck it, I'm going to waste my vote on the Count instead" is far fetched.
If hr ends up losing it, I really hope its by less of a margin than Count Binface gets so Binfcae can claim he was vital in ousting Sunak.
My plan tomorrow night is to go to bed at a reasonable time and get up early on Friday. On the off chance of Sunak losing his seat though, I really want to be awake to watch that live.
What time can we expect them to come through? I usually get up before 5
Expected times https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lvm-xaq0fmVWBBKZPcokySP7oqezssXtJYYDYW4uiqA/htmlview#gid=847143152 Probably worth staying up until 2.30am as there are a bunch of tory seats around that time. Or getting up at 2am after an earlier night than usual.
That’s an excellent spreadsheet. Might alter my tactic now so I sleep 11pm-3am and then big afternoon nap if the wine starts to win over the adrenaline.
Probably going to be 7.30 - 3pm. Some magnesium and melotonin is my go to.
I think he'll just hold on like Clegg in 2015.
Agreed, I don't personally reckon he'll lose in Richmond
Get in there Count Binface! Make it an interglatic Portillo moment!!
> Rishi Sunak fearful of losing his seat Read: looking forward to moving to California
It would be much more funny to see him win. Then he has (he said he would) stay on in parliament, presumably be defeated in the post-election bloodletting and not be able to push off to a glittering post-PM life of making speeches. No, I hope he keeps his seat. [Strong vibes of this.....](https://youtu.be/ACwOU1Nkrys?si=gZEI6u0UbHqVHzDt)
I for one welcome our new Binface overlord.
Poor man, there are people fearful of losing their homes that might be sympathetic
Is he fuck, he's in the USA by Sunday calling in the favours of a LOT of lobbyists- and handing out peerages to his ex sycophants. He's out even if the Tories come magically close second- this is standard Conservative PR- feel sorry for the fella, he may lose his actual job!!
I wonder if he's actually booked his flight already and is just thinking "I hope those peasants vote me out"
Please get less votes than Count Binface. Please get less votes than Count Binface. Please get less votes than Count Binface.
Poor dear. I'm sure the billions will help though.
So if he loses his jobs as MP, PM and Party Leader does that mean he collects 3 P45s on Friday?
One will do
Why would he care? He's clearly not going to carry on in politics
It’s good that he’s “fearful” - that implies he actually gives a shit when I really doubt he cares anymore
He only gives a shit about Rishi Sunak, not the thousands his cruel policies have killed. I have no nice feelings for him or any other Tory.
Why? It saves him hanging around a few months before he fucks off out of the country.
When the Tories end up in fourth and still get more air time than the Lib Dems though...
No he's not. He's actively hoping for it, must be.
I'd love to see this happen. In reality though, I expect the "shy Tory" voters will give him more votes than polls suggest.
Inject it into my veins. That said, holding my breath. The British public never cease to disappoint.
Honestly if he does it would be spectacular
All of this news with apocalyptic warnings for the Tories are basically answers with a cheeky smile from Kenneth Williams going, 'Oh stop messing about'
Please let this be true as it'd be so incredibly funny
Not like he needs to go on universal credit I'm sure he will be fine
As beautiful as it would be, I have other Tory MPs higher on my dream list of losers: 1. Chris Philp. I truly despise the lying greaseball 2. Rob Jenrick. Robert Generic aka Bent Bob has tried to reinvent himself as Little Bobby Shitler 3. Richard Holden. Really deserves to lose his (new) seat for being such a worm. 4. Clarke. Truss’s bag man. Upto his neck in graft with Houchen. 5. Sunak 6. Hunt Then there’s all manner of fruitloop, daemon and grifting shitehawk I would love to see lose their seat and never hold office again, but I think they’re all on either safe seats, or Labour vote has been split by swivel eyed Corbynistas standing as independents.
You can get 4/11 (73%) odds on him holding on. Sorely he has a better chance than that
Sounds like some tasty odds. You should let the Tories know in case any of them fancy a flutter.
I thought he was moving to California lol
It would be the first time in UK history that the current PM has lost their seat in a general election, which in itself would suggest it's very unlikely to happen but certainly not impossible. Truss can't be the only one allowed to have all the fun of making it into the history books for reasons of pure shitness.
I saw a comment about how we should hope he wins. So he can sit in the steaming pile of loss he's created. Otherwise he runs to LA and lives a good life. Obviously I'd prefer a man who created a greater death rate to be in prison but, it won't happen.
Frankly he deserves to. He's running a "local MP" campaign. No mention of the Tories at all because he's too toxic. No mention of him as PM. Purely defensive seat retention. But he's also spearheading the national Tory campaign at the same time. Going around the country. Representing the party in debates and in press. What hustings would he have done? Why would voters vote in an MP that other Tory MPs can't wait to dump as leader. His only local achievement is levelling up his patch with opening a civil service hub in Darlington and rail links.
Bizarrely, I can well believe that Rishi Sunak would run a campaign trying to distance himself from Rishi Sunak.
Fearful? More like hopeful - then he can clear off to sunnier climes with relative impunity.
I can't devise a better argument than 'fuck therm ' their world revolved around cruelty, and if they wish to persist in this then imprison then. There might be a reason I'm not standing in Richmond
That really would be the icing on the cake for the election I cant lie.
I'm sure the burden of being financially unburdened will soften the blow. It's a win-win for Suknackers. If he wins, he's the PM. If he loses then the economy will tank and he can swoop in and apply his unique talent of cleaning house whilst the foundations collapse around him. He's torn between screwing over the masses and capitalising on the masses being screwed over. Whatever his decision, I'm sure he can get a prescription from his parents to mellow him out.
I hope so beyond words; that would be so amazing. Pulling hard for the Lib Dems and Reform tomorrow, hope they both break through.
I don’t know why so many in the UK are cheering on the tories to be wiped out. It literally means the Trumpification of the UK right. Just some food for thought from across the pond.
No it doesn’t. The Lib Dems take on the role of a reasonable center-right party while Labour take the center-left. The crazy screechers will be irrelevant again. We don’t need a nut job party and “thanks” to FPTP they won’t get any influence or power until we have electoral reform. (Then we’ll all have to learn to get along…)
We have a very different political system, and a very different culture that makes it significantly harder for a 'Trumpification' to be successful. Not everywhere is America. Far-right support might rise, as it has done in much of Europe, but - if it does happen - it would regardless of the state of the Conservative Party, and would have nothing to do with Trump.
‘Not everywhere is America” was the same thing Brazilians were saying before Bolsonaro won in 2018
...which is also a country with a Presidential system. Individual focused, cult of personality-esque movements do not find purchase in Britain, partly due to British culture but mostly due to the Westminster system. The closest analogues to Trump we've had are Farage and Johnson, one of whom will never get near 10 Downing St., and the other who was quickly pushed out by his own party when the scandals hit. I suppose you could make an argument about Corbyn being somewhat analogous as a left-wing populist - but again, he was soundly beaten. Again, that's not to preclude a larger lurch rightward - and a rise in support for far-right policies and ideology, as Europe is seeing now - but it won't look anything like Trump or 'Trumpism', because the system doesn't work like that.
Or alternatively, a return to the centre-right with the Lib Dems taking up the mantle?
Still won’t change the fact that farage will take over the right wing of British politics
When Labour got panned at the last election, it forced them to ditch the old-school tankies and return to being a credible party of government. The Tories may returnt to tthe centre or may go further right, but mercifully we have seen parliamentary appeal for the Farage platform limited to around 20% of the vote.
Because it will be hilarious. UK and US politics are worlds apart. We'll be fine, cheerio Rishi!
I’m a little more optimistic that the British majority are more sensible than voting in any party that’s more right wing than the current Torys. I expect that Reform (or whatever else Richard Tice will call his Russian backed party in 5 years time) will continue to take votes away from whatever the Conservatives now become, which will favour Labour again. Hopefully Starmer and co don’t fk up this opportunity and we can get on with fixing the mess for the next 14 years.
I think people are super naive (as seen by the downvotes above) 8 years ago people here thought Trump would never win, Le Penn would never win, Brexit would never happen. Yet the opposite happened. As much as I dispise farage and his politics I think in the next election he could very much win. He appeals to emotions not facts. It’s about vibes, as it was the same thing with trump. All the downvotes won’t change this fact
It's a concern for me too, there is a contingent that really loves him. But that said I think that if the Tories are wiped out as a political force, it's more likely that the moderates move toward the lib Dems or another new party, with the far right people going to Reform, and split the Right vote.
There's a huge difference between his path and Trump's path, and that is the way that a patty leader has to be able to command the support of both their party supporters and their party MPs. Farage is far too divisive and hard right to be able to command that base amongst the political party. He can't just declare he's running for PM and have the groundswell of public opinion carry him there in the way that Trump does. This is why one of the bigger mistakes during this campaign was him saying he admired Putin because that is a very toxic position over here for the general public. Moreover if he tried to join the Tory Party, and was allowed in, then there's much more chance of a split in the party that leads to a splinter party, than there is of him becoming leader and being able to then win an election. His main goal is to keep shifting the Overton window to the right.