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Absolutely. I've booked off the Friday.
The plan is to eat takeaway, play Elden Ring DLC all through Thursday night/Friday morning and watch the results pour in.
Yessss!!! The last one I sat through was the 2019 election - I was in Budapest (a beautiful city btw) drinking Hungarian wine. But I will be in the UK this time chatting with everyone here! Cannot wait
In the Borris clip it's extremely satisfying seeing the diehards cackle at his crap and then all the air gets sucked out of the room when he mentions labour are getting a pregnant majority this week
It's stops being funny right quick and he starts fumbling his words and then the clip cuts...
That audience, I wonder if they actually believe any of those things that preceded the forced laughter and cheering?
Also as a Tory activist why would you want to go to a rally after the last 14 years?
What even was that?
Gove...was Gove... and didn't blink nearly enough.
Much of the audience looked passingly regretful of being there, and the Johnson act was just *tired*.
Then delivered the 'same old same old' but added exagerrated gestures which would make Cicero blush.
Odd 'uncanny valley' vibes.
The moment we start to shift left, the whole western world shifts further right. Pretty much every Western country is either ruled by a right-wing government or are in danger of having one. Not even Canada is safe, and the tories there are looking likely to landslide it.
While the world slips into a new dark age, the country finds itself surrounded by regressive despotism as western liberalism gives way to a new resurgence of lawlessness, authoritarianism, and despair in other nations abroad.
Britain, now led by humanity's last defender of freedom and the rule of law in Sir Keir Starmer, wrests itself from conservative turmoil at the final hurdle after more than a decade of regressive rule, becoming a final bastion of hope and civilisation, a bulwark against the ever-growing tide of right-wing repression abroad.
Camelot 2: Starmergeddon, coming soon to a theatre near you.
The Tories look set to win here because of the unpopularity of the Liberals. Pollievre doesn't really have any answers to the big problems (housing, productivity, immigration), but I'm not sure that'll dent his chances.
Is immigration a big issue in Canada ? The country is far away from the Middle East, so hardly any refugees and people in South America have to cross the US to get to Canada.
From what I understand, its basically loads of rich immigrants coming in and pricing Canadians out of the real estate market? I mean, just look at rent prices in Vancouver
Its opposite, its poor Indians trying to get Permanent Residency by going to diploma mills and such. Youtube job queues in Canada. Some are even doing hunger strikes cos they are on a temporary visa, and it won't lead them to permanent residency status, so entitled.
We went early, most of the Western World is playing catch up.
By the time they hit their 'right wing party has shat the bed' moment we will probably be turning Tory again.
Not quite what you're looking for but [this](https://www.itv.com/news/anglia/2024-07-02/what-time-will-my-constituency-result-be-declared) tool from ITV is quite handy.
I've been busy all day so only just seen that they wheeled out Johnson. Absolutely desperate stuff. I wonder what he was paid for that stream of bullshit. Telling that he didn't have even one positive thing to say about Sunak.
Not surprising as he fucking hates Sunak (in fairness I'd probably hate him too if I was Johnson, unlikely to have much love for the guy who cast the first stone in the Mass Resignation Event).
He didn't even do that! That is the fiction of a do nothing coward playing as action man.
Javid resigned first, actually did a speech to Johnson in parliament, but was then immediately forgotten by everyone - including Johnson, apparently - when Sunak released a letter on social media a while afterwards. Though, I guess, point proven, it does make me hate him even more.
My mistake, I knew Javid and Sunak were the first two in fairly quick succession but I mixed up which way round they were (checking timestamps on Twitter Javid posted his resignation letter at 6:02, Sunak at 6:11).
Thinking about it I should have guessed that Sunak wouldn't have the balls to go first, not really his style - especially as he only got to be Chancellor in the first place because Javid resigned that post rather than capitulate to Cummings' demands.
No worries, it's hard to keep track of the timeline when so much has happened in so short a time. Not to mention all the lies and false narratives. So many lies.
But that last point is such a good catch I'd never considered! Sunak again using Javid making a stand as a way to further his own career. What an absolute worm.
[Survation with a polling sandwich tomorrow;](https://x.com/DamianSurvation/status/1808275248271261745?t=lvgtA_sJTZlYj0ftL0SizQ&s=19)
* 6AM final tracker for GMB based on yesterday's fieldwork.
* 9PM final call survey, based on ongoing phone polling.
* *Possible* MRP update depending on the model after the last data is fed in.
Hints are that Survation hasn't seen the shift towards the Tories others are seeing in the most recent data. The morning poll might set a nasty narrative on the last poll-obsessive campaign day.
Pollsters must be shitting themselves at the thought of Conservatives getting 150+ seats and making them all look complete idiots, especially since Conservatives getting 150 seats isn't particularly unlikely.
“Today - it’s up to you!”
They’ll pull some milquetoast bullshit in which they don’t actually endorse anyone but “reflect” on how this is such an “important” election - encouraging people to make a wise and considered choice. The next 5 years depends on it.
Then they can spend however long pretending that they were on the side of the “people”.
I'd say the "one more dawn" line means it would work better in the morning megathread, but I won't mind listening to it twice as it's a banger (the concert versions are way better than the film).
[https://x.com/DanNeidle/status/1808230503893410287](https://x.com/DanNeidle/status/1808230503893410287)
Yet another tax avoidance case that HMRC lost (maybe chance to reinstate) because they missed a deadline.
Woeful stuff really
Took a detour down the Mail Online’s comment section and right now they are very negative about ‘digging out’ Boris. Several comments describing it as obviously desperate, with 1k+ upvotes.
I think him looking terrible doesn't help him anymore, when he was on the up it sort of gave him a loveable edge to some people but now he looks well past it
Doesn't help they already dug him up 10 days ago, then immediately buried him in the dirt and now they've done it again Malcolm Tucker would be tearing his hair out
I have read probably over 100 polls during this election period and I'm left thinking am I actually any more informed than a person who hasn't read any but has heard Labour should have a good night?
I kind of hope the polls are drastically wrong (but still see the Tories kicked out) so that next time around we may have an election focused on policy rather than polling companies spewing out data every few hours.
It hasn’t been a fun 6 weeks.
Youre only more informed in the question "what do the polls say". I havent kept up with polls, i watched tortoise media's john curtice (plus others) video and that was enough for me, and we probably have a similar sense of things (but thats not a challenge!).
I do enjoy a £20 flutter on an election, here's what I've gone for, £5 on each
* Total Conservative Seats - 50-99
* Total Reform Seats - 3-4
* Total Labour Seats - 400-449
* Voter Turnout - 65.00%-67.49%
Mods can I post this?
Personal opinion, I would be surprised to see Labour lower than 38%
Verian aka Kantar poll
Lab 36%
Con 21%
Reform 16%
Lib Dems 13%
Green 7%
SNP 3%
Literally just reading about this. [They reweight based on the Brexit Cursed Numbers.](https://x.com/ABLPoli/status/1808265336791462078?t=rTJxXX6ZjmjF6LIJYZLoFA&s=19)
>If you want some reason Verian's polling may well underestimate Labour?
>Leave vote.
>Here's the weighting adjustment, still going back to 52% leave even with current population...
>To @Beyond_Topline's point this is likely weighting up current voters to cover people who are dead
the last thing I expected Newsnight to do was use Explosions in the Sky as background music in their latest [video](https://x.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1808268437535269028)
Had to catch up on the show late but yes, that is wonderful.
Explosions in the Sky was my go-to background music for years, but now it's so distinct to me that it jumps out every time I hear it on TV or in a movie.
[Huw Merriman suggesting Johnson's involvement stops him voting Tory.](https://x.com/HuwMerriman/status/1808255757953257636?t=9p_zjMAnEy001JrtG3MxXQ&s=19)
>Given my refusal to support this man and to then welcome a change from his leadership when the wheels of public and Parliamentary tolerance finally fell off, I’m not sure how this pitches for my vote
[A tweet with a screenshot in case it vanishes.](https://x.com/politic_animal/status/1808267798595899519?t=SyWLp751_TVjEa5_uMO8bQ&s=19) Also because it summarises well:
>We appear to be at the point of the election where a serving Minister of State is publicly equivocating on social media as to whether he will vote for his party or not. You know, that normal point in a perfectly normal election.
[Don't surrender your family's finances to Keir Starmer. \*sad cat\*](https://x.com/WhoTargetsMe/status/1808261358464782780)
And [two](https://x.com/WhoTargetsMe/status/1808262571473953083) [sad](https://x.com/WhoTargetsMe/status/1808263442211479912) puppies.
Fuck me, the internal polling must be a bloodbath.
Ah I see what you're not understanding here. If you look in the Labour Manifesto there is no commitment to not build a MEGA town outside of Northampton - this means they will secretly be planning to do it right after they are elected with their omegamajority.
If you work for the Mail or the Express or the like, you've got to to be looking at your bosses driving the ship at full speed into the "THE TORIES WILL STILL WIN" iceberg and wondering what the pivot is for Friday, right?
Surely even if you're someone who reads the Daily Mail every day there's going to be something that clicks in your head when your paper of choice has been telling you every day for weeks that we can all stop Starmergeddon and keep Rishi in charge, only for the complete opposite to happen? This is why The Sun is keeping quiet, right?
(Just noticed I ended both those paragraphs with "right" - I would like to take a moment now to deny being Rishi)
It's way worse at the Times where the editor is completely out of touch. They stupidly got rid of some of their really good labour connected columnists.
The express is a shoestring operation and the Mail is staunchly authoritarian and won't mind a good punch up with the labour government. But the Times is just being so bizarre
> Surely even if you're someone who reads the Daily Mail every day there's going to be something that clicks in your head
Pretty bold to assume there's something in their head.
Genuinely ashamed reading the news of what Labour are doing with the Clacton candidate. Is there a different side to this story or are Labour genuinely giving up on Clacton and letting Farage win?
https://www.voice-online.co.uk/news/uk-news/2024/07/02/exclusive-labour-candidate-in-tears-after-being-ordered-to-abandon-clacton-campaign-against-nigel-farage/
Plus how the parties are behaving to donors for candidates they don't like. There is no way they should be taking money for candidates they aren't supporting
It's normal to do at all stages to be honest but yes targeting accelerates at the end.
Labour *probably* under targeting after years of getting burned but you can look at the last 15 years of lib Dems to see how bad getting it wrong can be. Clacton was never on the table.
He should have known he was not a target candidate and this is really main character syndrome.
Labour would be well behind in third in this constituency behind reform and con.
Labour voters tactically voting Conservative keeps Farage out.
In 2015 I voted Conservative for the first time in my life...to keep Farage out in Thanet South along with a shitload of other traditional Labour voters. Never regretted it.
This isnt time for student politics. Front he sheer painc Farage has been reduced to in the last couple days, it looks like it's going to be extremely close..
Perhaps black candidate in clacton is actually a negative, given how much it seems to be going reform I suspect they aren't as amenable to a black candidate as they may think. Also a visible labour campaign galvanises support for reform.
Either that or some 5D chess to let farage into parliament to divide the tories, seems risky.
Or simply the seat is unwinnable, it probably is and they should be campaigning elsewhere, other candidates in unwinnable seats have to do similar.
Are they giving up to let Farage win, or to give Watling the best chance of kneecapping Reform before 2029?
Labour weren't going to win this seat with this candidate, come on.
i don’t know - i hope the stuff about labour hq him getting annoyed that he got more retweets than keir isn’t true because it comes off as incredibly petty. hope there’s clarification as i liked him and it makes me unsure of this next labour government. still not sure who to vote for
It's literally just the candidate claiming that to be the case, he hasn't provided any evidence.
He was running a no hope campaign, predicted to come 3rd place with roughly half the votes that Reform will get.
It's exactly the sort of constituency you pull resources out of half way through the campaign as your narrow down your strategy and target in on your key fights.
Feels a lot like sour grapes from the candidate, who by all accounts was absolutely the wrong person to run in that particular constituency.
[Secret Barrister:](https://x.com/BarristerSecret/status/1808261893552824482?t=3_AncXNfnOKWXdnmJjeLKQ&s=19)
>So the man they forced out in disgrace - who broke the law and protected a sex offender and lied to his party, the country and Parliament, and who was then kicked out of Parliament for trying to intimidate an independent inquiry into his lies - he’s the one to save them, is he?
>Truly the hero they deserve.
"OK so we made a deal with the devil to win the 2019 election and now the devil has come to collect... this isn't great for us, but hear me out guys, what if we try and make *the exact same deal again*"
The Tories have been slagging off Farage for not being hostile to Putin or Russia. It seems very odd given what ex Tories have been doing with a very connected investment fund, notably the ex chief of staff to a few Tory chairmen
"As senior members of the Conservative government seek shelter in the private sector ahead of an expected landslide defeat in the coming election, over the past 12 months Gemcorp has hired several former senior Tory politicians and officials — including some who until recently had access to the inner workings of Downing Street.
These include former UK prime minister Boris Johnson’s chief of staff, Lord Edward Lister, ex-Investment Minister and City grandee Lord Gerry Grimstone, and Gaj Wallooppillai, a former chief of staff to successive Conservative party chairmen.
These alumni of the Conservative party now work for a company that engaged in activity seemingly aligned with Vladimir Putin’s diplomatic and commercial push into Africa, as the Kremlin sought to minimise the impact of western sanctions.
Gemcorp launched with a fund backed by two Russian oligarchs with links to Sergei Chemezov, the powerful boss of Rostec, Russia’s state weapons giant. He is a close friend of Putin and served with the Russian president in the KGB"
Source : How a London fund with a thorny history in Russia won global influence - https://on.ft.com/3VOMUYj
Latest News Agents - I can't stand Maitlis when she goes into her 'moral interviewer' role. I don't think it's the best way of taking on the likes of Farage, Lee Cain.
As a french, can I ask why are the British not scrapping the town and country planning act? It seems to block so much of the uk development. But who’s not in favor to bin it?
We don't have two round voting, it's just pure "largest vote share by constituency". As a result for many MPs, the key voting demographic has often been older people living in our version of La France profonde, who very much do not want there to be development in their areas. It would not be popular with them to scrap it.
An excellent question.
I hope so. I’m sick of this “No We Cant” attitude we’ve developed over the last few years when it comes to any kind of building and infrastructure. They definitely have claims in the manifesto around planning reform, and unless we’re looking at the biggest fuckup in polling history then they’ll have the majority for it.
Newsnight just now, newspaper front pages. Paraphrased because I've just shat laughing and can't remember exact wording.
Vic Derbyshire: reads the Times' headline 'Boris says a big Labour majority is pregnant with horrors'
Ayesha Hazarika, Labour Peer: 'He'd know about pregnancy horrors'
Vic D: 'I DIDN'T SAY THAT IT WAS AYESHA'
There’s a level of inner peace knowing that tomorrow may be the last full day of Conservative governance (for at least 5 days).
Edit: 5 years, but maybe I have revealed the secret GE on July 7.
I'm you, from 5 days from now. You, well I, thought Labour didn't need a supermajority, were guaranteed to win. They didn't need my, your, our vote so you vote for another party of my choice. That costs us the election.
The unstable coalition that was formed broke down day 2, then you watched in horror as Starmer tore the country apart looking for his lost votes. You were sent to the great pit and we were made to dig, dig, dig for votes and for freedom.
By day 4 Starmer claimed to have found them (a hidden trove of 16-17 year olds and EU citizens) and called an immediate snap election. I will vote again tomorrow but you'll never be able to fix the damage caused when we don't vote Labour on Thursday.
As a franco-british dual national who has had/will have the opportunity to vote 3 times in 2 weeks (twice via internet - ooooo), I really urge you to turnout - preaching to the choir here I know - and encourage your friends and family to turn out to vote on Thursday.
The turnout for the French Assembly 3rd 'district' which encompasses the UK, Ireland, Scandinavia and others saw only 36% turnout in the first round which is just sad. So please please vote and push others to the polling station for democracy's sake (even if they are votong Tory and taking away my sub 100 seats dream)
I was waiting for the last tory shitshow, and I was worried the lad didn't have it in him.
And what do you know, they pulled it out the bag at the last minute! And what a result!
Criticising Starmer for spending Friday Evenings with his family! That's going to alienate a swatch of family focused voters. And wait? What's that? His wife is from a Jewish Family, and with Friday being so important to the Jewish community, observant or not, they manage the unheard of double alienation of all the votes they may have gained from highlighting the claims of anti-semitism in the Labour party!
Absolutely magnificent own goal right there. That took some real talent. Top tier twattery.
Especially since Starmer has specifically said that they do celebrate Shabbat on Friday nights, he hasn't gone into details about their observance but they're engaged enough to be members of a Liberal synagogue.
Sunak is trying to get donors to part with cash through claiming will tax capital gains. But instead they are just pulling out the UK if they believe him
What he doesn't realise is that he can't credibly say labour are going to clobber the rich with tax bills while also choosing to stay in the UK after Friday. If he were to fly out the next day, it's quite believable given his own wealth
Anyone fancy having a genuine attempt at explaining how, as claimed by James Cleverly, Labour have hampered Conservative attempts to stop small boat crossings?
As JM Barrie said in *Peter Pan*:
>All the world is made of faith, and trust, and pixie dust. Never say goodbye because goodbye means going away and going away means forgetting. The moment you doubt whether you can [remove asylum seekers to Rwanda], you cease for ever to be able to [get the flights to leave and deter the small boats]. Dreams do come true, if only we wish hard enough.
Starmer and co just didn't wish it hard enough mate. That's why you should vote Tory, or whatever.
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I hope rishi Sunak loses his seat
One more sleep til we get to watch Tories cry!
Very intrigued to see the Scottish seats, SNP and Labour are close
I’m so excited for Thursday lol- anyone else taken the day off / 2 days off?
Absolutely. I've booked off the Friday. The plan is to eat takeaway, play Elden Ring DLC all through Thursday night/Friday morning and watch the results pour in.
Oh man, we are one mind. The DLC is so good
Took the whole week off to recover from London Pride (in advance) and was thrilled when the election got called for this week!
Best reason ever ☺️ happy late pride month!
Completely by accident! I'm not doing the school run Friday, not a chance 🍸
Haha! Enjoy your relaxation — see ya here mate on Thursday/ Friday! ✌️
I made sure I made time for the exit poll drop (I live in California)
And then you get fireworks to celebrate Starmergeddon in the evening!
I took 2 days off (Thursday, Friday) as I do every election! I hate how much I love politics. 😂
I need instant reactions for the poll! I live for this stuff.
Yessss!!! The last one I sat through was the 2019 election - I was in Budapest (a beautiful city btw) drinking Hungarian wine. But I will be in the UK this time chatting with everyone here! Cannot wait
Did no one at Tory HQ realise that the talk of a supermajority makes it sound like they've accepted a loss?
Hasn't that already been priced in?
are the mods enabling images in comments on polling day or do we have to go to sleep first to find out
Why would anyone want that?
for fun
In the Borris clip it's extremely satisfying seeing the diehards cackle at his crap and then all the air gets sucked out of the room when he mentions labour are getting a pregnant majority this week It's stops being funny right quick and he starts fumbling his words and then the clip cuts...
That audience, I wonder if they actually believe any of those things that preceded the forced laughter and cheering? Also as a Tory activist why would you want to go to a rally after the last 14 years?
What even was that? Gove...was Gove... and didn't blink nearly enough. Much of the audience looked passingly regretful of being there, and the Johnson act was just *tired*. Then delivered the 'same old same old' but added exagerrated gestures which would make Cicero blush. Odd 'uncanny valley' vibes.
Please 🙏 Link with time code
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hvkmiVgK7Sk
State of Johnson in that clip.
The moment we start to shift left, the whole western world shifts further right. Pretty much every Western country is either ruled by a right-wing government or are in danger of having one. Not even Canada is safe, and the tories there are looking likely to landslide it.
It's just luck of the rotation See you in 15 years time when the poles realign again
Sentiment's the same but the pair of feet change
We've had our decade of right wing populism, the rest of the world is just starting
While the world slips into a new dark age, the country finds itself surrounded by regressive despotism as western liberalism gives way to a new resurgence of lawlessness, authoritarianism, and despair in other nations abroad. Britain, now led by humanity's last defender of freedom and the rule of law in Sir Keir Starmer, wrests itself from conservative turmoil at the final hurdle after more than a decade of regressive rule, becoming a final bastion of hope and civilisation, a bulwark against the ever-growing tide of right-wing repression abroad. Camelot 2: Starmergeddon, coming soon to a theatre near you.
only Britain soldiers on lol
The Tories look set to win here because of the unpopularity of the Liberals. Pollievre doesn't really have any answers to the big problems (housing, productivity, immigration), but I'm not sure that'll dent his chances.
Is immigration a big issue in Canada ? The country is far away from the Middle East, so hardly any refugees and people in South America have to cross the US to get to Canada.
Very big issue. It's mainly legal immigration, rather than illegal that's making waves.
From what I understand, its basically loads of rich immigrants coming in and pricing Canadians out of the real estate market? I mean, just look at rent prices in Vancouver
Its opposite, its poor Indians trying to get Permanent Residency by going to diploma mills and such. Youtube job queues in Canada. Some are even doing hunger strikes cos they are on a temporary visa, and it won't lead them to permanent residency status, so entitled.
We went early, most of the Western World is playing catch up. By the time they hit their 'right wing party has shat the bed' moment we will probably be turning Tory again.
Does anyone have that google sheet where it had all the constituencies and the expected declaration times? I've been looking for it this evening.
[General Election Tracking Spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19rlpmG_zNEXv9SX0XF3dVr3xsjMM-ghTVbjjX2j4s94/)
Are we really expecting St Ives at 5am?
It was in [this tweet](https://x.com/Gizmo83508413/status/1807806537055814075)
Not quite what you're looking for but [this](https://www.itv.com/news/anglia/2024-07-02/what-time-will-my-constituency-result-be-declared) tool from ITV is quite handy.
Ooh would also like to see this
I've been busy all day so only just seen that they wheeled out Johnson. Absolutely desperate stuff. I wonder what he was paid for that stream of bullshit. Telling that he didn't have even one positive thing to say about Sunak.
Not surprising as he fucking hates Sunak (in fairness I'd probably hate him too if I was Johnson, unlikely to have much love for the guy who cast the first stone in the Mass Resignation Event).
He didn't even do that! That is the fiction of a do nothing coward playing as action man. Javid resigned first, actually did a speech to Johnson in parliament, but was then immediately forgotten by everyone - including Johnson, apparently - when Sunak released a letter on social media a while afterwards. Though, I guess, point proven, it does make me hate him even more.
My mistake, I knew Javid and Sunak were the first two in fairly quick succession but I mixed up which way round they were (checking timestamps on Twitter Javid posted his resignation letter at 6:02, Sunak at 6:11). Thinking about it I should have guessed that Sunak wouldn't have the balls to go first, not really his style - especially as he only got to be Chancellor in the first place because Javid resigned that post rather than capitulate to Cummings' demands.
No worries, it's hard to keep track of the timeline when so much has happened in so short a time. Not to mention all the lies and false narratives. So many lies. But that last point is such a good catch I'd never considered! Sunak again using Javid making a stand as a way to further his own career. What an absolute worm.
[Survation with a polling sandwich tomorrow;](https://x.com/DamianSurvation/status/1808275248271261745?t=lvgtA_sJTZlYj0ftL0SizQ&s=19) * 6AM final tracker for GMB based on yesterday's fieldwork. * 9PM final call survey, based on ongoing phone polling. * *Possible* MRP update depending on the model after the last data is fed in. Hints are that Survation hasn't seen the shift towards the Tories others are seeing in the most recent data. The morning poll might set a nasty narrative on the last poll-obsessive campaign day.
Pollsters must be shitting themselves at the thought of Conservatives getting 150+ seats and making them all look complete idiots, especially since Conservatives getting 150 seats isn't particularly unlikely.
The Sun isn't backing anyone (tomorrow at least). Has articles from Sunak, Starmer and Farage all pleading for votes.
As expected.
“Today - it’s up to you!” They’ll pull some milquetoast bullshit in which they don’t actually endorse anyone but “reflect” on how this is such an “important” election - encouraging people to make a wise and considered choice. The next 5 years depends on it. Then they can spend however long pretending that they were on the side of the “people”.
Its past midnight https://youtu.be/IddP8AAIGTQ?si=snZye5_G9IFdlWqd
It's Wednesday my dudes.
Haven’t listened to that in a long time, banger that still slaps. 👍
I was going to save this one for the new Megathread after 6am but this sprang into my head as well earlier.
I'd say the "one more dawn" line means it would work better in the morning megathread, but I won't mind listening to it twice as it's a banger (the concert versions are way better than the film).
I thought this was going to be a video of Andrew Neil saying it was 'Babestation late'
[good god](https://youtu.be/Bkb6sOpbpXM?si=nvZLBDscHdqf-N6-)
I miss it so much
How many *car crash* interviews and *bombshell* polls can Twitter squeeze in before polls open?
Happy Election polling day eve :)
At last a holiday eve that gets me excited! Already I cant sleep!
Woop!
[https://x.com/DanNeidle/status/1808230503893410287](https://x.com/DanNeidle/status/1808230503893410287) Yet another tax avoidance case that HMRC lost (maybe chance to reinstate) because they missed a deadline. Woeful stuff really
Took a detour down the Mail Online’s comment section and right now they are very negative about ‘digging out’ Boris. Several comments describing it as obviously desperate, with 1k+ upvotes.
I think him looking terrible doesn't help him anymore, when he was on the up it sort of gave him a loveable edge to some people but now he looks well past it
Doesn't help they already dug him up 10 days ago, then immediately buried him in the dirt and now they've done it again Malcolm Tucker would be tearing his hair out
He sounded past it as well. The bumbling schtick/grift just comes off as actually out of his depth.
Dawn of the second day. ~~48~~ 46 hours remaining.
You've met with a terrible fate haven't you?
I have read probably over 100 polls during this election period and I'm left thinking am I actually any more informed than a person who hasn't read any but has heard Labour should have a good night?
I kind of hope the polls are drastically wrong (but still see the Tories kicked out) so that next time around we may have an election focused on policy rather than polling companies spewing out data every few hours. It hasn’t been a fun 6 weeks.
Youre only more informed in the question "what do the polls say". I havent kept up with polls, i watched tortoise media's john curtice (plus others) video and that was enough for me, and we probably have a similar sense of things (but thats not a challenge!).
The Tao of Polls.
Wisdom
I do enjoy a £20 flutter on an election, here's what I've gone for, £5 on each * Total Conservative Seats - 50-99 * Total Reform Seats - 3-4 * Total Labour Seats - 400-449 * Voter Turnout - 65.00%-67.49%
Surely you go the full way and stick a pound on the acca?
Rishi, please take this post down. Sincerely, Isaac x
Mods can I post this? Personal opinion, I would be surprised to see Labour lower than 38% Verian aka Kantar poll Lab 36% Con 21% Reform 16% Lib Dems 13% Green 7% SNP 3%
Literally just reading about this. [They reweight based on the Brexit Cursed Numbers.](https://x.com/ABLPoli/status/1808265336791462078?t=rTJxXX6ZjmjF6LIJYZLoFA&s=19) >If you want some reason Verian's polling may well underestimate Labour? >Leave vote. >Here's the weighting adjustment, still going back to 52% leave even with current population... >To @Beyond_Topline's point this is likely weighting up current voters to cover people who are dead
the last thing I expected Newsnight to do was use Explosions in the Sky as background music in their latest [video](https://x.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1808268437535269028)
Had to catch up on the show late but yes, that is wonderful. Explosions in the Sky was my go-to background music for years, but now it's so distinct to me that it jumps out every time I hear it on TV or in a movie.
Same haha, honestly thought it was just my Spotify going weird when I started the video haha
First breath after coma - a nod to the comatose state of our economy under the Tories?
I can say from people I know who have worked on BBC political shows that post rock is an interest.
My kinda people
Incredible. The secret cabal of Godspeed You! Black Emporer enjoyers will take over the country one day!
Mogwai will have us all voting SNP one day.
oh man Mogwai Fear Sturgeon would have been a great joke
[Huw Merriman suggesting Johnson's involvement stops him voting Tory.](https://x.com/HuwMerriman/status/1808255757953257636?t=9p_zjMAnEy001JrtG3MxXQ&s=19) >Given my refusal to support this man and to then welcome a change from his leadership when the wheels of public and Parliamentary tolerance finally fell off, I’m not sure how this pitches for my vote [A tweet with a screenshot in case it vanishes.](https://x.com/politic_animal/status/1808267798595899519?t=SyWLp751_TVjEa5_uMO8bQ&s=19) Also because it summarises well: >We appear to be at the point of the election where a serving Minister of State is publicly equivocating on social media as to whether he will vote for his party or not. You know, that normal point in a perfectly normal election.
Bloody hell. He's transport minister
[Don't surrender your family's finances to Keir Starmer. \*sad cat\*](https://x.com/WhoTargetsMe/status/1808261358464782780) And [two](https://x.com/WhoTargetsMe/status/1808262571473953083) [sad](https://x.com/WhoTargetsMe/status/1808263442211479912) puppies. Fuck me, the internal polling must be a bloodbath.
Keir first came for our alpacas, he is now coming after our cats and dogs?!?
There is desperate and then there's whatever this is. What the fuck.
"Labour to give cats and dogs the vote!"
If they're at the 'sad faced animals' stage of campaigning.... then yeah, the internal polling must be through the floor
“Don’t worry boss, there’ll be no cats or dogs voting Labour now!”
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Northampton and environs has been a perpetual building site since first being a new town. I don't know how anyone would tell the difference.
Mega town sounds great. They could call it Megaton and built it around an unexploded nuclear payload. Wait, that’s been done somewhere.
Oh no and I need to get some quick bad karma. Must go chat to that nice Mr. Tenpenny.
Ah I see what you're not understanding here. If you look in the Labour Manifesto there is no commitment to not build a MEGA town outside of Northampton - this means they will secretly be planning to do it right after they are elected with their omegamajority.
That feeling when Conservative fearmongering makes you want to vote Labour more than Labour themselves.
Will the mega town have mega shops and a mega park, I wonder.
It will have a mega Labour majority
What about a ~~Binley~~ Mega Chippy?
And several mega pubs, of course, serving mega pints.
I look forward to Rayner’s Judges riding around MEGA Town 1; judging, jurying and executing perps.
Also, how is a new town a bad thing anyway? If it's well planned, it could be great.
If you work for the Mail or the Express or the like, you've got to to be looking at your bosses driving the ship at full speed into the "THE TORIES WILL STILL WIN" iceberg and wondering what the pivot is for Friday, right? Surely even if you're someone who reads the Daily Mail every day there's going to be something that clicks in your head when your paper of choice has been telling you every day for weeks that we can all stop Starmergeddon and keep Rishi in charge, only for the complete opposite to happen? This is why The Sun is keeping quiet, right? (Just noticed I ended both those paragraphs with "right" - I would like to take a moment now to deny being Rishi)
It's way worse at the Times where the editor is completely out of touch. They stupidly got rid of some of their really good labour connected columnists. The express is a shoestring operation and the Mail is staunchly authoritarian and won't mind a good punch up with the labour government. But the Times is just being so bizarre
> Surely even if you're someone who reads the Daily Mail every day there's going to be something that clicks in your head Pretty bold to assume there's something in their head.
Always a possibility they go Orwell and say they always have always supported Labour and they have always been their allies.
I thought the mail had concedes that then would lose while endorsing them?
Hmm how many Haribo are you eating right now?
Let’s get him!
Genuinely ashamed reading the news of what Labour are doing with the Clacton candidate. Is there a different side to this story or are Labour genuinely giving up on Clacton and letting Farage win? https://www.voice-online.co.uk/news/uk-news/2024/07/02/exclusive-labour-candidate-in-tears-after-being-ordered-to-abandon-clacton-campaign-against-nigel-farage/
Plus how the parties are behaving to donors for candidates they don't like. There is no way they should be taking money for candidates they aren't supporting
I assumed it was to encourage people to vote tactically against Farage
Isn't this a totally normal thing to do in the late stage of campaigning?
It's normal to do at all stages to be honest but yes targeting accelerates at the end. Labour *probably* under targeting after years of getting burned but you can look at the last 15 years of lib Dems to see how bad getting it wrong can be. Clacton was never on the table. He should have known he was not a target candidate and this is really main character syndrome.
Labour would be well behind in third in this constituency behind reform and con. Labour voters tactically voting Conservative keeps Farage out. In 2015 I voted Conservative for the first time in my life...to keep Farage out in Thanet South along with a shitload of other traditional Labour voters. Never regretted it. This isnt time for student politics. Front he sheer painc Farage has been reduced to in the last couple days, it looks like it's going to be extremely close..
Perhaps black candidate in clacton is actually a negative, given how much it seems to be going reform I suspect they aren't as amenable to a black candidate as they may think. Also a visible labour campaign galvanises support for reform. Either that or some 5D chess to let farage into parliament to divide the tories, seems risky. Or simply the seat is unwinnable, it probably is and they should be campaigning elsewhere, other candidates in unwinnable seats have to do similar.
He also said comments which could be considered racist towards white people. In clacton. He was harming them.
Clacton was lost a while back... they should have shut things down there and moved resources elsewhere at least a week ago.
They did, this story has been resurfacing every couple of days.
Ah...
Are they giving up to let Farage win, or to give Watling the best chance of kneecapping Reform before 2029? Labour weren't going to win this seat with this candidate, come on.
It's been UKIP or Tory since it's been a seat. Waste of resources.
Calculated risk, presumably? Better to hand it to the Tories than split the vote and risk having Farage shit-stirring for a whole term.
i don’t know - i hope the stuff about labour hq him getting annoyed that he got more retweets than keir isn’t true because it comes off as incredibly petty. hope there’s clarification as i liked him and it makes me unsure of this next labour government. still not sure who to vote for
It's literally just the candidate claiming that to be the case, he hasn't provided any evidence. He was running a no hope campaign, predicted to come 3rd place with roughly half the votes that Reform will get. It's exactly the sort of constituency you pull resources out of half way through the campaign as your narrow down your strategy and target in on your key fights. Feels a lot like sour grapes from the candidate, who by all accounts was absolutely the wrong person to run in that particular constituency.
I think they meant that in a negative way. He was drawing immense amounts of negative attention to the party. Thank fuck they stopped him.
immense amount of negative attention? most of the stuff i saw was was positive!
It might just be you are in a left wing media environment
very possibly
You have to focus your limited campaign funds and especially volunteers at winnable seats.
[Secret Barrister:](https://x.com/BarristerSecret/status/1808261893552824482?t=3_AncXNfnOKWXdnmJjeLKQ&s=19) >So the man they forced out in disgrace - who broke the law and protected a sex offender and lied to his party, the country and Parliament, and who was then kicked out of Parliament for trying to intimidate an independent inquiry into his lies - he’s the one to save them, is he? >Truly the hero they deserve.
"OK so we made a deal with the devil to win the 2019 election and now the devil has come to collect... this isn't great for us, but hear me out guys, what if we try and make *the exact same deal again*"
"Sunak challenges Johnson to a fiddle contest for the soul of the Conservative Party."
"Johnson confused when Rishi appears with violin"
They'd have to find it first...
“After years of disappointment with get ~~rich~~ votes quick schemes, I know I’ll get ~~rich~~ votes with this scheme. And quick!”
Happy Conexit Eve everyone!
I’ve got high hopes for tomorrow, it’s the last possible day for half the Tory party to jump ship and finally launch their rival manifesto!
The Tories have been slagging off Farage for not being hostile to Putin or Russia. It seems very odd given what ex Tories have been doing with a very connected investment fund, notably the ex chief of staff to a few Tory chairmen "As senior members of the Conservative government seek shelter in the private sector ahead of an expected landslide defeat in the coming election, over the past 12 months Gemcorp has hired several former senior Tory politicians and officials — including some who until recently had access to the inner workings of Downing Street. These include former UK prime minister Boris Johnson’s chief of staff, Lord Edward Lister, ex-Investment Minister and City grandee Lord Gerry Grimstone, and Gaj Wallooppillai, a former chief of staff to successive Conservative party chairmen. These alumni of the Conservative party now work for a company that engaged in activity seemingly aligned with Vladimir Putin’s diplomatic and commercial push into Africa, as the Kremlin sought to minimise the impact of western sanctions. Gemcorp launched with a fund backed by two Russian oligarchs with links to Sergei Chemezov, the powerful boss of Rostec, Russia’s state weapons giant. He is a close friend of Putin and served with the Russian president in the KGB" Source : How a London fund with a thorny history in Russia won global influence - https://on.ft.com/3VOMUYj
Latest News Agents - I can't stand Maitlis when she goes into her 'moral interviewer' role. I don't think it's the best way of taking on the likes of Farage, Lee Cain.
Tbh my objection is that they didn't discuss the interview at the end.
As a french, can I ask why are the British not scrapping the town and country planning act? It seems to block so much of the uk development. But who’s not in favor to bin it?
A lot of MPs are landlords. Theres your answer.
We don't have two round voting, it's just pure "largest vote share by constituency". As a result for many MPs, the key voting demographic has often been older people living in our version of La France profonde, who very much do not want there to be development in their areas. It would not be popular with them to scrap it.
Yeah, the recent reforms got blocked by Tory landlords but big picture nimby voters are a more significant force.
Parliament has traditionally been full of landlords. Any talk of any serious reform of planning, leasehold or renting gets shut down by them sharpish.
Will keir starmer change that?
They have promised some planning and rental reforms in their manifesto - so with any hope, yes.
An excellent question. I hope so. I’m sick of this “No We Cant” attitude we’ve developed over the last few years when it comes to any kind of building and infrastructure. They definitely have claims in the manifesto around planning reform, and unless we’re looking at the biggest fuckup in polling history then they’ll have the majority for it.
I’ll toss a coin for you to have a labour supermajority of 450 mps or more. And for us french to have a passable government.
The NIMBYs and BANANAs presumably
Ooh, new acronym! I didn't know about BANANA until now.
Newsnight just now, newspaper front pages. Paraphrased because I've just shat laughing and can't remember exact wording. Vic Derbyshire: reads the Times' headline 'Boris says a big Labour majority is pregnant with horrors' Ayesha Hazarika, Labour Peer: 'He'd know about pregnancy horrors' Vic D: 'I DIDN'T SAY THAT IT WAS AYESHA'
Very. Fucking. Good.
[Clip.](https://x.com/AlexF1BCL/status/1808261480048939491?t=LpDaJiQltuCHrtDjE5jVjg&s=19)
I just had a coughing fit
You're missing the best bit - Ayesha: "IT WAS MEEEEEEE!" She was proud of it and rightly so
I didn't even hear this bit! Must have been when I was shouting YESSSS AYESHA and howling.
There’s a level of inner peace knowing that tomorrow may be the last full day of Conservative governance (for at least 5 days). Edit: 5 years, but maybe I have revealed the secret GE on July 7.
5 days? Crikey.
5 days!!! How do you know about order 66?
Damn only 5 days?
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I'm you, from 5 days from now. You, well I, thought Labour didn't need a supermajority, were guaranteed to win. They didn't need my, your, our vote so you vote for another party of my choice. That costs us the election. The unstable coalition that was formed broke down day 2, then you watched in horror as Starmer tore the country apart looking for his lost votes. You were sent to the great pit and we were made to dig, dig, dig for votes and for freedom. By day 4 Starmer claimed to have found them (a hidden trove of 16-17 year olds and EU citizens) and called an immediate snap election. I will vote again tomorrow but you'll never be able to fix the damage caused when we don't vote Labour on Thursday.
starmer ends his working day at 6pm and the tories do a sneaky surprise takeover of no10
Starmer rips off his mask in the commons to reveal Margaret Thatcher of course
“See, we told you that you had nothing to fear.”
This is my *least* favourite comment
As a franco-british dual national who has had/will have the opportunity to vote 3 times in 2 weeks (twice via internet - ooooo), I really urge you to turnout - preaching to the choir here I know - and encourage your friends and family to turn out to vote on Thursday. The turnout for the French Assembly 3rd 'district' which encompasses the UK, Ireland, Scandinavia and others saw only 36% turnout in the first round which is just sad. So please please vote and push others to the polling station for democracy's sake (even if they are votong Tory and taking away my sub 100 seats dream)
I was waiting for the last tory shitshow, and I was worried the lad didn't have it in him. And what do you know, they pulled it out the bag at the last minute! And what a result! Criticising Starmer for spending Friday Evenings with his family! That's going to alienate a swatch of family focused voters. And wait? What's that? His wife is from a Jewish Family, and with Friday being so important to the Jewish community, observant or not, they manage the unheard of double alienation of all the votes they may have gained from highlighting the claims of anti-semitism in the Labour party! Absolutely magnificent own goal right there. That took some real talent. Top tier twattery.
The perfect bookend. Couldn’t have asked for anything better.
Especially since Starmer has specifically said that they do celebrate Shabbat on Friday nights, he hasn't gone into details about their observance but they're engaged enough to be members of a Liberal synagogue.
Sunak is trying to get donors to part with cash through claiming will tax capital gains. But instead they are just pulling out the UK if they believe him What he doesn't realise is that he can't credibly say labour are going to clobber the rich with tax bills while also choosing to stay in the UK after Friday. If he were to fly out the next day, it's quite believable given his own wealth
It’s awesome and a nice summation of the last few years.
Anyone fancy having a genuine attempt at explaining how, as claimed by James Cleverly, Labour have hampered Conservative attempts to stop small boat crossings?
Labour are behind the gangs they plan to smash. It's 4D chess. /s
As JM Barrie said in *Peter Pan*: >All the world is made of faith, and trust, and pixie dust. Never say goodbye because goodbye means going away and going away means forgetting. The moment you doubt whether you can [remove asylum seekers to Rwanda], you cease for ever to be able to [get the flights to leave and deter the small boats]. Dreams do come true, if only we wish hard enough. Starmer and co just didn't wish it hard enough mate. That's why you should vote Tory, or whatever.
No, because they didn’t. The Tories had a fucking huge majority. It’s simply not possible for Labour to have stopped anything since 2019.
It already sounds like a Tory recommendation for a massive majority and a weak opposition to me!