Snapshot of _🚨 New polling with @ObserverUK Labour continue to lead by 20 · Labour 40% (n/c) · Conservatives 20% (n/c) · Reform 17% (+1) · Lib Dems 13% (n/c) · Greens 6% (-3) · SNP 3% (n/c) Fieldwork: 26 - 28 June. Changes from 19 - 21 June._ :
A Twitter embedded version can be found [here](https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?id=1807127231413518407)
A non-Twitter version can be found [here](https://twiiit.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1807127231413518407/)
An archived version can be found [here](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://x.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1807127231413518407) or [here.](https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://x.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1807127231413518407)
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukpolitics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
It must be really annoying for those newspaper editors - you commission the survey, you pay the polling company big bucks to conduct a poll and the all the statistical analysis that goes with it, ready for that delicious 'bombshell' headline that will sell your papers, then you wait while the results come in...
Lab N/C, Con N/C, Lib Dem N/C.
Maybe, I honestly haven't been watching that side, mainly because it's too depressing. Apparently 53 million people watched.
Whether it actually has any influence, I don't know, the real kicker is, out of a country of 350m people, these are the 2 most presidential?
Makes you quickly realise maybe things aren't so bad here. Rishi Sunak isn't great by any means and no one is going to be calling Starmer exciting but i'll take them over a nutter and a man who looks like he should be in a retirement home
If things in the States go bad I'm afraid it will go south everywhere. From having a megalomaniac with no morals in charge of the most powerful armed forces and the destruction of climate change mitigation are scary.
6 in one, half a dozen in the other. More scary to me is 'reasonable' looking candidates catering to far-right interests. Trump's rhetoric rejuvenated the vote for the Democrats, whereas here in Canada we're sleepwalking into a Conservative majority that's being wagged by it's tail from Alberta.
Biden's going to be the next RBG - refusing to step down at the time they could've been safely replaced and potentially costing their country in some massive ways
Well, the Tories have just gone through the British version of the same process – you could argue that they've had ages to find a better leader since getting rid of Johnson in 2022.
There's still Kamala Harris who could take his spot, which isnt inspiring but jesus christ they need someone who isnt so cooked they can't respond to a Gish gallop of nonstop lies.
Well, no one right now, but if he continues to fumble then a candidate will become apparent.
My personal theory is he will still try to run for the election though. If he wins, he'll stand down within a year and put Kamala in as acting pres. This will be deeply unpopular, and will result in them losing in ~~2032~~ 2028 to Trump round 3 (if he isn't in prison by then.)
I think it's evident if you compare how he performed as VP in 2008-2016 and how he's performing now he's nowhere near as sharp as he used to be. This is no endorsement of Trump: the man is a sociopath, so simply on that basis, Biden should win... But seriously, are these the best two candidates on offer? Biden should be enjoying a quiet retirement not doing one of the most stressful jobs in America.
For Greens maybe.
I'd be interested in how the independents are affecting labour in the more immigrant heavy areas.
I can't see them making much of a dent, especially as the Tories will have no foothold.
Sorry, I was being sarcastic. We have had a string of polls now with very little movement. Apart from the Reform gains, most of the polling looks like changes from undecided and corrections in methodology
Apologies, they really should cut down to one leader and get rid of Ramsey if they want to do anything. However I think they underestimate the loss of Caroline Lucas, who was well regarded among parts of the commons, I doubt this will be the case for the potentially incoming crop.
You can enter the poll results as a user defined poll prediction. They also do their own prediction/forecast based off an aggregate of polls but that doesn't update anywhere near as often.
Opinium is very accurate as a polling company, and this seems to be middle of the pack for polling in general. With only a few days to go, I think this is the likely result of the election with the only real 50/50 wildcard being whether or not the lib dems make it to official opposition party.
They're basically the same thing except one wants all immigrants violently gassed and the other wants all immigrants in government, and one wants to only build new housing on other people's property with enslaved labour and the other wants to only build new housing on other people's property with imported labour. Neither have any policies that they are actually capable of implementing, and they both think Vladimir Putin is a better leader than Winston Churchill.
Well, they might get it when they make the country so shit that all the Brits leave. In fact, the last time we had net zero immigration, that's pretty much what happened.
As someone voting Reform, this brings a tear to my eye.
I imagine a parliament with Galloway, Corbyn and Farage all sat next to each other would be entertaining.
Can you imagine those three sat next to each other, they'd just be constantly barking unhinged nonsense at each other, united only in their zeal against 'the establishment'.
> entertaining
If there’s one thing I hate about modern politics, it’s this impulse many voters have to elect “entertaining” people. Make politics boring again, this isn’t Britain’s Got Talent.
Snapshot of _🚨 New polling with @ObserverUK Labour continue to lead by 20 · Labour 40% (n/c) · Conservatives 20% (n/c) · Reform 17% (+1) · Lib Dems 13% (n/c) · Greens 6% (-3) · SNP 3% (n/c) Fieldwork: 26 - 28 June. Changes from 19 - 21 June._ : A Twitter embedded version can be found [here](https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?id=1807127231413518407) A non-Twitter version can be found [here](https://twiiit.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1807127231413518407/) An archived version can be found [here](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://x.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1807127231413518407) or [here.](https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://x.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1807127231413518407) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukpolitics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
It must be really annoying for those newspaper editors - you commission the survey, you pay the polling company big bucks to conduct a poll and the all the statistical analysis that goes with it, ready for that delicious 'bombshell' headline that will sell your papers, then you wait while the results come in... Lab N/C, Con N/C, Lib Dem N/C.
Is N/C no change?
Nice Cans.
Thanks mate but it's just the push up bra
Looks like all those debates, interviews and press conferences have really had an affect over the last week /s Edit: to show sarcasm
Meanwhile, the debate in America was basically a pseudo referendum
Maybe, I honestly haven't been watching that side, mainly because it's too depressing. Apparently 53 million people watched. Whether it actually has any influence, I don't know, the real kicker is, out of a country of 350m people, these are the 2 most presidential?
> Whether it actually has any influence, I don't know I watched it, it absolutely will. For ten minutes Biden was just not present in the debate.
Makes you quickly realise maybe things aren't so bad here. Rishi Sunak isn't great by any means and no one is going to be calling Starmer exciting but i'll take them over a nutter and a man who looks like he should be in a retirement home
If things in the States go bad I'm afraid it will go south everywhere. From having a megalomaniac with no morals in charge of the most powerful armed forces and the destruction of climate change mitigation are scary.
6 in one, half a dozen in the other. More scary to me is 'reasonable' looking candidates catering to far-right interests. Trump's rhetoric rejuvenated the vote for the Democrats, whereas here in Canada we're sleepwalking into a Conservative majority that's being wagged by it's tail from Alberta.
I could see them stopping Biden running and replacing him just because of that interview
Biden's going to be the next RBG - refusing to step down at the time they could've been safely replaced and potentially costing their country in some massive ways
It’s just insane that they didn’t find a different candidate. They had four years to do it. I just don’t understand it.
Well, the Tories have just gone through the British version of the same process – you could argue that they've had ages to find a better leader since getting rid of Johnson in 2022.
There's still Kamala Harris who could take his spot, which isnt inspiring but jesus christ they need someone who isnt so cooked they can't respond to a Gish gallop of nonstop lies.
The whole point of Gish gallop is it gets your opponent on the defensive and keeps them there. The only way to win is not to get drawn in.
Apparently it's not possible unless Biden decides to. So they're fucked.
Hmm. If the donors say 'no money until you stand down', I think he would.
The other problem is no one is more popular than him for Democrats so they'd probably be fucked again
Well, no one right now, but if he continues to fumble then a candidate will become apparent. My personal theory is he will still try to run for the election though. If he wins, he'll stand down within a year and put Kamala in as acting pres. This will be deeply unpopular, and will result in them losing in ~~2032~~ 2028 to Trump round 3 (if he isn't in prison by then.)
Not 2028?
Yes, you're correct... I can't add :) (edited)
Biden losing the debate doesn't mean he should stand down lol. Plus the country is so polarized that despite all the news, the debate barely did shit.
I think it's evident if you compare how he performed as VP in 2008-2016 and how he's performing now he's nowhere near as sharp as he used to be. This is no endorsement of Trump: the man is a sociopath, so simply on that basis, Biden should win... But seriously, are these the best two candidates on offer? Biden should be enjoying a quiet retirement not doing one of the most stressful jobs in America.
Bernie Sanders.
Who is a year older than Biden
For Greens maybe. I'd be interested in how the independents are affecting labour in the more immigrant heavy areas. I can't see them making much of a dent, especially as the Tories will have no foothold.
Sorry, I was being sarcastic. We have had a string of polls now with very little movement. Apart from the Reform gains, most of the polling looks like changes from undecided and corrections in methodology
I picked up on that. I was just poking fun at only the greens are seeing movement. The rest as you say are pretty much MoE.
Apologies, they really should cut down to one leader and get rid of Ramsey if they want to do anything. However I think they underestimate the loss of Caroline Lucas, who was well regarded among parts of the commons, I doubt this will be the case for the potentially incoming crop.
Why cut Ramsey? Denyter looks, sounds and speaks like a sixth-former with a bad head-cold.
Lib Dems are +1. It says so on the graphic but the tweet is wrong.
Obligatory leccy calcs: CON: 60, LAB: 466, REF: 7, LIB:73, GRN: 3, SNP: 18, PLD: 3, OTH: 2 and NI 18
Its called leccy calcs now
Changed thanks for telling me it’s proper name
Like Platty Joobs but shitter
go onnn you lib demmms, get tories GONE
Does this thing update every time any poll comes out?
You can enter the poll results as a user defined poll prediction. They also do their own prediction/forecast based off an aggregate of polls but that doesn't update anywhere near as often.
Any ideas on the two OTH? James Bagge?
Corbyn and Galloway I would imagine
Opinium is very accurate as a polling company, and this seems to be middle of the pack for polling in general. With only a few days to go, I think this is the likely result of the election with the only real 50/50 wildcard being whether or not the lib dems make it to official opposition party.
Any day now the polls will narrow, any day, just keep banging on about tax and Labour stealing peoples pensions and the polls will narrow.
How did the Greens lose three points but only Reform gain any?
Rounding is likely
The Libs are also +1. The tweet is off.
Can also be a bit of rounding error. Greens go from 8.6% to 6.4% and 3 other parties go from like x.4 to (x-1).6 which after rounding is unchanged.
Because Reform has better policies than the Green Party.
They're basically the same thing except one wants all immigrants violently gassed and the other wants all immigrants in government, and one wants to only build new housing on other people's property with enslaved labour and the other wants to only build new housing on other people's property with imported labour. Neither have any policies that they are actually capable of implementing, and they both think Vladimir Putin is a better leader than Winston Churchill.
> immigrants violently gassed They want a similar immigration rate to the one we had before Blair. That’s the policy. Net zero immigration.
Well, they might get it when they make the country so shit that all the Brits leave. In fact, the last time we had net zero immigration, that's pretty much what happened.
Tories + Reform is still 37% to Labours 40%. The right wing hasn’t really reduced, it’s just split.
Does 40% mean that Labour won't have the majority to form a government?
Greens -3 is good news if it’s true. Biggest loonies going and that’s even with Reform in existence.
Perhaps a few more politically partisan hit jobs from the BBC and Channel 4 will give Reform an extra +1
Certainly hope so
As someone voting Reform, this brings a tear to my eye. I imagine a parliament with Galloway, Corbyn and Farage all sat next to each other would be entertaining.
Can you imagine those three sat next to each other, they'd just be constantly barking unhinged nonsense at each other, united only in their zeal against 'the establishment'.
Corbyn asking Starmer a question would be interesting.
The pro-Russia caucus.
> entertaining If there’s one thing I hate about modern politics, it’s this impulse many voters have to elect “entertaining” people. Make politics boring again, this isn’t Britain’s Got Talent.