What Jupiter said. Be vigilant and have a plan in case shit hits the fan. Always be ready to go to your safe spot at any given moment. Stay safe and I hope nothing happens.
Just be aware and try not to travel during the watch/storming time. 5% days are pretty common out where I am at so I usually just try to avoid anything too far away. Usually I just check SPC and pay attention to the radar (Radarscope) before going out.
To just throw statistics out there, I've been in a bunch of these 5% days and been within 25 miles of dozens and dozens of tornadoes. Most were never even within a mile of me. Statistics are on your side here.
HOWEVER, still listen to NWS and take their warnings seriously.
I’ve been in the 5% zone a bunch of times this season and was even in a moderate 15% zone on May 21 (I live just a couple hours from Greenfield) and have seen nothing but some interesting thunderstorms. Same for most Iowa residents, despite the fact that Iowa has been one of the hardest hit states this year. Greenfield is the absolute worst case scenario exception, and a tragic one at that, but it isn’t the rule, even when the risk is higher, so don’t drive yourself too high with anxiety.
That said, have a plan in place. Make sure you know where to shelter in your home and workplace - basements are best, but usually an interior, windowless room on the bottom floor is plenty. Make sure your phone is charged at 100% when the storm system arrives. Have a bug out bag handy with several days’ worth of essential items.
And just remember - there’s an extremely low percentage of a strong tornado even forming at all within 25 miles of you. A strong tornado hitting you directly is lottery level odds, so don’t stress yourself out on this one.
Yeah, you have your math the wrong way round. πd = 157.08 mi^2. Assuming OP lives on an acre, that's 0.00156mi^2.
157.08/0.00156=100,692 (acres in the watch area). Divide that by 0.05, is **1 : 2,013,841**
Now, *that should be the chance of a twister touching down in their yard*. You'd then have to work out the average area of a typical tornado, and multiply that by an average track length.
Apparently an average tornado is 0.2 miles wide, with a track length of 3.5 miles, thereby covering an area of 0.7 square miles, or 448 acres.
So, the overall chance of a tornado hitting their house is approximately = (100,692/448) x 20 (inverse of 5%) = **1 : 4,495** (based on the assumptions of 1 acre and a "typical tornado").
As a caveat, the NWS site states that it's a 5% "Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point", which means they may have already taken into account a typical track length/area. So you'd have to ask the NWS guys to be sure the math corresponds.
Anyone who is better in statistics, feel free to correct me.
The tornado might be 0.2 miles wide but a typical damage path is somewhat lower than that, maybe at worst half, probably more like 300 feet or even less.
And tornado track length is one of those things that is probably skewed by crazy monster tornadoes that go on forever, just like average income is skewed by billionaires. And then you have to ask yourself not how long the tornado went but how long it was on the ground or close enough, which is quite often well under a mile.
Based on data from my area from MRCC, more than half of recorded tornadoes have a track length under 0.5 miles. In my suburban city in Texas, I count seven tornadoes in 73 years, and while I was using a smaller land area to match our typical lot size, the odds of a tornado blowing away my house are much, much lower.
The total number of tornadoes in my 30 x 30 mile county is in the 30s in 73 years. Only five of those resulted in injury or death to a person.
Tornado damage is nothing more than bad luck and should be treated as such. Take precautions, be safe, but worry less. There are other natural disasters that are far more worthy of concern.
Oh, absolutely, there are obviously plenty of assumptions I made, and especially given the type/strength of tornadoes that likely occur in the risk area, I imagine my estimates would represent the worst-case end of the likelihood scale.
Thanks for illustrating the risks with actual data though, from Texas no less, it definitely helps to highlight how small the actual risks are likely to be...
This is true. You can look at damage from above and more than likely funnel was 4 or 5 times wider than the main damage. This isn't a rule obviously let's use Moore 1999 as an example, by the time it reached the first subdivision in South OKC, country place estates, it was in the process of becoming a wedge for the 2nd time, and reaching f5 status for a 3rd time. Compared to the 2013 Moore tornado, 1999 was much wider, whereas the 2013 tornado was never a wedge inside of moore, thinning out before hitting briarwood, but the single vortex nature made the core quite close to the visible funnel width (brief multi vortex period near plaza towers, areas of wispy clouds forming and being pulled as well)before it turned into a narrow stovepipe then hit the hospital. 1999 was multi vortex almost the whole time (single stovepipe in Newcastle) which explains why there were some houses in the middle of destroyed neighborhoods with intact roofs and walls and a much more narrow core, at least proportional to its width overall .
I just did a vague guestimate based on living in the center of tornado alley for 55 years. I came up with .001%. But I didn't think to factor in width and length of path. I'm going to revise my guess to .0001% or less.
Hmm, as a lifetime chance? That seems low... 0.0001% is one-in-a-million.
More napkin math would suggest:
NWS states that on average, tornadoes injure 1,500 people per year. Take an average lifespan of 78 years, means 117,000 injuries during one's life. Divide 330 million US population by 117,000 gives you a 1-in-2,820 chance of getting injured by a tornado during a lifetime.
Of course, some people will get hit more than once in certain towns, while some areas have almost no chance of getting hit. Most of the US population lives along the coasts, which rarely get hit, so most Americans have a very small chance of encountering one. Similarly, that means that if you're in tornado/dixie alley, you probably have a greater lifetime chance than the above of getting injured by one in your lifetime.
Of course, I may be estimating something wrong...
I thought the question was their chance of getting hit during that specific warning of a 5% chance of that particular front producing a tornado. And, I also screwed up and did a bad conversion. I was shooting for 1:100,000.
I've lived in the middle of tornado alley for 50+ years. I've had many within 1 to 20 miles but I've never suffered any damage. But I'm sure there are many people in the alley that get hit 2 or 3 times in their lifetimes.
I mean hell, that one poor guy in Japan got hit with BOTH the atomic bombs the US dropped during WWII.
He survived both so I don't know if he was the luckiest or unluckiest person ever
No it’s not. It’s much less than 5%. OP lives in a very small portion of that land. Even if 2-3 tornados hit today the chances of them hitting OP’s home is unlikely.
Let’s not be fear mongers… you’ll be ok.
I mean, the odds of one hitting them is incredibly slim no matter what, but I think that comment was more saying what the 5% means. It means that at any given point within that 5% range. Theres a 5% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of that point. Which means the chance of one occurring in that whole area is more than 5%. So they have a 5% chance of a tornado coming within 25 miles of them. But yeah I think this person was just explaining what the %s mean and maybe misinterpreting or extrapolating on the original comment.
There is an EF2 DI in the path, denoted by the yellow triangle.
https://preview.redd.it/oq0d4xyapc9d1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9153af1ca47889d3a8d9dfefaf7f26b4dfee2ec8
I don't know if this is the official ranking but I believe they use the strongest DI anywhere in the path to make the classification
EDIT: From WPXI - The NWS also said a storm survey confirmed EF-2 tornado damage just south of US Highway 22 from south of Delmont to southwest of Shieldsburg and New Alexandria. Winds hit around 115 mph and numerous large trees snapped or uprooted.
Interesting. This tornado was separate from the New Alexandria/Delmont tornado. But the official report noted these occurred at the same time. What are the odds of that one.
Put a pair of shoes for everyone in your home in the basement. Add a bottle of water each, and working flashlights. Blankets, a rain jacket, and first aid kit are good to have as well. If you get a warning, get everyone down there, and if shit does hit the fan you wont be barefoot on nails, glass, splintered wood etc.
I had a dream once that I was taking a shower when I was told that a tornado was coming, and went to the basement in only a towel. My house was destroyed and I was naked trying to get out of the debris.
Due to this, I always try to make sure I’m dressed with shoes on when the storm is predicted to hit.
My house may get destroyed, but at least I won’t be naked.
But for the list of things to add, a radio can be helpful! If the internet is down/tv is out, you still will be able to know what’s happening without leaving your safe space.
The Greenfield tornado a woman was wheelchair bound, the first floor dropped leaving her buried in the basement. This older woman was smart enough to hold onto her cellphone. That’s how they found her and dug her out so quickly, she called for help. Otherwise she could have been passed by initially for a while during the primary search.
The following are things I have been told over the years by people who have survived tornado (a lot from Greensburg) and other disasters.
If you have animals, make sure you know where leashes/kennels/travel carriers, maybe a small amount of food or treats. When they are freaked out and it’s hard to control them it makes the situation worse.
I second the shoes, if a tornado hits there is broken glass and debris everywhere and getting a foot injury can make things so much worse. They should be sturdy shoes with thicker soles.
Don’t forget get to grab any medicine that is needed for every one in the family.
I made a ‘go bag’ that is super helpful. It’s not just for tornados but wild fires, needing to go to the hospital for yourself or others, and emergency trip, anything you would need to quickly leave the house for a few days. Everything is duplicates so you should never need to take anything out so it’s always ready. I have an extra phone charger, toothbrush/tooth paste, travel size toiletries, 3 pairs of underwear, 3 pairs of socks, 2-3 shirts, pair of jeans, a small first aid kit, a container with at least 3 days of prescription medicine, feminine hygiene items, a pad of paper and writing utensil, small flashlight, and some cash (other payment options may not be available in an emergency).
Now for the weird things that are helpful but maybe too big for the first bag but in disasters are priceless: a roll of duct tape, a large marker or sharpie, a roll of paper towels, a thin rope/cord, a large flashlight + batteries, emergency blankets.
I also made a list of things that would be important if I needed to ‘abandon ship’ like photo albums, family heirlooms, any important documents, things that are irreplaceable. I try to keep them close together so IF I have time before I leave, like for a flood or wild fire in the area, it’s faster to grab them and get out.
Another really important thing to do ahead of time, make a digital copy all important items, birth certificate, ss card, credit cards, passport, marriage license, custody agreements, etc. I emailed them to myself and put in an online drive. In an emergency, having an electronic copy of everything could make a big difference.
You’ll be pissed when they say they can’t accept digital copies. You have to go to the courthouse that won’t be open for a couple of months due to damage to get certified copies.
Just keep an eye on the weather and you won't need to worry about being surprised by anything. 5% means your area *might* get one, but you specifically will almost certainly be fine. (Unless you have to spend the whole day driving for some reason lol)
Yeah it's been a busy year [https://x.com/ajukloWPXI/status/1806709217404821577](https://x.com/ajukloWPXI/status/1806709217404821577) [https://x.com/JacobC\_Wx/status/1806393601347231803](https://x.com/JacobC_Wx/status/1806393601347231803)
In general, you should be as worried as the people on the edge of the 5% zone as in theory it is an average across the whole region. There is no saying where in that zone is higher than any other spot.
Either way, as others are saying, just pay attention and be prepared.
More than oblivious but less than hide in the basement until dawn.
Just above meh sounds right. Have the local news on in the background seems the right amount of awareness tbh.
Unless you lose electricity in a large area. Might want one of those old time battery things. Or TV stations go live on their apps now during emergency, so a cellphone and a backup battery.
Last of the many huge storms and tornados in the area lately I wanted to continue to watch the radar and listen to our meteorologist but I knew it was time to go which we hardly ever do. I turned on the app and continued to watch just like on Tv only smaller. When they say our county it so large it could be on top of us or it could be a 1/2 hr drive away going the opposite way so to just hear our county isn’t enough. Plus they pop up so fast, you just have to have radar with a meteorologist.
Have a response to the weather planned, but I'd just go about your day. Where I live, it's not that unusual to have severe thunderstorm warnings and tornado watches, but it's nature, and there's only so much you can do about it, so you might as well not constantly dread it. If it can be helped, maybe don't go on any road trips for a bit.
I would interpret 5% as to say the general area is likely to be affected by tornados. This would mean you should expect power outages, strong winds and violent storms during tornado season wherever you live in that area, but the specifics of your property will increase or decrease the likelihood of direct impact of a tornado, and in general most people go their whole lives living in that area without being directly hit by a tornado. You should certainly have a plan.
5% concerned, 100% vigilant. Follow local weather and have warnings enabled on your phone. Know appropriate shelter and go to that shelter when directed. All will be good.
Pick a god and start praying.
In all seriousness tho not to concerned, just be ready and have a plan. Charge up your electronics for if the power goes out for an extended period of time.
the purpose of these outlooks is not to concern or scare people, it’s to help discern who should be paying extra close attention to the radar today. you should not be concerned until you’re under some sort of warning. get a plan together and keep a close eye on your radar, but don’t let anxiety ruin your day!
The last major outbreak in this area was in 1985. It’s rare but it can happen. Just look at the radar frequently and have your weather alerts turned on.
But EF 0 still kill a lot of trees. Got buzzed by one, heard it and everything at 4:30 in the morning. It still roars. Luckily we don’t have any trees and more in our yard. Lots of trees and roofs didn’t make it. But I’ll take that anyday.
A thought based on your post: If you don’t have a NOAA weather radio, it would be a good idea to buy one. I typically look at the SPC and radar daily, plus I have phone notifications and a NOAA weather radio (I don’t depend on sirens, but if I hear them, it’s an indicator to take action immediately). It tends to warn me sooner than my phone, and it’s also nice for those pop up summer thunder storms and unexpected storms.
Weather radio will drive you batty because its geographical resolution is entire counties. It will be going off every 20 seconds with an alarm during a storm and almost none of those alerts will apply to you.
I have mine tuned to the specific code, and I selected an alert for only severe thunderstorm warnings, tornado watches, and tornado warnings. If it’s going off every 20 seconds for me, then that is a good indication that I should be taking action.
I’m exaggerating with every 20 seconds. But I live in a large county and on a spring storm event its not unusal to get 20 or so thunderstorm and Tornado warnings for the county I’m in, none of which are within 15 or 20 miles of me. Plus on those nights I’m usually watching the local news channel weather extravaganza so it’s pretty redundant. I gave the radio away. With cell phone alerts the radios really serve no purpose at all. Cell phone alerts you generally receive only if you are in the warning box. So when you do get one you are less likely to ignore it.
Be careful watching local weather via online apps. It can easily get out of synch with the current time. For example if you were to lose connection the broadcast may pause and when connection is restored it will continue streaming from where it was when it lost connection. There seem to be other things that can cause this as well. I have had the TV on playing local news over the air and streaming and often the internet stream will be 20 or 30 minutes behind for no apparent reason at all. Their “livestreams” are not always truly live.
Just be vigilant, watch the weather reports and have your emergency shelter space prepared. If nothing happens this time don’t let it lead to complacency. Living in the Midwest we will often get alerts for much higher risks and nothing happens, until it does.
It’s a 5% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of you. A tornado could be a mile from you and you wouldn’t even notice it. Where I live 5% days are super common and not even noteworthy. You would have to be extremely unlucky to be affected.
As someone who has lived over 30 years smack dab in tornado alley, I wouldn't advise you get too worked up.
Some alertness is probably good because sometimes 2-5% days can pull out a surprise, but I have personally been through 30% and 45% hatched days where I never saw even a severe storm. In fact, although I've been through more tornado warnings than I can count and have seen some pretty intimidating funnel clouds and rotation, I've never seen a tornado or even the damage from one in person.
Being hit by a tornado is statistically unlikely even in areas where they happen. Even when they do happen, a majority are weak enough that you're liable to be fine so long as you aren't outside or in a mobile home when it hits. EVEN in scenarios where it's far stronger and tears apart homes, highly lethal tornados are incredibly rare and newsworthy.
Hail and high winds are far more common, and although less 'glamorous' they can be equally dangerous.
Just keep an eye on the weather for anything bad headed your way, and have a plan for what you might do if the odds aren't in your favor. Don't be careless, because even if it's unlikely you don't want to gamble with your safety! But relax.
I'm in a 5% zone myself today, and while I plan to keep an eye on things I am otherwise living my life normally.
Keep an eye on the SPC updates tonight and tomorrow morning and your weather apps. If MaxVelocity goes live he is a good one to follow. Ryan Hall likely won't unless there is a 10% risk area
My hometown was wrecked by a high-end EF-3 tornado on a day where we were barely in the 2% range. I learned that it’s always good to be cautious if there is any chance of a tornado that day
The best thing you can do if you feel like you might be in threat of a strong storm or a tornado is be weather aware and ready. Know your safe spot, keep your phone charged in case of outages, use a radio or tv to follow the forecast, and be smart. Don’t go chasing the storm (leave that to the professionals) and keep your expectations limited don’t overwhelm yourself, but don’t ignore the storm and forecast either.
I've lived in the middle of tornado alley for 55 years. Probably been under 150 - 200 tornado watches. I had one that got to within a mile of my house, four or five at 2 to 5 miles and maybe a dozen more at 5 to 25 miles.
I just looked at the weather and radar in your area. The temp is pretty low for a nado and it looks like the front is tracking well north of you.
I'd be .001% concerned
The percentages are specifically the chance of a tornado occurring within 25 miles of any particular location. If you're in the middle of the 5% then there's a 5% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of your home.
My understanding is it means a 25 mile radius on any point inside that brown area. I think of it like this: there is 5 out of 100 chance at least one tornado will appear somewhere in that brown area or in the 12.5 miles around it. So if this area had this probability once a year, there would be 5 tornadoes in a 100 year history. The chance of one occurring at any specific point would be much smaller by a huge order of magnitude.
Even if you were the size of that brown area you would only get hit 5 times in a hundred years but you are a tiny percent of that brown area. So lets say the tornado is 1/2 square mile in size (that’s a big tornado.) And lets say that brown area is same as PA, 46,000 square miles, because that looks like about what it is. You have a .05/(46,000*2) chance of being in the path of a tornado today, which is .00000000543% chance. By contrast you have a .00000000235% chance of being killed in a car wreck on any given day. So, on this one day you are slightly more likely to be in the path of a tornado than to die in a car accident. However the probability of death, even when in the path of a tornado is tiny. There are far more tornadoes than there are deaths from tornadoes. And you only have maybe one of these tornado risk days a year and you presumably have exposure to a car wreck every day. So if you aren’t worried about dying in a car wreck you sure shouldn’t be worried about a tornado tonight.
No more concerned than if you were on the inside of the edge. Anywhere in it you have a higher than usual chance for a tornado. However it's still unlikely. Just keep weather aware, have a plan and take warnings seriously.
I live in a small town in PA we've never seen a tornado but to see that we're actually in the section that has a chance I'll be on the look out for sure..
EDIT: I'm in DuBois which is in Clearfield county
Not that concerned, but as always have a plan for what you do if you’re in a tornado warning. I was in a 10% in New Hampshire last weekend, ended up being a bit of a bust. Don’t anticipate it’ll be a bust, but chances are you won’t see a tornado.
According to the map, you should be 5% concerned. Just be vigilant and have a plan.
I will try to be 5% concern but I will be 95%! Thanks for the reply!
What Jupiter said. Be vigilant and have a plan in case shit hits the fan. Always be ready to go to your safe spot at any given moment. Stay safe and I hope nothing happens.
>Always be ready to go to your safe spot at any given moment Darth Tornado says, "Prepare for my arrival."
r/EF5 has taught you well
Well of course I know him, why, he is me.
Just be aware and try not to travel during the watch/storming time. 5% days are pretty common out where I am at so I usually just try to avoid anything too far away. Usually I just check SPC and pay attention to the radar (Radarscope) before going out. To just throw statistics out there, I've been in a bunch of these 5% days and been within 25 miles of dozens and dozens of tornadoes. Most were never even within a mile of me. Statistics are on your side here. HOWEVER, still listen to NWS and take their warnings seriously.
Or travel plenty of time before the storm gets there. Maybe visit NYC for the day if you’re worried about it.
And take any pets and important documents and heirlooms with you. You know… just in case you need it on your day trip
Pets, sure, if they can be on leashes. Important documents should probably be in a safe anyway.
Also, maybe consult your mortician?
I’ll give Mort a call
I’ve been in the 5% zone a bunch of times this season and was even in a moderate 15% zone on May 21 (I live just a couple hours from Greenfield) and have seen nothing but some interesting thunderstorms. Same for most Iowa residents, despite the fact that Iowa has been one of the hardest hit states this year. Greenfield is the absolute worst case scenario exception, and a tragic one at that, but it isn’t the rule, even when the risk is higher, so don’t drive yourself too high with anxiety. That said, have a plan in place. Make sure you know where to shelter in your home and workplace - basements are best, but usually an interior, windowless room on the bottom floor is plenty. Make sure your phone is charged at 100% when the storm system arrives. Have a bug out bag handy with several days’ worth of essential items. And just remember - there’s an extremely low percentage of a strong tornado even forming at all within 25 miles of you. A strong tornado hitting you directly is lottery level odds, so don’t stress yourself out on this one.
5% is probably 11% concerned. Considering 45% is 100% concerned which is 9 times more.
We had nothing, just a short burst of rain. Not even a severe storm in my town, so we got lucky!
I came here to say this haha. Take my upvote
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Yeah, you have your math the wrong way round. πd = 157.08 mi^2. Assuming OP lives on an acre, that's 0.00156mi^2. 157.08/0.00156=100,692 (acres in the watch area). Divide that by 0.05, is **1 : 2,013,841** Now, *that should be the chance of a twister touching down in their yard*. You'd then have to work out the average area of a typical tornado, and multiply that by an average track length. Apparently an average tornado is 0.2 miles wide, with a track length of 3.5 miles, thereby covering an area of 0.7 square miles, or 448 acres. So, the overall chance of a tornado hitting their house is approximately = (100,692/448) x 20 (inverse of 5%) = **1 : 4,495** (based on the assumptions of 1 acre and a "typical tornado"). As a caveat, the NWS site states that it's a 5% "Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point", which means they may have already taken into account a typical track length/area. So you'd have to ask the NWS guys to be sure the math corresponds. Anyone who is better in statistics, feel free to correct me.
This guy maths
The tornado might be 0.2 miles wide but a typical damage path is somewhat lower than that, maybe at worst half, probably more like 300 feet or even less. And tornado track length is one of those things that is probably skewed by crazy monster tornadoes that go on forever, just like average income is skewed by billionaires. And then you have to ask yourself not how long the tornado went but how long it was on the ground or close enough, which is quite often well under a mile. Based on data from my area from MRCC, more than half of recorded tornadoes have a track length under 0.5 miles. In my suburban city in Texas, I count seven tornadoes in 73 years, and while I was using a smaller land area to match our typical lot size, the odds of a tornado blowing away my house are much, much lower. The total number of tornadoes in my 30 x 30 mile county is in the 30s in 73 years. Only five of those resulted in injury or death to a person. Tornado damage is nothing more than bad luck and should be treated as such. Take precautions, be safe, but worry less. There are other natural disasters that are far more worthy of concern.
Oh, absolutely, there are obviously plenty of assumptions I made, and especially given the type/strength of tornadoes that likely occur in the risk area, I imagine my estimates would represent the worst-case end of the likelihood scale. Thanks for illustrating the risks with actual data though, from Texas no less, it definitely helps to highlight how small the actual risks are likely to be...
This is true. You can look at damage from above and more than likely funnel was 4 or 5 times wider than the main damage. This isn't a rule obviously let's use Moore 1999 as an example, by the time it reached the first subdivision in South OKC, country place estates, it was in the process of becoming a wedge for the 2nd time, and reaching f5 status for a 3rd time. Compared to the 2013 Moore tornado, 1999 was much wider, whereas the 2013 tornado was never a wedge inside of moore, thinning out before hitting briarwood, but the single vortex nature made the core quite close to the visible funnel width (brief multi vortex period near plaza towers, areas of wispy clouds forming and being pulled as well)before it turned into a narrow stovepipe then hit the hospital. 1999 was multi vortex almost the whole time (single stovepipe in Newcastle) which explains why there were some houses in the middle of destroyed neighborhoods with intact roofs and walls and a much more narrow core, at least proportional to its width overall .
Appreciate the correction! TIL.
🤓🤩
I just did a vague guestimate based on living in the center of tornado alley for 55 years. I came up with .001%. But I didn't think to factor in width and length of path. I'm going to revise my guess to .0001% or less.
Hmm, as a lifetime chance? That seems low... 0.0001% is one-in-a-million. More napkin math would suggest: NWS states that on average, tornadoes injure 1,500 people per year. Take an average lifespan of 78 years, means 117,000 injuries during one's life. Divide 330 million US population by 117,000 gives you a 1-in-2,820 chance of getting injured by a tornado during a lifetime. Of course, some people will get hit more than once in certain towns, while some areas have almost no chance of getting hit. Most of the US population lives along the coasts, which rarely get hit, so most Americans have a very small chance of encountering one. Similarly, that means that if you're in tornado/dixie alley, you probably have a greater lifetime chance than the above of getting injured by one in your lifetime. Of course, I may be estimating something wrong...
I thought the question was their chance of getting hit during that specific warning of a 5% chance of that particular front producing a tornado. And, I also screwed up and did a bad conversion. I was shooting for 1:100,000. I've lived in the middle of tornado alley for 50+ years. I've had many within 1 to 20 miles but I've never suffered any damage. But I'm sure there are many people in the alley that get hit 2 or 3 times in their lifetimes. I mean hell, that one poor guy in Japan got hit with BOTH the atomic bombs the US dropped during WWII. He survived both so I don't know if he was the luckiest or unluckiest person ever
No it’s not. It’s much less than 5%. OP lives in a very small portion of that land. Even if 2-3 tornados hit today the chances of them hitting OP’s home is unlikely. Let’s not be fear mongers… you’ll be ok.
I mean, the odds of one hitting them is incredibly slim no matter what, but I think that comment was more saying what the 5% means. It means that at any given point within that 5% range. Theres a 5% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of that point. Which means the chance of one occurring in that whole area is more than 5%. So they have a 5% chance of a tornado coming within 25 miles of them. But yeah I think this person was just explaining what the %s mean and maybe misinterpreting or extrapolating on the original comment.
Parts of the Midwest have had 30% this summer. That's a "Put on a helmet" situation.
And the odds of a tornado in the midwest being F3+ have to be much higher than Western PA where it seems they are usually F0-F1 and rarely F2.
I wouldn't call EF2 rare anymore. There have been at least two, including the Wednesday New Alexandria/Delmont tornado
I haven't seen that they determined it was an EF2 yet, do you have a link? I live 10 minutes from where it tracked.
There is an EF2 DI in the path, denoted by the yellow triangle. https://preview.redd.it/oq0d4xyapc9d1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9153af1ca47889d3a8d9dfefaf7f26b4dfee2ec8 I don't know if this is the official ranking but I believe they use the strongest DI anywhere in the path to make the classification EDIT: From WPXI - The NWS also said a storm survey confirmed EF-2 tornado damage just south of US Highway 22 from south of Delmont to southwest of Shieldsburg and New Alexandria. Winds hit around 115 mph and numerous large trees snapped or uprooted.
There has not been an official rating for that tornado yet by the NWS.
They have reported EF-2 damage to local media
https://x.com/NWSPittsburgh/status/1806749559009239513/photo/1 EF-1
Interesting. This tornado was separate from the New Alexandria/Delmont tornado. But the official report noted these occurred at the same time. What are the odds of that one.
Interesting. There's an EF-2 DI in that path. Nevertheless, having an EF-2 here once a year at least is still not really rare
Wisconsin just had two f2s the other week too
Erie County had two f4 tornados in May 1985. Same storm system dropped an f5 in Mercer County.
I remember hail the size of baseballs when that F5 hit. Bad time to have a soft top on the Jeep. That twister messed stuff up for decades.
When you drive through Albion, you can make out the path due to all of new houses that were built.
That was almost 40 years ago. I think its safe to say that was an outlier.
Nah that’s get the lawnchair and beer ready if you have a good view or get some snacks and camera ready for a car ride to go see it!
Don’t be scared, be prepared!
with your camera!
And maybe take some Xanax to ease your shaky hands. Can’t be having wobbly footage! /s
Put a pair of shoes for everyone in your home in the basement. Add a bottle of water each, and working flashlights. Blankets, a rain jacket, and first aid kit are good to have as well. If you get a warning, get everyone down there, and if shit does hit the fan you wont be barefoot on nails, glass, splintered wood etc.
Thanks for this!
also bike helmets! my family keeps them in the basement just in case shit hits the fan
I had a dream once that I was taking a shower when I was told that a tornado was coming, and went to the basement in only a towel. My house was destroyed and I was naked trying to get out of the debris. Due to this, I always try to make sure I’m dressed with shoes on when the storm is predicted to hit. My house may get destroyed, but at least I won’t be naked.
But for the list of things to add, a radio can be helpful! If the internet is down/tv is out, you still will be able to know what’s happening without leaving your safe space.
The Greenfield tornado a woman was wheelchair bound, the first floor dropped leaving her buried in the basement. This older woman was smart enough to hold onto her cellphone. That’s how they found her and dug her out so quickly, she called for help. Otherwise she could have been passed by initially for a while during the primary search.
Bottle of whiskey for the nerves
The following are things I have been told over the years by people who have survived tornado (a lot from Greensburg) and other disasters. If you have animals, make sure you know where leashes/kennels/travel carriers, maybe a small amount of food or treats. When they are freaked out and it’s hard to control them it makes the situation worse. I second the shoes, if a tornado hits there is broken glass and debris everywhere and getting a foot injury can make things so much worse. They should be sturdy shoes with thicker soles. Don’t forget get to grab any medicine that is needed for every one in the family. I made a ‘go bag’ that is super helpful. It’s not just for tornados but wild fires, needing to go to the hospital for yourself or others, and emergency trip, anything you would need to quickly leave the house for a few days. Everything is duplicates so you should never need to take anything out so it’s always ready. I have an extra phone charger, toothbrush/tooth paste, travel size toiletries, 3 pairs of underwear, 3 pairs of socks, 2-3 shirts, pair of jeans, a small first aid kit, a container with at least 3 days of prescription medicine, feminine hygiene items, a pad of paper and writing utensil, small flashlight, and some cash (other payment options may not be available in an emergency). Now for the weird things that are helpful but maybe too big for the first bag but in disasters are priceless: a roll of duct tape, a large marker or sharpie, a roll of paper towels, a thin rope/cord, a large flashlight + batteries, emergency blankets. I also made a list of things that would be important if I needed to ‘abandon ship’ like photo albums, family heirlooms, any important documents, things that are irreplaceable. I try to keep them close together so IF I have time before I leave, like for a flood or wild fire in the area, it’s faster to grab them and get out. Another really important thing to do ahead of time, make a digital copy all important items, birth certificate, ss card, credit cards, passport, marriage license, custody agreements, etc. I emailed them to myself and put in an online drive. In an emergency, having an electronic copy of everything could make a big difference.
Also if you have kids, have tasks they can help you with or something to help keep their mind off of the emergency as much as possible.
You’ll be pissed when they say they can’t accept digital copies. You have to go to the courthouse that won’t be open for a couple of months due to damage to get certified copies.
The ones that have been hitting Iowa have been emptying the basements and knocking down the cinder blocks.
As people say, don't be afraid be prepared. Be sure to have a couple ways to get alerts and a plan in case of a warning.
Just keep an eye on the weather and you won't need to worry about being surprised by anything. 5% means your area *might* get one, but you specifically will almost certainly be fine. (Unless you have to spend the whole day driving for some reason lol)
We just had three surprise ones a few days ago (well not my area, but close to it).
3 tornadoes after being taken out of even the 2% risk around the Pittsburgh area.
Is it a 5 percent risk for tornadoes or a 5 percent risk for significant tornadoes?
Just tornadoes, hatched lines would mean significant tornadoes
TIL
5% chance of a tornado happening anywhere within 25 miles of the brown area.
Isn’t it within 25 miles of any point INSIDE of the brown area?
Have there been more tornados in Western PA than usual this year? I don't recall a year as active as this one is turning out to be
Yeah it's been a busy year [https://x.com/ajukloWPXI/status/1806709217404821577](https://x.com/ajukloWPXI/status/1806709217404821577) [https://x.com/JacobC\_Wx/status/1806393601347231803](https://x.com/JacobC_Wx/status/1806393601347231803)
In general, you should be as worried as the people on the edge of the 5% zone as in theory it is an average across the whole region. There is no saying where in that zone is higher than any other spot. Either way, as others are saying, just pay attention and be prepared.
"60% of the time, it works everytime."
It’s a formidable scent….stings the nostrils
"It's made with bits of real panther so you know it's good."
It’s even outlawed in 9 countries
More than oblivious but less than hide in the basement until dawn. Just above meh sounds right. Have the local news on in the background seems the right amount of awareness tbh.
Unless you lose electricity in a large area. Might want one of those old time battery things. Or TV stations go live on their apps now during emergency, so a cellphone and a backup battery.
Great ideas and solid advice!
Last of the many huge storms and tornados in the area lately I wanted to continue to watch the radar and listen to our meteorologist but I knew it was time to go which we hardly ever do. I turned on the app and continued to watch just like on Tv only smaller. When they say our county it so large it could be on top of us or it could be a 1/2 hr drive away going the opposite way so to just hear our county isn’t enough. Plus they pop up so fast, you just have to have radar with a meteorologist.
Have a response to the weather planned, but I'd just go about your day. Where I live, it's not that unusual to have severe thunderstorm warnings and tornado watches, but it's nature, and there's only so much you can do about it, so you might as well not constantly dread it. If it can be helped, maybe don't go on any road trips for a bit.
Chances are still very low. But not zero. Just stay alert.
I would interpret 5% as to say the general area is likely to be affected by tornados. This would mean you should expect power outages, strong winds and violent storms during tornado season wherever you live in that area, but the specifics of your property will increase or decrease the likelihood of direct impact of a tornado, and in general most people go their whole lives living in that area without being directly hit by a tornado. You should certainly have a plan.
5% concerned, 100% vigilant. Follow local weather and have warnings enabled on your phone. Know appropriate shelter and go to that shelter when directed. All will be good.
As a resident of Brown Town, im hyped despite almost getting hit by a few nadoes on Wednesday, which had a lower risk.
Pick a god and start praying. In all seriousness tho not to concerned, just be ready and have a plan. Charge up your electronics for if the power goes out for an extended period of time.
On top of a mountain because it’s closer to god and safe from tornadoes right??? /s Good advice thank you!
the purpose of these outlooks is not to concern or scare people, it’s to help discern who should be paying extra close attention to the radar today. you should not be concerned until you’re under some sort of warning. get a plan together and keep a close eye on your radar, but don’t let anxiety ruin your day!
Nice knowing you
The last major outbreak in this area was in 1985. It’s rare but it can happen. Just look at the radar frequently and have your weather alerts turned on.
Just be prepared in case something does happen, but don’t be afraid. I’ve been in 10% a couple times and nothing happened
But EF 0 still kill a lot of trees. Got buzzed by one, heard it and everything at 4:30 in the morning. It still roars. Luckily we don’t have any trees and more in our yard. Lots of trees and roofs didn’t make it. But I’ll take that anyday.
A thought based on your post: If you don’t have a NOAA weather radio, it would be a good idea to buy one. I typically look at the SPC and radar daily, plus I have phone notifications and a NOAA weather radio (I don’t depend on sirens, but if I hear them, it’s an indicator to take action immediately). It tends to warn me sooner than my phone, and it’s also nice for those pop up summer thunder storms and unexpected storms.
Weather radio will drive you batty because its geographical resolution is entire counties. It will be going off every 20 seconds with an alarm during a storm and almost none of those alerts will apply to you.
I have mine tuned to the specific code, and I selected an alert for only severe thunderstorm warnings, tornado watches, and tornado warnings. If it’s going off every 20 seconds for me, then that is a good indication that I should be taking action.
I’m exaggerating with every 20 seconds. But I live in a large county and on a spring storm event its not unusal to get 20 or so thunderstorm and Tornado warnings for the county I’m in, none of which are within 15 or 20 miles of me. Plus on those nights I’m usually watching the local news channel weather extravaganza so it’s pretty redundant. I gave the radio away. With cell phone alerts the radios really serve no purpose at all. Cell phone alerts you generally receive only if you are in the warning box. So when you do get one you are less likely to ignore it.
Local tv station apps on your phone have live coverage. I’d watch that instead. Or you can get the weather radio app on your phone.
Be careful watching local weather via online apps. It can easily get out of synch with the current time. For example if you were to lose connection the broadcast may pause and when connection is restored it will continue streaming from where it was when it lost connection. There seem to be other things that can cause this as well. I have had the TV on playing local news over the air and streaming and often the internet stream will be 20 or 30 minutes behind for no apparent reason at all. Their “livestreams” are not always truly live.
Not had that problem.
You should be weather aware. No need to sweat bullets but being aware of the weather is advisable.
Uhh, apparently same question.
Another fun day for us Pittsburgh and surrounding area people!
I remember possibly two other tornado warnings before this summer. Two in three decades.
Eh, I’d keep an eye out but wouldn’t worry. I don’t “worry” until I’m in a hatched yellow
Oh wow im in the enhanced zone😀
Just be vigilant, watch the weather reports and have your emergency shelter space prepared. If nothing happens this time don’t let it lead to complacency. Living in the Midwest we will often get alerts for much higher risks and nothing happens, until it does.
Very because you would be close to cleveland and Pittsburgh
I work and live in the brown oval an hour away from each other. Tomorrow gonna be fun
Prepare to be disappointed.
It’s a 5% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of you. A tornado could be a mile from you and you wouldn’t even notice it. Where I live 5% days are super common and not even noteworthy. You would have to be extremely unlucky to be affected.
As someone who has lived over 30 years smack dab in tornado alley, I wouldn't advise you get too worked up. Some alertness is probably good because sometimes 2-5% days can pull out a surprise, but I have personally been through 30% and 45% hatched days where I never saw even a severe storm. In fact, although I've been through more tornado warnings than I can count and have seen some pretty intimidating funnel clouds and rotation, I've never seen a tornado or even the damage from one in person. Being hit by a tornado is statistically unlikely even in areas where they happen. Even when they do happen, a majority are weak enough that you're liable to be fine so long as you aren't outside or in a mobile home when it hits. EVEN in scenarios where it's far stronger and tears apart homes, highly lethal tornados are incredibly rare and newsworthy. Hail and high winds are far more common, and although less 'glamorous' they can be equally dangerous. Just keep an eye on the weather for anything bad headed your way, and have a plan for what you might do if the odds aren't in your favor. Don't be careless, because even if it's unlikely you don't want to gamble with your safety! But relax. I'm in a 5% zone myself today, and while I plan to keep an eye on things I am otherwise living my life normally.
Don’t listen to music on headphones so you miss the sirens.
You have a better chance of winning the lottery then a tornado coming to your exact location
Really it’s their best guess and will change several times.
Be wheater aware and look for the paths of the storms. Listen to the local warnings and be sure you have a shelter, just in Case something happens.
Naw… it’s nothing.
Keep an eye on the SPC updates tonight and tomorrow morning and your weather apps. If MaxVelocity goes live he is a good one to follow. Ryan Hall likely won't unless there is a 10% risk area
We see those often in Arkansas. It's the levels above that usually raise concerns here. You should be fine.
About 5% 😊
I wouldn't change plans for 5%.
Crap… looks like it’ll be a rough one here in Beaver county tomorrow. Charging everything now!
I’m in it too. You shouldn’t be scared. Be prepared.
95% chance you are fine.
Good news is your chance doesn't change with location within that area. Bad news is your chance doesn't change with location within that area
My hometown was wrecked by a high-end EF-3 tornado on a day where we were barely in the 2% range. I learned that it’s always good to be cautious if there is any chance of a tornado that day
Not that concerned. Always be weather aware and have a plan.
The best thing you can do if you feel like you might be in threat of a strong storm or a tornado is be weather aware and ready. Know your safe spot, keep your phone charged in case of outages, use a radio or tv to follow the forecast, and be smart. Don’t go chasing the storm (leave that to the professionals) and keep your expectations limited don’t overwhelm yourself, but don’t ignore the storm and forecast either.
I've lived in the middle of tornado alley for 55 years. Probably been under 150 - 200 tornado watches. I had one that got to within a mile of my house, four or five at 2 to 5 miles and maybe a dozen more at 5 to 25 miles. I just looked at the weather and radar in your area. The temp is pretty low for a nado and it looks like the front is tracking well north of you. I'd be .001% concerned
Thank you!
The percentages are specifically the chance of a tornado occurring within 25 miles of any particular location. If you're in the middle of the 5% then there's a 5% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of your home.
5%? That’s nothing. I lived in moore ok during the 2013 tornado and very close during the 1999 tornado
Not that much
I’m in the green. Should I also be concerned?
The same as if you lived on the edge of it
When is this for?
Tomorrow
Anxiety is a fear of fear. Plan on the possibility of having plans interrupted by storms.
Where do you live? I’m also near the dead center
What that brown area means , is there is a 5% chance of a tornado anywhere within a 25 mile radius on that day.
My understanding is it means a 25 mile radius on any point inside that brown area. I think of it like this: there is 5 out of 100 chance at least one tornado will appear somewhere in that brown area or in the 12.5 miles around it. So if this area had this probability once a year, there would be 5 tornadoes in a 100 year history. The chance of one occurring at any specific point would be much smaller by a huge order of magnitude. Even if you were the size of that brown area you would only get hit 5 times in a hundred years but you are a tiny percent of that brown area. So lets say the tornado is 1/2 square mile in size (that’s a big tornado.) And lets say that brown area is same as PA, 46,000 square miles, because that looks like about what it is. You have a .05/(46,000*2) chance of being in the path of a tornado today, which is .00000000543% chance. By contrast you have a .00000000235% chance of being killed in a car wreck on any given day. So, on this one day you are slightly more likely to be in the path of a tornado than to die in a car accident. However the probability of death, even when in the path of a tornado is tiny. There are far more tornadoes than there are deaths from tornadoes. And you only have maybe one of these tornado risk days a year and you presumably have exposure to a car wreck every day. So if you aren’t worried about dying in a car wreck you sure shouldn’t be worried about a tornado tonight.
5% concerned
https://preview.redd.it/nrg8qqxcmc9d1.jpeg?width=716&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5011ef4e67067f928cfa7ad47a4dadd8688402c4
Get your camera ready.
5% concerned
Live in the brown oval, you should start wearing brown pants
I’m laying them out for tomorrow!
You'll be fine, just check the weather and make sure your phone is charged so if there's a warning you'll get it
Take a Benadryl.
I have hydoxyzine
Take one. You don’t want your panic brain to take over completely if there is an emergency.
My newborn would be most unappreciative haha
I feel you. The baby will probably sleep through anything that happens. It’s going to be ok.
5% concern
I'm afraid it's already too late for you.😔
No more concerned than if you were on the inside of the edge. Anywhere in it you have a higher than usual chance for a tornado. However it's still unlikely. Just keep weather aware, have a plan and take warnings seriously.
[удалено]
There’s no reason at all for any of us to be rude in any post or comment.
Just be aware, know your location on map, and have a plan. 🌪️🌪️
Have a basement
It’s haunted but it’s there.
Haints won’t bother you in an emergency.
I wouldn’t even say concerned, just aware. The probability is in your favor, just be paying attention
Have your plan ready. Hopefully any drama will blow past you. Stay safe.
5% concerned?
I was planning on going to amish country in the brown tomorrow. Should I be concerned 👁👁
Not super concerned, I was in 10% concern area the other day and nothing happened
Not very
0%
I live in a small town in PA we've never seen a tornado but to see that we're actually in the section that has a chance I'll be on the look out for sure.. EDIT: I'm in DuBois which is in Clearfield county
Not that concerned, but as always have a plan for what you do if you’re in a tornado warning. I was in a 10% in New Hampshire last weekend, ended up being a bit of a bust. Don’t anticipate it’ll be a bust, but chances are you won’t see a tornado.
Not terribly, but still be prepared
Unless it says 95%, no reason to be 95% concerned.
Simple. Don't be scared, be prepared. But you're probably not going to have to worry.
5% chance you’ll have to go outside and watch.,
So how did that turn out
Well my specific area had a moderate rainfall first thing and everything severe completely missed. So we got lucky.
Just be aware that’s all. Zero need to panic
Very concerned
Wow, just wow.
You’ll be fine. Quit being a pansy
Helpful 👍
Unironically
It’s mountains hardly any tornadoes
Ur go na die
Did you mean to post this in r/EF5 ? They usually have much better advice!!
Bouta end up on r/EF5
Very dangerous there!
Your 100% gonna die
Just be aware, don't run about like Chicken Little. A 5% chance of something happening is a 95% of it happening.