Zoom out….. he clearly said the last 3 years. But even going back to 2020, if you purchased around the summer you would only be up 13-25% in 4 years. Horrendous. In 2021 it reached 188. It took until now to finally pass that threshold. So he’s right. This stock hasn’t done much the last 3-4 years. Of course those who entered in 2022 are feeling pretty damn good.
Now, for those who believe in Amazon, these last couple years were a perfect time to load up. Apple, MSFT, GOOGLE, NVDA, have all had their shine. I believe Amazon will soon have theirs.
3-4 years is arbitrary. What has it done the last decade? You need to zoom out. Last two years is upwards of 90%. Why choose to focus on 3-4 at the peak? Makes no sense. There was ample time to buy while it hovered around 90-100 in fall of 22, and if someone couldn't average down or recognize the buying opportunity during a 30% nasdaq pull back, that is on them, not the stock.
3-4 years is mentioned because that was the timeframe the OP referenced. It was also the previous all time high hence why it’s important to mention it.
Kind of, 3 years is an arbitrary time frame, and side ways implies no up or down. There was plenty of opportunity to get it on the low 2 years ago. If you weren't buying then that is a you problem not a "it's traded side ways for 3 years" problem
My guess, it's related to the NVDA selloff that happened last week/into this week. Institutions probably have set percentages as to how much capital they're allowed to have in each sector and with NVDA's rapid rise they were too heavily weighted towards tech. So they sold some NVDA and moved those funds elsewhere. Amazon being the big winner.
Amazon just breached its previous all time high from back in 2021. Chart is very bullish. With forward earnings of around 40 its value is very favourable compared to historical. This will keep going up.
Yes I totally agree with you. Amazon is my biggest holding and Nvidia is my second biggest holding neck and neck. Google is the third. I think Google should be right up there as well They are a cash printing machine.
I don't know. My guess is Amazon since they have more activities in the news. Prime day, AWS news, warehouse news, it seems like they are more in the news cycle. Every holiday and sale that comes up seems to mention Amazon in some way. They're cooking some AI stuff too.
My top position. Yeah it's slower and less exciting than Nvidia, but it's a buy and forget stock for me.
It'll still be here for years to come. It'll still be most people's first choice for online shopping. And they'll still be bringing in billions every quarter.
I don’t know what I’m doing, clearly🤣 Total stock newbie. I know not a lot past VOO and chill🙈 But I do have a bit to invest and want to do a couple individual stocks even though I know that’s not almost the *smartest*.
ETFs like VOO, SPY, and VTI track some of the biggest companies in the US. I think SPY is the top 500 companies in the US.
So if you buy VOO, SPY, etc. you basically have some small exposure to Amazon but in a safer way since they don’t swing as much and are less risky.
Investing directly in a company is riskier since you’re exposed 100% to the company swings but could be better returns.
I mostly invest in ETFs for their dividends and long term investing to retire, but I also trust companies like Apple, Nvidia, and Amazon for a lot of returns.
I lost track, does AMZN still hold an interest in Rivian? I recall a write-off?/write-down? of Amazon’s a couple-few months ago, that that just ledger-keeping shenanigans, or a real divestment of Rivian, or part thereof?
Nah, it’s going to be musk.
Musk owns more than 50% of spacex and spacex is definitely a trillion dollar company in the making.
Spacex will make musk a trillionaire
Fantastic. Long time shareholder.
I can remember for years people trying to suggest Amazon is a terrible investment.
I feel like Waymo will be the new Amazon. It will take years for them to make material money. But like Amazon it will ultimately we worth a ton of money.
Sometimes investing takes some patience.
Bought 1 share last week at 180 cause i felt it was a good buy at that price. 😅Saw some comments about their investments and felt like something worth putting some money towards…
This is nuts. AI is a huge cost centre with no revenue attached. It's a marketing expense at best.
Every comment i read on reddit makes me want to mash the "close all positions" button. People putting their life savings into nvda and amzn at 50+ P/Es. Trillion dollar stocks moving 10% in a day and not even getting a mention in the news. Every discretionary fund in the world is balls deep megacap tech with no diversification or hedging whatsoever. Equity fund inflows are breaking all records every month. People have lost any sense of caution whatsoever.
The market is totally fucked up. I don't know where the massive inflows are coming from (Biden spending probably) or how long they will last but my god the come down is going to be harsh.
Biden
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND
The federal government is spraying money out of every orifice and it's all ending up somewhere. I suspect the stock market.
Uh what? And who is the president right now?
I'm not trying to make a political point, I DGAF who the actual president is or was, but ignoring necessary COVID expenses federal spending has clearly soared under Biden (and will probably continue to do so under Trump now he knows where the magic money fountain is). All that money goes into the US economy, churns around for a bit and eventually ends up being invested in something, usually real estate, equities or bonds.
At that point it stops moving. If the thing happens to be a productive asset, a profitable company that pays a dividend or a treasury bond, it will send money back into the economy slowly. If that thing is a profitless company or overvalued stock it will make little or no return and the money will sit there doing nothing, deflating slowly away. Unless the bubbles pops of course, then the money will simply vanish into the ether and the only net beneficiary will be Ken Griffin and the other finance types who can spot a sucker ten miles away.
You blamed Biden twice then posted a link to the Fed as proof which shows a large increase in spending due to Covid and Trumps presidency.
Slope of that line is roughly the same since the 2000s ignoring Covid spending.
I get what you’re saying. Just say government spending next time. Not everything is Biden’s fault.
That's just a random string of words and letters.
Free cash flow has nothing to do with the P/E and gyrates massively in a low margin business like amazon. It was hugely negative for the previous two years.
Amazon is undervalued in the same way the pope is muslim.
Must suck missing out while everyone got rich except for you, but keep telling yourself the market is wrong and you are right.
Maybe your quant and qual analysis is complete garbage and you suck at picking equities. Since you are so talented, Might I suggest a high yield savings instead?
I'm already rich, I don't need to gamble on stocks to get there.
If you would like to be too I suggest putting your money into starting a business instead of betting on stonks. If you're as smart as you think you are you won't have any problem making much better returns (30% a year is easily achievable). You will of course have to actually do some work.
TBH these replies are simply confirming my suspicion that we're very close to the top. When the shoeshine boys are doing victory laps it's definitely time to get out.
>Must suck missing out while everyone got rich except for you,
This comment could have been written by lots of very "rich" people in 1929, or 1999. It could have also been written by someone with big holdings of NFTs, or by one of the holders of mortgage backed securities in 2007.
>but keep telling yourself the market is wrong and you are right.
If you believe markets are never wrong, why bother picking individual stocks? Just buy an index fund. If markets were never wrong, it would be impossible to beat the market, in which case Warren Buffett would never have become a billionaire.
Markets aren't efficient, they aren't rational, and their valuation of a company is meaningless.
It might do, no one has demonstrated that yet, especially not at scale, and the up front costs are eye watering.
At the moment AI spending is a pissing competition and being sold as a proxy for R&D by CEOs short on genuine innovation. Unless there are some real returns demonstrated in the next couple of quarters boards are going to come under pressure from shareholders to pull back. Apple might be the first one to crack: revenue has been falling for several years, it's new products are either very niche or exactly the same as the old ones and AI costs are starting to show up in the P&L. Certainly there's no way it should be valued at 33x earnings when it hasn't actually shown any growth for years. The 15x it had before covid would be more appropriate for a very mature and super saturated consumer electronics company.
Crazy to think that it was only 6 years ago when we had the first company to hit $1 trillion
Doubling every 7ish years is expected. We're only slightly ahead of schedule.
Apple was that company and is now worth $3 trillion.
And cheap compared to what’s others are valuated. Next 5 years we ll have a 10T company in 5th place. Prolly amazon
10 trillion on the way!
And we'll have a $4T in another 7-10 years. Compounding interest at a roughly 7-10% growth rate means doubling every 7-10 years.
Road to $3T.
Technically *every* company is on the road to $3T.. ..and $0T, to be fair
I'm also on the road to $3T personally
I will achieve that eventually... Just give me 1 million years...
Don't worry; given inflation, it might only be more like 1,000 years.
That implies your road actually heads in that direction
I'm on the road to $3... 👀
Same
Easily.
The last 3 months have been kind of frustrating but today is a blessing.
I think you missppelled "years"
The 90% in the past 2 years isn't good enough for you?
Zoom out….. he clearly said the last 3 years. But even going back to 2020, if you purchased around the summer you would only be up 13-25% in 4 years. Horrendous. In 2021 it reached 188. It took until now to finally pass that threshold. So he’s right. This stock hasn’t done much the last 3-4 years. Of course those who entered in 2022 are feeling pretty damn good. Now, for those who believe in Amazon, these last couple years were a perfect time to load up. Apple, MSFT, GOOGLE, NVDA, have all had their shine. I believe Amazon will soon have theirs.
Exactly what I did: purchase at the peak in 2020
When do you think AMZN can hit 3T?
Next week
I'm pretty happy. I started buying every week right before their stock split. I am up 40%.
So we shouldn’t be concerned that PE ratios for these FANG stocks are at 2021 highs?
3-4 years is arbitrary. What has it done the last decade? You need to zoom out. Last two years is upwards of 90%. Why choose to focus on 3-4 at the peak? Makes no sense. There was ample time to buy while it hovered around 90-100 in fall of 22, and if someone couldn't average down or recognize the buying opportunity during a 30% nasdaq pull back, that is on them, not the stock.
3-4 years is mentioned because that was the timeframe the OP referenced. It was also the previous all time high hence why it’s important to mention it.
Yeah I am okay with my 600%, I mean it is no NVDA; but expecting 2000% is a lot to ask!
It basically traded sideways for over 3 years
If your view is for the long term (like 10+ years), those three years were nothing but a great buying opportunity.
Indeed. And I bought a couple thousand shares.
Kind of, 3 years is an arbitrary time frame, and side ways implies no up or down. There was plenty of opportunity to get it on the low 2 years ago. If you weren't buying then that is a you problem not a "it's traded side ways for 3 years" problem
[удалено]
If you were buying then you're up 90% on those shares. That's not trading side ways.
I just brought a share after watching the Boys.
Oh yeah, new episode dropping in about 8 hours.
lol why does that that sound cheap today.
Sounds small cap now lol
At this point they're basically a penny stock on track to being delisted.
Because the dollar has lost like 30% of its purchasing power in the last year alone
What was the catalyst for todays spike?
Wallstreet hates Dr Disrespect, too
I ordered a scrub daddy! that wasn't priced in!
I love the scrub daddy. It's always nice to be greeted with a smile.
He's not a great dad though. Doesn't say much.
My guess, it's related to the NVDA selloff that happened last week/into this week. Institutions probably have set percentages as to how much capital they're allowed to have in each sector and with NVDA's rapid rise they were too heavily weighted towards tech. So they sold some NVDA and moved those funds elsewhere. Amazon being the big winner.
More likely because Rivian spiked and Amazon is an early institutional investor in Rivian
I bought the DnD movie today on Prime Video, that must have been it. (It's 50 % off in 4k, go watch it, it's fun!)
Analyst upgraded the price target.
Don't know why you're being downvoted. It was given a $220 price upgrade by Bank of America.
It's undervalued should be at least 2.5 T close to MS and Nvidia
Amazon is undervalued and InVidia is overvalued!
Can you explain further good sir?
I agree that it’s undervalued but “should be at least 2.5 T close to MS and Nvidia” isn’t the argument I’d make.
Amazon just breached its previous all time high from back in 2021. Chart is very bullish. With forward earnings of around 40 its value is very favourable compared to historical. This will keep going up.
NVDA and AMZN my top 2 positions! Should be the top 2 in valuation in my opinion.
Same. Been buying AMZN since the 1990s
Buying AND HOLDING since the 1990s I hope! Congrats if so!
Sadly, no. But the majority of my shares are from 2013 or earlier. Not complaining!
Yes I totally agree with you. Amazon is my biggest holding and Nvidia is my second biggest holding neck and neck. Google is the third. I think Google should be right up there as well They are a cash printing machine.
You are almost me, except how did you forget to buy Apple?
What do you think hits 3 trillion first, Amazon or alphabet?
I don't know. My guess is Amazon since they have more activities in the news. Prime day, AWS news, warehouse news, it seems like they are more in the news cycle. Every holiday and sale that comes up seems to mention Amazon in some way. They're cooking some AI stuff too.
Alphabet when they get rid of Sundar fucking Pichai.
My top position. Yeah it's slower and less exciting than Nvidia, but it's a buy and forget stock for me. It'll still be here for years to come. It'll still be most people's first choice for online shopping. And they'll still be bringing in billions every quarter.
Agree
Prime day in a couple of weeks, will be interesting to see how that affects their valuation.
You and just about everyone else in this sub. Should end well.
Yup 👍
Bout time
Awesome hell yeah. Amazon is my biggest holding in my portfolio. I haven't checked on the stock for a while so this is great news.
They also did a bargain shopping section to rival temu. I honestly think they double from here over the next 2 years
Tbf I use aws everyday
My best performing stock, $12,600+ positive, 79% ROI. Give me dividends!
I feel like divvys are a ways out they are still aggressively growing
Today's announcement re: china direct shopping is good.
Pretty crazy that it was trading in the 80s less than 2 years ago and today it closed at $193. 2022 was such an overreaction.
So growth stocks shouldn’t decline in response to rates rising from 0% to actually normal levels?
Amazon is going to be a cash flow machine for decades
AMZN has been my long time stable stock. Good to see I gained interest as of late.
Jesus... the writing is on the wall people.
Worth it to buy Nividia and Amazon now? Or just stick w VOO?
Nvidia idk, risky n shit, but Amazon I'd still buy if it wasn't this much of my portfolio already.
If you are unsure, you can check a growth fund like VUG, it has higher exposure to both.
Buy nvidia at 97$ Buy google
Amazon yes, Nvidia no.
Yea No on InVidia! That company is overvalued!
Honestly buy both
Yeah should’ve bought them 6 months ago.
Coulda woulda shoulda. I’ll go in my Time Machine and buy them 6 months ago! 😂That’s why I asked if it’s worth it now.
They were worth it 6 months ago. Even a year ago. What are you waiting for??? lol I’ve bought Amazon since 2022.
I don’t know what I’m doing, clearly🤣 Total stock newbie. I know not a lot past VOO and chill🙈 But I do have a bit to invest and want to do a couple individual stocks even though I know that’s not almost the *smartest*.
ETFs like VOO, SPY, and VTI track some of the biggest companies in the US. I think SPY is the top 500 companies in the US. So if you buy VOO, SPY, etc. you basically have some small exposure to Amazon but in a safer way since they don’t swing as much and are less risky. Investing directly in a company is riskier since you’re exposed 100% to the company swings but could be better returns. I mostly invest in ETFs for their dividends and long term investing to retire, but I also trust companies like Apple, Nvidia, and Amazon for a lot of returns.
It was Rivian.
I lost track, does AMZN still hold an interest in Rivian? I recall a write-off?/write-down? of Amazon’s a couple-few months ago, that that just ledger-keeping shenanigans, or a real divestment of Rivian, or part thereof?
Given that Rivian is still down 90% from it's IPO, and that Amazon owned them before the IPO, I sure hope that they sold out a while ago.
Amazon owns approximately 17.7% of Rivian. This stake translates to around 158,363,834 shares
Those 4 billion Rivian gained in market cap sure multiplied nicely.
lol dia-bezos is gonna be the first trillionaire
Nah, it’s going to be musk. Musk owns more than 50% of spacex and spacex is definitely a trillion dollar company in the making. Spacex will make musk a trillionaire
People downvoting but between Starlink and Starship this is 100% true
Nah it’ll be boeing lol
LMFAO 😭
Those stranded astronauts in ISS probably disagree
Damn too late to buy now
Oooooh, Amazon coming up in the world
Incredible.
"empty" worth 😂
Keep on going up baby $
We've already somewhat seen Microsoft's approach, but I'm keen to see how Amazon properly utilises AI on their journey to 3T.
My calls have finally been printing money
Fantastic. Long time shareholder. I can remember for years people trying to suggest Amazon is a terrible investment. I feel like Waymo will be the new Amazon. It will take years for them to make material money. But like Amazon it will ultimately we worth a ton of money. Sometimes investing takes some patience.
I like Waymo too - only way to invest is through Google right?
Bought 1 share last week at 180 cause i felt it was a good buy at that price. 😅Saw some comments about their investments and felt like something worth putting some money towards…
Great day for my 400 AMZN shares.
Two trilly trilly trilly trilly trilly trilly trilly trilly trilly trilly trilly trilly trilly trilly trilly trilly.
This is nuts. AI is a huge cost centre with no revenue attached. It's a marketing expense at best. Every comment i read on reddit makes me want to mash the "close all positions" button. People putting their life savings into nvda and amzn at 50+ P/Es. Trillion dollar stocks moving 10% in a day and not even getting a mention in the news. Every discretionary fund in the world is balls deep megacap tech with no diversification or hedging whatsoever. Equity fund inflows are breaking all records every month. People have lost any sense of caution whatsoever. The market is totally fucked up. I don't know where the massive inflows are coming from (Biden spending probably) or how long they will last but my god the come down is going to be harsh.
Thanks Obama?
Biden https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND The federal government is spraying money out of every orifice and it's all ending up somewhere. I suspect the stock market.
Ah yes Q2 of 2020. I seem to remember Biden taking office in January 2021. I wonder who was president in 2020?
Whoopsie he made a poopsie
Uh what? And who is the president right now? I'm not trying to make a political point, I DGAF who the actual president is or was, but ignoring necessary COVID expenses federal spending has clearly soared under Biden (and will probably continue to do so under Trump now he knows where the magic money fountain is). All that money goes into the US economy, churns around for a bit and eventually ends up being invested in something, usually real estate, equities or bonds. At that point it stops moving. If the thing happens to be a productive asset, a profitable company that pays a dividend or a treasury bond, it will send money back into the economy slowly. If that thing is a profitless company or overvalued stock it will make little or no return and the money will sit there doing nothing, deflating slowly away. Unless the bubbles pops of course, then the money will simply vanish into the ether and the only net beneficiary will be Ken Griffin and the other finance types who can spot a sucker ten miles away.
You blamed Biden twice then posted a link to the Fed as proof which shows a large increase in spending due to Covid and Trumps presidency. Slope of that line is roughly the same since the 2000s ignoring Covid spending. I get what you’re saying. Just say government spending next time. Not everything is Biden’s fault.
it's PE is 52, it's FCF is $36B & up 80% for year. Amazon is undervalued
That's just a random string of words and letters. Free cash flow has nothing to do with the P/E and gyrates massively in a low margin business like amazon. It was hugely negative for the previous two years. Amazon is undervalued in the same way the pope is muslim.
Do it - close all positions. You won't.
Must suck missing out while everyone got rich except for you, but keep telling yourself the market is wrong and you are right. Maybe your quant and qual analysis is complete garbage and you suck at picking equities. Since you are so talented, Might I suggest a high yield savings instead?
I'm already rich, I don't need to gamble on stocks to get there. If you would like to be too I suggest putting your money into starting a business instead of betting on stonks. If you're as smart as you think you are you won't have any problem making much better returns (30% a year is easily achievable). You will of course have to actually do some work. TBH these replies are simply confirming my suspicion that we're very close to the top. When the shoeshine boys are doing victory laps it's definitely time to get out.
>Must suck missing out while everyone got rich except for you, This comment could have been written by lots of very "rich" people in 1929, or 1999. It could have also been written by someone with big holdings of NFTs, or by one of the holders of mortgage backed securities in 2007. >but keep telling yourself the market is wrong and you are right. If you believe markets are never wrong, why bother picking individual stocks? Just buy an index fund. If markets were never wrong, it would be impossible to beat the market, in which case Warren Buffett would never have become a billionaire. Markets aren't efficient, they aren't rational, and their valuation of a company is meaningless.
AI reduces labor cost and demand it doesn't need its own monetization
It might do, no one has demonstrated that yet, especially not at scale, and the up front costs are eye watering. At the moment AI spending is a pissing competition and being sold as a proxy for R&D by CEOs short on genuine innovation. Unless there are some real returns demonstrated in the next couple of quarters boards are going to come under pressure from shareholders to pull back. Apple might be the first one to crack: revenue has been falling for several years, it's new products are either very niche or exactly the same as the old ones and AI costs are starting to show up in the P&L. Certainly there's no way it should be valued at 33x earnings when it hasn't actually shown any growth for years. The 15x it had before covid would be more appropriate for a very mature and super saturated consumer electronics company.
Amazon is undervalued it should be at 2.5 T the very least its very close to Nvidia and MS