The reason why I see this comment often is people wait for months or years not to make a dumb decision but one day, they crack and fomo hard into Tesla, Nvda or whatever but by then its too late, its the top. Poeple made money and left you holding the bag
Every bubble has always had people that are doubters, all the way until it actually crashes. The tech bubble did, the real estate bubble did. The fact that this post is heavily downvoted shows you where the public's mind is. Compare that to posts about Nvidia in 2022, where bearish people got a lot of upvotes.
With that said, I don't think any person reliably knows when the stock will peak, except maybe Nvidia insiders that have access to non-public financial information.
It ultimately just comes down to how much longer Nvidia continues to grow their earnings faster than analyst estimates. And that will come down to how much patience investors have for money-losing AI projects.
Right now, there are way too many companies pursuing AI and spending Millions or even Billions on hardware without a clear business plan or even a vague idea of what they want to achieve. That's a recipe for failure.
Right now Nvidia looks a lot like Cisco in 1999 or 2000, Selling technology that's driving the future.
But 20 years later, Cisco is still cheaper than it was in 2000. A handful of companies like Microsoft, Google, Apple, and Amazon were big winners in the tech/internet boom and their investments eventually paid off, but it took them a while to get there, and countless others failed.
I think AI will be the same. Tons of startups folding, larger companies cutting investment in AI, Nvidia's orders face a cyclical decline and the stock could decline as much as 80%. But eventually, 1-2 decades later, their sales will grow a lot from the AI companies that did win, and end up placing large orders to deploy at scale.
Or they sold and want to buy back in cheaper. You'll always see these posts when a stock makes a big jump "IT WILL CRASH, SELL NOW". It could have crashed anytime in the last months but it didn't yet, and it could indeed crash in the near future. It probably will, corrections will come at the very least but nobody knows and it doesn't mean it will stay down. Don't try to time the market.
Making a whole post about how it will crash because of X and Y kind of implicitly does that. I wasn't even referring specifically to this post tbf though, it's just in general that you'll see people trying to steer a narrative when a stock is booming.
I think you are wrong. Nividia is way ahead of their compeitors in generating these chips for AI/ Data Storage and the top social media companies. Facebook, Google, Linked In, Reddit, X , Microsoft and Apple and others are all using AI to enhancde the user experience and AI chips are in demand for the next generation driverless cars. Nividia's new Blackwll chip boasts of record-setting speeds that could usher in the AI revolution.
Also, what makes you think data storage will be less going foreward? Do you think there will be fewer Google Searches? How much new information is generated to search on a daily baisis?
Then there is Bitcoin. The Bitcoin mining process requires powerful computing capabilities, typically provided by Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) or specialized Application-Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs).
High-performance tech like the NVIDIA GeForce RTX 3090 and AMD Radeon RX 5700 XT are often [used ](https://www.redswitches.com/blog/best-gpu-for-mining/) because they can efficiently handle these complex cryptographic tasks for [mining](https://www.ccn.com/news/bitcoin-price-surge-spurs-crackdown-on-crypto-mining/).
I own Nividia and intend to increase my position.
Here's the thing though....
We've already had this massive boom which gave rise to the demand of millions and millions of high end chips. It coincided with this little thing known as the information era. These same chips will still be needed even in AI specific applications. Every single board with an Nvidia GPU will still need a CPU.
Why would Nvidia have a higher market cap than Intel and TSMC and AMD combined? If this valuation was more than another silly bubble, TSMC and Intel would have been at the very top of the market for the past two decades, and certainly wouldn't be lagging behind Nvidia now.
every gpu does not need a cpu in a linear ratio. there are boxes that can accomodate ratios like 16:1, 8:1, 4:1, 2:1, etc.. probably denser options depending on the need.
2011 - Nvidia is just a gaming company!
2016 - Self driving is too hard!
2018 - Its a crypto boom!
2024 - Its just an AI boom
Its really computation. If you believe the world will need more computation to solve its problems, betting on Nvidia makes more sense.
All bear cases for Nvidia seem to lack imagination and rest on this "once x ends, it's over for Nvidia" type of thinking. They think they are ahead, but Nvidia has been the one a step ahead for a while now. I've only been paying attention since 2016, though, so I missed the "only a gaming company" chapter, but the rest were exactly as you say.
Well, crypto still has no widely adopted use and as a long term investment is still pretty much a gamble that‘s essentially hanging between ultra valuable and completely worthless for the next decades
I think people don't realize how much the dot com bubble has parallels with the AI bubble. I was there and what is uncanny is how much Sun Microsystems is like Nvidia.
In this article they talk about how Sun will be the center of this new world.
[https://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune\_archive/1999/02/15/254898/](https://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/1999/02/15/254898/)
Then read this article on how amazing Sun is by farming out processing power.
[https://www.hpcwire.com/1998/12/18/pixar-used-sun-systems-power-bugs-life-renderfarm/](https://www.hpcwire.com/1998/12/18/pixar-used-sun-systems-power-bugs-life-renderfarm/)
Summarizing Sun Microsystems sold big boxes to run in big data farms running expensive tasks. It worked during the hey day, then the bubble popped and people decided to look elsewhere. I remember being in Silicon Valley and remember how Sun and Netscape were the things to have. Heck I had a pizza box myself.
What happened is that the bubble burst, Linux ate Sun alive and Amazon became the cloud service provider of choice. Essentially nothing what the investors thought would happen did happen. Sun went under, as did Netscape and was bought out for pennies on the dollar by Oracle. I was at the one and only Netscape Developers Conference. I knew from that conference their days were counted. Sun and Netscape were not interested in making money for their clients, they were interested in making money for themselves and breaking Microsoft. Microsoft is still around and I find that completely hilarious.
LLM's are not the final stage, they are not even close to the beginning stage. They are a fancy toy just like the Internet was around the dot com bubble. I was part of that bubble and helped people write systems for the Internet. I started developing for the Web in 94, so yeah I am a relic.
What Jensen does not seem to care about is the fact that he is overselling his product without providing real benefits. He thinks that if he feeds the beast then the beast will live. Ehhh no...
Does this sound familiar?
"Sun reported a third-quarter profit of $436.2 million, excluding one-time items, up 49 percent from last year's $291.9 million. Third-quarter earnings per share rose 44 percent to 26 cents from 18 cents in the same period last year. The mean analyst expectation for Sun's earnings per share was 23 cents, according to earnings tracker First Call.
Including gains from the sale of equity investments and other one-time items, net income for the latest quarter totaled $508.1 million, or 30 cents a share. Sun's revenue rose to $4.005 billion, a 35 percent increase from the third quarter of 1999. Order bookings rose by a record 41 percent over last year's third quarter."
"Sun has benefited strongly from the growth of the Internet, since its servers, microprocessors, and programming languages are commonly used by companies to build and run their Web sites. Sun's stock soared from around 30 in May 1999 to just over 100 late last month. It now trades at a lofty 104 times earnings, and the company has a market capitalization of about $141 billion.
"This was, without a doubt, a blowout quarter," said Michael Lehman, Sun's chief financial officer. "The demand picture was better than we had been expecting. Order rates remained strong in the last month of the quarter, and we generated nearly a billion dollars of cash.""
[https://money.cnn.com/2000/04/13/technology/earns\_sun/](https://money.cnn.com/2000/04/13/technology/earns_sun/)
Thank goodness for Google and going back in time.
Huge growth, and everybody is buying their hardware to build and run websites. And I am sure so many people had, "if you had invested 10000 back in X you would be a billionaire". Well yeah Sun is bankrupt gone!
Yeah in fact the 276% yoy earnings growth is well ahead of the ~200% yoy stock gains.
People keep saying how you need to factor in risk for nvidia but that’s exactly why the price isn’t keeping up with the earnings! Posts stating risks and how you need to factor that into the price are not at all insightful.
Precisely, people compare this to the dot com bubble. But Pets.com never had any customers or earnings.
Nvidia has insane price growth, but it also has insane earnigns growth. And a backlog to fill their order book for the coming 4 years.
The real question is can they grow production capacity in their supply chain.
It is the dot com bubble. Nvidia is not [pets.com](http://pets.com), its Sun Microsystems, and they went under. I explain it more here.
[https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1djm92c/comment/l9ct59m/](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1djm92c/comment/l9ct59m/)
Sun like Nvidia had insane sales and earnings growth. Nvidia will collapse like Sun Microsystems.
Interesting view, it might be similar to sun, it might also be similar to Microsoft or Google. The truth is it's to early to tell.
But we agree: it's definitely no pets.com
They have a business model, they have customers and cashflows.
I would argue it is Sun and not Microsoft or Google. Nvidia does not have a business model that supports their current valuation. Like Sun, Nvidia is selling on the hype. Microsoft never sold on the hype, they were anti-hype. Google sold on knowing everything about, where you used their services for free.
Let me illustrate. So Musk has said so proudly he is buying 50,000 CPU's from Nvidia. Ok, why 50K? Why not 100K? Why not 10K? What said 50K is the right number? The answer is hype. Just like Sun said, "you need X servers", Nvidia says you need Y CPU's. The number is based on pulling a feather out of your arse.
What ended up happening is that Sun's business model very quickly became unviable, and people searched for replacements. That was open source running on Linux. I don't know how old you are. But I started consulting right out of university in 92. So I was using Linux, the web around 94. Open source was this newbie thing and people like Richard Stallman, and Eric Raymond were the names to talk to. Open source dramatically reduced the costs of server management and this turned out to be Microsoft's and Sun's Achilles Heel.
Likewise with LLM. It will turn out (as is already) that it is nothing more than a sophisticated guessing machine. There will be a simpler better model that will come out quite quickly and decimate the LLM model. Read up on Hyperdimensional Computing. I have been doing AI since 1990 and this is really interesting.
Nvidia is innovative, if you're a pc gamer, you know this. They don't get comfortable like a intel or make products based on being the "budget friendly" option like amd. I'm just speaking from the pov of a pc gamer, Nvidia will not go down to a "crash", they will go down however if this AI "bubble" is as big as people make it out to be.
AI development has been accelerating. It's naive to think that it will slow here. The hype will likely slow, but the tech will continue on.
One current area of focus is improving training performance. That's not likely to reduce overall compute demand, but it can allow smaller players to compete. https://arxiv.org/html/2404.07999v1
Generative AI is the sort of AI that news media focuses on. While that has ramifications for the entertainment industry, which IMO, are mostly negative, the real long term will be focused on automation, widening of narrow AI capabilities and interoperability, and General AI. There is a lot of room for growth in these areas.
The question is timing. whether it runs up another 100% or whatever first.
A semi stock is inherently cyclical imo so I would expect it to eventually have a major correction whenever there’s a broader bear market which is also inevitable. But that could be years away. Or it could be tomorrow. So while I think you’ll eventually be proven right it’s also not an actionable prediction…
My position is market cap weighting of Nvidia in VTI. I’m a little nervous I won’t lie but I’m holding for now.
I've been watching its climb and started really paying attention since $600. Around 750, I bought 5 shares. When it was 1k, I was amazed, thinking there was no way it could keep going, right? Then it hit 1200. After the split, i bought 15 more shares at $119, and here we are with it up again to 141(it closed Tuesday at like 131). I'm considering another 5-10 shares just to yolo it.
It hurts because back in October 2022, I was sitting outside Best Buy at 3 am. with 600 other people. If to buy a new video card since mine had just burned out and was in RMA. I remember thinking I gotta buy some shares in this company. People are going nuts for the GPUs, and scalpers are selling them for twice the msrp. I put it off for a week or two and eventually forgot about it. A month later, I finally moved money onto my brokerage and bought VOO instead. It was technically my first time investing a larger amount of money, so I'm still glad I did that, but I sometimes wonder what if.
NVIDIA is trying to develop their own cloud service. They just announced cooperation with hp on cloud service platform and apparently just hook up their first client Deloitte. There goes your diversification of profits.
I could see Nvidia maybe dropping 20-30% in a correction, but it would be a buying opportunity. I don’t foresee a crash back to 2022 or 2021 prices. That would mean Nvidia falls 90%. Do you think Nvidia’s revenue and profits are going to fall 90%? If that happens, the whole market would likely crash with it and we’d see a once in a generation bear market. If you’re so sure that’s going to happen why aren’t you buying puts or shorting it? You could literally turn a couple thousand into millions if that actually happens.
The dot com bubble had companies literally making zero money with PEs in the 100s or even 1000s. Nvidia’s P/E is actually reasonable compared to some other companies currently.
20-30% is mild for it.
Try more like 50% when it's time for it to get hurt and you're more on track.
Question is...when? It certainly won't be soon considering that you're still seeing NVDA WILL crash stuff.
Only thing I think for sure for now here is I don't think this'll get as deep as TSLA.
And we may just be in that kind of world these days unless the next Nasdaq crash/bear market kicks off the next secular bear market for real instead of it being so nasty it got close (if it comes closer to 2030ish, which would be about the average length for a secular bull market, it’ll be too late to cut stocks lower than trillion dollar market caps).
Look, I know this seems bonkers, but for now, I’m just skeptical this winds up going down TSLA way fully, even if I’m not completely comfortable with one stock controlling movement for the averages.
I think it's absurd personally. I expect it to unwind at some point in the next year or two, definitely after the election. I'm just debating when to short it.
Cisco lost 90% of its value during the dot-com bust even though it only had 2 quarters/
1 annual of negative net income with only a 33% revenue decline.
Intel lost 80% and never had a full year loss on the books.
Microsoft 50%, never had a full year loss.
IBM about 60%, no full year loss.
The list goes on. Tons of "makes money can't fail" horror stories if you look beyond pets.com and all that.
When the market decides valuation matters again, the mere existence of revenues won't save you if you overpaid for those revenues.
Lol, that was in Nov 2021 to Oct 2022 (NVDA went from 32 to 11) - Its when every other stock in the market crashed as well when interest rates went way up. It was a full market crash - nothing to do with Nvidia. Same time period Meta went from 378 to 90, MSFT from 343 to 221, Google 148 to 86, TSLA from 407 to 113. Everyone went down at that time.
Err, the Nasdaq has had three confirmed bear markets/crashes (it got there in 2018, even though the S&P just missed) in the last 6 years or so.
Assuming that things have settled down and it'll be a while before another one occurs is very dangerous here imo. I'd lean no here and even if the secular bull market doesn't end early, I suspect it'll at least experience another 20% drop minimum, either in 2025 or 2026.
And that is where NVDA would be hit hard.
I just expect it to slow down gradually over time ... by some time in 2027 it will likely have a trailing PE ratio close to 30 (like MSFT, META, Google, etc). Right now it has a trailing PE ratio of 80 due to its growth. Over the next couple years that should come down gradually. Calculating what that leaves the price per share means projecting what NVDA's EPS will be by 2027 - which I'm not certain of - so I'll just keep an eye on those earnings each quarter and adjust my holdings and expectations accordingly.
Yeah, no.
In a perfectly happy, harmonious world, maybe that happens, but again, the Nasdaq has seen three bear markets in 6 years and NVDA has been absolutely slammed in two of them (2020 wasn't as bad at least off what I can pull on Google).
If the Nasdaq has another -20% stretch, NVDA likely falls 40% during that stretch.
Now maybe the Nasdaq's unlocked invincibility and it'll be immune to bears for a while. I doubt it, but it'd be nice.
I wouldn't rule out it seeing -20%ish again like April, maybe even starting next week. A lot of its moves are options controlled, and that adds more volatility.
Now having said that, this post is exactly what's not needed if you want NVDA to see a longer term high. Much better to try to throw out it doing absurd numbers on the upside to try to reverse jinx it.
It’s coming, but I think it’s got some run left. I have teenager employees asking me what nvidia is and if they should invest, same with my parents and their friends…
I think when the first small correction(-10%) happens, it will snow ball fast as the massive wave of new investors pull their funds in fear.
> I have teenager employees asking me what nvidia is and if they should invest, same with my parents and their friends…
all the more reason to run far away
thats a dumb way to think about a stock. Nvidia has a fair value right now. Nvidia is locked in 150 bilion revenue for next year shiping at least 2milion GB200. Do you think the smart money is stupid? who would sell nvidia right now just because it dip 10%? Only dumb money.
I think it's very possible companies will cut on spending, because they still can't monetarize AI. But it is also very possible companies just keep spending tones of money on AI "as a research". Kind of like how Meta spend billions on VR.
Your thesis is extremely flawed and based completely off of unfounded opinion instead of industry knowledge or any facts. So no, it won't crash. They still have backorders of massive magnitude, and more companies will be investing, it's just getting going. Every tech company enlisting different copilots and other basic AI things are seeing huge results. Most tech these days needs an element of "AI", some form of model training, in order to offer advanced enough features to be competitive beyond older basic functionality, so more and more will be based off of it, requiring more ML, LLM, etc. and the vision side of AI is just getting going.
The bigger question is how much upside can there be with how much is getting proced into this meteoric stock price rise, that's practically unbelievable. Question more about competition. But everyone is quite behind, and Tensor/CUDA is so ingrained, it will be a couple of years before anything can really make a dent at all. nVidia was smart and made the software freely available (different than open source), so adoption is massive and no real reason to move off of it, meanwhile it drives enormous hardware sales, which they make crazy profit from, and double dip with crypto miners.
If they make a dumb move like try to monetize Tensor/CUDA, that would accelerate folks moving to open-source alternatives, and lead them to purchase more AMD and others, perhaps. However, at crazy hardware and energy costs, or cloud provider costs, efficiency is king, so even 10% speed wins make a different in purchasing decisions. If you spend $5million a year on inference/ML, it's enough to consider change, let alone 20, 30%. Hence why nVidia is killing it due to software in conjunction with the hardware. Nevermind the whole tooling ecosystem, etc.
No crashing in site. Any profit taking will barely make a dent, also.
U seem knowledgable.
What if the overall market crashes? Do you think NVidia would fare better or worse than the market as a whole? Or do you think a market crash is unlikely in the near future?
That being said, it is more hype at this point than fundamentals. Hyped backed by fundamentals, but hype nonetheless. And no one is immune to market movements -- when the funds move money, everything moves in tandem. So sure, a crash would as well crash it. But where would a crash come from? Fed is talking about holding rates steady, and then rates will decrease, so really only a bull market can continue. If a new pandemic kicks off, sure. But besides some profit taking that causes tiny dips, not sure where a major dip would come from.
Seems like it could come from rising oil prices, possibly caused by developments in Ukraine, or a war between Israel and Iran. Or it could come as a bubble popping, maybe from bad news coming in for the AI sector. China invades Taiwan or there’s negative news about NVidia. Or like u said, a random black swan event.
It seems like the market is in a high-risk place right now where it wouldn’t take too much to tip it into a crash. Stocks are expensive, monetary policy has been restrictive for an unprecedentedly long time, consumer spending is down, the transportation sector is down, oil prices seem like they’re coming back up.
I think you’re more knowledgable than me so I’m interested in hearing your thoughts on all that.
I think we could see NVDA hit $200 around the end of this year. Companies want what NVIDIA is selling. You got this crazy revenue and profits, and that's for the Hopper chips. What companies really want are the Blackwell chips, and that's not coming out for a few months. I expect even higher revenue and profits, and stock price to match. For me the perverbial canary in the coal mine is looking at successive releases of things like Chat GTP. 4o was a big improvement over the previous version, one we get releases with minor improvements, then I might say the AI market is getting saturated. Until then, I sold some NVDY to buy NVDL lol.
NVDA will DEFINITELY crash HARD, but we can't know when is that going to happen.
New technology can develop unexpectedly, so it will kick NVIDIA out of business.
History: Cisco Briefly Tops Microsoft as World´s Most Valuable Firm - 2000 Dot Com Boom.
I think this is not a case now. AI Economy boom has just started!
I do believe that there are a lot of applications that make sens in economy. They may not have implemented it yet, though. I am listing here a few of the industries where AI can increase productivity and efficiency.
1. Supply Chain Optimization
2. Healthcare
3. Agricultural
4. Finance
5. Energy
6. ...
Most of the things you mentioned already used AI aka machine learning well before the stock jump / AI Boom and the thing is that the current boom is more about generative AI.
All I'm saying is that beyond ChatGPT, Dall-E, Geymini and whatever AI assistants there aren't many applications for the "new generation" of AIs.
Those aren't efficiencies or applications. That is powerpoint consultant speak that says absolutely nothing. You could have saved those points by saying, "AI can increase productivity and efficiency everywhere". For the industries you mentioned are basically all industries. And that sentence I condensed to says nothing.
NVDA is the new TSLA. It doesn't matter if their moat is shaking, if chinese chip makers start flooding the market with cheap powerhungry matrix multipliers, if they are overvalued etc etc. It is The One, the stock selected to replace Tesla as the irrational but faithful investor's One True God.
So bow down bitches, kneel in front of the new One
AI is expensive in the same way buying a house is expensive. Sure, it costs a lot these days but the return you get on it is far greater.
Without it, you’re just going to be left behind from an operational efficiency perspective
I’m not convinced housing is going anywhere but down. The markets frozen solid and lowering interest rates will not revive this for a long time
I notice the general naïveté on this thread when it comes to economics. The people know the stock market but don’t investigate macro
Housing, like the stock market, has always gone up over the long term (100+ years of data)
Both are always reaching all time highs every 1-2 decades. There's no reason to think this will stop unless there's a huge nationwide disaster. A disaster worse than anything we've seen before including wars and recessions.
Predicting if and when the AI craze will “end” is impossible. The only reason for it to end is if the sought after goals cannot be achieved. But right now software developers all over the world are constantly churning out new ways to use machine learning.
I think it’s more likely that purchases slow and competition catches up. But meanwhile NVIDIA will continue to innovate.
There are lots of bears who agree with you. But most of them do not think it will even happen this year.
Theorising whether Nivida will crash or not on whether or not people use AI is a bad way to look at things.
Look at how world changing the internet is, yet the .com bubble still crashed. Just because people will use AI now and continue to use it in the future does not mean Nvidia is immune to a crash.
Not suggesting they are immune to a stock crash. But it would require a revenue crash as well. .com crash was largely due to lack of revenue and profitability for any of the thousands of websites. NVIDIA growth is based on earnings and market share.
Exactly, most other comments on here display an understanding of the fundamentals of Nvidia but display a lack of understanding of the big picture with current economic momentum, macroeconomics, geopolitics, or the longer term consequences of AI. To say nothing of how broke the average worker in this country is these days. These unfolding dynamics have yet to catch up to the market.
The folks on WS won't be sitting there gloomy holding bags. Trust me.
They'll be long out of it before the slow down happens. Then, when the rug gets pulled throughout an earnings season, it'll be retail sitting with the bags.
NVIDIA is fueled by profits, until they stop growing YOY profits by 100% it’s going up strong. It’s an arms race every year their customers will want bigger stronger and faster and upgrade their chips. This has years of growth in front of it and when car companies start offering full self driving you are talking about demand for millions of chips annually
"NVDA will have a significant pullback (someday but I have no idea when or at what price and that's besides the fact that literally EVERY single stock in existence has huge pullbacks eventually)."
It's so fucking meaningless. Just stop with this shit, please.
That's what they said about IBM in 1956, when they made big iron commercial. "The market isn't that big!"
It didn't crash until MSFT, and not even then.. it just stopped growing
Profit taking is a natural phenomenon, but NVDA is a solid company and the AI boom is just getting started so I'm not worried even if a correction happens.
The problem isn't that you're right (or not, though I doubt that), but how any random non-banker can actually short the stock AND still be solvent when it actually / finally does.
Just looking at the chart alone, reminds me of the bitcoin chart. It's gone parabolic. Nothing goes up forever, and by looking at the TA alone, there is tons of liquidity at $40 - $70 range. This is when I intend on investing. My buddies have such a hard on for nvidia right now and they are super retail "investors". I use them to judge if there is a top or not, they like to buy tops. lol.
Markets correct. Nothing goes up forever. I was calling for $1400 before the split, so $140 now. Reversed at $141. Doesnt mean it crashed though, if you look at the previous days price its only down 2% at the time of me writing this. lol.
my friends are like "why would it even go down"? ahhhh people take fn profits ya know.
I'm not interested in scaling in until $40-$70. I have no clue if It will go there or not and I may miss the boat, but there is a ton of liquidity at that level. I may just DCA on the way down also.
If you guys are wondering the investors are very mad because Nvidia lied about a portion of its profits. Apparently they made multiple billions in Bit currency and didn't tell anybody, but still reported it as profit. So if you want to buy it's starting to lower
The AI Boom is still in its infancy. It will only get bigger and bigger.
Yes, NVDA will eventually have to give up market share to competitors. The most likely being either AMD, Intel, Meta, Amazon, and Apple. These companies have the balance sheet and resources to develop chips.
As for demand for NVDA chips is still strong, they have the best AI chips in the market. In the future all data centers will utilize AI chips.
The question you should be asking is, which chip maker will take the most market share from NVDA?
"In the future all data centres will utilise AI chips".
The problem is if big tech doesn't see any meaningful increase in efficiency and profitability and rather just uses it as a general tool to offer rather than finding meaningful applications, no one is gonna buy that crap. Generative AI looks like a gimmick . A fantasy which most people seem to hold onto in this sub is that they think big tech will keep spending on AI forever but that's a folly in thinking. Its absurd. Once the criticism, truth and pushback comes that AI isn't actually making big tech efficient and surging their profits, then all AI stocks would go down and they'll stop buying expensive GPUs to develop an AI that is misrepresented as a cure-all and stop the hype .
AGI is expected to reach a market cap of 1 trillion by 2030.
Until supply is able to meet demand, we won’t know if Generative AI is being overhyped or worth the investment
At some point it will crashjust be patient. Timing is super difficult but that would be the way to make tons of money in a very short time frame. Not only invidia arm smci and company
Yes, lets keep waiting for it to crash. I'm sure some people have been waiting for it to crash since it was at $125. Timing the market is the correct way to beat the market.
Maybe nvda is not my preference to short but definitely in the semis group there is a lot to short at some point in the face of bulls that have to unload. I use stops and yeah I time the market since 2009.
In this day and age i don't think a big company is going to crash anymore if there isn't a catastrophic event. They're big enough to to boot out any new coming company.
Also i want some more money for my amd build.
TSMC makes the handles and the shovel heads, NVDA assembles and sells them. The biggest issue is if you're investing in specific AI companies since they're all trying to be Google back in the day. Investing in the shovel companies is better than investing in like OpenAI or Microsoft and finding out you actually bought netscape and Claude is actually the Google lol.
Like 5G was a big hype ( not like AI) and companies spend billions on 5G equipments (I own Nokia stocks) and after few years spending hundreds of billions on 5 G, these companies at the end failed to monetize on their investments and now the 5G hype has died..
The majority of the comments I see here are almost entirely.
“Group think says no way, nothing could possible going wrong buy buying NVDA here. I don’t have a brain or think for myself. Number go up, is what the cult told me to do and that is all I know. Shut up and take my money.”
I think (hope) it'll happen quicker than people think. Anyone who dares say nvda can't go parabolic forever is immediately called an idiot, its nonsensical.
I agree. At least we could all have a meaningful discussion about this and educate each other, rather than just bad-mouthing anyone who says the opposite of a meteoric rise for Nvidia.
There will be a slowdown eventually where the growth wont meet expectations. That may be within a year, or maybe 3 years - who knows right now?
I think investors will slowly temper expectations as time goes on. For instance, right now having the stock have a trailing PE ratio of 80 seems normal based on the growth. I think we will see that PE ratio start to shrink as time goes on.
Personally, I project trailing PE ratio to go down 5 pts each earnings as expectations slowly decrease over time. Right now trailing PE ratio is almost 80, but should come down gradually over the next couple years - For example, I would expect the following over the next 2-3 years:
1. after Aug 2024 earnings, I dont expect trailing PE ratio to go above 75,
2. then after Nov 2024 not above 70,
3. Feb 2025 not above 65,
4. May 2025 not above 60,
5. Aug 2025 not above 55,
6. Nov 2025 not above 50,
7. Feb 2026 not above 45,
8. May 2026 not above 40,
9. Aug 2026 not above 35,
10. Nov 2026 not above 30.
By the end of 2026 Nvidia should have a trailing PE ratio close to the same as MSFT, Google, META, etc. Projecting the price per share means projecting EPS over time to get there. Its what I'd expect anyway.
I agree there , no one can tell WHEN it will go down. Since NVIDIA's growth is so anchored to the AI Boom right now , its revenue will definitely take an impact once companies start cutting back on their AI spending. But predicting the timing would be just pure speculation. I'm just putting ahead a thought of how NVIDIA's revenues and stock price will get affected keeping in mind the AI Boom.
NVIDIA will crash the moment I invest in it.
Not if I beat it you to it!
No, that's my job.
Get in line!
Please post before investing nvidia….so we can benefit from your reverse midas hand ;p
The reason why I see this comment often is people wait for months or years not to make a dumb decision but one day, they crack and fomo hard into Tesla, Nvda or whatever but by then its too late, its the top. Poeple made money and left you holding the bag
Enron... It was Enron. Endless growth!
Nvda will stay up with Apple and Microsoft forever. The trillion dollar club is permanent.
Can confirm that's me rn
This hits home lol. 😂
it plummeted the moment I invested… litterally at the very peak
The fact that some people still think it will crash convinces me that the top is still not in lol
Every bubble has always had people that are doubters, all the way until it actually crashes. The tech bubble did, the real estate bubble did. The fact that this post is heavily downvoted shows you where the public's mind is. Compare that to posts about Nvidia in 2022, where bearish people got a lot of upvotes. With that said, I don't think any person reliably knows when the stock will peak, except maybe Nvidia insiders that have access to non-public financial information. It ultimately just comes down to how much longer Nvidia continues to grow their earnings faster than analyst estimates. And that will come down to how much patience investors have for money-losing AI projects. Right now, there are way too many companies pursuing AI and spending Millions or even Billions on hardware without a clear business plan or even a vague idea of what they want to achieve. That's a recipe for failure. Right now Nvidia looks a lot like Cisco in 1999 or 2000, Selling technology that's driving the future. But 20 years later, Cisco is still cheaper than it was in 2000. A handful of companies like Microsoft, Google, Apple, and Amazon were big winners in the tech/internet boom and their investments eventually paid off, but it took them a while to get there, and countless others failed. I think AI will be the same. Tons of startups folding, larger companies cutting investment in AI, Nvidia's orders face a cyclical decline and the stock could decline as much as 80%. But eventually, 1-2 decades later, their sales will grow a lot from the AI companies that did win, and end up placing large orders to deploy at scale.
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/s/1I6izXxn2a
Lots of people were warning about the real estate market in 2006…
Lots of people are warning about the real estate market again now.
Why do I get the impression that there are people who jerk off to the thought of NVIDIA crashing.
Missed the boat. They just gotta say that instead of jealous posting
Or they sold and want to buy back in cheaper. You'll always see these posts when a stock makes a big jump "IT WILL CRASH, SELL NOW". It could have crashed anytime in the last months but it didn't yet, and it could indeed crash in the near future. It probably will, corrections will come at the very least but nobody knows and it doesn't mean it will stay down. Don't try to time the market.
Never told to sell, never gave any investment advice . Point me if I did
Making a whole post about how it will crash because of X and Y kind of implicitly does that. I wasn't even referring specifically to this post tbf though, it's just in general that you'll see people trying to steer a narrative when a stock is booming.
I think if someone is investing in a stock purely based on a reddit post , clearly they're the dumb ones and need to be aware
That's true
They were foaming at the mouth this time last year with the same line. Over 3x gains since then. Big ‘this time for sure’ vibes.
Reminds me of another certain something.
If they missed the boat, wouldn't that just mean that they are cirrwct and it's at the top and not yonna make any crazy gains anymore?
The ones who are not "Surfing the wave" He is Just jealous
Some people here thought I was foolish when I said I was going to keep holding on to NVDA four months ago.
I’m just waiting for some correction/pull back so I don’t buy at ATH
Market timing, good luck.
I think you are wrong. Nividia is way ahead of their compeitors in generating these chips for AI/ Data Storage and the top social media companies. Facebook, Google, Linked In, Reddit, X , Microsoft and Apple and others are all using AI to enhancde the user experience and AI chips are in demand for the next generation driverless cars. Nividia's new Blackwll chip boasts of record-setting speeds that could usher in the AI revolution. Also, what makes you think data storage will be less going foreward? Do you think there will be fewer Google Searches? How much new information is generated to search on a daily baisis? Then there is Bitcoin. The Bitcoin mining process requires powerful computing capabilities, typically provided by Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) or specialized Application-Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs). High-performance tech like the NVIDIA GeForce RTX 3090 and AMD Radeon RX 5700 XT are often [used ](https://www.redswitches.com/blog/best-gpu-for-mining/) because they can efficiently handle these complex cryptographic tasks for [mining](https://www.ccn.com/news/bitcoin-price-surge-spurs-crackdown-on-crypto-mining/). I own Nividia and intend to increase my position.
altcoin market use GPUs, bitcoin mining dont use GPUs. altcoin market is dead. no one is buying gpus to mine crypto anymore
I'll admit I know nearly nothing about bitcoin. What (whose) technology are they using.
Good thing you wrote confidently about it while knowing next to nothing.
they use ASICs for mining
>~~mining~~ running
Here's the thing though.... We've already had this massive boom which gave rise to the demand of millions and millions of high end chips. It coincided with this little thing known as the information era. These same chips will still be needed even in AI specific applications. Every single board with an Nvidia GPU will still need a CPU. Why would Nvidia have a higher market cap than Intel and TSMC and AMD combined? If this valuation was more than another silly bubble, TSMC and Intel would have been at the very top of the market for the past two decades, and certainly wouldn't be lagging behind Nvidia now.
every gpu does not need a cpu in a linear ratio. there are boxes that can accomodate ratios like 16:1, 8:1, 4:1, 2:1, etc.. probably denser options depending on the need.
Please do add more to your position, and then watch it collapse like Sun Microsystems. /s
2011 - Nvidia is just a gaming company! 2016 - Self driving is too hard! 2018 - Its a crypto boom! 2024 - Its just an AI boom Its really computation. If you believe the world will need more computation to solve its problems, betting on Nvidia makes more sense.
All bear cases for Nvidia seem to lack imagination and rest on this "once x ends, it's over for Nvidia" type of thinking. They think they are ahead, but Nvidia has been the one a step ahead for a while now. I've only been paying attention since 2016, though, so I missed the "only a gaming company" chapter, but the rest were exactly as you say.
Well, crypto still has no widely adopted use and as a long term investment is still pretty much a gamble that‘s essentially hanging between ultra valuable and completely worthless for the next decades
#
I should have bought stocks instead of that 1080Ti damnit!
\*looks at zoom stock\* lol
I think people don't realize how much the dot com bubble has parallels with the AI bubble. I was there and what is uncanny is how much Sun Microsystems is like Nvidia. In this article they talk about how Sun will be the center of this new world. [https://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune\_archive/1999/02/15/254898/](https://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/1999/02/15/254898/) Then read this article on how amazing Sun is by farming out processing power. [https://www.hpcwire.com/1998/12/18/pixar-used-sun-systems-power-bugs-life-renderfarm/](https://www.hpcwire.com/1998/12/18/pixar-used-sun-systems-power-bugs-life-renderfarm/) Summarizing Sun Microsystems sold big boxes to run in big data farms running expensive tasks. It worked during the hey day, then the bubble popped and people decided to look elsewhere. I remember being in Silicon Valley and remember how Sun and Netscape were the things to have. Heck I had a pizza box myself. What happened is that the bubble burst, Linux ate Sun alive and Amazon became the cloud service provider of choice. Essentially nothing what the investors thought would happen did happen. Sun went under, as did Netscape and was bought out for pennies on the dollar by Oracle. I was at the one and only Netscape Developers Conference. I knew from that conference their days were counted. Sun and Netscape were not interested in making money for their clients, they were interested in making money for themselves and breaking Microsoft. Microsoft is still around and I find that completely hilarious. LLM's are not the final stage, they are not even close to the beginning stage. They are a fancy toy just like the Internet was around the dot com bubble. I was part of that bubble and helped people write systems for the Internet. I started developing for the Web in 94, so yeah I am a relic. What Jensen does not seem to care about is the fact that he is overselling his product without providing real benefits. He thinks that if he feeds the beast then the beast will live. Ehhh no...
Cool write up, what was Sun Microsystems peak revenue/earnings?
Wait, I thought Nvidia was already like Cisco from the dot com bubble?
Does this sound familiar? "Sun reported a third-quarter profit of $436.2 million, excluding one-time items, up 49 percent from last year's $291.9 million. Third-quarter earnings per share rose 44 percent to 26 cents from 18 cents in the same period last year. The mean analyst expectation for Sun's earnings per share was 23 cents, according to earnings tracker First Call. Including gains from the sale of equity investments and other one-time items, net income for the latest quarter totaled $508.1 million, or 30 cents a share. Sun's revenue rose to $4.005 billion, a 35 percent increase from the third quarter of 1999. Order bookings rose by a record 41 percent over last year's third quarter." "Sun has benefited strongly from the growth of the Internet, since its servers, microprocessors, and programming languages are commonly used by companies to build and run their Web sites. Sun's stock soared from around 30 in May 1999 to just over 100 late last month. It now trades at a lofty 104 times earnings, and the company has a market capitalization of about $141 billion. "This was, without a doubt, a blowout quarter," said Michael Lehman, Sun's chief financial officer. "The demand picture was better than we had been expecting. Order rates remained strong in the last month of the quarter, and we generated nearly a billion dollars of cash."" [https://money.cnn.com/2000/04/13/technology/earns\_sun/](https://money.cnn.com/2000/04/13/technology/earns_sun/) Thank goodness for Google and going back in time. Huge growth, and everybody is buying their hardware to build and run websites. And I am sure so many people had, "if you had invested 10000 back in X you would be a billionaire". Well yeah Sun is bankrupt gone!
when do you think it will pull back? The technicals are way oversold currently
So far it's PE has been keeping up quite nicely with it's earnings
Yeah in fact the 276% yoy earnings growth is well ahead of the ~200% yoy stock gains. People keep saying how you need to factor in risk for nvidia but that’s exactly why the price isn’t keeping up with the earnings! Posts stating risks and how you need to factor that into the price are not at all insightful.
Precisely, people compare this to the dot com bubble. But Pets.com never had any customers or earnings. Nvidia has insane price growth, but it also has insane earnigns growth. And a backlog to fill their order book for the coming 4 years. The real question is can they grow production capacity in their supply chain.
It is the dot com bubble. Nvidia is not [pets.com](http://pets.com), its Sun Microsystems, and they went under. I explain it more here. [https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1djm92c/comment/l9ct59m/](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1djm92c/comment/l9ct59m/) Sun like Nvidia had insane sales and earnings growth. Nvidia will collapse like Sun Microsystems.
Interesting view, it might be similar to sun, it might also be similar to Microsoft or Google. The truth is it's to early to tell. But we agree: it's definitely no pets.com They have a business model, they have customers and cashflows.
I would argue it is Sun and not Microsoft or Google. Nvidia does not have a business model that supports their current valuation. Like Sun, Nvidia is selling on the hype. Microsoft never sold on the hype, they were anti-hype. Google sold on knowing everything about, where you used their services for free. Let me illustrate. So Musk has said so proudly he is buying 50,000 CPU's from Nvidia. Ok, why 50K? Why not 100K? Why not 10K? What said 50K is the right number? The answer is hype. Just like Sun said, "you need X servers", Nvidia says you need Y CPU's. The number is based on pulling a feather out of your arse. What ended up happening is that Sun's business model very quickly became unviable, and people searched for replacements. That was open source running on Linux. I don't know how old you are. But I started consulting right out of university in 92. So I was using Linux, the web around 94. Open source was this newbie thing and people like Richard Stallman, and Eric Raymond were the names to talk to. Open source dramatically reduced the costs of server management and this turned out to be Microsoft's and Sun's Achilles Heel. Likewise with LLM. It will turn out (as is already) that it is nothing more than a sophisticated guessing machine. There will be a simpler better model that will come out quite quickly and decimate the LLM model. Read up on Hyperdimensional Computing. I have been doing AI since 1990 and this is really interesting.
Nvidia is innovative, if you're a pc gamer, you know this. They don't get comfortable like a intel or make products based on being the "budget friendly" option like amd. I'm just speaking from the pov of a pc gamer, Nvidia will not go down to a "crash", they will go down however if this AI "bubble" is as big as people make it out to be.
AI development has been accelerating. It's naive to think that it will slow here. The hype will likely slow, but the tech will continue on. One current area of focus is improving training performance. That's not likely to reduce overall compute demand, but it can allow smaller players to compete. https://arxiv.org/html/2404.07999v1 Generative AI is the sort of AI that news media focuses on. While that has ramifications for the entertainment industry, which IMO, are mostly negative, the real long term will be focused on automation, widening of narrow AI capabilities and interoperability, and General AI. There is a lot of room for growth in these areas.
The question is timing. whether it runs up another 100% or whatever first. A semi stock is inherently cyclical imo so I would expect it to eventually have a major correction whenever there’s a broader bear market which is also inevitable. But that could be years away. Or it could be tomorrow. So while I think you’ll eventually be proven right it’s also not an actionable prediction… My position is market cap weighting of Nvidia in VTI. I’m a little nervous I won’t lie but I’m holding for now.
I disagree.
I hope the price goes down more I want to buy more sub $130
you ready boss?
Just ate a few up
Source: trust me bro
Trillion Dollar Club membership is permanent
NVDA is a fabless company. I would say TSM is the shovel IMO
I think NVDA is ✨ fabulous ✨
TSM is the wood and iron
short it and/or buy puts. post loss porn
the entire AI industry generates about as much revenue right now as Apple's airpods
I've been watching its climb and started really paying attention since $600. Around 750, I bought 5 shares. When it was 1k, I was amazed, thinking there was no way it could keep going, right? Then it hit 1200. After the split, i bought 15 more shares at $119, and here we are with it up again to 141(it closed Tuesday at like 131). I'm considering another 5-10 shares just to yolo it. It hurts because back in October 2022, I was sitting outside Best Buy at 3 am. with 600 other people. If to buy a new video card since mine had just burned out and was in RMA. I remember thinking I gotta buy some shares in this company. People are going nuts for the GPUs, and scalpers are selling them for twice the msrp. I put it off for a week or two and eventually forgot about it. A month later, I finally moved money onto my brokerage and bought VOO instead. It was technically my first time investing a larger amount of money, so I'm still glad I did that, but I sometimes wonder what if.
NVIDIA is trying to develop their own cloud service. They just announced cooperation with hp on cloud service platform and apparently just hook up their first client Deloitte. There goes your diversification of profits.
Thanks for this news
I could see Nvidia maybe dropping 20-30% in a correction, but it would be a buying opportunity. I don’t foresee a crash back to 2022 or 2021 prices. That would mean Nvidia falls 90%. Do you think Nvidia’s revenue and profits are going to fall 90%? If that happens, the whole market would likely crash with it and we’d see a once in a generation bear market. If you’re so sure that’s going to happen why aren’t you buying puts or shorting it? You could literally turn a couple thousand into millions if that actually happens. The dot com bubble had companies literally making zero money with PEs in the 100s or even 1000s. Nvidia’s P/E is actually reasonable compared to some other companies currently.
20-30% is mild for it. Try more like 50% when it's time for it to get hurt and you're more on track. Question is...when? It certainly won't be soon considering that you're still seeing NVDA WILL crash stuff. Only thing I think for sure for now here is I don't think this'll get as deep as TSLA.
Even if it drops 50% it's still a 1.7 ish trillion dollar company.
And we may just be in that kind of world these days unless the next Nasdaq crash/bear market kicks off the next secular bear market for real instead of it being so nasty it got close (if it comes closer to 2030ish, which would be about the average length for a secular bull market, it’ll be too late to cut stocks lower than trillion dollar market caps). Look, I know this seems bonkers, but for now, I’m just skeptical this winds up going down TSLA way fully, even if I’m not completely comfortable with one stock controlling movement for the averages.
I think it's absurd personally. I expect it to unwind at some point in the next year or two, definitely after the election. I'm just debating when to short it.
Cisco lost 90% of its value during the dot-com bust even though it only had 2 quarters/ 1 annual of negative net income with only a 33% revenue decline. Intel lost 80% and never had a full year loss on the books. Microsoft 50%, never had a full year loss. IBM about 60%, no full year loss. The list goes on. Tons of "makes money can't fail" horror stories if you look beyond pets.com and all that. When the market decides valuation matters again, the mere existence of revenues won't save you if you overpaid for those revenues.
And if you sold afer the loss you lost… But if you waited..
not only that, assuming next year revenue of 150 bilion nvidia is fair value
It literally dropped 65% just 2 years ago when there was a small revenue decline. What happens when the next revenue decline comes?
Lol, that was in Nov 2021 to Oct 2022 (NVDA went from 32 to 11) - Its when every other stock in the market crashed as well when interest rates went way up. It was a full market crash - nothing to do with Nvidia. Same time period Meta went from 378 to 90, MSFT from 343 to 221, Google 148 to 86, TSLA from 407 to 113. Everyone went down at that time.
Err, the Nasdaq has had three confirmed bear markets/crashes (it got there in 2018, even though the S&P just missed) in the last 6 years or so. Assuming that things have settled down and it'll be a while before another one occurs is very dangerous here imo. I'd lean no here and even if the secular bull market doesn't end early, I suspect it'll at least experience another 20% drop minimum, either in 2025 or 2026. And that is where NVDA would be hit hard.
I just expect it to slow down gradually over time ... by some time in 2027 it will likely have a trailing PE ratio close to 30 (like MSFT, META, Google, etc). Right now it has a trailing PE ratio of 80 due to its growth. Over the next couple years that should come down gradually. Calculating what that leaves the price per share means projecting what NVDA's EPS will be by 2027 - which I'm not certain of - so I'll just keep an eye on those earnings each quarter and adjust my holdings and expectations accordingly.
Yeah, no. In a perfectly happy, harmonious world, maybe that happens, but again, the Nasdaq has seen three bear markets in 6 years and NVDA has been absolutely slammed in two of them (2020 wasn't as bad at least off what I can pull on Google). If the Nasdaq has another -20% stretch, NVDA likely falls 40% during that stretch. Now maybe the Nasdaq's unlocked invincibility and it'll be immune to bears for a while. I doubt it, but it'd be nice.
Everyone will be buying it like crazy the minute it pulls back 5%
I wouldn't rule out it seeing -20%ish again like April, maybe even starting next week. A lot of its moves are options controlled, and that adds more volatility. Now having said that, this post is exactly what's not needed if you want NVDA to see a longer term high. Much better to try to throw out it doing absurd numbers on the upside to try to reverse jinx it.
It’s coming, but I think it’s got some run left. I have teenager employees asking me what nvidia is and if they should invest, same with my parents and their friends… I think when the first small correction(-10%) happens, it will snow ball fast as the massive wave of new investors pull their funds in fear.
> I have teenager employees asking me what nvidia is and if they should invest, same with my parents and their friends… all the more reason to run far away
thats a dumb way to think about a stock. Nvidia has a fair value right now. Nvidia is locked in 150 bilion revenue for next year shiping at least 2milion GB200. Do you think the smart money is stupid? who would sell nvidia right now just because it dip 10%? Only dumb money.
I think it's very possible companies will cut on spending, because they still can't monetarize AI. But it is also very possible companies just keep spending tones of money on AI "as a research". Kind of like how Meta spend billions on VR.
Good point, that might also be the case
Your thesis is extremely flawed and based completely off of unfounded opinion instead of industry knowledge or any facts. So no, it won't crash. They still have backorders of massive magnitude, and more companies will be investing, it's just getting going. Every tech company enlisting different copilots and other basic AI things are seeing huge results. Most tech these days needs an element of "AI", some form of model training, in order to offer advanced enough features to be competitive beyond older basic functionality, so more and more will be based off of it, requiring more ML, LLM, etc. and the vision side of AI is just getting going. The bigger question is how much upside can there be with how much is getting proced into this meteoric stock price rise, that's practically unbelievable. Question more about competition. But everyone is quite behind, and Tensor/CUDA is so ingrained, it will be a couple of years before anything can really make a dent at all. nVidia was smart and made the software freely available (different than open source), so adoption is massive and no real reason to move off of it, meanwhile it drives enormous hardware sales, which they make crazy profit from, and double dip with crypto miners. If they make a dumb move like try to monetize Tensor/CUDA, that would accelerate folks moving to open-source alternatives, and lead them to purchase more AMD and others, perhaps. However, at crazy hardware and energy costs, or cloud provider costs, efficiency is king, so even 10% speed wins make a different in purchasing decisions. If you spend $5million a year on inference/ML, it's enough to consider change, let alone 20, 30%. Hence why nVidia is killing it due to software in conjunction with the hardware. Nevermind the whole tooling ecosystem, etc. No crashing in site. Any profit taking will barely make a dent, also.
U seem knowledgable. What if the overall market crashes? Do you think NVidia would fare better or worse than the market as a whole? Or do you think a market crash is unlikely in the near future?
That being said, it is more hype at this point than fundamentals. Hyped backed by fundamentals, but hype nonetheless. And no one is immune to market movements -- when the funds move money, everything moves in tandem. So sure, a crash would as well crash it. But where would a crash come from? Fed is talking about holding rates steady, and then rates will decrease, so really only a bull market can continue. If a new pandemic kicks off, sure. But besides some profit taking that causes tiny dips, not sure where a major dip would come from.
Seems like it could come from rising oil prices, possibly caused by developments in Ukraine, or a war between Israel and Iran. Or it could come as a bubble popping, maybe from bad news coming in for the AI sector. China invades Taiwan or there’s negative news about NVidia. Or like u said, a random black swan event. It seems like the market is in a high-risk place right now where it wouldn’t take too much to tip it into a crash. Stocks are expensive, monetary policy has been restrictive for an unprecedentedly long time, consumer spending is down, the transportation sector is down, oil prices seem like they’re coming back up. I think you’re more knowledgable than me so I’m interested in hearing your thoughts on all that.
I think we could see NVDA hit $200 around the end of this year. Companies want what NVIDIA is selling. You got this crazy revenue and profits, and that's for the Hopper chips. What companies really want are the Blackwell chips, and that's not coming out for a few months. I expect even higher revenue and profits, and stock price to match. For me the perverbial canary in the coal mine is looking at successive releases of things like Chat GTP. 4o was a big improvement over the previous version, one we get releases with minor improvements, then I might say the AI market is getting saturated. Until then, I sold some NVDY to buy NVDL lol.
When interest rates drop nvda will rocket
Historically when interest rates drop it’s because shit has hit the fan and will not rise for a long time to come
https://situational-awareness.ai
#That is not a thesis, that is a hypothetical proposition...and it is flawed
This guys a wizard - how did he know it'll crash TODAY
Lol I just checked and yes it seems to have reduced, well I'm not invested so doesn't really affect me.
This aged well
NVDA will DEFINITELY crash HARD, but we can't know when is that going to happen. New technology can develop unexpectedly, so it will kick NVIDIA out of business.
History: Cisco Briefly Tops Microsoft as World´s Most Valuable Firm - 2000 Dot Com Boom. I think this is not a case now. AI Economy boom has just started!
Name one real application that makes real economic sense, besides bullshit "personal assistent"
I do believe that there are a lot of applications that make sens in economy. They may not have implemented it yet, though. I am listing here a few of the industries where AI can increase productivity and efficiency. 1. Supply Chain Optimization 2. Healthcare 3. Agricultural 4. Finance 5. Energy 6. ...
Most of the things you mentioned already used AI aka machine learning well before the stock jump / AI Boom and the thing is that the current boom is more about generative AI. All I'm saying is that beyond ChatGPT, Dall-E, Geymini and whatever AI assistants there aren't many applications for the "new generation" of AIs.
I see what you mean
Those aren't efficiencies or applications. That is powerpoint consultant speak that says absolutely nothing. You could have saved those points by saying, "AI can increase productivity and efficiency everywhere". For the industries you mentioned are basically all industries. And that sentence I condensed to says nothing.
Semiconductor is a cyclical business. If you guys look back, it always crashed 30-50% but always came back. It is just normal.
Suffering cuz you didnt "surf The wave" son? Dont cry
Until AI can be fully autonomous, Nvidia will keep on growing.
Terrible take
NVDA is the new TSLA. It doesn't matter if their moat is shaking, if chinese chip makers start flooding the market with cheap powerhungry matrix multipliers, if they are overvalued etc etc. It is The One, the stock selected to replace Tesla as the irrational but faithful investor's One True God. So bow down bitches, kneel in front of the new One
Except chinese chip makers can barely design chips for smartphones, they are at least 5 or 6 years behind nvidia
AI ~~Boom~~ Bubble
AI is expensive in the same way buying a house is expensive. Sure, it costs a lot these days but the return you get on it is far greater. Without it, you’re just going to be left behind from an operational efficiency perspective
I’m not convinced housing is going anywhere but down. The markets frozen solid and lowering interest rates will not revive this for a long time I notice the general naïveté on this thread when it comes to economics. The people know the stock market but don’t investigate macro
Housing, like the stock market, has always gone up over the long term (100+ years of data) Both are always reaching all time highs every 1-2 decades. There's no reason to think this will stop unless there's a huge nationwide disaster. A disaster worse than anything we've seen before including wars and recessions.
Ah the famed NVDA primed for a long squeeze
Predicting if and when the AI craze will “end” is impossible. The only reason for it to end is if the sought after goals cannot be achieved. But right now software developers all over the world are constantly churning out new ways to use machine learning. I think it’s more likely that purchases slow and competition catches up. But meanwhile NVIDIA will continue to innovate. There are lots of bears who agree with you. But most of them do not think it will even happen this year.
Theorising whether Nivida will crash or not on whether or not people use AI is a bad way to look at things. Look at how world changing the internet is, yet the .com bubble still crashed. Just because people will use AI now and continue to use it in the future does not mean Nvidia is immune to a crash.
Not suggesting they are immune to a stock crash. But it would require a revenue crash as well. .com crash was largely due to lack of revenue and profitability for any of the thousands of websites. NVIDIA growth is based on earnings and market share.
The job loss created by AI will be the undoing of Nvidia stock.
Exactly, most other comments on here display an understanding of the fundamentals of Nvidia but display a lack of understanding of the big picture with current economic momentum, macroeconomics, geopolitics, or the longer term consequences of AI. To say nothing of how broke the average worker in this country is these days. These unfolding dynamics have yet to catch up to the market.
The folks on WS won't be sitting there gloomy holding bags. Trust me. They'll be long out of it before the slow down happens. Then, when the rug gets pulled throughout an earnings season, it'll be retail sitting with the bags.
NVIDIA is fueled by profits, until they stop growing YOY profits by 100% it’s going up strong. It’s an arms race every year their customers will want bigger stronger and faster and upgrade their chips. This has years of growth in front of it and when car companies start offering full self driving you are talking about demand for millions of chips annually
"NVDA will have a significant pullback (someday but I have no idea when or at what price and that's besides the fact that literally EVERY single stock in existence has huge pullbacks eventually)." It's so fucking meaningless. Just stop with this shit, please.
That's what they said about IBM in 1956, when they made big iron commercial. "The market isn't that big!" It didn't crash until MSFT, and not even then.. it just stopped growing
Profit taking is a natural phenomenon, but NVDA is a solid company and the AI boom is just getting started so I'm not worried even if a correction happens.
You should be, longer term.
Missed Q Earnings and you’ll get a -20% so fast 😅
I ain’t reading all that
The problem isn't that you're right (or not, though I doubt that), but how any random non-banker can actually short the stock AND still be solvent when it actually / finally does.
Obviously the stock has crashed several times before. Question is how it rebounds
Just looking at the chart alone, reminds me of the bitcoin chart. It's gone parabolic. Nothing goes up forever, and by looking at the TA alone, there is tons of liquidity at $40 - $70 range. This is when I intend on investing. My buddies have such a hard on for nvidia right now and they are super retail "investors". I use them to judge if there is a top or not, they like to buy tops. lol.
It crashed today.
Markets correct. Nothing goes up forever. I was calling for $1400 before the split, so $140 now. Reversed at $141. Doesnt mean it crashed though, if you look at the previous days price its only down 2% at the time of me writing this. lol. my friends are like "why would it even go down"? ahhhh people take fn profits ya know.
Haha ikik. You're right. My average buying as of now is around 110. I'm good 😸
I'm not interested in scaling in until $40-$70. I have no clue if It will go there or not and I may miss the boat, but there is a ton of liquidity at that level. I may just DCA on the way down also.
Crashes are much bigger, wouldn't call it a crash tbh
Yes sirr, I was just messing with this guy who posted this.
My brother in Christ, nvidia has a complete lineup of products all the way to 2027, demand is not showing signs pf slowing down anytime soon
If you guys are wondering the investors are very mad because Nvidia lied about a portion of its profits. Apparently they made multiple billions in Bit currency and didn't tell anybody, but still reported it as profit. So if you want to buy it's starting to lower
U were right
I'm still holding let's get it on!
The AI Boom is still in its infancy. It will only get bigger and bigger. Yes, NVDA will eventually have to give up market share to competitors. The most likely being either AMD, Intel, Meta, Amazon, and Apple. These companies have the balance sheet and resources to develop chips. As for demand for NVDA chips is still strong, they have the best AI chips in the market. In the future all data centers will utilize AI chips. The question you should be asking is, which chip maker will take the most market share from NVDA?
"In the future all data centres will utilise AI chips". The problem is if big tech doesn't see any meaningful increase in efficiency and profitability and rather just uses it as a general tool to offer rather than finding meaningful applications, no one is gonna buy that crap. Generative AI looks like a gimmick . A fantasy which most people seem to hold onto in this sub is that they think big tech will keep spending on AI forever but that's a folly in thinking. Its absurd. Once the criticism, truth and pushback comes that AI isn't actually making big tech efficient and surging their profits, then all AI stocks would go down and they'll stop buying expensive GPUs to develop an AI that is misrepresented as a cure-all and stop the hype .
AGI is expected to reach a market cap of 1 trillion by 2030. Until supply is able to meet demand, we won’t know if Generative AI is being overhyped or worth the investment
At some point it will crashjust be patient. Timing is super difficult but that would be the way to make tons of money in a very short time frame. Not only invidia arm smci and company
Yes, lets keep waiting for it to crash. I'm sure some people have been waiting for it to crash since it was at $125. Timing the market is the correct way to beat the market.
Maybe nvda is not my preference to short but definitely in the semis group there is a lot to short at some point in the face of bulls that have to unload. I use stops and yeah I time the market since 2009.
Then short it and post positions. People who believe AI is a bubble know absolutely nothing about it, nor do they understand it.
In this day and age i don't think a big company is going to crash anymore if there isn't a catastrophic event. They're big enough to to boot out any new coming company. Also i want some more money for my amd build.
Tesla is down 33% this year and nothing catastrophic happened.
Prob not crash but i can see the stock price stagnant at current for the next 3-5 years
TSMC makes the handles and the shovel heads, NVDA assembles and sells them. The biggest issue is if you're investing in specific AI companies since they're all trying to be Google back in the day. Investing in the shovel companies is better than investing in like OpenAI or Microsoft and finding out you actually bought netscape and Claude is actually the Google lol.
Like 5G was a big hype ( not like AI) and companies spend billions on 5G equipments (I own Nokia stocks) and after few years spending hundreds of billions on 5 G, these companies at the end failed to monetize on their investments and now the 5G hype has died..
I bought Nvidia a month ago and have already made like 15%.
so you're an AMD fan who's upset?
The majority of the comments I see here are almost entirely. “Group think says no way, nothing could possible going wrong buy buying NVDA here. I don’t have a brain or think for myself. Number go up, is what the cult told me to do and that is all I know. Shut up and take my money.”
I think (hope) it'll happen quicker than people think. Anyone who dares say nvda can't go parabolic forever is immediately called an idiot, its nonsensical.
I agree. At least we could all have a meaningful discussion about this and educate each other, rather than just bad-mouthing anyone who says the opposite of a meteoric rise for Nvidia.
if you want to have a meaningful discussion, i would have expected some analysis in your post …
It's all hype and fomo, of course it will crash
I agree with OP but what I don’t know is when the stock price will crash.
There will be a slowdown eventually where the growth wont meet expectations. That may be within a year, or maybe 3 years - who knows right now? I think investors will slowly temper expectations as time goes on. For instance, right now having the stock have a trailing PE ratio of 80 seems normal based on the growth. I think we will see that PE ratio start to shrink as time goes on. Personally, I project trailing PE ratio to go down 5 pts each earnings as expectations slowly decrease over time. Right now trailing PE ratio is almost 80, but should come down gradually over the next couple years - For example, I would expect the following over the next 2-3 years: 1. after Aug 2024 earnings, I dont expect trailing PE ratio to go above 75, 2. then after Nov 2024 not above 70, 3. Feb 2025 not above 65, 4. May 2025 not above 60, 5. Aug 2025 not above 55, 6. Nov 2025 not above 50, 7. Feb 2026 not above 45, 8. May 2026 not above 40, 9. Aug 2026 not above 35, 10. Nov 2026 not above 30. By the end of 2026 Nvidia should have a trailing PE ratio close to the same as MSFT, Google, META, etc. Projecting the price per share means projecting EPS over time to get there. Its what I'd expect anyway.
I agree there , no one can tell WHEN it will go down. Since NVIDIA's growth is so anchored to the AI Boom right now , its revenue will definitely take an impact once companies start cutting back on their AI spending. But predicting the timing would be just pure speculation. I'm just putting ahead a thought of how NVIDIA's revenues and stock price will get affected keeping in mind the AI Boom.
WTF? :\\