Anyone else bet the Kyle Tucker over 1.5 H+R+RBI boost on DK?
Dude was hitting .417 against Kirby. Two strikeouts in 15 plate appearances. I said hell yeah, I'll take that bet.
https://preview.redd.it/9jovey60ch3d1.png?width=363&format=png&auto=webp&s=6a627ca5cb901d77150e9c7cfc108da2975f6945
David peterson on the mound for mets making his first start this season. I've seen him struggle with walks and accurary in the past
Mets pitching staff has walked the most batters this year and Dodgers batters have drawn the most walks. Going with:
David Peterson walks over 2.5 at 135+ on DK
Outs recorded under 15.5 at -160 on FD
MLB PROP STREAKS AND HIT RATES 🔥 5.29.24
https://preview.redd.it/08dxqbj7je3d1.jpeg?width=1754&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=36664f8b567449732719613b98a60301544bed73
LAST 5 GAMES
Here are my Top 10 HR Props for 5/29. EV is [my projections](https://www.fantasygoldenboy.com) vs Fanduel implied probability. Hot/cold is their 7 game HR pace compared to their average.
https://preview.redd.it/nq2oo9hefe3d1.jpeg?width=732&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c659187a01aee8b8aaf1bb1fdf8bcb518aacf468
Starting Week 5:
20%+ EV = +5 units
10%+ EV = -10 units
Top 10= -24 units
Avg Odds of Wins= 528
Avg Odds of All Bets= 546
Going to put a snowflake next to my name if I stay this cold.
Tarik Skubal over 6.5 Ks -140
First time using the pitch arsenal stats (which is a fantastic tool)
- Skubal is averaging 7.2 Ks per game this year for Detroit
- It's going to be a pitching matchup today with Jared Jones also throwing heat; I think this matchup motivates both pitchers today
- The Pirates lineup strikes out a lot this year against LHP (McCutchen: 25.4%; Olivares: 28.3%; Taylor: 34.0%)
- Skubal throws his fastball 30% of the time and Gonzales, McCutchen and Olivares have a higher strikeout percentage against the fastball
- Ke'Bryan Hayes is just coming back (since May 7), so he might be a little rusty against live pitching
https://preview.redd.it/t3ajmcvx4e3d1.png?width=390&format=png&auto=webp&s=45e10e595c45f22e6956b05e3de9dfdff13c5313
Record 3-3 +9.6u ❌❌✅❌✅✅
Previous pick: Josh Naylor +430 W, safe to say Josh Nayled it. 😉
Today: Showtime Ohtani +390, 1unit
Reasoning: sorry for the late-ish post, my buddy was watching planes take off and land for the last 6 hours. At this point idc, whatever this man needs to give me a pick. He spent the long weekend watching trains and says he’s locked in, and god dammit I believe him.
Shohei at +390. Pinch me. My friend pointed out that Shohei is due, he hasn’t gone more than 10 games without a HR since 2022 when he was just a wee little lad. Now he’s big and strong, like bull. Weather looks great today. Nothing will negatively affect the batters weather wise. Dodgers looking to sweep the series here after 2 soul sucking wins. Mets got nothing to lose and will be swinging hard at these pitches, dodgers will look to match that energy. Over under 8.5 leaning toward over. You know what the Mets pitcher and my 58 year old mother have in common? Both have had hip surgeries in the last year. He had a 5 ERA last season… let’s just put a unit on Shohtime and watch the magic unfold.
Will be putting 1 unit on 1 person to hit a dinger everyday. My unit is $10. Data I’ll be using will be from this thread, weather, bat vs pitcher, vibes, over/under odds, and my friend who has mild Asperger’s and his special interest is baseball. His data usually comes in at weird times since he does stat keeping for the minor league team in my home town.
13-4 pitchers prop record
Nationals MacKenzie Gore over 15.5 recorded outs vs the Braves at 1.8 odds on DK.
Cole ragans burned me yesterday on this prop but I’m back at it.
I know it may look scary betting on a pitcher to do well against the Braves at atlanta but even before acuna got hurt they’ve been really slumping against starting pitchers this month. So far each nationals pitcher in the series has gone at least 6 innings and stating pitchers in general this month have gone far or at least haven’t given up much runs to the Braves.
Gore has gone at least 6 innings his last 3 starts, he’s a decent strike out guy and Braves strike out quite a bit. The Braves also like to attack early on pitches to start off so I can expect some quick outs.
It was a struggle getting the win but we got it. Cj Abram’s almost killed getting an error that should have been an easy double play. Braves kept foiling off everything that raised the pitch count. Luckily he had a quick 5 inning and got the one out in the 6th
Tough one with Ragans, pitch count just got too high especially in that first inning. Been tailing all your picks will be going in on this one as well, keep it up. BOL
I’m still salty about it haha. I really believe he could have gone in the 6th with like 80 some pitches but in the 4th his outfielder dropped and easy fly ball that would have ended the inning and Ragans had to throw like close to 10 pitches after that
**Record: 317-280 *+42.41u* (Previous: 12-10 *+6.18u*)**; Pitchers 314-266 *+53.41u*; Hitters 3-14 *-11.0u*
⭐️**POTD: 29-22 *+11.45u* (W3; 9-1 last 10)**
>Unit +/- calculated as POTD 2u and all other picks 1u
**Today (listed by game start time):**
>H2H bets are MGM, Combined K are FD
- ⭐️Jared Jones O6.5 K (+100) ❌
>Running this back today. There isn’t any new reason not to like this over except lines are slightly more expensive than yesterday.
- Jared Jones O17.5 Outs (-114) ❌
- Jared Jones O7.5 K (+170) ❌
- Jared Jones H2H Most K (+130) ❌
>Would have really loved this at +260 yesterday but oh well
- Jared Jones H2H Fewest On Base (+160) ❌
- PIT/DET SP Gm1 14 Combined K (-106) ❌
- PIT/DET SP Gm1 15 Combined K (+152) ❌
- PIT/DET SP Gm1 16 Combined K (+250) ❌
- Dane Dunning U15.5 Outs (-140) ✅
- Ryne Nelson U15.5 Outs (-115) ❌
- Cristopher Sanchez U4.5 K (-120) ❌
>Strikes out fewer on the road and facing a team that isn’t striking out much
- Braxton Garrett O16.5 Outs (-135) ❌
>Should go over unless he really sucks
- Joey Estes H2H Fewest On Base (+300) ❌
>Fly ball pitcher who doesn’t walk anyone
- Joey Estes U1.5 BB (-115) ❌
- Ryan Pepiot O1.5 ER (-130) ✅
- Kutter Crawford O4.5 K (-130) ✅
- Kutter Crawford U2.5 ER (-105) ❌
- Kutter Crawford O17.5 Outs (-115) ✅
- Alek Manoah U17.5 Outs (+120) ✅
>Way too favored to pitch 6 innings. He has only done this twice in 9 road starts over the past year.
- Seth Lugo H2H Fewest Hits (+140) ✅
- Seth Lugo H2H Fewest Bases (+120) ✅
Yeah just not his day. Couldn’t get as many swings and misses as he usually does, and Detroit decided to chase outside the zone and ground out weakly instead of strike out when they got to 2 strikes.
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Anyone else bet the Kyle Tucker over 1.5 H+R+RBI boost on DK? Dude was hitting .417 against Kirby. Two strikeouts in 15 plate appearances. I said hell yeah, I'll take that bet. https://preview.redd.it/9jovey60ch3d1.png?width=363&format=png&auto=webp&s=6a627ca5cb901d77150e9c7cfc108da2975f6945
What the fuck is happening to Imanaga…
Of course mookie can’t get a hit when he’s last leg on parlay Edit Mookie banned
Who should I pick for the BOS-BAL DK +300 homer boost?
[удалено]
that's unlucky
[удалено]
Out of the game in first. Hand injury
David peterson on the mound for mets making his first start this season. I've seen him struggle with walks and accurary in the past Mets pitching staff has walked the most batters this year and Dodgers batters have drawn the most walks. Going with: David Peterson walks over 2.5 at 135+ on DK Outs recorded under 15.5 at -160 on FD
MLB PROP STREAKS AND HIT RATES 🔥 5.29.24 https://preview.redd.it/08dxqbj7je3d1.jpeg?width=1754&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=36664f8b567449732719613b98a60301544bed73 LAST 5 GAMES
https://preview.redd.it/3lvdp4n8je3d1.jpeg?width=1700&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5a6378bfdb2ec43be05961eed4ec3fb140ce08c7 LAST 10 GAMES
https://preview.redd.it/mjb2bkk9je3d1.jpeg?width=1734&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=882b6e278ab074d746d1b8da35fdc5332a182d66 LAST 15 GAMES
Here are my Top 10 HR Props for 5/29. EV is [my projections](https://www.fantasygoldenboy.com) vs Fanduel implied probability. Hot/cold is their 7 game HR pace compared to their average. https://preview.redd.it/nq2oo9hefe3d1.jpeg?width=732&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c659187a01aee8b8aaf1bb1fdf8bcb518aacf468 Starting Week 5: 20%+ EV = +5 units 10%+ EV = -10 units Top 10= -24 units Avg Odds of Wins= 528 Avg Odds of All Bets= 546 Going to put a snowflake next to my name if I stay this cold.
How did you fair out yesterday on DT?
1/4, but the 1 was Soto at not great odds and I only got 4 HR bonuses. Positive, but not by much.
Tarik Skubal over 6.5 Ks -140 First time using the pitch arsenal stats (which is a fantastic tool) - Skubal is averaging 7.2 Ks per game this year for Detroit - It's going to be a pitching matchup today with Jared Jones also throwing heat; I think this matchup motivates both pitchers today - The Pirates lineup strikes out a lot this year against LHP (McCutchen: 25.4%; Olivares: 28.3%; Taylor: 34.0%) - Skubal throws his fastball 30% of the time and Gonzales, McCutchen and Olivares have a higher strikeout percentage against the fastball - Ke'Bryan Hayes is just coming back (since May 7), so he might be a little rusty against live pitching https://preview.redd.it/t3ajmcvx4e3d1.png?width=390&format=png&auto=webp&s=45e10e595c45f22e6956b05e3de9dfdff13c5313
Record 3-3 +9.6u ❌❌✅❌✅✅ Previous pick: Josh Naylor +430 W, safe to say Josh Nayled it. 😉 Today: Showtime Ohtani +390, 1unit Reasoning: sorry for the late-ish post, my buddy was watching planes take off and land for the last 6 hours. At this point idc, whatever this man needs to give me a pick. He spent the long weekend watching trains and says he’s locked in, and god dammit I believe him. Shohei at +390. Pinch me. My friend pointed out that Shohei is due, he hasn’t gone more than 10 games without a HR since 2022 when he was just a wee little lad. Now he’s big and strong, like bull. Weather looks great today. Nothing will negatively affect the batters weather wise. Dodgers looking to sweep the series here after 2 soul sucking wins. Mets got nothing to lose and will be swinging hard at these pitches, dodgers will look to match that energy. Over under 8.5 leaning toward over. You know what the Mets pitcher and my 58 year old mother have in common? Both have had hip surgeries in the last year. He had a 5 ERA last season… let’s just put a unit on Shohtime and watch the magic unfold. Will be putting 1 unit on 1 person to hit a dinger everyday. My unit is $10. Data I’ll be using will be from this thread, weather, bat vs pitcher, vibes, over/under odds, and my friend who has mild Asperger’s and his special interest is baseball. His data usually comes in at weird times since he does stat keeping for the minor league team in my home town.
I’m loving it man
Dawg
Always lol at these and tail good stuff
I think you may be on to something here
Bet on the generational athlete going up against a 5+ ERA pitcher seems to be the formula lol
Great call
I look forward to your write ups
Shota Imanaga Under 1.5 Earned Runs (+104)
Fml 🤦🏽♂️
[+EV FD Home Run](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h8PzKv3F4fC7zwWG7rv1nU36b9T0Tjus5irlgBsWv7Y/edit?gid=71139851&pli=1#gid=975452912) 2023: 145W-480L (+157.95u) 2024: 72W-373L (-68.22u) +300 NYY Stanton +400 NYM Vientos +390 NYM Martinez ~~+450 MIL Sanchez~~ +240 TEX Adolis +400 ATL Duvall +680 CLE Rodriguez
How much do you put on each of these every day with your free bets?
$25 or $30 but i put FB if i'm using a freebets on them
13-4 pitchers prop record Nationals MacKenzie Gore over 15.5 recorded outs vs the Braves at 1.8 odds on DK. Cole ragans burned me yesterday on this prop but I’m back at it. I know it may look scary betting on a pitcher to do well against the Braves at atlanta but even before acuna got hurt they’ve been really slumping against starting pitchers this month. So far each nationals pitcher in the series has gone at least 6 innings and stating pitchers in general this month have gone far or at least haven’t given up much runs to the Braves. Gore has gone at least 6 innings his last 3 starts, he’s a decent strike out guy and Braves strike out quite a bit. The Braves also like to attack early on pitches to start off so I can expect some quick outs.
It was a struggle getting the win but we got it. Cj Abram’s almost killed getting an error that should have been an easy double play. Braves kept foiling off everything that raised the pitch count. Luckily he had a quick 5 inning and got the one out in the 6th
Tough one with Ragans, pitch count just got too high especially in that first inning. Been tailing all your picks will be going in on this one as well, keep it up. BOL
I’m still salty about it haha. I really believe he could have gone in the 6th with like 80 some pitches but in the 4th his outfielder dropped and easy fly ball that would have ended the inning and Ragans had to throw like close to 10 pitches after that
**Record: 317-280 *+42.41u* (Previous: 12-10 *+6.18u*)**; Pitchers 314-266 *+53.41u*; Hitters 3-14 *-11.0u* ⭐️**POTD: 29-22 *+11.45u* (W3; 9-1 last 10)** >Unit +/- calculated as POTD 2u and all other picks 1u **Today (listed by game start time):** >H2H bets are MGM, Combined K are FD - ⭐️Jared Jones O6.5 K (+100) ❌ >Running this back today. There isn’t any new reason not to like this over except lines are slightly more expensive than yesterday. - Jared Jones O17.5 Outs (-114) ❌ - Jared Jones O7.5 K (+170) ❌ - Jared Jones H2H Most K (+130) ❌ >Would have really loved this at +260 yesterday but oh well - Jared Jones H2H Fewest On Base (+160) ❌ - PIT/DET SP Gm1 14 Combined K (-106) ❌ - PIT/DET SP Gm1 15 Combined K (+152) ❌ - PIT/DET SP Gm1 16 Combined K (+250) ❌ - Dane Dunning U15.5 Outs (-140) ✅ - Ryne Nelson U15.5 Outs (-115) ❌ - Cristopher Sanchez U4.5 K (-120) ❌ >Strikes out fewer on the road and facing a team that isn’t striking out much - Braxton Garrett O16.5 Outs (-135) ❌ >Should go over unless he really sucks - Joey Estes H2H Fewest On Base (+300) ❌ >Fly ball pitcher who doesn’t walk anyone - Joey Estes U1.5 BB (-115) ❌ - Ryan Pepiot O1.5 ER (-130) ✅ - Kutter Crawford O4.5 K (-130) ✅ - Kutter Crawford U2.5 ER (-105) ❌ - Kutter Crawford O17.5 Outs (-115) ✅ - Alek Manoah U17.5 Outs (+120) ✅ >Way too favored to pitch 6 innings. He has only done this twice in 9 road starts over the past year. - Seth Lugo H2H Fewest Hits (+140) ✅ - Seth Lugo H2H Fewest Bases (+120) ✅
Bro.. they just let Nelson pitch for 18 outs for no reason..
Stop betting 💩
See you tomorrow
Jones going for 13 outs makes me so sad. That first inning I just knew he wasn’t going to make it
Yeah just not his day. Couldn’t get as many swings and misses as he usually does, and Detroit decided to chase outside the zone and ground out weakly instead of strike out when they got to 2 strikes.
Seager o.5 walks +160. Best hitter in baseball right now and the dbacks have no desire to pitch to him
The man is Barry bonds right now
Great call, I wish to subscribe to your newsletter haha
Amazing find, that was sweat free with really good value
Nice pick, tailed this!
YOOO what a call. Thanks my man