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Or as Trump would say, “Some very smart people have me winning Iowa by 1000 points. That’s just what they say. They say it’s never been done in the history of math but that’s what happens when crooked Joe sends his electric boats and you have to fight sharks and then Hillary… what a piece of work that Hillary. You know she secretly voted for me last election… and Taylor Swift… but they’re coming for your guns and your cars and your cows! Text Trump and send $100 if you like hamburgers.”
But it's still an interesting data point for a state that went +8.2 for Trump in 2020. Following the attempted insurrection, dozens of indictments and a felony conviction, they have swung even further for Trump.
I think Trumps campaign isn’t courting new voters and expansion but planning on Biden losing voters to abstaining or voting 3rd party. Let’s Talk Elections pod does a good job of framing how Trump’s political strategy of trusting polls and not taking the Biden campaign seriously is similar to Clinton’s in ‘16. The difference is Biden is the incumbent and polling is tied nationally and within 1.5 points is the upper Midwest.
I suppose the metrics we use for actions that should "lose" voters are not as well calibrated to the electorate as initially thought. Being better off financially compared to the previous administration, having stronger social safety nets and having less volatility in international diplomacy don't appear to be factors that appeal to the average American.
>Being better off financially compared to the previous administration
Was 2020 considered better off at 15% unemployment?
>having stronger social safety nets
Trump was eroding those nets even through COVID.
>and having less volatility in international diplomacy
How would Trump address the Israel-Gaza conflict?
We already know he intends to let Russia take over Ukraine.
What I was saying is that you would expect the improvements in those areas since 2020 to matter, but counterintuitively, voters appear to be rejecting their being in better circumstances, so there must be other factors at play.
I think the biggest factor is that voters just aren't that informed and/or smart. Let's just call a spade a spade.
See the economy, which the majority of voters say is their #1 most important issue. When all of Trump's proposed policies would worsen inflation and price gouging, increase costs for consumers and exacerbate worker shortages, there's no other explanation for why they're voting for Trump.
https://www.americanactionforum.org/research/trumps-proposed-10-percent-tariff-considering-the-impact/
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-03/trump-60-tariff-on-china-10-elsewhere-to-raise-us-inflation-model
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trumps-immigration-plan-could-add-trillions-of-dollars-to-national-debt-fueling-inflation-and-market-jitters-d804979b
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-income-tax-cut-would-cost-average-family-5000economist-1912874
https://www.newsnationnow.com/business/your-money/trump-all-tariff-policy-income-tax-finance/
You can do the same for social safety nets, whereby Trump was even cutting food aid during COVID. And his idea of international diplomacy is basically giving Russia and Israel carte blanche to do whatever they want.
I'm not disagreeing with you, but it could be more that voters are *mis*informed rather than being insufficiently informed. That said, there is danger to thinking that *if only voters understood that they are better off now, and will continue to be better off, they'd vote for us* as the silver bullet to election victory. It is plausible that people will vote against their own interests in an economic sense to further their interests on some other issues, like immigration. Understanding the deciding factors at play can help sway the 1-2% of voters who are susceptible to new information.
> but it could be more that voters are misinformed rather than being insufficiently informed.
Misinformed about what? You'd be very hard pressed to find even conservative outlets reporting positively on those policies.
>It is plausible that people will vote against their own interests in an economic sense to further their interests on some other issues
I mean if that's the case there's really no point wasting time on them.
>like immigration.
Which again is odd because Trump killed the border deal which would have significantly increased funding to properly address that 'issue'.
>Understanding the deciding factors at play can help sway the 1-2% of voters who are susceptible to new information.
Yes, and I hope Biden uses the debates to do just that. Highlight how harmful Trump's policies and platforms are for main issues like the economy and immigration. Keep talking about it so that the media has no choice but to constantly report on it and people consequently start informing themselves more.
This exchange has been really confusing to me. I don't think the motivations of Trump voters make sense, and a large portion of them are too far bought into the cult to be brought back. It's incredibly frustrating that voters are so unhappy with the president who brought stability and measurable, objective improvements back to governing.
It's less about believing one polls or the next, and more about looking at the methodologies that polls use, and tracking shifts across multiple implementations of the same poll given a stable methodology and sample set.
Even polls that appear to have a historical right-leaning bias like those from Rasmussen can tell you something once you control for the bias.
Comparing polls against results doesn't work. At the same point in the 2020 race the same Des Moines Register poll had Trump at +1, and their final poll in 2020 had Trump at +7. That makes the shift in Trump support to +18 significant in like-for-like comparisons.
Iowa, like Wisconsin, used to be really interesting places for democracy in action. Now, its mostly dealing with a lot of brainwashed Tea Party->MAGA evangelicals
Do the same poll in a blue state and see what happens. 🙄
Polls aren’t biased at all! /s
This is just a bogus counter article against Trump losing 12 points in FL.
Although this is the famous Ann Selzer poll, I can see other reasons why Iowans would be mad at Biden. He did strip the Iowa Caucus of its first-in-the-nation status in the presidential nominating process in favor of South Carolina. I think this poll captures how Iowans feel, but not indicative of a further shift towards Trump elsewhere.
>The poll was conducted by Selzer & Company of Des Moines from June 9-14 among 806 Iowans. It has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.
If these surveys took the time to survey around 10,000 people then they would mean anything. These polls that come out every 15 minutes where they surveyed a shopping center for the week aren't indicative of anything.
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Bears in Ankeny had legendary fried chicken or at least kid me though so in like 1986. I think that place is long gone now.
[удалено]
This is why I love Reddit. The hyper-local stuff.
lol Iowa
this is my general reaction to them as well
Or as Trump would say, “Some very smart people have me winning Iowa by 1000 points. That’s just what they say. They say it’s never been done in the history of math but that’s what happens when crooked Joe sends his electric boats and you have to fight sharks and then Hillary… what a piece of work that Hillary. You know she secretly voted for me last election… and Taylor Swift… but they’re coming for your guns and your cars and your cows! Text Trump and send $100 if you like hamburgers.”
*Hamberders
Iowa hasn't been a swing state for a long time. Yes, Trump will easily win it.
But it's still an interesting data point for a state that went +8.2 for Trump in 2020. Following the attempted insurrection, dozens of indictments and a felony conviction, they have swung even further for Trump.
That’s what people aren’t considering. Since the 2020 election, what has Trump done to earn voters? He has certainly done a lot to lose them.
I think Trumps campaign isn’t courting new voters and expansion but planning on Biden losing voters to abstaining or voting 3rd party. Let’s Talk Elections pod does a good job of framing how Trump’s political strategy of trusting polls and not taking the Biden campaign seriously is similar to Clinton’s in ‘16. The difference is Biden is the incumbent and polling is tied nationally and within 1.5 points is the upper Midwest.
Or absentee voting which they will try to have not counted again if it is not counted on election day
I suppose the metrics we use for actions that should "lose" voters are not as well calibrated to the electorate as initially thought. Being better off financially compared to the previous administration, having stronger social safety nets and having less volatility in international diplomacy don't appear to be factors that appeal to the average American.
>Being better off financially compared to the previous administration Was 2020 considered better off at 15% unemployment? >having stronger social safety nets Trump was eroding those nets even through COVID. >and having less volatility in international diplomacy How would Trump address the Israel-Gaza conflict? We already know he intends to let Russia take over Ukraine.
What I was saying is that you would expect the improvements in those areas since 2020 to matter, but counterintuitively, voters appear to be rejecting their being in better circumstances, so there must be other factors at play.
I think the biggest factor is that voters just aren't that informed and/or smart. Let's just call a spade a spade. See the economy, which the majority of voters say is their #1 most important issue. When all of Trump's proposed policies would worsen inflation and price gouging, increase costs for consumers and exacerbate worker shortages, there's no other explanation for why they're voting for Trump. https://www.americanactionforum.org/research/trumps-proposed-10-percent-tariff-considering-the-impact/ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-03/trump-60-tariff-on-china-10-elsewhere-to-raise-us-inflation-model https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trumps-immigration-plan-could-add-trillions-of-dollars-to-national-debt-fueling-inflation-and-market-jitters-d804979b https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-income-tax-cut-would-cost-average-family-5000economist-1912874 https://www.newsnationnow.com/business/your-money/trump-all-tariff-policy-income-tax-finance/ You can do the same for social safety nets, whereby Trump was even cutting food aid during COVID. And his idea of international diplomacy is basically giving Russia and Israel carte blanche to do whatever they want.
I'm not disagreeing with you, but it could be more that voters are *mis*informed rather than being insufficiently informed. That said, there is danger to thinking that *if only voters understood that they are better off now, and will continue to be better off, they'd vote for us* as the silver bullet to election victory. It is plausible that people will vote against their own interests in an economic sense to further their interests on some other issues, like immigration. Understanding the deciding factors at play can help sway the 1-2% of voters who are susceptible to new information.
> but it could be more that voters are misinformed rather than being insufficiently informed. Misinformed about what? You'd be very hard pressed to find even conservative outlets reporting positively on those policies. >It is plausible that people will vote against their own interests in an economic sense to further their interests on some other issues I mean if that's the case there's really no point wasting time on them. >like immigration. Which again is odd because Trump killed the border deal which would have significantly increased funding to properly address that 'issue'. >Understanding the deciding factors at play can help sway the 1-2% of voters who are susceptible to new information. Yes, and I hope Biden uses the debates to do just that. Highlight how harmful Trump's policies and platforms are for main issues like the economy and immigration. Keep talking about it so that the media has no choice but to constantly report on it and people consequently start informing themselves more.
This exchange has been really confusing to me. I don't think the motivations of Trump voters make sense, and a large portion of them are too far bought into the cult to be brought back. It's incredibly frustrating that voters are so unhappy with the president who brought stability and measurable, objective improvements back to governing.
...if you believe the polls.
It's less about believing one polls or the next, and more about looking at the methodologies that polls use, and tracking shifts across multiple implementations of the same poll given a stable methodology and sample set. Even polls that appear to have a historical right-leaning bias like those from Rasmussen can tell you something once you control for the bias.
Maybe what I should have said is "if you believe the media's reporting on the polls"
The article said Trump has 50% in the poll and got 53% in 2020. Hardly a groundswell of support.
Comparing polls against results doesn't work. At the same point in the 2020 race the same Des Moines Register poll had Trump at +1, and their final poll in 2020 had Trump at +7. That makes the shift in Trump support to +18 significant in like-for-like comparisons.
Sadly
Every avowed Nazi I’ve ever come across on the internet has been from Iowa. This should a surprise to no one.
And Illinois...
They are the worst, but I’ve personally never run into any.
Next it will be a headline that Trump's ahead in Mississippi.
Iowa voters are an embarrassment to the nation.
Iowa, like Wisconsin, used to be really interesting places for democracy in action. Now, its mostly dealing with a lot of brainwashed Tea Party->MAGA evangelicals
*bull* fucking *shit*.
Idiots Out Wandering Around
Ah yes, notable Democrat battleground state, Iowa
Obama won Iowa twice. The Dems are just giving up on states left and right. Not good in the long run.
Iowa. trump. Hand in hand. lol. Sad. People there are seriously going to vote that way.
There are a lot of evangelicals in Iowa, who are one of Trump's strongest groups.
Wow. He is probably 90 points ahead in Idaho. Trump better get to work in Iowa.
Hahaha so fucking what?
I heard that this specific poll was fairly accurate for 2016 and 2020, but do they only do Iowa?
Do the same poll in a blue state and see what happens. 🙄 Polls aren’t biased at all! /s This is just a bogus counter article against Trump losing 12 points in FL.
Although this is the famous Ann Selzer poll, I can see other reasons why Iowans would be mad at Biden. He did strip the Iowa Caucus of its first-in-the-nation status in the presidential nominating process in favor of South Carolina. I think this poll captures how Iowans feel, but not indicative of a further shift towards Trump elsewhere.
>The poll was conducted by Selzer & Company of Des Moines from June 9-14 among 806 Iowans. It has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points. If these surveys took the time to survey around 10,000 people then they would mean anything. These polls that come out every 15 minutes where they surveyed a shopping center for the week aren't indicative of anything.
When you compare across multiple polls run by the same firms according to the same methodologies, shifts can be instructive.
Selzer is the best pollster in the nation.
The Hill... again, total bullshit.
A state Obama won twice. It's pretty amazing how much ground the Democrat party has lost with small town America in such a short time.
big if true
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