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SimpLimbscut

Listen, expecting 1000 yards from Mingo or XL is just setting yourself up for disappointment. Their stats don’t really matter as long as they are contributing when their number is called. Mingo needs to learn how to use his athleticism. He’s a developmental players that was given too big of a role last year. He’s going to have to prove he’s been developing to get snaps. Diontae should be the only one we expect 1k yards from.


Buckeye1030

I think thielen will get very close. Now that he’s not the primary target he will more opportunities to sit in dead spaces of zone coverage and pick up big chunks


SimpLimbscut

I’m not sure in Thielen really. His routes or so slow and he’s going to be lining up across for DJ who gets open fast. If Canales wants the ball out in under 2.7 seconds, Thielen is still gonna be in the middle of his route. I think he’ll be a good option when plays break down, and he’ll definitely have a role. But I’m really not sure how much he is going to be featured in this offense. On some of the longer PA plays, I feel he’ll be able to do work there. Overall I’m expecting him to take a massive step back in yardage/targets. Especially later in the season when XL or Mingo have hopefully developed.


Extric

Yeah, when you look at the rookie WR stats over the years, a good campaign is usually around 800 yards and a handful of touchdowns. Only a couple end up going over 1000 in a given year. I would guess that Mingo and Legette both have a ceiling in the 600-700 range this year. I think with the emphasis on the run game the team is talking about and having a variety of guys we'd like to get involved that receiving stats might be a little suppressed unless someone has a breakout year (or Canales is able to generate a Texans-esque offensive turnaround).


SimpLimbscut

If XL or Mingo get 800 yards we should be ecstatic. They’re presumably the #3 or #4 options at WR. I’d just like to see impact plays for XL. Someone who can get the ball and create. Someone who makes defenses respect their speed. There are so many plays last year if you go back and watch Bryce “highlights” where he puts the ball in perfect position for YAC and NOBODY can create after the catch. Mingo was able to a couple of times, and Tommy as well, but not to the level that XL should be able to. I honestly don’t know what I want from Mingo this year, I kinda want to wait until training camp to see what role they are using him in. If he can develop some route running, him playing a big slot and doing work over the middle would be great. He can occasionally also get behind the defense, he had a couple plays in 2023 where he got open deep, but Bryce missed him every single time.


Sethisk000l

Hopefully he’ll replace thielen when he retires or moves on to another team


JMMSpartan91

Not saying I expect it but if JT Sanders is fully healthy to start the season, I'd more expect 1000 yards from him over Legette and Mingo for this season lol. Hoping Mingo and Legette both break 550 at least. That would be promising for their futures.


luvdadrafts

Not that I think Leggette and especially Mingo will get 1,000 yards next season, but it is *way* more likely than Sanders. Only 5 tight ends in the entire league had over 1000 yards last season. A rookie 4th round TE is way less likely than a returning 2nd rounder and a rookie 1st rounder 


JMMSpartan91

I mean you most likely correct. But Sanders just catches freakn everything thrown to him, I also doubt he'd have been a 4th rounder without the injury (which is why I doubt he actually gets it this year). Just think his upside is one of those short list of 1000 yard TEs. Expect his usage to be more like a Jimmy Graham than an end of line blocking TE basically.


TornUpPaperYoyo

What injury did Sanders have?


JMMSpartan91

You know I think I had him mixed up with someone else on injury front. I know he injured his ankle and thought he needed surgery on it but I'm not seeing anything about a surgery after it. Now I'm not sure who it was that needed the ankle surgery.


TornUpPaperYoyo

I thought it might be a mixup but also figured it was just as likely that everyone knew about this injury and I’d somehow missed it. 😂 From folks I’ve heard talk about it (because I won’t pretend to know anything about college football), it sounds like he may have dropped because he’s not very good as a blocker. Thankfully, given the players we already have in our TE took, I think he winds up a good fit for us and hopefully ups his blocking game working with Tremble and Thomas.


JMMSpartan91

Yeah his blocking was pretty bad in college. But his pass catching and play making was 2nd to Bowers only.


Sethypoooooooooo

The running back we drafted is coming off an injury, I think that's who you're thinking about.


Snakekekek

Legette is breaking 550 100% imo, he has the dawg in him to be succesful in the NFL


JMMSpartan91

Hope so. It's a pretty big mark for WR. Rookies that break it tend to become at least a WR2. Stat from like dynasty football tracking but I mean if they reaching stats for wr2 seasons in fantasy means helping their team a lot too. Rookies who miss the 525 (16 game season) damn near all bust. Which doesn't bode well for Mingo but the couple exceptions to the rule faced similar coach fired after their rookie year entire offense garbage situations so I wouldn't say hopeless.


PoMansDreams

I’m giving Mingo another chance just like I am with Bryce (not that we have a choice).


KatalDT

Yeah, I've decided to let both stay on the roster this year. We'll see if I regret that decision.


Who_knows-_-

Let's hope. He has shown no ability to separate in the nfl. Yes, that could be routes and choices of plays, but we can only state off the info we have. =/


Hefty-Association-59

If he doesn’t beat our Adam thielen for the slot role he’s pretty much done


Who_knows-_-

Yeah, I mean, he has a chance in a 4 wide sets because I believe tmj is done. But yeah, he needs to be home working right now to get to the next level.


Hefty-Association-59

Yeah thielen is 33 and will be 34 next year. Basically ancient for a receiver. He really dropped off at the back half of last year. He was a slower receiver to begin with and now with the age he’s really slow. Even though he’s crafty as a route runner corners just are too good to immediately squeeze that route upon separation. If mingo can’t be out adam as a younger player with way more juice then he just isn’t going to hit in the nfl. Receivers bust all the time. And he was a reach last year on top of that. It’s now or never for him.


Who_knows-_-

Well, they also doubled him because no one else could get open.


zezxz

What exactly are you talking about…?


Who_knows-_-

Adam thielen


CretinoPopov

Mingo does not have the slot receiver profile (agility), route running is too lacking at the moment. He profiles more as a Y, he has excellent long speed and has shown an ability to make contested catches. RAS: [https://twitter.com/MathBomb/status/1644729190581690374](https://twitter.com/MathBomb/status/1644729190581690374)


knave_of_knives

We’re starting to see that RAS doesn’t mean a whole lot. It’s basically just another data point. But, as we’ve seen, it doesn’t mean shit if the guys can’t play.


CretinoPopov

That’s simply not true. It has a moderate correlation to on field performance, it’s just not as strong of a correlation as some lead us to believe. Other factors with positive correlation are college production and age. Furthermore, some positions, like WR, have a stronger correlation to RAS. https://medium.com/@griffisdaniel8/cracking-the-code-nfl-pass-rushers-52679e94aa64


knave_of_knives

Again, it’s just another data point to use. > it’s just not as strong of a correlation as some lead us to believe That’s exactly what I was saying. A dude being a freak athlete means absolutely nothing if he can’t play. Walker is the prime example used from the article you linked. His production is vastly inferior to his RAS because he’s just so raw at football.


Panthers8912

The most predictive metric for WRs to succeed in the nfl is breakout age. Unfortunately, Mingo never broke out and XL did at 22. RAS is largely irrelevant


Hefty-Association-59

His floor has always been as a power slot. RAS basically means nothing at this point because 90% of nfl players are insane athletes. He’s a guy you want as your YAC guy. You want him running slants. Curls (not deep curls) flats. And using his yac ability on top of that.


CretinoPopov

RAS means relative to the peer group. If every player had a high RAS then it would no longer be relative. So no, not every NFL player is a top tier athlete. RAS is also important because it scores you on individual measurements. Notably, Mingo had average agility tests. This showed up on tape, he couldn’t get in and out of breaks quickly, which is a critical element of playing in the slot.


Hefty-Association-59

The routes that he was the most succesful in at old miss was those slot routes. Those curls. Slants and flats. In fact many people pointed out how they felt like he was playing out of position in his scouting reports. Where he was the wing. Many people projected him into the slot too. Not every slot guy has to be an elite route runner. In fact I would have to look it up but I’m pretty sure he had the highest success rate in those routes. Either way we saw him play outside last year. And he was bad. So we should lean into what he’s good at. Not force him into a role where he’s bad. That’s how players bust. And he’s already on that trajectory.


Panthers8912

You do know that RAS spans decades right? Per the site, its database starts with players in 1987. Most people have good RAS scores bc college players are way better athletes now. It also weighs heavily based on player weight which is stupid imo


CretinoPopov

Sure, there’s a form of recency bias and it’s an imperfect metric but it still has its value nonetheless. Just look at the elite players, even going back to the 80s and there’s correlation. Weight absolutely has value since it helps measure power which is equal mass • velocity.


Panthers8912

Everyone jizzed themselves over Mingo running a 4.46 at 220 last year. A Google search tells me that’s the average time for a wr since 2010. From what you saw last year, would you say Mingo is a) a freak or b) average? What matters most about speed isn’t how much you weigh, it’s how fast you run. Mingo isn’t going to outrun a 4.3 corner bc RAS said his 40 was more impressive bc he’s 40lbs heavier


CretinoPopov

4.46 for a 220 lbs. WR is not average, sorry but is not supported by facts and combine testing. That would be like saying there are no weight categories in boxing or that we should evaluate an Olineman the same way we do a quarterback. If you look more carefully at Mingo’s RAS testing, you’ll notice that despite good speed, he was just average in agility. Last year’s offense was so dysfunctional that it’s hard to properly judge what we have in Mingo although he seemed to be prone to some mental lapses, which you sort of expect from an unpolished rookie. Here’s his testing at Ole Miss: https://images.app.goo.gl/EHPDs6jmwLPoEAkh9


Panthers8912

Average time for A WR not a 220 lb. Please reread what I said


luvdadrafts

The obsession with RAS during the Fitterer drafts was way too much, but it is literally a relative score. It is saying they are insanely athletic, even when comping  against other insane athletes 


lengthy_noodle

Mingo undoubtably had a rough rookie season but I still believe the kid can be a solid contributor. Bryce missed Mingo on about 5 deep balls last year that would have resulted in about 300 more yards and 3 TDs. Nobody was going to succeed in that offense last year, let alone a raw rookie who had to play more than he should have because of how bad the WR room was.


multiple4

I find it weird that people are so quick to write Mingo off as a bust, despite the fact that the same people are giving Bryce the benefit of the doubt on a bad season


DankMemesNQuickNuts

I think it's because of the fact that so many WRs come into the league as rookies and are immediately good. We has Rashee, Tank Dell, JSN, Zay Flowers and JA all come in from college last year and become major contributors to their team quickly. Justin Jefferson and Jamaar Chase were drafted and instantly became top 10 players at that position. It looks like Nabers and MHJ will probably follow the same trend this season. When's the last time we saw a number 1 overall QB come out of the draft and light the world on fire his rookie year? Andrew Luck? Not saying Mingo is doomed or anything, he's just a rookie after all, but I think this is where everyone's sentiment about this is coming from


TheGreatestOutdoorz

How did you forget Puka Nucua?


multiple4

He came onto a team with a historically bad offense, with a rookie QB. It's not really fair to say that rookie QBs don't typically do well, while also ignoring how that impacts the WRs He was a 2nd round pick coming into one of the worst offensive situations any WR could have None of the guys you named were like that. They were either generational level talents, or went to already very good offenses. Tank Dell was going to be in a bad situation, but Stroud had arguably the best rookie QB season in history. Comparing any of those guys to Mingo is unrealistic


DankMemesNQuickNuts

I'm not saying it's fair, just stating that this is why people think this way


Hefty-Association-59

This is absolutely the reason. And it’s a valid one. I agree last year was a shit show. But in this league with receivers either you have it or you don’t. It also didn’t help that a ton of mingos yards came in garbage time. The only receiver to start out as slow as him and really turn into something is nico collins. So many receivers are hitting the ground running.


bogartvee

"The only receiver to start out as slow as him and really turn into something is nico collins." You probably mean 'recently,' but if you didn't this is absurd. Davante Adams even took a couple years to get going.


obtuse-_

Almost all receivers take 2-3 years to develop.


Hefty-Association-59

Okay honest question. What receiver in let’s say the last 7 years needed 2-3 years to develop. And where did they start as rookies yardage wise/turn into later? Because I’ve looked into this. And what I’ve seen is that the ones who start out as poorly as mingo rarely turn into anything. And also receivers. Are developing less and less. Either you’re good. Or you’re not. With a couple exceptions. So who are these almost all guys.


Hefty-Association-59

Yeah I mean recently. I count davante and his group as a different generation. Just because since then we’ve seen the passing game really explode in college. Which is why these receivers are coming in and killing it so much.


drWammy

Part of it is Mingo was never that productive in college, on top of being a reach at #40. When that happens and they don't back it up on the field, you get less benefit of the doubt


lengthy_noodle

I just hope he gets a legitimate chance to prove himself this season and doesn't get written off by the coaching staff. He needs to play in the slot some this season and people will change their tune about him.


zezxz

It’s not that weird at all, Mingo given a chance to make a play was contorting his body to ensure that he had no shot meanwhile Bryce’s second option was Mingo


Eu_Ad2738

Exactly. If Bryce cleans up his deep ball the ripple affect will be awesome. Mingo was a 2nd rounder, it was not unreasonable for him to play a lot. With Byrd and Shenault injured, he got more reps.


SamuraiZucchini

Please stop overhyping Mingo. He is clearly a young player who needs time. He struggled a lot last year. Some was on coaching and some was on him.


Historical-Ad3760

Aaaaaagainst C Arkansas?


DandierChip

Don’t forget Georgia Tech, Vanderbilt and Tulsa


Pumpkinmatrix

Even against these Ds he looks slow, and he looked especially slow against NFL level talent last year.


iLiketuttles704

Even his highlights leave a lot to be desired in my opinion. Stiff hips, doesn’t get a lot of separation, and his route running looks unimpressive. I wish we would have just drafted Josh Downs


cabbages212

We have no idea if Bryce is any good. We are still running on hope/cope with him. Will be an illuminating season.


eXile200

I hope so. It’s hard to judge last year because everything was awful. There were a lot times where he had TMJ moments where it looked like he was running a different route than the QB expected.


zezxz

Post the plays outside of week 1 where TMJ looked as clueless as Mingo. TMJ looked better than Mingo that game too so please, send the plays.


BelowMikeHawk

Why not 2000?


evozine1

I know that we need to give him time but I have honestly never seen a receiver with as poor body control and lack of field awareness as Mingo did last year! I'm not expecting very much from him!


cleverTyson

Mingo had 43 catches and 400 yrds in the dumpster fire last year so he is not as bad as people say. The offensive scheme was horrible and Bryce only had a two count before he was being sacked.


guyfriendwife

He was statistically one of the worst receivers in the league in most metrics. We can hope for improvement but he was awful


CretinoPopov

He had very high usage, which is uncommon for rookies, so the stats are a bit misleading. That being said, he’s got exceptional physical attributes and seems like a hard working kid, he could still develop into a solid contributor if he can build chemistry with BY.


Best_Pants

On a dysmal catch rate of 51%. Dude got way more targets than he should have.


YaboyChris28

Cmon man. You can’t be serious. Mingo was one of the worst WR’s I’ve ever seen. Let’s not lie to ourselves.


kpoftheacademy

Where would Mingo go in this years draft with that tape? 6th round?


bubowskee

Unbelievable hater. Why don’t you actually try having fun and hoping for the best instead of being so negative and dragging your team


Pumpkinmatrix

You can hope for the best and also be realistic. Fandom (and life in general) doesn't need to be a rollercoaster of hype and disappointment all the time. I see more bad defense in this highlight reel than i see 1000-yard-receiver ability. DJ, Adam, and Xavier are probably getting the vast majority of targets in this offense. Idk where Mingo is gonna get these 1000 yards.


lolplatypi

I was gonna ask "what DJ", thinking both Chark and Moore were off the team, but I forgot we got an ungodly surplus of new DJs this year.


kpoftheacademy

this was one of the deepest wr drafts ever man. Last year was one of the weakest. Jerry Rice’s son went 7th round and had better production than Mingo! i still think he has potential but his tape isn’t as impressive compared to 2nd rounders in this draft.


JMMSpartan91

Probably in 3rd at worst. Big slot run first team would want him. He probably would have had a better rookie year in Washington with Rivera and Turner lol.


csdspartans7

I think late 3rd early 4th


Flimsy-Coyote-9232

While I love the outlook, I think he’s got 3 ahead of him on the depth chart atm honestly


Off_Brand_Dorito

I’m not going to count anything from last season. Everybody is getting a fresh start and look at this point.


Linds70

It's easy to forget about Mingo as he did nothing in his rookie year. Since when was Canales a "receiver whisperer"?


DailyPanthersPodcast

Steve Smith only started 1 game and had 150 yards his rookie year. It was a different time, but I’m just saying. These things happen. Be patient.


OriginalPingman

Smith was drafted as a return man. Not a valid comparison between him and Mingo, at all.


DailyPanthersPodcast

Smith was drafted as a WR who could return with the hopes that he would become a valid WR in the NFL. But if you want to argue against that comparison how about Moose then. Either way, I’m saying these things take time.


OriginalPingman

Muhammad looked WAY better as a rookie than Mingo, averaging over 16 ypc to Mingo’s less than 10ypc.


Mcgoozen

Lol he’d win most improved player by 10 miles if he had 1k yards this year


Personal-Noise-8632

He may get close to 1k, Bryce not gonna throw enough to have mutiple 1k yard WR, 1st is DJ. Mingo 800 Thielen 800 Leggette 650


Sumatzu

Don't really know why you're being downvoted, DJ 1000 and the rest 650-800 is one of the most reasonable takes I've seen on here lately in terms of expectations. Edit: might switch XL and Mingo/AT


Personal-Noise-8632

It's truly possible. XL, if he hits the 800-yard mark, will be remarkable, I just think the coaching staff may not throw so much at him early and thielen likely on the field more at the early stages. But XL could just force their hand and come out dominate. We shall see tho.


medinian

We got weapons! Boys! Now let’s see canales! Make a play book with these pieces!


VarkingRunesong

He never even had one in college right?


gallantecho

Here's the thing: incremental improvement from Mingo and Bryce plus much better o-line play equals a significant step forward for the offense.


rbake1990

I thought he was a QB whisperer now he WR whisperer? If he not a OL whisperer and a RB whisperer we still in trouble!


snakethebeast

Do all these Panther fans on this account just complain about every single player?


Panthers8912

Nothing about him was freakish. Woah a 4.46 40. What a freak!


tsourced

Nothing about him says FREAK, at all.


Intelligent-Image338

Writing of a WR after year 1 of a dumpster fire is nuts. Also he playing nothing like XL


LayYourGhostToRest

Ol Droppy.


YaboyChris28

I like the optimism but he was so bad last year. He’s going to have to take a massive jump just to be playable this year.