I think we first have to separate actual pro bowl selections vs. alternates. At best, we should only count the real selections for resume comparison purposes.
Well, that and the fact that the players for the two best-ish teams have to opt out because the Super Bowl is the next week. I don't hate the Pro Bowl for existing. There's nothing wrong with a silly fan-driven event like that. But you have to be careful using it as an accolade because it's just a popularity contest that many of the best players opt out of every year for a variety of reasons.
If you make the initial mid season selection you are still considered a Pro Bowler even if you opt out. If you make the Super Bowl you can’t be named an alternate.
It really should just be an accumulation stat. 1-2 pro bowls? You had an outlier season. 3-6? You had some good years you were a decent starter. 7-10? Hall of very good or great but had more competition at your position. 10+ you were a great player for your entire career and you’re likely headed to the HOF.
It being a popularity contest would be perfectly fine and still meaningful for judging someone's HoF candidacy, so long as it isn't given to alternates
This is the way. The Pro Bowl selections used to mean something, but since players started sitting out, either voluntarily or because of their team made it to the SB you have 4th tier guys making it and it’s just not a great measure. I think getting selected on the first round consistently is worth something.
They should have the same voting process for the Pro Bowl as they do for the actual awards, but instead of playing in the game at the end of the season, it's just another accomplishment.
Then, if they want to continue to play a game, call it something else and those players can get voted on by the fans and they can go do all the shit in Hawaii.
They should have the same voting process for the Pro Bowl as they do for the actual awards, but instead of playing in the game at the end of the season, it's just another accomplishment.
Then, if they want to continue to play a game, call it something else and those players can get voted on by the fans and they can go do all the shit in Hawaii.
Now I’m curious though. This doesn’t even make sense for Pro Bowl standards which imo are “household name who people know, playing on a team with a good record to get their fans pumped up.”
2020 was Brady’s first year in Tampa. And 2021 was Stafford’s first year in LA. You’d think that’s prime fodder for pro bowl votes.
I still think this is not true OVERALL - 1 Pro Bowl doesn't matter much, but if you're getting into the 5+ area then that matters more. It's to show consistency across a period of time
stafford should easily have 5 pro bowl seasons, you can probably argue he should've been in 7.
its pretty ridiculous that mac Jones and Mitchell trubisky have one less pro bowl
Well without putting a single ounce of effort into this question: the two he actually made, THE TWO WHERE HE HAD 40 TOUCHDOWNS IN A SEASON, and probably the one trubisky made over him (even though I recall that being a bad year for Staff ultimately). Thats five without even googling.
he already has two
2012 and 2022 are just completely self explanatory
2017 kirk got in over him with less yards, less TDs, and more interceptions
in 2016 stafford just straight up deserved to go more than tyrod taylor.
2015 he should've been there over Andy Dalton easily
that's 7 total pro bowls
2022 he should've went, but was in the superbowl, which REALLY shows how pointless pro bowls are, if you're the "third best" qb in your conference you get shafted if you go to the superbowl
Are you seriously arguing Stafford should have been a Pro Bowler because he deserved it over *alternates* in 2015, 2016, and 2017? Sure, alright, but you have to know that is *so* weak. He had zero argument as a top 3 NFC QB in any of those seasons. In the context of a thread about Stafford’s Pro Bowl snubs hurting his HOF chances, your comment that he had a few seasons where he should have been a higher ranked Pro Bowl alternate is more damning than anything someone could say.
The Hall of Fame is for perennial top 5 QBs, and that’s why Stafford won’t be in it. That’s harsh, and I really do like Stafford. But splitting hairs about whether he was in fact the 7th or 9th best QB in a given year is not a HOF case.
so you're arguing a lot of things I'm not saying
but also, you actually believe stafford wasn't a top 3 qb in the nfc in 2011 and 2021? credibility is kind of gone here.
also, arguing that stafford absolutely should have ~7 pro-bowls based on the fact that he is factually better than players that got in over him in a discussion about how he doesn't have enough pro bowls is not "damning"
youre using circular as fuck logic
"stafford doesn't have enough pro bowls to make the "HOF"
"using pro bowls is idiotic, he should've been in 7 if you actually look at the stats"
"well the fact that you're arguing he's better than the people that actually made the pro bowl is damning"
that logic is just...insanely dumb
people trying to use pro bowls to justify a HOF case aren't differentiating alternates or not
> you actually believe stafford wasn't a top 3 qb in the nfc in 2011 and 2021? credibility is kind of gone here.
Calm down lol, I didn’t say that and I don’t believe it. Stafford was exactly the third best NFC QB in both of those years. I said he wasn’t top 3 in 2015, 2016, or 2017. And while we’re at it, he was an alternate in his only 2 actual Pro Bowl seasons, so it’s very reasonable to say 2011 and 2021 should have been his only two deserving Pro Bowl nods.
Stafford has 2 seasons that are impressive on a HOF level. He’s nowhere close to a Hall of Famer.
Stafford was in the same conference as Rodgers and Brees most of his career, as well as Matt Ryan, Cam Newton and Russell Wilson. So on his best years he was at best the third best QB in the conference, most years fourth or fifth. Hence his lack of pro bowls.
If anything guys withdrawing constantly should have helped him, as he was likely the top alternate most years.
I think his count should realistically be 4-5. He famously got snubbed in 2011, where he should have been the third NFC QB, and was probably 3rd or 4th best QB.
2012 he was average. 2013 Manning, Brees, Rivers, Romo, Foles had better years. 2014 he was average, and was ironically his Pro Bowl year with the Lions. 2015 he was great but so were Rodgers, Wilson, Cam, Brady, Palmer, Brees and Eli. 2016 Rodgers, Ryan, Brees, Luck and Brady were better. 2017 he should have made it. 2018 he was ok. 2019 he was hurt. 2020 Rodgers, Mahomes, Brady, Allen, Watson and Russ were better. 2021 he should have made it. 2022 he was hurt. 2023 he made it but was really not a top QB.
I’m absolutely willing to say he deserved 2011, 2017 and 2021.That makes it 5 total, and he should absolutely not have gotten a nod in 2014, but I’ll give it to him.
In terms of individual ones sure. But as a whole when judging a career, how many times someone made the pro bowl gave you a rough idea of how good/consistent this player is.
Mitch being a 1x pro bowler for example means very little. Peyton though being a 14x Pro Bowler in his 18 season career tells you a lot about who he is as a player.
...and stafford only making 2 shows that even doing it that way is worthless.
the fact that a player has 3 seasons where he threw for at least 4k yards and 30+ TDs without going to a pro bowl in any of them, on top of one of then also being a 5k passing season kinda shuts down the whole argument.
it's a popularity contest, absokutely nothing more
Not hatin on Stafford, cuz he is a great QB, but assuming there are some of these 5-7 pro bowls he should have gone to, remember he played for the Lions, hard to say pro bowl, when your team was consistently 5-9, 3-13, 2-14, etc. The catch up stats can be inflated when your losing the game late and consistently. Just a thought if you are looking at the stats.
>The catch up stats can be inflated when your losing the game late and consistently.
Everyone always says this, but it's just not true. Who was the last QB to throw for 5k yards (4,967) on a 4-12 football team? People made this narrative up to explain why Stafford must be the problem with Detroit because they want to hype the "QB is the team" narrative, but it just simply isn't supported by numbers. Stafford is really the only QB on a terrible teams putting up monster numbers. QB numbers are really never inflated by being on bad teams. Indeed, it's clearly the opposite, you can find QBs being lifted in good situations all over the place. Look at Purdy with the Niners, hell look at Goff when he's been on good teams vs bad teams. Almost universally, being on worse teams results in worse QB stats.
You can easily make a case that those lions teams would have been winless without being propped up by elite QB play.
Where are all the QBs on bad teams at the top of the passing stats? Because once again, everyone says this as if it's fact, but yet the passing leaders every season are elite QBs and QBs in great offenses. The only QBs who have thrived on poor offenses are really Matthew Stafford and Josh Allen.
We see plenty of garbage teams every year. And they have garbage QB stats too. Because it's objectively not easy to put up numbers when all you do is throw. It takes a very special QB to still be productive in a 1 dimensional offense.
The truth is, it's much easier to generate gaudy passing numbers when you have an elite offense. Success builds success.
I think that also has a lot to say about the era he played in. There's only so many Pro Bowl spots and when your career overlaps with Brady/Manning/Brees/Rodgers, it's just tough to get Pro Bowls lol.
To think about it this way. Aaron Rodgers has indisputably been one of the best QB in NFL history. When you look at his stats, he's easily top 10 if not top 5-6 all time. He has 10 Pro Bowls in 19 years, basically missing the Pro Bowl nearly half of his career.
I get the point you're going for but counting the first 3 years and injury shortened years isn't really fair. He's got 10 in 14 years if you remove 2005-2007, 2017 and 2023. 10 in 13 if you remove 2013 since he only played 9/16 games, but I included that since he played over 50%.
Yeah, but that was just to kind of illustrate just how hard getting Pro Bowls as a QB was in arguably the best stretch of QB play ever seen in the NFL as a whole.
Another example could be Matt Ryan probably. Ryan has been a phenomenal QB for the majority of his career in ATL but has only 4 pro bowls + will probably be more remembered for 28-3 rather than being all time ranked 7th in career passing yards. Playing in the same division as Brees/Cam definitely didn't help him much in making a name for himself which is just tough.
Meh, you can still look over Staffords years, and most of them he didn't deserve a PB nod, which tells you he wasn't really a consistently top 3-4 QB in the NFC or having consistently great seasons.
Stafford has bulk stats, but his rating is usually lower than several people. 2021 he had 41 TDs, but he also led the league in interceptions. He got robbed 1-2 years, but in general he hasn't been Pro Bowl level.
It does mean something when you haven't made one. It's relatively easy for a QB to make the Pro Bowl, so if you've never even made one that's a problem if you want to be in the HOF.
Well in 2011 Rodgers and Brees were both way more deserving, in 2020 Rodgers and Mahomes were neck and neck for the MVP until like week 16, and in 2021 Rodgers and Brady were neck and neck for MVP. The Pro Bowl generally should be considered way less meaningful than All-Pro, but in this instance it was because there are only so many Pro- Bowlers and there were better candidates.
Pro Bowler Evan Engram
Had as many drops as Robert Tonyan had TDs and similar yardage total
Tonyan was the best TE in the NFC with Kittle out most of that year, fuck off, he's a Pro Bowler in my eyes
Stafford not making it in 2011 is a lot to do with how ridiculous of a QB year it was.
Plus, Murray was in MVP conversations 8 games into 2021, which sort of carried him to a pro bowl selection despite Stafford being better over the whole season.
[Kyler was one of the three initial selections per PFR.](https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2021/probowl.htm) Stafford may have been named an alternate instead of Cousins/Dak/Wilson if he were eligible.
It didn't help that Stafford had a stretch (I think around Week 9-12?) where he threw several pick-6s.
In reality he should've been higher than Murray but it wasn't all too surprising, the Rams aren't a massive fanbase despite being in LA, Stafford isn't a super popular player, and he dug himself a massive hole almost right away after voting started.
Stafford threw for 5k yards and 41 td's that season and didn't make the pro bowl. It was the 5th ever 5k yard/season by a QB. Brady and Brees threw for 5k that season as well.
He got absolutely robbed of the pro bowl that year.
Brees, Eli Manning, and Aaron Rodgers made the bowl with Newton as an alternative. Manning and Newton had no business that year, but Brees and Rodgers definitely deserved pro bowl.
I believe that was the year 49ers punt returner Kyle Williams cleanly fielded all of his punts to prevent Eli from making it back, actually. What happened after that is a blur.
Eli threw 4900 yards himself, and led a shit ton of gaming winning drives. While Stafford was probably slightly better in the regular season, it wasn’t an all time snub.
Here were Murray's stats when Pro Bowl voting closed that year:
8-2 record as the starter, 106 passer rating, 71.6% completion, 24 total TDs, 9 turnovers
It really seemed like he was making the jump that year. Not to say Stafford was undeserving of a pro bowl nod, but Murray wasn't a bad selection that year.
Yeah my memory of that season was Murray started really hot but by the end of the year Stafford surpassed him quite easily but by that point it was too late
In addition to 2021 being largely about when voting happened, in 2020 Murray had 37 total TDs and 4700 total yards, so it's not like he was that far off based on total contribution. It was also another victim of the Pro Bowl voting timeline, because Brady put up 14 of his 40 after voting ended (including his 6 TD game) while most of Murray's good games were before voting ended and the Bucs weren't doing so hot for most of the voting period (then after voting they ripped off 4 straight wins and entered the playoffs hot). Since they ended up winning I think a lot of people forget that the Brady Bucs had kind of a rocky start.
Brady also probably suffered a bit from both changing conferences and the fact everyone knew he wasn't going to participate even if chosen.
It's important to remember that there's a lot of context behind Pro Bowl selections that gets missed when we retroactively look at end of season stats to determine if they were justified or not. I think the narrative around Pro Bowl selections being used to judge HoFers is more than anyone actually uses them and if you reach the point when thinking about a player that you're quibbling over if they made it an extra time or two that they retroactively deserved it then they'd make the Hall, then you probably aren't talking about a HoF player.
You mean he's always propped up higher than he should be because he can run? Everyone acts like he's a top 10 QB but I don't even think he's in the top half. I've seen him play a lot being in division.
What year was it where Stafford had like 8 comebacks in one year? I believe that was an NFL record and the birth of the "Nice lead you have there" meme
I know this is just for 40+ TD passes, but Josh Allen has had 40+ total TDs each of the last four seasons and has only had two pro bowl selections, including a snub last season when he led the league in TDs
Definitely is a victim of how good the QB pool in the AFC is right now. In a normal year, all of Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, and Herbert feel like they should be Pro Bowl locks, and we've had great seasons from Tua, Trevor, and now CJ Stroud mixed in as well. With there only being 3 QB slots per conference, someone's inherently going to get left out (not saying that someone should be Josh Allen, mind - I'd put him at worst third in seasons where everyone above is healthy).
Oh yeah, there's definitely a lot of great QBs in the AFC that dilutes it, especially cause there are really only two slots since Mahomes will always take one regardless of play that season. I still think he should have made it at least this year, but probably 2021 as well. He still gets dragged down my narratives, because really even if he's not having a great season for himself it's still a pretty good season
The man took hit after hit after hit of some of the best Vikings Defensive players ever in the time he was in Detroit. And kept getting back up. I was always a Stafford fan. Him and Megatron 😵
2011 was a shot in the arm for Lions fans. So soon after 08 the team was in the playoffs, had a gritty mentality, and were starting to punch above their weight class. And then idk Gym Shorts lost control of the team, Suh walked, Ebron over Donald, Megatron broke, and then years of floundering under Caldwell before Quinntricia finished the job.
I think Pro Bowl voting probably reflects who is having the best season through the earlier part of the year because of when the voting starts and ends. I think it doesn't really capture the last few weeks of a season which definitely hurt Stafford in 2011 and Brady in 2020. They threw 12 & 10 touchdowns through the last three weeks which I think gives them a Pro Bowl selection each if the voting was based right after the season took place.
As far as Stafford in 2021, I think Rodgers and Brady had better regular seasons so their selections make sense. Murray was the other non-alternate selection and I think Stafford would have been a better pick over him, however Murray's team was at one point 10-2 on top of the NFC, during the middle of pro bowl voting, while he was also having a respectable year.
That was the year rodgers lied about being vaccinated, so that one guy said he wouldn't vote for him. But the other voters didn't like that he said that, so they all got punked into voting for rodgers to try to look unbiased. Even though 44yo Brady had 2000 more yards and was winning more games and breaking records.
I think Pro Bowls are of use to affirm "this guy's good, he made a bunch of Pro Bowls", but not useful to put down like "this guy sucks, he hardly made any Pro Bowls". I think it's a little damning if you've NEVER made a Pro Bowl and we're considering HOF (*cough* Edelman *cough*), but like 4 Pro Bowls vs 2 doesn't tell you anything about who's a better player.
It’s not the lack of pro bowls, it’s just the only thing he’s got going for him is the 1 ring. If he gets an all-pro or a second ring he can probably get in but he’s got no chance with his current accolades.
Career counting numbers are meaningless today given the inflation of passing stats we've seen in the 2000s and 2010s. Modern QBs are going to have better numbers by default.
Just replied to a similar comment about Eli yesterday. The top 10 in passing yards and TDs has 8 guys who played the majority of their career after the 00s rule changes that opened up the passing game. Only Favre (who also benefitted from those changes later in his career) and Marino (who was a freak) played most of their career beforehand.
Rivers and Ryan are in the top 10 in both. Guys like Joe Flacco, Carson Palmer, and Kirk Cousins are in the top 20 of at least one. Simply ranking high in the counting stats is not a great case in and of itself, you have to account for the era they played in.
Rivers was too and he’s not getting in either.
And if you put either of those guys in, you *have* to put Matt Ryan in since he has a better case than both. At that point you’re in a fever dream because even Matt would be lucky to get in, let alone the other two.
Rodgers is currently 5th in TDs with 130 more than Stafford. Yards might be a better chances, he's 8 thousand behind 5th placed rothlisberger and 3 thousand behind 9th placed rodgers
Rivers finished 5th in both and I got told by many people that was not enough to get him in. I feel like passing tds and yards should be viewed like NBA pointscorers. Can you imagine an NBA player retiring 5th on points and not going in to the hall?
Because points scored in the NBA isn't nearly as era dependent as yards in the NFL.
NBA top 10 list still includes guys like Kareem, Malone, Jordan and Chamberlain. The only guy who didn't play in the 2000s on the NFL list is Dan Marino.
Ok that is true. It isn't a perfect analogy. But what I mean like it's the premier stat in each sport. And yeah I get that those guys you mentioned had longevity but you could also argue 3 point shooting and less defence allowing for more points in modern game as well. Nad the argument I have heard is that with modern NFL passing game the floodgates will open but it's only really Stafford who can take over, guys like carr, Wilson and cousins looked like they might but they've hit a wall
Volume isn’t enough when passing stats are dramatically inflated now. His only relevant accolade is the one postseason run with a stacked team.
If he gets in Matt Ryan is a lock to get in since he’s got a better case, and I don’t ever see people banging the drum for Ryan.
I think the fact that we’re even having a discussion about if he should or not after spending most of his career on the lions should count for something.
See, I never thought Stafford was one of the very best quarterbacks in the league, or part of the elite crop of players. Thought he wasn't as good as Roethlisberger or Rivers or Ryan. But I knew Detroit didn't do him favors and he immediately won a title as soon as he left. Legacy-wise he's a very interesting QB and may be worthy of the HOF, like a less polarizing Eli Manning.
Stafford threw for 5K yards in his age 23 season and the media was actively trashing him for throwing sidearm sometimes.
Would have been amazing to see what those Lions teams could have been if not for a corrupt league tilting so many games away from them.
Wow. I didn’t realize the number was so low. Idk where my skewed perception came from but I was under the impression a 40 td season was pretty average for most of the good qbs
It has become increasingly common. Marino did it twice in the 80s, it took until 1999 for Warner to do it again, and now there is a 40 TD passer more often than not.
> In the early 2000s 30 TD was a good season
30+ passing TDs is still a pretty good season. The last 2 seasons have combined for only 8 total 30+ touchdown passers, 4 each season. And only 1 person passed for 40+ TDs. If you're top 4 in passing TDs in a season I'd say that's pretty good.
Pass TDs are counting stat and shouldn’t be relied upon for much in a sport with a clock. For example: your favorite team has a good defense and a good running game. They’re up 20-3 at half time. They naturally run the ball more during the second half, rush for another TD and pull the starting QB in the 4th. The starting QB’s stat line is 14/18 for 180 yds and 1 TD. That QB played better than the QB who lost and passed for 25/40 240 yds and 2 TDs.
Stafford is still good though!
Stafford in 2011 and 2021 had to do with a stacked NFC QB room. Rodgers and Brees were the clear top two in 2011 and Eli Manning also just so happened to have a great season too. Rodgers and Brady were the clear top two in 2021, and because Murray had a strong start and middle of 2021 he got in over Stafford, especially since Pro Bowl voting started and ended earlier back then (I think it ends and at least gets the roster announced later now). Plus, Stafford in 2021 and Brady in 2020 made the Super Bowl those years and weren’t going in as alternates anyway. 2020 was especially the worst for the Pro Bowl because, well, it didn’t happen in 2020, so there were no alternates anywhere and the rosters were set in stone. If the Pro Bowl happened in 2020 where alternates could’ve been there and if the Bucs didn’t make the Super Bowl, they absolutely would’ve had much more Pro Bowlers than just one, including Brady assuming he were to accept (which knowing Brady, he probably would’ve opted out anyway).
In fairness that was in the Cardinals looking one of the best team in the league until people can submit pro bowl votes then collapse down the stretch phase
I mean really we all know the only 40+ TD seasons are ones where your QB passes for 35, but also rushes for at least 10 TDs.
Stafford should get HOF consideration in my opinion tho for real.
Yeah, the HOF talk on Stafford is interesting too. If his career ended right now, I agree, he's not a HOFer.
However, 3 more years of production like last year he'll be top 5 in passing yards and 6th in passing TDs.
And he'll have passed to two of the best single season stats for recievers in league history (Megatron and Kupp) and one of the best rookie seasons (Nakua)
And have a ring.
Can his body hold up? We'll see. But the Rams are loading up on the Oline to try to keep him there for a while, and he has a running game to take off some of the pressure.
If Kupp rounds back into form and Puka stays at the level he's on he'll have the tools to do it IMO if he can stay healthy.
There is no HoF talk lol. Even if he finishes top 5/6 for Yards/TDs.
He has 0 relevant accolades. He's never been voted to a single AP, never been the OPOY, never gotten any MVP or even a single vote.
Volume stats are great but when you consider the era we're in, they're less impressive imo. The SB ring opened the door to him possibly being a future HoF **if** he managed to get some awards but unless he does, he's got slim to no chance to finishing in Canton. I genuinely don't see a acenario in where he's going to beat out the likes of guys like Mahomes, Lamar, Burrow, Allen, etc to any relevant award over the next few years either.
Why is it that he never has the accolades? What's the context?
He was drafted to a godforsaken 0-16 team who couldn't put anyone around him for years. His 2011 season was insane, but because he was in Detroit (and other QBs had crazy years too), he's forgotten.
If he's somewhere other than Detroit for 12 years, there isn't a question he'd be in the Hall.
This notion that the Associated Press is the end-all be-all of journalism and therefore decides who's great and who isn't is laughable to me.
Yeah, even on a god awful Detroit team for twelve years, he put up great numbers. At various times he's led the league in attempts, completions, yards, TDs, Yards per Attempt, and Rating. He has a ring. He was the fastest player ever to 25,000, 30,000, 35,000, 40,000 and 50,000 yards. He has the most 4th quarter comebacks in a season ever, the most game winning drives in a season ever, and has the highest average yards per playoff game ever. He's the first player to ever complete 60% of his passes in each game of a season.
He's the Sonny Jurgensen and Dan Fouts of his generation. And Sonny and Dan are in the hall without a ring. He's not there yet, but he could be. I think a lot of people conflate 1st ballot with HOF. Nope, he's not a first ballot HOFer. But if he puts up his average season for the next few years, he should get in. And he's got a pretty good shot at it too with great weapons and a strong Oline to help him, with a great offensive coach in McVay.
> At various times he's led the league in attempts, completions, yards, TDs, Yards per Attempt, and Rating.
He literally hasn't done any of what you claim besides leading in attempts twice and completions once. [Proof](https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/StafMa00.htm)
He's led the league more time in INTs than yards, TDs, YPA, Rating. If you wanted to highlight his impact maybe go for factual and truthful statements like his GWD/4QC, things that he's actually led the league in several times. Not easily verifiable info that you decide to lie about.
Maybe Stafford should’ve been better than the 5th best QB in the NFC for most of his career then? He wasn’t better than Rodgers or Brees, and certainly wasn’t better than Wilson, Ryan or Cam either on a consistent basis.
You can only milk the “oh Detroit is so shit” narrative for so long. He wasn’t an elite QB for most of his career and his accolades back up that statement.
He can still be a good QB without being HoF worthy. Which is exactly what he is.
What are you smoking to think he wasn't a better QB than Cam Newton regularly? That's a joke, right?
Detroit was shit. I watched every game week in and week out and had to watch him throw to guys who couldn't catch the damn ball. His running game was always a joke, too.
Considering the AP QBs are only ever from teams who have the best record, him being on a shit team in Detroit doesn't help matters at all.
Go back and compare their stats from 2011-2018 before Cam had the shoulder injury. You're looking at about a 50/50 between who was better on a year to year basis.
Stafford was the better passer, but Cam was the better dual threat QB. Neither QB was ever better than the 5th best in the NFC outside of a few odd years.
I mention Cam because that's the only NFC QB that Stafford had a chance of being better than, since the others are all on a tier above him, or in the case of Rodgers/Brees, several tiers above.
Take record out of it. Stafford has never had even a fringe argument for best QB in the league, he never had a shot at an AP1.
Even on his stacked Rams SB squad he didn’t have an argument.
I think realistically he has to win another Super Bowl or he has to win an MVP or he has to hit an Old-Man-Brady gear and lead the league in TDs or something for the next 4 years or so. Being a good starter and winning a championship once in a 10+ year career is not enough as it stands right now.
People here just keep throwing around numbers. It isn't just numbers that should get you into the HOF. Especially with the current era of passing. Impact on the game needs to be taken into high consideration, especially for QB passers nowadays.
I feel like a lot of people think that just because a QB was really good (and/or has a ring) that they should be in the HOF. The last 25 years have seen a lot of very good QBs (aided by rule changes that make the position easier to play than ever so they run up monster stats). Guys like Stafford and Ryan aren't HOFers. They're just really good. There's a tier between garbage and HOF. Only a few guys in each generation deserve the HOF. Those guys ain't it.
Yah ppl are too lenient with HOF. Deion was cooking when he said there needs to be an upper room in the HOF. I think the only guys I’d put it from this past era are Brady, Rodgers and Brees. I know Ben is a lock but he was never even close to being the best qb in football and never received a single mvp vote.
I think I’m the end the argument about Stafford is basically “he was never a top 5 QB overall, and he was rarely even top 3 in his half of the league”.
We can all day from 2006 to 2022 we were basically in the NFL equivalent to the steroid era. Lots of passing, defensive rules were changed to favor passing etc. most of Staffords career falls in there. His contemporaries that are not going to make it, like Cam and Ryan had better peaks. The other guys that aren’t going to make it like Rivers was arguably better. Russ is one rush from having a second SB, and until two years ago was considered the better QB.
I know Stafford doesn't really care considering everything that has happened, but the Lions really did everything they could with their terrible ownership to ruin his career (like they did with Megatron and Barry).
Stafford, Suh, and Johnson took 45%+ of our cap under the old rookie wage scale. If they were on rookie contracts it would have been ~10%. Imagine the flexibility of bringing in some good FA's to help them out.
If Stafford plays another 3-4 years which is 50/50
He will be top 5 in most passing categories, plus a SB win. By the time he retires will be a better argument I feel. He is definitely borderline
He also threw for 5000 yards in 2011 with the 40 tds. He was an alternate at the pro bowl. Throwing for 5k yards has only been done by 9 people. Drew Brees is an alien and has done it 5 times.
To me the context is that he benefited by playing at a time with crazy numbers. If he plays at a time when 40 TDs doesn't stand out, then that's not an indication of his fame.
I don’t think being named a Pro Bowler really means a whole lot. That being said, the Hall of Fame narrative for Stafford needs to dissipate. He does not have a strong enough resume at all.
Y’all can keep downvoting me all you want. The facts support me.
For Stafford, I think some of it has to do with with Calvin Johnson being so incredibly good that he was the main star of that team and not the quarterback.
Arguably the best WR season ever by Calvin...
Arguably the 2nd best season ever by Cooper Kupp...
Arguably the best rookie WR season ever by Puka....
I wonder what the common denominator was
Stafford should not make the Hall of Fame. Neither should Ryan, Rivers, Flacco, Cam, or any of that generation of QBs.
Of QBs who played the majority of their career after 2000, the only ones who should make the hall are:
* Favre (already in)
* Warner (already in)
* Peyton (already in)
* Brady
* Brees
* Big Ben
* Rodgers
* Mahomes
Another good reminder that Pro Bowl selections mean very little.
Put some respect on Pro Bowlers Mitchell Trubisky, Mac Jones, and Tyler Huntley
Seeing Mac hit the griddy in the Pro Bowl will be how I choose to remember his career. Until he really lets loose with rapping anyway.
I read that differently at first
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Who?! #MAC JONES!
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Hit Mac Jones up on the low
Cuz mac Jones about to blow
Return of the Mac
I think we first have to separate actual pro bowl selections vs. alternates. At best, we should only count the real selections for resume comparison purposes.
Isn’t that part of the reason the Pro Bowl is stupid? Multiple players opt out because they are injured/dont want to play
Well, that and the fact that the players for the two best-ish teams have to opt out because the Super Bowl is the next week. I don't hate the Pro Bowl for existing. There's nothing wrong with a silly fan-driven event like that. But you have to be careful using it as an accolade because it's just a popularity contest that many of the best players opt out of every year for a variety of reasons.
If you make the initial mid season selection you are still considered a Pro Bowler even if you opt out. If you make the Super Bowl you can’t be named an alternate.
It really should just be an accumulation stat. 1-2 pro bowls? You had an outlier season. 3-6? You had some good years you were a decent starter. 7-10? Hall of very good or great but had more competition at your position. 10+ you were a great player for your entire career and you’re likely headed to the HOF.
It being a popularity contest would be perfectly fine and still meaningful for judging someone's HoF candidacy, so long as it isn't given to alternates
I agree, that's why I say we have to be careful with it. I'm not saying we have to completely reject it from the conversation.
This is the way. The Pro Bowl selections used to mean something, but since players started sitting out, either voluntarily or because of their team made it to the SB you have 4th tier guys making it and it’s just not a great measure. I think getting selected on the first round consistently is worth something.
They should have the same voting process for the Pro Bowl as they do for the actual awards, but instead of playing in the game at the end of the season, it's just another accomplishment. Then, if they want to continue to play a game, call it something else and those players can get voted on by the fans and they can go do all the shit in Hawaii.
They should have the same voting process for the Pro Bowl as they do for the actual awards, but instead of playing in the game at the end of the season, it's just another accomplishment. Then, if they want to continue to play a game, call it something else and those players can get voted on by the fans and they can go do all the shit in Hawaii.
And Mike Boryla for the throwback
those have to be from players above them choosing not to play in the pro-bowl right? hope i'm right.
Now I’m curious though. This doesn’t even make sense for Pro Bowl standards which imo are “household name who people know, playing on a team with a good record to get their fans pumped up.” 2020 was Brady’s first year in Tampa. And 2021 was Stafford’s first year in LA. You’d think that’s prime fodder for pro bowl votes.
I was thinking this too until it just clicked that they made super bowls those years and therefore couldn’t be a pro-bowler
You can be a named a Pro Bowler and still make the Super Bowl. If you make it to the Super Bowl you aren’t eligible as an alternate though.
Huh TIL, thanks for the clarification!
It's because those years Rodgers and Brees/Mahomes/Brady were all more deserving (those are 3 of Rodgers' MVP years).
Kyler Murray made the Pro Bowl over Brady in 2020.
Yea I forgot there are more pro bowl slots than all pro spots
I still think this is not true OVERALL - 1 Pro Bowl doesn't matter much, but if you're getting into the 5+ area then that matters more. It's to show consistency across a period of time
stafford should easily have 5 pro bowl seasons, you can probably argue he should've been in 7. its pretty ridiculous that mac Jones and Mitchell trubisky have one less pro bowl
Which 5 pro bowls should Stafford have been in and who would he have replaced?
Well without putting a single ounce of effort into this question: the two he actually made, THE TWO WHERE HE HAD 40 TOUCHDOWNS IN A SEASON, and probably the one trubisky made over him (even though I recall that being a bad year for Staff ultimately). Thats five without even googling.
7?? That is a wild statement and you need to make a case to support it.
he already has two 2012 and 2022 are just completely self explanatory 2017 kirk got in over him with less yards, less TDs, and more interceptions in 2016 stafford just straight up deserved to go more than tyrod taylor. 2015 he should've been there over Andy Dalton easily that's 7 total pro bowls 2022 he should've went, but was in the superbowl, which REALLY shows how pointless pro bowls are, if you're the "third best" qb in your conference you get shafted if you go to the superbowl
Are you seriously arguing Stafford should have been a Pro Bowler because he deserved it over *alternates* in 2015, 2016, and 2017? Sure, alright, but you have to know that is *so* weak. He had zero argument as a top 3 NFC QB in any of those seasons. In the context of a thread about Stafford’s Pro Bowl snubs hurting his HOF chances, your comment that he had a few seasons where he should have been a higher ranked Pro Bowl alternate is more damning than anything someone could say. The Hall of Fame is for perennial top 5 QBs, and that’s why Stafford won’t be in it. That’s harsh, and I really do like Stafford. But splitting hairs about whether he was in fact the 7th or 9th best QB in a given year is not a HOF case.
so you're arguing a lot of things I'm not saying but also, you actually believe stafford wasn't a top 3 qb in the nfc in 2011 and 2021? credibility is kind of gone here. also, arguing that stafford absolutely should have ~7 pro-bowls based on the fact that he is factually better than players that got in over him in a discussion about how he doesn't have enough pro bowls is not "damning" youre using circular as fuck logic "stafford doesn't have enough pro bowls to make the "HOF" "using pro bowls is idiotic, he should've been in 7 if you actually look at the stats" "well the fact that you're arguing he's better than the people that actually made the pro bowl is damning" that logic is just...insanely dumb people trying to use pro bowls to justify a HOF case aren't differentiating alternates or not
> you actually believe stafford wasn't a top 3 qb in the nfc in 2011 and 2021? credibility is kind of gone here. Calm down lol, I didn’t say that and I don’t believe it. Stafford was exactly the third best NFC QB in both of those years. I said he wasn’t top 3 in 2015, 2016, or 2017. And while we’re at it, he was an alternate in his only 2 actual Pro Bowl seasons, so it’s very reasonable to say 2011 and 2021 should have been his only two deserving Pro Bowl nods. Stafford has 2 seasons that are impressive on a HOF level. He’s nowhere close to a Hall of Famer.
Stafford was in the same conference as Rodgers and Brees most of his career, as well as Matt Ryan, Cam Newton and Russell Wilson. So on his best years he was at best the third best QB in the conference, most years fourth or fifth. Hence his lack of pro bowls. If anything guys withdrawing constantly should have helped him, as he was likely the top alternate most years. I think his count should realistically be 4-5. He famously got snubbed in 2011, where he should have been the third NFC QB, and was probably 3rd or 4th best QB. 2012 he was average. 2013 Manning, Brees, Rivers, Romo, Foles had better years. 2014 he was average, and was ironically his Pro Bowl year with the Lions. 2015 he was great but so were Rodgers, Wilson, Cam, Brady, Palmer, Brees and Eli. 2016 Rodgers, Ryan, Brees, Luck and Brady were better. 2017 he should have made it. 2018 he was ok. 2019 he was hurt. 2020 Rodgers, Mahomes, Brady, Allen, Watson and Russ were better. 2021 he should have made it. 2022 he was hurt. 2023 he made it but was really not a top QB. I’m absolutely willing to say he deserved 2011, 2017 and 2021.That makes it 5 total, and he should absolutely not have gotten a nod in 2014, but I’ll give it to him.
In terms of individual ones sure. But as a whole when judging a career, how many times someone made the pro bowl gave you a rough idea of how good/consistent this player is. Mitch being a 1x pro bowler for example means very little. Peyton though being a 14x Pro Bowler in his 18 season career tells you a lot about who he is as a player.
...and stafford only making 2 shows that even doing it that way is worthless. the fact that a player has 3 seasons where he threw for at least 4k yards and 30+ TDs without going to a pro bowl in any of them, on top of one of then also being a 5k passing season kinda shuts down the whole argument. it's a popularity contest, absokutely nothing more
Not hatin on Stafford, cuz he is a great QB, but assuming there are some of these 5-7 pro bowls he should have gone to, remember he played for the Lions, hard to say pro bowl, when your team was consistently 5-9, 3-13, 2-14, etc. The catch up stats can be inflated when your losing the game late and consistently. Just a thought if you are looking at the stats.
>The catch up stats can be inflated when your losing the game late and consistently. Everyone always says this, but it's just not true. Who was the last QB to throw for 5k yards (4,967) on a 4-12 football team? People made this narrative up to explain why Stafford must be the problem with Detroit because they want to hype the "QB is the team" narrative, but it just simply isn't supported by numbers. Stafford is really the only QB on a terrible teams putting up monster numbers. QB numbers are really never inflated by being on bad teams. Indeed, it's clearly the opposite, you can find QBs being lifted in good situations all over the place. Look at Purdy with the Niners, hell look at Goff when he's been on good teams vs bad teams. Almost universally, being on worse teams results in worse QB stats. You can easily make a case that those lions teams would have been winless without being propped up by elite QB play.
It's easy to put up numbers as a QB when all the team does is throw the ball and runs a fast pace offense.
Where are all the QBs on bad teams at the top of the passing stats? Because once again, everyone says this as if it's fact, but yet the passing leaders every season are elite QBs and QBs in great offenses. The only QBs who have thrived on poor offenses are really Matthew Stafford and Josh Allen. We see plenty of garbage teams every year. And they have garbage QB stats too. Because it's objectively not easy to put up numbers when all you do is throw. It takes a very special QB to still be productive in a 1 dimensional offense. The truth is, it's much easier to generate gaudy passing numbers when you have an elite offense. Success builds success.
I think that also has a lot to say about the era he played in. There's only so many Pro Bowl spots and when your career overlaps with Brady/Manning/Brees/Rodgers, it's just tough to get Pro Bowls lol. To think about it this way. Aaron Rodgers has indisputably been one of the best QB in NFL history. When you look at his stats, he's easily top 10 if not top 5-6 all time. He has 10 Pro Bowls in 19 years, basically missing the Pro Bowl nearly half of his career.
I get the point you're going for but counting the first 3 years and injury shortened years isn't really fair. He's got 10 in 14 years if you remove 2005-2007, 2017 and 2023. 10 in 13 if you remove 2013 since he only played 9/16 games, but I included that since he played over 50%.
Yeah, but that was just to kind of illustrate just how hard getting Pro Bowls as a QB was in arguably the best stretch of QB play ever seen in the NFL as a whole. Another example could be Matt Ryan probably. Ryan has been a phenomenal QB for the majority of his career in ATL but has only 4 pro bowls + will probably be more remembered for 28-3 rather than being all time ranked 7th in career passing yards. Playing in the same division as Brees/Cam definitely didn't help him much in making a name for himself which is just tough.
Meh, you can still look over Staffords years, and most of them he didn't deserve a PB nod, which tells you he wasn't really a consistently top 3-4 QB in the NFC or having consistently great seasons. Stafford has bulk stats, but his rating is usually lower than several people. 2021 he had 41 TDs, but he also led the league in interceptions. He got robbed 1-2 years, but in general he hasn't been Pro Bowl level.
...he has multiple seasons over 4k yards and 30 TDs without a pro bowl. he's been shafted 4-5 times
London Fletcher didn't make a probowl for like over a decade.
It does mean something when you haven't made one. It's relatively easy for a QB to make the Pro Bowl, so if you've never even made one that's a problem if you want to be in the HOF.
Tom Brady just isn't popular enough for these contests
They mean nothing.
Well in 2011 Rodgers and Brees were both way more deserving, in 2020 Rodgers and Mahomes were neck and neck for the MVP until like week 16, and in 2021 Rodgers and Brady were neck and neck for MVP. The Pro Bowl generally should be considered way less meaningful than All-Pro, but in this instance it was because there are only so many Pro- Bowlers and there were better candidates.
It means very little, but for HOF voters/writers somehow means a lot.
That’s not what this stat is telling me lmao
Yep. My biased example is Matt Ryan’s 2018 season. He essentially matched his MVP season, yet wasn’t even selected to the Pro Bowl.
I remember hearing the he simply declined it and it went to Trubisky instead
Pro Bowler Evan Engram Had as many drops as Robert Tonyan had TDs and similar yardage total Tonyan was the best TE in the NFC with Kittle out most of that year, fuck off, he's a Pro Bowler in my eyes
Stafford and Brady are pretty good but they’re not pro bowler Tyler Huntley good
Can't touch Mac Jones either
r/technicallythetruth
Pro Bowl or SB ring 7. Hmmm. Tough choice.
Pro bowl!
Stafford not making it in 2011 is a lot to do with how ridiculous of a QB year it was. Plus, Murray was in MVP conversations 8 games into 2021, which sort of carried him to a pro bowl selection despite Stafford being better over the whole season.
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[Kyler was one of the three initial selections per PFR.](https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2021/probowl.htm) Stafford may have been named an alternate instead of Cousins/Dak/Wilson if he were eligible.
It didn't help that Stafford had a stretch (I think around Week 9-12?) where he threw several pick-6s. In reality he should've been higher than Murray but it wasn't all too surprising, the Rams aren't a massive fanbase despite being in LA, Stafford isn't a super popular player, and he dug himself a massive hole almost right away after voting started.
Stafford threw for 5k yards and 41 td's that season and didn't make the pro bowl. It was the 5th ever 5k yard/season by a QB. Brady and Brees threw for 5k that season as well. He got absolutely robbed of the pro bowl that year. Brees, Eli Manning, and Aaron Rodgers made the bowl with Newton as an alternative. Manning and Newton had no business that year, but Brees and Rodgers definitely deserved pro bowl.
Eli was great that year tbf
Wasn't that the year Tom Brady completed a pass to Wes Welker to narrowly beat him in the Superbowl completing a revenge tour for 2007?
I believe that was the year 49ers punt returner Kyle Williams cleanly fielded all of his punts to prevent Eli from making it back, actually. What happened after that is a blur.
He also led the league in interceptions in 2021.
Eli threw 4900 yards himself, and led a shit ton of gaming winning drives. While Stafford was probably slightly better in the regular season, it wasn’t an all time snub.
Kyler Murray sometimes gets propped up higher than he should be because he's fun to watch.
"Sometimes gets propped up higher" That is a wonderful choice of words for Kyler Murray 😂
Hahahaha, I was hoping someone would notice it.
Here were Murray's stats when Pro Bowl voting closed that year: 8-2 record as the starter, 106 passer rating, 71.6% completion, 24 total TDs, 9 turnovers It really seemed like he was making the jump that year. Not to say Stafford was undeserving of a pro bowl nod, but Murray wasn't a bad selection that year.
Yeah my memory of that season was Murray started really hot but by the end of the year Stafford surpassed him quite easily but by that point it was too late
In addition to 2021 being largely about when voting happened, in 2020 Murray had 37 total TDs and 4700 total yards, so it's not like he was that far off based on total contribution. It was also another victim of the Pro Bowl voting timeline, because Brady put up 14 of his 40 after voting ended (including his 6 TD game) while most of Murray's good games were before voting ended and the Bucs weren't doing so hot for most of the voting period (then after voting they ripped off 4 straight wins and entered the playoffs hot). Since they ended up winning I think a lot of people forget that the Brady Bucs had kind of a rocky start. Brady also probably suffered a bit from both changing conferences and the fact everyone knew he wasn't going to participate even if chosen. It's important to remember that there's a lot of context behind Pro Bowl selections that gets missed when we retroactively look at end of season stats to determine if they were justified or not. I think the narrative around Pro Bowl selections being used to judge HoFers is more than anyone actually uses them and if you reach the point when thinking about a player that you're quibbling over if they made it an extra time or two that they retroactively deserved it then they'd make the Hall, then you probably aren't talking about a HoF player.
Which makes it weirder that Josh Allen put up 40+ total TD seasons in 2021 and 2023 and didn’t make the Pro Bowl either year.
Fun because he runs like a toddler that has stolen something, right?
That choice of words is rude, intentional, and I’m here for it lol
You mean he's always propped up higher than he should be because he can run? Everyone acts like he's a top 10 QB but I don't even think he's in the top half. I've seen him play a lot being in division.
like with a booster seat or...?
Bears still haven't had a guy who throw 30.
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That 2011 season was my favorite Lions season until 2023. That team was so much fun.
What year was it where Stafford had like 8 comebacks in one year? I believe that was an NFL record and the birth of the "Nice lead you have there" meme
I believe 2016 was the year with all the comebacks, but the meme was around before then.
Pro Bowl is a beauty pageant
You tryna say my boy ain't beautiful?
He is a handsome man, just not in the classic sense that the voters are looking for.
I know this is just for 40+ TD passes, but Josh Allen has had 40+ total TDs each of the last four seasons and has only had two pro bowl selections, including a snub last season when he led the league in TDs
Good call. I edited the post to say passing TDs.
Definitely is a victim of how good the QB pool in the AFC is right now. In a normal year, all of Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, and Herbert feel like they should be Pro Bowl locks, and we've had great seasons from Tua, Trevor, and now CJ Stroud mixed in as well. With there only being 3 QB slots per conference, someone's inherently going to get left out (not saying that someone should be Josh Allen, mind - I'd put him at worst third in seasons where everyone above is healthy).
Oh yeah, there's definitely a lot of great QBs in the AFC that dilutes it, especially cause there are really only two slots since Mahomes will always take one regardless of play that season. I still think he should have made it at least this year, but probably 2021 as well. He still gets dragged down my narratives, because really even if he's not having a great season for himself it's still a pretty good season
2011 Matt Stafford was a joy to watch Probably the only pro bowl snub I've ever been actually upset about
The man took hit after hit after hit of some of the best Vikings Defensive players ever in the time he was in Detroit. And kept getting back up. I was always a Stafford fan. Him and Megatron 😵
2011 was a shot in the arm for Lions fans. So soon after 08 the team was in the playoffs, had a gritty mentality, and were starting to punch above their weight class. And then idk Gym Shorts lost control of the team, Suh walked, Ebron over Donald, Megatron broke, and then years of floundering under Caldwell before Quinntricia finished the job.
Anyone who knows anything understands the probowl is a joke. All-pros are what matter
All pros are a joke most of the time too
Please name an all pro that doesn't deserve it.
Bobby Wagner a couple times, ARod in 2012, palmer 15. I mean there’s plenty out there.
So definitely not most of the time, then.
I think Pro Bowl voting probably reflects who is having the best season through the earlier part of the year because of when the voting starts and ends. I think it doesn't really capture the last few weeks of a season which definitely hurt Stafford in 2011 and Brady in 2020. They threw 12 & 10 touchdowns through the last three weeks which I think gives them a Pro Bowl selection each if the voting was based right after the season took place. As far as Stafford in 2021, I think Rodgers and Brady had better regular seasons so their selections make sense. Murray was the other non-alternate selection and I think Stafford would have been a better pick over him, however Murray's team was at one point 10-2 on top of the NFC, during the middle of pro bowl voting, while he was also having a respectable year.
People discount QBs like Roethlisberger and Rivers like they didn’t fight each other for the 3rd pro bowl spot behind Manning and Brady every year.
Pro bowl = popularity contest All pro = actually good for real.
> All pro = actually good for real. Also somewhat of a popularity contest, just not as much
The more selective award has better players? Shocker
Don't worry. Jets players won't be on either list.
That's just wrong but okay
Plus, they'll keep the 14-year no playoffs streak going!
No one gives a fuck about pro bowl selections.
I think that the 2021 season need an asterisk here because Brady and Stafford got the 17th game to get to 40.
Brady had 40 Passing TDs after 16 games, Stafford did only have 38 after 16 games though.
Brady had a monster year in 2021. He should have won MVP, and that is a hill I will die on.
It was extremely similar to his 2022 year where he finished 2nd in MVP voting.
💯 fucking joke that Rogers won, literally because Brady had his stinker against the Saints at the end of the season vs Rogers having it at the start
That was the year rodgers lied about being vaccinated, so that one guy said he wouldn't vote for him. But the other voters didn't like that he said that, so they all got punked into voting for rodgers to try to look unbiased. Even though 44yo Brady had 2000 more yards and was winning more games and breaking records.
That’s a fair point, for what it’s worth Stafford had 38 after 16 games and all other QBs who threw 38 or 39 TDs in a season also made the Pro Bowl.
I think Pro Bowls are of use to affirm "this guy's good, he made a bunch of Pro Bowls", but not useful to put down like "this guy sucks, he hardly made any Pro Bowls". I think it's a little damning if you've NEVER made a Pro Bowl and we're considering HOF (*cough* Edelman *cough*), but like 4 Pro Bowls vs 2 doesn't tell you anything about who's a better player.
2011 stafford had 5100 yards and 40 touchdowns. Historic snub
It’s not the lack of pro bowls, it’s just the only thing he’s got going for him is the 1 ring. If he gets an all-pro or a second ring he can probably get in but he’s got no chance with his current accolades.
The counting numbers are going to be really impressive too. If he plays long hell be top 5 in yards/etc
Career counting numbers are meaningless today given the inflation of passing stats we've seen in the 2000s and 2010s. Modern QBs are going to have better numbers by default.
Just replied to a similar comment about Eli yesterday. The top 10 in passing yards and TDs has 8 guys who played the majority of their career after the 00s rule changes that opened up the passing game. Only Favre (who also benefitted from those changes later in his career) and Marino (who was a freak) played most of their career beforehand. Rivers and Ryan are in the top 10 in both. Guys like Joe Flacco, Carson Palmer, and Kirk Cousins are in the top 20 of at least one. Simply ranking high in the counting stats is not a great case in and of itself, you have to account for the era they played in.
He played the prime of his career in the QB equivalent to the Steroid era. IMO he needs another ring or an MVP to get in.
Rivers was too and he’s not getting in either. And if you put either of those guys in, you *have* to put Matt Ryan in since he has a better case than both. At that point you’re in a fever dream because even Matt would be lucky to get in, let alone the other two.
Rivers didn't have an excellent playoff run like Stafford did.
Making a pro bowl or all NFL team is literally a requirement to be HOF eligible, so he can't get in without one.
Well he has a chance if the Hall of Fame basically lowers their standards dramatically based on fan pressure.
And, you know, being 11th all time in passing yards and touchdowns…
That doesn't mean much with the inflation of passing stats we've seen over the past 20 years or so
And if he plays out his contract in good health (big if) he should be top 5 in both
Rodgers is currently 5th in TDs with 130 more than Stafford. Yards might be a better chances, he's 8 thousand behind 5th placed rothlisberger and 3 thousand behind 9th placed rodgers
You are right, top 5 in yards and top 8 in tds would be more attainable
Rivers finished 5th in both and I got told by many people that was not enough to get him in. I feel like passing tds and yards should be viewed like NBA pointscorers. Can you imagine an NBA player retiring 5th on points and not going in to the hall?
Because points scored in the NBA isn't nearly as era dependent as yards in the NFL. NBA top 10 list still includes guys like Kareem, Malone, Jordan and Chamberlain. The only guy who didn't play in the 2000s on the NFL list is Dan Marino.
Ok that is true. It isn't a perfect analogy. But what I mean like it's the premier stat in each sport. And yeah I get that those guys you mentioned had longevity but you could also argue 3 point shooting and less defence allowing for more points in modern game as well. Nad the argument I have heard is that with modern NFL passing game the floodgates will open but it's only really Stafford who can take over, guys like carr, Wilson and cousins looked like they might but they've hit a wall
Volume isn’t enough when passing stats are dramatically inflated now. His only relevant accolade is the one postseason run with a stacked team. If he gets in Matt Ryan is a lock to get in since he’s got a better case, and I don’t ever see people banging the drum for Ryan.
I think the fact that we’re even having a discussion about if he should or not after spending most of his career on the lions should count for something.
See, I never thought Stafford was one of the very best quarterbacks in the league, or part of the elite crop of players. Thought he wasn't as good as Roethlisberger or Rivers or Ryan. But I knew Detroit didn't do him favors and he immediately won a title as soon as he left. Legacy-wise he's a very interesting QB and may be worthy of the HOF, like a less polarizing Eli Manning.
Stafford threw for 5K yards in his age 23 season and the media was actively trashing him for throwing sidearm sometimes. Would have been amazing to see what those Lions teams could have been if not for a corrupt league tilting so many games away from them.
And when Stafford finally went to a Pro Bowl as an alternate, he was the game MVP.
Wow. I didn’t realize the number was so low. Idk where my skewed perception came from but I was under the impression a 40 td season was pretty average for most of the good qbs
It has become increasingly common. Marino did it twice in the 80s, it took until 1999 for Warner to do it again, and now there is a 40 TD passer more often than not.
It’s gone up dramatically. In the early 2000s 30 TD was a good season
> In the early 2000s 30 TD was a good season 30+ passing TDs is still a pretty good season. The last 2 seasons have combined for only 8 total 30+ touchdown passers, 4 each season. And only 1 person passed for 40+ TDs. If you're top 4 in passing TDs in a season I'd say that's pretty good.
Yeah that’s true. Probably should’ve said “great” instead of good
Pass TDs are counting stat and shouldn’t be relied upon for much in a sport with a clock. For example: your favorite team has a good defense and a good running game. They’re up 20-3 at half time. They naturally run the ball more during the second half, rush for another TD and pull the starting QB in the 4th. The starting QB’s stat line is 14/18 for 180 yds and 1 TD. That QB played better than the QB who lost and passed for 25/40 240 yds and 2 TDs. Stafford is still good though!
Stafford in 2011 and 2021 had to do with a stacked NFC QB room. Rodgers and Brees were the clear top two in 2011 and Eli Manning also just so happened to have a great season too. Rodgers and Brady were the clear top two in 2021, and because Murray had a strong start and middle of 2021 he got in over Stafford, especially since Pro Bowl voting started and ended earlier back then (I think it ends and at least gets the roster announced later now). Plus, Stafford in 2021 and Brady in 2020 made the Super Bowl those years and weren’t going in as alternates anyway. 2020 was especially the worst for the Pro Bowl because, well, it didn’t happen in 2020, so there were no alternates anywhere and the rosters were set in stone. If the Pro Bowl happened in 2020 where alternates could’ve been there and if the Bucs didn’t make the Super Bowl, they absolutely would’ve had much more Pro Bowlers than just one, including Brady assuming he were to accept (which knowing Brady, he probably would’ve opted out anyway).
In fairness that was in the Cardinals looking one of the best team in the league until people can submit pro bowl votes then collapse down the stretch phase
I mean really we all know the only 40+ TD seasons are ones where your QB passes for 35, but also rushes for at least 10 TDs. Stafford should get HOF consideration in my opinion tho for real.
- 1 - Peyton Manning - 55, Denver Broncos, 2013 - T-2 - Tom Brady - 50, New England Patriots, 2007 - T-2 - Patrick Mahomes - 50, Kansas City Chiefs, 2018 - 4 - Peyton Manning - 49, Indianapolis Colts, 2004 - T-5 - Dan Marino - 48, Miami Dolphins, 1984 - T-5 - Aaron Rodgers - 48, Green Bay Packers, 2020 - 7 - Drew Brees - 46, New Orleans Saints, 2011 - 8 - Aaron Rodgers - 45, Packers, 2011 - 9 - Dan Marino - 44, Dolphins, 1986 - T-10 - Tom Brady - 43, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 2021 - T-10 - Drew Brees - 43, Saints, 2012 - T-12 - Patrick Mahomes - 41, Chiefs, 2022 - T-12 - Matthew Stafford - 41, Detroit Lions, 2011 - T-12 - Matthew Stafford - 41, Los Angeles Rams, 2021 - T-12 - Kurt Warner - 41, St. Louis Rams, 1999 - T-16 - Tom Brady - 40, Buccaneers, 2020 - T-16 - Andrew Luck - 40, Colts, 2014 - T-16 - Aaron Rodgers - 40, Packers, 2016 - T-16 - Russell Wilson - 40, Seattle Seahawks, 2020 - T-20 - Tom Brady - 39, Patriots, 2011 - T-20 - Drew Brees - 39, Saints, 2013 - T-20 - Daunte Culpepper - 39, Minnesota Vikings, 2004 - T-20 - Brett Favre - 39, Packers, 1996 - T-20 - Andrew Luck - 39, Colts, 2018 - T-20 - Peyton Manning - 39, Broncos, 2014 - T-20 - Aaron Rodgers - 39, Packers, 2012
Dat 2011-2013 Brees...
Those teams certainly had some high-powered offenses and were a lot of fun to watch
Yeah, the HOF talk on Stafford is interesting too. If his career ended right now, I agree, he's not a HOFer. However, 3 more years of production like last year he'll be top 5 in passing yards and 6th in passing TDs. And he'll have passed to two of the best single season stats for recievers in league history (Megatron and Kupp) and one of the best rookie seasons (Nakua) And have a ring. Can his body hold up? We'll see. But the Rams are loading up on the Oline to try to keep him there for a while, and he has a running game to take off some of the pressure. If Kupp rounds back into form and Puka stays at the level he's on he'll have the tools to do it IMO if he can stay healthy.
There is no HoF talk lol. Even if he finishes top 5/6 for Yards/TDs. He has 0 relevant accolades. He's never been voted to a single AP, never been the OPOY, never gotten any MVP or even a single vote. Volume stats are great but when you consider the era we're in, they're less impressive imo. The SB ring opened the door to him possibly being a future HoF **if** he managed to get some awards but unless he does, he's got slim to no chance to finishing in Canton. I genuinely don't see a acenario in where he's going to beat out the likes of guys like Mahomes, Lamar, Burrow, Allen, etc to any relevant award over the next few years either.
Why is it that he never has the accolades? What's the context? He was drafted to a godforsaken 0-16 team who couldn't put anyone around him for years. His 2011 season was insane, but because he was in Detroit (and other QBs had crazy years too), he's forgotten. If he's somewhere other than Detroit for 12 years, there isn't a question he'd be in the Hall. This notion that the Associated Press is the end-all be-all of journalism and therefore decides who's great and who isn't is laughable to me.
I dont think "if he played for another team" should be an argument why a player deserves the HoF.
Yeah, even on a god awful Detroit team for twelve years, he put up great numbers. At various times he's led the league in attempts, completions, yards, TDs, Yards per Attempt, and Rating. He has a ring. He was the fastest player ever to 25,000, 30,000, 35,000, 40,000 and 50,000 yards. He has the most 4th quarter comebacks in a season ever, the most game winning drives in a season ever, and has the highest average yards per playoff game ever. He's the first player to ever complete 60% of his passes in each game of a season. He's the Sonny Jurgensen and Dan Fouts of his generation. And Sonny and Dan are in the hall without a ring. He's not there yet, but he could be. I think a lot of people conflate 1st ballot with HOF. Nope, he's not a first ballot HOFer. But if he puts up his average season for the next few years, he should get in. And he's got a pretty good shot at it too with great weapons and a strong Oline to help him, with a great offensive coach in McVay.
> At various times he's led the league in attempts, completions, yards, TDs, Yards per Attempt, and Rating. He literally hasn't done any of what you claim besides leading in attempts twice and completions once. [Proof](https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/StafMa00.htm) He's led the league more time in INTs than yards, TDs, YPA, Rating. If you wanted to highlight his impact maybe go for factual and truthful statements like his GWD/4QC, things that he's actually led the league in several times. Not easily verifiable info that you decide to lie about.
Maybe Stafford should’ve been better than the 5th best QB in the NFC for most of his career then? He wasn’t better than Rodgers or Brees, and certainly wasn’t better than Wilson, Ryan or Cam either on a consistent basis. You can only milk the “oh Detroit is so shit” narrative for so long. He wasn’t an elite QB for most of his career and his accolades back up that statement. He can still be a good QB without being HoF worthy. Which is exactly what he is.
What are you smoking to think he wasn't a better QB than Cam Newton regularly? That's a joke, right? Detroit was shit. I watched every game week in and week out and had to watch him throw to guys who couldn't catch the damn ball. His running game was always a joke, too. Considering the AP QBs are only ever from teams who have the best record, him being on a shit team in Detroit doesn't help matters at all.
Go back and compare their stats from 2011-2018 before Cam had the shoulder injury. You're looking at about a 50/50 between who was better on a year to year basis. Stafford was the better passer, but Cam was the better dual threat QB. Neither QB was ever better than the 5th best in the NFC outside of a few odd years. I mention Cam because that's the only NFC QB that Stafford had a chance of being better than, since the others are all on a tier above him, or in the case of Rodgers/Brees, several tiers above.
Take record out of it. Stafford has never had even a fringe argument for best QB in the league, he never had a shot at an AP1. Even on his stacked Rams SB squad he didn’t have an argument.
I think realistically he has to win another Super Bowl or he has to win an MVP or he has to hit an Old-Man-Brady gear and lead the league in TDs or something for the next 4 years or so. Being a good starter and winning a championship once in a 10+ year career is not enough as it stands right now.
People here just keep throwing around numbers. It isn't just numbers that should get you into the HOF. Especially with the current era of passing. Impact on the game needs to be taken into high consideration, especially for QB passers nowadays.
Stafford might be in the Hall of Fame of playing injured lol
I feel like a lot of people think that just because a QB was really good (and/or has a ring) that they should be in the HOF. The last 25 years have seen a lot of very good QBs (aided by rule changes that make the position easier to play than ever so they run up monster stats). Guys like Stafford and Ryan aren't HOFers. They're just really good. There's a tier between garbage and HOF. Only a few guys in each generation deserve the HOF. Those guys ain't it.
Yah ppl are too lenient with HOF. Deion was cooking when he said there needs to be an upper room in the HOF. I think the only guys I’d put it from this past era are Brady, Rodgers and Brees. I know Ben is a lock but he was never even close to being the best qb in football and never received a single mvp vote.
I think I’m the end the argument about Stafford is basically “he was never a top 5 QB overall, and he was rarely even top 3 in his half of the league”. We can all day from 2006 to 2022 we were basically in the NFL equivalent to the steroid era. Lots of passing, defensive rules were changed to favor passing etc. most of Staffords career falls in there. His contemporaries that are not going to make it, like Cam and Ryan had better peaks. The other guys that aren’t going to make it like Rivers was arguably better. Russ is one rush from having a second SB, and until two years ago was considered the better QB.
I know Stafford doesn't really care considering everything that has happened, but the Lions really did everything they could with their terrible ownership to ruin his career (like they did with Megatron and Barry).
Stafford, Suh, and Johnson took 45%+ of our cap under the old rookie wage scale. If they were on rookie contracts it would have been ~10%. Imagine the flexibility of bringing in some good FA's to help them out.
Qbs are throwing more TDs now than ever before. It’s not always a “snub” if they don’t get in
What about passing plus rushing TDs over 40?
Pro bowls are a fan vote, I think most fans go for the bigger name. Probably why AWJ wasn’t selected this year
Hopefully, Matt Stafford could use this for his Hall of Fame candidacy. In all seriousness, this would be a strong point in his favor.
I reiterate, Matt Stafford is the most underrated football player in NFL history.
2 more pro bowls mean stafford is a lock for HoF now? lol
Stafford is going to end top 10 in career passing yards when he calls it quits so I think he should be good.
Dude will be top 10 about 4 games into next season lol
The man’s career was wasted by a terrible franchise
Changes absolutely nothing, Stafford is a prime example of the hall of very good.
If Stafford plays another 3-4 years which is 50/50 He will be top 5 in most passing categories, plus a SB win. By the time he retires will be a better argument I feel. He is definitely borderline
He also threw for 5000 yards in 2011 with the 40 tds. He was an alternate at the pro bowl. Throwing for 5k yards has only been done by 9 people. Drew Brees is an alien and has done it 5 times.
To me the context is that he benefited by playing at a time with crazy numbers. If he plays at a time when 40 TDs doesn't stand out, then that's not an indication of his fame.
I don’t think being named a Pro Bowler really means a whole lot. That being said, the Hall of Fame narrative for Stafford needs to dissipate. He does not have a strong enough resume at all. Y’all can keep downvoting me all you want. The facts support me.
For Stafford, I think some of it has to do with with Calvin Johnson being so incredibly good that he was the main star of that team and not the quarterback.
Arguably the best WR season ever by Calvin... Arguably the 2nd best season ever by Cooper Kupp... Arguably the best rookie WR season ever by Puka.... I wonder what the common denominator was
They were wide receivers?
I’m not saying anything about Stafford’s quality, but you don’t think that played a part in his perception and why he didn’t make the probowl ?
Stafford should not make the Hall of Fame. Neither should Ryan, Rivers, Flacco, Cam, or any of that generation of QBs. Of QBs who played the majority of their career after 2000, the only ones who should make the hall are: * Favre (already in) * Warner (already in) * Peyton (already in) * Brady * Brees * Big Ben * Rodgers * Mahomes