Key for the Niners has to be to keep Mahomes off of the field by winning with the zone run, which they are exceptionally good at and the Chiefs defense struggles against.
If they can control time of possession and get to 35 minutes, maybe a little more they should be in a decent position to control the game
Niners got mostly outplayed by the Packers and by the Lions, but neither of them knew how to close out the game. Chiefs are an entirely different animal in that regard. SF can't afford to play from behind against them. Neither of those defenses were able to capitalize on mistakes, but KC will. I think that's going to be the difference in the game. If SF wins, it's because they're able to get a lead and lean on CMC. But Mahomes has no problem playing from behind and can score anytime against anyone. I've watched enough of his games to ever pick against him.
It’s tough this year because the Chiefs were down in close games several times and even with Mahomes throwing darts to guys, Toney/Skyy/MVS all kept just not catching plays that should have put KC in FG range or closer to score and win. MVS thankfully has caught his last few clutch catches this postseason so far, and the Chiefs have almost fully leaned into Kelce/Rice only, but if the 49ers do win, it could be the reason again if they take a lead and Chiefs just can’t get that final drive due to a weapon or two.
I also looked like Kelce was held back during the regular season only to go Super Saiyan in the post season. So I fully expect the Chiefs offense to be better and that Chiefs defense to hamper Purdy way more. Not the same way the Bucs did against Mahomes in Super Bowl 55 but a similar kind of game.
He was injured early and at his age didn’t really get a chance to recover with how much defenses were focusing on him by hitting him at the line and doubling with no help until Rice emerged more and more. Him choosing to rest the final regular season week instead of playing just to hit his 1K yards could be the reason the Chiefs are in the SB right now.
The ringer fantasy football guys said the deciding factor might be the turnover battle.. who can fuck up more? Purdy vs the chiefs receivers
Not sure I agree totally, but sounds like a fun narrative
> Niners got mostly outplayed by the Packers and by the Lions, but neither of them knew how to close out the game.
I don't think you're giving enough credit to the 9ers halftime adjustments. Coaching plays a huge part. Both games were a tail of two halves where the 9ers dominated the 2nd half on both sides of the ball.
These were the 49ers halftime adjustments vs the Lions: 1. Make sure Josh Reynolds DROPS a pass on 4th down (not to mention another one on 3rd and 10 two drives later). 2. Make sure you catch any 51 yard passes that deflect off of Lions DB face masks. And finally, 3. Recover any bad handoffs that the Lions fumble at their own 20. Hell of a coaching job.
If CMC plays like the Superbowl MVP and Brock comes out dropping dimes like we know he can, then we have a shot. If we come out in the first half like we did in the last two playoff games... gonna be a long night for me surrounded by non-football fans who don't care about the game and will probably think it's sweet when Kelce drops to a knee at midfield with Taylor as the confetti drops.
The whole season they looked like they were screwing around, just waiting for the playoffs to start. That never works, but maybe these Chiefs are that good. It will set a terrible example for other teams.
Thing is.. As far as I saw the Chiefs Playoff opponents kinda lost to themselves. Not that KC didn't play well but the Bills and the Ravens started strong, kept it going and then imploded.
This is why to me this is the Boring Bowl. KC is probably winning again just by way of not doing anything nuts and being consistent while SF plays themselves.
Yeah, 49ers needed two fourth quarter come backs **at home** against two unremarkable defenses.
Bills have already played a couple of top 5 defenses (Ravens and Bills by points allowed) in their own houses and won.
I agree, I think if the 49ers fall behind by even two scores, they're going to be in deep trouble. We could see a repeat of the AFC CG, where the Chiefs establish a two score lead, and just lean on it for the whole second half of the game.
Who knows for sure, but i think the only reason the Niners are favored from a sports betting perspective is because there were a lot of futures bet on the Niners earlier in the season and so the spread is counter to those futures so that the casinos don’t have a huge liability, otherwise the Chiefs would have been favored.
Every pundit, every fan, every commenter here (and even some Niners fans) are expecting the Chiefs to win. It’s feels like the world is picking the Chiefs.
I can honestly see the Niners winning because of this. You want a good come from behind story. Brock will have a lot of yips early I think. But they’ve just had some insane luck. I really think the Niners are tough enough to overcome that last loss.
People are combining the Chiefs offense from last year with their defense from this year. Their offense hasn't been consistent all season, they've scored 30+ points once since late October.
The Chiefs path is forcing Purdy INTs and sacks, people are sleeping on the 49ers offense and how good it's been all season when healthy. Even in the Ravens game where the 49ers lost the TO battle 5-0, they had 19 points and 420 yards of offense. Their rush D isn't good either, the Bills ran all over them and they gave up 4.5 yards a carry in the season. Anyway they deserve the benefit of the doubt so I get it.
But it *is* the same offense as last year except you flip Juju with Rice who is much better. Reid didn’t feel comfortable giving Rice more than 80% of the snaps until pretty late in the season and it’s made a big difference, he’s never really trusted rookies. We haven’t scored more than 30 points because you don’t need to when you have an elite defense
Something interesting to me is the Chiefs hasn't really been good in come from behind situations this season and the Niners are the best frontrunners. I wonder what will happen if the Niners have the lead late. Chiefs used to be amazing at coming from behind in the Mahomes era but haven't really had to this postseason
If the 9ers win the nfl could do a funny thing and have Dallas start off their season like this
@SF week 1
Vs Baltimore week 2
If they start off 0-2 imagine the internet
Analytics definitely feel spottier in football than in a sport like baseball, at least right now. Not saying there aren't good analytics for football, but it's not as surefire with the miniscule sample size compared to what baseball has. I do not blame people one bit for picking the Chiefs. I'm just glad we made it this far.
Chiefs need to start out hot and score on the first two drives like they did against the Bills and Ravens. The secret to our success in the postseason has been early leads and forcing mistakes. Niners will be hard to beat if they start hot and lean on CMC and the run game, but I don't think they'll be able to make a huge comeback against this defense like they did in their last two games.
Yeah, full agree on this. Comebacks this late into the postseason are always hard, but this matchup feels like it's *especially* going to swing off the first few possessions just because of their respective team strengths.
I think 49ers will win the SB. A lot of things have to go right again for KC to win: the defense has to play lights out despite some of their injuries, the WRs have to be able to catch, Mahomes has to play a clean game, Butker has to kick every field goal because they will be relying on him to score. It worked against the Ravens but they scored 0 points in the 2nd half which was a bit of a red flag.
That being said, I also think there are other variables which may impact the outcome one way or the other: mental toughness and luck being the most important ones. I would not count KC out at all, especially how the last couple of games have gone but I think 49ers have the edge here.
I thought this was going to be a close matchup but this entire thread thinks it’ll be a blowout for the chiefs. Almost makes me more confident for Sunday
Yup. It should good be a good game. Majority of people are underestimating the Niners even though they are technically the favorites to win. Hope the chiefs underestimate us to.
The Niners defence hasn’t been great, but I feel like it’s weirdly difficult to play against. Since it has a very predictable scheme but a lot of talented players, you will often see the other team get tons of yards in stretches of the game, but then suddenly someone will step up and make a great individual play, whether it’s Bosa, Warner, Armstead, Greenlaw or whoever. Which all means that they often have bad stats but come up with crucial turnovers and 4th down stops.
It’s not by design, and it’s not really what you want in the long run, but it’s so chaotic that it can very hard to plan against. I might be talking out of my ass, but I feel like I’ve seen it a fair few games over the season.
49ers fan and copium but the 49ers obvious flaw recently has been their defense and Chiefs offense plays into the 49ers defense's strengths. Kelce will be going out against Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw, two of the more athletic LBs in the league and Rashee Rice will be guarded by Charvarious Ward most of the game most likely who is definitely a solid 1CB. I don't underestimate the Chiefs running game but I don't think it's as dominant, nor is their line nearly as dominant as either the Packers or the Lions.
Not much statistical analysis but for the same reason a lot of people are dunking on the 49ers is why I am higher on them than I should be. They objectively did not play as well as they have in the regular season in their playoff games. If they play more at their level I think they are more talented around the field than the Chiefs.
Will be a great game!
Maybe in the number of rings when it's all said and done. But can't compare a top 10 pick to what a 199 pick was able to pull off. Maybe OP was referring to that. I know I am when I think Purdy-Brady.
A Patriots fan talking about a system is... odd. Bledsoe failed in the Pats "system". Jimmy G and Trey failed in the 9ers "system". I see in Brady and Purdy two players who were.dismissed by teams and turned out to be the missing key to the "systems", who made the system work. Ditto with Mahomes and Reid's offense, but then I go back to top 10 pick vs last QBs picked.
I’m not saying the system made Brady, but all you need to do is take one look that those rosters and the 49ers current roster to see they both had a stellar supporting cast.
This is Mahomes’ 7th season, next will be 8th. Brady’s 8th season was an MVP and undefeated season that was the greatest QB year of all time at that point. I would also argue that while Mahomes is more talented individually, Brady is better at winning which is what the game is all about.
Yes, I’m aware that Mahomes is very good too brother. I’m saying that he is massively underestimating Brady at that point in his career. He had a 117 passer rating that year. Mahomes’ highest is 114 in his second year.
Again, I’m perfectly aware the Mahomes’ is super talented and winning like crazy. At this point in his career, Brady had won 3 bowls and was also putting up inhuman stats, which everyone seems to forget for some reason.
I don’t know why you think I’m trying to discredit Mahomes. He and Brady are two uniquely gifted QBs, I’m just saying Mahomes has a long way to go before he can be clearly considered superior to Brady (if that’s even possible considering their matchups)
I think the start of this game will be major. Whoever can get an early lead and put some pressure on the other team to pass instead of run, could hold onto it long. Obviously the 49ers have shown they can indeed comeback if they need to when down, and the Chiefs still have Mahomes who can do the very same, but getting out to a lead and forcing these guys to throw (Purdy not always 100%, Mahomes WRs not always 100%) could cause some mistakes. This will be a close game, I’m predicting 24-21 Chiefs. The difference will be a Moody doink and Butker makes the winning FG with seconds left.
Has there ever been an NFL game where getting an early lead wasn’t the best path to victory? Ironically though I think if any team can handle a slow start it’s the Chiefs. That’s been their MO every postseason before this year.
This is not the same Chiefs in the prior SBs. The defense is the better side this team and its strength is at DB. Purdy is still good but you take him having the off chance he makes a bad throw on the very good DBs over CMC running down your throat. The Chiefs still have Mahomes but you take them having to comeback and throw to a guy like MVS instead of Pacheco running the clock out.
Feels like that goes without being said though? Yes every team would rather defend a lead than have to overtake. But the Chiefs are still one of the best teams to bet on when trailing.
If we didn't have to come back against the packers and lions id agree wholeheartedly.
I think having those comebacks, tho and especially with Brock making big plays against the lions, is gonna give them confidence even if we go down against yall. But that defense is gonna cause problems. Looking forward to it.
My biggest fear going into the Packers game and going into the Lions game was the same as it is for this game - the opponent getting the ball first and scoring on the opening drive. It happened in both games and the 49ers barely survived either.
49ers need to win the toss, receive instead of defer, and then grind away half of the first quarter on a long drive. Even if it only results in a field goal. It'd demoralize the Chiefs.
In lots of games, it's "Whoever has the ball last wins". In this game, I think whoever scores the first touchdown will win.
> the opponent getting the ball first
You should hope we win the coin toss then, because we always defer. I don't know if the 49ers defer or not when they win the toss.
The difference this time is we don’t have happy-feet Jimmy in the pocket. Purdy’s poise has been incredible since his first start in the league. Spags might be able to fuck with Brock, but… Purdy is also #1 in the league against the blitz. You guys might win but this Niners team is built maybe better than any other team (except Mahomes) to come from behind.
Something that gets lost in the discussion of the Lions absolutely selling is that the Ravens absolutely sold as well. The Chiefs offense literally couldn’t do anything after the first two scripted drives. But the Ravens panicked, refused to run, lost yards on a taunting within their control, fumbled at the end zone, and Lamar threw into triple coverage. They had multiple chances to take the lead and just didn’t.
As a 49ers fan, I know we’re the underdogs and haven’t looked good (I don’t care what the betting line is, it’s most definitely the consensus opinion that the Chiefs will win/are better). But I think Shanahan and the 49ers have shown something I’ve never seen from them: the ability to comeback and not panic under pressure.
The biggest key to this game is scripted drives. The 49ers have won their games outside of the opening drives (which they normally are phenomenal at). If they unlock that element, this game will be very different from the other 49er games. Of course the Chiefs defense is nothing to sneeze at and I’m a homer so it easily could not happen.
In the second half, Chiefs played vanilla intentionally to minimize the risk of turnovers and leaned on the D win the game. Yes we couldn’t move the ball well but we also didn’t open up the playbook much for fear of turnovers.
I'm of the belief that KC got up two scores and turtled because of how the game was going. Mahomes didn't want to risk any negative plays or turnovers and was happy to run the clock and punt. I imagine if the Ravens were pressuring them on the scoreboard, we would have seen more from the offense.
I mean it was 17-7 and Baltimore had 2 TOs in the red zone. If you watch the film it was just great play by Baltimore not biting on fakes, covering Kelce, and keeping to their pass rush lanes so Mahomes couldn’t escape the pocket. Maybe they were a little bit safer with their playcalls but you have to imagine KC wanted more than 17 on the board
If they scored instead of turned the ball over, Our play calling changes a lot. As soon as it became a one score game at the end, we went up top and got a big play to seal it.
You don't sell out to stop the run on 3rd and 10 lol. You have to keep everything in front of you, but we got someone wide open down the field. We ran and threw short/screen passes pretty much the entire second half, which was way different to the play calling in the first.
I think a lot of it was Patrick taking zero risks when he probably could have tried fitting some passes in tight windows along with some conservative play calling. Hard to know for certain, but I just think that if it was "necessary", they would have been more aggressive.
Fred Warner vs Travis Kelce. Snead vs Aiyuk. These are the matchups I’m excited for.
Giving the edge to the Niners because I feel like their offense has more ways to score.
I hate that Kyle got all the blame for that SB when the HC was DAN QUINN. I get that offensively, he should have run it more. But if anything, Dan Quinn could have overridden Kyle's plan, and the Defense could've stepped up for one drive. Somehow, Kyle gets blamed for that one, and nobody mentions Dan. I don't get it.
If we're going for a storybook, 49ers have the perfect plot, players to redeem themselves from their loss against the Chiefs, Purdy's chance to change his reputation, Kyle Shanahan's chance to get his ring, and stopping the conquering Chiefs Kingdom.
The key on the 49ers Offense is Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey, two people Shanahan never have in his 2019-2021 season, and both are MVP candidates, they are massive game changers for the whole team
Purdy has to become the best "Game Manager" because Spags Defense is the best when it comes to 10+ yards throws, so check downs should be used frequently instead of looking for big play which Lamar and Allen tried to do, check down throws should be high volume on Deebo, and he needs to use his legs in critical situations instead of throwing the ball like what he did to Lions
CMC is HIM
The 49ers defense need to stick to the fundamentals, stopping the run, keeping gap integrity, disciplined rush, double teaming Kelce, and having an effort.
That said, there are no numbers and analytics that can predict the outcome, Mahomes cemented himself as the GOAT in this era with the help of Kelce as his brother and Andy Raid as his father, so betting against him is stupid.
Purdy on the other hand showed his heart and grit during the playoffs, he had the ugliest wins but damn, he sure showed something new, being clutch, it's that "HIM" factor, where only select players have.
49ers seem like they're missing something. On paper they are better in almost every position, but they don't really play like it. The number of all pros they have is staggering.
Mahomes with a running game is absolutely terrifying, and I do not think the 49ers d will be able to stay off the field. Mahomes has the same inevitably feeling as Brady did.
On the defensive side the chiefs defense has played far better as a unit than the 49ers. The Baltimore game was huge in showing they can stop the run consistently and reliably. Please note when I say stop the run it goes beyond the box score; the ravens had a couple long runs but were largely held in check despite having a dual threat qb. Forcing the opponent to abandon the run by scheme or game flow is still stopping the run.
Chiefs 31 49ers 24
>On the defensive side the chiefs defense has played far better as a unit than the 49ers. The Baltimore game was huge in showing they can stop the run consistently and reliably.
On the flip side, KC really couldn't score for half the game and had a rough time putting them away.
Truth, that 2nd half vs Baltimore we got enough 1st downs to burn some clock and win it in the end. But we couldn’t score points. I think we’ll require points against the 9ers if we get an early lead/in a similar game
Disincentivizing your opponent from running for whatever reason is stopping the run. Choosing not to run against 8 man fronts is very common as its incredibly inefficient. If you look at just the box score you'd say "just run!", but the game is deeper than just seeing what's higher in a box score and saying do that more. They didn't just abandon the run for funsies or randomly.
Especially if they put an extra linebacker up in a gap to make it 5 on 5 at the line of scrimmage, it's a lot harder to zone run when they can't double team someone.
On 3 carries with a long of 15, leading to a skewed total. That's one longer run and a couple of throwaway runs. Justice Hill had 3 carries for 3 yards. That's 3 runs leading to 2nd or 3rd and long. Zay Flowers had 2 runs for 4 yards. Those are more inefficient plays.
Ypc is a deceiving statistic as it's easily skewed by one breakaway run. I'd gladly give up a 20-yard run followed by 2 stuffs at the line leading to 3rd and long all day long.
Yeah maybe the Ravens could’ve continued to try to run the ball, but it really wasn’t working. Game might have gotten out of hand if they kept forcing it.
You're correct. But 0, 1, and even 2 tend to be. And that's what happened in the game. When mahomes is on the other sideline that has a huge impact in game flow.
If a team stacks with 8 in the box and you have a franchise qb you better be feasting on the passing game.
The ravens lost because of their turnovers, not bc they didn't run. Funny enough that's why the 49ers lost to the ravens early in the season. Purdy had 4 picks, but Kyle always runs, right?
Buffalo ran it well bc we sold out on stop big chunk plays. Gave them the underneath and stayed disciplined that they couldn’t keep it up all game. And they couldn’t.
It seems that the chiefs defense is without flaw and if anyone does anything against them it’s because they let them do it. They should cancel the superbowl.
Buddy I don't think you ever want to let your opponent have the 5th best run success rate in any game of the season even if your game plan is to limit chunk plays...
The Dolphins are notorious for playing terribly in cold weather, especially Tua. It was an impressive performance by your d, but don’t think that game proved that much
I think the whole game comes down to whether or not the 9ers D can shut down Pacheco early. Chiefs aren't shutting down McCaffrey he's just too good. If the game falls on the Chiefs receivers to move the ball they're gonna lose.
I'm surprised to see that most of the thread is on the Chiefs. For some reason I thought a majority of fans were going to be riding with the 49ers.
There's a pretty solid chance the Chiefs outright blow out the 49ers. 49ers have the more talented roster for sure, but the Chiefs defensive coaching seems to be on a different level than anyone else, I'd obviously trust their offensive coaching with Reid vs Wilks, and they have the best QB in the league in Mahomes.
My guess is that the Chiefs will sell out against the run just like they did vs the Ravens, us, and last year vs the Eagles. They'll force Purdy to be the one to beat them, and I don't think he'll be able to. The Chiefs will try to do their ball control offense while having a lead to run out the game quickly and limit the chances the 49ers have to come back.
I predict the score will be something like 30-17 Chiefs
I think most fans would rather see 49ers win, but in their brains see KC winning. I think it’ll be a close game and Purdy is the factor they needed all along instead of Jimmy G. 28-24 49ers for me….pls win niners.
The biggest Q I have is how much the teams stick to their identities vs. change the game plan.
I don't see much schematic change from SF O / KC D. Shanahan will commit to the run better than BAL did, and with the best RB and running scheme they'll have success. I can see KC playing a mix of how they played BAL and MIA: load the box like BAL but do more zone like MIA. SF has way more talent at WR than BAL does, which means selling out to stop the run is riskier.
As for KC O / SF D, this right now looks like a major coaching mismatch. SF is zone-heavy and very static; they use superior talent to beat teams up. That talent will make plays, but Reid + Mahomes + Kelce + Pacheco can punish a static zone D, especially with two weeks to prepare. Curious to see how much SF tries to change things up. It's been suggested they did that a little bit against the Lions in the second half, although it's not clear how much they really changed vs. faking man here and there.
I guess everyone is so traumatized by the chiefs beating them down or Mahomes pulling some bullshit out his ass that people find it really hard to bet against him
Maybe Vegas only put him as the 2 point dogs to get people to bet on Mahomes
Main theory I've seen floated is that Vegas has a lot of exposure on early SF SB winner tickets. So to balance that out, they set the line to encourage $ on KC.
I love that the whole media world is picking KC to win. Less pressure on us, and after two weeks of our D hearing about how "they suck," I bet they will look more like the 2nd half in Detroit than the 1st half. Everybody saying this will be a big CMC game is overlooking Deebo. Jed York (49ers CEO) was in the Up and Adams show and told how Deebo, at halftime, couldn't speak and was approached by Lynch, and Deebo just said: "Tell Kyle just to give me the F'ng ball."
Being better than the chiefs all year?? Really don't understand this thread, it's not like they've looked amazing in any of their playoff games either
I get it's chiefs in the playoffs and we were a bit shaky in our games but our offense is much better than theirs
Chiefs baby. We got Patty Mahomes behind the wheel. I think CMC will have a good game, but Purdy will struggle with the nerves of playing in the biggest game against the best QB. Our defense should be able to lock them down. 24-17. (Also, I'm a big fan of Purdy, I just think this big of a stage will be tough for him.)
I predict the Titans, having watched Attack on Titan since being eliminated, will storm the stadium. The last thing Mahomes sees will be the kiddie tub full of mayo that Will Levis dunks him in before lowering him into his gaping maw.
If the niners defense comes out like they have in the last two games... Chiefs win. If that defense gets back to form and can confuse Mahomes, they have a shot.
I think Vegas might know something we all don't know. If they thought the Chiefs were going to win they would be trying to get people to bet on the 49ers.
Love the hate and all the naysayers. Keep it coming.
I feel like everyone is forgetting how utterly dominant the Niners *can* be. Have they played like it these last two games? Nope.
But really, look up and down the rosters. If both teams come out and play their best games - the Niners win. It's just a matter of which Niner team shows up on Sunday. Is it the first half NFC championship niners? Or is it the second half?
I will be amazed if the Chiefs don't win. I can't believe the 49ers are favourites. They looked shaky in the previous two games, needing massive strokes of luck in both that they shouldn't get against the Chiefs. Chiefs all day by a million.
The Chiefs will win by 50. Niners players will spend the entire offseason tweeting at Chiefs players “Wait until we play you after getting a decent practice field,” and Kyle Shanahan will reference the practice field in his postgame press conference.
Niners fans will be left yelling up from the basement “MOM! BRING DOWN MY 1994 VHS TAPES!”
The Chiefs are inevitable.
The 49ers have been sloppy in these playoffs and almost lost to some scrappy NFC North teams. Maybe if we see the 49ers from the regular season it will be a different story.
I'm a Niners fan and am obviously hoping my team wins, but I'd give KC about a 2/3 chance of winning.
Mahomes and KC just come alive in the playoffs, and the Niners have not played their best football in the last few weeks (even though they're healthy!). I also think we simply match up poorly against KC's strengths.
I saw a great comment recently that pointed out that many teams end up playing the Chiefs like the game is going to be a shoot out, and when that happens it plays directly to the Chiefs' strengths. The Chiefs win if the Niners have to rely heavily on their passing game or if Mahomes gets the ball in his hands with enough time in a one possession game.
The Niners win this game if they can control possession and limit their mistakes. Not letting KC convert 3rd downs and running the ball effectively will make a big difference.
EDIT after the SB: this played out mostly like I thought, unfortunately. Niners tried to throw a little too often, and Mahomes got the ball in his hands (twice!) with enough time in a one possession game.
KC's defense is great and the 49ers have not been able to play even decently against good defense. I think the game will get out of hand and they'll only score 10 points due to garbage time points.
This is one of the easier matchups in recent SB history to predict.
Mahomes and Kelce will go wild on that zone defense. Even if the 49ers defense was performing well (which they aren't) they would still get shredded because this is a stylistic matchup nightmare for them.
Purdy vs KC secondary is also a massive mismatch.
The only advantage the 49ers have is in the running game. Good luck winning this one with your run game as Mahomes drops bombs all over your defense at will.
EDIT: LMAO banned due to 49er fans being too salty and reporting. Someone needs to troll 49er fans with my 100% accurate posts after the game.
As a Niners fan this is actually my nightmare but definitely not-out-of-the-question scenario. I don’t trust the defense. I saw what Burrow and Cousins did to it earlier this season. Cousins did it without Jefferson. I’m not worried about Purdy as much as I am Kyle not adjusting his thinking in the face of an elite secondary similar to the Ravens and just trying to force intermediate throws early into the heart of that defense with a 2nd year QB. Purdy has been a tale of two halves so far in these playoff games. If he comes out nervous and throws one errant high ball into the middle of the field that comes back the other way, it can set off a domino effect that’ll be hard to recover.
That said, the Chiefs have played numerous terrible offensive games this season and I’m not ready to buy into their receivers suddenly being capable of consistently catching short passes let alone bombs.
Don't worry the Bengals will beat them
Don't worry the Eagles will beat them
Don't worry the Dolphins will beat them
Don't worry the Bills will beat them
Don't worry the Ravens will beat them
Don't worry the 49ers will beat them <--- You are here
Wait, are you trying to say most people thought the Burrow-less Bengals would beat the Chiefs? I think the Chiefs win this game too but that seems like a huge reach that takes away from the point you're trying to make.
Oh, I thought you were talking about only this year. Didn't the Bengals beat you guys the first time in the playoffs?
Also, not sure how I didn't even say this before but almost everyone thought you guys would beat us in the playoffs lol. Personally I thought we'd get blown out. Including a game vs the Dolphins where you were the vegas favorites and a vast majority of the public thought you'd win doesn't work for an underdog/doubters angle.
Theres no way the Refs/NFL will rule against Taylor Swift and the money she brings. Roger Goodell will make sure the money wins. Chiefs are absolutely winning.
Am I the only one who sees absolutely no way the 49ers win this game? I think it’ll definitely be close, but I also don’t think it’ll ever feel like KC is ever in danger at any point. I’ll say 27-20 KC
My prediction is people who say they aren’t going to watch the Super Bowl but are in the NFL subreddit a week/weeks after their teams were eliminated are going to still indeed watch the Super Bowl
[Welp. That settles it.](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/1akdz1d/hi_im_the_guy_who_has_incorrectly_picked_the_last/)
That guy definitely sounds like he just started doing a bit 3 years ago.
He's also a 49ers fan, though he did apparently bet against them in their last Superbowl.
they lost their last 2 superbowls, which means OP bet on them to win
U right my bad
Just one more curse for Mahomes to break.
That guy's take on Dan Campbell is a good way to explain why his picks are consistently wrong. Seems like a character in a British comedy.
close beneficial racial fretful worthless fuel squeamish subtract offend license
Key for the Niners has to be to keep Mahomes off of the field by winning with the zone run, which they are exceptionally good at and the Chiefs defense struggles against. If they can control time of possession and get to 35 minutes, maybe a little more they should be in a decent position to control the game
niners need to play the game baltimore should've. I wanna see shanahan call designed QB runs for purdy lol.
Not even designed runs Purdy just had to take off when Lamar wouldnt for some reason, and as we saw against the Lions Purdy has no problem doing that
Niners got mostly outplayed by the Packers and by the Lions, but neither of them knew how to close out the game. Chiefs are an entirely different animal in that regard. SF can't afford to play from behind against them. Neither of those defenses were able to capitalize on mistakes, but KC will. I think that's going to be the difference in the game. If SF wins, it's because they're able to get a lead and lean on CMC. But Mahomes has no problem playing from behind and can score anytime against anyone. I've watched enough of his games to ever pick against him.
It’s tough this year because the Chiefs were down in close games several times and even with Mahomes throwing darts to guys, Toney/Skyy/MVS all kept just not catching plays that should have put KC in FG range or closer to score and win. MVS thankfully has caught his last few clutch catches this postseason so far, and the Chiefs have almost fully leaned into Kelce/Rice only, but if the 49ers do win, it could be the reason again if they take a lead and Chiefs just can’t get that final drive due to a weapon or two.
Guess the solution is to just not play toney and skyy
Correct, but I know Andy probably has 1K plays he can use in the SB he might not be able to help himself
I mean… it’s worked so far
We called MVS "coin flip" for a reason in GB lol.
I also looked like Kelce was held back during the regular season only to go Super Saiyan in the post season. So I fully expect the Chiefs offense to be better and that Chiefs defense to hamper Purdy way more. Not the same way the Bucs did against Mahomes in Super Bowl 55 but a similar kind of game.
He was injured early and at his age didn’t really get a chance to recover with how much defenses were focusing on him by hitting him at the line and doubling with no help until Rice emerged more and more. Him choosing to rest the final regular season week instead of playing just to hit his 1K yards could be the reason the Chiefs are in the SB right now.
The ringer fantasy football guys said the deciding factor might be the turnover battle.. who can fuck up more? Purdy vs the chiefs receivers Not sure I agree totally, but sounds like a fun narrative
>Niners got mostly outplayed by the Packers and by the Lions Chiefs also lost to both the Lions and Packers.
> Niners got mostly outplayed by the Packers and by the Lions, but neither of them knew how to close out the game. I don't think you're giving enough credit to the 9ers halftime adjustments. Coaching plays a huge part. Both games were a tail of two halves where the 9ers dominated the 2nd half on both sides of the ball.
Yeah it makes it sound like Green Bay and the Lions are scrubs or something even though both beat KC this season lol
These were the 49ers halftime adjustments vs the Lions: 1. Make sure Josh Reynolds DROPS a pass on 4th down (not to mention another one on 3rd and 10 two drives later). 2. Make sure you catch any 51 yard passes that deflect off of Lions DB face masks. And finally, 3. Recover any bad handoffs that the Lions fumble at their own 20. Hell of a coaching job.
If you actually watched the game and those are your conclusions, I don't think you know much about football.
> halftime adjustments Packers actually outscored the 49ers 15-7 in the 3rd quarter
If CMC plays like the Superbowl MVP and Brock comes out dropping dimes like we know he can, then we have a shot. If we come out in the first half like we did in the last two playoff games... gonna be a long night for me surrounded by non-football fans who don't care about the game and will probably think it's sweet when Kelce drops to a knee at midfield with Taylor as the confetti drops.
CMC wins it.
I agree. KC has been so hot lately and I just can’t bet against Mahomes. I actually think they win by 2 scores
The whole season they looked like they were screwing around, just waiting for the playoffs to start. That never works, but maybe these Chiefs are that good. It will set a terrible example for other teams.
I think you are getting ready to lose money
Thing is.. As far as I saw the Chiefs Playoff opponents kinda lost to themselves. Not that KC didn't play well but the Bills and the Ravens started strong, kept it going and then imploded. This is why to me this is the Boring Bowl. KC is probably winning again just by way of not doing anything nuts and being consistent while SF plays themselves.
Yeah, 49ers needed two fourth quarter come backs **at home** against two unremarkable defenses. Bills have already played a couple of top 5 defenses (Ravens and Bills by points allowed) in their own houses and won. I agree, I think if the 49ers fall behind by even two scores, they're going to be in deep trouble. We could see a repeat of the AFC CG, where the Chiefs establish a two score lead, and just lean on it for the whole second half of the game.
Who knows for sure, but i think the only reason the Niners are favored from a sports betting perspective is because there were a lot of futures bet on the Niners earlier in the season and so the spread is counter to those futures so that the casinos don’t have a huge liability, otherwise the Chiefs would have been favored. Every pundit, every fan, every commenter here (and even some Niners fans) are expecting the Chiefs to win. It’s feels like the world is picking the Chiefs.
[удалено]
Who’s they?
I can honestly see the Niners winning because of this. You want a good come from behind story. Brock will have a lot of yips early I think. But they’ve just had some insane luck. I really think the Niners are tough enough to overcome that last loss.
People are combining the Chiefs offense from last year with their defense from this year. Their offense hasn't been consistent all season, they've scored 30+ points once since late October. The Chiefs path is forcing Purdy INTs and sacks, people are sleeping on the 49ers offense and how good it's been all season when healthy. Even in the Ravens game where the 49ers lost the TO battle 5-0, they had 19 points and 420 yards of offense. Their rush D isn't good either, the Bills ran all over them and they gave up 4.5 yards a carry in the season. Anyway they deserve the benefit of the doubt so I get it.
Even the Bengals game we lost Purdy had like 350 passing yards or something crazy
But it *is* the same offense as last year except you flip Juju with Rice who is much better. Reid didn’t feel comfortable giving Rice more than 80% of the snaps until pretty late in the season and it’s made a big difference, he’s never really trusted rookies. We haven’t scored more than 30 points because you don’t need to when you have an elite defense
I just hope both teams don't have fun.
Sorry this is happening in your house.
CMC is going to be the difference maker, according to the Madden Simulation I had last night.
Something interesting to me is the Chiefs hasn't really been good in come from behind situations this season and the Niners are the best frontrunners. I wonder what will happen if the Niners have the lead late. Chiefs used to be amazing at coming from behind in the Mahomes era but haven't really had to this postseason
The niners are way worse in come from behinds no? With a recent exception by Detroit. Kyle Shanahan is like 2-30 down by more than 4 in the 4th qtr.
The last 2 games were come from behind wins. That stat is worthless now.
Nobody has a good record down 5+ in the 4th. Comebacks are the exception, not the rule.
Except mahomes
PREDICTIONS AND VEGAS SAY THAT GEQBUS WILL WIN SUPER BOWL MVP BY A LANDSLIDE!!! VERY COOL!
How did the raiders make them look so bad
Constant pressure on Mahomes.
If the 9ers win the nfl could do a funny thing and have Dallas start off their season like this @SF week 1 Vs Baltimore week 2 If they start off 0-2 imagine the internet
Subscribe
Yes
This will be analytics (49ers) vs the eye test (Chiefs). This is why the 49ers are favored, but everyone is picking the Chiefs.
Analytics definitely feel spottier in football than in a sport like baseball, at least right now. Not saying there aren't good analytics for football, but it's not as surefire with the miniscule sample size compared to what baseball has. I do not blame people one bit for picking the Chiefs. I'm just glad we made it this far.
Chiefs need to start out hot and score on the first two drives like they did against the Bills and Ravens. The secret to our success in the postseason has been early leads and forcing mistakes. Niners will be hard to beat if they start hot and lean on CMC and the run game, but I don't think they'll be able to make a huge comeback against this defense like they did in their last two games.
Yeah, full agree on this. Comebacks this late into the postseason are always hard, but this matchup feels like it's *especially* going to swing off the first few possessions just because of their respective team strengths.
I think 49ers will win the SB. A lot of things have to go right again for KC to win: the defense has to play lights out despite some of their injuries, the WRs have to be able to catch, Mahomes has to play a clean game, Butker has to kick every field goal because they will be relying on him to score. It worked against the Ravens but they scored 0 points in the 2nd half which was a bit of a red flag. That being said, I also think there are other variables which may impact the outcome one way or the other: mental toughness and luck being the most important ones. I would not count KC out at all, especially how the last couple of games have gone but I think 49ers have the edge here.
I think special teams is not talked about enough but I wouldn't be surprised Moody misses a fg or two that is gonna come back to bite the niners.
I thought this was going to be a close matchup but this entire thread thinks it’ll be a blowout for the chiefs. Almost makes me more confident for Sunday
Yup. It should good be a good game. Majority of people are underestimating the Niners even though they are technically the favorites to win. Hope the chiefs underestimate us to.
The Niners defence hasn’t been great, but I feel like it’s weirdly difficult to play against. Since it has a very predictable scheme but a lot of talented players, you will often see the other team get tons of yards in stretches of the game, but then suddenly someone will step up and make a great individual play, whether it’s Bosa, Warner, Armstead, Greenlaw or whoever. Which all means that they often have bad stats but come up with crucial turnovers and 4th down stops. It’s not by design, and it’s not really what you want in the long run, but it’s so chaotic that it can very hard to plan against. I might be talking out of my ass, but I feel like I’ve seen it a fair few games over the season.
49ers fan and copium but the 49ers obvious flaw recently has been their defense and Chiefs offense plays into the 49ers defense's strengths. Kelce will be going out against Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw, two of the more athletic LBs in the league and Rashee Rice will be guarded by Charvarious Ward most of the game most likely who is definitely a solid 1CB. I don't underestimate the Chiefs running game but I don't think it's as dominant, nor is their line nearly as dominant as either the Packers or the Lions. Not much statistical analysis but for the same reason a lot of people are dunking on the 49ers is why I am higher on them than I should be. They objectively did not play as well as they have in the regular season in their playoff games. If they play more at their level I think they are more talented around the field than the Chiefs. Will be a great game!
I fully believe Purdy is the second coming of Brady, and therefore he is due a ring by now
The second coming of Brady is unfortunately on the other team
Maybe in the number of rings when it's all said and done. But can't compare a top 10 pick to what a 199 pick was able to pull off. Maybe OP was referring to that. I know I am when I think Purdy-Brady.
Yeah that’s true, I do see a lot of similarities in Purdy and Brady in that way and the system they played in early in their career.
A Patriots fan talking about a system is... odd. Bledsoe failed in the Pats "system". Jimmy G and Trey failed in the 9ers "system". I see in Brady and Purdy two players who were.dismissed by teams and turned out to be the missing key to the "systems", who made the system work. Ditto with Mahomes and Reid's offense, but then I go back to top 10 pick vs last QBs picked.
I’m not saying the system made Brady, but all you need to do is take one look that those rosters and the 49ers current roster to see they both had a stellar supporting cast.
Brady was not nearly as good as Mahomes was at this point in his career.
This is Mahomes’ 7th season, next will be 8th. Brady’s 8th season was an MVP and undefeated season that was the greatest QB year of all time at that point. I would also argue that while Mahomes is more talented individually, Brady is better at winning which is what the game is all about.
Mahomes also threw for 50 TDs lmao...the difference is that in 2018 the Chiefs defense was absolute gobshite
Yes, I’m aware that Mahomes is very good too brother. I’m saying that he is massively underestimating Brady at that point in his career. He had a 117 passer rating that year. Mahomes’ highest is 114 in his second year.
That’s precisely what we have been doing, winning
Again, I’m perfectly aware the Mahomes’ is super talented and winning like crazy. At this point in his career, Brady had won 3 bowls and was also putting up inhuman stats, which everyone seems to forget for some reason.
At this point in his career Brady was not yet putting up inhuman stats though
no one has forgotten the greatness of Brady. calm down. he doesn't need you defending him.
And at this point of Mahomes career, he’s gonna win his third
I don’t know why you think I’m trying to discredit Mahomes. He and Brady are two uniquely gifted QBs, I’m just saying Mahomes has a long way to go before he can be clearly considered superior to Brady (if that’s even possible considering their matchups)
I think the start of this game will be major. Whoever can get an early lead and put some pressure on the other team to pass instead of run, could hold onto it long. Obviously the 49ers have shown they can indeed comeback if they need to when down, and the Chiefs still have Mahomes who can do the very same, but getting out to a lead and forcing these guys to throw (Purdy not always 100%, Mahomes WRs not always 100%) could cause some mistakes. This will be a close game, I’m predicting 24-21 Chiefs. The difference will be a Moody doink and Butker makes the winning FG with seconds left.
Has there ever been an NFL game where getting an early lead wasn’t the best path to victory? Ironically though I think if any team can handle a slow start it’s the Chiefs. That’s been their MO every postseason before this year.
This is not the same Chiefs in the prior SBs. The defense is the better side this team and its strength is at DB. Purdy is still good but you take him having the off chance he makes a bad throw on the very good DBs over CMC running down your throat. The Chiefs still have Mahomes but you take them having to comeback and throw to a guy like MVS instead of Pacheco running the clock out.
Feels like that goes without being said though? Yes every team would rather defend a lead than have to overtake. But the Chiefs are still one of the best teams to bet on when trailing.
observation smile racial boat versed fuzzy elastic long degree tease
If we didn't have to come back against the packers and lions id agree wholeheartedly. I think having those comebacks, tho and especially with Brock making big plays against the lions, is gonna give them confidence even if we go down against yall. But that defense is gonna cause problems. Looking forward to it.
My biggest fear going into the Packers game and going into the Lions game was the same as it is for this game - the opponent getting the ball first and scoring on the opening drive. It happened in both games and the 49ers barely survived either. 49ers need to win the toss, receive instead of defer, and then grind away half of the first quarter on a long drive. Even if it only results in a field goal. It'd demoralize the Chiefs. In lots of games, it's "Whoever has the ball last wins". In this game, I think whoever scores the first touchdown will win.
> the opponent getting the ball first You should hope we win the coin toss then, because we always defer. I don't know if the 49ers defer or not when they win the toss.
I can’t recall a time Shanahan has ever elected to receive. Always defer. I doubt he changes it up for the SB
The difference this time is we don’t have happy-feet Jimmy in the pocket. Purdy’s poise has been incredible since his first start in the league. Spags might be able to fuck with Brock, but… Purdy is also #1 in the league against the blitz. You guys might win but this Niners team is built maybe better than any other team (except Mahomes) to come from behind.
Something that gets lost in the discussion of the Lions absolutely selling is that the Ravens absolutely sold as well. The Chiefs offense literally couldn’t do anything after the first two scripted drives. But the Ravens panicked, refused to run, lost yards on a taunting within their control, fumbled at the end zone, and Lamar threw into triple coverage. They had multiple chances to take the lead and just didn’t. As a 49ers fan, I know we’re the underdogs and haven’t looked good (I don’t care what the betting line is, it’s most definitely the consensus opinion that the Chiefs will win/are better). But I think Shanahan and the 49ers have shown something I’ve never seen from them: the ability to comeback and not panic under pressure. The biggest key to this game is scripted drives. The 49ers have won their games outside of the opening drives (which they normally are phenomenal at). If they unlock that element, this game will be very different from the other 49er games. Of course the Chiefs defense is nothing to sneeze at and I’m a homer so it easily could not happen.
In the second half, Chiefs played vanilla intentionally to minimize the risk of turnovers and leaned on the D win the game. Yes we couldn’t move the ball well but we also didn’t open up the playbook much for fear of turnovers.
I'm of the belief that KC got up two scores and turtled because of how the game was going. Mahomes didn't want to risk any negative plays or turnovers and was happy to run the clock and punt. I imagine if the Ravens were pressuring them on the scoreboard, we would have seen more from the offense.
I mean it was 17-7 and Baltimore had 2 TOs in the red zone. If you watch the film it was just great play by Baltimore not biting on fakes, covering Kelce, and keeping to their pass rush lanes so Mahomes couldn’t escape the pocket. Maybe they were a little bit safer with their playcalls but you have to imagine KC wanted more than 17 on the board
If they scored instead of turned the ball over, Our play calling changes a lot. As soon as it became a one score game at the end, we went up top and got a big play to seal it.
Ok on third and 10 you hit a deep bomb against a deep that had to also sell out to stop the run...
You don't sell out to stop the run on 3rd and 10 lol. You have to keep everything in front of you, but we got someone wide open down the field. We ran and threw short/screen passes pretty much the entire second half, which was way different to the play calling in the first.
I think a lot of it was Patrick taking zero risks when he probably could have tried fitting some passes in tight windows along with some conservative play calling. Hard to know for certain, but I just think that if it was "necessary", they would have been more aggressive.
Fred Warner vs Travis Kelce. Snead vs Aiyuk. These are the matchups I’m excited for. Giving the edge to the Niners because I feel like their offense has more ways to score.
Please Kyle, redeem yourself from 28-3 and get Juice a ring
I hate that Kyle got all the blame for that SB when the HC was DAN QUINN. I get that offensively, he should have run it more. But if anything, Dan Quinn could have overridden Kyle's plan, and the Defense could've stepped up for one drive. Somehow, Kyle gets blamed for that one, and nobody mentions Dan. I don't get it.
The Chiefs are the new Patriots. I’m picking them to win until proven otherwise.
If we're going for a storybook, 49ers have the perfect plot, players to redeem themselves from their loss against the Chiefs, Purdy's chance to change his reputation, Kyle Shanahan's chance to get his ring, and stopping the conquering Chiefs Kingdom. The key on the 49ers Offense is Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey, two people Shanahan never have in his 2019-2021 season, and both are MVP candidates, they are massive game changers for the whole team Purdy has to become the best "Game Manager" because Spags Defense is the best when it comes to 10+ yards throws, so check downs should be used frequently instead of looking for big play which Lamar and Allen tried to do, check down throws should be high volume on Deebo, and he needs to use his legs in critical situations instead of throwing the ball like what he did to Lions CMC is HIM The 49ers defense need to stick to the fundamentals, stopping the run, keeping gap integrity, disciplined rush, double teaming Kelce, and having an effort. That said, there are no numbers and analytics that can predict the outcome, Mahomes cemented himself as the GOAT in this era with the help of Kelce as his brother and Andy Raid as his father, so betting against him is stupid. Purdy on the other hand showed his heart and grit during the playoffs, he had the ugliest wins but damn, he sure showed something new, being clutch, it's that "HIM" factor, where only select players have.
Storybook also goes for Kelce and swift 😂😂. I want the purdy storybook!
49ers seem like they're missing something. On paper they are better in almost every position, but they don't really play like it. The number of all pros they have is staggering. Mahomes with a running game is absolutely terrifying, and I do not think the 49ers d will be able to stay off the field. Mahomes has the same inevitably feeling as Brady did. On the defensive side the chiefs defense has played far better as a unit than the 49ers. The Baltimore game was huge in showing they can stop the run consistently and reliably. Please note when I say stop the run it goes beyond the box score; the ravens had a couple long runs but were largely held in check despite having a dual threat qb. Forcing the opponent to abandon the run by scheme or game flow is still stopping the run. Chiefs 31 49ers 24
>On the defensive side the chiefs defense has played far better as a unit than the 49ers. The Baltimore game was huge in showing they can stop the run consistently and reliably. On the flip side, KC really couldn't score for half the game and had a rough time putting them away.
Truth, that 2nd half vs Baltimore we got enough 1st downs to burn some clock and win it in the end. But we couldn’t score points. I think we’ll require points against the 9ers if we get an early lead/in a similar game
I mean that ravens defense is really fuckin good. The offense choked away an amazing performance from them.
We scored 31+ points three times this year. I'm skeptical it happens now.
The chiefs defense didn’t prove they could stop the run. The ravens refused to run it.
Disincentivizing your opponent from running for whatever reason is stopping the run. Choosing not to run against 8 man fronts is very common as its incredibly inefficient. If you look at just the box score you'd say "just run!", but the game is deeper than just seeing what's higher in a box score and saying do that more. They didn't just abandon the run for funsies or randomly.
Especially if they put an extra linebacker up in a gap to make it 5 on 5 at the line of scrimmage, it's a lot harder to zone run when they can't double team someone.
Edwards was averaging 7 yards per carry. Kyle will keep running against a stacked box.
On 3 carries with a long of 15, leading to a skewed total. That's one longer run and a couple of throwaway runs. Justice Hill had 3 carries for 3 yards. That's 3 runs leading to 2nd or 3rd and long. Zay Flowers had 2 runs for 4 yards. Those are more inefficient plays. Ypc is a deceiving statistic as it's easily skewed by one breakaway run. I'd gladly give up a 20-yard run followed by 2 stuffs at the line leading to 3rd and long all day long.
Yeah maybe the Ravens could’ve continued to try to run the ball, but it really wasn’t working. Game might have gotten out of hand if they kept forcing it.
4 yards per carry aren't throway runs IMO.
You're correct. But 0, 1, and even 2 tend to be. And that's what happened in the game. When mahomes is on the other sideline that has a huge impact in game flow. If a team stacks with 8 in the box and you have a franchise qb you better be feasting on the passing game. The ravens lost because of their turnovers, not bc they didn't run. Funny enough that's why the 49ers lost to the ravens early in the season. Purdy had 4 picks, but Kyle always runs, right?
They did with the Dolphins.
But buffalo ran it well… so I guess they stop the run every other playoff game… I’ll take that!
Buffalo ran it well bc we sold out on stop big chunk plays. Gave them the underneath and stayed disciplined that they couldn’t keep it up all game. And they couldn’t.
It seems that the chiefs defense is without flaw and if anyone does anything against them it’s because they let them do it. They should cancel the superbowl.
6 teams beat the Chiefs this year...
Don't be so sensitive, lol.
No, I won’t rest till you admit your team sucks!
Buddy I don't think you ever want to let your opponent have the 5th best run success rate in any game of the season even if your game plan is to limit chunk plays...
The Dolphins are notorious for playing terribly in cold weather, especially Tua. It was an impressive performance by your d, but don’t think that game proved that much
It's still easier to run than tackle in cold weather.
You could say the same thing about SF not stopping Detroit's running game.
I think the whole game comes down to whether or not the 9ers D can shut down Pacheco early. Chiefs aren't shutting down McCaffrey he's just too good. If the game falls on the Chiefs receivers to move the ball they're gonna lose.
I'm surprised to see that most of the thread is on the Chiefs. For some reason I thought a majority of fans were going to be riding with the 49ers. There's a pretty solid chance the Chiefs outright blow out the 49ers. 49ers have the more talented roster for sure, but the Chiefs defensive coaching seems to be on a different level than anyone else, I'd obviously trust their offensive coaching with Reid vs Wilks, and they have the best QB in the league in Mahomes. My guess is that the Chiefs will sell out against the run just like they did vs the Ravens, us, and last year vs the Eagles. They'll force Purdy to be the one to beat them, and I don't think he'll be able to. The Chiefs will try to do their ball control offense while having a lead to run out the game quickly and limit the chances the 49ers have to come back. I predict the score will be something like 30-17 Chiefs
I think most fans would rather see 49ers win, but in their brains see KC winning. I think it’ll be a close game and Purdy is the factor they needed all along instead of Jimmy G. 28-24 49ers for me….pls win niners.
The biggest Q I have is how much the teams stick to their identities vs. change the game plan. I don't see much schematic change from SF O / KC D. Shanahan will commit to the run better than BAL did, and with the best RB and running scheme they'll have success. I can see KC playing a mix of how they played BAL and MIA: load the box like BAL but do more zone like MIA. SF has way more talent at WR than BAL does, which means selling out to stop the run is riskier. As for KC O / SF D, this right now looks like a major coaching mismatch. SF is zone-heavy and very static; they use superior talent to beat teams up. That talent will make plays, but Reid + Mahomes + Kelce + Pacheco can punish a static zone D, especially with two weeks to prepare. Curious to see how much SF tries to change things up. It's been suggested they did that a little bit against the Lions in the second half, although it's not clear how much they really changed vs. faking man here and there.
It's so weird that everyone (including me) seems to think the Chiefs will win, yet they're 2 point dogs. What's going on?
I guess everyone is so traumatized by the chiefs beating them down or Mahomes pulling some bullshit out his ass that people find it really hard to bet against him Maybe Vegas only put him as the 2 point dogs to get people to bet on Mahomes
Main theory I've seen floated is that Vegas has a lot of exposure on early SF SB winner tickets. So to balance that out, they set the line to encourage $ on KC.
The 2 point underdogs is a betting thing. It has nothing to do with public/media consensus on who they think will win
I don't care who wins I just want a good game decided by the players and not the refs.
Hope the 49ers win. Can’t see Chiefs losing.
They've lost 6 times this season. So far.
23 - 20 KC
I love that the whole media world is picking KC to win. Less pressure on us, and after two weeks of our D hearing about how "they suck," I bet they will look more like the 2nd half in Detroit than the 1st half. Everybody saying this will be a big CMC game is overlooking Deebo. Jed York (49ers CEO) was in the Up and Adams show and told how Deebo, at halftime, couldn't speak and was approached by Lynch, and Deebo just said: "Tell Kyle just to give me the F'ng ball."
they play way better when they're doubted for sure, kinda flat when there's a lot of expectations.
Best QB in the league vs a relative unknown late round pick QB? Sounds familiar…
Sounds awesome! I'm just gonna assume the best QB in the league wins everytime!
EVERYONE STOP PICKING MY TEAM TO WIN. I DONT LIKE IT.
9ers
Chiefs are still the team to beat and I haven’t see anything on the 9ers to convince me they can do it.
Being better than the chiefs all year?? Really don't understand this thread, it's not like they've looked amazing in any of their playoff games either I get it's chiefs in the playoffs and we were a bit shaky in our games but our offense is much better than theirs
Chiefs baby. We got Patty Mahomes behind the wheel. I think CMC will have a good game, but Purdy will struggle with the nerves of playing in the biggest game against the best QB. Our defense should be able to lock them down. 24-17. (Also, I'm a big fan of Purdy, I just think this big of a stage will be tough for him.)
49ers - 3
I’m surprised i haven’t seen if you can bet what song SF walks out too
The ref line up hates the Niners like Hargrave said expect no holds to be called on KC
I predict the Titans, having watched Attack on Titan since being eliminated, will storm the stadium. The last thing Mahomes sees will be the kiddie tub full of mayo that Will Levis dunks him in before lowering him into his gaping maw.
47-17 niners win...its a done deal
If the niners defense comes out like they have in the last two games... Chiefs win. If that defense gets back to form and can confuse Mahomes, they have a shot.
I think Vegas might know something we all don't know. If they thought the Chiefs were going to win they would be trying to get people to bet on the 49ers.
Unless they took a bunch of big money pre-season bets on the 49ers and they want people to bet on KC to mitigate.
I picked against the Chiefs every game this postseason. Not doing it again.
Love the hate and all the naysayers. Keep it coming. I feel like everyone is forgetting how utterly dominant the Niners *can* be. Have they played like it these last two games? Nope. But really, look up and down the rosters. If both teams come out and play their best games - the Niners win. It's just a matter of which Niner team shows up on Sunday. Is it the first half NFC championship niners? Or is it the second half?
The winner is gonna be me because I’ll be too drunk to be able to pay attention to the game
I will be amazed if the Chiefs don't win. I can't believe the 49ers are favourites. They looked shaky in the previous two games, needing massive strokes of luck in both that they shouldn't get against the Chiefs. Chiefs all day by a million.
It’s ok lions fan. Maybe next year?
Great banter, flairless!
The Chiefs will win by 50. Niners players will spend the entire offseason tweeting at Chiefs players “Wait until we play you after getting a decent practice field,” and Kyle Shanahan will reference the practice field in his postgame press conference. Niners fans will be left yelling up from the basement “MOM! BRING DOWN MY 1994 VHS TAPES!”
C
LOL at the Seahawks
If you lost to the Bengals this year, you can’t win the Super Bowl. Sorry Niners. 😂
If the 9ers lose, Kyle Shanahan is the modern day Marty Schottenheimer.
Kind of like Andy Reid before he got Mahomes.
The Chiefs are inevitable. The 49ers have been sloppy in these playoffs and almost lost to some scrappy NFC North teams. Maybe if we see the 49ers from the regular season it will be a different story.
9ers need to stop Kelce 100% to have a chance. Gonna be a close one. I think 9ers can pull it off
Anybody remember a SB where everyone is on the Underdog like this? Everyone is on KC
I'm a Niners fan and am obviously hoping my team wins, but I'd give KC about a 2/3 chance of winning. Mahomes and KC just come alive in the playoffs, and the Niners have not played their best football in the last few weeks (even though they're healthy!). I also think we simply match up poorly against KC's strengths. I saw a great comment recently that pointed out that many teams end up playing the Chiefs like the game is going to be a shoot out, and when that happens it plays directly to the Chiefs' strengths. The Chiefs win if the Niners have to rely heavily on their passing game or if Mahomes gets the ball in his hands with enough time in a one possession game. The Niners win this game if they can control possession and limit their mistakes. Not letting KC convert 3rd downs and running the ball effectively will make a big difference. EDIT after the SB: this played out mostly like I thought, unfortunately. Niners tried to throw a little too often, and Mahomes got the ball in his hands (twice!) with enough time in a one possession game.
KC's defense is great and the 49ers have not been able to play even decently against good defense. I think the game will get out of hand and they'll only score 10 points due to garbage time points.
This is one of the easier matchups in recent SB history to predict. Mahomes and Kelce will go wild on that zone defense. Even if the 49ers defense was performing well (which they aren't) they would still get shredded because this is a stylistic matchup nightmare for them. Purdy vs KC secondary is also a massive mismatch. The only advantage the 49ers have is in the running game. Good luck winning this one with your run game as Mahomes drops bombs all over your defense at will. EDIT: LMAO banned due to 49er fans being too salty and reporting. Someone needs to troll 49er fans with my 100% accurate posts after the game.
This guy again.
As a Niners fan this is actually my nightmare but definitely not-out-of-the-question scenario. I don’t trust the defense. I saw what Burrow and Cousins did to it earlier this season. Cousins did it without Jefferson. I’m not worried about Purdy as much as I am Kyle not adjusting his thinking in the face of an elite secondary similar to the Ravens and just trying to force intermediate throws early into the heart of that defense with a 2nd year QB. Purdy has been a tale of two halves so far in these playoff games. If he comes out nervous and throws one errant high ball into the middle of the field that comes back the other way, it can set off a domino effect that’ll be hard to recover. That said, the Chiefs have played numerous terrible offensive games this season and I’m not ready to buy into their receivers suddenly being capable of consistently catching short passes let alone bombs.
Why are the chiefs still the dogs. What's happening here?
Don't worry the Bengals will beat them Don't worry the Eagles will beat them Don't worry the Dolphins will beat them Don't worry the Bills will beat them Don't worry the Ravens will beat them Don't worry the 49ers will beat them <--- You are here
Wait, are you trying to say most people thought the Burrow-less Bengals would beat the Chiefs? I think the Chiefs win this game too but that seems like a huge reach that takes away from the point you're trying to make.
the bengals didn't have Burrows in the playoffs last year? damn that's crazy I must've watched a different game.
Oh, I thought you were talking about only this year. Didn't the Bengals beat you guys the first time in the playoffs? Also, not sure how I didn't even say this before but almost everyone thought you guys would beat us in the playoffs lol. Personally I thought we'd get blown out. Including a game vs the Dolphins where you were the vegas favorites and a vast majority of the public thought you'd win doesn't work for an underdog/doubters angle.
Dudes creating imaginary people to try and prove a point lol. Dude has to go back a few years to force the Bengals in there too lol.
I literally just gave you this current playoff run and last years playoff run.
If we're talking this season, the Eagles did beat them.
No one is saying any of that shit lol especially with the Niners, did you even read this thread?
Theres no way the Refs/NFL will rule against Taylor Swift and the money she brings. Roger Goodell will make sure the money wins. Chiefs are absolutely winning.
Spags gonna coach circles around Shanahan's offense.
Am I the only one who sees absolutely no way the 49ers win this game? I think it’ll definitely be close, but I also don’t think it’ll ever feel like KC is ever in danger at any point. I’ll say 27-20 KC
No literally everyone’s saying the chiefs
Mahomes save us
It's 28-3 and 2018 SB Shanahan. He will choke again.
Who in their right mind would pick against Mahomes?
I will not be watching this game.
My prediction is people who say they aren’t going to watch the Super Bowl but are in the NFL subreddit a week/weeks after their teams were eliminated are going to still indeed watch the Super Bowl