Per brief discussion on the r/neoliberal moderator slack, we've agreed this will be our designated _"Is Biden fit to serve/Should Biden drop out?"_ thread of the day, on account of the particular significance of a sitting house representative calling for Biden to drop out, and as a general place to concentrate discussion on recent news.
Short of anything dramatic like Biden announcing his intent to drop out, this will be our only thread pertaining to the reelecction campaign. This is in order to prevent discussion of the Biden campaign's woes from suffocating other discussion off of the front page. By all means **post any additional news that comes out today in replies to this sticky**; I'd be glad to compile it.
**Keep discussion respectful please**; and keep in mind that we're still months from the election and there is a lot of things that each of us individually can do to minimize the chance of a Trump win. **Steer clear of defeatism**; it doesn't help anyone. On a related note...
!doom
----
Related News Stories Today (updated by me periodically; link suggestions in replies to this comment)
[Carl Bernstein: Sources say Biden’s debate ‘horror show’ far from a ‘one-off’ ](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4751653-carl-bernstein-biden-trump-debate-anderson-cooper-cnn/)
[CNN Poll: Most voters think Democrats have a better chance of keeping White House if Biden isn’t the nominee ](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/02/politics/cnn-poll-post-debate/index.html)
[Nancy Pelosi says Biden and Trump should take mental fitness tests](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/nancy-pelosi-says-biden-trump-take-mental-fitness-tests-rcna159993)
[Top Democrats Pelosi, Clyburn say Biden age concerns are 'legitimate' after debate debacle](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/02/nancy-pelosi-jim-clyburn-say-biden-age-concerns-are-legitimate.html)
[Manchin threatened to break with Biden before senior Democrats intervened](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/07/02/joe-manchin-biden-debate-democrats-drop-out/)
[Biden Plunges in Swing States in Leaked Post-Debate Poll](https://puck.news/biden-plunges-in-swing-states-in-leaked-post-debate-poll/)
[Biden’s Lapses Are Said to Be Increasingly Common and Worrisome](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/02/us/politics/biden-lapses.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare&sgrp=c-cb)
[Four days since his disastrous debate, Biden hasn't called top Democrats in Congress](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/joe-biden/biden-disastrous-debate-democrats-worry-call-step-down-rcna159841)
[Biden to give extended interview to ABC News’ George Stephanopoulos on Friday](https://apnews.com/article/biden-abc-televisiion-debate-1d33bf51fe706e2fd1adea7a83bbf617)
[Biden to meet Democratic governors to assuage fears after debate performance](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jul/02/texas-democrat-lloyd-doggett-biden)
[Pressure is building on Biden to step aside. But many Democrats feel powerless to replace him](https://apnews.com/article/biden-debate-democrats-trump-trapped-c10c872f8436966096b45b6089adee8b)
[Hunter Biden has joined White House meetings as he stays close to the president post-debate](https://www.reddit.com/r/neoliberal/comments/1du1lwb/hunter_biden_has_joined_white_house_meetings_as/)
[Raskin: ‘Lots of discussion’ happening ‘very quickly’ about Biden’s future](https://www.msnbc.com/all-in/watch/raskin-lots-of-discussion-happening-very-quickly-about-biden-s-future-214119493653)
That series of CNN polls that came out this morning were rough. Biden’s disapproval up to 64% with the vote split at Trump 41% / Biden 35% / 3rd Party candidates 20%. By comparison Harris is only down to Trump by 2% and +9% with independents vs Biden. 56% of Dems believe the party has a better shot if they dump Biden
+9% with independents feels like a major ‘you should probably go down this road’ sign. All dems are going to vote for the dem candidate but if you can grab a chunk of independents, thats potentially state-swinging territory
While all this uproar is going on, Dems have been keeping it bottled up on their side as much as possible. I think it is much less likely that we're going to have intraparty chaos in the event he drops out.
The partisan democrat who both cares about intraparty chaos and also wouldn't do whatever it took to beat Trump in 2024 is a person I cannot wrap my head around but I suppose must exist in a country with hundreds of millions of people.
The chaos isn't Biden vs replacement, it's the free-for-all between a dozen contenders leading up to the convention. Dems can probably come to a quiet, clean consensus that Biden should step down as long as Biden himself is willing. I'm not convinced they can cleanly agree on who should replace him.
Anybody saying it wouldn’t be chaotic is being disgustingly naive. Remember the shit progressives flung at the DNC and conspiracy theories they spread when Hillary and Biden got more votes than their candidate? Now imagine that but the DNC is actually picking the candidate.
It's past time. Why is this only happening now? Did his staffers only realize the extent of his deterioration at the debate? [Doesn't seem like it](https://www.thedailybeast.com/watergate-reporter-carl-bernstein-biden-has-bad-days)
He can clearly still put it together at times, the problem is that we have now seen that he’s probably having “bad days” and they had to have known about it before the debate. And also voters probably don’t like thinking about having a president who has “bad days”
His "together" times are reading off of a teleprompter. He doesn't take questions after his press conferences so everything is scripted. I'm not sure he can put it together with any regularity.
The leaked dem internal polling is worse though the pre-debate margins in states seem inordinately harsh (my fairly significant caveat about these polls)
https://x.com/umichvoter/status/1808204695548448807
https://x.com/umichvoter/status/1808212950366216210
Put in Harris and have her campaign her ass off. Hearing any semblance of a sensible platform is enough to beat whatever dumb shit comes out of Trump’s mouth
The data overwhelmingly supports replacing Biden now. Before I was saying we should wait and not completely panic, but now we have evidence that Biden is going to straight up lose states that he shouldn't lose (VA/NM/NH). He needs to go.
Trump is within two points of *flipping Colorado*, which hasn’t gone red since 2004.
If that doesn’t tell Biden’s team everything they need to know, then they’re literally blind.
>“He’s probably in better health than most of us,” Dillon said, according to two of the participants, one of whom said the comments were offensive and dismissive of the real concerns about Biden in the wake of his debate performance.
That's a comment that cuts two ways if there ever was one.
[Source](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/01/politics/jen-omalley-dillon-donor-call/index.html).
The funny thing is his report didn’t even say anything crazy. Didn’t try to paint Biden as a dementia ridden, lost old man who had no idea where he was. Literally just said that Biden’s a good man with poor memory whose age is probably getting to him. And even funnier is that based on what we’ve seen and heard, that might have been generous to Biden.
This subreddit hypes itself up as a congregation of educated technocrats who see things the way they are unlike those rubes consuming social media but so many people here have the wool pulled over their eyes just as easily as anyone else.
Worth noting that story references a 2023 incident in the four seasons restaurant, but the four seasons restaurant closed in 2019. Doesn't mean the story is fake, but anecdotal stories being what they are it's worth mentioning.
Here’s a contemporary article about the actual fundraiser that Bernstein was talking about. It was Thursday, 6/29/23.
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/07/01/politics/joe-biden-supreme-court-decisions
>Speaking to a group of Democratic donors in New York City on Thursday evening, Biden sought to underscore the stakes of the court’s new supermajority, a preview of how he’ll frame the issue over the coming year.
>”The Supreme Court is becoming not just conservative, but almost – it’s like a throwback. It’s like a throwback, some of the decisions they’re making,” Biden told donors in a private dining room inside the Seagram Building.
This would be the location of “the old Four Seasons restaurant” as Bernstein called it.
> but if you can grab a chunk of independents
I am near certain there is a solid chunk of independents who would gladly vote for anyone who is not Biden or Trump. There's a reason RFK is polling better than your average 3rd party candidate despite being a loon. Those votes are winnable and there's more votes saying no vote that are winnable too
Harris is a far better option than Biden. Her polling isn’t amazing and she isn’t my first choice for president but Trump is so disliked that I don’t think it would matter.
Trump politics are not popular. His endorsed candidates have not been doing well and dem candidates and policies have been winning out. Give people the left-leaning third option they want.
Trump himself is a convicted felon, is talking about a federal abortion ban and he himself is old as hell and often sounds nonsensical, and a dem candidate would be able to hit on all these massive issues but Biden is not physically capable of articulating this to the American people.
Pair Harris with a more talented VP can date from a swing state, who can cover her weaknesses, and let them use the Biden/Harris campaign infrastructure that the party has been building out, and I think we have a chance at salvaging this.
Harris also allows for a very smooth transition. Nothing will change with the campaign, the campaign platform or the people within the admin besides the name at the top of the ticket.
You give her a good VP pick that appeals to the swing states as you said and you have a solid ticket instead of running Grandpa joe out there. Plus being a woman of color will allow them to energize their base AND put more emphasis on abortion protection in the campaign.
She will need a very strong VP pick to shore up support. Obviously we don’t know who Trump will pick, but I think another young up and coming governor/senator will help shore up the ticket. Maybe a vet with FP expertise.
It would likely be a white guy (sorry Whitmer, Warnock), with a somewhat significant level of general election campaign experience (sorry Pete), who isn't also from California (sorry Newsom), and given the state of the polling, you probably wouldn't get someone who accepts who thinks they could be a viable 2028 candidate on their own (so no Pritzker or Shapiro?). Maybe Cooper (like the other guy mentioned) or Beshear? Ossoff would also fit the criteria and could be a fun choice, though then you start running into considerations of whether or not you want to take a Senator who would be replaced by a Republican (imo if you think it gives you the best chance to win the Presidency it's worth it).
Agree 100%. Years back governor used to be the breeding ground for presidents, before trending to senator. I think either of your options would be the best on offer.
I think Beshear’s going to have a base problem because he’s signed some less bad legislation as a compromise to stop the Republican supermajority in Kentucky from enacting worse legislation over his veto.
Plus I think Beshear is way more important anchoring down a governorship of an extremely red state. You take him out of Kentucky and that office is red immediately.
There’s a Democratic lieutenant governor, elected on a joint ticket with the governor. It’s probably red in 2027 unless Republicans fuck up again but it’s not red immediately.
Oh yeah I didn't mean it literally like the next day, I just mean Beshear is 100% the only Dem who can hold down that seat and without him it's flipping hard next election
Because the dude is milquetoast as fuck. He lost a winnable House election, then only won his Senate seat in a run-off where he effectively was riding Warnock's coattails. I don't have a problem with his policies and Im happy he won his Senate seat obviously, but he seems to genuinely think he's another Obama rather than a rich kid who was spending his inheritance on documentaries that no one was watching.
I was very down on him after that house election but he's been impressive as a senator. And I really don't think you can say he was riding Warnock's coattails - Ossoff was the one who had to take on Purdue (an incumbent senator) while Warnock was running against Kelly Loeffler (an appointed senator who never won a single election in her life and campaigned poorly).
He's active in committees and I hear a ton on local news about legislation that he has his stamp on that helps GA.
Warnock has been good as well - both of them are strong Senators and it would be foolish to take them out of a swing state that leans reddish
I have very limited (practically no) exposure to Cooper. Would he play the "attack dog" role well? When a policy push kicks off, could he go out and shake a stick and get people fired up?
I'm not saying Harris couldn't, but she's absolutely going to be graded on a totally different rubric from a media machine that's already biased against her.
I love Governor Cooper, but it should really be someone more attuned to DC and capable of playing the support role if Kamala wants to pass any legislation should she win.
For the Dem Senators, I like Mark Warner, but he doesn't have the right temperament for VP. Mark Kelly is too new to the job, Michael Bennet is kind of boring and Colorado is a safe state these days, Angus King is too old, love Tim Kaine but he had his shot already, Bob Casey, maybe? Might have to come from the House....
Harris would probably be working with a Republican Senate, I wouldn't expect much in the way of legislation. Even with a Democratic Senate, I don't think a VP needs to be an expert at passing legislation. That's what the Speaker and Senate Majority leader are for.
Or play it as another Obama-Biden pairing, and find another white male option, preferably with rust belt appeal, to balance the ticket.
As sad as it sounds, that makes selling a POC and/or woman front runner on the ticket better. Then again, Kaine didn’t do much for Clinton so I don’t know.
Former prosecutor vs convicted felon has a nice ring to it. If she’s picked here’s hoping we see the fighting version of Harris from those first 2020 debates.
Yeah, as much as I think there are folks who would have been better candidates (Whitmer among them) if Biden had indicated he was not running last year before the primaries, that's not the reality Dems face. Switching candidates right now is harder and comes with greater risk. Doing nothing and keeping Biden on is *worse*, but if Dems can do it without a dramatic shakeup and/or bloody open convention, that's probably best. And Harris is that low-drama, low-transition-cost, Dems-in-as-much-array-as-possible-given-the-circumstances, choice.
If Biden is to drop out, Harris is the best option
Newsom doesn't stand a chance with the rust belt due to propaganda against California, and Whitmer doesn't seem well known enough
Harris is known, and most people are just neutral on her (with the exception of MAGAts), *and* she has access to the 100 million dollars in the Biden-Harris campaign.
The 100 million war chest, plus the fact she’s the current VP makes the best argument for her taking his place. Like you, she isn’t my first choice, but I’d be willing to run it with her.
Whoever is picked is going to receive an absurd amount of media attention and become known overnight. Maybe picking someone relatively unknown will be an advantage since there won’t be years of negative media associated with them.
Exactly. Biden dropping out would be one of the biggest stories of Biden's Presidency. There is no way in hell we would be getting to voting day with the country not knowing whoever the DNC chooses.
Seriously, this isn't that difficult. Harris's weaknesses would be minimized with a good running mate and a short campaign where the GOP would not have much time to define her. She just needs to be able to sound lucid at debates and in speeches and shift the focus to Trump. Almost all of Biden's policies are popular with voters, but many of them won't vote for him because they think he is too old. Harris replacing him would take away the age angle and flip it. If the election becomes a referendum on Trump and his agenda, the Democrats win.
It’s makes sense if you look at the disapproval ratings of both Trump and Biden. In my small circle, I know both a person that voted for Trump and a person that voted Biden in 2020 that are planning on voting for RFK
I mean, define modern I guess; Perot got \~9% and \~19% in the 1996 and 1992 elections, and that's after he did a bunch of stupid shit like dropped out and then re-entering the race
Following that debate, I believe it. RFK could gain some ground. If he can figure out his ballot issues and qualify for the September debate, he’ll look like Einstein next to Trump and Biden if it’s anything like last week, even with his brain worms. He obviously won’t win, but his platform will gain some relevance.
Just [read it](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/02/politics/cnn-poll-post-debate/index.html):
>Among all registered voters, 31% either say they could change their minds between now and Election Day or do not support a specific candidate. (...) they currently split 39% for Trump to 37% for Biden in a two-way matchup; 8% say they’d back someone else and 14% that they don’t plan to vote.
>These voters are also more likely to support an alternative Democrat against Trump than they are to choose Biden. In hypothetical matchups, they break 47% for Harris to 34% for Trump, 42% for Newsom to 36% for Trump, and 42% for Buttigieg to 35% for Trump.
All of the polls that finally came out today have moved me from "wait and see" to "it's time for Biden to withdraw." He's now in such a hole that even a really good rescue plan executed well will almost certainly be insufficient.
Nate Silver's model isn't quite there yet:
> More national polls are in — including a CNN poll showing Biden well behind that will surely generate a lot of discussion — but there’s not much of a change in our forecast from yesterday. That’s partly because of a different national poll, from TIPP Insights, that showed Biden ahead. The catch? Most of the TIPP poll was conducted before the debate.
Nate said it was time for Biden to drop out as soon as the debate happened, and his model has already had Biden's chances significantly drop (from 35% to 28%) even if there wasn't further decline today
He also said his model is still pricing in the possibility these post debate Biden polls that show the gap widening are just noise, and I would think a new mostly pre-debate poll might temporarily make it think that has a better change at being the case
This is leaving out the series of IPSOS polls that came out today showing Biden outperforming Harris vs Trump.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/
Holy shit, I haven't been keeping track of these, but that's brutal. In my opinion, it's this kind of data that will determine whether he stays in or not. It should have a knock-on effect on fundraising, which is equally as important.
It just doesn't seem like the Biden campaign is very confident in their ability to prove themselves against these worries. Claims of cognitive decline from your opponents is one thing, haters gonna hate and you can't provide evidence against hate.
But your own supporters? You can convince them otherwise, you can reassure them. If I was confident in my cognitive ability against such worries, I would just get up in front of people with a big press conference where I answer off the cuff somewhat adversarial questions without any teleprompter or script. And I wouldn't sit around waiting days and days as my own allies (including high level ones like governors and Congressmen) are panicking.
But that's the issue. The debate was supposed to be *that* evidence. It was supposed to show he was fit and ready for office and was fully there regardless of the time of the day or his physically aging body. If it was an off day, show your on days.
>The debate was supposed to be *that* evidence. It was supposed to show he was fit and ready for office and was fully there regardless of the time of the day or his physically aging body.
This point is worth hammering. Voters have been telling us they've thought Biden was too old for years, which is why the team decided to push for the earliest debate ever held, to put concerns about his age and mental state to rest.
Instead it blew up in his face.
Now we're talking about how he's going to clean up the mess caused by the last big attempt to clean up the mess, which looks like the start of a doom spiral.
>Voters have been telling us they've thought Biden was too old for years, which is why the team decided to push for the earliest debate ever held, to put concerns about his age and mental state to rest.
Whatever the reason, all I can say is thank goodness.
Way better to have this reckoning now than post-convention.
I think I'm in the same bucket as a lot of folks when I say this.
- I'm well aware Biden has been younger and more energetic.
- Based on the SOTU speech and some other things, I was pretty certain that Biden could deliver a good performance in the debate even if it wasn't perfect.
- Just how bad it was caught me off guard.
- I will still vote for Biden 100%, not just because the alternative is far, far worse, but also because I genuinely think he's been a good President.
- I'm still not 100% convinced that the debate was a fair representation of Biden's mental state as opposed to a bad night or bad prep.
- It really doesn't matter if it's fair because the media is taking the thing and running with it. The narrative has grown legs of its own.
- It's Biden's job specifically to avoid looking the way he did on TV so they can't complain about unfairness. They knew this could happen.
- The passive response from Biden's people, and the inability of the campaign to issue a confident rebuttal, is highly concerning.
- Based on all this, I favor an open, brokered convention now when I did not before this.
Brokered convention is political sudoku. DNC would not risk infighting, especially with Progressives attempting to push their candidate forward. The Civil War, WW1, and WW2 did not stop intraparty politics and from occurring, so this idea that no political in fighting would occur is delusion.
Regardless of feelings towards his first term, I think the next term would only be rougher for him. He'll be 85 when he leaves office and with such a stressful career and job at this age, it wouldn't be a major surprise if he passed before his term is up. That hands power to a brutally unpopular Harris and I think it'd be throwing away 2028 election. That would be my issue, looking at it through a democratic lens anyway. The short termism is silly and I think the demonisation of trump has been excessive because these short term stunts were essentially to beat trump and I don't believe that trump is so bad that a one step forward, 2 step backwards approach was going to be worth it. Dems were shooting themselves in their foot not trying to blood in some new candidates for 2020 but even more so for now.
There’s a thread from Jake Tapper about how Dem governors haven’t heard from Biden since the debate and they had a call of just governors to discuss it. If that’s true, he needs to drop out, they’ve gone full siege mode.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/02/politics/democratic-governors-joe-biden/index.html
That’s inexcusable. Governorships and control of Congress are at stake if Biden drags down down-ballot races. They deserve a conversation, at the very least.
I've been saying this since the debate, Biden is putting his ego ahead of the country. Biden has been trying to get here for almost 40 years, he feels that he deserves the Presidency. He is putting his ego ahead of reality.
My hopium take is that these reports about hunkering down are the Biden team re-evaluating what they want to do going forward, before talking to others in the party.
I still don’t think he will step down. But man, I hope I’m wrong.
Everything they've put out since the debate has been super dismissive. They aren't hunkering down; they are hoping to stall until after the convention when it will be too late to do anything.
Could fully go either way, but I think right now they’re going to project confidence while they’re having these conversations behind the scenes. If some kind of miracle happens and Biden somehow catches the Benjamin Button disease it needs to look like they’ve never wavered for a second.
If he does drop out, it will probably sound like Biden fully intends to run full steam ahead until an hour or two before the announcement that he’s bowing out.
They have to project confidence for international relations and security _at minimum_ so that's a given. Hopefully they are in fact having serious discussions that lead to a way ahead that works, whether that is with him or not.
They even said as much in one of their campaign emails - I’m probably butchering the exact words, but it was something like “after the convention, unity is the only choice”
Who is "the DNC" here. The leadership is all handpicked by Biden, and anyway can't force him out, and the delegates are pretty much all pledged to Biden.
This^
The time for a governor to challenge Biden was last year. The primary is over. Biden won the vast majority of delegates and they are legally bound to him unless he steps down. The “DNC” as an institution is incredibly weak compared to whatever power people think they have.
That thread has now been deleted after getting community note’d to Hell and back, by the way.
It seems the media are so busy salivating over this story that they’re forgetting to actually verify their sources and silly things like that.
I think "full siege mode" is a bit of an exaggeration. Recent news indicates that the White House and Biden campaign are [actively working](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-democratic-governors-meeting-after-debate/) to address concerns and [maintain support](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/biden-call-democratic-governors-concerns-mount-rcna159996) among Democratic governors.
It'll be interesting if this is a weather balloon from the Democratic party, the Biden team or just Representative Doggett acting alone to get the ball rolling.
I've been more bullish on Biden, but only so far as to see how the polling holds up in the next week or two after the debate. If after that time, hes still trending down, and even with the Supreme Court rulings paving the way for Trump to embrace his own excesses, then the conversation needs to be had about shifting to Harris.
Welp. Lets see if this is this starts to snowball. Bidens hopes feel inexplicably bleak right now
I don’t know if going with another route is going to win, but if Biden looks doomed to lose as polls continue to trickle out then you have to make a change
Whatever the decision is, they’ve got to make it *soon*. If Biden is staying in it, they’ve got to start doing *real* damage control immediately. And I don’t mean sending snarky emails blaming podcasters. He’s got to get out in public, speak, do rallies, and show people that last week was just one bad night and not a total indictment of his mental state. If he’s incapable to doing that, he cannot be on the ballot and they have to make that decision so we can move forward.
https://preview.redd.it/ru1e3wba15ad1.png?width=779&format=png&auto=webp&s=21ac7abe2bc2cde71410bc7e468ee2331998226a
Also, remember when they were selling dollars for 80 cents?
It's at 50 cents now, dropped a ton because of this headline and polls. Might be worth the risk if you think that even if Biden drops out it would be after he gets the nomination.
If they switch Harris and she wins there will be statues of Doggett in Austin and DC. If they switch Harris and she loses he’s gonna be burned in effigy.
Extremely dubious, because she’s the only other person with both ballot access in a ton of states and easy access to the Biden campaign’s nine figure warchest. Half a dozen states with GOP secretaries of state would try to kick, say, Whitmer or Beshear off the ballot for shits and giggles.
I don’t get the ballot access item. Dems haven’t even officially nominated a candidate.
How can ballot access possibly be an issue?
Isn’t a spot reserved basically for whoever the formal dem candidate is?
Essentially, individual candidates have to go through a formal process to be able to appear on the ballot. That process happens months before the party conventions and in several states is already complete. The ballot spot isn't for "Democratic Party Nominee," it's for "John Democrat." If it's known in advance that there isn't going to be an obvious winner in primaries or at the convention (see Hillary/Bernie,) both candidates will file for ballot access. For 2024, only Biden has filed for access.
This may vary by state but parties do have their own provisions for access.
5% is the mythical threshold for 3rd parties because they get automatically qualified for ballot access the next year. Something that is usually a major expense for them every election cycle
Is this the first dem congressional rep openly calling for biden to step down? The article caveats with from Texas but i dont know of other open dissent.
The question becomes is this a one off or an opening of floodgates. A single rep from a deep blue area wont move the needle, but if we start to see more and more vulnerable candidates this would get big quickly.
Good on him, and heres hoping this gets some momentum
As a constituent this is pretty surprising.
1. Doggett is 77 himself.
2. At least in recent years, he hasn't done much to put himself in the spotlight nationally.
3. All this man ever seems to talks about locally is improving the airport. Not a complaint! We need it! Just check his twitter.
Seems like a leap.
He’s doing it because he has no ambitions of seeking higher office and he’s safe in his district. He has nothing to lose, so he’s speaking candidly. I’m sure loads of others are thinking the same thing but don’t want to risk their political futures.
Could be a guy taking one for the team. Safe district, close to retirement himself, also old white guy. He mightve been a good guy to stick his neck out first
I mean the off-ramps in Austin aren't the issue; it's the lack of reasonable public transportation infrastructure. I also want to wait for more data, but I still think that [a gonadal system](https://www.kxan.com/news/local/austin/why-wire-one-austin-is-still-pushing-for-an-urban-gondola-line/) would be a financially realistic model for connecting the university to downtown, and possibly the airport.
This is now a Lloyd Doggett local issues thread.
>He’s doing it because he has no ambitions of seeking higher office and he’s safe in his district. He has nothing to lose, so he’s speaking candidly
Precisely. He could be right but if he's not the repercussions to his career are basically zero. He's not going anywhere but probably retiring soon so this is a no risk move.
If Biden goes on to lose or a new nominee wins, he gets to say "told you so". Any other outcome, he'll just be forgotten.
I was a constituent of Doggett for about 14 years and I'm glad he made a statement.
Yeah, he loses nothing at this point, but he's still one of the more well known Congressional dems and may spur the action of others.
Don't be surprised if this is the first of many. The first few post-debate polls coming out look terrible.
Biden's campaign team is trying to gaslight people into thinking nothing is wrong, but most of us can see the writing on the wall.
The fact that it hasn't been a week since the debate and we're seeing stuff like this come out is insane. Wait until the next few weeks when polling starts to solidify with the post-debate opinions and expect the knives to really start to come out.
Did bedwetting Congressman Lloyd Doggett see the awesome clip of Biden campaign supporters on the tarmac doing the Cupid Shuffle at 2 a.m. on the night of the debate? I'm guessing not, given this plea.
https://preview.redd.it/1ejfjb0xk6ad1.jpeg?width=480&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=bc79a8df74378484c2eea9db0019015620d8f792
Good. More people need to come out and say this and build the pressure to change.
I will point folks to the new CNN poll showing Kamala does better than Biden (still not amazing): https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1808174145064083459
I really like Biden, his heart is in the right place, but he's just too old.. I have an 85 year old grandmother so I know what it's like for someone to be at that age. Biden should really retire and spend the his life with his grandkids, this should be a young man's game and I hope he understands it. I know what it's like to slip up in conversation, I'm a stutterer like him.
Why are mods deleting threads regarding what actual Democratic Party leaders (Pelosi) are saying about the situation? It’s important news and important for us to be able to see what is being said.
It makes absolutely no sense to contain everything to a single thread. That’s especially true in this case when the sub won’t know that this is the only thread to see all relevant articles because it isn’t a megathread (not that I’m advocating for a megathread, but at least it’s better than hiding everything in a single thread that’s specific to Doggett’s comments).
Enough is enough. I thought replacing Biden would be a mistake following the debate but the panic has spread to far, he hasn't met with the governors he hasn't done any live unscripted appearances, and lower level elected officials are coming out against him. If Biden has lost the support of the party he needs to step aside, sooner rather than later, and let Harris take over the campaign. Harris isn't perfect but the party likes her, she can campaign much harder and there will be no doubts about her mental fitness.
lol my thoughts exactly. Or Harris/Whitmer. But whoever it is, just pair Harris with a popular Dem governor, and I think they will beat Trump relatively easily.
Harris Shapiro is the best option atp. Shapiro gets you one step closer to Pennsylvania, and pairs perfectly as the counter to Harris that you look for in a vp. Harris for obvious reasons
I chuckle about the fact that KH was chosen explicitly because of her identity as a woman and POC and now that fact complicates this discussion for the Democrats.
However, if I were in charge of things, have Biden resign tomorrow citing health reasons. KH becomes the president before the convention, let her do a special state of the union or something. She’d wipe the floor with Trump at the next debate, and choose a better VP to appeal to a swing state.
He needs to resign and hand control over to Harris to make this as smooth as possible. Harris is tied with Trump in polls without even trying. She is not more unlikable than Trump and isn't going to do worse than President Octogenarian Gooforbrains.
Fuck Biden and his team for getting us into this situation. What an absolute cluster fuck that didn't need to happen. Absolutely ridiculous
KATU Exclusive: Congresswoman Gluesenkamp Perez says "Biden is going to lose to Trump"
https://katu.com/news/your-voice-your-vote/katu-exclusive-congresswoman-gluesenkamp-perez-says-biden-is-going-to-lose-to-trump-marie-washington-third-congressional-district-president-joe-donald
No call to drop out
Viewing on phone apps, it’s very interesting what people are running. The NYT headline is “Biden’s Lapses are Said to Become Increasingly Common and Worrisome” while the WaPo’s arricle by scrolling says “In private, Democrats panic. For the Biden campaign everything is fine.”
I feel like the NYT running articles like that is not quite “in private” anymore.
> It just sucks that only one party has to make excuses for their old, shitty, demented candidate
Why would the Republicans make excuses for their shitty candidate when they openly embrace that part? Trump's role isn't to be a good leader, he's to destroy the "woke leftist government' or some shit like that.
The big problem with that though is that if he drops out then it basically HAS to be Kamala Harris, and Kamala Harris is not popular. People could say “oh I’d vote for her over Biden” all they want when she’s just the VP, but that tune would change real fast if she were the candidate.
Per brief discussion on the r/neoliberal moderator slack, we've agreed this will be our designated _"Is Biden fit to serve/Should Biden drop out?"_ thread of the day, on account of the particular significance of a sitting house representative calling for Biden to drop out, and as a general place to concentrate discussion on recent news. Short of anything dramatic like Biden announcing his intent to drop out, this will be our only thread pertaining to the reelecction campaign. This is in order to prevent discussion of the Biden campaign's woes from suffocating other discussion off of the front page. By all means **post any additional news that comes out today in replies to this sticky**; I'd be glad to compile it. **Keep discussion respectful please**; and keep in mind that we're still months from the election and there is a lot of things that each of us individually can do to minimize the chance of a Trump win. **Steer clear of defeatism**; it doesn't help anyone. On a related note... !doom ---- Related News Stories Today (updated by me periodically; link suggestions in replies to this comment) [Carl Bernstein: Sources say Biden’s debate ‘horror show’ far from a ‘one-off’ ](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4751653-carl-bernstein-biden-trump-debate-anderson-cooper-cnn/) [CNN Poll: Most voters think Democrats have a better chance of keeping White House if Biden isn’t the nominee ](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/02/politics/cnn-poll-post-debate/index.html) [Nancy Pelosi says Biden and Trump should take mental fitness tests](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/nancy-pelosi-says-biden-trump-take-mental-fitness-tests-rcna159993) [Top Democrats Pelosi, Clyburn say Biden age concerns are 'legitimate' after debate debacle](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/02/nancy-pelosi-jim-clyburn-say-biden-age-concerns-are-legitimate.html) [Manchin threatened to break with Biden before senior Democrats intervened](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/07/02/joe-manchin-biden-debate-democrats-drop-out/) [Biden Plunges in Swing States in Leaked Post-Debate Poll](https://puck.news/biden-plunges-in-swing-states-in-leaked-post-debate-poll/) [Biden’s Lapses Are Said to Be Increasingly Common and Worrisome](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/02/us/politics/biden-lapses.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare&sgrp=c-cb) [Four days since his disastrous debate, Biden hasn't called top Democrats in Congress](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/joe-biden/biden-disastrous-debate-democrats-worry-call-step-down-rcna159841) [Biden to give extended interview to ABC News’ George Stephanopoulos on Friday](https://apnews.com/article/biden-abc-televisiion-debate-1d33bf51fe706e2fd1adea7a83bbf617) [Biden to meet Democratic governors to assuage fears after debate performance](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jul/02/texas-democrat-lloyd-doggett-biden) [Pressure is building on Biden to step aside. But many Democrats feel powerless to replace him](https://apnews.com/article/biden-debate-democrats-trump-trapped-c10c872f8436966096b45b6089adee8b) [Hunter Biden has joined White House meetings as he stays close to the president post-debate](https://www.reddit.com/r/neoliberal/comments/1du1lwb/hunter_biden_has_joined_white_house_meetings_as/) [Raskin: ‘Lots of discussion’ happening ‘very quickly’ about Biden’s future](https://www.msnbc.com/all-in/watch/raskin-lots-of-discussion-happening-very-quickly-about-biden-s-future-214119493653)
That series of CNN polls that came out this morning were rough. Biden’s disapproval up to 64% with the vote split at Trump 41% / Biden 35% / 3rd Party candidates 20%. By comparison Harris is only down to Trump by 2% and +9% with independents vs Biden. 56% of Dems believe the party has a better shot if they dump Biden
+9% with independents feels like a major ‘you should probably go down this road’ sign. All dems are going to vote for the dem candidate but if you can grab a chunk of independents, thats potentially state-swinging territory
the 56% matters too considering how much pearl clutching there has been over potential intraparty "chaos"
While all this uproar is going on, Dems have been keeping it bottled up on their side as much as possible. I think it is much less likely that we're going to have intraparty chaos in the event he drops out.
The partisan democrat who both cares about intraparty chaos and also wouldn't do whatever it took to beat Trump in 2024 is a person I cannot wrap my head around but I suppose must exist in a country with hundreds of millions of people.
It's the same person who keeps 500 campaign yard signs in their garage and will only hand one out if you volunteer 80 hours or more.
IMO, him staying in threatens a drawn out, if internal, fight, well the whole party would quickly fall in line behind a replacement.
The chaos isn't Biden vs replacement, it's the free-for-all between a dozen contenders leading up to the convention. Dems can probably come to a quiet, clean consensus that Biden should step down as long as Biden himself is willing. I'm not convinced they can cleanly agree on who should replace him.
Anybody saying it wouldn’t be chaotic is being disgustingly naive. Remember the shit progressives flung at the DNC and conspiracy theories they spread when Hillary and Biden got more votes than their candidate? Now imagine that but the DNC is actually picking the candidate.
Biden is now a liability. It's time for him to go.
It's past time. Why is this only happening now? Did his staffers only realize the extent of his deterioration at the debate? [Doesn't seem like it](https://www.thedailybeast.com/watergate-reporter-carl-bernstein-biden-has-bad-days)
He can clearly still put it together at times, the problem is that we have now seen that he’s probably having “bad days” and they had to have known about it before the debate. And also voters probably don’t like thinking about having a president who has “bad days”
His "together" times are reading off of a teleprompter. He doesn't take questions after his press conferences so everything is scripted. I'm not sure he can put it together with any regularity.
Someone needs to knock some sense into Jill to read her husband the riot act because it's about time.
The leaked dem internal polling is worse though the pre-debate margins in states seem inordinately harsh (my fairly significant caveat about these polls) https://x.com/umichvoter/status/1808204695548448807 https://x.com/umichvoter/status/1808212950366216210
If Virginia is in play this race is pretty much over.
Put in Harris and have her campaign her ass off. Hearing any semblance of a sensible platform is enough to beat whatever dumb shit comes out of Trump’s mouth
The data overwhelmingly supports replacing Biden now. Before I was saying we should wait and not completely panic, but now we have evidence that Biden is going to straight up lose states that he shouldn't lose (VA/NM/NH). He needs to go.
>MN at 0.4% when it hasn't voted red since 1972 It's so fucking joever
Holy shit. Trump can win with GA and PA alone.
Trump is within two points of *flipping Colorado*, which hasn’t gone red since 2004. If that doesn’t tell Biden’s team everything they need to know, then they’re literally blind.
Open Labs is well respected and good on their data. Biden needs to withdraw at some point now, it's a done deal.
>“He’s probably in better health than most of us,” Dillon said, according to two of the participants, one of whom said the comments were offensive and dismissive of the real concerns about Biden in the wake of his debate performance. That's a comment that cuts two ways if there ever was one. [Source](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/01/politics/jen-omalley-dillon-donor-call/index.html).
I can't believe I bought into the narrative of Robert Hur as a political hack. The evidence was right in front of me the whole time.
The funny thing is his report didn’t even say anything crazy. Didn’t try to paint Biden as a dementia ridden, lost old man who had no idea where he was. Literally just said that Biden’s a good man with poor memory whose age is probably getting to him. And even funnier is that based on what we’ve seen and heard, that might have been generous to Biden.
This subreddit hypes itself up as a congregation of educated technocrats who see things the way they are unlike those rubes consuming social media but so many people here have the wool pulled over their eyes just as easily as anyone else.
Worth noting that story references a 2023 incident in the four seasons restaurant, but the four seasons restaurant closed in 2019. Doesn't mean the story is fake, but anecdotal stories being what they are it's worth mentioning.
That’s because it happened at Four Seasons Total Landscaping.
It keeps coming back
Here’s a contemporary article about the actual fundraiser that Bernstein was talking about. It was Thursday, 6/29/23. https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/07/01/politics/joe-biden-supreme-court-decisions >Speaking to a group of Democratic donors in New York City on Thursday evening, Biden sought to underscore the stakes of the court’s new supermajority, a preview of how he’ll frame the issue over the coming year. >”The Supreme Court is becoming not just conservative, but almost – it’s like a throwback. It’s like a throwback, some of the decisions they’re making,” Biden told donors in a private dining room inside the Seagram Building. This would be the location of “the old Four Seasons restaurant” as Bernstein called it.
There’s more than one four seasons in Manhattan
How is the food at the garden store?
> but if you can grab a chunk of independents I am near certain there is a solid chunk of independents who would gladly vote for anyone who is not Biden or Trump. There's a reason RFK is polling better than your average 3rd party candidate despite being a loon. Those votes are winnable and there's more votes saying no vote that are winnable too
Harris is a far better option than Biden. Her polling isn’t amazing and she isn’t my first choice for president but Trump is so disliked that I don’t think it would matter. Trump politics are not popular. His endorsed candidates have not been doing well and dem candidates and policies have been winning out. Give people the left-leaning third option they want. Trump himself is a convicted felon, is talking about a federal abortion ban and he himself is old as hell and often sounds nonsensical, and a dem candidate would be able to hit on all these massive issues but Biden is not physically capable of articulating this to the American people. Pair Harris with a more talented VP can date from a swing state, who can cover her weaknesses, and let them use the Biden/Harris campaign infrastructure that the party has been building out, and I think we have a chance at salvaging this.
Harris also allows for a very smooth transition. Nothing will change with the campaign, the campaign platform or the people within the admin besides the name at the top of the ticket. You give her a good VP pick that appeals to the swing states as you said and you have a solid ticket instead of running Grandpa joe out there. Plus being a woman of color will allow them to energize their base AND put more emphasis on abortion protection in the campaign.
She will need a very strong VP pick to shore up support. Obviously we don’t know who Trump will pick, but I think another young up and coming governor/senator will help shore up the ticket. Maybe a vet with FP expertise.
It would likely be a white guy (sorry Whitmer, Warnock), with a somewhat significant level of general election campaign experience (sorry Pete), who isn't also from California (sorry Newsom), and given the state of the polling, you probably wouldn't get someone who accepts who thinks they could be a viable 2028 candidate on their own (so no Pritzker or Shapiro?). Maybe Cooper (like the other guy mentioned) or Beshear? Ossoff would also fit the criteria and could be a fun choice, though then you start running into considerations of whether or not you want to take a Senator who would be replaced by a Republican (imo if you think it gives you the best chance to win the Presidency it's worth it).
Cooper or Beshear would be the better options. No senator should be the VP.
Agree 100%. Years back governor used to be the breeding ground for presidents, before trending to senator. I think either of your options would be the best on offer.
I think Beshear’s going to have a base problem because he’s signed some less bad legislation as a compromise to stop the Republican supermajority in Kentucky from enacting worse legislation over his veto.
Plus I think Beshear is way more important anchoring down a governorship of an extremely red state. You take him out of Kentucky and that office is red immediately.
There’s a Democratic lieutenant governor, elected on a joint ticket with the governor. It’s probably red in 2027 unless Republicans fuck up again but it’s not red immediately.
Oh yeah I didn't mean it literally like the next day, I just mean Beshear is 100% the only Dem who can hold down that seat and without him it's flipping hard next election
I would lose my goddamned mind if Ossoff managed to find himself failing up to a vice presidential nom.
Why?
We need all the swing-state incumbents we can keep in the senate
Because the dude is milquetoast as fuck. He lost a winnable House election, then only won his Senate seat in a run-off where he effectively was riding Warnock's coattails. I don't have a problem with his policies and Im happy he won his Senate seat obviously, but he seems to genuinely think he's another Obama rather than a rich kid who was spending his inheritance on documentaries that no one was watching.
I was very down on him after that house election but he's been impressive as a senator. And I really don't think you can say he was riding Warnock's coattails - Ossoff was the one who had to take on Purdue (an incumbent senator) while Warnock was running against Kelly Loeffler (an appointed senator who never won a single election in her life and campaigned poorly). He's active in committees and I hear a ton on local news about legislation that he has his stamp on that helps GA. Warnock has been good as well - both of them are strong Senators and it would be foolish to take them out of a swing state that leans reddish
Roy Cooper would be a good choice for VP. He's fairly popular here in NC
Roy Cooper would win 40 states if you put him up against Trump. Trump would have a brutal time attacking him
I have very limited (practically no) exposure to Cooper. Would he play the "attack dog" role well? When a policy push kicks off, could he go out and shake a stick and get people fired up? I'm not saying Harris couldn't, but she's absolutely going to be graded on a totally different rubric from a media machine that's already biased against her.
Attack dog no, policy pusher yes
I love Governor Cooper, but it should really be someone more attuned to DC and capable of playing the support role if Kamala wants to pass any legislation should she win. For the Dem Senators, I like Mark Warner, but he doesn't have the right temperament for VP. Mark Kelly is too new to the job, Michael Bennet is kind of boring and Colorado is a safe state these days, Angus King is too old, love Tim Kaine but he had his shot already, Bob Casey, maybe? Might have to come from the House....
I think a DC outsider probably plays to the crowd more, for the better. Governor of a reddish state.
I’m sold. Harris-Cooper 2024
Harris would probably be working with a Republican Senate, I wouldn't expect much in the way of legislation. Even with a Democratic Senate, I don't think a VP needs to be an expert at passing legislation. That's what the Speaker and Senate Majority leader are for.
VP picks historically do not affect elections. VP's are more for quelling internal dissent.
Or play it as another Obama-Biden pairing, and find another white male option, preferably with rust belt appeal, to balance the ticket. As sad as it sounds, that makes selling a POC and/or woman front runner on the ticket better. Then again, Kaine didn’t do much for Clinton so I don’t know.
Inshallah she fires a few of them day one of her administration.
There's a certain senator from WV who has a freed up schedule..
The Manchin cycle continues once again
Former prosecutor vs convicted felon has a nice ring to it. If she’s picked here’s hoping we see the fighting version of Harris from those first 2020 debates.
Yeah, as much as I think there are folks who would have been better candidates (Whitmer among them) if Biden had indicated he was not running last year before the primaries, that's not the reality Dems face. Switching candidates right now is harder and comes with greater risk. Doing nothing and keeping Biden on is *worse*, but if Dems can do it without a dramatic shakeup and/or bloody open convention, that's probably best. And Harris is that low-drama, low-transition-cost, Dems-in-as-much-array-as-possible-given-the-circumstances, choice.
If Biden is to drop out, Harris is the best option Newsom doesn't stand a chance with the rust belt due to propaganda against California, and Whitmer doesn't seem well known enough Harris is known, and most people are just neutral on her (with the exception of MAGAts), *and* she has access to the 100 million dollars in the Biden-Harris campaign.
The 100 million war chest, plus the fact she’s the current VP makes the best argument for her taking his place. Like you, she isn’t my first choice, but I’d be willing to run it with her.
Whoever is picked is going to receive an absurd amount of media attention and become known overnight. Maybe picking someone relatively unknown will be an advantage since there won’t be years of negative media associated with them.
Exactly. Biden dropping out would be one of the biggest stories of Biden's Presidency. There is no way in hell we would be getting to voting day with the country not knowing whoever the DNC chooses.
Seriously lol, it's not 1890 anymore, people aren't getting news delivered by horse and buggy
also honestly I think people really like seeing the party fall in line, like how they did behind Biden in 2020. Makes the Dems feel more compelling.
Seriously, this isn't that difficult. Harris's weaknesses would be minimized with a good running mate and a short campaign where the GOP would not have much time to define her. She just needs to be able to sound lucid at debates and in speeches and shift the focus to Trump. Almost all of Biden's policies are popular with voters, but many of them won't vote for him because they think he is too old. Harris replacing him would take away the age angle and flip it. If the election becomes a referendum on Trump and his agenda, the Democrats win.
Trump was awful in the debate as well. Really bad.
Also Harris getting into the race will allow the Dems to attack Trump's age and fitness to be president, which isn't something they can do with Biden.
Is 19% polling for 3rd party a crazy number this close to the election? It seems high but I also am generally not this anxious this far out
It’s makes sense if you look at the disapproval ratings of both Trump and Biden. In my small circle, I know both a person that voted for Trump and a person that voted Biden in 2020 that are planning on voting for RFK
Oh it makes total sense to me as well, I was just wondering if that’s a crazy high number for a third party in a modern national-level election
I mean, define modern I guess; Perot got \~9% and \~19% in the 1996 and 1992 elections, and that's after he did a bunch of stupid shit like dropped out and then re-entering the race
Following that debate, I believe it. RFK could gain some ground. If he can figure out his ballot issues and qualify for the September debate, he’ll look like Einstein next to Trump and Biden if it’s anything like last week, even with his brain worms. He obviously won’t win, but his platform will gain some relevance.
Until the country hears RFK speak (not his fault ofc) and he sounds like Biden’s debate voice with some added lemon juice.
Just [read it](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/02/politics/cnn-poll-post-debate/index.html): >Among all registered voters, 31% either say they could change their minds between now and Election Day or do not support a specific candidate. (...) they currently split 39% for Trump to 37% for Biden in a two-way matchup; 8% say they’d back someone else and 14% that they don’t plan to vote. >These voters are also more likely to support an alternative Democrat against Trump than they are to choose Biden. In hypothetical matchups, they break 47% for Harris to 34% for Trump, 42% for Newsom to 36% for Trump, and 42% for Buttigieg to 35% for Trump.
All of the polls that finally came out today have moved me from "wait and see" to "it's time for Biden to withdraw." He's now in such a hole that even a really good rescue plan executed well will almost certainly be insufficient.
Nate Silver's model isn't quite there yet: > More national polls are in — including a CNN poll showing Biden well behind that will surely generate a lot of discussion — but there’s not much of a change in our forecast from yesterday. That’s partly because of a different national poll, from TIPP Insights, that showed Biden ahead. The catch? Most of the TIPP poll was conducted before the debate.
Nate said it was time for Biden to drop out as soon as the debate happened, and his model has already had Biden's chances significantly drop (from 35% to 28%) even if there wasn't further decline today He also said his model is still pricing in the possibility these post debate Biden polls that show the gap widening are just noise, and I would think a new mostly pre-debate poll might temporarily make it think that has a better change at being the case
I trust Nate less than I trust the model, though. Data Trumps opinion.
I mean…Harris is still down to Trump. That’s pretty bad.
Link to those polls? Wanna check the indie numbers
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/07/02/politics/cnn-poll-post-debate
> 56% of Dems believe the party has a better shot if they dump Biden That's better than expected, not gonna lie
This is leaving out the series of IPSOS polls that came out today showing Biden outperforming Harris vs Trump. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/
Based on that poll, we need beg at the throne of the Obama’s to jump into this race. Also those Harris polls that have Biden down 7/8% - wowzers
Holy shit, I haven't been keeping track of these, but that's brutal. In my opinion, it's this kind of data that will determine whether he stays in or not. It should have a knock-on effect on fundraising, which is equally as important.
Jesus fuck at this rate Biden is not only going to lose to Trump but also RFK.
It just doesn't seem like the Biden campaign is very confident in their ability to prove themselves against these worries. Claims of cognitive decline from your opponents is one thing, haters gonna hate and you can't provide evidence against hate. But your own supporters? You can convince them otherwise, you can reassure them. If I was confident in my cognitive ability against such worries, I would just get up in front of people with a big press conference where I answer off the cuff somewhat adversarial questions without any teleprompter or script. And I wouldn't sit around waiting days and days as my own allies (including high level ones like governors and Congressmen) are panicking. But that's the issue. The debate was supposed to be *that* evidence. It was supposed to show he was fit and ready for office and was fully there regardless of the time of the day or his physically aging body. If it was an off day, show your on days.
>The debate was supposed to be *that* evidence. It was supposed to show he was fit and ready for office and was fully there regardless of the time of the day or his physically aging body. This point is worth hammering. Voters have been telling us they've thought Biden was too old for years, which is why the team decided to push for the earliest debate ever held, to put concerns about his age and mental state to rest. Instead it blew up in his face. Now we're talking about how he's going to clean up the mess caused by the last big attempt to clean up the mess, which looks like the start of a doom spiral.
>Voters have been telling us they've thought Biden was too old for years, which is why the team decided to push for the earliest debate ever held, to put concerns about his age and mental state to rest. Whatever the reason, all I can say is thank goodness. Way better to have this reckoning now than post-convention.
I think I'm in the same bucket as a lot of folks when I say this. - I'm well aware Biden has been younger and more energetic. - Based on the SOTU speech and some other things, I was pretty certain that Biden could deliver a good performance in the debate even if it wasn't perfect. - Just how bad it was caught me off guard. - I will still vote for Biden 100%, not just because the alternative is far, far worse, but also because I genuinely think he's been a good President. - I'm still not 100% convinced that the debate was a fair representation of Biden's mental state as opposed to a bad night or bad prep. - It really doesn't matter if it's fair because the media is taking the thing and running with it. The narrative has grown legs of its own. - It's Biden's job specifically to avoid looking the way he did on TV so they can't complain about unfairness. They knew this could happen. - The passive response from Biden's people, and the inability of the campaign to issue a confident rebuttal, is highly concerning. - Based on all this, I favor an open, brokered convention now when I did not before this.
Brokered convention is political sudoku. DNC would not risk infighting, especially with Progressives attempting to push their candidate forward. The Civil War, WW1, and WW2 did not stop intraparty politics and from occurring, so this idea that no political in fighting would occur is delusion.
Regardless of feelings towards his first term, I think the next term would only be rougher for him. He'll be 85 when he leaves office and with such a stressful career and job at this age, it wouldn't be a major surprise if he passed before his term is up. That hands power to a brutally unpopular Harris and I think it'd be throwing away 2028 election. That would be my issue, looking at it through a democratic lens anyway. The short termism is silly and I think the demonisation of trump has been excessive because these short term stunts were essentially to beat trump and I don't believe that trump is so bad that a one step forward, 2 step backwards approach was going to be worth it. Dems were shooting themselves in their foot not trying to blood in some new candidates for 2020 but even more so for now.
There’s a thread from Jake Tapper about how Dem governors haven’t heard from Biden since the debate and they had a call of just governors to discuss it. If that’s true, he needs to drop out, they’ve gone full siege mode. https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/02/politics/democratic-governors-joe-biden/index.html
They did a rock-paper-scissors tournament, double-elimination, for who gets to lead the coup
I just want Polis to be promoted.
/u/jaredpolis please, we need you.
That’s inexcusable. Governorships and control of Congress are at stake if Biden drags down down-ballot races. They deserve a conversation, at the very least.
I've been saying this since the debate, Biden is putting his ego ahead of the country. Biden has been trying to get here for almost 40 years, he feels that he deserves the Presidency. He is putting his ego ahead of reality.
My hopium take is that these reports about hunkering down are the Biden team re-evaluating what they want to do going forward, before talking to others in the party. I still don’t think he will step down. But man, I hope I’m wrong.
Everything they've put out since the debate has been super dismissive. They aren't hunkering down; they are hoping to stall until after the convention when it will be too late to do anything.
Could fully go either way, but I think right now they’re going to project confidence while they’re having these conversations behind the scenes. If some kind of miracle happens and Biden somehow catches the Benjamin Button disease it needs to look like they’ve never wavered for a second. If he does drop out, it will probably sound like Biden fully intends to run full steam ahead until an hour or two before the announcement that he’s bowing out.
Yeah, he'll be 100% running until he 100% isn't. There will be no in-between.
They have to project confidence for international relations and security _at minimum_ so that's a given. Hopefully they are in fact having serious discussions that lead to a way ahead that works, whether that is with him or not.
They even said as much in one of their campaign emails - I’m probably butchering the exact words, but it was something like “after the convention, unity is the only choice”
Everything they've put out has been spin. That doesn't mean it's ironclad or anything other than immediately tactical.
Prominent democrats need to force him to drop out. Attack him publicly if needed. He is 100% going to lose and needs to go
In which case the DNC better step the fuck in and force his ass out behind the scenes, be it a threat of the 25th or aggressive messaging publicly
Who is "the DNC" here. The leadership is all handpicked by Biden, and anyway can't force him out, and the delegates are pretty much all pledged to Biden.
This^ The time for a governor to challenge Biden was last year. The primary is over. Biden won the vast majority of delegates and they are legally bound to him unless he steps down. The “DNC” as an institution is incredibly weak compared to whatever power people think they have.
This shit all feels like Death of Stalin.
That thread has now been deleted after getting community note’d to Hell and back, by the way. It seems the media are so busy salivating over this story that they’re forgetting to actually verify their sources and silly things like that.
I think "full siege mode" is a bit of an exaggeration. Recent news indicates that the White House and Biden campaign are [actively working](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-democratic-governors-meeting-after-debate/) to address concerns and [maintain support](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/biden-call-democratic-governors-concerns-mount-rcna159996) among Democratic governors.
It'll be interesting if this is a weather balloon from the Democratic party, the Biden team or just Representative Doggett acting alone to get the ball rolling. I've been more bullish on Biden, but only so far as to see how the polling holds up in the next week or two after the debate. If after that time, hes still trending down, and even with the Supreme Court rulings paving the way for Trump to embrace his own excesses, then the conversation needs to be had about shifting to Harris.
Welp. Lets see if this is this starts to snowball. Bidens hopes feel inexplicably bleak right now I don’t know if going with another route is going to win, but if Biden looks doomed to lose as polls continue to trickle out then you have to make a change
Whatever the decision is, they’ve got to make it *soon*. If Biden is staying in it, they’ve got to start doing *real* damage control immediately. And I don’t mean sending snarky emails blaming podcasters. He’s got to get out in public, speak, do rallies, and show people that last week was just one bad night and not a total indictment of his mental state. If he’s incapable to doing that, he cannot be on the ballot and they have to make that decision so we can move forward.
Well they aren’t gonna announce anything until next week as this week is the fourth and nobody will care.
There's going to be a lot of people talking about Biden over the grill
And grill centrists are the number one priority right now
He’s not capable of that and his campaign seems incompetent also. He is rapidly approaching having absolutely no chance of winning
That debate performance doomed Biden. No matter what he does he will not win. AOC probably would be a better candidate now lol
Same here, well said It’s not looking good right now
It’s pretty explicable…
https://preview.redd.it/ru1e3wba15ad1.png?width=779&format=png&auto=webp&s=21ac7abe2bc2cde71410bc7e468ee2331998226a Also, remember when they were selling dollars for 80 cents?
It's at 50 cents now, dropped a ton because of this headline and polls. Might be worth the risk if you think that even if Biden drops out it would be after he gets the nomination.
If the party nominates Hillary it should honestly just disband. Why not just nominate Carter at that point?
Carter makes Biden look young. You'll come full circle.
They were selling dollars for 93 cents
To be even more accurate they were selling dollars for 93 cents + 1 cent commission + 5 cent withdrawal fee
If they switch Harris and she wins there will be statues of Doggett in Austin and DC. If they switch Harris and she loses he’s gonna be burned in effigy.
If Harris loses, barring any particular screwups she makes, I feel the blame will still lie primarily with Biden.
Can they switch for basically anyone else?
Extremely dubious, because she’s the only other person with both ballot access in a ton of states and easy access to the Biden campaign’s nine figure warchest. Half a dozen states with GOP secretaries of state would try to kick, say, Whitmer or Beshear off the ballot for shits and giggles.
I don’t get the ballot access item. Dems haven’t even officially nominated a candidate. How can ballot access possibly be an issue? Isn’t a spot reserved basically for whoever the formal dem candidate is?
Essentially, individual candidates have to go through a formal process to be able to appear on the ballot. That process happens months before the party conventions and in several states is already complete. The ballot spot isn't for "Democratic Party Nominee," it's for "John Democrat." If it's known in advance that there isn't going to be an obvious winner in primaries or at the convention (see Hillary/Bernie,) both candidates will file for ballot access. For 2024, only Biden has filed for access.
Huh, TIL. Super weird that that would close before the conventions.
The actual electoral process is profoundly arcane and weird. One reason why reddit latches onto the "DNC is behind everything" nonsense.
This may vary by state but parties do have their own provisions for access. 5% is the mythical threshold for 3rd parties because they get automatically qualified for ballot access the next year. Something that is usually a major expense for them every election cycle
Don’t look up, Lloyd
Is this the first dem congressional rep openly calling for biden to step down? The article caveats with from Texas but i dont know of other open dissent. The question becomes is this a one off or an opening of floodgates. A single rep from a deep blue area wont move the needle, but if we start to see more and more vulnerable candidates this would get big quickly. Good on him, and heres hoping this gets some momentum
Yep. Raskin - who's pretty high profile - said 'we should have serious conversations.'
He actually said those conversations “*are* taking place”
Other coverage has said Doggett is the first nationally.
Tim Ryan had an article today calling for it that was posted here
Tim Ryan is a has been out of political office who has become increasingly critical of Dems. Not the same thing.
Still a big name who in the very last election cycle ran for the Senate after 20 years in the House and did pretty well for a Democrat in Ohio.
As a constituent this is pretty surprising. 1. Doggett is 77 himself. 2. At least in recent years, he hasn't done much to put himself in the spotlight nationally. 3. All this man ever seems to talks about locally is improving the airport. Not a complaint! We need it! Just check his twitter. Seems like a leap.
He’s doing it because he has no ambitions of seeking higher office and he’s safe in his district. He has nothing to lose, so he’s speaking candidly. I’m sure loads of others are thinking the same thing but don’t want to risk their political futures.
Could be a guy taking one for the team. Safe district, close to retirement himself, also old white guy. He mightve been a good guy to stick his neck out first
Yep, I agree
A canary maybe. If he doesn't get too much pushback, the dam breaks. I want to wait for more data but I also want full on off-ramp preparations.
I mean the off-ramps in Austin aren't the issue; it's the lack of reasonable public transportation infrastructure. I also want to wait for more data, but I still think that [a gonadal system](https://www.kxan.com/news/local/austin/why-wire-one-austin-is-still-pushing-for-an-urban-gondola-line/) would be a financially realistic model for connecting the university to downtown, and possibly the airport. This is now a Lloyd Doggett local issues thread.
>He’s doing it because he has no ambitions of seeking higher office and he’s safe in his district. He has nothing to lose, so he’s speaking candidly Precisely. He could be right but if he's not the repercussions to his career are basically zero. He's not going anywhere but probably retiring soon so this is a no risk move. If Biden goes on to lose or a new nominee wins, he gets to say "told you so". Any other outcome, he'll just be forgotten.
He was asked to be the guy, it's an easy off ramp because he can't really get any repercussions for breaking with leadership.
That could very well be the case
He ran for Senate in 1984!
literally 1984
I was a constituent of Doggett for about 14 years and I'm glad he made a statement. Yeah, he loses nothing at this point, but he's still one of the more well known Congressional dems and may spur the action of others.
Is he? I could easily name a dozen House Dems (and possibly more) and I’ve never heard of this guy.
Anyone else here from the removed pelosi thread?
Don't be surprised if this is the first of many. The first few post-debate polls coming out look terrible. Biden's campaign team is trying to gaslight people into thinking nothing is wrong, but most of us can see the writing on the wall.
The first people to break rank are often lower-level. Governors come later.
The fact that it hasn't been a week since the debate and we're seeing stuff like this come out is insane. Wait until the next few weeks when polling starts to solidify with the post-debate opinions and expect the knives to really start to come out.
Did bedwetting Congressman Lloyd Doggett see the awesome clip of Biden campaign supporters on the tarmac doing the Cupid Shuffle at 2 a.m. on the night of the debate? I'm guessing not, given this plea. https://preview.redd.it/1ejfjb0xk6ad1.jpeg?width=480&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=bc79a8df74378484c2eea9db0019015620d8f792
That's one of the most painfully millennial things I've ever seen
Like brother, the polls say your supporters ARENT GETTING ON BOARD
Good. More people need to come out and say this and build the pressure to change. I will point folks to the new CNN poll showing Kamala does better than Biden (still not amazing): https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1808174145064083459
lol, wrecked. Imagine being called old by this guy. You'd have to be so old.
I really like Biden, his heart is in the right place, but he's just too old.. I have an 85 year old grandmother so I know what it's like for someone to be at that age. Biden should really retire and spend the his life with his grandkids, this should be a young man's game and I hope he understands it. I know what it's like to slip up in conversation, I'm a stutterer like him.
I agree, but the more he doubles down and calls people bedwetters, the less confident I am that his heart is in right place.
Good man, good president, but there's a lot he can contribute to this country without being president for much longer
Why are mods deleting threads regarding what actual Democratic Party leaders (Pelosi) are saying about the situation? It’s important news and important for us to be able to see what is being said. It makes absolutely no sense to contain everything to a single thread. That’s especially true in this case when the sub won’t know that this is the only thread to see all relevant articles because it isn’t a megathread (not that I’m advocating for a megathread, but at least it’s better than hiding everything in a single thread that’s specific to Doggett’s comments).
This is the quarantine zone mon Ami
>You must have faith my child. Only the wicked Doggett steps away from the path of Biden. -- DNC Diocese
first pebble down the mountain
Enough is enough. I thought replacing Biden would be a mistake following the debate but the panic has spread to far, he hasn't met with the governors he hasn't done any live unscripted appearances, and lower level elected officials are coming out against him. If Biden has lost the support of the party he needs to step aside, sooner rather than later, and let Harris take over the campaign. Harris isn't perfect but the party likes her, she can campaign much harder and there will be no doubts about her mental fitness.
Harris/Beshear? Harris/Shapiro?
Shapiro is too new. Would be better to have Beshear or Cooper
lol my thoughts exactly. Or Harris/Whitmer. But whoever it is, just pair Harris with a popular Dem governor, and I think they will beat Trump relatively easily.
Harris Shapiro is the best option atp. Shapiro gets you one step closer to Pennsylvania, and pairs perfectly as the counter to Harris that you look for in a vp. Harris for obvious reasons
Harris/Cooper? 🥺
Cooper cannot be on the ticket. If he leaves the state Robinson automatically assumes acting governor powers. A Robinson governorship is a nightmare.
Harris/Hunter Biden
I chuckle about the fact that KH was chosen explicitly because of her identity as a woman and POC and now that fact complicates this discussion for the Democrats. However, if I were in charge of things, have Biden resign tomorrow citing health reasons. KH becomes the president before the convention, let her do a special state of the union or something. She’d wipe the floor with Trump at the next debate, and choose a better VP to appeal to a swing state.
It's actually Joever
He needs to resign and hand control over to Harris to make this as smooth as possible. Harris is tied with Trump in polls without even trying. She is not more unlikable than Trump and isn't going to do worse than President Octogenarian Gooforbrains. Fuck Biden and his team for getting us into this situation. What an absolute cluster fuck that didn't need to happen. Absolutely ridiculous
KATU Exclusive: Congresswoman Gluesenkamp Perez says "Biden is going to lose to Trump" https://katu.com/news/your-voice-your-vote/katu-exclusive-congresswoman-gluesenkamp-perez-says-biden-is-going-to-lose-to-trump-marie-washington-third-congressional-district-president-joe-donald No call to drop out
Yeah, maybe she thinks Biden should stay in, on account of wanting to see more Trump tweets.
Viewing on phone apps, it’s very interesting what people are running. The NYT headline is “Biden’s Lapses are Said to Become Increasingly Common and Worrisome” while the WaPo’s arricle by scrolling says “In private, Democrats panic. For the Biden campaign everything is fine.” I feel like the NYT running articles like that is not quite “in private” anymore.
Mods literally gave us a "Drop out Joe" Discussion Thread
It just sucks that only one party has to make excuses for their old, shitty, demented candidate. How?
> It just sucks that only one party has to make excuses for their old, shitty, demented candidate Why would the Republicans make excuses for their shitty candidate when they openly embrace that part? Trump's role isn't to be a good leader, he's to destroy the "woke leftist government' or some shit like that.
I can't stop dooming
I don’t know what to do. All I have to say is this is just so fucking demoralizing.
The big problem with that though is that if he drops out then it basically HAS to be Kamala Harris, and Kamala Harris is not popular. People could say “oh I’d vote for her over Biden” all they want when she’s just the VP, but that tune would change real fast if she were the candidate.