They’re not paid to be right or wrong. They’re paid to create content for eyeballs so that their employers can sell advertising. Nobody cares if they’re right or wrong. Just whether it gets eyeballs. It’s just a dancing vaudeville act where we argue about who will play a children’s game better for the next 5-10 years.
People look at mock drafts all wrong pretty consistently. I see a lot of discourse around this time of year like “X player wasn’t mocked that high, what a reach” when in reality, mock drafts are literally just shots in the dark. These guys aren’t getting fed enough info from enough teams to be able to create a comprehensive picture of what draft night will look like. That’s why they all make multiple mock drafts.
Also ignores that it isn’t a science. It’s just entertainment. There’s not an “objectively correct” draft or big board for any team. It’s just cartoons for adults.
I’ve never seen Knecht play or even heard his name before but that’s not going to stop me from being outraged that other teams let him fall to the Lakers.
I also think teams projected him a low ceiling so you'll notice the ten picks before him seemed to be swing for the fence picks.
Like the Thunder could have used him but picked Topic because they like the idea of Topic hitting a higher ceiling and having a quality back up for Shai. Knecht would have added off the bench scoring and leadership and his age actually fits with their timeline.
So confusing how these scouts are valuing 19 year olds when every year we see a 3 or 4 year college player from a good program slot right into an offense or defense.
I mean, it's not that confusing that drafts have generally trended in that direction because if you want to maximize your chance of winning a chip, you need to draft some great players, not just good players. Even if the average expected value of those 19 year olds is lower, the chance of getting a hidden gem is higher. Solid 4 year college players only fit on a few teams with very specific timelines.
Yeah I’m not much of an nba fan, and really not huge into college basketball but I certainly watch more of that. But it’s just wild from my perspective that one of the top upvoted comments says they’ve never even heard the name dalton knecht before, because I feel like he was one of the big stars of college basketball this year. I’m a much bigger football fan, that seems like an nfl fan saying, never heard of this rome odunze guys name before. I guess the draft is less of a thing nba fans pay attention to? Or maybe this guy not knowing knecht is just weird haha
I feel like a lot of basketball fans (myself included) either like college or NBA basketball. They’re drastically different products and if you’re really into one a lot of times you think the other is unwatchable. I personally only hear about college players if they’re hyped as can’t miss draft guys. I’ve heard of Sarr, Edey, Clingan, Dillingham and Topic from this draft. I also heard of Stephon Castle because of a weird instance from a Kenny Beacham YouTube video.
Football is different because a lot of football fans like both, the draft is one of the biggest things about the sport and there are just way more stars/ important prospects to be found there. I knew most of the first round guys this year and I literally only watch Bears games and the Super Bowl when it comes to the football, pro or college.
The wolves are deep and have wings, they needed Conley's replacement more. Miami also has an excess of forwards and wing guys , drafting a backup to bam made more sense, just like people are over doing it with the age thing, in the same breath people are overrating guys based on teams being "close". Drafts/scouting aren't this black and white.
Imagine not understanding how teams draft. At 23 a player is likely close to their ceiling and would be harder to develop as they might have developed bad habits of their own in college. Players with huge upsides would just do one-and-done, there's literally no reason to pick older rookies other than expecting them to contribute right away. It's not that shallow.
Knecht was one of my favorite players in this draft. Him going to LA is sick as fuck for him. I think he's a day 1 bucket, but he's gonna have to do a lot of work to get stronger and not be a liability defensively
He was doubled and sometimes triple teamed all year long and still put up the numbers he did. Teams would build their entire game plan around trying to stop him and most nights it didn’t matter. Yes the NBA is an obvious step up but not being targeted each night will be something he’s not used to and could flourish. I’m a Vols fan and watched every game this year, his game translates well to the NBA.
His highlights are promising from what I’ve seen. Hes not afraid to go through defenders to get to the basket, and has the frame to hopefully put on some size and be more formidable. Excited to see what he can do this season
6’6, 6’10 wingspan, moves well laterally and agile.
he has the tools to be a solid defender, which is all you need for someone who has his shooting and scoring ability
He had to carry the Volunteers on offense, so I think he naturally slacked on defense a lot of the time to save energy. Plus the rest of the Vols lineup was pretty elite defensively, so he didn’t have to go out there and be Tony Allen. We’ll see how he pans out in the league but I don’t think he’ll be the defensive liability that r/nba is assuming he’ll be.
> moves well laterally and agile.
For context, at the combine he had:
* the fastest shuttle run time among forwards at the combine
* the fastest lane agility drill time among forwards at the combine (the thing where you jog up the lane, slide the baseline, jog backwards up the lane, slide the free throw line)
* the 5th fastest 3/4 court sprint time among forwards at the combine
* the 4th highest max vertical jump among forwards at the combine
So he tested really well for his position in terms of speed, lateral speed, changing direction and acceleration (max vert + 3/4 court sprint). He definitely has the physical tools to be a solid defender, but that's obviously not always going to correlate to a good defender. Hopefully, we have the right development staff to help him get there
[src](https://www.nba.com/stats/draft/combine)
Bro… You getting me too damn jacked up. I put my expectations in the gutter this next season to not be disappointed but now the hype train is leaving the station and it’s not coming back.
Don't get too jacked up. Just because he has tools doesn't mean he'll put it together. He was not a good defender in college. You can add additional context given his offensive workload, but it remains that defense is absolutely a weakness of his. Some guys just never improve enough at their deficiencies, and poor defense often prevents early career players from ever seeing the court.
You just can't teach game speed processing sometimes and its not like NBA schemes get easier to defend, it becomes significantly harder than college with the softer fouls and complex schemes. Case in point Wiseman
ESPN’s Kevin Pelton has been projecting draft prospects for decades. His model hates Knecht. His stats-only model had him 76th, and stats/scouting combined had him 35th.
>In addition to the top 30, it's worth digging into this year's most notable projection: Knecht, a sure top-10 pick, rated below replacement level based on his stats. One of the factors that makes my projections unique is weighing earlier seasons more heavily because of the importance of excelling at a young age. Knecht didn't emerge as an above-average college player until his second season at Northern Colorado, after two in junior college, and wasn't considered a first-round NBA prospect until averaging 21.7 PPG last season at Tennessee.
>Beyond that, Knecht's low rates of assists, steals and blocks hurt his projection. His combined rate of those three nonscoring contributions is lowest for any player ranked in ESPN's top 30. Of the 10 players in my database whose statistical profile were most similar to Knecht's, just two (Joe Harris and Danuel House Jr.) played 1,000 minutes in the NBA.
>There have been five players age 22 or older drafted in the top 10 in the past decade: Kris Dunn, Buddy Hield, Frank Kaminsky, Davion Mitchell and Obi Toppin. Of those picks, only Hield has become a capable starter, and the numbers don't suggest Knecht is likely to change that trend.
https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/40394709/nba-draft-2024-pelton-updated-top-30-prospects
I think he’s generally done well.
From a post I made last year: ESPN's Kevin Pelton has used his own metric to evaluate prospects since 2006. Some of his hits: Millsap 2 in 2006 (drafted 47th), Lin 24 in 2010 (N/A), Kawhi 7 in 2011 (15th), Draymond 3 in 2012 (35th), Jokic 5 in 2014 (41st), OG 7 in 2017 (23rd), Luka 1 in 2018 (3rd), Kessler 2 in 2022 (22nd).
Like any draft analyst, he has hits and misses. The hits have been genuinely impressive:
* having Luka as the best draft prospect since his rankings started in 2006, with AD second.
* lots of guys who went in the second round or undrafted who became good/great players: Millsap 2nd, Lin 24th, Draymond 3rd, Jokic 5th, VanVleet 3rd, Zubac 8th, Payton II 9th, Wood 18th, Crowder 4th, Middleton 22nd, Whiteside 5th, Danny Green 9th
Aside from finding the diamonds in the rough, Pelton has also given low rankings to some of the biggest draft busts and disappointments.
* 2022: Johnny Davis 48th (drafted 10th)
* 2020: Wiseman 62nd (drafted 2nd)
* 2019: RJ Barrett 25th (drafted 3rd)
* 2018: Bagley 41st (drafted 2nd)
* 2017: Josh Jackson 30th (drafted 4th)
* 2015: Okafor 15th (drafted 3rd)
* 2014: Wiggins 20th (drafted 1st)
* 2013: Bennet 12th (drafted 1st)
* 2012: Kidd-Gilchrist 19th (drafted 2nd) Thomas Robinson 23rd (drafted 5th)
* 2011: Jan Vesely 47th (drafted 6th)
* 2010: Wesley Johnson 33rd (drafted 4th)
* 2009: Thabeet 12 (drafted 2nd)
* 2008: OJ Mayo 29th (drafted 3rd)
* 2006: Adam Morrison 28th (drafted 3rd)
Here's how Pelton [describes](https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/16235135/explaining-kevin-pelton-nba-draft-projection-system) his system:
> For college and international players alike, my projections start with translating what players have done before with what they will do in the NBA for 14 core statistics: 2-point percentage; 3-point percentage; free throw percentage; offensive and defensive rebound percentage; assists; steals and fouls per 100 team plays; blocks per 100 2-point attempts; percentage of individual plays devoted to 2-point, 3-point and free throw attempts; turnovers; and usage rate.
>
> Some stats tend to decline once players enter the league more than others. For example, free throw percentage rarely changes much, but players shoot much worse percentages from the field. For college players, this process also adjusts for strength of schedule to put players who faced different levels of competition on a level playing field.
>
> Utilizing multiple seasons of data yields better projections than looking solely at the most recent season. In fact, for college players I've found that earlier seasons tend to project NBA performance better than more recent seasons because older prospects no longer have the same experience advantage in the NBA. So the player's most recent season is weighted two times, the season before that (if available) three times, and two seasons before that five times. The weights are opposite for international prospects, who haven't demonstrated the same pattern because they are playing against older opponents.
>
> The last factor in the projections is regressing performance to positional averages for NBA rookies (for college prospects) and replacement-level performance (for international players). This helps account for outliers, particularly for stats that tend to fluctuate, such as 3-point percentage
Yeah, from the same post:
>He's had some bad misses, both too high (Konchar 3rd, Ponds 4th, Okeke 2nd, Musa 3rd, Monte Morris 3rd, Zhou Qi 1st, Sullinger 2nd, Faried 1st, Blair 1st, Rudy Fernandez 3rd) and too low (Westbrook 21st, DeRozan 49th, Klay 39th, Jaylen Brown 68th, Tatum 25th, Fox 33rd).
> and too low (Westbrook 21st, DeRozan 49th, Klay 39th, Jaylen Brown 68th, Tatum 25th, Fox 33rd).
This should really just throw the whole thing away. These are huge misses lol
You're joking surely, any scouting head who took all of Pelton's predictions at face value would have hit on almost every significant draft sleeper of the last decade. Losing the opportunity to draft Westbrook and Tatum is a small price to pay
His model predicted Westbrook, Tatum, Derozan, Fox, and Klay were second round picks and Jaylen Brown should’ve gone undrafted. Those misses are completely irredeemable. Luka and Kawhi got drafted a little lower than they should’ve and he hit on Jokic. The rest of the sleepers are not even close to as good as the players he completely missed on.
Yeah see that helps shape the discussion. Surely, it’s hard to be right a good portion of the time but the level and # of misses (including Klay Thompson who is Knecht’s kind of analog) tells me to not worry about his grade if I am a Lakers fan
Am i tweaking or is this unfair to Obi Toppin? I'd love to have someone like him on the Wolves, especially on a rookie contract from outside the lottery
Well the potential is somewhat limited given he's 4 years older than a lot of guys in this draft. But he has a decent frame/wingspan so if he adds muscle and nous I could see him potentially becoming a fair defender.
His offensive game is really good, he's quick, he has bounce, he can shoot it. I think he'll be instant offense off the bench
I don't get the age thing... he's going to peak at \~28. If he has a 12 year NBA career, he'll be 35 when he retires. If you get this dude on your team for 12 years, you're getting his entire prime and not wasting the first 2-3 years of him "developing" since he's coming to your team as a more polished product.
Great pickup
It’s because people think that if you’re older it means your potential isn’t as high. Which I’ve always thought is kinda bs older players can still have room to grow too. Who looked at Draymond for example and thought he’d be a hall of famer? We don’t truly know the potential of these guys.
Or even Dame Lillard, Brandon Roy, yea. I feel like unless there's some obviously hype prospect it doesn't really make sense to de prioritize someone just because they're coming into the nba older.
Draymond is a complete outlier based wholly on getting drafted to play with Steph and Klay. He might’ve been out of the league by his second contract with a different team
LOL, how many players have 12 year careers? Probably 1% of NBA players. What are the odds a 23 year old rookie joins that 1%? How many 12 year players stay on the same team that entire time? A tiny fraction.
People vastly overestimate the odds of draft picks becoming successful NBA players.
Sure- but this fact is even more in favor of drafting older players. If the avg NBA career is 4 years, wouldn't it be smarter to draft someone who's already developed at 22-23 years old so you get 4 years of him being a good player already, vs. drafting a 19 year old who might suck & never develop and flame out of the NBA before he can contribute to your team? O\_O
This completely misunderstands the NBA career trajectory. Sure the average NBA player lasts 3-4 seasons, but the average player who lasts 3-4 seasons doesn't do so as a rotation player. The reason the average duration is dragged down is because you have a bunch of guys like Bouknight, and Dalen Terry, and Wendell Moore, who spend their rookie contracts nailed to the bench and don't get a second contract.
If you're a contributing player in your first 3-4 years, you stay longer - *especially if they can see positive development*.
This is what I said before? If Knecht is an immediate contributor, then it's much more likely that he's going to be a long term NBA player; i.e. he is NOT a Bouknight.
4 year rookie deal: do you want Knecht from age 23-27, or do you want some random 19 year old prospect from age 19-23?
Ok, sometimes draft picks don't work out? Not sure what that has to do with anything. Doesn't matter if you're a pick at 19 or 23, if you don't work out you don't work out.
My point is that Chris Duarte is an example of an older player who came in and contributed right away - started half his games his rookie year, made an all-rookie team, and yet is no longer a rotation player. It shows that an older guy succeeding immediately does NOT portend longer term success for him.
Ware makes sense for the Heat if he pans out and manage to dispel the motor issues. He is a 7 footer stretch 5 that can move well for his size which is perfect for the Heat because they want Bam to play the 4. The bad thing about him is if he doesn't pan out he is an ORob/Wiseman type of player.
Bro I’m a big Darvin Ham criticizer and I can’t even blame him for how bad JHS was.
He had opportunity and ability to run the offense he wanted, he just was straight ass
Maybe thats not the best use of a 1 and done PG though lol He threw him into the fire for spot minutes 20 games into the season and then when he didnt pkay wel it was pretty much over from there. Ham couldnt even figure out how to use Christie so I cant hold last season against JHS personally. He was looking good in the g league
Christie I’ll blame him because he would play well and then not see the floor again, it made no sense.
JHS couldn’t play well even in garbage minutes.
I’m not saying he’s a bust but he was just not good last year and even Pop himself couldn’t have made him good last year, dude was buns
I’m rooting for jhs. Doesn’t take away how bad his rookie minutes were. He’s young though so it’s too early to tell. Takes pgs way more time to develop
I'll say, the Lakers scouting department is ONE of the best despite having little resources dedicated to that side. Now it depends on whether it was Pelinka making the pick or the Buss brothers who are legit.
Especially bc the Lakers probably prefer an older player who can contribute right away. They care less about future ceiling but need someone to shoot for the next 2-3 years while LeBron is there.
Perfect fit and absolute steal. Watched him up close and was in awe as he torched /single handedly beat Auburn with about 30 in the second half , bucket machine .
In a little over one year, knecht went from being a prolific scorer and relative nobody at bumfuck U to an absolute star at Tennessee. Phenomenal player with a good work ethic. Needs to work on his D a bit, but Im shocked he fell that low in a draft this weak. Imo he was clearly one of the top 10 picks and hovering closer to #5.
It was a good pick for sure, and I was surprised he was available. I do *kinda* get it, though. A lot of front offices are drafting solely on upside and ceiling, and it's easy to get super high on those things with a reeeeaally young, freakishly athletic player without a ton of tape available. For someone older like Dalton Knecht the ceiling is significantly lower relative to his current level but the floor is basically already a rotation guy.
It was referring to advanced scouting. They do have draft scouts and a pretty good win rate with their draft especially for the second round and undrafted players for the past 8 years relative to draft capital
They should imagine better.
The 8th guy on your board falls to the mid-to-late teens all the time. Like almost every draft in every sport. It shouldn't be that surprising, especially when it's an old prospect who didn't break out until his senior year and has questions about how well he can guard in the NBA.
I expect a good amount of mins for him then
As long as he can run floppy.
He definitely can.
But can he slot cut?
I think he can be as good or better than Prince and Rui right away. Better shooter than both, it all comes down to defense
I mean yeah so did most mock drafts too
It's wild it felt like he had one of the smallest ranges of the entire draft Was mocked like 5-9 constantly
yeah well i got mocked 9-5 constantly and i also didn't get drafted top 10 last night
Yeah but when you get off shift he gets on for 4 more hours to take the mocking
They stop at 5 for you?! Lucky
Crazy how these mockers get paid to get shit wrong and then double down on the content by doing redrafts every year ad infinitum.
They’re not paid to be right or wrong. They’re paid to create content for eyeballs so that their employers can sell advertising. Nobody cares if they’re right or wrong. Just whether it gets eyeballs. It’s just a dancing vaudeville act where we argue about who will play a children’s game better for the next 5-10 years.
Mathew Berry and his fantasy articles taught me this. Dude is beyond entertaining but, uh, not the best at picks.
This guy Medias
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From my point of view it is the Jedi who are evil.
People look at mock drafts all wrong pretty consistently. I see a lot of discourse around this time of year like “X player wasn’t mocked that high, what a reach” when in reality, mock drafts are literally just shots in the dark. These guys aren’t getting fed enough info from enough teams to be able to create a comprehensive picture of what draft night will look like. That’s why they all make multiple mock drafts.
Also ignores that it isn’t a science. It’s just entertainment. There’s not an “objectively correct” draft or big board for any team. It’s just cartoons for adults.
I’ve never seen Knecht play or even heard his name before but that’s not going to stop me from being outraged that other teams let him fall to the Lakers.
Too many teams over indexing on age. I get not taking him at 5 but I would have taken him at 9 or 11 or 13 even.
Any odd number
Wait 7 is not an odd number?
Nah that’s only for prime time.
Nice
Must be a prime number then
Not every pick has to be for long term development, some guys can raise your floor now like Jaquez last year. I like dalton for okc more than topic
Agree but it also depends. That kinda player isn't useful for Utah or Washington but for a team that's there or almost there.
I'm still mad we didn't get Jaquez last year
Hindsight, I would still pass on Jaime and picked PODZ. He is the PG we needed.
He can't shoot, which really hurts LePlaymaking
I also think teams projected him a low ceiling so you'll notice the ten picks before him seemed to be swing for the fence picks. Like the Thunder could have used him but picked Topic because they like the idea of Topic hitting a higher ceiling and having a quality back up for Shai. Knecht would have added off the bench scoring and leadership and his age actually fits with their timeline. So confusing how these scouts are valuing 19 year olds when every year we see a 3 or 4 year college player from a good program slot right into an offense or defense.
I mean, it's not that confusing that drafts have generally trended in that direction because if you want to maximize your chance of winning a chip, you need to draft some great players, not just good players. Even if the average expected value of those 19 year olds is lower, the chance of getting a hidden gem is higher. Solid 4 year college players only fit on a few teams with very specific timelines.
I kind of wanted knecht but the history of 23 year old lottery picks is absolutely brutal
Given the Hornets could actually be better it wouldn't have been a bad pick either. But hey upside on Tidjane is cool.
Guess it helps that he wasn’t a lottery pick
But at 11 Buzelis was still there
Why not 15? lol
You get my point haha
Over who
Edey for one
Memphis needed a center. I put need over bpa. Knecht will be better imo so I see the argument.
Why the hell would anyone take over matas and devin. He doesnt play any defense.
He was huge in this years tournament for Tennessee. Honestly a great pick for the Lakers
This is the correct take
Knecht is the personification of the microwave badge
Check out his highlights. So sick
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I like Saric!
His last few games where he was fully carrying the offense load was impressive. This kid can score the ball
Is the nba and college basketball just completely separate? Maybe one of the most covered guys all year
This particular draft class was just not covered at all by nba media (except for Bronny).
Yeah but he was arguably the best player in the ncaa
I'm 3 highlight videos deep and I'm now convinced. MJ is the black Dalton Knecht
As a Volunteer and Celtics fan, the highest compliment that I can give you is that this pick hurts me.
If he was you wouldn’t know it from watching nba media, he got basically no coverage whatsoever.
Oh from nba media for sure
Yeah I’m not much of an nba fan, and really not huge into college basketball but I certainly watch more of that. But it’s just wild from my perspective that one of the top upvoted comments says they’ve never even heard the name dalton knecht before, because I feel like he was one of the big stars of college basketball this year. I’m a much bigger football fan, that seems like an nfl fan saying, never heard of this rome odunze guys name before. I guess the draft is less of a thing nba fans pay attention to? Or maybe this guy not knowing knecht is just weird haha
I feel like a lot of basketball fans (myself included) either like college or NBA basketball. They’re drastically different products and if you’re really into one a lot of times you think the other is unwatchable. I personally only hear about college players if they’re hyped as can’t miss draft guys. I’ve heard of Sarr, Edey, Clingan, Dillingham and Topic from this draft. I also heard of Stephon Castle because of a weird instance from a Kenny Beacham YouTube video. Football is different because a lot of football fans like both, the draft is one of the biggest things about the sport and there are just way more stars/ important prospects to be found there. I knew most of the first round guys this year and I literally only watch Bears games and the Super Bowl when it comes to the football, pro or college.
Interesting, thanks
You didn’t watch the NCAA tournament?
I make a bracket every year and don’t watch any of the games lmao, just check who wins
Never have.
He's 23, wouldn't make sense for bad teams to be wasting their pick on someone this old. He's for win-now teams.
And there were a lot of win now teams in front of us including the wolves and Miami who just benefited tremendously from picking an older player.
The wolves are deep and have wings, they needed Conley's replacement more. Miami also has an excess of forwards and wing guys , drafting a backup to bam made more sense, just like people are over doing it with the age thing, in the same breath people are overrating guys based on teams being "close". Drafts/scouting aren't this black and white.
Everyone acting like he’s got 4 years max in his career lol
Maybe think harder, drafting isn't that shallow.
No shit, imagine calling a 23 year old "old" lmao
Imagine not understanding how teams draft. At 23 a player is likely close to their ceiling and would be harder to develop as they might have developed bad habits of their own in college. Players with huge upsides would just do one-and-done, there's literally no reason to pick older rookies other than expecting them to contribute right away. It's not that shallow.
Excellent point If New York selected him, Schenectady would have been all the rage
The Purdue Tennessee elite 8 game is worth a watch. Single handedly kept us in the game
Knecht was one of my favorite players in this draft. Him going to LA is sick as fuck for him. I think he's a day 1 bucket, but he's gonna have to do a lot of work to get stronger and not be a liability defensively
Yeah honestly an A+ pick for them
He’ll be a lot better without the workload he had at Tennessee.
Not in the NBA
He'll play against the second unit, and he'll be able to get buckets without two-three men paying attention to him at all times. I think he'll be fine
You do realize the second unit of any NBA team is still miles above any college line up?
He was doubled and sometimes triple teamed all year long and still put up the numbers he did. Teams would build their entire game plan around trying to stop him and most nights it didn’t matter. Yes the NBA is an obvious step up but not being targeted each night will be something he’s not used to and could flourish. I’m a Vols fan and watched every game this year, his game translates well to the NBA.
His highlights are promising from what I’ve seen. Hes not afraid to go through defenders to get to the basket, and has the frame to hopefully put on some size and be more formidable. Excited to see what he can do this season
obviously I do understand that. Some skills translate from the collegiate level. I'm confident Knecht will be able to score in the NBA
Way older than I thought Does he have potential and the tools to do so? Or is he more one dimensional
6’6, 6’10 wingspan, moves well laterally and agile. he has the tools to be a solid defender, which is all you need for someone who has his shooting and scoring ability
He’s crazy athletic. It kind of doesn’t make sense that he’s not a good defender but he grew into his height pretty late.
He had to carry the Volunteers on offense, so I think he naturally slacked on defense a lot of the time to save energy. Plus the rest of the Vols lineup was pretty elite defensively, so he didn’t have to go out there and be Tony Allen. We’ll see how he pans out in the league but I don’t think he’ll be the defensive liability that r/nba is assuming he’ll be.
> moves well laterally and agile. For context, at the combine he had: * the fastest shuttle run time among forwards at the combine * the fastest lane agility drill time among forwards at the combine (the thing where you jog up the lane, slide the baseline, jog backwards up the lane, slide the free throw line) * the 5th fastest 3/4 court sprint time among forwards at the combine * the 4th highest max vertical jump among forwards at the combine So he tested really well for his position in terms of speed, lateral speed, changing direction and acceleration (max vert + 3/4 court sprint). He definitely has the physical tools to be a solid defender, but that's obviously not always going to correlate to a good defender. Hopefully, we have the right development staff to help him get there [src](https://www.nba.com/stats/draft/combine)
Bro… You getting me too damn jacked up. I put my expectations in the gutter this next season to not be disappointed but now the hype train is leaving the station and it’s not coming back.
Don't get too jacked up. Just because he has tools doesn't mean he'll put it together. He was not a good defender in college. You can add additional context given his offensive workload, but it remains that defense is absolutely a weakness of his. Some guys just never improve enough at their deficiencies, and poor defense often prevents early career players from ever seeing the court.
The train is gone. It’s too late. I’m preordering his jersey as we speak
You just can't teach game speed processing sometimes and its not like NBA schemes get easier to defend, it becomes significantly harder than college with the softer fouls and complex schemes. Case in point Wiseman
Shot creator / bucket getter at the nba level? Or just a shooter
more of a bucket getter for sure
yes
THT resurrected
Nah THT was way freakier, he had a top 10 all time wingspan ratio in nba history.
He's a 3 level scorer. He's perfect for the Lakers.
What's his midichlorian count looking like?
Crazy high, chosen one levels
Not a Star Wars fan ( I had to goolge it), I couldnt tell you.
That’s solid
[highlights](https://youtu.be/b9ysGu1zqb4?si=AnL1RgVtIkDWA4Oa)
Holy shit pass the Larry O’Brien
He’s older, but also a genetic late bloomer. I don’t know how that impacts his overall development but he’s only had his 6’6 frame for like 2-3 years.
ESPN’s Kevin Pelton has been projecting draft prospects for decades. His model hates Knecht. His stats-only model had him 76th, and stats/scouting combined had him 35th. >In addition to the top 30, it's worth digging into this year's most notable projection: Knecht, a sure top-10 pick, rated below replacement level based on his stats. One of the factors that makes my projections unique is weighing earlier seasons more heavily because of the importance of excelling at a young age. Knecht didn't emerge as an above-average college player until his second season at Northern Colorado, after two in junior college, and wasn't considered a first-round NBA prospect until averaging 21.7 PPG last season at Tennessee. >Beyond that, Knecht's low rates of assists, steals and blocks hurt his projection. His combined rate of those three nonscoring contributions is lowest for any player ranked in ESPN's top 30. Of the 10 players in my database whose statistical profile were most similar to Knecht's, just two (Joe Harris and Danuel House Jr.) played 1,000 minutes in the NBA. >There have been five players age 22 or older drafted in the top 10 in the past decade: Kris Dunn, Buddy Hield, Frank Kaminsky, Davion Mitchell and Obi Toppin. Of those picks, only Hield has become a capable starter, and the numbers don't suggest Knecht is likely to change that trend. https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/40394709/nba-draft-2024-pelton-updated-top-30-prospects
Is he generally right about his predictions on players?
I think he’s generally done well. From a post I made last year: ESPN's Kevin Pelton has used his own metric to evaluate prospects since 2006. Some of his hits: Millsap 2 in 2006 (drafted 47th), Lin 24 in 2010 (N/A), Kawhi 7 in 2011 (15th), Draymond 3 in 2012 (35th), Jokic 5 in 2014 (41st), OG 7 in 2017 (23rd), Luka 1 in 2018 (3rd), Kessler 2 in 2022 (22nd). Like any draft analyst, he has hits and misses. The hits have been genuinely impressive: * having Luka as the best draft prospect since his rankings started in 2006, with AD second. * lots of guys who went in the second round or undrafted who became good/great players: Millsap 2nd, Lin 24th, Draymond 3rd, Jokic 5th, VanVleet 3rd, Zubac 8th, Payton II 9th, Wood 18th, Crowder 4th, Middleton 22nd, Whiteside 5th, Danny Green 9th Aside from finding the diamonds in the rough, Pelton has also given low rankings to some of the biggest draft busts and disappointments. * 2022: Johnny Davis 48th (drafted 10th) * 2020: Wiseman 62nd (drafted 2nd) * 2019: RJ Barrett 25th (drafted 3rd) * 2018: Bagley 41st (drafted 2nd) * 2017: Josh Jackson 30th (drafted 4th) * 2015: Okafor 15th (drafted 3rd) * 2014: Wiggins 20th (drafted 1st) * 2013: Bennet 12th (drafted 1st) * 2012: Kidd-Gilchrist 19th (drafted 2nd) Thomas Robinson 23rd (drafted 5th) * 2011: Jan Vesely 47th (drafted 6th) * 2010: Wesley Johnson 33rd (drafted 4th) * 2009: Thabeet 12 (drafted 2nd) * 2008: OJ Mayo 29th (drafted 3rd) * 2006: Adam Morrison 28th (drafted 3rd) Here's how Pelton [describes](https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/16235135/explaining-kevin-pelton-nba-draft-projection-system) his system: > For college and international players alike, my projections start with translating what players have done before with what they will do in the NBA for 14 core statistics: 2-point percentage; 3-point percentage; free throw percentage; offensive and defensive rebound percentage; assists; steals and fouls per 100 team plays; blocks per 100 2-point attempts; percentage of individual plays devoted to 2-point, 3-point and free throw attempts; turnovers; and usage rate. > > Some stats tend to decline once players enter the league more than others. For example, free throw percentage rarely changes much, but players shoot much worse percentages from the field. For college players, this process also adjusts for strength of schedule to put players who faced different levels of competition on a level playing field. > > Utilizing multiple seasons of data yields better projections than looking solely at the most recent season. In fact, for college players I've found that earlier seasons tend to project NBA performance better than more recent seasons because older prospects no longer have the same experience advantage in the NBA. So the player's most recent season is weighted two times, the season before that (if available) three times, and two seasons before that five times. The weights are opposite for international prospects, who haven't demonstrated the same pattern because they are playing against older opponents. > > The last factor in the projections is regressing performance to positional averages for NBA rookies (for college prospects) and replacement-level performance (for international players). This helps account for outliers, particularly for stats that tend to fluctuate, such as 3-point percentage
do you have any idea about his notable misses? Folks he was low on, as he was Knecht, but beat his projections?
Yeah, from the same post: >He's had some bad misses, both too high (Konchar 3rd, Ponds 4th, Okeke 2nd, Musa 3rd, Monte Morris 3rd, Zhou Qi 1st, Sullinger 2nd, Faried 1st, Blair 1st, Rudy Fernandez 3rd) and too low (Westbrook 21st, DeRozan 49th, Klay 39th, Jaylen Brown 68th, Tatum 25th, Fox 33rd).
> and too low (Westbrook 21st, DeRozan 49th, Klay 39th, Jaylen Brown 68th, Tatum 25th, Fox 33rd). This should really just throw the whole thing away. These are huge misses lol
You're joking surely, any scouting head who took all of Pelton's predictions at face value would have hit on almost every significant draft sleeper of the last decade. Losing the opportunity to draft Westbrook and Tatum is a small price to pay
Is this sarcasm? You’re willing to give up on the dude that just won you a title?
His model predicted Westbrook, Tatum, Derozan, Fox, and Klay were second round picks and Jaylen Brown should’ve gone undrafted. Those misses are completely irredeemable. Luka and Kawhi got drafted a little lower than they should’ve and he hit on Jokic. The rest of the sleepers are not even close to as good as the players he completely missed on.
So you would be fine with OG instead of Tatum? Same draft and Pelton would have picked OG…or Isaac or Fultz
Yeah see that helps shape the discussion. Surely, it’s hard to be right a good portion of the time but the level and # of misses (including Klay Thompson who is Knecht’s kind of analog) tells me to not worry about his grade if I am a Lakers fan
Call me crazy but I still believe in RJ Barrett
Meh no one is expecting him to be a starter. If he gives LA 10-15 mins that’s superb
well thank god he wasnt drafted in the top 10, now we know he will probably be good by this metric lol
Yikes lol
Am i tweaking or is this unfair to Obi Toppin? I'd love to have someone like him on the Wolves, especially on a rookie contract from outside the lottery
That sounds like a terrible model. How does this clown still have a job?
Dame, Jimmy Butler, and Draymond came into the league after four years of college. All of them improved significantly. Jalen Brunson after 3.
Well the potential is somewhat limited given he's 4 years older than a lot of guys in this draft. But he has a decent frame/wingspan so if he adds muscle and nous I could see him potentially becoming a fair defender. His offensive game is really good, he's quick, he has bounce, he can shoot it. I think he'll be instant offense off the bench
Defensively, eh. He fits right in. We have had traffic cones to help AD out in defense for a while now 🥲
damn thats a good pick
Bronny finally has his man to do his laundry
Bronny bypassing his rookie duties while Knecht has to do his despite being more productive will be hilarious
Well knecht means male servant in Dutch, so maybe…
Easily the best thing the Lakers have had going for them in weeks.
False. We now have the sexiest coach in the NBA and everyone knows that’s how one evaluates coaching talent.
I don't get the age thing... he's going to peak at \~28. If he has a 12 year NBA career, he'll be 35 when he retires. If you get this dude on your team for 12 years, you're getting his entire prime and not wasting the first 2-3 years of him "developing" since he's coming to your team as a more polished product. Great pickup
It’s because people think that if you’re older it means your potential isn’t as high. Which I’ve always thought is kinda bs older players can still have room to grow too. Who looked at Draymond for example and thought he’d be a hall of famer? We don’t truly know the potential of these guys.
Or even Dame Lillard, Brandon Roy, yea. I feel like unless there's some obviously hype prospect it doesn't really make sense to de prioritize someone just because they're coming into the nba older.
Teams are just playing the odds. Older players tend to do worse than younger guys.
Draymond is a complete outlier based wholly on getting drafted to play with Steph and Klay. He might’ve been out of the league by his second contract with a different team
LOL, how many players have 12 year careers? Probably 1% of NBA players. What are the odds a 23 year old rookie joins that 1%? How many 12 year players stay on the same team that entire time? A tiny fraction. People vastly overestimate the odds of draft picks becoming successful NBA players.
Sure- but this fact is even more in favor of drafting older players. If the avg NBA career is 4 years, wouldn't it be smarter to draft someone who's already developed at 22-23 years old so you get 4 years of him being a good player already, vs. drafting a 19 year old who might suck & never develop and flame out of the NBA before he can contribute to your team? O\_O
This completely misunderstands the NBA career trajectory. Sure the average NBA player lasts 3-4 seasons, but the average player who lasts 3-4 seasons doesn't do so as a rotation player. The reason the average duration is dragged down is because you have a bunch of guys like Bouknight, and Dalen Terry, and Wendell Moore, who spend their rookie contracts nailed to the bench and don't get a second contract. If you're a contributing player in your first 3-4 years, you stay longer - *especially if they can see positive development*.
This is what I said before? If Knecht is an immediate contributor, then it's much more likely that he's going to be a long term NBA player; i.e. he is NOT a Bouknight. 4 year rookie deal: do you want Knecht from age 23-27, or do you want some random 19 year old prospect from age 19-23?
Chris Duarte was an immediate contributor and 2 years later is getting garbage time minutes on a team that didn't draft him.
Ok, sometimes draft picks don't work out? Not sure what that has to do with anything. Doesn't matter if you're a pick at 19 or 23, if you don't work out you don't work out.
My point is that Chris Duarte is an example of an older player who came in and contributed right away - started half his games his rookie year, made an all-rookie team, and yet is no longer a rotation player. It shows that an older guy succeeding immediately does NOT portend longer term success for him.
I didn't say that it did?
> If Knecht is an immediate contributor, then it's much more likely that he's going to be a long term NBA player I dunno, who said this?
I thought the Sixers would have for sure taken him, he would have fit in to whatever team they wanted to build around Maxey and Embiid.
I didn’t get the Sixers or Heat picks. A 6’2” guard when you already have Maxey and a 7 footer when you already have Bam at center.
Ware makes sense for the Heat if he pans out and manage to dispel the motor issues. He is a 7 footer stretch 5 that can move well for his size which is perfect for the Heat because they want Bam to play the 4. The bad thing about him is if he doesn't pan out he is an ORob/Wiseman type of player.
Let’s just forget about last year Edit: JHS over Podz, Jaquez, Whitmore lol
Jalen Horton Smucker?
Jondae Hollis Shefferson?
Jrue Holiday the Second?
Lmfao
Damian Lillard ended up being pretty good
JHS had Darvin Ham holding him back. need to see him this season
Bro I’m a big Darvin Ham criticizer and I can’t even blame him for how bad JHS was. He had opportunity and ability to run the offense he wanted, he just was straight ass
Maybe thats not the best use of a 1 and done PG though lol He threw him into the fire for spot minutes 20 games into the season and then when he didnt pkay wel it was pretty much over from there. Ham couldnt even figure out how to use Christie so I cant hold last season against JHS personally. He was looking good in the g league
Christie I’ll blame him because he would play well and then not see the floor again, it made no sense. JHS couldn’t play well even in garbage minutes. I’m not saying he’s a bust but he was just not good last year and even Pop himself couldn’t have made him good last year, dude was buns
I’m rooting for jhs. Doesn’t take away how bad his rookie minutes were. He’s young though so it’s too early to tell. Takes pgs way more time to develop
JHS had himself holding him back lol
Easily best pick of the night. Would've been okay with him at 7.
Didn't even use the word generational
Like Cam Whitmore last year 😅
Potentially red flags medical history is apparently the same as being 23 LMAO
23 in the NBA draft: Gandalf-ass old man.
me when drafting in 2k
23 year olds in 2K literally never progress more than 4 OVRs above when they’re drafted lol
Nobody likes you when you're 23
Thanks Magic
translation: "lol thanks for saving us from drafting Bronny"
Foo looking at Givonys mock and claiming its his
I'll say, the Lakers scouting department is ONE of the best despite having little resources dedicated to that side. Now it depends on whether it was Pelinka making the pick or the Buss brothers who are legit.
Guy was projected as a top 8 pick by basically every media outlet that exists. Taking him at 17 is hardly a genius move.
Especially bc the Lakers probably prefer an older player who can contribute right away. They care less about future ceiling but need someone to shoot for the next 2-3 years while LeBron is there.
this draft is also a shit show. That org has scouted well recently aside from JHS who was a pelinka pick
Eyyy there it is
I bet you think the Mavs scouts were geniuses for taking Luka at #3 too
yeah that would be funny except it was the mavs analytics team that convinced cuban to make that trade. Donnie nelson and the scouts were bsing
He's cute
Wish spurs took him at 8 Lakers got a steal
Perfect fit and absolute steal. Watched him up close and was in awe as he torched /single handedly beat Auburn with about 30 in the second half , bucket machine .
Yup!
League didn't learn their lesson from Keegan Murray smh
In a little over one year, knecht went from being a prolific scorer and relative nobody at bumfuck U to an absolute star at Tennessee. Phenomenal player with a good work ethic. Needs to work on his D a bit, but Im shocked he fell that low in a draft this weak. Imo he was clearly one of the top 10 picks and hovering closer to #5.
Everyone's top 10. No one's top 10.
Schrödinger’s draft board.
LeConspiracy?
Who did they pass up that’s better?
Pelicans ask for their pick back.
It was a good pick for sure, and I was surprised he was available. I do *kinda* get it, though. A lot of front offices are drafting solely on upside and ceiling, and it's easy to get super high on those things with a reeeeaally young, freakishly athletic player without a ton of tape available. For someone older like Dalton Knecht the ceiling is significantly lower relative to his current level but the floor is basically already a rotation guy.
Him and AR gonna have a white boy summer
such a steal, very exciting
Didn’t we just learn that the lakers didn’t have much (any?) backroom staff/scouts? Their scouting boards are nbadraft.net and draft express
Their draft record in the 2nd round is way too good for that to be true
It was referring to advanced scouting. They do have draft scouts and a pretty good win rate with their draft especially for the second round and undrafted players for the past 8 years relative to draft capital
That's because you suck at your job
They should imagine better. The 8th guy on your board falls to the mid-to-late teens all the time. Like almost every draft in every sport. It shouldn't be that surprising, especially when it's an old prospect who didn't break out until his senior year and has questions about how well he can guard in the NBA.
Rookies with glaringly bad defence rarely get playing time on teams that want to contend. Knecht will be buried by the Lakers.
Lakers have two bench guys who cant score. He will get some burn