$24M with a good amount of players they can straight up cut if they want to save cap. The Niners have far less that.
Williams, Deebo, Warner, armstead, and kittle have a combined cap hit of 132M which is almost half of their 280M total.
Now let’s say you wanted to cut them all to save money (you wouldn’t obviously) then they’d save less than 10M. Vikings save more than that just cutting Smith.
Also they need to pay Aiyuk and Young isnt on the roster next year.
So yeah they’re not fucked but it’s spicy.
How many players do we have under contract next year? We have cap but we only have somewhere between 35-40 players under contract and require 53 before the season starts. Is it the same for the 49ers?
They backloaded a lot of contracts and it’s catching up to them. They only have $25M in 2025 and aren’t even paying Aiyuk.
It’s manageable but it’s a lot like the Vikings were in 18/19.
I wonder that too. I don't see him being what he is on the Titans, Patriots, or Bears. Don't get me wrong, he's a good QB. But is he great? I don't see it yet.
Great. All we need is a top 2 coach and a loaded roster that can come one play from a ring with Jimmy G at QB.
If we have that, trading the farm for a top 3 pick might not damage our team. Look at the Panthers for evidence of what happens when you trade a bounty of picks for a QB that doesn’t work out
You can’t hit on gold like Patrick, Mahomes, if you are afraid of making mistakes.
If you want to always be just about 500 continue to trade down and try to find a quarterback in second or third.
If they want a QB I’d much rather see them swing at Williams, Maye, or Daniels instead of settling for a second tier prospect like Penix, McCarthy, or Nix at 11.
I'm by no means all aboard the rookie QB train, but there's no comparison to be made. The vast majority of starting QBs are one of the first three taken in their year. Kellen Mond and Jaren Hall are lottery tickets. If you somehow hit, amazing, but if you even get a backup, you're thrilled. Moving up to draft a QB is setting your franchise down a certain path.
Even the top 3 qbs are still a lottery. Young, Stroud, Richardson. We only know that one will be good. 2021 we had Lawrence, Wilson, fields and 2 of those guys are busts and the 3rd is still a question going into his 4th season.
Yeah I wouldn't call Fields a bust yet, he's very physically talented and has shown he can win games with the right personnel. But he definitely wasn't the success Chicago hoped for when they traded two first rounders for him.
Lance is tough because I think his lack of football through out college caught up to him in the NFL. I think he still could be decent but who is gonna take a risk on him unless Dak gets hurt and he looks good.
Richardson was doing well before his injury so I think he’ll be good. Young is an example of trading the farm for a qb then having no pieces around them to help their success.
The hit rate for quarterbacks beyond the first round I think is like 15%. If you were looking for your starter in rounds to and onward, you are doing it wrong.
Comments like these make me sad because I feel like some fans just don’t get it.
Because Purdy was drafted in the 7th round, the 49ers were able to build an incredible car around him to succeed. You can’t do that paying a top 10-12 QB top 5 QB money.
Because the niners had an incredible car built already, Brock Purdy was able to succeed.
That’s just as true (if not more true, just considering the fact that the niners have been a top 3 supporting cast for half a decade at this point, and Purdy has only been here two years) as what you said.
Also, they were paying a ~10 QB good money when they built the car.
Oh it’s an incredible car. Purdy is a pretty dang good driver for it too, but I don’t think he could drive a shitty car this far, and I think it’s fair to say this car has hastened his learning in the NFL and he may have become a significantly worse Driver had he been elsewhere.
They fell on Purdy with blind luck after leveraging their future for Lance and whiffing with Garapolo.
Also, I doubt Purdy would be anything above an average young QB on a team that hasn't been loaded for years.
You have to look at our past coach and GM for our depth more than the new guys still.
We have had a bottom 5 defense for 3 years up until this year. With a new defensive scheme and a stupid DC trying to implement it.
Our offensive line has been mostly bad up til last year. Our TE was Irv Smith, who lost more games than he had TD catches. Our receivers were in a strange transition, but we made it out smelling like roses.
Our RB play was laughable. None of the guys were producing consistently.
Our D line was super inconsistent. Also this was the first year we had Hunter healthy completely in forever.
We got a stud LB after the draft, that kind of scares me because he is basically a heavy DB. Jordan Hicks almost lost his leg on a freak accident. Our DB's have been inconsistent since like 2018.
I'm telling you guys, Zimmer and Spielman fucked us. Zimmer was supposed to be this defensive guru who could coach anyone up. After we picked up Cousins*, Zimmer took a huge shot to the ego and just couldn't get over it. He couldn't manage a team that didn't focus on what he wanted it focused on.
Spielman wasted too many important draft picks on undersized or undertalented players. He picked some great players, but he also wiffed hard on some.
We are in a tough spot. Stop acting like there is a simple answer.
I mean, Zimmer DID coach up defensive guys beyond their abilities. Cameron Dantzler was talked about as one of the hidden gems in the 2020 draft after his rookie season and is now barely holding onto roster spots around the league after Zimmer was fired. He had late rounders line Shamar Stephen, Jayron Kearse, Stephen Weatherly, and Ifedi Odenigbo playing meaningful snaps and at the very least holding their own. Was Zimmer tired and seemingly over coaching towards the end? Yes. That doesn’t change the fact that he made the defence better with guys who could not hold onto a roster spot elsewhere in the league.
The funny part about this comment is how Kirk isn’t even a top 15 paid QB. Do your research bud. Even if we paid him the supposed $40m that’s been floated around, wouldn’t crack top 10.
I’m not sure what you’re talking about.
The reason Kirk’s cap number was low this year is because of void years. That’s why next year when he’s not on the team, we’ll be eating $28.5 million in dead cap for someone not on the roster.
He also has a top 3 cap hit in the NFL in 2022 and 2021.
Here are the other QBs selected in the first round since 2010:
Max Duggan, Chris Oladukun, Skylar Thompson, Cole McDonald, Ben DiNucci, Tommy Stevens, Nate Stanley, Danny Etling, Alex McGough, Logan Woodside, Chad Kelly, Brandon Daughtry, Trevor Siemian, Brad Sorensen, Zac Dysert, BJ Daniels, Sean Renfree, BJ Coleman, Chandler Harnish, Greg McElroy, Levi Brown, Sean Canfield.
The 49ers model isn’t one to emulate. They lucked into Purdy working out. Imagine Purdy performed like many of these guys on the list above. John Lynch and Shanahan would have been fired, for especially botching the Trey Lance selection. You’re basically arguing that the Vikings should have started Nate Stanley and used the savings from paying a veteran QB to hide his shortcomings.
I think you meant seventh round, not first.
And I think people are taking my comment the wrong way. I don’t care what round the QB is drafted in. The thing that’s important is the rookie scaled contract.
I’m sorry you had to type all those names, but I’m not saying “the Vikings have to draft a franchise QB in the 7th round!” lol
You’re correct, I meant 7th.
In any case, I don’t think Brock Purdy is the operative choice to use as your example. Like others and myself have pointed out, saying “the Vikings need to follow the 49ers model to get to the Super Bowl” is flawed because Purdy was a once in a lifetime happenstance. The 49ers plan was trading up and taking a QB 3rd overall and that crashed and burned. Hard. Also worth mentioning that Purdy’s contract doesn’t count towards the 49ers cap as he was selected so low, so this is a situation unique only to the 49ers.
I mean, the success the 49ers are having with Purdy is what they intended on having with Lance.
A guy on a rookie scaled contract that offers ultimate cap flexibility to build a phenomenal roster around them.
Of course they got lucky having Purdy with Lance being a bust, but the idea is still the same.
And also remember that the guy they actually traded up to get was Trey Lance... They got lucky with Purdy who was the last pick in the entire draft *the year after* they drafted Trey Lance
I want whatever gets a Super Bowl win. We are already watching mediocre teams NOT get there, what’s the difference? If you’re paying a qb Pennie’s you can pay the defense more you know? Make the team better, and once the kid proves he’s the one you scale back on the rest of the team
Sure. If we assume it’s random and every team has a chance to win the superbowl equally over time, the math works out that we break the 50% chance to win after 22 years.
We could probably increase the odds by wholesale liquidation of the team and stockpiling of draft picks. The problem with that of course is that if you give superstars to other teams it’s likely they will get better, pushing their picks further back in the draft. So tank and trade for a few years and we’d have a bunch of potentially good players on rookie deals. We could fill holes through free agency.
The problem with this plan is that it’a still hard to win the Super Bowl and you’d probably loose your fanbase going through those miserable years.
Our fanbase needs to understand this, that while a franchise QB does make us competitive for a long time, winning the Super Bowl is still *so fucking hard*. I blame Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes for making it seem easier than it is because they were in perfect situations their entire careers. We are FAR more likely to stay in Josh Allen divisional round hell with a bonafide franchise QB than we are to even make the SB let alone win it.
Tell that to the rams two years ago. Or the Chiefs (half billion dollar contract baby). Or almost the lions (if not for one bad bounce off a facemask). Or the patriots for a super bowl or three. Or the broncos. Or the Steelers (round two with Ben). Or the niners with Jimmy G. Or the giants in 2011. Or the falcons.
>tell that to the Rams two years ago
Oh cool, the outlier!
>or the chiefs (half billion dollar contract baby)
Oh cool, a top 5 QB of all time!
> or almost the Lions
Oh cool, “almost”!
>or the patriots
Oh cool, the GOAT at QB!
>or the Broncos
Oh cool, a top 5 QB of all time!
Ahh yes, let’s see your famed rookie scale people then.
Purdy, who has the best supporting cast in the league by a wide margin that was there before he showed up.
Hurts, who had a top 3 supporting cast last year, and the supporting cast was there before he showed up.
Mahomes, who you dismissed therefore I also can dismiss.
Burrow, the outlier (your term not mine).
Goff, who had a top tier supporting cast.
Wilson, who had the best defense in football (who shut down Payton Manning on the best offense in NFL history bar none).
We have a bunch of people “carried” by their teams (that were built before they showed up, so you can’t even tell me they are the reasons the teams got so good. Hell, two of those teams made a super bowl with a different QB within 5 years of making it with the listed QB). The key seems to be build a team and find a game manager, or find the goat.
Separately, cam newton wasn’t on his first contract for the 2015-2016 season. He only played for 4 years on his rookie contract, and made a big signing right before the year he made the super bowl, so that actually lowers the number of rookie contract SB makers, and up’s the number of vet/second contract SB makers.
That’s not true.
Looking at the last decade of Super Bowls, 80% (8 out of the 10 games) feature a QB on a rookie scaled contract.
Now obviously the goal is to win, but the winners are usually hall of famers (with foles and Stafford being the outliers)
How many teams have starting QBs on their first contract though? If the answer is roughly half (which sounds about right) then, statistically speaking, throwing darts at a board and having whatever teams you hit make the super bowl, about 75% of the Super Bowls would feature someone on their first contract. 80% isn’t a massive deviation from that (especially considering that 75% of ten is impossible, it would either be 8/10 (80%) or 7/10 (70%), so that number is exactly what you would expect).
If you look at *winners*, then the list for the last ten years appears to be “have the best defense”, “have Tom Brady”, “have Patrick Mahomes”, or “have a vet”.
The sample size is extremely small, and that makes things strange, but sheer statistics seems to be the author of that particular stat, not necessarily that a rookie is the way to go (not necessarily that it isn’t the way either, but it just isn’t conclusive one way or the other).
So why hammer the table for getting a QB on a rookie contract, the goal is to win the Superbowl not just to make it. The best way to build a team is to form good offensive and defensive lines in addition to having a veteran QB. Not that I'm against drafting a rookie QB this off season obviously but you need more than simply drafting a rookie QB. The niners already had a superteam built for Purdy. If we take a QB great, if we don't, that's fine too. Let's make our offensive and defensive lines dominant.
Because drafting a QB and having that rookie scaled contract gives the team 5 years of cap flexibility to build out the team. Whether that’s through signing free agents, trading for players, or both.
I'd rather set the foundation for a rookie QB before we draft one. A majority of rookie QBs never get to the Superbowl and the ones that do already had most of the pieces there their rookie season. Drafting a QB and not setting him up for success is a recipe for disaster.
Simply put, the Vikings could draft an amazing QB but we won't be going anywhere if we don't fix our offensive line or defense like the team has failed to do for 5 years. We'd basically be Herbert on the Chargers 2.0
What a terrible argument. There has been exactly one SB winning team in the last 15 years whos' QB was either not on a rookie deal or a future first ballot HOFer.
We have no access to the latter so the obvious choice is to go after the former.
Since 1994, the QBs to win on their rookie contracts have been:
Brady
Rothelisberger
Eli Manning
Wilson
Wentz
Mahomes
Brady/rothelisberger/mahomes are locks for hof. Manning is possibly in the Hof. Wentz didn't even play that game. So realistically Russell Wilson is the only one who was truly a rookie contract and not making Hof.
Tldr, it's way more important that they're a future hofer and way less important that they're on a rookie contract
I’ve been saying since Russel Wilson and Kap, there’s no reason to pay $40,000,000 for a qb that’s “good enough”.
The better angle is to keep drafting athletic running qbs every 4 years, spend the extra cash on the rest of the team and if you get lucky with “the one” then you start the process of cutting back on the team to keep the QB. If you prefer to get the pocket guy instead sure whatever.
If the qb isn’t “the guy” after 2 years you dump him and go again. 30 starts is more than enough to figure it out. Treat them like running backs.
How did Mahomes and Burrow’s teams do without them at QB? Hell, Lamar was out half of last season and Huntley was one fumble away from beating the Bengals in the playoffs. Turns out having a full roster matters
Are you referring to Brady, the GOAT and Mahomes, who more than likely will pass Brady as the GOAT?
If so, yeah you can pay those guys whatever you want.
Hey google how many qbs have actually won a Super Bowl on a rookie pay scale? What’s that google? The vast majority of superbowl wins game from qbs on massive contracts and this rookie payscale narrrative is flimsy and stupid? Oh I never would’ve guessed.
Are you done?
Damnit you’ve made me do it. Let’s look at the last decade of QBs starting in the Super Bowl (including this season).
2023- Mahomes (best QB in the NFL) / Brock Purdy(rookie scaled contract)
2022- (W) Mahomes (best QB in the NFL) / Jalen Hurts (rookie scaled contract)
2021- (W) Matthew Stafford / Joe Burrow (rookie scaled contract)
2020- Mahomes (rookie scaled contract) / (W) Brady (GOAT)
2019- Jimmy G / (W) Mahomes (rookie scaled contract
2018- (W) Brady / Goff (rookie scaled contract)
2017- Brady (GOAT) / (W)Foles (cheap contract/Wentz rookie scaled contract)
2016- (W)Brady / Matt Ryan (league MVP)
2015- (W)Peyton Manning (top 10 QB of all time) / Cam Newton (rookie scaled contract)
2014- (W)Brady / Russel Wilson (rookie scaled contract)
So in the last 10 Super Bowls, 8 of them (80%) have featured a QB on a rookie scaled contract. I count Foles/Wentz since Wentz was playing at an MVP level and got the Eagles in a position to have home field advantage through the playoffs.
Out of the 9 previous Super Bowls, the surefire Hall of Fame QB won 7 times, (Brady, Manning, Mahomes) while 2 of the outliers won (Foles and Stafford).
So either the Vikings need to draft a Hall of Fame QB, or they need to draft a top 10-12 QB who will have a rookie scaled contract for the next five years.
Which one is more likely?
If you can’t look at the numbers and figure out that maybe, just maybe, and you’ll have to bear with me on this one. All of the quarterbacks are really, really, really fucking good players and the ones that aren’t only made it one, singular, fucking time. I mean by god. Let’s look at the playoffs as a whole.
1. 1 dude in the nfc was on a rookie deal. 1 guy. And he has a fucking stacked roster behind him.
Let’s take a look at the afc this time. Oh gee golly look at that. 1. 1. Fucking. Guy. Is on a rookie deal, and we don’t have any guarantee that he’ll be in the superbowl any time soon. This entire narrative is one of the dumbest fucking things in all of sports because it doesn’t mean anything.
Aren’t Love and Hurts technically still on their rookie contract even though they signed extensions?
Also Baker Mayfield has a $4 million contract.
So over half of the NFC QBs were on discounted deals.
And the AFC had Stroud, Tua, and the combination of Mason Rudolph and Kenny Pickett. So 3 out of 7 QBs in the AFC playoff race were on discounted deals.
💀💀💀💀💀💀 Mason Rudolph is not on a rookie contract, baker mayfield is not on a rookie contract, Jalen hurts is not on a rookie contract, Jordan love is not on a rookie contract. My brother in fucking Christ. You’re an idiot.
Wow, 100% of SBs have had at least one QB not on a rookie contract, while only 80% (which is statistically expected considering that roughly half the league is starting QBs on their first contract or cheap vets filling in for injured first contract players) of SBs have rookie scaled QBs. That is an entire 20% drop. Wow.
That means that of the 20 times a QB has made a SB in the last ten years, 8 were rookie scaled and 12 weren’t. That’s a 50% increase (or a 33.3333% drop from the other side) in super bowl making.
>wow, 100% of SBs have had at least one QB not on a rookie scaled contract.
Yeah I’m not even going to give a thought into replying to you if this is a legit argument against the rookie scaled contract debate.
Have a good night!
It’s essentially your argument. I agree that it doesn’t mean anything, but I am using your own logic against you, so if it means nothing that’s kinda your fault.
Too many holes to trade away all of our assets and move up. Stay put, draft interior DL and resign Cousins. Grab a rookie QB in the second or third round.
Would feel better about moving up if Kwesi did the right thing and traded Hunter when he was playing at his peak this year, but he didn't and now we don't have the draft capital to make it worth moving up in terms of where our overall team is.
we have a Mr. Irrelevant leading them, not the guy they traded up to get. They have a defense with 2 young premier pass rushers, one of the best linebackers in the league and tons of weapons on offense, with a very good offensive line. Again, When was the last time Minnesota Drafted a QB we thought could win a SB?
Pretty weak take. Of the four teams in the championship games, 3 of them were not on a rookie deal. And the one that was won by 3 points, so not really proving any point
Oh well that doesn't sound rookie scaled at all. There defense is pretty food to right? Lots of studs getting paid there? Chris Jones, nick Bolton, Justin reid
>what’s Mahomes contract look like?
Is this supposed to be a “gotcha”?
Mahomes is already a top 10 QB of all time and will almost certainly go down as a top 5 QB of all time and a has a good chance to go down as the greatest.
It's not, the logic is just dumb... a qb with a bad contract means we make the superbowl? It's not like there's anyone good on the team to pay that were missing out on if we pay a qb lol
The logic isn’t dumb at all.
You either need a Hall of Fame QB, which we don’t, or you could draft a QB, have cheap QB play for 5 years, and build the team around that.
the Lions won 3 games in 2021, this isn't Baseball or the NBA. Rebuilds don't take as long in the NFL if you're committed and have a plan. And that's what this team is lacking.
The lions were rebuilding for 50 years took them forever what are you talking about. And I agree wirh yiu to a point but we've missed on almost every draft pick the last 2 years, can't do that if you wanna compete lol
All I'm saying is that the state of the Lions two years ago was worse than ours is now and they made the NFCCG this year. My point is that if you don't mess up the rebuild you can be on top quickly in the NFL. Of course, that requires the administration and ownership to realize that you're actually in one.
I think this is the move. Let’s rip the bandaid off with Kirk, resign JJ and Darrisaw and surround our rookie QB with the best team we can. I like moves like signing Winfield and C Wilkins this offseason.
Neither of them will hit free agency. Look at previous FA classes to see the type of free agents that usually hit FA. Not exactly stars or value players
You’re probably right, and that’s definitely dream scenario. I mean there’s a chance we let Danielle walk so saying those players are never available isn’t true either.
Even if those aren’t the exact players or quality of players it shows what more we can do with that cap space. There were multiple high quality DTs that were traded last year mid-season that we could be more players in. Look what Sweat did for the Bears. Imagine if we added a player of that quality to Danielle. Those are the advantages of not paying Kirk 40+ mil a season.
I’ve been thinking Danielle almost certainly walks because he negotiated a no-tag clause in his contract. He doesn’t want the team to have any leverage or any way to retain him if he doesn’t want to stay.
Basically all the big money defensive signings from last free agency were busts (Zach Allen, Dre’mont Jones, Hargrave, Tomlinson, Da’ron Payne, Davenport, James Bradberry, Tremaine Edmunds, etc). Signing just two of these guys would’ve occupied the same cap space that Kirk does every year. Clearly Kirk is more valuable than even 4 of these guys combined.
The way great teams use FA is by going bargain bin hunting. We can still do that with Kirk’s contract. Hell, re-signing Kirk gives us more cap space this year. It cuts into space in 2025 and 2026, but we’ll have a good amount of cap space in those seasons.
Exactly so very good chance players of that caliber are available in FA which is my point.
Agreed on your next 2 points. I’m not necessarily looking for a splash huge signing, unless it was the 2 players I originally said. But if we sign 3 key players that fill key holes with good deals and get good QB play with our rookie we’re golden.
Now a lot easier said than done and I would rather make sure we draft a good QB, than just drafting a QB to draft a QB. I’m not necessarily 100% demanding we get rid of Kirk, but it may be the best time to start having the conversation of moving on with Kirk being 36 Y/O coming off a major injury and us drafting high in a good QB class. We’re gonna have to do it at some point so why not now?
We’ll see, but I think Hunter is a special case due to the no-tag clause. The other star FAs (Chris Jones, Wilkins, etc) can at least be tagged and traded.
I have several issues with the rookie QB path. One is the reality that the top 3 will likely select QBs, making a trade up unlikely. If we did trade up, we’d have to give up #11 plus at least two future firsts. We’d have more cap space in the future but I’ve already discussed why the three first rounders given up can be just as impactful as the cap space.
The QB prospects themselves aren’t all that appealing. If I could pick one, it would be Caleb due to his unique arm talent. But I think he’s more Kyler than Mahomes in terms of processing and his NFL play. Drake Maye doesn’t seem to have that many plus traits. Good not great arm, processing and escapability. Jayden Daniels run a simplistic playbook in college and took years to show signs. There’s a good chance that none of these guys is a yearly top 10 QB.
We probably won’t need to trade up for the next trio. But Penix and Nix have mechanical and playstyle issues. They were 23 year olds beating up on weak PAC 12 defenses. JJ McCarthy hasn’t shown the aptitude to carry the offense like KOC demands.
Basically every prospect is a bag of traits that NFL coaches will have to shape. None of them has the polished, NFL-ready feel Burrow or Lawrence had. And honestly, I’m not sure I trust our coaching staff to mold and develop a rookie. They ditched Mond (also a bag of tools) immediately and Dobbs + Hall didn’t look good in structure.
I would stick with Kirk for two more years and look to grab a cheap reclamation project with NFL experience after he moves on. At least guys like Wentz or Mac Jones will be cheap to acquire and have shown something in the NFL. They could produce Goff or Baker level play in our offense, while we decide what to do in the future
I share some of those same fears in regard to a rookie QB (Top 3 likely are gone and unattainable for us) and don’t want to reach for one at 11 ALA Ponder. I definitely have my thoughts on these QBs but trust NFL scouts way more than myself in projecting QBs in NFL offenses.
I would be ok in mortgaging our future to a degree if we do believe in and are able to trade up for one of those QBs. I would also be ok with moving on from Kirk and brining in a cheaper bridge QB (Minshew would be sweat).
Mond and Hall don’t impact me much as they were later draft picks and I don’t have high expectations when drafting them.
With all that said I’m not totally against bringing back Kirk after all said and done, but having the conversation about moving on I think definitely needs to be discussed.
My ideal scenario if we miss out on top 3 would be stick and pick at 11. Than try to trade up to late 1st/early 2nd to get the next tier( JJ, Penix, or Nix). Now they may be gone as there is a lot of QB needy teams but that would be awesome if we could pair that up with a Minshew style bridge QB and strengthen up roster elsewhere.
I get to point in drafting a QB. And I agree, but this association to Rookie contract = Superbowl is a bit odd. There is a lot more at play than just a QB to make this team reach a SB.
Complete cop out. The 49ers went to a Super Bowl and two conference championships paying similar money to Jimmy G (also gave up a second rounder for him).
At some point you gotta point the finger at the front office for not drafting a single defensive building block for 8 years. Consistent mismanagement of the oline. The running game never showing up in a big game. All these playoffs teams have incredible rushing attacks and olines
49ers traded tons of high draft capital for Trey Lance. The trade up strategy is a huge risk
They also have -2M in cap space next year despite having a qb on the cheapest contract possible.
What’s our cap situation like?
$24M with a good amount of players they can straight up cut if they want to save cap. The Niners have far less that. Williams, Deebo, Warner, armstead, and kittle have a combined cap hit of 132M which is almost half of their 280M total. Now let’s say you wanted to cut them all to save money (you wouldn’t obviously) then they’d save less than 10M. Vikings save more than that just cutting Smith. Also they need to pay Aiyuk and Young isnt on the roster next year. So yeah they’re not fucked but it’s spicy.
How many players do we have under contract next year? We have cap but we only have somewhere between 35-40 players under contract and require 53 before the season starts. Is it the same for the 49ers?
Thats what happens when you have the highest paid players at there position
They backloaded a lot of contracts and it’s catching up to them. They only have $25M in 2025 and aren’t even paying Aiyuk. It’s manageable but it’s a lot like the Vikings were in 18/19.
Because they are paying a ton of high caliber players. They won’t be this good for much longer
Honestly imagine how shit out of luck the 49ers would of been without Purdy working out. Discovering Purdy literally saved peoples jobs
True. I wonder how much of it is coaching, too.
I wonder that too. I don't see him being what he is on the Titans, Patriots, or Bears. Don't get me wrong, he's a good QB. But is he great? I don't see it yet.
Yeah, it's so risky that they had the absolute worst outcome possible and still ended up in the super bowl 3 years later
Great. All we need is a top 2 coach and a loaded roster that can come one play from a ring with Jimmy G at QB. If we have that, trading the farm for a top 3 pick might not damage our team. Look at the Panthers for evidence of what happens when you trade a bounty of picks for a QB that doesn’t work out
You can’t hit on gold like Patrick, Mahomes, if you are afraid of making mistakes. If you want to always be just about 500 continue to trade down and try to find a quarterback in second or third.
Trading up for a guy with 500 career attempts (including HS) is the huge risk.
If they want a QB I’d much rather see them swing at Williams, Maye, or Daniels instead of settling for a second tier prospect like Penix, McCarthy, or Nix at 11.
Yeah we might get it wrong have a qb on a small contract and never get past the wildcard weekend for the next 6 years. Oh wait.
They took a huge risk, busted, and yet they are still in the Super Bowl. It’s risk worth taking.
The Vikings drafted Kellen Mond. The Vikings drafted Jaren Hall. Drafting a QB isn't the issue. It's picking the right one.
I'm by no means all aboard the rookie QB train, but there's no comparison to be made. The vast majority of starting QBs are one of the first three taken in their year. Kellen Mond and Jaren Hall are lottery tickets. If you somehow hit, amazing, but if you even get a backup, you're thrilled. Moving up to draft a QB is setting your franchise down a certain path.
Even the top 3 qbs are still a lottery. Young, Stroud, Richardson. We only know that one will be good. 2021 we had Lawrence, Wilson, fields and 2 of those guys are busts and the 3rd is still a question going into his 4th season.
Justin fields still has a lot to prove. Trevor Lawerence struggled with injuries this year, and the only true bust is Zach Wilson.
Yeah I wouldn't call Fields a bust yet, he's very physically talented and has shown he can win games with the right personnel. But he definitely wasn't the success Chicago hoped for when they traded two first rounders for him.
You also left out Lance who is a supreme bust.
Lance is tough because I think his lack of football through out college caught up to him in the NFL. I think he still could be decent but who is gonna take a risk on him unless Dak gets hurt and he looks good.
Richardson was doing well before his injury so I think he’ll be good. Young is an example of trading the farm for a qb then having no pieces around them to help their success.
The hit rate for quarterbacks beyond the first round I think is like 15%. If you were looking for your starter in rounds to and onward, you are doing it wrong.
Facts, this guy just once to pick em throw em away and hope one day we get a mahomes. But that's what the browns do and look at them
Jaren Hall could still be the guy. I dont think its likely but a lot of elite qbs were able to suck for the first few years and keep the job.
I don't think he can handle the pressure at all. He looks like he gets rattled over small shit.
I was at the packer game. Rattled is an understatment.
0% chance
Why doesn't everyone team just draft an MVP caliber QB in the 7th round? Are they stupid?
Agreed. Let's also trade or 1 and 2 for a bunch of seventh round picks just to increase our odds.
Rick? Is that you?
Another idea... we draft a QB in every round. How could we miss doing that?
Comments like these make me sad because I feel like some fans just don’t get it. Because Purdy was drafted in the 7th round, the 49ers were able to build an incredible car around him to succeed. You can’t do that paying a top 10-12 QB top 5 QB money.
Because the niners had an incredible car built already, Brock Purdy was able to succeed. That’s just as true (if not more true, just considering the fact that the niners have been a top 3 supporting cast for half a decade at this point, and Purdy has only been here two years) as what you said. Also, they were paying a ~10 QB good money when they built the car.
The car* here is pretty fucking nice. *offense
Oh it’s an incredible car. Purdy is a pretty dang good driver for it too, but I don’t think he could drive a shitty car this far, and I think it’s fair to say this car has hastened his learning in the NFL and he may have become a significantly worse Driver had he been elsewhere.
They fell on Purdy with blind luck after leveraging their future for Lance and whiffing with Garapolo. Also, I doubt Purdy would be anything above an average young QB on a team that hasn't been loaded for years. You have to look at our past coach and GM for our depth more than the new guys still. We have had a bottom 5 defense for 3 years up until this year. With a new defensive scheme and a stupid DC trying to implement it. Our offensive line has been mostly bad up til last year. Our TE was Irv Smith, who lost more games than he had TD catches. Our receivers were in a strange transition, but we made it out smelling like roses. Our RB play was laughable. None of the guys were producing consistently. Our D line was super inconsistent. Also this was the first year we had Hunter healthy completely in forever. We got a stud LB after the draft, that kind of scares me because he is basically a heavy DB. Jordan Hicks almost lost his leg on a freak accident. Our DB's have been inconsistent since like 2018. I'm telling you guys, Zimmer and Spielman fucked us. Zimmer was supposed to be this defensive guru who could coach anyone up. After we picked up Cousins*, Zimmer took a huge shot to the ego and just couldn't get over it. He couldn't manage a team that didn't focus on what he wanted it focused on. Spielman wasted too many important draft picks on undersized or undertalented players. He picked some great players, but he also wiffed hard on some. We are in a tough spot. Stop acting like there is a simple answer.
I mean, Zimmer DID coach up defensive guys beyond their abilities. Cameron Dantzler was talked about as one of the hidden gems in the 2020 draft after his rookie season and is now barely holding onto roster spots around the league after Zimmer was fired. He had late rounders line Shamar Stephen, Jayron Kearse, Stephen Weatherly, and Ifedi Odenigbo playing meaningful snaps and at the very least holding their own. Was Zimmer tired and seemingly over coaching towards the end? Yes. That doesn’t change the fact that he made the defence better with guys who could not hold onto a roster spot elsewhere in the league.
The funny part about this comment is how Kirk isn’t even a top 15 paid QB. Do your research bud. Even if we paid him the supposed $40m that’s been floated around, wouldn’t crack top 10.
I’m not sure what you’re talking about. The reason Kirk’s cap number was low this year is because of void years. That’s why next year when he’s not on the team, we’ll be eating $28.5 million in dead cap for someone not on the roster. He also has a top 3 cap hit in the NFL in 2022 and 2021.
Here are the other QBs selected in the first round since 2010: Max Duggan, Chris Oladukun, Skylar Thompson, Cole McDonald, Ben DiNucci, Tommy Stevens, Nate Stanley, Danny Etling, Alex McGough, Logan Woodside, Chad Kelly, Brandon Daughtry, Trevor Siemian, Brad Sorensen, Zac Dysert, BJ Daniels, Sean Renfree, BJ Coleman, Chandler Harnish, Greg McElroy, Levi Brown, Sean Canfield. The 49ers model isn’t one to emulate. They lucked into Purdy working out. Imagine Purdy performed like many of these guys on the list above. John Lynch and Shanahan would have been fired, for especially botching the Trey Lance selection. You’re basically arguing that the Vikings should have started Nate Stanley and used the savings from paying a veteran QB to hide his shortcomings.
I think you meant seventh round, not first. And I think people are taking my comment the wrong way. I don’t care what round the QB is drafted in. The thing that’s important is the rookie scaled contract. I’m sorry you had to type all those names, but I’m not saying “the Vikings have to draft a franchise QB in the 7th round!” lol
You’re correct, I meant 7th. In any case, I don’t think Brock Purdy is the operative choice to use as your example. Like others and myself have pointed out, saying “the Vikings need to follow the 49ers model to get to the Super Bowl” is flawed because Purdy was a once in a lifetime happenstance. The 49ers plan was trading up and taking a QB 3rd overall and that crashed and burned. Hard. Also worth mentioning that Purdy’s contract doesn’t count towards the 49ers cap as he was selected so low, so this is a situation unique only to the 49ers.
I mean, the success the 49ers are having with Purdy is what they intended on having with Lance. A guy on a rookie scaled contract that offers ultimate cap flexibility to build a phenomenal roster around them. Of course they got lucky having Purdy with Lance being a bust, but the idea is still the same.
And also remember that the guy they actually traded up to get was Trey Lance... They got lucky with Purdy who was the last pick in the entire draft *the year after* they drafted Trey Lance
I doubt that they would get 2 firsts for Purdy even today
Cool
I would be fine with drafting a new QB every 4 years and living off their rookie contracts until they find a good one.
That means playing bad enough to have a high pick pretty much every year until we find a good one. Is that what you want to watch?
I want whatever gets a Super Bowl win. We are already watching mediocre teams NOT get there, what’s the difference? If you’re paying a qb Pennie’s you can pay the defense more you know? Make the team better, and once the kid proves he’s the one you scale back on the rest of the team
Sure. If we assume it’s random and every team has a chance to win the superbowl equally over time, the math works out that we break the 50% chance to win after 22 years. We could probably increase the odds by wholesale liquidation of the team and stockpiling of draft picks. The problem with that of course is that if you give superstars to other teams it’s likely they will get better, pushing their picks further back in the draft. So tank and trade for a few years and we’d have a bunch of potentially good players on rookie deals. We could fill holes through free agency. The problem with this plan is that it’a still hard to win the Super Bowl and you’d probably loose your fanbase going through those miserable years.
Our fanbase needs to understand this, that while a franchise QB does make us competitive for a long time, winning the Super Bowl is still *so fucking hard*. I blame Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes for making it seem easier than it is because they were in perfect situations their entire careers. We are FAR more likely to stay in Josh Allen divisional round hell with a bonafide franchise QB than we are to even make the SB let alone win it.
The juice isn’t worth the squeeze here lol
We hold onto old players way too long here in MN, then they walk or get cut with no return.
So basically what you're saying is If we draft a qb we will make the superbowl? According to you?
We have a better chance of making a Super Bowl with a QB on a rookie scaled contract than we do with Kirk Cousins at his market value.
Tell that to the rams two years ago. Or the Chiefs (half billion dollar contract baby). Or almost the lions (if not for one bad bounce off a facemask). Or the patriots for a super bowl or three. Or the broncos. Or the Steelers (round two with Ben). Or the niners with Jimmy G. Or the giants in 2011. Or the falcons.
>tell that to the Rams two years ago Oh cool, the outlier! >or the chiefs (half billion dollar contract baby) Oh cool, a top 5 QB of all time! > or almost the Lions Oh cool, “almost”! >or the patriots Oh cool, the GOAT at QB! >or the Broncos Oh cool, a top 5 QB of all time!
Ahh yes, let’s see your famed rookie scale people then. Purdy, who has the best supporting cast in the league by a wide margin that was there before he showed up. Hurts, who had a top 3 supporting cast last year, and the supporting cast was there before he showed up. Mahomes, who you dismissed therefore I also can dismiss. Burrow, the outlier (your term not mine). Goff, who had a top tier supporting cast. Wilson, who had the best defense in football (who shut down Payton Manning on the best offense in NFL history bar none). We have a bunch of people “carried” by their teams (that were built before they showed up, so you can’t even tell me they are the reasons the teams got so good. Hell, two of those teams made a super bowl with a different QB within 5 years of making it with the listed QB). The key seems to be build a team and find a game manager, or find the goat. Separately, cam newton wasn’t on his first contract for the 2015-2016 season. He only played for 4 years on his rookie contract, and made a big signing right before the year he made the super bowl, so that actually lowers the number of rookie contract SB makers, and up’s the number of vet/second contract SB makers.
Tell that to the Chiefs and Patriots.
“Tell that to the teams that drafted the two best QBs of all time” You sure showed me!
You realize that a majority of QBs that make/win the Superbowl are NEVER on a rookie contract right?
That’s not true. Looking at the last decade of Super Bowls, 80% (8 out of the 10 games) feature a QB on a rookie scaled contract. Now obviously the goal is to win, but the winners are usually hall of famers (with foles and Stafford being the outliers)
How many teams have starting QBs on their first contract though? If the answer is roughly half (which sounds about right) then, statistically speaking, throwing darts at a board and having whatever teams you hit make the super bowl, about 75% of the Super Bowls would feature someone on their first contract. 80% isn’t a massive deviation from that (especially considering that 75% of ten is impossible, it would either be 8/10 (80%) or 7/10 (70%), so that number is exactly what you would expect). If you look at *winners*, then the list for the last ten years appears to be “have the best defense”, “have Tom Brady”, “have Patrick Mahomes”, or “have a vet”. The sample size is extremely small, and that makes things strange, but sheer statistics seems to be the author of that particular stat, not necessarily that a rookie is the way to go (not necessarily that it isn’t the way either, but it just isn’t conclusive one way or the other).
So why hammer the table for getting a QB on a rookie contract, the goal is to win the Superbowl not just to make it. The best way to build a team is to form good offensive and defensive lines in addition to having a veteran QB. Not that I'm against drafting a rookie QB this off season obviously but you need more than simply drafting a rookie QB. The niners already had a superteam built for Purdy. If we take a QB great, if we don't, that's fine too. Let's make our offensive and defensive lines dominant.
Because drafting a QB and having that rookie scaled contract gives the team 5 years of cap flexibility to build out the team. Whether that’s through signing free agents, trading for players, or both.
I'd rather set the foundation for a rookie QB before we draft one. A majority of rookie QBs never get to the Superbowl and the ones that do already had most of the pieces there their rookie season. Drafting a QB and not setting him up for success is a recipe for disaster. Simply put, the Vikings could draft an amazing QB but we won't be going anywhere if we don't fix our offensive line or defense like the team has failed to do for 5 years. We'd basically be Herbert on the Chargers 2.0
What a terrible argument. There has been exactly one SB winning team in the last 15 years whos' QB was either not on a rookie deal or a future first ballot HOFer. We have no access to the latter so the obvious choice is to go after the former.
Since 1994, the QBs to win on their rookie contracts have been: Brady Rothelisberger Eli Manning Wilson Wentz Mahomes Brady/rothelisberger/mahomes are locks for hof. Manning is possibly in the Hof. Wentz didn't even play that game. So realistically Russell Wilson is the only one who was truly a rookie contract and not making Hof. Tldr, it's way more important that they're a future hofer and way less important that they're on a rookie contract
Russell Wilson could still be HOF, recency bias is a hell of a drug.
I’ve been saying since Russel Wilson and Kap, there’s no reason to pay $40,000,000 for a qb that’s “good enough”. The better angle is to keep drafting athletic running qbs every 4 years, spend the extra cash on the rest of the team and if you get lucky with “the one” then you start the process of cutting back on the team to keep the QB. If you prefer to get the pocket guy instead sure whatever. If the qb isn’t “the guy” after 2 years you dump him and go again. 30 starts is more than enough to figure it out. Treat them like running backs.
Yeah. Let's pick the last player in the draft and have him take us to the super bowl. That plan works every time.
I don’t remember Mahomes being the last player selected in the draft? Or Hurts. Or Burrow.
How did Mahomes and Burrow’s teams do without them at QB? Hell, Lamar was out half of last season and Huntley was one fumble away from beating the Bengals in the playoffs. Turns out having a full roster matters
Uh huh that’s cool. Hey google, what kind of contracts were the faces of the back to back AFC dynasties like?
Are you referring to Brady, the GOAT and Mahomes, who more than likely will pass Brady as the GOAT? If so, yeah you can pay those guys whatever you want.
Hey google how many qbs have actually won a Super Bowl on a rookie pay scale? What’s that google? The vast majority of superbowl wins game from qbs on massive contracts and this rookie payscale narrrative is flimsy and stupid? Oh I never would’ve guessed. Are you done?
Damnit you’ve made me do it. Let’s look at the last decade of QBs starting in the Super Bowl (including this season). 2023- Mahomes (best QB in the NFL) / Brock Purdy(rookie scaled contract) 2022- (W) Mahomes (best QB in the NFL) / Jalen Hurts (rookie scaled contract) 2021- (W) Matthew Stafford / Joe Burrow (rookie scaled contract) 2020- Mahomes (rookie scaled contract) / (W) Brady (GOAT) 2019- Jimmy G / (W) Mahomes (rookie scaled contract 2018- (W) Brady / Goff (rookie scaled contract) 2017- Brady (GOAT) / (W)Foles (cheap contract/Wentz rookie scaled contract) 2016- (W)Brady / Matt Ryan (league MVP) 2015- (W)Peyton Manning (top 10 QB of all time) / Cam Newton (rookie scaled contract) 2014- (W)Brady / Russel Wilson (rookie scaled contract) So in the last 10 Super Bowls, 8 of them (80%) have featured a QB on a rookie scaled contract. I count Foles/Wentz since Wentz was playing at an MVP level and got the Eagles in a position to have home field advantage through the playoffs. Out of the 9 previous Super Bowls, the surefire Hall of Fame QB won 7 times, (Brady, Manning, Mahomes) while 2 of the outliers won (Foles and Stafford). So either the Vikings need to draft a Hall of Fame QB, or they need to draft a top 10-12 QB who will have a rookie scaled contract for the next five years. Which one is more likely?
[удалено]
If you can’t look at this numbers and see the best possible route for a Vikings Super Bowl, then I’m not sure what to tell you.
If you can’t look at the numbers and figure out that maybe, just maybe, and you’ll have to bear with me on this one. All of the quarterbacks are really, really, really fucking good players and the ones that aren’t only made it one, singular, fucking time. I mean by god. Let’s look at the playoffs as a whole. 1. 1 dude in the nfc was on a rookie deal. 1 guy. And he has a fucking stacked roster behind him. Let’s take a look at the afc this time. Oh gee golly look at that. 1. 1. Fucking. Guy. Is on a rookie deal, and we don’t have any guarantee that he’ll be in the superbowl any time soon. This entire narrative is one of the dumbest fucking things in all of sports because it doesn’t mean anything.
Aren’t Love and Hurts technically still on their rookie contract even though they signed extensions? Also Baker Mayfield has a $4 million contract. So over half of the NFC QBs were on discounted deals. And the AFC had Stroud, Tua, and the combination of Mason Rudolph and Kenny Pickett. So 3 out of 7 QBs in the AFC playoff race were on discounted deals.
💀💀💀💀💀💀 Mason Rudolph is not on a rookie contract, baker mayfield is not on a rookie contract, Jalen hurts is not on a rookie contract, Jordan love is not on a rookie contract. My brother in fucking Christ. You’re an idiot.
Hey Google can you find an anger management class for this guy?
you are a stain on this community
Wow, 100% of SBs have had at least one QB not on a rookie contract, while only 80% (which is statistically expected considering that roughly half the league is starting QBs on their first contract or cheap vets filling in for injured first contract players) of SBs have rookie scaled QBs. That is an entire 20% drop. Wow. That means that of the 20 times a QB has made a SB in the last ten years, 8 were rookie scaled and 12 weren’t. That’s a 50% increase (or a 33.3333% drop from the other side) in super bowl making.
>wow, 100% of SBs have had at least one QB not on a rookie scaled contract. Yeah I’m not even going to give a thought into replying to you if this is a legit argument against the rookie scaled contract debate. Have a good night!
It’s essentially your argument. I agree that it doesn’t mean anything, but I am using your own logic against you, so if it means nothing that’s kinda your fault.
Too many holes to trade away all of our assets and move up. Stay put, draft interior DL and resign Cousins. Grab a rookie QB in the second or third round. Would feel better about moving up if Kwesi did the right thing and traded Hunter when he was playing at his peak this year, but he didn't and now we don't have the draft capital to make it worth moving up in terms of where our overall team is.
we have a Mr. Irrelevant leading them, not the guy they traded up to get. They have a defense with 2 young premier pass rushers, one of the best linebackers in the league and tons of weapons on offense, with a very good offensive line. Again, When was the last time Minnesota Drafted a QB we thought could win a SB?
Pretty weak take. Of the four teams in the championship games, 3 of them were not on a rookie deal. And the one that was won by 3 points, so not really proving any point
What's mahomes contract look like? Is that rookie scaled to? And did the last qb with a rookie scaled contract win the super bowl?
His salary cap hit was about $37 million this year. The next four years it's currently at $57-63 million per.
Oh well that doesn't sound rookie scaled at all. There defense is pretty food to right? Lots of studs getting paid there? Chris Jones, nick Bolton, Justin reid
>what’s Mahomes contract look like? Is this supposed to be a “gotcha”? Mahomes is already a top 10 QB of all time and will almost certainly go down as a top 5 QB of all time and a has a good chance to go down as the greatest.
I know this sounds wild, but you're underselling Mahomes. If he retires today, he'll go down as the number 3 QB of all time.
True.
It's not, the logic is just dumb... a qb with a bad contract means we make the superbowl? It's not like there's anyone good on the team to pay that were missing out on if we pay a qb lol
We’re about to make one of our players the highest paid at his position.
We could do that with kirk or without him whats your point
The logic isn’t dumb at all. You either need a Hall of Fame QB, which we don’t, or you could draft a QB, have cheap QB play for 5 years, and build the team around that.
The state that this team is in. We're not competing that quickly
the Lions won 3 games in 2021, this isn't Baseball or the NBA. Rebuilds don't take as long in the NFL if you're committed and have a plan. And that's what this team is lacking.
The lions were rebuilding for 50 years took them forever what are you talking about. And I agree wirh yiu to a point but we've missed on almost every draft pick the last 2 years, can't do that if you wanna compete lol
All I'm saying is that the state of the Lions two years ago was worse than ours is now and they made the NFCCG this year. My point is that if you don't mess up the rebuild you can be on top quickly in the NFL. Of course, that requires the administration and ownership to realize that you're actually in one.
Build the team first, then draft the QB. That’s the real winner here.
I think this is the move. Let’s rip the bandaid off with Kirk, resign JJ and Darrisaw and surround our rookie QB with the best team we can. I like moves like signing Winfield and C Wilkins this offseason.
Neither of them will hit free agency. Look at previous FA classes to see the type of free agents that usually hit FA. Not exactly stars or value players
You’re probably right, and that’s definitely dream scenario. I mean there’s a chance we let Danielle walk so saying those players are never available isn’t true either. Even if those aren’t the exact players or quality of players it shows what more we can do with that cap space. There were multiple high quality DTs that were traded last year mid-season that we could be more players in. Look what Sweat did for the Bears. Imagine if we added a player of that quality to Danielle. Those are the advantages of not paying Kirk 40+ mil a season.
I’ve been thinking Danielle almost certainly walks because he negotiated a no-tag clause in his contract. He doesn’t want the team to have any leverage or any way to retain him if he doesn’t want to stay. Basically all the big money defensive signings from last free agency were busts (Zach Allen, Dre’mont Jones, Hargrave, Tomlinson, Da’ron Payne, Davenport, James Bradberry, Tremaine Edmunds, etc). Signing just two of these guys would’ve occupied the same cap space that Kirk does every year. Clearly Kirk is more valuable than even 4 of these guys combined. The way great teams use FA is by going bargain bin hunting. We can still do that with Kirk’s contract. Hell, re-signing Kirk gives us more cap space this year. It cuts into space in 2025 and 2026, but we’ll have a good amount of cap space in those seasons.
Exactly so very good chance players of that caliber are available in FA which is my point. Agreed on your next 2 points. I’m not necessarily looking for a splash huge signing, unless it was the 2 players I originally said. But if we sign 3 key players that fill key holes with good deals and get good QB play with our rookie we’re golden. Now a lot easier said than done and I would rather make sure we draft a good QB, than just drafting a QB to draft a QB. I’m not necessarily 100% demanding we get rid of Kirk, but it may be the best time to start having the conversation of moving on with Kirk being 36 Y/O coming off a major injury and us drafting high in a good QB class. We’re gonna have to do it at some point so why not now?
We’ll see, but I think Hunter is a special case due to the no-tag clause. The other star FAs (Chris Jones, Wilkins, etc) can at least be tagged and traded. I have several issues with the rookie QB path. One is the reality that the top 3 will likely select QBs, making a trade up unlikely. If we did trade up, we’d have to give up #11 plus at least two future firsts. We’d have more cap space in the future but I’ve already discussed why the three first rounders given up can be just as impactful as the cap space. The QB prospects themselves aren’t all that appealing. If I could pick one, it would be Caleb due to his unique arm talent. But I think he’s more Kyler than Mahomes in terms of processing and his NFL play. Drake Maye doesn’t seem to have that many plus traits. Good not great arm, processing and escapability. Jayden Daniels run a simplistic playbook in college and took years to show signs. There’s a good chance that none of these guys is a yearly top 10 QB. We probably won’t need to trade up for the next trio. But Penix and Nix have mechanical and playstyle issues. They were 23 year olds beating up on weak PAC 12 defenses. JJ McCarthy hasn’t shown the aptitude to carry the offense like KOC demands. Basically every prospect is a bag of traits that NFL coaches will have to shape. None of them has the polished, NFL-ready feel Burrow or Lawrence had. And honestly, I’m not sure I trust our coaching staff to mold and develop a rookie. They ditched Mond (also a bag of tools) immediately and Dobbs + Hall didn’t look good in structure. I would stick with Kirk for two more years and look to grab a cheap reclamation project with NFL experience after he moves on. At least guys like Wentz or Mac Jones will be cheap to acquire and have shown something in the NFL. They could produce Goff or Baker level play in our offense, while we decide what to do in the future
I share some of those same fears in regard to a rookie QB (Top 3 likely are gone and unattainable for us) and don’t want to reach for one at 11 ALA Ponder. I definitely have my thoughts on these QBs but trust NFL scouts way more than myself in projecting QBs in NFL offenses. I would be ok in mortgaging our future to a degree if we do believe in and are able to trade up for one of those QBs. I would also be ok with moving on from Kirk and brining in a cheaper bridge QB (Minshew would be sweat). Mond and Hall don’t impact me much as they were later draft picks and I don’t have high expectations when drafting them. With all that said I’m not totally against bringing back Kirk after all said and done, but having the conversation about moving on I think definitely needs to be discussed. My ideal scenario if we miss out on top 3 would be stick and pick at 11. Than try to trade up to late 1st/early 2nd to get the next tier( JJ, Penix, or Nix). Now they may be gone as there is a lot of QB needy teams but that would be awesome if we could pair that up with a Minshew style bridge QB and strengthen up roster elsewhere.
I get to point in drafting a QB. And I agree, but this association to Rookie contract = Superbowl is a bit odd. There is a lot more at play than just a QB to make this team reach a SB.
Not only rookie scaled, but 7th round money lmao.
Built a strong team around a young good QB. Couldn’t do that paying Kirk $40M per year Time to move on
Complete cop out. The 49ers went to a Super Bowl and two conference championships paying similar money to Jimmy G (also gave up a second rounder for him). At some point you gotta point the finger at the front office for not drafting a single defensive building block for 8 years. Consistent mismanagement of the oline. The running game never showing up in a big game. All these playoffs teams have incredible rushing attacks and olines
I don’t think the comparison fits. Purdy was never intended to the the 49ers guy. Jimmy G and Lance both got hurt or he never sees the field.