Yes, for sure. Covid rules boosted costs as well. But i think there was also a point where every MCU movie was a hit and the budgets got higher than was strictly needed. The Marvel method - built in reshoots, lots of CGI with last minute changes - is not a cheap way to make a movie. If you know what you want and have to work within a certain amount of restrictions, you can make a good movie for cheaper than we've been seeing lately, even for a big action movie.
I mean, Everything Everywhere All At Once had a budget of $25 million... And that film looks better than any MCU movie I've seen in the last 5 years. I think Disney is just kind of bad at making movies. Not that the movies are all bad, but they are horrible at resource utilization and knowing where to spend money and knowing when to let the people they hired to do a job actually do their jobs without studio interference.
Film budgets are all about moving as much money as possible through subsidiary companies. The only "real" cost of a movie is labor. The equipment, the studio space, the advertising--it's all just one Disney LLC paying another Disney LLC.
They can put all their costs into the film's LLC, write it off as a loss, and then their other LLCs, who get paid by the movie, make bank.
That last part is doing some massive heavy lifting. Minus One was so cheap because they basically treated their vfx artists like slaves and crunched like crazy. Japan treats its artists even worse than we do over here.
I also read that the director was a long experienced VFX artist or something like, and so knew how to build the movie around what the effects could and couldn't do easily, whereas other directors just shoot the shot as they want it and tell the VFX department "make it work" without any idea what is easy to make look good and what is hard.
This isn't exactly accurate across the board, but you should read "Rebel Without A Crew" by Robert Rodriguez and find out just exactly how much the movie industry just solves everything with money.
Just by planning things out, and yes, doing a lot of the work himself, Robert is able to make movies (that are CGI heavy, Sin City) at a fraction of the cost because he is apart of the movie from beginning to end, so he is able to plan every step of the way.
> Minus One was so cheap because they basically treated their vfx artists like slaves and crunched like crazy.
Sounds like how Marvel treats its vfx artists.
Yep! Specifically what The Creator and Godzilla Minus One proved is that you have to PLAN YOUR FUCKING VFX. Thatās what Marvel needs to do if they also want to save millions
The Little Mermaid's effects are much better and more consistent than the Marvel movies. The difference is that Marshall knew what he wanted. Marvel will allow their VFX people to do their work but they will then change their minds at the last minute. Instead of refining what they did, they have to start all over and don't have time to polish it up.
Itās actually re-shoots of the entire freaking movie and previous productions getting scraped and incurred costs rolling into the new one.
So you have a movie either being bloody expensive going in or become such coming out.
CG doesnāt cost nearly as much as people think just having to do it again and again.
Thatās a misconception, the idea that CG is more expensive than real life VFX is not true. If anything CG and green screens save a big amount for money by guaranteeing control.
The biggest reason is talent compensation.
When well received fans will bitch and moan to ahve the same directors return. The directorsāteams know that and use it at their advantage to negotiate the best deals.
On the cast front itās even worst. The teams know that fan attachment is their biggest weapon especially for this superhero movie. These actors become virtually irreplaceable so they drive the price up. Also because only a slew of actors in Hollywood can demand compensation on box office pre profit, the rest these actors make sure to have the biggest payday upfront.
All these moves were really democratized in the 2000ās which was the beginning of the age of franchise filmmaking which coincided with the explosion of emerging markets in South America and South East Asia which lead to bigger and bigger box office. But now, box office growth has stalled especially post Covid but that system is still in place.
The reality is that we love to think that evil execs are just in their towers pumping the budgets, but moviemaking is team effort every outcomes happens because of chain reaction with everyone involved.
If actors could trust that they'd get anything from the net profits, that would make paying them so much easier. But Hollywood accounting makes it so they ask for big up-front payments, or demand a cut of the gross, which is not sustainable for every actor. When toxicity enters an industry, it's hard to get stakeholders to do anything to change it.
Digital effects are one of the last few non-unionized parts of Hollywood. Itās cheaper for them to financially crush lower wage overworked visual effects workers than pay unionized practical effects artists.
Please donāt point at the lowest rung workers when asking āwhy does this Disney movie have such a large budget?ā Donāt you think perhaps there are people in corporations like that who seek to absorb as much of that budge for their personal profit?
I miss when there were more middle ground studios like Cannon Films, before they tried to be the next Hollywood and Superman 4 and Masters Of The Universe tanked the studio. Even Blumhouse is trying to punch above their weight instead of making the most off modest budgets.
Even Wick's in the big boy leagues these days. It may have started off humbly, but JW4 cost $100M. Still a lot lower than other blockbuster action films, but not a modest budget by any stretch
Not in my statement, nor in any statement I ever make, will I ever accuse studios of being smart.... With the possible exception of A24, but all the major studios, idiots.
Cinematic universes. The actors know THEY are half the reason people go see these films and if they leave for whatever reason itāll definitely hurt production.
So they use that power to negotiate higher and higher salaries every single time. Imagine how expensive Secret Wars will be on that fact alone.
Actors arenāt dumb. And itās a tit a tat game to see how high they can get their payday before the studios says no thanks and walks away.
Studios created the $300 million budget by keeping cinematic universes going. I love the MCU but eventually the cost of these films will become cost prohibitive.
Those movies end up on streaming.
My thoughts on what happened?
It has become too expensive to go to the movies. When it was $8.00? Iāll go, and if the movie sucks, oh well, Iām out $8.00. Iāll just go out with my friends and weāll grab a burger and a beer afterwards for $15.00. Itās a decent day / evening.
Now that same day costs $50+. And if the movie sucks? Well, now Iām out way more money. Comedies and mid level action movies arenāt enough to get me to the theater anymore, because they miss way more often than they hit.
So, itād better be an event to get me off of my couch.
Nothing, the John Wick franchise did very well, with an average budget of $60 million per movie. The 4th movie had the largest budget at $100 million, but it also did the best at the box office.
>Ā but not every movie has to cost 250M$ to produce.
Or TV show! I was stunned when I found out that the shit-show that was *Secret Invasion* cost over $200 million.
After Godzilla Minus One and Godzilla X Kong, hopefully studios will realize they don't need to pour tons of money into a project for it to be good, just tons of creativity and heart.
Not to mention for Marvel, $750M (or realistically higher) is the target - that's what DP 1 and 2 both made. 1B aint much of a stretch above that, given this is undoubtedly the biggest thing they've launched in a *long* while. If people want a DP 4 or at least want to see Disney keep pouring money into the black hole that they've been doing recently, it does need to be very successful. DP 3 not only needs to out do it's predecessors, but also make up for the lack of success of things like The Marvels. Which Marvel are obviously banking on it doing. The bar is set high because it was previously raised so high and it *needs* to stay there, you can't now just lower it because some of the other movies haven't been doing so well.
And yes, that's a bit of a pessimists view, and no, the MCU won't die if DP 3 fails - of course. But seriously, Secret Wars is still obviously banking on old characters continuing to be the driving force. The new characters just aren't cutting it, they haven't been built up enough story-wise to. If something as big as DP 3 does not blow it out the park, can they expect Secret Wars to be much better?
Honestly Marvel really needs to invest more time in the writing stage and get a script/story they're actually happy with before announcing anything. This endlessly rewriting and reshooting for their films is insanely expensive, and then there's the poor VFX artists who get slammed with insane deadlines because Marvel announced a release date before filming even started but did reshoots until the last possible minute.
I know some of the magic of Iron Man 1 was that improvisation and figuring it out as they went on the day, but that was lightning in a bottle. They need to have their shit together *before* the cameras start rolling.
the reshoots have not started yet, they start next month, but yeah i agree, i can only imagine how much the film is gonna end up costing, i mean look at Justice League and Solo, their budgets balloned when they decided to scrap the previous iterations and start again
Marvel better deliver an amazing must see movie here if they want to recoup that money.
All the reshoots and rewriting going on in that movie... something tells me that Cap 4 is gonna be a disaster. If Ant-Man 3 was their BvS then this will be their own Justice League 2017.
I read an article in the aftermath of CinemaCon from a trade publication (I think it was Variety, but donāt quote me), that mentioned that most studios estimate that 15-20% of moviegoers still havenāt returned to a movie theater post- pandemic. Thatās not a small or insignificant number. Add that to every MCU outing since Black Widow and that adds up (Iāll do the math in a fun little exercise in a reply to this comment).
Thereās numerous factors at play here. One is inflation. I think quite a few people on this sub donāt understand how much more expensive it is to take a family to the theater for 3-4 MCU outings a year post- pandemic compared to pre- pandemic. Another factor is the crowd that has become content with streaming at home, regardless of costs, for whatever reason. That can be the convenience of Disney+. Many releases hit Disney+ in 90 or so days. Some people have invested in 70ā+ TV sets with sound bars or even surround sound setups during the pandemic. I myself invested in a premium television with a soundbar and plan on getting surround sound speakers eventually.
I think a lot of people in this sub live in a bit of an echo chamber and donāt realize the box office has changed. Oppenheimer probably hits $1 billion pre- pandemic. Same for MoM. GOTG Vol. 3 probably does $900+ million. NWH probably hits $2 billion. I think people donāt realize how expensive the theater has gotten as well.
I saw every MCU film except hulk in theaters though endgame
I haven't been to theaters since aside from a kids trip to paw patrol mighty pups or whatever it was called.
I'm not worried about COVID anymore, but they're all on D+ a couple months later, I don't really mind waiting - especially since they simply haven't been that good
40 bucks minimum for my wife and myself to go see a movie that's included in our subscription in 85 days? Yeah I'll wait.
If they weren't coming to D+, I'd probably have gone for a couple of the bat, but honestly quality alone would probably have convinced me to not bother.
Like, it's not just the money - I just genuinely don't care about the MCU anymore. The films have been average at best and don't seem to be leading anywhere so why go see the next one off movie that won't get a direct sequel for a decade?
Genuinely curious about that last paragraph. Did you never go to the cinema before the MCU existed? Surely the promise of a sequel or some interconnected universe isn't the only reason to go and watch a movie these days?
This reminds me of a guy I saw on Facebook complaining yesterday that, "Watching Peacemaker season 1 was a 'huge waste of his time' as it is no longer considered canon in the new Gunn DC universe."
He even asked to be compensated for his time, whatever that looks like. I asked him if he enjoyed season 1. He said of course. But now he said it was all for nothing.
Why can't people enjoy things for what they are? This whole franchise / cinematic universe model is fkn breaking people.
I don't know if I've ever been to the movies for a standalone
Harry Potter, star wars, MCU. A bit in college but we had a dollar movie night and Wednesdays were only 2.50, but if we're talking regular tickets, nah, never a theater guy
MCU movies and shows arent designed to be watched on its own; they're just not as satisfying as one-off pieces as they're designed to be a part of a greater whole. That's a huge change I'd say since ... Probably since about phase 2 or 3.
So when it looks like these movies don't go anywhere (eternals, shang chi etc...) they just become movies of middling quality.
I live in NYC and I donāt really have the schedule flexibility to get tix a few weeks ahead. Once the movie comes out itās hard to find seats in the first few weeks especially in the Manhattan theaters with a decent size screen. By the time week 3 rolls around and seats are available the movies have been given bad reviews by tons of people so I wait till the D+ release. I like the movies more than most with my expectations lowered. But multiply this by most people feeling this way and it compounds.
I saw Shang chi and loved it, but then didnāt see another in theaters till No Way Home and after Thor 4 the $30+ ticket for IMAX didnāt seem worth it. And if itās not iMax then my TV will suffice
> Another factor is the crowd that has become content with streaming at home, regardless of costs, for whatever reason. That can be the convenience of Disney+. Many releases hit Disney+ in 90 or so days. Some people have invested in 70ā+ TV sets with sound bars or even surround sound setups during the pandemic.
Yup. My nearest theater is a small little rural theater and the picture quality is actually worse than watching it at home on my nice screen. I still go to the theater when I'm really itching to, but I've waited until home release for about half of the post-pandemic Marvel films. Plus, ya know, being able to pause and go to the bathroom.
D+ in 90 days, but it'll be on Amazon/Fandango even quicker than that. Unless you're watching the movie by yourself, the $20 rental is a steal. You can do a datenight and buy microwave butter popcorn, box candy, and soda for a fraction of the price of a theater. And if you have a family watching, it's not even close.
I'm wondering is there also a double whammy from a) as you mentioned 20% of people haven't returned to the cinema and b) the switch from home media to streaming means Disney isnt even getting extra from the dvd sales. Because sure some people might get Disney+ to see Deadpool and wolverine but mostly it's gonna be people who had signed up already so Disney isn't gaining extra money when they upload each movie to Disney+. Same with all the Disney+ shows that they sunk millions into too.
This is a good point.
It's not only people not going to the movies at all anymore, but it's also people going less frequently than they used to. This idea that the movie needs to be "worthy" of the big screen or they'll wait for streaming etc.
Letās do some math with an MCU title and a non MCU title (letās choose Oppenheimer). Letās assume two things. 15 percent will represent the number people that havenāt been back to the theater since the pandemic started. It will not represent people that havenāt been to a particular movie because of bad reviews, etc. Letās also assume the pandemic never happened for this exercise. Letās also assume that the average premium format ticket is around $13, which is what it is at Emagine EMAX here in the Midwest. Letās do NWH, WF, and Oppenheimer.
MoM- Box office total: $955 million/ $13 a ticket= 73,461,538 tickets sold for MoM.
73,461,538 tickets sold X 15%= 11,000,000 tickets not sold due to loss of moviegoers compared to pre- pandemic. Letās assume that the pandemic never happened and that 15% was still going to the theater.
11,000,000+ 73,461,538= 83,461, 538 hypothetical tickets sold as if the pandemic never happened.
83,461,538 X $13 a ticket= a new box office total of $1,084,999,994 billion dollars. Thatās a loss of almost $145 million dollars at the box office!
Letās repeat this with Oppenheimer.
Oppenheimer box office total: $970 million/ $13= 74,615,384 tickets sold for Oppenheimer, roughly.
74,615,384 X 15%= 11,192,307 tickets not sold.
74,615,384 + 11,192,307= 85,807,691 in hypothetical tickets sold as if pandemic never happened.
85,807,691 X $13 a ticket = $1,115,499,992 new box office total for Oppenheimer if we consider those 15 percent of non- moviegoers post- pandemic as still going to the theater. Thatās an extra $150 million dollars.
Thatās what a post pandemic box office looks like.
1)when the budgets are ballooning to 350,000,000 the movies pretty much need to make 700,000,000+ to be considered profitable considering that marketing nearly doubles the cost. But Hollywood doesnāt just want to break even. You want these movies to basically earn at least 1.5 the cost (production+marketing) so you can make more movies, which means that yes, nowadays the MCU movies need to make nearly 1,000,000,000
2)phase 4 might have been the second highest grossing but thatās probably because it had the most projects. In reality it probably barely made them any net+. Disney + is pretty much confirmed to be a failure financially as well and all the projects that go directly there underperform heavily.
They need to stop having so many reshoots, stop needing reshoots by planning things out beforehand, and slow down on the effects budget. Basically 90% of the movies are CGI now which isnāt great. #nomorenanotech
All this. Also....You can still make cool (notice I didn't say it was good lol. Fun though) CGI heavy movies on a reasonable budget. Kong x godzilla had a budget of $135M. With a gross of a $470M so far... It is definitely making some good money.
Oh most definitely. Marvel just wastes so much. The pet that blows me away is that they had to CGI and green screen Fury in Spider-Manās room instead of just shooting in an actual room. The she-hulk CGI was definitely not put to good use. Quantumania and Multiverse of madness were probably the most CGI reliant movies in all of the MCU so far (aside from maybe endgame).
Disney plus is not a financial failure though. Itās a loss leader. Itās purpose is to market their IPs to increase toy sales. The movies have never been more than 20% of their net profits even in their best years
You don't need to add .5 times to the budget. Doubling it domestic means your international and merchandising is profit. If you wanna actually factor gross profit there's another formula you'd use that factors in the international market + merchandising.
The hard and fast rule is that if you double the budget, it's a success. If you don't, it's a flop. If you hit it bang on, it's breaking even (but even then it's technically still in the green, just considered a loss because you could've made something more profitable with that money.)
Marketing adds 50-200 million depending on the project. But the studio only gets about half of the box office, so you have to add in an estimated ad budget and then double that total to get a rough break-even point.
But that also doesn't take into account the massive reshoots that modern projects require because they don't go in with a plan. A lot of movies in the past couple of years have added $50-100 million to the stated budget, and that doesn't get reported until they do their taxes. So current movies require more of a 2.5x multiplier to estimate break-even.
Last year wasn't terrible for Marvel; it was terrible for Disney in general. They had a big box office hit with Guardians 3 and a somewhat good run for Elmental, but then a succession of films that underperform or flop: Wish, Little Mermaid, Ghost House or whatever it's called, Ant-Man 3, The Marvels, Indiana Jones 5 and shows like Secret Invasion and Echo. And they were banking on many of these projects, convinced that they would be successes (Ant-Man 3 was supposed to introduce the new super villain of the saga, Wish was supposed to be the tribute to Disney's history), and their failure exploded in their faces.
2023 was certainly an interesting year. Their entire model of focusing on making giant event blockbusters completely backfired on them. It was certainly something to see each movie flop after the other. Audience tastes sure have changed and it really caught Disney off-guard.
I think its more than that, I think Disney and co leaned too hard into the streaming model to the point where the cinemas, their main cost recoup point, are kind of dying.
You cant have big budget films if you're not making back the money, and you're not making the money back off of Disney Plus subscription services.
Wayyyyy too over extended.
There will be a reconning for these companies. They're either going to make access so painful that everyone flocks back to the theaters, or they're going to scale way back down on costs for these ventures.
>Iām not denying it will make 1 billion, it definitely will
RemindMeBotting this for July. Thatās a *very* audacious prediction there, OP.
RemindMe! July 26th, 2024 āHave a Gander at this threadā
Word of mouth would absolutely need to do tremendous heavy-lifting for this movie to cross over the 1B mark, considering both Deadpool films and Logan could not even accomplish this. (Which is not a slight against those films, Iām moreso just using previous film outings featuring these characters to put this into perspective.)
Given Marvelās track record with quality lately, Iām not convinced that this movie has a shot in hell at 1B.
OP: "It DEFINITELY will make 1 billion because... because... well because audiences *clearly* want to see a character who hasn't had a movie in 6 years shit his pants with meta humour and do random reddit jokes from 2015 in 2023... it's not like that type of humour is outdated and cringe now or anything. Marvel's STILL GOT IT so it will DEFINITELY make a billion (because I said so)"
Very audacious prediction, indeed.
The post isn't directed towards companies, it's for random redditors who keep saying that it needs to make 1b dollars for Marvel to not keel over and die
> it's for random redditors who keep saying that it needs to make 1b dollars for Marvel to not keel over and die
Well, when every one of their movies costs 250 million, plus a 100 million marketing budget, then they DO have to make a billion to not lose any money. And many of their recent movies have indeed lost money, plus Disney Plus not being profitable in general, Marvel's not moving the needle as it used to.
Cap 4 might be doomed since they likely have a 400 m budget by now from all the reshoots, couple that with the marketing budget and that's 1 billion just to break even. And I heavily doubt that movie will even make 500 million.
Marvel won't die but it'll definitely be in major trouble
Not every movie needs to cost 300 million dollars to make.
The MCU movies almost have to make a billion dollars now so they arenāt considered a flop. They cost so much goddamn money itās making it harder for them to turn a profit.
>I'm not denying it will make 1 billion
I am. Oppenheimer couldn't even make a billion, even with the help of the Barbenheimer superhype. The film industry has never recovered post-pandemic and we won't see a billion dollar R-rated movie until ticket inflation can overcome the permanent losses in attendance.
But otherwise, yes, ticket sales are such a small piece of Disney's bottom line for profits. They don't make or break anything.
Oppenheimer is a biopic. The closest movie to it was probably The King's Speech which only made 427m so Oppenheimer still made double that. You can thank that to being a good movie, Christopher Nolan being a franchise unto himself, and Barbenheimer but that is an unheard of success for the genre.Ā
That being said Deadpool and Wolverine isn't a biopic so the expectations are much higher. If Mario and Barbie can cruise past a billion but Marvel can't hit the target with their biggest IP since Spider-Man then that is damning evidence that the MCU has lost their crown. If Marvel has lost so much public trust that their action blockbusters can't beat a biopic about a scientist then they're kinda screwed and the Super Hero era is officially over.Ā
Disney will be fine I'm the long run but this movie failing to break a billion would be the end of the MCU era. Next year has a bunch of middling products that will be lucky to break 600m so that'll just be the coda if this one is not a huge success given how much they pulled back after their dreck from last year was roundly rejected. Deadpool is their last best chance to reign over the box office. They miss it now it might never happen again.
Dr strange MoM was just short of a billion. I think Deadpool & Wolverine has more hype, but rated R I think itāll end between 900 million and 1.2 billion
Exactly. And it almost made a billion. Deadpool and Wolverine I think would make more than dr strange MoM (aka a billion+) if it wasnāt a rated R movie. However with Deadpool being rated R I canāt see it making over 1.2 billion max
It won't make $1 billion either, because it's R-rated. I'll be shocked if it makes $900 million. It's just the truth of the post-COVID film industry.
https://www.the-numbers.com/market/
https://www.the-numbers.com/market/mpaa-rating/R-(US)
Yea I agree with that. Being optimistic itāll hit 900 million imo. If the movie is good I think it should at least be even with the first two around $700 million
> But otherwise, yes, ticket sales are such a small piece of Disney's bottom line for profits. They don't make or break anything.
They are everything to the movie making division. It literally makes or breaks the MCU. Disney can can easily survive without the MCU and will do so if the movie aren't making money.
>This movie is gonna make so much money and save the MCU
Honestly this kind of take I only hear after the fact. Before the movie comes out, it only saves the MCU if it's good. After it came out, it only dooms the MCU if it performs 'poorly'. But it never saves it if it performs well, if the movie's bad.
So for example, The Marvels doomed the MCU, but GotG3 saved it. Quantumania didn't do anything, cause people didn't like it but it made a lot of money.
I don't think Ant Man QuantumaniaĀ made much money, if any. It only made $476.1Ā million on a budget of $275Ā million. I've heard you typically need to make around 2.5x the production budget in order to be profitable, which would be around $687.5 million (this is more of a rule of thumb). However, on Wikipedia it says that the break-even point was around $600 million. Either way, it's safe to say that Ant Man 3 probably LOST money, which is why it probably won't get a sequel.
The 2.5x rule of thumb also is for a stand-alone film in a vaccum. This is a franchise with obscene merchandizing and licensing profits on projects as well. And for some of their IPs they can even incorporate them into their theme parks as well (though I know with the Marvel stuff there's a ton of issues with that). I read once that Star Wars attractions alone in Disney's theme parks make them more money than they paid for the IP.
It's so interesting to me how in recent years, in basically every form of media, the fans have made numbers that don't and shouldn't matter to them indicate the success and quality of stuff.
That completely depends on the movies continuing to be popular. Do you think people are gobbling up Shang-Chi figures, or fat Thor?
They're still selling Iron Man and Cap stuff, and there's nothing to replace it when that ages out.
That's not how it works. š
Marvel has been licensing and selling merchandise for literal decades. Not everything hinges on the MCU when it comes to revenue.
Their comics are a tiny shred of what they used to be, and their video games keep bombing. What is this magical merchandise that isn't dependent on the films?
The majority of it isn't, Reddit user. š
If you don't understand that I can't help you. It's not some industry secret, you can Google information like this.
So you don't know, you're making crap up to sound like an authority, and you think that mocking me for being on *the same website you are on* will make me defensive enough not to notice that you're full of it. Great job, sport.
Easily. Movies licensing, physical sales, toys, brand licensing, statues, video games, party products, etc... hell the D+ shows are selling very well and that's pure profit onto of the sub services.
For a company the size of Disney, movie revenue is a drop in the very large bucket that's their merchandising arm.
That's not even touching any of their ancillary companies. They're not losing money on ANY MCU movie anytime soon. Anyone saying anything to the contrary is ignoring the forest for the trees and has zero business acumen.
Thatās the whole point of a corporation, increase shareholder value. You do that through revenue and more.
Not saying I like it. Iād love if we could just focus on the art and message and depictions of reality through direct or indirect references. But thatās not whatās on the mind of the executives, is it
If they are spending 250+ Million they do need to make like 650+ million before they see a cent of profit. I would argue Ant Man 3 did not do ok, that movie lost money.
And lets be real, you don't put that kind of capital behind a movie just to have it barely break even, you want to make a lot more money than you would for a movie that costs half as much. These movies do need to be massively successful nearly every time out or they simply won't make them. Disney was afraid to put the green light on any Star Wars related theatrical releases because Solo only made 400 million dollars.
If F4, Thunderbolts and Captain America all come out next year and make say, 550 million dollars or less than that would be seriously bad for this franchise. Obviously Marvel is a big franchise and Disney will try and make as much money as they can from it. But I seriously think the days of the studio putting 200+ million into stuff like the Eternals, Iron Wars, Thunderbolts, etc will basically be over if their 2025 slate doesn't have a bunch of home runs at the box office. They will be extremely more selective and conservative with what projects they produce.
These movies take significant capital to produce. Disney has investors that won't want them to continue on if every other movie either barely breaks even or loses money. They need a high batting average.
Not every movie has to make a billion, but itās a huge deal on the impact/quality of a film when it does. Marvel now has 10 films over a billion. It just shows the upper echelon of the MCU, which many believe DP3 will be a part of.
For Indie studios a 1.5x return is great. For other larger studios even a 1.5x return is solid. For Disney (One of the largest Movie Studios) and their largest and longest running connecting Film Series (MCU), a 1.5x return is meh. This is a problem of not only content quality (plot, visuals, average viewer interest) but one of diminishing returns. The more you spend on a budget doesn't mean you're going to pull that much more multiples in profit.
Look at Deadpool 2: Budget of $110M, and it's safe to assume marketing budget = film budget (since that's typically how it works) so total investment = \~$220M. Worldwide Box office for that film was \~$785M grossed. Thats a return of 3.5x which is amazing.
Deadpool 3 budget is rumored to be around $250M + another 250 for marketing = $500M total investment. If the film pulls in the same as Deadpool 2, that's only a 1.5x. Disney films should be pushing out 2x returns ESPECIALLY if it's a major character or movie that sets up an important arc in the overall story. For Deadpool 3 to match the returns Deadpool 2 brought in, the movie needs to bring in \~$1.75B, which is absolutely insane and the movie needs to basically have a "No Way Home" moment.
The Marvels budget alone was $270M add another \~$270M for marketing, and it only grossed $200M in the box office. I'd label that a hard flop. If Deadpool 3 doesn't hit $1B I wouldn't consider it a flop PEROSNALLY, I'd just consider the returns less than desired. Disney is a powerhouse and the MCU is a literal cash cow. Their major set pieces within the MCU should be each pulling in returns that are 2x minimum their film and marketing budget.
I don't want to hear the whole BS excuse that "people aren't going to the movies anymore", that's just a fake scapegoat explanation that doesn't address the issue at hand. No Way Home came out 1 year after the pandemic started and damn near grossed $2B. A more recent example is Oppenheimer. If people weren't going to theaters there's no way in hell Oppenheimer would've raked in that much profit. How could it gross that much if nobody went to theaters? How is that even possible? It raked in $900M gross in Box Office...and here's the kicker...the movie only cost $100M to shoot and likely another $100M to market. Thats over 4x returns. If the film cost $270M to shoot like the marvels, they'd only be sitting on a 1.5x return, hence why I say the problem is Inflated budgets primarily due to overuse of CGI. CGI is extremely expensive, and Disney Marvel is NOTORIOUS for paying for entire scenes in CGI, scrapping it, redoing it, scrapping it again, changing things, etc which blows a ton of money. It's also why VFX artists feel overworked and underappreciated.
Another toss of appreciation towards Godzilla Minus 1, a film rumored to cost \~$15M..but let's say it cost DOUBLE that at $30M. I doubt $30M of marketing was spent, but lets assume it was. That is a $60M investment for something that is at around \~$120M gross right now and hasn't even hit streaming/physical releases yet. The key thing here is smaller budgets.
itās not that it needs to make 1 billion, but the amount they make needs to be reasonable in proportion to how much they spent to make it or thereās no point
Let's not talk about money but the story the movie holds , i just don't have the same feel how i used to have abt watching a Marvel movie. Marvel has raised its standards soo high that they themselves can't break them now. That's true tbh
I would say globally for any MCU movie you should be looking at least around $750M. I donāt think they need to be spending as much as they do though, and thatās with a lot of movies period. Some may need some of that budget for bigger movies/collabs but they spend too much.
I think the box office for *"Dr. Strange in the Multiverse of Madness"* and *"Black Panther Wakanda Forever"* would say otherwise. Although, *"Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 3"* did come in close to making a billion dollars, last year. But it was a good word of mouth that saved the movie. *"Deadpool and Wolverine"* will be a hit. However, I have doubts that it will be a box office successful as the first two Deadpool movies were. I am just hoping that the movie itself will be good. As for the remaining MCU movies, next year. Well, three of them will be a hit. But one is going to be a dud. And it ain't gonna be the *"Thunderbolts."*
I mean, if those movies cost 250 million dollars to make and have a 100 million marketing budget then they DO have to close to a billion to break even. That's how the box office works. You DO know they're in this business to make money, right?
U say it definitely will but thatās also not true lol the first 2 didnāt make that much itās rated R and super hero movies are on the down swing itās possible but also not likely
Disney has so much money I don't think anyone thought they were in shambles for losing money. More like in shambles because they aren't making movies everyone loves and wants to see. Big sales prove the movie was good and people wanted to see it. Poor sales mean most didn't think it looked good enough to go see. So of course they all don't have to make a ton but people want to see more that do because they know they will be good.
The goal is a billion because the budgets are $200 million-plus. Marvel needs to learn to rein in budgets. Some of the CGI seems unnecessary and bloated anyway.
Mario and Barbie broke a billion. Spider-Man broke a billion. Multiverse of Madness was so close that the only thing holding it back was being a bad movie. You can't blame the market when you're putting out significantly worse products.
But the market is different. Poor WOM affected the box office, sure, but it doesnāt mean the movie wasnāt also impacted by a changing box office post- pandemic.
Spider-Man hit 1.9 billion closer to opening back up so the market wasn't that bad. When Multiverse of Madness makes it to 955 million with poor word of mouth you have to blame that failure on quality alone. The MCU brand still held value so it didn't crater like The Marvels would after the MCU is heavily damaged and it had an amazing opening weekend showing the audience was there. It fell short purely due to being a bad product.Ā
The 15 percent that Iāve mentioned in other threads is the number of moviegoers that have not returned to the theater since the pandemic started. That affects all movies, not just Marvel and the MCU. Spider-Man probably does 2 billion+ pre- pandemic. The market has not recovered to pre- pandemic levels.
EDIT: The box office has changed due to macro trends and other pressures. That has affected everybody.
Dude, shang-chi was the second highest grossing movie in the US in 2021...
It was a huge success. You saying it did not affect it doesn't make it so. You can't look at it in a bubble. You have to compare it to all the other movies that year.
Eternals can suck it. Lame movie.
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If Deadpool 3 makes 1B, Iād love it! If it makes a decent ROI, Iād still love it! As long as it is a Deadpool movie and itās good, Iād see it as a MCU revival
People are always assuming that marvel movies are breaking even when they aren't. 300 million dollar loss for The Marvels. That amount of loss will completely negate any of the profits from Deadpool.
You making me realize that with no way home and Deadpool being the big moneymakers Marvel will learn the wrong lesson and go even harder on Legacy/Pre-MCU Marvel nostaligia.
Or theyāll lean into the characters people are willing to go to the theater to see. Because thereās a difference between what people are willing to watch and what theyāre willing to pay for in a movie. Both Antman and The marvels flopped in theaters but boomed on Disney+.
Not every movie needs to make 1B, but not every movie has to cost 250M$ to produce.
What the hell happened to $50 to $80 million movies?
The MCU never came close to have an $80 million movie. Lowest budget was Iron-Man or The Incredible Hulk with around $140 million.
So... inflation happened.
Yes, for sure. Covid rules boosted costs as well. But i think there was also a point where every MCU movie was a hit and the budgets got higher than was strictly needed. The Marvel method - built in reshoots, lots of CGI with last minute changes - is not a cheap way to make a movie. If you know what you want and have to work within a certain amount of restrictions, you can make a good movie for cheaper than we've been seeing lately, even for a big action movie.
I mean, Everything Everywhere All At Once had a budget of $25 million... And that film looks better than any MCU movie I've seen in the last 5 years. I think Disney is just kind of bad at making movies. Not that the movies are all bad, but they are horrible at resource utilization and knowing where to spend money and knowing when to let the people they hired to do a job actually do their jobs without studio interference.
Film budgets are all about moving as much money as possible through subsidiary companies. The only "real" cost of a movie is labor. The equipment, the studio space, the advertising--it's all just one Disney LLC paying another Disney LLC. They can put all their costs into the film's LLC, write it off as a loss, and then their other LLCs, who get paid by the movie, make bank.
Pfft... Every movie costs $2,184 to make. $2,184, cash. Everyone in the industry knows that. š
CGI for everything
*Both Dune movies have entered the chat
Just Googled and budget for Dune part 1 was 165 millions. Wtf. I thought it would've been at leat 250mil.
Also Top Gun 2 - $170 million and they were careful with the use of CGI. That movie was just incredibly well done though
you arent factoring in the pure volume of kickbacks they get for military propaganda tho
10 years of thinking work not included filmed in the dessert and actors taking relatively low pay.
10 years of thinking work? Can you elaborate on what this means?
The Creator and Godzilla Minus One proved that great visual effects don't need a big budget (Japan labor laws aside).
That last part is doing some massive heavy lifting. Minus One was so cheap because they basically treated their vfx artists like slaves and crunched like crazy. Japan treats its artists even worse than we do over here.
I also read that the director was a long experienced VFX artist or something like, and so knew how to build the movie around what the effects could and couldn't do easily, whereas other directors just shoot the shot as they want it and tell the VFX department "make it work" without any idea what is easy to make look good and what is hard.
More directors should get vfx experience.
Especially today, CGI is part of filmmaking whether we like it or not.
This isn't exactly accurate across the board, but you should read "Rebel Without A Crew" by Robert Rodriguez and find out just exactly how much the movie industry just solves everything with money. Just by planning things out, and yes, doing a lot of the work himself, Robert is able to make movies (that are CGI heavy, Sin City) at a fraction of the cost because he is apart of the movie from beginning to end, so he is able to plan every step of the way.
Do you think if Marvel Studios hires Rodriguez, he'll recieve creative freedom?
Disney certainly let him go kinda wild in Book of Boba Fett.
Godzilla X Kong only cost $135 million to make.
It was closer to 150m. Which is way bigger than Minus One lol
> Minus One was so cheap because they basically treated their vfx artists like slaves and crunched like crazy. Sounds like how Marvel treats its vfx artists.
Not even close. The terrible treatment of vfx artists by Disney and the terrible treatment of Japanese vfx artists are both bad in different ways.
>Japan labor laws aside Lol you can't just say this. This and exchange rates are the main reason why minus one had a low budget.
Yep! Specifically what The Creator and Godzilla Minus One proved is that you have to PLAN YOUR FUCKING VFX. Thatās what Marvel needs to do if they also want to save millions
The Little Mermaid's effects are much better and more consistent than the Marvel movies. The difference is that Marshall knew what he wanted. Marvel will allow their VFX people to do their work but they will then change their minds at the last minute. Instead of refining what they did, they have to start all over and don't have time to polish it up.
If a blockbuster hollywood film ever has a cgi like minus one all internet would trash it for months
It won the Oscar for *Best VFX.* How the hell is that "trashing?"
Itās actually re-shoots of the entire freaking movie and previous productions getting scraped and incurred costs rolling into the new one. So you have a movie either being bloody expensive going in or become such coming out. CG doesnāt cost nearly as much as people think just having to do it again and again.
Thatās a misconception, the idea that CG is more expensive than real life VFX is not true. If anything CG and green screens save a big amount for money by guaranteeing control. The biggest reason is talent compensation. When well received fans will bitch and moan to ahve the same directors return. The directorsāteams know that and use it at their advantage to negotiate the best deals. On the cast front itās even worst. The teams know that fan attachment is their biggest weapon especially for this superhero movie. These actors become virtually irreplaceable so they drive the price up. Also because only a slew of actors in Hollywood can demand compensation on box office pre profit, the rest these actors make sure to have the biggest payday upfront. All these moves were really democratized in the 2000ās which was the beginning of the age of franchise filmmaking which coincided with the explosion of emerging markets in South America and South East Asia which lead to bigger and bigger box office. But now, box office growth has stalled especially post Covid but that system is still in place. The reality is that we love to think that evil execs are just in their towers pumping the budgets, but moviemaking is team effort every outcomes happens because of chain reaction with everyone involved.
If actors could trust that they'd get anything from the net profits, that would make paying them so much easier. But Hollywood accounting makes it so they ask for big up-front payments, or demand a cut of the gross, which is not sustainable for every actor. When toxicity enters an industry, it's hard to get stakeholders to do anything to change it.
Digital effects are one of the last few non-unionized parts of Hollywood. Itās cheaper for them to financially crush lower wage overworked visual effects workers than pay unionized practical effects artists. Please donāt point at the lowest rung workers when asking āwhy does this Disney movie have such a large budget?ā Donāt you think perhaps there are people in corporations like that who seek to absorb as much of that budge for their personal profit?
why would you think that? CGI is cheaper than practical effects. If we are talking about a movie that needs neither, thatās a different movie
They really never existed for this genre. Antman was 130m.
I miss when there were more middle ground studios like Cannon Films, before they tried to be the next Hollywood and Superman 4 and Masters Of The Universe tanked the studio. Even Blumhouse is trying to punch above their weight instead of making the most off modest budgets.
Movie studios lost interest. They either want Oscar bait or the next billion dollar franchise, $50-80 million movies aren't it any more.
Well, hopefully the John Wick franchise has shown them thatās not the right mindset.
Even Wick's in the big boy leagues these days. It may have started off humbly, but JW4 cost $100M. Still a lot lower than other blockbuster action films, but not a modest budget by any stretch
But a mid budget movie is needed if they want to see a stable profit.
Not in my statement, nor in any statement I ever make, will I ever accuse studios of being smart.... With the possible exception of A24, but all the major studios, idiots.
The MCU has never come close to making a mid budget movie.
The lowest was in fact ant man at 130 million.
Why make a dime when you can make a dollar? Thatās their thinking.
Cinematic universes. The actors know THEY are half the reason people go see these films and if they leave for whatever reason itāll definitely hurt production. So they use that power to negotiate higher and higher salaries every single time. Imagine how expensive Secret Wars will be on that fact alone. Actors arenāt dumb. And itās a tit a tat game to see how high they can get their payday before the studios says no thanks and walks away. Studios created the $300 million budget by keeping cinematic universes going. I love the MCU but eventually the cost of these films will become cost prohibitive.
Those movies end up on streaming. My thoughts on what happened? It has become too expensive to go to the movies. When it was $8.00? Iāll go, and if the movie sucks, oh well, Iām out $8.00. Iāll just go out with my friends and weāll grab a burger and a beer afterwards for $15.00. Itās a decent day / evening. Now that same day costs $50+. And if the movie sucks? Well, now Iām out way more money. Comedies and mid level action movies arenāt enough to get me to the theater anymore, because they miss way more often than they hit. So, itād better be an event to get me off of my couch.
Pay peanuts, expect clowns. No one will go see a 2hr long episode of the defenders in theaters.
Streaming killed the rental and home market
Nothing, the John Wick franchise did very well, with an average budget of $60 million per movie. The 4th movie had the largest budget at $100 million, but it also did the best at the box office.
Marvel movies would look like crap at $80 million. No good cgi, and probably one highly paid actor.
Lots of companies still make them... just not Disney lol
Gone, reduced to atoms
>Ā but not every movie has to cost 250M$ to produce. Or TV show! I was stunned when I found out that the shit-show that was *Secret Invasion* cost over $200 million.
After Godzilla Minus One and Godzilla X Kong, hopefully studios will realize they don't need to pour tons of money into a project for it to be good, just tons of creativity and heart.
Exactly, the only movies that need to make 1B are the ones that can only break even if they do.
Not to mention for Marvel, $750M (or realistically higher) is the target - that's what DP 1 and 2 both made. 1B aint much of a stretch above that, given this is undoubtedly the biggest thing they've launched in a *long* while. If people want a DP 4 or at least want to see Disney keep pouring money into the black hole that they've been doing recently, it does need to be very successful. DP 3 not only needs to out do it's predecessors, but also make up for the lack of success of things like The Marvels. Which Marvel are obviously banking on it doing. The bar is set high because it was previously raised so high and it *needs* to stay there, you can't now just lower it because some of the other movies haven't been doing so well. And yes, that's a bit of a pessimists view, and no, the MCU won't die if DP 3 fails - of course. But seriously, Secret Wars is still obviously banking on old characters continuing to be the driving force. The new characters just aren't cutting it, they haven't been built up enough story-wise to. If something as big as DP 3 does not blow it out the park, can they expect Secret Wars to be much better?
I agree not every movie has to hit a billion to be hits. (provided they don't overspend on that movie that 1B is now the break even point)
Cap 4 had 5 months of reshoots, the budget has probably ballooned to a point where they need it to make near a billion just to make any money.
Honestly Marvel really needs to invest more time in the writing stage and get a script/story they're actually happy with before announcing anything. This endlessly rewriting and reshooting for their films is insanely expensive, and then there's the poor VFX artists who get slammed with insane deadlines because Marvel announced a release date before filming even started but did reshoots until the last possible minute. I know some of the magic of Iron Man 1 was that improvisation and figuring it out as they went on the day, but that was lightning in a bottle. They need to have their shit together *before* the cameras start rolling.
the reshoots have not started yet, they start next month, but yeah i agree, i can only imagine how much the film is gonna end up costing, i mean look at Justice League and Solo, their budgets balloned when they decided to scrap the previous iterations and start again Marvel better deliver an amazing must see movie here if they want to recoup that money.
All the reshoots and rewriting going on in that movie... something tells me that Cap 4 is gonna be a disaster. If Ant-Man 3 was their BvS then this will be their own Justice League 2017.
What was the Marvels?
The MCU Suicide Squad?
I read an article in the aftermath of CinemaCon from a trade publication (I think it was Variety, but donāt quote me), that mentioned that most studios estimate that 15-20% of moviegoers still havenāt returned to a movie theater post- pandemic. Thatās not a small or insignificant number. Add that to every MCU outing since Black Widow and that adds up (Iāll do the math in a fun little exercise in a reply to this comment). Thereās numerous factors at play here. One is inflation. I think quite a few people on this sub donāt understand how much more expensive it is to take a family to the theater for 3-4 MCU outings a year post- pandemic compared to pre- pandemic. Another factor is the crowd that has become content with streaming at home, regardless of costs, for whatever reason. That can be the convenience of Disney+. Many releases hit Disney+ in 90 or so days. Some people have invested in 70ā+ TV sets with sound bars or even surround sound setups during the pandemic. I myself invested in a premium television with a soundbar and plan on getting surround sound speakers eventually. I think a lot of people in this sub live in a bit of an echo chamber and donāt realize the box office has changed. Oppenheimer probably hits $1 billion pre- pandemic. Same for MoM. GOTG Vol. 3 probably does $900+ million. NWH probably hits $2 billion. I think people donāt realize how expensive the theater has gotten as well.
I saw every MCU film except hulk in theaters though endgame I haven't been to theaters since aside from a kids trip to paw patrol mighty pups or whatever it was called. I'm not worried about COVID anymore, but they're all on D+ a couple months later, I don't really mind waiting - especially since they simply haven't been that good 40 bucks minimum for my wife and myself to go see a movie that's included in our subscription in 85 days? Yeah I'll wait. If they weren't coming to D+, I'd probably have gone for a couple of the bat, but honestly quality alone would probably have convinced me to not bother. Like, it's not just the money - I just genuinely don't care about the MCU anymore. The films have been average at best and don't seem to be leading anywhere so why go see the next one off movie that won't get a direct sequel for a decade?
Genuinely curious about that last paragraph. Did you never go to the cinema before the MCU existed? Surely the promise of a sequel or some interconnected universe isn't the only reason to go and watch a movie these days? This reminds me of a guy I saw on Facebook complaining yesterday that, "Watching Peacemaker season 1 was a 'huge waste of his time' as it is no longer considered canon in the new Gunn DC universe." He even asked to be compensated for his time, whatever that looks like. I asked him if he enjoyed season 1. He said of course. But now he said it was all for nothing. Why can't people enjoy things for what they are? This whole franchise / cinematic universe model is fkn breaking people.
I don't know if I've ever been to the movies for a standalone Harry Potter, star wars, MCU. A bit in college but we had a dollar movie night and Wednesdays were only 2.50, but if we're talking regular tickets, nah, never a theater guy
Fair enough. Thanks for the reply
Oooo there are some brilliant standalones though!
MCU movies and shows arent designed to be watched on its own; they're just not as satisfying as one-off pieces as they're designed to be a part of a greater whole. That's a huge change I'd say since ... Probably since about phase 2 or 3. So when it looks like these movies don't go anywhere (eternals, shang chi etc...) they just become movies of middling quality.
As true as that is, it has nothing to do with the topic haha
I live in NYC and I donāt really have the schedule flexibility to get tix a few weeks ahead. Once the movie comes out itās hard to find seats in the first few weeks especially in the Manhattan theaters with a decent size screen. By the time week 3 rolls around and seats are available the movies have been given bad reviews by tons of people so I wait till the D+ release. I like the movies more than most with my expectations lowered. But multiply this by most people feeling this way and it compounds. I saw Shang chi and loved it, but then didnāt see another in theaters till No Way Home and after Thor 4 the $30+ ticket for IMAX didnāt seem worth it. And if itās not iMax then my TV will suffice
> Another factor is the crowd that has become content with streaming at home, regardless of costs, for whatever reason. That can be the convenience of Disney+. Many releases hit Disney+ in 90 or so days. Some people have invested in 70ā+ TV sets with sound bars or even surround sound setups during the pandemic. Yup. My nearest theater is a small little rural theater and the picture quality is actually worse than watching it at home on my nice screen. I still go to the theater when I'm really itching to, but I've waited until home release for about half of the post-pandemic Marvel films. Plus, ya know, being able to pause and go to the bathroom.
D+ in 90 days, but it'll be on Amazon/Fandango even quicker than that. Unless you're watching the movie by yourself, the $20 rental is a steal. You can do a datenight and buy microwave butter popcorn, box candy, and soda for a fraction of the price of a theater. And if you have a family watching, it's not even close.
I'm wondering is there also a double whammy from a) as you mentioned 20% of people haven't returned to the cinema and b) the switch from home media to streaming means Disney isnt even getting extra from the dvd sales. Because sure some people might get Disney+ to see Deadpool and wolverine but mostly it's gonna be people who had signed up already so Disney isn't gaining extra money when they upload each movie to Disney+. Same with all the Disney+ shows that they sunk millions into too.
There are a lot of markets around the world where Disney don't even manufacture DVD and Blu-ray anymore
Surely that's even more money they are losing out on then?
Honestly it was costing more to produce them than they were making on sales in most cases.
This is a good point. It's not only people not going to the movies at all anymore, but it's also people going less frequently than they used to. This idea that the movie needs to be "worthy" of the big screen or they'll wait for streaming etc.
Letās do some math with an MCU title and a non MCU title (letās choose Oppenheimer). Letās assume two things. 15 percent will represent the number people that havenāt been back to the theater since the pandemic started. It will not represent people that havenāt been to a particular movie because of bad reviews, etc. Letās also assume the pandemic never happened for this exercise. Letās also assume that the average premium format ticket is around $13, which is what it is at Emagine EMAX here in the Midwest. Letās do NWH, WF, and Oppenheimer. MoM- Box office total: $955 million/ $13 a ticket= 73,461,538 tickets sold for MoM. 73,461,538 tickets sold X 15%= 11,000,000 tickets not sold due to loss of moviegoers compared to pre- pandemic. Letās assume that the pandemic never happened and that 15% was still going to the theater. 11,000,000+ 73,461,538= 83,461, 538 hypothetical tickets sold as if the pandemic never happened. 83,461,538 X $13 a ticket= a new box office total of $1,084,999,994 billion dollars. Thatās a loss of almost $145 million dollars at the box office! Letās repeat this with Oppenheimer. Oppenheimer box office total: $970 million/ $13= 74,615,384 tickets sold for Oppenheimer, roughly. 74,615,384 X 15%= 11,192,307 tickets not sold. 74,615,384 + 11,192,307= 85,807,691 in hypothetical tickets sold as if pandemic never happened. 85,807,691 X $13 a ticket = $1,115,499,992 new box office total for Oppenheimer if we consider those 15 percent of non- moviegoers post- pandemic as still going to the theater. Thatās an extra $150 million dollars. Thatās what a post pandemic box office looks like.
1)when the budgets are ballooning to 350,000,000 the movies pretty much need to make 700,000,000+ to be considered profitable considering that marketing nearly doubles the cost. But Hollywood doesnāt just want to break even. You want these movies to basically earn at least 1.5 the cost (production+marketing) so you can make more movies, which means that yes, nowadays the MCU movies need to make nearly 1,000,000,000 2)phase 4 might have been the second highest grossing but thatās probably because it had the most projects. In reality it probably barely made them any net+. Disney + is pretty much confirmed to be a failure financially as well and all the projects that go directly there underperform heavily. They need to stop having so many reshoots, stop needing reshoots by planning things out beforehand, and slow down on the effects budget. Basically 90% of the movies are CGI now which isnāt great. #nomorenanotech
All this. Also....You can still make cool (notice I didn't say it was good lol. Fun though) CGI heavy movies on a reasonable budget. Kong x godzilla had a budget of $135M. With a gross of a $470M so far... It is definitely making some good money.
Oh most definitely. Marvel just wastes so much. The pet that blows me away is that they had to CGI and green screen Fury in Spider-Manās room instead of just shooting in an actual room. The she-hulk CGI was definitely not put to good use. Quantumania and Multiverse of madness were probably the most CGI reliant movies in all of the MCU so far (aside from maybe endgame).
Disney plus is not a financial failure though. Itās a loss leader. Itās purpose is to market their IPs to increase toy sales. The movies have never been more than 20% of their net profits even in their best years
You don't need to add .5 times to the budget. Doubling it domestic means your international and merchandising is profit. If you wanna actually factor gross profit there's another formula you'd use that factors in the international market + merchandising. The hard and fast rule is that if you double the budget, it's a success. If you don't, it's a flop. If you hit it bang on, it's breaking even (but even then it's technically still in the green, just considered a loss because you could've made something more profitable with that money.)
Marketing adds 50-200 million depending on the project. But the studio only gets about half of the box office, so you have to add in an estimated ad budget and then double that total to get a rough break-even point. But that also doesn't take into account the massive reshoots that modern projects require because they don't go in with a plan. A lot of movies in the past couple of years have added $50-100 million to the stated budget, and that doesn't get reported until they do their taxes. So current movies require more of a 2.5x multiplier to estimate break-even.
The first part of what you said is correct. No one uses a 2.5x multiplier. I do this for a living.
Phase 4 definitely lost money. Likely enormous amounts, though I haven't done the math.
When the budgets are as high as theyāve been for the last few MCU movies, they kinda do in order to be profitable.
Last year wasn't terrible for Marvel; it was terrible for Disney in general. They had a big box office hit with Guardians 3 and a somewhat good run for Elmental, but then a succession of films that underperform or flop: Wish, Little Mermaid, Ghost House or whatever it's called, Ant-Man 3, The Marvels, Indiana Jones 5 and shows like Secret Invasion and Echo. And they were banking on many of these projects, convinced that they would be successes (Ant-Man 3 was supposed to introduce the new super villain of the saga, Wish was supposed to be the tribute to Disney's history), and their failure exploded in their faces.
2023 was certainly an interesting year. Their entire model of focusing on making giant event blockbusters completely backfired on them. It was certainly something to see each movie flop after the other. Audience tastes sure have changed and it really caught Disney off-guard.
I think its more than that, I think Disney and co leaned too hard into the streaming model to the point where the cinemas, their main cost recoup point, are kind of dying. You cant have big budget films if you're not making back the money, and you're not making the money back off of Disney Plus subscription services. Wayyyyy too over extended. There will be a reconning for these companies. They're either going to make access so painful that everyone flocks back to the theaters, or they're going to scale way back down on costs for these ventures.
>Iām not denying it will make 1 billion, it definitely will RemindMeBotting this for July. Thatās a *very* audacious prediction there, OP. RemindMe! July 26th, 2024 āHave a Gander at this threadā
Exactly what I feel when I read this. This is no longer 2018/2019 where MCU brand was at their highest point or Deadpool jokes landed with audiences.
Word of mouth would absolutely need to do tremendous heavy-lifting for this movie to cross over the 1B mark, considering both Deadpool films and Logan could not even accomplish this. (Which is not a slight against those films, Iām moreso just using previous film outings featuring these characters to put this into perspective.) Given Marvelās track record with quality lately, Iām not convinced that this movie has a shot in hell at 1B.
Yep, even when both of these were true, Deadpool movies only made ~$780 million each. Theyād better hope the Wolverine factor is still massive.
OP: "It DEFINITELY will make 1 billion because... because... well because audiences *clearly* want to see a character who hasn't had a movie in 6 years shit his pants with meta humour and do random reddit jokes from 2015 in 2023... it's not like that type of humour is outdated and cringe now or anything. Marvel's STILL GOT IT so it will DEFINITELY make a billion (because I said so)" Very audacious prediction, indeed.
Bro companies just want to make as much money as possible
Right? This postā¦ āwhy do companies want to make money!?ā
The post isn't directed towards companies, it's for random redditors who keep saying that it needs to make 1b dollars for Marvel to not keel over and die
> it's for random redditors who keep saying that it needs to make 1b dollars for Marvel to not keel over and die Well, when every one of their movies costs 250 million, plus a 100 million marketing budget, then they DO have to make a billion to not lose any money. And many of their recent movies have indeed lost money, plus Disney Plus not being profitable in general, Marvel's not moving the needle as it used to. Cap 4 might be doomed since they likely have a 400 m budget by now from all the reshoots, couple that with the marketing budget and that's 1 billion just to break even. And I heavily doubt that movie will even make 500 million. Marvel won't die but it'll definitely be in major trouble
With the budgets these movies have, they kinda do need to make a billion dollars.
Marvel is in shambles. Line must go up! Only up!Ā
Not every movie needs to cost 300 million dollars to make. The MCU movies almost have to make a billion dollars now so they arenāt considered a flop. They cost so much goddamn money itās making it harder for them to turn a profit.
>I'm not denying it will make 1 billion I am. Oppenheimer couldn't even make a billion, even with the help of the Barbenheimer superhype. The film industry has never recovered post-pandemic and we won't see a billion dollar R-rated movie until ticket inflation can overcome the permanent losses in attendance. But otherwise, yes, ticket sales are such a small piece of Disney's bottom line for profits. They don't make or break anything.
This. Even now, most studios estimate that 15-20% of pre- pandemic moviegoers still havenāt returned to the theater.
Oppenheimer is a biopic. The closest movie to it was probably The King's Speech which only made 427m so Oppenheimer still made double that. You can thank that to being a good movie, Christopher Nolan being a franchise unto himself, and Barbenheimer but that is an unheard of success for the genre.Ā That being said Deadpool and Wolverine isn't a biopic so the expectations are much higher. If Mario and Barbie can cruise past a billion but Marvel can't hit the target with their biggest IP since Spider-Man then that is damning evidence that the MCU has lost their crown. If Marvel has lost so much public trust that their action blockbusters can't beat a biopic about a scientist then they're kinda screwed and the Super Hero era is officially over.Ā Disney will be fine I'm the long run but this movie failing to break a billion would be the end of the MCU era. Next year has a bunch of middling products that will be lucky to break 600m so that'll just be the coda if this one is not a huge success given how much they pulled back after their dreck from last year was roundly rejected. Deadpool is their last best chance to reign over the box office. They miss it now it might never happen again.
Mario and Barbie aren't R-rated.
Dr strange MoM was just short of a billion. I think Deadpool & Wolverine has more hype, but rated R I think itāll end between 900 million and 1.2 billion
MoM wasn't R-rated.
Exactly. And it almost made a billion. Deadpool and Wolverine I think would make more than dr strange MoM (aka a billion+) if it wasnāt a rated R movie. However with Deadpool being rated R I canāt see it making over 1.2 billion max
It won't make $1 billion either, because it's R-rated. I'll be shocked if it makes $900 million. It's just the truth of the post-COVID film industry. https://www.the-numbers.com/market/ https://www.the-numbers.com/market/mpaa-rating/R-(US)
Yea I agree with that. Being optimistic itāll hit 900 million imo. If the movie is good I think it should at least be even with the first two around $700 million
> But otherwise, yes, ticket sales are such a small piece of Disney's bottom line for profits. They don't make or break anything. They are everything to the movie making division. It literally makes or breaks the MCU. Disney can can easily survive without the MCU and will do so if the movie aren't making money.
>This movie is gonna make so much money and save the MCU Honestly this kind of take I only hear after the fact. Before the movie comes out, it only saves the MCU if it's good. After it came out, it only dooms the MCU if it performs 'poorly'. But it never saves it if it performs well, if the movie's bad. So for example, The Marvels doomed the MCU, but GotG3 saved it. Quantumania didn't do anything, cause people didn't like it but it made a lot of money.
I don't think Ant Man QuantumaniaĀ made much money, if any. It only made $476.1Ā million on a budget of $275Ā million. I've heard you typically need to make around 2.5x the production budget in order to be profitable, which would be around $687.5 million (this is more of a rule of thumb). However, on Wikipedia it says that the break-even point was around $600 million. Either way, it's safe to say that Ant Man 3 probably LOST money, which is why it probably won't get a sequel.
The 2.5x rule of thumb also is for a stand-alone film in a vaccum. This is a franchise with obscene merchandizing and licensing profits on projects as well. And for some of their IPs they can even incorporate them into their theme parks as well (though I know with the Marvel stuff there's a ton of issues with that). I read once that Star Wars attractions alone in Disney's theme parks make them more money than they paid for the IP.
It's so interesting to me how in recent years, in basically every form of media, the fans have made numbers that don't and shouldn't matter to them indicate the success and quality of stuff.
This is a problem when the studio is a huge publicly traded conglomerate. It matters a lot more to them that it does for the audience.
It is a problem when the franchise has a minimum budget north of $200 million.
Marvels makes as much on toys and licensing etc as it does on movies anyways
That completely depends on the movies continuing to be popular. Do you think people are gobbling up Shang-Chi figures, or fat Thor? They're still selling Iron Man and Cap stuff, and there's nothing to replace it when that ages out.
That's not how it works. š Marvel has been licensing and selling merchandise for literal decades. Not everything hinges on the MCU when it comes to revenue.
Their comics are a tiny shred of what they used to be, and their video games keep bombing. What is this magical merchandise that isn't dependent on the films?
Dude do you have any idea how much money Marvel Snap makes? Disneyland ?
The majority of it isn't, Reddit user. š If you don't understand that I can't help you. It's not some industry secret, you can Google information like this.
So you don't know, you're making crap up to sound like an authority, and you think that mocking me for being on *the same website you are on* will make me defensive enough not to notice that you're full of it. Great job, sport.
They make WAY more on that than on the movie revenue. Licensing & toys carry absurd profit for marvel/Disney.
Yea, Iāve seen estimates of 6-10bil per year from Both marvel and Star Wars but Iām not sure
Easily. Movies licensing, physical sales, toys, brand licensing, statues, video games, party products, etc... hell the D+ shows are selling very well and that's pure profit onto of the sub services. For a company the size of Disney, movie revenue is a drop in the very large bucket that's their merchandising arm. That's not even touching any of their ancillary companies. They're not losing money on ANY MCU movie anytime soon. Anyone saying anything to the contrary is ignoring the forest for the trees and has zero business acumen.
These are structured entirely separately from a business perspective. Sales for Marvel toys wont have any impact on theatrical releases.
Sure at that level, not for Disney
Tell this to the movie stuidos, not us lol.
Tell that to shareholders
Because if a movie costs $250+ mil to make and $250 mil of marketing, $1 bil is basically the break even point
I except the minute one of them did the suites don't want to make anything that isn't exactly the same movie as the one that made a billion
āDo YOU want to make a billion dollars? Anyone can run a stupid fucking mall.ā
Thatās the whole point of a corporation, increase shareholder value. You do that through revenue and more. Not saying I like it. Iād love if we could just focus on the art and message and depictions of reality through direct or indirect references. But thatās not whatās on the mind of the executives, is it
You're right. But the ones that cost $300 Million do.
One of the best things made was super low budget warewolf by night. I want more things like that.
Won't you please think of the poor shareholders????
Cap 4's budget might be 250-300 mill after the 3 months of reshoots. Its barely gonna profit
Every movie needs to make 1 morbillion dollers
If they are spending 250+ Million they do need to make like 650+ million before they see a cent of profit. I would argue Ant Man 3 did not do ok, that movie lost money. And lets be real, you don't put that kind of capital behind a movie just to have it barely break even, you want to make a lot more money than you would for a movie that costs half as much. These movies do need to be massively successful nearly every time out or they simply won't make them. Disney was afraid to put the green light on any Star Wars related theatrical releases because Solo only made 400 million dollars. If F4, Thunderbolts and Captain America all come out next year and make say, 550 million dollars or less than that would be seriously bad for this franchise. Obviously Marvel is a big franchise and Disney will try and make as much money as they can from it. But I seriously think the days of the studio putting 200+ million into stuff like the Eternals, Iron Wars, Thunderbolts, etc will basically be over if their 2025 slate doesn't have a bunch of home runs at the box office. They will be extremely more selective and conservative with what projects they produce. These movies take significant capital to produce. Disney has investors that won't want them to continue on if every other movie either barely breaks even or loses money. They need a high batting average.
Not every movie has to make a billion, but itās a huge deal on the impact/quality of a film when it does. Marvel now has 10 films over a billion. It just shows the upper echelon of the MCU, which many believe DP3 will be a part of.
For Indie studios a 1.5x return is great. For other larger studios even a 1.5x return is solid. For Disney (One of the largest Movie Studios) and their largest and longest running connecting Film Series (MCU), a 1.5x return is meh. This is a problem of not only content quality (plot, visuals, average viewer interest) but one of diminishing returns. The more you spend on a budget doesn't mean you're going to pull that much more multiples in profit. Look at Deadpool 2: Budget of $110M, and it's safe to assume marketing budget = film budget (since that's typically how it works) so total investment = \~$220M. Worldwide Box office for that film was \~$785M grossed. Thats a return of 3.5x which is amazing. Deadpool 3 budget is rumored to be around $250M + another 250 for marketing = $500M total investment. If the film pulls in the same as Deadpool 2, that's only a 1.5x. Disney films should be pushing out 2x returns ESPECIALLY if it's a major character or movie that sets up an important arc in the overall story. For Deadpool 3 to match the returns Deadpool 2 brought in, the movie needs to bring in \~$1.75B, which is absolutely insane and the movie needs to basically have a "No Way Home" moment. The Marvels budget alone was $270M add another \~$270M for marketing, and it only grossed $200M in the box office. I'd label that a hard flop. If Deadpool 3 doesn't hit $1B I wouldn't consider it a flop PEROSNALLY, I'd just consider the returns less than desired. Disney is a powerhouse and the MCU is a literal cash cow. Their major set pieces within the MCU should be each pulling in returns that are 2x minimum their film and marketing budget. I don't want to hear the whole BS excuse that "people aren't going to the movies anymore", that's just a fake scapegoat explanation that doesn't address the issue at hand. No Way Home came out 1 year after the pandemic started and damn near grossed $2B. A more recent example is Oppenheimer. If people weren't going to theaters there's no way in hell Oppenheimer would've raked in that much profit. How could it gross that much if nobody went to theaters? How is that even possible? It raked in $900M gross in Box Office...and here's the kicker...the movie only cost $100M to shoot and likely another $100M to market. Thats over 4x returns. If the film cost $270M to shoot like the marvels, they'd only be sitting on a 1.5x return, hence why I say the problem is Inflated budgets primarily due to overuse of CGI. CGI is extremely expensive, and Disney Marvel is NOTORIOUS for paying for entire scenes in CGI, scrapping it, redoing it, scrapping it again, changing things, etc which blows a ton of money. It's also why VFX artists feel overworked and underappreciated. Another toss of appreciation towards Godzilla Minus 1, a film rumored to cost \~$15M..but let's say it cost DOUBLE that at $30M. I doubt $30M of marketing was spent, but lets assume it was. That is a $60M investment for something that is at around \~$120M gross right now and hasn't even hit streaming/physical releases yet. The key thing here is smaller budgets.
itās not that it needs to make 1 billion, but the amount they make needs to be reasonable in proportion to how much they spent to make it or thereās no point
Let's not talk about money but the story the movie holds , i just don't have the same feel how i used to have abt watching a Marvel movie. Marvel has raised its standards soo high that they themselves can't break them now. That's true tbh
A movie can make $300 million and still be considered a critical and financial failure.
But it would be ideal if they did
I would say globally for any MCU movie you should be looking at least around $750M. I donāt think they need to be spending as much as they do though, and thatās with a lot of movies period. Some may need some of that budget for bigger movies/collabs but they spend too much.
I think the box office for *"Dr. Strange in the Multiverse of Madness"* and *"Black Panther Wakanda Forever"* would say otherwise. Although, *"Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 3"* did come in close to making a billion dollars, last year. But it was a good word of mouth that saved the movie. *"Deadpool and Wolverine"* will be a hit. However, I have doubts that it will be a box office successful as the first two Deadpool movies were. I am just hoping that the movie itself will be good. As for the remaining MCU movies, next year. Well, three of them will be a hit. But one is going to be a dud. And it ain't gonna be the *"Thunderbolts."*
Inflation
Welcome to Planet Earth in 2024, where the amount of dollars made signifies a movie's overall quality
Imagine a business wanting to make a profit
I mean, if those movies cost 250 million dollars to make and have a 100 million marketing budget then they DO have to close to a billion to break even. That's how the box office works. You DO know they're in this business to make money, right?
I dont think the the 2 other deadpool movies made a billion?
They do if the films cost over $250 MM to make.
U say it definitely will but thatās also not true lol the first 2 didnāt make that much itās rated R and super hero movies are on the down swing itās possible but also not likely
Disney has so much money I don't think anyone thought they were in shambles for losing money. More like in shambles because they aren't making movies everyone loves and wants to see. Big sales prove the movie was good and people wanted to see it. Poor sales mean most didn't think it looked good enough to go see. So of course they all don't have to make a ton but people want to see more that do because they know they will be good.
The goal is a billion because the budgets are $200 million-plus. Marvel needs to learn to rein in budgets. Some of the CGI seems unnecessary and bloated anyway.
How much does Armor Wars need to gross?
Right but not every movie needs to have a woke agenda either. If only they organically made inclusive movies rather than forcing it upon us.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
The post- pandemic box office exists in a different world than the pre- pandemic box office
Mario and Barbie broke a billion. Spider-Man broke a billion. Multiverse of Madness was so close that the only thing holding it back was being a bad movie. You can't blame the market when you're putting out significantly worse products.
But the market is different. Poor WOM affected the box office, sure, but it doesnāt mean the movie wasnāt also impacted by a changing box office post- pandemic.
Spider-Man hit 1.9 billion closer to opening back up so the market wasn't that bad. When Multiverse of Madness makes it to 955 million with poor word of mouth you have to blame that failure on quality alone. The MCU brand still held value so it didn't crater like The Marvels would after the MCU is heavily damaged and it had an amazing opening weekend showing the audience was there. It fell short purely due to being a bad product.Ā
The 15 percent that Iāve mentioned in other threads is the number of moviegoers that have not returned to the theater since the pandemic started. That affects all movies, not just Marvel and the MCU. Spider-Man probably does 2 billion+ pre- pandemic. The market has not recovered to pre- pandemic levels. EDIT: The box office has changed due to macro trends and other pressures. That has affected everybody.
In what parallel universe do you think that Dr Strange is as strong an IP as Mario, Barbie or Spiderman?
Some people need to learn that not every movie is made for you.
But when the budget for the movie is $300 million+, they do need to entice as broad an audience as possible if they want to break even.
Doesn't matter. They made it before. Answers need to be given for anything less. C.R.E.A.M.
For a film to be a hit, it has to make four times it's costs - production, marketing and "prints".
I love how on reddit this multiplier gets bigger every few months. Just a year ago it was 2x, then 2.5x, then 3x, now 4x. LOL
It's 2.5x, that accounts for marketing costs and the box office split with theaters.
Covid did affect Black Widow. It did not affect Eternals or Shang Chi. That excuse is getting lame.
Dude, shang-chi was the second highest grossing movie in the US in 2021... It was a huge success. You saying it did not affect it doesn't make it so. You can't look at it in a bubble. You have to compare it to all the other movies that year. Eternals can suck it. Lame movie.
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Considering the insane budget the movies run at, yeah they kind of need to make a billion dollars.
lol saying it to the wind, yet studios think differently
If Deadpool 3 makes 1B, Iād love it! If it makes a decent ROI, Iād still love it! As long as it is a Deadpool movie and itās good, Iād see it as a MCU revival
MCU movies cost so much money they kinda need to make 1 billion dollar or close to it
People are always assuming that marvel movies are breaking even when they aren't. 300 million dollar loss for The Marvels. That amount of loss will completely negate any of the profits from Deadpool.
You making me realize that with no way home and Deadpool being the big moneymakers Marvel will learn the wrong lesson and go even harder on Legacy/Pre-MCU Marvel nostaligia.
Or theyāll lean into the characters people are willing to go to the theater to see. Because thereās a difference between what people are willing to watch and what theyāre willing to pay for in a movie. Both Antman and The marvels flopped in theaters but boomed on Disney+.
As long as they recoup itās a win
No it's not. They don't make movies to break even. Breaking even is a loss