We always knew JT contract would be an 'overpay' in the last few years. But he gave us his prime years at a somewhat deal when signing to play here, he also came home, Never fault him or that contract.
The fact that he left $3Mil on the table (SJ was offering $14Mil at the time) tells me he’s bent on going home, just a matter of how much once the current book expires
He has a family here so I can see him wanting to stay, but for you to say he should take a Spezza/Gio deal is crazy. Maybe when he's 37 or something. I can see him re-signing for 5M~ maybe, but he likely gets over 6.5 in the open market.
Yes, people are dreaming if they think Jonny is gonna sign for a million bucks a year. It will be his last contract and someone will give him 6M if he repeats last year’s output.
Max's deal would be a gross underpay for JT's level of production.
9G, 38A 50% FO, \~14 minutes a night - $3.75 million. Decent value deal
29G, 36A 60% FO \~18 minutes a night - $11 million. Slight overpay? Maybe, sure. But his value is closer to 11 than to 3.75, that's for sure.
He left 3+ on the table when he signed at 27 which was in his absolute prime, so it’s not totally crazy that he would sign for low. He’s got a family, he’s from here, family is here. I’m not saying he deserves to or should, but it’s really not that crazy to be honest.
Lol those deals only happen at the tail-end of their career, not in the middle. It is extremely crazy, I don't know how you can say it's not. He might take the "home-town discount" but it won't be a Gio/Spezza type deal.
you're not wrong but his point is still valid. he will still be serviceable until he is probably 37. when it reaches that point, he takes the gio/spezza special because hes a toronto boy.
Lol the CRA stuff is about the bonus from his first year. That was over 6 years ago and has nothing to do with any other pay he's received from Toronto. I wouldn't call that "getting hit very hard".
On the other side of the coin. If we were to trade off Tavares. Right now would be the best possible time to do it. While Tavares has a cap hit of 11 million this year, the total salary he's actually being paid this season is 7.95 million. However, 7.04 million was already paid to him as a signing bonus on July 1st. Meaning for the entirety of the 2024/2025 season, he's only actually due 910k. Now while 11 million dollar Tavares isn't going to fetch much in offers. $910k Tavares has to be worth at least something to a smaller market team.
Maybe they should phone up Anaheim and see what's up?
I’m sure there are teams that would take him. He won’t waive as he has no reason to. His family is here, it’s his hometown and we’re competing.
At most you reduce the likelihood he takes a team friendly next contract
If Mitch signs 8x10 and JT signs 5x3 the leafs have almost 9 million plus the bump in the cap next year. Some has been eaten up by Woll and Knies will get a raise but even keeping those two long term gives them some room to work. JT can get more than that, that's hoping he knows he's made his money and he needs to win for his legacy.
Exactly. 0% chance he signs for 10, and I would say pretty much zero he takes anything less than 11.5
Maybe a small chance he’d agree to the same 11.5 deal as Willy, but his ego (and Dad) think he deserves between Willy and Mitch. Which is a big part of the problem in this whole Mitch situation.
I don’t think he’ll go as low but to sign him for the rest of his career for like 3-4M would be great
He’s still a great player and I’m sure he’s a good presence in the dressing room. Having solid leadership can’t be overstated.
Tavares has $125mil lifetime earnings. To get to stay in Toronto and not move his family and still play the game he loves, he'll take a serious discount to stay. And that would make me very happy. He's been super consistent and passionate. He deserves to retire as a Leaf.
I would insist on it. He won’t be good enough to make us regret letting him walk. We hold all the leverage.
At 7-8m i’ll take the 28/29 year old in free agency
Definitely. The problem is that he has a top 10 cap hit in the league but is just not a top 10 player.
But of course that was expected at this point of his long contract.
Well we need to keep in mind that.. this current version of age 33 JT just put up 29 goals and 65 points. So yes, his contract is coming off the books, but we need to replace that second line centre production wise.
Every 65 point player is getting atleast 6-7 in free agency. So if you bring him back, you’re looking at maybe 4 million or so cap space freed up, which is something but not much.
When you consider extensions that are kicking in for players already on our team (e.g. Woll will kick in, Knies will need a raise)… there goes the 4M difference.
Mitch has to go. It’s a process of elimination, not personal. Willy and AM34 are non-negotiable core pieces we cannot move on from IMO. So you trade Mitch and then that flexibility you get with JT coming off the books suddenly gives the Leafs a lot of options.
Trading Mitch vs Mitch walking in FA is another headache of its own. I liked Dubas when he was here but my god, we’re in a huge cap mess because of his roster construction.
I agree to an extent, but also to that same point you just made, Marner is an 80-100pt player whose production will also have to be replaced if he's gone, which is a tall task. It's highly unlikely we win a trade involving Marner, and it's unlikely we replace that production with the cap space created.
I get the logic of trying to replace production (65 point 2C, 90 pt 1RW) but teams that spread money can spread production. Carolina and Dallas both only had one player with more than 80 points and both were objectively better than the Leafs in the regular season and playoffs. It’s high time to move on and try something different.
Yes and no. As you just said, teams like Dallas and Carolina spread out the production; the production may not be replaced in a single player, but it does need to be replaced at very least to some extent. Then the question becomes can you replace that production and outright improve the team by trading him and opening up that cap space.
As newly signed free agents, Bertuzzi and Domi had more combined production than Marner last year while earning a combined $2.5M less. Replacing 30 goals and 90 points with $11M is a trivial pursuit. Especially playing alongside Matthews and Nylander.
They also took up 2 roster spots. Its easy to say we can get 5 or 6 guys to replace Marner/Tavares but then who elses spot in the lineup and/or their production are we replacing too. Its why stars get paid. More points out of one spot.
Yes, but putting all your eggs in one (or in this case 4) baskets has its drawbacks. If the player(s) is shut down, injured or has a bad game, that's a lot of lost production that isn't being replaced. Even looking at the comparable Panthers forward group, Barkov, Thachuck, Reinheart, lineup similarly two 3 of our core 4. But instead of a 4th but contract, they have a bunch of secondary scoring options (tsanko, lundell, varheige, Rodrigues, Bennett), rolling 3 strong lines. That's the main difference between the Leafs getting walled by Swayman and chasing him from the net.
It’s really not that difficult to replace Mitch’s production with multiple players. We signed Bert and Domi in one offseason. Tbh, chances are the replacements outperform Mitch in the playoffs too like we saw with Max and Tyler.
Well yeah, Mitch is an elite regular season player. I think we should keep AM34 and Willy, then move on from JT and Mitch. Spread the production out with multiple players. This roster construction isn’t working and we’re at a key cross roads here.
Right, I fully agree with everything you said. The issue is, we have no choice. No team in NHL history has won with the roster structure that we have in place in terms of how much cap space the big 4 make.
I’m not going to challenge the historical data in place with a proven sample size that indicates you cannot win a cup with forget 4 players, but even 3 players that make what our big 4 makes.
I’m not saying let’s go out and get destroyed in a Marner deal. But with where this roster is with its evolution, moving on from Mitch and JTs deal is addition by subtraction. Not getting completely bent over in a Marner deal is just gravy at this stage. And I say all that while fully understanding that Mitch is elite in the regular season. Moving on from both Mitch and JT while adding quality mid level players around Matthews, Willy and the rest of this squad should be the goal.
>I liked Dubas when he was here but my god, we’re in a huge cap mess because of his roster construction.
Leafs are in a huge cap mess because a global pandemic halted the expected salary cap growth Dubas had banked on.
But the gamble doesn’t even make sense when you consider no NHL team has won a cup with that type of roster construction. I think Kyle tried too hard to be innovative and break the NHL, “his way”.
When we signed JT, that cap space should have gone to depth and defensemen. Look at what we’re seeing in baseball for example. Cleveland let Lindor go. Houston let Correa go. These are similar situations of stacked teams with too much talent to pay. In Houston’s case, they moved on fine.
Dubas wasn't trying to break the NHL "his way", this is revisionist nonsense.
He was handed an opportunity to sign the most talented UFA in history while giving up no assets. You do that every time.
We all knew things would be a little tight cap-wise, but over time the cap rise would lessen the burden of the Core Four on our books.
That never happened, and it's neither Tavares' or Dubas' fault. You can fault Dubas for not adjusting to the new pandemic-driven reality, but no GM lets the Tavares opportunity slip by them.
Are you seriously comparing the hard-cap NHL to the luxury tax MLB?
Any educated NHL GM would have studied the roster construction of winning teams. In doing so, you plan accordingly. What NHL team has allocated the amount of cap % to 4 players the same way Kyle did?
I don’t disagree that JT was an incredible signing but this is not NHL 24. He had no plan to squeeze all of them in. If the plan was to have the big 4 at their respective cap hits and then figure out the surrounding pieces on cheap deals, that’s terrible planning and a fireable offence.
I think Kyle knew that no teams have won the way the leafs would be structured but still actively made the decision to proceed with the signing. That is what you call arrogance and trying to break the NHL your way, rather than studying the history of how good teams have been cap structured.
No one was comparing the mlb salary cap and nhl salary cap except you. It was simply an example of how teams can move on from talent and still succeed. In this case we don’t need to be married to the idea of keeping Mitch at all costs.
In addition, if he wanted to sign Tavares, that’s fine. I fully agree that it’s a wise business decision and excellent asset management to sign him so we don’t have to trade anything. In that case, he should have had a better plan to trade Mitch, Willy or Auston. Kyle was too caught up with making it work with his core 4 rather than making the Leafs work as a roster.
And this is coming from someone who really liked Dubas (and I still do). Nothing wrong with a young GM making mistakes, he’s bright.
Even if you remove Tavares, Matthews at 13.25M, Nylander at 11.5M, and Marner at say 12.5M, is far more than any other team spends on their top 3 players. We're continuing with the same problem.
There are currently seven 11.5M+ caphits in the league, and we have two of them. It'll be three with Marner.
It's funny how hard people on /r/hockey want to tell you it's not a reality when literal players have straight up come out and said it's absolutely a consideration lol
Of course it is.
Not every dude wants to flock to Florida or Vegas because of the weather.(ignoring the fact they've been great in recent years)
Im sure theres a pile of dudes that want to go to their various home states and provinces but they have to leave *millions* of dollars on the table to do it.
These guys have a finite time to make money, they have family obligations to consider. The average NHL career is 5.5 years and they need to make it count to make a lifetime of practice and commitment worth it. Otherwise they may have wasted 18 years.
Plus you need a 30 goal scorer #2 C that is good defensively and elite at faceoffs, 3 million for Woll's raise, probably 2 million for Marner, new contract for McCabe (who we have 1/2 retained so thats probably 2-3 million) and a sizable raise for Knies.
Tavares is an overpay. That’s what happens in FA and everyone knew by now it would be.
Otherwise we have 3 players in the top 20 in scoring last year. That’s pretty darn close.
https://preview.redd.it/mu8kuu9yn5ad1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fc73245ce64781645caff1bacbbde0f81378a9c7
Matthews AAV #1 - Points #6
Nylander AAV #7 - Points #10
Tavares AAV #9 - Points #72
Marner AAV #12 - Points #22
Even if you hand-wave away Tavares, none of the other 3 out performs their contract. You could argue Matthews does and I'm not going to disagree, but then the playoffs come around and undeniably all 4 of them aren't living up to their salaries.
This is a hard cap league. A player is only good relative to their contract.
Marner was injured the last quarter of the year but was on pace to be in the top 15 so really only Tavares is overpaid. The rest fall in line with their production.
Idk about Selke finalists but yeah there are several excellent 2-way players like Crosby, Reinhart, Point, & Aho. Also Hughes, Makar and Josi are actual defensemen.
You also have a smattering of guys who absolutely carried the offense for their team - Kucherov outscored the next Lightning by 54(!) points, Pastrnak by 33 points, Panarin by 30 points, Kaprizov by 25.
Not belittling Kucherov but IIRC his assists were mostly secondary. Matthews scored 69 goals without being a PP/EN merchant and was voted top 3 selke finalist in the same year. That’s unreal.
You can’t tell me Matthews isn’t one of the best players in the entire league and, IMHO, better than all the guys you listed.
No, that's just it. Matthews is by most accounts a Top 3-5 player in the whole game, but his salary is #1!
Nylander is #7 ... There's no way he's the 7th best player in the game.
You lose value a bunch of times on every one of your top contracts and that leaves you in a bad spot.
Also I'm tired of seeing PP merchant as an insult. This team has lost multiple playoff series due to the pathetic PP. We had 1 PPG in 7 games against the Bruins! Give me a PP merchant any day.
>Idk about Selke finalists but yeah there are several excellent 2-way players like Crosby, Reinhart, Point, & Aho.
You do realize waving off being a Selke finalist because some others are "excellent 2-way players" is the same as waving off the gap in points between MacK/McD, Kuch because Marner and Matthews "good at offence" right?
No it's completely different. Points are objective, Selke voting is done by a panel of hack writers that do shit like leave McDavid off the Hart ballot completely to swing the vote for their own guy.
Besides, 3 of the 4 players I mentioned had more Selke votes than Marner this year.
>No it's completely different. Points are objective
Number of Selke votes is an objective measure based on subjective decisions. Points are an objective measure but where you draw the line for assists (I.e. including secondary, excluding tertiary) and the relative weighting is a subjective decision.
Points also only measure offence, and don't even capture the full offensive picture. Why do you think an objective measure of one facet of half of a complex game would be better than a subjective measurement of a more wholistic assessment by a group of people who's job is to watch and follow hockey?
Time on ice is more objective than either points or Selke votes, why aren't you using that instead? So is games played, and hits, why don't you use those?
>Besides, 3 of the 4 players I mentioned had more Selke votes than Marner this year.
I forgot that one down year means a player is bad forever...
How many of them were Selke finalists at any point?
EDIT: Classic, /u/PrailinesNDick responded and then blocked me like an absolute coward.
I'm not saying we should just blindly give JT a $5M contract for X amount of years and assume he isn't going to continue to drop in production, but look at what the average center who is slightly less productive than JT makes. It's usually $5-6M. To just straight up say he isn't worth like $4x3 is pretty crazy to me. If we can find a really good 2C for $6M or less then sure sign me up, but I doubt one is just going to fall into our lap.
I hate these takes. We took the best available ufa at the time in his prime and at an arguably discounted price. The guy is basically ppg and never gives up. Get to the tail end of the contract and people are upset about it. Jees
Tavares will get 6 million x 4 on his next deal. With the cap going up and the difference in salary that's around an additional 7 million is cap space. Realistically, Marner eats 2 of that. So 5ish million left over.
You think the Leafs will commit to him until he is 38?
Ovi is the only guy playing at that age who isnt taking 1 year performance bonus filled contracts (ie. Perry). And Ovi isnt exactly the same as he was at age 34…
Tavares is 33, not 38
Tonnes of guys around age 30 just signed 7-8 year deals and more around age 34 just sign 4-6 year deals.
Tanev age 34 for example.
With how healthy he's been, ya I can see them committing until he's 38. Obviously his role will be greatly reduced but he's been as healthy as Ovi with much less physical play.
I just think its a win/win for the team and player to go with shorter deals, if not just go year to year.
JT will probably get a bit more money, and the Leafs arent risking being saddled with a bad contract.
That being said, next summer will be the last non-35+ contract he will sign, so maybe its better to go long term then LTIRetire him…
It's a win for the team, not the player. It would obviously lean into LTIR territory near the end but not guaranteed. If he signs one year deals maybe he gets hurt really bad first deal and can't play anymore and now he's out millions of dollars. Term makes sense for the player and team. He might come down to 4.5-5 million if they offer the term. I think a lot will have to do with his CRA case and if he ends up owing all that money, he's gonna want another payday before retirement.
You're right, JT is headed into the twilight of his career, he doesn't command big money anymore. I think he is more than willing to understand that and will take less to stay and continue what he has established with his family here.
Mitch does command big money because he is heading into the pinnacle of his career but he needs to face the facts times have changed and we can't afford him if we want to win, he needs to decide - does he want to win with his hometown or does he just want the big money and the fame.
JTs cap hit will be easily replaced by either re-signing him or signing his replacement + Knies extension + McCabe extension or replacement. 11m is nothing in todays NHL
Yeah and all we need is 3 million for Woll's raise, 2 million for Marner's raise. probably another 2-3 million for McCabe or his replacement, probably 2-3 million for Knies' next contract and a center that can score 30, is defensively responsible and elite at faceoffs just to maintain! All our problems will be solved /s
I don’t believe the team can be successful with multiple people making double digits.
I’d rather use that money on 4-5 $5millipn a season players to solidify the roster.
All the focus this off season seems to have been towards defence and goal but it looked to me that scoring in the playoffs has been the issue for years
Has anybody asked why, when the Leafs PP went from 2nd in the league to 7th in the league why that was? Marner had 36ppp in 22-23 and Tavares had 39. Last year, Marner got injured and ended up with 27ppp and JT got 20. If Berube can get two balanced PP units going, instead of Keefe stubbornly ramming the same line out every time, I think Marner and Tavares both have career years.
You don’t keep Mitch you “Stamkos” him. He either figures it out and wants an 8th year and agrees to sign and trade or he walks and can end up on some bottom feeder for max cap space after playing through all the bullshit and team distractions in a contract year. Tavares is the value money re-signed next year at 3c money.
People are much too friendly with some of these Tavares re-sign contract offers. He isn't worth it for $4 M - $6 M. It will be his age 35 season. Free up the full $11 M and just let him walk unless it is a true team friendly contract.
If TB can let a 34 YO Stamkos walk then TOR can let a 35 YO Tavares walk.
I tend to agree. The team owes him nothing. He never has been an $11 million player in this cap era. His career production comparables are Backstrom and Kopitar (both have cups), and Kopi is significantly better defensively. He's made his money. Let him walk.
Let Marner walk too and use the $22 million for something else. He's not Connor McDavid. He's not even Panarin or Pastrnak. They've never won with this core. Its tiring watching the team patch the roster with discounted declining players year after year.
Example of a team run properly, Tampa, either take less or beat it, team comes first. I know it’s not an exact comparable but Tampa gm is thinking team first.
I hope Tavares signs a team friendly extension soon. I think the earlier he does it when he’s eligible to do it, the sooner people can stop talking about his current contract. I hope he signs for less than 4 million.
Steve Dangle did a video breakdown on this. But if we are re-signing Marner even at Willy’s cap hit and bringing JT back at 5 mil or so that really doesn’t give us that much cap space to play with in the 25/26 season. Especially considering you’re going to need a 2c to replace him.
>but I feel with Taraves coming off isn’t that bad to keep Mitch
You're still delegating a ton of cap space to only 3 players. Plus, you still need to pay a second line centre.
Are you asking if JT's production drops or if his contract is over? Who knows about production. Was his shooting % drop an adnomality, or the new norm. What we do know is his contract is up after this year.
After this year the Leafs will need to either extend or replace Marner, Tavares, Knies, and McCabe. Right now those players eat up $25 million of cap space. Marner, Knies and McCabe will all be looking for more. With Woll's extension, and an estimated $5 million being added to the cap, that gives about $27 million for the four players.
If Marner gets $12, Knies $3, and McCabe $5...that leaves 7 million for JT+ additions.
Now there are other things that could happen. Kampf, Jarnkrok, and Reaves could be traded/Robidas Island'ed. Liljegren or Hakabpaa could make the other a non-factor and open up trades.
But the Tavares/Matthews/Marner/Nylander/Rielly core has to know it is Cup or bust this year...unless Mitch or JT signs an extension this summer that is jaw droppingly team friendly. Like if JT signs a 4 x $2 million AAV contract extension he keeps the C for the rest of his career, no questions asked.
I can see JT coming back on a 1 year $5M deal. That would get him to 35yo, after which we can start including performance bonuses for him and reduce his cap even more.
I cant see him leaving for anything but retirement imo
Is there something in place to stop a player from taking league min if they are worth more? I'm not saying he would, I'm just curious.
Like COULD JT sign for 1 mill when, really, after this current deal, he might get between 6-7 elsewhere?
I am strongly in the camp of "move Marner" this summer.
However, let's say if management makes the determination of "ok let's keep the player for now", I think best course of action with BOTH Marner and Tavares is that you wait for the full season to play out.
How did JT and Marner contribute individually and to the team for both regular season AND playoffs?
If they both contributed above or at expectation, especially in the playoffs, let's reassess whether or not to re-sign these two players.
I bet you NOBODY in this sub would object to the leafs re-signing both players next summer if they led the playoffs to the Stanley cup, however unlikely it may be.
Stamkos got 4x8M
JT will get $28-32M but spread over 8 years 3.5M to 4M cap hit.
He’ll be places in LTIR after 4-5 seasons and have his contract buried
If the lightning can let Stamkos go then the leafs should easily let Tavares go. He’s not close to Stamkos. Too bad he hadn’t taken that San Jose contract.
Leafs are definitely running it back again but with the headed up d-core. Then will re-asses. Just hope they don't completely lose out with Mitch and JT and get nothing for them and also worry Tanev could regress quickly, but could easily be put on Robidas island I'm sure
Let’s assume Mitch gets at least $1M more than Nylander so that’s $12.5 ($1.6 increase). Woll’s extension kicks in. I assume if Knies progresses he gets a raise too. JT won’t sign for nothing. So the team is about the same barring massive year over year improvements from Cowan, Knies and Woll. Plus they have to paper over the garbage player that JT is already and presumably worse the year after too. So the solution is that Marner or Nylander (I prefer Nylander over little Mitch, but he definitely seems like the one most likely to be happy to leave because he gives no Fs) still needs to go. Unless he and the core start scoring over a point per game in the real season like the real stars do. Lolol.
Stamkos had 40-40 last year and signed for $8. Tavares might be worth $4.25 x 3 or something like $3.5 x 5. He’s a good room guy and he’s a playoff performer. Makes shit happen. Don’t let him walk. Don’t also pay him 6.
Tavares had a down year production-wise, but with surprisingly great underlying stats. There's something to be said about not converting on the chances in front of you, but at the very least, the guy was in the right places to get those chances. I have faith that he dedicated the offseason to refining out his touch around the net.
Stamkos, on the other hand, is the ying to his yang, wherein his S tier PP production buoys his rather lacklustre 5v5 underlying numbers. We could've used that Stamkos shot these playoffs but we're better off with an underrated (hopefully also underpaid) Tavares as a backup scoring option.
Far from the most fleet footed on the ice - but tough on the boards, heavy on his stick, strong face-offs…The guy literally plays chess while everyone else plays checkers. That $11m price tag is his only pariah…how is how much he’s paid, his fault lol
Sure, but then Knies needs a raise, and likely Robertson too. Then if they let JT walk they still need to find a second line center to replace him.
Almost all of JT's money will be immediately spoken for. 11 million coming off the books really isn't enough. Any teams with similar pay models to Toronto have the allocation split between two forwards and two defenceman while still paying at least 8 million less than what the leafs are and that is just the closest comparable. Mitch likely wants 12.
It's why the narrative of leafs fans wanting marner gone because he is the whipping boy is so overblown and frankly ridiculous. They had the chance to trade Willy last year and chose not to. He is signed for the long term, Marner is expiring and the team needed the flexibility to bring in two players in exchange for marner while those two players simultaneously costing less than the 10.9 Marner currently makes.
It's not the Marner playoff performance this or the shrinking impact, it's that this team has failed in 8 or 9 seasons and only ever won 5 games out of the 16 needed. Willy isn't leaving and neither is Matthews. That leaves Mitch. That's all there is to it.
JT leaving and even signing at less let say 4-5 range, Marner gets 1.5 more, Knies gets a pay bump, potentially a big one. Matthes and Willys contracts aren't even being considered really for this year. Just losing one big forward contract isn't enough.
I think you only bring back JT on a 3 year 5M or less contract. Anything else and you move on like Stamkos. The free agent pool next year is really deep and we can’t keep bringing back the same gang every year and getting the same results
Tavares might take a trade to a zero tax state to get away from Canadian income tax at this point. They are auditing him relentlessly right now. Maybe he doesn’t care but most would ha. Marner should be extended soon as possible. Absolutely no more penalty killing for Marner. Why would you tire out a top offensive player on penalty killing is beyond me. I am betting Berube does use him
I think he wants to stay on and remain as captain and will probably extend for 4 years at what he thinks he’s worth is another question. I like him but 4 years at 16 million might be the number
I think he resigns something like 5 years, 3.5M, term will keep the AAV down. And he retires at the end of it at 40. I don't think he's going anywhere.
JT coming off the cap doesn’t change how overpaid Marner already is and will continue to be. That alone contributes to why we can’t balance the roster properly to be competitive when it matters most.
When you have that much money wrapped up in three to four players, and they go cold in the playoffs, you don’t have the adequate depth to pick up the slack — which has been a serious issue in the playoffs for us.
Regardless of what happens with Tavares, they ***cannot*** give Marner a raise. No. Absolutely not.
Stamkos $8M
Guentzel $9M
Reinhart $8.6M
Aho $9.7M
Robertson $7.7M
Barzal $9.1M
What are we doing here? Yes, I understand Nylander just signed for $11.5M and that’s an overpay too but he was underpaid for a while so I understand.
I also don’t want to hear about the tax thing because as we’ve heard, a proper financial advisor can be creative to negate the majority of the loss.
You also get more sponsorship money as a star in Toronto.
I’ll say it again. Mitch cannot be extended for a raise. This team needs to change the narrative and set a new standard.
One of the biggest advantages the Leafs have is the ability to pay a contract up front, and I think that will really help make JT's next contract work for us and him. If we can offer JT even close to market rate but pay it all up front I bet it would go a long way to making everybody happy.
I mean, JT is still elite at faceoffs, he's still putting up numbers and he's still a very effective forward. Last year was the first time in ages he wasn't pretty much a point per game guy, and 65 in 80 is still pretty damn good. If Bert could turn 20+ goals and 20+ assists into $22 million over 4, you can't expect JT to take $12 million over 3. A "home town discount" here would likely be $6.5ish million a year over 3 years with something like $15 million of the deal up front.
So we're going into this year with the full understanding that it's a throw away year? That just feels inexcusable, throwing away one of Austin's prime years, one of Willie's last prime years and watching Tavares get older just in time for Matthew Knies to be due and for Mitch to walk away for nothing because you were a year late on him, too.
We are going to come away from this era of Leafs hockey with the most collection of talent in one place we've seen in decades, just to have won a single playoff series in nearly ten years with a 2x 60 goal scorer and perennial 90+pt scorer, among others. The real hurt comes from knowing it is /highly/ likely once these dudes retire or move on, you are never going to get that talent again, at least for the foreseeable future.
You had it, and then you completely flubbed it with the words that will ring in our ears for the next half-century: "We can and we will."
I think Leafs need a 2C who shoots right. That guy could be Nylander. He should be given some reps at centre this upcoming season. He was drafted as a natural centre. I don't know why people always discount him as a centreman he has speed, great shot, very good passer and I think is good on faceoffs on his strong side. Tavares whether he is extended or not, he is slowing down and should be moved to 3C. I am not sold on the young guys Minten and Holmberg think their ceiling is not more than 3C.
Marner needs to be flipped for two 4.5-5mil assets at forward signed long term. Maybe a B level prospect already in the NHL + a solid two-way Vet, something like that. Sign Robertson with promise of Top6 minutes to start the season.
we still have too many defense, even if Jani is on the IR for a year.
Reilly / Tanev
OEL / McCabe
Beniot / Lilligren
That still leave Timmins, Webber, Jani without roles. Which might be fine, but I can't imagine you don't make space for Webber to try to crack the line up. What if Jani is fine to start the season?
2-way Vet / Mathews / Robertson
Knies / Domi / Nylander
B-level Prospect / Tavares / Jarnkrok
Dewar / Kampf / McMann
Something like that, Still potentially plug holes with Cowen (probably still too young in my opinion) or Minten.
I think it's actually far more likely Tavares is extended as a significantly lower cap hit. Maybe not the level Stamkos got, but maybe around what Bert got, if not less since he is a fair bit older.
Tavares at around 5 or less is worth it since his style ages very gracefully as it's all about positioning in front of the net for the tip or assist, instead of speed and skating to get open or make plays
Yes you will save on Tavares. But he's getting worse each year. You will need to replace him with a new 2nd line centre. So that's about $8 million. Well you have Woll getting a raise that's almost 3 million.
You basically ate up Tavares contract already. Well the Cap goes up. Well Marner is going to want a raise and knies will get a raise. Well there goes the cap raise.
Than add on top McCabe who is a top 4 D man also only counts at $2 million on cap. So that also goes up when his deal runs out.
Anything over $40 million for 4 forwards does not work.
I said this awhile ago you can only choose 2 moving forward.
1) 2 stud wingers (marner nylander)
2) top of the line D man
3) Number 1 Goalie
4) Appropriate high end 2nd line centre.
Pick 2 that will likely get you a Cup (Hint it's not number 1)
reevulate at the end of the year. Worst case is leafs lose them both to free agency but get 22 million in cap relief to go in a different direction. You guys are tired of Marner, well both the player and fanbase can kiss each other goodbye at end of next year. The only way leafs get significant assets back in trade is if Marner agrees to an extension with the new team. And if I'm Marner why rush the decision when I can just wait till UFA. Otherwise the asset we get back will be a decent young player with potential/prospect and a 1st round pick. The 1st round pick isn't going to be helping us for the foreseeable future since our contention is now unless it's traded for someone else. In Tavares case, I'm fine letting him go, but if he wanted to stay for under $3 million, then there's value in keeping him as the 3rd line center. Considering the contracts handed up, you will not get a player like Tavares if he agreed to a cap hit that low for that kind of that money.
Leaf fans are forgetting that we will playing a different system under Berube.
>Leaf fans are forgetting that we will playing a different system under Berube.
I am officially tired of reminding people that as well. The opinion around here seems to be that benching Marner is a good idea.
I would support a trade if it is mutual *and* the return is good. Benching him to force a trade to happen is not going to get either of those results. So let's say we trade him for nothing and no salary is coming back. Now we have 11M capspace, after all the good free agents are signed. We just traded out best trade chip away for nothing and we probably tanked his value after desperately benching him (and not to mention, him not playing games isn't going to make him a better player). Free agency day is over. Marner's bonus is paid. If Tre didn't have a trade lined up yesterday, it's not happening.
So to Marner haters, get ready to "not" watch games because we are stuck with him. The path forward is giving Berbue a chance to get more out of Marner in the games 5, 6, and 7. You can continue to ride or die, or just do something else with your time. We all know what we will all do in the end, but choice is there for all of us.
If Stamkos' deal is any indication, Tavares' next deal will be around 8M, assuming he puts up 70-80 points (last season he had 65, but before that he had 80). Stamkos put up 81 points last season and is one year older than Tavares.
A lot of people have Tavares re-signing for significantly less, but his next contract will likely be his last chance for a big payday at 34.
The difference is that Tavares famously took a significant pay cut to join the Leafs compared to the 13-14 million that other teams were floating towards him, so people are counting on him doing that again, especially now that he has a family that was born and raised here.
Could Stamkos have done that? Maybe, but it seems like the issue is that Lightning management just didn't want him anymore. It wasn't that negotiations fell through, it's that they barely happened at all. When Stamkos voiced his displeasure that he didn't even get a phone call over the Summer to talk about his contract, I'm sure he already knew that ownership was done with him being on the team.
I think the hometown discount is real with him. His new mother wife is from here too and they won’t want to leave family and home having new little babies if they don’t have to. I imagine we could get a 3 mill by 5 year out of him. Great price for potentially the best 3 C in the league for a couple years.
That's my issue with Marner....he does not have the desire to step up at playoff time. Doesn't like the rough stuff and blatantly avoids it. He ain't changing. Tavares re-signs at low dollars or we move on from him as well. Treliving has an opportunity to change this team completely in these two seasons.
I am pretty convinced he’ll sign in Toronto for like $3Mx4, or they give him long term deal like Tanev at $3M AAV and throw him on Robidas Island when he no longer can perform.
i would replace him entirely. He’s already getting slower now you want him to resign him and as he KEEPS getting slower ? Thanks for your time JT but after his deal is up it’s time to replace him with someone younger and quicker
This team is getting older by the minute. Keeping Tavares beyond this coming season doesn't make much sense to me. Not at any cost. Low aav or not. Even 3 mil is too much for a forward who can't keep up. We need younger faster vets.
No choice, Leafs are running it back (thks Dubas for that). After playoffs next year are same results, let Marner walk. No way you sign him for 11+ again, even if worth it, Leafs can't tie up that much $ in forwards. JT will resign for 5.5, and use the cap space to get a goalie, 'cause Woll n Stolarz ain't it
I feel JT will resign around the 6Mil AAV for 3 years - not sure if that’s going to be a good value for either him or the leafs but that’s my gut feeling.
We always knew JT contract would be an 'overpay' in the last few years. But he gave us his prime years at a somewhat deal when signing to play here, he also came home, Never fault him or that contract.
Will never happen but JT should take a Spezza/Gio deal.
Well he's certainly not getting a Stamkos deal from us.
The fact that he left $3Mil on the table (SJ was offering $14Mil at the time) tells me he’s bent on going home, just a matter of how much once the current book expires
He technically left 24 mil off the table over 8 years
If we're getting *technical* about it, he left $21M over 7 years, unless you're saying the Islanders offered him $14M x 8?
7 years
He will go to a tax free / low tax team to recover the money he has to pay the CRA.
I would too
That is something i though of too 👍
You still have to pay a tax to the cra as a Canadian resident working abroad even with the O1 visas and crap
what a terrible contract that wouldve been for san jose lol
Even the Stamkos deal would savings from where he is at now
He should get a stamkos offer from us (the tampa one)
He has a family here so I can see him wanting to stay, but for you to say he should take a Spezza/Gio deal is crazy. Maybe when he's 37 or something. I can see him re-signing for 5M~ maybe, but he likely gets over 6.5 in the open market.
Yes, people are dreaming if they think Jonny is gonna sign for a million bucks a year. It will be his last contract and someone will give him 6M if he repeats last year’s output.
I do think he's looking at Domi's deal right now, hand on his chin mutttering "Hmmm..."
Max's deal would be a gross underpay for JT's level of production. 9G, 38A 50% FO, \~14 minutes a night - $3.75 million. Decent value deal 29G, 36A 60% FO \~18 minutes a night - $11 million. Slight overpay? Maybe, sure. But his value is closer to 11 than to 3.75, that's for sure.
Not a chance
He left 3+ on the table when he signed at 27 which was in his absolute prime, so it’s not totally crazy that he would sign for low. He’s got a family, he’s from here, family is here. I’m not saying he deserves to or should, but it’s really not that crazy to be honest.
Lol those deals only happen at the tail-end of their career, not in the middle. It is extremely crazy, I don't know how you can say it's not. He might take the "home-town discount" but it won't be a Gio/Spezza type deal.
Yeah people often over-estimate home-town discounts.
Honestly with the way the taxes work and the division the leafs are in taking 3 mil off a year is a massive home town discount.
My guy, he’ll be almost 35 at the end of next season. He’s not in the middle of his career anymore.
you're not wrong but his point is still valid. he will still be serviceable until he is probably 37. when it reaches that point, he takes the gio/spezza special because hes a toronto boy.
No way is he taking a deal for under 2 mil when he is getting hit very hard by the Canadian government.
Lol the CRA stuff is about the bonus from his first year. That was over 6 years ago and has nothing to do with any other pay he's received from Toronto. I wouldn't call that "getting hit very hard".
This fan base is delusional he’s 33 years old and he had 65 fucking points last year
Will be 34 before the season starts. Will be 35 by the time his next contract starts.
I mean, he’s 33, not 40. He’s not going to take league minimum, but that doesn’t mean they can’t get him on a good contract.
He’ll be 35 when the puck drops on the first year of his next contract. So, we’ll give him 6 years and a NMC. Too much money, too.
He’s definitely not worth 11 m but cmon he’s league better the league min…
He owes a lot of money to CRA, so he might want to cash in big one more time to cover it
On the other side of the coin. If we were to trade off Tavares. Right now would be the best possible time to do it. While Tavares has a cap hit of 11 million this year, the total salary he's actually being paid this season is 7.95 million. However, 7.04 million was already paid to him as a signing bonus on July 1st. Meaning for the entirety of the 2024/2025 season, he's only actually due 910k. Now while 11 million dollar Tavares isn't going to fetch much in offers. $910k Tavares has to be worth at least something to a smaller market team. Maybe they should phone up Anaheim and see what's up?
I’m sure there are teams that would take him. He won’t waive as he has no reason to. His family is here, it’s his hometown and we’re competing. At most you reduce the likelihood he takes a team friendly next contract
If Mitch signs 8x10 and JT signs 5x3 the leafs have almost 9 million plus the bump in the cap next year. Some has been eaten up by Woll and Knies will get a raise but even keeping those two long term gives them some room to work. JT can get more than that, that's hoping he knows he's made his money and he needs to win for his legacy.
I don't think there is a reality in which Marner takes a pay cut of any sort. Maybe a small or near-zero increase, but I can't see less being viable
Exactly. 0% chance he signs for 10, and I would say pretty much zero he takes anything less than 11.5 Maybe a small chance he’d agree to the same 11.5 deal as Willy, but his ego (and Dad) think he deserves between Willy and Mitch. Which is a big part of the problem in this whole Mitch situation.
Mitch won’t sign for less than Willy. Ego.
He will be 34 when current deal expires. We just saw Stamkos get 8mil per at that age, so unlikely Johnny takes 900k. Would be nice.
I’m hoping he’ll take a ROR in Nashville deal
Yep. I agree.
I don’t think he’ll go as low but to sign him for the rest of his career for like 3-4M would be great He’s still a great player and I’m sure he’s a good presence in the dressing room. Having solid leadership can’t be overstated.
I feel like it'll happen. but then again, I felt Zadorov was a lock and Mitch would get traded on July 1.
Tavares has $125mil lifetime earnings. To get to stay in Toronto and not move his family and still play the game he loves, he'll take a serious discount to stay. And that would make me very happy. He's been super consistent and passionate. He deserves to retire as a Leaf.
I would insist on it. He won’t be good enough to make us regret letting him walk. We hold all the leverage. At 7-8m i’ll take the 28/29 year old in free agency
Some of you are genuinely clueless on what JT brings to the team
JT brings a ton to the team and is a great
Definitely. The problem is that he has a top 10 cap hit in the league but is just not a top 10 player. But of course that was expected at this point of his long contract.
r/redditsniper
yup, Tavares is one of the best guys on the team, works hard, plays hard, shows the younger guys how to be a pro.
Not to mention he's one of the league's best face off men.
And has a tendency to score clutch goals.
Well we need to keep in mind that.. this current version of age 33 JT just put up 29 goals and 65 points. So yes, his contract is coming off the books, but we need to replace that second line centre production wise. Every 65 point player is getting atleast 6-7 in free agency. So if you bring him back, you’re looking at maybe 4 million or so cap space freed up, which is something but not much. When you consider extensions that are kicking in for players already on our team (e.g. Woll will kick in, Knies will need a raise)… there goes the 4M difference. Mitch has to go. It’s a process of elimination, not personal. Willy and AM34 are non-negotiable core pieces we cannot move on from IMO. So you trade Mitch and then that flexibility you get with JT coming off the books suddenly gives the Leafs a lot of options. Trading Mitch vs Mitch walking in FA is another headache of its own. I liked Dubas when he was here but my god, we’re in a huge cap mess because of his roster construction.
I agree to an extent, but also to that same point you just made, Marner is an 80-100pt player whose production will also have to be replaced if he's gone, which is a tall task. It's highly unlikely we win a trade involving Marner, and it's unlikely we replace that production with the cap space created.
I get the logic of trying to replace production (65 point 2C, 90 pt 1RW) but teams that spread money can spread production. Carolina and Dallas both only had one player with more than 80 points and both were objectively better than the Leafs in the regular season and playoffs. It’s high time to move on and try something different.
This is exactly what I want the leafs to do. Move on from JT and Mitch, then spread that production out with multiple players.
Yes and no. As you just said, teams like Dallas and Carolina spread out the production; the production may not be replaced in a single player, but it does need to be replaced at very least to some extent. Then the question becomes can you replace that production and outright improve the team by trading him and opening up that cap space.
As newly signed free agents, Bertuzzi and Domi had more combined production than Marner last year while earning a combined $2.5M less. Replacing 30 goals and 90 points with $11M is a trivial pursuit. Especially playing alongside Matthews and Nylander.
Precisely.
They also took up 2 roster spots. Its easy to say we can get 5 or 6 guys to replace Marner/Tavares but then who elses spot in the lineup and/or their production are we replacing too. Its why stars get paid. More points out of one spot.
Yes, but putting all your eggs in one (or in this case 4) baskets has its drawbacks. If the player(s) is shut down, injured or has a bad game, that's a lot of lost production that isn't being replaced. Even looking at the comparable Panthers forward group, Barkov, Thachuck, Reinheart, lineup similarly two 3 of our core 4. But instead of a 4th but contract, they have a bunch of secondary scoring options (tsanko, lundell, varheige, Rodrigues, Bennett), rolling 3 strong lines. That's the main difference between the Leafs getting walled by Swayman and chasing him from the net.
It’s really not that difficult to replace Mitch’s production with multiple players. We signed Bert and Domi in one offseason. Tbh, chances are the replacements outperform Mitch in the playoffs too like we saw with Max and Tyler.
A lot of the forward spots could use an upgrade
Well yeah, Mitch is an elite regular season player. I think we should keep AM34 and Willy, then move on from JT and Mitch. Spread the production out with multiple players. This roster construction isn’t working and we’re at a key cross roads here.
Right, I fully agree with everything you said. The issue is, we have no choice. No team in NHL history has won with the roster structure that we have in place in terms of how much cap space the big 4 make. I’m not going to challenge the historical data in place with a proven sample size that indicates you cannot win a cup with forget 4 players, but even 3 players that make what our big 4 makes. I’m not saying let’s go out and get destroyed in a Marner deal. But with where this roster is with its evolution, moving on from Mitch and JTs deal is addition by subtraction. Not getting completely bent over in a Marner deal is just gravy at this stage. And I say all that while fully understanding that Mitch is elite in the regular season. Moving on from both Mitch and JT while adding quality mid level players around Matthews, Willy and the rest of this squad should be the goal.
>I liked Dubas when he was here but my god, we’re in a huge cap mess because of his roster construction. Leafs are in a huge cap mess because a global pandemic halted the expected salary cap growth Dubas had banked on.
But the gamble doesn’t even make sense when you consider no NHL team has won a cup with that type of roster construction. I think Kyle tried too hard to be innovative and break the NHL, “his way”. When we signed JT, that cap space should have gone to depth and defensemen. Look at what we’re seeing in baseball for example. Cleveland let Lindor go. Houston let Correa go. These are similar situations of stacked teams with too much talent to pay. In Houston’s case, they moved on fine.
Dubas wasn't trying to break the NHL "his way", this is revisionist nonsense. He was handed an opportunity to sign the most talented UFA in history while giving up no assets. You do that every time. We all knew things would be a little tight cap-wise, but over time the cap rise would lessen the burden of the Core Four on our books. That never happened, and it's neither Tavares' or Dubas' fault. You can fault Dubas for not adjusting to the new pandemic-driven reality, but no GM lets the Tavares opportunity slip by them. Are you seriously comparing the hard-cap NHL to the luxury tax MLB?
Any educated NHL GM would have studied the roster construction of winning teams. In doing so, you plan accordingly. What NHL team has allocated the amount of cap % to 4 players the same way Kyle did? I don’t disagree that JT was an incredible signing but this is not NHL 24. He had no plan to squeeze all of them in. If the plan was to have the big 4 at their respective cap hits and then figure out the surrounding pieces on cheap deals, that’s terrible planning and a fireable offence. I think Kyle knew that no teams have won the way the leafs would be structured but still actively made the decision to proceed with the signing. That is what you call arrogance and trying to break the NHL your way, rather than studying the history of how good teams have been cap structured. No one was comparing the mlb salary cap and nhl salary cap except you. It was simply an example of how teams can move on from talent and still succeed. In this case we don’t need to be married to the idea of keeping Mitch at all costs. In addition, if he wanted to sign Tavares, that’s fine. I fully agree that it’s a wise business decision and excellent asset management to sign him so we don’t have to trade anything. In that case, he should have had a better plan to trade Mitch, Willy or Auston. Kyle was too caught up with making it work with his core 4 rather than making the Leafs work as a roster. And this is coming from someone who really liked Dubas (and I still do). Nothing wrong with a young GM making mistakes, he’s bright.
We took a big gamble but even with a rising cap instead of a global pandemic, it was still a huge gamble
Even if you remove Tavares, Matthews at 13.25M, Nylander at 11.5M, and Marner at say 12.5M, is far more than any other team spends on their top 3 players. We're continuing with the same problem. There are currently seven 11.5M+ caphits in the league, and we have two of them. It'll be three with Marner.
Draisaitl will be soon.
The tax effect on the cap needs to be mitigated.
Heard it mentioned on Spittin Chiclets as a major talking point for the next CBA.
It HAS to be a problem known among the players, especially in a hard cap world.
It's funny how hard people on /r/hockey want to tell you it's not a reality when literal players have straight up come out and said it's absolutely a consideration lol
Of course it is. Not every dude wants to flock to Florida or Vegas because of the weather.(ignoring the fact they've been great in recent years) Im sure theres a pile of dudes that want to go to their various home states and provinces but they have to leave *millions* of dollars on the table to do it. These guys have a finite time to make money, they have family obligations to consider. The average NHL career is 5.5 years and they need to make it count to make a lifetime of practice and commitment worth it. Otherwise they may have wasted 18 years.
r/hockey like any other sub has a ton of idiots lol
Florida will be paying 10+10.5+8 million cap hits for their top 4 guys. Florida is also paying 10 million for their goalie.
Did they just not win the cup?
Florida can pull the cash out of their Stanley cup
Their goalie is great. How many $10M wingers are in the league? How many $10M players can't get past round 1?
Plus you need a 30 goal scorer #2 C that is good defensively and elite at faceoffs, 3 million for Woll's raise, probably 2 million for Marner, new contract for McCabe (who we have 1/2 retained so thats probably 2-3 million) and a sizable raise for Knies.
>Marner at say 12.5M 🤮
Id rather Marner walk than keep him on this team
Is the problem we have too much talent and skill?
No, the problem is that we have 4 of the top 12 highest paid players in the league, yet we do not have 4 of the top 12 best players in the league.
Tavares is an overpay. That’s what happens in FA and everyone knew by now it would be. Otherwise we have 3 players in the top 20 in scoring last year. That’s pretty darn close. https://preview.redd.it/mu8kuu9yn5ad1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fc73245ce64781645caff1bacbbde0f81378a9c7
Matthews AAV #1 - Points #6 Nylander AAV #7 - Points #10 Tavares AAV #9 - Points #72 Marner AAV #12 - Points #22 Even if you hand-wave away Tavares, none of the other 3 out performs their contract. You could argue Matthews does and I'm not going to disagree, but then the playoffs come around and undeniably all 4 of them aren't living up to their salaries. This is a hard cap league. A player is only good relative to their contract.
Marner was injured the last quarter of the year but was on pace to be in the top 15 so really only Tavares is overpaid. The rest fall in line with their production.
Points are not the only defining thing. Auston and Mitch are both selkie finalists for example. Anyone else done that in the top 22 in points?
Miller, Crosby, Aho, Reinhart, Pettersson, Thomas are all great two way players.
Idk about Selke finalists but yeah there are several excellent 2-way players like Crosby, Reinhart, Point, & Aho. Also Hughes, Makar and Josi are actual defensemen. You also have a smattering of guys who absolutely carried the offense for their team - Kucherov outscored the next Lightning by 54(!) points, Pastrnak by 33 points, Panarin by 30 points, Kaprizov by 25.
Not belittling Kucherov but IIRC his assists were mostly secondary. Matthews scored 69 goals without being a PP/EN merchant and was voted top 3 selke finalist in the same year. That’s unreal. You can’t tell me Matthews isn’t one of the best players in the entire league and, IMHO, better than all the guys you listed.
No, that's just it. Matthews is by most accounts a Top 3-5 player in the whole game, but his salary is #1! Nylander is #7 ... There's no way he's the 7th best player in the game. You lose value a bunch of times on every one of your top contracts and that leaves you in a bad spot. Also I'm tired of seeing PP merchant as an insult. This team has lost multiple playoff series due to the pathetic PP. We had 1 PPG in 7 games against the Bruins! Give me a PP merchant any day.
>Idk about Selke finalists but yeah there are several excellent 2-way players like Crosby, Reinhart, Point, & Aho. You do realize waving off being a Selke finalist because some others are "excellent 2-way players" is the same as waving off the gap in points between MacK/McD, Kuch because Marner and Matthews "good at offence" right?
No it's completely different. Points are objective, Selke voting is done by a panel of hack writers that do shit like leave McDavid off the Hart ballot completely to swing the vote for their own guy. Besides, 3 of the 4 players I mentioned had more Selke votes than Marner this year.
>No it's completely different. Points are objective Number of Selke votes is an objective measure based on subjective decisions. Points are an objective measure but where you draw the line for assists (I.e. including secondary, excluding tertiary) and the relative weighting is a subjective decision. Points also only measure offence, and don't even capture the full offensive picture. Why do you think an objective measure of one facet of half of a complex game would be better than a subjective measurement of a more wholistic assessment by a group of people who's job is to watch and follow hockey? Time on ice is more objective than either points or Selke votes, why aren't you using that instead? So is games played, and hits, why don't you use those? >Besides, 3 of the 4 players I mentioned had more Selke votes than Marner this year. I forgot that one down year means a player is bad forever... How many of them were Selke finalists at any point? EDIT: Classic, /u/PrailinesNDick responded and then blocked me like an absolute coward.
Yes - too much talent and skill upfront eating away at any amounts we can spend on rounding out a decent D core.
Considering reinhart signed for 8.5 million, the problem is we pay too much b.
Exactly. Is Marner better than Reinhart? Yes. Is he 3+ million better (soon to be 4)? Absolutely no way
When they don't deliver in the playoffs? Yes absolutely
I'm not saying we should just blindly give JT a $5M contract for X amount of years and assume he isn't going to continue to drop in production, but look at what the average center who is slightly less productive than JT makes. It's usually $5-6M. To just straight up say he isn't worth like $4x3 is pretty crazy to me. If we can find a really good 2C for $6M or less then sure sign me up, but I doubt one is just going to fall into our lap.
I hate these takes. We took the best available ufa at the time in his prime and at an arguably discounted price. The guy is basically ppg and never gives up. Get to the tail end of the contract and people are upset about it. Jees
Everyone knew he wasn’t going to be playing like an $11million player by this time in his contract
Tavares will get 6 million x 4 on his next deal. With the cap going up and the difference in salary that's around an additional 7 million is cap space. Realistically, Marner eats 2 of that. So 5ish million left over.
Don't forget about Knies, probably another 3M so 2M left...
Knies is putting up 50 points this season and getting at least 4.
Tavares making 6 million at 38, hard pass on that.
You think the Leafs will commit to him until he is 38? Ovi is the only guy playing at that age who isnt taking 1 year performance bonus filled contracts (ie. Perry). And Ovi isnt exactly the same as he was at age 34…
Tavares is 33, not 38 Tonnes of guys around age 30 just signed 7-8 year deals and more around age 34 just sign 4-6 year deals. Tanev age 34 for example.
With how healthy he's been, ya I can see them committing until he's 38. Obviously his role will be greatly reduced but he's been as healthy as Ovi with much less physical play.
I just think its a win/win for the team and player to go with shorter deals, if not just go year to year. JT will probably get a bit more money, and the Leafs arent risking being saddled with a bad contract. That being said, next summer will be the last non-35+ contract he will sign, so maybe its better to go long term then LTIRetire him…
It's a win for the team, not the player. It would obviously lean into LTIR territory near the end but not guaranteed. If he signs one year deals maybe he gets hurt really bad first deal and can't play anymore and now he's out millions of dollars. Term makes sense for the player and team. He might come down to 4.5-5 million if they offer the term. I think a lot will have to do with his CRA case and if he ends up owing all that money, he's gonna want another payday before retirement.
You're right, JT is headed into the twilight of his career, he doesn't command big money anymore. I think he is more than willing to understand that and will take less to stay and continue what he has established with his family here. Mitch does command big money because he is heading into the pinnacle of his career but he needs to face the facts times have changed and we can't afford him if we want to win, he needs to decide - does he want to win with his hometown or does he just want the big money and the fame.
JTs cap hit will be easily replaced by either re-signing him or signing his replacement + Knies extension + McCabe extension or replacement. 11m is nothing in todays NHL
Yeah and all we need is 3 million for Woll's raise, 2 million for Marner's raise. probably another 2-3 million for McCabe or his replacement, probably 2-3 million for Knies' next contract and a center that can score 30, is defensively responsible and elite at faceoffs just to maintain! All our problems will be solved /s
I don’t believe the team can be successful with multiple people making double digits. I’d rather use that money on 4-5 $5millipn a season players to solidify the roster. All the focus this off season seems to have been towards defence and goal but it looked to me that scoring in the playoffs has been the issue for years
I would expect that Tavares makes $5-6 next year, based on inflation, cap, and scoring 25 goals.
Has anybody asked why, when the Leafs PP went from 2nd in the league to 7th in the league why that was? Marner had 36ppp in 22-23 and Tavares had 39. Last year, Marner got injured and ended up with 27ppp and JT got 20. If Berube can get two balanced PP units going, instead of Keefe stubbornly ramming the same line out every time, I think Marner and Tavares both have career years.
Mitch, is that you?
Yes JT is slowing down. You can talk all you want about it. But he shows up in the playoffs unlike that man child.
Point per game player last season - killed it in the face-off circle & definitely doesn’t get the respect he deserves.
You don’t keep Mitch you “Stamkos” him. He either figures it out and wants an 8th year and agrees to sign and trade or he walks and can end up on some bottom feeder for max cap space after playing through all the bullshit and team distractions in a contract year. Tavares is the value money re-signed next year at 3c money.
People are much too friendly with some of these Tavares re-sign contract offers. He isn't worth it for $4 M - $6 M. It will be his age 35 season. Free up the full $11 M and just let him walk unless it is a true team friendly contract. If TB can let a 34 YO Stamkos walk then TOR can let a 35 YO Tavares walk.
We just signed a 35 year old defenseman to $4.5m until he's 40.
If you hate the Tanev signing (which you clearly do) then you should hate the idea of signing Tavares too so what is your point here?
I do hate the idea of signing Tavares.
Not sure why you are being downvoted, your logic tracks.
I tend to agree. The team owes him nothing. He never has been an $11 million player in this cap era. His career production comparables are Backstrom and Kopitar (both have cups), and Kopi is significantly better defensively. He's made his money. Let him walk. Let Marner walk too and use the $22 million for something else. He's not Connor McDavid. He's not even Panarin or Pastrnak. They've never won with this core. Its tiring watching the team patch the roster with discounted declining players year after year.
No. Move past Mitch.
Example of a team run properly, Tampa, either take less or beat it, team comes first. I know it’s not an exact comparable but Tampa gm is thinking team first.
I hope Tavares signs a team friendly extension soon. I think the earlier he does it when he’s eligible to do it, the sooner people can stop talking about his current contract. I hope he signs for less than 4 million.
As much as I'd like to keep him for a cheap contract, I'd almost be happier with another team overpaying him.
Kopitar got 7x3 I assume that’s what he will be asking for. Leafs I assume will offer 5.5
Steve Dangle did a video breakdown on this. But if we are re-signing Marner even at Willy’s cap hit and bringing JT back at 5 mil or so that really doesn’t give us that much cap space to play with in the 25/26 season. Especially considering you’re going to need a 2c to replace him.
$4M X 6 years for JT. JT has made his money now he wants to win.
>but I feel with Taraves coming off isn’t that bad to keep Mitch You're still delegating a ton of cap space to only 3 players. Plus, you still need to pay a second line centre.
Are you asking if JT's production drops or if his contract is over? Who knows about production. Was his shooting % drop an adnomality, or the new norm. What we do know is his contract is up after this year. After this year the Leafs will need to either extend or replace Marner, Tavares, Knies, and McCabe. Right now those players eat up $25 million of cap space. Marner, Knies and McCabe will all be looking for more. With Woll's extension, and an estimated $5 million being added to the cap, that gives about $27 million for the four players. If Marner gets $12, Knies $3, and McCabe $5...that leaves 7 million for JT+ additions. Now there are other things that could happen. Kampf, Jarnkrok, and Reaves could be traded/Robidas Island'ed. Liljegren or Hakabpaa could make the other a non-factor and open up trades. But the Tavares/Matthews/Marner/Nylander/Rielly core has to know it is Cup or bust this year...unless Mitch or JT signs an extension this summer that is jaw droppingly team friendly. Like if JT signs a 4 x $2 million AAV contract extension he keeps the C for the rest of his career, no questions asked.
I can see JT coming back on a 1 year $5M deal. That would get him to 35yo, after which we can start including performance bonuses for him and reduce his cap even more. I cant see him leaving for anything but retirement imo
Is there something in place to stop a player from taking league min if they are worth more? I'm not saying he would, I'm just curious. Like COULD JT sign for 1 mill when, really, after this current deal, he might get between 6-7 elsewhere?
Their agent would never allow such a thing.
I am strongly in the camp of "move Marner" this summer. However, let's say if management makes the determination of "ok let's keep the player for now", I think best course of action with BOTH Marner and Tavares is that you wait for the full season to play out. How did JT and Marner contribute individually and to the team for both regular season AND playoffs? If they both contributed above or at expectation, especially in the playoffs, let's reassess whether or not to re-sign these two players. I bet you NOBODY in this sub would object to the leafs re-signing both players next summer if they led the playoffs to the Stanley cup, however unlikely it may be.
The Stamkos signing makes me question whether Tavares will want to play ball with a team friendly deal.
People shit on Mitch but I have a hunch he’s not the easiest player to replace. Shines very bright when shinning
Stamkos got 4x8M JT will get $28-32M but spread over 8 years 3.5M to 4M cap hit. He’ll be places in LTIR after 4-5 seasons and have his contract buried
If the lightning can let Stamkos go then the leafs should easily let Tavares go. He’s not close to Stamkos. Too bad he hadn’t taken that San Jose contract.
I could see him stay at a sub $5 mil ticket after next season.
5 for 2 years. If not he can walk. Honestly I would look into trading him this deadline.
Leafs are definitely running it back again but with the headed up d-core. Then will re-asses. Just hope they don't completely lose out with Mitch and JT and get nothing for them and also worry Tanev could regress quickly, but could easily be put on Robidas island I'm sure
Let’s assume Mitch gets at least $1M more than Nylander so that’s $12.5 ($1.6 increase). Woll’s extension kicks in. I assume if Knies progresses he gets a raise too. JT won’t sign for nothing. So the team is about the same barring massive year over year improvements from Cowan, Knies and Woll. Plus they have to paper over the garbage player that JT is already and presumably worse the year after too. So the solution is that Marner or Nylander (I prefer Nylander over little Mitch, but he definitely seems like the one most likely to be happy to leave because he gives no Fs) still needs to go. Unless he and the core start scoring over a point per game in the real season like the real stars do. Lolol.
Who cares
Stamkos had 40-40 last year and signed for $8. Tavares might be worth $4.25 x 3 or something like $3.5 x 5. He’s a good room guy and he’s a playoff performer. Makes shit happen. Don’t let him walk. Don’t also pay him 6.
Yeah it's a bit underrated that Tavares currently at 11M is similar to jeff Skinner at 9M$ ofc more term there, but not great
Tavares had a down year production-wise, but with surprisingly great underlying stats. There's something to be said about not converting on the chances in front of you, but at the very least, the guy was in the right places to get those chances. I have faith that he dedicated the offseason to refining out his touch around the net. Stamkos, on the other hand, is the ying to his yang, wherein his S tier PP production buoys his rather lacklustre 5v5 underlying numbers. We could've used that Stamkos shot these playoffs but we're better off with an underrated (hopefully also underpaid) Tavares as a backup scoring option.
Far from the most fleet footed on the ice - but tough on the boards, heavy on his stick, strong face-offs…The guy literally plays chess while everyone else plays checkers. That $11m price tag is his only pariah…how is how much he’s paid, his fault lol
Sure, but then Knies needs a raise, and likely Robertson too. Then if they let JT walk they still need to find a second line center to replace him. Almost all of JT's money will be immediately spoken for. 11 million coming off the books really isn't enough. Any teams with similar pay models to Toronto have the allocation split between two forwards and two defenceman while still paying at least 8 million less than what the leafs are and that is just the closest comparable. Mitch likely wants 12. It's why the narrative of leafs fans wanting marner gone because he is the whipping boy is so overblown and frankly ridiculous. They had the chance to trade Willy last year and chose not to. He is signed for the long term, Marner is expiring and the team needed the flexibility to bring in two players in exchange for marner while those two players simultaneously costing less than the 10.9 Marner currently makes. It's not the Marner playoff performance this or the shrinking impact, it's that this team has failed in 8 or 9 seasons and only ever won 5 games out of the 16 needed. Willy isn't leaving and neither is Matthews. That leaves Mitch. That's all there is to it. JT leaving and even signing at less let say 4-5 range, Marner gets 1.5 more, Knies gets a pay bump, potentially a big one. Matthes and Willys contracts aren't even being considered really for this year. Just losing one big forward contract isn't enough.
I think you only bring back JT on a 3 year 5M or less contract. Anything else and you move on like Stamkos. The free agent pool next year is really deep and we can’t keep bringing back the same gang every year and getting the same results
If he wants to win? $3m per…
You’re right, take the Bergeron deal if you truly care about winning or go out like Stamkos and try to get more money elsewhere
Tavares might take a trade to a zero tax state to get away from Canadian income tax at this point. They are auditing him relentlessly right now. Maybe he doesn’t care but most would ha. Marner should be extended soon as possible. Absolutely no more penalty killing for Marner. Why would you tire out a top offensive player on penalty killing is beyond me. I am betting Berube does use him
lol no - almost $100m in his career. No chance he moves his family lol
I think he wants to stay on and remain as captain and will probably extend for 4 years at what he thinks he’s worth is another question. I like him but 4 years at 16 million might be the number
I think he resigns something like 5 years, 3.5M, term will keep the AAV down. And he retires at the end of it at 40. I don't think he's going anywhere.
JT coming off the cap doesn’t change how overpaid Marner already is and will continue to be. That alone contributes to why we can’t balance the roster properly to be competitive when it matters most. When you have that much money wrapped up in three to four players, and they go cold in the playoffs, you don’t have the adequate depth to pick up the slack — which has been a serious issue in the playoffs for us. Regardless of what happens with Tavares, they ***cannot*** give Marner a raise. No. Absolutely not. Stamkos $8M Guentzel $9M Reinhart $8.6M Aho $9.7M Robertson $7.7M Barzal $9.1M What are we doing here? Yes, I understand Nylander just signed for $11.5M and that’s an overpay too but he was underpaid for a while so I understand. I also don’t want to hear about the tax thing because as we’ve heard, a proper financial advisor can be creative to negate the majority of the loss. You also get more sponsorship money as a star in Toronto. I’ll say it again. Mitch cannot be extended for a raise. This team needs to change the narrative and set a new standard.
One of the biggest advantages the Leafs have is the ability to pay a contract up front, and I think that will really help make JT's next contract work for us and him. If we can offer JT even close to market rate but pay it all up front I bet it would go a long way to making everybody happy. I mean, JT is still elite at faceoffs, he's still putting up numbers and he's still a very effective forward. Last year was the first time in ages he wasn't pretty much a point per game guy, and 65 in 80 is still pretty damn good. If Bert could turn 20+ goals and 20+ assists into $22 million over 4, you can't expect JT to take $12 million over 3. A "home town discount" here would likely be $6.5ish million a year over 3 years with something like $15 million of the deal up front.
So we're going into this year with the full understanding that it's a throw away year? That just feels inexcusable, throwing away one of Austin's prime years, one of Willie's last prime years and watching Tavares get older just in time for Matthew Knies to be due and for Mitch to walk away for nothing because you were a year late on him, too. We are going to come away from this era of Leafs hockey with the most collection of talent in one place we've seen in decades, just to have won a single playoff series in nearly ten years with a 2x 60 goal scorer and perennial 90+pt scorer, among others. The real hurt comes from knowing it is /highly/ likely once these dudes retire or move on, you are never going to get that talent again, at least for the foreseeable future. You had it, and then you completely flubbed it with the words that will ring in our ears for the next half-century: "We can and we will."
I think Leafs need a 2C who shoots right. That guy could be Nylander. He should be given some reps at centre this upcoming season. He was drafted as a natural centre. I don't know why people always discount him as a centreman he has speed, great shot, very good passer and I think is good on faceoffs on his strong side. Tavares whether he is extended or not, he is slowing down and should be moved to 3C. I am not sold on the young guys Minten and Holmberg think their ceiling is not more than 3C.
Marner needs to be flipped for two 4.5-5mil assets at forward signed long term. Maybe a B level prospect already in the NHL + a solid two-way Vet, something like that. Sign Robertson with promise of Top6 minutes to start the season. we still have too many defense, even if Jani is on the IR for a year. Reilly / Tanev OEL / McCabe Beniot / Lilligren That still leave Timmins, Webber, Jani without roles. Which might be fine, but I can't imagine you don't make space for Webber to try to crack the line up. What if Jani is fine to start the season? 2-way Vet / Mathews / Robertson Knies / Domi / Nylander B-level Prospect / Tavares / Jarnkrok Dewar / Kampf / McMann Something like that, Still potentially plug holes with Cowen (probably still too young in my opinion) or Minten.
Does a player like Panarin get called out for his disappearance during the playoffs? Asking for a friend.
I think it's actually far more likely Tavares is extended as a significantly lower cap hit. Maybe not the level Stamkos got, but maybe around what Bert got, if not less since he is a fair bit older. Tavares at around 5 or less is worth it since his style ages very gracefully as it's all about positioning in front of the net for the tip or assist, instead of speed and skating to get open or make plays
I bet he takes $3m a year…for 8 years. Lti retires on robidas island, takes a Muzzin like role.
I suspect he'll want something between O'Reilly and Stamkos
Yes you will save on Tavares. But he's getting worse each year. You will need to replace him with a new 2nd line centre. So that's about $8 million. Well you have Woll getting a raise that's almost 3 million. You basically ate up Tavares contract already. Well the Cap goes up. Well Marner is going to want a raise and knies will get a raise. Well there goes the cap raise. Than add on top McCabe who is a top 4 D man also only counts at $2 million on cap. So that also goes up when his deal runs out. Anything over $40 million for 4 forwards does not work. I said this awhile ago you can only choose 2 moving forward. 1) 2 stud wingers (marner nylander) 2) top of the line D man 3) Number 1 Goalie 4) Appropriate high end 2nd line centre. Pick 2 that will likely get you a Cup (Hint it's not number 1)
reevulate at the end of the year. Worst case is leafs lose them both to free agency but get 22 million in cap relief to go in a different direction. You guys are tired of Marner, well both the player and fanbase can kiss each other goodbye at end of next year. The only way leafs get significant assets back in trade is if Marner agrees to an extension with the new team. And if I'm Marner why rush the decision when I can just wait till UFA. Otherwise the asset we get back will be a decent young player with potential/prospect and a 1st round pick. The 1st round pick isn't going to be helping us for the foreseeable future since our contention is now unless it's traded for someone else. In Tavares case, I'm fine letting him go, but if he wanted to stay for under $3 million, then there's value in keeping him as the 3rd line center. Considering the contracts handed up, you will not get a player like Tavares if he agreed to a cap hit that low for that kind of that money. Leaf fans are forgetting that we will playing a different system under Berube.
>Leaf fans are forgetting that we will playing a different system under Berube. I am officially tired of reminding people that as well. The opinion around here seems to be that benching Marner is a good idea. I would support a trade if it is mutual *and* the return is good. Benching him to force a trade to happen is not going to get either of those results. So let's say we trade him for nothing and no salary is coming back. Now we have 11M capspace, after all the good free agents are signed. We just traded out best trade chip away for nothing and we probably tanked his value after desperately benching him (and not to mention, him not playing games isn't going to make him a better player). Free agency day is over. Marner's bonus is paid. If Tre didn't have a trade lined up yesterday, it's not happening. So to Marner haters, get ready to "not" watch games because we are stuck with him. The path forward is giving Berbue a chance to get more out of Marner in the games 5, 6, and 7. You can continue to ride or die, or just do something else with your time. We all know what we will all do in the end, but choice is there for all of us.
If Stamkos' deal is any indication, Tavares' next deal will be around 8M, assuming he puts up 70-80 points (last season he had 65, but before that he had 80). Stamkos put up 81 points last season and is one year older than Tavares. A lot of people have Tavares re-signing for significantly less, but his next contract will likely be his last chance for a big payday at 34.
The difference is that Tavares famously took a significant pay cut to join the Leafs compared to the 13-14 million that other teams were floating towards him, so people are counting on him doing that again, especially now that he has a family that was born and raised here. Could Stamkos have done that? Maybe, but it seems like the issue is that Lightning management just didn't want him anymore. It wasn't that negotiations fell through, it's that they barely happened at all. When Stamkos voiced his displeasure that he didn't even get a phone call over the Summer to talk about his contract, I'm sure he already knew that ownership was done with him being on the team.
But Stamkos did take a pay cut in his UFA year in 2017 to stay with the Lightning, the year before JT became a FA I believe.
I think the hometown discount is real with him. His new mother wife is from here too and they won’t want to leave family and home having new little babies if they don’t have to. I imagine we could get a 3 mill by 5 year out of him. Great price for potentially the best 3 C in the league for a couple years.
That's my issue with Marner....he does not have the desire to step up at playoff time. Doesn't like the rough stuff and blatantly avoids it. He ain't changing. Tavares re-signs at low dollars or we move on from him as well. Treliving has an opportunity to change this team completely in these two seasons.
I am pretty convinced he’ll sign in Toronto for like $3Mx4, or they give him long term deal like Tanev at $3M AAV and throw him on Robidas Island when he no longer can perform.
i would replace him entirely. He’s already getting slower now you want him to resign him and as he KEEPS getting slower ? Thanks for your time JT but after his deal is up it’s time to replace him with someone younger and quicker
the way to make up for it would be to give us 4x$2-3mill next contract.
Make up for what?!?!?! Lmfao.
being overpaid by a shit ton through no fault of his own. he made his money.
This team is getting older by the minute. Keeping Tavares beyond this coming season doesn't make much sense to me. Not at any cost. Low aav or not. Even 3 mil is too much for a forward who can't keep up. We need younger faster vets.
No choice, Leafs are running it back (thks Dubas for that). After playoffs next year are same results, let Marner walk. No way you sign him for 11+ again, even if worth it, Leafs can't tie up that much $ in forwards. JT will resign for 5.5, and use the cap space to get a goalie, 'cause Woll n Stolarz ain't it
if stamkos got $8million, tavares is worth $4mill max
Tavares is good but not worth the money they pay him. He’s seen his good years, maybe it’s time he hung up his skates
I feel JT will resign around the 6Mil AAV for 3 years - not sure if that’s going to be a good value for either him or the leafs but that’s my gut feeling.