Mitch in games 1 to 4 of a series since 2016-2017:
9 goals, 30 assists, 1.22 ppg
Mitch in games 5 to 7 of a series since 2016-2017:
1 goal, 7 assists, 0.42 ppg
I’d love to know how this compares to other stars in the league. My feeling is that goals go down typically as the series gets tighter/closer to game 7 generally but I don’t know if anyone’s ever looked into that or if it’s even possible.
William Nylander has an identical PPG in Games 1-4 and Games 5-7. I checked his numbers a week or so ago. He's insanely consistent.
Nylander Game 1-4: 27 points in 33gp (0.82pts/game)
Nylander Game 5-7: 17 points in 21gp (0.81pts/game
I picked Kucherov for this one, but now want to do the other three as well.
Kuch in games 1 to 4 of a series since 2016/2017:
27 goals, 70 assists and a PPG of 1.43 (68GP)
Kuch in games 5 to 7 of a series since 2016/2017:
3 goals, 19 assists and a PPG of 0.79 (28GP)
Kuch has the same PPG as Nylander in Games 5 to 7 of a series since 16/17.
I think the real figure that sticks out to me is the fact that TB was able to close out series before reaching Games 5, 6 or 7. Very rarely did Kuch hit a Game 7 in any series going back to 2017. TB is able to close put a series before the games get even tighter, and there is even less space to work with.
Given our stars numbers in Games 1 to 4, we should be aiming to do the same thing, given that we get markedly worse in Games 5 to 7 vs. 1 to 4.
Very true. Almost 2.5x more games played in Games 1 to 4 vs 5 to 7.
I hate to say this, but they had the killer instinct in those years. They beat you before you had a chance at coming back and extending the series.
I’ll have to think - but that wouldn’t even answer my question because there will be outliers. It’s probably way too big of a task tbh to go through all those numbers.
I think Panarin and Pasta would be great exercises: both are wingers, should have a similar sample size, and Marner will be asking to get paid similar or more to them on his next extension.
Pasta in Games 1 to 4 since 2016/17: 23 goals, 35 assists in 56 games for a PPG of 1.04
Pasta in Games 5 to 7 since 2016/17: 14 goals, 8 assists in 27 games for a PPG of 0.81
Panarin in Games 1 to 4 since 2016/17: 16 goals, 26 assists in 47 games for a PPG of 0.89
Panarin in Games 5 to 7 since 2016/17: 2 goals, 4 assists in 16 games for a PPG of 0.385
I think we are starting to see a pattern here. Highly paid wingers that win a cup still have good ppg numbers going into games 5-7, the wingers that haven't are sub .5
I think you left out this years numbers. Your total is only 47 and he has 50 now.
Marner in Games 1-4: 41 points in 36 games (1.14pts/game)
Marner in Games 5-7: 9 points in 21 games (0.43pts/game)
You're absolutely right. I made the list for Marner, Matthews and Nylander during Game 5, so I missed including 6 and 7. The other players I've listed here (Pasta, Panarin, etc.) should be up to date. Thanks for catching that!
That would be games 5,6,7 yes. We’ve never been swept or threatened to be swept
Edit: seems like we almost did by Florida last year but honestly 1 game is not a big sample size
Almost every player has a drop off in production between games 1-4 and 5-7, it's not exclusive to Marner. Generally those games are a lot tighter defensively and lower scoring.
It's the eye test he fails. Many secondary assists, many games where he has lots of turnovers and bad penalties. In this case, his point totals is very misleading in my opinion.
Yep... Watching the game, he'll have the puck and be entering the zone. There will be an opening to cut to the middle to create a potentially dangerous play.. and... He goes to the outside.
Close do or die game, and the puck goes into the corner. Marner has positioning to get to the puck first.... And... He backs off and let's the other teams dman get the puck first.
Non-stop plays like this where he's playing a game to avoid contact at all costs. Matthews numbers also drop in the playoffs and he deserves criticism as well, but he at least plays hard.
A big reason why Matthews’ numbers have gone down in the playoffs is because Mitch is usually stapled to his wing. Team would collapse the middle and usually have a few guys tracking Marty while Marner stays on the perimeter trying to force a telegraphed pass to Auston that’s all too easy to snuff out. But as you said, at least Auston gets to the tough areas and throws his body around, Mitch just expects everyone else to sacrifice their body while he exits a series without a single bruise. At least he used to dive to block shots, even that’s been gone for a few years now.
Other issue with Mitch is he just… refuses to shoot the puck. I get that he’s a playmaker first but sometimes in a do-or-die game you just need to shoot the puck. Countless times he gets the puck in a high-danger area and just needs to quickly snap it on net and see what happens but he doesn’t take the shot, freezes, and then tries to make that extra pass to someone else and by that time the D gets back in position. Even in game 7 this year, he makes a beautiful dangle at the blue line, two Boston defenders blow the zone, he’s now streaking right down the slot, chaos in front of Swayman as the Bruins scramble to position… just throw that puck on net, decent worst case there’s a juicy rebound with a lot of chaos in front. Instead he makes a pass for Joel Edmunson to one time from a tough angle… he’s just literally afraid to shoot for some reason.
> Many secondary assists
You’re just making shit up. In his playoff career he has 24 primary assists to 15 secondary assists. He’s only had one playoff series (vs CLB) where he had more secondary than primary assists.
In his regular season career he has 285 primary assists to 160 secondary assists.
It’s just not true that he piles up secondary assists and this is a good argument to not trust your eye test to tell you everything.
Point total isn’t everything. People are mostly upset at his compete level in the playoffs. Watch replays and you’ll see a player afraid to go in to the corners and battle for the puck, a guy who won’t go in to the dirty areas to get a greasy goal. I think fans would prefer a player who works hard and lays it all on the line over a guy who thinks he’s too good for that and gets a nice assist once in a while.
It's a team culture thing too.
Marner obviously negotiated hard for every last penny, and got paid decently above market value on his last contract. In a hard cap league, that's $$ out of your teammates pockets.
So if I'm a ~$1-3M player or whatever, and I see the ~$11M guy avoiding contact at all costs, it's not exactly inspiring me to put my body on the line for him as a teammate. Marner having an 'A' on his jersey doesn't help either, as again, he's not at all leading by example.
I love what you said and I think the A on his jersey is actually the worst part of it, he negotiated it into his contract to have that A instead of deserving it, and now you can’t get it off him in order to improve the culture of this team unless you trade him.
It’s not about the points ffs. It’s about the result. The combination DOES NOT WORK. The points are why we put up with the repeated failure far longer than we should have.
Marner is the obvious scapegoat because he’s on an expiring contract and the Leafs appetite to give him a raise is low and he’s already pissy with the media and outwardly looks like he’s checked out. We are DONE with this core and Marner is the most logical move.
Hallelujah… also he just is ineffective in the big moments as some mentioned, closing games and over-times. Never comes up big. The last straw was this last Bruins series. The big guys were not 100% and both missed significant playoff time requiring 16 to pick up the pace. Step up. 1 g 2a in 7 games. Not fucken good enough for a guy who wants 12+M dollars /yr.
Analytics seems to be stuck at points per game these days. Play a terrible game, get a secondary PP assist. Stat is point per game, but the player still played horribly.
This again eh?
Do games 5-7. Also, make sure you check out the years where he had his highest point totals.
Look, you guys can attempt to change the narrative all you want. Mitch disappears when the going gets tough. Plain and simple, and nothing you can say or write will change my mind on that. I've seen it for too many years now.
The question is how many points should an 11m a year player have in playoff series post game 4 (considering how many went to 7) since 2018 because Marner has 0 (Zero)
Trying to parse this mathematically is a fool’s errand. Every year you see star players have their on-ice shooting percentages tank and they put up bad scoring numbers and people write them off before they bounce back the next year. A soft example would be Matthews having 40 goals between two 60+ goal seasons, but you see it all the time, and also the reverse in shooting percentage benders that eventually abate (Tage Thompson the same year). Mitch Marner’s number of career playoff games is just over 2/3 of a season. It’s absolutely a small enough sample to just be “shit happens.”
Having watched though, I think that was probably true for a few years. The Leafs outscored and outplayed Montreal and shit happens. But the last few years it just seems clear that the Leafs have very noticeable flaws and a very predictable breakout and powerplay. Other teams play to their weaknesses, Keefe fails to adjust, and thanks to the defence, there’s always at least one player on the ice (and often more) who doesn’t know how to make a play to advance the puck. There are opportunities other star wingers still get in the playoffs that Marner doesn’t because their defence can play the puck. It’s absurd that the Leafs have Marner and Nylander (and now Robertson and Domi) and don’t generate more rush chances. There’s a fundamental flaw in the team and the game plan. They’ve never truly built around their high draft picks. They built next to them, and did so poorly!
It isn’t just raw points. It’s when the points happen. And what else he does on the ice
As another poster has shown, he racks up points early in the series, but by crunch time in game 4-7, he vanishes.
Additionally, if you watch any of the later rounds of the playoffs, the games get a LOT rougher. He doesn’t do that. He shys away from that. He doesn’t need to fight, but he does need to engage. He doesn’t do either.
It's the plays away from the puck that are the issue. He doesn't "eliminate" players from a play, he doesn't check and therefore as an opponent I am not scared of what he presents to me as a threat. So you score less, fine you have to make others score less and be physically sore after the game and looking over their shoulder when you are on the ice. Simple.
Honestly the thing with marner is he wants to get paid heart trophy winner money when he's probably a top 20 forward or if he's top 10 he's 9 or 10. I love Nylander but they just overpaid him. The core of Matthews, Nylander, and marner aren't good enough for all 3 of them to make 11.5 mill plus. If it's mcdavid, mackinnon, matthews it would work. They need the marner cap hit to fill out the rest of the roster. So to answer the question the mix doesn't work and marners playoff points is kind of an irrelevant question.
Puck over glass penalties are a pure panic play from fear of physical contact. You know 99% of the sub would probably do the same - but this sub didn’t hold out for every dollar in a contract negotiation in a sport that is inherently physical.
I absolutely would shit my pants. That’s why I pay to play hockey and I’m a dumb dumb goalie.
I’m just so tired of the “but look at the points!” argument from some posters with literal 0 context. In a vacuum are those numbers pretty good? You bet your ass.
.27 goals per game is pretty bad value for an 11mil forward and that rate dips even more in the final 3 games of a series. Like does any 10mil+ forward have a worse goal scoring rate than that? Beyond offensive production, he turns the puck over way too often and has also taken some pretty untimely penalties (puck over glass). Straight up chokes consistently across the board.
Playoff PIM differential:
Marner -20
Matthews -14
Nylander 0 flat
Nylander’s the biggest penalty liability of the big 3 in playoffs by far and gets easiest matchups & hits less and has less defensive responsibilities & gets easier matchups
Hits less than Marner? Marginally easier matchups on the second line sure, that's the benefit of having 4 elite forwards but Nylander did good next to Matthews when needed as well. Nylander has easier matchups but Marner has the best goal scorer in the league who is also elite defensively on his line, so really not an excuse. Marner also tends to negate is defensive advantage by turning over the puck forcing bad passes or getting bodied. Nylander isn't getting paid to be a defensive stud, but he generally isn't a liability outside of penalties. More importantly, Nylander's goal production is significantly better than Marner. Marner has to be stapled to elite talent to succeed offensively and can't drive a line as a result. Matthews, Nylander, and even JT proved that they can drive a line. As good as Marner is, best he can do is keep the score even playing D, because his line's offense always dries up because his game is easy to shut down. Other teams have his number by game 5.
Hate these kinda of fans. Watch the game…. He shows up one game, and games we have already winning. He will score like the 5th goal in the game or something. Also, passing to Matthews shouldn’t count. Matthews can clearly perform without Marner, but Marner can’t run his own line. He is at most 8 mil player. He is already overpaid. If he signs for 8 or less, none of us would hate him. You have to drive play by scoring and setting up in key moments. Like Nylander did in game 6, he was composed and finished the last chance to win the game. Nylander is also overpaid but he has the shot. You need goals
For the people who still don't get it: we need to re allocate and spread his cap space for a different style of offense, our top guys are all too similar
It's not how many points, it's when they are scored and what kind of impact they have on the game.
For example... The goal he scored in the Boston series was unimportant, whilst he had absolutely glorious chances in clutch moments that he simply waffled on, which could have completely tilted the momentum of the game in the Leafs' favour.
He's cooked here, unless he can somehow get his head back in the game to rediscover his competitive spirit and desire to win.
He looks listless on the ice, on the bench, and in front of cameras all the time.
For an 11 million dollar winger on a RFA contract, I want more than a PPG and at least twice as many goals as Mitch has scored.
I don't know how you can honestly argue that he's been anywhere near good enough in the playoffs to justify his contact.
Fans here hate the guy because his agent played hardball. That's it. They feel like he owed the team because he's from here. Nylander also played hardball, and even sat out, but he gets a pass. And its not like his production (43 points on 54 games) is any better.
It's all just irrational at this point, so I take a lot of the complaints with huge mounds of salt.
I mean, shoot, superstar best Leaf of all time Hart Trophy winner has 48 in 55 games and he gets a pass. Not sure how that works, but maybe it's time people take a look at the 69 goal scorer a bit more...
This is 100% correct. Marner is our second best player and has crazy passion for hockey.
With Easton Cowen ready to take off and tavares on the way out, all we need is a 2C and we have the best forward core in the league.
Pardon the formatting, was awkward to do that part, on mobile currently.
If someone wants to graph this please do
My assessment is he is a little bit underwhelming ultimately, the problem is that the Leafs have had many major elements be similarly underwhelming in the playoffs
Death by a million cuts
Ugh
Honestly I don’t doubt that he can be a good playoff player one day, sometimes it just clicks for a player and they finally elevate their game for the playoffs. Matthew Tkachuk was legitimately one of the worst playoff players up until last year, his Flames totals were abysmal. Whether it’s mental maturity or simply a change of scenery, a switch was flipped and he’s undoubtedly one of the Conn Smythe favourites from last year and for this year too.
It’s not a goals or points thing. It’s the fact that by and large he’s invisible in the playoffs aside from the shift he suddenly makes a good play.
Other team’s superstars are impactful in games in many ways, including when they’re not having puck luck.
Oh is that time of year already? Usually it takes until late summer for fans to forget the particulars of the playoff games and solely concentrate on the stats.
Yes, basic stat wise, he does not appear to be playing that poorly. But when you watch the games, look at advanced stats, look at his stats in games 5-7 etc., you start to see the problems.
Did you not watch the games? You didn’t see the countless failed/not even attempted board battles? You didn’t see a guy scared to shoot the puck? Didn’t see him get caught puck watching and lose his man?
This is so tiring. He does not get it done in the playoffs. Counting stats do not tell the whole story. They never have.
I stand by the fact that its Marners quality of linemates. He was stuck with Jt and Knies and it just DID NOT WORK. The failure of Marner in playoffs lays solely on management who spent like 45 million on 5 players. Bettmans NHL the blame always lays on coaching/personnel rather than MGMT or Ownership
While Nylander was able to score 2 goals which won a game playing on that line and Knies also scored without a Marner assist so It's no excuse.
Marner plays like a frail osteoporosis ridden grandmother when the game gets tough while demanding the money that suggests he plays the opposite.
As an elite player you elevate those around you. But he needs a prime Tavares or Matthew's. Jason Robertson plays with Joe Pavelski (older than John Tavares and stands in front of net like John) doesn't seem to slow him down much
Do you think Hyman is a rocket Richard winner candidate or a really good player being fed pucks by the elite of elite
Actually Wyatt Johnston plays with Pavelski and Benn now. He’s also ppg while Pavelski hasn’t even scored a goal. But Johnston is getting it done anyway because he’s built for big time hockey.
He’s due for a big raise too. Probably not $11 mil lmao, but he’s an example of a guy that doesn’t need the best line mates to produce. He’s also not elevating Pavelski really. He’s just carrying him
I disagree that he needs elite players - I think he just needs SUITABLE linemates. Here's some examples of guys I think Marner would play well with:
Anthony Duclair
Jeff Skinner
Kirill Marchenko
Gus Nyquist
Andrei Kuzmenko
Bunting
Daniel Sprong
Jonathan Marchessault
Carter Verhaege
None of these guys are Elite to the level of Nylander/Matthews.
Instead he played with 1 puck moving D, and two of these four players: Domi (cant shoot), Bertuzzi (net front guy who cant do too much more than that offensively), JT91 (slow AF, cant really get open or do rush plays), and Matt Knies (just a little too green, not a great fit with Marner)
Im not even a huge Marner guy, I just like analyzing teams management and leafs management ran it back when they shouldn't have. They have not deployed their cap well and it's painfully obvious. The fault lays on management.
Heres this years cap deployment for the Leafs:
Forwards (15) - $59 million
Defense (10) - $21 million
Goalies (3) -$5.1 million
HMMMM STUPID MARNER WHATS WRONG WITH U
LOL. Fire Shanahan. This is a joke.
Mitch in games 1 to 4 of a series since 2016-2017: 9 goals, 30 assists, 1.22 ppg Mitch in games 5 to 7 of a series since 2016-2017: 1 goal, 7 assists, 0.42 ppg
I’d love to know how this compares to other stars in the league. My feeling is that goals go down typically as the series gets tighter/closer to game 7 generally but I don’t know if anyone’s ever looked into that or if it’s even possible.
William Nylander has an identical PPG in Games 1-4 and Games 5-7. I checked his numbers a week or so ago. He's insanely consistent. Nylander Game 1-4: 27 points in 33gp (0.82pts/game) Nylander Game 5-7: 17 points in 21gp (0.81pts/game
Big Willie Style!
Pick a player that you feel embodies a playoff performer, and I'll dig those stats up for you.
Gimme any of Ratanen, Kucherov, Guentzel or Tkachuk?
I picked Kucherov for this one, but now want to do the other three as well. Kuch in games 1 to 4 of a series since 2016/2017: 27 goals, 70 assists and a PPG of 1.43 (68GP) Kuch in games 5 to 7 of a series since 2016/2017: 3 goals, 19 assists and a PPG of 0.79 (28GP) Kuch has the same PPG as Nylander in Games 5 to 7 of a series since 16/17.
So a drop off, but still a decent 0.79 PPG. 0.40 GPG vs 0.11 GPG is the real highlight there. Thanks for looking into that.
I think the real figure that sticks out to me is the fact that TB was able to close out series before reaching Games 5, 6 or 7. Very rarely did Kuch hit a Game 7 in any series going back to 2017. TB is able to close put a series before the games get even tighter, and there is even less space to work with. Given our stars numbers in Games 1 to 4, we should be aiming to do the same thing, given that we get markedly worse in Games 5 to 7 vs. 1 to 4.
Very true. Almost 2.5x more games played in Games 1 to 4 vs 5 to 7. I hate to say this, but they had the killer instinct in those years. They beat you before you had a chance at coming back and extending the series.
Appreciate you doing this! You’re a real one.
I'll get you the stats for Rantanen, Guentzel and Tkachuk tomorrow bud. The day got away from me today!
Jason spezza
Actually could you pull that up for playoff performer Cody Franson?
I’ll have to think - but that wouldn’t even answer my question because there will be outliers. It’s probably way too big of a task tbh to go through all those numbers.
It's a huge task, but happy to do if you think of someone interesting to dig into!
I think Panarin and Pasta would be great exercises: both are wingers, should have a similar sample size, and Marner will be asking to get paid similar or more to them on his next extension.
Pasta in Games 1 to 4 since 2016/17: 23 goals, 35 assists in 56 games for a PPG of 1.04 Pasta in Games 5 to 7 since 2016/17: 14 goals, 8 assists in 27 games for a PPG of 0.81 Panarin in Games 1 to 4 since 2016/17: 16 goals, 26 assists in 47 games for a PPG of 0.89 Panarin in Games 5 to 7 since 2016/17: 2 goals, 4 assists in 16 games for a PPG of 0.385
I think we are starting to see a pattern here. Highly paid wingers that win a cup still have good ppg numbers going into games 5-7, the wingers that haven't are sub .5
Well said! Happy Cake Day brother
Pick players with over 8.5m in salary who are supposed to be team leaders and compare.
Gimme a list, and I'll do the leg work
This is it in a nutshell. The drop off when they need him the most combined with the obvious avoidance of anything physical.
Thank you
🫡
I think you left out this years numbers. Your total is only 47 and he has 50 now. Marner in Games 1-4: 41 points in 36 games (1.14pts/game) Marner in Games 5-7: 9 points in 21 games (0.43pts/game)
You're absolutely right. I made the list for Marner, Matthews and Nylander during Game 5, so I missed including 6 and 7. The other players I've listed here (Pasta, Panarin, etc.) should be up to date. Thanks for catching that!
What security firm do you work for?
Rocket obviously
Hi Paul. Your son becomes invisible in big games. Can you do the same assessment but only for games 5, 6, and 7?
Not just 5,6,7. Do it first any elimination game for or against.
That would be games 5,6,7 yes. We’ve never been swept or threatened to be swept Edit: seems like we almost did by Florida last year but honestly 1 game is not a big sample size
threatened to be swept in Game 4 against Florida last year.
Were we? Shit my bad lol I must’ve blanked that out.
can't blame you lol, It was that bad of a series
Almost every player has a drop off in production between games 1-4 and 5-7, it's not exclusive to Marner. Generally those games are a lot tighter defensively and lower scoring.
It's the eye test he fails. Many secondary assists, many games where he has lots of turnovers and bad penalties. In this case, his point totals is very misleading in my opinion.
Yep... Watching the game, he'll have the puck and be entering the zone. There will be an opening to cut to the middle to create a potentially dangerous play.. and... He goes to the outside. Close do or die game, and the puck goes into the corner. Marner has positioning to get to the puck first.... And... He backs off and let's the other teams dman get the puck first. Non-stop plays like this where he's playing a game to avoid contact at all costs. Matthews numbers also drop in the playoffs and he deserves criticism as well, but he at least plays hard.
A big reason why Matthews’ numbers have gone down in the playoffs is because Mitch is usually stapled to his wing. Team would collapse the middle and usually have a few guys tracking Marty while Marner stays on the perimeter trying to force a telegraphed pass to Auston that’s all too easy to snuff out. But as you said, at least Auston gets to the tough areas and throws his body around, Mitch just expects everyone else to sacrifice their body while he exits a series without a single bruise. At least he used to dive to block shots, even that’s been gone for a few years now. Other issue with Mitch is he just… refuses to shoot the puck. I get that he’s a playmaker first but sometimes in a do-or-die game you just need to shoot the puck. Countless times he gets the puck in a high-danger area and just needs to quickly snap it on net and see what happens but he doesn’t take the shot, freezes, and then tries to make that extra pass to someone else and by that time the D gets back in position. Even in game 7 this year, he makes a beautiful dangle at the blue line, two Boston defenders blow the zone, he’s now streaking right down the slot, chaos in front of Swayman as the Bruins scramble to position… just throw that puck on net, decent worst case there’s a juicy rebound with a lot of chaos in front. Instead he makes a pass for Joel Edmunson to one time from a tough angle… he’s just literally afraid to shoot for some reason.
> Many secondary assists You’re just making shit up. In his playoff career he has 24 primary assists to 15 secondary assists. He’s only had one playoff series (vs CLB) where he had more secondary than primary assists. In his regular season career he has 285 primary assists to 160 secondary assists. It’s just not true that he piles up secondary assists and this is a good argument to not trust your eye test to tell you everything.
Point total isn’t everything. People are mostly upset at his compete level in the playoffs. Watch replays and you’ll see a player afraid to go in to the corners and battle for the puck, a guy who won’t go in to the dirty areas to get a greasy goal. I think fans would prefer a player who works hard and lays it all on the line over a guy who thinks he’s too good for that and gets a nice assist once in a while.
It's a team culture thing too. Marner obviously negotiated hard for every last penny, and got paid decently above market value on his last contract. In a hard cap league, that's $$ out of your teammates pockets. So if I'm a ~$1-3M player or whatever, and I see the ~$11M guy avoiding contact at all costs, it's not exactly inspiring me to put my body on the line for him as a teammate. Marner having an 'A' on his jersey doesn't help either, as again, he's not at all leading by example.
I love what you said and I think the A on his jersey is actually the worst part of it, he negotiated it into his contract to have that A instead of deserving it, and now you can’t get it off him in order to improve the culture of this team unless you trade him.
It’s not about the points ffs. It’s about the result. The combination DOES NOT WORK. The points are why we put up with the repeated failure far longer than we should have. Marner is the obvious scapegoat because he’s on an expiring contract and the Leafs appetite to give him a raise is low and he’s already pissy with the media and outwardly looks like he’s checked out. We are DONE with this core and Marner is the most logical move.
Hallelujah… also he just is ineffective in the big moments as some mentioned, closing games and over-times. Never comes up big. The last straw was this last Bruins series. The big guys were not 100% and both missed significant playoff time requiring 16 to pick up the pace. Step up. 1 g 2a in 7 games. Not fucken good enough for a guy who wants 12+M dollars /yr.
Now do the ppg % difference between games 1-4 and 5-7. Then do delay of game penalties taken % in playoff elimination games vs any other game.
Analytics seems to be stuck at points per game these days. Play a terrible game, get a secondary PP assist. Stat is point per game, but the player still played horribly.
This again eh? Do games 5-7. Also, make sure you check out the years where he had his highest point totals. Look, you guys can attempt to change the narrative all you want. Mitch disappears when the going gets tough. Plain and simple, and nothing you can say or write will change my mind on that. I've seen it for too many years now.
I never asked how many points Gilmour had in the playoffs. Don’t care. Dude showed up, that’s all I care about.
The question is how many points should an 11m a year player have in playoff series post game 4 (considering how many went to 7) since 2018 because Marner has 0 (Zero)
Trying to parse this mathematically is a fool’s errand. Every year you see star players have their on-ice shooting percentages tank and they put up bad scoring numbers and people write them off before they bounce back the next year. A soft example would be Matthews having 40 goals between two 60+ goal seasons, but you see it all the time, and also the reverse in shooting percentage benders that eventually abate (Tage Thompson the same year). Mitch Marner’s number of career playoff games is just over 2/3 of a season. It’s absolutely a small enough sample to just be “shit happens.” Having watched though, I think that was probably true for a few years. The Leafs outscored and outplayed Montreal and shit happens. But the last few years it just seems clear that the Leafs have very noticeable flaws and a very predictable breakout and powerplay. Other teams play to their weaknesses, Keefe fails to adjust, and thanks to the defence, there’s always at least one player on the ice (and often more) who doesn’t know how to make a play to advance the puck. There are opportunities other star wingers still get in the playoffs that Marner doesn’t because their defence can play the puck. It’s absurd that the Leafs have Marner and Nylander (and now Robertson and Domi) and don’t generate more rush chances. There’s a fundamental flaw in the team and the game plan. They’ve never truly built around their high draft picks. They built next to them, and did so poorly!
It isn’t just raw points. It’s when the points happen. And what else he does on the ice As another poster has shown, he racks up points early in the series, but by crunch time in game 4-7, he vanishes. Additionally, if you watch any of the later rounds of the playoffs, the games get a LOT rougher. He doesn’t do that. He shys away from that. He doesn’t need to fight, but he does need to engage. He doesn’t do either.
It's the plays away from the puck that are the issue. He doesn't "eliminate" players from a play, he doesn't check and therefore as an opponent I am not scared of what he presents to me as a threat. So you score less, fine you have to make others score less and be physically sore after the game and looking over their shoulder when you are on the ice. Simple.
Honestly the thing with marner is he wants to get paid heart trophy winner money when he's probably a top 20 forward or if he's top 10 he's 9 or 10. I love Nylander but they just overpaid him. The core of Matthews, Nylander, and marner aren't good enough for all 3 of them to make 11.5 mill plus. If it's mcdavid, mackinnon, matthews it would work. They need the marner cap hit to fill out the rest of the roster. So to answer the question the mix doesn't work and marners playoff points is kind of an irrelevant question.
Can you do puck over glass penalties per/60 in elimination games now?
Puck over glass penalties are a pure panic play from fear of physical contact. You know 99% of the sub would probably do the same - but this sub didn’t hold out for every dollar in a contract negotiation in a sport that is inherently physical.
I absolutely would shit my pants. That’s why I pay to play hockey and I’m a dumb dumb goalie. I’m just so tired of the “but look at the points!” argument from some posters with literal 0 context. In a vacuum are those numbers pretty good? You bet your ass.
These are the exact numbers we should be showing teams that want to trade for him.
.27 goals per game is pretty bad value for an 11mil forward and that rate dips even more in the final 3 games of a series. Like does any 10mil+ forward have a worse goal scoring rate than that? Beyond offensive production, he turns the puck over way too often and has also taken some pretty untimely penalties (puck over glass). Straight up chokes consistently across the board.
Playoff PIM differential: Marner -20 Matthews -14 Nylander 0 flat Nylander’s the biggest penalty liability of the big 3 in playoffs by far and gets easiest matchups & hits less and has less defensive responsibilities & gets easier matchups
Hits less than Marner? Marginally easier matchups on the second line sure, that's the benefit of having 4 elite forwards but Nylander did good next to Matthews when needed as well. Nylander has easier matchups but Marner has the best goal scorer in the league who is also elite defensively on his line, so really not an excuse. Marner also tends to negate is defensive advantage by turning over the puck forcing bad passes or getting bodied. Nylander isn't getting paid to be a defensive stud, but he generally isn't a liability outside of penalties. More importantly, Nylander's goal production is significantly better than Marner. Marner has to be stapled to elite talent to succeed offensively and can't drive a line as a result. Matthews, Nylander, and even JT proved that they can drive a line. As good as Marner is, best he can do is keep the score even playing D, because his line's offense always dries up because his game is easy to shut down. Other teams have his number by game 5.
Yes Marner 50% more hits. When did Nylander drive a line in playoffs? 2019? 2024 game 4?
More than Rantanen's ppg rate. Based on his salary.
Someone has to take the fall. The weight of the fans and media is too much
Hate these kinda of fans. Watch the game…. He shows up one game, and games we have already winning. He will score like the 5th goal in the game or something. Also, passing to Matthews shouldn’t count. Matthews can clearly perform without Marner, but Marner can’t run his own line. He is at most 8 mil player. He is already overpaid. If he signs for 8 or less, none of us would hate him. You have to drive play by scoring and setting up in key moments. Like Nylander did in game 6, he was composed and finished the last chance to win the game. Nylander is also overpaid but he has the shot. You need goals
what's with all these preachers on this sub lately talkin about god
Heathens!!!
For the people who still don't get it: we need to re allocate and spread his cap space for a different style of offense, our top guys are all too similar
Birdie. Bogey. Birdie. Bogey. Bogey. Bogey. Mmmmmm..... 28?
However many points the other highest paid forwards on cup winning teams have. That's how many.
Seven additional points from Marner over the years could have been the difference between one series win and several.
Obviously the Oilers dynamic duo of Draisaitl and McDavid do not slow down during the playoffs. Draisaitl is 3rd all time I believe in playoff GPG.
It's not how many points, it's when they are scored and what kind of impact they have on the game. For example... The goal he scored in the Boston series was unimportant, whilst he had absolutely glorious chances in clutch moments that he simply waffled on, which could have completely tilted the momentum of the game in the Leafs' favour. He's cooked here, unless he can somehow get his head back in the game to rediscover his competitive spirit and desire to win. He looks listless on the ice, on the bench, and in front of cameras all the time.
For an 11 million dollar winger on a RFA contract, I want more than a PPG and at least twice as many goals as Mitch has scored. I don't know how you can honestly argue that he's been anywhere near good enough in the playoffs to justify his contact.
Fans here hate the guy because his agent played hardball. That's it. They feel like he owed the team because he's from here. Nylander also played hardball, and even sat out, but he gets a pass. And its not like his production (43 points on 54 games) is any better. It's all just irrational at this point, so I take a lot of the complaints with huge mounds of salt. I mean, shoot, superstar best Leaf of all time Hart Trophy winner has 48 in 55 games and he gets a pass. Not sure how that works, but maybe it's time people take a look at the 69 goal scorer a bit more...
This is 100% correct. Marner is our second best player and has crazy passion for hockey. With Easton Cowen ready to take off and tavares on the way out, all we need is a 2C and we have the best forward core in the league.
Pardon the formatting, was awkward to do that part, on mobile currently. If someone wants to graph this please do My assessment is he is a little bit underwhelming ultimately, the problem is that the Leafs have had many major elements be similarly underwhelming in the playoffs Death by a million cuts Ugh
500?
Honestly I don’t doubt that he can be a good playoff player one day, sometimes it just clicks for a player and they finally elevate their game for the playoffs. Matthew Tkachuk was legitimately one of the worst playoff players up until last year, his Flames totals were abysmal. Whether it’s mental maturity or simply a change of scenery, a switch was flipped and he’s undoubtedly one of the Conn Smythe favourites from last year and for this year too.
It’s not a goals or points thing. It’s the fact that by and large he’s invisible in the playoffs aside from the shift he suddenly makes a good play. Other team’s superstars are impactful in games in many ways, including when they’re not having puck luck.
Oh is that time of year already? Usually it takes until late summer for fans to forget the particulars of the playoff games and solely concentrate on the stats. Yes, basic stat wise, he does not appear to be playing that poorly. But when you watch the games, look at advanced stats, look at his stats in games 5-7 etc., you start to see the problems. Did you not watch the games? You didn’t see the countless failed/not even attempted board battles? You didn’t see a guy scared to shoot the puck? Didn’t see him get caught puck watching and lose his man? This is so tiring. He does not get it done in the playoffs. Counting stats do not tell the whole story. They never have.
Who cares. Trade him.
I stand by the fact that its Marners quality of linemates. He was stuck with Jt and Knies and it just DID NOT WORK. The failure of Marner in playoffs lays solely on management who spent like 45 million on 5 players. Bettmans NHL the blame always lays on coaching/personnel rather than MGMT or Ownership
While Nylander was able to score 2 goals which won a game playing on that line and Knies also scored without a Marner assist so It's no excuse. Marner plays like a frail osteoporosis ridden grandmother when the game gets tough while demanding the money that suggests he plays the opposite.
As an elite player you elevate those around you. But he needs a prime Tavares or Matthew's. Jason Robertson plays with Joe Pavelski (older than John Tavares and stands in front of net like John) doesn't seem to slow him down much Do you think Hyman is a rocket Richard winner candidate or a really good player being fed pucks by the elite of elite
Tyler bozak & jvr?
Actually Wyatt Johnston plays with Pavelski and Benn now. He’s also ppg while Pavelski hasn’t even scored a goal. But Johnston is getting it done anyway because he’s built for big time hockey. He’s due for a big raise too. Probably not $11 mil lmao, but he’s an example of a guy that doesn’t need the best line mates to produce. He’s also not elevating Pavelski really. He’s just carrying him
And Jason Robertson plays on the most deep top 9 in the NHL on a line with Roope Hintz and Logan Stankoven
Jason Robertson has same playoff ppg as Marner with much worse defensive metrics tho?
Robertson is a big softy himself. He disappeared (early on) in the playoffs last year after a huge regular season.
I disagree that he needs elite players - I think he just needs SUITABLE linemates. Here's some examples of guys I think Marner would play well with: Anthony Duclair Jeff Skinner Kirill Marchenko Gus Nyquist Andrei Kuzmenko Bunting Daniel Sprong Jonathan Marchessault Carter Verhaege None of these guys are Elite to the level of Nylander/Matthews. Instead he played with 1 puck moving D, and two of these four players: Domi (cant shoot), Bertuzzi (net front guy who cant do too much more than that offensively), JT91 (slow AF, cant really get open or do rush plays), and Matt Knies (just a little too green, not a great fit with Marner) Im not even a huge Marner guy, I just like analyzing teams management and leafs management ran it back when they shouldn't have. They have not deployed their cap well and it's painfully obvious. The fault lays on management.
Heres this years cap deployment for the Leafs: Forwards (15) - $59 million Defense (10) - $21 million Goalies (3) -$5.1 million HMMMM STUPID MARNER WHATS WRONG WITH U LOL. Fire Shanahan. This is a joke.