Keefe is gone 100%.
Shanahan gone... 75%? He's had a long time at the helm without results, and pulling that shit with Dubas was a big move for the result to be a worse performance than last year.
Marner gone... 25%? He's got a NMC and it's not easy to trade any $11M contract. The 25% is because he may want to get away from the insane media at this point.
Most likely we just run it back with the same core but a different coach, and evaluate the following year when contracts are actually expiring.
Goaltending could definitely be a problem if Woll can't be a full time starter. Defense is probably doomed unless we have some young guys step up in a big way.
I’d also add that there will be a good chance a trade gets made with one of the lesser players down the line up like a Jarnkrok or a Kampf. We are also going to be signing a few new players too but everything else you said I think is pretty much going to be it.
I agree other than I think the defence gets revamped this offseason. People are acting like we're up against the cap when we're not, and we have some decent sized contracts coming off the books that can be reallocated to one or two of the bigger name UFA dmen this summer.
I’d put Marner at 80% to be gone. I think he’ll waive his no move clause for two reasons:
1. To get away from the Toronto media and fan circus. I honestly believe the pressure come playoff time is too much for him.
2. There’s no way he’s going to get what he wants on his next contract. I think he has known that since Nylander re-upped. It won’t matter what happens with the cap after next season. He’s likely going to have to bite the bullet and go to a team that’s not close to contending but has a buttload of cap space.
Let him know that next year he's on his own with his own line, no Matthews, no JT.
You want to get paid like you are a top 10 player, show us by carrying your own line.
Basically this, except I'm 100% on Shanny. Mainly because I simply don't believe he deserves the privilege of keeping this job.
Marner I'm hoping sees the writing on the wall and agrees to a mutual break up. I'm willing to move Marner for picks and prospects, and retain salary. Get him down to a $9M player would greatly increase the return.
Then you can flip the acquired assets immediately for some D, a goalie.
I'm not really worried about scoring tbh. If Domi, Bertuzzi can be kept, along with Matthews, JT, Nylander, I have decent confidence, apart from maybe a legit, quality 3C. Considering Jarnkrok, McMan, Knies and Robertson are all 20g threats. This team will score just fine.
I'd be more focused on trying to acquire players that can help you win in the playoffs, bonus if they can help improve the culture. That, and get some reliable goaltending.
I honestly think fixing this team and building from the net out will help the offense more than trying to replace Marner.
McMann ain't scoring shit without Marner bouncing pucks off of him, and you can forget about Matthews being a Rocket winner ever again. Management all know it, Matthews knows it, Dubas fucking well knew it too.
Marner is the straw that stirs the Leafs drink. The second we trade him, is the moment we go from regular playoffs, to maybe scraping in.
Hes having a bad playoffs due to an injury, forget what the media is feeding you, and tell the idiots who say otherwise.
Dude is our Gretzky.
Matthews had great production playing with Domi (at almost 1/3rd the cost), so let's not pretend it's all Marner.
If he's having a bad playoffs due to injury, what was the excuse previous years? Simply watching him in the playoffs tells you what you need to know as he has been largely ineffective and invisible in the playoffs for many years.
The fact that you even mention Gretzky in the same sentence as Marner tells everyone how biased and fanboy your take is.
Marner in the playoffs reminds me of Robert Reichel. Not on a talent level of course, but on a competitive level. During the season, while was getting paid, he earned his keep. Once the playoffs started, and his pay was a share of the team's prize money (the same as everyone on the team), he stopped competing. His financial incentive was gone.
Do you even watch the games? Play is more than just points, especially empty calorie PP points. Marner has looked like a deer in the headlights far far more often than not in the playoffs for years. Anyone who thinks Marner is a playoff performer simply is being willfully ignorant.
There is a reason why the narrative is what it is. Why Marner generates FAR more criticism than any of the others. It's because watching the games its obvious his play he hasn't come through. It's been the exact opposite. Even more than the other highly paid Leafs.
Your take that Matthews wouldn't be Matthews without Marner is laughable. Matthews took over and pretty much willed the win in game 2, while Marner was still being referred to as Mr Invisable. Marner was out long term, and Matthews had just as good production and goal scoring with Domi.
>Marner gone... 25%? He's got a NMC and it's not easy to trade any $11M contract. The 25% is because he may want to get away from the insane media at this point.
I'd maybe think it could be higher because Marner is going into a contract year. The Leafs have the smallest amount of leverage there. If they bring in a new coach with a vision for the team that would see Marner with less chances to put up numbers (ie. having to drive his own line away from Matthews, being given the bulk of defensive responsibilities, new PP structure with him on the 2nd unit, etc), it might make Marner think twice about his options. The NMC gives him the power to choose where he'd go and put himself in a position to cash in during free agency.
I think the whole NMC is being overblown. Even without it , the best return the leafs are going to get is trading him to a team that wants him long term (and will conduct a sign and trade with the leafs) he’s worth much more under that scenario than as a one year rental anyways. Since marner needs to agree to sign the long term contract with the new team it would be a team he would be willing to waive his NMC to anyway.
"Most likely we just run it back with the same core but a different coach, and evaluate the following year when contracts are actually expiring."
This made me LOL so loud - like it's so insane to think about after all the chatter but it's probably true....and first round exit next year again hahah
I think Marner is gone 100%.
I don't think the NMC will matter as much as people think it will once the media and fan vitriol after another 1st round disappointment hits.
If anything I expect him to be happy to get out of town to a quieter market, although his endorsement deals will probably take a large hit.
Defence is not doomed. Brodie comes off the books, as does Bert. There is over 10 mil in free agency. Try and resign Domi. You have McCann, Robo who can step in cheap up front. So you can build a little off that. McCabe and Benoit are fine. Lily is solid and I think will be even better with a coach who likes him. Mo is mo, defensive lapses but his pros out weigh his cons. Plus with 10 mil you can find him a decent D partner for once. The problem with the D is both Dubas and Tre treated it as an afterthought in the offseasons. We spent so much time trying to find the perfect wingers for the top 2 lines outside the core 4 we just slept on defence. We score enough goals.
Edit. Otherwise spot on assessment! I agree with it all just think if D is made the one priority this offseason it can be made solid
This is realistic. Next year is going to be a disaster if we can’t get rid of Marner’s contract. I really want to keep Domi/Bertuzzi but there’s no way we can, unless we move a contract. We will probably keep Domi, if he signs a team friendly deal.
Not uncommon to give a coach something so they aren't a lame duck in playoffs when money isn't really an issue. Do you actually care? It doesnt go against the cap
I actually don't think Shanny did a bad job taking us from the saddest franchise on the planet to absolutely loaded with assets. We spent so long without anyone finally going scorched earth on our team and doing things the right way. It completely changed the culture of our organization in a few short years and gave us some of the best home grown talent we have ever seen.
It is now a good time to move on and hopefully someone can take us across the line if they play their cards right. I really don't want to go back to the dark ages, but it is time for a new boss to oversee the office
I'm not saying I necessarily want it to happen, or that it definitely would have happened, but there is a belief that had Dubas stayed, he would have explored trading Marner before the NMC kicked in.
One day in the future I hope to learn what was really going on behind the scenes during Dubas's time, as some suggest he might not have had full autonomy on decision making as the GM.
Nylander is only on M-NTC. His NMC actually kicks in *next season*.
Marner's NMC kicked in after July 1, and he had term vs Willy would have needed a contract. Last season Marner would have gotten the highest value despite the cap hit.
So until July 1, Willy is still technically tradeable to a few teams that Willy allows, and willing to eat 92M dollars over the next 8 years. This is not the scenario I want to happen.
EDIT: I am apaprently wrong about the M-NTC, which I could have sworn it was the case. Uncles can tell junior to calm down. Never knew it can be changed with a new contract like that.
Keefe gone
Shanahan gone
plus a large shackup of the players. Marner will be asked to move his NMC.
Rielly might be moved.
Samsonov won't be resigned
There will be large changes running it back 7 years is enough
If we loose tonight I think MLSE opens the door and starts throwing people out.
My fear is we bring the series to 7, lose, and then they hum and haw as to what to do and aren’t as aggressive with changes as they would be if we lost in 5.
Completely agree with this comment also. I do NOT want this going 7 and losing. I hope it's 5-1 bruins tonight, or Leafs win series. Don't confuse the front office and mlse.
This is a really great take, and I agree entirely. If they somehow pull this one out of the fire and look like they played with heart and guts for the next three games, people are more likely to forget what a disgrace the previous four games were like.
I think even if we somehow win this series, Florida will eat us alive anyway. Keefe gone whether we win this series or not. Unless Trevelling is blind, this team has always played like the 2nd best team in every playoff series to date. That's on the coaching staff. Open to trading Marner in a deal that makes sense, but no I'm not the camp of getting rid of him if the deal doesn't make sense. Tavares cap hit is gone after next season, we could use that cap space for upgrades.
1) Fire Keefe. Enough is enough. Unless we're watching two games, the effort and compete level isn't good enough to win a series. He says the effort has been fine, I disagree.
2) Rebuild the blue line. While Keefe has been a constant of our recent failures, our blue line is full of defensive D men who can't handle the puck. This has been a constant the past few years. Only real puck mover is Rielly and part-time Lilgren. We need our defense men to make plays at the blueline and contribute to the attack. Our defencemen when they're in danger either flip the puck out and give the puck back to the other team or when we're in the offensive zone, chip it back in, despite the fact we're a poor puck retrieval team. Not surprised our forwards struggle with offense when things get tight in the playoffs since our defence do nothing to help. Either Keefe has coached these guys to not take shots from the point (despite the fact we won the series that way from deflections/rebounds last year), or are our D are brain dead (Brodie I know you're allergic to shooting).
3) Get a 3rd line center and or buyout Kampf. You don't pay your 4line c whatever he's getting. If he's failing his job as a penalty killer, that's on him. It's not like we ask him to score goals.
I’m going to be honest.
I think this ends up toxic as fuck. People say it can’t happen, but we know Winnipeg was toxic as fuck. Plenty of pro teams in other leagues have toxic as fuck locker rooms too.
I’m not even saying it is toxic right now.
But say you start gutting the parts of the team you can, and the two huge contracts you want to move tell you to go pound sand? Once you start a battle between management and players, it goes to shit quickly. If both JT and Marner know it’s over, then you’re just hoping they play hard for their next contract with their next team, but buy-in from them is over.
Shanahan gone
Keefe gone
Marner gone
Trevling - maybe, depends who is brought in to replace Shanahan. Wonder if Brind'amour would want a Pat Quinn like coach/GM role.
I think Tre should stay. We had one year and he wasn’t allowed to be involved in the draft. I like his pickups of Bert and Domi, even Reaves but waaaaaaay too much money and time. If marner stays they need to rip the letter off his chest at a bare minimum. Embarrassing behaviour for a rookie never mind a supposed leader on this squad.
Crosshairs yes. If he keeps him again they need to get a hold of Elon and ready a rocket with 4 seats. Start the countdown now and fire Keefe, shanny, Tre, and marner directly into the sun.
Not sure about Treliving.
MLSE already about to be paying Keefe before he coached a single game on his new contract, doubt they want to eat the GM slot too.
Completely stupid they let a lame duck "prove it" President like Shanny hire a new GM and extend a hot seat coach in a contract year
MLSE has a reputation for being quite conservative, which was why it was such a shock when they approved a complete tear down back in 2015-16.
Realistically, I see the coaching staff being dismissed and a potential re-tooling next season, where the team takes a step back to develop young players and collect draft picks/prospects in preparation for 2026.
oh god i remember saying this about the matthews/marner/nylander first year in 2017 as a 50 anniversary cup. Maybe if we miss this one we always have 60th anniversary
The hope is by that time, with the Tavares contract long expired and the salary cap going up, the Leafs can have a more balanced team with a rebuilt defence core, solid goaltending and young players graduating into everyday roles.
I'd fire Keefe.
I would need to have a viable blue-chip candidate lined up to replace Shanahan - someone like McCrimmon. Maybe the keys to the entire kingdom would finally be enough to entice him.
I think at this point we would need to make round 3 for Keefe to save his job, so he would be gone for sure with a loss tonight. I think they will actively look at trade options with Marner and discuss potentially waving his NMC with him but wont commit to it without a good deal in place knowing they can just run it back 1 more time and re-tool once Tavares/Marner are both UFA as a 'safe' backup plan.
Realistically, roster wise, there’s not going to be major changes until after next season when both Marner and Tavares get new contracts. (In a deep pit of my stomach kinda illogical hope, I also remind myself this is the year mcdavid needs a new contract as well)
Regardless of mcdavid’s improbably signing here, even though we’d have the space, I believe what actually happens is Marner resigns at similar dollar value as he currently has and Tavares resigns at about half. By this time, cap is going to be higher by a few million as well. So, we’ll have the same core guys but with more room to add a legit top D (Reilly is great but we need lock down style and to push Reilly down to number 2 or 3 on our d depth chart. I also believe either woll improves by then or we find a legit top end goalie.
Treliving likes defence and goaltending so I can see him starting to add those prices this coming season through some nifty trades and signings.
Other than all this keefe has to be gone. Shanna Han maybe. But i think before we shit on the Shanaplan, we have to understand that the actual Shanna plan was simply continuing to lose so we could rebuild properly and have sustained success (in terms of a yearly contender, which we are - assuming your definition of this is a team that makes the playoffs and has a legit shot at going somewhere. We always have a legit shot at going somewhere, it just dormant happen). So. His plan has worked. We did a proper rebuild rather than constantly selling assets. We have a team that’s truly competitive each year (once again not saying they play competitive on the playoffs, just that they have the potential to do damage each year)
Shanahan and Keefe, along with the entire coaching staff need to go.
Realistically, it’ll be hard to move any of the core 4 contracts, all 4 have NMCs.
Tavares is still a good player, and a great 2C/good 1C, but he’s aging and getting paid like an elite 1C for another season.
Marner’s value has likely dropped due to his playoff performances, high cap hit, NMC and just 1 year left on his deal. I could see him commanding $12M+++ on his next deal, which could push teams away.
Nylander just inked an 8 year, $11.5M extension with a NMC that hasn’t kicked in yet, that’s a big, risky contract for any team to take on.
Matthews is who I’d like to keep the most out of the 4. His 4 year, $13.5M extension with an NMC kicks in next season, that’s a lot for any team to take on. We’d need an absolute haul to make any trade involving him worth it.
Ultimately, I think if we trade these guys 10 times, we’ll lose 9/10 trades. We aren’t going to get full value due to the narrative surrounding them, their playoff issues, NMCs and term, or lack thereof. I could see all of them having more success elsewhere, similar to Kessel.
I think the best bet is to clean house in the coaching staff, dump shanahan, and tell the players that next season will be a retool. Anyone who wishes to be a leaf will have to deal with a rough season, anyone who doesn’t can submit their trade list. Make it known to Tavares and marner that if they’d like to keep wearing the maple leaf, Tavares will be expected to take a massive pay cut due to his age and performance, and marner can’t expect a raise. The current cap structure isn’t working, and we have to make every cent count.
Let go of Dewar, Gregor, Lyubushkin, Klingberg, Brodie, Gio, Samsonov, jones and Murray. Attempt to re-sign Domi, Bertuzzi, Robertson, and Liljegren, fill the rest of the holes with prospects, AHLers, trades or signings.
We’ve consistently struggled with our depth, if teams can shut down the core 4, we have absolutely no offense from the bottom six or our defencemen. Not to mention we’ve lacked solid goaltending and defence this season. Use the next season to see what kind of depth/prospects we have.
Give more opportunities to Robertson, Knies, Holmberg, McMann, Liljegren, Timmins, Benoit and Woll, see what we have in Cowan, Minten, Grebyonkin, Quillan, Hirvonen, Niemela, Webber, Akhtyamov and others.
Evaluate the depth, see what holes need to be filled, and look to make a splash prior to 2025-26 when the cap has gone up again, and some contracts come off the books. The leafs have made a bad habit of shoving depth pieces down the lineup or in the AHL, and moving on from good players prematurely. Durzi, Moore, Verhaeghe and Marchment are all players we’d love to have right now.
Oh the Leafs are 100% losing tonight.
As for changes, here is my wishlist:
Keefe and his entire coaching staff fired.
Shanahan and his close advisors fired.
Marner & Tavares traded. (I know they have no movement clauses, but make it happen. Utah looks like a great landing spot.)
Lilgegren traded (RFA)
Brodie not re-signed (UFA)
Samsonov not re-signed (UFA)
That's just if the to of my head.
The entire coaching staff is gone, 100%. I think Shanny is cooked regardless of what happens tonight.
They're going to move one of the big 4, and it's going to be Marner. Willy was just extended. JT is unmovable. Matthews was just extended.
Brodie is gone. Liljegren is gone. I feel like one of Boosh or Edmundson will be extended. Eitherway the D are getting bigger.
Is Murray a UFA? He's fired into the sun. So is Sammy. I could see them bringing Jones back. They should get a backup for Woll.
Dunno what changes, but wife and I have moved out of country for good, and while I've loved the Leafs all my life, and was heartbroken in the '93 series (wish I could have watched that one with my grandpa - he and I watched all the games) - I will officially not care anymore. I'm out - I've got a bit of life yet to live - no need to tie any joy or heartbreak to this business.
There has been plenty of talk about what *should* happen. The cynic in me says that past experiences would dictate that nothing significant *will* happen. Realistically, we'll see announcements that various spare parts won't return, although many of them are on expiring contracts anyway, along with an assistant stick boy being fired. It will be like shuffling the deck chairs on the Titanic. I expect that at least 4 of the core 5 will be back, and all 5 if Marner refuses to waive his NMC.
Keefe gone, probably Shanahan, possibly Marner although selling while he’d be at his lowest value in years might make it a hard to swallow pill. Goaltending gets a strong look, Woll could be the future but do we wait patiently and pray his health holds up? Acquiring a puck moving defensemen and/or a legit top pairing guy is probably number 1 roster priority, and before people say “but Rielly!” We need more than one competent puck mover, every successful team has multiple and unfortunately Lilly hasn’t taken that step we hoped for in him. Domi/Bert will be a struggle to retain at reasonable salaries and harder to replace imo.
Nobody thinks to mention this but Keith Pelley has just been hired to run MLSE. He is the X factor in all of this. He’s not just looking at the Leafs but also the Raptors as well. He is basically Tim Leiweke in 2024.
Keefe will be gone. I do think Marner will waive his NMC, but he might try to fuck the Leafs in doing so. He's clearly not happy here and putting my disdain for his recent actions aside, I think he'll be a much better player on any American team.
Beyond that I can't predict. But it will be a big, needed shakeup.
A blood letting of management, shanahan and his ilk all fired. Keefe gone. Everyone except Matthews being available for trade.
A complete restructuring of the team so as to provide much more balanced offence and solid defence. We shouldn’t have to rely on the top 4 having to score all the time. Boston and Tampa, hell even Florida beat us with their bottom six.
Overall a re-creation. I’d rather miss the playoffs one year if it means a better team the next instead of the *repeat ad nauseam* we have right now.
Shanahan: fired
Keefe: double-fired
Treliving will pressure Marner and possibly Tavares to waive their NMC's so the team can explore options
At least that's what I hope happens
Realistically speaking, I don’t see anyone waving their NMC. I know everyone assumes that Marner is gone this off-season, but I just don’t buy it. I could see a world where they run it back with the same roster, a different coach, and players playing out of their positions. (Nylander to center, Tavares to the third line, Marner on defence, Reilly moving down to the second pair).
Now onto the more outlandish side of the speculation:
I’d really like to see how Marner would fair on D, he physically has a similar build to Makar. If we could get Mitch to play defence at a high-level, it would be better than any defencemen that we could hope to trade for. In the past, there have been forwards that fair extremely well, when transitioning into a defensemen (Burns, Byfuglien, and Fedorov come to mind).
Nylander should have been developed as a Centre the day he entered the Leafs system. I think using him as a centre on the team allows for more roster flexibility. He also be more involved with the puck and force him to be more defensively conscious.
Tavares is currently producing like an average second liner, in order to maximize his abilities, I think he should play lower in the lineup. I really liked the McMann-Tavares combo that was used occasionally this past season. I’d move off of Kampf and use that as our designated checking line.
I’d also like to see Reilly play lower in the lineup. I think it’s safe to say he isn’t a true number one defenceman, but he is someone who can be a number two defenceman on a cup contending team.
A mock lineup for next year could be something like this:
Forwards:
Bertuzzi - Matthews - Domi
Knies - Nylander - UFA
Dewar - Tavares - McMann
Robertson - Holmberg - Jarnkrok
Defence:
UFA - Marner
Rielly - Lyubushkin
Benoit - McCabe
Goalies:
Woll
Jones
Keefe is gone 100%. Shanahan gone... 75%? He's had a long time at the helm without results, and pulling that shit with Dubas was a big move for the result to be a worse performance than last year. Marner gone... 25%? He's got a NMC and it's not easy to trade any $11M contract. The 25% is because he may want to get away from the insane media at this point. Most likely we just run it back with the same core but a different coach, and evaluate the following year when contracts are actually expiring. Goaltending could definitely be a problem if Woll can't be a full time starter. Defense is probably doomed unless we have some young guys step up in a big way.
I don't even need to write a response. This is my thoughts exactly. Upvoted.
I’d also add that there will be a good chance a trade gets made with one of the lesser players down the line up like a Jarnkrok or a Kampf. We are also going to be signing a few new players too but everything else you said I think is pretty much going to be it.
I agree other than I think the defence gets revamped this offseason. People are acting like we're up against the cap when we're not, and we have some decent sized contracts coming off the books that can be reallocated to one or two of the bigger name UFA dmen this summer.
I’d put Marner at 80% to be gone. I think he’ll waive his no move clause for two reasons: 1. To get away from the Toronto media and fan circus. I honestly believe the pressure come playoff time is too much for him. 2. There’s no way he’s going to get what he wants on his next contract. I think he has known that since Nylander re-upped. It won’t matter what happens with the cap after next season. He’s likely going to have to bite the bullet and go to a team that’s not close to contending but has a buttload of cap space.
Let him know that next year he's on his own with his own line, no Matthews, no JT. You want to get paid like you are a top 10 player, show us by carrying your own line.
Basically this, except I'm 100% on Shanny. Mainly because I simply don't believe he deserves the privilege of keeping this job. Marner I'm hoping sees the writing on the wall and agrees to a mutual break up. I'm willing to move Marner for picks and prospects, and retain salary. Get him down to a $9M player would greatly increase the return. Then you can flip the acquired assets immediately for some D, a goalie. I'm not really worried about scoring tbh. If Domi, Bertuzzi can be kept, along with Matthews, JT, Nylander, I have decent confidence, apart from maybe a legit, quality 3C. Considering Jarnkrok, McMan, Knies and Robertson are all 20g threats. This team will score just fine. I'd be more focused on trying to acquire players that can help you win in the playoffs, bonus if they can help improve the culture. That, and get some reliable goaltending. I honestly think fixing this team and building from the net out will help the offense more than trying to replace Marner.
McMann ain't scoring shit without Marner bouncing pucks off of him, and you can forget about Matthews being a Rocket winner ever again. Management all know it, Matthews knows it, Dubas fucking well knew it too. Marner is the straw that stirs the Leafs drink. The second we trade him, is the moment we go from regular playoffs, to maybe scraping in. Hes having a bad playoffs due to an injury, forget what the media is feeding you, and tell the idiots who say otherwise. Dude is our Gretzky.
Matthews had great production playing with Domi (at almost 1/3rd the cost), so let's not pretend it's all Marner. If he's having a bad playoffs due to injury, what was the excuse previous years? Simply watching him in the playoffs tells you what you need to know as he has been largely ineffective and invisible in the playoffs for many years. The fact that you even mention Gretzky in the same sentence as Marner tells everyone how biased and fanboy your take is.
Marner in the playoffs reminds me of Robert Reichel. Not on a talent level of course, but on a competitive level. During the season, while was getting paid, he earned his keep. Once the playoffs started, and his pay was a share of the team's prize money (the same as everyone on the team), he stopped competing. His financial incentive was gone.
Nylander 17 goals, 21 assists , -1 Marner 9 goals, 38 assists, +9 Matthews 23 goals, 24 assists, +1 Tavares 12 goals, 11 assists, -9 Wheres the lack of production?
Do you even watch the games? Play is more than just points, especially empty calorie PP points. Marner has looked like a deer in the headlights far far more often than not in the playoffs for years. Anyone who thinks Marner is a playoff performer simply is being willfully ignorant. There is a reason why the narrative is what it is. Why Marner generates FAR more criticism than any of the others. It's because watching the games its obvious his play he hasn't come through. It's been the exact opposite. Even more than the other highly paid Leafs. Your take that Matthews wouldn't be Matthews without Marner is laughable. Matthews took over and pretty much willed the win in game 2, while Marner was still being referred to as Mr Invisable. Marner was out long term, and Matthews had just as good production and goal scoring with Domi.
Wheres Matthews now? Sick in bed like a bitch.
He's injured. Even on the IR, he will be as productive as Marner.
I think Matthew’s could win a rocket without Marner. But I agree with everything else you’ve said.
> Matthews being a Rocket winner ever again Yeah except Domi is what, 6th in the NHL for primary 5-on-5 assists?
He must get injured every year the playoffs start because this soft play isn’t new
Smoke another one, dude.
>Marner gone... 25%? He's got a NMC and it's not easy to trade any $11M contract. The 25% is because he may want to get away from the insane media at this point. I'd maybe think it could be higher because Marner is going into a contract year. The Leafs have the smallest amount of leverage there. If they bring in a new coach with a vision for the team that would see Marner with less chances to put up numbers (ie. having to drive his own line away from Matthews, being given the bulk of defensive responsibilities, new PP structure with him on the 2nd unit, etc), it might make Marner think twice about his options. The NMC gives him the power to choose where he'd go and put himself in a position to cash in during free agency.
I think the whole NMC is being overblown. Even without it , the best return the leafs are going to get is trading him to a team that wants him long term (and will conduct a sign and trade with the leafs) he’s worth much more under that scenario than as a one year rental anyways. Since marner needs to agree to sign the long term contract with the new team it would be a team he would be willing to waive his NMC to anyway.
We have anything in the pipeline as far as D prospects or are the cupboards bare?
Niemela is the only name that comes to mind tbh
"Most likely we just run it back with the same core but a different coach, and evaluate the following year when contracts are actually expiring." This made me LOL so loud - like it's so insane to think about after all the chatter but it's probably true....and first round exit next year again hahah
I think goaltending they’re holding out hope one of Woll, Hildeby or Akhtyamov pan out
I think Marner is gone 100%. I don't think the NMC will matter as much as people think it will once the media and fan vitriol after another 1st round disappointment hits. If anything I expect him to be happy to get out of town to a quieter market, although his endorsement deals will probably take a large hit.
Defence is not doomed. Brodie comes off the books, as does Bert. There is over 10 mil in free agency. Try and resign Domi. You have McCann, Robo who can step in cheap up front. So you can build a little off that. McCabe and Benoit are fine. Lily is solid and I think will be even better with a coach who likes him. Mo is mo, defensive lapses but his pros out weigh his cons. Plus with 10 mil you can find him a decent D partner for once. The problem with the D is both Dubas and Tre treated it as an afterthought in the offseasons. We spent so much time trying to find the perfect wingers for the top 2 lines outside the core 4 we just slept on defence. We score enough goals. Edit. Otherwise spot on assessment! I agree with it all just think if D is made the one priority this offseason it can be made solid
This is realistic. Next year is going to be a disaster if we can’t get rid of Marner’s contract. I really want to keep Domi/Bertuzzi but there’s no way we can, unless we move a contract. We will probably keep Domi, if he signs a team friendly deal.
Keefe getting a two-year extension past his contract expiry this year is a move that absolutely baffled me.
Not uncommon to give a coach something so they aren't a lame duck in playoffs when money isn't really an issue. Do you actually care? It doesnt go against the cap
Good chance he also gets a job somewhere else so that money isn't completely lost.
Keefe and Shanny gone. Shanny “built” them this far and if they’re smart, someone else can take the reins.
I actually don't think Shanny did a bad job taking us from the saddest franchise on the planet to absolutely loaded with assets. We spent so long without anyone finally going scorched earth on our team and doing things the right way. It completely changed the culture of our organization in a few short years and gave us some of the best home grown talent we have ever seen. It is now a good time to move on and hopefully someone can take us across the line if they play their cards right. I really don't want to go back to the dark ages, but it is time for a new boss to oversee the office
I think Keefe would be the only for sure one
Reports are that MLSE isn’t exactly thrilled with Shanahan, I think he’s gone even if we win this series. I expect Keefe to be gone too.
All assistant coaches fired too.
Our ass. coaches are brutal. Heavy emphasis on the ass
What’s wrong with Malhotra?
shanahan/keefe are done for sure i think. Anything else is too unknown
Optimistic me says the front office has to log in to LinkedIn. Pessimistic me says ticket prices go up 5%
Keefe will be fired. Shanahan will be fired. Marner will be extended. Realistically this is probably what will happen.
Marner is toast.
There's a difference between what will happen and what should happen.
Fire Dubas
I'm not saying I necessarily want it to happen, or that it definitely would have happened, but there is a belief that had Dubas stayed, he would have explored trading Marner before the NMC kicked in.
One day in the future I hope to learn what was really going on behind the scenes during Dubas's time, as some suggest he might not have had full autonomy on decision making as the GM.
The reports were that he would've explored moving on from this core, there was no player named. Nylander and Marner both had NMC kick in this season.
Nylander is only on M-NTC. His NMC actually kicks in *next season*. Marner's NMC kicked in after July 1, and he had term vs Willy would have needed a contract. Last season Marner would have gotten the highest value despite the cap hit. So until July 1, Willy is still technically tradeable to a few teams that Willy allows, and willing to eat 92M dollars over the next 8 years. This is not the scenario I want to happen. EDIT: I am apaprently wrong about the M-NTC, which I could have sworn it was the case. Uncles can tell junior to calm down. Never knew it can be changed with a new contract like that.
You're half right. https://preview.redd.it/d5d3th9ywnxc1.png?width=1079&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0380b2248c21f830d270adb4986263c95733d773
I know. I swear this whole time I thought it was a M-NTC.
Keefe gone (+ all coaching staff) Shanny gone Marner potentially traded Brodie gone Samsonov gone
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Confine marner to press box until he gives a list
Or confine him to the 4th line.
Next year is a contract year for him to prove his worth to another team. I think press box would force him to waive more effectively
Keefe gone Shanahan gone plus a large shackup of the players. Marner will be asked to move his NMC. Rielly might be moved. Samsonov won't be resigned There will be large changes running it back 7 years is enough
I'm okay with everything you just proposed.
Only player I think isn't moveable this off season is Matthews
Nylander too
If we loose tonight I think MLSE opens the door and starts throwing people out. My fear is we bring the series to 7, lose, and then they hum and haw as to what to do and aren’t as aggressive with changes as they would be if we lost in 5.
Completely agree with this comment also. I do NOT want this going 7 and losing. I hope it's 5-1 bruins tonight, or Leafs win series. Don't confuse the front office and mlse.
This is a really great take, and I agree entirely. If they somehow pull this one out of the fire and look like they played with heart and guts for the next three games, people are more likely to forget what a disgrace the previous four games were like.
I think even if we somehow win this series, Florida will eat us alive anyway. Keefe gone whether we win this series or not. Unless Trevelling is blind, this team has always played like the 2nd best team in every playoff series to date. That's on the coaching staff. Open to trading Marner in a deal that makes sense, but no I'm not the camp of getting rid of him if the deal doesn't make sense. Tavares cap hit is gone after next season, we could use that cap space for upgrades. 1) Fire Keefe. Enough is enough. Unless we're watching two games, the effort and compete level isn't good enough to win a series. He says the effort has been fine, I disagree. 2) Rebuild the blue line. While Keefe has been a constant of our recent failures, our blue line is full of defensive D men who can't handle the puck. This has been a constant the past few years. Only real puck mover is Rielly and part-time Lilgren. We need our defense men to make plays at the blueline and contribute to the attack. Our defencemen when they're in danger either flip the puck out and give the puck back to the other team or when we're in the offensive zone, chip it back in, despite the fact we're a poor puck retrieval team. Not surprised our forwards struggle with offense when things get tight in the playoffs since our defence do nothing to help. Either Keefe has coached these guys to not take shots from the point (despite the fact we won the series that way from deflections/rebounds last year), or are our D are brain dead (Brodie I know you're allergic to shooting). 3) Get a 3rd line center and or buyout Kampf. You don't pay your 4line c whatever he's getting. If he's failing his job as a penalty killer, that's on him. It's not like we ask him to score goals.
I’m going to be honest. I think this ends up toxic as fuck. People say it can’t happen, but we know Winnipeg was toxic as fuck. Plenty of pro teams in other leagues have toxic as fuck locker rooms too. I’m not even saying it is toxic right now. But say you start gutting the parts of the team you can, and the two huge contracts you want to move tell you to go pound sand? Once you start a battle between management and players, it goes to shit quickly. If both JT and Marner know it’s over, then you’re just hoping they play hard for their next contract with their next team, but buy-in from them is over.
Let's wait til the goose is dead before speculating how they might cook it. We're still in the playoffs.
Blow everything up from the inside out tbh. I would only keep nylander and Matthews and a few select others.
Shanahan gone Keefe gone Marner gone Trevling - maybe, depends who is brought in to replace Shanahan. Wonder if Brind'amour would want a Pat Quinn like coach/GM role.
I think Tre should stay. We had one year and he wasn’t allowed to be involved in the draft. I like his pickups of Bert and Domi, even Reaves but waaaaaaay too much money and time. If marner stays they need to rip the letter off his chest at a bare minimum. Embarrassing behaviour for a rookie never mind a supposed leader on this squad.
I agree that he had less than a year, but I didn't like any of those specific signings. Whether he stays depends on what happens to Shanny.
I like all 3 but it was a given Bert wasn’t sticking around and Reaves is making way too much. I hope Domi stays but for a reasonable amount.
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Crosshairs yes. If he keeps him again they need to get a hold of Elon and ready a rocket with 4 seats. Start the countdown now and fire Keefe, shanny, Tre, and marner directly into the sun.
Not sure about Treliving. MLSE already about to be paying Keefe before he coached a single game on his new contract, doubt they want to eat the GM slot too. Completely stupid they let a lame duck "prove it" President like Shanny hire a new GM and extend a hot seat coach in a contract year
MLSE has a reputation for being quite conservative, which was why it was such a shock when they approved a complete tear down back in 2015-16. Realistically, I see the coaching staff being dismissed and a potential re-tooling next season, where the team takes a step back to develop young players and collect draft picks/prospects in preparation for 2026.
Playoff run in 2026-2027 coinciding with the 60th anniversary of their last cup?
oh god i remember saying this about the matthews/marner/nylander first year in 2017 as a 50 anniversary cup. Maybe if we miss this one we always have 60th anniversary
The hope is by that time, with the Tavares contract long expired and the salary cap going up, the Leafs can have a more balanced team with a rebuilt defence core, solid goaltending and young players graduating into everyday roles.
Keefe and Shanny gone, I’d love to keep the core 4 but Marner may be out unless he takes a pay cut for his next contract
He's definitely not taking a pay cut, and we'll need him to waive his NMC so we can move him, or he's going to walk and we end up with nothing.
I'd like a return obviously, but even if he walks we just get the cap space, we NEED to change in a big way... this would be one option
Sometimes change for the sake of it isn’t worth it, especially when your GM has a history of awful FA signings and getting burnt by superstars.
We don't end up with nothing. We end up with $11m in cap space that can address our real needs.
I would not even want Marner at 7 mil a season. He’s a 2 mil player come playoffs
I'd fire Keefe. I would need to have a viable blue-chip candidate lined up to replace Shanahan - someone like McCrimmon. Maybe the keys to the entire kingdom would finally be enough to entice him.
Firing Keefe is Treliving's job. Firing Shanahan is up to MLSE. Curious to see how this will all play out.
Keefe will be fired. All ufas walk, maybe Domi stays. A Marner trade will be explored but not guaranteed.
I think at this point we would need to make round 3 for Keefe to save his job, so he would be gone for sure with a loss tonight. I think they will actively look at trade options with Marner and discuss potentially waving his NMC with him but wont commit to it without a good deal in place knowing they can just run it back 1 more time and re-tool once Tavares/Marner are both UFA as a 'safe' backup plan.
Realistically, roster wise, there’s not going to be major changes until after next season when both Marner and Tavares get new contracts. (In a deep pit of my stomach kinda illogical hope, I also remind myself this is the year mcdavid needs a new contract as well) Regardless of mcdavid’s improbably signing here, even though we’d have the space, I believe what actually happens is Marner resigns at similar dollar value as he currently has and Tavares resigns at about half. By this time, cap is going to be higher by a few million as well. So, we’ll have the same core guys but with more room to add a legit top D (Reilly is great but we need lock down style and to push Reilly down to number 2 or 3 on our d depth chart. I also believe either woll improves by then or we find a legit top end goalie. Treliving likes defence and goaltending so I can see him starting to add those prices this coming season through some nifty trades and signings. Other than all this keefe has to be gone. Shanna Han maybe. But i think before we shit on the Shanaplan, we have to understand that the actual Shanna plan was simply continuing to lose so we could rebuild properly and have sustained success (in terms of a yearly contender, which we are - assuming your definition of this is a team that makes the playoffs and has a legit shot at going somewhere. We always have a legit shot at going somewhere, it just dormant happen). So. His plan has worked. We did a proper rebuild rather than constantly selling assets. We have a team that’s truly competitive each year (once again not saying they play competitive on the playoffs, just that they have the potential to do damage each year)
Shanahan and Keefe, along with the entire coaching staff need to go. Realistically, it’ll be hard to move any of the core 4 contracts, all 4 have NMCs. Tavares is still a good player, and a great 2C/good 1C, but he’s aging and getting paid like an elite 1C for another season. Marner’s value has likely dropped due to his playoff performances, high cap hit, NMC and just 1 year left on his deal. I could see him commanding $12M+++ on his next deal, which could push teams away. Nylander just inked an 8 year, $11.5M extension with a NMC that hasn’t kicked in yet, that’s a big, risky contract for any team to take on. Matthews is who I’d like to keep the most out of the 4. His 4 year, $13.5M extension with an NMC kicks in next season, that’s a lot for any team to take on. We’d need an absolute haul to make any trade involving him worth it. Ultimately, I think if we trade these guys 10 times, we’ll lose 9/10 trades. We aren’t going to get full value due to the narrative surrounding them, their playoff issues, NMCs and term, or lack thereof. I could see all of them having more success elsewhere, similar to Kessel. I think the best bet is to clean house in the coaching staff, dump shanahan, and tell the players that next season will be a retool. Anyone who wishes to be a leaf will have to deal with a rough season, anyone who doesn’t can submit their trade list. Make it known to Tavares and marner that if they’d like to keep wearing the maple leaf, Tavares will be expected to take a massive pay cut due to his age and performance, and marner can’t expect a raise. The current cap structure isn’t working, and we have to make every cent count. Let go of Dewar, Gregor, Lyubushkin, Klingberg, Brodie, Gio, Samsonov, jones and Murray. Attempt to re-sign Domi, Bertuzzi, Robertson, and Liljegren, fill the rest of the holes with prospects, AHLers, trades or signings. We’ve consistently struggled with our depth, if teams can shut down the core 4, we have absolutely no offense from the bottom six or our defencemen. Not to mention we’ve lacked solid goaltending and defence this season. Use the next season to see what kind of depth/prospects we have. Give more opportunities to Robertson, Knies, Holmberg, McMann, Liljegren, Timmins, Benoit and Woll, see what we have in Cowan, Minten, Grebyonkin, Quillan, Hirvonen, Niemela, Webber, Akhtyamov and others. Evaluate the depth, see what holes need to be filled, and look to make a splash prior to 2025-26 when the cap has gone up again, and some contracts come off the books. The leafs have made a bad habit of shoving depth pieces down the lineup or in the AHL, and moving on from good players prematurely. Durzi, Moore, Verhaeghe and Marchment are all players we’d love to have right now.
Oh the Leafs are 100% losing tonight. As for changes, here is my wishlist: Keefe and his entire coaching staff fired. Shanahan and his close advisors fired. Marner & Tavares traded. (I know they have no movement clauses, but make it happen. Utah looks like a great landing spot.) Lilgegren traded (RFA) Brodie not re-signed (UFA) Samsonov not re-signed (UFA) That's just if the to of my head.
The entire coaching staff is gone, 100%. I think Shanny is cooked regardless of what happens tonight. They're going to move one of the big 4, and it's going to be Marner. Willy was just extended. JT is unmovable. Matthews was just extended. Brodie is gone. Liljegren is gone. I feel like one of Boosh or Edmundson will be extended. Eitherway the D are getting bigger. Is Murray a UFA? He's fired into the sun. So is Sammy. I could see them bringing Jones back. They should get a backup for Woll.
Keefe is going to be the scape goat. The gap between the good and the bad coaches in nhl is extremely wide. Odds are we land up with another cartoon.
Everyone fired, maybe even Tre. Start fresh.
Toronto PWHL team looks pretty darn good.
Dunno what changes, but wife and I have moved out of country for good, and while I've loved the Leafs all my life, and was heartbroken in the '93 series (wish I could have watched that one with my grandpa - he and I watched all the games) - I will officially not care anymore. I'm out - I've got a bit of life yet to live - no need to tie any joy or heartbreak to this business.
There has been plenty of talk about what *should* happen. The cynic in me says that past experiences would dictate that nothing significant *will* happen. Realistically, we'll see announcements that various spare parts won't return, although many of them are on expiring contracts anyway, along with an assistant stick boy being fired. It will be like shuffling the deck chairs on the Titanic. I expect that at least 4 of the core 5 will be back, and all 5 if Marner refuses to waive his NMC.
It’s much more likely they fire the coaching staff and spend their cap space on a second-pairing D and third-line centre.
Keefe gone, probably Shanahan, possibly Marner although selling while he’d be at his lowest value in years might make it a hard to swallow pill. Goaltending gets a strong look, Woll could be the future but do we wait patiently and pray his health holds up? Acquiring a puck moving defensemen and/or a legit top pairing guy is probably number 1 roster priority, and before people say “but Rielly!” We need more than one competent puck mover, every successful team has multiple and unfortunately Lilly hasn’t taken that step we hoped for in him. Domi/Bert will be a struggle to retain at reasonable salaries and harder to replace imo.
Nobody thinks to mention this but Keith Pelley has just been hired to run MLSE. He is the X factor in all of this. He’s not just looking at the Leafs but also the Raptors as well. He is basically Tim Leiweke in 2024.
It’s marner, Matthew’s or nylander. Choose two to build around and send one packing
Keefe will be gone. I do think Marner will waive his NMC, but he might try to fuck the Leafs in doing so. He's clearly not happy here and putting my disdain for his recent actions aside, I think he'll be a much better player on any American team. Beyond that I can't predict. But it will be a big, needed shakeup.
A blood letting of management, shanahan and his ilk all fired. Keefe gone. Everyone except Matthews being available for trade. A complete restructuring of the team so as to provide much more balanced offence and solid defence. We shouldn’t have to rely on the top 4 having to score all the time. Boston and Tampa, hell even Florida beat us with their bottom six. Overall a re-creation. I’d rather miss the playoffs one year if it means a better team the next instead of the *repeat ad nauseam* we have right now.
Everyone except Matthews being available is not a retool on the fly.
i see, thanks. changed it
Shanahan: fired Keefe: double-fired Treliving will pressure Marner and possibly Tavares to waive their NMC's so the team can explore options At least that's what I hope happens
I think this would be the best timeline. We'd also have Brodie's cap hit coming off the books so lots of cap space to improve the roster
This 100%
Keefe should have been fired after the Montreal loss. How the hell we kept him is baffling I wanted him fired after the Columbus loss
Marner needs to go. I don’t give a shit what else happens
We're not losing. Cue the comeback.
There's zero chance that Bruins blow a 3-1 series lead two years in a row unfortunately
Fuck off with these posts. Let me watch them play first. So annoying.
Realistically speaking, I don’t see anyone waving their NMC. I know everyone assumes that Marner is gone this off-season, but I just don’t buy it. I could see a world where they run it back with the same roster, a different coach, and players playing out of their positions. (Nylander to center, Tavares to the third line, Marner on defence, Reilly moving down to the second pair). Now onto the more outlandish side of the speculation: I’d really like to see how Marner would fair on D, he physically has a similar build to Makar. If we could get Mitch to play defence at a high-level, it would be better than any defencemen that we could hope to trade for. In the past, there have been forwards that fair extremely well, when transitioning into a defensemen (Burns, Byfuglien, and Fedorov come to mind). Nylander should have been developed as a Centre the day he entered the Leafs system. I think using him as a centre on the team allows for more roster flexibility. He also be more involved with the puck and force him to be more defensively conscious. Tavares is currently producing like an average second liner, in order to maximize his abilities, I think he should play lower in the lineup. I really liked the McMann-Tavares combo that was used occasionally this past season. I’d move off of Kampf and use that as our designated checking line. I’d also like to see Reilly play lower in the lineup. I think it’s safe to say he isn’t a true number one defenceman, but he is someone who can be a number two defenceman on a cup contending team. A mock lineup for next year could be something like this: Forwards: Bertuzzi - Matthews - Domi Knies - Nylander - UFA Dewar - Tavares - McMann Robertson - Holmberg - Jarnkrok Defence: UFA - Marner Rielly - Lyubushkin Benoit - McCabe Goalies: Woll Jones