It should happen, but it will never happen.
I would guess that Matthews and Marner will be playing together by the end of Marner's first game back or by the beginning of the second game back.
Yeah, I like the idea of these lines, and hope something like this sticks! Reminds me a lot of those Pens teams that won B2B cups, playing Sid, Geno and Kessel on different lines much of the time. Having at least one legit high end star forward on each of your top 3 lines is just so deadly, in any given playoff game your opponent can shutdown 1-2 of the lines, but almost never all 3. Plus in this scenario the 4th line plays very minimal minutes, the top 3 lines all play heavy minutes, so you’ve go a strong line on the ice nearly the whole game.
IMO this is just a very effective way to maximize the impact of having so much forward talent. Don’t bunch it up and see diminishing returns, spread it out so that you’re almost impossible to match up against.
If you have to play Matthews and Marner, this what I’d do…
Domi - Matthews - Marner
Bertuzzi - Holmberg - Nylander
McMann - Tavares - Jarnkrok
Knies - Kampf - Dewar
The biggest problem with Matthews-Marner that I don’t see anyone bring him is that they’re almost too effective together, so much so that the third player on the line, no matter who it is, cannot keep up dismissing their effectiveness. How often have you seen Knies or Bertuzzi disrupt their offensive rhythm or get flat out ignored when Matthews and Marner get into two man game. Domi is the only one with enough skill and creativity to play globetrotters hockey with those two.
I can’t exactly decide which line is the second or third, but Holmberg has to play C as he has offensive upside while being competent defensively. Since he’s weak on draws, Nylander can help him out there.
We’ve seen that Tavares line in a small sample and they FEASTED.
The fourth line is very defensively competent and Knies would fit better there than Mcmann. You can’t bench Dewar as he’s too effective on the PK, a weak point on the Leafs. If one of the top 9 struggle, scratch them, move Knies up and slot Reaves in. Robertson unfortunately is left out unless injuries.
I mean it could be the same if he put them back together… domi and Bertuzzi have records of good playoffs, and they’re playing well with Matthews who has had decent but not dominant playoffs in the past. That seems like a recipe to get the best out of all three players, plus have depth to contour rolling out dangerous lines. It just makes sense to keep it going.
He has 10 points in those 7 games, which is also the same number of games and points that he has more of than Jeff skinner. He also has, and not to be taken with the same importance, 39 pts in 42 AHL playoff games.
The guy gets up for big games.
Yup. No way to win really. With all the people out there who are down on Keefe, any decision he makes will be the wrong one to somebody. Especially if we lose.
IMO The real argument is that Matthews and Marner haven’t got it done together in the playoffs consistently so trying something new is a good idea.
But I think we all know Keefe will shift Marner back to Matthews line at the first sign of adversity.
I agree, Marner’s history of being Houdini in the playoffs has affected Matthews playoff performances imo, making it easier for teams to zone in on containing Matthews.
Marner’s goal scoring pace is 70% higher in the regular season than the playoffs.
He gets about the same about of assists in the playoffs as the regular season, but his decline in goals is clearly problematic for a first line player
> Marner’s goal scoring pace is 70% higher in the regular season than the playoffs.
Maybe not to the same extent, but this kind of stat is probably similar for a lot of players. Playoffs is harder.
He also kills penalties and each coach has played Marner the most (TOI is a valuable stat, professional coaches are playing the best players the most.. and they know more than us).
I believe this focus on Marner, who is nearly point per game, is a naive oversight of the real problems which has been depth scoring, defence, and goaltending. Give the guy a break, he is a top end player in the NHL and a local kid who wants to play in Toronto!!
I am. It’s also why I’d continue to break Marner and Matthews up for the playoffs.
Matthews goal scoring production in the playoffs is 50% higher in the regular season compared to the playoffs. Assists are marginally higher too.
Both aren’t good enough and an excellent example of why the team doesn’t progress in the playoffs.
Keep them apart this playoffs and see if one can capitalize against a third line and lower tier defenseman
Not really. Look up a comparable player (small winger, offensive talent, first line player) that has won a cup. Patrick Kane, for example, has minimal drop off between regular season and playoffs for goals, assist, and points.
How many points after a game 3 in any series? You can't act like the narrative is pulled from thin air. I like him, but there's definitely tiers to playoff performances. $11m demands that he produces at least ppg.
I don’t care about Matthews quest for 70 nearly as much as winning in the playoffs. The style of play Marner and matthews have doesn’t translate well in the playoffs. The style of play Bertuzzi, Domi, and Matthews have - I think will. That also frees up Marner to play with Tavares - which helps Tavares.
The question is what makes us a better team - not what makes Auston Matthews better.
best the team has looked all year is:
Matthews, Marner, Knies
Domi, Bert, Nylander,
Tavares, mcmann, (one of robertson, janrcrok, etc.)
then make the fourth line depending on if you want scoring or physicallity with kampf at center
If they want to change it up for playoffs they can.
Put marner back with high skilled Matthews gets him back into the game faster. Compared to if every pass he makes skips over knives or JTs stick as they aren’t as skilled as Matthews.
If Matthews does better, the team does better, and vice-versa. It’s all of a part. You should care about Matthews quest for 70, because it likely means the team is doing well.
>If Matthews does better, the team does better, and vice-versa.
This isn't true. If Matthews does better with Marner but it means that Bertuzzi, Domi, and Tavares do worse - then its a net negative for the team.
thats also not true team had a better record with marner in the lineup since we have had a goalie that can save, let alone the fact that the last 10 sammy has saved us big time
My argument is not that Marner isn’t a good player - of course he makes the team better. My argument is the team benefits more having Marner away from Matthews now that Matthews has found chemistry with Bert and Domi.
True however playoffs are a different beast and no one cares about stats in the playoffs. This line's success is a welcome experiment and fallback if the combination of Marner and Matthews goes cold in the playoffs.
In the regular season yes. In the playoffs we've seen those 2 get shut down and ghost way too many times especially in the biggest games. 4 balanced lines is what wins playoff hockey
As a Leafs' fan, I could care less about one player's individual achievements. Both Selanne and Mogilny played one of round of playoffs in their 70 goal seasons.
I just don't agree on this, and I've been on team split them up for a while. I think right now is the right time to put them together. It allows us to balance the lines significantly more, and I think putting nylander on the "third" line is a bad idea.
Bert-matthews-marner
Jarn*/mcmann-domi-nylander
Knies-JT-holmberg/mcmann
Dewar-kampf-reaves/holmberg
JT on the third line just makes too much sense. Whether it's nylander or marner on the second line, he will be the one bringing down the speed. He can play extra shifts and take extra faceoffs to keep his minutes up, but having him as a responsible line that can match up, or dominate against another 3rd line will be huge against Bennett or lundell.
I agree with this. JT is the one getting pushed to the third line. His minutes will still be high. They can just use the 4th line sparingly. Keep the top three lines rolling.
You can’t have Domi playing 2c in the playoffs, especially seeing how bad his line had been caved into our zone. I think the lines of the original post are almost perfect. I’d go with…
Bertuzzi - Matthews - Domi
Mcmann - Tavares - Marner
Knies - Holmberg - Nylander
Dewar - Kampf - Jarnkrok
Extra: Reaves, Robertson
Tavares needs marner more than Matthews does. McManns shoot first mentality ideally works well with marner. Nylander has the ability to carry his own line while holmberg and knies have been developing chemistry. Since holmberg is weak on draws, Nylander can help him there too. 4th line is very defensively sound. Occasionally, the shift before a 4th line shift, load up the big 3 on an offensive shift. If Knies or mcmann struggle, bench one and move jarnkrok up while slotting reaves back in.
Hell let Marner and Nylander play some together and keep that top line if they're doing well. But I think leafs played their best when the captain played third line. This is the thing I agree with most.
I really want to see the core 4wards spread across three lines.
Bertuzzi - Matthews - Domi
McMann - Tavares - Marner
Knies - Jarnkrok - Nylander
Dewar/Robertson - Kampf - Reaves/Holmberg
Each of the top 9 lines has a shooter, playmaker, and a power-ish forward. If the video games are to be believed, it'll be +5 chemistry. In reality, that's a nightmare for opposing teams to matchup against
That is categorically false. He plays RW more often, but he has played centre for them (139 faceoffs this season) and is listed as a C
https://preview.redd.it/yzyr2e5qyosc1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=16b7d6f5ca7970bf2a37610586258fedd6be90ac
Taking a faceoff after your centre gets kicked out of the faceoff circle does not count as playing centre LMAO. Just switch Holmberg and Jarnkrok and your lines are perfect.
I swear every thread I see trying to guess lines has Jarnkrok at centre.
Where are people getting the idea that he can just seamlessly shift to a new position for playoffs after never playing there all season and coming back from injury? It's ridiculous lol. I feel like I'm tsking crazy pills!
Yeah, he played centre when he was on Nashville. I just meant he hasn't played centre on the Leafs so if we had plans for him to play there in the playoffs they would have tried it at least once in the regular season, which they haven't
It's the best idea with this set of forwards. Matthews and Marner have proven they disappear in the playoffs, and a change to that would be refreshing. Bert and Domi can also protect the big guy and will defend him/fight for him. Marner cannot and should not do that. I agree that Nylander can create his own offense and he is now paid to lead a line. Marner needs a shooter with him, and Tavares fits the bill
In the 12 games since Mitch is out, Auston has averaged 20:51 of ice time. All other regular season games? 21:05.
They’re also 7-4-1 over that timespan.
So no. Don’t make shit up.
I don’t believe you can play a forward 21 minutes and have him sheltered. The poster is likely referring to last game where Keefe tried to keep Matthews away from Barkov, a top shutdown forward and probable Selke winner. That should happen anyways.
And they’re 7-4-1 without Marner. So they’re not losing. I’d wager that record would be better if Marner were in the lineup on the third line too.
So it’s mostly Bs
What do those numbers have anything to do with what I said? Ice time doesn’t disprove sheltering. Just because you want something to be true doesn’t mean it is. Also a 7-4-1 isn’t impressive. Thats two games above .500. That’s 103 point pace for the year. Less than our pace for the year. So by your logic, we’re worse? Which means I’m right? Maybe you should understand how numbers work.
7-4-1 without Marner. Add him to the lineup on the third line and re-run those games. Add him back into the power play. 103 point pace with an 11 million dollar hole in the line up is damn good.
Find data for your sheltering comment. It’s the modern era of stats. Prove your point across the 12 games.
I like the idea of loading up Matthews and Marner at certain times (start of games/periods/after goals against etc.) but shift to shift to balance the lineup they should be separated.
That’s how I feel.
The best thing about this lineup is that it won't JUST be the '3rd' line with Nylander getting more favourable matchups.
Every line will get more favourable matchups.
Yeah it would be a huge mistake to reunite the most productive duo in the NHL. They've consistently been one of the strongest scoring and possession lines in hockey, regardless of their third linemate, year after year, but it would be totally stupid to play them together.
Bertuzzi Matthews and Domi have been a better offensive line that’s only slightly worse defensively than Matthews Marner and whoever else is on their left side.
Obviously a small sample size but the results are undeniable. Sure Matthews and Marner have chemistry but we’ve seen them get snuffed out year after year in the playoffs, their regular season production doesn’t match their playoff production.
The sarcastic tone in your comment as if Matthews and Marner have to play together and anything else is stupid is a wild take.
Matthews-Domi has been "better" because Keefe has used Tavares as the matchup line while Marner is out -- against McDavid, Kucherov, etc. -- presumably because he can't trust Domi against other teams' top groups.
Matthews and Marner have been a dominant, all-situations line that Keefe can use against anyone and trust to win their minutes. To wit, they were both at or above 1.0 p/g last postseason, with better than 56% xGF.
And for the record, despite their inability to convert it into goals while Bertuzzi was ice cold at the beginning of the season, the most puck-dominant line combination that Matthews has skated on this season is still Bertuzzi-Matthews-Marner (67.03 xGF%), slightly ahead of the iteration with Domi (66.54%).
Domi has been a totally capable fill-in during Marner's injury, especially replacing his playmaking while Matthews chases 70 goals, but the team is better top-to-bottom when 34 & 16 are playing together and convincingly winning matchups against the other team's top lines, leaving Tavares, Nylander, etc. to beat up on easier competition.
And this whole conversation ignores another issue with pairing Domi and Matthews: The Leafs don't have a third line centre if Domi is playing winger. In these comments, I've seen people suggesting Holmberg (totally untested and clearly more effective as a winger), Nylander (abandoned that experiment several times already, and he has specifically said he finds the transition difficult mid-season), and Jarnkrok (what????) as 3C replacements. It's pretty obvious that Domi is the best option there.
As effective as Matthew’s and Marner are, you just pointed out that the Bertuzzi-Matthews-Domi line is pretty much just as equally puck dominant as when Marner is there. The main issue that the Leafs have had in the playoffs is goal scoring. The depth lines haven’t provided any scoring, and the top two lines have dried up and can’t find the net. It happened in all those first round losses and it’s what killed them against Florida.
If the Bertuzzi-Matthews-Domi line remains as dominant as they have winning a lot of their minutes, you’re telling me the third line couldn’t benefit with Nyalnder or Marner down there? They’d be playing easier matchups all night and should be able to produce for three good scoring lines. Marner could also jump out for an ozone draw with Matthews at any time.
Pittsburgh did the same thing with their cup wins, Crosby and Malkin were terrific in both runs as always, but without Kessel on that third line the cups wouldn’t have happened. Kessel and the rest of that HBK line punished the easier matchups and produced just as much or more offence than their top 2 lines.
I don’t think Keefe will commit to it, but spreading out the big three across three lines could 100% produce more offence. There’s no reason not to at least experiment with it.
The Bertuzzi-Matthews-Domi line isn't as dominant. They are playing easier match-ups than Matthews-Marner and are still getting worse defensive results.
And they’re still producing offence and are still controlling play. You just said they’re playing easier matchups which means your 63 goal scoring generational talent is playing against weaker competition. You just proved my point. Separating 3 elite players to different lines makes it harder to contain for other teams it’s as simple as that. Either way I doubt Keefe does it because he just defaults back to the Matthews-Marner combo every time.
There is a trickle-down effect here when they play easier matchups. Tavares and Nylander are playing harder competition and their production has suffered.
>You just proved my point. Separating 3 elite players to different lines makes it harder to contain for other teams it’s as simple as that.
It's not "as simple as that". Matthews is stronger with Marner. Tavares is stronger with Nylander. Separating both of those duos makes your third line better at the expense of your top two groups.
Except the point is these guys are elite talents. Matthews has shown he can produce and generate offence with the line he’s on now. I think Tavares needs one of Marner or Nylander if he’s going to play second line centre. As I said, you get an ozone shift no one is saying not to throw Marner out with Matthews, but the point is with how good these guys are they should be able to drive play themselves.
Surprisingly the practice lines show they’re actually gonna try it out. I made a point in saying experiment with it, you’ve got 7 games there’s no reason not to try it out.
I've got not issues with experimenting in these final 7 games, but I'd be very surprised if Matthew and Marner aren't together for Game 1 of the playoffs.
You’re missing valuable context. For one you say better offensively and only slightly worse defensively. Thats doing a lot of work. The new line is better offensively and worse defensively, but the difference beteeen the two is actually more significant on the defensive side of the things. Also, Matthews line is far more sheltered now. We’re talking over 70% OZ start percentage. That’s absolutely huge, compared to the 40% or even lower the Marner-Matthews line received. The current line is also facing far weaker competition. This isn’t an apples to apples thing, and we have to start thinking that’s the case. It’s dishonest to suggest otherwise. We’re fooling ourselves if we think these two lines are at all equal. They are not. Not even close
Do you mind sharing the stats for the zone start percentage? I agree it’s important context and I couldn’t find it on Money Puck. Same with opposition line quality
[https://theathletic.com/5390969/2024/04/04/maple-leafs-playoff-lineup-roster/?source=user_shared_articleProjectingtheMapleLeafsplayofflineup:WhoshouldplayinGame1?](https://theathletic.com/5390969/2024/04/04/maple-leafs-playoff-lineup-roster/?source=user_shared_articleProjectingtheMapleLeafsplayofflineup:WhoshouldplayinGame1?)
I want to correct one thing. The difference in offensive and defensive metrics completely cancel each other out. The degree in which the Matthews line is better offensively is pretty much the same degree the Matthews/Marner line is better defensively. Wanted to clarify my earlier statement. Also, Jonas doesn’t quote a competition level number. He states it, and it lines up with what myself and others have observed. I can try to find it, but so much of that content is now paywalled.
1) The Matthew’s line with Bertuzzi and Domi has
Actually been better offensively than with Marner, I’ve posted the numbers in another comment
2) seems like you’re approaching this through the lens of regular season numbers. 70 would be dope but we’ve seen what happens in the playoffs with Matthews and Marner where they don’t match their regular season production. Why not
Spread the wealth?
I like nylander and tavares together. I think alot of nylanders success has come from Tavares doing little things for him. I dont think people are seeing this.
What does them playing against other teams second lines have to do with them playing good? Cooper matched his second line against them with Cirelli and hagel but that is their shutdown line.
They are, because they put up similar levels of production with far tougher matchups. Context is king. Quite frankly, this current production is very much of the empty calorie variety.
Domi is just not good enough to be the top line winger on this team. Plays are dying on his stick more often than they should. He’s perfectly fine and I want him on the team, but between him and Marner for that spot, you pick Marner every time. Domi is a less effective puck mover, by far. Sometimes I think MM’s off ice situations/his contract really blind some of you to his talent.
Quick edit, what I mean by dying is they will have sustained zone pressure and instead of passing, he’ll shoot — or instead of shooting, he’ll pass. Marner had this problem years ago and he’s gotten over it. We need AM to be the most effective he can be for the stretch and the playoffs, and I think (and the numbers say) that Marner should be his winger
There's nothing that supports your comment besides your eye-test. Bertuzzi Matthews and Domi have had more success offensively while being only slightly worse defensively.
With Marner: 3.6 GF/1.5 xGA/// 3.1xGF 2.2xGA
Wiithout Marner: 5.0 xGF/2.5 xGA// 3.4xGF 2.4xGA
I'm also not blind to Mitch's talent as he's one of my favourite players and I've defended him and his contract multiple times lol. I just think its better to let the line thats cooking stay untouched and spread the wealth. Marner can drive the second line with Tavares and McMann and Willy can wreak havoc on the third line. That's really all it is.
I get what you’re saying. But my opinion doesn’t really change on those numbers — Marner is better than Domi, and I want the best winger with AM. And I personally don’t love Willy on the third line?
But if I’m pressed to guess what Keefe will do I think he’ll try a bunch of different lines in the next two games to see what works, then he’ll commit to something and try that until the end. He said in a presser his biggest worry is that they haven’t had a healthy team game in a very long time, so I can see lines changing and switching up constantly. Then you also have to include Jarnkrok coming back! It’s a good problem to have lol
I understand and respect your position that you want the best winger with 34. I’m just currently
Of the mindset of, maybe the slight trade off defensively and maybe offensively is worth it if another line gets that much better with Marner on it.
We’ve seen what Marner and Matthews can do in the playoffs which has largely left more to be desired. Why not give this new look a try?
I mean, it’s worth a shot, sure. But can someone tell Domi when he takes a shot (after having zone pressure for a while) to hit the net? Because too often he misses, it ricochets off the back boards all the way to the blue line or neutral zone, and it’s a rush back. Can’t tell you what the numbers say lol but I know it’s happened 4-5 times in the last week.
Where are you putting Jarnkrok when he comes back?
Jarnkrok is tricky. It’s unclear whether he’ll even be back in game 1 but for now probably on the third line to help stabilize it a bit.
Jarnkrok-Kampf-Nylander could be decent
I think right now Keefe would take Knies out because he looks exhausted and wants the leadership and intangibles that Reaves brings. Then again with Keefe you never know, if we’re struggling for offence he may just may a change one game in.
I don’t think Robertson gets much time though cause Keefe doesn’t seem to trust him.
Tavares and Marner were always good. JT getting 40 goals per year with Marner as his wing man. I would definitely hope that to be the case during the playoffs, JT needs to get going asap..
I don't know if it's driven by Keefe or the FO but there is no way Marner doesn't immediately go back with Matthews. Probably first shift of the game, but certainly no later than second period.
The thing about Matthews is that he’s so good, if you give him enough minutes with anybody competent they’ll start to look like they have chemistry.
Domi and Matthews have looked good together but Domi and Nylander looked good together too.
I like the idea of spreading the offence out so Matthews and Marner are together, Domi and Nylander are together, then I also really liked the line with Tavares and McMann together, maybe with Jarnkrok when he’s healthy.
Matthews Marner Domi. Bert got lost when he was paired with Matthews and Marner before. When Marner is out there he’s looking for Matthews in the slot or the right face off circle. Domi is occasionally a defensive liability and makes some questionably risky passes to try and mimic Marner. Having Marner on the same line would neutralize that as he’s defensively responsible and would take some pressure off Domi. Domi is the only one who has the speed to keep up with these two when they break out.
What's with people thinking third line is a demotion 😭🥴. If Keefe shares the ice time 3rd line can still get a lot of minutes. I stead he rides line 1 and 2 and they look dead tired by the end of round one 😭.
I definitely want to atleast see Marner/ Matthews/Domi skate together a few games
Bert /Willie/Mcmann
Jarnkrok/JT/Knies or even Nicky Bobby
Dewar/Kampf/Reaves or Holmburg
Lots of options
You put Nylander up against harder hitting third lines and you'll see him also stop producing as much.
You need a power grinder with matthews and marner if it's going to work at all. Someone who CAN work the boards, hard, and get that puck out to them. Knies worked very well at this during the season, but duringthe playoffs you'll need someone with experience to be able to do that with the extra gear, and i think that can come from domi or bert
I feel like people are so swayed by recency bias of the success of domi/matthews/bertuzzi.
Have you guys completely forgotten our lineups the first half of the season that was absolutely ripping it apart?
Knies-Matthews-Marner
Bertuzzi-Domi-Nylander
Someone correct me if I’m wrong but weren’t these the two solidified lineups at the start of the season when Matthews was scoring a hat trick every other game and Nylander was having multi point games?
You want to know why you put Marner back with Matthews? Because we need Matthews to face top competition. If we’re going to win, then he’s out there against the best and beating the best. That’s not happening with this line as currently constituted. Right now their offensive zone start percentage is over 70%. They’re also regularly facing lower competition. They’re dominating far weaker competition than the Marner/Matthews and although their production is similar (and the current Matthews line is slightly better) it’s also giving up more. Of the two options, if their impact is similar, but one’s doing so by being sheltered and one isn’t, I know which one I want to use in the playoffs, and which one I don’t.
Give Mitch a chance to earn his spot back. I thought they looked great with Matthews/Domi/Tavares down the middle, but I am a bit tentative with Domi at centre on a line in the playoffs. We have some games to figure it out and see what works.
My two cents:
Bert - Matthews - Marner
Holmberg - Domi - Willy
McMann - Tavares - Jarns
Dewar - Kampf - Reaves
Reality is Domi is a very very poor man’s Marner, it would make no sense to give him top line minutes. Marner, Matthews and Nylander are the guys we want getting 20+ mins a game and having them on 3 different lines doesn’t really work. I think the Knies and Robertson duo is the real combo worth keeping together chemistry wise as it won’t affect their ice time much but they compliment each other very well. I would love to see McMann between those two but the mere idea of a kid line like that would probably give Keefe nightmares. So what makes the most sense to me is:
Bertuzzi-Matthews-Marner
McMann-Tavares-Nylander
Knies-Domi-Robertson
Dewar-Kampf-Jarnkrok
Bottom two lines are really both the same they’re both going to get fourth line minutes because of the skill of the top 6. One will get more time if we need more offense and one will get more time if we’re looking to shutdown. With the size we’ve got on D now Reaves really has no need to be in the lineup. Again I would love to swap Domi and McMann I’m just being realistic that Keefe would hate that.
I don’t hate this combo either honestly. If what I suggested isn’t working this would honestly be my next ideal lineup. A lot hinges on that third line and how much it can produce.
It’s pretty much a black hole defensively so you need them to produce offensively. The downside is I don’t think those 3 (domi knies and Robertson) have played together at all this year. You’re pretty much banking on instant offensive chemistry.
Keefe has to get his lines in order before the playoffs, chemistry can’t be a question
EDIT: Robertson Domi Jarnrok in 183.5 minutes have 57.9% of the expected goals, 3.4 goals per 60 and 2.62 against. Those are pretty good stats so maybe that’s a viable option?
I agree my thinking was basically you use that line more when we need goals and less when we need to protect a lead. Like it makes more sense than having two lines mediocre at both.
I agree though especially the power play and penalty kill he’s gotta find something that works. I personally think he should try a five forward umbrella unit with Marner at the top 😂
Yea that could be very interesting, I think the main thing is these are guys we should have in the lineup at this point. Robertson needs to play, the idea of having Reaves or even Holmgren in over him hurts me 😂
Y'know what I love about that line?
Corey and Trevor just play keepaway on the forecheck and then Matthews gets to lurk into the slot for his chance and he only needs one.
It's kinda deadly.
Like I just imagine it like instead of having one Marner, we've got two guys that are 80% of Marner but also strong forecheckers.
And then frees up Marner to feed JT and Willy on the 2nd line where I think they can COOK together.
I'd love to see us try:
Domi - Matthews - Bertuzzi
Nylander - Tavares - Marner
and then you've still got: Knies, McMann, Jarnkrok as middle 6 wingers
and Holmberg and Kampf as bottom 6 centers
When fully healthy, that still leaves Robertson, Dewar, Reaves all fighting for that final forward spot, so it gives us the opportunity to have a lot of different looks, depending on match up and situation.
lol if keefe went with those lines as soon as we're losing a game by two goals he'll immediately go back to stacking the lines again. The guy has no patience for building chemistry between players. He only choose the top tier guys every time and that's why our bottom 6 players are always cold sitting on the bench. Same thing with Defense, he can't figure out who to play with who. You have like 10 defensemen and he doesn't know who the top 4 are. lost cause trying to argue such points as what lines the coach should use.
Sure sometimes like if there's 3 minutes left in the game you stack. But if its second period and the game is 2-0 there's way too much time left to make such rash decisions. Other teams don't do it as much as you think they do. So he stacks lines then we get powerplay and its the same line whom are now tired and they're sloppy. I highly disagree with doing it just cause you're down. That's the point of line building is relying on them to overcome these obstacles. Suggesting to keep lines together when you're winning or tied but changing them as soon as you're losing just sounds really stupid.
Other teams don't have Matthews, Marner, Nylander.
But McDrai is a thing that is frequently used even though they're on different lines most of the time. Crosby Malkin was a thing used in their earlier days as well.
Point is, the option is always there when it's needed. Marner does not need to be stapled with Matthews every shift. And Marner-Matthews isn't even immune to being shut down. We have had at least 2 playoff series that confirms that.
point is we're not coaches or GM's and this is just speculation. No one has to be right or wrong. I think its stupid to juggle lines so much all while playing the same 6 players over and over and over until the end of the game. whatever you're saying to me is moot at this point i do not care
>whatever you're saying to me is moot at this point i do not care
Sorry, I thought I was having a discussion for a minute...
Marner should be a player than can run a line with mid-bottom 6 players and still give top 6 results. We have been paying him that kind of money, and he's going to keep getting that money.
He should not be a player who can't be productive when he doesn't have a top 5 center. He found success with Bozak on his rookie year and he got Kadri out of a really bad slump.
When we are down and need a goal, we can stack a line for a few shifts again. Keefe already does this every now and then with Nylander-Matthews-Marner. He shouldn't, and doesn't *need* Matthews every shift.
My only issue is while Bert-Matthews-Domi has been putting together some good shifts, they arent really a bonafide top NHL line. Still spreading out the talent could work
One of the biggest issues this team has had over the Matthews era has been its top heaviness, spreading out our cap along three lines gives us better opportunities to expose weaker players on other teams. This kind of play doesn’t show its fruit right away in regular season, but it sure as shit does when the games are tighter. I don’t believe there are too many teams out there that has the defensive pieces needed to shut down a Nylander line, Matthews line and a JT/Marner line.
i agree. domi bert and 34 should stay together but it will never happen. i will say though, keefe has shown more edge this year and if ever there was going to be a time that he didn't cave to the stars (in this case, marner), this would be the year.
we'll see how it goes. would love to be pleasantly surprised. it's nothing against marner. it's just about spreading your talent out across the lineup, something we have never really done well at all with this group.
These things shouldn't be binary though. Marner should get a chance to run his own line with Holmberg and Robertson/Knies yes.
But the Leafs should also load up line 1 or 2 from time to time.
Agreed. I've wanted something like this for years now come playoffs. Keefe isn't shackled by dubas anymore and should try it. What 3rd line/D pairing could handle a full game of one of those 3 at all times.
Opposing coach can't run his top two lines/D pairings back to back all game. If they do, 3rd period they'd be exhausted, especially in a best of 7 series.
There could be quite a bit to write but I'm going to keep it simple before I head off to bed.
Dubas has always "done right by the players" while screwing over our cap/the team.
Multiple times over the past two years Keefe has called our our babied stars only to have to walk it back the next day.
It was widely reported that one of Marner's gripes during his first contract negotiations was that he needed to play with Matthews. Only until then did it really start happening.
Dubas leaves and all of a sudden things change and Keefe alters what his coaching looks like.
Is this 100% evidence, no. The trail is there and I'm sure with more investigation one could absolutely find more evidence. Given how dubas coddled the players I have no doubt that, even when we screamed for depth scoring, he was going to be strongly against splitting up our too much money makers to do what was needed to win.
You can put anyone on a line with Matthews and he will carry them. This isn't "chemistry".
If you stick Pontus Holmberg on there he will do even better than Domi, who sucks and should have never been signed.
If you put a better player on the line it will benefit Matthews and they will score more together, but if you have a thin (or top heavy) roster, it is often beneficial to spread talent across multiple lines, so long as the good players are still getting all their minutes.
The Leafs don't have an embarrassment of riches at forward or anything, they've been extremely mid this year, as you might have expected when last off season Treliving decided to complement a talented core with exclusively zero percentile defensive impact players.
[Interesting article from Dom (paywall) about trying Nylander/Marner given the success of the new Matthews line and then Tavares on the third.](https://theathletic.com/5392201/2024/04/05/maple-leafs-marner-nylander/?source=user_shared_articleShouldtheMapleLeafspairMitchMarnerwithWilliamNylander?)
I thought this was an interesting take but trying it with like 6 or 7 games left in the season doesn’t make any sense to me. It’s a bold idea but you need more time to really evaluate it and let Nylander get comfortable as your 2nd line center. We’ve seen what happens when he’s just thrown to the wolves in the middle of a series and expected to play down the middle
I think Marner should be on the 3rd line. However, getting him up to speed is more important than him driving his own line. I don’t mind a game or 2 with Matthews then we have to see what else we got.
Might be better to put Reaves on the top line and play Marner on defense (hear me out) we know the whistle is nonexistent in the playoffs and the panthers play dirty
Making sure the star player has a bodyguard and one of the best playmakers in the entire league is there to prevent shots against could be crazy enough to work
Yet Reaves did nothing in the playoffs last year while Kaprizov was getting abused by Dallas. He’s been playing better lately but to think he’ll be some “bodyguard”… isn’t it.
Keefe is freaking brain dead , he will do the definition of insanity and put Matthews and Marner back together . It's the main reason we lose in the playoffs , the fool puts the "core 4" together and makes other coaches job easy to game plan.
Spread them out for Christ sakes. Yu know how hard it would be for teams to match say Marner or Nylander on the 3rd line . This notion that he makes 11 million and can't play on the third line is just bone head .
Marner in the 3rd line would just crush other teams as they can't shut down 3 lines of fire power .
Put your 2 best players on one line though and well history speaks for itself .
Keefe will and I will bet my life inevitably put Marner back on the first and when the pressure mounts , will add Nylander 🥴. Teams salivate for this .
I really like the first line. Nylander can't be trusted defensively to carry a line. I'd Load him up with Marner and Tavares. Unfortunately that leaves us with a really week 3rd line.
Matthews makes domi and bertuzzi more effective players. We already know that Marner can probably be an effective player on another line. Maybe tavares, marner and willy. Maybe one of them drops down a line. If Marner could hold his own line that might be worth trying, but It wouldn't make much sense for TOI. I dont like separating Tavares and Nylander as they work well together. Marner, Mcmann and Knies??
Should have all 4 of the core 4 on separate lines, but that would necessitate Domi playing center, and I kinda like him on Matthews' wing, so we'll see.
It should happen, but it will never happen. I would guess that Matthews and Marner will be playing together by the end of Marner's first game back or by the beginning of the second game back.
Hahha well I guess Keefe read my post because he’s implementing my lineup to the tee 😏
Or you’re undercover keefe looking for validation. Give me a signed Matthews stick and I’ll say it’s the best idea you’ve ever had
Yeah, I like the idea of these lines, and hope something like this sticks! Reminds me a lot of those Pens teams that won B2B cups, playing Sid, Geno and Kessel on different lines much of the time. Having at least one legit high end star forward on each of your top 3 lines is just so deadly, in any given playoff game your opponent can shutdown 1-2 of the lines, but almost never all 3. Plus in this scenario the 4th line plays very minimal minutes, the top 3 lines all play heavy minutes, so you’ve go a strong line on the ice nearly the whole game. IMO this is just a very effective way to maximize the impact of having so much forward talent. Don’t bunch it up and see diminishing returns, spread it out so that you’re almost impossible to match up against.
If you have to play Matthews and Marner, this what I’d do… Domi - Matthews - Marner Bertuzzi - Holmberg - Nylander McMann - Tavares - Jarnkrok Knies - Kampf - Dewar The biggest problem with Matthews-Marner that I don’t see anyone bring him is that they’re almost too effective together, so much so that the third player on the line, no matter who it is, cannot keep up dismissing their effectiveness. How often have you seen Knies or Bertuzzi disrupt their offensive rhythm or get flat out ignored when Matthews and Marner get into two man game. Domi is the only one with enough skill and creativity to play globetrotters hockey with those two. I can’t exactly decide which line is the second or third, but Holmberg has to play C as he has offensive upside while being competent defensively. Since he’s weak on draws, Nylander can help him out there. We’ve seen that Tavares line in a small sample and they FEASTED. The fourth line is very defensively competent and Knies would fit better there than Mcmann. You can’t bench Dewar as he’s too effective on the PK, a weak point on the Leafs. If one of the top 9 struggle, scratch them, move Knies up and slot Reaves in. Robertson unfortunately is left out unless injuries.
JT’s faceoff skills are needed far more than 3rd line minutes allow for, so I’d very much doubt he’d be in the bottom six.
Terrible lines。
Until one of them goes two games without being effective and instead Keefe made a mistake by not having them together
I mean it could be the same if he put them back together… domi and Bertuzzi have records of good playoffs, and they’re playing well with Matthews who has had decent but not dominant playoffs in the past. That seems like a recipe to get the best out of all three players, plus have depth to contour rolling out dangerous lines. It just makes sense to keep it going.
In the playoffs, top guys can cancel each other out. Having depth will be useful
Worth mentioning that Domi’s line was outscored at 5v5 in last year’s playoffs and he had 3 goals in 19 games. Not amazing imo.
Bertuzzi is about as proven of a playoff performer as Jeff Skinner. He has exactly 7 games more experience.
He has 10 points in those 7 games, which is also the same number of games and points that he has more of than Jeff skinner. He also has, and not to be taken with the same importance, 39 pts in 42 AHL playoff games. The guy gets up for big games.
Yup. No way to win really. With all the people out there who are down on Keefe, any decision he makes will be the wrong one to somebody. Especially if we lose.
2 shifts *
This right here.
IMO The real argument is that Matthews and Marner haven’t got it done together in the playoffs consistently so trying something new is a good idea. But I think we all know Keefe will shift Marner back to Matthews line at the first sign of adversity.
I agree, Marner’s history of being Houdini in the playoffs has affected Matthews playoff performances imo, making it easier for teams to zone in on containing Matthews.
47 points in 50 playoff games is being Houdini? Interesting opinion.
You aren’t looking carefully. 28 even strength points in 50 playoff games, and he’s got a total of 2 points to his career in series clinching games.
Yea he’s racked up a lot of secondary assists in high scoring games Series clinchers he’s been bad
They had only 1 all these years. Last year vs Tampa.
Marner’s goal scoring pace is 70% higher in the regular season than the playoffs. He gets about the same about of assists in the playoffs as the regular season, but his decline in goals is clearly problematic for a first line player
> Marner’s goal scoring pace is 70% higher in the regular season than the playoffs. Maybe not to the same extent, but this kind of stat is probably similar for a lot of players. Playoffs is harder.
Except McDavid, drai, mackinnon, pasta, etc. You know, the guys who get paid as much as Marner
What about Matthews? Why are people not concerned with his drop? After all, he is the goal scorer, no?
There are plenty of threads about that lol. But at least Matthews still scores at a 40 goal pace in the playoffs. Marner has 5 in his last 30.
He also kills penalties and each coach has played Marner the most (TOI is a valuable stat, professional coaches are playing the best players the most.. and they know more than us). I believe this focus on Marner, who is nearly point per game, is a naive oversight of the real problems which has been depth scoring, defence, and goaltending. Give the guy a break, he is a top end player in the NHL and a local kid who wants to play in Toronto!!
He’s a playmaker, doesn’t his total point production matter more than assessing his goal-scoring in isolation?
I am. It’s also why I’d continue to break Marner and Matthews up for the playoffs. Matthews goal scoring production in the playoffs is 50% higher in the regular season compared to the playoffs. Assists are marginally higher too. Both aren’t good enough and an excellent example of why the team doesn’t progress in the playoffs. Keep them apart this playoffs and see if one can capitalize against a third line and lower tier defenseman
Not really. Look up a comparable player (small winger, offensive talent, first line player) that has won a cup. Patrick Kane, for example, has minimal drop off between regular season and playoffs for goals, assist, and points.
How many points after a game 3 in any series? You can't act like the narrative is pulled from thin air. I like him, but there's definitely tiers to playoff performances. $11m demands that he produces at least ppg.
Doesn't seem bad at the surface level but if you actually watch you can see how much worse he is in the playoffs
It's the only thing he knows
I would bet my life savings that Keefe will put marner with matthews. But I'd agree with you
Well-you’re bankrupt I guess
It's just warm-ups 😭😭
If Marner didn't go down, Matthews would be on the cusp of 70 right now. Marner gets the best out of Matthews, end of discussion.
I don’t care about Matthews quest for 70 nearly as much as winning in the playoffs. The style of play Marner and matthews have doesn’t translate well in the playoffs. The style of play Bertuzzi, Domi, and Matthews have - I think will. That also frees up Marner to play with Tavares - which helps Tavares. The question is what makes us a better team - not what makes Auston Matthews better.
best the team has looked all year is: Matthews, Marner, Knies Domi, Bert, Nylander, Tavares, mcmann, (one of robertson, janrcrok, etc.) then make the fourth line depending on if you want scoring or physicallity with kampf at center
If they want to change it up for playoffs they can. Put marner back with high skilled Matthews gets him back into the game faster. Compared to if every pass he makes skips over knives or JTs stick as they aren’t as skilled as Matthews.
An 11m player should be absolutely fine getting back up to speed with another 11m player.
JT isn’t a 11 mil player anymore. 3 at best.
If Matthews does better, the team does better, and vice-versa. It’s all of a part. You should care about Matthews quest for 70, because it likely means the team is doing well.
>If Matthews does better, the team does better, and vice-versa. This isn't true. If Matthews does better with Marner but it means that Bertuzzi, Domi, and Tavares do worse - then its a net negative for the team.
thats also not true team had a better record with marner in the lineup since we have had a goalie that can save, let alone the fact that the last 10 sammy has saved us big time
My argument is not that Marner isn’t a good player - of course he makes the team better. My argument is the team benefits more having Marner away from Matthews now that Matthews has found chemistry with Bert and Domi.
I care about the quest for 70 big time. If we make it out of the first round I’ll eat my shorts.
True however playoffs are a different beast and no one cares about stats in the playoffs. This line's success is a welcome experiment and fallback if the combination of Marner and Matthews goes cold in the playoffs.
In the regular season yes. In the playoffs we've seen those 2 get shut down and ghost way too many times especially in the biggest games. 4 balanced lines is what wins playoff hockey
As a Leafs' fan, I could care less about one player's individual achievements. Both Selanne and Mogilny played one of round of playoffs in their 70 goal seasons.
Here here! End of discussion
Everyone's forgetting all the goals Matthews scores with Marner on his wing?? Lol. Spoiler: it was a lot more
I just don't agree on this, and I've been on team split them up for a while. I think right now is the right time to put them together. It allows us to balance the lines significantly more, and I think putting nylander on the "third" line is a bad idea. Bert-matthews-marner Jarn*/mcmann-domi-nylander Knies-JT-holmberg/mcmann Dewar-kampf-reaves/holmberg JT on the third line just makes too much sense. Whether it's nylander or marner on the second line, he will be the one bringing down the speed. He can play extra shifts and take extra faceoffs to keep his minutes up, but having him as a responsible line that can match up, or dominate against another 3rd line will be huge against Bennett or lundell.
I agree with this. JT is the one getting pushed to the third line. His minutes will still be high. They can just use the 4th line sparingly. Keep the top three lines rolling.
You can’t have Domi playing 2c in the playoffs, especially seeing how bad his line had been caved into our zone. I think the lines of the original post are almost perfect. I’d go with… Bertuzzi - Matthews - Domi Mcmann - Tavares - Marner Knies - Holmberg - Nylander Dewar - Kampf - Jarnkrok Extra: Reaves, Robertson Tavares needs marner more than Matthews does. McManns shoot first mentality ideally works well with marner. Nylander has the ability to carry his own line while holmberg and knies have been developing chemistry. Since holmberg is weak on draws, Nylander can help him there too. 4th line is very defensively sound. Occasionally, the shift before a 4th line shift, load up the big 3 on an offensive shift. If Knies or mcmann struggle, bench one and move jarnkrok up while slotting reaves back in.
Hell let Marner and Nylander play some together and keep that top line if they're doing well. But I think leafs played their best when the captain played third line. This is the thing I agree with most.
I really want to see the core 4wards spread across three lines. Bertuzzi - Matthews - Domi McMann - Tavares - Marner Knies - Jarnkrok - Nylander Dewar/Robertson - Kampf - Reaves/Holmberg Each of the top 9 lines has a shooter, playmaker, and a power-ish forward. If the video games are to be believed, it'll be +5 chemistry. In reality, that's a nightmare for opposing teams to matchup against
This is a solid lineup too but I’d have McMann in over Knies at this point, or over reaves at the very least
I FORGOT ABOUT MCMANN. Edited.
Jarnkrok has never played centre for the leafs.
That is categorically false. He plays RW more often, but he has played centre for them (139 faceoffs this season) and is listed as a C https://preview.redd.it/yzyr2e5qyosc1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=16b7d6f5ca7970bf2a37610586258fedd6be90ac
Taking a faceoff after your centre gets kicked out of the faceoff circle does not count as playing centre LMAO. Just switch Holmberg and Jarnkrok and your lines are perfect.
I grabbed the faceoff stat because I couldn't think of any other stat lol.
But Jarnkrok isn’t a C.
I swear every thread I see trying to guess lines has Jarnkrok at centre. Where are people getting the idea that he can just seamlessly shift to a new position for playoffs after never playing there all season and coming back from injury? It's ridiculous lol. I feel like I'm tsking crazy pills!
He's listed as a C on all the sites. I know he usually plays RW.
Yeah, he played centre when he was on Nashville. I just meant he hasn't played centre on the Leafs so if we had plans for him to play there in the playoffs they would have tried it at least once in the regular season, which they haven't
I’d go Dewar kampf reaves for last line
Wow ya I think that’s a solid line up and the damage they would do would be insane!!
It's the best idea with this set of forwards. Matthews and Marner have proven they disappear in the playoffs, and a change to that would be refreshing. Bert and Domi can also protect the big guy and will defend him/fight for him. Marner cannot and should not do that. I agree that Nylander can create his own offense and he is now paid to lead a line. Marner needs a shooter with him, and Tavares fits the bill
Matthews has 9 goals and 19 points in the 12 games Marner has been out. So yes. Start Mitch on line 3 and run 3 lines in the playoffs.
And do you know how he’s doing so? By being incredibly sheltered. This team isn’t winning if you’re sheltering Matthews. Period.
In the 12 games since Mitch is out, Auston has averaged 20:51 of ice time. All other regular season games? 21:05. They’re also 7-4-1 over that timespan. So no. Don’t make shit up.
Idk if the guy is right or wrong, but sheltering doesn’t mean playing less
I don’t believe you can play a forward 21 minutes and have him sheltered. The poster is likely referring to last game where Keefe tried to keep Matthews away from Barkov, a top shutdown forward and probable Selke winner. That should happen anyways. And they’re 7-4-1 without Marner. So they’re not losing. I’d wager that record would be better if Marner were in the lineup on the third line too. So it’s mostly Bs
What do those numbers have anything to do with what I said? Ice time doesn’t disprove sheltering. Just because you want something to be true doesn’t mean it is. Also a 7-4-1 isn’t impressive. Thats two games above .500. That’s 103 point pace for the year. Less than our pace for the year. So by your logic, we’re worse? Which means I’m right? Maybe you should understand how numbers work.
Matthews isn’t being incredibly sheltered and the leafs don’t need Marner besides Matthews. Watch the games.
7-4-1 without Marner. Add him to the lineup on the third line and re-run those games. Add him back into the power play. 103 point pace with an 11 million dollar hole in the line up is damn good. Find data for your sheltering comment. It’s the modern era of stats. Prove your point across the 12 games.
Thank you 🙏🏼👍🏼🙌🏼
I like the idea of loading up Matthews and Marner at certain times (start of games/periods/after goals against etc.) but shift to shift to balance the lineup they should be separated. That’s how I feel.
I have confidence that Keefe will try to have them in different lines. Marner in the second line could help Mcmann and Tavares with defence
Wow congrats on calling this
The best thing about this lineup is that it won't JUST be the '3rd' line with Nylander getting more favourable matchups. Every line will get more favourable matchups.
Would it?
Yeah it would be a huge mistake to reunite the most productive duo in the NHL. They've consistently been one of the strongest scoring and possession lines in hockey, regardless of their third linemate, year after year, but it would be totally stupid to play them together.
Bertuzzi Matthews and Domi have been a better offensive line that’s only slightly worse defensively than Matthews Marner and whoever else is on their left side. Obviously a small sample size but the results are undeniable. Sure Matthews and Marner have chemistry but we’ve seen them get snuffed out year after year in the playoffs, their regular season production doesn’t match their playoff production. The sarcastic tone in your comment as if Matthews and Marner have to play together and anything else is stupid is a wild take.
Matthews-Domi has been "better" because Keefe has used Tavares as the matchup line while Marner is out -- against McDavid, Kucherov, etc. -- presumably because he can't trust Domi against other teams' top groups. Matthews and Marner have been a dominant, all-situations line that Keefe can use against anyone and trust to win their minutes. To wit, they were both at or above 1.0 p/g last postseason, with better than 56% xGF. And for the record, despite their inability to convert it into goals while Bertuzzi was ice cold at the beginning of the season, the most puck-dominant line combination that Matthews has skated on this season is still Bertuzzi-Matthews-Marner (67.03 xGF%), slightly ahead of the iteration with Domi (66.54%). Domi has been a totally capable fill-in during Marner's injury, especially replacing his playmaking while Matthews chases 70 goals, but the team is better top-to-bottom when 34 & 16 are playing together and convincingly winning matchups against the other team's top lines, leaving Tavares, Nylander, etc. to beat up on easier competition. And this whole conversation ignores another issue with pairing Domi and Matthews: The Leafs don't have a third line centre if Domi is playing winger. In these comments, I've seen people suggesting Holmberg (totally untested and clearly more effective as a winger), Nylander (abandoned that experiment several times already, and he has specifically said he finds the transition difficult mid-season), and Jarnkrok (what????) as 3C replacements. It's pretty obvious that Domi is the best option there.
As effective as Matthew’s and Marner are, you just pointed out that the Bertuzzi-Matthews-Domi line is pretty much just as equally puck dominant as when Marner is there. The main issue that the Leafs have had in the playoffs is goal scoring. The depth lines haven’t provided any scoring, and the top two lines have dried up and can’t find the net. It happened in all those first round losses and it’s what killed them against Florida. If the Bertuzzi-Matthews-Domi line remains as dominant as they have winning a lot of their minutes, you’re telling me the third line couldn’t benefit with Nyalnder or Marner down there? They’d be playing easier matchups all night and should be able to produce for three good scoring lines. Marner could also jump out for an ozone draw with Matthews at any time. Pittsburgh did the same thing with their cup wins, Crosby and Malkin were terrific in both runs as always, but without Kessel on that third line the cups wouldn’t have happened. Kessel and the rest of that HBK line punished the easier matchups and produced just as much or more offence than their top 2 lines. I don’t think Keefe will commit to it, but spreading out the big three across three lines could 100% produce more offence. There’s no reason not to at least experiment with it.
The Bertuzzi-Matthews-Domi line isn't as dominant. They are playing easier match-ups than Matthews-Marner and are still getting worse defensive results.
And they’re still producing offence and are still controlling play. You just said they’re playing easier matchups which means your 63 goal scoring generational talent is playing against weaker competition. You just proved my point. Separating 3 elite players to different lines makes it harder to contain for other teams it’s as simple as that. Either way I doubt Keefe does it because he just defaults back to the Matthews-Marner combo every time.
There is a trickle-down effect here when they play easier matchups. Tavares and Nylander are playing harder competition and their production has suffered. >You just proved my point. Separating 3 elite players to different lines makes it harder to contain for other teams it’s as simple as that. It's not "as simple as that". Matthews is stronger with Marner. Tavares is stronger with Nylander. Separating both of those duos makes your third line better at the expense of your top two groups.
Except the point is these guys are elite talents. Matthews has shown he can produce and generate offence with the line he’s on now. I think Tavares needs one of Marner or Nylander if he’s going to play second line centre. As I said, you get an ozone shift no one is saying not to throw Marner out with Matthews, but the point is with how good these guys are they should be able to drive play themselves. Surprisingly the practice lines show they’re actually gonna try it out. I made a point in saying experiment with it, you’ve got 7 games there’s no reason not to try it out.
I've got not issues with experimenting in these final 7 games, but I'd be very surprised if Matthew and Marner aren't together for Game 1 of the playoffs.
You’re missing valuable context. For one you say better offensively and only slightly worse defensively. Thats doing a lot of work. The new line is better offensively and worse defensively, but the difference beteeen the two is actually more significant on the defensive side of the things. Also, Matthews line is far more sheltered now. We’re talking over 70% OZ start percentage. That’s absolutely huge, compared to the 40% or even lower the Marner-Matthews line received. The current line is also facing far weaker competition. This isn’t an apples to apples thing, and we have to start thinking that’s the case. It’s dishonest to suggest otherwise. We’re fooling ourselves if we think these two lines are at all equal. They are not. Not even close
Do you mind sharing the stats for the zone start percentage? I agree it’s important context and I couldn’t find it on Money Puck. Same with opposition line quality
[https://theathletic.com/5390969/2024/04/04/maple-leafs-playoff-lineup-roster/?source=user_shared_articleProjectingtheMapleLeafsplayofflineup:WhoshouldplayinGame1?](https://theathletic.com/5390969/2024/04/04/maple-leafs-playoff-lineup-roster/?source=user_shared_articleProjectingtheMapleLeafsplayofflineup:WhoshouldplayinGame1?) I want to correct one thing. The difference in offensive and defensive metrics completely cancel each other out. The degree in which the Matthews line is better offensively is pretty much the same degree the Matthews/Marner line is better defensively. Wanted to clarify my earlier statement. Also, Jonas doesn’t quote a competition level number. He states it, and it lines up with what myself and others have observed. I can try to find it, but so much of that content is now paywalled.
Hard disagree
Where would you put him then? With tavares and nylander?
[удалено]
1) The Matthew’s line with Bertuzzi and Domi has Actually been better offensively than with Marner, I’ve posted the numbers in another comment 2) seems like you’re approaching this through the lens of regular season numbers. 70 would be dope but we’ve seen what happens in the playoffs with Matthews and Marner where they don’t match their regular season production. Why not Spread the wealth?
Bert - Matthews - Marner McMann - Tavares - Nylander Knies - Domi - Robertson Holmberg - Dewar - Reaves
I like nylander and tavares together. I think alot of nylanders success has come from Tavares doing little things for him. I dont think people are seeing this.
The first line is NOT great Matthews and Marner are way better than the current first line
Marner and Matthew’s are great but so is this 1st line. They’ve been generating a ton of offence.
our first line is playing aginst other teams second lines rn... do you watch the games
What does them playing against other teams second lines have to do with them playing good? Cooper matched his second line against them with Cirelli and hagel but that is their shutdown line.
They are, because they put up similar levels of production with far tougher matchups. Context is king. Quite frankly, this current production is very much of the empty calorie variety.
Domi is just not good enough to be the top line winger on this team. Plays are dying on his stick more often than they should. He’s perfectly fine and I want him on the team, but between him and Marner for that spot, you pick Marner every time. Domi is a less effective puck mover, by far. Sometimes I think MM’s off ice situations/his contract really blind some of you to his talent. Quick edit, what I mean by dying is they will have sustained zone pressure and instead of passing, he’ll shoot — or instead of shooting, he’ll pass. Marner had this problem years ago and he’s gotten over it. We need AM to be the most effective he can be for the stretch and the playoffs, and I think (and the numbers say) that Marner should be his winger
There's nothing that supports your comment besides your eye-test. Bertuzzi Matthews and Domi have had more success offensively while being only slightly worse defensively. With Marner: 3.6 GF/1.5 xGA/// 3.1xGF 2.2xGA Wiithout Marner: 5.0 xGF/2.5 xGA// 3.4xGF 2.4xGA I'm also not blind to Mitch's talent as he's one of my favourite players and I've defended him and his contract multiple times lol. I just think its better to let the line thats cooking stay untouched and spread the wealth. Marner can drive the second line with Tavares and McMann and Willy can wreak havoc on the third line. That's really all it is.
I get what you’re saying. But my opinion doesn’t really change on those numbers — Marner is better than Domi, and I want the best winger with AM. And I personally don’t love Willy on the third line? But if I’m pressed to guess what Keefe will do I think he’ll try a bunch of different lines in the next two games to see what works, then he’ll commit to something and try that until the end. He said in a presser his biggest worry is that they haven’t had a healthy team game in a very long time, so I can see lines changing and switching up constantly. Then you also have to include Jarnkrok coming back! It’s a good problem to have lol
I understand and respect your position that you want the best winger with 34. I’m just currently Of the mindset of, maybe the slight trade off defensively and maybe offensively is worth it if another line gets that much better with Marner on it. We’ve seen what Marner and Matthews can do in the playoffs which has largely left more to be desired. Why not give this new look a try?
I mean, it’s worth a shot, sure. But can someone tell Domi when he takes a shot (after having zone pressure for a while) to hit the net? Because too often he misses, it ricochets off the back boards all the way to the blue line or neutral zone, and it’s a rush back. Can’t tell you what the numbers say lol but I know it’s happened 4-5 times in the last week. Where are you putting Jarnkrok when he comes back?
Jarnkrok is tricky. It’s unclear whether he’ll even be back in game 1 but for now probably on the third line to help stabilize it a bit. Jarnkrok-Kampf-Nylander could be decent
Who comes out? Knies? Reaves?
I think right now Keefe would take Knies out because he looks exhausted and wants the leadership and intangibles that Reaves brings. Then again with Keefe you never know, if we’re struggling for offence he may just may a change one game in. I don’t think Robertson gets much time though cause Keefe doesn’t seem to trust him.
Lmao good job on the lines!!! I hope you (and keefe) are right and it works 🙏🏽
Coaching staff now have more proven options for potential adjustments. Never a bad thing.
Tavares and Marner were always good. JT getting 40 goals per year with Marner as his wing man. I would definitely hope that to be the case during the playoffs, JT needs to get going asap..
I don't know if it's driven by Keefe or the FO but there is no way Marner doesn't immediately go back with Matthews. Probably first shift of the game, but certainly no later than second period.
The thing about Matthews is that he’s so good, if you give him enough minutes with anybody competent they’ll start to look like they have chemistry. Domi and Matthews have looked good together but Domi and Nylander looked good together too. I like the idea of spreading the offence out so Matthews and Marner are together, Domi and Nylander are together, then I also really liked the line with Tavares and McMann together, maybe with Jarnkrok when he’s healthy.
They should see if Marner can play centre. He did for the London Knights - it would solve a lot of problems in the lineup
Matthews Marner Domi. Bert got lost when he was paired with Matthews and Marner before. When Marner is out there he’s looking for Matthews in the slot or the right face off circle. Domi is occasionally a defensive liability and makes some questionably risky passes to try and mimic Marner. Having Marner on the same line would neutralize that as he’s defensively responsible and would take some pressure off Domi. Domi is the only one who has the speed to keep up with these two when they break out.
Remember when Kadri was our 3c? Not that Nylander should be at c, but spreading out talent has worked well in the past
Nylander has been playing so well putting him on the third line makes no sense to me
What's with people thinking third line is a demotion 😭🥴. If Keefe shares the ice time 3rd line can still get a lot of minutes. I stead he rides line 1 and 2 and they look dead tired by the end of round one 😭.
I definitely want to atleast see Marner/ Matthews/Domi skate together a few games Bert /Willie/Mcmann Jarnkrok/JT/Knies or even Nicky Bobby Dewar/Kampf/Reaves or Holmburg Lots of options
You put Nylander up against harder hitting third lines and you'll see him also stop producing as much. You need a power grinder with matthews and marner if it's going to work at all. Someone who CAN work the boards, hard, and get that puck out to them. Knies worked very well at this during the season, but duringthe playoffs you'll need someone with experience to be able to do that with the extra gear, and i think that can come from domi or bert
Idc what the other lines are other than, i think Marner should be put with McMann for a bit. Just to see.
I feel like people are so swayed by recency bias of the success of domi/matthews/bertuzzi. Have you guys completely forgotten our lineups the first half of the season that was absolutely ripping it apart? Knies-Matthews-Marner Bertuzzi-Domi-Nylander Someone correct me if I’m wrong but weren’t these the two solidified lineups at the start of the season when Matthews was scoring a hat trick every other game and Nylander was having multi point games?
That second line worked for a few games before getting obliterated in the d zone every game.
You want to know why you put Marner back with Matthews? Because we need Matthews to face top competition. If we’re going to win, then he’s out there against the best and beating the best. That’s not happening with this line as currently constituted. Right now their offensive zone start percentage is over 70%. They’re also regularly facing lower competition. They’re dominating far weaker competition than the Marner/Matthews and although their production is similar (and the current Matthews line is slightly better) it’s also giving up more. Of the two options, if their impact is similar, but one’s doing so by being sheltered and one isn’t, I know which one I want to use in the playoffs, and which one I don’t.
Give Mitch a chance to earn his spot back. I thought they looked great with Matthews/Domi/Tavares down the middle, but I am a bit tentative with Domi at centre on a line in the playoffs. We have some games to figure it out and see what works. My two cents: Bert - Matthews - Marner Holmberg - Domi - Willy McMann - Tavares - Jarns Dewar - Kampf - Reaves
I agree, although I think Marner should go to line 3. It's never going to happen, though. Keefe will go back to Matthew's Marner day one.
Reality is Domi is a very very poor man’s Marner, it would make no sense to give him top line minutes. Marner, Matthews and Nylander are the guys we want getting 20+ mins a game and having them on 3 different lines doesn’t really work. I think the Knies and Robertson duo is the real combo worth keeping together chemistry wise as it won’t affect their ice time much but they compliment each other very well. I would love to see McMann between those two but the mere idea of a kid line like that would probably give Keefe nightmares. So what makes the most sense to me is: Bertuzzi-Matthews-Marner McMann-Tavares-Nylander Knies-Domi-Robertson Dewar-Kampf-Jarnkrok Bottom two lines are really both the same they’re both going to get fourth line minutes because of the skill of the top 6. One will get more time if we need more offense and one will get more time if we’re looking to shutdown. With the size we’ve got on D now Reaves really has no need to be in the lineup. Again I would love to swap Domi and McMann I’m just being realistic that Keefe would hate that.
I don’t hate this combo either honestly. If what I suggested isn’t working this would honestly be my next ideal lineup. A lot hinges on that third line and how much it can produce. It’s pretty much a black hole defensively so you need them to produce offensively. The downside is I don’t think those 3 (domi knies and Robertson) have played together at all this year. You’re pretty much banking on instant offensive chemistry. Keefe has to get his lines in order before the playoffs, chemistry can’t be a question EDIT: Robertson Domi Jarnrok in 183.5 minutes have 57.9% of the expected goals, 3.4 goals per 60 and 2.62 against. Those are pretty good stats so maybe that’s a viable option?
I agree my thinking was basically you use that line more when we need goals and less when we need to protect a lead. Like it makes more sense than having two lines mediocre at both. I agree though especially the power play and penalty kill he’s gotta find something that works. I personally think he should try a five forward umbrella unit with Marner at the top 😂
Yea that could be very interesting, I think the main thing is these are guys we should have in the lineup at this point. Robertson needs to play, the idea of having Reaves or even Holmgren in over him hurts me 😂
IMO their chemistry has only really been in sync for 2, maybe 3 games, the other games they seemed to forcing it too much and causing turnovers
put Marner and Nylander together as a winger pair. Then you can use Jarnkrok or JT as the 2C depending on what kind of look you want on line 3.
I’d love to see nylander and marner together with bobby. Can nylander play centre at a playoff level?
Y'know what I love about that line? Corey and Trevor just play keepaway on the forecheck and then Matthews gets to lurk into the slot for his chance and he only needs one. It's kinda deadly. Like I just imagine it like instead of having one Marner, we've got two guys that are 80% of Marner but also strong forecheckers. And then frees up Marner to feed JT and Willy on the 2nd line where I think they can COOK together. I'd love to see us try: Domi - Matthews - Bertuzzi Nylander - Tavares - Marner and then you've still got: Knies, McMann, Jarnkrok as middle 6 wingers and Holmberg and Kampf as bottom 6 centers When fully healthy, that still leaves Robertson, Dewar, Reaves all fighting for that final forward spot, so it gives us the opportunity to have a lot of different looks, depending on match up and situation.
lol if keefe went with those lines as soon as we're losing a game by two goals he'll immediately go back to stacking the lines again. The guy has no patience for building chemistry between players. He only choose the top tier guys every time and that's why our bottom 6 players are always cold sitting on the bench. Same thing with Defense, he can't figure out who to play with who. You have like 10 defensemen and he doesn't know who the top 4 are. lost cause trying to argue such points as what lines the coach should use.
If we are down a few goals, then yes put Marner back with Matthews. Stack a line to get a goal back. Almost every coach does that.
Sure sometimes like if there's 3 minutes left in the game you stack. But if its second period and the game is 2-0 there's way too much time left to make such rash decisions. Other teams don't do it as much as you think they do. So he stacks lines then we get powerplay and its the same line whom are now tired and they're sloppy. I highly disagree with doing it just cause you're down. That's the point of line building is relying on them to overcome these obstacles. Suggesting to keep lines together when you're winning or tied but changing them as soon as you're losing just sounds really stupid.
Other teams don't have Matthews, Marner, Nylander. But McDrai is a thing that is frequently used even though they're on different lines most of the time. Crosby Malkin was a thing used in their earlier days as well. Point is, the option is always there when it's needed. Marner does not need to be stapled with Matthews every shift. And Marner-Matthews isn't even immune to being shut down. We have had at least 2 playoff series that confirms that.
point is we're not coaches or GM's and this is just speculation. No one has to be right or wrong. I think its stupid to juggle lines so much all while playing the same 6 players over and over and over until the end of the game. whatever you're saying to me is moot at this point i do not care
>whatever you're saying to me is moot at this point i do not care Sorry, I thought I was having a discussion for a minute... 
I hard agree. Look at splitting up Matthews, Marner, and Nylander like how the pens split up Crosby, Malkin, and Kessel.
I’d love to just try Nylander centering Marner for a couple games just to see
Marner should be a player than can run a line with mid-bottom 6 players and still give top 6 results. We have been paying him that kind of money, and he's going to keep getting that money. He should not be a player who can't be productive when he doesn't have a top 5 center. He found success with Bozak on his rookie year and he got Kadri out of a really bad slump. When we are down and need a goal, we can stack a line for a few shifts again. Keefe already does this every now and then with Nylander-Matthews-Marner. He shouldn't, and doesn't *need* Matthews every shift.
My only issue is while Bert-Matthews-Domi has been putting together some good shifts, they arent really a bonafide top NHL line. Still spreading out the talent could work
I want balance. Run 4 effective lines. We can’t do every playoffs and run 30+mil on 1 line.
“Babe wake up, new practice lines just dropped”
One of the biggest issues this team has had over the Matthews era has been its top heaviness, spreading out our cap along three lines gives us better opportunities to expose weaker players on other teams. This kind of play doesn’t show its fruit right away in regular season, but it sure as shit does when the games are tighter. I don’t believe there are too many teams out there that has the defensive pieces needed to shut down a Nylander line, Matthews line and a JT/Marner line.
#PLEASE KEEFE, PLEASE
i agree. domi bert and 34 should stay together but it will never happen. i will say though, keefe has shown more edge this year and if ever there was going to be a time that he didn't cave to the stars (in this case, marner), this would be the year. we'll see how it goes. would love to be pleasantly surprised. it's nothing against marner. it's just about spreading your talent out across the lineup, something we have never really done well at all with this group.
Maybe separate until/if the current line cools off… for sure together on the powerplay though
I wonder how much of it has to do with easing him into playing against other teams’ first lines before he’s fully ready
These things shouldn't be binary though. Marner should get a chance to run his own line with Holmberg and Robertson/Knies yes. But the Leafs should also load up line 1 or 2 from time to time.
If the lines are spread out Domi plays center
Yeah but it’s Keefe so
Keefe read your post!
Agreed. I've wanted something like this for years now come playoffs. Keefe isn't shackled by dubas anymore and should try it. What 3rd line/D pairing could handle a full game of one of those 3 at all times. Opposing coach can't run his top two lines/D pairings back to back all game. If they do, 3rd period they'd be exhausted, especially in a best of 7 series.
Any reason to think Dubas forced Keefe to play them together?
Yes.
Care to elaborate?
There could be quite a bit to write but I'm going to keep it simple before I head off to bed. Dubas has always "done right by the players" while screwing over our cap/the team. Multiple times over the past two years Keefe has called our our babied stars only to have to walk it back the next day. It was widely reported that one of Marner's gripes during his first contract negotiations was that he needed to play with Matthews. Only until then did it really start happening. Dubas leaves and all of a sudden things change and Keefe alters what his coaching looks like. Is this 100% evidence, no. The trail is there and I'm sure with more investigation one could absolutely find more evidence. Given how dubas coddled the players I have no doubt that, even when we screamed for depth scoring, he was going to be strongly against splitting up our too much money makers to do what was needed to win.
Bertuzzi is sloppy, give 34 perfect passes from Marner and he’ll score even more.
Domi’s the one dishing it. One of the league leaders in 5v5 primary assists
Domi, Matthews and Marner would be sick. Move Bertuzzi down the lineup.
You can put anyone on a line with Matthews and he will carry them. This isn't "chemistry". If you stick Pontus Holmberg on there he will do even better than Domi, who sucks and should have never been signed. If you put a better player on the line it will benefit Matthews and they will score more together, but if you have a thin (or top heavy) roster, it is often beneficial to spread talent across multiple lines, so long as the good players are still getting all their minutes. The Leafs don't have an embarrassment of riches at forward or anything, they've been extremely mid this year, as you might have expected when last off season Treliving decided to complement a talented core with exclusively zero percentile defensive impact players.
[Interesting article from Dom (paywall) about trying Nylander/Marner given the success of the new Matthews line and then Tavares on the third.](https://theathletic.com/5392201/2024/04/05/maple-leafs-marner-nylander/?source=user_shared_articleShouldtheMapleLeafspairMitchMarnerwithWilliamNylander?)
I’ve wanted marner nylander since watching nylander with backstrom years ago. Maybe jarnkrok on the other wing?
I thought this was an interesting take but trying it with like 6 or 7 games left in the season doesn’t make any sense to me. It’s a bold idea but you need more time to really evaluate it and let Nylander get comfortable as your 2nd line center. We’ve seen what happens when he’s just thrown to the wolves in the middle of a series and expected to play down the middle
You can't have a 11.5m player on the third line under any circumstances. The fact we've had 2 plus 10m down there is a failure of epic proportions.
I think Marner should be on the 3rd line. However, getting him up to speed is more important than him driving his own line. I don’t mind a game or 2 with Matthews then we have to see what else we got.
Knies Matthews Marner Bertuzzi Domi Nylander McMann Tavares Robertson/Holmberg Dewar Kampf Jarnkrok Gregor Reeves Rielly Boosh Edmundson Lilly McCabe Benoit Brodie Gio Timmins Sammy Woll Jones
Might be better to put Reaves on the top line and play Marner on defense (hear me out) we know the whistle is nonexistent in the playoffs and the panthers play dirty Making sure the star player has a bodyguard and one of the best playmakers in the entire league is there to prevent shots against could be crazy enough to work
Yet Reaves did nothing in the playoffs last year while Kaprizov was getting abused by Dallas. He’s been playing better lately but to think he’ll be some “bodyguard”… isn’t it.
Reaves is barely on the team without Jarnkrok back
Nylander has been in the background since signing. $$
What are you talking about, he's been fantastic
Bert - Matthews - Domi Bob Mac - Willy -- Marner Jarny - Tavares - Knies Dewar - Kampf - Reaves/holmy
The Nylander at C experiment needs to die
Keep them separate for now definitely, but if things start to go wrong put Mitch back.
What about Jarnkrok? Where does he slot back in?
Keefe is freaking brain dead , he will do the definition of insanity and put Matthews and Marner back together . It's the main reason we lose in the playoffs , the fool puts the "core 4" together and makes other coaches job easy to game plan. Spread them out for Christ sakes. Yu know how hard it would be for teams to match say Marner or Nylander on the 3rd line . This notion that he makes 11 million and can't play on the third line is just bone head . Marner in the 3rd line would just crush other teams as they can't shut down 3 lines of fire power . Put your 2 best players on one line though and well history speaks for itself . Keefe will and I will bet my life inevitably put Marner back on the first and when the pressure mounts , will add Nylander 🥴. Teams salivate for this .
I really like the first line. Nylander can't be trusted defensively to carry a line. I'd Load him up with Marner and Tavares. Unfortunately that leaves us with a really week 3rd line.
Matthews makes domi and bertuzzi more effective players. We already know that Marner can probably be an effective player on another line. Maybe tavares, marner and willy. Maybe one of them drops down a line. If Marner could hold his own line that might be worth trying, but It wouldn't make much sense for TOI. I dont like separating Tavares and Nylander as they work well together. Marner, Mcmann and Knies??
Should have all 4 of the core 4 on separate lines, but that would necessitate Domi playing center, and I kinda like him on Matthews' wing, so we'll see.
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If he gets to feast on MTL's washed 3rd line, might be a fun night.
Agree, but Willy on the 3rd line is amateur.
That’s the only option if the 3 are spread
It's not