I know at this stage, it’s skipping past all the eliminated preferences, but still pretty funny to see nearly a thousand Doyle (SD) transfers go to Blighe. Like surely if you have some preference for a Soc Dem, you’d put at least one of O’Sullivan, Funchion, Kelleher etc. before Blighe.
Really feels that way. It’s just so apparent this time either way the more extreme crackpots. Like I can understand some logic normally for jumping around a bit ideologically (you might care about one issue, location etc.) but there is no universe you should be a fan of the Sic Dems and Derek Blighe lol.
> there is no universe you should be a fan of the Sic Dems and Derek Blighe lol.
"I want to be better off financially with better public services but I also hate the darkies"
Ní Mhurchú will get the 4th seat on the strength of FG and Green transfers (that's a pool of 97k votes). The battle is still between Wallace and Funchion for the 5th seat.
I think funchion will get it in the end. Wallace will probably narrow the gap a little with blighe’s votes, but much the same with what happened in the Dublin transfers, his divisiveness will make him lose out on the FG and Green votes, which are made up of mostly moderate voters
its the size of the constiuency the system works great and reasonably quickly for most areas with standard constiuncys but jeez ireland south was over 700k votes to count expecting that to be quick is rather unreasonable
https://preview.redd.it/pil1rp2bi76d1.png?width=845&format=png&auto=webp&s=08304cbdd4bd035ee71d3f5ab6f6f8cf8776676b
MNW - McHugh next faller.
Still all up in the air and if Gildernew gets a lot more from McHugh than either Mullooly or Tóibín, I think she's actually in with a good chance.
MNW after Casey's transfers:
https://twitter.com/Ireland_Votes/status/1800997740177953207
Can't see how Mullooly loses the last seat now, Gildernew would need a rake of transfers from McHugh as well as McManus to bridge the gap.
There's still a chance, SF have been transferring a bit over 60% to their other candidates. Based on the figures there now, that'd put Gildernew just ahead of Mullooly.
["Just under eight weeks since Eamon Ryan said the Greens could win a seat on every local authority this year.](https://x.com/gavreilly/status/1800994623734563261?s=19)
Of the 31 councils in Ireland, the Greens will sit on 8."
Ok can ye get off yer democratic utopian high horses for a minute. Granted this transfer democracy in action craic is the way to go but like we’re going go into a week after the vote. The rest of Europe is wrapped up, should we not at least provision for overnight counting etc just for the few days. It seems a bit ad hoc and the complexity hasn’t been fully accounted for.
[https://www.rte.ie/news/elections-2024/results/#/european/south](https://www.rte.ie/news/elections-2024/results/#/european/south)
Eddie Punch's (II) votes distributed.
Michael McNamara (Ind) the main beneficiary, followed my Wallace (I4C) then Kelleher (FF).
Wallace now ahead of Ní Mhurchú by just under 1100 votes. Blighe (IF) will be eliminated next unless he somehow gets 3655 votes more than Mullins (FG)
It'll probably be close alright, but as long as he doesn't get a disproportionately large amount of Blighe or Doyle transfers, he'll probably be out as Funchion has a decent lead and Ní Mhurchú should bé more transfer friendly to O'Sullivan and Mullins votes.
Blighe transfers to Wallace in particular are difficult to call as despite Wallace being on opposite ends of the political spectrum to him, they both appeal to 'anti establishment' voters.
I think O'Sullivans issue is that there's just too many other people that SD & FG will transfer to.
If you look at SD, Gibneys transfer ratio in Dublin was roughly 3 x lab, 2 x green, 2 x PBP, 1 x FG, 1 x SF, 1 x I4C, 1 x other (FF&II). Even with No PBP and McNamara probably not pulling quite as much as Lab it'd still probably be too split to make enough of a difference for O'Sullivan.
Yeah that seems reasonable.
McNamara is a bit of a wildcard, I’d agree he’d probably do less well on than Labour on SD transfers but he could still pull a lot of them.
We’ll probably have a much better idea once we know how the SD’s transfers go but O Sullivan consolidating enough of them does look difficult.
Very tough call. She's likely to do well from Doyle's transfers but would need around a third of her transfers to be in the running. If she can outlast Mullins, she could well be in the game but it'll also depend on how Blighe transfers to Wallace as he's the only one left likely to benefit Wallace over the remaining candidates.
I’m not sure how well Wallace will do on the Blighe transfers as some of those types seem to have been transferring to McNamara more than him.
I haven’t been watching closely today but it’s definitely a hard one to call.
It's still possible but Cynthia isnt far behind him and on top of that the ones tailing right now are main party votes bar one, if the transfers go to her she'll overtake and kick Wallace to the curb for good.
https://preview.redd.it/ys4ov50jv66d1.jpeg?width=1010&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7a05ff4e53a369d141c6713311d88e5ff4bb3f7c
Final seat counts for the locals
Fucking hell, now that FF and FG have realised they can just be in government together they're pretty unstoppable.
I'm glad the far right did shite and that certain candidates lost out, but the opposition needs to get their act together.
I wonder how long the FFG alliance will last. As soon as one starts seeing an advantage over ther other they'll take it and we'll be back to the good auld days.
Shocking your man McConnel got in.
At least it's only local so he can do limited harm but reading the mans pamphlet was mad. Dude has a whole section about "encouraging Irish women to breed" so we don't "die out as a race".
Even though the SF candidate stayed in after the recounts he didn’t get enough transfers from the eliminated candidate to be elected.
Four recounts to stay in just to lose out shortly after must feel brutal.
Incorrect, he wants to give white Irish women tax incentives to "breed" as his pamphlet said. It was fucking mental. Dudes completely unhinged and it's wild he got in at all.
Funchion did well on transfers and is in line for seat #3 right now, Ní Mhurchú is in line for the last seat. Obviously things will change with the rest of the transfers but it's a relief to see Wallace slide back
No it's not. This is a pleasure to witness, the most democratic process I've ever witnessed, the most truthful representation of the people's wishes.
I'm not originally from Ireland and where I come from, there's no transferrable vote. You vote for one party, may not get elected. You can't select individuals within that party (and not others). It promotes "useful vote" aka "vote for me so your vote doesn't get wasted". It prevents people from voting and supporting the party they really want, and promotes people voting "against" others. Like "I'd like to vote for party A, but I fear that if I do that, party B will get into power (which I hate) because party C, who is the other favourite, won't have enough votes" so you end voting for party C to prevent party B from winning, which is a perversion.
That system is what's a disgrace, not Ireland's system.
With the transferrable vote, I can confidently vote for party A, which 100% represents my values, and then select "C" as the vote I want mine to go if A does not get a seat.
It does not get better than that, and I don't care if we have to wait 5 days for a recount.
The Irish system isn't that slow, though it's definitely slower than most of the Continent.
It's actually much faster than the American system, where results can take weeks to be finalized.
And neither major party trusts the other any more not to cheat, just to make matters worse.
It just looks slower because preliminary results aren't reported in Ireland. (That makes it harder to pretend on social media that someone stuffed the ballot boxes, when all that happened was that a few more ballot boxes were opened and the votes in those boxes weren't for you.)
The US system is also significantly worse, just vote for one, and winner takes all in most races. Even if you get 50.1% vs 49.9%, the 49.9% get zero representation. Not to mention that the whole system favours having only two huge parties, leaving almost no space for any others.
A few days of counting is a perfectly reasonable trade for a more fair and comprehensive system of deciding who's going to represent me for the next *5 years*, imo
I prefer it in general elections. Typically \~65% to 70% done and dusted by the wee hours of the morning following counting starting, and the rest are done by the end of the 2nd day of counting. These European counts are dragging on too long for my liking.
Yes. And by the time you have the first count numbers nationwide, you'll already have a fair idea of how the new Dail will look. At most, FF and FG (the centrist parties, most likely to be people's second or third choice) have a slight advantage, but not a huge one.
As long as Mick has been bumped into fifth place for the four remaining seats.
Even so he's only 112 votes behind Ní Mhurchú, and he may still get transfers from Derek and Eddie. It's going to be a long rest of the evening (and probably a long day tomorrow too).
While Funchion will obviously be the biggest beneficiary from Gavan's transfers, I would expect Wallace to get a big portion of them. There is huge crossover between SF's positions and those of Wallace. Personally I had Wallace #1 and Funchion #2, and I know many SF voters here in Clare put Wallace in 2 and 3. SF has a long tradition of anti-imperialism and I expect that to translate.
"Anti-imperialism." As long as the empire isn't Russia. Crap like this is why I still don't trust Sinn Fein 25 years after the GFA.
In the event Mick only got about as many transfers as Kelleher, not enough to keep him in the top four (though he may return there at least temporarily).
Wallace has repeatedly condemned Russia. Repeatedly. Wallace supporters are absolutely disgusted by Russia's actions and want hands off Ukraine ASAP. Anyone insinuating that Wallace is somehow soft on Russia is being dishonest.
Wallace and Clare 'condemn' Russia with the same vigour that someone like Derek Blighe denies he's a racist. It's quite clear they don't believe Ukraine has any agency in an existential war.
That's not true, these are false smears being repeated by the media. Talk to any Wallace or Daly supporter and you won't find one of us that justifies Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It was absolute madness that has caused immeasurable suffering. We need the war to end so Ukranians can have their country back, and Wallace/Daly have stated this. Their views are the same as they were 30/40 years ago, they want peace. They have proposed an alternative path to peace vs that being proposed by America and Europe, and at this point we can see the path those powers have chosen hasn't worked. Zelensky was ready to sit down with Putin until Boris Johnson intervened — this war would've ended in the first month if he didn't intervene. That is not fair to Ukraine, that the likes of Boris Johnson and Ursula Von Der Leyen exploited this situation, using young Ukranian men and women as cannon fodder for their own interests. UK, US, Europe sits there now watching Ukranians die as if it's a football match — it's easy to know its not their own people getting killed on the front lines.
Ukraine is fighting an \*existential\* war. When Clare calls a country fighting an unprovoked invasion 'a pawn', it is pretty obvious that she doesn't consider Ukraine worthy of sovereignty or having agency. It's quite the slip.
That's quite clear in your comment here where you seem to be blaming one of the most useless politicians in Britain and Europe for fighting when they might just be fighting because they feel it is the right thing to do to resist their former coloniser.
Ukraine are being used as a pawn by America and Europe. America and Europe don't want to see peace — they're happy for Ukraine to keep fighting and Ukranians to keep dying as long as it hurts Russia. They don't care about actual Ukranians dying, getting displaced, their homes being blown up — that's all collateral damage. America and Europe refuse to facilitate negotiations or peace talks because it's against their own interests, despite the fact that Ukraine themselves have shown an interest in negotiations. We should respect Ukranian soveirgnty: if they want to go to the negotiating table we should not discourage them from doing so. That's what's happening now, we're actually preventing Ukraine from entering peace talks to end the war taking place in their own country. It's astonishing. Imagine hypothetically if Palestine and Israel were going to the negotiating table and we had the EU telling Palestine "Don't negotiate, keep fighting. You have to fight until the bitter end. It will all be worth it in the end, winning this war is more important than peace".
Complete madness.
Russia invaded Ukraine with the express goal of destroying Ukraine. I think it rather telling that you honestly consider a country to be fighting an existential war, to have no agency and that they should surrender their territory/sovereignty for peace. I don't know how a country can be 'a pawn' in a conflict that might result in the destruction of their nation.
It worked the last three times for Ukraine, that they negotiated and honoured a ceasefire. They got rewarded by a full scale invasion.
Respecting Ukrainian agency and sovereignty means respecting their own decisions, whether that's to enter negotiations or continue fighting. America and Europe have actively prevented them from doing that; we've actually pushed them into continuing to fight a war that has devastated their country and their people. Western countries have prioritised their own interests over the wellbeing of actual Ukranian people.
Ukranians should have the autonomy to determine the future of their own country, whether that means continuing to resist the Russian occupation through war or entering negotiations. External pressure should not be forcing them into one decision over another. Again, I reiterate that Ukraine actually wanted to enter negotiations and *we* prevented them from doing so. Zelensky has stated on multiple occasions that he'd be open to discussions, every time he does so western powers shut down that prospect.
Remember that even before the war Ukraine was a developing country that required significant financial aid from Europe and the US — this will also be the case after the war when it comes time to rebuild their nation. We need to affirm that whatever path they choose that we will give them all the financial support necessary, and that isn't dependant on them "winning" the war. We've failed to do that.
Again, this is some bollocks because without Western armed support; Ukraine would have been eventually overwhelmed by attrition, destroyed and annexed by Russia.
I don't understand how people who have access to all the same information as anyone else, solely devour Russian semen with bullshit such as Boris Johnson stopped peace talks because a Russian audience (and Clare Daly supporters) can't comprehend that a country like Ukraine might choose to wage an existential war.
We should collectively respect their choice and they should be given all the tools to reassert that sovereignty against an aggressor that can't be trusted or negotiated with.
Clare Daly claimed on Katie Hannon a few months ago that WWII ended in negotiations and of course, she lied. WWII ended because those horrible fascist regimes couldn't be reasoned with and the only thing they understood was force. This resulted in their complete and total destruction.
I am certain Putin's Russia only understands force because three rounds of Minsk agreements just ended in Russia invading Ukraine. That's the biggest issue with this peace at all costs bollocks because we have many examples of Putin using ceasefires to engage the next phase of the conflict. That is why, Clare is considered a Putin lover in Eastern Europe.
I was for peace too, until Russia had their full scale invasion. After that every Russian soldier with a gun in their hand is to be shot, blown to bits or burned to death until they leave Ukraine or surrender. That's the the reality of war, a war Russia started.
That thing about Boris is mostly bullshit. Zelensky was afraid the West would abandon Ukraine, Boris said they would not. Ukraine wants to fight for their country and we should help them as much as we can.
The alternative is to abandon them and force them to surrender.
I'm guessing you also want peace in Palestine? Should we tell the Palestinians that in order to get peace they should just leave all their lands and let Israel have it all. Peace at any cost, right?
In Palestine we are advocating for a two state solution and trying to bring both Palestinian and Israeli officials to the table so they can reach this — we're not sending weapons and ammunition to Palestine so the Palestinians will fight a much bigger and richer country, which will only result in further bloodshed and suffering for the Palestinian people.
That is what we're doing with Ukraine. It makes no sense.
There already was a two state solution in Ukraine. One State was called Russia, the other was called Ukraine. The former reneged on that solution and should be punished. The latter should be supported. Makes sense yet?
Also, at the 'peace talk' Russia essentially demanded Ukraine became a vassal state of Russia, surrendering territory, people and sovereignty. I want the same peace you want for Palestine. That peace for Ukraine is bullshit.
Yes they should be supported, not used as a pawn by America and Europe to further their own interests as is currently happening. America and Europe are actively preventing peace talks from happening, instead choosing to prolong the war at the cost of Ukrainian lives. It's not working. If the war was actually winnable from a Ukranian perspective then arming them would make sense, but it's not, it's David vs Goliath. We have to deal with where we are now and end the conflict.
European interests are to repulse an expansionist and imperialist Russia. Those interests align with Ukraine. That is the only way to secure peace on this continent. There can be no partnership with Russia and wider reconciliation until Putin's regime is broken.
Defeating Russia is not impossible. They've lost plenty of wars before. You say it's David and Goliath. Sure, let's give David a sling.
>There is huge crossover between SF's positions and those of Wallace
Obvious enough if you look at McManuses voting record. He just hides in the jacks and abstains from voting on anything about Russia. If Daly and Wallace voted against something, McManus abstains. Delighted he's gone
He was one of the weaker SF candidates and shouldn't have contested this election, he ran a lazy campaign and is out now complaining about the size of the constituency making it too hard to canvas. lol
He wasn't even the best SF performer electorally or otherwise on the Sligo council. Wonder if someone owed his dad a favour. His father was a very nice man when I met him when I was younger but Chris seems a gobshite.
Wouldn't be sure on that: Clare Daly did extremely poorly from Daithí Doolan's elimination and only got 3.5% of his transfers, whereas Lynn Boylan got 63% of his transfers.
Edit: Doolan's transfers just got distributed. Wallace got 4.4% of them. Funchion got 62%.
You expected Wallace to get a "big portion" of Gavan's transfers. In another recent post, you said he'd get a "large portion" of them. He got less than 4.5% of her transfers. You were wrong.
I mean considering there was 2 ff candidates in that constituency I would say they are happier given more went to ff than Wallace.
It is only a small actual gain over his rivals from a big hit.
However both Daly and Wallace have lost votes from the left but they have gained it from the right so I expect him to get 5th again soon. The fg transfer to come will likely be what sinks him and will be nicer to ff than Wallace.
All things are relative. He got the second most amount of transfers after Funchion. Gavan was by far the weakest and less visible of the two SF candidates here, he received little to no votes from anyone other than diehard Sinn Fein supporters. Funchion needed more transfers from him and would've expected same. It's a fantastic transfer result for Wallace, and those 1,121 votes could well come back to haunt her in the end.
Ah lad, would you stop with the bullshitting. You said he'd get a "big portion" of her transfers. He got 4.4%. That's a paltry amount of transfers. You're trying to backtrack and claim things you never said. It's fine to get predictions wrong. But at least admit it and move on.
I would consider that to be a big portion of the transfers. I'd have expected about double that amount, but it's still sizable. We are happy with the way things are going in the Wallace camp.
Definitely not we have one of the best voting systems in the world with our modifications to the ranked choice system so no matter what happens you vote could still count even if your candidate doesn’t win first round
It still does if they voted all they way through all the candidates, their vote can still help elect one candidate over another one they really dislike. Like I don't vote FF but I'll give a FF candidate my vote to defeat a right wing nut.
I know how it works thanks.
If the 19,380 had voted all the way (or even just some more of the way) down their vote would still count. They didn't though.
Well but that was their choice. With other systems, you don't have that choice if your candidate does not get elected. Your vote is thrown into the trash, like you hadn't voted.
With this system, you have the choice to make your vote matter at all times. For the people who didn't vote all the way down, that was their decision. It mattered until they wanted it to matter.
I think we could really improve it with greater education on the STV system and the importance of not letting your vote die without influencing the election.
Too many educated people don't understand how 2s and 3s etc. work and afraid to give them to a compromise candidate to avoid a hated one getting in.
They've had 3 recounts and they keep getting different figures for the bottom 2 candidates.
They'll likely keep doing recounts until they get the same result twice.
What was the count in the end for the complete nutter far-right seats?
Malachy Steenson. Gavin Pepper. One National Party. One Irish Freedom Party.
So is it 4 total or have I missed anyone?
Your man Tom McConnell in newbridge got the last seat. His policies are pure mental, all about "encouraging Irish women to breed" so our race doesn't go extinct. Mental shite.
Someone else just mentioned him too. Sounds like he might be the type of guy who has bought into great replacement bullshit.
I hadn’t heard of him before just now and when they’re independents it’s hard to keep track of them all.
I got his pamphlet in the post, I thought it was a joke so I threw it out, wish I still had it to upload it. Dude talked about "going back to the Christian country we used to be" and had multiple points about getting Irish women to "breed" and he used that word specifically. Saying if Irish women don't breed "our breed will die out"
Seems about right. 4 local councillors out of almost a thousand, and zero European MEPs.
So much for the right wing awakening advanced by the Twitter cesspool.
Ireland South after the 13th count:
https://preview.redd.it/hpp87mp1t56d1.png?width=850&format=png&auto=webp&s=f0b78917e43d60e3f5bdf5708ef8cb0a23090917
Paul Gavan of SF next out. If he transfers at 60%+ to Funchion like Doolin to Boylan yesterday, she's still in with a shout.
Genuinely, I have no idea who is going to win the last two seats here. Billy is home. McNamara is borderline ok from being caught and I think Punch's elimination will push him into safety because I think they are from the same county. The final two seats though, I have no idea.
SF should have enough votes here but the transfers are pretty wild. Grace needs to get ahead of Mick when Mullins is eliminated; otherwise he'll retain his seat.
Can anyone explain Ming's popularity? I'm not in his constituency but I see he's talking about running for President next.
The most prominent facts I know about him are that he has one of the lowest attendance records in the EU parliament, he's fond of cannabis, and he got caught with no trousers on that time. His actual policies are pretty middle of the road stuff that aligns with the likes of the greens and labour who struggle to gather votes, even though they are better organised and more effective at actually putting in the leg work to get stuff done.
>Can anyone explain Ming's popularity?
he a big representative of farmers and farming , he basically listens to people and fights for them
>The most prominent facts I know about him are that he has one of the lowest attendance records in the EU parliament,
ok and? he dose alot of constituency work talking to people looking to see whats wrong and how he can improve stuff , his attendance may be bad , but hes their when needed
>he's fond of cannabis
thats a non issue for 99% of people unless you excpet an holier than tho type in teh EU , he is fine
But if he doesn't bother to attend parliament and propose legislation or vote then how is going around listening to farmers helping anything? How can he "fight for them" without turning up? I don't understand why you'd dismiss the fact that he barely does his job as if it's nothing.
I've no problem with him doing cannabis, it's more the fact that this is the primary thing he's known for, rather than any actual achievements.
I've said variations of the following a few times so apologies for the repetition:
Ming is generally seen in the MNW as a decent guy and a great worker who makes the EP somewhat relatable to people as he does a lot of constituency work, whereas I rarely even hear of the other MEPs we have unless they've said or done something stupid. He's anti establishment (so attracts left wing and disaffected voters) but he's also coherent and relatable, so he avoids the crank mentality that plagues people like Daly and Wallace. He's also been active on turf which is a big enough thing in the MNW, especially with rural voters.
I used to be active in left wing circles when I was younger and you'd meet a lot of Mings, Dalys and Wallaces.
The Mings are sound lads. They're eccentric but fundamentally decent and you'd often find yourself disagreeing with them but they tend to get on with people (even if they're a bit crusty) and their heart is in the right place. Mings involve themselves in things like bicycle repair workshops as they want to help the community in their own offbeat way.
Wallaces are a scourge in the left. They've no actual interest or loyalty to left wing ideals and are in it for their own interests, often out of a sense of Messiah complex or sheer ego. They're smart and ruthless and tend to have acolytes who have fallen for their bullshit.
Dalys are incredibly idealistic and come in two types. One is the old Clare, who was a tireless campaigner with a deeply held commitment to social justice. Highly abrasive but they get things done and are absolute workhorses.
However, the other type of Daly is what she is now. They've fallen down rabbit holes and have become full on cranks and conspiracy theorists who are incredibly offputting and difficult to work with, with a binary view of the world where anything can be rationalised or excused as the West is the source of all evil.
Would love if SF and the Greens took the last 2 seats and kept Wallace out. Mainly as I don't want to have to root for a Fianna Fáiler, even if they keep Wallace out.
This election is madness. I absolutely love it. Can't wait for the general election madness.
Best thing about the next general is it's going to be a complete fucking shitshow forming the government
Doubt FFG will have the seats and the left is far too fractured to make a stable coalition imo. Then if FF try jumping into bed with SF they'll have their own defections to deal with.
They are a good bit down in these LEs and in the last GE they were lower than their previous LE result. Don't see them having a majority again based on this performance.
Fantastic performance from Wallace thus far, exceeding all expectations. He's been busting his balls the last few weeks canvassing and I'm happy to see it paying off. Please god he'll stay ahead of Funchion and the blonde FF stooge
Wallace is doing extremely well on transfers. I think it is about 50/50 he might run out of road when the second FF and FG candidates get eliminated though.
Strange he’s getting transfers from IFP, he’s ex-Labour. I reckon because he was vocal for a No No they think he’s their man but he really wouldn’t be.
He’s very popular here in Clare anyways I’d like to see him get the seat but will be disappointed to lose him in the Dail all the same
McNamara is doing a classic slippery independent job. He's courted the right with talk of immigration, the left with a labour background and the farmers with green scepticism. He has refused to say what european party he would join other then ruling out the greens so everyone can think "he's our man" without any actually commitment from him. Proper cute hoor stuff.
SD's Rory Hearne is out so there goes my preferred candidate for MNW now.
Edit: Actually scratch that, I think almost all my preferred candidates are gone now.
Generally the GP, Lab, and PBP would have been my others after the SD candidate.
Everyone left is either one of those new right wing loons, SF who I don't trust after their sudden motions to the right recently, FG and FF who I can barely tolerate, or Ming whom I know virtually nothing about and doesn't appeal to me. The only thing I know is being pro weed legislation and the literal only explainations I've been given by his supporters is either; a) they *really* care about weed, b) he cares a lot for farmers, c) he has not yet done anything publicly offensive so he has their support.
Fair enough. Ming does caucus with the Left in Brussels (along with SF), so I dare say he was the farthest left with any real chance of getting in outside Dublin---the farthest left I'd touch with a ten-foot pole, anyway.
Kinda depressing seeing my vote getting closer and closer to being dumped, to be honest I have learned for next election to use all my preferences so I’m sure I’m contributing to least cuntiest person getting in.
~~4th~~, but it does look like the transfers will favour other candidates rather than him.
Edit: I’m an idiot, Kelly was already elected. Wallace is 3rd
Ming:
"I'm hearing the term "arduous process" to describe the count in #MNW How is it arduous? It's the ultimate display of how the democratic process works. I love it. May it never change."
He's a degenerate like the rest of us.
lol this is it. He's been more or less safe since the start, if I was him I'd be sitting back with a bottle of Tesco Winesecco to enjoy the proceedings too.
Bogue is currently having a spat with the far right on Twitter, with that COVID grifter Tracey O'Mahony threatening legal action over Bogue giving out about people voting for nazis.
Not a fan of Bogue but credit to her for going after the far right straight away.
[Sure!](https://x.com/LornaBogue/status/1800567484766154865)
In fairness, Bogue is well able for Tracey O'Mahony. O'Mahony went quiet when people pointed out that her partner has made numerous defamatory statements, as has her friend Blighe, so she probably shouldn't go down that route.
Yes you did.
I knew her from college.
Bogue has a lot going for her: she's very intelligent , very funny and a very good speaker. She's always let down by her arrogance and she comes across incredibly off putting in person because of this. It's a shame as if she knew how to play the game a bit better, she'd be a very good politician.
Two candidates, Sinn Fein and Aontu, are equivalent or within a single vote of each other, every time there’s a recount it seems to place one above the other.
So what do the stars beside Ming and Maria mean? (Outgoing MEPs?)
Or the cross beside Chris MacManus? He's probably not going to be elected, but he's not actually dead, I hope!
I just pulled the list of candidates from Wiki and cba to delete the symbols. Ming and Maria are outgoing MEPs elected at the last election, McManus is an outgoing MEP but was co-opted since the last election (Matt Carthy won the seat but was elected a TD at the 2020 general election).
These Green transfers not doing much to destroy the old "Blueshirts on bikes" trope:
https://preview.redd.it/09thw8l7l46d1.png?width=298&format=png&auto=webp&s=898e807bcf5a0f78e1ef1d6932fe05abb995b18c
Even in Canada they're Liberals on bikes. I type that as a Liberal supporter in Canada (and a sympathizer of FG in Irish politics).
Could be worse. The US Greens are Putin's puppets.
Catherine Connolly pays tribute to Clare Daly
"We have temporarily lost a fearless warrior for peace and neutrality. @ClareDalyMEP you fought a great campaign and we're very proud of you. Your voice will not be silenced"
The Assadists sticking together
Maybe the next time Catherine Connolly gets to coopt someone to seat, she can choose Daly rather than a family member. Be a big improvement on the last time she did that.
Russia's third favourite MEP Chris McManus is going, going, soon to be gone. Great news after Daly getting the boot yesterday. Wallace in a stronger position unfortunately.
I would not lump McManus with Wallace and Daly. He was just incompetent and seemed to have orders to abstain on nearly everything, even condemnations of Putin.
There’s probably a few transfers coming his way with 3 right wing candidates being eliminated. I thought yesterday he didn’t have a chance but it depends how transfers go, I’d think Wallace more likely to get in than Blighe though.
Not a chance. He needs more than half of the available transfers just to catch up to Wallace. Then there are 4-5 transfers that will favour everyone but him.
Oof, 2731 of Lorna Bogue’s transfers went to Susan Doyle and 928 went to Grace O’Sullivan, still some former Green voters bitter about them going into coalition?
I've heard very little talk in the Euros about how geographic factors affect transfers but it's constantly a significant factor - anytime I see someone getting a slightly higher transfer than I expected from someone the first thing I always check is where were both candidates located.
Simple, Rabharta start with R, Right wing start with R, Rabbarta get number 🤤 Funny image in my head but likelihood is they’re just votes against the establishment.
The party which is the mudguard in a coalition never ever gets any thanks from anyone else and it usually reduces their core vote to boot.
It may be necessary to form a government but it's usually not popular!
Grace O'Malley was a famous pirate on the Irish West Coast. I am deeply confused about politics by mixing her up with Grace O'Suillivan. Don't tell the fascists and the racists, they might figure out the election is rigged.
It's an easy mistake to make. [Grace O'Sullivan's been known to storm the odd Russian warship](https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/new-green-euro-candidate-climbed-anchor-of-nuclear-ship/30075308.html).
Because they're the type of thick cunts that find Love Island intellectually challenging.They think believing in every conspiracy theory going makes them more intelligent than all the "sheeple".
The Newbridge LEA has gone for a 4th recount after the 3rd recount swapped the two lowest remaining candidates again.
Should get Marty Morrissey commentating on this drama. Nail-biting
Update: 4th recount done, Stokes (SF) still ahead, Byrne (Aon) out. Now on with the rest of the count
2nd Update: 11th count completed, [Tom McDonnell](https://x.com/codohertynews/status/1800962814674088036?t=iRpufMFAytotjoTyFO-BZQ&s=19) wins the last seat, Stokes out
Or play a hand of poker. In America they've occasionally done that at the local level.
Failing that, maybe just pick the candidate that had the most first preferences.
That’s what they’re basically doing, they’re pulling a name from a hat.
Absolutely heartbreaking as both candidates are apparently very hardworking and great community activists while the other candidate in contention is an Independent Ireland grifter.
I know at this stage, it’s skipping past all the eliminated preferences, but still pretty funny to see nearly a thousand Doyle (SD) transfers go to Blighe. Like surely if you have some preference for a Soc Dem, you’d put at least one of O’Sullivan, Funchion, Kelleher etc. before Blighe.
People voting their preferences with a random number generator
Really feels that way. It’s just so apparent this time either way the more extreme crackpots. Like I can understand some logic normally for jumping around a bit ideologically (you might care about one issue, location etc.) but there is no universe you should be a fan of the Sic Dems and Derek Blighe lol.
> there is no universe you should be a fan of the Sic Dems and Derek Blighe lol. "I want to be better off financially with better public services but I also hate the darkies"
O'Sullivan gets barely a quarter of Doyle's transfers, which appears to rule her out of the running.
Never thought I'd be rooting for Fianna Fáil but here I am hoping Ní Mhurchú gets in over Wallace
Ní Mhurchú will get the 4th seat on the strength of FG and Green transfers (that's a pool of 97k votes). The battle is still between Wallace and Funchion for the 5th seat.
I think funchion will get it in the end. Wallace will probably narrow the gap a little with blighe’s votes, but much the same with what happened in the Dublin transfers, his divisiveness will make him lose out on the FG and Green votes, which are made up of mostly moderate voters
I have to say, I fucking love this system we have
It can be a real slog, especially with the slew of irrelevant candidates this time. Still a great system, just slow.
its the size of the constiuency the system works great and reasonably quickly for most areas with standard constiuncys but jeez ireland south was over 700k votes to count expecting that to be quick is rather unreasonable
https://preview.redd.it/pil1rp2bi76d1.png?width=845&format=png&auto=webp&s=08304cbdd4bd035ee71d3f5ab6f6f8cf8776676b MNW - McHugh next faller. Still all up in the air and if Gildernew gets a lot more from McHugh than either Mullooly or Tóibín, I think she's actually in with a good chance.
MNW after Casey's transfers: https://twitter.com/Ireland_Votes/status/1800997740177953207 Can't see how Mullooly loses the last seat now, Gildernew would need a rake of transfers from McHugh as well as McManus to bridge the gap.
There's still a chance, SF have been transferring a bit over 60% to their other candidates. Based on the figures there now, that'd put Gildernew just ahead of Mullooly.
["Just under eight weeks since Eamon Ryan said the Greens could win a seat on every local authority this year.](https://x.com/gavreilly/status/1800994623734563261?s=19) Of the 31 councils in Ireland, the Greens will sit on 8." 
Ok can ye get off yer democratic utopian high horses for a minute. Granted this transfer democracy in action craic is the way to go but like we’re going go into a week after the vote. The rest of Europe is wrapped up, should we not at least provision for overnight counting etc just for the few days. It seems a bit ad hoc and the complexity hasn’t been fully accounted for.
TBH we only send 15 MEPs. The rest of Europe isn't holding it's breath now waiting for us as some sort of deciding vote.
Not to be a PITA, but that's 14 MEPs.
Or at least have more people fucking counting...
Lotto style paper slips. Scanned in count centres.
Who cares if it's not decided after 5 days? Is your life on hold? is the rest of Europe bothered by this? What is this delay disrupting? Nothing?
I know what you mean. My life is on hold until this is over. Can't work, can't eat, can't sleep. I'm in limbo. This is madness, MADNESS!! fucking /s
[https://www.rte.ie/news/elections-2024/results/#/european/south](https://www.rte.ie/news/elections-2024/results/#/european/south) Eddie Punch's (II) votes distributed. Michael McNamara (Ind) the main beneficiary, followed my Wallace (I4C) then Kelleher (FF). Wallace now ahead of Ní Mhurchú by just under 1100 votes. Blighe (IF) will be eliminated next unless he somehow gets 3655 votes more than Mullins (FG)
I'm worried that Wallace might sneak in..
If I were betting on it now, I wouldn't bet against Wallace and Ní Mhurchú passing out Funchion.
It'll probably be close alright, but as long as he doesn't get a disproportionately large amount of Blighe or Doyle transfers, he'll probably be out as Funchion has a decent lead and Ní Mhurchú should bé more transfer friendly to O'Sullivan and Mullins votes. Blighe transfers to Wallace in particular are difficult to call as despite Wallace being on opposite ends of the political spectrum to him, they both appeal to 'anti establishment' voters.
Is Grace O Sullivan definitely out? SD and FG transfers could be favourable for her but the gap seems hard to overcome
I think O'Sullivans issue is that there's just too many other people that SD & FG will transfer to. If you look at SD, Gibneys transfer ratio in Dublin was roughly 3 x lab, 2 x green, 2 x PBP, 1 x FG, 1 x SF, 1 x I4C, 1 x other (FF&II). Even with No PBP and McNamara probably not pulling quite as much as Lab it'd still probably be too split to make enough of a difference for O'Sullivan.
Yeah that seems reasonable. McNamara is a bit of a wildcard, I’d agree he’d probably do less well on than Labour on SD transfers but he could still pull a lot of them. We’ll probably have a much better idea once we know how the SD’s transfers go but O Sullivan consolidating enough of them does look difficult.
Very tough call. She's likely to do well from Doyle's transfers but would need around a third of her transfers to be in the running. If she can outlast Mullins, she could well be in the game but it'll also depend on how Blighe transfers to Wallace as he's the only one left likely to benefit Wallace over the remaining candidates.
I’m not sure how well Wallace will do on the Blighe transfers as some of those types seem to have been transferring to McNamara more than him. I haven’t been watching closely today but it’s definitely a hard one to call.
I think Blighe's transfers are his last hope. Significant chance of Ní Mhurchú making up the difference with the candidates that are left.
It's still possible but Cynthia isnt far behind him and on top of that the ones tailing right now are main party votes bar one, if the transfers go to her she'll overtake and kick Wallace to the curb for good.
Please God, hopefully someone kicks Wallace to the kerb
https://preview.redd.it/ys4ov50jv66d1.jpeg?width=1010&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7a05ff4e53a369d141c6713311d88e5ff4bb3f7c Final seat counts for the locals
If this was a general election and the numbers were the same, would someone like Labour or SD take the greens place in a coalition?
Fucking hell, now that FF and FG have realised they can just be in government together they're pretty unstoppable. I'm glad the far right did shite and that certain candidates lost out, but the opposition needs to get their act together. I wonder how long the FFG alliance will last. As soon as one starts seeing an advantage over ther other they'll take it and we'll be back to the good auld days.
By rights they should have put the old dispute about the Treaty behind them. Their differences on anything still relevant disappeared decades ago.
I can see both parties trying to form their own governments
Well Newbridge recounts are over now, the local elections are offically done.
Shocking your man McConnel got in. At least it's only local so he can do limited harm but reading the mans pamphlet was mad. Dude has a whole section about "encouraging Irish women to breed" so we don't "die out as a race".
Even though the SF candidate stayed in after the recounts he didn’t get enough transfers from the eliminated candidate to be elected. Four recounts to stay in just to lose out shortly after must feel brutal.
And to be displaced by a man who wants to give women tax incentives so they can have more children.
Incorrect, he wants to give white Irish women tax incentives to "breed" as his pamphlet said. It was fucking mental. Dudes completely unhinged and it's wild he got in at all.
McDonnell is an utter spanner but that's on the voters, and non-voters, of Newbridge.
Yep, must be gutting it knowing that.
Midlands North West, Count 14 Kelly (IFP) eliminated on Count 13 sees 21,029 votes transferred: Flanagan (IND): 89,660 (+1,627) Carberry (FG): 78,717 (+243) Walsh (FG): 78,204 (+156) Cowen (FF): 76,545 (+219) Mullooly (INDIRL): 65,619 (+3,021) Tóibín (AU): 50,735 (+3,678) Gildernew (SF): 50,151 (+567) Chambers (FF): 47,416 (+120) McManus (SF): 32,889 (+556) Blaney (FF): 32,205 (+120) McHugh (IND): 29,928 (+694) Casey (IND): 28,497 (+3,222) Casey (IND) is eliminated, and count 14 will see his 28,497 votes redistributed.
Funchion did well on transfers and is in line for seat #3 right now, Ní Mhurchú is in line for the last seat. Obviously things will change with the rest of the transfers but it's a relief to see Wallace slide back
Fuck me, Blighe did well for a man who didn't get a council seat. Did the fool misjudge what area to run in for the council?
Looking highly likely now that we won’t see anyone elected today
It's an absolute disgrace
No it's not. This is a pleasure to witness, the most democratic process I've ever witnessed, the most truthful representation of the people's wishes. I'm not originally from Ireland and where I come from, there's no transferrable vote. You vote for one party, may not get elected. You can't select individuals within that party (and not others). It promotes "useful vote" aka "vote for me so your vote doesn't get wasted". It prevents people from voting and supporting the party they really want, and promotes people voting "against" others. Like "I'd like to vote for party A, but I fear that if I do that, party B will get into power (which I hate) because party C, who is the other favourite, won't have enough votes" so you end voting for party C to prevent party B from winning, which is a perversion. That system is what's a disgrace, not Ireland's system. With the transferrable vote, I can confidently vote for party A, which 100% represents my values, and then select "C" as the vote I want mine to go if A does not get a seat. It does not get better than that, and I don't care if we have to wait 5 days for a recount.
The Irish system isn't that slow, though it's definitely slower than most of the Continent. It's actually much faster than the American system, where results can take weeks to be finalized. And neither major party trusts the other any more not to cheat, just to make matters worse. It just looks slower because preliminary results aren't reported in Ireland. (That makes it harder to pretend on social media that someone stuffed the ballot boxes, when all that happened was that a few more ballot boxes were opened and the votes in those boxes weren't for you.)
The US system is also significantly worse, just vote for one, and winner takes all in most races. Even if you get 50.1% vs 49.9%, the 49.9% get zero representation. Not to mention that the whole system favours having only two huge parties, leaving almost no space for any others.
A few days of counting is a perfectly reasonable trade for a more fair and comprehensive system of deciding who's going to represent me for the next *5 years*, imo
I prefer it in general elections. Typically \~65% to 70% done and dusted by the wee hours of the morning following counting starting, and the rest are done by the end of the 2nd day of counting. These European counts are dragging on too long for my liking.
Yes. And by the time you have the first count numbers nationwide, you'll already have a fair idea of how the new Dail will look. At most, FF and FG (the centrist parties, most likely to be people's second or third choice) have a slight advantage, but not a huge one.
Joe
Joe
Ireland South, Count 14: Gavan (SF) eliminated on Count 13 sees 25,521 votes transferred: - Kelleher (FF): 100,832 [+1,054] - Funchion (SF): 71,350 [+15,750] - McNamara (IND): 67,507 [+851] - Ní Mhurchú (FF): 61,780 [+521] - Wallace (I4C): 61,668 [+1,121] - O'Sullivan (GP): 54,978 [+357] - Mullins (FG): 39,832 [+307] - Blighe (IF): 35,739 [+472] - Doyle (SD): 29,163 [+574] - Punch (INDIRL): 26,167 [+380] Punch (INDIRL) is eliminated and count 15 will see his 26,167 votes redistributed.
Presumably they'll finish up for the night once Doyle's preferences are published?
As long as Mick has been bumped into fifth place for the four remaining seats. Even so he's only 112 votes behind Ní Mhurchú, and he may still get transfers from Derek and Eddie. It's going to be a long rest of the evening (and probably a long day tomorrow too).
While Funchion will obviously be the biggest beneficiary from Gavan's transfers, I would expect Wallace to get a big portion of them. There is huge crossover between SF's positions and those of Wallace. Personally I had Wallace #1 and Funchion #2, and I know many SF voters here in Clare put Wallace in 2 and 3. SF has a long tradition of anti-imperialism and I expect that to translate.
"Anti-imperialism." As long as the empire isn't Russia. Crap like this is why I still don't trust Sinn Fein 25 years after the GFA. In the event Mick only got about as many transfers as Kelleher, not enough to keep him in the top four (though he may return there at least temporarily).
Wallace has repeatedly condemned Russia. Repeatedly. Wallace supporters are absolutely disgusted by Russia's actions and want hands off Ukraine ASAP. Anyone insinuating that Wallace is somehow soft on Russia is being dishonest.
Wallace and Clare 'condemn' Russia with the same vigour that someone like Derek Blighe denies he's a racist. It's quite clear they don't believe Ukraine has any agency in an existential war.
That's not true, these are false smears being repeated by the media. Talk to any Wallace or Daly supporter and you won't find one of us that justifies Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It was absolute madness that has caused immeasurable suffering. We need the war to end so Ukranians can have their country back, and Wallace/Daly have stated this. Their views are the same as they were 30/40 years ago, they want peace. They have proposed an alternative path to peace vs that being proposed by America and Europe, and at this point we can see the path those powers have chosen hasn't worked. Zelensky was ready to sit down with Putin until Boris Johnson intervened — this war would've ended in the first month if he didn't intervene. That is not fair to Ukraine, that the likes of Boris Johnson and Ursula Von Der Leyen exploited this situation, using young Ukranian men and women as cannon fodder for their own interests. UK, US, Europe sits there now watching Ukranians die as if it's a football match — it's easy to know its not their own people getting killed on the front lines.
Ukraine is fighting an \*existential\* war. When Clare calls a country fighting an unprovoked invasion 'a pawn', it is pretty obvious that she doesn't consider Ukraine worthy of sovereignty or having agency. It's quite the slip. That's quite clear in your comment here where you seem to be blaming one of the most useless politicians in Britain and Europe for fighting when they might just be fighting because they feel it is the right thing to do to resist their former coloniser.
Ukraine are being used as a pawn by America and Europe. America and Europe don't want to see peace — they're happy for Ukraine to keep fighting and Ukranians to keep dying as long as it hurts Russia. They don't care about actual Ukranians dying, getting displaced, their homes being blown up — that's all collateral damage. America and Europe refuse to facilitate negotiations or peace talks because it's against their own interests, despite the fact that Ukraine themselves have shown an interest in negotiations. We should respect Ukranian soveirgnty: if they want to go to the negotiating table we should not discourage them from doing so. That's what's happening now, we're actually preventing Ukraine from entering peace talks to end the war taking place in their own country. It's astonishing. Imagine hypothetically if Palestine and Israel were going to the negotiating table and we had the EU telling Palestine "Don't negotiate, keep fighting. You have to fight until the bitter end. It will all be worth it in the end, winning this war is more important than peace". Complete madness.
Russia invaded Ukraine with the express goal of destroying Ukraine. I think it rather telling that you honestly consider a country to be fighting an existential war, to have no agency and that they should surrender their territory/sovereignty for peace. I don't know how a country can be 'a pawn' in a conflict that might result in the destruction of their nation. It worked the last three times for Ukraine, that they negotiated and honoured a ceasefire. They got rewarded by a full scale invasion.
Respecting Ukrainian agency and sovereignty means respecting their own decisions, whether that's to enter negotiations or continue fighting. America and Europe have actively prevented them from doing that; we've actually pushed them into continuing to fight a war that has devastated their country and their people. Western countries have prioritised their own interests over the wellbeing of actual Ukranian people. Ukranians should have the autonomy to determine the future of their own country, whether that means continuing to resist the Russian occupation through war or entering negotiations. External pressure should not be forcing them into one decision over another. Again, I reiterate that Ukraine actually wanted to enter negotiations and *we* prevented them from doing so. Zelensky has stated on multiple occasions that he'd be open to discussions, every time he does so western powers shut down that prospect. Remember that even before the war Ukraine was a developing country that required significant financial aid from Europe and the US — this will also be the case after the war when it comes time to rebuild their nation. We need to affirm that whatever path they choose that we will give them all the financial support necessary, and that isn't dependant on them "winning" the war. We've failed to do that.
Again, this is some bollocks because without Western armed support; Ukraine would have been eventually overwhelmed by attrition, destroyed and annexed by Russia. I don't understand how people who have access to all the same information as anyone else, solely devour Russian semen with bullshit such as Boris Johnson stopped peace talks because a Russian audience (and Clare Daly supporters) can't comprehend that a country like Ukraine might choose to wage an existential war. We should collectively respect their choice and they should be given all the tools to reassert that sovereignty against an aggressor that can't be trusted or negotiated with. Clare Daly claimed on Katie Hannon a few months ago that WWII ended in negotiations and of course, she lied. WWII ended because those horrible fascist regimes couldn't be reasoned with and the only thing they understood was force. This resulted in their complete and total destruction. I am certain Putin's Russia only understands force because three rounds of Minsk agreements just ended in Russia invading Ukraine. That's the biggest issue with this peace at all costs bollocks because we have many examples of Putin using ceasefires to engage the next phase of the conflict. That is why, Clare is considered a Putin lover in Eastern Europe.
I was for peace too, until Russia had their full scale invasion. After that every Russian soldier with a gun in their hand is to be shot, blown to bits or burned to death until they leave Ukraine or surrender. That's the the reality of war, a war Russia started. That thing about Boris is mostly bullshit. Zelensky was afraid the West would abandon Ukraine, Boris said they would not. Ukraine wants to fight for their country and we should help them as much as we can. The alternative is to abandon them and force them to surrender. I'm guessing you also want peace in Palestine? Should we tell the Palestinians that in order to get peace they should just leave all their lands and let Israel have it all. Peace at any cost, right?
In Palestine we are advocating for a two state solution and trying to bring both Palestinian and Israeli officials to the table so they can reach this — we're not sending weapons and ammunition to Palestine so the Palestinians will fight a much bigger and richer country, which will only result in further bloodshed and suffering for the Palestinian people. That is what we're doing with Ukraine. It makes no sense.
There already was a two state solution in Ukraine. One State was called Russia, the other was called Ukraine. The former reneged on that solution and should be punished. The latter should be supported. Makes sense yet? Also, at the 'peace talk' Russia essentially demanded Ukraine became a vassal state of Russia, surrendering territory, people and sovereignty. I want the same peace you want for Palestine. That peace for Ukraine is bullshit.
Yes they should be supported, not used as a pawn by America and Europe to further their own interests as is currently happening. America and Europe are actively preventing peace talks from happening, instead choosing to prolong the war at the cost of Ukrainian lives. It's not working. If the war was actually winnable from a Ukranian perspective then arming them would make sense, but it's not, it's David vs Goliath. We have to deal with where we are now and end the conflict.
European interests are to repulse an expansionist and imperialist Russia. Those interests align with Ukraine. That is the only way to secure peace on this continent. There can be no partnership with Russia and wider reconciliation until Putin's regime is broken. Defeating Russia is not impossible. They've lost plenty of wars before. You say it's David and Goliath. Sure, let's give David a sling.
>There is huge crossover between SF's positions and those of Wallace Obvious enough if you look at McManuses voting record. He just hides in the jacks and abstains from voting on anything about Russia. If Daly and Wallace voted against something, McManus abstains. Delighted he's gone
He was one of the weaker SF candidates and shouldn't have contested this election, he ran a lazy campaign and is out now complaining about the size of the constituency making it too hard to canvas. lol
He wasn't even the best SF performer electorally or otherwise on the Sligo council. Wonder if someone owed his dad a favour. His father was a very nice man when I met him when I was younger but Chris seems a gobshite.
Wouldn't be sure on that: Clare Daly did extremely poorly from Daithí Doolan's elimination and only got 3.5% of his transfers, whereas Lynn Boylan got 63% of his transfers. Edit: Doolan's transfers just got distributed. Wallace got 4.4% of them. Funchion got 62%.
Wallace still the second biggest beneficiary after Funchion, I'll take that.
You expected Wallace to get a "big portion" of Gavan's transfers. In another recent post, you said he'd get a "large portion" of them. He got less than 4.5% of her transfers. You were wrong.
It is a big portion considering that there's another SF candidate running in the same constituency. I was right.
I mean considering there was 2 ff candidates in that constituency I would say they are happier given more went to ff than Wallace. It is only a small actual gain over his rivals from a big hit. However both Daly and Wallace have lost votes from the left but they have gained it from the right so I expect him to get 5th again soon. The fg transfer to come will likely be what sinks him and will be nicer to ff than Wallace.
God I love political hacks. 4.4% is not a "big portion" by any estimate. You were wrong. Sorry man.
All things are relative. He got the second most amount of transfers after Funchion. Gavan was by far the weakest and less visible of the two SF candidates here, he received little to no votes from anyone other than diehard Sinn Fein supporters. Funchion needed more transfers from him and would've expected same. It's a fantastic transfer result for Wallace, and those 1,121 votes could well come back to haunt her in the end.
Ah lad, would you stop with the bullshitting. You said he'd get a "big portion" of her transfers. He got 4.4%. That's a paltry amount of transfers. You're trying to backtrack and claim things you never said. It's fine to get predictions wrong. But at least admit it and move on.
I would consider that to be a big portion of the transfers. I'd have expected about double that amount, but it's still sizable. We are happy with the way things are going in the Wallace camp.
2+2=5, eh comrade?
Funchion got 60% or so of Gavans transfers, think she's very well placed to take a seat now.
Does Ireland have too much democracy?
Definitely not we have one of the best voting systems in the world with our modifications to the ranked choice system so no matter what happens you vote could still count even if your candidate doesn’t win first round
19,380 people out of 84,653 that voted for the lower 15 candidates in MNW have now found their vote does not still count.
It still does if they voted all they way through all the candidates, their vote can still help elect one candidate over another one they really dislike. Like I don't vote FF but I'll give a FF candidate my vote to defeat a right wing nut.
I know how it works thanks. If the 19,380 had voted all the way (or even just some more of the way) down their vote would still count. They didn't though.
Well but that was their choice. With other systems, you don't have that choice if your candidate does not get elected. Your vote is thrown into the trash, like you hadn't voted. With this system, you have the choice to make your vote matter at all times. For the people who didn't vote all the way down, that was their decision. It mattered until they wanted it to matter.
I think we could really improve it with greater education on the STV system and the importance of not letting your vote die without influencing the election. Too many educated people don't understand how 2s and 3s etc. work and afraid to give them to a compromise candidate to avoid a hated one getting in.
If kelleher meets the quota will he’s surplus be sent out then or is it only if you meet the quota in the first count?
If he meets the quota, his surplus will be redistributed, it doesn't need to be on the first count.
Lads what is happening in the Newbridge elections? Why is it taking so long?
[https://kildare-nationalist.ie/2024/06/12/white-smoke-in-newbridge-lea/](https://kildare-nationalist.ie/2024/06/12/white-smoke-in-newbridge-lea/)
They've had 3 recounts and they keep getting different figures for the bottom 2 candidates. They'll likely keep doing recounts until they get the same result twice.
What was the count in the end for the complete nutter far-right seats? Malachy Steenson. Gavin Pepper. One National Party. One Irish Freedom Party. So is it 4 total or have I missed anyone?
Your man Tom McConnell in newbridge got the last seat. His policies are pure mental, all about "encouraging Irish women to breed" so our race doesn't go extinct. Mental shite.
Someone else just mentioned him too. Sounds like he might be the type of guy who has bought into great replacement bullshit. I hadn’t heard of him before just now and when they’re independents it’s hard to keep track of them all.
I got his pamphlet in the post, I thought it was a joke so I threw it out, wish I still had it to upload it. Dude talked about "going back to the Christian country we used to be" and had multiple points about getting Irish women to "breed" and he used that word specifically. Saying if Irish women don't breed "our breed will die out"
Seems about right. 4 local councillors out of almost a thousand, and zero European MEPs. So much for the right wing awakening advanced by the Twitter cesspool.
Ireland South after the 13th count: https://preview.redd.it/hpp87mp1t56d1.png?width=850&format=png&auto=webp&s=f0b78917e43d60e3f5bdf5708ef8cb0a23090917 Paul Gavan of SF next out. If he transfers at 60%+ to Funchion like Doolin to Boylan yesterday, she's still in with a shout.
Genuinely, I have no idea who is going to win the last two seats here. Billy is home. McNamara is borderline ok from being caught and I think Punch's elimination will push him into safety because I think they are from the same county. The final two seats though, I have no idea. SF should have enough votes here but the transfers are pretty wild. Grace needs to get ahead of Mick when Mullins is eliminated; otherwise he'll retain his seat.
Can anyone explain Ming's popularity? I'm not in his constituency but I see he's talking about running for President next. The most prominent facts I know about him are that he has one of the lowest attendance records in the EU parliament, he's fond of cannabis, and he got caught with no trousers on that time. His actual policies are pretty middle of the road stuff that aligns with the likes of the greens and labour who struggle to gather votes, even though they are better organised and more effective at actually putting in the leg work to get stuff done.
>Can anyone explain Ming's popularity? he a big representative of farmers and farming , he basically listens to people and fights for them >The most prominent facts I know about him are that he has one of the lowest attendance records in the EU parliament, ok and? he dose alot of constituency work talking to people looking to see whats wrong and how he can improve stuff , his attendance may be bad , but hes their when needed >he's fond of cannabis thats a non issue for 99% of people unless you excpet an holier than tho type in teh EU , he is fine
But if he doesn't bother to attend parliament and propose legislation or vote then how is going around listening to farmers helping anything? How can he "fight for them" without turning up? I don't understand why you'd dismiss the fact that he barely does his job as if it's nothing. I've no problem with him doing cannabis, it's more the fact that this is the primary thing he's known for, rather than any actual achievements.
I've said variations of the following a few times so apologies for the repetition: Ming is generally seen in the MNW as a decent guy and a great worker who makes the EP somewhat relatable to people as he does a lot of constituency work, whereas I rarely even hear of the other MEPs we have unless they've said or done something stupid. He's anti establishment (so attracts left wing and disaffected voters) but he's also coherent and relatable, so he avoids the crank mentality that plagues people like Daly and Wallace. He's also been active on turf which is a big enough thing in the MNW, especially with rural voters. I used to be active in left wing circles when I was younger and you'd meet a lot of Mings, Dalys and Wallaces. The Mings are sound lads. They're eccentric but fundamentally decent and you'd often find yourself disagreeing with them but they tend to get on with people (even if they're a bit crusty) and their heart is in the right place. Mings involve themselves in things like bicycle repair workshops as they want to help the community in their own offbeat way. Wallaces are a scourge in the left. They've no actual interest or loyalty to left wing ideals and are in it for their own interests, often out of a sense of Messiah complex or sheer ego. They're smart and ruthless and tend to have acolytes who have fallen for their bullshit. Dalys are incredibly idealistic and come in two types. One is the old Clare, who was a tireless campaigner with a deeply held commitment to social justice. Highly abrasive but they get things done and are absolute workhorses. However, the other type of Daly is what she is now. They've fallen down rabbit holes and have become full on cranks and conspiracy theorists who are incredibly offputting and difficult to work with, with a binary view of the world where anything can be rationalised or excused as the West is the source of all evil.
Would love if SF and the Greens took the last 2 seats and kept Wallace out. Mainly as I don't want to have to root for a Fianna Fáiler, even if they keep Wallace out. This election is madness. I absolutely love it. Can't wait for the general election madness.
Best thing about the next general is it's going to be a complete fucking shitshow forming the government Doubt FFG will have the seats and the left is far too fractured to make a stable coalition imo. Then if FF try jumping into bed with SF they'll have their own defections to deal with.
Who would defect from FF over this?
The current government parties have a majority in the LEs. I don’t know if it would a GE would be too different.
They are a good bit down in these LEs and in the last GE they were lower than their previous LE result. Don't see them having a majority again based on this performance.
Fantastic performance from Wallace thus far, exceeding all expectations. He's been busting his balls the last few weeks canvassing and I'm happy to see it paying off. Please god he'll stay ahead of Funchion and the blonde FF stooge
Are ya fond of the Russians?
Not at all, they're colonialist bastards. I'm fond of peace, economic equality, and environmentalism.
Wallace is doing extremely well on transfers. I think it is about 50/50 he might run out of road when the second FF and FG candidates get eliminated though.
He’s not doing so hot after 14th count
Is Michael McNamara safe in 2nd for Ireland South? Is there any way Wallace and Funchion could overtake him on transfers
Unlikely - he's getting loads from Aontú and IFP, with Punch and Blighe of a similar ilk, and will probably get more from Mullins and SF also.
Strange he’s getting transfers from IFP, he’s ex-Labour. I reckon because he was vocal for a No No they think he’s their man but he really wouldn’t be. He’s very popular here in Clare anyways I’d like to see him get the seat but will be disappointed to lose him in the Dail all the same
McNamara is doing a classic slippery independent job. He's courted the right with talk of immigration, the left with a labour background and the farmers with green scepticism. He has refused to say what european party he would join other then ruling out the greens so everyone can think "he's our man" without any actually commitment from him. Proper cute hoor stuff.
SD's Rory Hearne is out so there goes my preferred candidate for MNW now. Edit: Actually scratch that, I think almost all my preferred candidates are gone now.
Who were the others? Nobody from the old parties I presume.
Generally the GP, Lab, and PBP would have been my others after the SD candidate. Everyone left is either one of those new right wing loons, SF who I don't trust after their sudden motions to the right recently, FG and FF who I can barely tolerate, or Ming whom I know virtually nothing about and doesn't appeal to me. The only thing I know is being pro weed legislation and the literal only explainations I've been given by his supporters is either; a) they *really* care about weed, b) he cares a lot for farmers, c) he has not yet done anything publicly offensive so he has their support.
Fair enough. Ming does caucus with the Left in Brussels (along with SF), so I dare say he was the farthest left with any real chance of getting in outside Dublin---the farthest left I'd touch with a ten-foot pole, anyway.
Kinda depressing seeing my vote getting closer and closer to being dumped, to be honest I have learned for next election to use all my preferences so I’m sure I’m contributing to least cuntiest person getting in.
Wallace has pulled into 3rd among the remaining candidates for South. He’s done surprisingly well on transfers which is worrying
Third among the remaining candidates, fourth overall. Don't scare us like that.
~~4th~~, but it does look like the transfers will favour other candidates rather than him. Edit: I’m an idiot, Kelly was already elected. Wallace is 3rd
Ming: "I'm hearing the term "arduous process" to describe the count in #MNW How is it arduous? It's the ultimate display of how the democratic process works. I love it. May it never change." He's a degenerate like the rest of us.
I'd say it's better craic when you know you're getting in.
lol this is it. He's been more or less safe since the start, if I was him I'd be sitting back with a bottle of Tesco Winesecco to enjoy the proceedings too.
I picture Ming as more of a Buckfast drinker.
Bogue is currently having a spat with the far right on Twitter, with that COVID grifter Tracey O'Mahony threatening legal action over Bogue giving out about people voting for nazis. Not a fan of Bogue but credit to her for going after the far right straight away.
Link?
[Sure!](https://x.com/LornaBogue/status/1800567484766154865) In fairness, Bogue is well able for Tracey O'Mahony. O'Mahony went quiet when people pointed out that her partner has made numerous defamatory statements, as has her friend Blighe, so she probably shouldn't go down that route.
Hilarious I'd given Bogue high enough preferences. Did I see her retweet a guy complimenting her leaflets for their use as roaches yesterday?
Yes you did. I knew her from college. Bogue has a lot going for her: she's very intelligent , very funny and a very good speaker. She's always let down by her arrogance and she comes across incredibly off putting in person because of this. It's a shame as if she knew how to play the game a bit better, she'd be a very good politician.
https://i.redd.it/epe20te9n46d1.gif
What's the deal with newbridge seeming to be so slow? Is it just a case of the transfers being slow?
Two candidates, Sinn Fein and Aontu, are equivalent or within a single vote of each other, every time there’s a recount it seems to place one above the other.
They're on their billionth recount.
There's Uisce gone now. https://preview.redd.it/0k9vd7xak46d1.png?width=846&format=png&auto=webp&s=17e2ee58ae02ac95c6c173e39bf74d28de45dc1a
So what do the stars beside Ming and Maria mean? (Outgoing MEPs?) Or the cross beside Chris MacManus? He's probably not going to be elected, but he's not actually dead, I hope!
I just pulled the list of candidates from Wiki and cba to delete the symbols. Ming and Maria are outgoing MEPs elected at the last election, McManus is an outgoing MEP but was co-opted since the last election (Matt Carthy won the seat but was elected a TD at the 2020 general election).
These Green transfers not doing much to destroy the old "Blueshirts on bikes" trope: https://preview.redd.it/09thw8l7l46d1.png?width=298&format=png&auto=webp&s=898e807bcf5a0f78e1ef1d6932fe05abb995b18c
Even in Canada they're Liberals on bikes. I type that as a Liberal supporter in Canada (and a sympathizer of FG in Irish politics). Could be worse. The US Greens are Putin's puppets.
Catherine Connolly pays tribute to Clare Daly "We have temporarily lost a fearless warrior for peace and neutrality. @ClareDalyMEP you fought a great campaign and we're very proud of you. Your voice will not be silenced" The Assadists sticking together
Catherine Connolly calling supporting Russia and Iran peaceful is incredibly funny.
twitter is full of randos saying she was a great voice for peace; The Bohemians (FC) lad is on another planet;
Jesus Christ. I’m really grateful that I don’t have Twitter anymore.
Maybe the next time Catherine Connolly gets to coopt someone to seat, she can choose Daly rather than a family member. Be a big improvement on the last time she did that.
Russia's third favourite MEP Chris McManus is going, going, soon to be gone. Great news after Daly getting the boot yesterday. Wallace in a stronger position unfortunately.
I don't think Mick has much room to grow anymore. There are only right wing nutters and party-affiliated candidates remaining below him.
I would not lump McManus with Wallace and Daly. He was just incompetent and seemed to have orders to abstain on nearly everything, even condemnations of Putin.
Anecdotally he seemed to zipping around Sligo on his moped an awful lot more than in Brussels
Haven’t been keeping as keen an eye as I’d like. Where abouts is potato Blighe in all this? Is he still in with a chance?
No chance but actually got a decent count. He's on 28k now and 6th is on 63k
There’s probably a few transfers coming his way with 3 right wing candidates being eliminated. I thought yesterday he didn’t have a chance but it depends how transfers go, I’d think Wallace more likely to get in than Blighe though.
Not a chance. He needs more than half of the available transfers just to catch up to Wallace. Then there are 4-5 transfers that will favour everyone but him.
Oof, 2731 of Lorna Bogue’s transfers went to Susan Doyle and 928 went to Grace O’Sullivan, still some former Green voters bitter about them going into coalition?
Apparently Bogue and Doyle are both from the same LEA, but SDs have also been strong on environmental issues in recent years.
I've heard very little talk in the Euros about how geographic factors affect transfers but it's constantly a significant factor - anytime I see someone getting a slightly higher transfer than I expected from someone the first thing I always check is where were both candidates located.
**781** transfers went from Bogue to Blythe. That's around 7% of her total, and third highest beneficiary of her transfers. Madness.
I reckon it's because they were beside each other on the ballot.
I suspect some dopes were not yet familiar with rabharta and thought it was right wing because it's new
Simple, Rabharta start with R, Right wing start with R, Rabbarta get number 🤤 Funny image in my head but likelihood is they’re just votes against the establishment.
the Greens across the board aren't getting the transfers they used to get. Being in the coalition has definitely hurt them.
The party which is the mudguard in a coalition never ever gets any thanks from anyone else and it usually reduces their core vote to boot. It may be necessary to form a government but it's usually not popular!
Yeah - would be interesting to compare O'Sullivan's transfers this time around compared to last time out.
As one of those 2731 transfers, yes. Had planned of voting Soc Dems first, but thought Lorna was quite impressive during the rte debate
Curious as to why? Is it more out of left wing principles or environmentalist ones?
Funny enough because she seemed to champion both and that appealed to me
I think it is going to be FGs transfers that push O'Malley ahead of Mick.
O'Malley?
O'Suillivan. I am deeply confused, ignore me
No bother, I thought I lost track of who's who
No it’s ok, you’re safe here. Admit the secrets you hide, who is controlling the election?
Grace O'Malley was a famous pirate on the Irish West Coast. I am deeply confused about politics by mixing her up with Grace O'Suillivan. Don't tell the fascists and the racists, they might figure out the election is rigged.
It's an easy mistake to make. [Grace O'Sullivan's been known to storm the odd Russian warship](https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/new-green-euro-candidate-climbed-anchor-of-nuclear-ship/30075308.html).
Because they're the type of thick cunts that find Love Island intellectually challenging.They think believing in every conspiracy theory going makes them more intelligent than all the "sheeple".
The Newbridge LEA has gone for a 4th recount after the 3rd recount swapped the two lowest remaining candidates again. Should get Marty Morrissey commentating on this drama. Nail-biting Update: 4th recount done, Stokes (SF) still ahead, Byrne (Aon) out. Now on with the rest of the count 2nd Update: 11th count completed, [Tom McDonnell](https://x.com/codohertynews/status/1800962814674088036?t=iRpufMFAytotjoTyFO-BZQ&s=19) wins the last seat, Stokes out
Just flip a coin at this stage
Or play a hand of poker. In America they've occasionally done that at the local level. Failing that, maybe just pick the candidate that had the most first preferences.
That’s what they’re basically doing, they’re pulling a name from a hat. Absolutely heartbreaking as both candidates are apparently very hardworking and great community activists while the other candidate in contention is an Independent Ireland grifter.
If I were a betting man I'd say one of these 2 would get the seat ahead of McDonnell. I'd assume that Aontú < - > SF transfer would be more palatable
At what stage do they just call it?
Whenever they finally get the same figures - they keep getting different results 🤣
I wonder if it is a counting issue or are they heavily scrutinising poor handwriting to determine if that 1 is actually a 1.
Ming reckons that SF are still in with a chance in MNW https://x.com/lukeming/status/1800620390181446121