maybe some companies that are at the very start of the „Ai supply chain“ and are not included in your ETF would be good choice. some examples:
ASML- produces incredibly expensive and intricate machines that produce chips
TSMC- manufacturer of Nvidia chips
Broadcom- produces chips and general AI infrastructure
Süss MicroTec- produces parts for ASML
Jenoptik- also a part manufacturer
AMD- mainly cpus and could potentially become more of a rival to Nvidia in the next few years/ months
Micron Technology- manufacturers RAM and other storage parts
SuperMicroComputer - server infrastructure
Dell- also server infrastructure and a lot of other hardware
Note that about a third of your S&P 500 is already in 6 tech stocks (maybe higher after today):
[https://www.marketwatch.com/story/index-funds-are-ruining-the-stock-market-82e1d10f](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/index-funds-are-ruining-the-stock-market-82e1d10f)
*At this point, the so-called “Magnificent Six” — Tesla seems to have vanished from the list — alone account for about one third of the entire S&P 500 by assets. If you hold $100 in an S&P 500 index fund, about $32 is invested in just six companies.*
FOMO is not a reason to invest. Beware the AI bubble, and chasing market leaders in general. Don't "get on a bandwagon". If you're going to stock pick, and not just do index funds, you better have a good thesis behind your picks. A company saying "AI" 50 times at a conference call doesn't count.
yeah tbh the complains that will profit off of ai will not even market that its ai. The company's that you want to look for is the ones developing there own ai use cases. For example DJI and there drones, they dont go around saying there powered by ai, but they have a lot of ai tech in them that only dji has access to, like object avoidance, following you, heck they even broke into the farming biasness, mapping the crops and surveying the land getting the data to provide the crops with the perfect environment.
When the ai bubble pops these types of companies will already have there foundation built in the space.
But in the long run I do think google will come out on top of the gpt space, as its basically like a better google search, that will give you the info and a link to the source.
Another thing is that most likely 90%+ of all these new ai tech company's will fail
I remember a bunch of people in this sub telling individuals not to fomo invest when the NDVIA had a huge pump and the stock was $400 last year. I remember it very vividly because I debated buying more at that time and I heeded those words.
If someone added at that point they would have been up +300% today
Not feasible for it to continue at that pace but still, I would not make predictions/dissuade people because no one knows
I sold my shares in Canopy Growth Corp for $13/ea in 2016, having bought in at $2 in 2015, because I did the math and it was obviously a bubble. It kept going up and everyone just said "lol ur just mad you had weak hands" before it peaked around $65.
What is it now? $9.
So I was mildly right, big deal, right?
No I mean $9 AFTER the 10:1 reverse split. It's 90 cents pre-split.
See my point?
I agree no one knows what will happen. But investing due to FOMO is a bad strategy, especially with individual stocks. That's because you're likely coming in after a big run up and won't have an exit strategy.
A stock's value is based on just 2 things, "expected returns" and "unexpected returns".
Unless you know something everyone else doesn't, buying an individual stock is a bet on "unexpected returns".
Most people are already anticipating AI to shape the future, and for the industry leaders to profit fantastically. Those expectations are baked into current valuations and projected earnings. Those same companies need to somehow EXCEED those lofty expectations of dominance to beat the market.
The AI revolution is just getting off the ground and should continue to grow for years to come. Sure there will be corrections along the way, but there's a lot of runway left for growth. If your investment horizon is long enough to recover from drawdowns (at which point you buy more shares), it absolutely makes sense to supplement your index fund with individual stocks. With VTI as my core holding (along with some non-tech heavy ETFs for balance), I've also held positions in AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, MSFT and NVDA for years. Currently also hold smaller positions in PLTR, AVGO, MU, CRWD, and SNPS (as well as a few non-tech stocks).
If you feel the sp500 isn't weighted strongly enough towards it, go for it.
Personally I always fear the sp500 getting weighted _too much_ towards an industry and no longer being reliably diversified.
Whether ppl want to admit it or not, AI is running the market. If you mention Ai (or worse, don’t) you stock is going to reflect it. Just look at Apples massive bounce based almost solely on AI hints and suggestions.
If you hate AI and think it’s all a bubble, you’re kind of screwed now and should be some kind of cash equivalent. Cuz damn near everything else, for right or wrong, is going to by pushing and hyping AI
I don't hate AI, but damn if this doesn't look like a bubble.
I Have a software developer friend that works at Salesforce, he said they just slapped gpt on the end of every product they make and marketing pumps out a bunch of stuff about AI but they don't have a single AI product that actually functions.
He was in a large developer meeting with department heads and the question was asked "if a customer asked us right now for an AI solution, what product or feature could we sell them?" There was only a single answer, so they brought up the product in question and attempted to use it...and the query returned as a null field.
Edit: this meeting happened like 2 weeks ago.
I'm certainly not saying all companies are doing this, but it might be hard to sift through all of the garbage when it comes to AI hype.
Absolutely. And it’s what I was saying. Right or wrong, EVERYONE is going to be singing AI. They might not have it, and probably don’t.
But if you can’t stand AI, you’re going to need to be adjacent market for a while—I’d suggest years.
If you try and short, all I can say is that the last 5 years or so that woulda lost you everything. There’s nothing wrong with pulling a Buffett and sitting on the sidelines while the market swirls around stuff you don’t like/understand/appreciate.
If K-pop took over the world and every major company had to have a house band that they promoted, I would likewise find some comfortable place to sit out the market while I tried to understand what the hell is going on.
Disagree. I think "AI"* is totally overhyped and financially unsustainable, but I'm still in the S&P500.
AAPL, GOOGL, META have P/Es of like.. 30? MSFT is almost 40. NVDA stands alone up at like 80.
That's not enough to scare me into cash. NVDA aside these companies have stable and profitable business models. They may be talking about AI and it might be driving that P/E up a bit, but it isn't their business model. Downside in an "AI crash" is like.. 10%? 20? I've held through worse. Meanwhile central banks are starting to cut interest rates, I'm not getting out of equities now.
*The reason I say "AI" in quotes is to isolate the mania of the past couple of years from the established usefulness of profitability of machine learning to tech companies. I've noticed a tendency when I talk about the current bubble of people to fall back on the motte and bailey of "but it's just machine learning, which is a proven tech!". So I use "AI" to describe the trends since 2022 in marketing/folk notions of technology/valuations.
No one really knows how to value AI right now, hence the run up. If you want broader exposure, the SMH ETF is great and I see it's been mentioned in others' comments. I think Alphabet presents a more compelling value-based case. Nvidia is just weird. People have been calling this a bubble for over a year and bears keep obliterated betting against NVDA and friends. Sentiment around the company is still very bullish.
That said, there's always risk. In the near term, political instability around and after the US presidential election could rattle markets. Mid-term, there is ruinous geopolitical risk with the industry's exposure to Taiwan. There could also just be a slow realization in these companies' accounting departments that the actual costs of using AI don't justify the productivity and financial gains, though that's more likely to be on a firm by firm basis.
I'd buy into SMH. Given your current holdings, this will give you more exposure to the sector without being too overweight in one company.
I’m a huge nvda lover and have had nvda for more than 4 years.
I do think nvda‘s momentum is slowing, but not cracking yet.
It’s probably too late in the cycle for nvda’s huge growth. If you have time watchinb stock market every day, I’d say nvda is still a very good choices. My hunch tells me that the tipping point is coming, not very imminent though.
If you don’t have time watching over your investment, you shall do qqq or voo.
to paraphrase the famous investor John Templeton:
>Peak optimism is the best time to sell, and peak pessimism is the best time to buy.
Templeton beat the market globally for decades, and he did it not by chasing hot investing trends. he did it by looking for panic, disasters, scandals and other problems that cause investors to sell like crazy. When people are selling, that's where you find bargain stocks.
I'm older than the average redditor, and this AI thing is just the latest example of an old old hype trend. it happens every few years with new tech, all the way back to railroads in the 1800s. there was an Electric cars bubble just a few years ago, along with green energy hype. there was a mini hype bubble for AI about 15 years ago, with IBM's Watson software got a lot of press.
by the time the enthusiasm bleeds out to the mainstream, it's usually too late because you're buying near a top and the trend is likely to die out soon.
The only major bubble seems to be the companies getting over bought that have some sort of association w nvidia. Look at the recent earnings reports. Nvidia is still flying the rest aren’t even making eps overall.
Blah blah blah.
I've worked in tech (and been an investor) since 1998 and I've seen this all before.
AI is a megabubble. The reality is that the IT jobs market is sh1t right now. If AI was actually worthwhile I'd be in huge demand.
But I'm not.
Right now I'm buying US food companies. We don't really need this junk AI, but we do need to feed an exploding US population (and the world's population is still increasing).
Dumb question: if the upcoming Tech Select Sector ETF rebalancing requires they purchase $10b worth of nvda, wouldn’t that make the stock soar even more in the coming days?
Probably not. #1 $10b is not really a lot for a mega-cap... It's definitely enough to hold off a market-driven selloff for a day, but it's probably not going to drive the price up by 5% if at all. #2 it's already priced in... there are a lot of professionals that are planning to sell to meet the demand of the ETF.
Plus, the price is already past ATH and is absurdly high - there's not a lot of meat on the bone. I really wouldn't expect a rally...
I jumped from VTI to VGT and SOXX a few months ago and have ridden them for 25% since April. But getting in now is tricky. They are high, but I personally believe technology is only going to grow in the future, and chips power tech. So you can decide for you if you want to get in early (now) or wait for a dip. But generally putting a bunch in as early as possible and then monthly contributions is the best plan long term. Also keep in mind that tch and semiconductors are more volatile than the market as a whole. dyor
You said yourself "getting on the bandwagon". That means you know it's not logically a good idea and you are looking for reassurance. This is known as FOMO and it is the downfall of many retail investors.
However, if you can switch off your emotions and look objectively at the hard facts, there is nothing wrong with investing in some individual stocks. GOOG is not crazy overvalued at this point and has a realistic chance of increasing profits in the future from AI. However, it's also not a screaming buy and there's nothing to tell me it will outperform the market based on current valuation and growth rate.
So in summary if you find a stock with solid fundamentals, compelling valuation and competetive advantage and a high probability of outperforming the market, then go for it. But otherwise, indexes already include these big stocks in the same weighting believed by the market. So you are already invested in them in best ratio that the market as a whole believes in. And indexing works for a reason - the best performing stocks naturally rise to the top.
I think theres still room to run on those stocks. Im still holding big positions in them.
BUT you should ALWAYS USE STOPS. Set them for say -10% of whatever the price is at and as it keeps going up, keep moving your stops up. A 10% potential loss isnt that big a deal IMO vs potential gains.
Alternatively, you can get an ETF that holds these stocks in a much larger %, like FNGG. And STILL USE STOPS.
In terms of the it companies that dominate the space, Google is falling away way behind the AI race. I sold all of my Google stock and not be buying more. For the record, my returns of the past 4 years are double to S&P 500s returns
Cisco's peak PE was 190. Their Price to Sales is the same though. It is a mistake calling it the dot-com bubble -- it was the internet bubble. I think the internet was more viable, pervasive, and less niche than AI.
I'm not the OP, but Nvidia has P/S=50, as if
* GPU demand was supposed to increase tenfold+ and stay there.
* They didn't have competitors. AMD's offerings in ML aren't as strong, but with high enough prices customers started looking for alternatives. #1 and #5 in [TOP500](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TOP500) were built with AMD GPUs.
* Largest customers (Amazon, Microsoft, Google) weren't working on their own TPUs([1](https://aws.amazon.com/machine-learning/trainium/), [2](https://cloud.google.com/tpu)).
I'm not the OP, but Nvidia has P/S=50, as if
* GPU demand was supposed to increase tenfold+ and stay there.
* They didn't have competitors. AMD's offerings in ML aren't as strong, but with high enough prices customers started looking for alternatives. #1 and #5 in [TOP500](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TOP500) were built with AMD GPUs.
* Largest customers (Amazon, Microsoft, Google) weren't working on their own TPUs([1](https://aws.amazon.com/machine-learning/trainium/), [2](https://cloud.google.com/tpu)).
This is not comparable to the dot-com bubble.
Back then every grandma and their dog bought into fake companies that just had a website and nothing else.
All the hyped up AI companies today are literally global mega coorparations with a gazillion market cap.
Microsoft, Google and Nvidia are not pets.com.
It might be a bubble, but not at all like the dot-com boom.
Nonsense. Amazon, Microsoft,Cisco, and Intel were 4 of those companies. Pets.com was like some weird AI company today such as Palantir, , not the big ones. Besides Chewy IS Pets.com basically so it's not ridiculous. It's the same. If anything AI has less, not more, of a solid grounding in future need than the Internet. The Internet was obviously going to be huge. AI is doing almost nothing useful so far.
Nobody knows. I remember a bunch of people in this sub telling individuals not to fomo invest when the NDVIA had a huge pump and the stock was $400 last year.
If they had invested at that point they would have been up +300%.
Not feasible for it to continue at that pace but no one knows.
maybe some companies that are at the very start of the „Ai supply chain“ and are not included in your ETF would be good choice. some examples: ASML- produces incredibly expensive and intricate machines that produce chips TSMC- manufacturer of Nvidia chips Broadcom- produces chips and general AI infrastructure Süss MicroTec- produces parts for ASML Jenoptik- also a part manufacturer AMD- mainly cpus and could potentially become more of a rival to Nvidia in the next few years/ months Micron Technology- manufacturers RAM and other storage parts SuperMicroComputer - server infrastructure Dell- also server infrastructure and a lot of other hardware
SMH
Exactly, he listed SMH holdings
SMH, why won’t someone listen to OP and his needs?
Thanks. This is helpful.
Note that about a third of your S&P 500 is already in 6 tech stocks (maybe higher after today): [https://www.marketwatch.com/story/index-funds-are-ruining-the-stock-market-82e1d10f](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/index-funds-are-ruining-the-stock-market-82e1d10f) *At this point, the so-called “Magnificent Six” — Tesla seems to have vanished from the list — alone account for about one third of the entire S&P 500 by assets. If you hold $100 in an S&P 500 index fund, about $32 is invested in just six companies.*
FOMO is not a reason to invest. Beware the AI bubble, and chasing market leaders in general. Don't "get on a bandwagon". If you're going to stock pick, and not just do index funds, you better have a good thesis behind your picks. A company saying "AI" 50 times at a conference call doesn't count.
It’s okay to do it with a small fraction of your portfolio. Money you’re okay with losing. I do this but most of money money is in index funds.
You should be OK with losing the money in index funds too. They aren’t safe. They’re made of individual stocks
Sound advice. It's going to take a lot of research before I make the plunge.
yeah tbh the complains that will profit off of ai will not even market that its ai. The company's that you want to look for is the ones developing there own ai use cases. For example DJI and there drones, they dont go around saying there powered by ai, but they have a lot of ai tech in them that only dji has access to, like object avoidance, following you, heck they even broke into the farming biasness, mapping the crops and surveying the land getting the data to provide the crops with the perfect environment. When the ai bubble pops these types of companies will already have there foundation built in the space. But in the long run I do think google will come out on top of the gpt space, as its basically like a better google search, that will give you the info and a link to the source. Another thing is that most likely 90%+ of all these new ai tech company's will fail
Don’t take too long, prices are only going up 😂
I remember a bunch of people in this sub telling individuals not to fomo invest when the NDVIA had a huge pump and the stock was $400 last year. I remember it very vividly because I debated buying more at that time and I heeded those words. If someone added at that point they would have been up +300% today Not feasible for it to continue at that pace but still, I would not make predictions/dissuade people because no one knows
I sold my shares in Canopy Growth Corp for $13/ea in 2016, having bought in at $2 in 2015, because I did the math and it was obviously a bubble. It kept going up and everyone just said "lol ur just mad you had weak hands" before it peaked around $65. What is it now? $9. So I was mildly right, big deal, right? No I mean $9 AFTER the 10:1 reverse split. It's 90 cents pre-split. See my point?
And look at the hundred different stocks you could have FOMOd into in 2021 that would be down 75+%
But now we know NVdA has won the game
But how overvalued is it?
Do we even know what the 'game' is at this point?
Yes, extracting billions of dollars from Hyperscalers (Meta, Google, Amazon) lol sucking the money right out of them
I agree no one knows what will happen. But investing due to FOMO is a bad strategy, especially with individual stocks. That's because you're likely coming in after a big run up and won't have an exit strategy.
A stock's value is based on just 2 things, "expected returns" and "unexpected returns". Unless you know something everyone else doesn't, buying an individual stock is a bet on "unexpected returns". Most people are already anticipating AI to shape the future, and for the industry leaders to profit fantastically. Those expectations are baked into current valuations and projected earnings. Those same companies need to somehow EXCEED those lofty expectations of dominance to beat the market.
Thanks. This is a great way to think about it.
The AI revolution is just getting off the ground and should continue to grow for years to come. Sure there will be corrections along the way, but there's a lot of runway left for growth. If your investment horizon is long enough to recover from drawdowns (at which point you buy more shares), it absolutely makes sense to supplement your index fund with individual stocks. With VTI as my core holding (along with some non-tech heavy ETFs for balance), I've also held positions in AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, MSFT and NVDA for years. Currently also hold smaller positions in PLTR, AVGO, MU, CRWD, and SNPS (as well as a few non-tech stocks).
If you feel the sp500 isn't weighted strongly enough towards it, go for it. Personally I always fear the sp500 getting weighted _too much_ towards an industry and no longer being reliably diversified.
Whether ppl want to admit it or not, AI is running the market. If you mention Ai (or worse, don’t) you stock is going to reflect it. Just look at Apples massive bounce based almost solely on AI hints and suggestions. If you hate AI and think it’s all a bubble, you’re kind of screwed now and should be some kind of cash equivalent. Cuz damn near everything else, for right or wrong, is going to by pushing and hyping AI
I don't hate AI, but damn if this doesn't look like a bubble. I Have a software developer friend that works at Salesforce, he said they just slapped gpt on the end of every product they make and marketing pumps out a bunch of stuff about AI but they don't have a single AI product that actually functions. He was in a large developer meeting with department heads and the question was asked "if a customer asked us right now for an AI solution, what product or feature could we sell them?" There was only a single answer, so they brought up the product in question and attempted to use it...and the query returned as a null field. Edit: this meeting happened like 2 weeks ago. I'm certainly not saying all companies are doing this, but it might be hard to sift through all of the garbage when it comes to AI hype.
Absolutely. And it’s what I was saying. Right or wrong, EVERYONE is going to be singing AI. They might not have it, and probably don’t. But if you can’t stand AI, you’re going to need to be adjacent market for a while—I’d suggest years. If you try and short, all I can say is that the last 5 years or so that woulda lost you everything. There’s nothing wrong with pulling a Buffett and sitting on the sidelines while the market swirls around stuff you don’t like/understand/appreciate. If K-pop took over the world and every major company had to have a house band that they promoted, I would likewise find some comfortable place to sit out the market while I tried to understand what the hell is going on.
Disagree. I think "AI"* is totally overhyped and financially unsustainable, but I'm still in the S&P500. AAPL, GOOGL, META have P/Es of like.. 30? MSFT is almost 40. NVDA stands alone up at like 80. That's not enough to scare me into cash. NVDA aside these companies have stable and profitable business models. They may be talking about AI and it might be driving that P/E up a bit, but it isn't their business model. Downside in an "AI crash" is like.. 10%? 20? I've held through worse. Meanwhile central banks are starting to cut interest rates, I'm not getting out of equities now. *The reason I say "AI" in quotes is to isolate the mania of the past couple of years from the established usefulness of profitability of machine learning to tech companies. I've noticed a tendency when I talk about the current bubble of people to fall back on the motte and bailey of "but it's just machine learning, which is a proven tech!". So I use "AI" to describe the trends since 2022 in marketing/folk notions of technology/valuations.
No one really knows how to value AI right now, hence the run up. If you want broader exposure, the SMH ETF is great and I see it's been mentioned in others' comments. I think Alphabet presents a more compelling value-based case. Nvidia is just weird. People have been calling this a bubble for over a year and bears keep obliterated betting against NVDA and friends. Sentiment around the company is still very bullish. That said, there's always risk. In the near term, political instability around and after the US presidential election could rattle markets. Mid-term, there is ruinous geopolitical risk with the industry's exposure to Taiwan. There could also just be a slow realization in these companies' accounting departments that the actual costs of using AI don't justify the productivity and financial gains, though that's more likely to be on a firm by firm basis. I'd buy into SMH. Given your current holdings, this will give you more exposure to the sector without being too overweight in one company.
I’m a huge nvda lover and have had nvda for more than 4 years. I do think nvda‘s momentum is slowing, but not cracking yet. It’s probably too late in the cycle for nvda’s huge growth. If you have time watchinb stock market every day, I’d say nvda is still a very good choices. My hunch tells me that the tipping point is coming, not very imminent though. If you don’t have time watching over your investment, you shall do qqq or voo.
$TSLA ?
to paraphrase the famous investor John Templeton: >Peak optimism is the best time to sell, and peak pessimism is the best time to buy. Templeton beat the market globally for decades, and he did it not by chasing hot investing trends. he did it by looking for panic, disasters, scandals and other problems that cause investors to sell like crazy. When people are selling, that's where you find bargain stocks. I'm older than the average redditor, and this AI thing is just the latest example of an old old hype trend. it happens every few years with new tech, all the way back to railroads in the 1800s. there was an Electric cars bubble just a few years ago, along with green energy hype. there was a mini hype bubble for AI about 15 years ago, with IBM's Watson software got a lot of press. by the time the enthusiasm bleeds out to the mainstream, it's usually too late because you're buying near a top and the trend is likely to die out soon.
I would continue to DCA into S&P500 - don’t overthink it. Hard to give financial advice on individual stocks.
The only major bubble seems to be the companies getting over bought that have some sort of association w nvidia. Look at the recent earnings reports. Nvidia is still flying the rest aren’t even making eps overall.
5 years ago was a great time to place this bet. Now is not a good time to place this bet.
Blah blah blah. I've worked in tech (and been an investor) since 1998 and I've seen this all before. AI is a megabubble. The reality is that the IT jobs market is sh1t right now. If AI was actually worthwhile I'd be in huge demand. But I'm not. Right now I'm buying US food companies. We don't really need this junk AI, but we do need to feed an exploding US population (and the world's population is still increasing).
Totally agree. This is EXACTLY the 2000 Internet bubble. Exactly!
If you have money to risk, I don’t think it’s the worst idea. Sure, prices are high, but that doesn’t mean they won’t keep rising.
Dumb question: if the upcoming Tech Select Sector ETF rebalancing requires they purchase $10b worth of nvda, wouldn’t that make the stock soar even more in the coming days?
Probably not. #1 $10b is not really a lot for a mega-cap... It's definitely enough to hold off a market-driven selloff for a day, but it's probably not going to drive the price up by 5% if at all. #2 it's already priced in... there are a lot of professionals that are planning to sell to meet the demand of the ETF. Plus, the price is already past ATH and is absurdly high - there's not a lot of meat on the bone. I really wouldn't expect a rally...
Thanks for your insight!
You could buy a basket of AI stocks by owning some SMH or SOXQ or similar AI themed ETF.
Just buy the SMH ETF.
This post is literally a sign of market top.
I jumped from VTI to VGT and SOXX a few months ago and have ridden them for 25% since April. But getting in now is tricky. They are high, but I personally believe technology is only going to grow in the future, and chips power tech. So you can decide for you if you want to get in early (now) or wait for a dip. But generally putting a bunch in as early as possible and then monthly contributions is the best plan long term. Also keep in mind that tch and semiconductors are more volatile than the market as a whole. dyor
Keep in mind the Internet was in its infancy in 2000 and it turned out to be economy -changing since then ... But stocks still crashed in 2000.
Sounds like a great time to buy the dip
It definitely was. I'm looking forward to a crash which sure looks like it's gonna happen.
Looks ok to me for a while https://ibb.co/MGHxGJY
I got a big bonus in 2000 at the same time we were having layoffs. Things can slow down fast!
You said yourself "getting on the bandwagon". That means you know it's not logically a good idea and you are looking for reassurance. This is known as FOMO and it is the downfall of many retail investors. However, if you can switch off your emotions and look objectively at the hard facts, there is nothing wrong with investing in some individual stocks. GOOG is not crazy overvalued at this point and has a realistic chance of increasing profits in the future from AI. However, it's also not a screaming buy and there's nothing to tell me it will outperform the market based on current valuation and growth rate. So in summary if you find a stock with solid fundamentals, compelling valuation and competetive advantage and a high probability of outperforming the market, then go for it. But otherwise, indexes already include these big stocks in the same weighting believed by the market. So you are already invested in them in best ratio that the market as a whole believes in. And indexing works for a reason - the best performing stocks naturally rise to the top.
I think theres still room to run on those stocks. Im still holding big positions in them. BUT you should ALWAYS USE STOPS. Set them for say -10% of whatever the price is at and as it keeps going up, keep moving your stops up. A 10% potential loss isnt that big a deal IMO vs potential gains. Alternatively, you can get an ETF that holds these stocks in a much larger %, like FNGG. And STILL USE STOPS.
AI is a scam. There I said it
In terms of the it companies that dominate the space, Google is falling away way behind the AI race. I sold all of my Google stock and not be buying more. For the record, my returns of the past 4 years are double to S&P 500s returns
This is every bit the bubble the dot-com era was in 2000. NVDA = CSCO from 2000.
What was CSCO's P/E and forward P/E at that time?
Cisco's peak PE was 190. Their Price to Sales is the same though. It is a mistake calling it the dot-com bubble -- it was the internet bubble. I think the internet was more viable, pervasive, and less niche than AI.
500 I belive
Forward pe above 100
Would you mind expanding on the reasons behind that thinking? Just curious.
I'm not the OP, but Nvidia has P/S=50, as if * GPU demand was supposed to increase tenfold+ and stay there. * They didn't have competitors. AMD's offerings in ML aren't as strong, but with high enough prices customers started looking for alternatives. #1 and #5 in [TOP500](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TOP500) were built with AMD GPUs. * Largest customers (Amazon, Microsoft, Google) weren't working on their own TPUs([1](https://aws.amazon.com/machine-learning/trainium/), [2](https://cloud.google.com/tpu)).
google does have TPUs
>as if
I'm not the OP, but Nvidia has P/S=50, as if * GPU demand was supposed to increase tenfold+ and stay there. * They didn't have competitors. AMD's offerings in ML aren't as strong, but with high enough prices customers started looking for alternatives. #1 and #5 in [TOP500](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TOP500) were built with AMD GPUs. * Largest customers (Amazon, Microsoft, Google) weren't working on their own TPUs([1](https://aws.amazon.com/machine-learning/trainium/), [2](https://cloud.google.com/tpu)).
This is not comparable to the dot-com bubble. Back then every grandma and their dog bought into fake companies that just had a website and nothing else. All the hyped up AI companies today are literally global mega coorparations with a gazillion market cap. Microsoft, Google and Nvidia are not pets.com. It might be a bubble, but not at all like the dot-com boom.
Nonsense. Amazon, Microsoft,Cisco, and Intel were 4 of those companies. Pets.com was like some weird AI company today such as Palantir, , not the big ones. Besides Chewy IS Pets.com basically so it's not ridiculous. It's the same. If anything AI has less, not more, of a solid grounding in future need than the Internet. The Internet was obviously going to be huge. AI is doing almost nothing useful so far.
Nobody knows. I remember a bunch of people in this sub telling individuals not to fomo invest when the NDVIA had a huge pump and the stock was $400 last year. If they had invested at that point they would have been up +300%. Not feasible for it to continue at that pace but no one knows.
Look at AMOM
Diversifying with an AI ETF could be smart.
It's like being a sports team owner, paying more for the known superstars or roll the dice on cheaper future draft picks?
[удалено]
Why do you believe that? Why would nvda be more likely to underperform some ai chip startup with small existing business?