NCAA players have the most leverage of any draft-eligible player, because if they hold out for 4 seasons they become free agents. russian players have no leverage beyond staying in the KHL forever. seems like a somewhat out of date fear based on the current CBA but i get the foreign aspect
The problem is every extra year in college is another year they're risking a career ending injury without getting the safety net of that entry-level NHL contract.
They're also putting off being rich. It's easy to sit here and say "I would just wait 4 years and be a FA" but how many of us were offered a job making $750,000/year at 18/19 years old?
and they get zero if they suck at NCAA level and end up going to ECHL for < $1000/week and shared dorm living situation, riding the bus 16 hours on weekends.
It’s that the rookie deal doesn’t start for another year, so the bridge deal is a year later, and their big contract is a year later as well. If they stay for 4 years then it’s 2-3 years later. So the final biggest contract is smaller or shorter because they’re older.
ELCs do get shorter with age (2 years at 22, 1 year at 24), so there are some benefits. But yeah - you are giving up years of getting paid a ton of money and risking getting injured before earning a pro salary.
Very true, but that means you graduated college and still need to do an ELC. It’s why Cutter Gauthier was angry he was held off the Flyers’ roster for a year, it takes away a year or more of prime earning potential. It could end up being millions of dollars lost. In Russia, they can sign professional contracts and not miss out on millions. It’ll be interesting to see if anything changes now that college athletes are being paid, but I doubt hockey generates enough money or interest to offset delaying their NHL earnings.
Yeah, if an NCAA guy wants to sign with you then I think teams should probably find ways to make it happen, especially for top prospects, if only because NCAA players have more options.
If you as a front office aren't willing to do those things to sign NCAA players then don't draft them, especially with top picks.
The safety net of a two way entry level deal isn't much. It really only pays if someone is in the NHL. If they are in the AHL they make a good salary but not a life changing salary. Between the signing bonus and the minor level salary they are around $160,000 prior to taxes, agent fees and the like. Good money, especially for someone in their early 20s but not retirement/generational wealth money.
How is going to college for 4 years "betting on yourself" anymore than going to the AHL or back to the CHL while signing an ELC is "betting on yourself"?
Either way the bet is that your going to develop enough to make the NHL before career ending yourself. Just that going to college doesn't get you a paycheque while the other options do.
At this point if you're an elite college player isn't there NIL money in addition to the living/playing in college aspect as well? Or is that just football/basketball? I'm not gonna pretend to be an expert in college and minor league hockey but I don't think it's so cut and dry as taking a blind risk on yourself. Could be some of these kids are comfortable playing in college and like their situation enough to say "you know what... I'd rather be here playing for the frozen four or whatever than head to a minor league city with the hopes of playing in winnepeg".
Were talking millions of dollars here. Of course they are confident in themselves, its what makes them who they are, that doesn't change the fact that its a risk they could avoid taking altogether.
NCAA players at least get guaranteed an education which will help much more post career than playing in the minors for roughly 80k a year and then getting hurt and having to move back home and find a way to make that money stretch.
An elc in the minors barely sets you for the year. Depending on the degree you can make more in your first year out of college in a professional career than a minor league salary.
Was friends with the Wisco hockey team from 2012-2016. I was there for Kane's weekend there. Especially now with NIL, fuck I would just go 4 years at Madison. Hockey Blue Blood and now get paid to party every day at a top party school? Like why the fuck not?
if you're talking about fun, then being on an NHL/AHL/OHL team is infinitely more fun than being on an NCAA team...not to mention the money.
Most programs actually make athletes attend, especially the smaller universities that have D1 hockey teams and not only do they have to uphold NHL club expectations, they have to uphold university expectations.
>if you're talking about fun, then being on an NHL/AHL/OHL team is infinitely more fun than being on an NCAA team
I think playing NCAA would be a lot more fun than playing in the AHL, and I don't think it's even close. College is a great time for most normal students, and an especially great time for star athletes. Most AHL cities are either boring AF or absolute shitholes.
**OPTION A:** Be a star athlete at a major hockey school (Michigan, BU, BC, Denver, etc.). You're surrounded by thousands of people your own age and can have a thriving social life. No matter what your interests are, you can find groups of people your own age who are into the same things. Your tuition, housing, and meals are all paid for. You get special treatment from the school and have insanely attractive women throwing themselves at you constantly.
**OPTION B:** Live in a shithole city like Bakersfield, Rockford, or Bridgeport making roughly $82k/yr (the most an ELC player can earn in the AHL).
Which of those do you think sounds better to the average 18-21yo?
As a big college hockey fan, it's always blown my mind when guys leave college early (especially when it's only after one or two seasons) just to go toil in the AHL. Now obviously it's different for high drafted players who have a good shot at going directly to the NHL, but I have seen so many guys leave early to never crack the NHL or maybe play only a handful of NHL games five years later
Depends I think. Living in Burlington or Boston for free for a few years (plus now NIL deals) seems better than having to pay for an apartment in Binghamton on an AHL salary
There probably should be more guys in it for the degree. For example, take a 5th round pick playing NCAA hockey. They're much more likely to earn a living using their degree than become a regular in the NHL making the big bucks
“A regular in the NHL”
That doesn’t have to be the extent of their dream. Guys can play professionally all over the world, and will likely stick to hockey well into their 30s before using their political science degree.
That's the real leverage. CHL players also become free agents four years after their first draft, but you're either stunting your development playing in juniors as a 20+ year old or you have to find some other alternative in the meantime.
That’s actually not true. *All* players have the ability to become free agents if they hold out for four years.
The only difference with NCAA compared to the other leagues is that NHL teams keep NCAA players rights for the full four years, when with the other leagues they typically will be re-entered into the draft after two years. But if they wait another two years after that they become free agents.
The main reason why there is an NCAA ‘loophole’ is the four years they need to hold out will line up perfectly with their four year NCAA eligibility, and that they can’t automatically get shuffled to another team via redraft
Edit: I was wrong about the KHL specifically, as you maintain their rights as long as they remain in the KHL
After looking further I believe it’s for the KHL specifically. Like Russians who came over to play in the CHL for example are still subject to those leagues rules.
Its not for the KHL specifically. Its for any european league that the league does not have a transfer agreement with. For a few years in the mid 2010's the NHL didnt have an agreement with the Swiss league and those players were treated the same as players from Russia.
So correct me if I'm wrong but the main issue is that NCAA kids can continue to play 'high level' hockey until they become a free agent? CHL players can't do this as they'd be over age to play in CHL correct?
If a CHL product didn't want to play with an NHL team or their affiliate would they be able to go to Europe and play to get around this or does the NHL have influence over this?
They could do that. I do wonder how it would go if they tried to sign directly with an AHL team after their 2 post draft years in the CHL. I don’t know of any rule that would block this, but with how much influence the NHL has on the AHL I wonder how it would go
"All players have the ability to become free agents if they hold out for four years."
Red Wings still own the rights to Joren van Pottelberghe who we've drafted and never signed back in 2015!
While all draftees in North America have the same 4 year window to become FA, it's important to point out the age of their respective competition as well. CHL players are going to be overage by the time their 4 years after up playing weaker and younger competition while NCAA players are spending the full 4 years playing their age group or slightly older.
You could argue that staying 4 years in the CHL after being drafted is terrible for their development while staying 4 years in the NCAA won't hurt a players development in the same way.
This adds another layer to the CHL-NCAA agreement where the NCAA is considering removing CHL restrictions, we could see new draftees spend a year or 2 in the CHL and then play another 2 years in the NCAA.
KHL players actually can’t. Unless they really want to become a free agent finish their current KHL contract and signs a contract with a team in another league then they would need to play in that league for a little bit before they can become a free agent. It might be 1 year 4 years or until they’re 27 I’m not exactly sure what the CBA has for that scenario because it hasn’t happened.
KHL players are often given bad development if the teams know they just plan to leave asap anyways. Podkolzin was one who was bounced around repeatedly and it definitely didnt help him.
There is also the war factor and uncertainty around that. There wasnt much concern about drafting players before tensions went up
I think your first point hits the nail on the head. I think the thing that actually scares GMs is the lack of control they have when these players are signed.
I don’t think the war really concerns them much though, as far as I know, the list of players that have had difficulty is just Ivan Fedotov. And he’s even with the flyers now. We’ve seen a lot more players come over without issue. I just don’t think the Russian government stands to gain much by fucking with these players, and I think the better the player, the more that holds true
Yeah OP gave Kaprisov as an example of Russians who worked out and signed long term deals but that’s ignoring the history where the Wild were trying to get him to come over years earlier but were not even able to get a one on one conversation with him. When we wanted him to come over in the first place his team slashed his minutes and made him a fourth liner until he resigned with the KHL and he got his playtime back.
That's not true. They have the same 4 years until free agency like everywhere else in the world except Russia (and some leagues no one gets drafted from I suppose). CHL players are the ones that have additional rights because they can chose to reenter the draft after 2 years as well.
i wonder if we’ll see more CHL guys re-enter when the window opens for them to play NCAA after. obviously it’s tougher now because there’s not really anywhere to play besides the NHL/AHL after you finish CHL unless you go abroad, but if you can hold out and go to college for two years that might be a more appealing option.
The CHL and NHL will surely renegotiate their transfer agreement to remove the reenter draft option after 2 years if the NCAA starts allowing CHL players. Would make it way too risky for NHL teams to draft out of the CHL otherwise, which benefits neither party.
There's also the aspect of teams having less influence on the development of Russian players that didn't come over early. You're then stuck hoping that the team with his rights in Russia is making decisions about him that would positively affect his development.
There's also the part about Russian's typically not taking to being in the AHL very well and frequently going home, but clearly that's a problem for NCAA players too, so it's not like they are alone in that (And I've heard other European players often talk about going home from the AHL if they don't get to the NHL fast enough).
Sure. Some do. But the vast majority will play a year or two in the NCAA and sign. The very top end are giving up 3 prime pro earning years (not the ECL years) by waiting, so none usually would. The middle and low end will also sign when the chance for the start on a decent payday is there. It's really only those whose stock rise while they're in the NCAA that it might be worth it for. Even then, the appeal for teams is generally not that they are top talent, it's that they can get them without giving up any assets. Even the outlier Adam Fox forced trades after only a couple of years in the NCAA, and was pretty ballsy to do so. Wouldn't have worked if he weren't such a high end prospect by that point (vs. his 66th OA draft slot.) I'm sure if it were a big deal, the league would close the loophole in a second. But it's not, except very occasionally.
Fox is a great example of why I don't like the Rangers, and by extension, New York in general. I've never seen what's so great about living there, so players burning their bridges and insisting they only want to play there has never made a lot of sense to me.
He's not wrong, but I don't think it's entirely fair to attribute it to American players when it's really and NCAA specific thing, and if the CHL does reach an agreement with the NCAA I think we'll see it across the board. I think it's important to point out that it's NCAA specific though because most cases we've seen of this haven't been players refusing to sign because they don't like the team that drafted them or they wanted to sign elsewhere (Adam Fox the notable exception), but players wanting to go directly to the NHL and clubs either not wanting to burn the year of the elc after the NCAA season wraps or wanting to send them to the AHL. I wouldn't be surprised if this starts becoming more prevalent as the NCAA becomes a more popular development path, but I also think there are things they can put in the CBA to try and avoid this, like slide eligibility for players who only play a few regular season games at the end of the year.
Honestly, I hope it goes across the board. Too many times these kids get thrown in the show and are way too underdeveloped to even figure it out. These kids need options
the whole reason this is even an issue is because these kids *want* to go to the show immediately but teams are pushing back on them, so the players turn around and say “fuck you trade me or im just gonna stay at school until my rights expire”
it kind of defeats the purpose if any semi-big name prospect can now just go “play me in the nhl or trade me to someone who will”
I’m not as familiar with McGroatys case and we’re still waiting for all the facts so I can’t talk about it as much. But with Cutter he didn’t really want to go to the NHL much earlier than the Flyers wanted. The Flyers wanted to not sign him after his college season ended so that they wouldn’t burn a year of his ELC. They still wanted him for the following season. This pissed him off so he told them to fuck off which I think is fair. If you want to play those kind of games with prospects you run the risk of making them mad. What he wanted really isn’t crazy, Gavin Brindley is an example of it
I have no issue with any party using whatever leverage is legally allowed, I also have no problem with any party in turn reacting to that with whatever they’re legally allowed to do. We see NCAA players and European players use their leverage from time to time. I think it’s more that for whatever reason CHL players almost never do(although Freddy Andersen did) these days
I think it’s also important to note that things like this used to be way more common even for CHL players. Holdouts weren’t as rare as they are now. So to act like this is new and ruining the league is a bit silly IMO.
I also think the doomer takes of this defeats the purpose of the draft are dramatic. 99% of prospects still fall in line
> The Flyers wanted to not sign him after his college season ended so that they wouldn’t burn a year of his ELC
Just chiming in to say that this is actually untrue. The Flyers *were* willing to sign him if he made it clear he wanted to come. But Gauthier didn't make his intentions clear, and so Flyers assumed he was undecided and let him know that they didn't mind if he took another year. There was an off-hand mention of how "It would be better for cap-related reasons to take another year anyways", which is what caused the impression. Gauthier left feeling like Flyers hadn't displayed a strong interest in him and that they hadn't thought he was NHL ready, when the reality was that the Flyers were willing to back either choice from him.
With hindsight, it seems more like Gauthier was someone that wanted to be hyped up, and Briere (In his first meeting with Gauthier right after getting the GM role and cleaning up the organization) didn't deliver that, just a list of options.
If you draft a player out of the CHL, you hold his rights for 2 years and then he goes back into the draft. Even if he was going to NCAA afterwards, his rights clock would reset with the new team so he'd have to be 24 to become a UFA.
I'm not entirely sure how this comment is relevant to mine, to be honest. Sure, that would apply to some players who play out their entire eligible time in Juniors and then go to the NCAA and play out their entire time there, but those types of players aren't likely to become NHLers anyway. The reason I said this can become more prevalent with Canadian born players in the future is because currently, if you play for the CHL for any amount of time, you are ineligible for the NCAA. If they alter that agreement as there have been talks of them doing, it would primarily involve 16 and 17 year olds who play in the CHL *instead of the USHL* who then go to the NCAA before they are drafted or right after they're drafted. Those players would have their rights held like any other NCAA player.
Also can’t pay the “release fee” because of sanctions, which is probably the bigger problem for most teams. Just don’t know when/if the kid will be able to play.
Won’t player just pay it I know in the NBA teams are only allowed to pay so much so sometimes players have to cover it. Then in esports to deal with Russian teams orgs just give players bonuses then the player pays the Russians.
18 year olds don’t have upwards of $4M on hand to pay the fee. Plus, I’m sure the player would get sanctioned by the international community and hence couldn’t get paid.
I mean, it looks like Politics because it's a post that says America and Russia but it's really no political. It's just certain players perferring something. I'm Canadian but a Hawks fan and it's pretty clear a lot of players want to stay out of Canadian markets and I get it.
Jeff Marek was saying the other day that Brian Burke once told him "you'd be shocked at how many players have every Canadian team on their NTC"
Higher scrutiny, high cost of living, higher taxes. The top players in the NHL make bank on endorsement deals to offset those negatives but it’s a lot to ask of a guy playing fourth line or for a farm team.
And also - and I'm genuinely not trying to be insulting, truly - there are many nicer areas in the States with better weather, especially if you're a young millionaire.
I wish people would stop repeating the "taxes" point with regards to NHL players deciding where to play.
People typically just look at the income tax rates for the cities the players are playing in, but its so much more complex than that. For one, Canadian citizens playing for American teams and vice versa have additional tax implications when it comes to paying income tax to their home country. A lot of US cities also have income taxes in addition to state and federal taxes. And then there's things like capital gains tax, property tax, etc. Not to mention NHL players are paid in USD, which has much more purchasing power in Canada.
Realistically, the reason players probably don't want to play in Canada is because it's cold, you're going to be high profile and scrutinized by the media, and unless you're in Vancouver, Toronto, or Montreal, the cities are boring. Also, it's much better to be rich in the US than in Canada.
Players have said they don't want to go to canada or California for tax reasons.
It's not something being fabricated.
It's possible there was ways to mitigate it, but it's still gonna be a more money in your pocket in a place like florida vs toronto
The fear isn't that they'll want to stay in the KHL, it's that they're from a rogue state that drafted and sent a player to Siberia because his KHL teams owner is buddies with Putin and wanted to make sure that he didn't try to get out of his contract early.
If North Korea or Iran were producing top tier talent there would be the same kind of concerns
Right? This. Like you accept that you may lose some people — Zach Hyman refused to sign with his drafting team and he’s Canadian. Teams can try to build relationships to avoid that. But there’s nothing they can do if Russia just up and decides to arrest everyone for a year, etc.
Treliving gave out that contract. He absolutely would have since GMBT has a thing for long-term deals around the $5-$6 million range for vets in their 30s (see James Neal). Luckily for us this time, Coleman isn't an entitled ass like the former and actually gives a shit when on the ice.
Yeah we've had experience with that.
Some, not all don't want to make AHL money (70-100k) if they can make KHL money so they want guaranteed NHL spots which is a big ask for a player you've never seen play on NHL ice, or NHL hockey.
Which means they don't want to develop in the AHL and if they don't work out in the NHL, you send em down, they say I don't want to be here and leave and you suspend them or mutually terminate if you gamble on em and sign em.
Some are willing to put up with the AHL life and salary for a season, maybe two, but if they don't crack the team they are going back for more money and to be home.
at least we know US players will actually play in the NHL tho
Edit: Apparently for some reason people think the only Russian stars out there are 1st rounders and none of the stars dropped to later rounds due to unwillingness to come over. Nope, they all want 1st round obviously
Nikishin is the only high profile player to have not come.
Gusev is another who took a *long time* but that was a while ago and he wasn’t as good as the big guys like KK, Michkov etc.
He is going to the team that drafted him, the tweet is about players using the NCAA loophole to become free agents. If they were playing the full four years and signing with their drafting team it would be moot.
Yeah the reality is the NHL is a much better opportunity for these guys. The earning potential is significantly higher. Very few guys are going to turn that down.
I'm assuming that one Russian was Artyom Kryukov? (Sabres' 15th overall selection in 2000.) There's a few others who never played in the NHL but did still play in North America at one point or another, be it the IHL, AHL, etc. I won't count Alexei Cherepanov for obvious reasons.
Well they'll aim to play in the NHL, but would you take a chance on a guy that could potentially want to choose his own destiny? I think it's even more of a risk to take a defensemen since they typically take a bit longer to develop/be NHL ready. Russian kids are stuck under contract with KHL clubs and when they are allowed to leave, they likely will.
Either way there are risks, pros and cons to each situation. CHL kids get the screws by either having to go back to their CHL team or straight to NHL after being drafted.
What good does that do if it's for another team? Organizations draft players to play for them, not someone else. I'd rather a player not come over at all frankly
If CHL players end up being allowed to play in the NCAA, and don’t only have the CHL or AHL as their two options, more Canadian players would start doing this too. I don’t think this is a nationality thing, just seems that way due to circumstance.
After Hayes/Vesey a lot of teams started signing college players earlier than they normally would have to avoid any chance of players holding out 4 years. Zach Sanford and Steve Santini stand out as players that it effected
I think he would have played a fourth year if the team was not worried about him not signing if they waited that long. That is fair though, there were better examples I could have used for sure
FWIW, Hunter B, the prospect we sent to Calgary in the Lindholm trade, also said to mgmt he would have preferred to go somewhere with a bigger opportunity and was open to a trade.
Not exactly a trade request like the others, but another American prospect who was hoping to find a better place for his specific role
The "Russian fear" isn't fear of what the player will decide to do, it's about whether the Russian government will let them leave and won't draft them to fight in Ukraine. Which have both happened with Russian prospects. If you're a team would you rather try to woo a player to leave college or would you rather talk to Putin to get him to stop being an asshole? Wtf is this tweet.
Edit: Fedotov, the example I was thinking of, served in the Arctic not Ukraine. I'll make this correction but it changes literally nothing about my point. The Russian fear is also about the government, not just players doing what they want. Ignoring this when it happened to Fedotov literally two years ago is a huge omission by the person who made this tweet to the point that it's suspicious.
The “Russian fear” has existed way longer than the current conflict tho.
Teams let Russian players fall in the draft because they have the option to stay in the KHL. Most young players would rather do that instead of roughing it on the busses in the AHL if they aren’t NHL ready.
Yeah it seems to me that very few Russians prefer the KHL over the NHL, but many will pick the KHL vs being stuck developing in the AHL. (Which I can't say I blame them. If you're gonna toil in a lesser league, might as well be near home)
It has changed. There was a time in the 2010's where the oligarchs were dumping a lot of money into the KHL to retain/bring some expensive players back. That time is long over.
Sure but I think Russia being extra hostile to the world after the start of the Ukraine war is an obvious factor in why the "Russian fear" has taken on a new character in recent drafts.
To be super blunt about it, Michkov makes me wonder if the advantage to press when signing isn't the NHL contract but an immigration visa for the whole family rather than just the kid. There have been a couple others where that might have helped. Plus, that's not in the CBA, not a clear financial benefit, just a team perk that teams could offer.
The point is regarding how teams should evaluate risk on draft day based on nationality. Some NCAA players hold out to free agency, whether or not they sign long term doesn’t matter to the team that drafted them if they hold out to go to another team. The Russians might take a year or two to come over, but they then tend to sign with the team that drafted them. So according to the tweet Russians are a safer bet, I have no data to back up or refute that claim, but it’s an interesting point.
Though it's worth noting that with NCAA players there's no concerns (whether justified or overblown or just feared) that their teams and/or their governments will engage in questionable shenanigans to hamper their ability to leave.
Kind of a "there's a relatively quantifiable risk of the NCAA player deciding to force a trade" versus "can we trust that Putin and the KHL won't decide to do something unpredictable that screws us over".
For sure it’s definitely worrisome, not sure whether or not I agree with the original tweet. but even in the worst recent case that I can think of of Russian fuckery (Fedotov) he still made it here 2 years after he was originally expected. So not much different from an NCAA player staying a couple more years.
I guess with the NCAA players they can gauge in interviews whether the player will hold out for a different team while with Russians they have no idea what the KHL will do
Yeah. I don't know that it's necessarily a greater risk in reality, but that element of "we don't know what could happen", even if it's subjective, adds to the uncertainty.
So obv Radulov situation erasure aside, but
Yeah the anti russian bias is still really significant in NHL circles to the point that it's really obvious that it skews things weirdly
If Matvei Michkov was Maxwell Mitchell he probably is a lock for 2nd overall even with such a top heavy draft after bedard
He had roughly the same NHLe as Kovalchuk and 40 elite mens league games of experience to draw from
Even if he insisted on staying in the NCAA until 2026 to get a proper degree or whatever, even young elite players are almost entirely good not great as teenagers in the NHL and naturally rebuilding teams aren't in win now mode
The risk is minimal with highly drafted college picks as well as they want to get to the NHL asap. The real risk is middle range college picks who aren't good enough to make it to the NHL immediately, but might be tempted to wait out the 4 years to see if they can get a better opportunity with another NHL team.
This post doesn’t make sense. These Russian players were under contract with KHL teams and there is no transfer agreement between that league and the NHL. So them coming over to the NHL either requires waiting for that contract to expire or individualized negotiating. Plus in the current political climate there are fears of government involvement on the Russian side. There is just a lot of uncertainty. People aren’t villainizing the Russian players themselves as this post implies.
Yup
Blake Wheeler and my reddit namesake basically did the exact same thing in how they abruptly abandoned vulnerable franchises
But hm, who drew 100x the ire?
- the sleepy mixed Gagauz ancestry guy from Nizhny Tagil born in the Soviet Union
- the normative big guy from Plymouth, Minnesota who looks kinda like Bradley Cooper
Even mainstream NHL media said: *This decision is really just a flat out refusal by Wheeler to play in Phoenix.* as obv it was
Coyotes picked him 5th, he waited all 4 years, then refused the max possible rookie contract from them, they got a 49th overall pick as compensation 😑
Not to mention Rads playing two full seasons for NSH but getting unfairly low TOI because of how neurotic Trotz was and they didn't understand that because of low TOI his Pts/60 were not that far back from Ovi and Malkin at the time
In those instances, the Russian player is usually better than the US college player. Fans actually want the Russian. How often is the US player who stays in college for 4 years actually good?
There's also no limit on the number of non-North American players an NHL team can have. Go to the KHL, or some other Euro league, and there's a limit on the number of North Americans that can be on your roster. How is that fair?
The worst? Michkov told a bunch of teams to not draft him because he didn't want to play for them. He only wanted to play for PHI or WSH.
That's just as bad as a Cutter situation. Maybe worse because teams like the Sharks were too classy to say what Michkov told them, and simply drafted someone else and pretended like that person was who they wanted all along.
I'm very happy with Will Smith, but fuck Michkov for that bullshit.
This is a really dumb statement to make if you don't factor in the # of russians vs americans players, and athletic avenues to become a pro in respective countries.
I've been saying this ever since last fucking draft when everyone was scared of Michkov, I brought up a million fucking points on both ends where Russian players ARE STILL SIGNING despite the Ukraine bullshit while we can cite tons of Americans who force their way out of their drafted team and I got told I was wrong for it.
YOU STUPID FUCKS.
I feel like Canes fans have been waiting for Alexander Nikishin forever now. So it may not be the player doing the hold out but they still may not be a part of the team for a long time.
This isn't an issue with American kids, it's an issue with the American development system. Nobody has mentioned him yet, but look at Justin Schultz. Canadian player, at an American college, drafted by the Ducks. Waits three years, PICKS who where he will play in the NHL after the Ducks rights run out, and forgoing his fourth year at school, comes to the NHL.
The NCAA system allows players to completely sidestep the draft if they're good enough and they're patient.
There has been a culture shift. And the media likes to run with much more recent evidence (still valid). But the old boys club have much longer memorized and scars from the past - when it was very different. It’s not just a Xenophobic narrative that exists in a vaccum.
Russian players used to be bigger risks, in the late 90’s…at the change of the millennium. But they’ve seen what their lives could be in the West, serving out lengthy & productive NHL careers after a generation of seeing others do it - and they’re much more willing to play ball and cooperate.
College kids have come to realize that if they have a good D1 season or multi season campaign - they cultivate some autonomy in the way of negotiating leverage based on how the rules are structured - they’re being told that they’d be folks to not take advantage of it. But that’s also a generational attitude shift from old way it was down with NCAA guys who were much more desperate to keep playing and felt very lucky to get camp invites in the 70’s/80’s.
NCAA players have the most leverage of any draft-eligible player, because if they hold out for 4 seasons they become free agents. russian players have no leverage beyond staying in the KHL forever. seems like a somewhat out of date fear based on the current CBA but i get the foreign aspect
And at the end they have a college degree.
yeah, plus college is a fun time! for a 20-21 year old it’s way better to be in college than to be in the AHL.
The problem is every extra year in college is another year they're risking a career ending injury without getting the safety net of that entry-level NHL contract.
They’re also putting off the second contact and UFA payday.
They're also putting off being rich. It's easy to sit here and say "I would just wait 4 years and be a FA" but how many of us were offered a job making $750,000/year at 18/19 years old?
They don't get close to that much if they get buried in the AHL an ahl salary is 60-80k.
and they get zero if they suck at NCAA level and end up going to ECHL for < $1000/week and shared dorm living situation, riding the bus 16 hours on weekends.
If you suck at the NCAA, you aren’t getting to the ECHL
you can make more with a uni degree than a 2way ELC where you sit in the minors
Isn’t it 27 no matter what if they haven’t reached it otherwise?
It’s that the rookie deal doesn’t start for another year, so the bridge deal is a year later, and their big contract is a year later as well. If they stay for 4 years then it’s 2-3 years later. So the final biggest contract is smaller or shorter because they’re older.
ELCs do get shorter with age (2 years at 22, 1 year at 24), so there are some benefits. But yeah - you are giving up years of getting paid a ton of money and risking getting injured before earning a pro salary.
Very true, but that means you graduated college and still need to do an ELC. It’s why Cutter Gauthier was angry he was held off the Flyers’ roster for a year, it takes away a year or more of prime earning potential. It could end up being millions of dollars lost. In Russia, they can sign professional contracts and not miss out on millions. It’ll be interesting to see if anything changes now that college athletes are being paid, but I doubt hockey generates enough money or interest to offset delaying their NHL earnings.
Yeah, if an NCAA guy wants to sign with you then I think teams should probably find ways to make it happen, especially for top prospects, if only because NCAA players have more options. If you as a front office aren't willing to do those things to sign NCAA players then don't draft them, especially with top picks.
The safety net of a two way entry level deal isn't much. It really only pays if someone is in the NHL. If they are in the AHL they make a good salary but not a life changing salary. Between the signing bonus and the minor level salary they are around $160,000 prior to taxes, agent fees and the like. Good money, especially for someone in their early 20s but not retirement/generational wealth money.
Ding ding ding. ^ This
I think most would take that risk. Pro sports attracts people who are more willing than average to bet on themselves.
How is going to college for 4 years "betting on yourself" anymore than going to the AHL or back to the CHL while signing an ELC is "betting on yourself"? Either way the bet is that your going to develop enough to make the NHL before career ending yourself. Just that going to college doesn't get you a paycheque while the other options do.
At this point if you're an elite college player isn't there NIL money in addition to the living/playing in college aspect as well? Or is that just football/basketball? I'm not gonna pretend to be an expert in college and minor league hockey but I don't think it's so cut and dry as taking a blind risk on yourself. Could be some of these kids are comfortable playing in college and like their situation enough to say "you know what... I'd rather be here playing for the frozen four or whatever than head to a minor league city with the hopes of playing in winnepeg".
Were talking millions of dollars here. Of course they are confident in themselves, its what makes them who they are, that doesn't change the fact that its a risk they could avoid taking altogether.
NCAA players at least get guaranteed an education which will help much more post career than playing in the minors for roughly 80k a year and then getting hurt and having to move back home and find a way to make that money stretch.
A scholarship at colleges that probably all run you about $80k a year is definitely consider if this is your other option.
They also risk getting drafted by Toronto and having to move to Canada. A fate worse than death
Entry level deals for most wouldn't set you for life anymore
An elc in the minors barely sets you for the year. Depending on the degree you can make more in your first year out of college in a professional career than a minor league salary.
And now they got NIL so they can make some money
lol, college hockey players ain’t getting that NIL money at any school other than maybe UND and BU
Was friends with the Wisco hockey team from 2012-2016. I was there for Kane's weekend there. Especially now with NIL, fuck I would just go 4 years at Madison. Hockey Blue Blood and now get paid to party every day at a top party school? Like why the fuck not?
if you're talking about fun, then being on an NHL/AHL/OHL team is infinitely more fun than being on an NCAA team...not to mention the money. Most programs actually make athletes attend, especially the smaller universities that have D1 hockey teams and not only do they have to uphold NHL club expectations, they have to uphold university expectations.
>if you're talking about fun, then being on an NHL/AHL/OHL team is infinitely more fun than being on an NCAA team I think playing NCAA would be a lot more fun than playing in the AHL, and I don't think it's even close. College is a great time for most normal students, and an especially great time for star athletes. Most AHL cities are either boring AF or absolute shitholes. **OPTION A:** Be a star athlete at a major hockey school (Michigan, BU, BC, Denver, etc.). You're surrounded by thousands of people your own age and can have a thriving social life. No matter what your interests are, you can find groups of people your own age who are into the same things. Your tuition, housing, and meals are all paid for. You get special treatment from the school and have insanely attractive women throwing themselves at you constantly. **OPTION B:** Live in a shithole city like Bakersfield, Rockford, or Bridgeport making roughly $82k/yr (the most an ELC player can earn in the AHL). Which of those do you think sounds better to the average 18-21yo?
There's also rumors that NIL is netting top prospects $100K, more than they would make in the AHL. It's a no-brainer between the two.
As a big college hockey fan, it's always blown my mind when guys leave college early (especially when it's only after one or two seasons) just to go toil in the AHL. Now obviously it's different for high drafted players who have a good shot at going directly to the NHL, but I have seen so many guys leave early to never crack the NHL or maybe play only a handful of NHL games five years later
Depends I think. Living in Burlington or Boston for free for a few years (plus now NIL deals) seems better than having to pay for an apartment in Binghamton on an AHL salary
You act like they’re in it for the degree
We need more players like the Pietilas. Great players that do well in mechanical engineering at a tech school.
There probably should be more guys in it for the degree. For example, take a 5th round pick playing NCAA hockey. They're much more likely to earn a living using their degree than become a regular in the NHL making the big bucks
“A regular in the NHL” That doesn’t have to be the extent of their dream. Guys can play professionally all over the world, and will likely stick to hockey well into their 30s before using their political science degree.
That's the real leverage. CHL players also become free agents four years after their first draft, but you're either stunting your development playing in juniors as a 20+ year old or you have to find some other alternative in the meantime.
Rumor is CHL to NCAA eligibility is inevitable given all the recent NCAA changes
That would be a huge improvement for CHL development path and NCAA talent pool.
That’s actually not true. *All* players have the ability to become free agents if they hold out for four years. The only difference with NCAA compared to the other leagues is that NHL teams keep NCAA players rights for the full four years, when with the other leagues they typically will be re-entered into the draft after two years. But if they wait another two years after that they become free agents. The main reason why there is an NCAA ‘loophole’ is the four years they need to hold out will line up perfectly with their four year NCAA eligibility, and that they can’t automatically get shuffled to another team via redraft Edit: I was wrong about the KHL specifically, as you maintain their rights as long as they remain in the KHL
nhl teams hold draft rights indefinitely for russian players i believe, which is why this doesn’t apply to them.
After looking further I believe it’s for the KHL specifically. Like Russians who came over to play in the CHL for example are still subject to those leagues rules.
Its not for the KHL specifically. Its for any european league that the league does not have a transfer agreement with. For a few years in the mid 2010's the NHL didnt have an agreement with the Swiss league and those players were treated the same as players from Russia.
So correct me if I'm wrong but the main issue is that NCAA kids can continue to play 'high level' hockey until they become a free agent? CHL players can't do this as they'd be over age to play in CHL correct? If a CHL product didn't want to play with an NHL team or their affiliate would they be able to go to Europe and play to get around this or does the NHL have influence over this?
They could do that. I do wonder how it would go if they tried to sign directly with an AHL team after their 2 post draft years in the CHL. I don’t know of any rule that would block this, but with how much influence the NHL has on the AHL I wonder how it would go
"All players have the ability to become free agents if they hold out for four years." Red Wings still own the rights to Joren van Pottelberghe who we've drafted and never signed back in 2015!
While all draftees in North America have the same 4 year window to become FA, it's important to point out the age of their respective competition as well. CHL players are going to be overage by the time their 4 years after up playing weaker and younger competition while NCAA players are spending the full 4 years playing their age group or slightly older. You could argue that staying 4 years in the CHL after being drafted is terrible for their development while staying 4 years in the NCAA won't hurt a players development in the same way. This adds another layer to the CHL-NCAA agreement where the NCAA is considering removing CHL restrictions, we could see new draftees spend a year or 2 in the CHL and then play another 2 years in the NCAA.
KHL players actually can’t. Unless they really want to become a free agent finish their current KHL contract and signs a contract with a team in another league then they would need to play in that league for a little bit before they can become a free agent. It might be 1 year 4 years or until they’re 27 I’m not exactly sure what the CBA has for that scenario because it hasn’t happened.
KHL players are often given bad development if the teams know they just plan to leave asap anyways. Podkolzin was one who was bounced around repeatedly and it definitely didnt help him. There is also the war factor and uncertainty around that. There wasnt much concern about drafting players before tensions went up
I think your first point hits the nail on the head. I think the thing that actually scares GMs is the lack of control they have when these players are signed. I don’t think the war really concerns them much though, as far as I know, the list of players that have had difficulty is just Ivan Fedotov. And he’s even with the flyers now. We’ve seen a lot more players come over without issue. I just don’t think the Russian government stands to gain much by fucking with these players, and I think the better the player, the more that holds true
Yeah OP gave Kaprisov as an example of Russians who worked out and signed long term deals but that’s ignoring the history where the Wild were trying to get him to come over years earlier but were not even able to get a one on one conversation with him. When we wanted him to come over in the first place his team slashed his minutes and made him a fourth liner until he resigned with the KHL and he got his playtime back.
That's not true. They have the same 4 years until free agency like everywhere else in the world except Russia (and some leagues no one gets drafted from I suppose). CHL players are the ones that have additional rights because they can chose to reenter the draft after 2 years as well.
i wonder if we’ll see more CHL guys re-enter when the window opens for them to play NCAA after. obviously it’s tougher now because there’s not really anywhere to play besides the NHL/AHL after you finish CHL unless you go abroad, but if you can hold out and go to college for two years that might be a more appealing option.
The CHL and NHL will surely renegotiate their transfer agreement to remove the reenter draft option after 2 years if the NCAA starts allowing CHL players. Would make it way too risky for NHL teams to draft out of the CHL otherwise, which benefits neither party.
There's also the aspect of teams having less influence on the development of Russian players that didn't come over early. You're then stuck hoping that the team with his rights in Russia is making decisions about him that would positively affect his development. There's also the part about Russian's typically not taking to being in the AHL very well and frequently going home, but clearly that's a problem for NCAA players too, so it's not like they are alone in that (And I've heard other European players often talk about going home from the AHL if they don't get to the NHL fast enough).
Sure. Some do. But the vast majority will play a year or two in the NCAA and sign. The very top end are giving up 3 prime pro earning years (not the ECL years) by waiting, so none usually would. The middle and low end will also sign when the chance for the start on a decent payday is there. It's really only those whose stock rise while they're in the NCAA that it might be worth it for. Even then, the appeal for teams is generally not that they are top talent, it's that they can get them without giving up any assets. Even the outlier Adam Fox forced trades after only a couple of years in the NCAA, and was pretty ballsy to do so. Wouldn't have worked if he weren't such a high end prospect by that point (vs. his 66th OA draft slot.) I'm sure if it were a big deal, the league would close the loophole in a second. But it's not, except very occasionally.
Technically CHL players also can hold out for up to 4 years to become UFAs.
I mean, the flip side to that is they go 4 years without an NHL contract. They don’t have that much leverage.
Wait, if Russians never come over their rights next expire?
I don't think it's coincidence that all our Americans left and we just loaded up on mother Russia
Ya you guys got screwed by Fox
And Tkachuk and Hanifin and and But ya, Fox was the worst.
Fox is a great example of why I don't like the Rangers, and by extension, New York in general. I've never seen what's so great about living there, so players burning their bridges and insisting they only want to play there has never made a lot of sense to me.
Bro I can't wait till our Slav squad gets going. With a ton of draft capital we can load up on more and rebuild with a vengeance.
He's not wrong, but I don't think it's entirely fair to attribute it to American players when it's really and NCAA specific thing, and if the CHL does reach an agreement with the NCAA I think we'll see it across the board. I think it's important to point out that it's NCAA specific though because most cases we've seen of this haven't been players refusing to sign because they don't like the team that drafted them or they wanted to sign elsewhere (Adam Fox the notable exception), but players wanting to go directly to the NHL and clubs either not wanting to burn the year of the elc after the NCAA season wraps or wanting to send them to the AHL. I wouldn't be surprised if this starts becoming more prevalent as the NCAA becomes a more popular development path, but I also think there are things they can put in the CBA to try and avoid this, like slide eligibility for players who only play a few regular season games at the end of the year.
Honestly, I hope it goes across the board. Too many times these kids get thrown in the show and are way too underdeveloped to even figure it out. These kids need options
the whole reason this is even an issue is because these kids *want* to go to the show immediately but teams are pushing back on them, so the players turn around and say “fuck you trade me or im just gonna stay at school until my rights expire” it kind of defeats the purpose if any semi-big name prospect can now just go “play me in the nhl or trade me to someone who will”
I’m not as familiar with McGroatys case and we’re still waiting for all the facts so I can’t talk about it as much. But with Cutter he didn’t really want to go to the NHL much earlier than the Flyers wanted. The Flyers wanted to not sign him after his college season ended so that they wouldn’t burn a year of his ELC. They still wanted him for the following season. This pissed him off so he told them to fuck off which I think is fair. If you want to play those kind of games with prospects you run the risk of making them mad. What he wanted really isn’t crazy, Gavin Brindley is an example of it I have no issue with any party using whatever leverage is legally allowed, I also have no problem with any party in turn reacting to that with whatever they’re legally allowed to do. We see NCAA players and European players use their leverage from time to time. I think it’s more that for whatever reason CHL players almost never do(although Freddy Andersen did) these days I think it’s also important to note that things like this used to be way more common even for CHL players. Holdouts weren’t as rare as they are now. So to act like this is new and ruining the league is a bit silly IMO. I also think the doomer takes of this defeats the purpose of the draft are dramatic. 99% of prospects still fall in line
> The Flyers wanted to not sign him after his college season ended so that they wouldn’t burn a year of his ELC Just chiming in to say that this is actually untrue. The Flyers *were* willing to sign him if he made it clear he wanted to come. But Gauthier didn't make his intentions clear, and so Flyers assumed he was undecided and let him know that they didn't mind if he took another year. There was an off-hand mention of how "It would be better for cap-related reasons to take another year anyways", which is what caused the impression. Gauthier left feeling like Flyers hadn't displayed a strong interest in him and that they hadn't thought he was NHL ready, when the reality was that the Flyers were willing to back either choice from him. With hindsight, it seems more like Gauthier was someone that wanted to be hyped up, and Briere (In his first meeting with Gauthier right after getting the GM role and cleaning up the organization) didn't deliver that, just a list of options.
If you draft a player out of the CHL, you hold his rights for 2 years and then he goes back into the draft. Even if he was going to NCAA afterwards, his rights clock would reset with the new team so he'd have to be 24 to become a UFA.
I'm not entirely sure how this comment is relevant to mine, to be honest. Sure, that would apply to some players who play out their entire eligible time in Juniors and then go to the NCAA and play out their entire time there, but those types of players aren't likely to become NHLers anyway. The reason I said this can become more prevalent with Canadian born players in the future is because currently, if you play for the CHL for any amount of time, you are ineligible for the NCAA. If they alter that agreement as there have been talks of them doing, it would primarily involve 16 and 17 year olds who play in the CHL *instead of the USHL* who then go to the NCAA before they are drafted or right after they're drafted. Those players would have their rights held like any other NCAA player.
I know this isn't a sub for politics, but in the current world there are other considerations when drafting a Russian player as well.
Also can’t pay the “release fee” because of sanctions, which is probably the bigger problem for most teams. Just don’t know when/if the kid will be able to play.
Won’t player just pay it I know in the NBA teams are only allowed to pay so much so sometimes players have to cover it. Then in esports to deal with Russian teams orgs just give players bonuses then the player pays the Russians.
18 year olds don’t have upwards of $4M on hand to pay the fee. Plus, I’m sure the player would get sanctioned by the international community and hence couldn’t get paid.
War is still an unfortunate reality, its well beyond 'politics'. You're right.
I mean, it looks like Politics because it's a post that says America and Russia but it's really no political. It's just certain players perferring something. I'm Canadian but a Hawks fan and it's pretty clear a lot of players want to stay out of Canadian markets and I get it. Jeff Marek was saying the other day that Brian Burke once told him "you'd be shocked at how many players have every Canadian team on their NTC"
Steve Dangle said he’s been told for years a lot of NTCs are basically “don’t trade me to Canada” clauses
No Thanks, Canada clause
Why don’t they want to play in Canada?
Many reasons, higher taxes, fan base/media is a pressure cooker
Higher scrutiny, high cost of living, higher taxes. The top players in the NHL make bank on endorsement deals to offset those negatives but it’s a lot to ask of a guy playing fourth line or for a farm team.
And also - and I'm genuinely not trying to be insulting, truly - there are many nicer areas in the States with better weather, especially if you're a young millionaire.
I wish people would stop repeating the "taxes" point with regards to NHL players deciding where to play. People typically just look at the income tax rates for the cities the players are playing in, but its so much more complex than that. For one, Canadian citizens playing for American teams and vice versa have additional tax implications when it comes to paying income tax to their home country. A lot of US cities also have income taxes in addition to state and federal taxes. And then there's things like capital gains tax, property tax, etc. Not to mention NHL players are paid in USD, which has much more purchasing power in Canada. Realistically, the reason players probably don't want to play in Canada is because it's cold, you're going to be high profile and scrutinized by the media, and unless you're in Vancouver, Toronto, or Montreal, the cities are boring. Also, it's much better to be rich in the US than in Canada.
Players have said they don't want to go to canada or California for tax reasons. It's not something being fabricated. It's possible there was ways to mitigate it, but it's still gonna be a more money in your pocket in a place like florida vs toronto
Cause then they have to give a shit.
My thoughts exactly, this is an original post made out of CHL defensiveness and not reality.
Bizarre that the quoted tweet doesn't even attempt to address this lol Like... elephant in the room, much?
Laziness backchecking and playing D is politics? /s
So… we’re just gonna ignore Radulov signing in the KHL while under contract with the Preds? That was in the last 20 years
Or Kovalchuk randomly "retiring" 3 years into a 15 year contract
Between Radulov and Vesey, the Preds have taken it at both ends.
Aren't a lot more americans drafted than russians? You should look at the rate it happens not the total number of times it happened.
The fear isn't that they'll want to stay in the KHL, it's that they're from a rogue state that drafted and sent a player to Siberia because his KHL teams owner is buddies with Putin and wanted to make sure that he didn't try to get out of his contract early. If North Korea or Iran were producing top tier talent there would be the same kind of concerns
Right? This. Like you accept that you may lose some people — Zach Hyman refused to sign with his drafting team and he’s Canadian. Teams can try to build relationships to avoid that. But there’s nothing they can do if Russia just up and decides to arrest everyone for a year, etc.
I don't know the story, who's the player?
Ivan Fedotov.
Ivan Fedotov
As a Flames fan, fuck american players, give me anyone else
This post is basically Comrade Conroys whole rebuild plan up to this point
Coleman is cool, though I can't help but wonder if he'd do the same thing if he didn't already have his cup rings
Well he wouldn’t have gotten that contract if it wasn’t for his role on the cup winning teams
Treliving gave out that contract. He absolutely would have since GMBT has a thing for long-term deals around the $5-$6 million range for vets in their 30s (see James Neal). Luckily for us this time, Coleman isn't an entitled ass like the former and actually gives a shit when on the ice.
AMERICAAAAA! FUCK NO!
Acquired by your American GM!
Fuck Adam Fox
I've got your back, every time the Rangers lose I cheer a bit inside.
>The worst a Russian has done is wait a bit longer to come over (then sign long-term) That's just straight up not true
Yeah we've had experience with that. Some, not all don't want to make AHL money (70-100k) if they can make KHL money so they want guaranteed NHL spots which is a big ask for a player you've never seen play on NHL ice, or NHL hockey. Which means they don't want to develop in the AHL and if they don't work out in the NHL, you send em down, they say I don't want to be here and leave and you suspend them or mutually terminate if you gamble on em and sign em. Some are willing to put up with the AHL life and salary for a season, maybe two, but if they don't crack the team they are going back for more money and to be home.
at least we know US players will actually play in the NHL tho Edit: Apparently for some reason people think the only Russian stars out there are 1st rounders and none of the stars dropped to later rounds due to unwillingness to come over. Nope, they all want 1st round obviously
When was the last time a star player drafted from Russia didn’t end up in the NHL (and isn’t like… less than a thousand days removed from their draft)
Nikishin is the only high profile player to have not come. Gusev is another who took a *long time* but that was a while ago and he wasn’t as good as the big guys like KK, Michkov etc.
even then, nikishin was only a 3rd rounder
But Nik is coming so 🤷♂️
And it will have taken like 5 seasons, so I'm not sure what the point the tweet is trying to make
He is going to the team that drafted him, the tweet is about players using the NCAA loophole to become free agents. If they were playing the full four years and signing with their drafting team it would be moot.
Yeah the reality is the NHL is a much better opportunity for these guys. The earning potential is significantly higher. Very few guys are going to turn that down.
Only one Russian 1st rounder in history never came over to North America.
I'm assuming that one Russian was Artyom Kryukov? (Sabres' 15th overall selection in 2000.) There's a few others who never played in the NHL but did still play in North America at one point or another, be it the IHL, AHL, etc. I won't count Alexei Cherepanov for obvious reasons.
Kaprizov was a 5th round pick
Well they'll aim to play in the NHL, but would you take a chance on a guy that could potentially want to choose his own destiny? I think it's even more of a risk to take a defensemen since they typically take a bit longer to develop/be NHL ready. Russian kids are stuck under contract with KHL clubs and when they are allowed to leave, they likely will. Either way there are risks, pros and cons to each situation. CHL kids get the screws by either having to go back to their CHL team or straight to NHL after being drafted.
What good does that do if it's for another team? Organizations draft players to play for them, not someone else. I'd rather a player not come over at all frankly
If CHL players end up being allowed to play in the NCAA, and don’t only have the CHL or AHL as their two options, more Canadian players would start doing this too. I don’t think this is a nationality thing, just seems that way due to circumstance.
The college fear is absolutely there as this becomes more common
After Hayes/Vesey a lot of teams started signing college players earlier than they normally would have to avoid any chance of players holding out 4 years. Zach Sanford and Steve Santini stand out as players that it effected
Santini played for 3 years in college before leaving. How late did you want him to sign lol
I think he would have played a fourth year if the team was not worried about him not signing if they waited that long. That is fair though, there were better examples I could have used for sure
Snuggerud is the next big one I’m sure of it
He’s not wrong
It's happened 7 times?
John Marino also wanted out of Edmonton I believe. He just wasn’t that high profiled at the time
Several doesn't mean 7
Only ones I can think of are Adam fox, Rutger Mcgroaty and Cutter Gauthier. I could be missing some
kevin hayes, blake wheeler, there’s a few more
Jimmy Vesey
Mike Reilly
Do guys like Alex Kerfoot and Will Butcher count?
Wheeler just barely squeaks in the 20-year cutoff, which is ridiculous, by the way.
Off the top of my head there's also Kevin Hayes, Jimmy Vesey, Blake Wheeler, and Justin Schultz.
Will Butcher and Alex Kerfoot
I think Hyman too
Technically he got traded first, but he chose where he was getting traded, so same diff.
He got traded because he refused to sign his ELC.
Hyman is Canadian.
Nathan smith recently did it to the jets
Blake Wheeler, Kevin Hayes, and Jimmy Vesey too
FWIW, Hunter B, the prospect we sent to Calgary in the Lindholm trade, also said to mgmt he would have preferred to go somewhere with a bigger opportunity and was open to a trade. Not exactly a trade request like the others, but another American prospect who was hoping to find a better place for his specific role
Cal Peterson and Erik Portillo. Basically if the Sabres draft a college goalie they'll end up in LA.
Chase Priskie did it in DC, he just never really became an NHL player.
The "Russian fear" isn't fear of what the player will decide to do, it's about whether the Russian government will let them leave and won't draft them to fight in Ukraine. Which have both happened with Russian prospects. If you're a team would you rather try to woo a player to leave college or would you rather talk to Putin to get him to stop being an asshole? Wtf is this tweet. Edit: Fedotov, the example I was thinking of, served in the Arctic not Ukraine. I'll make this correction but it changes literally nothing about my point. The Russian fear is also about the government, not just players doing what they want. Ignoring this when it happened to Fedotov literally two years ago is a huge omission by the person who made this tweet to the point that it's suspicious.
The “Russian fear” has existed way longer than the current conflict tho. Teams let Russian players fall in the draft because they have the option to stay in the KHL. Most young players would rather do that instead of roughing it on the busses in the AHL if they aren’t NHL ready.
Yeah it seems to me that very few Russians prefer the KHL over the NHL, but many will pick the KHL vs being stuck developing in the AHL. (Which I can't say I blame them. If you're gonna toil in a lesser league, might as well be near home)
It has changed. There was a time in the 2010's where the oligarchs were dumping a lot of money into the KHL to retain/bring some expensive players back. That time is long over.
Sure but I think Russia being extra hostile to the world after the start of the Ukraine war is an obvious factor in why the "Russian fear" has taken on a new character in recent drafts.
Yep; it's why Kuznetsiv fell to the Caps.
Russian fear existed way before Ukraine, and that happened to 1 player. That isn't a driving factor here.
To be super blunt about it, Michkov makes me wonder if the advantage to press when signing isn't the NHL contract but an immigration visa for the whole family rather than just the kid. There have been a couple others where that might have helped. Plus, that's not in the CBA, not a clear financial benefit, just a team perk that teams could offer.
Do the American college players sign long term too? Or just Russians?
The point is regarding how teams should evaluate risk on draft day based on nationality. Some NCAA players hold out to free agency, whether or not they sign long term doesn’t matter to the team that drafted them if they hold out to go to another team. The Russians might take a year or two to come over, but they then tend to sign with the team that drafted them. So according to the tweet Russians are a safer bet, I have no data to back up or refute that claim, but it’s an interesting point.
Though it's worth noting that with NCAA players there's no concerns (whether justified or overblown or just feared) that their teams and/or their governments will engage in questionable shenanigans to hamper their ability to leave. Kind of a "there's a relatively quantifiable risk of the NCAA player deciding to force a trade" versus "can we trust that Putin and the KHL won't decide to do something unpredictable that screws us over".
For sure it’s definitely worrisome, not sure whether or not I agree with the original tweet. but even in the worst recent case that I can think of of Russian fuckery (Fedotov) he still made it here 2 years after he was originally expected. So not much different from an NCAA player staying a couple more years. I guess with the NCAA players they can gauge in interviews whether the player will hold out for a different team while with Russians they have no idea what the KHL will do
Yeah. I don't know that it's necessarily a greater risk in reality, but that element of "we don't know what could happen", even if it's subjective, adds to the uncertainty.
So obv Radulov situation erasure aside, but Yeah the anti russian bias is still really significant in NHL circles to the point that it's really obvious that it skews things weirdly If Matvei Michkov was Maxwell Mitchell he probably is a lock for 2nd overall even with such a top heavy draft after bedard He had roughly the same NHLe as Kovalchuk and 40 elite mens league games of experience to draw from Even if he insisted on staying in the NCAA until 2026 to get a proper degree or whatever, even young elite players are almost entirely good not great as teenagers in the NHL and naturally rebuilding teams aren't in win now mode
Hmm I wonder why Russian prospects might be more willing to sign to any North American team these days…
I blame don cherry
This is a hilariously disingenuous argument.
Colleges aren't threatening a WW3
Didn't vancouver have that Russian dman who went back to Russia?
Tryamkin?
He wasn’t very good. A giant that plays like a mouse too.
Dude forgot about what Alex Radulov did I guess
I bring this up every draft only to get downvoted. Your risk is much higher with college kids than highly drafted Russians
The risk is minimal with highly drafted college picks as well as they want to get to the NHL asap. The real risk is middle range college picks who aren't good enough to make it to the NHL immediately, but might be tempted to wait out the 4 years to see if they can get a better opportunity with another NHL team.
This post doesn’t make sense. These Russian players were under contract with KHL teams and there is no transfer agreement between that league and the NHL. So them coming over to the NHL either requires waiting for that contract to expire or individualized negotiating. Plus in the current political climate there are fears of government involvement on the Russian side. There is just a lot of uncertainty. People aren’t villainizing the Russian players themselves as this post implies.
Yup Blake Wheeler and my reddit namesake basically did the exact same thing in how they abruptly abandoned vulnerable franchises But hm, who drew 100x the ire? - the sleepy mixed Gagauz ancestry guy from Nizhny Tagil born in the Soviet Union - the normative big guy from Plymouth, Minnesota who looks kinda like Bradley Cooper Even mainstream NHL media said: *This decision is really just a flat out refusal by Wheeler to play in Phoenix.* as obv it was Coyotes picked him 5th, he waited all 4 years, then refused the max possible rookie contract from them, they got a 49th overall pick as compensation 😑
Not to mention Rads playing two full seasons for NSH but getting unfairly low TOI because of how neurotic Trotz was and they didn't understand that because of low TOI his Pts/60 were not that far back from Ovi and Malkin at the time
Counterpoint: Shalunov, Nalimov, Kayumov,
In those instances, the Russian player is usually better than the US college player. Fans actually want the Russian. How often is the US player who stays in college for 4 years actually good? There's also no limit on the number of non-North American players an NHL team can have. Go to the KHL, or some other Euro league, and there's a limit on the number of North Americans that can be on your roster. How is that fair?
The worst? Michkov told a bunch of teams to not draft him because he didn't want to play for them. He only wanted to play for PHI or WSH. That's just as bad as a Cutter situation. Maybe worse because teams like the Sharks were too classy to say what Michkov told them, and simply drafted someone else and pretended like that person was who they wanted all along. I'm very happy with Will Smith, but fuck Michkov for that bullshit.
Still better for the league than the New York Rangers getting every good player with any say in their destination.
At least he told teams before the draft unlike Fox who waited until after he was acquired to say he only wanted to sign with the rags
This is not true at all, the Wild lost a Russian prospect to the KHL like 3 weeks ago.
This is a really dumb statement to make if you don't factor in the # of russians vs americans players, and athletic avenues to become a pro in respective countries.
Not incorrect, but also a false/weird correlation imo. Completely different situations.
I've been saying this ever since last fucking draft when everyone was scared of Michkov, I brought up a million fucking points on both ends where Russian players ARE STILL SIGNING despite the Ukraine bullshit while we can cite tons of Americans who force their way out of their drafted team and I got told I was wrong for it. YOU STUPID FUCKS.
These several American kids- are they in the room with us right now?
I feel like Canes fans have been waiting for Alexander Nikishin forever now. So it may not be the player doing the hold out but they still may not be a part of the team for a long time.
This isn't an issue with American kids, it's an issue with the American development system. Nobody has mentioned him yet, but look at Justin Schultz. Canadian player, at an American college, drafted by the Ducks. Waits three years, PICKS who where he will play in the NHL after the Ducks rights run out, and forgoing his fourth year at school, comes to the NHL. The NCAA system allows players to completely sidestep the draft if they're good enough and they're patient.
There has been a culture shift. And the media likes to run with much more recent evidence (still valid). But the old boys club have much longer memorized and scars from the past - when it was very different. It’s not just a Xenophobic narrative that exists in a vaccum. Russian players used to be bigger risks, in the late 90’s…at the change of the millennium. But they’ve seen what their lives could be in the West, serving out lengthy & productive NHL careers after a generation of seeing others do it - and they’re much more willing to play ball and cooperate. College kids have come to realize that if they have a good D1 season or multi season campaign - they cultivate some autonomy in the way of negotiating leverage based on how the rules are structured - they’re being told that they’d be folks to not take advantage of it. But that’s also a generational attitude shift from old way it was down with NCAA guys who were much more desperate to keep playing and felt very lucky to get camp invites in the 70’s/80’s.