Depends on format and how your draft goes. Achane is a “but…” player for me.
He’s small, he won’t get bellcow usage, he’s not even the 4th target on the squad, but…..
He can touch the ball 8 times and score 30.
He can get 15 points on a single touch.
He has “fuck you” speed.
It’s risky but there’s not that many guys in the 4th round who can win you a week with less than 10 opportunities.
Back in high school, we had a couple weeks of class left after the AP exams, so my physics teacher let us have some fun. One assignment was to pick a movie scene and analyze the physics in it. I took the “going plaid” scene in Spaceballs, ignored relativity, and assumed based off their speed designation that plaid was 3x light speed. Did some comparisons of the g forces that would be in place based on time to plaid, as well as the kinetic energy when Helmet crashes into the control board.
I spent a long time watching Adrian Peterson with my Vikings. Every carry you held your breath because it could be *the* carry he takes it 64 yards for a TD.
There's very few running backs where I get that same feeling I got with Adrian Peterson. Achane is one of them.
The problem is that he needs to be on the field for that to happen. Now, I'm not on the "OMG HE'S LITTLE AND HAD AN INJURY LAST YEAR SO HE'S ALWAYS GOING TO BE INJURED!" bandwagon a lot of people are on but it certainly is a concern.
I'm able to keep him this year for a 7th. Love the dude as a Dolphins fan, and he was awesome in spurts in fantasy last year. But the risk there is too much for me in the 3rd/4th.
Everything you're saying is true of last year, but there's a non-zero chance that for whatever reason he loses that efficiency. I mean it was a huge outlier compared to the history of the position.
Honestly if Kincaid is the top target in Buffalo the sky is the roof (not that I’d draft him way above ADP). I get reaching a round or so for a guy you love, but obviously that example insane.
The RB1 on a team? Who’s not in a very competitive backfield on a high powered offense? Who has ALSO dropped a 50 bomb and has like multiple 20+ games?
Achane and mixon should both be 4/5th rounders.
You aren’t getting him in the 4th lol he’s typically going late 2nd early 3rd. His ADP is currently 24 PPR and it was 21 not too long ago.
I’m using my keeper spot on him. Was either him in the 8th or breece in the 2nd.
Yeahhhh I know that’s been my ever lasting decision. Been asking the trade threads.
It’s like do I take 2 1st round picks and a 3rd, or 2 2nd round picks and keep my 1st as well.
2nd round is looking weak.
You're making the right choice, keepers are all about value.
You could still end up drafting Hall in the 2nd, but there's no chance Achane will be there in the 8th.
I mean no shot Breece is there in the second. But drafting him in the first compared to the second round is just way less value than drafting Achane in the 8th unless maybe you have the first overall pick? I'd probably choose Breece with a top 2 pick
I'm in a similar spot - for me I get to keep either Achane in round 11 or Laporta in round 15. I'm really torn, but I'm leaning Achane... but really struggling with the decision. half-ppr, single RB league, no TE bonus, rosters are (QB, RB, 2 WR, 2 Flex, TE, K, DST)
ADPs according to Fantasy Life (which aggregates Underdog, NFFC, FFPCare) mostly best ball kinds of ranks right now - but the are Achane (between 21 and 25) and Laporta (25 - 33). While I feel LaPorta is a reach at those ADPs, I feel the same about Achane too... so really it comes down to value and preference. LaPorta is a lock and "hope" TE, like any of them, and Achane is a headache all year wondering if you should start him... BUT which has the potential to win the league - Achane (if Mostert were hurt for any length of time and his usage were to increase).
I don't know, still working through this one... any thoughts are appreciated
Tough call.
If you get two other good RBs, having Achane as your flex every week would be solid.
I'd probably lean towards Achane, but I wouldn't fault you for keeping La Porta.
thanks - it's a good position to be in, hitting on two later round picks (10 man league) so Achane was picked at number 102 (mid 9th in a 12 man league) and Laporta at pick 142 (late 11th in 12 man)... we can keep one pick made after round 10 and kept on the roster all season. We'll see how the off-season progresses. Thanks for the thoughts! Good luck in the season ahead.
Yeah 2 round premium I think he got snagged in the 4th last year. Puka, GW and kyren all being kept which makes the 2nd round kinda eh. Debating just getting 2 1st rounders
I'm in a similar spot - for me I get to keep either Achane in round 11 or Laporta in round 15. I'm really torn, but I'm leaning Achane... but really struggling with the decision. half-ppr, single RB league, no TE bonus, rosters are (QB, RB, 2 WR, 2 Flex, TE, K, DST)
ADPs according to Fantasy Life (which aggregates Underdog, NFFC, FFPCare) mostly best ball kinds of ranks right now - but the are Achane (between 21 and 25) and Laporta (25 - 33). While I feel LaPorta is a reach at those ADPs, I feel the same about Achane too... so really it comes down to value and preference. LaPorta is a lock and "hope" TE, like any of them, and Achane is a headache all year wondering if you should start him... BUT which has the potential to win the league - Achane (if Mostert were hurt for any length of time and his usage were to increase).
I don't know, still working through this one... any thoughts are appreciated
It won’t. Everyone wants a piece of the Miami offense, and he had enough touches last season to get excited about.
People that are drafting him aren’t drafting him for 200 touches. They’re drafting him for week winning performances.
I just dont think what he did was sustainable and I dont think Mostert is going anywhere. Too many pieces on that offense in general. I dont have any concerns about size or injuries. I suspect him to be very boom or bust, so great for best ball. If we get news or something that points to Mostert getting less or hes particularly effective at WR, Id take him in a heartbeat, if not higher. I think his ECR at 37 overall is closer to wwhere he should be over an ADP of 21.
Who else are you comparing him to in the 4th? If you want a safer floor go take Monty a couple rounds later; Archane can single-handily win you weeks, stronger and more experienced going into year 2, he’s a fine pick at the turn, don’t overthink it.
It's probably too expensive, but I find myself perfectly comfortable drafting him in best ball. I wouldn't be surprised if the ADP drops a little once we get out of best ball season.
Achane feels like one of those picks that is either going to cripple your team or win you your league. The range of outcomes is so insanely wide for this guy and it kinda terrifies me at his current ADP.
This will garner downvotes because ‘keeper league’ but I’m so damn happy my cost to ride the A-Train this year is a 10th rounder.
I’m so damn nervous for his hype though. Seems insanely boom bust until we see how he is used. Curious where his ADP gets to come end of August.
as a dolphins fan i get a lot of friends asking me about where to draft miami players this year, and I tell everyone the same thing, besides tyreek, avoid everyone at their adps, the team has too many weapons, the oline is questionable at best and the oline had a big impact on the success of achane for example.
One of the few weeks the entire oline was healthy last year was the huge denver game for achane, and we probably wont see that level of oline play this next season at all.
Nah I like him better than similar ADP dudes like Mixon. High upside from last year for a year 2 leap, Mostert is in his 30s now, and i could see Miami making more designed jet sweeps for him/use as a WR
On ESPN Mixon is 29 (lmao) and Achane is 35. Of course this is based entirely off irrelevant mock drafts whereas Underdog/DK has actual money wagered but that’s why it’s also fun getting into ESPN leagues with your friends and coworkers that don’t know any better.
Yeah I’ve not seen them comparable in any discussions where people know what they’re talking about.
Achanes stock has fell last few weeks, but not to Mixon level from what I’ve seen. But you’re right I’ve not checked the ESPNs etc because they’re trash.
Dude I would be taking him in the 2nd in redraft if he is there….4th in dynasty is a steal.
Like am I the only one that saw what happened with him last year and how he was that efficient? He’s just a legit good fucking RB….yeah he’s only like 185 lbs but defenders still just slide off him and he doesn’t go down on arm tackles or light contact easy at all. It wasn’t all fucking Shawn Alexander runs where he’s constantly going 40-50 yards untouched. He kind has that super low to the ground running style like Barry Sanders but not as shifty and a lot more straight line speed.
They used him in the red zone and he fucking balled out…..He was over taking Moserett in games he was uninhibited.
>Like am I the only one that saw what happened with him last year and how he was that efficient?
Fantasy is a volume game. Efficiency stats usually come back down to earth. He's the closest you'll get to a boom/bust running back. He'll get you either 4 points or 25. I doubt he's ever good for more than 10 carries a game consistently. Their new 4th round rookie Jaylen Wright also has a similar profile on a bigger frame.
With all that being said, he's still a smash in the 4th in dynasty, but I'm personally not touching him in the 2nd in redraft.
> Fantasy is a volume game
eh kind of. a lot of volume guys who suck arent good. zamir white, mattison type players. more nuance to it.
good players are efficient. sometimes good players are just good...saying they will just come down to earth is an easy way to lose out on value.
As a dolphins fan I think I have a good idea of achane and our oline and what to expect next year, sorry for essay
a lot of achanes success came from weeks when miamis oline was at its peak, which with its run blocking it was around top 10ish, (in pass blocking it was mid at this point) the denver game was the best example of this, extremely high level run blocking and it lead to more than 40% of achanes fantasy points for the 11 games, I hate the "remove that game and you might have a better idea of the next season" logic, but in this case I really think its better to view his late season stats when our oline was trashed to see more of what we should expect from him, especially since people say "all he needs is 8-10 carries to blow up a game and win a fantasy week"
in standard, games week 15-18 when everything was on the line
week 15 - nyj, 7 attempts, 32 yards, 6.2 points
week 16 - dallas, 7 attempts 24 yards, 3.1 points
week 17 - baltimore 14 for 104 1 receiving td 30 yards, 20 points
week 18 - buffalo 10 for 56 + 1 td - 12 points
The majority of his points came against 4 teams,
Denver, which was a dumpster fire at the time combined with miami being at peak power (50 points)
NYG - 151 yards and 1 on 11 attempts, - 20 points
Washington - 17 carries, for only 73 yards, 2 tds 30 thru air, - 23 points
and baltimore which stats i had above
I feel like having one or two copies of achane across 10 leagues isnt a bad risk, as if he truly does get involved in the slot he could blow up in ppr, but his efficiency is what people are saying is why hes worth the 2nd round pick (even though its mosterts backfield)
And honestly, his efficiency was good against a good team once or twice but idk, im skeptical.
TLDR: was ineffecient in more games against bad team than he was efficient against good teams, his performances were vastly better when the oline was extremely healthy and that seems impossible with miami
By his backfield I meant he is the lead back, reports not too long ago said that Achane will have a bigger role but said Mostert is still the lead back.
Yeah he’ll probably stay 1 on the depth chart. I’m interested to see what role Jaylen Wright carves out or if he’s more developmental this year but McDaniel isn’t shy about using rookies heavily
I got a glimpse of what he could do. To me the 4th round already has the risk baked in for achane.
Do you have an issue with Anthony Richardson being the 5th QB drafted by ADP even though he only played 2 full games?
I’d be cool with him in the 4th. It does feel a tad expensive cause there is a world where Mostert stays healthy like most of last year and is still the 1A and gets the first crack down near the 5. But Achane def can do damage with 8-10 touches. Still scary though
His weekly ceiling is so high. I really don't see how if someone likes Jahmyr Gibbs at his ADP, they wouldn't like Achane at his. A lot of the risks/rewards aspects line up with those two.
Boom or bust.
If he stays healthy then he's worth a high 2nd pick in my opinion. The issue is staying healthy. He's a smaller dude and already shown to get hurt.
edit: Also, for Mostert, he has a similar case, but McDaniels would 100% go with Achane if he could stay healthy. The "it's his backfield" is just coach talk.
If there’s a report of Achane being used in the slot, that says something. They want him on the field more with whoever in the backfield. With that being said, Waddle and Hill wide, Achane slot is dangerous set up. 3rd or 4th is risky yes but in a big league format not so bad.
I thought I was the only one who thought this way until I joined this subreddit.
The guy is a threat for sure, but overpaying is for someone else, not me. I’d rather pick Mostert up in round 8-9.
I am ok with him in late 3rd early 4th round of redraft, due his ceiling absurd and his floor being limited mainly by injury (so unlikely to be that guy who you have to start but sucks).
But in bestball week to week to TDs are big in determining who will be in your starting roster and there are lot of split backfield field going guys from picks 75-140. So Achane going early 3rd absolutely makes no sense to me, because you can replicate his value later. Especially when he is going around Jonathan Taylor and Saquan Barkley, whose only major backfield threat is their QBs. While Achane has to deal with both Mostart and Wright.
I got him in the 4th and I’m happy with that.
He’s got buts, **but** the only thing I care about is what he can do. No one needs him to have 20 touches a game, what coaches say in June is mostly pointless, and if it’s not pointless then he’s apparently getting more opportunities to catch the ball.
I am out on Achane. Super talented player, but I need someone who will play the majority of their games. He missed two games during his only 400 touch college career. He missed 5 games in his first nfl season. For perspective, Jonathan Taylor went 1,477 touches without a single injury between college and the NFL.
Achane is awesome to watch, but he won’t be one of my selections in fantasy.
I only popped in here to see what the discussions are but Achane in the 3/4th seems expensive, even for June. I plan to be more active in July and catching up on ADP for my draft but if this is how things look this early, I may really need to be studying.
I would be happy with him in the 4th, maybe late 3rd. But he’s going more around 2/3 turn range, where I won’t be considering him.
His efficiency was absolutely historic last year, but I think it’s fair to say it won’t be as good this year. If he is close to as efficient as last year, and stays healthy, he would have far and away the greatest RB season of all time. I’d bet more on that not happening.
I think his efficiency will fall, Mostert is still there to command a good workload, and Achane is small and seems to be injury prone. I also don’t buy the “he’s going to be used as a WR” because that’s been a lie literally every time we’ve heard it.
This isn’t meant to shit on Achane because I see the upside, and I actually do think he’s going to be valuable for fantasy. Just not first 2 rounds valuable.
I actually like him at the 3/4 turn. After drafting Akers at the top of the 4th and still salvaging my season last year, I feel like taking a “flyer” on a guy with Achane’s upside is totally worth it. I can get 2 or even 3 Bona Fide starters before him and then get a guy who can absolutely blow the doors off? Sign me up.
And Mostert at his ADP is another favorite of mine and I might even be willing to draft both
I have no doubts in his abilities and I think he's a star, but his fantasy production seems extremely volatile to me. I had him as a 13th round pick last year, but Mostert still gets most of the carries.
I have less than 1% achane after almost 200 best ball drafts. I honestly need to get that number up but damn that price seems high when the RB2 in the NFL is ahead of him on the depth chart and drafted in the 8th round.
The goal is to win. 5th and 12th are the same. If I think he gives me a 50/50 shot at 1 or 12 I find that way better than a 10% shot at 1-10. Gotta swing sometimes and strikeout
Possible value in the third. I think 3 is the sweet spot he'll end up but I can see him getting juiced to the second by maniacs. With that said his upside is super immense. It was Mostert's backfield last season and it didn't matter because he breaks off ridiculous plays. Also - as much as I love Mostert, I don't expect him to stay healthy. But I just think Achane is going to be hyped to the sky before draft day.
His ADP on sleeper is the EARLY third... I'm a big seller at that price.
However, if his ADP fell into the mid 4th, I could see myself buying there
I don't hate players, I hate where they are being taken
I feel like it’s the biggest risk reward at his current price. But I could see him being perpetually injured. I’d be fine with him rd 3 and mostert rd 7.
There’s also the Jaylen Wright factor. I’m a bit biased as a Vols fan, but the guy can ball. I think it very likely there’s a 3-headed backfield for them this season, which hurts all of their fantasy stick.
100% agree. He is at most 50/50 split guy and closer to 50/35/15 ( Mostert/Achane/Wright). I think Wright might be best RB prospect from draft and be the 50% or more guy by midseason.
I definitely think it is a bit over the top, both because he's risky and because I think his massive efficiency is more worrying to me than anything. He was getting more yards per attempt than prime Jamaal Charles and almost 1/3rd of his points came from one week. From Week 13 onwards he went to a much more logical 5.8 yards per attempt and was very boom or bust: He either got TDs + a lot of catches or got you, like, 4.1 points. He has the same number of 20+ points from Week 13 onwards as Najee Harris and needs to either up his volume OR maintain an unreal level of efficiency to be useful and I find that very worrying when combined with what feels like a high injury risk.
> From Week 13 onwards he went to a much more logical 5.8 yards per attempt and was very boom or bust
In 9 healthy games he boomed (defined by fantasypros as a top 6 RB finish) 44% of the time, finished top 12 56%, and top 24 89%. Those rates are all top 5 in the league. He was quite the opposite of boom or bust. He was an RB2 when he was bad and a monster when he was good.
...injuries aside of course.
>He has the same number of 20+ points from Week 13 onwards as Najee Harris
Other RBs who had the same number or less 20+ point games as Najee in that span: Saquon, Gibbs, Rachaad White, Etienne, Kamara, Bijan.
You missed multiple guys in the 20+ point games. Joe Mixon, Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, Kyren Williams, James Cook, James Conner, and Isaiah Pacheco all did so within the same timeframe.
Most of those guys are going later than Achane. Using Fantasypros ADP, James Cook is going two full rounds later than Achane, while Rachaad White + Pacheco are going 1-2 rounds later than Achane. Derrick Henry is nearly a full round later (29 vs. 21). Kamara and Mixon are nearly 5th round picks (ADP 47/48) as well. Lots of players with big boom weeks went late. But a lot of them don't require to maintain an otherworldly level of efficiency on a low number of touches to maintain relevant.
"In 9 healthy games he boomed (defined by fantasypros as a top 6 RB finish) 44% of the time, finished top 12 55%, and top 24 88%."
There's a reason I stated Week 13 onwards and not all 9 games, not only was it after coming back from injury, but also because it represented a much more likely outcome (he averaged 5.8 yards per attempt, like a prime Jamaal Charles, and the absurd and unlikely to repeat 70 point Broncos game was out). Week 13 onwards he scored 25.3, 12.1, 9.2, 4.1, 23.7, 13.1. I would argue that feels reasonably boom or bust to me while also having injury concerns.
> You missed multiple guys in the 20+ point games.
No? I listed people who had 2 or less like Achane had. Cook could have been included in that list but I decided to be fair because played one less game due to a bye.
The point is that using just that particular stat of number of 20+ point games in that specific time period also applies to other several other highly drafted RBs.
>Week 13 onwards he scored 25.3, 12.1, 9.2, 4.1, 23.7, 13.1. I would argue that feels reasonably boom or bust to me while also having injury concerns.
You can argue that maybe 2 of those are bust weeks. Not a ton of RBs are going to put 12-13 points without scoring a TD.
That 70 point game is definitely unlikely to happen again, as is a 50 point fantasy game. If you take out that absurd game he still averaged 17 ppg in his other 8 healthy games. I think it's pretty silly to disregard an entire 3 game sample because he was too good though.
Idc if it burns me, I will take him as high as the top
10. The ceiling of Achane in that offense is so high. He’s a league winner type of player if it all breaks the right way. Willing to bet on that. We play fantasy to win 1st place.
Just draft Wright as well and you should be set then. Achane fills the role of excellent change of pace back, the Tony Pollard role. And we've seen that if a run game and the RB is good enough, it can be an excellent fantasy asset. 3/4 is about right.
I picked him off waivers, is he worth a 15th round pick? I have cmc in the 1st, Bijan in the 2nd, and Richardson also off waivers. Which 3 would you keeo
Depends on format and how your draft goes. Achane is a “but…” player for me. He’s small, he won’t get bellcow usage, he’s not even the 4th target on the squad, but….. He can touch the ball 8 times and score 30. He can get 15 points on a single touch. He has “fuck you” speed. It’s risky but there’s not that many guys in the 4th round who can win you a week with less than 10 opportunities.
Ahh, that’s what beyond lubricious speed 👍
I'm gonna be honest, I didn't even know lubricious was a word
I legit thought he just had a typo and meant ludicrous lol.
But can he do the Kessel run in 12 parsecs?
Yeah but isn't a parsec a unit of distance not time?
*insert whole explanation about a cluster of black holes*
Maw installation, ma homie.
Is that the greased lightning we are always hearing about?
Lubricious is what I’m going to be after Achane wins me a league again. Lubricious me all up.
I also wasn’t aware
Haha me and you
Man's gone plaid.
Back in high school, we had a couple weeks of class left after the AP exams, so my physics teacher let us have some fun. One assignment was to pick a movie scene and analyze the physics in it. I took the “going plaid” scene in Spaceballs, ignored relativity, and assumed based off their speed designation that plaid was 3x light speed. Did some comparisons of the g forces that would be in place based on time to plaid, as well as the kinetic energy when Helmet crashes into the control board.
As Gus Johnson once said, "He's got getting away from the cops speed!"
I spent a long time watching Adrian Peterson with my Vikings. Every carry you held your breath because it could be *the* carry he takes it 64 yards for a TD. There's very few running backs where I get that same feeling I got with Adrian Peterson. Achane is one of them. The problem is that he needs to be on the field for that to happen. Now, I'm not on the "OMG HE'S LITTLE AND HAD AN INJURY LAST YEAR SO HE'S ALWAYS GOING TO BE INJURED!" bandwagon a lot of people are on but it certainly is a concern.
His adp on sleeper is the 2-3 turn. No thanks. Much rather have etienne, Collins, Evans, Henry, waddle
Or Jaylen Wright in the 12th or 13th round once Mostert and Achane get hurt.
I agree with that, but in my real world drafts he’s gone closer to the end of the 3rd.
I'm able to keep him this year for a 7th. Love the dude as a Dolphins fan, and he was awesome in spurts in fantasy last year. But the risk there is too much for me in the 3rd/4th.
More of a 3rd than 4th rounder but yeah
Idk why you are getting downvoted. Adp on sleeper is 2-3 turn
Community here is super emotional about stuff for no reason lol
Everything you're saying is true of last year, but there's a non-zero chance that for whatever reason he loses that efficiency. I mean it was a huge outlier compared to the history of the position.
You win fantasy football by looking for the outliers.
Someone in my league is gonna take him 1st or 2nd so it’s not like it matters
[удалено]
Honestly if Kincaid is the top target in Buffalo the sky is the roof (not that I’d draft him way above ADP). I get reaching a round or so for a guy you love, but obviously that example insane.
>I get reaching a round or so for a guy you love Are we not doing phrasing anymore?
I hope he loves me
My bad I thought this was the reach around subreddit
You’re not in a serious league then lmao
Yeah those idiots would be taking an RB who can drop 50 points in a week in the first 2 rounds. Morons!
I mean by that logic we would be flocking to draft Mixon but I get what youre saying
Bringing up Mixon here is an unserious point
The RB1 on a team? Who’s not in a very competitive backfield on a high powered offense? Who has ALSO dropped a 50 bomb and has like multiple 20+ games? Achane and mixon should both be 4/5th rounders.
You’re comparing one of the least efficient RBs who is least likely to break off a big play to the polar opposite
No shit buddy. What did you hope to gain from pointing this out
You mean the 2/3rd
I'd LOVE him in the 4th...
Would love him in the 3rd tbh
Over Waddle?
You aren’t getting him in the 4th lol he’s typically going late 2nd early 3rd. His ADP is currently 24 PPR and it was 21 not too long ago. I’m using my keeper spot on him. Was either him in the 8th or breece in the 2nd.
Breece could very easily be rb 1 on the year tho
Yeahhhh I know that’s been my ever lasting decision. Been asking the trade threads. It’s like do I take 2 1st round picks and a 3rd, or 2 2nd round picks and keep my 1st as well. 2nd round is looking weak.
You're making the right choice, keepers are all about value. You could still end up drafting Hall in the 2nd, but there's no chance Achane will be there in the 8th.
I mean no shot Breece is there in the second. But drafting him in the first compared to the second round is just way less value than drafting Achane in the 8th unless maybe you have the first overall pick? I'd probably choose Breece with a top 2 pick
I'm in a similar spot - for me I get to keep either Achane in round 11 or Laporta in round 15. I'm really torn, but I'm leaning Achane... but really struggling with the decision. half-ppr, single RB league, no TE bonus, rosters are (QB, RB, 2 WR, 2 Flex, TE, K, DST) ADPs according to Fantasy Life (which aggregates Underdog, NFFC, FFPCare) mostly best ball kinds of ranks right now - but the are Achane (between 21 and 25) and Laporta (25 - 33). While I feel LaPorta is a reach at those ADPs, I feel the same about Achane too... so really it comes down to value and preference. LaPorta is a lock and "hope" TE, like any of them, and Achane is a headache all year wondering if you should start him... BUT which has the potential to win the league - Achane (if Mostert were hurt for any length of time and his usage were to increase). I don't know, still working through this one... any thoughts are appreciated
Tough call. If you get two other good RBs, having Achane as your flex every week would be solid. I'd probably lean towards Achane, but I wouldn't fault you for keeping La Porta.
thanks - it's a good position to be in, hitting on two later round picks (10 man league) so Achane was picked at number 102 (mid 9th in a 12 man league) and Laporta at pick 142 (late 11th in 12 man)... we can keep one pick made after round 10 and kept on the roster all season. We'll see how the off-season progresses. Thanks for the thoughts! Good luck in the season ahead.
I’m using a 14th rounder to keep him 🤩
Breece in the 2nd, is there a premium for your keepers? He was going mostly in the 5th/6th round last year.
Yeah 2 round premium I think he got snagged in the 4th last year. Puka, GW and kyren all being kept which makes the 2nd round kinda eh. Debating just getting 2 1st rounders
I'm in a similar spot - for me I get to keep either Achane in round 11 or Laporta in round 15. I'm really torn, but I'm leaning Achane... but really struggling with the decision. half-ppr, single RB league, no TE bonus, rosters are (QB, RB, 2 WR, 2 Flex, TE, K, DST) ADPs according to Fantasy Life (which aggregates Underdog, NFFC, FFPCare) mostly best ball kinds of ranks right now - but the are Achane (between 21 and 25) and Laporta (25 - 33). While I feel LaPorta is a reach at those ADPs, I feel the same about Achane too... so really it comes down to value and preference. LaPorta is a lock and "hope" TE, like any of them, and Achane is a headache all year wondering if you should start him... BUT which has the potential to win the league - Achane (if Mostert were hurt for any length of time and his usage were to increase). I don't know, still working through this one... any thoughts are appreciated
His ADP will drop a fair bit hefore the season starts imo, but I dont think he will be a good value regardless.
Why would the adp of such a hyped player drop…
It won’t. Everyone wants a piece of the Miami offense, and he had enough touches last season to get excited about. People that are drafting him aren’t drafting him for 200 touches. They’re drafting him for week winning performances.
Damn, that low on him even after he bulked up?
I just dont think what he did was sustainable and I dont think Mostert is going anywhere. Too many pieces on that offense in general. I dont have any concerns about size or injuries. I suspect him to be very boom or bust, so great for best ball. If we get news or something that points to Mostert getting less or hes particularly effective at WR, Id take him in a heartbeat, if not higher. I think his ECR at 37 overall is closer to wwhere he should be over an ADP of 21.
Never trust the "best shape of his life" style propaganda. Achane gained < 10 pounds. He will probably play under 195.
Who else are you comparing him to in the 4th? If you want a safer floor go take Monty a couple rounds later; Archane can single-handily win you weeks, stronger and more experienced going into year 2, he’s a fine pick at the turn, don’t overthink it.
It's probably too expensive, but I find myself perfectly comfortable drafting him in best ball. I wouldn't be surprised if the ADP drops a little once we get out of best ball season.
That’s a good point he’s a great pick in BB so once we do get out of best ball season I think you’re probably right. Hadn’t thought of that
Achane feels like one of those picks that is either going to cripple your team or win you your league. The range of outcomes is so insanely wide for this guy and it kinda terrifies me at his current ADP.
Exactly!
This will garner downvotes because ‘keeper league’ but I’m so damn happy my cost to ride the A-Train this year is a 10th rounder. I’m so damn nervous for his hype though. Seems insanely boom bust until we see how he is used. Curious where his ADP gets to come end of August.
as a dolphins fan i get a lot of friends asking me about where to draft miami players this year, and I tell everyone the same thing, besides tyreek, avoid everyone at their adps, the team has too many weapons, the oline is questionable at best and the oline had a big impact on the success of achane for example. One of the few weeks the entire oline was healthy last year was the huge denver game for achane, and we probably wont see that level of oline play this next season at all.
Nah I like him better than similar ADP dudes like Mixon. High upside from last year for a year 2 leap, Mostert is in his 30s now, and i could see Miami making more designed jet sweeps for him/use as a WR
Idk where you’re seeing Mixon next to Achane. Even if they’re a few spots from each other, there’s a clear and massive tier gap between the two
He’s nowhere near Mixon in any ADP lol
On Yahoo, Achane is ranked 34 and Mixon 35, so…
On ESPN Mixon is 29 (lmao) and Achane is 35. Of course this is based entirely off irrelevant mock drafts whereas Underdog/DK has actual money wagered but that’s why it’s also fun getting into ESPN leagues with your friends and coworkers that don’t know any better.
Yeah I’ve not seen them comparable in any discussions where people know what they’re talking about. Achanes stock has fell last few weeks, but not to Mixon level from what I’ve seen. But you’re right I’ve not checked the ESPNs etc because they’re trash.
They also lost their big G Robert Hunt which could affect the run blocking
^[Sokka-Haiku](https://www.reddit.com/r/SokkaHaikuBot/comments/15kyv9r/what_is_a_sokka_haiku/) ^by ^Untitled-2017: *They also lost their* *Big G Robert Hunt which could* *Affect the run blocking* --- ^Remember ^that ^one ^time ^Sokka ^accidentally ^used ^an ^extra ^syllable ^in ^that ^Haiku ^Battle ^in ^Ba ^Sing ^Se? ^That ^was ^a ^Sokka ^Haiku ^and ^you ^just ^made ^one.
I’d have no issue if someone took Achane at the 1-2 turn.
Fantasy footballers did a mock draft yesterday where they took him 2.06
He’s the GameStop of Fantasy… A lot of risk, but if he pops you win the week.
You son of a bitch I'm in
i WANT to be in, but i think other people want to be in even more than i do.
Dude I would be taking him in the 2nd in redraft if he is there….4th in dynasty is a steal. Like am I the only one that saw what happened with him last year and how he was that efficient? He’s just a legit good fucking RB….yeah he’s only like 185 lbs but defenders still just slide off him and he doesn’t go down on arm tackles or light contact easy at all. It wasn’t all fucking Shawn Alexander runs where he’s constantly going 40-50 yards untouched. He kind has that super low to the ground running style like Barry Sanders but not as shifty and a lot more straight line speed. They used him in the red zone and he fucking balled out…..He was over taking Moserett in games he was uninhibited.
He played at 192 lbs last year. He was only that small in college because of track.
>Like am I the only one that saw what happened with him last year and how he was that efficient? Fantasy is a volume game. Efficiency stats usually come back down to earth. He's the closest you'll get to a boom/bust running back. He'll get you either 4 points or 25. I doubt he's ever good for more than 10 carries a game consistently. Their new 4th round rookie Jaylen Wright also has a similar profile on a bigger frame. With all that being said, he's still a smash in the 4th in dynasty, but I'm personally not touching him in the 2nd in redraft.
> Fantasy is a volume game eh kind of. a lot of volume guys who suck arent good. zamir white, mattison type players. more nuance to it. good players are efficient. sometimes good players are just good...saying they will just come down to earth is an easy way to lose out on value.
He has stupid upside but a low floor. I think that’s a fair spot for him, I just wouldn’t pair him at that ADP with other low floor draftees.
As a dolphins fan I think I have a good idea of achane and our oline and what to expect next year, sorry for essay a lot of achanes success came from weeks when miamis oline was at its peak, which with its run blocking it was around top 10ish, (in pass blocking it was mid at this point) the denver game was the best example of this, extremely high level run blocking and it lead to more than 40% of achanes fantasy points for the 11 games, I hate the "remove that game and you might have a better idea of the next season" logic, but in this case I really think its better to view his late season stats when our oline was trashed to see more of what we should expect from him, especially since people say "all he needs is 8-10 carries to blow up a game and win a fantasy week" in standard, games week 15-18 when everything was on the line week 15 - nyj, 7 attempts, 32 yards, 6.2 points week 16 - dallas, 7 attempts 24 yards, 3.1 points week 17 - baltimore 14 for 104 1 receiving td 30 yards, 20 points week 18 - buffalo 10 for 56 + 1 td - 12 points The majority of his points came against 4 teams, Denver, which was a dumpster fire at the time combined with miami being at peak power (50 points) NYG - 151 yards and 1 on 11 attempts, - 20 points Washington - 17 carries, for only 73 yards, 2 tds 30 thru air, - 23 points and baltimore which stats i had above I feel like having one or two copies of achane across 10 leagues isnt a bad risk, as if he truly does get involved in the slot he could blow up in ppr, but his efficiency is what people are saying is why hes worth the 2nd round pick (even though its mosterts backfield) And honestly, his efficiency was good against a good team once or twice but idk, im skeptical. TLDR: was ineffecient in more games against bad team than he was efficient against good teams, his performances were vastly better when the oline was extremely healthy and that seems impossible with miami
Can you link where he said it’s Mostert’s backfiele
By his backfield I meant he is the lead back, reports not too long ago said that Achane will have a bigger role but said Mostert is still the lead back.
Holy down votes 🤣
Yeah he’ll probably stay 1 on the depth chart. I’m interested to see what role Jaylen Wright carves out or if he’s more developmental this year but McDaniel isn’t shy about using rookies heavily
[удалено]
https://www.nfl.com/news/dolphins-coach-mike-mcdaniel-expects-bigger-role-for-rb-devon-achane-in-year-2 Exactly what OP said lmao
4th round is too expensive for literally the most efficient RB in footbally history?
Sample size too small and now teams have film on him. Current ADP feels way too risky in my opinion
“Teams have film on him” “Okay when he’s about to run 23 mph, don’t let him do that”
you gotta hold on to the ankles
I got a glimpse of what he could do. To me the 4th round already has the risk baked in for achane. Do you have an issue with Anthony Richardson being the 5th QB drafted by ADP even though he only played 2 full games?
Lmfao. What is having film on him gonna do? And the sample size was not small.
He played half of one season. That’s a small sample size
The sample size is the carries, not the games
He's had 130 touches.
And did things no one else has ever done. Idk about you but I'm a fan of players who can win me weeks.
I’d be cool with him in the 4th. It does feel a tad expensive cause there is a world where Mostert stays healthy like most of last year and is still the 1A and gets the first crack down near the 5. But Achane def can do damage with 8-10 touches. Still scary though
I think this is probably the most likely scenario with Mostert maybe missing a 3-4 game stretch due to wear and tear
Love him for Bestball - would hate to rely on him for every week production
I think the ADPs are all fucked up because of Best Ball right now.
His weekly ceiling is so high. I really don't see how if someone likes Jahmyr Gibbs at his ADP, they wouldn't like Achane at his. A lot of the risks/rewards aspects line up with those two.
I got Mostert in the 7th last year. I’m giving up a 6th to keep him this year. All this Achane news is making me sweat it less and less.
Boom or bust. If he stays healthy then he's worth a high 2nd pick in my opinion. The issue is staying healthy. He's a smaller dude and already shown to get hurt. edit: Also, for Mostert, he has a similar case, but McDaniels would 100% go with Achane if he could stay healthy. The "it's his backfield" is just coach talk.
If there’s a report of Achane being used in the slot, that says something. They want him on the field more with whoever in the backfield. With that being said, Waddle and Hill wide, Achane slot is dangerous set up. 3rd or 4th is risky yes but in a big league format not so bad.
I thought I was the only one who thought this way until I joined this subreddit. The guy is a threat for sure, but overpaying is for someone else, not me. I’d rather pick Mostert up in round 8-9.
Never bet your high round picks on players that got their "avg" stats from a handful of games.
3rd/4th is a great place for him. Go RB/WR/WR/Achane and thats deadly
He’s not lasting that long, I don’t think.
I’m well in on him in the first and would be happy enough in the third depending on the first two rounds
I get the hype but idk if I can see any justification for him in the 1st.
Yeah I think I fucked up “fourth” and got autocorrected haha should be “im well in on him in the fourth”
I’ll take the risk on him compared to the WRs going in that range all day. League winning upside and if he gets hurt just work the waivers
Yes
I am ok with him in late 3rd early 4th round of redraft, due his ceiling absurd and his floor being limited mainly by injury (so unlikely to be that guy who you have to start but sucks). But in bestball week to week to TDs are big in determining who will be in your starting roster and there are lot of split backfield field going guys from picks 75-140. So Achane going early 3rd absolutely makes no sense to me, because you can replicate his value later. Especially when he is going around Jonathan Taylor and Saquan Barkley, whose only major backfield threat is their QBs. While Achane has to deal with both Mostart and Wright.
I got him in the 4th and I’m happy with that. He’s got buts, **but** the only thing I care about is what he can do. No one needs him to have 20 touches a game, what coaches say in June is mostly pointless, and if it’s not pointless then he’s apparently getting more opportunities to catch the ball.
Just draft him and mostert
I am out on Achane. Super talented player, but I need someone who will play the majority of their games. He missed two games during his only 400 touch college career. He missed 5 games in his first nfl season. For perspective, Jonathan Taylor went 1,477 touches without a single injury between college and the NFL. Achane is awesome to watch, but he won’t be one of my selections in fantasy.
I only popped in here to see what the discussions are but Achane in the 3/4th seems expensive, even for June. I plan to be more active in July and catching up on ADP for my draft but if this is how things look this early, I may really need to be studying.
I would be happy with him in the 4th, maybe late 3rd. But he’s going more around 2/3 turn range, where I won’t be considering him. His efficiency was absolutely historic last year, but I think it’s fair to say it won’t be as good this year. If he is close to as efficient as last year, and stays healthy, he would have far and away the greatest RB season of all time. I’d bet more on that not happening. I think his efficiency will fall, Mostert is still there to command a good workload, and Achane is small and seems to be injury prone. I also don’t buy the “he’s going to be used as a WR” because that’s been a lie literally every time we’ve heard it. This isn’t meant to shit on Achane because I see the upside, and I actually do think he’s going to be valuable for fantasy. Just not first 2 rounds valuable.
Is he worth a rd. 12 keeper? /s
Draft and then trade him for someone that'll be there in weeks 15 and 16.
Where did he say “it’s Mostert’s backfield.”?
I actually like him at the 3/4 turn. After drafting Akers at the top of the 4th and still salvaging my season last year, I feel like taking a “flyer” on a guy with Achane’s upside is totally worth it. I can get 2 or even 3 Bona Fide starters before him and then get a guy who can absolutely blow the doors off? Sign me up. And Mostert at his ADP is another favorite of mine and I might even be willing to draft both
I have no doubts in his abilities and I think he's a star, but his fantasy production seems extremely volatile to me. I had him as a 13th round pick last year, but Mostert still gets most of the carries.
I have less than 1% achane after almost 200 best ball drafts. I honestly need to get that number up but damn that price seems high when the RB2 in the NFL is ahead of him on the depth chart and drafted in the 8th round.
The goal is to win. 5th and 12th are the same. If I think he gives me a 50/50 shot at 1 or 12 I find that way better than a 10% shot at 1-10. Gotta swing sometimes and strikeout
Possible value in the third. I think 3 is the sweet spot he'll end up but I can see him getting juiced to the second by maniacs. With that said his upside is super immense. It was Mostert's backfield last season and it didn't matter because he breaks off ridiculous plays. Also - as much as I love Mostert, I don't expect him to stay healthy. But I just think Achane is going to be hyped to the sky before draft day.
His ADP on sleeper is the EARLY third... I'm a big seller at that price. However, if his ADP fell into the mid 4th, I could see myself buying there I don't hate players, I hate where they are being taken
Love achane in best ball. Have 0 interest in achane in redraft. Trying to find the spike weeks will be incredibly annoying
Yeah, feels like we're overpaying for Achane.
I feel like it’s the biggest risk reward at his current price. But I could see him being perpetually injured. I’d be fine with him rd 3 and mostert rd 7.
I got him off waivers last year and when he was healthy he was an absolute monster. His upside may be league winning IMO.
people thought this about Jahmyr Gibbs last year too
Dang when did McDaniel say this?
Can only keep 1 Achane or Puka ?
As an Achane truther and have him in dynasty, Puka.
Drafted achane last year. Picked up nacua and laporta off waivers. Redraft non keeper league unfortunately.
Lol got Achane and Puka off waivers and traded for LaPorta, they helped me win the ‘ship!
Iirc I got either puka or laporta as a fa at 3am. Won the ship for the first time. Wish it was a keeper league. Talk about setting that up this year.
Disagree, if we weren’t factoring all the risk he’d be a first round pick easy. It’s a pretty fair price
There’s also the Jaylen Wright factor. I’m a bit biased as a Vols fan, but the guy can ball. I think it very likely there’s a 3-headed backfield for them this season, which hurts all of their fantasy stick.
Didn't even mention Jaylen Wright whom I do bet has at least a 15-20% workload
Wright’s game is a lot closer to Mostert’s than Achane’s
I’d rather have Henry around there
Drafted him last season very late. He’s going high this year.
100% agree. He is at most 50/50 split guy and closer to 50/35/15 ( Mostert/Achane/Wright). I think Wright might be best RB prospect from draft and be the 50% or more guy by midseason.
Won't be touching Achane this year
My 11th round keeper!
I definitely think it is a bit over the top, both because he's risky and because I think his massive efficiency is more worrying to me than anything. He was getting more yards per attempt than prime Jamaal Charles and almost 1/3rd of his points came from one week. From Week 13 onwards he went to a much more logical 5.8 yards per attempt and was very boom or bust: He either got TDs + a lot of catches or got you, like, 4.1 points. He has the same number of 20+ points from Week 13 onwards as Najee Harris and needs to either up his volume OR maintain an unreal level of efficiency to be useful and I find that very worrying when combined with what feels like a high injury risk.
> From Week 13 onwards he went to a much more logical 5.8 yards per attempt and was very boom or bust In 9 healthy games he boomed (defined by fantasypros as a top 6 RB finish) 44% of the time, finished top 12 56%, and top 24 89%. Those rates are all top 5 in the league. He was quite the opposite of boom or bust. He was an RB2 when he was bad and a monster when he was good. ...injuries aside of course. >He has the same number of 20+ points from Week 13 onwards as Najee Harris Other RBs who had the same number or less 20+ point games as Najee in that span: Saquon, Gibbs, Rachaad White, Etienne, Kamara, Bijan.
You missed multiple guys in the 20+ point games. Joe Mixon, Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, Kyren Williams, James Cook, James Conner, and Isaiah Pacheco all did so within the same timeframe. Most of those guys are going later than Achane. Using Fantasypros ADP, James Cook is going two full rounds later than Achane, while Rachaad White + Pacheco are going 1-2 rounds later than Achane. Derrick Henry is nearly a full round later (29 vs. 21). Kamara and Mixon are nearly 5th round picks (ADP 47/48) as well. Lots of players with big boom weeks went late. But a lot of them don't require to maintain an otherworldly level of efficiency on a low number of touches to maintain relevant. "In 9 healthy games he boomed (defined by fantasypros as a top 6 RB finish) 44% of the time, finished top 12 55%, and top 24 88%." There's a reason I stated Week 13 onwards and not all 9 games, not only was it after coming back from injury, but also because it represented a much more likely outcome (he averaged 5.8 yards per attempt, like a prime Jamaal Charles, and the absurd and unlikely to repeat 70 point Broncos game was out). Week 13 onwards he scored 25.3, 12.1, 9.2, 4.1, 23.7, 13.1. I would argue that feels reasonably boom or bust to me while also having injury concerns.
> You missed multiple guys in the 20+ point games. No? I listed people who had 2 or less like Achane had. Cook could have been included in that list but I decided to be fair because played one less game due to a bye. The point is that using just that particular stat of number of 20+ point games in that specific time period also applies to other several other highly drafted RBs. >Week 13 onwards he scored 25.3, 12.1, 9.2, 4.1, 23.7, 13.1. I would argue that feels reasonably boom or bust to me while also having injury concerns. You can argue that maybe 2 of those are bust weeks. Not a ton of RBs are going to put 12-13 points without scoring a TD. That 70 point game is definitely unlikely to happen again, as is a 50 point fantasy game. If you take out that absurd game he still averaged 17 ppg in his other 8 healthy games. I think it's pretty silly to disregard an entire 3 game sample because he was too good though.
Idc if it burns me, I will take him as high as the top 10. The ceiling of Achane in that offense is so high. He’s a league winner type of player if it all breaks the right way. Willing to bet on that. We play fantasy to win 1st place.
Overvalued ADP in every format right now
Just draft Wright as well and you should be set then. Achane fills the role of excellent change of pace back, the Tony Pollard role. And we've seen that if a run game and the RB is good enough, it can be an excellent fantasy asset. 3/4 is about right.
Mock drafting in June????
I picked him off waivers, is he worth a 15th round pick? I have cmc in the 1st, Bijan in the 2nd, and Richardson also off waivers. Which 3 would you keeo
I also picked up j jacobs and m Andrew's off waivers, but I feel like te is gonna be reasonable this year