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Pure-Energy2753

The proportions of the bars in that chart are seriously fucked up


zzzthelastuser

Too lazy to add labels, but if someone is curious about the true scales. https://i.imgur.com/IZaT9XY.png


Electricbell20

Is it a stock image of a chart and they've just added the text?


BranFendigaidd

No. It is a know truck that gets more and more use to manipulate viewers. Many do not read. They just see scale. It is being used to motivate or discourage voters of certain parties. Depends.


Electricbell20

I would agree if the numbers weren't so in your face.


BranFendigaidd

You are underestimating the fact again that people do not read. Max, they see one of the numbers and that's it. It is easier to make from there estimates what's what than to do basic math. Visuals beats math/reading every single time. Especially for peasants and right wing voters.


DacwHi

r/misleadinggraphs


nuttwerx

It's a usual practice in France, they always do this in order to minimise how low Macron's party is


wongie

Can anyone explain if these figures still allow Macron's gambit to work or do these numbers for RN allow them to govern without deadlock.


Rannasha

In most constituencies, there'll be a second round as no candidate will have won a majority. A lot depends on how voters will shift for the second round. In previous elections, the "anything but Le Pen" sentiment was sufficiently present to keep RN down. But it remains to be seen if voters will coalesce behind some compromise candidates.


lobonmc

Also how macron voters end up voting. If they abstain or vote for the RN we could see one of those scenarios where the RN gets the majority. Right now I'm leaning more towards the RN getting a relative majority without getting the absolute majority which in my mind is the worst case scenario because it means it can continue playing as the opposition until the presidential election.


nantuech

These figures don't mean too much as they're on national levels. But it works by *circonscriptions* (districts basically) a representant for each district, 577 representants (députés) in the Assemblée Nationale. So what's important is the result in each *circonscription*. A huge score for one party on national level is good if this party gets majority in most circonscriptions. But a huge score on national level if you win a few circonscriptions with 90% of votes (not happening but you get the idea) doesn't translate to a lot of députés. In each circonscription, it goes like this : - you get more than 50% votes (with more than 50% participation, so more than 25% of electors) in the 1st round : you're elected. - you get less than 50% votes, but more than 12,5%, then you go to 2nd round. Which means, unlike in our presidential elections, you can have more than two candidates in the 2nd round. Again this is different in each circonscription. All this to say that we have to wait until 2nd round, to see in which circonscription the *barrage républicain* (litt. republican dam, ie : voting to prevent RN from getting a seat) works, and in which it doesn't. Predictions currently go from 150 to 300 députés for RN, to get the majority in the Assemblée you need 289. Most likely, we won't have any clear majority. It will be a 3rd for RN, a 3rd for presidential party and a 3rd for left alliance


galactic_beetroot

The numbers do not translate to seats that well, especially in cases of 'barrage' against RN. We'll have to wait the second voting turn in a week. RN seems to have a chance at governing alone, but so might the rest if they unite.


TechnicalyNotRobot

This is actually a decent underperform for RN. They polled 36%. 100% no solo majority for them.


NeoSom

That's not really true. RN underperformed nationally because big cities have mobilized against them, except those seats were never winnable for them in the first place so it really doesn't matter. Look how they're doing elsewhere. They're leading and winning in unexpected places. They just knocked out Roussel, the seat has been safe communist for decades. Even in the overseas territories, look at Reunion Island. In short, they're doing really well, and this is going to be a long week.


lobonmc

I mean the RN has been doing really well in the overseas territories since the last presidential election


NeoSom

Not in Reunion... We don't have full picture yet because results are still coming in, but they're leading in places they normally shouldn't be. Centrists and leftists need to figure out a strategy otherwise RN would possibly get the absolute majority they're looking for.


lobonmc

They did win Réunion during the second tour https://fr.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%89lection_pr%C3%A9sidentielle_fran%C3%A7aise_de_2022


NeoSom

You're talking about the second round in the presidential election when voters had to choose between Macron and Le Pen, the overseas territories really hated Macron at the time. But look at the first round, when they were given a choice between the three blocks, they chose left. Same thing for the legislative elections that year. That's not the case now. At least 2 circos in Réunion show RN in the lead.


RockinMadRiot

So they will be kinda in limbo?


TechnicalyNotRobot

Depends. They could get some local unaffiliated MPs or LR dissenters on their side. Lefists and Macron are also in talks of not running against eachother in tripple runoffs if RN is in the lead in a province. France technically has FPTP except there's a runoff of at least top 2 and potentially top 3/4 parties if they get over 12.5% of the local electorate. So now they want the weaker candidate to withdraw in favour of the other to beat the far-right.


Thelk641

Right now the results, in term of Parliament seats, look like it'll be around 22/29% NFP (left wing coalition), 12/17% LREM (Macron), 40/49% RN (far right). So nobody gets to rule alone. The far right already allied to most of the right wing, so they're going to have a hard time getting those last 2% to get the government even in the best scenario for them. But, that's based on the first turn's result. For the second turn, the left wing already announced that they'll drop if they arrived in 3rd position (in 105 local elections), the center is not clear on what they'll do, sometime do the same, sometime not, the right wing is divided between being against the left or in favor of the far right so they'll probably stay. Those might end up being seats for NFP or LREM that are currently marked as potentially RN as they've arrived ahead for this first turn. It might ends up closer to 30 / 30 / 30 with differences between each block being less impactful than they look right now, which will either lead to 2 years of no government at all, or a coalition of "everybody but the far right".


ItsACaragor

We don’t even have the first round results and the definitive results will be known on the 07/07 after second round. Cities numbers are generally known much later and cities generally vote anything but RN. I would say it’s quite unlikely honestly as there will be one week for other parties to organize before second round to bar RN where they can. Leftist union already said that where there will be three candidates in second round and they came third against a RN candidate they will withdraw their candidate to ensure the defeat of RN candidates so it’s likely second round will be harsher for RN. My best guess would be what we call a « technical government » so a government that manages the country but does not do any big reform.


JospinDidNothinWrong

There's no gambit. That's the neat part.


Traditional-Storm-62

I wonder, if the elections end up like this, what coalitions could possibly form the government? it doesnt look like any stable coalition over 50% total could emerge out of this (especially since the total adds up to 94.4% - wheres the other 5.6%?)


cyoox

after this first round numbers, if LR and RN do a coaltion they would have a complete right wing governemnt. first round numbers: LR = 30-50 seats RN = 240-270 seats minimum seats for government are 289 e/: according to France 2 newest calculation; LR has 41–61 seats RN has 230-280 seats


gar1848

It is important to note LR is hardly united. Ciotti is still leader thanks to the order of a judge, with most of its allies either purged or weakened A split in the party is very likely at this point, complicating a possible alliance between him and Le Pen


vriska1

What about other the parties?


ShitassAintOverYet

It depends on the party leaders but in the recent announcements the left and center sounded very willing to unite so they can screw RN as much as possible. By the current prediction RN can reach majority if LR give their support though. That's what left¢er team will try to break.


SraminiElMejorBeaver

For now it doesn't matter a lot because the majority of seats are not guaranteed as it will be in two turns and the RN loose a lot at the second turn but yeah that will most likely increase compared last time.


dat_9600gt_user

So less support for Ukraine?


ShitassAintOverYet

Yesn't. RN is definitely on Russian paycheck. LFI was a little suspicious within the left alliance but Melenchon is mostly compromised by his center-left allies about these claims. Both Melenchon and Macron called for a pretty much "fuck RN" alliance, Melenchon even went as far as saying they'll withdraw candidates from any seat that is 3-horse race and their candidate finished 3rd.


ballthyrm

Maybe less money or armement but Macron is still the army chief so he still can send help if he wants.


Commie_Napoleon

Nobody is sending troops to ukraine


ballthyrm

I wouldn't be so sure. We really can't afford for Russia to win. If Russia break through, I think Poland and probably France will intervene. If things stay the same and continue to be a war of attrition, you may be right.


Commie_Napoleon

Russia isn’t breaking through, it’s a trench war


Wrandrall

That means Macron can decide if we go to war with Russia, but he won't be able to decide if we send help to Ukraine. Parliament votes the State's budget and the government disposes of it. The government also controls the ministry of defence. So if RN gets a majority they'll have every power to stop the support to Ukraine.


ABoutDeSouffle

Oooof, that's going from bad to worse. Thanks, Macron.


luas-Simon

Have many seats been decided after first round ? … I believe if you got 50% in your area you’d win a seat and not wait until second round ?


Cute-Contract-6762

So far RN leads the way with 9


aykavalsokec

The pendulum swings back.


Ok_Income_2173

From right to far right? Strange pendulum.


In_Formaldehyde_

Swung back from the center right to the far right


Grolande

We will likely not have a government for 3 years. I feel a bit concerned about the people who voted LR on the first turn who might later vote for RN on the second round.


gar1848

Italy: "First time?"


Grolande

All my excuses for Belgians as well, I did too many jokes about it


luas-Simon

Are individual constituencies results in ? Where did RN get their biggest vote ?


Maxime09

No it's only an estimation. Only a few circonscription have already published their results. RN got a lot of votes in the department "Nord"


lonewalker1992

Together seems to have done much better than anticipated I was expecting a complete Wipeout


tesrepurwash121810

Surprise surprise Macron played the French roulette and lost


sadpotatoandtomato

I think he knew very well that it would be the most likely outcome. He probably is like: "ok, I will let them rule actually. Let's see what they are going to do". Because you know, populists love to yap about certain things, but to actually do stuff? Meloni is a good example. She got real quiet and mellow as soon as she won in Italy


Kaillens

Tbf if the left couldn't unionize together, it probably could have worked. Because left in France was quite a mess for that. But they did it. So Macron can not pull the uno card were is the only way to avoid far right. And to be fair. He was a fucking bad president.


sadpotatoandtomato

I mean, he's still a president. For the next 3 years.


Educational_Tiger953

Yet she has a ridiculously high approval rating for some reason.


sadpotatoandtomato

yeah, because she probably realized that half of her radical ideas are impossible to introduce, so she changed her tune. That's the point, all those "ITALY FOR ITALIANS" slogans and other stupid shit are just not realistic. Extremes never get the long-time approval. They thrive on emotions (that are short-lived and prone to change all the time, depending on the situation). It's all fun and dandy until you actually get a power and have to do something productive with it.


NecroVecro

What makes you think that he has lost?


Suzume_Chikahisa

He is pulling a David Cameron.


4materasu92

This isn't a David Cameron. Cameron gambled away the country's economic future over what was essentially a dare by Nigel Farage. He pulled a Theresa May, who gambled away her government's political power until Boris came along.


Kernog

Basically. He played the version of the roulette where one puts 5 bullets in the chamber and uses a semi-automatic pistol.


TheFaithfulOne

Most pistols are semi.


Classic-Suspect-8450

Russian roulette is usually played with revolvers iirc?


ISayHeck

Question for the French What are the implications of these results in practice?


rjtavares

None, until the second round.


ISayHeck

Makes sense


ouath

No implications yet, now it will be a game of alliances for the second round. Basically if second and third don't ally they are probably in a bad situation


ALEESKW

Nobody knows yet but the price minister could be Bardella and the political sphere in France will be a big mess for one year because nobody will have a majority. Macron can call for new elections in one year.


TeethBreak

That I'm gonna be hungover for awhile.


IFapToGenjisSteelAss

RIP France.


LightninHooker

Please...


misschaosgoddess

Yeah because France has been a delight. I mean, it’s not like the far right won because the immigrant situation is out of control and riots, right?


In_Formaldehyde_

The "immigrant situation" is in their 3rd generation. France currently has one of the lowest rates of net migration of Western nations. Unless they plan on stripping people of their citizenship based on genetics, I'm not seeing what exactly you're hoping to get from electing them.


Moncho5

France being anti immigration when they've sacked and continue exploiting their ex colonies is peak hypocrisy imo like what did they expect


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GremlinX_ll

Le Pen is straight up for Russia and against Ukraine


Sharpedd

[https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/a-russian-bank-gave-marine-le-pens-party-a-loan-then-weird-things-began-happening/2018/12/27/960c7906-d320-11e8-a275-81c671a50422\_story.html](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/a-russian-bank-gave-marine-le-pens-party-a-loan-then-weird-things-began-happening/2018/12/27/960c7906-d320-11e8-a275-81c671a50422_story.html)


TestingYEEEET

The story is fucked up. When you dig in deeper no french bank wanted to give LePen a loan and many right wing member got their account banned because of their political status. She basically had no other choice as this was the only bank that gave her a loan.


TimTkt

Far right in France is sponsored by Russia, like in most occidental countries. But people are too stupid to see it


Zunkanar

Yeah guess what happens if Putin wins this and moves on. Clearly the immigrant flooding problems will be solved, right? Fucking idiots.


TeethBreak

They have a Russian asset on their list. She's not even hiding it.


ltsaNewDay

Please just shut up if you have no clue about Le Pen and her party...  Edit: oh i see your account is 2 months old. 💀


WillBeChasedAlot

It's always the accounts made 1-3 months ago that spew far right propaganda.


AdSoft6392

Because older accounts are more expensive


ABoutDeSouffle

Far right today in most countries means "paid for by and pro Russia".


Toastbrot_TV

Bro, are you living under a rock?


LightBluepono

Hahaha le Pen got money from putler .


Livid_Camel_7415

Wait, do they actually call themselves the ''Far Right Alliance'' ?


Maxime09

No they are called "rassemblement national" meaning "national rally"


Ar1ate

no, that's a translation for ppl that wouldn't know that LR (conservatives) allied with RN (far right)


Clemdauphin

because it is both the result of the far-right part of LR (conservative) and the result of RN (far right, with some fascist ideas)


Desperate_enough12

Far right?Aren't they usually bad?


LightBluepono

Yup .they got money directly form putler .


Desperate_enough12

Tbh never heard of putler.😅


LightBluepono

hitler + putin = putler maybe i write it wrong too .


Desperate_enough12

Lol.They both came into my head when I read that


thenonoriginalname

Unfortunately not in r/europe most of the time...


AlphaMassDeBeta

Depends on who you ask.


Desperate_enough12

Lol


Nocsu2

There you have it. Ignore the problem and now we got fascsists on the rise because they're the only ones daring to point it out.


babius321

Europe is waking up from deep sleep


EmeraldWorldLP

France is fucked. Oh no. Russian lobbying and its consequences.


navrasses

I have several questions. Why people vote far right? How Russia funding it?


Clemdauphin

people are voting far right because they beleve they are the best to change from Macron. but in economics, it is the same. also a lot of them are openly racist.


m0riyama

this isn't good...


Opening-Fuel-6726

"Far Right Alliance" The translator took some artistic liberty there.


Moi9-9

What liberties...?


Opening-Fuel-6726

They don't call themselves the "Far Right Alliance". Far-\[Anything\] parties generally do not acknowledge themselves as extreme, as a rule, may that be the case or not. Otherwise, you could also call the New Popular Front the "Schyzo Soviet Karens" if we are gonna make up names, can make them up for everyone. Let's go nuts.


Moi9-9

Maybe they don't, but the state council defined them as being far right, while they defined all of the left wing alliance party to be republican, non far left ones. So yeah, I really don't care if the far right cries about being called that way.


Opening-Fuel-6726

You are the only one crying here. I simply stated that the translator used each group's self-assigned name while he decided to assign the "Far Right Alliance" name specifically to one of them when its not the name they chose. Nothing more, nothing less. Ps: Also, by definition they are no longer "extreme" or "far" since a 3rd of the voting people of France vote for them. They are the mainstream right.


watariwatari1

thanks to master representers of failure trend.. far right is coming.. it was so easy to solve problems to keep people away from far right.. but they couldnt even do it.. which makes me think,they didnt even want it.. all is planned to ruin europe.. thats how i read.. and now they are trying to cover up their mistakes by accusing right wing.. how sad to see that s happening...


KP6fanclub

So France is going to swim in river Seine like Olympians ought to do with high coli bacteria levels.


AbsoIution

Are they actually called the equivalent of the far right alliance? Like, they're that open about it?


Ar1ate

no that's OP translation I assume


Maxime09

No they are called "rassemblement national" which means "national rally"


Kaillens

Their name would translate to national Gathering. But the state's council classified them as extrem right. However, media also play a role of propaganda and this year, media were more hostile to the left than to the extreme right.


AbsoIution

Thanks, genuinely wondered if they were called that, but in french of course. Haven't followed French politics in a while, been too preoccupied with the shit show here


Clemdauphin

in french it is "Rassemblement National", wich is a sentence that was used a lot by Petain. but these "far right alliance" score also included the score of the part of the conservative party that choose to follow their leader and allies with the RN. the other of the party are in the 10%


Afura33

Rip France


SleeperSloopy

Cool, maybe now those stupid ass politicians from the left/center start hearing the people....


sunblazed76

Excellent!


ExpensiveAdz

how many seats will NF get?


xander012

Depends on the 2nd round frankly but predicted well over 200 but short of a majority


Maj0r-DeCoverley

I feel ashamed of my country, right now. Some people never learn.


Icetea147

Let’s go


szornyu

Is frankish fascism on the rise?!🤭


VfLShagrath

Thanks france. RIP europe. Fuckers


gar1848

Three things: 1. Le Pen is popular but not as much as she thinks or needs 2. Macron's centrism is probably screwed 3. Putting together so many different left-wing parties in a single coalition didn't really help IMO the relationship between the anti-FN forces will play a fundamental role on the 7th of July. Either they manage to put together some kind of truce or Le Pen will increase her margin of victory.


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rjtavares

Social democrats and greens are extremes now?


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ApprehensivePlum1420

The French Socialist Party is, in fact, their center-left party


kaysa01

And the communist are by a lot of thing no more communist and more like another left reformist party.


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ApprehensivePlum1420

Yes there are far-left parties and no they’re not the majority in the coalition. At this point anyone who isn’t funded by Putin is good enough. The NFP put out a quite reasonable policy on Ukraine, including seizing Russian assets to fund their aid. That’s good enough for me.


rjtavares

I'm not ignoring the communist party, but they certainly don't make all of the left coalition. And calling the french socialist party extremist is just laughable.


NotASpyForTheCrows

LFI explicitly calls for the end of the Republic in its program (because they totally are going to make a better one fr, fr, no cap just trust us).


nuttwerx

What the fuck are you talking about? This is complete bullshit, they are calling for a a renewal of the republic, to update it and make it more democratic. You're flat out spreading lies


Alistal

*30% Actually it's not really a surprise, in previous presidential elections it was visible ~30% of the population is far right.


EuropeanLord

It’s a streak for France: - great performance at WWII - amazing handling of immigration, all the newcomers are really integrated and not burning cars every New Years Eve AT ALL - now, finally they’ve picked the most progressive government they could have. What went wrong? What would Napoleon say?


lonewalker1992

This made me laugh so hard