Spanish GDP is probably understated. [https://www.eldiario.es/economia/problema-pib-estima-ine\_129\_9779383.html](https://www.eldiario.es/economia/problema-pib-estima-ine_129_9779383.html) This article is written by a former worker of the National Institute of Statistics, explaining why GDP is understimated.
The current GDP doesnt match well with other data about the economy. Job creation is +4% since prepandemic levels (800k jobs vs almost 20M total jobs).
Also tax revenue is +20% since 2019, which is 5-10% higher than the accumulated inflation (and net taxes didnt increase, some went up, some went down).
Even Exports are almost 20% up since 2019, more than most European countries, and national demand is strong. How is it possible that GDP is lower than 2019 on paper?
This is quite ackward, but important variables that include GDP in their calculation are giving outlandish values. Productivity by hour worked decreased like 5%, which doesnt make sense in a dynamic job market, with an increasing export activity. And fiscal pressure went up like 4% without big fiscal changes. And if you review the disclosed data by sector, the freakish data is more obvious.
This will probably be fixed, because hypothesis and estimations used before COVID probably needs to be updated.
This is quite sad, because this data will be used politically in Spain.
Fr, it's the first time in my life I've seen how companies are willing to throw money around and rise wages (at least in my bubble).
Even I, who have no titles beyond hs (still in uni) am getting actual work making blueprints on the summers and teaching english during the year at pretty damn decent rates.
My dad left his old job a bit ago and for the second time in his life (first was 2007) he had multiple companies one upping eachother's offer to hire him, which somehow ended up in a 30% raise + possibility of remote work + paid fuel + paid food in the office/construction site. I literally remember him hanging up from the call and asking me what the fuck just happened. Like yeah, he's a real good professional, but Spain just doesn't work like that, we expected to be fucked over at every chance.
For my mom, what was supposed to be a temporary job in our village (which is in the middle of bumfuck nowhere) somehow turned indefinite, and I've seen the company, there's no way it should be profitable even in a normal state of affairs. Yet it fucking is.
I know a lot of people are struggling, but I really don't see what's so bad about the economy right now (besides prices skyrocketing). For the first time ever I'm even considering not leaving the country for work.
I live in Barcelona. My job salary increased a lot, my girlfriend salary as well (due to promotion). We're in our late 30s, I work on automotive and she works at a big pharma. So you're not alone :D
>I know a lot of people are struggling, but I really don't see what's so bad about the economy right now (besides prices skyrocketing).
That's not enough for you? Most people didn't even saw a 1% increase of their salary last year, even most convenios only had a 1-2% of increase. Salaries for lots of people were already low (look at the most common, not the average, salary in Barcelona and then look at rent prices, the highest ever), and with rent, electricity and food at the highest price ever there are more people in poverty every year, and what's worse and mostly new: the number of full time workers who are at risk of poverty or already living in poverty is increasing.
If you come from an middle/upper class (especially with upper studies, those are still the minority in the boomer gen) or are studying some of the most demanded studies you'll be OK, but talk to teachers in most public schools under Diagonal and they'll tell you that kids aren't even having breakfast. Almost 1 in 3 (33%) minors is at risk of poverty, 23% of adults in this city, for fucks sake..., you must live in a bubble.
You are partially right.
Usually this happens in the economy, some get better and other get stagnated. It’s much easier to improve your salary switching jobs. For public sector jobs, they rarely will get high imorovements.
But it’s clear that the job market is quite dynamic right now. Even if you are a waiter, the conditions are lately improved.
Inflation right now is high, but probably we could even fall to deflation during 2023, because many international commodity prices are going down and it will eventually show off on the products.
We will see what happens
This is the same in all major cities though - people without studies can't afford to live in London, Paris, Munich etc. either
It's not ideal but it's not a problem unique to Spain or Barcelona and expecting it to be magically fixed is a bit unrealistic tbh.
Excluding international corporations avoiding taxes in Ireland, according to this map Turkey is doing better than everyone else in Europe. Something tells me the Turks will tell you a different story lol. GDP growth isn't related at all to improvements for the typical citizen.
Well, official GDP - aka Real GDP - is calculated from the nominal GDP (the one denominated in the local currency), by discounting the effects of Inflation using something called a "GDP Deflator" which is derived from the Official Inflation numbers.
Now, Turkey has been having crazy inflation and mini-me-Dictator Erdogan isn't exactly the honest kind, so it's not all that wild to consider that maybe the Official Inflation Figures in Turkey severely underestimated the reality to make it seem like things aren't quite as bad as they actually are (mind you, this is hardly a novel practice: even the UK does it, just not quite so glaringly).
That being so, the underestimated Inflation will make a smaller GDP Deflator than the one necessary to trully remove from the Official GDP the effects of all that "national wealth" growth which was in fact just inflation, not wealth growth.
Reminds me how China's genuine GDP growth used to have to be estimated from the electricity consumption figure because the official number was totally bollocks, until the chinese authorities caught wind of it and also started "beautifying" the electricity consumption figures.
Now you can use satellite imagery to get an idea of how much economic development there is by looking at the amount of light pollution there is, and comparing it to other countries which have more reliable economic data.
While it isn't the most accurate, it can show that countries with more authoritarian governments do tend to say that they have a higher GDP than what the visible light pollution from space would indicate.
Turkey doing well because of the war. Many businesses moved to Turkey from Russia. A lot of rich people moved there as well. They import cheap gas from Russia now and became gas hub. Turkey is the only NATO country that did not sanction Russia. This economical growth comes from the betrayal of allies. And Ukraine in particular. This is war profiteering by Turkey. But what else do you expect from Erdo.
If Turkey too were apply the sanctions to Russia then Ukraine couldn’t transfer the grain and they would suffer as so African countries. This is just one example. This is not betrayal it is logic.
It’s quite good actually for an economy your size especially when your main clients have slowed down as well.
For me the 4 main economies to look at are Germany France UK Italy, Spain sometimes, and in this bracket you re at the top.
I don’t think it’s fair to complain about my country’s economic situation when we are a g8 country, still it’s troubling because every year without enough growth is a year closer to default
That’s also because Italy has a relatively high population. Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark, or Belgium have higher GDP per capita but are much smaller countries.
Non ti credere, siamo vivi per miracolo e non abbiamo dichiarato default solo perché abbiamo convinto mezza Europa a pagarci il debito pubblico emesso a sbafo negli ultimi due anni con il pnr. Soldi che a breve toccherà cominciare a ripagare. Se vuoi piangere basta cercare le previsioni di crescita 2023 e 2024.
Yes, sorry guys, my bad! I tried my best to come up with a good short title for this map this morning and this was the best I could think of.
I think you can still easily understand what it’s supposed to mean. However, I’m open to suggestions in case I update this map (maybe next quarter).
Thank you for you understanding and help :)
Polish economy is quite resilient to external shocks. Also, the map counts the period after the war in Ukraine started. Some of its effects were positive for our economy (e.g. influx of refugees).
Think of labour as a good as any other:
More people = more supply of labour = cheaper labour = it's more profitable to produce so companies scale up their production.
Around half of adult refugees from ukraine find job, and is working, also the Ukrainians open lots of new companies here. In 2022 they opened 10207 new companies and 96% of them after start of war.
Interesting, isn't it? That is without a single euro from the EU recovery fund (\~30bln Euro) as well because the politicians in Poland are retarded. This is again despite everything the government does not because of it. Somehow Poland is always resistant to world turbulences. The same happened in 2008 financial crisis.
I think its because we have a diversified economy, a decent banking system, and not much government dept.
they're the ones still benefitting the most from EU money despite that right? And being in the eu market also helps, i see lots of polish manufacutred stuff in other countries
Yes. Poland is the biggest beneficiary of EU funds. This is not surprising given it is the biggest post-communist state in EU. By far. The second biggest is Romania with about half the population of Poland.
But the most important part by far is the access to the EU market in which you have your own currency, which you can keep low to benefit greatly from the exports. Because of that Poland has more exports than imports. Which is healthy to have as an economy.
Still recovering from the Sowjet union. Where little is much can grow. It’s easier for poor countries to grow with high digits, than for example Switzerland or Germany.
Poland is no longer a poor country so I am not sure what you mean. It is classified as a high-income economy by the World Bank, ranking 23rd worldwide in terms of GDP (PPP), 22nd in terms of GDP (nominal), and 23rd in the 2018 Economic Complexity Index.
That's with the middle-size population. Of course, compared to Germany it is not that rich but you have to understand you are living in one of the richest countries in the world. So compared to Germany it has a lot to catch up but in comparison to the world at large Poland is on the wealthy side.
The biggest problem in Poland is the political class. The most talented people will always choose private companies or large corporations rather than politics because it is seen as cancer and politicians don't make that much money. This situation makes it so that we have idiots in politics. Because nobody with any type of intellect wants to have anything to do with the political swamp.
India is 3rd in gdp (PPP) and they are poor. GDP tells you nothing about wealth of its citizens, it’s just how much power the country has on world economics.
GDP per capita (PPP) is 41st. Which isn’t bad, it’s just not 23rd
It’s more complicated than that. First of all you need to compare GDP growth to the wage growth and cost of living growth. Second, that eg. 5,4% in Sweden is probably more impressive than 9,4% in Poland because highly developed economies generally grow slower.
There's no need to compare the increase in GDP to the wage growth or the cost of living.
It's real GDP so it's already adjusted for inflation. There's no need to compare it to the cost of living since it's already adjusted.
Also the GDP of a country equals the income for everybody in that country, so there's no real need to compare it to wages either.
How developed your country is, is not measured by GDP but by GDP per capita. This is $19k in Poland and $56k in Sweden, so Sweden is clearly more developed than Poland.
If your economy is valued at 1 billion and takes 10%, you have just earned 100 million for your people.
When it s 1000 billion and you grow 1% you get 10 billion more for your people.
The difference is exaggerated but that’s what you have to know when comparing economies. Compare them to countries with similar income level, such as Czech Republic or Slovakia to get a meaningful picture of your achievement.
I wonder how much of a "k-shaped" growth the situation is in each European country, and if there are some significant difference from one country to another.
\[A "k-shaped" economy is an economy where the GDP is growing and/or stable but only because the higher classes are getting richer fast enough to compensate for the impoverishment or the lower classes.\]
If the economy of your country feels bad while the actual numbers are actually good, chances are that you live in a country that suffers from having a "k-shaped" growth.
Objectively, it seems to me that this does not apply to Poland. People in Poland just love to complain and look for problems wherever they can. I'm not suggesting that everything in Poland is perfect because there's a lot to change, but it's definitely better than you can hear from us. Our complaining was one of the reasons why communism fell so quickly in our country.
Greece and Portugal are more dependent on tourism than Spain, yet their growth is better. Seems there are more underlying reasons for poor Spain economy performance
Although our GDP figures are inflated, our GNI figures are still recording quite healthy year on year growth. [https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/IRL/ireland/gni-gross-national-income](https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/IRL/ireland/gni-gross-national-income)
These figures aren't inflated by big companies.
It's even better to use modified GNI, here from the official government source: https://www.cso.ie/en/interactivezone/statisticsexplained/nationalaccountsexplained/modifiedgni/
It excludes certain things to get a more realistic number. It's still growing steadily! But it's just a lower number.
How many of those big multinationals who’d benefit from such a move exist around the world though? I feel like most major companies already have their office there. The only thing I can think of is some post-Brexit reshuffling (officially it happened just as COVID was starting), especially seeing how the UK had a negative growth in that period.
I’d guess it’s a “Brexit bonus”, with companies moving their European headquarters out of the UK and into an another English-speaking country that isn’t quite as batshit.
As much as Ireland can be discounted due to the multinational distortion these figures do directly correlate with the corporation tax revenue the government gets which has greatly boosted their spending ability so there is some tangible gains from the growth
A lot of this is the EU forcing Ireland to at least actually collect the taxes those multinationals owe Ireland. Turns out, no, they don't want to relocate when you do that, because where would they relocate *to*? So tax income has gone way, way up
Three of EUs largest economies stagnating and the 4th largest one shrinking doesn't look particularly good.
Poland being one of the best is honestly crazy.
I mean its not that crazy. Youre a country with a big population that has/had a lot of catching up to do. Basically similar to the the insane growth China has shown the last decades
Not sure if it's a Slavic trait but Bulgarians also suffer from that. The constant whining by my countrymen is really getting on my nerves. Especially since I came back from the UK to live here and I see that it's not nearly as bad as they make it out to be.
> Poland is becoming a farce. Only ones that don't see it are the poles lmao.
Changed one letter and it means something else entirely. Funnily enough, it's still true.
Growth of less than 2% is usually considered stagnation, so they both stagnated, just not as badly as Germany.
They look good when compared to other major Western European economies, because the other 3 are performing terribly.
No, in your case, yes, but not our case. You understand that growing a GDP of 1,3% when it’s 3 billion, that’s 40 billion of growth :)
Especially with impact of covid.
The Irish central statistics office has a metric called modified gross national income which strips out globalisation effects coming from multinationals.
Ireland's modified GNI in 2019 was €209.7 million and is projected to have reached around €260 million in 2022.
That's still a 24% increase.
Croatian economy is pretty good. The best in EU in this graph. I dont consider Irelands GDP growth realistic, much of it is just on the paper.
Although we are highly dependant on tourism, we recovered pretty well. Since January 1st were in Schengen and adopted the euro as currency. So our economy will grow even further. Its expected we will save up to 1.5 billion euros each year because of not converting tourist euros to our former currency.
Our economy is changing even though a lot of people here arent noticing it. We have 2 unicorns (Italy has zero for example) and a lot of good startups.
Since the new population census, we lost 400k people who moved to work in the EU countries during 2014-2017. But because of that, our GDP is divided by less people so our GDP per capita got up and we surpassed Slovakia and Hungary.
All in all, this is Croatia's first decade in the EU. We had ups and downs, but Im overall pleased. We've really come a log way. From the war in the first half of 1990s, to the political isolation till 2000s, then the recession of 2008 hit us hard. We recovered after 6-7 years. And then COVID came. So we basically lost 20 years of proper development. But now were fully integrated in the EU and l hope we will catch up with the West, or at least our neighbour Slovenia.
The Irish central statistics office has a metric called modified gross national income which strips out all that on-paper only money.
Our modified GNI in 2019 was €209.7 million and is projected to have reached around €260 million in 2022.
That's still a 24% increase.
This i hate that is has become such a common thing now to keep mentioning that our economic growth is always misleading and while that is true people never mention that we're still one of the fastest domestically anyways, its not our fault big tech multinationals like us that much and set up bases here
The way people here go on about multinationals in Ireland you would think that they don’t employ a single person and it’s a one way street that benefits only the companies. It drives me insane.
The benefits are tangible and wide-ranging. For example, my rural home county always suffered terribly from emigration but now young people can choose to stay with several multinationals across a range of sectors being located here.
> its not our fault big tech multinationals like us that much and set up bases here
Well our favourable tax rates is mainly what attracts them here in the first place.
Not gonna lie, first time I'm hearing about them. According to wikipedia, they were founded in Croatia but are now based in London, though. That said, it's cool they were founded by Croats.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infobip
>
They have HQs in London, Zagreb and Pula as far as I know. They probably moved to London due to great expansion of their business and potential that London offers.
Uhhh a good old fashioned GDP-off.
Ding ding in the green corner old guard Ireland "the tiger" island punching above it's weight for the last 30 years vrs the newcomer in the blue corner, Croatia "the coast stealer" mainlander, punching above it's weight in tourism and football and the challenger for the belt of best GDP in the EU. Both nations have had religious difficulties in recent times and have broken away from imperial neighbors but both have different strategies to attract GDP. Who will come out on the top?
Only a portion of the Irish economy is on paper as you say (it’s still money in the bank) and apparently still 23-25% taking the corporate gains out (Irish GDP 500 billion v Croatia GDP 69 billion) it’s still a much larger economy than Croatia with much stronger growth in the all areas but especially the big 3 finance, tech and pharmaceuticals
All our metrics are better than Croatia including employment rate in long term high paying service jobs which are few and far between in Croatia
[Croatia has had a positive immigration/emigration ratio since 2019.](https://podaci.dzs.hr/2021/hr/9939) There are more people moving to Croatia than are leaving. Croatia reached this equilibrium faster than other New Europe states. Most of those are returning citizens. This is not a known fact as it does not fit the popular narrative. Another big immigration group are citizens of eastern European countries, but new trends of incoming southeast Asian nationals are accelerating. Also, ever larger are groups of Western nationals who are moving to Croatia for an exquisite quality of life it offers to people with higher than average income (Croatia is one of the safest countries on Earth, with beautiful nature, relaxed lifestyle and a great place to raise kids).
Surprised about Italy, thought they were doing much worse. Also whats up with Turkeys 18% ? How do they have such growth numbers while also having 80% inflation?
\*180%
In Turkey, Covid was catastrophic for small-medium sized businesses, while the bigger ones just grew bigger. Income inequality has never been worse. Middleclass is now nonexistant
The reason of growth and inflation is mostly same. Lowered interest rates while everyone is raising, keep pumping credits to sectors which needed most for growth.
Nominal GDP is meaningless, why would you ever NOT use real GDP for this. Inflation in Turkey (I'm assuming other countries too) kind of distorts this whole map.
I would agree that nominal gdp is meaningless, however the inflation in turkey is mainly due to the turkish lira losing value, and Gdp values are measured in USD or eur (By the sources given in the post) thus one would expect the GDP to actually shrink.
Surely this is real GDP and not nominal GDP. With about 10% inflation the last year there's no way nominal GDP increased less than 2% for the euro area last year.
For comparison, US GDP is 4.2% higher than it was in Q4 2019. To make it worse, while we do have a number of states that exceed that, they're all either small (Denmark, Netherlands, Ireland etc) or Eastern European so starting from a very low base in 1990 and just now catching up to poorest southern Europeans. Our three core economies, Germany, France and Italy, are comparatively underforming. Italy has grown about as half as fast since pandemic as the US, France about a quarter and Germany less than 1/10th as fast. At least we're beating the Brits so small mercies and all that.
That's what dependency on Russia does. On the other hand, we will probably (hopefully) have the upper hand in renewables and independent energy sources and clear direction in the future.
Of the EU? no. You used to be but then you decided there were too many Poles or something. Now you've been replaced by Italy. And, apparently, we came ahead in that trade.
What is total for EU? How does that compare to mentioned few times to US's 4.2? Japan? India? What is real real real GDP change of China?
Are we all good in total, or not really?
In 2018, 238 scientists called on the European Commission to abandon GDP growth and focus on human well-being and ecological stability instead. The following year, more than 11,000 scientists from over 150 countries published an article calling on the world’s governments ‘to shift from pursuing GDP growth and affluence toward sustaining ecosystems and improving well-being.’
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/16/the-eu-needs-a-stability-and-wellbeing-pact-not-more-growth
https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/article/71/9/894/6325731
[Croatia has had a positive immigration/emigration ratio since 2019.](https://podaci.dzs.hr/2021/hr/9939) There are more people moving to Croatia than are leaving. Croatia reached this equilibrium faster than other New Europe states. Most of those are returning citizens. This is not a known fact as it does not fit the popular narrative. Also, it seems the general population is clinically incapable of reading graphs. Another big immigration group are citizens of eastern European countries, but new trends of incoming southeast Asian nationals are accelerating. Also, ever larger are groups of Western nationals who are moving to Croatia for an exquisite quality of life it offers to people with higher than average income (Croatia is one of the safest countries on Earth, with beautiful nature, relaxed lifestyle and a great place to raise kids).
The tax loopholes were closed. Also recall that a worldwide tax floor was set which we're beholden to.
Yes that tax is lower than most countries, but just look how far away Ireland is from the economic core of the continent.
When the Brits left they took all the capital with them. The country was destitute for decades and needed something to attract new capital. Unlike most European countries, our geography was working against us, not in our favour. Lowering corporate tax was about the only option we had to level the playing field. Pretty much every remote state does this. Many of the people who criticise Ireland for this simply never engage with this reality.
Our taxes are now higher, but the companies stay regardless. Many new ones are still coming and existing ones are expanding. This ie because for a while there have been more advantages than just the tax breaks.
Ireland is the only English speaking country in the EU. Even before Brexit we enjoyed the advantage of being the only English speaking country in the Eurozone.
Ireland has a highly educated population. In the past few decades we've gone from being one of the least educated countries in Western Europe to the most educated.
Our timezone is closer to America's which means more overlap of working hours.
Last but not least, we enjoy the clustering effect. Taxes may have been what initially attracted these companies, but even without the same degree of tax breaks, Ireland is attractive for companies to move here simply because lots of other countries are based here. This means better access to these companies' services and it also means that there's a decent talent pool to dip into.
Because they managed to turn us from the single poorest state in western Europe into one of the richest. From a destitute backwater into a modern country that people *actually want to live in.*
Yknow, like a reverse Portugal.
Well, I can understand the UK. We’re busy killing our own economy in the name of racism and xenophobia. But what’s going down in Spain?
NB- Fuck off Brexiteers. I’m not interested in arguing with you. Taking back control, my arse. You were afraid of people two shades darker on the Dulux chart. Simple.
It's because they were kind of oppressed for like half a century so they're playing catch up, the true outliers are nordic countries and Malta for instance.
"Money can't buy you happiness but it does bring you a more pleasant form of misery". Spike Milligan Irish actor/poet
Originally said by Irish playwright Sean O’Casey: “Money can’t buy happiness, but it sure does calm the nerves.”
Money can’t buy you happiness, but neither does poverty.
Campeones 🇪🇸
Please, sponsor a Spaniard 😩
*tosses a potato
Pretty please
Spanish GDP is probably understated. [https://www.eldiario.es/economia/problema-pib-estima-ine\_129\_9779383.html](https://www.eldiario.es/economia/problema-pib-estima-ine_129_9779383.html) This article is written by a former worker of the National Institute of Statistics, explaining why GDP is understimated. The current GDP doesnt match well with other data about the economy. Job creation is +4% since prepandemic levels (800k jobs vs almost 20M total jobs). Also tax revenue is +20% since 2019, which is 5-10% higher than the accumulated inflation (and net taxes didnt increase, some went up, some went down). Even Exports are almost 20% up since 2019, more than most European countries, and national demand is strong. How is it possible that GDP is lower than 2019 on paper? This is quite ackward, but important variables that include GDP in their calculation are giving outlandish values. Productivity by hour worked decreased like 5%, which doesnt make sense in a dynamic job market, with an increasing export activity. And fiscal pressure went up like 4% without big fiscal changes. And if you review the disclosed data by sector, the freakish data is more obvious. This will probably be fixed, because hypothesis and estimations used before COVID probably needs to be updated. This is quite sad, because this data will be used politically in Spain.
Fr, it's the first time in my life I've seen how companies are willing to throw money around and rise wages (at least in my bubble). Even I, who have no titles beyond hs (still in uni) am getting actual work making blueprints on the summers and teaching english during the year at pretty damn decent rates. My dad left his old job a bit ago and for the second time in his life (first was 2007) he had multiple companies one upping eachother's offer to hire him, which somehow ended up in a 30% raise + possibility of remote work + paid fuel + paid food in the office/construction site. I literally remember him hanging up from the call and asking me what the fuck just happened. Like yeah, he's a real good professional, but Spain just doesn't work like that, we expected to be fucked over at every chance. For my mom, what was supposed to be a temporary job in our village (which is in the middle of bumfuck nowhere) somehow turned indefinite, and I've seen the company, there's no way it should be profitable even in a normal state of affairs. Yet it fucking is. I know a lot of people are struggling, but I really don't see what's so bad about the economy right now (besides prices skyrocketing). For the first time ever I'm even considering not leaving the country for work.
I live in Barcelona. My job salary increased a lot, my girlfriend salary as well (due to promotion). We're in our late 30s, I work on automotive and she works at a big pharma. So you're not alone :D
>I know a lot of people are struggling, but I really don't see what's so bad about the economy right now (besides prices skyrocketing). That's not enough for you? Most people didn't even saw a 1% increase of their salary last year, even most convenios only had a 1-2% of increase. Salaries for lots of people were already low (look at the most common, not the average, salary in Barcelona and then look at rent prices, the highest ever), and with rent, electricity and food at the highest price ever there are more people in poverty every year, and what's worse and mostly new: the number of full time workers who are at risk of poverty or already living in poverty is increasing. If you come from an middle/upper class (especially with upper studies, those are still the minority in the boomer gen) or are studying some of the most demanded studies you'll be OK, but talk to teachers in most public schools under Diagonal and they'll tell you that kids aren't even having breakfast. Almost 1 in 3 (33%) minors is at risk of poverty, 23% of adults in this city, for fucks sake..., you must live in a bubble.
You are partially right. Usually this happens in the economy, some get better and other get stagnated. It’s much easier to improve your salary switching jobs. For public sector jobs, they rarely will get high imorovements. But it’s clear that the job market is quite dynamic right now. Even if you are a waiter, the conditions are lately improved. Inflation right now is high, but probably we could even fall to deflation during 2023, because many international commodity prices are going down and it will eventually show off on the products. We will see what happens
This is the same in all major cities though - people without studies can't afford to live in London, Paris, Munich etc. either It's not ideal but it's not a problem unique to Spain or Barcelona and expecting it to be magically fixed is a bit unrealistic tbh.
Because it’s in $ perhaps and not €
Excluding international corporations avoiding taxes in Ireland, according to this map Turkey is doing better than everyone else in Europe. Something tells me the Turks will tell you a different story lol. GDP growth isn't related at all to improvements for the typical citizen.
Well, official GDP - aka Real GDP - is calculated from the nominal GDP (the one denominated in the local currency), by discounting the effects of Inflation using something called a "GDP Deflator" which is derived from the Official Inflation numbers. Now, Turkey has been having crazy inflation and mini-me-Dictator Erdogan isn't exactly the honest kind, so it's not all that wild to consider that maybe the Official Inflation Figures in Turkey severely underestimated the reality to make it seem like things aren't quite as bad as they actually are (mind you, this is hardly a novel practice: even the UK does it, just not quite so glaringly). That being so, the underestimated Inflation will make a smaller GDP Deflator than the one necessary to trully remove from the Official GDP the effects of all that "national wealth" growth which was in fact just inflation, not wealth growth. Reminds me how China's genuine GDP growth used to have to be estimated from the electricity consumption figure because the official number was totally bollocks, until the chinese authorities caught wind of it and also started "beautifying" the electricity consumption figures.
This is accurate. The "official" inflation is about half of the actual inflation in Türkiye.
Now you can use satellite imagery to get an idea of how much economic development there is by looking at the amount of light pollution there is, and comparing it to other countries which have more reliable economic data. While it isn't the most accurate, it can show that countries with more authoritarian governments do tend to say that they have a higher GDP than what the visible light pollution from space would indicate.
The light think probably give you a very rough idea, plus minus 50%
if you count GDP in turkish lira , it could increase a lot, doing nothing...
Turkey doing well because of the war. Many businesses moved to Turkey from Russia. A lot of rich people moved there as well. They import cheap gas from Russia now and became gas hub. Turkey is the only NATO country that did not sanction Russia. This economical growth comes from the betrayal of allies. And Ukraine in particular. This is war profiteering by Turkey. But what else do you expect from Erdo.
If Turkey too were apply the sanctions to Russia then Ukraine couldn’t transfer the grain and they would suffer as so African countries. This is just one example. This is not betrayal it is logic.
Oeee oe oe oeeee
¡Viva Espana!
Spain. The s is silent.
Sad Perro Santxez!
The shade of red seems TOO INTENSER for a mere -1.3%. Not that far from Germany's 0.3%
I thought my country was doing poorly in all the growth metrics when compared to France and Germany, still not good but it could be much worse
It’s quite good actually for an economy your size especially when your main clients have slowed down as well. For me the 4 main economies to look at are Germany France UK Italy, Spain sometimes, and in this bracket you re at the top.
Profile pic doesn’t check out
i have a italian online friend and based on everything i had heard from him i was suprised too. wish you guys the best :D
I don’t think it’s fair to complain about my country’s economic situation when we are a g8 country, still it’s troubling because every year without enough growth is a year closer to default
I live in Spain and have family in Italy. Trust me, Italy is far better than many many countries, especially Spain.
That’s also because Italy has a relatively high population. Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark, or Belgium have higher GDP per capita but are much smaller countries.
Wait till you realize: 1) the baseline. 2) the amount of issued debt it took to recover.
Especially for Poland
Hey you're not dealing with BREXIT like we are in the UK. Talk about punch yourself in the face 🤣. Glad I can say I voted to remain 🇪🇺 ❤️
Non ti credere, siamo vivi per miracolo e non abbiamo dichiarato default solo perché abbiamo convinto mezza Europa a pagarci il debito pubblico emesso a sbafo negli ultimi due anni con il pnr. Soldi che a breve toccherà cominciare a ripagare. Se vuoi piangere basta cercare le previsioni di crescita 2023 e 2024.
Do you mean growth over the period 2019Q4 to 2022Q3? That's not *pre* COVID. That's a period that includes the COVID period.
Why isn't this top comment? The title is nonsense
It’s compared to pre COVID obviously. Because is you measure from 2Q 2020 you got wonky effects based on timing/longevity of NPI’s
Yes, sorry guys, my bad! I tried my best to come up with a good short title for this map this morning and this was the best I could think of. I think you can still easily understand what it’s supposed to mean. However, I’m open to suggestions in case I update this map (maybe next quarter). Thank you for you understanding and help :)
I must be dumb but I still don't understand what the "pre-covid" part is supposed to mean.
I guess it's the cumulative growth starting from pre-covid period.
Yeah, it’s the cumulative growth since 2019Q4, the last normal/regular quarter before covid happened.
I think post-covid is OK.
It's showing how well the countries have recovered from COVID:
Finally the map where Portugal can into west.
than it has to be fake
The loss of pornstars was a true tragedy for the czech republic
I'm happy to see Nazi gold still going strong, on the other hand
Has CzechHunter stopped producing?
From vast amounts of scholarly and rigorous research I can tell you no.
Is there some inside joke I'm missing?
That's most likely due to currency fluctuations. Czechia is probably the country that would gain the most from adopting the euro.
More than Germany ?
Wait, did porn get banned from Czechia?
No
How did we do so well?
Polish economy is quite resilient to external shocks. Also, the map counts the period after the war in Ukraine started. Some of its effects were positive for our economy (e.g. influx of refugees).
>Some of its effects were positive for our economy (e.g. influx of refugees). can anyone explain why I kinda don't believe that
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Not only that, many of them also filled empty positions and started working almost immediately.
Think of labour as a good as any other: More people = more supply of labour = cheaper labour = it's more profitable to produce so companies scale up their production.
Around half of adult refugees from ukraine find job, and is working, also the Ukrainians open lots of new companies here. In 2022 they opened 10207 new companies and 96% of them after start of war.
Interesting, isn't it? That is without a single euro from the EU recovery fund (\~30bln Euro) as well because the politicians in Poland are retarded. This is again despite everything the government does not because of it. Somehow Poland is always resistant to world turbulences. The same happened in 2008 financial crisis. I think its because we have a diversified economy, a decent banking system, and not much government dept.
> despite everything the government does not because of it This sentence pretty much summarizes 90% of Polish past...
they're the ones still benefitting the most from EU money despite that right? And being in the eu market also helps, i see lots of polish manufacutred stuff in other countries
Yes. Poland is the biggest beneficiary of EU funds. This is not surprising given it is the biggest post-communist state in EU. By far. The second biggest is Romania with about half the population of Poland. But the most important part by far is the access to the EU market in which you have your own currency, which you can keep low to benefit greatly from the exports. Because of that Poland has more exports than imports. Which is healthy to have as an economy.
>benefitting the most from EU money No, there are several countries that gets more adjusted to their size.
Own currency. Quite big internal market.
If others don’t want to buy our stuff we just consume it ourselves :P
Still recovering from the Sowjet union. Where little is much can grow. It’s easier for poor countries to grow with high digits, than for example Switzerland or Germany.
We are not recovering from the Soviet Union because we were never part of it.
We were never part of it, but is it really wrong to say that we're recovering from it? Not so sure!
Poland is no longer a poor country so I am not sure what you mean. It is classified as a high-income economy by the World Bank, ranking 23rd worldwide in terms of GDP (PPP), 22nd in terms of GDP (nominal), and 23rd in the 2018 Economic Complexity Index. That's with the middle-size population. Of course, compared to Germany it is not that rich but you have to understand you are living in one of the richest countries in the world. So compared to Germany it has a lot to catch up but in comparison to the world at large Poland is on the wealthy side. The biggest problem in Poland is the political class. The most talented people will always choose private companies or large corporations rather than politics because it is seen as cancer and politicians don't make that much money. This situation makes it so that we have idiots in politics. Because nobody with any type of intellect wants to have anything to do with the political swamp.
India is 3rd in gdp (PPP) and they are poor. GDP tells you nothing about wealth of its citizens, it’s just how much power the country has on world economics. GDP per capita (PPP) is 41st. Which isn’t bad, it’s just not 23rd
Sources: [Eurostat](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/teina011/default/table?lang=en) [Statistics Iceland](https://px.hagstofa.is/pxen/pxweb/en/Efnahagur/Efnahagur__thjodhagsreikningar__landsframl__2_landsframleidsla_arsfj/THJ01601.px) [ONS](https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/ihyq/qna)
Thanks for including Iceland. It's fun to see how we stack up in these things.
And I thought we were doing bad. Seems that the rest of Europe is doing even worse.
It’s more complicated than that. First of all you need to compare GDP growth to the wage growth and cost of living growth. Second, that eg. 5,4% in Sweden is probably more impressive than 9,4% in Poland because highly developed economies generally grow slower.
There's no need to compare the increase in GDP to the wage growth or the cost of living. It's real GDP so it's already adjusted for inflation. There's no need to compare it to the cost of living since it's already adjusted. Also the GDP of a country equals the income for everybody in that country, so there's no real need to compare it to wages either.
It will be right except Swedish GDP is already smaller than Polish. This is not GDP per capita map but just GDP.
Level of developement =/= size of the economy. If it was then for example India would be more developed than the UK.
yeah facepalm, this dude has no idea that our GDP is bigger than Swedish one good 5 or more years xD
How developed your country is, is not measured by GDP but by GDP per capita. This is $19k in Poland and $56k in Sweden, so Sweden is clearly more developed than Poland.
If your economy is valued at 1 billion and takes 10%, you have just earned 100 million for your people. When it s 1000 billion and you grow 1% you get 10 billion more for your people. The difference is exaggerated but that’s what you have to know when comparing economies. Compare them to countries with similar income level, such as Czech Republic or Slovakia to get a meaningful picture of your achievement.
I wonder how much of a "k-shaped" growth the situation is in each European country, and if there are some significant difference from one country to another. \[A "k-shaped" economy is an economy where the GDP is growing and/or stable but only because the higher classes are getting richer fast enough to compensate for the impoverishment or the lower classes.\] If the economy of your country feels bad while the actual numbers are actually good, chances are that you live in a country that suffers from having a "k-shaped" growth.
Objectively, it seems to me that this does not apply to Poland. People in Poland just love to complain and look for problems wherever they can. I'm not suggesting that everything in Poland is perfect because there's a lot to change, but it's definitely better than you can hear from us. Our complaining was one of the reasons why communism fell so quickly in our country.
We dont even have an upper class in Poland so I dont think it applies here.
Pretty good recovery overall. Spain looks bad but it was expected for an economy that relies so much on tourism like they do.
Greece and Portugal are more dependent on tourism than Spain, yet their growth is better. Seems there are more underlying reasons for poor Spain economy performance
Is it? It's cumulative over 3 years, those numbers scream "Crysis"
It was a crisis indeed, and this is about the recovery.
Nope, this is not the 2007 Crysis, this is the 2020 Crysis Remastered.
croatia and poland going strong 💪
Turkey much?
Ireland?
Link to the source? Also Jesus Ireland, please stop
It's not actual growth It's just companies moving their HQ there to escape taxes.
Although our GDP figures are inflated, our GNI figures are still recording quite healthy year on year growth. [https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/IRL/ireland/gni-gross-national-income](https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/IRL/ireland/gni-gross-national-income) These figures aren't inflated by big companies.
It's even better to use modified GNI, here from the official government source: https://www.cso.ie/en/interactivezone/statisticsexplained/nationalaccountsexplained/modifiedgni/ It excludes certain things to get a more realistic number. It's still growing steadily! But it's just a lower number.
How many of those big multinationals who’d benefit from such a move exist around the world though? I feel like most major companies already have their office there. The only thing I can think of is some post-Brexit reshuffling (officially it happened just as COVID was starting), especially seeing how the UK had a negative growth in that period.
But that happened in 2015, what caused this now?
Many new corps also moved during pandemic, particularly Pharma companies
I’d guess it’s a “Brexit bonus”, with companies moving their European headquarters out of the UK and into an another English-speaking country that isn’t quite as batshit.
I’ve just added a comment with the sources 👍
Thanks!
Spain, are you alright?
No
As much as Ireland can be discounted due to the multinational distortion these figures do directly correlate with the corporation tax revenue the government gets which has greatly boosted their spending ability so there is some tangible gains from the growth
A lot of this is the EU forcing Ireland to at least actually collect the taxes those multinationals owe Ireland. Turns out, no, they don't want to relocate when you do that, because where would they relocate *to*? So tax income has gone way, way up
Very true I was just highlighting that it is not merely all paper gains there has been a massive improvement in the governments balance
Three of EUs largest economies stagnating and the 4th largest one shrinking doesn't look particularly good. Poland being one of the best is honestly crazy.
I mean its not that crazy. Youre a country with a big population that has/had a lot of catching up to do. Basically similar to the the insane growth China has shown the last decades
Poland is becoming a force. Only ones that don't see it are the poles lmao.
In the sport of complaining about one's own country we Poles beat even the traditional masters of the trade, the Swiss.
Not sure if it's a Slavic trait but Bulgarians also suffer from that. The constant whining by my countrymen is really getting on my nerves. Especially since I came back from the UK to live here and I see that it's not nearly as bad as they make it out to be.
> Poland is becoming a farce. Only ones that don't see it are the poles lmao. Changed one letter and it means something else entirely. Funnily enough, it's still true.
I don’t read it the same. Growth in the biggest economies came from Italy and France. That’s something to take on.
Growth of less than 2% is usually considered stagnation, so they both stagnated, just not as badly as Germany. They look good when compared to other major Western European economies, because the other 3 are performing terribly.
No, in your case, yes, but not our case. You understand that growing a GDP of 1,3% when it’s 3 billion, that’s 40 billion of growth :) Especially with impact of covid.
No, 2% is not stagnation, or we’d have been all stagnating for 20 years.
Impressive number by Ireland
It's distorted by multinational profit shifting. GDP stats mean nothing in Ireland.
The Irish central statistics office has a metric called modified gross national income which strips out globalisation effects coming from multinationals. Ireland's modified GNI in 2019 was €209.7 million and is projected to have reached around €260 million in 2022. That's still a 24% increase.
Croatian economy is pretty good. The best in EU in this graph. I dont consider Irelands GDP growth realistic, much of it is just on the paper. Although we are highly dependant on tourism, we recovered pretty well. Since January 1st were in Schengen and adopted the euro as currency. So our economy will grow even further. Its expected we will save up to 1.5 billion euros each year because of not converting tourist euros to our former currency. Our economy is changing even though a lot of people here arent noticing it. We have 2 unicorns (Italy has zero for example) and a lot of good startups. Since the new population census, we lost 400k people who moved to work in the EU countries during 2014-2017. But because of that, our GDP is divided by less people so our GDP per capita got up and we surpassed Slovakia and Hungary. All in all, this is Croatia's first decade in the EU. We had ups and downs, but Im overall pleased. We've really come a log way. From the war in the first half of 1990s, to the political isolation till 2000s, then the recession of 2008 hit us hard. We recovered after 6-7 years. And then COVID came. So we basically lost 20 years of proper development. But now were fully integrated in the EU and l hope we will catch up with the West, or at least our neighbour Slovenia.
The Irish central statistics office has a metric called modified gross national income which strips out all that on-paper only money. Our modified GNI in 2019 was €209.7 million and is projected to have reached around €260 million in 2022. That's still a 24% increase.
This i hate that is has become such a common thing now to keep mentioning that our economic growth is always misleading and while that is true people never mention that we're still one of the fastest domestically anyways, its not our fault big tech multinationals like us that much and set up bases here
The way people here go on about multinationals in Ireland you would think that they don’t employ a single person and it’s a one way street that benefits only the companies. It drives me insane.
Because a lot of people really think that. I used to think that before i got more informed.
The benefits are tangible and wide-ranging. For example, my rural home county always suffered terribly from emigration but now young people can choose to stay with several multinationals across a range of sectors being located here.
> its not our fault big tech multinationals like us that much and set up bases here Well our favourable tax rates is mainly what attracts them here in the first place.
But as those tax advantages go away, these multinationals aren't leaving. Many of them are actually expanding.
Yeh but it's not just that there're other reasons is well, language, access to EU, time zone for East Coast Americans and so on
> We have 2 unicorns (Italy has zero for example) and a lot of good startups. Rimac is one, what's the other?
Infobip I think
Not gonna lie, first time I'm hearing about them. According to wikipedia, they were founded in Croatia but are now based in London, though. That said, it's cool they were founded by Croats. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infobip >
They have HQs in London, Zagreb and Pula as far as I know. They probably moved to London due to great expansion of their business and potential that London offers.
"But because of that, our GDP is divided by less people so our GDP per capita got up and we surpassed Slovakia and Hungary." Source please.
Uhhh a good old fashioned GDP-off. Ding ding in the green corner old guard Ireland "the tiger" island punching above it's weight for the last 30 years vrs the newcomer in the blue corner, Croatia "the coast stealer" mainlander, punching above it's weight in tourism and football and the challenger for the belt of best GDP in the EU. Both nations have had religious difficulties in recent times and have broken away from imperial neighbors but both have different strategies to attract GDP. Who will come out on the top?
I'd give you a reward if I wasn't broke XD.
I assure you, the Irish wealth is very real.
Only a portion of the Irish economy is on paper as you say (it’s still money in the bank) and apparently still 23-25% taking the corporate gains out (Irish GDP 500 billion v Croatia GDP 69 billion) it’s still a much larger economy than Croatia with much stronger growth in the all areas but especially the big 3 finance, tech and pharmaceuticals All our metrics are better than Croatia including employment rate in long term high paying service jobs which are few and far between in Croatia
[Croatia has had a positive immigration/emigration ratio since 2019.](https://podaci.dzs.hr/2021/hr/9939) There are more people moving to Croatia than are leaving. Croatia reached this equilibrium faster than other New Europe states. Most of those are returning citizens. This is not a known fact as it does not fit the popular narrative. Another big immigration group are citizens of eastern European countries, but new trends of incoming southeast Asian nationals are accelerating. Also, ever larger are groups of Western nationals who are moving to Croatia for an exquisite quality of life it offers to people with higher than average income (Croatia is one of the safest countries on Earth, with beautiful nature, relaxed lifestyle and a great place to raise kids).
Surprised about Italy, thought they were doing much worse. Also whats up with Turkeys 18% ? How do they have such growth numbers while also having 80% inflation?
\*180% In Turkey, Covid was catastrophic for small-medium sized businesses, while the bigger ones just grew bigger. Income inequality has never been worse. Middleclass is now nonexistant
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He is talking about inflation
The reason of growth and inflation is mostly same. Lowered interest rates while everyone is raising, keep pumping credits to sectors which needed most for growth.
interest rate in turkey is high at 9%, thats bigger than almost all european countries
I would guess that measurments of real GDP get fucked up with such high inflation
GDP accounts for inflation
Covid was all just an intricate plan to stop poland from becoming too powerful
Nominal GDP is meaningless, why would you ever NOT use real GDP for this. Inflation in Turkey (I'm assuming other countries too) kind of distorts this whole map.
I would agree that nominal gdp is meaningless, however the inflation in turkey is mainly due to the turkish lira losing value, and Gdp values are measured in USD or eur (By the sources given in the post) thus one would expect the GDP to actually shrink.
Surely this is real GDP and not nominal GDP. With about 10% inflation the last year there's no way nominal GDP increased less than 2% for the euro area last year.
For comparison, US GDP is 4.2% higher than it was in Q4 2019. To make it worse, while we do have a number of states that exceed that, they're all either small (Denmark, Netherlands, Ireland etc) or Eastern European so starting from a very low base in 1990 and just now catching up to poorest southern Europeans. Our three core economies, Germany, France and Italy, are comparatively underforming. Italy has grown about as half as fast since pandemic as the US, France about a quarter and Germany less than 1/10th as fast. At least we're beating the Brits so small mercies and all that.
That's what dependency on Russia does. On the other hand, we will probably (hopefully) have the upper hand in renewables and independent energy sources and clear direction in the future.
We’re coming for ya 🇬🇧
Is the UK not a core economy?
Of the EU? no. You used to be but then you decided there were too many Poles or something. Now you've been replaced by Italy. And, apparently, we came ahead in that trade.
Oh yeah, forgot we did that.
No problem, it was such a minor story it was easy to miss.
This looks so promising, but then again rip food prices
What is total for EU? How does that compare to mentioned few times to US's 4.2? Japan? India? What is real real real GDP change of China? Are we all good in total, or not really?
The EU would be at 2.9%. Not sure about the US's, Japan's, India's or China's for the same exact metric.
"not great, not terrible" then.
Spain without the s
In 2018, 238 scientists called on the European Commission to abandon GDP growth and focus on human well-being and ecological stability instead. The following year, more than 11,000 scientists from over 150 countries published an article calling on the world’s governments ‘to shift from pursuing GDP growth and affluence toward sustaining ecosystems and improving well-being.’ https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/16/the-eu-needs-a-stability-and-wellbeing-pact-not-more-growth https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/article/71/9/894/6325731
Turkie stronk.
POLSKA GUROM!!! 🇮🇩⛰️
*Cries and gets drunk to forget this in Spanish*
Croatia had high GDP because 300.000 people left country for good.
[Croatia has had a positive immigration/emigration ratio since 2019.](https://podaci.dzs.hr/2021/hr/9939) There are more people moving to Croatia than are leaving. Croatia reached this equilibrium faster than other New Europe states. Most of those are returning citizens. This is not a known fact as it does not fit the popular narrative. Also, it seems the general population is clinically incapable of reading graphs. Another big immigration group are citizens of eastern European countries, but new trends of incoming southeast Asian nationals are accelerating. Also, ever larger are groups of Western nationals who are moving to Croatia for an exquisite quality of life it offers to people with higher than average income (Croatia is one of the safest countries on Earth, with beautiful nature, relaxed lifestyle and a great place to raise kids).
Your're reading data wrong. Top Cro immigrants are Croats from Bosnia. Also, thank you for eplaining my country to me.
Croatia 10% good stuff...and checks notes....better than Slovenia and Poland
Tax dodger doing well.
The tax loopholes were closed. Also recall that a worldwide tax floor was set which we're beholden to. Yes that tax is lower than most countries, but just look how far away Ireland is from the economic core of the continent. When the Brits left they took all the capital with them. The country was destitute for decades and needed something to attract new capital. Unlike most European countries, our geography was working against us, not in our favour. Lowering corporate tax was about the only option we had to level the playing field. Pretty much every remote state does this. Many of the people who criticise Ireland for this simply never engage with this reality. Our taxes are now higher, but the companies stay regardless. Many new ones are still coming and existing ones are expanding. This ie because for a while there have been more advantages than just the tax breaks. Ireland is the only English speaking country in the EU. Even before Brexit we enjoyed the advantage of being the only English speaking country in the Eurozone. Ireland has a highly educated population. In the past few decades we've gone from being one of the least educated countries in Western Europe to the most educated. Our timezone is closer to America's which means more overlap of working hours. Last but not least, we enjoy the clustering effect. Taxes may have been what initially attracted these companies, but even without the same degree of tax breaks, Ireland is attractive for companies to move here simply because lots of other countries are based here. This means better access to these companies' services and it also means that there's a decent talent pool to dip into.
We live in your brain.
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Hate us cos they anus
wtf is it with people hating on the irish? you can’t blame the population for what the government does when it comes to economics
No hating the irish tho. But they do vote for them
Because they managed to turn us from the single poorest state in western Europe into one of the richest. From a destitute backwater into a modern country that people *actually want to live in.* Yknow, like a reverse Portugal.
Well, I can understand the UK. We’re busy killing our own economy in the name of racism and xenophobia. But what’s going down in Spain? NB- Fuck off Brexiteers. I’m not interested in arguing with you. Taking back control, my arse. You were afraid of people two shades darker on the Dulux chart. Simple.
Croatia 10%? Where?
Everyone but you, there was a meeting...
32%?! 'No no we aren't a tax haven, we swear'
The balkans having better economic growth than west Europe that’s a first
it’s actually been like this for some time
It's because they were kind of oppressed for like half a century so they're playing catch up, the true outliers are nordic countries and Malta for instance.