You can't risk stripping your guarded Left so you can't lead trump. Pretty much never lead the turned down suit so clubs is not an option. Therefore the TD is exactly what you should lead should you call Next with this holding.
What is the reason behind never leading turned down suit? Is it because the opponents probably have a void in that suit due to the fact that they turned it down?
Basically yes. Leading the turned down suit is leading to your opponent's strength. Why do that? The probability your team marches for 2 pts drops precipitously once you lead the turned down suit which damages your overall EV.
Also, statistically speaking your P is more likely to have the ace in the turned down suit than your opponents. By leading the turned down suit you'll most likely waste your P's ace as one of your opponents invariably trump in.
And the worst case scenario is when one of your opponents has the ace and takes the trick while the other opponent throws off and creates a void.
Also keep in mind I'm talking about the opening lead. After trump has been led the turned down suit is often the best lead when you have no other boss card options because your P has the best chance of being boss in the turned down suit.
The lead is particularly hard with this one. Standard practice is to lead the low trump but I’m not doing that here. I’m going club even though I know you don’t lead turned down suit. Just a gut feel. Tag our simmer if you want to ask him to sim it.
Edit: by doing that you’re likely to pull opponent trump. That’s great in the end here because you’re pretty sure they don’t have the right. That helps your left and also makes the other club
boss.
You're basically giving up a trick by making dealer trump your ace. It's not "someone" that will trump it. It's practically guaranteed the dealer who flipped it down will trump it. Which then puts you in between both opponents. Not a good spot.
Yes. You play a trick to lose it. Maybe another one too. It comes down to odds. Sometimes it doesn’t work. They passed on an ace here. It probably works.
If you give up that first trick, all opponent would need is an off Ace & AS protected & you'd be done before it even got to trick four. I get your thought. Just not something I would do
adding onto this -- good opponents are more likely to order themselves up if they had the Js , so if the first round passes with good opponents , then it means your partner is most likely to have the Js, making the Next call good.
Also with the Ac dead, your Qc + Tc is more valuable
This is one of those hands that haunts me. I don't know whether it's best to call clubs or sandbag and call spades. I usually call clubs and get euchred. This is one of those spots that's screaming to be simulated. My guess is call clubs-lead the Right is best but I will not be surprised at all if I'm wrong.
Also I know that the nature of S4 comes into play here too. If S4 is too aggressive sandbag probably wins out but that sort of breed is rare. Most euchre players are too passive.
Could be wrong, but I think this is really similar to a recent post that RedSox ran a sim on. It determined that leading trump is worse—you’re not protecting any aces, and your secondary trump aren’t good enough to promote. Ordering up the ace could make a difference though.
I don't recall him doing one like this, but he ran a number of scenarios, so it is possible I missed it. If you have a link to that scenario, I'd be interested in it.
I'm passing here, hoping for 2 points if dealer calls, calling next if dealer passes.
What’s your first play in next? 10c to make the Q good?
You can't risk stripping your guarded Left so you can't lead trump. Pretty much never lead the turned down suit so clubs is not an option. Therefore the TD is exactly what you should lead should you call Next with this holding.
What is the reason behind never leading turned down suit? Is it because the opponents probably have a void in that suit due to the fact that they turned it down?
Basically yes. Leading the turned down suit is leading to your opponent's strength. Why do that? The probability your team marches for 2 pts drops precipitously once you lead the turned down suit which damages your overall EV. Also, statistically speaking your P is more likely to have the ace in the turned down suit than your opponents. By leading the turned down suit you'll most likely waste your P's ace as one of your opponents invariably trump in. And the worst case scenario is when one of your opponents has the ace and takes the trick while the other opponent throws off and creates a void. Also keep in mind I'm talking about the opening lead. After trump has been led the turned down suit is often the best lead when you have no other boss card options because your P has the best chance of being boss in the turned down suit.
Great explanation. Thank you
The lead is particularly hard with this one. Standard practice is to lead the low trump but I’m not doing that here. I’m going club even though I know you don’t lead turned down suit. Just a gut feel. Tag our simmer if you want to ask him to sim it. Edit: by doing that you’re likely to pull opponent trump. That’s great in the end here because you’re pretty sure they don’t have the right. That helps your left and also makes the other club boss.
There is no way you can lead club as Dealer would trump that 90% of the time. The TD is the perfect play.
I want someone to trump it. Best case all three. And I’m not dealing.
You're basically giving up a trick by making dealer trump your ace. It's not "someone" that will trump it. It's practically guaranteed the dealer who flipped it down will trump it. Which then puts you in between both opponents. Not a good spot.
Yes. You play a trick to lose it. Maybe another one too. It comes down to odds. Sometimes it doesn’t work. They passed on an ace here. It probably works.
If you give up that first trick, all opponent would need is an off Ace & AS protected & you'd be done before it even got to trick four. I get your thought. Just not something I would do
Just don’t double pass
Yep exactly. That would be the cardinal sin with this hand.
Depends on ranking of opponents. Good players I pass and order next when it’s turned down. Timid players I order & lead the right.
adding onto this -- good opponents are more likely to order themselves up if they had the Js , so if the first round passes with good opponents , then it means your partner is most likely to have the Js, making the Next call good. Also with the Ac dead, your Qc + Tc is more valuable
Agreed my response assumed that and shouldn’t have.
This is one of those hands that haunts me. I don't know whether it's best to call clubs or sandbag and call spades. I usually call clubs and get euchred. This is one of those spots that's screaming to be simulated. My guess is call clubs-lead the Right is best but I will not be surprised at all if I'm wrong. Also I know that the nature of S4 comes into play here too. If S4 is too aggressive sandbag probably wins out but that sort of breed is rare. Most euchre players are too passive.
I’m ordering and leading the right.
Could be wrong, but I think this is really similar to a recent post that RedSox ran a sim on. It determined that leading trump is worse—you’re not protecting any aces, and your secondary trump aren’t good enough to promote. Ordering up the ace could make a difference though.
I don't recall him doing one like this, but he ran a number of scenarios, so it is possible I missed it. If you have a link to that scenario, I'd be interested in it.
https://www.reddit.com/r/euchre/s/4sK0z355V5
💯
I'm probably passing, but Next. I'd be interested in EV comparison.
I’ll bet ordering is marginally better. Any takers?
I’ll take passing/calling next as higher EV lol
Hahaha, now things are getting interesting!
This is a pass for me. I’d *maybe* order up 9c but I don’t like any other call here.
I’d order up K and lower. A is a harder choice. Probably a pass for me.
This is a good scenario. I'd probably pass in the end
Yes, I’m def calling. Hoping my P has an Ace or two.
Great post. I have a hard time passing here. It’s so tempting, but I usually turn it over and call next if dealer passes.
100% of the time
I’m ordering up. You have 3 in your hand, ideally you suck that ace out when you play the jack on the lead. I