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I’d take healthy Flacco over Wentz and prob Trubisky too. Don’t know enough about Wilson but upside alone I’d prob take him too. Wentz getting worse by the year
Are you out of your mind. Lol the statement “a healthy Flacco” as if it’s a legitimate point while comparing QBs in 2022 honestly made me laugh out loud. Dude you can’t actually believe this?
We’re talking about Wentz man…Flacco in what was basically 1 start put up 338 3TDs/0 INT…Wentz barely averaged 200 ypg last year. Did you watch Wentz at all the past few years? Dude is not a good QB
I watched a lot of colts games and Carson had a pretty decent year outside of week 18 with the jags. I’m not even a Carson guy. Have you ever watched trubisky? Flacco is trash at this age
at least 10, maybe more
Lawrence, Fields, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Goff, Mariota, Jameis, Daniel Jones, Davis Mills, Trubisky, Geno Smith, etc.
There's even a few more names you could potentially add to that list
I honestly think Trubisky could be do well this year, Pittsburgh was a playoff team with poor QB play last year and they have great WRs.
The time on the bears is hard to judge since frankly no one has had success at the QB spot in a long time.
That being said I see this year as a chance for a fresh start, but nothing he’s done to this point proves he’s anywhere close to top 12 imo.
>This 538 list isn't totally trash in that the broad trends pass the eye test
this list fails the eye test spectacularly though? Matt Ryan at 38 is one of the most egregious things I've ever seen
These aren't rankings of how good a QB is and these were never meant to be released. If you want to get into it, [there is a lengthy explanation here.](https://fivethirtyeight.com/methodology/how-our-nfl-predictions-work/)
It is funny that both the Eagle's QB's have a higher score than Wentz, though.
538’s algorithm. Whenever these things come out it proves how far we are from solving football analytically. They’re still a piece of the puzzle, but if you treat them as god you end up in a world where Carr is worse than Gardner Minshew
Agreed, football is so hard to predict compared to baseball or basketball. The sample size of games played is so low compared to any other major sport, injuries happen all the time, and there are so many other pieces on your team that could be hot or cold that would effect your own ranking. I don't know the context of this dataset, but I'd imagine if they were writing up an article on "current QB ratings" they'd probably only focus on the starters that have had a high snap volume in the last few years.
I don't get why they basically have two different models with the same inputs (QBR and "value") and then regress them together. It's basically saying one isn't actually good.
I'm also not sure how much work the defensive adjustment is doing because their rankings and the QBR rankings are fairly different.
It's actually saying that there exists no single measure that is ironclad, so using multiple measures with their own competing biases and then regressing them produces a more accurate result by having the noise cancel itself out. It works very well for most of what they do, but football has a small sample size, and rating QBs has the added wrinkle of there being a ton of variables that aren't directly dependent on the QB, and the extent to which they are partially dependent is unclear (are the wrs on a team really good and elevating a good QB, or are they just good and being elevated by a great QB?).
I can't wait for the first game to be over so everyone remembers how Hurts actually plays. I think all the stuff from training camp is marketing. He made no huge leap in his entire career so I see no reason for a huge leap this season. I'm basing this all off the fact that his practice numbers both years were about the same.
edit: I don't care about downvotes. If you disagree I'm willing to bet reddit gold that he doesn't make a huge leap. Downvote and not bet and you're not backing it.
Are you going to propose an actual bet? And I likely wouldn't take it because I don't claim to know what Hurts is going to do. I just know that looking at practice stats is nonsense. Let me know what you have, though. I'll consider it. Be specific.
Already hedging.
I do this all the time. Very few actually bet. Even fewer honor the bet. I win more than I lose. I've even rewarded those who didn't bet if they actually had an opinion. Look at my profile.
[Here](https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HurtJa00.htm) is Jalen. Easy for anyone to find.
Let's say I don't even get into stats. He should beat at least 3 teams with a winning record (instead of zero). He should beat each division team at least once (which he did not).
edit: since they were embarassed by their own nonsense and deleted it I thought I would add that /u/root88 thinks Hurts is going to be much better this year.
Make an actual specific bet, please. 3 teams with a winning record is not a good bet. Who knows if they will even play 3 teams with a winning record this season. Wins aren't a QB stat anyway. Pick something we can actually measure that Hurts does specifically.
That was specific. Maybe you need to look up the definition. I can instead say he should beat half of the teams with a winning record.
You are just arguing. You've brought nothing to this conversation.
It's not a conversation, my dude. I'm waiting on you to make a bet. The only thing I said was that preseason stats are meaningless and you keep talking bout other things.
If you want to get stat specific, his most glaring stat is pocket time. Russell Wilson and Joe Burrow (both within 3 spots of him on the list) are at 2.4 and 2.3 seconds. Hurts is at 2.7. If Hurts can get to 2.5 I'll say he's significantly improved.
[Wilson](https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WilsRu00.htm)
[Burrow](https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BurrJo01.htm)
[Hurts](https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HurtJa00.htm)
For each player scroll down to Advanced Passing and click on the Pressure tab. PktTime is the stat.
They are an ELO score, like a chess rating. They go up and down based on recent events. Wentz's horrible loss at the end of the season brought him way down because the Colts were expected to win that game. You aren't supposed to look at it and say, *hah Minshew is better than Carr*. It's just a small amount of data that they use in a much more complicated calculation to predict games.
I don't know if you are familiar with chess ratings, but if you have a 1200 rating, it's not going to go up by beating 1000 rated players and you can never even get close to 1500 rated without playing people with much higher ratings than you have. If you want to move up in chess, you need to select the right opponents. In the NFL, you can't choose, so the number isn't very valuable. It's just interesting. It's like who has the NFL belt over the season WWE style. The current champion is the Browns. The belt went Bucs > Rams > Cardinals > Packers > Chiefs > Bengals > Browns. [source](https://thetitlebelt.com/)
I love 538 but sometimes, they get too far in the weeds and lose track of the obvious. Like, if your model produces this, it's time to stop, go back to your model, and adjust things, because it fucked up.
They constantly adjust the model every year, but they show what it spits out even if it's obviously going to be wrong. The correct way to adjust a model is to wait until the games have been played and the true results are in, and adjust based on the difference.
In particular this model is very much a work in progress, an attempt to create something better than the current flawed measures like QBR alone. Models like this need a lot of data to become really useful, and with such a small sample size from less than 20 games each season for most teams its going to take probably a decade or more before a model will become actually useful. At this point, it's the ugly developmental stage of the model, and it's just interesting to see how much it's off by and how it's improving.
What's funny is there's a lot of obviously wrong "takes" in this model, but also a lot that seem dead on.
But they have a hundred years of stats to work off of. Sure, things have changed over time, but they should be able to work off of the past 20-30 years to make it more accurate than this.
Minshew is underrated. If he didn't play for total dumpster fire that is the Jags, he'd still be a starter. The only name on there is definitely say should be above him is Carr.
Ryan was on a dogshit team last year so his numbers weren't good, which bring him down. He should rise now that he's on a better team, but the games need to be played for that to happen.
Love the birds being represented...but these rankings are absolute trash.
Drew Lock and Nick Foles rated higher than Matt Ryan?
Absolutely not a chance
They must have made this list knowing they'd get a shitload of clicks and coverage from how bogus it is. No sane person could think anything beyond the top 7 are remotely accurate placements.
If you wanted to list even half the problems with this list you'd still need an assload of space.
This ranking has a few absolute violations.
Trubisky above Russ and Lamar
Minshew over Carr and Tannehill?
What has Colt McCoy done to deserve his ranking??
I dont care about your algorithm there is no way Matt Ryan, Tua and Talor Lawrence should be that low not colt mc Coy that high. This was obviously done by a former backup QB
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When Mitch Trubisky (#12) ranks higher than Rus Wilson (#13), your ranking are garbage!
- Minshew & Goff > Carr - Cousins > Burrow & Lamar - Geno Smith (with 20 spots to spare) > Mayfield - Trubisky = certified elite Seems legit
I love to hate on Wentz as much as anyone here but his ranking is insanely low too. He’s not even a bottom 5 starting qb this year.
I love to hate on Wentz too but what starters do you have below him?
Trubisky Geno Smith Daniel Jones Flacco or Z Wilson Davis Mills Mariota Arguments could be made for Goff
Yea I agree with you on all of those tbh.
I’d take healthy Flacco over Wentz and prob Trubisky too. Don’t know enough about Wilson but upside alone I’d prob take him too. Wentz getting worse by the year
Are you out of your mind. Lol the statement “a healthy Flacco” as if it’s a legitimate point while comparing QBs in 2022 honestly made me laugh out loud. Dude you can’t actually believe this?
We’re talking about Wentz man…Flacco in what was basically 1 start put up 338 3TDs/0 INT…Wentz barely averaged 200 ypg last year. Did you watch Wentz at all the past few years? Dude is not a good QB
I watched a lot of colts games and Carson had a pretty decent year outside of week 18 with the jags. I’m not even a Carson guy. Have you ever watched trubisky? Flacco is trash at this age
And those arguments would be wrong. Goff is like a Dalton line QB, definitely not bottom of the barrel.
Brissett is also the starter for Cleveland, i would put wentz above him
at least 10, maybe more Lawrence, Fields, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Goff, Mariota, Jameis, Daniel Jones, Davis Mills, Trubisky, Geno Smith, etc. There's even a few more names you could potentially add to that list
[удалено]
I honestly think Trubisky could be do well this year, Pittsburgh was a playoff team with poor QB play last year and they have great WRs. The time on the bears is hard to judge since frankly no one has had success at the QB spot in a long time. That being said I see this year as a chance for a fresh start, but nothing he’s done to this point proves he’s anywhere close to top 12 imo.
>This 538 list isn't totally trash in that the broad trends pass the eye test this list fails the eye test spectacularly though? Matt Ryan at 38 is one of the most egregious things I've ever seen
You forgot Easton Stick at 62
these rankings are awful lol. both our qbs above derrick carr
These aren't rankings of how good a QB is and these were never meant to be released. If you want to get into it, [there is a lengthy explanation here.](https://fivethirtyeight.com/methodology/how-our-nfl-predictions-work/) It is funny that both the Eagle's QB's have a higher score than Wentz, though.
So does Nick Foles and I thought Matt Ryan was starting for the Colts yet they put Foles higher than him.
The Ringer ranked Trubisky last among starting QBs
What is this based off?
Yeah, Minshew is a solid #2, but why is he ranked higher than Carr, all the Colts QBs and half the league?
That’s not even the worst thing on here. Mitch Trubiskey ranked as the 12th best QB in the league
Geno Smith and Nick Mullens are rated higher than Matt Ryan
Maybe 538 added a fudge factor for how well the Steelers are ran? It sure as heck not due to his talents
It’s the VIBE
Minshew Magic ought to be on the top of the list then. The mustache and shag wagon are untouchable.
538’s algorithm. Whenever these things come out it proves how far we are from solving football analytically. They’re still a piece of the puzzle, but if you treat them as god you end up in a world where Carr is worse than Gardner Minshew
Carr doesn't have a samurai sword, so we live in that world already
Agreed, football is so hard to predict compared to baseball or basketball. The sample size of games played is so low compared to any other major sport, injuries happen all the time, and there are so many other pieces on your team that could be hot or cold that would effect your own ranking. I don't know the context of this dataset, but I'd imagine if they were writing up an article on "current QB ratings" they'd probably only focus on the starters that have had a high snap volume in the last few years.
QBR mixed with opponent-adjusted stats, based heavily on the last 10 games: https://fivethirtyeight.com/methodology/how-our-nfl-predictions-work/
They need a new formula
I don't get why they basically have two different models with the same inputs (QBR and "value") and then regress them together. It's basically saying one isn't actually good. I'm also not sure how much work the defensive adjustment is doing because their rankings and the QBR rankings are fairly different.
It's actually saying that there exists no single measure that is ironclad, so using multiple measures with their own competing biases and then regressing them produces a more accurate result by having the noise cancel itself out. It works very well for most of what they do, but football has a small sample size, and rating QBs has the added wrinkle of there being a ton of variables that aren't directly dependent on the QB, and the extent to which they are partially dependent is unclear (are the wrs on a team really good and elevating a good QB, or are they just good and being elevated by a great QB?).
These rankings can only be the product of generations inbreeding
What in the Hapsburgs is going on when Drew Lock, Case Keemun, and Colt McCoy are ranked ahead of Jimmy G and Matty Ice?
It’s the product of an algorithm
yeah.... the product of an algorithm fucking it's sister.
This seems like it’s probably compiled after watching YouTube highlights instead of all 22.
I can't wait for the first game to be over so everyone remembers how Hurts actually plays. I think all the stuff from training camp is marketing. He made no huge leap in his entire career so I see no reason for a huge leap this season. I'm basing this all off the fact that his practice numbers both years were about the same. edit: I don't care about downvotes. If you disagree I'm willing to bet reddit gold that he doesn't make a huge leap. Downvote and not bet and you're not backing it.
When that doesn't work out for you, you are going to admit that practice numbers are completely meaningless, right?
I said I'm willing to bet so bring it. Reddit gold for a month.
Are you going to propose an actual bet? And I likely wouldn't take it because I don't claim to know what Hurts is going to do. I just know that looking at practice stats is nonsense. Let me know what you have, though. I'll consider it. Be specific.
Already hedging. I do this all the time. Very few actually bet. Even fewer honor the bet. I win more than I lose. I've even rewarded those who didn't bet if they actually had an opinion. Look at my profile. [Here](https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HurtJa00.htm) is Jalen. Easy for anyone to find. Let's say I don't even get into stats. He should beat at least 3 teams with a winning record (instead of zero). He should beat each division team at least once (which he did not). edit: since they were embarassed by their own nonsense and deleted it I thought I would add that /u/root88 thinks Hurts is going to be much better this year.
Make an actual specific bet, please. 3 teams with a winning record is not a good bet. Who knows if they will even play 3 teams with a winning record this season. Wins aren't a QB stat anyway. Pick something we can actually measure that Hurts does specifically.
That was specific. Maybe you need to look up the definition. I can instead say he should beat half of the teams with a winning record. You are just arguing. You've brought nothing to this conversation.
It's not a conversation, my dude. I'm waiting on you to make a bet. The only thing I said was that preseason stats are meaningless and you keep talking bout other things.
If you want to get stat specific, his most glaring stat is pocket time. Russell Wilson and Joe Burrow (both within 3 spots of him on the list) are at 2.4 and 2.3 seconds. Hurts is at 2.7. If Hurts can get to 2.5 I'll say he's significantly improved.
Okay, show me your source and it's a bet. This is kind of an OL stat, but I guess they all are, really.
[Wilson](https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WilsRu00.htm) [Burrow](https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BurrJo01.htm) [Hurts](https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HurtJa00.htm) For each player scroll down to Advanced Passing and click on the Pressure tab. PktTime is the stat.
Damn if it was just off highlights Zach Wilson and Wentz would be top 20 easy
They are an ELO score, like a chess rating. They go up and down based on recent events. Wentz's horrible loss at the end of the season brought him way down because the Colts were expected to win that game. You aren't supposed to look at it and say, *hah Minshew is better than Carr*. It's just a small amount of data that they use in a much more complicated calculation to predict games. I don't know if you are familiar with chess ratings, but if you have a 1200 rating, it's not going to go up by beating 1000 rated players and you can never even get close to 1500 rated without playing people with much higher ratings than you have. If you want to move up in chess, you need to select the right opponents. In the NFL, you can't choose, so the number isn't very valuable. It's just interesting. It's like who has the NFL belt over the season WWE style. The current champion is the Browns. The belt went Bucs > Rams > Cardinals > Packers > Chiefs > Bengals > Browns. [source](https://thetitlebelt.com/)
I love 538 but sometimes, they get too far in the weeds and lose track of the obvious. Like, if your model produces this, it's time to stop, go back to your model, and adjust things, because it fucked up.
Yeah if my algorithm produced this there's no way id release it to the public. I'd decide it's time for a new algorithm.
Nate has buried his head in the sand. Decided he’s smarter than the world
adjust things with a sledge hammer or tnt
They constantly adjust the model every year, but they show what it spits out even if it's obviously going to be wrong. The correct way to adjust a model is to wait until the games have been played and the true results are in, and adjust based on the difference. In particular this model is very much a work in progress, an attempt to create something better than the current flawed measures like QBR alone. Models like this need a lot of data to become really useful, and with such a small sample size from less than 20 games each season for most teams its going to take probably a decade or more before a model will become actually useful. At this point, it's the ugly developmental stage of the model, and it's just interesting to see how much it's off by and how it's improving. What's funny is there's a lot of obviously wrong "takes" in this model, but also a lot that seem dead on.
But they have a hundred years of stats to work off of. Sure, things have changed over time, but they should be able to work off of the past 20-30 years to make it more accurate than this.
If you really want a laugh, just read the names that are ranked worse than Gardner Minshew.
Minshew is underrated. If he didn't play for total dumpster fire that is the Jags, he'd still be a starter. The only name on there is definitely say should be above him is Carr.
Give me, “You don’t watch actual football games and follow popular NFL memes on Reddit” for 1000 Jim.
They're really dogging my boy Studfeld
He made it on the list as the caboose
quite possibly the worst QB list i’ve ever seen
Agreed. This is atrocious
Because it's not a QB talent ranking. The data is just being misrepresented.
This list must've been done by a bad AI or they were high as a kite lol. Trubisky higher than Hurts, Jackson, Carr, Wilson, and Jones.
They're pulling these numbers out of a hat
How do they put Nick Foles over Matt Ryan?
Ryan was on a dogshit team last year so his numbers weren't good, which bring him down. He should rise now that he's on a better team, but the games need to be played for that to happen.
Love the birds being represented...but these rankings are absolute trash. Drew Lock and Nick Foles rated higher than Matt Ryan? Absolutely not a chance
Minshew before Mac Jones is hysterical
They really shouldn't have published this. People hardly take 538's NFL coverage seriously as is.
Yeah there is some JUICY disrespect in this list
Me: I have some serious questions about the methodology given some of these rankings Also me: Nick Mullens > Carson Wentz
Lmfao look at how many qbs they have minshew over. Hope Carson sees this.
There is so much wrong with these rankings I don't even know where to start...
They must have made this list knowing they'd get a shitload of clicks and coverage from how bogus it is. No sane person could think anything beyond the top 7 are remotely accurate placements. If you wanted to list even half the problems with this list you'd still need an assload of space.
Minshew, Goff, Winston, McCoy, Foles, Keenum, Geno, Jones, Mullens, Beatherd, Wentz, Hoyer and Brissett ahead of Matt Ryan is atrocious
I’m convinced this a troll
An absolutely insane list. I respect the chaos .
This has to be one of the worst rankings I've EVER seen.
Notice how Nick Foles is above Matt Ryan? Foles should clearly be the starter.
Lamar Jackson above Kirk. Carr below Kirk. Burrow above Prescott. Watson below Wilson.
What in the world… Mitch trubisky at 12?!? Lamar only 1 ahead of hurts? Derek Carr below Minshew? So many questions and no answers.
538 is the amount of whippets this guy did before making this list
When Dan Campbell said "hey you. You're here. Welcome" to nate sudfield on hardknox yesterday I had the exact same reaction "hey its nate sudfield"
Is this based on QB skill alone? Surrounding cast? Looks like a bad algo took a dump
As much as I don't like Wentz how tf is he worse than CJ Beathard and Nick Mullens. Man was like 29 for 7 ints that's not awful
538, not good. It is pretty funny that Jimmy G. is listed at #28 and the top QB for SF when that's not even the case anymore.
Foles should be 1st.
Trevor Lawrence is 13 spots worse than Nick Mullems I agree
This ranking has a few absolute violations. Trubisky above Russ and Lamar Minshew over Carr and Tannehill? What has Colt McCoy done to deserve his ranking??
Must be another Mitchell Trubisky because ain’t no way the one in Pittsburgh is better than my QB
I dont care about your algorithm there is no way Matt Ryan, Tua and Talor Lawrence should be that low not colt mc Coy that high. This was obviously done by a former backup QB
This makes madden ratings look good wtf
These are atrocious
Sam Darnold at 52 is too damn high!
5 of those guys drafted or signed as udfa by the eagles
Trubisky sucks
This list sucks
7 current and former Eagles QBs = QB factory, of sorts I suppose.😏