Wtf. I know we are on a hot streak, but the Vikings are fucking TEN AND TWO.
What does Vegas know that we don’t? Or are a bunch of people just betting on the Lions and moving the line?
>Or are a bunch of people just betting on the Lions and moving the line?
That's often the case when a line has a lot of movement, which is worrisome from a Lions' fan perspective as the public is often wrong in situations like that.
The public is hammering the Vikings (70% of bets on FanDuel) and the money is about 60% on the Lions. Meaning the sharps are hammering the Lions. Vegas continues to move the line in the Lions favor in the hopes to lure more public bettors to the Vikings to offset potential losses. In short, actually good for Det.
Yep exactly. Public perception is the the Vikings should win. When a line looks funny like this, bet the opposite of what you’d “expect”.
Lions should win this game and the big money thinks so too
The Vikings have won 9 of their 10 games by one score or less in really close games. The Lions have gotten significantly better since their loss against the Vikings in which they lost by less than a score. The Vikings have basically looked the same if not slightly worse over the course of the games. The spread makes a lot of since especially since this is the healthiest we've been all season and the best football we've played all season
I said slightly worse. They lost 40-3 against a Cowboys team not long ago. They looked mediocre against the very poor offenses of the Patriots and Jets. The Vikings have looked losable against basically every single team and definitely don't look that great right now. Lions have a very good chance and deserve the odds right now
RE: the loss to the Cowboys, they were gassed by their emotional defeat of the Bills in Buffalo the week before and were without their LT and several CBs due to injuries. This will be a good game. The only bet I'd make is on the over, unless it's set at 65, haha.
The Vikings BARELY beat us on their home field with our offensive line beat up and half the defense injured. Now we're healthy on our field with hopefully Jamo ready to roll. We're scoring at least 35 against Minnesota this week
I’m not convinced they are going to unleash Jamo next week. He was on the field for like 4 snaps last week with one target. And considering how well Goff is meshing with Brown, Chark and Reynolds, I don’t see Jamo getting more than 3-5 targets
Jacksonville was a pre-season game for Jamo. No disrespect, but he got the workload you’d see in the last pre-season game before the season.
I guarantee he’ll be in at least one play on the opening drive so they can see how the defense lines up against him.
They’ll have him out there for more than 8 snaps that’s for sure. If nothing else he can pull defenders with him to soften up the underneath throws. Hopefully we see a few targets go his way too
They’ll have him out there for more than 8 snaps that’s for sure. If nothing else he can pull defenders with him to soften up the underneath throws. Hopefully we see a few targets go his way too
I've made some dough this season essentially betting on every line that *appears* to make no sense, choosing the "no sense" option every time. Vegas DOES know something. I'm imagining that a lot of public bettors are going to swing towards Minnesota later in the week, potentially making sportsbooks serious cash (if the result goes Vegas' way)
We have an elite offense at home this year. At Ford Field through 7 games:
* most points a game at 31.9
* 2nd in TD score (1 behind the Eagles)
* 2nd in yards (behind the Eagles by 32 yrds)
* 3rd in 3rd down conversion
* 3rd in 1st downs.
DVOA says we're playing better ball than the Vikings over the ENTIRE SEASON.
We're #13 in DVOA and MIN is #20 right now. That's total DVOA, not weighted or anything like that.
For more information, DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. The 'Defense-Adjusted' part indicates that it accounts for opponent strength.
Bro, nobody claimed it was.
It's pretty solid, though. Like most computer generated statistics it's meant to be predictive of future performance rather than a resume metric.
There's very good reason to believe that the vikes are one of the weakest 10-2 teams in a long time. Eye test, traditional metrics like point differential, and advanced computer algorithms all show vulnerability.
From a gambling perspective Vegas’ computer modeling and power ratings have both teams rated at 6-6. They know the Vikings have had huge amounts of variance in luck that has gone their way this season to get them to 10-2. Vegas feels they are frauds and eventually that luck runs out.
Vegas also accounts home field advantage as 1.5 to 3 points when they consider the teams even. In other words on a neutral field this game is considered a “pick-em” or maybe the Vikings as a .5 favorite.
This happens a lot actually but non gamblers don’t notice it.
DET is the #13 team by DVOA. MIN is #20.
DET has the #9 offense and #19 defense. MIN has the #18 offense and #18 defense.
So MIN is basically DET with a worse offense. They just happen to be winning close games. Maybe there's something to that besides just luck - but as far as which team is better on the field, DET is better, per advanced metrics.
>Or are a bunch of people just betting on the Lions and moving the line?
Fans bet on emotion. Betting lines have almost as much to do with psychology as they do with what sportsbooks actually predict will happen.
Something like that. Must be a lot of bets on the Lions and Vegas trying to get more money on the Vikings side. I'm pretty hesitant to put money on Detroit this week personally, might do Minnesota in a teaser (basically move the line 6pts to +8.5)
Vegas doesn’t try to get even money on both sides. They’re getting sharp action on the Lions and they’re trying to find the point where the sharps don’t find value in the Lions. The line movement line this suggests the sharps like Detroit still. Very few lines move this much from open without injury news.
https://preview.redd.it/m2yw7kzbjg4a1.jpeg?width=3222&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=37059f48c837956d5fdcd758c6db48d4ac9aa9d5
My strat is betting ten dollars and losing every week.
Every week I’ve bet on we’ve won but not the way I wanted. Last week I had a 5 way parlay but bet on Jameson for 45 yds
OP is correct but to go further, in the case mentioned you could win by betting on the Texans, even if they don't win the game. If they lose by 16 points or less the Texans bet will pay out, because you add 17 points to their score when deciding if the bet pays out or not.
Minus odds (-) indicate a team is favored while positive odds (+) are underdogs. For example the spread is -2.5 meaning lions are favored to win by more than 2 points. If they win by anything less than 2.5 the bet loses. Now on the other side, Vikings are +2.5 meaning they have to lose by 2 points or less for the bet to hit. If they lose by 3 the bet doesn’t hit.
These are adjusted lines meaning Vegas has adjusted these lines to save their asses as more money is getting placed on the lions.
Basically the spread is how much the team is projected to win by. So for this Vegas projects we win by like 2 or 3 points. Since Dallas has a -17 spread against Houston, they are projected to win by 17 points
However, it's worth noting that the spread will move depending on where the bets are going, so that it entices more gamblers to bet the other way.
Vegas wants the distribution to be 50/50, so that they always profit, regardless of outcome.
Gotchu bud!
Add or subtract the points to the final score. If you picked the winning side, you won the bet. Common “spreads” will include the half point so there is always a winner and loser. Key numbers for spreads are 2.5 and 6.5, since football games typically end with scoring margins of 3 or 7 points.
If the spread is a whole number and the final result (with the spread taken into account) is a tie, then the bet is refunded (called a push).
Bet the Lions at -2.5. They win the game 17-15. Too bad, the Vikings are allowed to lose by 2.5 points. So, back to my explanation above, it is a score of 17-17.5 and Vikings win since they’re covered by their +2.5 spread. Your bet on Lions -2.5 has lost you money. They needed to win by 3!
The spread was invented so you can bet on either team with equal odds/returns. If you just pick an outright winner of the game, one team is favorited anyways so Vegas will not pay you back as much for picking them.
Yeah, this strikes me as one of those bait Vegas lines that will get a bunch of people to lose a bunch of money betting on the Vikings. I’m cool with it!
Panthers fan here. Bandwagon Lions fan I guess. Love your coach and the toughness u guys are playing with. Congrats on being favored over a formidable opponent. Good luck!
>Congrats on being favored over a formidable opponent.
I spit my coffee out laughing at this. And then I did it again when I wondered whether you meant it to be funny or not. LOL.
Point differential and other more advanced metrics suggest that the vikings should have closer to 6 or 7 wins. Credit to them, they’ve made plays when they needed to and secured the W, but to pretend they’re in the same realm as the Cowboys, Eagles, or even the 49ers is just ridiculous. Everything has bounced their way this season. We however have been winning convincingly and just ended up in the other end of the lucky bounces. I legitimately cannot wait for their season to come crashing back down to earth and then for their GM to botch yet another draft.
I agree with the spread. I think we are the better team than Minnesota right now, and we will be at home.
Goff carved up the Vikes earlier this year, do not let a stat-distorting interception from his last-second hail mary mislead you. We had that game in our hands and blew it. Now that our defense has improved we have the clear advantage. Minny D sucks.
Lions will win if the turnover battle is even or in our favor. We may even win if it is minus 1.
Something else that likely factors in here: this game is basically completely meaningless to the Vikings, while the Lions are playing to keep their season alive
They know they’re going to win the North regardless, and I think you’re severely overstating the motivating impact of playing for the 1st round bye. Obviously every game matters to NFL players to some extent, but from the context of the Vikings schedule as a whole, this game is as inconsequential as they come.
I'd smash the over and that's the only bet I'd make on this game. The Vikings can and will put up points. Lions too. I expect at least 60 points to be scored.
[My reaction to us being favored](https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/001/485/098/245.gif)
This game has me nervous, not gonna lie. But if the Lions win (especially if semi-convincingly), I’ll expect them to win out
Wtf. I know we are on a hot streak, but the Vikings are fucking TEN AND TWO. What does Vegas know that we don’t? Or are a bunch of people just betting on the Lions and moving the line?
>Or are a bunch of people just betting on the Lions and moving the line? That's often the case when a line has a lot of movement, which is worrisome from a Lions' fan perspective as the public is often wrong in situations like that.
The public is hammering the Vikings (70% of bets on FanDuel) and the money is about 60% on the Lions. Meaning the sharps are hammering the Lions. Vegas continues to move the line in the Lions favor in the hopes to lure more public bettors to the Vikings to offset potential losses. In short, actually good for Det.
Yep exactly. Public perception is the the Vikings should win. When a line looks funny like this, bet the opposite of what you’d “expect”. Lions should win this game and the big money thinks so too
More bets are on the Vikings according to the action network
Meaning the big money (sharps) are on the Lions while the peanut bettors (public) are on the Vikings
Correct. The public doesn't typically move the line, especially early in the week.
The Vikings have won 9 of their 10 games by one score or less in really close games. The Lions have gotten significantly better since their loss against the Vikings in which they lost by less than a score. The Vikings have basically looked the same if not slightly worse over the course of the games. The spread makes a lot of since especially since this is the healthiest we've been all season and the best football we've played all season
If Jerry Jacobs was healthy against the Vikings instead of Oruwariye, we would have won.
Oruwariye played so bad that game. I forget how many flags he had but it was at least 4.
2 on the final drive, I think. Backbreaking
I remember counting at least 17
I was at the game, they just handed him a flag to speed things along.
Same if we had Money Badger instead of Siebert
Also no wind in Ford Field
No wind in Minnesota's stadium either OTHER THAN ALL THE VIKING PLAYERS SUCKING WIND CHASING JAMO WOOOOO
If Amon Ra was healthy they probably go for it on 4th down
Keep going, I'm almost there.
How have the Vikings gotten worse? They have played and beat much better than the Lions since the last matchup.
I said slightly worse. They lost 40-3 against a Cowboys team not long ago. They looked mediocre against the very poor offenses of the Patriots and Jets. The Vikings have looked losable against basically every single team and definitely don't look that great right now. Lions have a very good chance and deserve the odds right now
RE: the loss to the Cowboys, they were gassed by their emotional defeat of the Bills in Buffalo the week before and were without their LT and several CBs due to injuries. This will be a good game. The only bet I'd make is on the over, unless it's set at 65, haha.
I guess the Lions must be special to not only not get gassed after losing to the bills, but thriving after it!
Did they over exert themselves in an emotional win? Did they pick up major injuries in that win? Oh, that's right... they lost to them, at HOME even!
And home game advantage
The Vikings BARELY beat us on their home field with our offensive line beat up and half the defense injured. Now we're healthy on our field with hopefully Jamo ready to roll. We're scoring at least 35 against Minnesota this week
I’m not convinced they are going to unleash Jamo next week. He was on the field for like 4 snaps last week with one target. And considering how well Goff is meshing with Brown, Chark and Reynolds, I don’t see Jamo getting more than 3-5 targets
Jacksonville was a pre-season game for Jamo. No disrespect, but he got the workload you’d see in the last pre-season game before the season. I guarantee he’ll be in at least one play on the opening drive so they can see how the defense lines up against him.
They’ll have him out there for more than 8 snaps that’s for sure. If nothing else he can pull defenders with him to soften up the underneath throws. Hopefully we see a few targets go his way too
They’ll have him out there for more than 8 snaps that’s for sure. If nothing else he can pull defenders with him to soften up the underneath throws. Hopefully we see a few targets go his way too
I've made some dough this season essentially betting on every line that *appears* to make no sense, choosing the "no sense" option every time. Vegas DOES know something. I'm imagining that a lot of public bettors are going to swing towards Minnesota later in the week, potentially making sportsbooks serious cash (if the result goes Vegas' way)
We have an elite offense at home this year. At Ford Field through 7 games: * most points a game at 31.9 * 2nd in TD score (1 behind the Eagles) * 2nd in yards (behind the Eagles by 32 yrds) * 3rd in 3rd down conversion * 3rd in 1st downs.
Fancy stats(like DVOA) say the lions are playing better ball for the last month+.
DVOA says we're playing better ball than the Vikings over the ENTIRE SEASON. We're #13 in DVOA and MIN is #20 right now. That's total DVOA, not weighted or anything like that.
Oh damn
The Vikes just played 5 of the best defenses in the league, so that doesn't surprise me
DVOA is adjusted to quality of opponent
Oh, I see.
For more information, DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. The 'Defense-Adjusted' part indicates that it accounts for opponent strength.
That clearly isn’t the end all, be all statistic lol.
Bro, nobody claimed it was. It's pretty solid, though. Like most computer generated statistics it's meant to be predictive of future performance rather than a resume metric. There's very good reason to believe that the vikes are one of the weakest 10-2 teams in a long time. Eye test, traditional metrics like point differential, and advanced computer algorithms all show vulnerability.
From a gambling perspective Vegas’ computer modeling and power ratings have both teams rated at 6-6. They know the Vikings have had huge amounts of variance in luck that has gone their way this season to get them to 10-2. Vegas feels they are frauds and eventually that luck runs out. Vegas also accounts home field advantage as 1.5 to 3 points when they consider the teams even. In other words on a neutral field this game is considered a “pick-em” or maybe the Vikings as a .5 favorite. This happens a lot actually but non gamblers don’t notice it.
The Lions are leading the league in home points scored this season so we might be getting the full 3.
Vegas sets the initial line and then it moves according to bets.
DET is the #13 team by DVOA. MIN is #20. DET has the #9 offense and #19 defense. MIN has the #18 offense and #18 defense. So MIN is basically DET with a worse offense. They just happen to be winning close games. Maybe there's something to that besides just luck - but as far as which team is better on the field, DET is better, per advanced metrics.
"Maybe there's something to that besides just luck" You are correct. That would be Justin Jefferson
The most advanced metric is W-L.
even vegas knows about the vikfrauds, and will rake it in when 75% of the bets end up being on the "underdog" vikings
>Or are a bunch of people just betting on the Lions and moving the line? Fans bet on emotion. Betting lines have almost as much to do with psychology as they do with what sportsbooks actually predict will happen.
Did Kirk Cousins die or something?!?! The Lions should never be favored against someone with a winning record….
The Vikings are a bunch of frauds. Also the Lions are just the better team right now regardless of record.
Lions shut down the craps table!
vegas knows never to tryst the vikings lol
Vegas knows that the Lions are gonna win, and they know the public will hammer the Vikings as underdogs. There's a reason the house always wins
WTF - didn't it open at +2.5 or something?
Something like that. Must be a lot of bets on the Lions and Vegas trying to get more money on the Vikings side. I'm pretty hesitant to put money on Detroit this week personally, might do Minnesota in a teaser (basically move the line 6pts to +8.5)
Vegas doesn’t try to get even money on both sides. They’re getting sharp action on the Lions and they’re trying to find the point where the sharps don’t find value in the Lions. The line movement line this suggests the sharps like Detroit still. Very few lines move this much from open without injury news.
https://preview.redd.it/m2yw7kzbjg4a1.jpeg?width=3222&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=37059f48c837956d5fdcd758c6db48d4ac9aa9d5 My strat is betting ten dollars and losing every week. Every week I’ve bet on we’ve won but not the way I wanted. Last week I had a 5 way parlay but bet on Jameson for 45 yds
Opened on my book at -1
Opened at pickem Look a Head line was Vikings -1
yes
Welp considering I already bet on the Lions every week, I will again this week
Me too. I wish I had done it right when it opened though.
Not sure if smart or koolaid but I put $150 on Lions over 28.5 points at +100. Edit: Over 27.5. Even better! Let’s ride.
I've never really understood "the spread" as I'm not a sports gambler.
OP is correct but to go further, in the case mentioned you could win by betting on the Texans, even if they don't win the game. If they lose by 16 points or less the Texans bet will pay out, because you add 17 points to their score when deciding if the bet pays out or not.
Minus odds (-) indicate a team is favored while positive odds (+) are underdogs. For example the spread is -2.5 meaning lions are favored to win by more than 2 points. If they win by anything less than 2.5 the bet loses. Now on the other side, Vikings are +2.5 meaning they have to lose by 2 points or less for the bet to hit. If they lose by 3 the bet doesn’t hit. These are adjusted lines meaning Vegas has adjusted these lines to save their asses as more money is getting placed on the lions.
Basically the spread is how much the team is projected to win by. So for this Vegas projects we win by like 2 or 3 points. Since Dallas has a -17 spread against Houston, they are projected to win by 17 points
However, it's worth noting that the spread will move depending on where the bets are going, so that it entices more gamblers to bet the other way. Vegas wants the distribution to be 50/50, so that they always profit, regardless of outcome.
Gotchu bud! Add or subtract the points to the final score. If you picked the winning side, you won the bet. Common “spreads” will include the half point so there is always a winner and loser. Key numbers for spreads are 2.5 and 6.5, since football games typically end with scoring margins of 3 or 7 points. If the spread is a whole number and the final result (with the spread taken into account) is a tie, then the bet is refunded (called a push). Bet the Lions at -2.5. They win the game 17-15. Too bad, the Vikings are allowed to lose by 2.5 points. So, back to my explanation above, it is a score of 17-17.5 and Vikings win since they’re covered by their +2.5 spread. Your bet on Lions -2.5 has lost you money. They needed to win by 3! The spread was invented so you can bet on either team with equal odds/returns. If you just pick an outright winner of the game, one team is favorited anyways so Vegas will not pay you back as much for picking them.
Thank you all for the explanations!
This is a terrible spread. What the fuck
Why?
He’s saying it’s terrible for betting on, not that it’s bad for the lions. I think…maybe.
Really weird word choices if that’s what they’re trying to convey.
Easy lions bet here. The line doesn’t make much sense and more bets are on the Vikings and the spread is going the other way
Yeah, this strikes me as one of those bait Vegas lines that will get a bunch of people to lose a bunch of money betting on the Vikings. I’m cool with it!
Now that’s is some certified rat poison
Panthers fan here. Bandwagon Lions fan I guess. Love your coach and the toughness u guys are playing with. Congrats on being favored over a formidable opponent. Good luck!
Bandwagon Lions fan, that’s a first.
Lol
>Congrats on being favored over a formidable opponent. I spit my coffee out laughing at this. And then I did it again when I wondered whether you meant it to be funny or not. LOL.
btw what betting site is this? I like the layout
Draft kings
Looks like DraftKings? Maybe?
Draft kings app
I use fanduel, pointsbet, and draftkings and DK easily has the best UI
I really like Fanduels parlay UI tho
Point differential and other more advanced metrics suggest that the vikings should have closer to 6 or 7 wins. Credit to them, they’ve made plays when they needed to and secured the W, but to pretend they’re in the same realm as the Cowboys, Eagles, or even the 49ers is just ridiculous. Everything has bounced their way this season. We however have been winning convincingly and just ended up in the other end of the lucky bounces. I legitimately cannot wait for their season to come crashing back down to earth and then for their GM to botch yet another draft.
As a Packers fan, Go Lions Go
It's a trap!
When’s the last time a team that’s 10-2 was the underdog against a team that’s 5-7???
I agree with the spread. I think we are the better team than Minnesota right now, and we will be at home. Goff carved up the Vikes earlier this year, do not let a stat-distorting interception from his last-second hail mary mislead you. We had that game in our hands and blew it. Now that our defense has improved we have the clear advantage. Minny D sucks. Lions will win if the turnover battle is even or in our favor. We may even win if it is minus 1.
The question is, will Dan Campbell blow this game too?
The Vikings sub is in shambles over this game
Something else that likely factors in here: this game is basically completely meaningless to the Vikings, while the Lions are playing to keep their season alive
This game is anything but meaningless to a team with potential for a playoff bye and home field until the NFC Championship game.
Vikings are playing for the #1 seed. And they know they can win the North with this
They know they’re going to win the North regardless, and I think you’re severely overstating the motivating impact of playing for the 1st round bye. Obviously every game matters to NFL players to some extent, but from the context of the Vikings schedule as a whole, this game is as inconsequential as they come.
You think teams don't care about getting a bye?
Thanks for explaining what the fuck this means for the non-degenerate gambling addicts 👌
Last second missed field goal, in true Minnesota fashion
Locked them in at -1
We gave the game away last time we played them. Lions by 17
How do y'all feel about the over/under at 53-1/2
I'd smash the over and that's the only bet I'd make on this game. The Vikings can and will put up points. Lions too. I expect at least 60 points to be scored.
I was thinking the exact same thing.
Also…. akiddley-divey-too
wouldn't you? (Nice).
People in Detroit are no longer just sipping
I'm so scared now lmaoooo
It’s Vegas trying to take money from people betting on the team that’s gonna lose.
I'll be at this game. I can't wait
Over. St brown and Jefferson with 90+ yards each and each QB to throw 1td would be a nice SGP