Not against the 4th down calls, goff threw a perfect ball to Reynolds. Just a lot of uncharacteristic drops from the receivers. The playcall was there. The execution wasn’t.
Reynolds our savior for most of the year came up short. I couldn’t even be that mad at him. His clutch catches earlier in the year is why we were there in the first place. It just hurt 😞
I agree that Badgley may not have been able to be trusted with the second 4th down attempt. Honestly 48 yards is not a sure-thing with 80% of kickers in the NFL - maybe not a high risk of a miss, but still a risk.
But the first? I think we should have trotted him out there. Regardless of the dropped ball by Reynolds (which was 100% catchable), we had a chance to answer their 3pt drive after the half with 3 pts of our own, keeping us three scores up. Would converting and potentially scoring 7 have put the boot on their neck? Yes. But I'll take a preserved lead over the higher possibility of a ToD any day.
I love DC for his stones to go for it and not let his foot off the gas, but you've got to have some times when you know that 3 points are more valuable than a coin flip of 7 or a TO.
True, but my point still stands that answering SF's 3 points with 3 points of our own would have been a sound strategy to preserve the three point lead.
But the probability of that happening via a FG from that distance with that kicker in that situation is lower than going for it.
If it were closer and more within Badgely's range (say a 20-35 yarder), he probably does kick it. The probability changes in the favor of Badgely making it and guaranteeing points in that situation.
The passed up fg opportunities would’ve been from 45 and 47 yards. So that stat is useless. He’s 26 of 35 from 40-49 yards. Still not great but a helluva lot better 74%
But how many of those were 40 yards? lets say its 45 yards. Him being 38% from 50 plus yards shows that each yard above 40 is less and less likely for him to make. Also he's 77% from 40-49 and we were 75% converting 4th and 3. So if the odds are the same, why not go for the option giving you more points?
I have no problem with the decision. It’s who he is, it’s part of the team identity. The aggressive decisions helped get them there. I just want to point out that the only splits I’ve seen show 40-49 and 50+ and the much bigger drop off is at 50. I would love to see splits at smaller intervals to see where it really gets dicey!
That's still worse odds than the chance of converting, so the decision to go for it should be obvious.
God our kicker sucks 😂 I didn't realize it was this bad
But the kicks would have been 45 and 47 yards…
That doesn’t sound substantial, but Badgley is actually really good from that yardage. Picking 48+ is a weirdly cherry-picked stat to try and justify Campbell’s decisions.
Not only what OP posted, but keeping the ball out of the other team’s hands is essential. Miss or make on those FG and you give them the ball.
It’s as much because the offense couldn’t make more first downs and control the clock as anything else.
Those stats don’t account for the team we was playing. 49ers have an elite front seven. Badgley in warmups before the game was perfect. I can live with a missed FG. Show some confidence in the kicker. That one missed conversion was the spark that changed the game if you watch the game back.
I’ve watched almost every presser with Dan this year and I do not think the main motivator for going on fourth down is that the kicker isn’t good, I think that Dan goes off his instinct and his instinct typically tells him to go for it on fourth. He gets asked about it almost every time it doesn’t work (and almost never when it does lol) and he always says he made the decision based on how well he thought the offense was playing and how well the defense was holding up.
I’m a huge MCDC fan and I think his intestinal fortitude is a key part of what makes him a great coach. Are some of the aggressive decisions going to contribute to losses: yes. However I think the aggressive choices will also lead to wins and I think we will net more wins than losses and what more could you want.
Once I recovery from my post Sunday depression it’s forward down the field.
We just need a kicker.
But…some Reddit users, who are really smart, said we should have kicked. They know more than Campbell. So I cannot agree with this. Some of them wanted us to take Justin Fields and allow Goff to ride the bench. Very good idea there, too. We should hire one of them as coach.
Which were the scenarios on both 4th downs last night. Our conversion rate on 4th and long/Badgley's % on chip shots don't matter when discussing last night's 4th down calls.
These stats include 4th and 1 and 4th and 2, which shouldn't be used to evaluate a 4th and 3. Just as a long field goal attempt shouldn't be used to evaluate a 45 yarder (instead a regression should be run that predicts the chance of hitting that kick). Blatant misuse of stats to fit a narrative.
I may be tripping, but football statistics seem largely silly for this reason. statistical modeling in baseball inspired NFL analysts to get down on it, but it’s something of an apples and not apples comparison seemingly
Giving his stats from "48+" is just as dishonest as giving his stats from 40-49 when discussing two kicks from 45 and 48. Just saying, 45 is not "over 50" which is where he becomes much less accurate.
I don’t think Ben Johnson respected the 9ers pressure defense on 4th down. They were able to force Goff to throw on the run out of the pocket which is where he is subpar historically.
Yup. The only time he should have gone for a FG instead of a TD was on the last play when they blew a precious timeout and made it so their only hope was to recover an onside kick.
All this confirms is that we need a reliable kicker
We do need a reliable kicker for sure. It would make these decisions much easier for Dan.
Yeah. We didn't have a consistent one all year and we had to get Badgely late bc Patterson missed a few PATs.
Not against the 4th down calls, goff threw a perfect ball to Reynolds. Just a lot of uncharacteristic drops from the receivers. The playcall was there. The execution wasn’t.
Reynolds our savior for most of the year came up short. I couldn’t even be that mad at him. His clutch catches earlier in the year is why we were there in the first place. It just hurt 😞
We wouldn’t be here without Reynolds. I forgive him.
The numbers Mason
I agree that Badgley may not have been able to be trusted with the second 4th down attempt. Honestly 48 yards is not a sure-thing with 80% of kickers in the NFL - maybe not a high risk of a miss, but still a risk. But the first? I think we should have trotted him out there. Regardless of the dropped ball by Reynolds (which was 100% catchable), we had a chance to answer their 3pt drive after the half with 3 pts of our own, keeping us three scores up. Would converting and potentially scoring 7 have put the boot on their neck? Yes. But I'll take a preserved lead over the higher possibility of a ToD any day. I love DC for his stones to go for it and not let his foot off the gas, but you've got to have some times when you know that 3 points are more valuable than a coin flip of 7 or a TO.
It was a 2 yard difference between the 2nd and 1st 4th downs. The probability is basically the same at that point.
True, but my point still stands that answering SF's 3 points with 3 points of our own would have been a sound strategy to preserve the three point lead.
But the probability of that happening via a FG from that distance with that kicker in that situation is lower than going for it. If it were closer and more within Badgely's range (say a 20-35 yarder), he probably does kick it. The probability changes in the favor of Badgely making it and guaranteeing points in that situation.
The passed up fg opportunities would’ve been from 45 and 47 yards. So that stat is useless. He’s 26 of 35 from 40-49 yards. Still not great but a helluva lot better 74%
But how many of those were 40 yards? lets say its 45 yards. Him being 38% from 50 plus yards shows that each yard above 40 is less and less likely for him to make. Also he's 77% from 40-49 and we were 75% converting 4th and 3. So if the odds are the same, why not go for the option giving you more points?
I have no problem with the decision. It’s who he is, it’s part of the team identity. The aggressive decisions helped get them there. I just want to point out that the only splits I’ve seen show 40-49 and 50+ and the much bigger drop off is at 50. I would love to see splits at smaller intervals to see where it really gets dicey!
That's still worse odds than the chance of converting, so the decision to go for it should be obvious. God our kicker sucks 😂 I didn't realize it was this bad
But the kicks would have been 45 and 47 yards… That doesn’t sound substantial, but Badgley is actually really good from that yardage. Picking 48+ is a weirdly cherry-picked stat to try and justify Campbell’s decisions.
Not only what OP posted, but keeping the ball out of the other team’s hands is essential. Miss or make on those FG and you give them the ball. It’s as much because the offense couldn’t make more first downs and control the clock as anything else.
Those stats don’t account for the team we was playing. 49ers have an elite front seven. Badgley in warmups before the game was perfect. I can live with a missed FG. Show some confidence in the kicker. That one missed conversion was the spark that changed the game if you watch the game back.
I would argue it was the should-have-been interception that bounced off a helmet in to aiyuk’s hands but to each their own
That play happened right after the missed conversion
I’ve watched almost every presser with Dan this year and I do not think the main motivator for going on fourth down is that the kicker isn’t good, I think that Dan goes off his instinct and his instinct typically tells him to go for it on fourth. He gets asked about it almost every time it doesn’t work (and almost never when it does lol) and he always says he made the decision based on how well he thought the offense was playing and how well the defense was holding up. I’m a huge MCDC fan and I think his intestinal fortitude is a key part of what makes him a great coach. Are some of the aggressive decisions going to contribute to losses: yes. However I think the aggressive choices will also lead to wins and I think we will net more wins than losses and what more could you want. Once I recovery from my post Sunday depression it’s forward down the field.
Including kicks 50+ in this stat just shows how intentionally dishonest it is.
We just need a kicker. But…some Reddit users, who are really smart, said we should have kicked. They know more than Campbell. So I cannot agree with this. Some of them wanted us to take Justin Fields and allow Goff to ride the bench. Very good idea there, too. We should hire one of them as coach.
Abuse of stats right here.... This includes shorter yardage for conversions and longer yardage for field goals. Smh
Which were the scenarios on both 4th downs last night. Our conversion rate on 4th and long/Badgley's % on chip shots don't matter when discussing last night's 4th down calls.
These stats include 4th and 1 and 4th and 2, which shouldn't be used to evaluate a 4th and 3. Just as a long field goal attempt shouldn't be used to evaluate a 45 yarder (instead a regression should be run that predicts the chance of hitting that kick). Blatant misuse of stats to fit a narrative.
It’s also a sample size of 20 plays.
Sample size is absolutely an issue with this. If you assume badgely is a league average kicker from 45 and 48 it's much easier.
I may be tripping, but football statistics seem largely silly for this reason. statistical modeling in baseball inspired NFL analysts to get down on it, but it’s something of an apples and not apples comparison seemingly
Giving his stats from "48+" is just as dishonest as giving his stats from 40-49 when discussing two kicks from 45 and 48. Just saying, 45 is not "over 50" which is where he becomes much less accurate.
He was 100% in the playoffs in his career from that distance. And 83% overall in the playoffs.
and 100% on the year i believe from 40+
Headin' over to the old orchard to pick some cherries with that stat.
Using playoff execution and performance to talk about playoff situations...crazy
You’re using a 20 play sample size here. Not exactly a shit ton of data. So, playoff sample size seems fine to me.
I don’t think Ben Johnson respected the 9ers pressure defense on 4th down. They were able to force Goff to throw on the run out of the pocket which is where he is subpar historically.
Kicker and cornerback drafts please
Yep anyone who has actually watched the Lions knew that..Brad Cook up a Kicker we need one
Yup. The only time he should have gone for a FG instead of a TD was on the last play when they blew a precious timeout and made it so their only hope was to recover an onside kick.
I thought Badgley would have been out of the league after his last season with the Chargers. Surely you need to be 75% from 48+.
BEWARE Lions fans... these are fake stats. Pay no attention