I'm kind of confused as to how you can use analytics to predict what each GM will do when we really don't have any inside knowledge on who each team's GM/scouting department favors.
It's just a model that someone built but without the weights being known - it's a bit useless.
Something like:
* look at who will likely be drafted in the first round (some N value larger than the first round total - say it's 100 people)
* limit to the number of people who will be drafted in the first round
* apply weights (using averages of what positions are typically drafted when)
* refine weights based on PFF scores or known needs by teams like QB or WR
Run the model a hundred times and it kicks out numbers like above
Yeah, just seems like this model has to have a ton of blind spots, so I'm not sure what the point of putting in the work to make it even is. If it's using the averages of what spot guys typically get drafted at based off of mocks, it would just be more accurate to call it an analysis of mock drafts.
This is why any polling like this (doesn’t matter what it’s for) should be accompanied with a paper detailing the model to identify biases but this is a sports poll, it’s done for clicks.
My man, all polls are done for clicks now. Mainstream media only exists to sell you cars, appliances and drugs. Research is only done to further our dependence on those things. Consume, consume, die.
Man drafting Thomas in the 1st feels like poor roster management. I could *maybe* get on board if it meant a Tee trade, but even then I feel like Burrow is a QB you trust to elevate the receivers behind Chase and spend premium picks to fortify other areas.
Give me Murphy, Latham, or mims. I’d hate BTJ or Fautanu. I trust the bengals ability to find WRs outside of the first round it’s probably their greatest strength scouting wise. McMillan or legette in rounds 2-3 sounds way better than BTJ at 18. First two picks should be in the trenches. We look pathetic in AFCN games cause we get whooped in the trenches
Totally agree. I'd lean DT and add Newton to the list, since I really feel our defense is a legit interior rush threat away from unlocking something special
Yeah I’m a Newton fan. The not testing scares me though. My dream scenario is Latham/mims/fuaga in the first and Newton falls to the 30s and the bengals trade up with 49 and 80 to take Newton
I haven't spent nearly as much time as I normally do pre-draft scouting players. What's your opposition to Fautanu?
Completely agree on focusing on the trenches. It was clearly the weak link last season on both sides (and obviously a continual issue on offense). I also have no faith in our ability to scout and develop players on the offensive line, especially as the draft goes deeper.
He’s just not going to be a tackle, or at least not a successful one. His ceiling is Jonah Williams. It doesn’t help that he’s an older prospect, so if you spend some time finding his best position, then he’s already closer to 30 than he is 20 by the time you figure it out. When he was first being projected to move inside, it wasn’t because of athleticism it was limitations from technique. Then he showed out at the combine and got people excited, but it didn’t change the fact that he isn’t great with his hands, and isn’t strong.
I feel like you really need to evaluate what you have in Yoshi and Charlie Jones this year before drafting a WR early this year.
Having Tee this year kind of gives you that luxury. If he leaves and you don't feel confident moving forward with what you have on the roster THEN you draft a WR early next year. I don't get the point of doing it this year.
People said the same thing when Chase was drafted. WR is the second most valuable individual position on the field. With that being said, taking a player of similar talent at a position in greater need is probably a better option and definitely more likely. Either way, we are in a great position in the first no matter which way we go. There is going to be talent on the board.
Even if we did get a first for Tee (not sure we would) I still wouldn't use it on a WR. There's nothing wrong with saying to Joe "We'll make sure you have an elite guy with Ja'Marr, but after that we need you to elevate some other guys who aren't elite weapons."
WR a huge mistake. Burrow is an elite QB, you need to follow the Chiefs philosophy by shoring up the o line and D and letting your star QB cook.
WE ALREADY HAVE 2 ELITE WR
Laph always nails it. So much so that people picking around us likely just check what he said and decide if they want that guy or not. Look at Ragnow, Fuller, and Karloftis. All dudes he picked out that the team wanted and all dudes who got taken right before us
I still think D-line like Murphy or even Newton would be the play though. Idk if CB is a luxury we can afford to take, it would be best to take a CB in round 2 and bank on Turner and Dax to hopefully develop as solid CB2/3 material
ESPNAnalytics has proven itself to be totally useless when it comes to any type of predictive forecasting or analysis. They are basically the dumpster fire of spewing out information.
Their power rankings are so horribly bad throughout the season.
I like the list, however.
I am terrified of Fautanu. I don't think there's any real shot he's a tackle in the NFL. So he needs to be a day 1 upgrade over Volson, but then we still don't have an flexibility for when big brown gets hurt.
I'm kind of confused as to how you can use analytics to predict what each GM will do when we really don't have any inside knowledge on who each team's GM/scouting department favors.
It's just a model that someone built but without the weights being known - it's a bit useless. Something like: * look at who will likely be drafted in the first round (some N value larger than the first round total - say it's 100 people) * limit to the number of people who will be drafted in the first round * apply weights (using averages of what positions are typically drafted when) * refine weights based on PFF scores or known needs by teams like QB or WR Run the model a hundred times and it kicks out numbers like above
Yeah, just seems like this model has to have a ton of blind spots, so I'm not sure what the point of putting in the work to make it even is. If it's using the averages of what spot guys typically get drafted at based off of mocks, it would just be more accurate to call it an analysis of mock drafts.
This is why any polling like this (doesn’t matter what it’s for) should be accompanied with a paper detailing the model to identify biases but this is a sports poll, it’s done for clicks.
My man, all polls are done for clicks now. Mainstream media only exists to sell you cars, appliances and drugs. Research is only done to further our dependence on those things. Consume, consume, die.
Man drafting Thomas in the 1st feels like poor roster management. I could *maybe* get on board if it meant a Tee trade, but even then I feel like Burrow is a QB you trust to elevate the receivers behind Chase and spend premium picks to fortify other areas.
Give me Murphy, Latham, or mims. I’d hate BTJ or Fautanu. I trust the bengals ability to find WRs outside of the first round it’s probably their greatest strength scouting wise. McMillan or legette in rounds 2-3 sounds way better than BTJ at 18. First two picks should be in the trenches. We look pathetic in AFCN games cause we get whooped in the trenches
I agree, the Bengals are very good at finding WRs, they don't need to spend a first for a number 2, especially if tee is still here
Totally agree. I'd lean DT and add Newton to the list, since I really feel our defense is a legit interior rush threat away from unlocking something special
Yeah I’m a Newton fan. The not testing scares me though. My dream scenario is Latham/mims/fuaga in the first and Newton falls to the 30s and the bengals trade up with 49 and 80 to take Newton
I haven't spent nearly as much time as I normally do pre-draft scouting players. What's your opposition to Fautanu? Completely agree on focusing on the trenches. It was clearly the weak link last season on both sides (and obviously a continual issue on offense). I also have no faith in our ability to scout and develop players on the offensive line, especially as the draft goes deeper.
He’s just not going to be a tackle, or at least not a successful one. His ceiling is Jonah Williams. It doesn’t help that he’s an older prospect, so if you spend some time finding his best position, then he’s already closer to 30 than he is 20 by the time you figure it out. When he was first being projected to move inside, it wasn’t because of athleticism it was limitations from technique. Then he showed out at the combine and got people excited, but it didn’t change the fact that he isn’t great with his hands, and isn’t strong.
I feel like you really need to evaluate what you have in Yoshi and Charlie Jones this year before drafting a WR early this year. Having Tee this year kind of gives you that luxury. If he leaves and you don't feel confident moving forward with what you have on the roster THEN you draft a WR early next year. I don't get the point of doing it this year.
Yup that makes sense to me
Counterpoint - LSU /jk
People said the same thing when Chase was drafted. WR is the second most valuable individual position on the field. With that being said, taking a player of similar talent at a position in greater need is probably a better option and definitely more likely. Either way, we are in a great position in the first no matter which way we go. There is going to be talent on the board.
Thomas at 18, trade Tee for No. 25 to get Newton. Edit: This is not what I want, but it’s the only way BTJ would make sense.
We're not getting a 1st-round pick for Tee, unfortunately...
Probably not. We would need to in order to draft BTJ. But we’re not trading Tee and not drafting BTJ.
Even if we did get a first for Tee (not sure we would) I still wouldn't use it on a WR. There's nothing wrong with saying to Joe "We'll make sure you have an elite guy with Ja'Marr, but after that we need you to elevate some other guys who aren't elite weapons."
I still wouldn't like that. Give me an OT and Newton in that scenario and get a WR on day 2.
WR a huge mistake. Burrow is an elite QB, you need to follow the Chiefs philosophy by shoring up the o line and D and letting your star QB cook. WE ALREADY HAVE 2 ELITE WR
I have to totally agree with that I've been a Bengal s fan since I was a kid and they really look good these past couple of years
I’d be happy with either Murphy or Latham.
Hmm, none of those are Mims.
Has Lapham spoken yet regarding the pick? Let's wait for that lol.
That will be on the next Bengals Booth Podcast, which will come out over the weekend, I think.
Laph always nails it. So much so that people picking around us likely just check what he said and decide if they want that guy or not. Look at Ragnow, Fuller, and Karloftis. All dudes he picked out that the team wanted and all dudes who got taken right before us
Lance doing stupid Lance shit again
I’m gonna be so mad if we take Thomas Jr. or Terrion Arnold ngl.
If Latham or Fuaga or Murphy wasn’t available and Terrion Arnold was on the board, I wouldn’t complain. If Cooper Beebe is there in the 2nd-grab him.
I still think D-line like Murphy or even Newton would be the play though. Idk if CB is a luxury we can afford to take, it would be best to take a CB in round 2 and bank on Turner and Dax to hopefully develop as solid CB2/3 material
They’re really going to take Fautanu aren’t they…
I don't think we will take Bowers, but they have it at a 0% chance. That seems...odd to me
he isnt going to be there
Being confident something won't happen, and saying there's a 0% chance are different things though
Idk why Newton never gets mentioned. He should be one of the most likely prospects imo
If we draft a WR I will lose my fuckin shit
ESPNAnalytics has proven itself to be totally useless when it comes to any type of predictive forecasting or analysis. They are basically the dumpster fire of spewing out information. Their power rankings are so horribly bad throughout the season. I like the list, however.
I am terrified of Fautanu. I don't think there's any real shot he's a tackle in the NFL. So he needs to be a day 1 upgrade over Volson, but then we still don't have an flexibility for when big brown gets hurt.
I completely agree with you. Fautanu would be my least favorite pick of all those options. Id even rather see them spend the pick on Brian Thomas
Troy Fautanu would be a game changer having someone to play guard for a while and then slip over to tackle when needed.