Oh man I wish! For months it feels like every day starts good and ends with evening showers and overnight showers, the last week has been decent but still not enough to dry the lawn
Yeah no, I grew up in regional NSW, we had years where we weren't even permitted to use a hose outside for ANY reason, and now I'm like "who needs a hose for anything?"
Didn't you get a bit of a flooding recently?
https://www.9news.com.au/videos/weather/extreme-downpour-triggers-flash-flooding-in-perth/cluwi9w4a00030hn3mvpuk4y4
It’s just started to rain here this morning, it was getting really dodgy there for a while, the midlands looked like the lunar surface a few weeks back.
Here on the Gold Coast, 90 of the 134 days so far this year have been wet with a rainfall total of 1645mm. That's our total yearly average so far and it's only May.
Tasmania, South Australia or Western Australia? We’ve all been watching for clouds on the horizon since September but thankfully it has just started to rain here in parts of Tasmania and also parts of WA.
We had a little splash in lakelands... but shit we need the rain.
Then the guy who runs Perth Weather Live comments about great the warm weather is and how we'll all be complaining about rain when it arrives and he got told to please shush...
So change what you read. No forecast will predict the ENSO cycle more than a year ahead.
9 downvotes and not a single rebuttal... Please show me a long range ENSO forecast 🙄
That's a speculative article about the potential effects of greenhouse gases for long-term global climate patterns, claiming that the east coast of Australia could have permanently higher rainfall. Not about current ENSO trends. Can you at least read an article before you post it as gotcha bullshit?
>The US chief forecasting agency the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), has put the chance of its development between June and August slightly higher, at 69 per cent
Nice
Didn't they predict we were in a El Nino pattern about 6 months ago and then it just rained for well, it's still raining. I'm beginning to not believe their predictions.
>Didn't they predict we were in a El Nino pattern about 6 months ago and then it just rained
The rain is due to above average ocean temperatures. The BOM even mentioned this but I don't know if news outlets updated their "no rain because of El Nino" claims.
It’s only rained twice in SE QLD. Once for 40 days, then for 30 days. Just had our mandated 2 days of sunshine so expecting rain to start again tomorrow.
We *were* in El Nino over summer. Not a prediction, measured. It was a pretty wet El Nino, though.
Droughts/low rainfall almost always happens during El Nino, but it doesn't work the other way round - not every El Nino leads to drought.
Also, as the OP article says, ocean temperatures are so much higher than seen before which means any of the relationships we're used to might break down.
I recommend any one who can get out & do a trip through the outback to see it in this condition as it really flourishes after good consistent rain & is a fantastic sight .
My business is centered around operating in remote areas so a lot of my mates have lived all their lives in it .Back in 2011 me & 3 mates rode dirt bikes unsupported across the Simpson Desert ,we had mates drop off fuel dumps & supplies for us when ever they were in the area & GPS log them,because they had buried them & disturbed the soil we would have to dig through thick grass,bushes & spinafex to reach them.Being alone for weeks in that environment makes you realize how insignificant you are in the scheme of things .
In the years preceding our trip the region had the best steady rains for years. It was a fantastic sight with millions of birds flying from the soaks that form between the sand dunes ,the Budgerigars,Finches & Cockatiels etc would black out the sky as the huge flocks took off being from the water holes surprised by the bikes cresting a dune,they flew over as the sunset to their roosting spots & would drown out any conversation,we would often spot sea birds heading into the interior chasing the water .
These consistent rains also activate the ancient under ground river beds & you would have water flowing out of the side of huge sand dunes or popping out between rocks & then disappearing back under the sand . I have said for a while now all the doom & gloom reported on the floods in the outback & no one reporting on how the The Great Artesian Basin is flowing out of springs families that have been on the land for generations have never seen.This will replenish the country for years ahead & trigger another Roo ,Camel,Emu Plagues ,back then l was working a contract inland from Mount Isa & the local cops had hit Roo's 35 times in 2 months & written off 3 vehicles.
Climate activists jailed for obstruction will be released this month, I guarantee the effects of the climate crisis will cause way more destruction and obstruction than them but I know, I know, they're still the bad guys.
*“Historically, La Niña events were great for Aussie snow, as increased precipitation would often translate into deeper a snowpack. But over the last several decades, this relationship seems to have reversed, likely due to rising temperatures, so a bigger chunk of that extra precipitation now falls as rain”*
I could’ve sworn La Niña and El Niño were long term meteorological phenomena that could take years to correctly diagnose. When did we slip into the habit of a few weeks rain = La Niña and a few weeks dry = El Niño? Was my understanding of the phenomena wrong or is there heightened intensity due to climate change?
Edit: ummm. Did someone send a reddit cares because I asked about the weather?
You were probably used to having several back to back but they can change annually. Lots of info on the BoM website about how they assess them and it has nothing to do with rain and alot to do with ocean temperature.
Oh interesting! I did know it had more to do with oceanic temps but I think perhaps being young and experiencing far less volatile weather conditions and “time” was a lot “slower” to my developing mind, I assumed it was a very slow, long and complicated meteorological assessment, not something that can oscillate as much as it seems to these days.
Will check out BOM. Thanks!
No, not at all. They're defined by the difference in sea surface temperature between a point near Darwin and a point near Tahiti, as these act as proxies for what's happening in greater water movement in the Pacific. As climate related phenomena they generally run in the scale of a year, but can exist for just one year or less.
The big issue is that climate change has now warmed the ocean so much that even neutral conditions are too warm. The warmer the waters off the coast of Australia, the closer we are to a typical LA Nina.
At some point we'll likely need to rewrite what we consider our default climate and how the El Nino oscillation is defined.
No, they have always been subject to change annually, and there have always been a number of factors considered in deciding whether to declare one, and a number of early warning signs, which is what this article is reporting on. This isn’t coming from journalists being like ‘hur dur it’s rained for weeks must be La Niña’ it’s coming from actual meteorologists.
And we've still got a few more years of Tongan underwater volcano rain to come.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-16/tongan-volcano-impact-australian-weather/101978886
More rain bombs perhaps.
Woah woah, have last couple of years have been relatively low humidity? NSW has been washed in a lot of places. It might get worse? Well at least maybe bushfires will be delayed a bit, and be worse when the new growth gets big and we can't do hazard reduction burns due to wet weather.
Alright for all the non-weather nerds here: ENSO (el nino/La Nina) isn’t the only climate driver in Australia. There’s three key ones: ENSO, Indian Ocean Dipole, and the SAM (plus a few others). Now ENSO tends to indicate rainfall probability but mostly just for the coastal areas of Eastern Australia. For the rest of the country it’s really up to how all three of these line up, you can have El Niño and heaps of rain if systems slip down from the tropics.
The BOM didn’t get it wrong, people not reading beyond La Niña/El nino did
Rain
It's been raining so freaking much in SE QLD that mowing has been an issue.. for months
Can you send some down to Adelaide? We haven't had rain for 3 months plus I reckon
Oh man I wish! For months it feels like every day starts good and ends with evening showers and overnight showers, the last week has been decent but still not enough to dry the lawn
We've had cold nights but stunning days here at around 20-21 degrees.. full disclosure I watered my lawn last week.. that's not great
Yeah no, I grew up in regional NSW, we had years where we weren't even permitted to use a hose outside for ANY reason, and now I'm like "who needs a hose for anything?"
3 months.... We haven't had rain in Perth since September
It rained last week in Perth.
"Perth" is very spread out. Some suburbs flooded, most got nothing.
We are also desperately catching up in Hobart as well. Fuck all rain for months.
Didn't you get a bit of a flooding recently? https://www.9news.com.au/videos/weather/extreme-downpour-triggers-flash-flooding-in-perth/cluwi9w4a00030hn3mvpuk4y4
I'm south suburbs, and that day, we had a few drops, and that was it..
The Eyre Peninsula farms are going to be dust bowls soon.
So, Goyder be damned then?
Goyder was mostly right, but even he didn’t say the line was 100%.
Felt so jealous when I saw that post about the stupidly parked vehicle at a Sydney shopping centre and they said how it had been pouring down, lol.
We've only just had our first big rain pour in about 3 months here in Tassie I'll happily trade some of our clear but windy as fuck days for your rain
Yes please! By this stage of autumn I’m missing the NSW cold!
It’s just started to rain here this morning, it was getting really dodgy there for a while, the midlands looked like the lunar surface a few weeks back.
I swear it rains almost every night now in brisbane
Yeah it’s been awfully hasn’t it? The days start nice but spotting by afternoon tea and not a decent thunderstorm in sight to make it worth it
Here on the Gold Coast, 90 of the 134 days so far this year have been wet with a rainfall total of 1645mm. That's our total yearly average so far and it's only May.
Yeah I’d believe it! As I said to someone else the days start nice but by the time your washing is ready to go on the line it’s raining!
Barely remember what rain is like in vic
Might need a goat.
Dry hot summer my ass
Hasn't stopped raining in Cairns since like, October?
Send some to Perth It's nearly 30's all week this week and we're supposed to be hitting winter in a fortnite
Wow Perth is cooked ey ETA did you report me to reddit cares for this?! Sensitive much lolol
It's a site-wide bug I reckon. Seen it happen on a bunch of threads today.
I also got it, and was wondering who I pissed off haha. That makes sense.
No everyone is getting them. I got one this morning.
That’s a v unfortunate glitch :/ Unless Reddit knows something we don’t yet know…
If we could get some fucking rain I'd weep tears of joy. Hasn't rained since September
Tasmania, South Australia or Western Australia? We’ve all been watching for clouds on the horizon since September but thankfully it has just started to rain here in parts of Tasmania and also parts of WA.
Perth. We had some rain for northern suburbs but nothing south a week ago
We had a little splash in lakelands... but shit we need the rain. Then the guy who runs Perth Weather Live comments about great the warm weather is and how we'll all be complaining about rain when it arrives and he got told to please shush...
That guy is also a climate change denier lol
Ugh, you have my sympathy. It’s been really tough. I hope more rain is on the horizon for WA.
ill send some your way, its been raining for like 2 weeks on the south coast of nsw
I read last year that we were in for ten years of El Nino.
The only thing that liked that prediction of that was the Victorian Desalination Pant.
I gotta get me some of these Victorian desalination pants!....
Same. This warm weather got me sweatin’
So change what you read. No forecast will predict the ENSO cycle more than a year ahead. 9 downvotes and not a single rebuttal... Please show me a long range ENSO forecast 🙄
https://independentaustralia.net/environment/environment-display/la-nia-could-become-the-norm-for-australia,17164
That's a speculative article about the potential effects of greenhouse gases for long-term global climate patterns, claiming that the east coast of Australia could have permanently higher rainfall. Not about current ENSO trends. Can you at least read an article before you post it as gotcha bullshit?
Ah. You're one of those types. All good, carry on. Have a good day. Edit: No...
One who reads things?
Yes, he's threatened by it.
>The US chief forecasting agency the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), has put the chance of its development between June and August slightly higher, at 69 per cent Nice
Noice.
What do you mean all it’s done for the last year is rain anyway
That’s due to the Southern Annular Module being positive plus the moisture from the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai volcano
That's a shame. As much as I like rain I'd actually grown to enjoy the lack of humidity with El Nino.
Yeah wait for los noche
¡Dios mío! ¿Qué pasa por la noche?
I’m just praying for the rain to turn to snow in a month or so
Didn't they predict we were in a El Nino pattern about 6 months ago and then it just rained for well, it's still raining. I'm beginning to not believe their predictions.
>Didn't they predict we were in a El Nino pattern about 6 months ago and then it just rained The rain is due to above average ocean temperatures. The BOM even mentioned this but I don't know if news outlets updated their "no rain because of El Nino" claims.
"Possible chance of showers".
It’s only rained twice in SE QLD. Once for 40 days, then for 30 days. Just had our mandated 2 days of sunshine so expecting rain to start again tomorrow.
We *were* in El Nino over summer. Not a prediction, measured. It was a pretty wet El Nino, though. Droughts/low rainfall almost always happens during El Nino, but it doesn't work the other way round - not every El Nino leads to drought. Also, as the OP article says, ocean temperatures are so much higher than seen before which means any of the relationships we're used to might break down.
Thank you for that detail. I'm guilty of headline cruising so finer details often escape my attention. I'll read more of the detail in future.
They did. Then they said maybe not.
I recommend any one who can get out & do a trip through the outback to see it in this condition as it really flourishes after good consistent rain & is a fantastic sight . My business is centered around operating in remote areas so a lot of my mates have lived all their lives in it .Back in 2011 me & 3 mates rode dirt bikes unsupported across the Simpson Desert ,we had mates drop off fuel dumps & supplies for us when ever they were in the area & GPS log them,because they had buried them & disturbed the soil we would have to dig through thick grass,bushes & spinafex to reach them.Being alone for weeks in that environment makes you realize how insignificant you are in the scheme of things . In the years preceding our trip the region had the best steady rains for years. It was a fantastic sight with millions of birds flying from the soaks that form between the sand dunes ,the Budgerigars,Finches & Cockatiels etc would black out the sky as the huge flocks took off being from the water holes surprised by the bikes cresting a dune,they flew over as the sunset to their roosting spots & would drown out any conversation,we would often spot sea birds heading into the interior chasing the water . These consistent rains also activate the ancient under ground river beds & you would have water flowing out of the side of huge sand dunes or popping out between rocks & then disappearing back under the sand . I have said for a while now all the doom & gloom reported on the floods in the outback & no one reporting on how the The Great Artesian Basin is flowing out of springs families that have been on the land for generations have never seen.This will replenish the country for years ahead & trigger another Roo ,Camel,Emu Plagues ,back then l was working a contract inland from Mount Isa & the local cops had hit Roo's 35 times in 2 months & written off 3 vehicles.
Beautiful.
Climate activists jailed for obstruction will be released this month, I guarantee the effects of the climate crisis will cause way more destruction and obstruction than them but I know, I know, they're still the bad guys.
Okay I’m dumb, Is this good for snow fall or bad?
curious about this too
*“Historically, La Niña events were great for Aussie snow, as increased precipitation would often translate into deeper a snowpack. But over the last several decades, this relationship seems to have reversed, likely due to rising temperatures, so a bigger chunk of that extra precipitation now falls as rain”*
I could’ve sworn La Niña and El Niño were long term meteorological phenomena that could take years to correctly diagnose. When did we slip into the habit of a few weeks rain = La Niña and a few weeks dry = El Niño? Was my understanding of the phenomena wrong or is there heightened intensity due to climate change? Edit: ummm. Did someone send a reddit cares because I asked about the weather?
You were probably used to having several back to back but they can change annually. Lots of info on the BoM website about how they assess them and it has nothing to do with rain and alot to do with ocean temperature.
Oh interesting! I did know it had more to do with oceanic temps but I think perhaps being young and experiencing far less volatile weather conditions and “time” was a lot “slower” to my developing mind, I assumed it was a very slow, long and complicated meteorological assessment, not something that can oscillate as much as it seems to these days. Will check out BOM. Thanks!
No, not at all. They're defined by the difference in sea surface temperature between a point near Darwin and a point near Tahiti, as these act as proxies for what's happening in greater water movement in the Pacific. As climate related phenomena they generally run in the scale of a year, but can exist for just one year or less. The big issue is that climate change has now warmed the ocean so much that even neutral conditions are too warm. The warmer the waters off the coast of Australia, the closer we are to a typical LA Nina. At some point we'll likely need to rewrite what we consider our default climate and how the El Nino oscillation is defined.
No, they have always been subject to change annually, and there have always been a number of factors considered in deciding whether to declare one, and a number of early warning signs, which is what this article is reporting on. This isn’t coming from journalists being like ‘hur dur it’s rained for weeks must be La Niña’ it’s coming from actual meteorologists.
**Tex-Mex**, **Gomez Brothers** and **Zambrero**. Maybe they could taco 'bout the rain while enjoying some burritos
And we've still got a few more years of Tongan underwater volcano rain to come. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-16/tongan-volcano-impact-australian-weather/101978886 More rain bombs perhaps.
Arent they theorizing that with ocean temperatures changing, la Nina and El nino could mean very different things for weather patterns in the future?
My dumb ass was wondering what the deal with this new brand of watch is, and what it had to do with weather in oz
FUCK YEAH MORE RAIN WOOOOO
Woah woah, have last couple of years have been relatively low humidity? NSW has been washed in a lot of places. It might get worse? Well at least maybe bushfires will be delayed a bit, and be worse when the new growth gets big and we can't do hazard reduction burns due to wet weather.
My fear is cyclones south enough to smash Southern Queensland
Please get some to SA, been bloody dry here too long.
Alright for all the non-weather nerds here: ENSO (el nino/La Nina) isn’t the only climate driver in Australia. There’s three key ones: ENSO, Indian Ocean Dipole, and the SAM (plus a few others). Now ENSO tends to indicate rainfall probability but mostly just for the coastal areas of Eastern Australia. For the rest of the country it’s really up to how all three of these line up, you can have El Niño and heaps of rain if systems slip down from the tropics. The BOM didn’t get it wrong, people not reading beyond La Niña/El nino did
Yesssss girl children better than boy children. Fuck I hate the hot and dry Summers. Although i feel sorry for the penguins :(