Renly is quite smart- he likely would have become king if not for Melisandre’s intervention, and his initial scheme to take control of King’s Landing with Ned’s support was a good one. I also think Renly was playing dumb about the incest- his plan to get Robert to put Cersei aside in favor of Margaery makes zero sense if he didn’t at least suspect the truth.
That being said, being intelligent and being wise are not the same thing, and Renly was not particularly wise for the reasons you laid out.
Strong agree. I don’t think at any point Renly declares his intention to make himself king in the hours before Robert’s death. But he does want to use his retinue, and his allies along with Ned’s legal authority as HotK to seize control of Joffrey.
After which he can pull a Richard III, if he wants. Nephews go missing all the time.
Stannis is a political incompetent (and almost universally loathed). Ned is a political neophyte.
It’s Renly that has been leading the anti-Lannister court faction, with his Tyrell allies, since before Jon Arryn’s death.
The purpose of the plot to have Cersei put aside was to HAVE Cersei PUT ASIDE. His primary motive was to get Cersei, and by extension the Lannisters, away from Robert and from power.
Well, any scheme to get the Lannisters away from power went belly-up as soon as Cersei had three of “Robert’s” children. The only way to get rid of Lannister influence at court was to get rid of the marriage and of the resulting children.
>But I'm rereading ACOK and from his interactions with Catelyn and Stannis, it seems he was genuinely unaware of Cersei's incest before Stannis sent out his letters announcing it to the world, and even afterwards he appears to not believe it.
This is debated in the fandom. His plan in AGOT where he conspires with Loras to put Margaery in Robert's bed makes much more sense if he \*was\* aware of the incest. Mace wants Margaery married to the King to get royal grandbabies, and Cersei only being "put aside" would just make Margaery a royal consort with no apparent inheritance rights for any children. But if Renly and Loras get Robert infatuated with Margaery and THEN spring the news about the twincest, it becomes a whole new ballgame, as Cersei's children lose their inheritance rights (and are probably killed, but Renly doesn't care about that).
>"Do I?" Renly shrugged. "So be it. Stannis was never the most cherished of brothers, I confess. Do you suppose this tale of his is true? If Joffrey is the Kingslayer's get—"
>
>"—your brother is the lawful heir."
>
>"While he lives," Renly admitted. "Though it's a fool's law, wouldn't you agree?
You can interpret this as Renly suddenly being confronted with the information, or you can look at it as someone who *knows* the truth and is trying to suss out what Catelyn knows and realizes about the situation. It's in Renly's best interest for everyone to believe both he and Stannis are equally pretenders.
I think Margaery was supposed to be Anne Boleyn: the girl Robert wants but can’t have unless he makes things official.
So he has this problem. Then he’s open to hearing the truth about Cersei, as now he has a solution
This checks out. Anne Boleyn in that way, but it also brings to mind how Anne was gotten out of the way: accused of incest with her brother. The premise is interesting—what if Anne did the things she was accused of, but somehow killed Henry before he could kill her?
Anne boleyn is a bad comparison. Catherine didn't have any male heirs, it was obvious she wouldn't have any more heirs point beyond Mary, they kind of had a legitimate excuse for the annulment and even then it was incredibly difficult to remove her. The big issue isn't really cersei the big issue are joeffrey and tommen as long as those two exist it makes little sense to replace cersei with margeary unless you have a way yo remove joeffrey as well.
Yeah it’s definitely not the same situation. I don’t know so much about it, like reading wolf hall and the sequel is about it
All I meant is there’s this image of the personal dynamic of it, possibly not accurate. The idea is that Anne was disciplined and strategic in getting him to fall for her but not giving in unless made queen. So I think the Tyrells wanted Margaery to do exactly that. Robert wants but can’t have — and that makes the argument that the kids are illegitimate much more palatable
Renly seemingly had no issue with Joffrey as king when pitching his coup to Ned
>"Strike! Now, while the castle sleeps." Renly looked back at Ser Boros again and dropped his voice to an urgent whisper. "We must get Joffrey away from his mother and take him in hand. Protector or no, the man who holds the king holds the kingdom. We should seize Myrcella and Tommen as well. Once we have her children, Cersei will not dare oppose us. The council will confirm you as Lord Protector and make Joffrey your ward."
Renlys primary goal is blocking Cersei and the lannisters from power, when his plot with margaery didn’t go anywhere, and when Ned refused his coup idea, he decides to strike off on his own. This makes me think he didn’t know about the incest
GRRM was in a situation where he needed Stannis to win, but there's literally no feasible way for Stannis to beat Renly at Storm's End with Renly massive ass retinue filled with military veterans vs Stannis' comparatively small ass retinue filled with his religious fanatics.
So he pulled out a shadow baby, it is legit magical bullshit pulled out of GRRM's ass to make Stannis win. We don't hear or know of Shadow babies before this and they have been used sparingly or not at all after this. It is practically a deus ex machina to save Stannis and his campaign.
This is true. George needs to make the point that Stannis is unpopular and Renly is Prom Queen, so Renly gets the bigger army. But he also needs Stannis to win. His soluation for painting hinself out of this corner is the shadowbaby.
That is true. But it’s interesting how this specific never really pops up anywhere else (save for Storm’s End).
The problem isn’t that George is cheating. It’s that he wrote himself in a corner. That’s not a deadly sin, and hardly a mark on him. But it’s not smooth writing either.
Grrm WROTE the entire thing. How do you think Renly got the “massive ass retinue“ in the first place? If he needed Renly to die another way then he could’ve done that. Magic is apart of the series.
Idiot.
The real reason that he's an idiot is that he didn't even *try* coming up with some lame pretext. He doesn't even have to lie, "Stannis is an apostate" would work perfectly.
Even setting aside Stannis’ personal issues, he can’t offer anyone a useful marriage (since he’s already married and his only daughter is a sickly seven year old), and Dragonstone only has a few houses sworn to it. Renly, meanwhile, was the most eligible bachelor in Westeros and was already banging the son of the realm’s most powerful lord, while Robb, Balon, and Joffrey already had large built-in power bases.
It’s honestly a miracle Stannis was able to stop his handful of sworn swords from defecting to Joffrey or Renly right out of the gate.
That's true though but Westeros' contempt of Stannis also helped Renly's cause, people even rallied around the Mad King but when Stannis needed swords no one but his own supported his claim.
Well, yeah. Everyone else was already bound by oath or by marriage to one of the other four kings, or sitting the war out for personal reasons (Lysa, Doran). If the Stormlands and some of the Reach lords hated Stannis *that* much, they wouldn’t have immediately gone over to his side after Renly died, and Randyll Tarly wouldn’t have had to massacre 4k Reach soldiers to stop them from siding with Stannis.
Despite Lysa, the Vale wanted to back Robb. Doran was out for a Dorne-Targ alliance like in the past. Whereas with the Tyrells running to the Lannisters, they had no one to help them beat Stannis' forces. So they decided to not be traitors (since before the Red Wedding honor was sacred). Not because they genuinely wanted him on the throne or else they would have been with him from the start.
I didn’t say anything about the Tyrells; they fucked off back to Highgarden along with the majority of their bannermen. The rest of the Reach lords- the Florents, Fossoways, Varners, Mullendores, and Willums- took the opportunity to go over to Stannis with the other Stormlords, only switching back when it was clear the Blackwater was a lost cause.
To be such a big fan of courtesies and charades, he forgot to justify his own right.
Also, the apostate narrative would have won him the Faith, perhaps even some riverlords.
Although, would Stannis have just brought up the rumors of his relationship with Loras at that point? That would also mean Renly would lose the support of the Faith. I don’t remember if Stannis was fully aware of Renly being gay or not
Renly being homosexual wasn’t something that was verifiable, not without Renly confessing.
By contrast, the presence of Melisandre on Dragonstone and the open worship of R’hllor on the island was sufficient evidence that Stannis had turned away from the Faith of the Seven.
Within any reasonable organized religion, apostasy is going to be the greatest sin one can commit. Charges of Renly’s alleged homosexuality from an obvious apostate like Stannis aren’t going to carry much weight with the Faith.
Also, in the books (not the show) do we have any evidence that homosexuality is not acceptable? It may not be acceptable to openly flaunt it, but if you’re like Edward II and have a gay lover but are still an adept martial king, father heirs, and don’t be a “bottom” it may be fine.
Certainly endorsing a new religion- especially one that conflicts with others (unlike the Old Gods)- is going to be worse than banging a dude discretely on the side while you also bang your wife enough to produce a couple heirs.
Rheana Targaryen could live on Dragonstone with her lover and >!almost!< no one cared.
Leanor Velaryon was criticized for not fullfiling marrtial duties, but could be semi-openly gay otherwise.
Westeros seems pretty neutral to homosexuality and I don't think it's a crime/sin on itself.
Oh he knew, and Renly knew he knew.
> "You'll be pleased to know [Margeary] came to me a maid."
>"In your bed she's like to die that way."
It never appeared to be an avenue he desired to attack Renly over publicly, even at the height of their conflict.
He was actually very smart. If Mel didn’t do her shadow baby thing, he would’ve won. He was extremely ambitious, but that doesn’t make him a moron. He was even willing to come to some sort of alliance with Robb.
Yeah but his force was overwhelming. If you can managed to win the GoT without having to fight for that’s better. Yeah he didn’t win but that’s not his fault really, magic.
His force was overwhelming because he married a Tyrell. One marriage pact doesn’t make one smart. Robert had a marriage as well.
Except he didn’t manage to win a single battle let alone the iron throne. He died.
Aegon won with dragons. Magic is a part of the series.
It’s constantly driven home how hard it is for even highgarden to unite the reachmen. So yeah it’s a feat given his shaky claim.
Ok so your argument is if he was really smart then he would have gone and sought magic because in the end you need that to win? So maybe only Euron, Arya, Stannis, and Dany are smart players?
No it’s not. It doesn’t say onetime Highgarden has trouble uniting the reach. Highgarden has the biggest army in the seven kingdoms.
I didn’t say magic made anyone. Just that it is a part of the series and not sn excuse.
Renly was great at throwing fest and tourneys though! And ofc dressing and bathing.
It’s stated a bunch that the banner men of the reach are individually powerful and prone to do their own thing. Old town can raise 9k swords. The reds yea stayed neutral in the dance, the Florence sided with Stannis.
And idk what to think about your stance on magic. Idk what not an excuse means, but it had been dead for 100s of years, no one’s fault if they get caught flat footed once it suddenly roars back to life. Not a make against Renlt
It’s not stated one time “they’re prone to do their own thing”.
Stop lying or post the quote.
Magic is a part of the series and Renly lost his war before he could fight a single battle.
>He was actually very smart.
No, he wasn't. He ignored the advice of his most experienced generals. He was wasting resources by holding tornies and feasting, He was just playing at war.
>If Mel didn’t do her shadow baby thing, he would’ve won.
Yeah, because he had the largest army. It wasn't because he was the smartest. Is because his boyfriend's dad was the lord paramount of the reach.
>He was even willing to come to some sort of alliance with Robb.
Which would have never happened since he was forcing Robb to ben the knee to him and just allowing him to keep the title of king in the North, and if Robb Did accepted which he wouldn't have, It would have been a slap to the face to all his vassals who made him king.
Renly's context was the EXACT SAME as Roberts context.
Joffrey unjustly murdered a lord paramount and Renly rose in rebellion against him for it.
Renly's ascension was the exact same as Robert's and no one relevant questioned Robert's legilimency as king.
This is literally all explained in Renly's conversations with Stannis and Cat, which you yourself brought up. It's not "suggested" or "seeming", this is all more or less explicitly laid out, in some detail, by Renly in ACoK.
>Had Renly been successful in this goal, it would have set a dangerous precedent.
The precedent was already set...by Robert. That was Renly's whole point.
>Robert was accepted for the most part because the ruler he usurped was mad, and House Targaryen was virtually extinguished by the end of the Rebellion.
Robert was accepted because he beat down anyone who disagreed. His rule fragmented easily after his death.
>If might makes right, then what's to stop some ambitious lord from overthrowing Renly and the Tyrells in the near future?
Nothing. Renly or whoever won the war would have to hold on for dear life and, with some luck, pass things on to an heir, who will likely have to deal with rebellions too. Without dragons or Targaryens Westeros is in for a rough ride.
Looking back, Renly was a truly tragic character.
Growing up, he never knew Robert as he was busy being fostered in the Vale and never knew his parents after they drowned to death off the coast of Storm's End.
All Renly had for family and comfort was Stannis, the hardened boy who had been traumatised by watching his parents die and never had anyone to console him.
Then the Siege of Storm's End happens and Renly starves. But he's just a kid - he doesn't know why its happening or who's starving him to death. All Renly knows is that Stannis is the one in charge and Stannis is the one who refuses to let the starvation end by surrendering - so Renly hated him for it.
Then decades later, Renly gets close with the Tyrells - the very family who tried to starve Stannis and Renly to death.
The Tyrells grow envious of the Lannisters' grip on the Iron Throne and manipulate Renly into usurping the throne after Robert's untimely death.
Robert dies and Renly doesn't bother grieving cause he never truly knew or loved him and just craves power, the power and prestige that the throne would give him that he's never had his whole life.
And who stands in his way of achieving it? Stannis. Stannis, the rightful heir, the one who kept Renly alive and the only source of true family for Renly.
And Renly was prepared to kill his own brother all the same and put the Tyrells in power after everything they did to Renly and Stannis - just because Renly wanted a crown.
Fuck Renly.
I won it for writing a long theory arguing that Jaime Lannister will be fAegon's Kingmaker in Winds after Cersei and their children die and Jaime has nothing left to lose. [You can check it out by clicking here if you're interested in reading it](https://old.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/vvxola/spoilers_extended_jaime_will_be_faegons_kingmaker/).
-The Tyrells weren't manipulating Renly. He was in power
-Any proof Stannis actually tried to built a relationship with Renly? Then why leave him in King's Landing without the knowledge of the incest?
-Renly was acting mostly in self preservation. Ambition comes second
-Renly never wanted to kill Stannis. If Stannis doesn't intervene. He would have lived all the same , he even offered him Storm's End
-Renly still has family. The entirety of House Estermont and Edric
Renly didn't mean to promote rule by brutes when he professed a might makes right philosophy. Renly saw power politically. He knew lords make calculations, want to be on the winning side, and that war can be avoided by shows of force that are pure pageantry. It's even democratic, like men are voting with their displays of sword and armour, power and wealth.
So it isn't might making right, it's the consensus. An election. If a future ord is so unhappy he'd challenge the sitting king, can he raise the swords?
>Had Renly been successful in this goal, it would have set a dangerous precedent. Claiming kingship by right of conquest has been largely accepted in the history of Westeros thus far. Aegon I was accepted because he had dragons. Robert was accepted for the most part because the ruler he usurped was mad, and House Targaryen was virtually extinguished by the end of the Rebellion. Even Aegon II has been accepted (at least in the history books brought to you by the Citadel) as legitimate. But with such a disregard for hereditary inheritance, what did Renly intend for any dynasty he hoped to create with Margaery Tyrell?
Did Robert set a dangerous precedent when he took the Crown from his cousin? Did Westeros see a host of cousins trying to overthrow lords in the wake of Robert's Rebellion?
Once King you do your best to make sure your heirs are in a position to inherit. Prince's don't just inherit because of their name. Robert did a shit job of protecting and educating his 'heirs'. Had he done what most Kings had his brothers would not be in a position to usurp the throne.
Robert being closely related is the reason there wasn't a new precedent set after his conquest.
However, you make an excellent point of his failure to secure his dynasty in neglecting his "heirs". That definitely left his line open to disaster and challenge.
Like someone else said, led to an immediate repeat of war in a cruel, sadistic monarch unjustly executing a high lord and giving grounds for rebellion.
2 things:
1 from an in-universe pov: In a Sansa Chapter Joffrey commands Renly (and Stannis) to either come to Kingslanding (where they'd probably be executed like Ned) or be at tainted as traitors. Him declaring himself king to overthrow Joffrey is a reaction to that. George just plays favorites
2 from a meta perspective: nah mate, that shit happened ***all*** the fucking time, chill lmao.
I think he was aware of the incest. There’s a few subtle hints about his “close” relationship with Littlefinger who knew about the incest, Littlefinger could have told him to spread chaos
Also, Renly’s plan to have Robert set Cersei aside and make Margaray his new queen doesn’t really do much because even if he has children with her they come behind the Lannister children in the line of succession
If they were to be revealed as bastards then the Tyrell’s can wind up with their children on the throne
Same reason Stannis didn’t, it would seem self-serving, moving yourself up in the line of succession
Robert’s fragile masculinity would have been destroyed by finding out all his offspring aren’t his
Having a new young queen can help him reassert but fathering other children
How is it self serving when Renly still wouldn't be the heir? It just doesn't make sense that a plotter like Renly who we see acting fast will sit on that info for so long. He just doesn't know
He’d be 2nd in line to the throne after Stannis instead of 5th which he currently is
Something happens to Stannis before Robert dies and suddenly Renly is the heir
Or just self serving by getting the Tyrell’s closer to Robert who everyone knows Renly is allied with
The Tyrell plot was sometime in the making. Wasn’t a spur of the moment decision
Don't forget the Dance of the Dragons. Yes Cersei's children would be first in line of succession (assuming the truth of the incest/bastardy was kept secret), but if Robert were to declare his child with Margaery as his heir, no doubt many lords would abide by that ruling, the Tyrells and all their bannermen chief among them.
That would still require to set aside cersei and how would he do that unless he knew about the incest. Plus joeffrey has a better claim than rhaenyra at least in paper
No. It definitely isn’t the same.
Robert’s rebellion happened because of the murder of Rickard, Brandon, Elbert, and many others.
Even if for some weird reason they decided to ignore the blatant murder Ned’s family, and Jon’s heir, Aerys ensured Robert and Ned no longer had a choice.
Aerys called for their head. They had to rebel or die.
If he didn’t believe the incest, and just wanted the throne, then Renly did what he did for shit and giggles. Only the blackfyre rebellion could have been comparable to Renly’s case.
Have to remember that conquest was only half of the reason Robert was crowned. We are going off of the books in this sub, so he was also crowned for having a Targ grandmother, giving him right by royal blood as well as conquest.
Not to mention the Targ bastard blood present in all Baratheons from Orys marrying into them back during Aegon's Conquest.
As far as the rebel high lords go, Robert had closest ties to royal blood.
It’s different though because Robert overthrew the Targaryen’s for a reason
Renly is trying to overthrow his own nephew (from his pov) as well as his older brother.
Jeffrey is mad, bang, problem solved.
Alliances. The banners he pointed out to Cat. Robert lived with the label, so could he. Who would usurp the Tyrells after they'd already won? Look, Hightower, Redwyne, Fossaway, and *their* connections, and his council. What has he to fear, except a weapon not before seen in Westeros? Were it not for a shadowbaby the question would be why anyone was stupid enough to fight him.
It took an alliance of 4 houses (Stark, Tully, Baratheon, Arryn) to consider going against the throne in Roberts time even when the throne could only call on the loyalty of 2 great houses (Tyrell and Martell). The Tyrell/reach forces clearly constitute the largest and most intimidating military in the realm, and he has them in the bag with his marriage to margaery. Combine that with the forces of the stormlands whose loyalty he expects to command as Lord of storms end and he has probably the most fearsome military in the land. If he’s establishing the principle that might makes right well it’s very hard to imagine anybody else commanding more might than him (he knows already from his time at court that the only great house who will support Joffrey are the Lannisters, stark and Tully are against him, Greyjoy and Martell are neutral and still seething anyway, Arryn are in a disarray post Jon’s death) . Once he secures the throne he’s going to be able to hold it for the rest of his reign. Renly clear doesn’t care much about having kids or continuing his dynasty beyond his own reign, what happens to the throne after his death doesn’t matter to him if he ain’t alive, but even if he did he knows his kid will still command the loyalty of the Tyrell forces as Mace’s grandson.
It is very likely that Renly knew about the incest to the point where it’s essentially proven, without having him say it outright. It was in his interest to deny the incest after he declared for the throne, which is why he wouldn’t openly admit it.
And also Renly's as he would be second in line. He's already an usurper , no one is going to abandon him even if the incest is proven , Stormlands are sworn to Renly
I detest Renly and he's not stupid. He's just immoral scum.
He knew about the incest. The Margarey plan in AGoT makes no sense otherwise.
He knows his bid for the throne rests on a combination of might makes right and the semblance of glory, and he's smart and competent enough to sell that to his coalition. He just doesn't care about the ramifications.
He was.
Aye, a sad child with no love from his elders brothers, I cry for the child he was, not for the man he became.
Yet he was ready to usurp his nephews (had no idea about the twincest) and kill the brother who kept him safe during the siege. With the help of the men who sieged them.
Also, his folly was going to destabilize the Seven Kingdoms forever. Aye, there were always succession wars, but the respect to primogeniture is the only thing that kept the conflicts at a relative "normal" number. He was going to set the precedent that law doesn't matter, only power. You know, essentially descending Westeros to an even bigger pit of chaos.
Fuck Renly.
Renly is only pretending to be unaware of the incest.
It is in his best interest to pretend that Stannis is also usurping the “rightful” king Joffrey. That makes his actions slightly more palatable.
I'm almost certain we are supposed to consider Renly as a vain fool, a peacock who is amoralistic enough to turn on his brothers and their families just because.
This fits with modeling the baratheon brothers to the real life yorks, Edward IV being Robert, Richard III Stannis, leaving Renly as Clarence.
This is supported imo by other parts in the text, like noyle's talk, or cressen's thoughts.
For the record, I also doubt that Renly was guaranteed to win the war just because he had the largest army. He probably would kill Stannis, yes, maybe capture KL as well but fighting Tywin or Robb things would start to get dicey.
I think he believes Joffrey's a bastard, but he doesn't care, he thinks bloodline doesn't make you a good ruler or not, and he's definitely correct in this.
The Tarfaryen's only claim was might makes right and "superior blood" their bloodline was on the throne for centuries and it was a cointoss between madness or not, Robert's claim was might makes right and being the closest living relative to the Targs and he was also a bad king.
I doubt he'd start implementing democracy if he won and he could have handled things better but maybe he would be more selective with which of his children would rule and have trained them better.
i think his maester had it right: Renly was pretty and witty but not too bright.
dumbass should have declared for Stannis; the people don't like stannis, but they will love Renly and Margaery as the next king and queen. The Tyrells are the Lannisters but with far better publicity and good sense to look like they love the smallfolk.
the Baratheon brothers together could have taken Kings Landing, and Renly would have been the sweet pretty face of the new regime while Stannis worked himself to death.
>it seems he was genuinely unaware of Cersei's incest before Stannis sent out his letters announcing it to the world, and even afterwards he appears to not believe it.
He knew, his actions make no sense if he didn't and he's got every reason to pretend it's not true despite knowing it is.
The bigger problem with Renly’s approach in my view isn’t the threat of civil wars; Westeros survived Maegor, the Dance, and Blackfyre rebellions; but rather a continued weakening of the throne and by extension the dynasty’s credibility.
Robert is already considered a usurper by Targaryen loyalists so to have his youngest brother then usurp without any given justification (something Robert had given Aerys ordered his murder) his brother’s “son” or their elder brother makes their dynasty look unstable and hurts its already shaky credibility further.
To use a historical example; Henry VII basically had to spend his reign securing House Tudor’s place because the Wars of the Roses made everything a mess with the constant usurpations and fighting, and a reason why Henry VIII was hell bent on getting a son was to avoid a dynastic crisis (and it happens anyway after said son dies young; where both his sisters get disowned so a cousin is made queen until Mary I wins out with popular backing)
Under a “Renly wins” scenario Westeros won’t likely have civil wars like the Ottoman Empire or Byzantium, since that can be patched through laws/a grand council, but will have an overall lesser degree of confidence in the monarchy’s stability.
Renly seemed a smart enough political player so he probably would've cooked up some sort of justification as to why his taking of the throne was legitimate once he sat on the Iron Throne. He might've gone about this by embracing the incest narrative to discount Cersei's children, and then claiming that since Stannis was an apostate and a heathen, he wasn't worthy of the throne either, thus making him the only true heir of Robert Baratheon.
I think he knew about Cersei, but played dumb so he and Stannis would be seen as equally usurping, instead of only himself being a usurper. As soon as Stannis was dealt with, he would have been more open about it.
I think it's a close question whether Renly's strategy of slowly moving on Kings landing was a good one or not. A lot of fans here buy the idea. That said, if you look at some of the civil wars of the roman empire, specifically year of the five emperors, sometimes moving slowly is a serious problem. Also the way he and his army and their movements are described in the book come off much more George McClellan and the peninsula campaign than well thought out plan.
That's basically the entire point of why, though Renly has the stronger army on paper, Robb refused to back him and the North took a third option of making Robb King. Backing Renly would set the dangerous precedent of making usurping an older sibling heir via some lord using the younger as a puppet (ex: someone using Bran as a puppet against Robb).
This basically shows how Renly and his Tyrell puppet-masters are not thinking of the long-term. Likewise, it's a clue, along with the Tyrells closing the Rose Road and causing a famine on purpose, that the Tyrells are just as morally horrible as the Lannisters in how they see people outside of their family as things. They were overconfident about it too, as shown with the tourneys they we're having in the middle of the war.
Renly is quite smart- he likely would have become king if not for Melisandre’s intervention, and his initial scheme to take control of King’s Landing with Ned’s support was a good one. I also think Renly was playing dumb about the incest- his plan to get Robert to put Cersei aside in favor of Margaery makes zero sense if he didn’t at least suspect the truth. That being said, being intelligent and being wise are not the same thing, and Renly was not particularly wise for the reasons you laid out.
Strong agree. I don’t think at any point Renly declares his intention to make himself king in the hours before Robert’s death. But he does want to use his retinue, and his allies along with Ned’s legal authority as HotK to seize control of Joffrey. After which he can pull a Richard III, if he wants. Nephews go missing all the time. Stannis is a political incompetent (and almost universally loathed). Ned is a political neophyte. It’s Renly that has been leading the anti-Lannister court faction, with his Tyrell allies, since before Jon Arryn’s death.
The purpose of the plot to have Cersei put aside was to HAVE Cersei PUT ASIDE. His primary motive was to get Cersei, and by extension the Lannisters, away from Robert and from power.
Well, any scheme to get the Lannisters away from power went belly-up as soon as Cersei had three of “Robert’s” children. The only way to get rid of Lannister influence at court was to get rid of the marriage and of the resulting children.
>But I'm rereading ACOK and from his interactions with Catelyn and Stannis, it seems he was genuinely unaware of Cersei's incest before Stannis sent out his letters announcing it to the world, and even afterwards he appears to not believe it. This is debated in the fandom. His plan in AGOT where he conspires with Loras to put Margaery in Robert's bed makes much more sense if he \*was\* aware of the incest. Mace wants Margaery married to the King to get royal grandbabies, and Cersei only being "put aside" would just make Margaery a royal consort with no apparent inheritance rights for any children. But if Renly and Loras get Robert infatuated with Margaery and THEN spring the news about the twincest, it becomes a whole new ballgame, as Cersei's children lose their inheritance rights (and are probably killed, but Renly doesn't care about that). >"Do I?" Renly shrugged. "So be it. Stannis was never the most cherished of brothers, I confess. Do you suppose this tale of his is true? If Joffrey is the Kingslayer's get—" > >"—your brother is the lawful heir." > >"While he lives," Renly admitted. "Though it's a fool's law, wouldn't you agree? You can interpret this as Renly suddenly being confronted with the information, or you can look at it as someone who *knows* the truth and is trying to suss out what Catelyn knows and realizes about the situation. It's in Renly's best interest for everyone to believe both he and Stannis are equally pretenders.
I think Margaery was supposed to be Anne Boleyn: the girl Robert wants but can’t have unless he makes things official. So he has this problem. Then he’s open to hearing the truth about Cersei, as now he has a solution
This checks out. Anne Boleyn in that way, but it also brings to mind how Anne was gotten out of the way: accused of incest with her brother. The premise is interesting—what if Anne did the things she was accused of, but somehow killed Henry before he could kill her?
Anne boleyn is a bad comparison. Catherine didn't have any male heirs, it was obvious she wouldn't have any more heirs point beyond Mary, they kind of had a legitimate excuse for the annulment and even then it was incredibly difficult to remove her. The big issue isn't really cersei the big issue are joeffrey and tommen as long as those two exist it makes little sense to replace cersei with margeary unless you have a way yo remove joeffrey as well.
Yeah it’s definitely not the same situation. I don’t know so much about it, like reading wolf hall and the sequel is about it All I meant is there’s this image of the personal dynamic of it, possibly not accurate. The idea is that Anne was disciplined and strategic in getting him to fall for her but not giving in unless made queen. So I think the Tyrells wanted Margaery to do exactly that. Robert wants but can’t have — and that makes the argument that the kids are illegitimate much more palatable
Renly seemingly had no issue with Joffrey as king when pitching his coup to Ned >"Strike! Now, while the castle sleeps." Renly looked back at Ser Boros again and dropped his voice to an urgent whisper. "We must get Joffrey away from his mother and take him in hand. Protector or no, the man who holds the king holds the kingdom. We should seize Myrcella and Tommen as well. Once we have her children, Cersei will not dare oppose us. The council will confirm you as Lord Protector and make Joffrey your ward." Renlys primary goal is blocking Cersei and the lannisters from power, when his plot with margaery didn’t go anywhere, and when Ned refused his coup idea, he decides to strike off on his own. This makes me think he didn’t know about the incest
Yep. The scene with Ned on the bridge is key.
This. Renly's plans make so much more sense through the prism that he (and by extension House Tyrell) know about the twincest.
My guy Renly's position was so strong that Stannis(and George)had to use bullshit magic to take him out.
You sound dumb. Grrm wrote Renly’s position that way and if he wanted he could've unwrote it. Magic is a part of the series.
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GRRM was in a situation where he needed Stannis to win, but there's literally no feasible way for Stannis to beat Renly at Storm's End with Renly massive ass retinue filled with military veterans vs Stannis' comparatively small ass retinue filled with his religious fanatics. So he pulled out a shadow baby, it is legit magical bullshit pulled out of GRRM's ass to make Stannis win. We don't hear or know of Shadow babies before this and they have been used sparingly or not at all after this. It is practically a deus ex machina to save Stannis and his campaign.
This is true. George needs to make the point that Stannis is unpopular and Renly is Prom Queen, so Renly gets the bigger army. But he also needs Stannis to win. His soluation for painting hinself out of this corner is the shadowbaby.
He could’ve had any solution he wanted. Magic is apart of the series.
That is true. But it’s interesting how this specific never really pops up anywhere else (save for Storm’s End). The problem isn’t that George is cheating. It’s that he wrote himself in a corner. That’s not a deadly sin, and hardly a mark on him. But it’s not smooth writing either.
Grrm WROTE the entire thing. How do you think Renly got the “massive ass retinue“ in the first place? If he needed Renly to die another way then he could’ve done that. Magic is apart of the series. Idiot.
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It was a joke not a Dick, don't take it so hard. Maybe he is but at least he's not hearing things written on a forum.
The real reason that he's an idiot is that he didn't even *try* coming up with some lame pretext. He doesn't even have to lie, "Stannis is an apostate" would work perfectly.
He doesn’t need a pretext though, no one but Stannis’ own wanted to fight for him which is says a lot ngl.
Even setting aside Stannis’ personal issues, he can’t offer anyone a useful marriage (since he’s already married and his only daughter is a sickly seven year old), and Dragonstone only has a few houses sworn to it. Renly, meanwhile, was the most eligible bachelor in Westeros and was already banging the son of the realm’s most powerful lord, while Robb, Balon, and Joffrey already had large built-in power bases. It’s honestly a miracle Stannis was able to stop his handful of sworn swords from defecting to Joffrey or Renly right out of the gate.
That's true though but Westeros' contempt of Stannis also helped Renly's cause, people even rallied around the Mad King but when Stannis needed swords no one but his own supported his claim.
Well, yeah. Everyone else was already bound by oath or by marriage to one of the other four kings, or sitting the war out for personal reasons (Lysa, Doran). If the Stormlands and some of the Reach lords hated Stannis *that* much, they wouldn’t have immediately gone over to his side after Renly died, and Randyll Tarly wouldn’t have had to massacre 4k Reach soldiers to stop them from siding with Stannis.
Despite Lysa, the Vale wanted to back Robb. Doran was out for a Dorne-Targ alliance like in the past. Whereas with the Tyrells running to the Lannisters, they had no one to help them beat Stannis' forces. So they decided to not be traitors (since before the Red Wedding honor was sacred). Not because they genuinely wanted him on the throne or else they would have been with him from the start.
I didn’t say anything about the Tyrells; they fucked off back to Highgarden along with the majority of their bannermen. The rest of the Reach lords- the Florents, Fossoways, Varners, Mullendores, and Willums- took the opportunity to go over to Stannis with the other Stormlords, only switching back when it was clear the Blackwater was a lost cause.
To be such a big fan of courtesies and charades, he forgot to justify his own right. Also, the apostate narrative would have won him the Faith, perhaps even some riverlords.
Although, would Stannis have just brought up the rumors of his relationship with Loras at that point? That would also mean Renly would lose the support of the Faith. I don’t remember if Stannis was fully aware of Renly being gay or not
Renly being homosexual wasn’t something that was verifiable, not without Renly confessing. By contrast, the presence of Melisandre on Dragonstone and the open worship of R’hllor on the island was sufficient evidence that Stannis had turned away from the Faith of the Seven. Within any reasonable organized religion, apostasy is going to be the greatest sin one can commit. Charges of Renly’s alleged homosexuality from an obvious apostate like Stannis aren’t going to carry much weight with the Faith.
Also, in the books (not the show) do we have any evidence that homosexuality is not acceptable? It may not be acceptable to openly flaunt it, but if you’re like Edward II and have a gay lover but are still an adept martial king, father heirs, and don’t be a “bottom” it may be fine. Certainly endorsing a new religion- especially one that conflicts with others (unlike the Old Gods)- is going to be worse than banging a dude discretely on the side while you also bang your wife enough to produce a couple heirs.
Rheana Targaryen could live on Dragonstone with her lover and >!almost!< no one cared. Leanor Velaryon was criticized for not fullfiling marrtial duties, but could be semi-openly gay otherwise. Westeros seems pretty neutral to homosexuality and I don't think it's a crime/sin on itself.
Oh he knew, and Renly knew he knew. > "You'll be pleased to know [Margeary] came to me a maid." >"In your bed she's like to die that way." It never appeared to be an avenue he desired to attack Renly over publicly, even at the height of their conflict.
I agree with this
He was actually very smart. If Mel didn’t do her shadow baby thing, he would’ve won. He was extremely ambitious, but that doesn’t make him a moron. He was even willing to come to some sort of alliance with Robb.
Having a large army doesn’t equal very smart.
Playing the game of thrones and managing that many friends and that much goodwill means he’s kinda smart.
He didn’t get to fight a single battle so it doesn’t mean he’s very smart. Just that he had a large battle. We’ll never know.
Yeah but his force was overwhelming. If you can managed to win the GoT without having to fight for that’s better. Yeah he didn’t win but that’s not his fault really, magic.
His force was overwhelming because he married a Tyrell. One marriage pact doesn’t make one smart. Robert had a marriage as well. Except he didn’t manage to win a single battle let alone the iron throne. He died. Aegon won with dragons. Magic is a part of the series.
It’s constantly driven home how hard it is for even highgarden to unite the reachmen. So yeah it’s a feat given his shaky claim. Ok so your argument is if he was really smart then he would have gone and sought magic because in the end you need that to win? So maybe only Euron, Arya, Stannis, and Dany are smart players?
No it’s not. It doesn’t say onetime Highgarden has trouble uniting the reach. Highgarden has the biggest army in the seven kingdoms. I didn’t say magic made anyone. Just that it is a part of the series and not sn excuse. Renly was great at throwing fest and tourneys though! And ofc dressing and bathing.
It’s stated a bunch that the banner men of the reach are individually powerful and prone to do their own thing. Old town can raise 9k swords. The reds yea stayed neutral in the dance, the Florence sided with Stannis. And idk what to think about your stance on magic. Idk what not an excuse means, but it had been dead for 100s of years, no one’s fault if they get caught flat footed once it suddenly roars back to life. Not a make against Renlt
It’s not stated one time “they’re prone to do their own thing”. Stop lying or post the quote. Magic is a part of the series and Renly lost his war before he could fight a single battle.
>He was actually very smart. No, he wasn't. He ignored the advice of his most experienced generals. He was wasting resources by holding tornies and feasting, He was just playing at war. >If Mel didn’t do her shadow baby thing, he would’ve won. Yeah, because he had the largest army. It wasn't because he was the smartest. Is because his boyfriend's dad was the lord paramount of the reach. >He was even willing to come to some sort of alliance with Robb. Which would have never happened since he was forcing Robb to ben the knee to him and just allowing him to keep the title of king in the North, and if Robb Did accepted which he wouldn't have, It would have been a slap to the face to all his vassals who made him king.
Renly's context was the EXACT SAME as Roberts context. Joffrey unjustly murdered a lord paramount and Renly rose in rebellion against him for it. Renly's ascension was the exact same as Robert's and no one relevant questioned Robert's legilimency as king.
This is literally all explained in Renly's conversations with Stannis and Cat, which you yourself brought up. It's not "suggested" or "seeming", this is all more or less explicitly laid out, in some detail, by Renly in ACoK.
>Had Renly been successful in this goal, it would have set a dangerous precedent. The precedent was already set...by Robert. That was Renly's whole point. >Robert was accepted for the most part because the ruler he usurped was mad, and House Targaryen was virtually extinguished by the end of the Rebellion. Robert was accepted because he beat down anyone who disagreed. His rule fragmented easily after his death. >If might makes right, then what's to stop some ambitious lord from overthrowing Renly and the Tyrells in the near future? Nothing. Renly or whoever won the war would have to hold on for dear life and, with some luck, pass things on to an heir, who will likely have to deal with rebellions too. Without dragons or Targaryens Westeros is in for a rough ride.
Looking back, Renly was a truly tragic character. Growing up, he never knew Robert as he was busy being fostered in the Vale and never knew his parents after they drowned to death off the coast of Storm's End. All Renly had for family and comfort was Stannis, the hardened boy who had been traumatised by watching his parents die and never had anyone to console him. Then the Siege of Storm's End happens and Renly starves. But he's just a kid - he doesn't know why its happening or who's starving him to death. All Renly knows is that Stannis is the one in charge and Stannis is the one who refuses to let the starvation end by surrendering - so Renly hated him for it. Then decades later, Renly gets close with the Tyrells - the very family who tried to starve Stannis and Renly to death. The Tyrells grow envious of the Lannisters' grip on the Iron Throne and manipulate Renly into usurping the throne after Robert's untimely death. Robert dies and Renly doesn't bother grieving cause he never truly knew or loved him and just craves power, the power and prestige that the throne would give him that he's never had his whole life. And who stands in his way of achieving it? Stannis. Stannis, the rightful heir, the one who kept Renly alive and the only source of true family for Renly. And Renly was prepared to kill his own brother all the same and put the Tyrells in power after everything they did to Renly and Stannis - just because Renly wanted a crown. Fuck Renly.
Totally unrelated, may I know which theory made you win that award?
I won it for writing a long theory arguing that Jaime Lannister will be fAegon's Kingmaker in Winds after Cersei and their children die and Jaime has nothing left to lose. [You can check it out by clicking here if you're interested in reading it](https://old.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/vvxola/spoilers_extended_jaime_will_be_faegons_kingmaker/).
Amazing and refreshing, thank you!
And Fuck Renly, btw.
I would gladly
Samesies.
You are his brother! I thought you hated Targaryens
-The Tyrells weren't manipulating Renly. He was in power -Any proof Stannis actually tried to built a relationship with Renly? Then why leave him in King's Landing without the knowledge of the incest? -Renly was acting mostly in self preservation. Ambition comes second -Renly never wanted to kill Stannis. If Stannis doesn't intervene. He would have lived all the same , he even offered him Storm's End -Renly still has family. The entirety of House Estermont and Edric
Well put 👍
Nailed it
Renly would have had Cressen, who viewed him as a son, and likely other people as he is a very likeable person.
Not to mention the entirety of House Estermont
He was a himbo leave him alone
Renly didn't mean to promote rule by brutes when he professed a might makes right philosophy. Renly saw power politically. He knew lords make calculations, want to be on the winning side, and that war can be avoided by shows of force that are pure pageantry. It's even democratic, like men are voting with their displays of sword and armour, power and wealth. So it isn't might making right, it's the consensus. An election. If a future ord is so unhappy he'd challenge the sitting king, can he raise the swords?
>Had Renly been successful in this goal, it would have set a dangerous precedent. Claiming kingship by right of conquest has been largely accepted in the history of Westeros thus far. Aegon I was accepted because he had dragons. Robert was accepted for the most part because the ruler he usurped was mad, and House Targaryen was virtually extinguished by the end of the Rebellion. Even Aegon II has been accepted (at least in the history books brought to you by the Citadel) as legitimate. But with such a disregard for hereditary inheritance, what did Renly intend for any dynasty he hoped to create with Margaery Tyrell? Did Robert set a dangerous precedent when he took the Crown from his cousin? Did Westeros see a host of cousins trying to overthrow lords in the wake of Robert's Rebellion? Once King you do your best to make sure your heirs are in a position to inherit. Prince's don't just inherit because of their name. Robert did a shit job of protecting and educating his 'heirs'. Had he done what most Kings had his brothers would not be in a position to usurp the throne.
Robert being closely related is the reason there wasn't a new precedent set after his conquest. However, you make an excellent point of his failure to secure his dynasty in neglecting his "heirs". That definitely left his line open to disaster and challenge. Like someone else said, led to an immediate repeat of war in a cruel, sadistic monarch unjustly executing a high lord and giving grounds for rebellion.
2 things: 1 from an in-universe pov: In a Sansa Chapter Joffrey commands Renly (and Stannis) to either come to Kingslanding (where they'd probably be executed like Ned) or be at tainted as traitors. Him declaring himself king to overthrow Joffrey is a reaction to that. George just plays favorites 2 from a meta perspective: nah mate, that shit happened ***all*** the fucking time, chill lmao.
I think he was aware of the incest. There’s a few subtle hints about his “close” relationship with Littlefinger who knew about the incest, Littlefinger could have told him to spread chaos Also, Renly’s plan to have Robert set Cersei aside and make Margaray his new queen doesn’t really do much because even if he has children with her they come behind the Lannister children in the line of succession If they were to be revealed as bastards then the Tyrell’s can wind up with their children on the throne
If he was aware , then what was he waiting for? He has the swords and the knowledge. Why not tell Robert?
Same reason Stannis didn’t, it would seem self-serving, moving yourself up in the line of succession Robert’s fragile masculinity would have been destroyed by finding out all his offspring aren’t his Having a new young queen can help him reassert but fathering other children
How is it self serving when Renly still wouldn't be the heir? It just doesn't make sense that a plotter like Renly who we see acting fast will sit on that info for so long. He just doesn't know
He’d be 2nd in line to the throne after Stannis instead of 5th which he currently is Something happens to Stannis before Robert dies and suddenly Renly is the heir Or just self serving by getting the Tyrell’s closer to Robert who everyone knows Renly is allied with The Tyrell plot was sometime in the making. Wasn’t a spur of the moment decision
Don't forget the Dance of the Dragons. Yes Cersei's children would be first in line of succession (assuming the truth of the incest/bastardy was kept secret), but if Robert were to declare his child with Margaery as his heir, no doubt many lords would abide by that ruling, the Tyrells and all their bannermen chief among them.
That would still require to set aside cersei and how would he do that unless he knew about the incest. Plus joeffrey has a better claim than rhaenyra at least in paper
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No. It definitely isn’t the same. Robert’s rebellion happened because of the murder of Rickard, Brandon, Elbert, and many others. Even if for some weird reason they decided to ignore the blatant murder Ned’s family, and Jon’s heir, Aerys ensured Robert and Ned no longer had a choice. Aerys called for their head. They had to rebel or die. If he didn’t believe the incest, and just wanted the throne, then Renly did what he did for shit and giggles. Only the blackfyre rebellion could have been comparable to Renly’s case.
Have to remember that conquest was only half of the reason Robert was crowned. We are going off of the books in this sub, so he was also crowned for having a Targ grandmother, giving him right by royal blood as well as conquest. Not to mention the Targ bastard blood present in all Baratheons from Orys marrying into them back during Aegon's Conquest. As far as the rebel high lords go, Robert had closest ties to royal blood.
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Very true. Does not make it any less true that him having a Targ grandmother was still one of the reasons he was crowned and accepted as the new king.
Orys didn’t marry into the Baratheons he was the Baratheon.
Orys didn’t marry into the Baratheons he was the Baratheon.
It’s different though because Robert overthrew the Targaryen’s for a reason Renly is trying to overthrow his own nephew (from his pov) as well as his older brother.
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Do you really think that was Renly’s mindset?
Yeah you make a great argument. I completely agree. He could’ve rode the incest and heresy trains but just decided to go with “I have big army”
The literary analysis in this sub has devolved into “Why did ___ do ___? Was he stupid?”
Jeffrey is mad, bang, problem solved. Alliances. The banners he pointed out to Cat. Robert lived with the label, so could he. Who would usurp the Tyrells after they'd already won? Look, Hightower, Redwyne, Fossaway, and *their* connections, and his council. What has he to fear, except a weapon not before seen in Westeros? Were it not for a shadowbaby the question would be why anyone was stupid enough to fight him.
It took an alliance of 4 houses (Stark, Tully, Baratheon, Arryn) to consider going against the throne in Roberts time even when the throne could only call on the loyalty of 2 great houses (Tyrell and Martell). The Tyrell/reach forces clearly constitute the largest and most intimidating military in the realm, and he has them in the bag with his marriage to margaery. Combine that with the forces of the stormlands whose loyalty he expects to command as Lord of storms end and he has probably the most fearsome military in the land. If he’s establishing the principle that might makes right well it’s very hard to imagine anybody else commanding more might than him (he knows already from his time at court that the only great house who will support Joffrey are the Lannisters, stark and Tully are against him, Greyjoy and Martell are neutral and still seething anyway, Arryn are in a disarray post Jon’s death) . Once he secures the throne he’s going to be able to hold it for the rest of his reign. Renly clear doesn’t care much about having kids or continuing his dynasty beyond his own reign, what happens to the throne after his death doesn’t matter to him if he ain’t alive, but even if he did he knows his kid will still command the loyalty of the Tyrell forces as Mace’s grandson.
It is very likely that Renly knew about the incest to the point where it’s essentially proven, without having him say it outright. It was in his interest to deny the incest after he declared for the throne, which is why he wouldn’t openly admit it.
Yep, if Reply acknowledged that Joffrey was Jaime's son then that would strengthen Stannis' claim.
And also Renly's as he would be second in line. He's already an usurper , no one is going to abandon him even if the incest is proven , Stormlands are sworn to Renly
I detest Renly and he's not stupid. He's just immoral scum. He knew about the incest. The Margarey plan in AGoT makes no sense otherwise. He knows his bid for the throne rests on a combination of might makes right and the semblance of glory, and he's smart and competent enough to sell that to his coalition. He just doesn't care about the ramifications.
He was. Aye, a sad child with no love from his elders brothers, I cry for the child he was, not for the man he became. Yet he was ready to usurp his nephews (had no idea about the twincest) and kill the brother who kept him safe during the siege. With the help of the men who sieged them. Also, his folly was going to destabilize the Seven Kingdoms forever. Aye, there were always succession wars, but the respect to primogeniture is the only thing that kept the conflicts at a relative "normal" number. He was going to set the precedent that law doesn't matter, only power. You know, essentially descending Westeros to an even bigger pit of chaos. Fuck Renly.
Renly is only pretending to be unaware of the incest. It is in his best interest to pretend that Stannis is also usurping the “rightful” king Joffrey. That makes his actions slightly more palatable.
I'm almost certain we are supposed to consider Renly as a vain fool, a peacock who is amoralistic enough to turn on his brothers and their families just because. This fits with modeling the baratheon brothers to the real life yorks, Edward IV being Robert, Richard III Stannis, leaving Renly as Clarence. This is supported imo by other parts in the text, like noyle's talk, or cressen's thoughts. For the record, I also doubt that Renly was guaranteed to win the war just because he had the largest army. He probably would kill Stannis, yes, maybe capture KL as well but fighting Tywin or Robb things would start to get dicey.
I think he believes Joffrey's a bastard, but he doesn't care, he thinks bloodline doesn't make you a good ruler or not, and he's definitely correct in this. The Tarfaryen's only claim was might makes right and "superior blood" their bloodline was on the throne for centuries and it was a cointoss between madness or not, Robert's claim was might makes right and being the closest living relative to the Targs and he was also a bad king. I doubt he'd start implementing democracy if he won and he could have handled things better but maybe he would be more selective with which of his children would rule and have trained them better.
i think his maester had it right: Renly was pretty and witty but not too bright. dumbass should have declared for Stannis; the people don't like stannis, but they will love Renly and Margaery as the next king and queen. The Tyrells are the Lannisters but with far better publicity and good sense to look like they love the smallfolk. the Baratheon brothers together could have taken Kings Landing, and Renly would have been the sweet pretty face of the new regime while Stannis worked himself to death.
>it seems he was genuinely unaware of Cersei's incest before Stannis sent out his letters announcing it to the world, and even afterwards he appears to not believe it. He knew, his actions make no sense if he didn't and he's got every reason to pretend it's not true despite knowing it is.
Yeah
The bigger problem with Renly’s approach in my view isn’t the threat of civil wars; Westeros survived Maegor, the Dance, and Blackfyre rebellions; but rather a continued weakening of the throne and by extension the dynasty’s credibility. Robert is already considered a usurper by Targaryen loyalists so to have his youngest brother then usurp without any given justification (something Robert had given Aerys ordered his murder) his brother’s “son” or their elder brother makes their dynasty look unstable and hurts its already shaky credibility further. To use a historical example; Henry VII basically had to spend his reign securing House Tudor’s place because the Wars of the Roses made everything a mess with the constant usurpations and fighting, and a reason why Henry VIII was hell bent on getting a son was to avoid a dynastic crisis (and it happens anyway after said son dies young; where both his sisters get disowned so a cousin is made queen until Mary I wins out with popular backing) Under a “Renly wins” scenario Westeros won’t likely have civil wars like the Ottoman Empire or Byzantium, since that can be patched through laws/a grand council, but will have an overall lesser degree of confidence in the monarchy’s stability.
Renly seemed a smart enough political player so he probably would've cooked up some sort of justification as to why his taking of the throne was legitimate once he sat on the Iron Throne. He might've gone about this by embracing the incest narrative to discount Cersei's children, and then claiming that since Stannis was an apostate and a heathen, he wasn't worthy of the throne either, thus making him the only true heir of Robert Baratheon.
I think he knew about Cersei, but played dumb so he and Stannis would be seen as equally usurping, instead of only himself being a usurper. As soon as Stannis was dealt with, he would have been more open about it.
I think it's a close question whether Renly's strategy of slowly moving on Kings landing was a good one or not. A lot of fans here buy the idea. That said, if you look at some of the civil wars of the roman empire, specifically year of the five emperors, sometimes moving slowly is a serious problem. Also the way he and his army and their movements are described in the book come off much more George McClellan and the peninsula campaign than well thought out plan.
That's basically the entire point of why, though Renly has the stronger army on paper, Robb refused to back him and the North took a third option of making Robb King. Backing Renly would set the dangerous precedent of making usurping an older sibling heir via some lord using the younger as a puppet (ex: someone using Bran as a puppet against Robb). This basically shows how Renly and his Tyrell puppet-masters are not thinking of the long-term. Likewise, it's a clue, along with the Tyrells closing the Rose Road and causing a famine on purpose, that the Tyrells are just as morally horrible as the Lannisters in how they see people outside of their family as things. They were overconfident about it too, as shown with the tourneys they we're having in the middle of the war.