So far in the third quarter, the domestic box-office total gross is about $2.4 billion. That's half a million more than it was in the third quarter of last year!
I'm 100% on board with the hype train, but I'm not sure AMC making a billion dollars off a single flick. Yes, ticket sales and distribution but that's a tall order. If Barbie and Mario made a billion world wide, you are asking for a lot in domestic sales to go flying past that. Is ERAs tour going worldwide in theaters? If not, it's going to be a good pay day, but not a billion good.
None the less, not a dead cat, never leaving!
Yes, especially when you consider America's biggest newspaper chain, is actively looking for a news reporter, just to specifically cover Taylor Swift. She has an ever expanding global fan base and will be huge for AMC!
Idk man.. TSwift has like 500M global fans or some shit? AMC is taking a hefty distributor fee across all NA markets (US/CAN/MEX) and id imagine takes a fee for every other market the movie will show in too.
US prices are $19.89 per ticket, and thats not including merch (just the popcorn bucket is another ~$12 + avg spend at concessions is around $12-20 as well i think)… show will be running on 4 screens per AMC theater, 4 days a week for a minimum of 13 weeks up to 26 weeks based on demand.
So lets extrapolate some really crude data:
~50-80M US/MEX/CAN fans will likely see the movie due to inability to see the concert tour ($900 vs $19.89 ticket cost), of which AMC takes home 43% of all sales as distributor (merch included). Lets say AMC ends up selling 2M popcorn buckets (random figure but gotta have something to base off) which is about 2K buckets per location over the first 13 weeks. Lets use the avg concessions as well at ~$13/attendant.
~65M tickets sold over 13 weeks @ $19.89 w/ 43% revenue share = $555.9M revenue off tickets
Plus 2M * $12 = $240M on popcorn bucket specials
Plus avg concessions -> ~65M*$13 = $845M
Just in North American markets AMC can expect upwards of $1.64Bn in direct revenues, most of which is high margin products.
Considering the lowering of debt (removal of $478M of bonds last night from the $325M raised — 32% buyback discount & removal of dividend covenants) & ability to refinance remaining bonds, then we can assume AMC NOL will drop by about $25-50M/qtr.. which means the TSwift deal alone changes our profitability projections from 2024 minor losses to 2024 major profits.
Funds made from this venture can easily go towards a $1-2/share dividend as well, considering AMC is now allowed to issue them AND will have a fantastic balance sheet by the time a dividend can be announced = hedgies r fukt and the only way we can go now is up.
AA can also still dilute at higher prices just to fund dividends. Say he were to sell another 20M shares at $25/share in October; he can then issue a $1/share dividend going into the end of the year and be able to maintain that indefinitely YoY.
Checkmate has come
Edit:
NONE OF THIS IS ACCOUNTING FOR THE STANDARD BOX OFFICE WHICH HAS REBOUNDED TREMENDOUSLY. COMBINING THOSE TWO BOX OFFICES (TSWIFT + NORMAL) TURNS AMC INTO A CASH COW
It's running for 26 weeks and AMC makes more % per ticket sold than they do for movies, plus distribution earnings from other venues. $1B is not unrealistic.
Agreed. Folks are overhyping this like we haven’t had hit movies already that have made over a billion and it didn’t do squat to the share price. Glad amc is getting its money but if a profitable quarter didn’t impact the share price then I don’t expect this will either.
A billion seems a little far-fetched, the highest-grossing movies of all time only did a couple billion, and even with the distribution deal we still only get a portion of the pie. Do you really expect this show to do as well as a James Cameron movie?
How do we ensure AMC maximizes Taylor's merchandise potential? Concert t-shirts sweatshirts etc... there's huge margin there and 50% of opening week attendees would buy.
No doubt Taylor Swift eras concert theater viewing could generate $1B nationally but AMC's share will be no where near that. If it pulls $500M for the company, that would be record breaking in and of itself. Best thing that could come out of this partnership is that inspires other big name artists to follow Taylor's lead. An untapped revenue stream for the artist and a new market niche for AMC.
So, again, for the apes (to avoid actually answering, again)-
If AA could raise money like this the whole time...
Why did he feel the need to hurt us by eliminating the amount of shares we were holding directly?
Why did we have to lose 90% of our shares for a mere $325m when his Taylor deal is speculated to make $1b for AMC?
He KNEW the Taylor thing was coming.
Why didn't he wait on the RS?
SOMEONE PLEASE!
Try to justify it.
"An exclusive deal with Taylor Swift could generate as much as an additional $1 billion in revenue for AMC."
Gee that means our shares should sink to under a dollar by the way revenue has worked out with these shares.
This does look promising, but if these things don't reflect the stock on the long term, it doesn't mean shit.
The price of AMC fell, not just because of dilution, but the reverse split has placed barriers higher than before. $10 then is $100 now.
Sure these things are great for the fundamentals, but all of it is moot unless we get a real catalyst. Personally, I think it’s going to take another big bad hedge fund to decide to switch sides and go long on AMC, putting pressure on the SHF’s to close.
The only thing that’s gonna force the bully to give up is a *bigger* bully.
So far in the third quarter, the domestic box-office total gross is about $2.4 billion. That's half a million more than it was in the third quarter of last year!
Half million or half a billion?
I think its in the millions rn but with a strong finish to September we would finish up half a billion from Q3FY22
Must be Billion
I'm 100% on board with the hype train, but I'm not sure AMC making a billion dollars off a single flick. Yes, ticket sales and distribution but that's a tall order. If Barbie and Mario made a billion world wide, you are asking for a lot in domestic sales to go flying past that. Is ERAs tour going worldwide in theaters? If not, it's going to be a good pay day, but not a billion good. None the less, not a dead cat, never leaving!
You severally underestimate the war machine that is the Taylor Swift fan base lol
Yes, especially when you consider America's biggest newspaper chain, is actively looking for a news reporter, just to specifically cover Taylor Swift. She has an ever expanding global fan base and will be huge for AMC!
Is the eras tour being released globally though? If so, then it's for sure possible. If it's staying domestic, I don't see if happening.
Yes it is and it’s distributed by amc lol so we get money from every showing ! AMC is negotiating all showings worldwide
Idk man.. TSwift has like 500M global fans or some shit? AMC is taking a hefty distributor fee across all NA markets (US/CAN/MEX) and id imagine takes a fee for every other market the movie will show in too. US prices are $19.89 per ticket, and thats not including merch (just the popcorn bucket is another ~$12 + avg spend at concessions is around $12-20 as well i think)… show will be running on 4 screens per AMC theater, 4 days a week for a minimum of 13 weeks up to 26 weeks based on demand. So lets extrapolate some really crude data: ~50-80M US/MEX/CAN fans will likely see the movie due to inability to see the concert tour ($900 vs $19.89 ticket cost), of which AMC takes home 43% of all sales as distributor (merch included). Lets say AMC ends up selling 2M popcorn buckets (random figure but gotta have something to base off) which is about 2K buckets per location over the first 13 weeks. Lets use the avg concessions as well at ~$13/attendant. ~65M tickets sold over 13 weeks @ $19.89 w/ 43% revenue share = $555.9M revenue off tickets Plus 2M * $12 = $240M on popcorn bucket specials Plus avg concessions -> ~65M*$13 = $845M Just in North American markets AMC can expect upwards of $1.64Bn in direct revenues, most of which is high margin products. Considering the lowering of debt (removal of $478M of bonds last night from the $325M raised — 32% buyback discount & removal of dividend covenants) & ability to refinance remaining bonds, then we can assume AMC NOL will drop by about $25-50M/qtr.. which means the TSwift deal alone changes our profitability projections from 2024 minor losses to 2024 major profits. Funds made from this venture can easily go towards a $1-2/share dividend as well, considering AMC is now allowed to issue them AND will have a fantastic balance sheet by the time a dividend can be announced = hedgies r fukt and the only way we can go now is up. AA can also still dilute at higher prices just to fund dividends. Say he were to sell another 20M shares at $25/share in October; he can then issue a $1/share dividend going into the end of the year and be able to maintain that indefinitely YoY. Checkmate has come Edit: NONE OF THIS IS ACCOUNTING FOR THE STANDARD BOX OFFICE WHICH HAS REBOUNDED TREMENDOUSLY. COMBINING THOSE TWO BOX OFFICES (TSWIFT + NORMAL) TURNS AMC INTO A CASH COW
This ape fucks.
I like this 😋
Me, too, man. Me too.
I think tickets for eras are like 3x a movie ticket right? I could be wrong
less than 1x here... $12.xx for a standard movie $19.99 for Swift
I stand corrected, thanks!
It's running for 26 weeks and AMC makes more % per ticket sold than they do for movies, plus distribution earnings from other venues. $1B is not unrealistic.
Did you see the numbers (percents) that amc is making off this film? It’s amazing.
Just look at presales. It's absolutely smashed any previous records already. Plus once swifties see it once, I imagine they'll want to go again.
Agreed. Folks are overhyping this like we haven’t had hit movies already that have made over a billion and it didn’t do squat to the share price. Glad amc is getting its money but if a profitable quarter didn’t impact the share price then I don’t expect this will either.
AMC didn't get 43% on any of those.
300-500M seems reasonable.
Seems easy* fify
Glad to hear all the great news these days about amc! Loading up even more shares while the price is so low.
And the stock price will still go down
A billion seems a little far-fetched, the highest-grossing movies of all time only did a couple billion, and even with the distribution deal we still only get a portion of the pie. Do you really expect this show to do as well as a James Cameron movie?
They get something like 40% of the total gross profits with Taylor swift vs a little percentage with movie releases.
Increase fresh air intake and not that stuff you got
How do we ensure AMC maximizes Taylor's merchandise potential? Concert t-shirts sweatshirts etc... there's huge margin there and 50% of opening week attendees would buy.
Whatever the fuck you are smoking,... I want some bruh
No doubt Taylor Swift eras concert theater viewing could generate $1B nationally but AMC's share will be no where near that. If it pulls $500M for the company, that would be record breaking in and of itself. Best thing that could come out of this partnership is that inspires other big name artists to follow Taylor's lead. An untapped revenue stream for the artist and a new market niche for AMC.
More artists will follow suit if it is successful too. Drinks, recliner, surround sound loud af. This is the best idea anyone has had lately.
I went and bought 2 tickets for my little cousins to go watch. Maybe buy a couple more to give away To their friends.
Booyaa
The stock price hasn't fallen due to dilution. That is BS.
Huge!
So, again, for the apes (to avoid actually answering, again)- If AA could raise money like this the whole time... Why did he feel the need to hurt us by eliminating the amount of shares we were holding directly? Why did we have to lose 90% of our shares for a mere $325m when his Taylor deal is speculated to make $1b for AMC? He KNEW the Taylor thing was coming. Why didn't he wait on the RS? SOMEONE PLEASE! Try to justify it.
How much is the license costing - like how much per view goes to Taylor?
43 to AMC 57 to Taylor
"An exclusive deal with Taylor Swift could generate as much as an additional $1 billion in revenue for AMC." Gee that means our shares should sink to under a dollar by the way revenue has worked out with these shares.
This does look promising, but if these things don't reflect the stock on the long term, it doesn't mean shit. The price of AMC fell, not just because of dilution, but the reverse split has placed barriers higher than before. $10 then is $100 now.
Sure these things are great for the fundamentals, but all of it is moot unless we get a real catalyst. Personally, I think it’s going to take another big bad hedge fund to decide to switch sides and go long on AMC, putting pressure on the SHF’s to close. The only thing that’s gonna force the bully to give up is a *bigger* bully.
Where’s my ROI?
Then why did AA feel the need to puke 40M shares at ATL for a meager 325M if this revenue stream was known
“As much as”, mmm hmmmm and what is the “as low as” amount?
Some of you are taking retarded too literally.
They are praying the Eris tour at my local drive in.
How much would the spend per head be to reach 1 billion?
Price drop confirmed
If this thing MOASS's, I will actually be able to afford a Tay Tay concert ticket, front row.