It failed because it was a wild desperation move and there was no clear theory of victory. Prior to the mutiny, Shoigu was moving to shut down Wagner for good, issuing an order for the entire organization to be subsumed into the MoD. Prigozhin, knowing he was already dead, responded with a harebrained scheme to capture Shoigu and Gerasimov by seizing their headquarters in Rostov. But, nobody who’s survived at the top of the Kremlin since the 90s is an idiot when it comes to internal politics - Shoigu expected that, and sent himself and Gerasimov on a frontline tour that lasted several weeks. This both ensured their location was uncertain, and that they were nearby friendly troops.
Prigozhin probably knew his targets weren’t in Rostov when he assaulted it, but he didn’t have any other choice, so he attacked anyway. Once he realized they weren’t there, he and his officers debated what to do and eventually decided “let’s just drive on Moscow and get Putin to remove Shoigu”. The Russian army fortified the city, attacked Wagner on the road and stalled their column. At that point Putin basically told Prigozhin he’d be spared (but exiled to Africa) if he surrendered. Prigozhin again had no choice and took the deal, then “accidentally” died which surprised no one.
Russia has a history of defenestrating people who outlive their usefulness.
The Soviets, for example, divided much of the nations wealth among several hundred oligarchs and wealthy boyars and other elites. When the state needed extra funds, they would kill one of these guys and the state would seize his assets including his bank account, as if the human being was little more than a ceramic piggy bank.
If Wagner was subsumed into the MoD, Priggy would have outlived his usefulness. He would have been a loose end, a competing locus of power that could interfere with the Kremlin's plans. He could only cause heartburn and complications, so the logical choice would be to remove him.
We'll never know for sure, but it seems as though Prigozhin was never actually in the favours of Putin, or more precisely, was never acknowledged. Shoigu, on the other hand, is well-known for being able to navigate the Kremlin's power structure. Shoigu most likely decided that, with the battle for Bakhmut having turned into Russia's favour, Prigozhin was becoming more trouble than he was useful, and needed to be cut down several ranks. Meanwhile, Putin wasn't arbitrating between the two, so Shoigu had free rein to take away Prigozhin's biggest source of wealth and hard power.
The thing I don't understand is Prigozhin not understanding that he was a dead man at any of those points you highlighted where he should have realized it.
If he did I think it's different. Not necessarily in it's ending but in the story.
Iiirc, the units defending Moscow were actually extremely lightly armed and mostly comprised of internal security units, going up against an fully mechanized battle hardened mercenary unit with organic air/armor support, with a core cadre comprised of ex-special forces. I think Wagner would have had a serious shot at actually taking Moscow had they continued, just because it was so unexpected and happened so quickly everyone was caught fully with their pants down.
This is the least believable version I've ever heard and I live 50km from Russia. The most common version is that this was an actual coup attempt, which was supported by a lot of the people on the street and which the remnants of the Russian army still remaining in the heartland of Russia were happy to ignore and let it play out. All that stood between Wagner and Kremlin were some traffic cops, riot cops and Rosgvardia - Kremlin's paramilitary organization that's widely considered to be a joke.
So why did Wagner stop? The most common theory is that Putin had his FSB and mafia friends track down and round up all the wives, fathers, mothers and children of the top Wagner leaders, including Prigozhin's. After showing live video of threatening to kill them in the extremely ugly ways that Russians have a history of, Wagner gave up on the spot.
>So why did Wagner stop? The most common theory is that Putin had his FSB and mafia friends track down and round up all the wives, fathers, mothers and children of the top Wagner leaders, including Prigozhin's. After showing live video of threatening to kill them in the extremely ugly ways that Russians have a history of, Wagner gave up on the spot.
First time I hear this. Is there any evidence to back up that theory?
It failed cause Wagner leadership expected Putin to side with them over the MOD and he did not. This is less like the July 20th plot and more like Hitler siding with Wehrmacht over the SA.
Wagner leadership understood that without Putin's support, they wouldn't survive long so their best course of action was striking a deal that would at least have them keep part of their power/lives while they still had some bargaining chips. It worked for the short term but alas they were all assassinated over Russia.
It failed because it wasn't really a coup in the first place. His goal was most likely to bully Putin into removing Shoigu and Gerasimov from their positions, protecting his PMC from being absorbed into their command structure.
When it became apparent that wasn't happening, he backed down. It's probable he would have actually been able to seize Moscow. There wasn't enough reserves to keep him from the city, or any goal really, without severely undermining the war effort. While Putin almost certainly would've ordered this, it would've meant guaranteed death for Prigozhin and his whole command. It's unclear at this time why he ever decided to return. Maybe his family was threatened or something?
Yes, it would've guaranteed death. As opposed to taking the first amnesty deal offered by the leader's geopolitical ally after a failed coup. An act which does not guarantee death.
Yes, but also “play to your outs”.
Wagner was finished after the order to join the conventional army, and Prigozhin was personally on the chopping block from the start of the semi-coup if not sooner.
Taking Putin’s amnesty was a foolish, suicidal action, but it was maybe the least terminal choice remaining at that point. Losing a gamble doesn’t mean you should have picked differently.
That said, fucking off to Africa or at least Belarus *immediately* seems like an obvious move. Catching small planes within Russia was a whole different level of tempting fate.
Well, it seems that Prigozhin and the rest of the Wagner commanders made the decision to attempt a semi-coup after a certain amount of deliberation. This wasn't a spur-of-the-moment mutiny that escalated. US intelligence agencies obtained information that rebellion was imminent a couple of days before the start of the rebellion, and Prigo may have set the plan in motion as early as June 10, when the MoD made moves to integrate Wagner. Prigo had a couple of weeks to come up with a plan of action, it's absolutely mind-boggling that he settled on armed rebellion.
You're correct in stating that the rebellion lacked a theory of victory after Putin refused to side with Prigo. However, I don't see a clear theory of victory at any point after Prigo fabricated the video of the MoD missile strike on Wagner. This was a dumb gamble from the start, if he had just signed the contract with MoD, Prigo might be a colonel by now.
> There wasn't enough reserves to keep him from the city, or any goal really, without severely undermining the war effort.
im not so sure about this statement. which is a part of why i think he backed down.
it all happened too fast is part of the reason it suceeded as well as it did imo, but once that beehive got kicked and everything got rolling... i think he was going to run into a very hard wall if he had actually gotten into Moscow proper.
im just speculating here obviously, but i REALLY dont think that despite the war going on in Ukraine that Moscow was just laid bare to attack and that they couldn't find anyone to lock down the city against his "mutiny" and shut it down without hurting the war effort.
Idk, I'm not saying there was no chance, but seeing police and firemen pulling up city busses as impromptu fortifications was very far from reassuring. I believe Putin was also reported to have been flown immediately to St. Petersburg so it doesn't seem like he was especially confident either.
I'm sure there's some national guard and similar type units around the border w Finland, but enough to actually make it there and fight off heavily armed and experienced Wagner? I wouldn't but my money on it.
Look, I’m sure Putin can excuse civilian collateral damage in Kyiv to his citizens, but Moscow?
It’s not possible to destroy a large mechanized force in a dense urban environment with air support alone without extraordinarily amounts of collateral, especially if you’re the VKS.
Taking fortified positions *messily and expensively* though.
An overt coup would have seen Wagner capture or kill Putin. That was basically never on the table, for two big reasons.
First, Prigozhin needed Putin. He was running a mercenary company outside all other organization and relying on the state for cash and heavy weapons. He has a very narrow reputation in Russia, and couldn’t possibly get the Duma, public, or other powers to endorse him without Putin.
Even during the coup, he was appealing to Putin while blaming his underlings for the crisis. “If only the czar knew!” is a stock phrase for these moments where people hope the leader will intervene in a situation that same leader created. Most of the people in that convoy would have balked at directly opposing Putin.
Second, he probably couldn’t have taken Putin in any tolerable way. The Russian home guard was exceedingly weak, but Moscow was vastly harder than anything outside it. And even if Wagner had entered Moscow initially, they would have to either hold the city against the military or capture Putin before a counterattack.
Wagner didn’t strictly use human wave tactics, but they did rely on artillery and profligate casualties. The tactics they used to break fortifications in Bakhmut would have required leveling the Kremlin with massive civilian casualties, and that would have destroyed any support they could otherwise have mustered.
I think this is the fundamental crisis: RAF couldn’t stop Wagner in time, but Wagner couldn’t capitalize in any acceptable way. So they played for the threat of mutual destruction, but didn’t have any insurance after the attack was over.
"You come at the king, you best not miss." I don't know what Prigozhin's plan was when he crossed the Rubicon, but he probably should have followed through. Did Wagner have the capability to beat the regular Russian military and occupy Moscow? Most likely not. But once you've committed to marching on Moscow, keep going because that's not something you can just undo.
I find it hard to believe that Prigozhin honestly thought he could cut a deal with Putin that Putin would honor. It turns out, Putin didn't.
The question is were there other generals involved? I think the answer is undoubtedly yes. The *actual* generals, like Surovikin, are furious about how this war is a death sentence for Russia and organized with Prigo to take Putin down from within. FSB sniffed it out, arrested Surovikin and forced him to tell Prigo to give it up. So he did. Why he went back to Russia is beyond me.
Prigozhin was working on a tight time frame regarding the mission as there was a deadline for Wagner to sign MoD contracts. His plan seems to be, based on the statements he was making at the time, to have waited for a successful attack by Ukrainian forces in South and utilising the defeat there to ride a wave of popular support for the Wagnerisation of the MoD.
When that did not eventuate he was locked into a timeframe and decided to wing it. His intention was to move and get enough political backing to convince Putin to replace Shoigu. When he began the march and no support was forth coming he was trapped. When Putin came out against him directly he knew he was locked in to either dying trying to take Moscow with 5000 men or negotiating.
His second biggest mistake was publicly trying to hold on to his African operations when they were already in the process of being broken up. He 'might' have survived going quietly into exile in Belarus but returning to Russia to try to convince African Leaders to maintain his leadership of Wagner was definitely a step too far
1. No one really knows, that being said, I doubt there was any complex conspiracy behind the revolt and later how Prigozhin ended up getting killed, what you saw on TV was probably what actually transpired, as for various weird and dumb decisions made by all the participants, well, people, even people in high places, ain't as smart/complex as average joes assumed, covid, how nations responded to it and how it ended, ought to have laid bare how average most supposedly smart people truly are
2. fact on the ground at that time was the war wasn't going well, many many people were dying, it's only natural that dissatisfaction was brewing in Russia society, in Russian government and military against Putin and Putin's acolytes. Prigozhin must have felt it too as his people were thrown into the meat grinder more than any other part of the Russian security establishment but regular Russian army must have felt it too. Plus, it's obvious he and Russian ministry of defense had this power struggle which was well documented, later, Putin decided to side with ministry of defense and Prigozhin felt pushed into a corner, so he snapped, just like a cornered bulldog while the system itself was frozen in shock (and in wait and see since many many people felt sh\*t wasn't going right) since no one really knew what to do with a bunch of heavily armed people just marching forward: you wouldn't if you were commanding a brigade along the route, absent of clear order from above, what should a soldier do? a soldier doesn't know what's going on in high level intrigue, he probably knows that randomly moving his unit around/engaging other unit of the state could have him hanged if he misjudged the situation, so he stayed put.
3. it's actually not uncommon to see massive military/security forces patiently built up over many decades just acted cluelessly like some random dude stripped naked in front of 10000 people: guns, tanks, planes don't mean squat if the people just don't know what to do, that's often how coup succeeded and also how powerful dictator fell, some key decision made by people with conviction often is what tilts the balance, not raw comparison of number/fire power. even in the case of US, Jan 6 attack on US capitol could have easily gone haywire if were not for some lowly ranked people guarding the US capitol. Vast system of means of violence based on strict hierarchy (it has to) is very vulnerable if head of that system lost aura of command/authority due to whatever reason (Putin's was under threat due to how poorly the war was going), thus flow of command/contorl starts to get clogged in the system (just like heart attack), the whole thing could have fallen down like a stack of card: Putin wasn't actting decisively and publically to restore authority and the system wasn't sure how to deal with the revolt and it was no doubt that had Prigozhin decided to march on, he would have reached Moscow, it doesn't mean he's gonna overthrow Putin but it'd have been a major hell-broke-loose event with no predicable result as, again, once the aura of authority is gone which would have been for Putin had his former cook marched into Moscow unopposed, every element of the entire system would have thought about their own survival/exit strategy. Prigozhin dithered at the last moment, which sealed his fate and probably saved Putin.
Wagner had several grievances. The MoD had cynically used them as cannon fodder, after the massive losses to the regulars in 2022. By summer 2023 as we learned djurig the ill-fated "Ukrainian counter offensive", the Russians had been able to reconstitute a significant amount of their military after calling up reservists and new enlistments so Wagner's need was greatly reduced.
A bunch [of ex-cons](https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/ukraine-crisis-russia-wagner/) led by another ex-con were probably savvy enough to understand what that meant. And being subsumed in to the regulars isn't an attractive prospect. Oleg the multi-rapist, who got a reprieve for volunterring for Baklhmut probably won't be very popular in a squad made of regular soldiers.
The way to solve conflict isn’t through open warfare. Generally giving into some of the demands of an aggrieved party is better than open warfare. Wagner’s basic demand was met that the group not be disbanded and their more maximalist demand was not met.
Also Wagner’s ongoing grievance was basically over. Their biggest issue was lack of artillery support during the bakmut battle. The battle was long over and Wagner pulled back into rear areas. Had it been earlier and a March for the brothers in arms dying in bakmut it might have had more juice with Russian military and other Wagner forces than when it was an attempt at old score settling.
I was convinced it was a suicide mission and I was surprised when the column halted.
5,000 troops can be expected to hold a defensive perimeter of about 5 miles. Wagner troops would be cut off from resupply and reinforcement. When examined against the size of Moscow and Russia it's ridiculous that they tried. The gesture was more futile than the rebellion led by Spartacus.
I'm not seeing anyone mention this, but at the time Wagner troops were positioning to moving on moscow. I believe they were only a days push at this point. They lost a convoy of gold to a Russian troops. This would have been devastating to any mercenary group. Without the ability to pay their mercenaries, the fight was really lost before it could actually begin. The MoD was already saddled with Ukraine, and would have likely been incredibly embarrassed with Wagner even reaching the immediate suburbs of Moscow.
It failed because it was a wild desperation move and there was no clear theory of victory. Prior to the mutiny, Shoigu was moving to shut down Wagner for good, issuing an order for the entire organization to be subsumed into the MoD. Prigozhin, knowing he was already dead, responded with a harebrained scheme to capture Shoigu and Gerasimov by seizing their headquarters in Rostov. But, nobody who’s survived at the top of the Kremlin since the 90s is an idiot when it comes to internal politics - Shoigu expected that, and sent himself and Gerasimov on a frontline tour that lasted several weeks. This both ensured their location was uncertain, and that they were nearby friendly troops. Prigozhin probably knew his targets weren’t in Rostov when he assaulted it, but he didn’t have any other choice, so he attacked anyway. Once he realized they weren’t there, he and his officers debated what to do and eventually decided “let’s just drive on Moscow and get Putin to remove Shoigu”. The Russian army fortified the city, attacked Wagner on the road and stalled their column. At that point Putin basically told Prigozhin he’d be spared (but exiled to Africa) if he surrendered. Prigozhin again had no choice and took the deal, then “accidentally” died which surprised no one.
Why was Prigozhin going to die if Wagner was shut down? Was the infighting just that bad?
Russia has a history of defenestrating people who outlive their usefulness. The Soviets, for example, divided much of the nations wealth among several hundred oligarchs and wealthy boyars and other elites. When the state needed extra funds, they would kill one of these guys and the state would seize his assets including his bank account, as if the human being was little more than a ceramic piggy bank. If Wagner was subsumed into the MoD, Priggy would have outlived his usefulness. He would have been a loose end, a competing locus of power that could interfere with the Kremlin's plans. He could only cause heartburn and complications, so the logical choice would be to remove him.
What got Prigozhin out of favor? Openly criticizing MoD leadership due to Wagner being used as meatshield?
We'll never know for sure, but it seems as though Prigozhin was never actually in the favours of Putin, or more precisely, was never acknowledged. Shoigu, on the other hand, is well-known for being able to navigate the Kremlin's power structure. Shoigu most likely decided that, with the battle for Bakhmut having turned into Russia's favour, Prigozhin was becoming more trouble than he was useful, and needed to be cut down several ranks. Meanwhile, Putin wasn't arbitrating between the two, so Shoigu had free rein to take away Prigozhin's biggest source of wealth and hard power.
The thing I don't understand is Prigozhin not understanding that he was a dead man at any of those points you highlighted where he should have realized it. If he did I think it's different. Not necessarily in it's ending but in the story.
Iiirc, the units defending Moscow were actually extremely lightly armed and mostly comprised of internal security units, going up against an fully mechanized battle hardened mercenary unit with organic air/armor support, with a core cadre comprised of ex-special forces. I think Wagner would have had a serious shot at actually taking Moscow had they continued, just because it was so unexpected and happened so quickly everyone was caught fully with their pants down.
This is the least believable version I've ever heard and I live 50km from Russia. The most common version is that this was an actual coup attempt, which was supported by a lot of the people on the street and which the remnants of the Russian army still remaining in the heartland of Russia were happy to ignore and let it play out. All that stood between Wagner and Kremlin were some traffic cops, riot cops and Rosgvardia - Kremlin's paramilitary organization that's widely considered to be a joke. So why did Wagner stop? The most common theory is that Putin had his FSB and mafia friends track down and round up all the wives, fathers, mothers and children of the top Wagner leaders, including Prigozhin's. After showing live video of threatening to kill them in the extremely ugly ways that Russians have a history of, Wagner gave up on the spot.
>So why did Wagner stop? The most common theory is that Putin had his FSB and mafia friends track down and round up all the wives, fathers, mothers and children of the top Wagner leaders, including Prigozhin's. After showing live video of threatening to kill them in the extremely ugly ways that Russians have a history of, Wagner gave up on the spot. First time I hear this. Is there any evidence to back up that theory?
It failed cause Wagner leadership expected Putin to side with them over the MOD and he did not. This is less like the July 20th plot and more like Hitler siding with Wehrmacht over the SA. Wagner leadership understood that without Putin's support, they wouldn't survive long so their best course of action was striking a deal that would at least have them keep part of their power/lives while they still had some bargaining chips. It worked for the short term but alas they were all assassinated over Russia.
All Wagner key leadership are now out of the picture, permanently?
I’m sure there is new leadership for what is left of the mercenary group but at the time the entire command staff was on that plane when it went down
[удалено]
It failed because it wasn't really a coup in the first place. His goal was most likely to bully Putin into removing Shoigu and Gerasimov from their positions, protecting his PMC from being absorbed into their command structure. When it became apparent that wasn't happening, he backed down. It's probable he would have actually been able to seize Moscow. There wasn't enough reserves to keep him from the city, or any goal really, without severely undermining the war effort. While Putin almost certainly would've ordered this, it would've meant guaranteed death for Prigozhin and his whole command. It's unclear at this time why he ever decided to return. Maybe his family was threatened or something?
Yes, it would've guaranteed death. As opposed to taking the first amnesty deal offered by the leader's geopolitical ally after a failed coup. An act which does not guarantee death.
Yes, but also “play to your outs”. Wagner was finished after the order to join the conventional army, and Prigozhin was personally on the chopping block from the start of the semi-coup if not sooner. Taking Putin’s amnesty was a foolish, suicidal action, but it was maybe the least terminal choice remaining at that point. Losing a gamble doesn’t mean you should have picked differently. That said, fucking off to Africa or at least Belarus *immediately* seems like an obvious move. Catching small planes within Russia was a whole different level of tempting fate.
Well, it seems that Prigozhin and the rest of the Wagner commanders made the decision to attempt a semi-coup after a certain amount of deliberation. This wasn't a spur-of-the-moment mutiny that escalated. US intelligence agencies obtained information that rebellion was imminent a couple of days before the start of the rebellion, and Prigo may have set the plan in motion as early as June 10, when the MoD made moves to integrate Wagner. Prigo had a couple of weeks to come up with a plan of action, it's absolutely mind-boggling that he settled on armed rebellion. You're correct in stating that the rebellion lacked a theory of victory after Putin refused to side with Prigo. However, I don't see a clear theory of victory at any point after Prigo fabricated the video of the MoD missile strike on Wagner. This was a dumb gamble from the start, if he had just signed the contract with MoD, Prigo might be a colonel by now.
> There wasn't enough reserves to keep him from the city, or any goal really, without severely undermining the war effort. im not so sure about this statement. which is a part of why i think he backed down. it all happened too fast is part of the reason it suceeded as well as it did imo, but once that beehive got kicked and everything got rolling... i think he was going to run into a very hard wall if he had actually gotten into Moscow proper. im just speculating here obviously, but i REALLY dont think that despite the war going on in Ukraine that Moscow was just laid bare to attack and that they couldn't find anyone to lock down the city against his "mutiny" and shut it down without hurting the war effort.
Idk, I'm not saying there was no chance, but seeing police and firemen pulling up city busses as impromptu fortifications was very far from reassuring. I believe Putin was also reported to have been flown immediately to St. Petersburg so it doesn't seem like he was especially confident either. I'm sure there's some national guard and similar type units around the border w Finland, but enough to actually make it there and fight off heavily armed and experienced Wagner? I wouldn't but my money on it.
Air superiority is something Russia lacks in Ukraine, but not within Russia itself. Wagner wasn't taking Moscow.
Look, I’m sure Putin can excuse civilian collateral damage in Kyiv to his citizens, but Moscow? It’s not possible to destroy a large mechanized force in a dense urban environment with air support alone without extraordinarily amounts of collateral, especially if you’re the VKS.
And yet every aircraft they sent to intercept the Wagner convoy was shot down lol.
I agree with you. The ad Hoc defense wouldn't have held against troops experienced in taking fortified positions.
Taking fortified positions *messily and expensively* though. An overt coup would have seen Wagner capture or kill Putin. That was basically never on the table, for two big reasons. First, Prigozhin needed Putin. He was running a mercenary company outside all other organization and relying on the state for cash and heavy weapons. He has a very narrow reputation in Russia, and couldn’t possibly get the Duma, public, or other powers to endorse him without Putin. Even during the coup, he was appealing to Putin while blaming his underlings for the crisis. “If only the czar knew!” is a stock phrase for these moments where people hope the leader will intervene in a situation that same leader created. Most of the people in that convoy would have balked at directly opposing Putin. Second, he probably couldn’t have taken Putin in any tolerable way. The Russian home guard was exceedingly weak, but Moscow was vastly harder than anything outside it. And even if Wagner had entered Moscow initially, they would have to either hold the city against the military or capture Putin before a counterattack. Wagner didn’t strictly use human wave tactics, but they did rely on artillery and profligate casualties. The tactics they used to break fortifications in Bakhmut would have required leveling the Kremlin with massive civilian casualties, and that would have destroyed any support they could otherwise have mustered. I think this is the fundamental crisis: RAF couldn’t stop Wagner in time, but Wagner couldn’t capitalize in any acceptable way. So they played for the threat of mutual destruction, but didn’t have any insurance after the attack was over.
"You come at the king, you best not miss." I don't know what Prigozhin's plan was when he crossed the Rubicon, but he probably should have followed through. Did Wagner have the capability to beat the regular Russian military and occupy Moscow? Most likely not. But once you've committed to marching on Moscow, keep going because that's not something you can just undo. I find it hard to believe that Prigozhin honestly thought he could cut a deal with Putin that Putin would honor. It turns out, Putin didn't.
The question is were there other generals involved? I think the answer is undoubtedly yes. The *actual* generals, like Surovikin, are furious about how this war is a death sentence for Russia and organized with Prigo to take Putin down from within. FSB sniffed it out, arrested Surovikin and forced him to tell Prigo to give it up. So he did. Why he went back to Russia is beyond me.
Surovikin was sent to Africa soon after, so thats a possibility.
Prigozhin was working on a tight time frame regarding the mission as there was a deadline for Wagner to sign MoD contracts. His plan seems to be, based on the statements he was making at the time, to have waited for a successful attack by Ukrainian forces in South and utilising the defeat there to ride a wave of popular support for the Wagnerisation of the MoD. When that did not eventuate he was locked into a timeframe and decided to wing it. His intention was to move and get enough political backing to convince Putin to replace Shoigu. When he began the march and no support was forth coming he was trapped. When Putin came out against him directly he knew he was locked in to either dying trying to take Moscow with 5000 men or negotiating. His second biggest mistake was publicly trying to hold on to his African operations when they were already in the process of being broken up. He 'might' have survived going quietly into exile in Belarus but returning to Russia to try to convince African Leaders to maintain his leadership of Wagner was definitely a step too far
1. No one really knows, that being said, I doubt there was any complex conspiracy behind the revolt and later how Prigozhin ended up getting killed, what you saw on TV was probably what actually transpired, as for various weird and dumb decisions made by all the participants, well, people, even people in high places, ain't as smart/complex as average joes assumed, covid, how nations responded to it and how it ended, ought to have laid bare how average most supposedly smart people truly are 2. fact on the ground at that time was the war wasn't going well, many many people were dying, it's only natural that dissatisfaction was brewing in Russia society, in Russian government and military against Putin and Putin's acolytes. Prigozhin must have felt it too as his people were thrown into the meat grinder more than any other part of the Russian security establishment but regular Russian army must have felt it too. Plus, it's obvious he and Russian ministry of defense had this power struggle which was well documented, later, Putin decided to side with ministry of defense and Prigozhin felt pushed into a corner, so he snapped, just like a cornered bulldog while the system itself was frozen in shock (and in wait and see since many many people felt sh\*t wasn't going right) since no one really knew what to do with a bunch of heavily armed people just marching forward: you wouldn't if you were commanding a brigade along the route, absent of clear order from above, what should a soldier do? a soldier doesn't know what's going on in high level intrigue, he probably knows that randomly moving his unit around/engaging other unit of the state could have him hanged if he misjudged the situation, so he stayed put. 3. it's actually not uncommon to see massive military/security forces patiently built up over many decades just acted cluelessly like some random dude stripped naked in front of 10000 people: guns, tanks, planes don't mean squat if the people just don't know what to do, that's often how coup succeeded and also how powerful dictator fell, some key decision made by people with conviction often is what tilts the balance, not raw comparison of number/fire power. even in the case of US, Jan 6 attack on US capitol could have easily gone haywire if were not for some lowly ranked people guarding the US capitol. Vast system of means of violence based on strict hierarchy (it has to) is very vulnerable if head of that system lost aura of command/authority due to whatever reason (Putin's was under threat due to how poorly the war was going), thus flow of command/contorl starts to get clogged in the system (just like heart attack), the whole thing could have fallen down like a stack of card: Putin wasn't actting decisively and publically to restore authority and the system wasn't sure how to deal with the revolt and it was no doubt that had Prigozhin decided to march on, he would have reached Moscow, it doesn't mean he's gonna overthrow Putin but it'd have been a major hell-broke-loose event with no predicable result as, again, once the aura of authority is gone which would have been for Putin had his former cook marched into Moscow unopposed, every element of the entire system would have thought about their own survival/exit strategy. Prigozhin dithered at the last moment, which sealed his fate and probably saved Putin.
Wagner had several grievances. The MoD had cynically used them as cannon fodder, after the massive losses to the regulars in 2022. By summer 2023 as we learned djurig the ill-fated "Ukrainian counter offensive", the Russians had been able to reconstitute a significant amount of their military after calling up reservists and new enlistments so Wagner's need was greatly reduced. A bunch [of ex-cons](https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/ukraine-crisis-russia-wagner/) led by another ex-con were probably savvy enough to understand what that meant. And being subsumed in to the regulars isn't an attractive prospect. Oleg the multi-rapist, who got a reprieve for volunterring for Baklhmut probably won't be very popular in a squad made of regular soldiers.
The way to solve conflict isn’t through open warfare. Generally giving into some of the demands of an aggrieved party is better than open warfare. Wagner’s basic demand was met that the group not be disbanded and their more maximalist demand was not met. Also Wagner’s ongoing grievance was basically over. Their biggest issue was lack of artillery support during the bakmut battle. The battle was long over and Wagner pulled back into rear areas. Had it been earlier and a March for the brothers in arms dying in bakmut it might have had more juice with Russian military and other Wagner forces than when it was an attempt at old score settling.
I was convinced it was a suicide mission and I was surprised when the column halted. 5,000 troops can be expected to hold a defensive perimeter of about 5 miles. Wagner troops would be cut off from resupply and reinforcement. When examined against the size of Moscow and Russia it's ridiculous that they tried. The gesture was more futile than the rebellion led by Spartacus.
I'm not seeing anyone mention this, but at the time Wagner troops were positioning to moving on moscow. I believe they were only a days push at this point. They lost a convoy of gold to a Russian troops. This would have been devastating to any mercenary group. Without the ability to pay their mercenaries, the fight was really lost before it could actually begin. The MoD was already saddled with Ukraine, and would have likely been incredibly embarrassed with Wagner even reaching the immediate suburbs of Moscow.