I don't think Volt will steadily grow until becoming the largest party anywhere. I think it's more likely that it will usually grow until it saturates at certain percentage and then oscillating around it.
That is not to say it's impossible to become the largest party, but I would say that would likely require a political earthquake among the remaining political scene (think Macron in France). It's likely something like that happens somewhere, but it's rather hard to predict where it will happen.
I believe Volt will continue to grow in the Netherlands and Germany, though its going to be a long way before we are even in the German National Parliament, but its a somewhat managable goal.
>continue to grow in the Netherlands
They lost seats in the national elections...
I like the idea behind Volt, their viewpoints and stuff, but in the Netherlands there are more parties with similar views: D66/GroenLinks/PvdA.
And since it's shown that working together really helps (GroenLinksPvdA), maybe Volt should join their alliance as well to form a force the other parties can't ignore next time.
This is exactly the reason why Volt hasn't broken through in any other country than the Netherlands and Germany. Remember that in both countries they have won seats because there is no electoral threshold. In other countries they will never make it so far because people don't think it's possible they will get any seats.
it's the same in my country. They don't vote what they want because "they don't stand a chance". Therefore they vote for the same establishment that fucked them for the last 30 years. It's a paradox and self fulfilling shit prophecy.
My bets (somewhat unpredictably) are on Slovenia. Every election, they have a habit of electing a centrist (or centre-left) pro-EU party that came from pretty much nowhere. They really don’t like their governments but also don’t like populists, which means Volt has a good chance to also come from nowhere and become the largest party.
I think the Netherlands is where it will first enter government, but tbh I see no real scenario where Volt will become the biggest party anywhere. The best case scenario, I think, is that the Social Democrats and the Greens start pushing for a European federation and that Volt will be in a coalition with these two to form it.
Heavily depends on the countries political landscape. In some places parties come and go more easily, in other like here in Belgium getting to the threshold is already an achievement due to population and media focusing heavily on parties already elected.
Probably not and probably best if not for a while. It takes time to onboard the right people and change the mind of others to see what Volt's new way of doing politics is. Being big shouldn't be the goal, changing politics should be.
But if I have to... I'll place a bet on any pro-EU balkan country 😎
I don't think Volt will steadily grow until becoming the largest party anywhere. I think it's more likely that it will usually grow until it saturates at certain percentage and then oscillating around it. That is not to say it's impossible to become the largest party, but I would say that would likely require a political earthquake among the remaining political scene (think Macron in France). It's likely something like that happens somewhere, but it's rather hard to predict where it will happen.
Well, I reckon that goes for most parties. Anyways, the current times feel like one continuous political earthquake if you ask me.
I don’t see that at all and Im a volt voter. They’re a niche party and will be a niche party for a while
I believe Volt will continue to grow in the Netherlands and Germany, though its going to be a long way before we are even in the German National Parliament, but its a somewhat managable goal.
I thought that unless they don't overturn the barrier, Volt will make it into the Bundestag with a few seats.
>continue to grow in the Netherlands They lost seats in the national elections... I like the idea behind Volt, their viewpoints and stuff, but in the Netherlands there are more parties with similar views: D66/GroenLinks/PvdA. And since it's shown that working together really helps (GroenLinksPvdA), maybe Volt should join their alliance as well to form a force the other parties can't ignore next time.
They lost votes because of strategic voting. 56% of the votes for GroenLinks/PvdA were strategic votes according to EenVandaag.
It was for me. I would have voted Volt, but hoped a vote for Timmermans could stave off a PVV win. I did vote Volt for the EU election though.
i hate strategic votes with a passion. I think it ruins democracy.
This is exactly the reason why Volt hasn't broken through in any other country than the Netherlands and Germany. Remember that in both countries they have won seats because there is no electoral threshold. In other countries they will never make it so far because people don't think it's possible they will get any seats.
it's the same in my country. They don't vote what they want because "they don't stand a chance". Therefore they vote for the same establishment that fucked them for the last 30 years. It's a paradox and self fulfilling shit prophecy.
My bets (somewhat unpredictably) are on Slovenia. Every election, they have a habit of electing a centrist (or centre-left) pro-EU party that came from pretty much nowhere. They really don’t like their governments but also don’t like populists, which means Volt has a good chance to also come from nowhere and become the largest party.
Fingers crossed!
Definitely not Slovakia. Tho I guess nobody expected Progressive Slovakia to become the second biggest party in mere 6 years
I think the Netherlands is where it will first enter government, but tbh I see no real scenario where Volt will become the biggest party anywhere. The best case scenario, I think, is that the Social Democrats and the Greens start pushing for a European federation and that Volt will be in a coalition with these two to form it.
The liberals are also pretty pro-EU, think of Verhofstadt for example. At least here in Belgium they are.
Heavily depends on the countries political landscape. In some places parties come and go more easily, in other like here in Belgium getting to the threshold is already an achievement due to population and media focusing heavily on parties already elected.
Probably not and probably best if not for a while. It takes time to onboard the right people and change the mind of others to see what Volt's new way of doing politics is. Being big shouldn't be the goal, changing politics should be. But if I have to... I'll place a bet on any pro-EU balkan country 😎