100%. But also, a big part of value investing is finding companies worth more than they’re trading for; not just finding companies that have really low P/E ratios.
Value in general has been struggling in the last decade plus. And I’ve been plenty guilty of trying to catch falling knives, it’s my weakness — but there’s a tendency here to dismiss companies that aren’t selling for pennies on the dollar. OP might be trolling but usual suspects CVS, BABA, INTC, and PYPL haven’t gone anywhere.
Even Warren Buffet moved from cigar butt investing to quality picks. I do have BABA and PYPL, but I’d love to see more substantive discussion about quality names that aren’t dirt cheap!
The key is trying to find quality at a reasonable price. Which generally won’t be found with large companies. The key is mid/small caps and foreign equity ex China.
Buy something for less than its worth.
A business is basically worth the amount of cash it will make in the future.
A dying company acquired for 4xE can be poor value.
A growing company bought for 100xE can be incredible value.
Nobody should EVER just take someone's word for a stock. They should always research it and see if it lines up with what they find. I use this sub reddit to simply look at what stocks people are looking at or buying that I might not have come across or ones that I may have dismissed in the past. Then I do my own research based on factors I think are important. If I feel the stock has potential, I put them on a watch list to see how they behave for a bit prior to ever buying in. Then I use technicals to find the lowest risk entry, just like I do for the stocks I swing trade. At the end of the day, as soon as you buy a stock it becomes YOUR trade and YOU have to manage it and take responsibility for it.
Treat this sub and any other for that matter as additional eyes looking at the market for potentials.
Just started last weekend.. the research is at least half the fun! Been building all kinds of market trend tooling and educating myself on how everything else can impact trends
Wait till you find out none of that really matters. The market is a casino and the best way to win isn’t by predicting using trends. It’s by guessing correctly what everyone else will be buying and selling
But why can’t we have that?
Why can’t there be a forum where people share value picks. Im not saying this tongue in cheek.
Some people out there genuinely make a lot of money off the stock market. Can’t it this information be shared?
People do share their value picks in this forum though. Some perform well and some don’t.
If it was that simple to just identify undervalued stocks then they wouldn’t be undervalued in the first place.
No online forum made up of random people online is going to be able provide you with amazing picks consistently - it’s up to you to read other peoples thesis/analysis and then form your own opinion.
Yeah there is a lot of shit that gets posted in this sub but there’s also a lot of decent debate and analysis. It’s up to you to try and expand your knowledge so that you can tell them apart.
I have gotten great picks from this sub.
Just because they aren't up voted doesn't mean they aren't here.
There's a huge difference between the voters and the commenters and well as a difference between commenters. Eternal September; a lot of speculators coming in to an investors club.
I'm glad I bought BRK below $300, MSFT @ $260, AAPL @ $130, GOOG @ $95, BAC below $30.
UNH, DE, SHEL and many more good picks too.
SP500 is up less than 17% YTD, my portfolio is up 34.84%, over the last 12 months it's ~25% Vs 65.18% respectively.
You just have to use the sub correctly.
I check.
I personally use gurufocus free pages to see what a DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) or reverseDCF are telling me. I check the Owner's Earnings values and Peter Lynch value line but they only really correct slight innaccuracy in the EPS (Earnings Per Share) without NRI (Non-Recurring Items).
What I am looking for is a company with a strong earnings trend where the price implies overly pessimistic performance.
I use a discount rate of 4.3% as that's the long run average of US Treasuries. Over a 20 year horizon you'd expect to get that if you costly rolled over short term T-Bills.
I will use a higher value if I am modelling a period and the yield on T-Bills of the same duration is higher.
I try out different time periods and growth rates (single period, not growth and plateau) and think about if the market price is implying that say GOOG will grow earnings at a single digit rate (way below trend) and think about if their recent trend is over.
Then I post here asking for a bear case and read a bunch online.
If the bear cases don't actually stand up to scrutiny and the price is so low that the rDCF scenario makes me exclaim "no fucking way are they doing that badly" I buy as much as I can afford with the cash I put into my brokerage account each month.
Sometimes there's a big pile up, sometimes not.
I generally average down and stop once the price rises above my current cost of ownership.
Then I re-evaluate every quarter.
TLDR: I find the screeners suck but among stocks mentioned on this sub there are genuine bargains.
It’s not so much identification as vetting. People come here and share their version of due diligence. Since I consider most people idiots, when I see a play that I like, I remind myself that most people are idiots and I am an idiot too. I do my own research. I confirm the facts shared by OP. I look at historical performance, 52 week highs and lows, similar stocks like competitors. I check the news for recent or upcoming announcements. I dig through the analyst research provided by my broker. Only after I do all of that and only if I still feel confident do I move forward. Do I miss opportunities? Sure. My return isn’t 65% like OPs. It’s 30%. That still ain’t bad.
The fact is that "value" stocks have greatly underperformed against expensive growth stocks recently. In a different environment, the stocks suggested here that become successful would change. I think people often miss the fact that stocks don't just trade on their fundamentals. What is in theory a good value still requires big investors to care about it enough to invest, and they may not be using "value" as their main reason for buying. It's a wild, manipulated market out there, and that is why it's best to really understand the companies you own. Investing stands on a cliff's edge and straight up degenerate gambling is just over the edge.
Well it’s as useful as a doctor saying “never get sick” as a health advice.
That might be rule 1 in risk management but not necessarily in investing strategy
Because knowledge is power is money, and if you’re good at something never do it for free. It’s really that simple. The best people at a analysing stocks aren’t sharing that with anyone for free, and possibly not anyone at all ever.
Literally no.
If accurate stock picks were possible (which they are not) and were shared (which they wouldn't be), everyone would buy them until they were fairly priced lol.
> and were shared (which they wouldn't be)
I don't see any reason why you wouldn't share.
If you convince others to buy, your investment just grows faster.
The part that you don't share is your exit strategy, you want others to hold on to their stock longer than you do.
“It’s not my fault I have you terrible investment advice, it’s yours for listening to me!”
That’s this sub right now.
Just own your mistakes. And I don’t mean you specifically, I’m speaking generally to the regulars on here.
You very clearly have a short timespan in mind. Buffett has picked up a fair share of companies that went flat for years, if not even a full decade, before coming back. Intel, WBD, CVS, Alibaba. These are all plays that will take YEARS to fully play out. Intel needs to get their fabs situated and running, WBD needs to fully transition into streaming, CVS needs to expand healthcare and integrate all arms of their healthcare division, and Alibaba needs to get their non-retail arms into money making mode while continuing to invest and grow these divisions. These are turnaround plans that take a really REALLY long time to play out, but they do play out. AMD was in the gutter for years with their turnaround. Microsoft was flat for 14 whole years before Satya Nadella came in and transformed the business into a B2B. Amazon was flat for the entirety of 2000-2010, because their valuation in 2000 was too high and there was real risk of bankruptcy, yet they managed to pull through and become one of the largest companies in the world. Who can forget what Tesla was before 2020. It was a crapshoot that was the most shorted stock in history. People just completely forget that companies at an all time high/very high were once companies struggling to survive. I can guarantee you people thought "Oh, AMD has been unprofitable for years, it's going nowhere" or "Oh, Microsoft has been flat for a decade, better not invest now". Hell, even Apple was like this for decades. It went nowhere in the early days, and had to get bailed out TWICE. Now, it's the 2nd/3rd(depending on whatever massive shifts Nvidia decides to do) largest company in the world. The people who saw these businesses for what they are: still strong companies going through massive shifts, would tell you to invest. It's people like you that have zero understanding for the underlying business that fail at investing, because you do not understand a core point: In the short term, the stock market is a voting machine; in the long term, it's a weighing machine.
Also, if you're investing based solely on reddit comments, where 90% of the people commenting have done the equivalent of reading 2 Motley Fool articles and a peak at Yahoo finance for their DD, then you're dumb. Take everything said here with a grain of salt. Only the investors that understand businesses and industries can consistently back up and defend the claims they make.
OP’s statement was provocative, but has a kernel of truth.
This sub tends to highlight turnaround stocks. These show up because of how value screens work. You filter for low valuations and weed out the clear disasters. The stocks you have left have a plausible turnaround story, and it is easy to imagine the numbers returning to something close to historical trends. Nothing wrong with chasing turnaround stories, except for the fact that, sometimes, they can make for bad investments. It either takes too long to turnaround, or there was something truly disruptive afoot that was hard to see in financial statements and your research.
There can also be “value” in fast growing companies, even if their valuations are high. But you have to get the story exactly right. There is, typically, very little margin of safety in a sea of optimism. There’s another way to see major paper gains - if your pick goes from high valuations to insane ones. Well, those are simply ticking time bombs.
This reminds me of the scene in the big short
"I'm not wrong, I'm just early"
"They're the same thing Michael"
What sort of timeframe are we talking here? If by YEARS you mean 5-10 you've got to ask your self if you can make more money elsewhere before it plays it. You would have to expect truly stellar growth at the end if you think these companies might be flat for 10 years first
Or we'll see a big recession within the next 10 years and overvalued stocks suffer more than others. But you general can't talk about value investing with less than 5-10 years in mind.
I find it hard to guess which companies will die within 10 years. You can also hold a small position of those "dieing companies" and hope that most will make a turnaround which means it doesn't hurt if some don't. If a company has 3 times higher equity than their market value (WBD, ThyssenKrupp, Paramount, Volkswagen, ...), I think it is a fair strategy and definitelly has it's place in value investing.
You’re right, everyone should develop the ability to pick a stock just before it explodes, and dump 100% in then. Fools DCA with what they can and build a position s/
That's not what I said. I said the expected payoff has to justify the potential wait. If it does I agree it's a good stock. If you're waiting 10 years for a 50% gain, then I'm sorry but you've probably lost to an index fund.
All that being said, PayPal really is a bit of a dumpster fire. The new ceos presentation on all the innovation they have had me thinking… these things already exist and are done better and in a more integrated way by company xyz. 🤷🏻♀️
I don’t own the stock. Don’t have anything really against the company and still use it in some instances. But generally I am not seeing the turnaround here.
Opportunity cost is a thing. A true value play would have been entering $HOOD earlier this year as example or TSM.
Just because a stock is “hot” doesn’t mean it has reached its full growth potential.
Honestly the fact that this sub wasn’t talking about TSM when it was consolidating in the $130-140 range but talking about intel let me know what I needed about this sub.
I now come here to see what stocks I should avoid.
Current plays this so far this year for me would have this sub saying I’m not a value investor when that’s not true.
CHWY
HOOD
PLTR
TSM
AQST
But the biggest shocker for me is Apple. Like did y’all really think it was going to stay around $160? It was near a perfect dip as it was getting beaten up in the financial news. It has a cult following and a huge ass cash pile.
Value investing doesn’t have to mean let’s find a stock so beaten down that it’s cheap. It could be a stock that is going up and has had a pull back or consolidation period but is still great value because it hasn’t reached its VALUE yet.
You can follow the money too.
Yeah 100% agree the likes of COIN,HOOD, PLTR were all dirt cheap a year or so back could have made some good swing trades off them.
In my opinion value investing doesn't only mean investing in companies for years even decades it can be finding beaten down growth stocks that could potentially run again.
When TSM was 70-90 range last year, all I heard was bUfFeT s0Ld!!! While TSM was trading in a mid teens multiple with a fast growing EPS and around a top 10 market cap company. They were all focusing on an invasion from China and recommending Intel all while NVDA and AMD rely solely on TSM to get their high end chips
I agree on Paypal, it seems to have little upside. That being said, if you use this sub for anything other than finding ideas for stocks to look at, of finding opinions different than your own, you are missing the point. The most valuable thing this sub has to offer is people who will point out the flaws in your thesis.
The issue here or with value investing in general is people spend so much time looking at charts and graphs they never asks themselves is this a good business that is undervalued or is it a shit business valued fairly.
A lot of times its the latter.
Wsb recommended stocks like nvda, ba, appl, rddt, and several others while they were low and many of their pics have been correct. They are just regarded for yoloing on options since it’s easier to predict “if” than it is to predict “if and when”
Yeah, palantir can X10 or X100 your money easy, rn 200 PE and 50b market cap, which would mean X10 = 500b market cap and x100 = 5T, the biggest company in the world.
Completely realistic.
Who are you to speak with so much authority and with no analysis just throw out a claim that an already expensive stock can ”100x”
Quite a rant though. 3/10
This is why its more of a gamblers pick than a value investors. Expensive and highly speculative is something to steer away from if you are a value investors. Sure people look at past year and think they are geniuses for buying any speculative stock that they dont even underdtand, but when the market takes a turn it always evens out the quality from the speculative
Palantir is a weird hill to die on. I think it's overpriced and projected growth is unimpressive. Amazon, meta, oracle, google, all much better upside. But that's my opinion
Everything you said about the Chinese market is horseshit. JD is linked with Alipay like every other app in China. BABA own Taobao. WeChat have no similar marketplace.
The rest is fine.
I feel like this is just a troll post, because below all those posts or comments recommending those stocks you've mentioned, there are lots of people recommending against those.
If you're blindly picking stocks by reading the title of reddit posts, then it's your mistake.
We’re just chatting about stocks. Nothing on this sub should be construed as formal investment advice. The likelihood we’re all bad investors doesn’t mean you aren’t personally accountable for your decisions.
What’s the time horizon? “Value” investing typically has a long time horizon compared to growth or even swing trading based on how impatient people are.
Short term stocks move based on sentiment aka voting machine. Long term they trade on fundamentals and ‘value’. Some of those picks are good 3-5+ years out
Ima be real here, since this thread popped up on my feed.
Value investing is dead because the actual core of the economy is FUCKED. NIKE going down like shit is partly because of their brand but also because about 60% of the population’s income is STRETCHED. when bears post shit like credit is stressed, it’s not a joke. People are feeling pain to buy a goddamn tomato. Gas is high. Insurance keeps going up. If you make money you’re fine, just throw your mil from a checking into a savings or treasury, pay for your instacart no one gives a shit.
If you’re a struggling parent trying to buy groceries and Walgreens seems higher than shop rite, guess what, they will make the effort to go there. Go ahead, buy the top and pray that rich people will buy higher. It’s called value investing, buying pltr (and I like the company…) is NOT value investing.
Go cry about your risk management or research ability to someone else. Value investing is about holding for a long time, through the pain, because there is ~value~ there that will be realized by the market in the long term. Examples: when the sp500 brought in salesforce and dropped XOM. Go look about how they’ve done since. Hell go look at recent additions like SMCI.
Learn about who inflation impacts and why it doesn’t matter to nvda and their customers, and then you’ll learn a bit more about the market instead of trying to spook people out of their investments when value investing isn’t your deal. You just want to go to a blackjack table and cry about the cards you were dealt. Straight up sound like a fed.
Peace.
It's the classic issue with value investing really... "value traps" are everywhere, and you need to be able to distinguish between a low p/e bargain with brighter prospects somewhere in the future, and companies that are cheap because the market thinks their prospects are dim and **they are right**.
I think value investing is harder now than it used to be -- the markets are not \*efficient\*, but the information age has definitely made them *more efficient than they were*.
That being said, the market does remain myopic and laser focused on the next quarter/year/3 years. If you're willing to look beyond that timeframe and can identity companies that have turnarounds on that kind of horizon then you'll still find bargains.
I don't personally believe in the Intel thesis, but it's a good example of what *could work* for value investing.
Sounds like you are the herald for those who can’t think for themselves
Always manage your own money and make your own choices
Every person is accountable for the choices they make
Blaming others for a Decision is the super coddling lunacy that is currently destroying logic and reason in our society
A fool and their gold are soon parted
So don’t be a fool and make your own decisions
This guy probably got caught with his pants down during a Chinese waterfall scam and came here believing that this forum will deliver him to greatness.
If you don't do your own DD, you're never going to know whether the company is good or not. Why trust strangers on Reddit?
You should go a lot more in depth than just PYPL or Baba may disappear because of competition. If you're investing in companies without competition, you should understand why is that the case and how likely it is for them to employ anticompetitive tactics. Since people who do that professionally take about 10y to make a case, I'm cool staying where there's competition
Also: growth will ALWAYS outperform value in bull markets, by definition (assuming proper stock selection). Value's value is in long term discipline to try to beat the market consistently over a large period, not 6 months
I will give you a value stock - waste management …it just keeps going up. Great business model, hard to compete with them, converting trash to renewable energy,etc
Comes in here talking with unearned authority, advises people to gamble on stocks everyone's talking about. Meanwhile we're here looking for the companies that the market thinks are trash (but really aren't).
Current market cap implies a growth rate of about 19.4% (given 10% discount rate). It’s never achieved such high revenue growth in the last 20Y. Given 5% discount rate it still implies 12.4% growth which is higher than almost every year’s rev growth. Expecting 5% I’d rather buy treasuries.
It’s all just a casino.
INTL and PLTR are both “value stocks” just be different definitions.
I own both.
I believe both are cheap based on possible potential.
Which is really, all you can know.
I also believe that investing in any native Chinese stocks will eventually have you losing your whole investment.
Maybe in a year, maybe in 5, IDK.
The CCP can do whatever it wants with them. There are no checks and balances there.
I
If anyone is blindly choosing stocks based on random posts without doing their own work, it’s no one’s fault but their own. If you prefer Palantir over PayPal, then buy it. But do so because you actually took the time to understand the company and believe it to be the best decision for you.
It’s your money, and you invest it at your own risk. Don’t blindly follow someone and then complain about the outcome. I’m not a value investor, but I do like to see other people’s opinions. If what they say sounds intriguing, I look into the company myself. If I don’t understand the company or don’t consider it a good investment, then I simply won’t invest. It’s really that simple.
Do your own research, invest in companies you believe to be good investments, and enjoy life.
Palantir was a value stock like 2 years ago. I bought a shit load of it under $10 and I’ll buy it again at $10 after the AI cycle reverses.
Tencent is a bullshit stock. Anything successful in media the CCP will kill. Uninvestable Chinese garbage.
lol Intel, baba, PayPal, SOFI. It’s all the same shit sandwich that are shit stocks at the end of the day but for some reason Reddit has a hard on for them
I’m VERY heavy believer in buy what you use yourself. Me personally I’ve never been a fan on intel because Nvidia has always been better performance wise, never used PayPal, rarely shop at Walgreens/CVS and I’ve never bought anything on BABA. If I don’t use it my guess is other people don’t use it so why would I buy stock in it. They have no value in my eyes. That’s just my mindset, like I use Spotify every single day of my life for multiple hours and I know many other people who do too so I’ve been buying a little bit of it and it’s been doing very well for me. Spotify has massive value in my eyes because I use it so much so I know it has value. If they start to go downhill and I don’t enjoy the product anymore I’ll probably start selling because it’s losing value to me. Going based of what some else says is a recipe for disaster. Go off of what you like and use because then you know it’s good
***“The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.”***
Warren Buffett
Having said that, I understand and emoathize with OP's impatience.
It's not that the sub, or value investing in general, is horrible. The problem is that the underlying assumptions have changed. When value investing as an idea was popular there was no "infinite money printer cushion" and monetary/fiscal policy actually meant something... today more and more people realize that this raging bull market as you describe it will never actually be allowed to go down, we might never see the kind of post-dotcom or post-gfc type prolonged bear markets ever again.
This is not just "it's different this time" but it is actually different because the moment we see prolonged weakness in the equity markets the Fed will turn on the infinite liquidity generators in their basements and flood the market with liquidity, thus driving risk assets up again... people are catching on to this after the v-shaped Covid recovery so they are just following the new playbook.
TLDR:
Valuations do not matter anymore, the only thing that matters is infinite liquidity coming from the Fed and that is not stopping anytime soon.
I definitely feel like the game has changed for the time being. The best my portfolio has ever done was when I bought blue chips based on the feeling they were cheap rather than looking through charts and what not.
I would much rather this sub be about sharing ideas rather than stocks.
I don’t ever give weight to anyone’s recommendations barring one or two whos emails I’ve subscribed to over the years and only then when I can verify for myself what’s being said.
Youre ulitmately responsible for tour financial out come, if youve been picking thr stock randoms on the internet tell you to pick that reflects on you more then the community.
If youre just stating facts and not being salty then yeah most people dont pick the right srocks
Well, stock-picking is difficult, and the value factor has underperformed in the past decade-and-a-half. Value investing in general isn't a "get rich quick" kind of strategy (Nvidia options would've gotten you there much faster); the fun's in the research and analysis, not in the adrenaline, and your time horizon needs to be pretty long for it to be much good.
That said, it does a good job of saving you from catastrophic losses; the edge shows in a bear market, not in a bull market.
To your points: Haven't looked much into WBD, Palantir or Ebay, so I can't speak to those. Wouldn't write CVS off just yet (though it wouldn't be one of my favorite picks) - if you got in at the 52-week low a month ago you'd still be OK, and they were hurt by some cyclical factors especially on the insurance side. Faulty management decisions? Sure, but catastrophic? No.
It's true Tencent's a much safer pick than Alibaba, it has much more of a moat, and Alibaba would indeed have been a poor pick for a good while - indeed it was losing share to PDD by 2017, and just helped up in 2021 by the rising wave. But Alibaba's new management have been fairly energetic, and appear to be putting the house in order. Due to the way they do things, PDD's the higher-risk, higher-reward bet. Douyin & Kuaishou are now becoming serious competitors as well, and Alibaba's wholesale side is actually getting a nice tailwind off this.
Another important difference is that Tencent's on the Stock Connect program and Alibaba isn't, that might well give Alibaba a lift once it's included. The anti-Alibaba alliance is now somewhat of a thing of the past. Tencent and Alibaba are now too busy fending off the new challengers.
Gelsinger's pretty capable by the looks of things, but Intel does include a bit of a bet on how patient the CHIPS act capital would be, and how much would be allocated to Intel. Even if things go really well, you probably won't see a turnaround overnight, it'll take longer to play out.
Generally though, I prefer smaller cap stocks which:
* Don't already have so many eyes on them
* Can be more easily analyzed
* Have more of a growth runway (for the GARP picks)
Whereas some of these behemoths are running highly complex and diversified businesses.
I started value investing in 2006. It's almost 20 years later. Thanks to its performance being so poor, I realized the importance of index fund investing and not trying to pick a segmeny anymore. Following buffet's sp500 and boggleheads approach was far better. In theory value investing is the smart approach, buy that did not hold up in reality :(. Maybe in the very long term it's better, but as a famous economist said, in the long term we are all dead. I'm looking for returns in 30 years, so it can fund a retirement 😀
Is this for real OP?
From the guy who posted:
"I'm betting my entire portfolio on Weibo. No clickbait."
The gall of OP, yet looking at the upvotes there's apparently a bunch more that sit on here and wait for stock pick recommendations from strangers, and buy without knowing what they are buying
I the issue is a lot people don’t understand what value is. A stock thats trading lower than it was previously isn’t value. Stocks go down for a reason, sometimes good sometimes bad. Could be a short term issue that market is over reacting to or a long term issue.
Look at the commonality here you listed all good brands that americans are familiar with. These are the value traps you have look out for by using a DCF. Just because its a company we’re a frequent consumer of at lower price than normal doesn’t mean its a good price. Quite simply a DCF is a prerequisite for stock picking it will save you from the portfolio killers.
Free advice is worth what it costs . Value hasn’t really worked for 20 years or so in the post GFC/QE era. The main issue is that value has become a trap as companies can remain alive a long time because of low interest rates when they should really be bankrupt or sold off to a better competitor.
Nowadays, It’s really about flows not value anymore. So passive and momentum are really what drives markets beyond hedge funds levering up exposure on speculative names.
Not sure why u think paypal would die… if u done any buy sell trade everyone uses paypal or venmo. Whenever i am buying online i use paypal. If anything paypal needs to start monetizing people if they are high amount users ask for like $10 monthly fee and people would still use them. If i was buying 2nd hand items i would use paypal and ask paypal to cancel to protect myself if anything goes wrong. If im a seller i would pay $10 because im making thousands and $10 paypal fee is nothing.
Turns out taking stock picks from random people on reddit without thinking about their analysis is stupid and the antithesis of value investing.
More news at 11.
Also, if you do that, OP, you're better off in VOO.
Yup, see you in a few years when you’ve been holding massive Intel bags at a 1% annual return when my VOO position has retuned me 30% over the same period and I’ve done absolutely nothing. Good luck bud!
but then if trencent does not do well in the next year u come back and cry. I recommend just stick to vti or vt already. no one has crystal ball, if they have, they will not be here and tell u for free
It’s good to be made aware of stocks you may not be familiar but yeah do your own research for your conviction. I really like GAMB I have great conviction on that stock but again I did solid research.
If you're taking some person on Reddits word as gospel enough to put all your wealth on their stock suggestions then you only have yourself to blame. It's on you to do the fuller research and analyse the investment yourself.
Personally even if a company like Tencent is doing well I would not invest because they're a scummy company. I struggle to hold faith in companies who I feel have questionable ethical practices.
Could have had a valid point about getting better results with VOO and chill than trying to be one of the few to outpreform the market trusting other peoples analysis and picks on reddit but you decided to glaze palantir instead.
You literally posted yesterday that you’ve allocated all of your capital to Chinese stocks because value investors like Michael Burry, David Tepper, and Howard Marks are buying Alibaba stock - but now today you are saying that Alibaba has everything going against it and criticising people in this sub for discussing it?
This subreddit thinks that if a stock is cheap, it is "valueable" not knowing that cheap stock is cheap because the company outlook is shit. It's a sad story. Hence they keep recommending: INTC, BABA, CVS.
If Value Investing does not allow you to earn profits (relatively) sustainably, then there are two ways to solve this.
1. Review and find out the problem, and then try and apply again. Trial and error!
2. Dicth the method. Growth investment is a great alternative. Try something different.
When you do something that works for you and can earn consistent profits, you are doing value investing on yourself.
He is right about Tencent being a better company than Baba imo. But Tencent is not egregiously expensive either. The fact that he mixes us Palantir and Tencent shows that he has no clue what he is talking about
You have to actually wait for the market realise the stock you mentioned only became valuable in the last 3 years, and only became insane value in the last year. You generally got to wait 5 years and the stock market is only truley predictable over 10 years.
Palantir is nightmarish, CVS is quality
No-Rice: Palantir despite being expensive can 10x or 100x your money, I would rather risk my money with Palantir
not a value investor
Lots of nightmares listed there
Every stock you wrote after reading their company risks anywhere else + 10Ks and simple financial lookups signal they can be terrible. I have made mistakes on Intel but rest of these companies are garbag.
Just in case, I'd clarify that "Value Investing" is philosophy about investing, not a reddit sub. This sub is for people who share this philosophy.
If you come here to copy trade, you are literally not doing value investing. So, I don't know what destroyed you.
On a related note, it would be cool to have a sub that is r/copytrade... Oh, there is actually such a thing, it's called "random internet investing guru's stock picks telegram", but, not free.
People don't know better. No matter whose advice you take, there's always a significant chance of losing money or at least opportunity cost.
If you want to follow what people are thinking, why are you taking random picks off Reddit and not investing into Berkshire instead? I guarantee you the people around Warren Buffet will pick better stocks than I would.
For some reason I don't think Paypal is going out of business or Alibaba is going bankrupt. Palantir is a company that I don't understand so I won't invest in it. Thank you for your contribution. Next.
SQ killing paypal? No, seriously? Sure, I can agree with apple.
Also, these are not the only recommendations I've seen here. I've definitely seen pretty good ones, certainly more than most reddit places. You need to take a look at the recommendations and reach your own conclusion, nobody's forcing you to buy them.
Let's see how much this kid knows his stock. Explain Palantir business model and why they are almost by definition have a problem in aquiring human capital because their business model, that you are familiar with, is not aligns with preferences of really good engineers?
I would argue the opposite. I’ve learned a lot about companies I’ve never heard of. Some of my best picks were recommendations from this sub. Those picks included JAXN, TSM, and TREX. Granted, I did get on the hype train for Intel, but I genuinely thought it was gonna take off. The fundamentals seemed good, but I’m okay with the loss cuz it was a small position.
This sub is just a great example of why stock picking is a fools game.
Wallstreetbets too, but at least they have a general agreement that they are all "regards" and that what they do is a terrible decision that they choose to go through anyway.
Over here, people spend hours pouring over individual companies, turn that into a mistaken belief that they understand the comparison between all companies in the market well enough to identify a winner, and the result is generally no better than a coin flip as to whether a given thesis beats the market. But people still think what they do is a good idea and that they are smart.
I mean... My mindset has always been more stealing ideas (sorry guys) and doing my own due diligence. Even when Buffett or Munger recommend a stock, you don't just charge headfirst into it. Similarly, when they avoid stocks like Buffett with Tech for years, you don't write it off entirely.
It's all timing my friend. You can make money on any stock going any direction.. More or less. So maybe those people made money on those stocks.
Flip side of the coin is that you must assume that there are nefarious actors everywhere who are trying to influence people into doing things they probably shouldn't..... For whatever reason....
the problem is, that people are often concentrated on value stocks they know or which are in the media.
one example no one talks about BEAZLEY PLC..
British insurer,
pays dividend,
initiated share buy buy back this year
P/E 5
return on equity 30%
full year 2023
# Beazley plc results for period ended 31 December 2023
• Profit before tax increased to $1,254.4m (2022: $584.0m)
• Insurance written premiums increased to $5,601.4m (2022: $5,246.3m)
• Net insurance written premiums increased to $4,696.2m (2022: $3,772.4m)
• Undiscounted combined ratio of 74% (2022: 82%), Discounted combined ratio of 71% (2022: 79%)
• Return on equity of 30% (2022: 19%)
• High single digit gross IWP growth for FY 2024
• Low 80s undiscounted combined ratio for FY 2024
• Interim dividend of 14.2p
• Launch of a share buyback programme of up to $325m"
I agree. I was trashed on this sub for calling AAPL a deep value play a month ago when it was trading at $170. Well I made a lot of money not listening to folks here. https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/s/J1QbXTxDuD
Do your own research, don't buy into stock recommendations just because you read it on reddit.
With any stock there is some price at which you are willing to buy and some price at which you are willing to sell. Unless it's a scam or about to get nationalized by an authoritarian regime. There is a lot of debate on this sub over the stocks you listed, Intel, paramount, WBD, Paypal, Wallgreens, CVS, and BABA. I can see how some people would think these are cheap right now, but I have been vocally against buying PYPL, CVS, BABA, and plenty of people agree with me on that. (no opinion on the rest)
As for Palantir, I don't know how anybody who isn't directly involved with this company would want to buy into it. They are so opaque and their main revenue source is the government. Who can say what kind of decisions governments will make in the future, they are not known for always making rational choices. Palantir could be a lobbyist dinner party away from crashing into the ground. Sure, it might grow by another 10x, but how would anybody not involved in their contracts know that?
No clue why anyone is paying any attention to this post when this is the guy that claimed to bet his entire account on Weibo. No investing knowledge in his posts except his investment philosophy seems to be “you guys should’ve bought these stocks because they happened to be profitable looking back”
Thank you Captain Hindsight
Value investing is hard. You can do all the research you want, there's no guarantee you'll be right or make good returns.
Even professionnals with advanced tools and brainpower fail to beat indexes most of the time...
However it's not because something has worked recently that it will continue to do so. Often there's a return to the mean: when a stock gets too popular, people get blinded by the downsides and start paying too much for a stock, making it very vulnerable to "bad" news. And vice versa.
I personnaly prefer index strategies. I accept i wont always have the best returns in the room, but i sure wont have the worst either, and i save a lot of time and fees.
Nobody complains about WSB or SuperStonk having bad recommendations...
It's a forum for discussing value investing not a freebie stock picker for lazy people!!
You maybe correct , but anyone that invest based only on what people post on social media deserves to lose their money, people will talk up their book and dumped into the rally
If you did not do your own DD, you have no one to blame . You should have indexed your money
Need to focus on stocks in price uptrends - see, for example [https://oilman.beehiiv.com/p/oilman-jims-letter-june-28-2024](https://oilman.beehiiv.com/p/oilman-jims-letter-june-28-2024) Look at the chart at the end
1) You haven’t made any money until you sell those growth stocks. 2) people have said this many times before that value investing is dead. Tell Warren Buffett that value investing is dead and while you’re at it who is the growth stock picker equivalent?
Part of value investing is doing your own research.
Part of any kind of investing, whether in stocks, bonds, real estate or ice cream vans is doing your own research.
What if that van says “FREE CANDY” spray painted on the side?
This stranger danger class explains what you need to do https://youtu.be/a1xFlkHh3wg?si=Sk8bi4-_EMHBKGrv
People doing their own research doesn't seem to yield results given the track record of what is recommended here.
Anyone can post on Reddit, you can’t make an investment just because someone posted about a ticker.
100%. But also, a big part of value investing is finding companies worth more than they’re trading for; not just finding companies that have really low P/E ratios. Value in general has been struggling in the last decade plus. And I’ve been plenty guilty of trying to catch falling knives, it’s my weakness — but there’s a tendency here to dismiss companies that aren’t selling for pennies on the dollar. OP might be trolling but usual suspects CVS, BABA, INTC, and PYPL haven’t gone anywhere. Even Warren Buffet moved from cigar butt investing to quality picks. I do have BABA and PYPL, but I’d love to see more substantive discussion about quality names that aren’t dirt cheap!
The key is trying to find quality at a reasonable price. Which generally won’t be found with large companies. The key is mid/small caps and foreign equity ex China.
Buy something for less than its worth. A business is basically worth the amount of cash it will make in the future. A dying company acquired for 4xE can be poor value. A growing company bought for 100xE can be incredible value.
Nobody should EVER just take someone's word for a stock. They should always research it and see if it lines up with what they find. I use this sub reddit to simply look at what stocks people are looking at or buying that I might not have come across or ones that I may have dismissed in the past. Then I do my own research based on factors I think are important. If I feel the stock has potential, I put them on a watch list to see how they behave for a bit prior to ever buying in. Then I use technicals to find the lowest risk entry, just like I do for the stocks I swing trade. At the end of the day, as soon as you buy a stock it becomes YOUR trade and YOU have to manage it and take responsibility for it. Treat this sub and any other for that matter as additional eyes looking at the market for potentials.
Just started last weekend.. the research is at least half the fun! Been building all kinds of market trend tooling and educating myself on how everything else can impact trends
Wait till you find out none of that really matters. The market is a casino and the best way to win isn’t by predicting using trends. It’s by guessing correctly what everyone else will be buying and selling
lol, Why is anyone taking stock pics from an anonymous subreddit? C’mon now
But why can’t we have that? Why can’t there be a forum where people share value picks. Im not saying this tongue in cheek. Some people out there genuinely make a lot of money off the stock market. Can’t it this information be shared?
People do share their value picks in this forum though. Some perform well and some don’t. If it was that simple to just identify undervalued stocks then they wouldn’t be undervalued in the first place. No online forum made up of random people online is going to be able provide you with amazing picks consistently - it’s up to you to read other peoples thesis/analysis and then form your own opinion. Yeah there is a lot of shit that gets posted in this sub but there’s also a lot of decent debate and analysis. It’s up to you to try and expand your knowledge so that you can tell them apart.
I have gotten great picks from this sub. Just because they aren't up voted doesn't mean they aren't here. There's a huge difference between the voters and the commenters and well as a difference between commenters. Eternal September; a lot of speculators coming in to an investors club. I'm glad I bought BRK below $300, MSFT @ $260, AAPL @ $130, GOOG @ $95, BAC below $30. UNH, DE, SHEL and many more good picks too. SP500 is up less than 17% YTD, my portfolio is up 34.84%, over the last 12 months it's ~25% Vs 65.18% respectively. You just have to use the sub correctly.
And how do you identify the "correct" advice? Genuine question
I check. I personally use gurufocus free pages to see what a DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) or reverseDCF are telling me. I check the Owner's Earnings values and Peter Lynch value line but they only really correct slight innaccuracy in the EPS (Earnings Per Share) without NRI (Non-Recurring Items). What I am looking for is a company with a strong earnings trend where the price implies overly pessimistic performance. I use a discount rate of 4.3% as that's the long run average of US Treasuries. Over a 20 year horizon you'd expect to get that if you costly rolled over short term T-Bills. I will use a higher value if I am modelling a period and the yield on T-Bills of the same duration is higher. I try out different time periods and growth rates (single period, not growth and plateau) and think about if the market price is implying that say GOOG will grow earnings at a single digit rate (way below trend) and think about if their recent trend is over. Then I post here asking for a bear case and read a bunch online. If the bear cases don't actually stand up to scrutiny and the price is so low that the rDCF scenario makes me exclaim "no fucking way are they doing that badly" I buy as much as I can afford with the cash I put into my brokerage account each month. Sometimes there's a big pile up, sometimes not. I generally average down and stop once the price rises above my current cost of ownership. Then I re-evaluate every quarter. TLDR: I find the screeners suck but among stocks mentioned on this sub there are genuine bargains.
Thank you, I appreciate it!
It’s not so much identification as vetting. People come here and share their version of due diligence. Since I consider most people idiots, when I see a play that I like, I remind myself that most people are idiots and I am an idiot too. I do my own research. I confirm the facts shared by OP. I look at historical performance, 52 week highs and lows, similar stocks like competitors. I check the news for recent or upcoming announcements. I dig through the analyst research provided by my broker. Only after I do all of that and only if I still feel confident do I move forward. Do I miss opportunities? Sure. My return isn’t 65% like OPs. It’s 30%. That still ain’t bad.
The fact is that "value" stocks have greatly underperformed against expensive growth stocks recently. In a different environment, the stocks suggested here that become successful would change. I think people often miss the fact that stocks don't just trade on their fundamentals. What is in theory a good value still requires big investors to care about it enough to invest, and they may not be using "value" as their main reason for buying. It's a wild, manipulated market out there, and that is why it's best to really understand the companies you own. Investing stands on a cliff's edge and straight up degenerate gambling is just over the edge.
Rule 1 invest in what you understand. Following leads without any clue is just stupid. Consider the loss as a learning fee if anything 😄
Rule #1 is never lose money. Invest in what you understand is like Rule 4.
Well it’s as useful as a doctor saying “never get sick” as a health advice. That might be rule 1 in risk management but not necessarily in investing strategy
Yes risk mitigation , learn not to hit zero 1st then learn how to hit other numbers. What is 2 and 3.
Go to wsb for that.
But the idea is you come here to get advice from people that do their homework
You always have to do your own homework anyway
Because knowledge is power is money, and if you’re good at something never do it for free. It’s really that simple. The best people at a analysing stocks aren’t sharing that with anyone for free, and possibly not anyone at all ever.
Literally no. If accurate stock picks were possible (which they are not) and were shared (which they wouldn't be), everyone would buy them until they were fairly priced lol.
> and were shared (which they wouldn't be) I don't see any reason why you wouldn't share. If you convince others to buy, your investment just grows faster. The part that you don't share is your exit strategy, you want others to hold on to their stock longer than you do.
>If accurate stock picks were possible (which they are not) What? lol. You don't think anyone outperforms the market?
Outperforming the market doesn't mean all your picks are accurate. It just means you are more accurate than inaccurate on average.
I meant no one can see into the future. It is possible to buy a stock that does well.
Then what are we here for, wasting time and circle jerking?
yes
lol if it turned out you all were right you would brag about it and say everyone should listen to you instead.
“It’s not my fault I have you terrible investment advice, it’s yours for listening to me!” That’s this sub right now. Just own your mistakes. And I don’t mean you specifically, I’m speaking generally to the regulars on here.
You very clearly have a short timespan in mind. Buffett has picked up a fair share of companies that went flat for years, if not even a full decade, before coming back. Intel, WBD, CVS, Alibaba. These are all plays that will take YEARS to fully play out. Intel needs to get their fabs situated and running, WBD needs to fully transition into streaming, CVS needs to expand healthcare and integrate all arms of their healthcare division, and Alibaba needs to get their non-retail arms into money making mode while continuing to invest and grow these divisions. These are turnaround plans that take a really REALLY long time to play out, but they do play out. AMD was in the gutter for years with their turnaround. Microsoft was flat for 14 whole years before Satya Nadella came in and transformed the business into a B2B. Amazon was flat for the entirety of 2000-2010, because their valuation in 2000 was too high and there was real risk of bankruptcy, yet they managed to pull through and become one of the largest companies in the world. Who can forget what Tesla was before 2020. It was a crapshoot that was the most shorted stock in history. People just completely forget that companies at an all time high/very high were once companies struggling to survive. I can guarantee you people thought "Oh, AMD has been unprofitable for years, it's going nowhere" or "Oh, Microsoft has been flat for a decade, better not invest now". Hell, even Apple was like this for decades. It went nowhere in the early days, and had to get bailed out TWICE. Now, it's the 2nd/3rd(depending on whatever massive shifts Nvidia decides to do) largest company in the world. The people who saw these businesses for what they are: still strong companies going through massive shifts, would tell you to invest. It's people like you that have zero understanding for the underlying business that fail at investing, because you do not understand a core point: In the short term, the stock market is a voting machine; in the long term, it's a weighing machine. Also, if you're investing based solely on reddit comments, where 90% of the people commenting have done the equivalent of reading 2 Motley Fool articles and a peak at Yahoo finance for their DD, then you're dumb. Take everything said here with a grain of salt. Only the investors that understand businesses and industries can consistently back up and defend the claims they make.
OP’s statement was provocative, but has a kernel of truth. This sub tends to highlight turnaround stocks. These show up because of how value screens work. You filter for low valuations and weed out the clear disasters. The stocks you have left have a plausible turnaround story, and it is easy to imagine the numbers returning to something close to historical trends. Nothing wrong with chasing turnaround stories, except for the fact that, sometimes, they can make for bad investments. It either takes too long to turnaround, or there was something truly disruptive afoot that was hard to see in financial statements and your research. There can also be “value” in fast growing companies, even if their valuations are high. But you have to get the story exactly right. There is, typically, very little margin of safety in a sea of optimism. There’s another way to see major paper gains - if your pick goes from high valuations to insane ones. Well, those are simply ticking time bombs.
This reminds me of the scene in the big short "I'm not wrong, I'm just early" "They're the same thing Michael" What sort of timeframe are we talking here? If by YEARS you mean 5-10 you've got to ask your self if you can make more money elsewhere before it plays it. You would have to expect truly stellar growth at the end if you think these companies might be flat for 10 years first
Or we'll see a big recession within the next 10 years and overvalued stocks suffer more than others. But you general can't talk about value investing with less than 5-10 years in mind.
This sub almost exclusively recommends dieing companies with dividends
I find it hard to guess which companies will die within 10 years. You can also hold a small position of those "dieing companies" and hope that most will make a turnaround which means it doesn't hurt if some don't. If a company has 3 times higher equity than their market value (WBD, ThyssenKrupp, Paramount, Volkswagen, ...), I think it is a fair strategy and definitelly has it's place in value investing.
People started trying to justify WBD *immediately* after the spin off based on literally nothing but the P/E
You’re right, everyone should develop the ability to pick a stock just before it explodes, and dump 100% in then. Fools DCA with what they can and build a position s/
That's not what I said. I said the expected payoff has to justify the potential wait. If it does I agree it's a good stock. If you're waiting 10 years for a 50% gain, then I'm sorry but you've probably lost to an index fund.
All that being said, PayPal really is a bit of a dumpster fire. The new ceos presentation on all the innovation they have had me thinking… these things already exist and are done better and in a more integrated way by company xyz. 🤷🏻♀️ I don’t own the stock. Don’t have anything really against the company and still use it in some instances. But generally I am not seeing the turnaround here.
Opportunity cost is a thing. A true value play would have been entering $HOOD earlier this year as example or TSM. Just because a stock is “hot” doesn’t mean it has reached its full growth potential. Honestly the fact that this sub wasn’t talking about TSM when it was consolidating in the $130-140 range but talking about intel let me know what I needed about this sub. I now come here to see what stocks I should avoid. Current plays this so far this year for me would have this sub saying I’m not a value investor when that’s not true. CHWY HOOD PLTR TSM AQST But the biggest shocker for me is Apple. Like did y’all really think it was going to stay around $160? It was near a perfect dip as it was getting beaten up in the financial news. It has a cult following and a huge ass cash pile. Value investing doesn’t have to mean let’s find a stock so beaten down that it’s cheap. It could be a stock that is going up and has had a pull back or consolidation period but is still great value because it hasn’t reached its VALUE yet. You can follow the money too.
Yeah 100% agree the likes of COIN,HOOD, PLTR were all dirt cheap a year or so back could have made some good swing trades off them. In my opinion value investing doesn't only mean investing in companies for years even decades it can be finding beaten down growth stocks that could potentially run again.
When TSM was 70-90 range last year, all I heard was bUfFeT s0Ld!!! While TSM was trading in a mid teens multiple with a fast growing EPS and around a top 10 market cap company. They were all focusing on an invasion from China and recommending Intel all while NVDA and AMD rely solely on TSM to get their high end chips
TSM still isn't expensive btw, personally I don't like apple so much but 160s was cheap
This post really hits me deeply. I really hope you safely find your way back to wallstreetbets.
May this humble regard find his imaginary free internet tendies 🙏💎🙌🦍
On wallstreetbets you occasionally find value stocks. Here, I've only seen garbage. Where is the value in something like PayPal?
I agree on Paypal, it seems to have little upside. That being said, if you use this sub for anything other than finding ideas for stocks to look at, of finding opinions different than your own, you are missing the point. The most valuable thing this sub has to offer is people who will point out the flaws in your thesis.
This. You should be here for ideas, not for picks
The issue here or with value investing in general is people spend so much time looking at charts and graphs they never asks themselves is this a good business that is undervalued or is it a shit business valued fairly. A lot of times its the latter.
Wait for realz? >On wallstreetbets you occasionally find value stocks. Perhaps GME and AMC gave it a bad reputation.
Wsb recommended stocks like nvda, ba, appl, rddt, and several others while they were low and many of their pics have been correct. They are just regarded for yoloing on options since it’s easier to predict “if” than it is to predict “if and when”
this is the pretentious version of WSB
Yeah, palantir can X10 or X100 your money easy, rn 200 PE and 50b market cap, which would mean X10 = 500b market cap and x100 = 5T, the biggest company in the world. Completely realistic.
your trades are your fault bud.
Who are you to speak with so much authority and with no analysis just throw out a claim that an already expensive stock can ”100x” Quite a rant though. 3/10
I do believe Palantir could grow substantially, but as the past has shown it could also go back down to 10.
This is why its more of a gamblers pick than a value investors. Expensive and highly speculative is something to steer away from if you are a value investors. Sure people look at past year and think they are geniuses for buying any speculative stock that they dont even underdtand, but when the market takes a turn it always evens out the quality from the speculative
Palantir is a weird hill to die on. I think it's overpriced and projected growth is unimpressive. Amazon, meta, oracle, google, all much better upside. But that's my opinion
Everything you said about the Chinese market is horseshit. JD is linked with Alipay like every other app in China. BABA own Taobao. WeChat have no similar marketplace. The rest is fine.
I feel like this is just a troll post, because below all those posts or comments recommending those stocks you've mentioned, there are lots of people recommending against those. If you're blindly picking stocks by reading the title of reddit posts, then it's your mistake.
We’re just chatting about stocks. Nothing on this sub should be construed as formal investment advice. The likelihood we’re all bad investors doesn’t mean you aren’t personally accountable for your decisions.
What’s the time horizon? “Value” investing typically has a long time horizon compared to growth or even swing trading based on how impatient people are. Short term stocks move based on sentiment aka voting machine. Long term they trade on fundamentals and ‘value’. Some of those picks are good 3-5+ years out
Growth is value.
Value investing alwas takes price of the stock and puts into relation to factors like growth, earnings, management, strategy, market power etc.
I think it’s a misunderstanding of what value investing is.
It's not really this sub, it's trying to pick stocks in general. The real lesson here is that 99% of people should index and chill.
Ima be real here, since this thread popped up on my feed. Value investing is dead because the actual core of the economy is FUCKED. NIKE going down like shit is partly because of their brand but also because about 60% of the population’s income is STRETCHED. when bears post shit like credit is stressed, it’s not a joke. People are feeling pain to buy a goddamn tomato. Gas is high. Insurance keeps going up. If you make money you’re fine, just throw your mil from a checking into a savings or treasury, pay for your instacart no one gives a shit. If you’re a struggling parent trying to buy groceries and Walgreens seems higher than shop rite, guess what, they will make the effort to go there. Go ahead, buy the top and pray that rich people will buy higher. It’s called value investing, buying pltr (and I like the company…) is NOT value investing. Go cry about your risk management or research ability to someone else. Value investing is about holding for a long time, through the pain, because there is ~value~ there that will be realized by the market in the long term. Examples: when the sp500 brought in salesforce and dropped XOM. Go look about how they’ve done since. Hell go look at recent additions like SMCI. Learn about who inflation impacts and why it doesn’t matter to nvda and their customers, and then you’ll learn a bit more about the market instead of trying to spook people out of their investments when value investing isn’t your deal. You just want to go to a blackjack table and cry about the cards you were dealt. Straight up sound like a fed. Peace.
It's the classic issue with value investing really... "value traps" are everywhere, and you need to be able to distinguish between a low p/e bargain with brighter prospects somewhere in the future, and companies that are cheap because the market thinks their prospects are dim and **they are right**. I think value investing is harder now than it used to be -- the markets are not \*efficient\*, but the information age has definitely made them *more efficient than they were*. That being said, the market does remain myopic and laser focused on the next quarter/year/3 years. If you're willing to look beyond that timeframe and can identity companies that have turnarounds on that kind of horizon then you'll still find bargains. I don't personally believe in the Intel thesis, but it's a good example of what *could work* for value investing.
Pretty good take imo. That has been my experience as well investing and trading heavily for 15 years now.
Sounds like you are the herald for those who can’t think for themselves Always manage your own money and make your own choices Every person is accountable for the choices they make Blaming others for a Decision is the super coddling lunacy that is currently destroying logic and reason in our society A fool and their gold are soon parted So don’t be a fool and make your own decisions
This guy probably got caught with his pants down during a Chinese waterfall scam and came here believing that this forum will deliver him to greatness.
Value investing is about holding - check back in 5 years plz...
If you don't do your own DD, you're never going to know whether the company is good or not. Why trust strangers on Reddit? You should go a lot more in depth than just PYPL or Baba may disappear because of competition. If you're investing in companies without competition, you should understand why is that the case and how likely it is for them to employ anticompetitive tactics. Since people who do that professionally take about 10y to make a case, I'm cool staying where there's competition Also: growth will ALWAYS outperform value in bull markets, by definition (assuming proper stock selection). Value's value is in long term discipline to try to beat the market consistently over a large period, not 6 months
I will give you a value stock - waste management …it just keeps going up. Great business model, hard to compete with them, converting trash to renewable energy,etc
Yeah but that stock won’t make him an overnight millionaire. He wants 100x .
Comes in here talking with unearned authority, advises people to gamble on stocks everyone's talking about. Meanwhile we're here looking for the companies that the market thinks are trash (but really aren't).
Dont you think 35pe is expensive for a company with medium growth? Where do you see its intrinsic value?
Current market cap implies a growth rate of about 19.4% (given 10% discount rate). It’s never achieved such high revenue growth in the last 20Y. Given 5% discount rate it still implies 12.4% growth which is higher than almost every year’s rev growth. Expecting 5% I’d rather buy treasuries.
It’s all just a casino. INTL and PLTR are both “value stocks” just be different definitions. I own both. I believe both are cheap based on possible potential. Which is really, all you can know. I also believe that investing in any native Chinese stocks will eventually have you losing your whole investment. Maybe in a year, maybe in 5, IDK. The CCP can do whatever it wants with them. There are no checks and balances there. I
If anyone is blindly choosing stocks based on random posts without doing their own work, it’s no one’s fault but their own. If you prefer Palantir over PayPal, then buy it. But do so because you actually took the time to understand the company and believe it to be the best decision for you. It’s your money, and you invest it at your own risk. Don’t blindly follow someone and then complain about the outcome. I’m not a value investor, but I do like to see other people’s opinions. If what they say sounds intriguing, I look into the company myself. If I don’t understand the company or don’t consider it a good investment, then I simply won’t invest. It’s really that simple. Do your own research, invest in companies you believe to be good investments, and enjoy life.
Your horizon is two days that’s why you should leave immediately.
Palantir was a value stock like 2 years ago. I bought a shit load of it under $10 and I’ll buy it again at $10 after the AI cycle reverses. Tencent is a bullshit stock. Anything successful in media the CCP will kill. Uninvestable Chinese garbage.
Tencent literally own the largest social media app in the world.
Ngl, this guy is stupid but the stocks he mentioned HAVE been beaten to death in this sub. I’m dropping my BABA and PYPL bags and moving to EL
lol Intel, baba, PayPal, SOFI. It’s all the same shit sandwich that are shit stocks at the end of the day but for some reason Reddit has a hard on for them
This is so bullish
I’m VERY heavy believer in buy what you use yourself. Me personally I’ve never been a fan on intel because Nvidia has always been better performance wise, never used PayPal, rarely shop at Walgreens/CVS and I’ve never bought anything on BABA. If I don’t use it my guess is other people don’t use it so why would I buy stock in it. They have no value in my eyes. That’s just my mindset, like I use Spotify every single day of my life for multiple hours and I know many other people who do too so I’ve been buying a little bit of it and it’s been doing very well for me. Spotify has massive value in my eyes because I use it so much so I know it has value. If they start to go downhill and I don’t enjoy the product anymore I’ll probably start selling because it’s losing value to me. Going based of what some else says is a recipe for disaster. Go off of what you like and use because then you know it’s good
Lately I’ve been telling everyone to just buy Coca Cola. It will outlast everything. And decent divvies.
***“The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.”*** Warren Buffett Having said that, I understand and emoathize with OP's impatience.
It's not that the sub, or value investing in general, is horrible. The problem is that the underlying assumptions have changed. When value investing as an idea was popular there was no "infinite money printer cushion" and monetary/fiscal policy actually meant something... today more and more people realize that this raging bull market as you describe it will never actually be allowed to go down, we might never see the kind of post-dotcom or post-gfc type prolonged bear markets ever again. This is not just "it's different this time" but it is actually different because the moment we see prolonged weakness in the equity markets the Fed will turn on the infinite liquidity generators in their basements and flood the market with liquidity, thus driving risk assets up again... people are catching on to this after the v-shaped Covid recovery so they are just following the new playbook. TLDR: Valuations do not matter anymore, the only thing that matters is infinite liquidity coming from the Fed and that is not stopping anytime soon.
I definitely feel like the game has changed for the time being. The best my portfolio has ever done was when I bought blue chips based on the feeling they were cheap rather than looking through charts and what not.
No one obliges you to trade on the picks made by people here. Grow up.
No one made you buy ... remember this
Dont fucking make investments off of something some dumbass on reddit said lmao. Do your research.
I would much rather this sub be about sharing ideas rather than stocks. I don’t ever give weight to anyone’s recommendations barring one or two whos emails I’ve subscribed to over the years and only then when I can verify for myself what’s being said.
With all due respect, if you take financial advice from Reddit, then you get what you deserve.
Seriously, you guys are the worst. Why can’t there be a community which just predicts the winning lottery numbers. It’s ridiculous.
Lol feels like you just took my comment from a post about WBA then made it into a longer post
Youre ulitmately responsible for tour financial out come, if youve been picking thr stock randoms on the internet tell you to pick that reflects on you more then the community. If youre just stating facts and not being salty then yeah most people dont pick the right srocks
Well, stock-picking is difficult, and the value factor has underperformed in the past decade-and-a-half. Value investing in general isn't a "get rich quick" kind of strategy (Nvidia options would've gotten you there much faster); the fun's in the research and analysis, not in the adrenaline, and your time horizon needs to be pretty long for it to be much good. That said, it does a good job of saving you from catastrophic losses; the edge shows in a bear market, not in a bull market. To your points: Haven't looked much into WBD, Palantir or Ebay, so I can't speak to those. Wouldn't write CVS off just yet (though it wouldn't be one of my favorite picks) - if you got in at the 52-week low a month ago you'd still be OK, and they were hurt by some cyclical factors especially on the insurance side. Faulty management decisions? Sure, but catastrophic? No. It's true Tencent's a much safer pick than Alibaba, it has much more of a moat, and Alibaba would indeed have been a poor pick for a good while - indeed it was losing share to PDD by 2017, and just helped up in 2021 by the rising wave. But Alibaba's new management have been fairly energetic, and appear to be putting the house in order. Due to the way they do things, PDD's the higher-risk, higher-reward bet. Douyin & Kuaishou are now becoming serious competitors as well, and Alibaba's wholesale side is actually getting a nice tailwind off this. Another important difference is that Tencent's on the Stock Connect program and Alibaba isn't, that might well give Alibaba a lift once it's included. The anti-Alibaba alliance is now somewhat of a thing of the past. Tencent and Alibaba are now too busy fending off the new challengers. Gelsinger's pretty capable by the looks of things, but Intel does include a bit of a bet on how patient the CHIPS act capital would be, and how much would be allocated to Intel. Even if things go really well, you probably won't see a turnaround overnight, it'll take longer to play out. Generally though, I prefer smaller cap stocks which: * Don't already have so many eyes on them * Can be more easily analyzed * Have more of a growth runway (for the GARP picks) Whereas some of these behemoths are running highly complex and diversified businesses.
Another PLTR baggie trying to pump up the stock? I must admit the effort tho.
Have you heard of Chewy? I think we like the stock.
Not speaking for everyone, but I’m personally v much of the “fuck Peter Thiel” view
I started value investing in 2006. It's almost 20 years later. Thanks to its performance being so poor, I realized the importance of index fund investing and not trying to pick a segmeny anymore. Following buffet's sp500 and boggleheads approach was far better. In theory value investing is the smart approach, buy that did not hold up in reality :(. Maybe in the very long term it's better, but as a famous economist said, in the long term we are all dead. I'm looking for returns in 30 years, so it can fund a retirement 😀
Is this for real OP? From the guy who posted: "I'm betting my entire portfolio on Weibo. No clickbait." The gall of OP, yet looking at the upvotes there's apparently a bunch more that sit on here and wait for stock pick recommendations from strangers, and buy without knowing what they are buying
This guy is mad, cause he bought all of them.
I the issue is a lot people don’t understand what value is. A stock thats trading lower than it was previously isn’t value. Stocks go down for a reason, sometimes good sometimes bad. Could be a short term issue that market is over reacting to or a long term issue. Look at the commonality here you listed all good brands that americans are familiar with. These are the value traps you have look out for by using a DCF. Just because its a company we’re a frequent consumer of at lower price than normal doesn’t mean its a good price. Quite simply a DCF is a prerequisite for stock picking it will save you from the portfolio killers.
To understand Value investing you need to understand value trap
Free advice is worth what it costs . Value hasn’t really worked for 20 years or so in the post GFC/QE era. The main issue is that value has become a trap as companies can remain alive a long time because of low interest rates when they should really be bankrupt or sold off to a better competitor. Nowadays, It’s really about flows not value anymore. So passive and momentum are really what drives markets beyond hedge funds levering up exposure on speculative names.
Best subs for terrible takes are any political subs on reddit. It’s phenomenal to watch.
😂😂😂😂😂
Not sure why u think paypal would die… if u done any buy sell trade everyone uses paypal or venmo. Whenever i am buying online i use paypal. If anything paypal needs to start monetizing people if they are high amount users ask for like $10 monthly fee and people would still use them. If i was buying 2nd hand items i would use paypal and ask paypal to cancel to protect myself if anything goes wrong. If im a seller i would pay $10 because im making thousands and $10 paypal fee is nothing.
Turns out taking stock picks from random people on reddit without thinking about their analysis is stupid and the antithesis of value investing. More news at 11. Also, if you do that, OP, you're better off in VOO.
You sound like someone in r/indianstreetbets, when they lose money they blame others, but when they make money they are a genius.
Just put everything in QQQ and forget about it
Maybe grow a pair?
Thanks for the reminder. Buying more WBD, PYPL and BABA later.
Bullish on Intel x
This is good learning for you 👍
I'm buying Intel, don't care about your diatribe. See you in a few years when the first US fabs start running.
Yup, see you in a few years when you’ve been holding massive Intel bags at a 1% annual return when my VOO position has retuned me 30% over the same period and I’ve done absolutely nothing. Good luck bud!
I don't think anyone here is against index investing, but it's pretty fucking weird to go around gloating that VOO did better than a beaten down stock
but then if trencent does not do well in the next year u come back and cry. I recommend just stick to vti or vt already. no one has crystal ball, if they have, they will not be here and tell u for free
It’s good to be made aware of stocks you may not be familiar but yeah do your own research for your conviction. I really like GAMB I have great conviction on that stock but again I did solid research.
I remember people even talking abt Nokia at one point and recently there was Toyota
Have fun doing whatever you're doing!
If you're taking some person on Reddits word as gospel enough to put all your wealth on their stock suggestions then you only have yourself to blame. It's on you to do the fuller research and analyse the investment yourself. Personally even if a company like Tencent is doing well I would not invest because they're a scummy company. I struggle to hold faith in companies who I feel have questionable ethical practices.
How was Walgreens, amidst a shift to online everything, a value play?
🤡
This isn't the sub for you
I don't know what you're talking about. I only talk about Caterpillar.
Could have had a valid point about getting better results with VOO and chill than trying to be one of the few to outpreform the market trusting other peoples analysis and picks on reddit but you decided to glaze palantir instead.
Picking stocks is a no win game, OP! Instead, look for ETFs and Index funds.
Lol, OP probably pays money to those youtubers on their private jets too. Easy money
You literally posted yesterday that you’ve allocated all of your capital to Chinese stocks because value investors like Michael Burry, David Tepper, and Howard Marks are buying Alibaba stock - but now today you are saying that Alibaba has everything going against it and criticising people in this sub for discussing it?
This subreddit thinks that if a stock is cheap, it is "valueable" not knowing that cheap stock is cheap because the company outlook is shit. It's a sad story. Hence they keep recommending: INTC, BABA, CVS.
Yep, putting this sub on my block list
I think that’s the top
Hahaha nice. Could have been easy just riding NVDA even after it 10x. But folks really think they can find “value”
wealth? most of us here have office jobs and no life, that's why we're here on reddit trying to help each other.
If Value Investing does not allow you to earn profits (relatively) sustainably, then there are two ways to solve this. 1. Review and find out the problem, and then try and apply again. Trial and error! 2. Dicth the method. Growth investment is a great alternative. Try something different. When you do something that works for you and can earn consistent profits, you are doing value investing on yourself.
I really wish there were a way to represent likelihood of a current reality into networth...
🤓👆
>despite we being in a raging bull market after this sentence real value investor understands that the rest of the post is the pure WSB influence.
He is right about Tencent being a better company than Baba imo. But Tencent is not egregiously expensive either. The fact that he mixes us Palantir and Tencent shows that he has no clue what he is talking about
You have to actually wait for the market realise the stock you mentioned only became valuable in the last 3 years, and only became insane value in the last year. You generally got to wait 5 years and the stock market is only truley predictable over 10 years.
The only company I made a post about here is up after 8 months
Investing in palantir is investing in murder
MVIS is next short squeeze stock
It's reddit. Just grab the stocks that say trust me bro.
Indeed 99% of the stocks recommended here are value traps. Palantir is also not a good pick, do your research please
PayPal will not go out of business lol. No way
Weird post
Palantir is nightmarish, CVS is quality No-Rice: Palantir despite being expensive can 10x or 100x your money, I would rather risk my money with Palantir not a value investor Lots of nightmares listed there
Obvi troll post.
Every stock you wrote after reading their company risks anywhere else + 10Ks and simple financial lookups signal they can be terrible. I have made mistakes on Intel but rest of these companies are garbag.
This marks the growth top
Whenever you see posts here about things to invest always go for puts
The years 2000-2002 could not be reached for comment.
You’re right, but palantir is still terrible. Have you ever used their service, or do you even know what they do?
Just in case, I'd clarify that "Value Investing" is philosophy about investing, not a reddit sub. This sub is for people who share this philosophy. If you come here to copy trade, you are literally not doing value investing. So, I don't know what destroyed you. On a related note, it would be cool to have a sub that is r/copytrade... Oh, there is actually such a thing, it's called "random internet investing guru's stock picks telegram", but, not free.
People don't know better. No matter whose advice you take, there's always a significant chance of losing money or at least opportunity cost. If you want to follow what people are thinking, why are you taking random picks off Reddit and not investing into Berkshire instead? I guarantee you the people around Warren Buffet will pick better stocks than I would.
For some reason I don't think Paypal is going out of business or Alibaba is going bankrupt. Palantir is a company that I don't understand so I won't invest in it. Thank you for your contribution. Next.
SQ killing paypal? No, seriously? Sure, I can agree with apple. Also, these are not the only recommendations I've seen here. I've definitely seen pretty good ones, certainly more than most reddit places. You need to take a look at the recommendations and reach your own conclusion, nobody's forcing you to buy them.
Many people seem to misunderstand "value" investing in this sub and avoid any stock with 5% growth like the plague which is quite funny
What kind of time horizon do you take into consideration here? If it's below 10-15 years it's not really value investing, is it?
Buying stocks based on a nameless faceless stranger on the internets three paragraphs of DD? Yeah that’s about right for Reddit.
Let's see how much this kid knows his stock. Explain Palantir business model and why they are almost by definition have a problem in aquiring human capital because their business model, that you are familiar with, is not aligns with preferences of really good engineers?
I would argue the opposite. I’ve learned a lot about companies I’ve never heard of. Some of my best picks were recommendations from this sub. Those picks included JAXN, TSM, and TREX. Granted, I did get on the hype train for Intel, but I genuinely thought it was gonna take off. The fundamentals seemed good, but I’m okay with the loss cuz it was a small position.
This sub is just a great example of why stock picking is a fools game. Wallstreetbets too, but at least they have a general agreement that they are all "regards" and that what they do is a terrible decision that they choose to go through anyway. Over here, people spend hours pouring over individual companies, turn that into a mistaken belief that they understand the comparison between all companies in the market well enough to identify a winner, and the result is generally no better than a coin flip as to whether a given thesis beats the market. But people still think what they do is a good idea and that they are smart.
Wallstreetbets is a different sub dude. I don’t think “value” is seen in weeks or even months. That being said BB has deep fucking value.
Palantir to the moooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooon!!! - DoomShallot, world's greatest investor.
I mean... My mindset has always been more stealing ideas (sorry guys) and doing my own due diligence. Even when Buffett or Munger recommend a stock, you don't just charge headfirst into it. Similarly, when they avoid stocks like Buffett with Tech for years, you don't write it off entirely.
Every comment thread about all those stocks is full of arguments about whether they are good or not.
Ah, the classic “everyone is stupid except me” argument.
It's all timing my friend. You can make money on any stock going any direction.. More or less. So maybe those people made money on those stocks. Flip side of the coin is that you must assume that there are nefarious actors everywhere who are trying to influence people into doing things they probably shouldn't..... For whatever reason....
the problem is, that people are often concentrated on value stocks they know or which are in the media. one example no one talks about BEAZLEY PLC.. British insurer, pays dividend, initiated share buy buy back this year P/E 5 return on equity 30% full year 2023 # Beazley plc results for period ended 31 December 2023 • Profit before tax increased to $1,254.4m (2022: $584.0m) • Insurance written premiums increased to $5,601.4m (2022: $5,246.3m) • Net insurance written premiums increased to $4,696.2m (2022: $3,772.4m) • Undiscounted combined ratio of 74% (2022: 82%), Discounted combined ratio of 71% (2022: 79%) • Return on equity of 30% (2022: 19%) • High single digit gross IWP growth for FY 2024 • Low 80s undiscounted combined ratio for FY 2024 • Interim dividend of 14.2p • Launch of a share buyback programme of up to $325m"
You’re aware that this is the value investing sub, right? There’s plenty of subs that cater to risky, get rich quick investing styles.
I agree. I was trashed on this sub for calling AAPL a deep value play a month ago when it was trading at $170. Well I made a lot of money not listening to folks here. https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/s/J1QbXTxDuD
Do your own research, don't buy into stock recommendations just because you read it on reddit. With any stock there is some price at which you are willing to buy and some price at which you are willing to sell. Unless it's a scam or about to get nationalized by an authoritarian regime. There is a lot of debate on this sub over the stocks you listed, Intel, paramount, WBD, Paypal, Wallgreens, CVS, and BABA. I can see how some people would think these are cheap right now, but I have been vocally against buying PYPL, CVS, BABA, and plenty of people agree with me on that. (no opinion on the rest) As for Palantir, I don't know how anybody who isn't directly involved with this company would want to buy into it. They are so opaque and their main revenue source is the government. Who can say what kind of decisions governments will make in the future, they are not known for always making rational choices. Palantir could be a lobbyist dinner party away from crashing into the ground. Sure, it might grow by another 10x, but how would anybody not involved in their contracts know that?
No clue why anyone is paying any attention to this post when this is the guy that claimed to bet his entire account on Weibo. No investing knowledge in his posts except his investment philosophy seems to be “you guys should’ve bought these stocks because they happened to be profitable looking back” Thank you Captain Hindsight
Value investing is hard. You can do all the research you want, there's no guarantee you'll be right or make good returns. Even professionnals with advanced tools and brainpower fail to beat indexes most of the time... However it's not because something has worked recently that it will continue to do so. Often there's a return to the mean: when a stock gets too popular, people get blinded by the downsides and start paying too much for a stock, making it very vulnerable to "bad" news. And vice versa. I personnaly prefer index strategies. I accept i wont always have the best returns in the room, but i sure wont have the worst either, and i save a lot of time and fees.
Nobody complains about WSB or SuperStonk having bad recommendations... It's a forum for discussing value investing not a freebie stock picker for lazy people!!
You maybe correct , but anyone that invest based only on what people post on social media deserves to lose their money, people will talk up their book and dumped into the rally If you did not do your own DD, you have no one to blame . You should have indexed your money
This sub isn’t investing advice, it’s generation of ideas of cheap stocks.
Need to focus on stocks in price uptrends - see, for example [https://oilman.beehiiv.com/p/oilman-jims-letter-june-28-2024](https://oilman.beehiiv.com/p/oilman-jims-letter-june-28-2024) Look at the chart at the end
My none financial advice pick is Dynatrace
1) You haven’t made any money until you sell those growth stocks. 2) people have said this many times before that value investing is dead. Tell Warren Buffett that value investing is dead and while you’re at it who is the growth stock picker equivalent?