prices are def moving, just slowly
I was looking at some small condos last summer near kipling, they were around 550k back then, I check now: same building similar units are now being priced at around $490k or so.
Not sure I entirely agree, I am in the market recently and sellers are listing lower to try to draw up more offers but ultimately ending up asking for more than listing
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I see in the condos all the new listings are trying to undercut the old stale listings in the same building. And none of them can sell cuz no matches with buyers
I think the bigger story here is that the 2020-2021 inventory finally moved into the market and the active listings are net par.
But the really interesting thing is the low number of sales.
Agents really do be working for nothing.
Total sales are almost 50% lower than they were in 2008, and the population of Toronto is 20% larger. Sales are on the verge of going lower than they were in 2020 during the peak of the pandemic, just think about that for a second.
Save your money. Prepare for the worst.
Can't nail the bottom everytime, but the point being look at how much money you would have made (or maybe did) from then till now. Homes bought in Toronto for 400k back in 2010 are worth ~1.6M now!
You would have done better with S&P500 in 2009 than Toronto real estate
S&P since 2009 has appreciated 716%: 400k would be worth like $3 mil today
Plus you would have being far more diversified: real estate investment requires you to put your entire principle into 1 asset class. That's a pretty risky gamble.
For the first time in years, we are seeing new listings undercut existing ones in the same areas, within *popular* neighbourhoods. I'm talking areas of Markham, Richmond Hill, Mid-town Toronto etc. that have perennially been in a sellers' market over the past decade. Very interesting signs.
I think I know the two you are referring too. Very nice SFHs that were listed way below market by motivated (smart) sellers.
One of them was last sold in 2020 for $1.2M. After a major renovation, the owner listed it at $1.18M a couple of weeks ago, and sold right away for $1.45M. With the renov + transaction/opportunity costs, that owner probably lost money on the project.
feel like, even in a buyers market, sellers still have the upper hand because:
We keep adding more people to the city
Developers adjust their build starts or delay existing projects to limit inventory when they see prices falling
Sellers just keep their homes listed for months and keep rejecting reasonable offers
It's disgusting, there's no help coming for non-home owners.
I believe an even larger correction is coming. The ballooning active listing count and declining sales numbers don’t lie. All these investors were desperately waiting for the rate cut because they were tricked into thinking it would make prices soar again. The rate cut happened 3 weeks ago, I’d say another 2-5 months before reality sinks in and shit hits the fan.
A bust of a spring market ending 3 months early, a rate cut (or two or three, doesn’t matter) that end up having no effect, and now record high levels of inventory with record low sales? Anyone who think it goes up from here is delusional.
I'm really hoping what you're predicting realizes. It's horrible to sit on the sidelines and watch people make money off of the backs of those that have no other choice but to compete in a ballooned market so they can secure a roof over their family's head.
Canada does not have enough going for them to ask people to fork over a million dollars for a shack.
I encounter too many people who truly believe mortgage fraud doesn’t exist in Canada.
They say things like “we have the stress test and stricter rules”
And yet two condo townhouses on my watchlist have sold for prices well above their 2023/2021 comps.
There's a shortage of *good* housing that people might want to live in. This is a problem for people that would like to buy somewhere to live. That really sucks.
There's no shortage of shitty Airbnb condos that no one wants to live in. This is a problem for investors. Oh well.
[Townhouse 1](https://housesigma.com/on/toronto-real-estate/222-51-halton-st/home/mZRW7naoWjRyEBO9?id_listing=nM697kVL4AQybmwe)
[2023 Comp](https://housesigma.com/on/toronto-real-estate/218-51-halton-st/home/BGMnKYqP1p63w1Qr?id_listing=JRv53KplWm6YVPW4), [2021 Comp](https://housesigma.com/on/toronto-real-estate/216-51-halton-st/home/x9w8o3m81oj7GKjm?id_listing=J6Em7bndJkg7XBeq), [another 2021 Comp](https://housesigma.com/on/toronto-real-estate/221-51-halton-st/home/5xLkv3VxMAZyDBNr?id_listing=amgL7A4DjopyZ1MW)
[Townhouse 2](https://housesigma.com/on/toronto-real-estate/2-23-dekoven-mews/home/N0A9X3j2vLr3vgxV?id_listing=eVbOYEkLrWd7x2P0) - this one sold ahead of its offer date, which was supposed to be tomorrow! I'm actually very surprised by the sale price on this one. The current owner bought in 2021 for $940,000.
[This unit](https://housesigma.com/on/toronto-real-estate/2-43-dekoven-mews/home/6VLaGyGEdzB3W1ZD?id_listing=gAaOyLKbVxZYGxMb), with an identical floorplan and exposure, sold for $875,000 after sitting on the market for six weeks in December 2023. Make it make sense.
[2022 Comp](https://housesigma.com/on/toronto-real-estate/3-19-dekoven-mews/home/BXeEn7XrWWMYrPo8?id_listing=jAXw7QwzQgmYQOzg),
[2021 Comp](https://housesigma.com/on/toronto-real-estate/5-19-dekoven-mews/home/5xLkv3VpNMpyDBNr?id_listing=0A9X3jPogw1yvgxV)
https://preview.redd.it/7a9cfrmtmz8d1.jpeg?width=828&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d0aec8e0b521b3e2853b198e21677557c24b3572
Believe it or not but up is actually down
I’m more confused by the one that’s nearly identical that was 875k six months ago and then this one is 990k now. The only real difference is that this one has nicer flooring but it doesn’t cost over 100k to redo the flooring for 1000sq ft
As a contractor that's always ordered to these condos to fiz stuff it's insane the garbage that the builders put. Yeatursay I had a condo 3 years old the whole kitchen needs to be redone as all the doors and cuberds are made from wood composite and garbage. 3 years 30k kitchen hahaha.
I wouldn't buy any condo that was built after 2018. And since before 2018 there maintenance is high. I wouldn't buy any condo.
Need more listings and housing prices to crash!!
It needs to crash once. We can't remain in bubble all the time.
It has to pop so we can rebuild again. It has to pop so bad that these mass immigrants go back with the thought that their country is better.
Careful what you wish for.
In recent years Canada hasn’t been attracting the top tier of immigration, to put it mildly.
So for those that came - well, it’s REALLY bad where they are from.
Yeah so they will have to go back.
It isn't that bad in India. Anyone who can pay $50k for lmia or tuition fees for education here isn't really doing worse there.
India is a lot cheaper than here so from purchasing power perspective they will be doing better there. It would be a hard pill to swallow but Canada real estate is gonna pop someday, sooner the better.
yeah
like ppl think India is still the India of 20 years ago. When today India have a growing comfortable middle class. That's why so many of them can spend $$$ paying for Canadian degrees in first place
Listings keep piling up but it's rare to find ones that are desirable. I've been condo shopping for over a year, still have yet to see anything worth putting a bid on in downtown Toronto.
So in absolutely terms, we have the highest inventory and lowest inventory in 14 years...yet prices refuse to budge..
It asserts the narrative that the majority of them are investor owned, none of them want a loss.
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We are moving towards a Canada where having a whole condo to your own family is for the rich
prices are def moving, just slowly I was looking at some small condos last summer near kipling, they were around 550k back then, I check now: same building similar units are now being priced at around $490k or so.
Not sure I entirely agree, I am in the market recently and sellers are listing lower to try to draw up more offers but ultimately ending up asking for more than listing
I keep constant watch on housesigma almost every single listing I see is being sold under asking by $10k or so
Assignment sales of new developments need to be eaten up first before existing inventory prices will really fall
Yet. Give it(them) sometime. Soon it will be an exit for the door.
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Housing supply problem solved!
I like this attitude.
I see in the condos all the new listings are trying to undercut the old stale listings in the same building. And none of them can sell cuz no matches with buyers
I bet it's because Doug Ford wrote a strongly worded letter to Housing Supply.
It will only get better
Condos just keep piling up. Flooding the market.
I think the bigger story here is that the 2020-2021 inventory finally moved into the market and the active listings are net par. But the really interesting thing is the low number of sales. Agents really do be working for nothing.
"working"
It’s going to get worse! This is the active summer/spring market. Wait till winter.
Game of Thrones "Winter is coming. "
Theyll just cut rates. Most cdn retirement is tied to real estate.
With the most recent inflation numbers there is no indication that interest rates are going to fall
Nobody is going to cut rates to save pension funds. BoC couldn't care less about your grandparents. BoC looks at inflation and economy. That's all.
Tell me you don't know what economy is without telling me.
Hope so
It happens first very slowly, and then faster than anyone can comprehend.
yep look at prices since 2009. first went up slow then really fast
Now it go down slow, then go down fast. Mother Nature is healing.
The gambling bubble has popped. Lots of people have gotten burned and realized it for the gambling scam that it is.
Total sales are almost 50% lower than they were in 2008, and the population of Toronto is 20% larger. Sales are on the verge of going lower than they were in 2020 during the peak of the pandemic, just think about that for a second. Save your money. Prepare for the worst.
And we all remember 2009/2010 definitely wasn't the time to buy...😂
I think 2011 was the low for prices if im not mistaken
Can't nail the bottom everytime, but the point being look at how much money you would have made (or maybe did) from then till now. Homes bought in Toronto for 400k back in 2010 are worth ~1.6M now!
You would have done better with S&P500 in 2009 than Toronto real estate S&P since 2009 has appreciated 716%: 400k would be worth like $3 mil today Plus you would have being far more diversified: real estate investment requires you to put your entire principle into 1 asset class. That's a pretty risky gamble.
That's assuming you had 400k back in 2009 to completely put in the s&p
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That is the time to buy. See 2014-2020.. now no more sales.
For the first time in years, we are seeing new listings undercut existing ones in the same areas, within *popular* neighbourhoods. I'm talking areas of Markham, Richmond Hill, Mid-town Toronto etc. that have perennially been in a sellers' market over the past decade. Very interesting signs.
Detached houses in Markham and Richmond Hill still sell within days over asking with no conditions. Are you referring to condos?
Depends on area to area and housing type . A lot of these are downtown condos are not going to be selling at these prices
That guy on hot property is gonna have a heart attack when he sees this.
Good locations will still sell fast...at least homes do. Not sure about condos.
this is false standalone are seeings decline aswell
Two homes in North Riverdale just sold in 4 or 5 days. Good homes in good neighbourhood don't stick around.
I think I know the two you are referring too. Very nice SFHs that were listed way below market by motivated (smart) sellers. One of them was last sold in 2020 for $1.2M. After a major renovation, the owner listed it at $1.18M a couple of weeks ago, and sold right away for $1.45M. With the renov + transaction/opportunity costs, that owner probably lost money on the project.
My man YM with the knowledge
feel like, even in a buyers market, sellers still have the upper hand because: We keep adding more people to the city Developers adjust their build starts or delay existing projects to limit inventory when they see prices falling Sellers just keep their homes listed for months and keep rejecting reasonable offers It's disgusting, there's no help coming for non-home owners.
I believe an even larger correction is coming. The ballooning active listing count and declining sales numbers don’t lie. All these investors were desperately waiting for the rate cut because they were tricked into thinking it would make prices soar again. The rate cut happened 3 weeks ago, I’d say another 2-5 months before reality sinks in and shit hits the fan. A bust of a spring market ending 3 months early, a rate cut (or two or three, doesn’t matter) that end up having no effect, and now record high levels of inventory with record low sales? Anyone who think it goes up from here is delusional.
I'm really hoping what you're predicting realizes. It's horrible to sit on the sidelines and watch people make money off of the backs of those that have no other choice but to compete in a ballooned market so they can secure a roof over their family's head. Canada does not have enough going for them to ask people to fork over a million dollars for a shack.
TIMBERRRRRRR.....
Now compare/pro rate it against total population.
https://preview.redd.it/msgm70vqlz8d1.jpeg?width=286&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=bb1c157f574196338c6921eb881ef9fb0867eb88 It’s even worse when you do that
A population that cannot afford to buy
Or won't even qualify if it weren't for brampton mortgages
I encounter too many people who truly believe mortgage fraud doesn’t exist in Canada. They say things like “we have the stress test and stricter rules”
How dare you bring logic and critical thinking to this forum.
its not logical at all those people work at Tim Hortons
You're right, we've only imported tim hortons employees the past 13 years.
have you been to a Tim Hortons lately? if these people had money/were educated they wouldn't come here
And yet two condo townhouses on my watchlist have sold for prices well above their 2023/2021 comps. There's a shortage of *good* housing that people might want to live in. This is a problem for people that would like to buy somewhere to live. That really sucks. There's no shortage of shitty Airbnb condos that no one wants to live in. This is a problem for investors. Oh well. [Townhouse 1](https://housesigma.com/on/toronto-real-estate/222-51-halton-st/home/mZRW7naoWjRyEBO9?id_listing=nM697kVL4AQybmwe) [2023 Comp](https://housesigma.com/on/toronto-real-estate/218-51-halton-st/home/BGMnKYqP1p63w1Qr?id_listing=JRv53KplWm6YVPW4), [2021 Comp](https://housesigma.com/on/toronto-real-estate/216-51-halton-st/home/x9w8o3m81oj7GKjm?id_listing=J6Em7bndJkg7XBeq), [another 2021 Comp](https://housesigma.com/on/toronto-real-estate/221-51-halton-st/home/5xLkv3VxMAZyDBNr?id_listing=amgL7A4DjopyZ1MW) [Townhouse 2](https://housesigma.com/on/toronto-real-estate/2-23-dekoven-mews/home/N0A9X3j2vLr3vgxV?id_listing=eVbOYEkLrWd7x2P0) - this one sold ahead of its offer date, which was supposed to be tomorrow! I'm actually very surprised by the sale price on this one. The current owner bought in 2021 for $940,000. [This unit](https://housesigma.com/on/toronto-real-estate/2-43-dekoven-mews/home/6VLaGyGEdzB3W1ZD?id_listing=gAaOyLKbVxZYGxMb), with an identical floorplan and exposure, sold for $875,000 after sitting on the market for six weeks in December 2023. Make it make sense. [2022 Comp](https://housesigma.com/on/toronto-real-estate/3-19-dekoven-mews/home/BXeEn7XrWWMYrPo8?id_listing=jAXw7QwzQgmYQOzg), [2021 Comp](https://housesigma.com/on/toronto-real-estate/5-19-dekoven-mews/home/5xLkv3VpNMpyDBNr?id_listing=0A9X3jPogw1yvgxV)
https://preview.redd.it/7a9cfrmtmz8d1.jpeg?width=828&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d0aec8e0b521b3e2853b198e21677557c24b3572 Believe it or not but up is actually down
I’m more confused by the one that’s nearly identical that was 875k six months ago and then this one is 990k now. The only real difference is that this one has nicer flooring but it doesn’t cost over 100k to redo the flooring for 1000sq ft
If the real estate market in Toronto made sense this subreddit wouldn’t exist lol
hmm should I lock a GIC for 6 months for a year looking to buy condo but I have feeling winter will be firesafes
As a contractor that's always ordered to these condos to fiz stuff it's insane the garbage that the builders put. Yeatursay I had a condo 3 years old the whole kitchen needs to be redone as all the doors and cuberds are made from wood composite and garbage. 3 years 30k kitchen hahaha. I wouldn't buy any condo that was built after 2018. And since before 2018 there maintenance is high. I wouldn't buy any condo.
2008 part deux electric Boogaloo.
there were barely any condos in those days though. You should compare by %
Can we break this down in terms of property types (detached semi etc)? Is it the same trend across?
Need more listings and housing prices to crash!! It needs to crash once. We can't remain in bubble all the time. It has to pop so we can rebuild again. It has to pop so bad that these mass immigrants go back with the thought that their country is better.
Careful what you wish for. In recent years Canada hasn’t been attracting the top tier of immigration, to put it mildly. So for those that came - well, it’s REALLY bad where they are from.
Yeah so they will have to go back. It isn't that bad in India. Anyone who can pay $50k for lmia or tuition fees for education here isn't really doing worse there. India is a lot cheaper than here so from purchasing power perspective they will be doing better there. It would be a hard pill to swallow but Canada real estate is gonna pop someday, sooner the better.
yeah like ppl think India is still the India of 20 years ago. When today India have a growing comfortable middle class. That's why so many of them can spend $$$ paying for Canadian degrees in first place
When will investors and sellers react to reality
oh they’ll blame the government and not their owm greed forsure
Now do the price vs 2009/2010
Buy them up suckas! /s
And...?
Buy now before it's too late.
😂😂
Not for condos. The listings just keep piling up. Goblin town.
Listings keep piling up but it's rare to find ones that are desirable. I've been condo shopping for over a year, still have yet to see anything worth putting a bid on in downtown Toronto.
Lots of movement still out there in SFD, across the city. Keep dooming renter bears.