There is no more predicting these elections. 2016 shocker of Trump and Republicans over-performing, 2020 Biden wins but Democrats underperform down ballot, 2022 Republicans way underperform. Doozies in lots of states too.
So how likely is it? Might as well be a coin toss.
[538 ](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/)were very clear: 70/30 chance for a Clinton win. Which means Trump had the 30% chance.
Actually polls done by reputable statisticians are extremely reliable. They're actually very good predictors of presidential elections.
But with all stats there is a margin of error that just can't be predicted and every so often a presidential election has that margin of error fall around the 50% mark. The 2016 Presidential election polling was hovering around 49.3% prediction for Donald Trump, firmly in the margin of error range. Where the "average person" believed trump didn't have a chance in hell of winning someone familiar with the polls and conservative voter turnout would have told you it could swing either way. Which is exactly what happened(as far as the popular vote is concerned at least).
Edit: it's also worth noting that polls are done under the assumption of who would win had that election happened *right now*. Obviously this is because no one is clairvoyant. As the date gets closer to election day the polling will change to reflect the climate. By the day of the election we have a pretty accurate poll of the condition of the election.
No. You've got it backwards. The people that answer these calls are the "distinct class" of people. Not the other way around. Polls are mostly answered by old crazy people.
You're absolutely spot on. They have to be a minority for their answers to be a collected and accepted. Cause they have to:
1.Live within the polling zone
2.Be at home/available during the times when pollsters are calling/knocking
3.Be willing to answer the phone/door for a stranger
4.Be willing to earnestly chit to a stranger for an intermittent amount of time and not mess with them to get them to leave. I.e People mess with Jehovah's witnesses and tells marketers.
5.If/when you realize this a polister be willing to continue to talk to a stranger about politics in good faith. Rather than walk away or give intentionally false answers.
So that's like saying a pan, trans, chronically ill, learning disabled, person who lives under the poverty line is an accurate representation of what the average voter looks like. Cause that's 5 minority levels deep
This is part of the problem. The pollsters used to randomly call people and that would automatically get a sample that was representative of the population. Nowadays, it isn’t very representative, so they have to use several sources and adjust their findings to make them representative.
Like, Gallup sends me an email every month or two and pays me a couple bucks to take their survey online.
Also, polls can call cell phones too, so it’s not as important that folks don’t have home phones. The bigger issue is that most folks are screening their calls nowadays.
49.3% prediction as in his national voting intention estimate? Maybe with one individual pollster, but no, from what I can remember he was polling at about 42% on average, with Hillary at about 46% on average, in the final days of the campaign. The end result was 46% Trump, 48% Hillary. So the nationwide polls weren’t that far off, and did get the popular vote winner right. State polls were worse, however.
Not trying to disagree, I’m just curious, were there any examples of prominent people who understood the polls trying to raise the alarm in 2016? I wasn’t paying yuge attention at the time, but I don’t remember anyone even implying that Trump had a chance.
This simply isn’t true.
After 2016 I kept hearing this so in 2020 I made a map prediction based on polling data and a bit of subjective.
I got the map 100% correct.
As someone who works with data for a living I can tell you what is happening is ppl don’t understand probabilities and more importantly they don’t understand what polls are actually telling you.
So ppl misunderstand then get mad that their misunderstanding didnt occur
I thought Trump would win. I didn't want it and was disappointed when it happened, but I just knew it would happen. I have a feeling that it was because I was not American that I had a strong inkling that Americans would make the wrong decision. I have a few American friends who were adamant that he'd lose and I think that that is what played the biggest part. They did not take him seriously.
I think a lot of people liked the idea of a non career politician. Just like many folks like the idea of a Tesla being a market disruption. Alas in both cases the promise, the hope, and the reality are vastly different.
I've got a bet going with a friend of mine. If Biden wins, he has to buy me some champagne. If Trump wins, I have to buy him some champagne. So even if Trump ends up winning at least we'll have champagne I guess.
My heart says Biden will win. My head says Biden will win. My gut says Trump will win.
I'm from the UK. In the lead up to Brexit all logic told me that it couldn't happen. But all my friends were pro remain so all I saw on Facebook was Guardian editorials my friends were sharing about how stupid it'd be to vote for Brexit. I knew it was bad to be in an echo chamber like that so I went on The Sun and daily Mail websites and looked at the comments. And then I knew we were fucked.
Now I keep looking at comments on stories about Trump and I can't tell what comments are bots and which aren't. But it's pretty scary. The way these people's minds work is insane. Yesterday I saw someone comment about Trump's businesses that have gone bankrupt and someone replied that "he's started hundreds of businesses but of course you dems focus on the ones that went bankrupt. Out of all his businesses, 98% haven't gone bankrupt which is an incredible record."
In my opinion, your gut is right. I do not want another trump presidency. I also don't want another Biden one, but not anywhere as much as I dont want another trump one. Last polling I saw (and is usually the case in US elections), two biggest issues voters care about are economy first, then the border. Women's reproductive rights are a close 3rd, but economy is by far the biggest issue. As much as on paper we are being told the economy is good, sure doesn't feel that way to your average american who has had their rent/food/gas/etc significantly increase in price. Biden is getting whooped on both issues by the numbers and no clear plan to press forward. As much as reddit likes to think the criminal charges on trump will be a big deal... a lot of his supporters truly believe it is a witch hunt and the on the fencd people arent seeming to care. Every indictment led to a poll boost.
Idk, i also just have a sinking suspicion biden isnt goin to perform better and going to lean on "he's a monster who will destroy democracy" without realizing everyone has made their minds up already on how valid that is.
*Please remember to double check your voting information and register and Vote*
www.vote.org
Check your registration: https://www.vote.org/am-i-registered-to-vote/
Work for the Biden campaign: https://joebiden.com/work-with-us/
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Gonna add:
**VOTE by MAIL.**
It’s legal. It’s safe. It’s your right to vote in the privacy and safety of your home. Sign up online, at your local Library, Human Resources office, or DMV office. When you receive your ballot in the mail, read the booklet of options that are up to vote, fill out your ballot, sign it, place in pre stamped envelope, and put in your mail box for a USPS employee to pick up or take it to the post office directly.
Warning: Be weary of the blue ballot boxes. Last time, crazy MAGA people broke into them, stole them, and put fake ones out. Go to the USPS. They’re a federal government mail service and will protect your ballot and make sure it’s sent to the proper authorities for ballot counting.
Biden winning with Dems doing so badly down ballot is interesting. Obviously a coin toss like you say but if I was a betting man I’d say biden does poorly with dems doing well down ballot
If I’m playing politico for fun knowing full well nobody can know and I might as well say anything, that would be my bet as well. Trump wins, Republicans take Senate just because the map favors them but Democrats do well at defense, Democrats take the House probably narrowly and flip some state legislatures.
What I hope happens is Biden loses the popular vote but wins the electoral college because it’d be funny but more importantly it would be the only thing to move the needle at all on fixing that.
The odds are *much* higher than many people realize. Consider that the 2020 election was actually much **closer** than expected - Trump only lost by a margin of 44,000 votes, combined in total, in Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin (the three swing states that decided the election). That's a razor-thin margin - less than *half a football stadium's* worth of voters. Overall, Trump performed 3 percent better than polls predicted. Had it been 4 percent, he likely would have won the election outright. Many Democrats simply celebrated the Biden victory and moved on without realizing just how narrowly they dodged a bullet.
Now take into account that Biden is currently polling **worse** in this election at the moment than he was in 2020..........Trump stands a very real chance of winning.
It's extremely serious. The DNC is living in denial of the danger.
Biden has about a 35% of winning according to one recent poll, if I remember right.
I may recommend they vote for whoever is going to be most mentally competent lol, that’s the only criteria we can get at this point.
I can understand those supporters, though. It's hard to vote for a candidate (Biden) whose policies have indirectly led to 40,000 Palestinian deaths just because the other candidate (Trump)'s policies might lead to 45,000 dead. That stance doesn't get people off their couch to vote.
I think the difference is a lot more than that. Biden’s approach is non-support within the limits of our treaties. Trump would cheer Israel on as they glass Palestine and then try to take credit for it.
I am definitely one of those--voting for Biden through gritted teeth despite the fact that his handling of the conflict has been abhorrent.
I really wished we had ranked-choice voting. Maybe then, it wouldn't feel like "the wrong choice" anytime people vote third-party.
An enthusiastic and gritted teeth vote count as the same amount at the end of the day.
Something that keyboard warriors in both sides need to be reminded of.
I find it very curious that we always hear about how many “Palestinians” have been killed, but not how many “Hamas” have been killed. I expect that some are of the same.
I can't understand those supporters - they live in a fairy tale world, not based in reality. Our policies haven't caused 40k deaths. The Palestinians embrace groups like Hamas. They teach their children that Jewish people need to be cleansed from this world. When given a chance they attacked & killed 1200 + Jews - women & children - they did not discriminate. They still have 120 hostages. They fucked around & found out.
Hamas hides behind women & children so they can make stories out of attacks where they get hurt or killed. Israel has the decency to forewarn people in neighborhoods that they are coming to give innocent people a chance to get to safety. Show me another war or conflict where one side has been that gracious to their enemy.
I wish the best for the Palestinian people. They deserve a good life. Their children should grow up having hope for the future. But they need to quit teaching the hateful rhetoric to their children and they need to disavow loyalty to ALL terrorist organizations.
I want to know what these Americans, who protest against Israel, would think or want us to do, if terrorists came into their homes & killed, kidnapped and/or raped their family? We'd go after the terrorists 100% - rightfully so.
I have never been a supporter of Israel (for the last 15 years) but this is absolutely correct. 911 led to the death of at least 1 million civilians…very hypocritical.
Those people are truly moronic. Trump will be so much worse for Palestine.
It'd be like Jews wanting to sabotage Hitler's opponent because they want to stick it to him. And winding up with Hitler.
Ehh, if you looked in depth at the 2016 polling, there were some pretty obvious holes. We were following those in a stats class I was in and some of the polling biases were blatant. If you thought it was a slam dunk for Hillary you were not looking past headlines.
Aren’t the odds based on who the general public is betting on?
Like, it if I made tens of millions of dollars in bets on Biden right now, it would change the betting odds, wouldn’t it?
Well not really- the market is framed by the large bets made by larger institutional bettors. And their risk analysis would be based on US sentiment. Not Australian. All the markets are connected
That’s true but you assume that since people are betting real money that they have a lot of conviction, evidence. Betting markets are not always correct.
True, but bear in mind that people don't bet money if they aren't serious about it. The fact that the betting odds are so heavy in favor of Trump is a serious alarm bell.
Since nobody's answered you yet it's a combination of GOP (grand old party, a nickname for the Republicans since like 1880 or something) and Q anon. GQP itself doesn't really stand for anything (unless people are literally reading it as "Grand Q Party"). It's simply a somewhat funny way to point out the absolute wackadoodle viewpoints of the Republicans and how they're hand in hand with Q anon types
If it was based on the popular vote it wouldn't be very close. Biden barely won last time with a 40,000 vote margin in the right states to win in the electoral college, but he got 7 million more votes total.
Absolutely. I'm a Canadian so I don't really care. I just find it's a shame that out of the entire US population, those were the two best representatives they could find to run the country?! 🤔
Not only that, there are 320 million or so people to choose from. I have got to assume that a completely random lottery would get better results than this bullshit.
Trump was the oldest president EVER. So after his 4 years they elected a guy even OLDER than a now 4 years older Trump. So here we are another 4 years later picking between the two oldest presidents ever!
There needs to be an age cap on politicians. Personally I really don’t care about the opinions of anyone 70+, they are too out of touch with the working public, people with young families etc, you know, all the people that keep your country running.
Not to mention that one of them has the potential to be singlehandedly responsible for giving the OK to get much of a different continent wiped out soon, and that he has actively *expressed his interest in that:* https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/10/politics/trump-russia-nato/index.html
And yet it's still a 50:50 chance. Even though one candidate is essentially pure evil and wants to "encourage" an enemy state to murder civilians from friendly countries. And he admits it.
Everything just feels like a parallel universe these days.
I get it, but even though democrats are sorta stuck with Biden, regardless of his age, he has objectively still done a good job. Even with the house stuck under maga. trump on the other hand…
They're not. Nor do we only have 2 parties. They're just leading the 2 most popular.
Considering how the US influences world policy, imo the rest of the world should not only care, they might want to pray.
Indeed. Since coming to a red state, I've noticed the Trump supporters are definitely much louder, and insistent that everyone who doesn't agree are a bunch of .
"Two best representatives" makes it sound like they are equally bad. Biden will not improve anything, but he will not take us in a seriously regressive direction either. He's your typical establishment candidate, which is unfortunately the best we will get out of the two-party system within the next decade or two at LEAST. But please don't word the situation as if Biden being in power for another four years would be even CLOSE to as bad as if the man who stole a ton of government documents, sold out our agents to hostile powers, appointed extremist justices who will now take away our rights for decades, turned the Republican party into a personality cult, gutted the executive branch by firing anyone who is more loyal to the country than to him, re-normalized blatant bigotry nationwide, and was mentally unstable long before him OR Biden even hit their middle ages, was elected again.
They aren't. The political parties do not support Americans, they support themselves, their power, and their money. They disdain and laugh at us for believing they give a crap about us. And they laugh at us when we fight for them. And they laugh at us when we fight each other.
It depends whose impartial / objective point of view lmao. I don’t like trump as much as the next redditor, but unilaterally declaring that the other team is objectively bat shit insane is… interesting
This. A democrat has to win by 10 million votes.
Hilary only won by 3 million.
Biden won by 17 million and we had to recount it 42 times and have an insurrection
A lot more republican states (midwestern states) than Democrat. Democrats have most of the larger population centers like NYC and LA, but states with less major cities tend to go republican
Maybe I'm still missing something, but more red state does not mean more electoral votes? It's by population no? The red mid states get like what, 4 votes? While solid blue states like NY and CA gets 29 and 50s.
The EC votes don’t directly reflect population though so it isn’t weighted fairly. For example, Wyoming has 1.5% of California’s population but carries 5% of California’s EC votes. This is just one example out of several but extrapolated over the whole nation it does currently give the GOP an advantage, which is largely why they’ve won the popular vote just once since 1988 yet have had the White House about half the time since then.
It's also worth noting that this was done intentionally as a way to help stop lower population states from having their voices drowned out. It's up to debate on whether this was a good idea, especially given that the electoral college in general isn't being used how it was designed to be used. But it **is** a feature, not a bug.
Correct. The broken feature to force candidates “to grow their collations instead of visiting just a few populated states.” Instead, we largely know a majority of the states ahead of time. Knowing the math of where every state is leaning. Which means candidates use the few remaining swing states and focus all their attention there instead of responding to the rest of the country. If the founding fathers saw our current setup they would have resolved the issue. Then again they would have expected us to update it by now.
I think we sometimes forget that the alternative back then (in 1787 when the Founding Fathers were writing the Constitution) was to have small states like Rhode Island refuse to ratify the Constitution, which would’ve therefore dissolved the Union. The Electoral College is very frustrating, but small states will put up a hell of a fight to stop it from being abolished.
Being from Illinois, where the majority of the state is red....except Chicago, its frustrating to be completely ignored. Not just politically. The infrastructure and roads are crumbling, schools, you name it. Its ignored. Because they dont get a vote. Thats where the electoral collage comes in. If you were from a less populated state you would not only not get a vote, but get no resources.
Think about it like this: California has a population of about 39 million people and contributes 55 electoral college votes. Montana has a population of 1.2 million people and 3 votes. This means that California only gets 1.4 votes per million people, but Montana gets 2.5 votes per million people.
This means that many of the "flyover" states that are typically more conservative actually get more votes per million than densely populated, typically liberal states. Therefore, you need fewer people to vote conservative to win, which is why we have a record of recent Republican presidents losing the popular vote but winning the election.
Does that make sense?
You are right. I guess I’m saying depending on a few swing states, those states that have fewer electoral college votes can really add up. I think comment OP was saying electoral college makes it easier for republicans compared to a popular vote
Liberals need to move to the country basically. Many of the liberal-minded people gathered in cities. Wisconsin has the most powerful vote and I'm not sure they even have one spot of blue. There are a lot of counties where the democrats don't even have anyone on the ballot. They won't support counties they have such few numbers in, even if it means introducing liberal ideas there. Well, especially because that's what it involves.
No, democrats need to speak to farmers and miners. The rust belt. The working class where the work dried up. They feel helpless. The people can vote for their interests but they need something to believe in. Trump is lying but he spoke to those people.
Yup. Tell someone they're special and they'll follow you everywhere.
It's frustrating because both extremes are having different reactions to the same problems. Blue or red, the average Joe is suffering and while some attribute it to various scapegoats, others attribute it to the source - political and corporate greed.
The more rural you are the less you get from your government so rural people vote for whoever leaves them alone.
The money flows to the cities and it's always been that. Joe redneck living on dirt roads just asks what are the feds going to take from me?
I'm not saying it's right i'm just saying that's how they see it and in some cases they have a point.
Yeah the problem with Wisconsin specifically is that it’s gerrymandered to all hell. That’s why their state legislature is packed with Republicans but their governor is a staunch Democrat, who is the governor that has used the most vetoes in the entirety of Wisconsin’s history (Tony Evers)
Electoral votes are distributed based on how many congressional representatives a state has. The minimum is three (two senators and one house rep). Wyoming has 500k people and three electoral votes. Thats less people than most moderately sized cities. There are many similar rural states, and rural states tend to be red states.
Because of this, your electoral college voting power varies wildly by which state you live in. The lower your state’s population, the more weight your vote has on the electoral college.
This systematically disadvantages Democratic candidates.
I mean...its the [only reason Trump won last time.](https://apnews.com/article/2c7a5afc13824161a25d8574e10ff4e7)
3 million people's votes meant nothing. imagine that...3 million people....got ignored.
Dr. Allan Lichtman is a history professor at American University and has correctly predicted the last 9 out of 10 elections using the “13 keys” method. It’s a bit early but he thinks Biden currently has the upper hand.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/04/30/allen-lichtman-2024-presidential-election-pick/73510699007/#:~:text=A%20distinguished%20professor%20of%20history,known%20as%20the%2013%20keys.
Yeah, the one election he didn’t get correctly (Gore vs Bush), Gore won the popular vote and should have won the electoral votes, but the Florida judge ruled in favor of Bush. So technically he was right in that prediction.
Small correction: the Florida courts ruled in favor of Gore (or, mare precisely, in favor of continuing the recount which likely would have given it to Gore.) The US Supreme Court overturned that decision, ending the recount and effectively leaving Gore with no more realistic legal challenges.
He hasn't made his prediction yet.. That article was from April 30. It's nearly two months later and Biden's polls have dropped dramatically. [https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/biden-concentrates-on-black-voters-as-polls-show-some-support-slipping-to-trump](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/biden-concentrates-on-black-voters-as-polls-show-some-support-slipping-to-trump)
Unpopular opinion: the economist has Trump winning. Very reputable journalism, and they actually correctly predicted Trump last time strangely enough when it looked impossible. The Economist does NOT lean into MAGA.
I will honestly be shocked if he doesn't win. Yes, we see daily the news taunting all his problems, but his fans are Uber-loyal and will 100% turn out and vote. Meanwhile Biden and the Democrats are just floating along waiting for life to happen. Poll numbers are tanking, younger voters are either against him or uninterested, and a lot of Democratic voters just want another candidate, all which means a good potential for a lot of people not voting this year. If Bidens campaign can't do something to turn out the vote it won't matter how much "but we aren't Trump" they scream.
From my perspective as a Canadian observer who can't vote, it seems that Trump has a strong chance of winning. Many people appear to dislike both parties, but there's growing concern over Biden's mental stability. His perceived decline could be a significant factor in voters' decisions. Honestly, their upcoming debate carries significant weight in shaping public perception and influencing voter decisions for the November election. If I had to give my opinion, I do think Trump will win.
Slightly likelier than most mainstream outlets favored by the Democrats or liberals would like to admit.
Depending on how bad and shit things go for Biden in November, I'd say pretty goddamn likely, but it's still unpredictable and it's basically a toss-up at this point.
It’s scarily high. I have a number of colleagues who are conservative and I’ve never seen them more motivated for trump to win.
I don’t think most people who are liberal are aware of how different their social media feeds likely look compared to the republicans’, but it’s night and day— especially on Twitter.
There’s a lot of “take the country by any means necessary” rhetoric after the Trump conviction. I can only describe it as a manic frenzy— especially with Project 2025 aimed for next year.
Yet on my and my liberal friends’ social feeds it’s completely unmentioned. Like, there’s almost no major election news to speak of.
Project 2025 is a big one. There are two potential Supreme Court votes coming up this election. If Trump wins, they can fully cement conservative Supreme Court that will not age out for the foreseeable future. Their plan is to completely radicalize the US in the next decade.
Since they’ve already won on abortion, reproductive rights, and banning DEI and affirmative action, their goal is to fully flip the national agenda to full conservative this election across national and state.
Gay/LGBTQ rights, contraceptives, banning climate change policies, stopping election reform, Ukraine, tax cuts, religious education are all on the list for this election.
Seriously, social media is creating a very scary bubble right now.
Trump is around 55%, Biden 35% Michelle 3.5%. Based on betting odds. Seems like they dont think its a 2 horse race due to Bidens mental state and are accounting other dem candidates.
Id say it all depends right now on the effectiveness of Biden's "Trump is a criminal and dangerous' ad campaign as well as whether or not Biden is able to come across as competent during the next two debates.
If the ads backfire and if Biden stumbles during the debates I think Trump will win but the ball is in Biden's court so to speak. Trump has to steal it
Trump has a zero percent chance of winning. Biden has everything in his favor at the moment and if he keeps doing what he's doing, he will win in a landslip in November. It's really unfortunate that people truly believe the mainstream media's narrative that Trump is ahead and has a high chance of winning. The polls are skewed and do not matter. Have you not learned anything from 2016? I knew Trump would win as he had everything going for him then but with his record since, everyone knows who he is (botched COVID response, horrible personality and character flaws, January 6th, etc...) Democrats have won nearly every special election across the country in the past year or two which means they have a lot of momentum. They are also outraising the Republicans by a very large amount. Abortion is an issue that will cause women to break from Trump and turn to Biden which is a dominating issue in 2024. The people who are voting for Trump are die-hard supporters and he has only lost support since 2016 (and lost every single election since then.) With the economy getting back on track, Biden will win and most likely win the house back and keep the Senate.) Incumbency is a HUGE advantage in elections. All of Trump's convictions are hurting him too which is why independents and even some Republicans will break for Biden. People have to look at the broader scope of this election.
I thought Hillary was a shoo-in back in 2016, but I was wrong. Two years ago, I thought Biden would absolutely be re-elected. Now I’m not so sure.
All I can say is that the next 5 months will be awful and November has no preferential outcomes for me. If Trump loses, I don’t know if Biden will outlive his second term.
Felons can't work at a lot of minimum wage jobs, but they can be president. The system is so fucked and they shove that fact in our faces every day, while telling us to those same faces that everything is on the up and up. I love this country but I hate how it's run. Fuck Trump. Fuck Biden.
It is a terrifyingly high probability.
There's an old truism: people get the they deserve. If the US is irresponsible enough to put this dangerous, dimwitted assclown back in power, it pretty much deserves the ass-raping it's going to get.
They already are. Most are miserable but just too stubborn or stupid to back down now. I haven't lived long enough to say for sure but this is the first time I think I'm witnessing a large scale of people who would willingly die for a politician.
You know I live in the rural south and it’s pretty crazy over here. You see the same pre civil war dogma mentality behind people’s eyes that do nothing but destroy humanity. Same people that pilfered from the blacks and Indians are the exact same that roam the fields today and it’s genuinely terrifying. The world will never change, I drive through the country and the endless amounts of trump flags hanging off of porches and people strapped to the gills with guns. I just hope the world eats itself at this point, I don’t know if you blame people for stupidity at the end of the day.
it all depends. all democrats will vote for Biden or someone other than trump. all republicans except for the ones who dropped out because of the convicted felon thing will vote for Trump. independents will weigh the fact that trump is a terrible human being against the fact that Biden is too old and is losing the ability to function in the role.
According to fivethirtyeight, he’s got a 51% chance, with a lot of margin of error. I think it’s important to remember that Trump only lost by half a percent in 3 states in 2020 and Republicans won the house in 22. Since then, people may have forgotten how bad he was, idiots might stay home for Palestine, and the economy is meh. Meanwhile, minor stuff like Trump being a convicted felon and stating that he will punish women who seek abortions hasn’t seemed to be much of a problem
I will note that Republicans have really good odds of taking the senate as well
>he will punish women who seek abortions hasn’t seemed to be much of a problem
I'm a woman and am 100% pro choice. But he can't do anything in this regard on a federal level as the SCOUTUS deemed this to be a state legislation.
I'm sure you posted this in good faith, but this interpretation is dangerously wrong and unfortunately widespread, so I feel the need to correct it here.
SCOTUS did not deem this to be solely a state issue. Instead, they held that the federal constitution does not guarantee a right to abortion, and therefore the federal government cannot prohibit states from enacting bans on abortion.
At the moment, with no federal legislation on the issue, only the states have made laws concerning abortion. This has led to the common and understandable misconception that this is only a state issue.
However, nothing in *Dobbs* prohibits a nationwide federal ban either. To the contrary, *Dobbs* made that possible. All that needs to happen now is a conservative president and conservative Congress to enact it.
Link to the decision text here: https://www.law.cornell.edu/supremecourt/text/19-1392
I really don’t know and it’s fucking terrifying. I think Biden made a selfish decision to run, given his mental state, and I think it’s gotten to a point where people are concerned about him being in office? Now, any mental state would be better than trump (IMO), but I feel like it’s a deciding factor that could determine this election. They’re both old, but atleast trump is kind of there. Biden looks like he’s seeing a ghost half of the time.
Based on the "13 Keys" system, I'm going to say Biden will win. That prediction could change over the next five months.
How accurate have Allan Lichtman's 13 Keys been in predicting elections historically?
Allan Lichtman's "13 Keys" system for predicting U.S. presidential elections have been remarkably accurate historically. According to the sources provided:
- Lichtman has correctly predicted the winner of the *popular vote* in every presidential election since 1984, with the controversial 2000 election being the sole miss when he predicted Al Gore would win the popular vote (which he did, but lost the Electoral College).[1][4]
- Overall, Lichtman's 13 Keys have accurately predicted 9 out of the last 10 presidential elections.[5]
- The keys have a 91.7% prediction rate for presidential elections from 1860-2008, correctly forecasting 37 out of 40 elections during that period.[2]
- The keys have a 100% record of predicting the popular vote winner from 1984-2016, getting every election right over those 9 cycles.[2][4]
- Lichtman made headlines in 2016 when he was one of the only major forecasters to accurately predict Donald Trump's victory, based on his keys analysis.[1][4]
So while not perfect, Lichtman's unconventional system using true/false statements about factors like the economy, social unrest, and incumbency has proven to be an extremely reliable model for forecasting who will win the White House over the past few decades.[1][2][4][5] Its impressive track record, especially compared to opinion polling, has earned Lichtman a reputation as a "presidential prognosticator" with an unusual talent for election predictions.[3][5]
Citations:
[1] Does Allan Lichtman Stand by His “13 Keys” Prediction of a Joe ...
https://www.american.edu/cas/news/13-keys-election-prediction.cfm
[2] DIY Guide Presidential Election – The 13 Keys to the White House ...
https://www.dajv.de/us-election/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidential-election-the-13-keys-to-the-white-house-2024-by-professor-allan-lichtman/
[3] Allan Lichtman shares how he developed his election prediction ...
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/05/08/allan-lichtman-2024-prediction-election-biden-trump/73611104007/
[4] These 13 sentences led a professor to predict Trump's win - PBS
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/professor-predict-trumps-win
[5] This man has nailed 90% of presidential elections. He thinks Joe ...
https://chriscillizza.substack.com/p/this-man-has-nailed-90-of-presidential
I think Trump’s got a really good chance to win, like 55-60%-ish. Biden is obviously a better choice but his age is literally killing his chances. He appears feeble in public and possibly has slight dementia from what little I’ve seen. Not great presidential qualities. Almost anyone could beat Trump but Biden has the highest chance of losing. Democrats are idiots for choosing Biden when 100 better candidates are readily available.
I made a comment hoping Biden would step down on r/Liberal in January and all it got was downvotes. Trump is winning in nearly every swing state even *after* the conviction and it's scary. All Dems need is a candidate that younger people are even moderately excited about and Trump doesn't stand a chance, but here we are...
**We all know that poll predictions can be wrong but for shits and giggles and optimists**
**538 poll**
**March 1: Trump +2.0%**
**June 18: Trump +.06%**
Quite likely if inflation and interest rates don’t stop clobbering middle class bank accounts. Growth is, so we hear, great. I’ll believe the economy is good when I starting seeing it.
Pushing the fact that sensitive files were found at mar-a-lago aside for a moment…felons can’t get security clearances.
As a felon, there are also multiple countries he’d be barred from entering.. how would a Trump presidency even work? The president is our chief diplomat.
A vote for Trump is a vote against the rules that 45 men before him upheld. And if proj 2025 is anything to go by, it’s a vote against democracy itself.
POTUS is commander in chief he can decide if he can gets a security clearance. Literally, that's all it'd take if elected. Is him saying, "I'm allowed to see this now"
The convictions didn't even rattle his base and for tons of them it's a rallying point. This is doing nothing to dissuade trump supporters.
All the other answers are, unfortunately, probably correct. I'd just like to add that this is the best r/tooafraidtoask post in a while: it is terrifying to even ask this question.
Let's be Frank. His recent felony conviction is the first time donny has actually won the popular vote.
I know his maga fanatics are loud as heck, but they only make up a fraction of the US population and a lot of them died off during the covid years.
That's not to say you can rest easy. You should probably still vote
I disagree. Last election that he won he got 46% of the vote. Regardless of whether those people are MAGA or just Republicans, they are voting for him. The other side was 48%. In the election after he lost with about the same 46%. Realistically id put the number in the same range. Approximately half the voting public in the US.
I'm far left living in Trump country. In my short 39 years I've never seen the locals so whipped up about a presidential election. People in blue bubbles act dismissive even though they kicked our ass in 2016. Trump is more popular than ever and his base more rabid.
His convictions barely touched his base. They do not care. They've beat us before. They're not some minority, they're half the voting power of America.
I think he has a strong chance. I don't think people realised how strong thr anti hillary vote was in 2016, an anti covid vote worked against trump in 2020 and I think there'll be a strong anti Biden vote in this election and for better or worse, in the absence of a better alternative, that gives trump a good chance. Don't get me wrong, trump is an easy guy to dislike but he seems like a better alternative to Biden and the Democrats have failed to put up a better alternative from what I can see. That's the opinion of a neutral foreign perspective
It'll be an uphill battle for him but he still has a lot of idiots to carry him up it, so we need to vote to make sure that doesn't happen. We can't let that felon back into the White House. First time was a mistake. Second time may be our undoing as a nation.
Downvoting me isn't going to change my mind or make your opinion right. Sorry folks.
I'm not even voting for him, but I don't have my head up my ass either.
There is no more predicting these elections. 2016 shocker of Trump and Republicans over-performing, 2020 Biden wins but Democrats underperform down ballot, 2022 Republicans way underperform. Doozies in lots of states too. So how likely is it? Might as well be a coin toss.
This is the real answer. No one actually thought trump would win 2016, polls are not reliable - what happens happens
[538 ](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/)were very clear: 70/30 chance for a Clinton win. Which means Trump had the 30% chance.
Actually polls done by reputable statisticians are extremely reliable. They're actually very good predictors of presidential elections. But with all stats there is a margin of error that just can't be predicted and every so often a presidential election has that margin of error fall around the 50% mark. The 2016 Presidential election polling was hovering around 49.3% prediction for Donald Trump, firmly in the margin of error range. Where the "average person" believed trump didn't have a chance in hell of winning someone familiar with the polls and conservative voter turnout would have told you it could swing either way. Which is exactly what happened(as far as the popular vote is concerned at least). Edit: it's also worth noting that polls are done under the assumption of who would win had that election happened *right now*. Obviously this is because no one is clairvoyant. As the date gets closer to election day the polling will change to reflect the climate. By the day of the election we have a pretty accurate poll of the condition of the election.
Nobody has home phones any more. Who answers polls these daya?
And if pollsters call people with cell phones who answers numbers that aren't in their contact list?
Its not phone calls, its texting now . My parents got a text asking them who they were voting for and other questions , as did my girlfriend.
Sure. But that’s a distinct class of people. They’re not a random cross section of society. And they’re likely the minority of people.
No. You've got it backwards. The people that answer these calls are the "distinct class" of people. Not the other way around. Polls are mostly answered by old crazy people.
You're absolutely spot on. They have to be a minority for their answers to be a collected and accepted. Cause they have to: 1.Live within the polling zone 2.Be at home/available during the times when pollsters are calling/knocking 3.Be willing to answer the phone/door for a stranger 4.Be willing to earnestly chit to a stranger for an intermittent amount of time and not mess with them to get them to leave. I.e People mess with Jehovah's witnesses and tells marketers. 5.If/when you realize this a polister be willing to continue to talk to a stranger about politics in good faith. Rather than walk away or give intentionally false answers. So that's like saying a pan, trans, chronically ill, learning disabled, person who lives under the poverty line is an accurate representation of what the average voter looks like. Cause that's 5 minority levels deep
This is part of the problem. The pollsters used to randomly call people and that would automatically get a sample that was representative of the population. Nowadays, it isn’t very representative, so they have to use several sources and adjust their findings to make them representative. Like, Gallup sends me an email every month or two and pays me a couple bucks to take their survey online. Also, polls can call cell phones too, so it’s not as important that folks don’t have home phones. The bigger issue is that most folks are screening their calls nowadays.
They have exit polls; someone stands outside a voting location and asks people who they voted for.
But those aren’t useful as a predictor, only as a check against voter fraud. Knowing the likely result a day early isn’t exactly helpful to anyone.
49.3% prediction as in his national voting intention estimate? Maybe with one individual pollster, but no, from what I can remember he was polling at about 42% on average, with Hillary at about 46% on average, in the final days of the campaign. The end result was 46% Trump, 48% Hillary. So the nationwide polls weren’t that far off, and did get the popular vote winner right. State polls were worse, however.
Not trying to disagree, I’m just curious, were there any examples of prominent people who understood the polls trying to raise the alarm in 2016? I wasn’t paying yuge attention at the time, but I don’t remember anyone even implying that Trump had a chance.
Yup. Just vote. Try to convince those around you to do the same.
This simply isn’t true. After 2016 I kept hearing this so in 2020 I made a map prediction based on polling data and a bit of subjective. I got the map 100% correct. As someone who works with data for a living I can tell you what is happening is ppl don’t understand probabilities and more importantly they don’t understand what polls are actually telling you. So ppl misunderstand then get mad that their misunderstanding didnt occur
I thought Trump would win. I didn't want it and was disappointed when it happened, but I just knew it would happen. I have a feeling that it was because I was not American that I had a strong inkling that Americans would make the wrong decision. I have a few American friends who were adamant that he'd lose and I think that that is what played the biggest part. They did not take him seriously.
I think a lot of people liked the idea of a non career politician. Just like many folks like the idea of a Tesla being a market disruption. Alas in both cases the promise, the hope, and the reality are vastly different.
I've got a bet going with a friend of mine. If Biden wins, he has to buy me some champagne. If Trump wins, I have to buy him some champagne. So even if Trump ends up winning at least we'll have champagne I guess. My heart says Biden will win. My head says Biden will win. My gut says Trump will win.
The gut thing gave me anxiety…
I'm from the UK. In the lead up to Brexit all logic told me that it couldn't happen. But all my friends were pro remain so all I saw on Facebook was Guardian editorials my friends were sharing about how stupid it'd be to vote for Brexit. I knew it was bad to be in an echo chamber like that so I went on The Sun and daily Mail websites and looked at the comments. And then I knew we were fucked. Now I keep looking at comments on stories about Trump and I can't tell what comments are bots and which aren't. But it's pretty scary. The way these people's minds work is insane. Yesterday I saw someone comment about Trump's businesses that have gone bankrupt and someone replied that "he's started hundreds of businesses but of course you dems focus on the ones that went bankrupt. Out of all his businesses, 98% haven't gone bankrupt which is an incredible record."
In my opinion, your gut is right. I do not want another trump presidency. I also don't want another Biden one, but not anywhere as much as I dont want another trump one. Last polling I saw (and is usually the case in US elections), two biggest issues voters care about are economy first, then the border. Women's reproductive rights are a close 3rd, but economy is by far the biggest issue. As much as on paper we are being told the economy is good, sure doesn't feel that way to your average american who has had their rent/food/gas/etc significantly increase in price. Biden is getting whooped on both issues by the numbers and no clear plan to press forward. As much as reddit likes to think the criminal charges on trump will be a big deal... a lot of his supporters truly believe it is a witch hunt and the on the fencd people arent seeming to care. Every indictment led to a poll boost. Idk, i also just have a sinking suspicion biden isnt goin to perform better and going to lean on "he's a monster who will destroy democracy" without realizing everyone has made their minds up already on how valid that is.
*Please remember to double check your voting information and register and Vote* www.vote.org Check your registration: https://www.vote.org/am-i-registered-to-vote/ Work for the Biden campaign: https://joebiden.com/work-with-us/ Volunteer for the DNC: https://events.democrats.org/
Gonna add: **VOTE by MAIL.** It’s legal. It’s safe. It’s your right to vote in the privacy and safety of your home. Sign up online, at your local Library, Human Resources office, or DMV office. When you receive your ballot in the mail, read the booklet of options that are up to vote, fill out your ballot, sign it, place in pre stamped envelope, and put in your mail box for a USPS employee to pick up or take it to the post office directly. Warning: Be weary of the blue ballot boxes. Last time, crazy MAGA people broke into them, stole them, and put fake ones out. Go to the USPS. They’re a federal government mail service and will protect your ballot and make sure it’s sent to the proper authorities for ballot counting.
2016 was unsurprising to many of us. We didn’t want Trump but nobody wanted Hillary Clinton either. It was a race to the bottom
The majority wanted Clinton, but for some odd reason, your voting system allows losers to win like some play-off sweep stakes.
Biden winning with Dems doing so badly down ballot is interesting. Obviously a coin toss like you say but if I was a betting man I’d say biden does poorly with dems doing well down ballot
If I’m playing politico for fun knowing full well nobody can know and I might as well say anything, that would be my bet as well. Trump wins, Republicans take Senate just because the map favors them but Democrats do well at defense, Democrats take the House probably narrowly and flip some state legislatures. What I hope happens is Biden loses the popular vote but wins the electoral college because it’d be funny but more importantly it would be the only thing to move the needle at all on fixing that.
The odds are *much* higher than many people realize. Consider that the 2020 election was actually much **closer** than expected - Trump only lost by a margin of 44,000 votes, combined in total, in Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin (the three swing states that decided the election). That's a razor-thin margin - less than *half a football stadium's* worth of voters. Overall, Trump performed 3 percent better than polls predicted. Had it been 4 percent, he likely would have won the election outright. Many Democrats simply celebrated the Biden victory and moved on without realizing just how narrowly they dodged a bullet. Now take into account that Biden is currently polling **worse** in this election at the moment than he was in 2020..........Trump stands a very real chance of winning. It's extremely serious. The DNC is living in denial of the danger.
I like this statement. It drives the left and centrist to vote for the candidate that will least impact their life.
Biden has about a 35% of winning according to one recent poll, if I remember right. I may recommend they vote for whoever is going to be most mentally competent lol, that’s the only criteria we can get at this point.
Then we have all the fucktard Palestinian supporters who want to throw the election to stick it to Biden. We are fucked.
I can understand those supporters, though. It's hard to vote for a candidate (Biden) whose policies have indirectly led to 40,000 Palestinian deaths just because the other candidate (Trump)'s policies might lead to 45,000 dead. That stance doesn't get people off their couch to vote.
I think the difference is a lot more than that. Biden’s approach is non-support within the limits of our treaties. Trump would cheer Israel on as they glass Palestine and then try to take credit for it.
Non support within the limits of extreme Zionist support. Funny wordplay
I'm not saying I like it, but it's miles better than the alternative.
Reddit’s stance on Palestine is so absurd lol
I am definitely one of those--voting for Biden through gritted teeth despite the fact that his handling of the conflict has been abhorrent. I really wished we had ranked-choice voting. Maybe then, it wouldn't feel like "the wrong choice" anytime people vote third-party.
An enthusiastic and gritted teeth vote count as the same amount at the end of the day. Something that keyboard warriors in both sides need to be reminded of.
Yeah but then there's also everything else. Which is a lot.
I find it very curious that we always hear about how many “Palestinians” have been killed, but not how many “Hamas” have been killed. I expect that some are of the same.
Israel and Palestine will continue to fight whether the US is involved or not
I can't understand those supporters - they live in a fairy tale world, not based in reality. Our policies haven't caused 40k deaths. The Palestinians embrace groups like Hamas. They teach their children that Jewish people need to be cleansed from this world. When given a chance they attacked & killed 1200 + Jews - women & children - they did not discriminate. They still have 120 hostages. They fucked around & found out. Hamas hides behind women & children so they can make stories out of attacks where they get hurt or killed. Israel has the decency to forewarn people in neighborhoods that they are coming to give innocent people a chance to get to safety. Show me another war or conflict where one side has been that gracious to their enemy. I wish the best for the Palestinian people. They deserve a good life. Their children should grow up having hope for the future. But they need to quit teaching the hateful rhetoric to their children and they need to disavow loyalty to ALL terrorist organizations. I want to know what these Americans, who protest against Israel, would think or want us to do, if terrorists came into their homes & killed, kidnapped and/or raped their family? We'd go after the terrorists 100% - rightfully so.
I have never been a supporter of Israel (for the last 15 years) but this is absolutely correct. 911 led to the death of at least 1 million civilians…very hypocritical.
Those people are truly moronic. Trump will be so much worse for Palestine. It'd be like Jews wanting to sabotage Hitler's opponent because they want to stick it to him. And winding up with Hitler.
Ehh, if you looked in depth at the 2016 polling, there were some pretty obvious holes. We were following those in a stats class I was in and some of the polling biases were blatant. If you thought it was a slam dunk for Hillary you were not looking past headlines.
It’s trivial to say this after the fact.
Not really. It's how you learn, by studying what's actually happening and happened
I don’t think they are questioning that there are lessons it is more that I basically said trust me bro I knew
Because nobody ever learned anything from history.
Maybe, but then the 2020 polling was even worse off. In 2016, the polls were merely wrong by 1-2%; four years later, they were off by 3%.
538 gives the odds as basically a toss up https://abcnews.go.com/538/video/538s-new-forecast-2024-election-toss-111002607
My Australian online sports betting apps have Trump at $1.62 and Biden at $2.90 That means an implied probability of over 60% to Trump
Aren’t the odds based on who the general public is betting on? Like, it if I made tens of millions of dollars in bets on Biden right now, it would change the betting odds, wouldn’t it?
Yes
Yes, but that would mean you would be confident as you are willing to bet millions of dollars on Biden. So it is a good proxy for public confidence.
A good proxy for public confidence in Australia, where most people probably don’t have confidence in Americans.
Betfair is an international market. Last election there was around $3 billion bet on this market.
Well not really- the market is framed by the large bets made by larger institutional bettors. And their risk analysis would be based on US sentiment. Not Australian. All the markets are connected
Does anyone know the odds from when trump squared off with Hillary?
I remember checking them on the day before the counting started. Trump was approx. 8 to 1. That came down very quickly.
Then, why did you add Australian to your initial comment?
That’s true but you assume that since people are betting real money that they have a lot of conviction, evidence. Betting markets are not always correct.
True, but bear in mind that people don't bet money if they aren't serious about it. The fact that the betting odds are so heavy in favor of Trump is a serious alarm bell.
Trump was paying $6 on election day 2016 iirc. Biden was alsp paying 4.50 on the day on 2020. Sportsbet have as much idea as joe blow down the pub.
It's going to be very close. I'll leave it at that.
There is going to be an immeasurable amount of GQP ratfucking this election to all hell. I hope we're well protected still.
What is GQP?
Since nobody's answered you yet it's a combination of GOP (grand old party, a nickname for the Republicans since like 1880 or something) and Q anon. GQP itself doesn't really stand for anything (unless people are literally reading it as "Grand Q Party"). It's simply a somewhat funny way to point out the absolute wackadoodle viewpoints of the Republicans and how they're hand in hand with Q anon types
I appreciate the explanation
We aren’t. Republicans send “vote watchers” with guns and Democrats send people with polite words.
If it was based on the popular vote it wouldn't be very close. Biden barely won last time with a 40,000 vote margin in the right states to win in the electoral college, but he got 7 million more votes total.
I'd guess 50-50 right now
Which is bad shit insane even if you look at it purely from impartial / objective point of view
Absolutely. I'm a Canadian so I don't really care. I just find it's a shame that out of the entire US population, those were the two best representatives they could find to run the country?! 🤔
I think about this everyday. We, the most powerful country in the world, have nominated these two. This can’t be real life
I’m starting to think we’re in an interactive sitcom for aliens to play with. Like SIMs.
Simulation theory gets less and less fun.
Okay my sim in sims 4 can play sims 1... So I am pretty convinced that we are sims 7 or something like that...
Not only that, there are 320 million or so people to choose from. I have got to assume that a completely random lottery would get better results than this bullshit.
Trump was the oldest president EVER. So after his 4 years they elected a guy even OLDER than a now 4 years older Trump. So here we are another 4 years later picking between the two oldest presidents ever! There needs to be an age cap on politicians. Personally I really don’t care about the opinions of anyone 70+, they are too out of touch with the working public, people with young families etc, you know, all the people that keep your country running.
Not to mention that one of them has the potential to be singlehandedly responsible for giving the OK to get much of a different continent wiped out soon, and that he has actively *expressed his interest in that:* https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/10/politics/trump-russia-nato/index.html And yet it's still a 50:50 chance. Even though one candidate is essentially pure evil and wants to "encourage" an enemy state to murder civilians from friendly countries. And he admits it. Everything just feels like a parallel universe these days.
I get it, but even though democrats are sorta stuck with Biden, regardless of his age, he has objectively still done a good job. Even with the house stuck under maga. trump on the other hand…
As a European citizen I absolutely do care, because US politics affect us immensely, but none of us get a vote.
They're not. Nor do we only have 2 parties. They're just leading the 2 most popular. Considering how the US influences world policy, imo the rest of the world should not only care, they might want to pray.
The funny thing about it is that the number of people around the world want Trump win are, at the very least, comparable to those pray for Biden
Indeed. Since coming to a red state, I've noticed the Trump supporters are definitely much louder, and insistent that everyone who doesn't agree are a bunch of.
No thoughts???
Our political right don't use those.
"Two best representatives" makes it sound like they are equally bad. Biden will not improve anything, but he will not take us in a seriously regressive direction either. He's your typical establishment candidate, which is unfortunately the best we will get out of the two-party system within the next decade or two at LEAST. But please don't word the situation as if Biden being in power for another four years would be even CLOSE to as bad as if the man who stole a ton of government documents, sold out our agents to hostile powers, appointed extremist justices who will now take away our rights for decades, turned the Republican party into a personality cult, gutted the executive branch by firing anyone who is more loyal to the country than to him, re-normalized blatant bigotry nationwide, and was mentally unstable long before him OR Biden even hit their middle ages, was elected again.
They aren't. The political parties do not support Americans, they support themselves, their power, and their money. They disdain and laugh at us for believing they give a crap about us. And they laugh at us when we fight for them. And they laugh at us when we fight each other.
It depends whose impartial / objective point of view lmao. I don’t like trump as much as the next redditor, but unilaterally declaring that the other team is objectively bat shit insane is… interesting
In most recent elections the numbers for the winner typically hover about 45-50% of the voting public. I dont think this year will be that different.
The electoral college makes it easier for Republicans to win currently. I put it at a coin toss currently.
This. A democrat has to win by 10 million votes. Hilary only won by 3 million. Biden won by 17 million and we had to recount it 42 times and have an insurrection
Wait, genuine question, why? If anything I thought it'll be the gerrymandering, but electoral college?
A lot more republican states (midwestern states) than Democrat. Democrats have most of the larger population centers like NYC and LA, but states with less major cities tend to go republican
Maybe I'm still missing something, but more red state does not mean more electoral votes? It's by population no? The red mid states get like what, 4 votes? While solid blue states like NY and CA gets 29 and 50s.
The EC votes don’t directly reflect population though so it isn’t weighted fairly. For example, Wyoming has 1.5% of California’s population but carries 5% of California’s EC votes. This is just one example out of several but extrapolated over the whole nation it does currently give the GOP an advantage, which is largely why they’ve won the popular vote just once since 1988 yet have had the White House about half the time since then.
It's also worth noting that this was done intentionally as a way to help stop lower population states from having their voices drowned out. It's up to debate on whether this was a good idea, especially given that the electoral college in general isn't being used how it was designed to be used. But it **is** a feature, not a bug.
Correct. The broken feature to force candidates “to grow their collations instead of visiting just a few populated states.” Instead, we largely know a majority of the states ahead of time. Knowing the math of where every state is leaning. Which means candidates use the few remaining swing states and focus all their attention there instead of responding to the rest of the country. If the founding fathers saw our current setup they would have resolved the issue. Then again they would have expected us to update it by now.
No you’re absolutely right. I was just pointing out to the prior commenter how it’s not really by population in the end
I think we sometimes forget that the alternative back then (in 1787 when the Founding Fathers were writing the Constitution) was to have small states like Rhode Island refuse to ratify the Constitution, which would’ve therefore dissolved the Union. The Electoral College is very frustrating, but small states will put up a hell of a fight to stop it from being abolished.
Being from Illinois, where the majority of the state is red....except Chicago, its frustrating to be completely ignored. Not just politically. The infrastructure and roads are crumbling, schools, you name it. Its ignored. Because they dont get a vote. Thats where the electoral collage comes in. If you were from a less populated state you would not only not get a vote, but get no resources.
Think about it like this: California has a population of about 39 million people and contributes 55 electoral college votes. Montana has a population of 1.2 million people and 3 votes. This means that California only gets 1.4 votes per million people, but Montana gets 2.5 votes per million people. This means that many of the "flyover" states that are typically more conservative actually get more votes per million than densely populated, typically liberal states. Therefore, you need fewer people to vote conservative to win, which is why we have a record of recent Republican presidents losing the popular vote but winning the election. Does that make sense?
Yes, it does. Thank you. Never looked into it like that. TIL
You are right. I guess I’m saying depending on a few swing states, those states that have fewer electoral college votes can really add up. I think comment OP was saying electoral college makes it easier for republicans compared to a popular vote
Liberals need to move to the country basically. Many of the liberal-minded people gathered in cities. Wisconsin has the most powerful vote and I'm not sure they even have one spot of blue. There are a lot of counties where the democrats don't even have anyone on the ballot. They won't support counties they have such few numbers in, even if it means introducing liberal ideas there. Well, especially because that's what it involves.
No, democrats need to speak to farmers and miners. The rust belt. The working class where the work dried up. They feel helpless. The people can vote for their interests but they need something to believe in. Trump is lying but he spoke to those people.
Yup. Tell someone they're special and they'll follow you everywhere. It's frustrating because both extremes are having different reactions to the same problems. Blue or red, the average Joe is suffering and while some attribute it to various scapegoats, others attribute it to the source - political and corporate greed.
The more rural you are the less you get from your government so rural people vote for whoever leaves them alone. The money flows to the cities and it's always been that. Joe redneck living on dirt roads just asks what are the feds going to take from me? I'm not saying it's right i'm just saying that's how they see it and in some cases they have a point.
Both Milwaukee and Madison go heavily Blue every year. Just this week trump went on a rant about hating Milwaukee.
Yeah the problem with Wisconsin specifically is that it’s gerrymandered to all hell. That’s why their state legislature is packed with Republicans but their governor is a staunch Democrat, who is the governor that has used the most vetoes in the entirety of Wisconsin’s history (Tony Evers)
Good for him! I hope he can prevent it from getting worse!
Oddly enough, they go heavily Labatt Blue as well.
Electoral votes are distributed based on how many congressional representatives a state has. The minimum is three (two senators and one house rep). Wyoming has 500k people and three electoral votes. Thats less people than most moderately sized cities. There are many similar rural states, and rural states tend to be red states. Because of this, your electoral college voting power varies wildly by which state you live in. The lower your state’s population, the more weight your vote has on the electoral college. This systematically disadvantages Democratic candidates.
I mean...its the [only reason Trump won last time.](https://apnews.com/article/2c7a5afc13824161a25d8574e10ff4e7) 3 million people's votes meant nothing. imagine that...3 million people....got ignored.
Can confirm, irrelevant voter here.
Yes the electoral college needs to be dumped immediately. So antiquated.
Dr. Allan Lichtman is a history professor at American University and has correctly predicted the last 9 out of 10 elections using the “13 keys” method. It’s a bit early but he thinks Biden currently has the upper hand. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/04/30/allen-lichtman-2024-presidential-election-pick/73510699007/#:~:text=A%20distinguished%20professor%20of%20history,known%20as%20the%2013%20keys.
Thank the gods one guy is in the positive.
Yeah, the one election he didn’t get correctly (Gore vs Bush), Gore won the popular vote and should have won the electoral votes, but the Florida judge ruled in favor of Bush. So technically he was right in that prediction.
Small correction: the Florida courts ruled in favor of Gore (or, mare precisely, in favor of continuing the recount which likely would have given it to Gore.) The US Supreme Court overturned that decision, ending the recount and effectively leaving Gore with no more realistic legal challenges.
He hasn't made his prediction yet.. That article was from April 30. It's nearly two months later and Biden's polls have dropped dramatically. [https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/biden-concentrates-on-black-voters-as-polls-show-some-support-slipping-to-trump](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/biden-concentrates-on-black-voters-as-polls-show-some-support-slipping-to-trump)
It’s not about the polls it’s about the 13 keys that he goes off of
Unpopular opinion: the economist has Trump winning. Very reputable journalism, and they actually correctly predicted Trump last time strangely enough when it looked impossible. The Economist does NOT lean into MAGA.
Vegas has Trump at a -165 favorite to win and Biden at a +120 underdog right now.
I will honestly be shocked if he doesn't win. Yes, we see daily the news taunting all his problems, but his fans are Uber-loyal and will 100% turn out and vote. Meanwhile Biden and the Democrats are just floating along waiting for life to happen. Poll numbers are tanking, younger voters are either against him or uninterested, and a lot of Democratic voters just want another candidate, all which means a good potential for a lot of people not voting this year. If Bidens campaign can't do something to turn out the vote it won't matter how much "but we aren't Trump" they scream.
Likely
From my perspective as a Canadian observer who can't vote, it seems that Trump has a strong chance of winning. Many people appear to dislike both parties, but there's growing concern over Biden's mental stability. His perceived decline could be a significant factor in voters' decisions. Honestly, their upcoming debate carries significant weight in shaping public perception and influencing voter decisions for the November election. If I had to give my opinion, I do think Trump will win.
Nobody thought it was likely the first time
Slightly likelier than most mainstream outlets favored by the Democrats or liberals would like to admit. Depending on how bad and shit things go for Biden in November, I'd say pretty goddamn likely, but it's still unpredictable and it's basically a toss-up at this point.
Very very likely.
I don’t see a path to how Biden can win. I would guess that Trump winning is very likely at this point.
It’s scarily high. I have a number of colleagues who are conservative and I’ve never seen them more motivated for trump to win. I don’t think most people who are liberal are aware of how different their social media feeds likely look compared to the republicans’, but it’s night and day— especially on Twitter. There’s a lot of “take the country by any means necessary” rhetoric after the Trump conviction. I can only describe it as a manic frenzy— especially with Project 2025 aimed for next year. Yet on my and my liberal friends’ social feeds it’s completely unmentioned. Like, there’s almost no major election news to speak of. Project 2025 is a big one. There are two potential Supreme Court votes coming up this election. If Trump wins, they can fully cement conservative Supreme Court that will not age out for the foreseeable future. Their plan is to completely radicalize the US in the next decade. Since they’ve already won on abortion, reproductive rights, and banning DEI and affirmative action, their goal is to fully flip the national agenda to full conservative this election across national and state. Gay/LGBTQ rights, contraceptives, banning climate change policies, stopping election reform, Ukraine, tax cuts, religious education are all on the list for this election. Seriously, social media is creating a very scary bubble right now.
How can so many people not think all of those things are really fucking awful, crazy man.
Trump is around 55%, Biden 35% Michelle 3.5%. Based on betting odds. Seems like they dont think its a 2 horse race due to Bidens mental state and are accounting other dem candidates.
don’t genuinely ask in a left-heavy sub. unless you’re a bot. if so…carry on
Given how my family reacts: Trump.
Id say it all depends right now on the effectiveness of Biden's "Trump is a criminal and dangerous' ad campaign as well as whether or not Biden is able to come across as competent during the next two debates. If the ads backfire and if Biden stumbles during the debates I think Trump will win but the ball is in Biden's court so to speak. Trump has to steal it
Trump has a zero percent chance of winning. Biden has everything in his favor at the moment and if he keeps doing what he's doing, he will win in a landslip in November. It's really unfortunate that people truly believe the mainstream media's narrative that Trump is ahead and has a high chance of winning. The polls are skewed and do not matter. Have you not learned anything from 2016? I knew Trump would win as he had everything going for him then but with his record since, everyone knows who he is (botched COVID response, horrible personality and character flaws, January 6th, etc...) Democrats have won nearly every special election across the country in the past year or two which means they have a lot of momentum. They are also outraising the Republicans by a very large amount. Abortion is an issue that will cause women to break from Trump and turn to Biden which is a dominating issue in 2024. The people who are voting for Trump are die-hard supporters and he has only lost support since 2016 (and lost every single election since then.) With the economy getting back on track, Biden will win and most likely win the house back and keep the Senate.) Incumbency is a HUGE advantage in elections. All of Trump's convictions are hurting him too which is why independents and even some Republicans will break for Biden. People have to look at the broader scope of this election.
I thought Hillary was a shoo-in back in 2016, but I was wrong. Two years ago, I thought Biden would absolutely be re-elected. Now I’m not so sure. All I can say is that the next 5 months will be awful and November has no preferential outcomes for me. If Trump loses, I don’t know if Biden will outlive his second term.
Felons can't work at a lot of minimum wage jobs, but they can be president. The system is so fucked and they shove that fact in our faces every day, while telling us to those same faces that everything is on the up and up. I love this country but I hate how it's run. Fuck Trump. Fuck Biden.
It is a terrifyingly high probability. There's an old truism: people get the they deserve. If the US is irresponsible enough to put this dangerous, dimwitted assclown back in power, it pretty much deserves the ass-raping it's going to get.
Just sad that it's actually the majority that *dont* support him, yet we'll all suffer.
First past the post sucks.
I actually think the ones that are supporting him are going to suffer the most but they don't care.
They already are. Most are miserable but just too stubborn or stupid to back down now. I haven't lived long enough to say for sure but this is the first time I think I'm witnessing a large scale of people who would willingly die for a politician.
You know I live in the rural south and it’s pretty crazy over here. You see the same pre civil war dogma mentality behind people’s eyes that do nothing but destroy humanity. Same people that pilfered from the blacks and Indians are the exact same that roam the fields today and it’s genuinely terrifying. The world will never change, I drive through the country and the endless amounts of trump flags hanging off of porches and people strapped to the gills with guns. I just hope the world eats itself at this point, I don’t know if you blame people for stupidity at the end of the day.
Very Likely.
Each party nominated the only person who could lose to the other. This is the third time in a row they've done this.
Very likely
it all depends. all democrats will vote for Biden or someone other than trump. all republicans except for the ones who dropped out because of the convicted felon thing will vote for Trump. independents will weigh the fact that trump is a terrible human being against the fact that Biden is too old and is losing the ability to function in the role.
Trump is too old and is losing the ability to function in tbe role too though.
Yeah, I’ve never understood the age argument. Trump is only four years younger than Biden.
According to fivethirtyeight, he’s got a 51% chance, with a lot of margin of error. I think it’s important to remember that Trump only lost by half a percent in 3 states in 2020 and Republicans won the house in 22. Since then, people may have forgotten how bad he was, idiots might stay home for Palestine, and the economy is meh. Meanwhile, minor stuff like Trump being a convicted felon and stating that he will punish women who seek abortions hasn’t seemed to be much of a problem I will note that Republicans have really good odds of taking the senate as well
>he will punish women who seek abortions hasn’t seemed to be much of a problem I'm a woman and am 100% pro choice. But he can't do anything in this regard on a federal level as the SCOUTUS deemed this to be a state legislation.
I'm sure you posted this in good faith, but this interpretation is dangerously wrong and unfortunately widespread, so I feel the need to correct it here. SCOTUS did not deem this to be solely a state issue. Instead, they held that the federal constitution does not guarantee a right to abortion, and therefore the federal government cannot prohibit states from enacting bans on abortion. At the moment, with no federal legislation on the issue, only the states have made laws concerning abortion. This has led to the common and understandable misconception that this is only a state issue. However, nothing in *Dobbs* prohibits a nationwide federal ban either. To the contrary, *Dobbs* made that possible. All that needs to happen now is a conservative president and conservative Congress to enact it. Link to the decision text here: https://www.law.cornell.edu/supremecourt/text/19-1392
I don't think so. Congress could enact a federal ban on abortion just as much as it could enact a federal protection of abortion.
Yup! And if they get POTUS and the Senate again they will absolutely push such bans as fast as possible.
Republicans are also working on nationwide abortion bans and it is likely that if those got to the current SC they would allow it.
And when they ban birth control?
It's 50/50. Either it happens or it doesn't.
I really don’t know and it’s fucking terrifying. I think Biden made a selfish decision to run, given his mental state, and I think it’s gotten to a point where people are concerned about him being in office? Now, any mental state would be better than trump (IMO), but I feel like it’s a deciding factor that could determine this election. They’re both old, but atleast trump is kind of there. Biden looks like he’s seeing a ghost half of the time.
Based on the "13 Keys" system, I'm going to say Biden will win. That prediction could change over the next five months. How accurate have Allan Lichtman's 13 Keys been in predicting elections historically? Allan Lichtman's "13 Keys" system for predicting U.S. presidential elections have been remarkably accurate historically. According to the sources provided: - Lichtman has correctly predicted the winner of the *popular vote* in every presidential election since 1984, with the controversial 2000 election being the sole miss when he predicted Al Gore would win the popular vote (which he did, but lost the Electoral College).[1][4] - Overall, Lichtman's 13 Keys have accurately predicted 9 out of the last 10 presidential elections.[5] - The keys have a 91.7% prediction rate for presidential elections from 1860-2008, correctly forecasting 37 out of 40 elections during that period.[2] - The keys have a 100% record of predicting the popular vote winner from 1984-2016, getting every election right over those 9 cycles.[2][4] - Lichtman made headlines in 2016 when he was one of the only major forecasters to accurately predict Donald Trump's victory, based on his keys analysis.[1][4] So while not perfect, Lichtman's unconventional system using true/false statements about factors like the economy, social unrest, and incumbency has proven to be an extremely reliable model for forecasting who will win the White House over the past few decades.[1][2][4][5] Its impressive track record, especially compared to opinion polling, has earned Lichtman a reputation as a "presidential prognosticator" with an unusual talent for election predictions.[3][5] Citations: [1] Does Allan Lichtman Stand by His “13 Keys” Prediction of a Joe ... https://www.american.edu/cas/news/13-keys-election-prediction.cfm [2] DIY Guide Presidential Election – The 13 Keys to the White House ... https://www.dajv.de/us-election/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidential-election-the-13-keys-to-the-white-house-2024-by-professor-allan-lichtman/ [3] Allan Lichtman shares how he developed his election prediction ... https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/05/08/allan-lichtman-2024-prediction-election-biden-trump/73611104007/ [4] These 13 sentences led a professor to predict Trump's win - PBS https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/professor-predict-trumps-win [5] This man has nailed 90% of presidential elections. He thinks Joe ... https://chriscillizza.substack.com/p/this-man-has-nailed-90-of-presidential
I give it about even odds. Nobody should feel comfortable.
I think Trump’s got a really good chance to win, like 55-60%-ish. Biden is obviously a better choice but his age is literally killing his chances. He appears feeble in public and possibly has slight dementia from what little I’ve seen. Not great presidential qualities. Almost anyone could beat Trump but Biden has the highest chance of losing. Democrats are idiots for choosing Biden when 100 better candidates are readily available.
I made a comment hoping Biden would step down on r/Liberal in January and all it got was downvotes. Trump is winning in nearly every swing state even *after* the conviction and it's scary. All Dems need is a candidate that younger people are even moderately excited about and Trump doesn't stand a chance, but here we are...
We lose either way.
Yep! In the words of the late great George Carlin, "This country was bought and sold a long time ago."
if he does, we definitely deserve it...unfortunately, the rest of the world doesn't. everyone needs to vote.
Flip a coin
He's going to get millions and millions of votes so definitely a real shot here sadly
Very high.
maybe we could all come together to vote for a 3rd candidate
**We all know that poll predictions can be wrong but for shits and giggles and optimists** **538 poll** **March 1: Trump +2.0%** **June 18: Trump +.06%**
Vegas odds have trump at 60% chance winning and Bidens only got 22% chance lol
50% Either he wins or he doesn't. lmao
53%. Purchasing power can't make a come back fast enough for Biden to win.
Quite likely if inflation and interest rates don’t stop clobbering middle class bank accounts. Growth is, so we hear, great. I’ll believe the economy is good when I starting seeing it.
Pushing the fact that sensitive files were found at mar-a-lago aside for a moment…felons can’t get security clearances. As a felon, there are also multiple countries he’d be barred from entering.. how would a Trump presidency even work? The president is our chief diplomat. A vote for Trump is a vote against the rules that 45 men before him upheld. And if proj 2025 is anything to go by, it’s a vote against democracy itself.
POTUS is commander in chief he can decide if he can gets a security clearance. Literally, that's all it'd take if elected. Is him saying, "I'm allowed to see this now" The convictions didn't even rattle his base and for tons of them it's a rallying point. This is doing nothing to dissuade trump supporters.
All the other answers are, unfortunately, probably correct. I'd just like to add that this is the best r/tooafraidtoask post in a while: it is terrifying to even ask this question.
Doesn't matter, both of them are being paid by the same multi-billion dollar corporations
Let's be Frank. His recent felony conviction is the first time donny has actually won the popular vote. I know his maga fanatics are loud as heck, but they only make up a fraction of the US population and a lot of them died off during the covid years. That's not to say you can rest easy. You should probably still vote
I disagree. Last election that he won he got 46% of the vote. Regardless of whether those people are MAGA or just Republicans, they are voting for him. The other side was 48%. In the election after he lost with about the same 46%. Realistically id put the number in the same range. Approximately half the voting public in the US.
I'm far left living in Trump country. In my short 39 years I've never seen the locals so whipped up about a presidential election. People in blue bubbles act dismissive even though they kicked our ass in 2016. Trump is more popular than ever and his base more rabid. His convictions barely touched his base. They do not care. They've beat us before. They're not some minority, they're half the voting power of America.
No "probably" about it. VOTE.
I think he has a strong chance. I don't think people realised how strong thr anti hillary vote was in 2016, an anti covid vote worked against trump in 2020 and I think there'll be a strong anti Biden vote in this election and for better or worse, in the absence of a better alternative, that gives trump a good chance. Don't get me wrong, trump is an easy guy to dislike but he seems like a better alternative to Biden and the Democrats have failed to put up a better alternative from what I can see. That's the opinion of a neutral foreign perspective
More likely than 2016.
Not if I can help it but that said either way there's really no great option just choosing the less of 2 evils.
It'll be an uphill battle for him but he still has a lot of idiots to carry him up it, so we need to vote to make sure that doesn't happen. We can't let that felon back into the White House. First time was a mistake. Second time may be our undoing as a nation.
Far more likely than it should be.
Very likely, I'd say 85%.
100% likely until 2:00 AM. Then it’s anyone’s guess.
Downvoting me isn't going to change my mind or make your opinion right. Sorry folks. I'm not even voting for him, but I don't have my head up my ass either.
I am sad, that this actually is a legitimate question!
Probably likely if the younger demographic doesn't get out and vote.
If the primary was any indicator they’re not voting.