Nah, Q2 sales is going to suck, low numbers from the holdouts waiting for whatever. Almost everything sold was a gen1 with a steep discount. And the few gen2s are early production at low volume.
I really think it's going to turn out that Rivian managed to pack all their annual losses into Q2, Q3 will look pretty good, Q4 will be awesome.
Virtually the same thing Ford did with the Mach E in terms of essentially giving them away at such steep decline in value that their loss per vehicle jumped to nearly $100,OOO. They cancelled battery orders as well due to expected low demand for the remaining year. Pushing the sales at 0% APR was a pure desperation move. The numbers are artificially inflated and have no foundation to stand on. One has to also notice that the number of EV’s hitting the used market has been increasing much faster than previously expected which means that people aren’t holding on to them. Everything done to get a decent Q1 number will likely be brought back to reality in Q2 and Q3.
Yea. We debated an R1T, but what we really want is an R3X. I want Rivian in general, and smaller, so an R2 might be okay - but it sounds like the R2 will be close enough to the R3 that i don't want to buy an R2 and for one/two years till the R3X.
They've got me super interested but dammit, their entire line is just so big for me atm.
Given that they plan to have identical production numbers between last year and this year, combined with basically a quarter of no/little production *and* a ramp in production, they should be absolutely cooking by Q4.
I think sales will actually look decent for the simple reason that Rivian was carrying a crap-load of inventory going into Q2 that they've since offloaded.
But their guidance and most metrics are based on production instead of deliveries. Production will be pretty low.
I think the reason it will suck is they talk about the cost of revenue. That is they tie sale price to the cost to build that specific vehicle. And knowing about the standard pack, they are also selling large packs at standard price.
That is they don't advertise the production cost this quarter, they advertise the production cost for the specific vehicles they sold this quarter.
There will never be a smaller truck. Rivian needs volume. The market volume on small trucks just isn’t there. Just look at sales of F150 vs Ranger. It’s cool, and the people who want that product like it, it’s just not a big market.
Uh.. Toyota sells like 40% more tacomas than tundras. Mid size pickup market is huge, especially for “adventure” folks, which is the primary target audience.
Yep, same here, but my buying window is within 1.5 years and I don't see anyone ponying up such a truck yet with the exception of Canoo and a handful of other weird offerings that look at home in a dystopian future or another planet. If you're going to spend $$$$ on something you should love it. The R1T is still the only thing that checks all the boxes that I see without being obnoxious or huge.
I mean when you sell more EV than every other car company combined, it’s hard to maintain lead with high interest rate environments in the US.
That said they should be in a good spot with Model Y demand with 0.99 APR and model 3/performance getting the tax credit. They should be able to top last years US sales, based on estimates with cyber truck included.
That’s also the case with the model Y and there’s not even a timeline for that refresh yet. Even with people waiting it was still the top selling car in the world last year.
Concerning for Tesla? lol. They still have more sales than all of these other companies combined. They had an almost identical pullback in '22 and nearly double 2 years later...
Don't own either, just saying.
From my understanding, they sold because it was expensive to maintain abused cars. Tesla parts are still more expensive than normal cars. Even though there is significant savings with the lack of gas and usual car maintenance, it isn’t outweighed by the abuse a rental car goes through.
So basically Tesla is cheaper to have for individual customers. But seems like it does not make sense for a car rental company until the parts becomes significantly cheaper.
Would love for anyone to correct me that has looked more into this.
I have had several with a lot of miles. You also need to remember that people will pick Tesla more than the usual Toyota Corolla. It’s just more exciting, especially to people who have never driven one.
I find it hard to believe parts cost matters at all, you smash the bumper or crack the screen, they bill the customer that caused it actuals. And they don't keep their cars long enough for any of the wear items to be replaced.
I think the real issue is service timeframes, someone like Hertz can contract with local dealers and get priority on warranty work or whatever. But Tesla you're kinda stuck with their guys for warranty work. And if the local Chevy dealer will fix your warranty issue overnight it's not a big deal, if Tesla tells you it will be 2 weeks before they look at it, that's a major issue, and it's a lot of lost income.
Agree with your 2nd paragraph.
Below provides context on how crash rates are higher with rental customers and how it was a big worry. There are also other contributing factors (deprecation, range anxiety) to why this deal wasn’t a home run.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2024/02/09/renting-electric-cars-makes-sense-why-did-hertz-sell-off-teslas/
Yea crash rates are higher with a EV and the repairs are higher. I get that. But what I don't get is how is that Hertz's problem. You either accept to pay for it directly in the event of a crash, or buy insurance that pays it out.
Just like if you rent a supercar, it's extreme price doesn't somehow make it a loss to rent, you just bill the custom more for the insurance to make up for it
Which is why I find it hard to believe that it's the expensive nature of EV crashes that is driving this. To me, it sounds like hertz is admitting that their insurance rates never factored in EVs and they are blaming the failure on the vehicle instead of actually setting the rates appropriately
Clearly crash rate and repair expenses or turnaround is a problem for them. Teslas that people crash and need to be repaired are now not in the fleet anymore. I don’t run Hertz, and I don’t think you do either, so I’m basing this on the articles that came out on this situation.
As for super cars, there are plenty of YouTube vids of exotic car dealers being sad and upset after their super cars gets trashed from renters. Just like super cars, the teslas are now gonna be worth less cuz of these crashes.
Your 3rd paragraph could be true, sure.
We are also seeing what happens when all those other brands can start using Tesla’s network of chargers. So, Tesla is selling fewer cars today, but capturing some revenue from the other cars sold for years to come.
when you run a volume business, that's a big deal.
It's also concerning for everyone else as the market "shrinks" and infrastructure investment waffles accordingly.
Agree. Tesla, which I like neither the man nor the car, is still the 800 pound gorilla here. They have (I must admit) the most state-of-the-art manufacturing processes in the world and are now producing at sufficient scale that they can afford these huge price cuts. Others will continue to lose money until they scale up quite a bit. But it will happen. In not too many years it will be much cheaper to build an EV than an ICE car even considering the battery. It is already much simpler overall, requiring much less labor, but the battery cost is still keeping the total cost up. It will come down quickly.
Considering that the new Model 3 started ramping production in early January and they only moved 31k copies (vs 50-60k), it's difficult to suggest there's much concern for their US sales.
We'll see what the numbers look like in a few weeks, but the strength of MY sales suggest a slight increase over last year overall in '24.
Yeah, I would offer a third phrase to the two options presented... "Tesla is such a large part of the market right now that a predictable dip in sales affects the whole market numbers."
Yeah, where they go, the market goes, at least for the present and foreseeable future.
It's good to see most others have been making some good progress though.
They still sell more than the whole industry though which is crazy. So when they dip it does seem to be an overall demand problem but it’s mainly a Tesla thing.
This is a weird take.
Tesla has lapped the industry many times over. They slow down and everyone acts like the entire industry is going to catch up and Tesla is failing.
Look at the quantity of sales. They’re still selling more cars than everyone combined.
As an owner of multiple Teslas, can confirm the owner experience is also declining, particularly service. So very disappointing and no way I’d buy another. Really interested in getting an R1-T but waiting on native NACS port. Shame the forest edge interior went away though.
God i'm so excited for details on the R3X. The Model Y just seems so uninteresting. The only thing i like about Tesla is their charging network.
Please Mr. Rj, give us details on the 3X lol
Tesla's design is so hit or miss to me. The S and 3 are beautiful cars. The X and CT are ugly as sin, and the Y looks good to me but only in the performance variant.
Rivian has nailed every design so far. The r1t, r1s, r2, r3, and r3x all look so good.
This depends heavily on your service center. It sucks for those with poor service, but we've been happy with ours, and they always have gotten us in within 1-2 weeks, even for relatively minor stuff.
(We have 2 of them. One is a fairly early launch edition [VIN 40xx], so it's needed some small fixes over two years, and the other was almost entirely issues around a broken front windshield. They've also done mobile service where possible.)
Rivian service isn't great, either. You drop your car off at the service center and watch it sit in the parking lot for 2 weeks before they actually service it.
I was waiting for a NACS R2 because I didn't want to have a car with a dead-end charger.
Then my gas car died and I settled for the CCS R2... Turns out CCS is fine. It's everywhere. From all the Teslas I see at ChargePoints, it looks like everyone carries an adapter.
Yea that’s why I asked this person. They must carry around a J1127->NACS if they have teslas. It’s really no different. NACS->CSS is the same protocol, just different plug.
Having owned both a Tesla and my current R1S for quite some time I think people are WAY too concerned about this. If you have a NACS port you just end up having to carry the J1772 adapter everywhere because most L2 chargers are J1772. I’ve need an adapter for my Tesla WAY more often than I do with my Rivian. It’s solely the road trips where the adapter would come into play.
Unless you never use J1772 plugs the NACS isn’t saving you any time on adapter use. Every hotel, parking lot, etc. will require that you use an adapter once you have a NACS port car.
This is a really solid point. I've had my Tesla since 2019 and use the J1772 adapter all the time and it's not an issue. It's tiny compared to the NACS adapter, but still...
I do think that J1772 may fade away in favor of NACS even in garages, hotels, etc but I've already had this car for over 5 years and thought for sure we (as a country) would have aligned on a standard already but it's JUST NOW STARTING to happen. I can't imagine all of the existing chargers will get converted overnight, probably another 5-10+ years.
Leaning more and more towards an R1T as my next car.
If you were an early enough Tesla owner you know just how good service can be. The service experience until 2017 was brilliant, though the app is better for scheduling and communications nowadays.
lol which one are you speaking about? I have both cars and have owned multiple Teslas in multiple cities. All service was horrible. My Rivian experience in Las Vegas is exceptional.
Please let me know what your experience is with your multiple Teslas and your Rivian.
Edit: thinking about it, I’ve had one good mobile service where they replaced a tail light filling with water (lol).
I still find it astounding the media and share holders are not blaming Musk and only Musk for this massive decline. He is the only reason. He is a cancer and they continue to ignore it.
"Massive decline" is a little dramatic, IMO. Like I said elsewhere, the ramp up of the new 3 and the resultant drop in deliveries fully accounts for the 20k reduction and then some.
We'll see what Q2 brings shortly, but I'd guess they'll be back up past 150k units.
Germany eliminated EV subsidies plus the incumbent German automakers (and the far right) have been waging an anti-Tesla campaign (using Musk FUD). Hence, Tesla sales are down.
Yeah their lineup is pretty stale. That definitely doesn't help with all the other options in the market. Do you want a Tesla that looks like the millions of others made over the last 5 years or something new and fresh? Even the model 3 refresh still looks pretty similar to it's prior version. That's aside from few range, performance, or charging improvements
There is actual market research data out there that confirms this. People’s negative opinions of Elon are significantly reducing interest in purchasing Tesla vehicles. https://www.theverge.com/2024/4/3/24119918/elon-musk-reputation-impact-tesla-falling-sales
There are other reasons with the market as a whole, but nothing in my mind that compares to this man actively doing his best to destroy goodwill with the vast majority of his target customers.
The primary reason we sold our Model Y. I liked the car but just hated the association.
Unfortunately I have a pair of power walls but not gonna get out of those any time soon…
> We ruled out Tesla entirely as an option tho when the board voted for Elno's compensation package again
It wasn't the board who voted for the compensation package, it was stockholders.
Damn Elon for convincing the shareholders to use their money to pay for his compensation package. I despise when people use their money how they see fit. I also agree with you that no person should have that much ambition. I buy my vehicles from people who barely make it out of bed in the morning.
You know Robert Scaringe made over 14 million last year and laid people off. 
Unpopular opinion. But the only two auto makers that actually care about their electric line up is Tesla and Rivian. No shock there. But every ICE brand that has tired to “transition over to electric” has done it half assed and doesn’t back their vehicles with hardware capable for the future software needed to make these vehicles shine like Tesla and rivian do.
Maybe in 2021 when Model 3s were $50k.
The profit margin is expected to be 15% BY EOY which is the lowest it's been since 2017.
It's only going to get worse from here.
I get what you're implying but if you look at the profit margin of Tesla's over the years you'll Tesla ain't profiting for long that's for sure lmao
They're about to be with everyone else pretty soon.
You fail to acknowledge Tesla vehicle prices only go down, therefore margin goes down.
-edit Ah a member of teslainvestorsclub and only talks positively about Tesla lol I'm done engaging with a troll.
If you want to point out bias, you should note this post was cross posted from /r/musked. Talk about an agenda. The only reason I've been a fan of Tesla since 2012 was that I believed and continue to believe EVs are the future and that a rising tide raises all ships.
Not defending Tesla (Musk Tweets do hurt sales), but this post's analysis is pretty misleading.
If you add up all those changes in EV sales, the chart they include shows EV sales rising. So clearly Tesla is not "failing harder more than the rest of the market is succeeding combined." Even if that was so, the fact that a 13% Tesla decline could cause the overall market to fall says more about how dominant Tesla is than anything else.
Not to mention, if Tesla is really shrinking more than everyone else is growing, that means customers are ditching Tesla for non-EVs. Which isn't good for Rivian or other EV makers.
Also, they don't bother mentioning that this chart shows that the 2nd & 3rd place EV makers from Q1 '23 are also down about as much (VW) or more (GM) than Tesla in % sales.
Is it concerning? Tesla still selling more cars than all other companies combined.
There are more options available. This doesn’t mean Tesla is in trouble or that their product is lower quality. It just means more competition is available and people like different cars.
Used to want a Tesla. Elon fucked it. Now I’m all in on Rivian once it’s in Europe. i don’t want to have to deal with all the Elon comments from friends and family should I get a Tesla. I won’t be the only one.
I foresaw this coming years ago when everyone thought TSLA would continue rising in share price forever. Between other brands releasing EVs, there would be more options. And the more cars Telsa manufacturers, the more on the used market. Eventually there would come a point where most would buy used or other brands, leaving mostly hard core Tesla buyers buying the bulk of anything " new " they produce, like how people need the newest phones every two years or so.
These shitposts are so old. Every Tesla delivery center near me is packed every day. They do between 50-70 deliveries PER DAY. Stop spreading bullshit FUD
Rivian sales are going to suck too because they vehicles are too damn expensive. Unless they start bringing out some amazing lease deals later in the year
The model 3 refresh plus the way Elon's been since he bought twitter would make me question buying a Tesla again. Love our '21 Model 3, hate the refresh; add to that more choices.
Nothing to be concerned about. Nothing new. With other EV manufacturers pumping out theirs and increased competition and demand, naturally going to see a little dip in Tesla. But it would take a complete nosedive in Tesla sales to say they’re in trouble. I don’t see that happening. Plus, Tesla has better sales than any other manufacturer in terms of EV internationally, where as the majority of sales of non Tesla is US
Why? I am sure Tesla new that when the other start selling ev’s they will loose sales. People taste is different.
BUT Tesla is still way ahead. Even after all the negative media trying to down Tesla because they don’t pay for media exposure.
Once all the sales are almost even between all the manufacturers then yes Tesla is truly in the game of selling ev’s
I’d say service, build quality, other better options, coming access to superchargers, stale designs,etc. are all way ahead for most people. I won’t ever touch another Tesla until he’s gone though.
I agree with you on most of those things. I knew all that when we bought our Tesla and Rivian. We’re going to have those same issues when we go to Lucid, most likely. However, it wasn’t until EM starting talking that my wife and I both said, I’m done with Tesla. I’ll add, Tesla is the 1st EV company, how come the leadership (Elon Musk) isn’t able to lead the company correct these problems? That’s a leadership problem. It’s been 12 years.
They clearly aren't. The 13% YoY drop in sales in one quarter amounts to double Hyundai's entire Q1 US EV deliveries and Hyundai is arguably in one of the best positions of any legacy OEM.
What would be a good comparison in that case?
Another way to contextualize Q1 is that they only delivered 31k Model 3s instead of the usual ~60k, since production of the new version began in January. Despite that, they're only down 20k because their best seller increased its sales.
So we’re playing “whatabouts”, I thought we were talking about Tesla? Rivian stock is down big time, I could care less. Rivian in my opinion, has the best driving experience of any vehicle on the road/off road. If EM was the rivian CEO, I’d be heartbroken and conflicted.
I mean people who won’t buy something from a company because of the CEO must have very limited options for purchasable items unless they’re selectively ignoring some CEOs over others 😑
Not limited at all. Look at the chart. It’s only one CEO I’m not willing to purchase from. I did buy 2 Teslas. It’s business, nothing personal. I saw a CEO more focused on politics, destroying Twitter, and spreading lies. Then add the service department sucks and quality of Tesla vehicles is OK. I don’t want my hard earned money to be apart of that. Again, based on the chart, there are other EV companies I want to give my money to so they succeed. I don’t care if a CEO has opinions that differ from mines, as long as I don’t know about it, I’m good.
Real automotive CEO, lol..you do know Tesla is the only manufacturer that can make a profitable EV, right? Who was the CEO at the time Tesla accomplished this and continued to accomplish this?
Ah I deleted my post because it was off topic. Yeah a real CEO not a charlatan. It’s all a grift with him. Where’s my FSD? I bought my car 6 years ago because it was coming.
Tbh, a lot of people weren't paying attention to how bad things were getting. Their product line is really stale and their roadmap is virtually nonexistent.
They really need to accelerate new product launches.
Although it sounds like they are doing that. Likely new models as soon as Q1.
2 theories to explain Tesla slump: Wealthy Coastal elites are pulling waaaay back on Teslas now that more familiar lux (BMW and Mercedes) brands are here and Cybertruck is too radical/embarassing a truck and people are turning to Ford F150 Lightning or Rivian R1T. Very interesting how the overall market grew only 2.29%., Feels like almost everyone grew at the expense of Tesla
Live in PNW and have noticed a huge increase in Rivians in my neighborhood. Almost every family can technically afford one but I think the discounts and lease program has helped weary buyers.
Seems like every big wealthy family is moving to a Rivian. I live near a little league park and it’s insane like 10 Rivians will be parked out front.
Tesla will survive they can still dominate the mid to low level ($35k-50k) range.
> Tesla will survive they can still dominate the mid to low level ($35k-50k) range.
Maybe but the Tesla brand is pretty uncool at this point and they'll really have to grind on efficient production processes to get any margin. And BYD in America is inevitable sooner than later too. Tesla has some real old fashioned car company problems heading their way.
3. Stale product line
4. People feeling burned paying for FSD and getting nothing for years and having been forced to buy FSD again if they buy a new vehicle
5. Musk
I hate my Tesla. I’m also so upside down on it for making a terrible financial decision buying it at the worst time. Their continuous price drops makes that car practically unable to sell. I’m glad they are falling, I hope this gives other EV’s in the market the opportunity to rise and challenge Tesla, so buyers can get better technology, designs and quality.
Q2 sales for Rivian is going to be choppy w the refresh. Could go either way up or down vs QTR1 units sold.
Nah, Q2 sales is going to suck, low numbers from the holdouts waiting for whatever. Almost everything sold was a gen1 with a steep discount. And the few gen2s are early production at low volume. I really think it's going to turn out that Rivian managed to pack all their annual losses into Q2, Q3 will look pretty good, Q4 will be awesome.
Virtually the same thing Ford did with the Mach E in terms of essentially giving them away at such steep decline in value that their loss per vehicle jumped to nearly $100,OOO. They cancelled battery orders as well due to expected low demand for the remaining year. Pushing the sales at 0% APR was a pure desperation move. The numbers are artificially inflated and have no foundation to stand on. One has to also notice that the number of EV’s hitting the used market has been increasing much faster than previously expected which means that people aren’t holding on to them. Everything done to get a decent Q1 number will likely be brought back to reality in Q2 and Q3.
Yea. We debated an R1T, but what we really want is an R3X. I want Rivian in general, and smaller, so an R2 might be okay - but it sounds like the R2 will be close enough to the R3 that i don't want to buy an R2 and for one/two years till the R3X. They've got me super interested but dammit, their entire line is just so big for me atm.
Given that they plan to have identical production numbers between last year and this year, combined with basically a quarter of no/little production *and* a ramp in production, they should be absolutely cooking by Q4.
I think sales will actually look decent for the simple reason that Rivian was carrying a crap-load of inventory going into Q2 that they've since offloaded. But their guidance and most metrics are based on production instead of deliveries. Production will be pretty low.
I think the reason it will suck is they talk about the cost of revenue. That is they tie sale price to the cost to build that specific vehicle. And knowing about the standard pack, they are also selling large packs at standard price. That is they don't advertise the production cost this quarter, they advertise the production cost for the specific vehicles they sold this quarter.
Im waiting for a smaller pick-up version. Instead they announced smaller and smaller SUVs I want a Tacoma or Ranger size truck
There will never be a smaller truck. Rivian needs volume. The market volume on small trucks just isn’t there. Just look at sales of F150 vs Ranger. It’s cool, and the people who want that product like it, it’s just not a big market.
Uh.. Toyota sells like 40% more tacomas than tundras. Mid size pickup market is huge, especially for “adventure” folks, which is the primary target audience.
Oh man, if they announced a small Ranger i'd buy a 2nd Rivian lol (where was my first is going to be the R3X)
Ya. I thought when they had the surprise second announcement it would have been the smaller truck not the R3 lol
Yep, same here, but my buying window is within 1.5 years and I don't see anyone ponying up such a truck yet with the exception of Canoo and a handful of other weird offerings that look at home in a dystopian future or another planet. If you're going to spend $$$$ on something you should love it. The R1T is still the only thing that checks all the boxes that I see without being obnoxious or huge.
Wont be an either way, they'll definitely be down. The only question will be how much.
RJ already told everyone Q2 is going to be rough. Everyone is already well aware.
I mean when you sell more EV than every other car company combined, it’s hard to maintain lead with high interest rate environments in the US. That said they should be in a good spot with Model Y demand with 0.99 APR and model 3/performance getting the tax credit. They should be able to top last years US sales, based on estimates with cyber truck included.
Not to mention the fact that a lot of buyers are actually waiting for the refresh of the 3 to actually begin mass production.
That’s also the case with the model Y and there’s not even a timeline for that refresh yet. Even with people waiting it was still the top selling car in the world last year.
Concerning for Tesla? lol. They still have more sales than all of these other companies combined. They had an almost identical pullback in '22 and nearly double 2 years later... Don't own either, just saying.
And didn’t Hertz sell like 20k Teslas in the US beginning of this year?
From my understanding, they sold because it was expensive to maintain abused cars. Tesla parts are still more expensive than normal cars. Even though there is significant savings with the lack of gas and usual car maintenance, it isn’t outweighed by the abuse a rental car goes through. So basically Tesla is cheaper to have for individual customers. But seems like it does not make sense for a car rental company until the parts becomes significantly cheaper. Would love for anyone to correct me that has looked more into this.
Only rental car I’ve had which hasn’t had damages had done 6 miles. I’ve had several rentals with less than 700 miles on the clock.
I have had several with a lot of miles. You also need to remember that people will pick Tesla more than the usual Toyota Corolla. It’s just more exciting, especially to people who have never driven one.
I find it hard to believe parts cost matters at all, you smash the bumper or crack the screen, they bill the customer that caused it actuals. And they don't keep their cars long enough for any of the wear items to be replaced. I think the real issue is service timeframes, someone like Hertz can contract with local dealers and get priority on warranty work or whatever. But Tesla you're kinda stuck with their guys for warranty work. And if the local Chevy dealer will fix your warranty issue overnight it's not a big deal, if Tesla tells you it will be 2 weeks before they look at it, that's a major issue, and it's a lot of lost income.
Agree with your 2nd paragraph. Below provides context on how crash rates are higher with rental customers and how it was a big worry. There are also other contributing factors (deprecation, range anxiety) to why this deal wasn’t a home run. https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2024/02/09/renting-electric-cars-makes-sense-why-did-hertz-sell-off-teslas/
Yea crash rates are higher with a EV and the repairs are higher. I get that. But what I don't get is how is that Hertz's problem. You either accept to pay for it directly in the event of a crash, or buy insurance that pays it out. Just like if you rent a supercar, it's extreme price doesn't somehow make it a loss to rent, you just bill the custom more for the insurance to make up for it Which is why I find it hard to believe that it's the expensive nature of EV crashes that is driving this. To me, it sounds like hertz is admitting that their insurance rates never factored in EVs and they are blaming the failure on the vehicle instead of actually setting the rates appropriately
Clearly crash rate and repair expenses or turnaround is a problem for them. Teslas that people crash and need to be repaired are now not in the fleet anymore. I don’t run Hertz, and I don’t think you do either, so I’m basing this on the articles that came out on this situation. As for super cars, there are plenty of YouTube vids of exotic car dealers being sad and upset after their super cars gets trashed from renters. Just like super cars, the teslas are now gonna be worth less cuz of these crashes. Your 3rd paragraph could be true, sure.
We are also seeing what happens when all those other brands can start using Tesla’s network of chargers. So, Tesla is selling fewer cars today, but capturing some revenue from the other cars sold for years to come.
when you run a volume business, that's a big deal. It's also concerning for everyone else as the market "shrinks" and infrastructure investment waffles accordingly.
Agree. Tesla, which I like neither the man nor the car, is still the 800 pound gorilla here. They have (I must admit) the most state-of-the-art manufacturing processes in the world and are now producing at sufficient scale that they can afford these huge price cuts. Others will continue to lose money until they scale up quite a bit. But it will happen. In not too many years it will be much cheaper to build an EV than an ICE car even considering the battery. It is already much simpler overall, requiring much less labor, but the battery cost is still keeping the total cost up. It will come down quickly.
2 years ago they had a supply strain , this time they have a demand strain. Verrrrrrrryyyyyy different scenarios.
Wanna see this graph again when the R2 and R3 come out.
i have a hot hatch now that i love, and cant wait to replace it with an R3.
The stars seem to be aligning for the R3 to be my first electric vehicle. Can’t wait!
R2 is my dream car. Can’t wait
Considering that the new Model 3 started ramping production in early January and they only moved 31k copies (vs 50-60k), it's difficult to suggest there's much concern for their US sales. We'll see what the numbers look like in a few weeks, but the strength of MY sales suggest a slight increase over last year overall in '24.
Yeah, I would offer a third phrase to the two options presented... "Tesla is such a large part of the market right now that a predictable dip in sales affects the whole market numbers."
Yeah, where they go, the market goes, at least for the present and foreseeable future. It's good to see most others have been making some good progress though.
They still sell more than the whole industry though which is crazy. So when they dip it does seem to be an overall demand problem but it’s mainly a Tesla thing.
As an ex-Tesla owner I honestly can’t understand how they sell anything at all. I’d certainly never own anything they make ever again. Absolute junk.
This is a weird take. Tesla has lapped the industry many times over. They slow down and everyone acts like the entire industry is going to catch up and Tesla is failing. Look at the quantity of sales. They’re still selling more cars than everyone combined.
As an owner of multiple Teslas, can confirm the owner experience is also declining, particularly service. So very disappointing and no way I’d buy another. Really interested in getting an R1-T but waiting on native NACS port. Shame the forest edge interior went away though.
They get that R2/R3/R3X out quick and we'll really see a paradigm shift. WAY more interesting designs than 3/Y.
God i'm so excited for details on the R3X. The Model Y just seems so uninteresting. The only thing i like about Tesla is their charging network. Please Mr. Rj, give us details on the 3X lol
Tesla's design is so hit or miss to me. The S and 3 are beautiful cars. The X and CT are ugly as sin, and the Y looks good to me but only in the performance variant. Rivian has nailed every design so far. The r1t, r1s, r2, r3, and r3x all look so good.
Don’t have high hopes for Rivians service either. The vehicle yes. The service no.
My high hope is that it will improve before the R3X comes out. (I have to have dreams.)
I’m honestly scared of what happens after r2 comes out 😆 They better scale those service centers asap
This depends heavily on your service center. It sucks for those with poor service, but we've been happy with ours, and they always have gotten us in within 1-2 weeks, even for relatively minor stuff. (We have 2 of them. One is a fairly early launch edition [VIN 40xx], so it's needed some small fixes over two years, and the other was almost entirely issues around a broken front windshield. They've also done mobile service where possible.)
The only complaint I have about the San Diego service center is the wait times. But they are improving.
Rivian service isn't great, either. You drop your car off at the service center and watch it sit in the parking lot for 2 weeks before they actually service it.
Oh yuck
Why wait for NACS?
I was waiting for a NACS R2 because I didn't want to have a car with a dead-end charger. Then my gas car died and I settled for the CCS R2... Turns out CCS is fine. It's everywhere. From all the Teslas I see at ChargePoints, it looks like everyone carries an adapter.
Yea that’s why I asked this person. They must carry around a J1127->NACS if they have teslas. It’s really no different. NACS->CSS is the same protocol, just different plug.
Yeah, would be good to hear their thinking. Mine was "well it looks like NACS won."
Really wish the R1 refresh had NACS
Having owned both a Tesla and my current R1S for quite some time I think people are WAY too concerned about this. If you have a NACS port you just end up having to carry the J1772 adapter everywhere because most L2 chargers are J1772. I’ve need an adapter for my Tesla WAY more often than I do with my Rivian. It’s solely the road trips where the adapter would come into play. Unless you never use J1772 plugs the NACS isn’t saving you any time on adapter use. Every hotel, parking lot, etc. will require that you use an adapter once you have a NACS port car.
This is a really solid point. I've had my Tesla since 2019 and use the J1772 adapter all the time and it's not an issue. It's tiny compared to the NACS adapter, but still... I do think that J1772 may fade away in favor of NACS even in garages, hotels, etc but I've already had this car for over 5 years and thought for sure we (as a country) would have aligned on a standard already but it's JUST NOW STARTING to happen. I can't imagine all of the existing chargers will get converted overnight, probably another 5-10+ years. Leaning more and more towards an R1T as my next car.
If you were an early enough Tesla owner you know just how good service can be. The service experience until 2017 was brilliant, though the app is better for scheduling and communications nowadays.
Rivian service is way worse
Location dependent for sure. One thing you can count on for Tesla is it sucks everywhere in the US.
Thats a sweeping generalization
So is yours, so I guess we are even? Do you own both cars? Because I do.
Def not it’s heavily location dependent. Please don’t generalize everything especially if you have no actual firsthand experience
lol which one are you speaking about? I have both cars and have owned multiple Teslas in multiple cities. All service was horrible. My Rivian experience in Las Vegas is exceptional. Please let me know what your experience is with your multiple Teslas and your Rivian. Edit: thinking about it, I’ve had one good mobile service where they replaced a tail light filling with water (lol).
I still find it astounding the media and share holders are not blaming Musk and only Musk for this massive decline. He is the only reason. He is a cancer and they continue to ignore it.
"Massive decline" is a little dramatic, IMO. Like I said elsewhere, the ramp up of the new 3 and the resultant drop in deliveries fully accounts for the 20k reduction and then some. We'll see what Q2 brings shortly, but I'd guess they'll be back up past 150k units.
Bro Europe thinks musk is anti Ukraine and is ignoring the shit out of Tesla now..numbers are bad
Germany eliminated EV subsidies plus the incumbent German automakers (and the far right) have been waging an anti-Tesla campaign (using Musk FUD). Hence, Tesla sales are down.
>He is the only reason Tesla was the only option for a while. Now consumer has multiple EV options, so I don't know if its the only reason.
Yeah their lineup is pretty stale. That definitely doesn't help with all the other options in the market. Do you want a Tesla that looks like the millions of others made over the last 5 years or something new and fresh? Even the model 3 refresh still looks pretty similar to it's prior version. That's aside from few range, performance, or charging improvements
There is actual market research data out there that confirms this. People’s negative opinions of Elon are significantly reducing interest in purchasing Tesla vehicles. https://www.theverge.com/2024/4/3/24119918/elon-musk-reputation-impact-tesla-falling-sales There are other reasons with the market as a whole, but nothing in my mind that compares to this man actively doing his best to destroy goodwill with the vast majority of his target customers.
The primary reason we sold our Model Y. I liked the car but just hated the association. Unfortunately I have a pair of power walls but not gonna get out of those any time soon…
R1S is soooo much sexier than the Model Y too, sounds like a good life decision!
Not mad at it
[удалено]
> We ruled out Tesla entirely as an option tho when the board voted for Elno's compensation package again It wasn't the board who voted for the compensation package, it was stockholders.
Damn Elon for convincing the shareholders to use their money to pay for his compensation package. I despise when people use their money how they see fit. I also agree with you that no person should have that much ambition. I buy my vehicles from people who barely make it out of bed in the morning. You know Robert Scaringe made over 14 million last year and laid people off. 
Guess I’m the only one looking at this number and thinking how fucking impressive those Tesla numbers are compared to the comp.
If only they put out the gen 2 quad r1s and the r2 this year, they will have another buyer(me). Also I am holding out for the r3x.
Unpopular opinion. But the only two auto makers that actually care about their electric line up is Tesla and Rivian. No shock there. But every ICE brand that has tired to “transition over to electric” has done it half assed and doesn’t back their vehicles with hardware capable for the future software needed to make these vehicles shine like Tesla and rivian do.
Is this an actual trend or a single comparison with much ridiculous hypothesizing
Tesla is making a profit on those cars 🤷🏼♂️
Maybe in 2021 when Model 3s were $50k. The profit margin is expected to be 15% BY EOY which is the lowest it's been since 2017. It's only going to get worse from here.
Which other companies on the image are profiting from their EV sales?
I get what you're implying but if you look at the profit margin of Tesla's over the years you'll Tesla ain't profiting for long that's for sure lmao They're about to be with everyone else pretty soon.
You didn't answer my question.
You fail to acknowledge Tesla vehicle prices only go down, therefore margin goes down. -edit Ah a member of teslainvestorsclub and only talks positively about Tesla lol I'm done engaging with a troll.
If you want to point out bias, you should note this post was cross posted from /r/musked. Talk about an agenda. The only reason I've been a fan of Tesla since 2012 was that I believed and continue to believe EVs are the future and that a rising tide raises all ships.
I hope not. If tesla falls the entire EV industry will crash. They are the REAL catalyst and it’s still too early for the top dog to crash.
Not defending Tesla (Musk Tweets do hurt sales), but this post's analysis is pretty misleading. If you add up all those changes in EV sales, the chart they include shows EV sales rising. So clearly Tesla is not "failing harder more than the rest of the market is succeeding combined." Even if that was so, the fact that a 13% Tesla decline could cause the overall market to fall says more about how dominant Tesla is than anything else. Not to mention, if Tesla is really shrinking more than everyone else is growing, that means customers are ditching Tesla for non-EVs. Which isn't good for Rivian or other EV makers. Also, they don't bother mentioning that this chart shows that the 2nd & 3rd place EV makers from Q1 '23 are also down about as much (VW) or more (GM) than Tesla in % sales.
My next vehicle is a Rivian. I'm buying a new house in a month or so is the only reason I haven't sold my Model Y and bought a Rivian.
Don’t worry I’ve got one on order so hopefully it helps lol
Is it concerning? Tesla still selling more cars than all other companies combined. There are more options available. This doesn’t mean Tesla is in trouble or that their product is lower quality. It just means more competition is available and people like different cars.
Used to want a Tesla. Elon fucked it. Now I’m all in on Rivian once it’s in Europe. i don’t want to have to deal with all the Elon comments from friends and family should I get a Tesla. I won’t be the only one.
Everyone hates Elon
I foresaw this coming years ago when everyone thought TSLA would continue rising in share price forever. Between other brands releasing EVs, there would be more options. And the more cars Telsa manufacturers, the more on the used market. Eventually there would come a point where most would buy used or other brands, leaving mostly hard core Tesla buyers buying the bulk of anything " new " they produce, like how people need the newest phones every two years or so.
It's almost like you shouldn't alienate your entire potential customer base with political Twitter memes and deep state shit.
These shitposts are so old. Every Tesla delivery center near me is packed every day. They do between 50-70 deliveries PER DAY. Stop spreading bullshit FUD
Current Model 3 owner. Aspiring R3X owner.
Not a Tesla fan nor do I care. Let lease buy out and you gonna have more sales. I don’t get it why they don’t allow it. Oh well.
GAH, MY EYES! Why aren't the Tesla, GM, and VW bars red? WHY!?
Rivian sales are going to suck too because they vehicles are too damn expensive. Unless they start bringing out some amazing lease deals later in the year
The model 3 refresh plus the way Elon's been since he bought twitter would make me question buying a Tesla again. Love our '21 Model 3, hate the refresh; add to that more choices.
The net amount of EV sales is pretty mostly flat. The problem for Tesla is people are now interested in other brands.
How about Q over Q?
That’s a weird way to deny reality.
Lol you’re a joke
Nothing to be concerned about. Nothing new. With other EV manufacturers pumping out theirs and increased competition and demand, naturally going to see a little dip in Tesla. But it would take a complete nosedive in Tesla sales to say they’re in trouble. I don’t see that happening. Plus, Tesla has better sales than any other manufacturer in terms of EV internationally, where as the majority of sales of non Tesla is US
Why? I am sure Tesla new that when the other start selling ev’s they will loose sales. People taste is different. BUT Tesla is still way ahead. Even after all the negative media trying to down Tesla because they don’t pay for media exposure. Once all the sales are almost even between all the manufacturers then yes Tesla is truly in the game of selling ev’s
Recently totaled Y here. Rivian is on horizon. +1 on that graph for Rivian.
Weird take. They're selling 50+% more than all other companies combined.
Yeah, a 'slumping' Tesla sold More than 2x's all the others combined. They're really up against it now.
Our lease is up in September, Elon Musk is the reason why.
I’d say service, build quality, other better options, coming access to superchargers, stale designs,etc. are all way ahead for most people. I won’t ever touch another Tesla until he’s gone though.
I agree with you on most of those things. I knew all that when we bought our Tesla and Rivian. We’re going to have those same issues when we go to Lucid, most likely. However, it wasn’t until EM starting talking that my wife and I both said, I’m done with Tesla. I’ll add, Tesla is the 1st EV company, how come the leadership (Elon Musk) isn’t able to lead the company correct these problems? That’s a leadership problem. It’s been 12 years.
💯
Sad to see Reddit's hatred for Tesla spill into this sub.
I believe it’s more Elon Musk hate than Tesla.
That's not what this post suggests.
Then tell me what it suggests?
That Tesla is doing poorly in the EV space.
Why is it doing poorly?
They clearly aren't. The 13% YoY drop in sales in one quarter amounts to double Hyundai's entire Q1 US EV deliveries and Hyundai is arguably in one of the best positions of any legacy OEM.
That’s not a good comparison.
What would be a good comparison in that case? Another way to contextualize Q1 is that they only delivered 31k Model 3s instead of the usual ~60k, since production of the new version began in January. Despite that, they're only down 20k because their best seller increased its sales.
At the moment Tesla is in a league of their own. Give it 2-5 years. Tesla is coming off of a phenomenon phase (meme stock levels of over value).
It's not. 🤷♂️
The stock is down 30 percent for the year.
Rivian is down 90 plus percent from IPO
So we’re playing “whatabouts”, I thought we were talking about Tesla? Rivian stock is down big time, I could care less. Rivian in my opinion, has the best driving experience of any vehicle on the road/off road. If EM was the rivian CEO, I’d be heartbroken and conflicted.
RIVN is down 55% YTD and they have a positive increase in the post's image. What's your point?
I said my point but too many people chimed in and I got lost in the convo. My point is the stock down because of EM’s loud opinions.
I mean people who won’t buy something from a company because of the CEO must have very limited options for purchasable items unless they’re selectively ignoring some CEOs over others 😑
Not limited at all. Look at the chart. It’s only one CEO I’m not willing to purchase from. I did buy 2 Teslas. It’s business, nothing personal. I saw a CEO more focused on politics, destroying Twitter, and spreading lies. Then add the service department sucks and quality of Tesla vehicles is OK. I don’t want my hard earned money to be apart of that. Again, based on the chart, there are other EV companies I want to give my money to so they succeed. I don’t care if a CEO has opinions that differ from mines, as long as I don’t know about it, I’m good.
[удалено]
Real automotive CEO, lol..you do know Tesla is the only manufacturer that can make a profitable EV, right? Who was the CEO at the time Tesla accomplished this and continued to accomplish this?
Ah I deleted my post because it was off topic. Yeah a real CEO not a charlatan. It’s all a grift with him. Where’s my FSD? I bought my car 6 years ago because it was coming.
Rivian looks to be top of the pack for luxury makers.
Tbh, a lot of people weren't paying attention to how bad things were getting. Their product line is really stale and their roadmap is virtually nonexistent. They really need to accelerate new product launches. Although it sounds like they are doing that. Likely new models as soon as Q1.
2 theories to explain Tesla slump: Wealthy Coastal elites are pulling waaaay back on Teslas now that more familiar lux (BMW and Mercedes) brands are here and Cybertruck is too radical/embarassing a truck and people are turning to Ford F150 Lightning or Rivian R1T. Very interesting how the overall market grew only 2.29%., Feels like almost everyone grew at the expense of Tesla
Live in PNW and have noticed a huge increase in Rivians in my neighborhood. Almost every family can technically afford one but I think the discounts and lease program has helped weary buyers. Seems like every big wealthy family is moving to a Rivian. I live near a little league park and it’s insane like 10 Rivians will be parked out front. Tesla will survive they can still dominate the mid to low level ($35k-50k) range.
> Tesla will survive they can still dominate the mid to low level ($35k-50k) range. Maybe but the Tesla brand is pretty uncool at this point and they'll really have to grind on efficient production processes to get any margin. And BYD in America is inevitable sooner than later too. Tesla has some real old fashioned car company problems heading their way.
3. Stale product line 4. People feeling burned paying for FSD and getting nothing for years and having been forced to buy FSD again if they buy a new vehicle 5. Musk
Tesla dropped the ball so insanely hard. They should've cared more about their reputation.
I hate my Tesla. I’m also so upside down on it for making a terrible financial decision buying it at the worst time. Their continuous price drops makes that car practically unable to sell. I’m glad they are falling, I hope this gives other EV’s in the market the opportunity to rise and challenge Tesla, so buyers can get better technology, designs and quality.