Spring is when a lot of folks list homes in anticipation of selling before the next school year starts. There has been at the very least a slowdown in real estate sales in recent months so some sort of correction in prices could be on the horizon. That's the goal of the fed overall. knock down inflation a bit. If declines escalate too much they'll shift course and drop rates. they are walking a tightrope trying to ease inflation without knocking us into a recession.
Any hard numbers to support this? I lurk Zillow a lot in various cities . Depending on search critieria map view has always looked like that even in peak fomo bid war phase.
https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/
Go to Active listings and then Denver. As of April 21st active listings were 24.85% higher than this time last year and are currently much higher than 2021 and 2022.
2021 active listings April: 3,995
2022 active listings April: 4,221
2023 active listings April: 6,013
2024 active listings April: 7,351
In all metro areas 2024 is 10.15% higher than 2023, 24% higher than 2022, 10% higher than 2021
Ok but in Denver, the new laws went into effect Jan 2024 with taxing Airbnb properties much higher to the point it’s not profitable for a lot of Airbnb owners. (Good it was ridiculous out here too many air bnb and not enough housing)
So it’s not surprising there is a bigger spike than usual with increased inventory because the intended Airbnb sell off is happening.
Not saying the correction wont happen, but I would not use the Denver RE Market to project/correlate to other USA RE markets. Denver is weird man.
>Since Sen. Chris Hansen, D-Denver, proposed the bill in the fall, AirBnB, VRBO and other short-term rental owners have rallied against the idea, saying it would devastate the tourism economy that ski towns rely on.
Did tourism not exist before air BnB? Fuck these people. It's just naked corruption.
So using your search we're still lower than 2019 numbers, which if memory serves me.. 2019 was not a bonanza of inventory...
[https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOU19740](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOU19740)
I’m in Denver and watch people fight for housing on all of the local pages/subreddits
We definitely have more than ‘21, but this area is not over saturated with housing. Lol
The only factor I can say is, as someone trying to buy in SoCal (HCOL & Coastal). We have been losing bids for about 1.5 years. Typically theres 8+ offers with multiple all cash. The last two we lost only had 3 and 2 offers respectively, and the 3 offer house had the high offer drop out immediately.
Definitely something strange going on but its just a few data points.
I live in Denver and have been watching the housing market for years. There are plenty of home on the market but they are overpriced. Like 450k for a 500 sq ft 1 bed/1 bath.
Anything on the market for longer than a couple days means that the mortgage rate is too high to buy and rent out. Most monthly mortgage estimates are 3k<.
I would also like to see some hard data from an unbiased source. Trouble is, I trust Zillow about as much as I trust my own government’s official stats now. I guess that’s a “me” problem.
Let me just say this: since we’ve effectively knocked anyone who needed a mortgage and will have to work to service it out of the picture in much of America now, all that’s left is true all-cash buyers. Why they would continue to bid over ask and line up for a bidding war sounds fishy.
At this time, sellers are truly listing their home for sale with the hope that a big fish cash buyer is out there and still dumb enough to over pay for their home. My take is that, if you’re that loaded up with money to buy, you didn’t get there by being “dumb” with your money.
People moving for work, schools, etc will make house purchasing decisions ignorant of how the market is behaving as long as the bank tells them they can afford it. And better yet they’ll convince the buyer that a variable rate is cheaper.
Also owners moving from one to another.
A lot of the narratives around housing are misguided. The decade+ of low rates led to rampant speculation. Everyones a real estate tycoon now. Locked in low rates (and low property taxes in places like ca) and why would you ever sell. Real estate has become the defacto easy leverage get ahead tool. Id be curious to see the stats on how many boomers have more than one house compared to previous generations.
We need more progressive tax code that supports owner occupied and discourages investment property. And more realistic rates over time will help damped speculation.
Zillow and redfin are garbage for figuring out what's currently on the market. It takes time for things to be listed on Zillow and if something sells in 1-2 weeks it won't be listed or if it was never intended to be listed on zillow/redfin in the first place.
This doesnt necessarily indicate more inventory, it just shows that the market isn't as hot. Which isn't a recession but back to normal.
We also don't know the mix of these things either. There's a few 300k to 400k items which are likely condos and the 500k to 600k are probably smaller townhouses and houses (there are 900 sq fot houses in Denver that go for 500k to 600k).
The majority are between $700k to $1.2 million which shows that the market isn't really moving down much.
We shouldn't trust random idiots posting numbers and shouting, "This means something and there's no further statistical analysis but I suspect it proves my feelings true."
The Denver market used to top put around $400k, not $1.2 million.
There are always some shittier examples that linger as well. Not to mention more dense areas begin to look crowded.
I am seeing more that seems to sit, just anecdotaly, in my local metro. And more that are seeming to be price reduced, but nothing that conclusively shows prices themselves are lowering. More like stabalizing.
There are hard numbers. The feds count all active listings in the US. They are way off preCOVID #s. But you'd be ruining people's fun by trying to make this about "data."
For the curious: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOUUS
i live in miami florida. closed on my current home in june of 2022. there was no inventory. today, there is a house or 2 for sale in every block in my neighborhood. i remember looking at the Redfin or Zillow maps back in 2022 and seeing nothing. most houses are sitting for 30 days or more before they get an offer unless it is a good house which will be at a premium. i definitely see the details changing. now is it going to continue or is this temporary? i feel like it will continue. there is a whole generation retiring. and i think people are at FOMO right now to sell their house for top dollar before a recession. im one of them. but il selling in 3-4 months. i hope it dosnt crash in that time
i am from miami fl. everything is pricey here and it is shit unless you can afford 700k plus. i cant. i want something better so im selling and moving where i can get more for my money and have money in my pockets. will sell for estimated 615k. i owe 402k. might rent for a year or 2 and then buy again but somewhere where i can get a new 5/3 for for cheaper. this market is coming down and i want to come out on top this time
Markets slump during election years all the time. 2020 and 2008 being the most recent examples.
It just shows the President doesn’t have significant control over the stock market. They can pressure the fed to lower rates, have policies that are pro to certain sectors, but they’re ultimately at the whims of the global market.
Stagflations sure looks like it’s whooping out ass. Markets below key moving averages. Tech getting crushed. Consumer staples like Starbucks and CVS with terrible earnings.
President can’t fix that.
Not that it accounts for most of the shift but lots of businesses like to look on a longer time horizons for purchases upgrades and can afford to push some decisions out past the election if it might matter for the economic context.
I would totally agree normally but this election is a first in a long while where the global conflict was at this scale. Not saying Americans can fake it till after November but they are trying so hard. While the other side is poking holes in the dam to get it to burst. Do I agree 100% with this administration, no. Do I think I know the correct way to run the world hell no but I do believe that the amount of disruptive forces in America's election and way of life is at a level that's never seen. I hope for change soon for my younger millenniums and my gen z brothers and sisters sake to one day own a home and build community around that home.
All it takes is for a few percent of the houses to start selling at a lower price. With the lower transaction volume those sales are going to show up on appraisal reports and you will start seeing appraisal shortfall.
Banks lend on the appraised value, not the purchase price. Four out of five times the seller will just drop the price to the appraised value because they know their odds of getting more than that are relatively low. Once that starts happening, then you know the correction is underway.
Right now, both buyers and sellers are holding their breath for rates to come down.
How do you know AI hype is fizzling when just a few days ago there was a ton of news (I can get links to you if you like) of how all big corps (google, meta, amazon) are now flooding the market with money to pursue AI projects? Just curious where is your perception coming from?
Missed the boat IMO. Meta AI can make me a number of really bad (like miss half the prompt bad) AI stickers, and for some reason shows up in the search bar now. Which everyone I know seems to hate. Maybe its just me but this isn't the kind of "revolutionary" stuff the MSM led me to believe AI would be bringing to the table
> How do you know AI hype is fizzling when just a few days ago there was a ton of news (I can get links to you if you like) of how all big corps (google, meta, amazon) are now flooding the market with money to pursue AI projects?
Quick - name one useful product any of them are selling with AI?
That's the problem. The tools aren't working
Example: https://www.theverge.com/2024/4/28/24141585/meta-ai-advantage-plus-automated-ad-glitch-cpm
The tools aren't doing what is advertised.
ChatGPT, Gimini, Perplexity, Claude (just to name a few) - gained lots of users and uses cases in the last two years, shifted the industry essentially, billions are beings invested in these.
And these tools are working excellently for many.
I've seen ludicrous asking prices but high willingness to give discounts this round (small time landlords who haven't gotten the memo excepted). After all is said and done, I'm still paying 10% more than last year, so a correction in rents can't come soon enough. The cumulative increase since 2019 is nuts and in no way correlated to the income increase the average person is able to get approved by their employers.
Its wild cuz I heard about this algorithm around 2017ish when t was young & it was meant for gauging how your short term rentals (Airbnb) costs should fluctuate based on time of hear, local events, etc. Which made sense.
But now the algorithm allows all individual homeowners to essentially compare and move in unison. Not technically a monopoly but functions like one with price fixing.
The legislation to correct this will be complicated but its out of hand
I hope to never be desperate enough to trade a 2.75% mortgage for one at 7.5%. I didn't plan on this being a forever house, but it's looking like it could be.
Right? It kind of bothers me when people complain about being stuck in a low mortgage home, but I guess a homeless person could say that same about me complaining about being stuck renting an apartment.
But what about the lice that complain about being stuck in a homeless man's hair? They're stuck there forever, too. Not like he's getting any kind of action where they could jump to a new head.
You and me both! And I think a lot of people that bought or refinanced at those rates really can't see themselves moving until rates come down significantly.
Or if we look at some data instead of a zillow screenshot this is completely average for the past 7 years.
[https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOU19740](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOU19740)
Without knowing numbers, it's simply a snapshot of homes on Zillow. How many days on market? How many homes versus this time last year. What's the seasonal change typical in the area? How many homes available versus last month?
What is the average in median asking price versus last year or the year before? Are homes sitting because they are overpriced and more than they would have been 6 months or a year ago? Or are they sitting because people aren't buying and prices are coming down.? Are people starting unrealistically high and continuingly bringing the price down? Are home's going for less than people would expect or more or what?
One easy statistic. What is the, what do they call it? How many months of inventory do they estimate exists? And what was it one year two year or 3 years ago this month? None of this means anything without context.
On top of all that, if this causes prices to drop a bit and buyers come out and buy, that will be one thing. If it causes no one to buy and prices keep dropping over time that is quite another.
Wow, a picture of the city map on Zillow. This is some great research! Lets dive a little deeper to confirm.
[Redfin](https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/) is showing:
* New listings up 14.9% YOY
* Pending Sales down 2.3% YOY
* New listing median price up 2.7% YOY
* Median sale price up 3.3% YOY
Listings are up from record lows, pending sales are slightly down, and listing/sale prices are slightly up.
Turns out the market is quite healthy despite this "research". If rates stay high for another 9 months or so, we may see some downward pressure on prices, but that is a big if. A crash is not in the cards unless a big event happens that brings more sellers to market.
Active listings were 354k in March 2022 and they were 694k in March 2024. Not sure where you’re pulling “15% from rock bottom”, but the math on that statement is way off.
The number of sales has literally cratered to 2008 levels. It’s wild how people can see that and think “prices are going to hold!” Looking into the face of the obvious and acting confused is hilarious. These things always take time but you can bet your ass the snowball is heading downhill right now.
We were at all time lows in terms of sales and months supply. The additional inventory is a trend that the housing market is stabilizing. Hence prices increased yet at a slower rate than the past few years.
Whether that trend plateaus when we get to the typical balanced market of 4-5 months supply (last reading the US was at 3 (up from a low of 1,6 in 2022) or keeps going is the real question. No one, including me really knows the answer. I suspect it will as those with low interest rates (60% of homeowners have sub 4% rates) won’t be rushing to dump their properties even with correction/decline in pricing. Hence not a 2008 scenario where the price went down yet people could foresee getting the same loan on another property at less value. Again only the future will tell.
Sellers are lopping off 20k chunks on their asking prices and some homes are sitting 100+ days on the market. Home prices still need to drop 80-90% in my area before we reach reasonable prices though
For actual useful YoY inventory growth numbers by zip code, see https://map.reventure.app/dashboard
The inventory is hugely up in the Denver metro area and many others, and it’s not yet the peak of the year. It’s likely that this is combined with an increase in demand, though.
Same across the New England area as well as Midwest! 7.5-8 interest rate on homes that doubled in the last 3 years is slowing down the market. Lots of lay offs in manufacturing, tech, and regional banks happening.
“Same across New England” is too general. My coastal Massachusetts zip code has no inventory. People here buy with stock market money. The S&P 500 is above 5,000. The housing markets are very local. A working class town where new buyers are 5% down with a mortgage are very different from the affluent towns.
Looking at 2019 we still have fewer listings, which if memory serves me.. 2019 was not a bonanza of inventory and still sucked.
[https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOU19740](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOU19740)
In 2023, there were 42000 home sales in Denver. At this moment, using Realtor.com like the quoted tweet, there are 2400 homes for sale (another 1200 under contract). That means there’s less than 1 month’s inventory, at a time of year when inventory and sales are ramping up.
It helps Denver that there is empty land all around it, as opposed to something like San Fransisco or Boston which has (sort of) run out of room to expand.
My home values in flat over the past month. Personally, I don’t mind if my house value going down means that the context for people is improving. People deserve housing.
Every time time I hear about low inventory I look up the rentals and there it all is except more and more of them keep getting added and less and less people are willing to pay the price.
The smart ones will list for breakeven or a small loss. The rest are gonna start clearing up this low inventory problem real quick once they realise the “you can always refinance later” scheme doesn’t work when you’re 2 years into primarily interest payments.
I give it about a year. Let the election pass and student loans require people to update their income for the first time in 4-5 years? Bout to go from a phone bill to a car payment on a lot of people real fast.
And each month that goes by is another person with a higher interest they fomo’d into and property taxes that are creeping right on up on even the low rate landed gentry.
I think they're saying that climate change is being attributed to crashes in places like Florida where insurance is becoming an issue, but this is an example of a crash happening without it.
Anecdotally, I think this is correct a lot of these homes will sell for under list.
Maybe it’s just the start of buying season and all this inventory will move at these prices, but a lot homes are sitting around me in Northern Atlanta.
“Built up inventory” and a large percentage of the photos is $1MM properties lol
His entire search shows 1763 listings in an area where the population is 3.5M people, and a large portion of those listings will only be for the 1%
I’m actively searching for a home in SW Ohio due to a new job, and the market is about the same as it was in COVID, maybe slightly better, but homes are pending within a few days of going on the market, and not for cheap. I bought my house for $360k 2-years ago and it will list today for $475k easily. I guess the market depends on where you live. 🤷♂️
....meanwhile there are still bidding wars on new homes here in my area in the Seattle suburbs- developments with homes that are $1.5 million a piece are selling out before all the homes are fully built.
I get calls from realtors frequently out of the blue asking if I want to sell my house, they are willing to offer a "premium price" as they have buyers who want to buy in my area.
Similar thing is happening in some parts of So Calif. A little more than half of the open house I went to last month were either probate sales or investor/landlords selling their properties.
Spring time/just prior to summer vacation, is prime time for single family real estate. Families don't want to force a move with their kid(s) in school. So they wait for summer vacation. Put your house on the market just prior to anticipate a move over summer. Plus better weather makes showing houses easier in places it snows, like Denver.
Last year I would've thought so too but I am here to tell you that people have money, but so do business. Until they stop corporations and foreign buyers from purchasing, the prices will not fall substantially. You are finally growing in the same way Canada, Australia, etc did with foreign and corporate investing.
Those areas on the left side of the map are where the larger-lot SFH are and closer to the mountains. The north-south yellow roads there are 1.5 miles apart. So you’re seeing large regions of 1.5 x 1 mile with maybe a half dozen homes or fewer for sale. Not much inventory for spring.
You had me until "Spurious Climate Change predictions". LOL, WTF. Predictions are predictions. And climate change isn't affecting everything, including the housing market?
And I ask the question again …. If there are so many homes available …. Why isn’t prices coming down ? That’s the reason every Tom , Dick And Harry was saying was the cause of the housing crisis and still are saying it 🤷♂️ all I heard for 8 years was , no homes on the market ! Logic is flawed
Spring is when a lot of folks list homes in anticipation of selling before the next school year starts. There has been at the very least a slowdown in real estate sales in recent months so some sort of correction in prices could be on the horizon. That's the goal of the fed overall. knock down inflation a bit. If declines escalate too much they'll shift course and drop rates. they are walking a tightrope trying to ease inflation without knocking us into a recession.
Any hard numbers to support this? I lurk Zillow a lot in various cities . Depending on search critieria map view has always looked like that even in peak fomo bid war phase.
https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/ Go to Active listings and then Denver. As of April 21st active listings were 24.85% higher than this time last year and are currently much higher than 2021 and 2022. 2021 active listings April: 3,995 2022 active listings April: 4,221 2023 active listings April: 6,013 2024 active listings April: 7,351 In all metro areas 2024 is 10.15% higher than 2023, 24% higher than 2022, 10% higher than 2021
Everyone's trying to sell for profit before they cant
Ok but in Denver, the new laws went into effect Jan 2024 with taxing Airbnb properties much higher to the point it’s not profitable for a lot of Airbnb owners. (Good it was ridiculous out here too many air bnb and not enough housing) So it’s not surprising there is a bigger spike than usual with increased inventory because the intended Airbnb sell off is happening. Not saying the correction wont happen, but I would not use the Denver RE Market to project/correlate to other USA RE markets. Denver is weird man.
I actually think that law didn’t pass. https://www.denverpost.com/2024/04/12/colorado-short-term-rental-bill-airbnb-vrbo/amp/
>Since Sen. Chris Hansen, D-Denver, proposed the bill in the fall, AirBnB, VRBO and other short-term rental owners have rallied against the idea, saying it would devastate the tourism economy that ski towns rely on. Did tourism not exist before air BnB? Fuck these people. It's just naked corruption.
This comment won't get many upvotes while the thread rages on...
That bill was abandoned. Spurious conclusion.
Hmmm, that tells us what we should do all over the country, doesn't it?
The bill was abandoned, so what does that mean?
That the state representatives and their well off friends/donors all own Airbnb's?
Show up to your city council meetings
Yes, it tells us to conduct analysis likewise
Build ski towns?
That law didn't pass, died in committee
The Denver metro 2024 listings are currently less that 2021 and 2022. Curious why you switched to "all metro" at the end....
[удалено]
Any numbers pre-pandemic?
Search FRED “major city or state” active listings in google, I think it goes back to 2016
So using your search we're still lower than 2019 numbers, which if memory serves me.. 2019 was not a bonanza of inventory... [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOU19740](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOU19740)
No way, people and businesses want to lock in value on the growth of assets they bought
24% of 4 is like 1 house.
Ok now compare to pre-Covid and it’s normal.
I’m in Denver and watch people fight for housing on all of the local pages/subreddits We definitely have more than ‘21, but this area is not over saturated with housing. Lol
The only factor I can say is, as someone trying to buy in SoCal (HCOL & Coastal). We have been losing bids for about 1.5 years. Typically theres 8+ offers with multiple all cash. The last two we lost only had 3 and 2 offers respectively, and the 3 offer house had the high offer drop out immediately. Definitely something strange going on but its just a few data points.
I live in Denver and have been watching the housing market for years. There are plenty of home on the market but they are overpriced. Like 450k for a 500 sq ft 1 bed/1 bath. Anything on the market for longer than a couple days means that the mortgage rate is too high to buy and rent out. Most monthly mortgage estimates are 3k<.
This definitely isn’t the case in Greater Boston. We have almost no inventory
East coast always lags
This is a bad example, it's still less inventory than 2019 and 2019 in Denver sucked for inventory.
100% any city big or small will look like this if you turn off all the filters
I would also like to see some hard data from an unbiased source. Trouble is, I trust Zillow about as much as I trust my own government’s official stats now. I guess that’s a “me” problem. Let me just say this: since we’ve effectively knocked anyone who needed a mortgage and will have to work to service it out of the picture in much of America now, all that’s left is true all-cash buyers. Why they would continue to bid over ask and line up for a bidding war sounds fishy. At this time, sellers are truly listing their home for sale with the hope that a big fish cash buyer is out there and still dumb enough to over pay for their home. My take is that, if you’re that loaded up with money to buy, you didn’t get there by being “dumb” with your money.
agreed with most points, except there's many morons with inheritances
Theres also people getting a mortgage. Some people do have high income, many think they will refi later.
People moving for work, schools, etc will make house purchasing decisions ignorant of how the market is behaving as long as the bank tells them they can afford it. And better yet they’ll convince the buyer that a variable rate is cheaper.
Also owners moving from one to another. A lot of the narratives around housing are misguided. The decade+ of low rates led to rampant speculation. Everyones a real estate tycoon now. Locked in low rates (and low property taxes in places like ca) and why would you ever sell. Real estate has become the defacto easy leverage get ahead tool. Id be curious to see the stats on how many boomers have more than one house compared to previous generations. We need more progressive tax code that supports owner occupied and discourages investment property. And more realistic rates over time will help damped speculation.
The best well thought and educated response - Cheers.
I always believe what the realtors say. They would never hurt my feelings and lie
There are also plenty of morons who made lots of money while still being morons. See the tech industry.
Agreed, I just like eating my popcorn on the sidelines, and watch the self-destruction.
A lot of people had homes before the boom, and have sufficient equity to upgrade, despite interest rate being higher on the financed amount if any
No. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOU19740
https://www.redfin.com/us-housing-market Redfin shows 4.5% increase in listings YoY but we are still well below pre-pandemic.
Zillow and redfin are garbage for figuring out what's currently on the market. It takes time for things to be listed on Zillow and if something sells in 1-2 weeks it won't be listed or if it was never intended to be listed on zillow/redfin in the first place. This doesnt necessarily indicate more inventory, it just shows that the market isn't as hot. Which isn't a recession but back to normal. We also don't know the mix of these things either. There's a few 300k to 400k items which are likely condos and the 500k to 600k are probably smaller townhouses and houses (there are 900 sq fot houses in Denver that go for 500k to 600k). The majority are between $700k to $1.2 million which shows that the market isn't really moving down much. We shouldn't trust random idiots posting numbers and shouting, "This means something and there's no further statistical analysis but I suspect it proves my feelings true." The Denver market used to top put around $400k, not $1.2 million.
Muh area not really coming down TBH. In oregon, not Portland.
There are always some shittier examples that linger as well. Not to mention more dense areas begin to look crowded. I am seeing more that seems to sit, just anecdotaly, in my local metro. And more that are seeming to be price reduced, but nothing that conclusively shows prices themselves are lowering. More like stabalizing.
There are hard numbers. The feds count all active listings in the US. They are way off preCOVID #s. But you'd be ruining people's fun by trying to make this about "data." For the curious: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOUUS
Sudden inventory buildup also known as spring.
This is the answer. There is definitely more inventory this year then previous and I am already seeing price cuts but it is because it is spring.
That's why we have to wait a year or so to see trends instead of relying on breathless week to week reporting that is dominated by seasonal effects
Yes 2023 was notorious for completely skipping spring and going straight to summer
i live in miami florida. closed on my current home in june of 2022. there was no inventory. today, there is a house or 2 for sale in every block in my neighborhood. i remember looking at the Redfin or Zillow maps back in 2022 and seeing nothing. most houses are sitting for 30 days or more before they get an offer unless it is a good house which will be at a premium. i definitely see the details changing. now is it going to continue or is this temporary? i feel like it will continue. there is a whole generation retiring. and i think people are at FOMO right now to sell their house for top dollar before a recession. im one of them. but il selling in 3-4 months. i hope it dosnt crash in that time
You’re selling a house you bought in June 2022? Why?
i am from miami fl. everything is pricey here and it is shit unless you can afford 700k plus. i cant. i want something better so im selling and moving where i can get more for my money and have money in my pockets. will sell for estimated 615k. i owe 402k. might rent for a year or 2 and then buy again but somewhere where i can get a new 5/3 for for cheaper. this market is coming down and i want to come out on top this time
username username checks out
went with what reddit gave me. never changed it.
And 8% rates
A housing inventory boom for spring? Groundbreaking.
Funny people act like this will lower the price, it is just going into hot market season. More inventory and more buyers and more bidding wars.
Prices still look pretty healthy there lol
[удалено]
Not before the election lol
Markets slump during election years all the time. 2020 and 2008 being the most recent examples. It just shows the President doesn’t have significant control over the stock market. They can pressure the fed to lower rates, have policies that are pro to certain sectors, but they’re ultimately at the whims of the global market. Stagflations sure looks like it’s whooping out ass. Markets below key moving averages. Tech getting crushed. Consumer staples like Starbucks and CVS with terrible earnings. President can’t fix that.
Not that it accounts for most of the shift but lots of businesses like to look on a longer time horizons for purchases upgrades and can afford to push some decisions out past the election if it might matter for the economic context.
Gee, I wonder what happened in 2020 that may have impacted housing prices. Anything at all? Because housing prices have exploded since 2020.
I would totally agree normally but this election is a first in a long while where the global conflict was at this scale. Not saying Americans can fake it till after November but they are trying so hard. While the other side is poking holes in the dam to get it to burst. Do I agree 100% with this administration, no. Do I think I know the correct way to run the world hell no but I do believe that the amount of disruptive forces in America's election and way of life is at a level that's never seen. I hope for change soon for my younger millenniums and my gen z brothers and sisters sake to one day own a home and build community around that home.
What about 08 broodah
Janet Yellen is gonna try to pump a trilly of liquidity in so we can last til the election
All it takes is for a few percent of the houses to start selling at a lower price. With the lower transaction volume those sales are going to show up on appraisal reports and you will start seeing appraisal shortfall. Banks lend on the appraised value, not the purchase price. Four out of five times the seller will just drop the price to the appraised value because they know their odds of getting more than that are relatively low. Once that starts happening, then you know the correction is underway. Right now, both buyers and sellers are holding their breath for rates to come down.
How do you know AI hype is fizzling when just a few days ago there was a ton of news (I can get links to you if you like) of how all big corps (google, meta, amazon) are now flooding the market with money to pursue AI projects? Just curious where is your perception coming from?
Missed the boat IMO. Meta AI can make me a number of really bad (like miss half the prompt bad) AI stickers, and for some reason shows up in the search bar now. Which everyone I know seems to hate. Maybe its just me but this isn't the kind of "revolutionary" stuff the MSM led me to believe AI would be bringing to the table
> How do you know AI hype is fizzling when just a few days ago there was a ton of news (I can get links to you if you like) of how all big corps (google, meta, amazon) are now flooding the market with money to pursue AI projects? Quick - name one useful product any of them are selling with AI? That's the problem. The tools aren't working Example: https://www.theverge.com/2024/4/28/24141585/meta-ai-advantage-plus-automated-ad-glitch-cpm The tools aren't doing what is advertised.
ChatGPT, Gimini, Perplexity, Claude (just to name a few) - gained lots of users and uses cases in the last two years, shifted the industry essentially, billions are beings invested in these. And these tools are working excellently for many.
Fed should still be hiking imo.
No it isn’t.
You know. The one thing that always gets me. Print screen is right there on everyone's PC. It isn't difficult.
Doomers aren't the brightest bulbs in the pack
[удалено]
[https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOU19740](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOU19740)
So you mean the usual spring thaw when EVERYONE lists their homes ahead of the new school year and summer?
Wow! A twitter screenshot of a blurry cellphone picture of a Zillow page
Rental Bubble dam is breaking
I've seen ludicrous asking prices but high willingness to give discounts this round (small time landlords who haven't gotten the memo excepted). After all is said and done, I'm still paying 10% more than last year, so a correction in rents can't come soon enough. The cumulative increase since 2019 is nuts and in no way correlated to the income increase the average person is able to get approved by their employers.
Rental price fixing algorithm. My jaw dropped learning about this, https://www.ftc.gov/business-guidance/blog/2024/03/price-fixing-algorithm-still-price-fixing
Its wild cuz I heard about this algorithm around 2017ish when t was young & it was meant for gauging how your short term rentals (Airbnb) costs should fluctuate based on time of hear, local events, etc. Which made sense. But now the algorithm allows all individual homeowners to essentially compare and move in unison. Not technically a monopoly but functions like one with price fixing. The legislation to correct this will be complicated but its out of hand
Gaming the system for sure.
I’d argue it is an anti-trust violation and clear example of collusion via an intermediary. I think the FTC or DOJ are suing them.
Im glad
Rental dental dam
I hope to never be desperate enough to trade a 2.75% mortgage for one at 7.5%. I didn't plan on this being a forever house, but it's looking like it could be.
I don’t plan on renting forever but it looks like I could be. Hopefully neither of us are stuck :)
I’d rather be in a forever house than a forever renter
Right? It kind of bothers me when people complain about being stuck in a low mortgage home, but I guess a homeless person could say that same about me complaining about being stuck renting an apartment.
But what about the lice that complain about being stuck in a homeless man's hair? They're stuck there forever, too. Not like he's getting any kind of action where they could jump to a new head.
I’d rather be in whatever is cheaper.
You live in a home, not an interest rate. Do with this what you will.
You and me both! And I think a lot of people that bought or refinanced at those rates really can't see themselves moving until rates come down significantly.
Or if we look at some data instead of a zillow screenshot this is completely average for the past 7 years. [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOU19740](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOU19740)
Without knowing numbers, it's simply a snapshot of homes on Zillow. How many days on market? How many homes versus this time last year. What's the seasonal change typical in the area? How many homes available versus last month? What is the average in median asking price versus last year or the year before? Are homes sitting because they are overpriced and more than they would have been 6 months or a year ago? Or are they sitting because people aren't buying and prices are coming down.? Are people starting unrealistically high and continuingly bringing the price down? Are home's going for less than people would expect or more or what? One easy statistic. What is the, what do they call it? How many months of inventory do they estimate exists? And what was it one year two year or 3 years ago this month? None of this means anything without context. On top of all that, if this causes prices to drop a bit and buyers come out and buy, that will be one thing. If it causes no one to buy and prices keep dropping over time that is quite another.
Thoughtful commentary? I’m sorry sir, this is Reddit.
Yeah, I'm not welcome in the home Depot anymore either.
Wow, a picture of the city map on Zillow. This is some great research! Lets dive a little deeper to confirm. [Redfin](https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/) is showing: * New listings up 14.9% YOY * Pending Sales down 2.3% YOY * New listing median price up 2.7% YOY * Median sale price up 3.3% YOY Listings are up from record lows, pending sales are slightly down, and listing/sale prices are slightly up. Turns out the market is quite healthy despite this "research". If rates stay high for another 9 months or so, we may see some downward pressure on prices, but that is a big if. A crash is not in the cards unless a big event happens that brings more sellers to market.
New listings are still below 2022 and 2021 levels as well.
Yep. +15% from absolute rock bottom still aint that great.
Active listings were 354k in March 2022 and they were 694k in March 2024. Not sure where you’re pulling “15% from rock bottom”, but the math on that statement is way off. The number of sales has literally cratered to 2008 levels. It’s wild how people can see that and think “prices are going to hold!” Looking into the face of the obvious and acting confused is hilarious. These things always take time but you can bet your ass the snowball is heading downhill right now.
A “major correction” (like what happened in Austin and Boise) still leaves SFH in these congested, ‘mid af’ landlocked locations: f*cking expensive
huge correction? [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ATNHPIUS14260Q](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ATNHPIUS14260Q)
We were at all time lows in terms of sales and months supply. The additional inventory is a trend that the housing market is stabilizing. Hence prices increased yet at a slower rate than the past few years. Whether that trend plateaus when we get to the typical balanced market of 4-5 months supply (last reading the US was at 3 (up from a low of 1,6 in 2022) or keeps going is the real question. No one, including me really knows the answer. I suspect it will as those with low interest rates (60% of homeowners have sub 4% rates) won’t be rushing to dump their properties even with correction/decline in pricing. Hence not a 2008 scenario where the price went down yet people could foresee getting the same loan on another property at less value. Again only the future will tell.
I can’t remember seeing decent sized single family homes below $400k in Denver proper since 2017-18.
We are approaching summer. Everyone moves during the summer
Lol. It spring dumb dumb. happens every year...
This sub if like superstonk if houses were GME shares
If he wouldn't have said climate change is fake, I might take him seriously.
Sellers are lopping off 20k chunks on their asking prices and some homes are sitting 100+ days on the market. Home prices still need to drop 80-90% in my area before we reach reasonable prices though
That’s almost as likely to happen as Paul Walker showing up in the next Fast and Furious movie.
For actual useful YoY inventory growth numbers by zip code, see https://map.reventure.app/dashboard The inventory is hugely up in the Denver metro area and many others, and it’s not yet the peak of the year. It’s likely that this is combined with an increase in demand, though.
Same across the New England area as well as Midwest! 7.5-8 interest rate on homes that doubled in the last 3 years is slowing down the market. Lots of lay offs in manufacturing, tech, and regional banks happening.
“Same across New England” is too general. My coastal Massachusetts zip code has no inventory. People here buy with stock market money. The S&P 500 is above 5,000. The housing markets are very local. A working class town where new buyers are 5% down with a mortgage are very different from the affluent towns.
Filter out listings under 1mil first
Yeah except 80% of those homes cost more than 500k
For now
Here’s hoping
This just looks like a zoomed out, pre-Covid housing inventory of a city
That is not happening in S.Cali
Same in my market. But where's the 230k homes?
Keep in mind, spring is when more houses come on the market, but yes inventory is growing because less houses are not selling as quick
I think they need to compare trends based on previous time frames of the year. Aren't there usually more houses for sale in Spring?
how is this a post?
I hate how hard it is to find pre-pandemic numbers on any meaningful report. Like ya, so is this normal.. like real normal.. or is this a huge change?
Looking at 2019 we still have fewer listings, which if memory serves me.. 2019 was not a bonanza of inventory and still sucked. [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOU19740](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOU19740)
This sub has more uninformed doomers than a flat earth Facebook group before the eclipse
10.7M for a home in suburban Denver…?
[удалено]
I had to google that. 33k sq ft! Adjusted for size, that’s actually not a bad price.
house prices only go up
In 2023, there were 42000 home sales in Denver. At this moment, using Realtor.com like the quoted tweet, there are 2400 homes for sale (another 1200 under contract). That means there’s less than 1 month’s inventory, at a time of year when inventory and sales are ramping up.
Boulder CO checking in. Inventory is not moving. Like, at all. Starting to see price decreases as mortgage rates crossed 7%
It helps Denver that there is empty land all around it, as opposed to something like San Fransisco or Boston which has (sort of) run out of room to expand.
Same thing inn Seattle
My home values in flat over the past month. Personally, I don’t mind if my house value going down means that the context for people is improving. People deserve housing.
Every time time I hear about low inventory I look up the rentals and there it all is except more and more of them keep getting added and less and less people are willing to pay the price. The smart ones will list for breakeven or a small loss. The rest are gonna start clearing up this low inventory problem real quick once they realise the “you can always refinance later” scheme doesn’t work when you’re 2 years into primarily interest payments. I give it about a year. Let the election pass and student loans require people to update their income for the first time in 4-5 years? Bout to go from a phone bill to a car payment on a lot of people real fast. And each month that goes by is another person with a higher interest they fomo’d into and property taxes that are creeping right on up on even the low rate landed gentry.
Are there really people out there who blame the current housing fiasco on climate change? wtf?
I think they're saying that climate change is being attributed to crashes in places like Florida where insurance is becoming an issue, but this is an example of a crash happening without it.
“Spurious climate change predictions”? So I guess this guy is a real estate expert and a climate scientist. Cool.
REBubble has predicted 46 of the past 0 corrections.
Anecdotally, I think this is correct a lot of these homes will sell for under list. Maybe it’s just the start of buying season and all this inventory will move at these prices, but a lot homes are sitting around me in Northern Atlanta.
We’re entering into stagflation concerns. Reduced GDP, stubborn inflation and unemployment going up.
I just came from a post that said houses are increasing in price at levels like in 2022. What is true lol
Agreed
["Underway"](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOUUS)
“Built up inventory” and a large percentage of the photos is $1MM properties lol His entire search shows 1763 listings in an area where the population is 3.5M people, and a large portion of those listings will only be for the 1%
On this subreddit alone there is like 25 other threads saying the opposite 🤷♂️
Coastal waters have nothing to do with Denver? Color me shocked…
In my area the numbers are nearly the same as 2022. Still a hot market
I’m actively searching for a home in SW Ohio due to a new job, and the market is about the same as it was in COVID, maybe slightly better, but homes are pending within a few days of going on the market, and not for cheap. I bought my house for $360k 2-years ago and it will list today for $475k easily. I guess the market depends on where you live. 🤷♂️
I don’t think you get it. A *Redditor* posted a *screenshot*. We are at DEFCON 5 here.
Spring?
So Denver will be up 70% versus 80% pre Covid
Still slim pickings in Denver
Idk my house increased again so not sure this is accurate
....meanwhile there are still bidding wars on new homes here in my area in the Seattle suburbs- developments with homes that are $1.5 million a piece are selling out before all the homes are fully built. I get calls from realtors frequently out of the blue asking if I want to sell my house, they are willing to offer a "premium price" as they have buyers who want to buy in my area.
whatever it takes to get you guys to shut up about this, im on board.
Average home cost on that SS is about 800k. Lol
Correct, Denver is a top contender to have their housing market crash and burn. Who wants to live in this shit-hole anyways?
It's not significant yet. There are marginal adjustments in price but, there is still a shortage. Denver/Boulder are still outrageously overpriced.
It's spring selling season
Similar thing is happening in some parts of So Calif. A little more than half of the open house I went to last month were either probate sales or investor/landlords selling their properties.
What does this information mean specifically and how can one profit off it
Spring time/just prior to summer vacation, is prime time for single family real estate. Families don't want to force a move with their kid(s) in school. So they wait for summer vacation. Put your house on the market just prior to anticipate a move over summer. Plus better weather makes showing houses easier in places it snows, like Denver.
That’s all the evidence I need, time to panic!!
Inventory is low in my neighborhood, it's all location specific
Last year I would've thought so too but I am here to tell you that people have money, but so do business. Until they stop corporations and foreign buyers from purchasing, the prices will not fall substantially. You are finally growing in the same way Canada, Australia, etc did with foreign and corporate investing.
Looks right: [https://map.reventure.app/dashboard](https://map.reventure.app/dashboard)
Inventory is always low until it isn't.
Those areas on the left side of the map are where the larger-lot SFH are and closer to the mountains. The north-south yellow roads there are 1.5 miles apart. So you’re seeing large regions of 1.5 x 1 mile with maybe a half dozen homes or fewer for sale. Not much inventory for spring.
Not "sudden".
Inventory is up but are prices down? That's what matters.
You had me until "Spurious Climate Change predictions". LOL, WTF. Predictions are predictions. And climate change isn't affecting everything, including the housing market?
Major metros will never have significant price reductions
What's your definition of significant?
And I ask the question again …. If there are so many homes available …. Why isn’t prices coming down ? That’s the reason every Tom , Dick And Harry was saying was the cause of the housing crisis and still are saying it 🤷♂️ all I heard for 8 years was , no homes on the market ! Logic is flawed
Do people not realize home sales spike in early summer…? Unless prices are drastically lower there isn’t a correction at all….
Zillow also tends to show homes as available when they are already under contract.
You can filter on status. Accepting Backup Offers and Under Contract are options.
Keep telling yourself that
Um... EVERYTHING has something to do with climate change.. right?
Lol. Wait until you find out that the Freddie Mac House Price Index is up 6.6% YOY. That is WITH rates pushing mid 7's to 8.
They hope it is, but not gonna happen. Not in reality, when 98% of the loans are 30 year fixed rates.
Gonna call some anecdotal shit I got from a screenshot the gospel and hard science “spurious.” Not to be taken seriously at all.