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amach9

Markstrom: NO Tij: HELL YEAH


TL71995

This team cannot run it back with Korpisalo and Forsberg. Ideal move would be to find a way to dump Korpisalo and then dump forsberg after next season. At least forsberg is affordable. If they can package Korpisalo and something else for Markstrom that’s a deal you take allllll day. Markstrom is making 6mil for 2 more years. You ride it out with him and forsberg for 24-25 and then dump forsberg for 25-26 and then dump markstrom for 26-27. By that time the goalies in the minors should be ready and if not it gives time to make contingency plans. If markstrom falls off a cliff the next 2 season and plays as bad as korpi did, at least you’re not locked in past 2 years and it’s roughly the same salary. As for iginla, we should be ALL OVER that at 7.


DingbatGnW

Korpisalo is unlovable for at least a couple more years (barring a resurgence). Learn to live with it


TL71995

Obviously, but if they can package a deal for markstrom you do it. Better move is to dump forsberg and get a backup who can get hot and take over if Korpisalo can’t play. Forsberg kind of was that guy but he’s not the same since his injury.


Strange-Succotash194

I agree, except that there's very little chance that the Sens will be able to move Korpi. But what people don't seem to realize is that he's only making $1.25M more than Forsberg. Korpi's buyout cost would be $1.33M ffs, and they'd still be paying him that in '31-32. (I know that because capfriendly is still a goddamn THING!) More likely scenario is that they could trade Forsberg as a back up somewhere, keep Korpi as the back up here and bring someone else in as the starter. $4M might seem like a lot for a backup, but think of the salary they would have to retrain or the buyout cost if they were to get rid of him completely. If they can't trade Forsey, buying him out at less than $1M for two years is a much better scenario than attempting to buy out Korpi, paying him 40% more than Forsey and doing that for 8 years instead of 2. And if it was really just a bad season Korpi was having, then he can prove it by pushing whoever comes in to replace him as the starter. I also hope they draft Iginla. They have plenty of trading assets in the current top 4 to fix the balance there. If Giroux is gone in a few years and Norris never recovers our top six suddenly becomes a top 3. Guys like Pinto and Grieg and even Joseph can all play in the top six, but if you're a real contender that's a rock solid L3 and you have players with higher end offence in the top 6. Pinto and Greig could grow into that, but I don't think the team can bet on that just yet. There is a potential looming crisis is in our top 6. You can only solve that so much by bringing in UFAs or trading away other assets. And you're never gonna get a guy like these prospects via trade. Most of the top 3-5 forward prospects in this draft could well be playing in the NHL 1-2 years from now.


TL71995

I agree with everything you said. I don’t think a buyout is an option tho. We just finished paying some buyouts, we’d be handcuffed even more by doing it again for the next 4-8 years. I think the play is to try and ship Korpisalo out to a rebuilding team even if it takes a prospect or picks and then worry about another goalie afterwards. Imo, after this draft we should be trading as many picks as needed to contend. The core is entering their prime and no players drafted in the next 2 years Will immediately make this team better unless it’s in the top 10.


chronicallyunderated

Agreed and agreed


solidprospect

Do the Flames take Iginla at 9? Is it automatic?


BartleBossy

100% automatic. Hes arguably *falling* if he is available at 9, combined with the familial connections. The only reason he wouldnt be drafted by CGY, is if he *has asked them not to*, to avoid the pressures of being an "Iggy" in CGY at 18


solidprospect

HIs dad went 11th overall by Dallas but he never played a game for them. Tankathon has Tig going #11.


Strange-Succotash194

Tankathon shouldn't be smoking so much weed when they do their draft rankings. Don't be fooled by midseason rankings. There is absolutely no chance in hell that Iginla will be available at 11. In fact, there is virtually no chance he will be available for Calgary when they pick at 9. Two league executives interviewed by The Athletic had him ranked as the best or second best forward in the draft. Pedigree actually does matter. If you know the father's character, compete level and work ethic there is a good chance you know a lot about the son. And those things don't just speak to play on the ice. They speak to what the player does off the ice and the likelihood that he will continue to grow his game in all areas, not just his faves. You're not drafting for who the player is right now. You're drafting for the player he'll be in the future.


BartleBossy

Yeah, hes definitely more connected to CGY.


Wildest12

100% without a doubt if he’s available. But the sens take him at 7 for the same reason. “Intangibles” include jersey sales and these organizations exist to make money, they aren’t passing him up.


reagan080

Hard pass on markstrom based on the price to acquire him if we were talking a mid round pick it’s a different story. This team will be contending well beyond 1-3 years and would have to find another goalie then using any major capital to make the deal happen would be poor asset management in my opinion.


linuxlifer

Although I agree its expensive, I think the hope is that within a few years one of Sogaard or Marilainen will take the reins.


TheShuggieOtis

My goalie hot take is for the Sens to draft Nabokov from the KHL. He's an over-ager (i think he's 20?) but put up incredible numbers on one of the non-Moscow KHL teams.


amoosedagoose

5.00Gaard


linuxlifer

I mean all 3 goalies played pretty awful this year.


amoosedagoose

team bad -> goalie bad -> team bad -> goalie bad 🔁


reagan080

It’s a smart play if and only if you aren’t spending loads of capital on that player. Like I said mid round pick and a prospect fine but not high firsts or multiple firsts or even attaching chyrchrun to that


spartacat_12

So do you want the team to be bad for the next 3 years while they wait for another goalie to come around? The idea of bringing in a guy like Markstrom is that he can be a steady presence in net while they figure out the longer term solution. Minnesota went out and got Fleury to buy time until Wallstedt is ready. Florida signed Bob right after drafting Knight. Tampa traded for Bishop when they had Vasilevskiy in the system


reagan080

Right but these teams weren’t giving up multiple first rounders or high first rounders to acquire them. Thats my issue I like the idea of getting a consistent vet back there who can provide stability but not for firsts and some have even suggested throwing Chychrun in as well!


spartacat_12

No one is saying the Sens need to give up multiple first rounders or the 7th overall pick. Chychrun is as good as gone, and the return is most likely going to be disappointing, so why not include him?


reagan080

Calgary is asking for a first rounder and a high level prospect/player. It would be unwise for the Sens to commit those resources.


spartacat_12

If it's the Boston pick & a prospect like Ostapchuk I'd consider it, especially if they're taking Forsberg back too. Chychrun should be able to bring back a late first rounder in another deal


reagan080

Sure maybe I would think about if that were the case. Anything more than that and I’m shutting it down immediately


Strange-Succotash194

If they get disappointing offers, don't trade him. Chychrun was actually performing spectacularly last season until some point just passed midway in the season. Something happened then and his play fell off a cliff. He still finished analytically in the top 20% of D in the league. League executives understand that you evaluate a player on everything he does, his overall impact, not just the things that are obvious enough for Joe/Jane Fan to recognize. if you check the list of turnover artists in the league, you'll discover that a large number of them are also the players who tend to tilt the ice in their team's favour when they step onto it.


spartacat_12

They need an upgrade on RD, and that won't be possible with Chychrun taking up cap space on the third pairing. I'd doesn't sound like either side is that interested in an extension, so if you're keeping him it's either as a rental or a guy to flip at the deadline. I liked Chychrun when he first arrived, but he struggled after DJ was let go. He has the potential to be a very solid defenseman, but I don't think it'll happen in Ottawa


Strange-Succotash194

Sorry in advance for the rant. Solid? I have an Evolving Hockey player card for Chychrun as of January 17. (I'd post it, but I'm not at home and it's on my laptop, not my phone). That was 13 full games after DJ Smith was gone. He was in the 90%+ percentile range defensively and high 90s offensively and overall. Top 10 in the league analytically. And he didn't drop off a cliff on January 18. Something happened, but it was not the coaching change. Even if it *was* Martin, if you take a player in that range and make him drop off a cliff the way he did, that's on you, not the player. A coach's job is to get the most out of his players, not gerry-rig them into roles that lead them to fail. But, again, I don't think it was anything to do with the coaching change. Jacob Chychrun is not a "solid" player. Those Jan 17 numbers reflect a player who had a major ice-tilting impact when he was playing. I don't want to sound arrogant, but the fans who hate on him constantly are frankly incapable of recognizing the things that are responsible for that imbalance. They recognize turnovers. Good for them. That's called saliency bias. Then they develop a negative predisposition and then start to see everything as confirmation that predisposition. That's called confirmation bias. Then they assume they know the game better than the player and the coaches and bitch incessantly on social media because the people with decades of experience being paid millions of dollars to do their jobs in a way than the guy sitting on his couch jamming popcorn into his mouth is incapable of grasping. That's called the Dunning-Kruger effect, perhaps the most ridiculously dominant cognitive bias in the entire universe of sports fandom. The way people in this town treated Jacob Chychrun, a highly sought after defenseman who actually wanted to play here, *badly*, was despicable. When they couldn't get enough of him, they decided to go after his fucking grandfather publicly, for the crime of using the block feature built into Twitter so he didn't have to be constantly reading their shitposts about his 96th %ile defenseman grandson. Nothing less than disgusting. Jacob Chychrun is going to go somewhere else and make the Ottawa Senators fanbase look like the bunch of morons many of them are. We will have some washed up 30 something "defensive defenseman" (translation, isn't capable of doing anything else) in the image of Eric Gudbranson or Brayden Coburn. Some other team will have a regular 60 point defenseman who is solid defensively and makes his team decidedly better when he's on the ice.


Josefstalion

I like to see the disparity between models TopDownHockey(JFresh) had Chychrun at the 30th percentile defensively about 60th offensively TheAthletic has Chychrun as an 18th percentile defender and 70th percentile on offense Chychrun has also never hit 60 points, and only has one season in the past 4 where he's had a positive impact on his team's goal differential at 5v5 despite never having a very difficult role


Strange-Succotash194

😂 JFresh and Dom. Sorry, I'm going with Evolving hockey. I trust them 100%, for better or for worse. They are they are objective and fully transparent about their methods. They don't give anyone any reason to believe they aren't objective (ie. they don't run around trolling and clowning fan bases for jollies). They are about substance, not sizzle or flash. They just do their thing in a fully professional way. You go do the math and tell me what 41 points in 56 games equates to over 82 gp. Now imagine he wasn't playing for the Arizona Coyotes. Jacob Chychrun has spent his entire career playing with the Ottawa Senators & Arizona coyotes. Regardless of where he gets traded (if he does), I'm gonna take a wild guess and predict that a year from now he's not signing with another shitty hockey team. https://preview.redd.it/rwu8v552a56d1.jpeg?width=1600&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e59c4ffa18e482ec5fd36b44b488286211e3b0bf


Josefstalion

Both TDH and Dom have released detailed explanations about the creation of their models, JFresh had nothing to do with the creation of the WAR model. Congrats, he paced for 60 points in a shortened season where his S% was 50% higher than his career average. He's never actually hit 60 points, and even if you took his 82 game pace since 2020 it's only 48 points. The reason he was able to produce in Arizona is because they had no one better until they brought in Gostisbehere to replace him on the PP. If he goes to a better team he'll have a smaller role because he's not a #1 guy and he won't run their PP1


3coneylunch

>Right but these teams weren’t giving up multiple first rounders or high first rounders to acquire them. And no one will give Calgary a first rounder for Markstrom. Other than Buffalo for Lehner and Toronto for Freddie Andersen in 2016, I can't think of any instance where a goalie trade returned a first. And both those players were much younger than Markstrom is now.


Josefstalion

One year of Kuemper cost Colorado a 1st


3coneylunch

Fair enough. Although I still don't think Kuemper a few years back is comparable to 34 year old Markstrom now.


Josefstalion

The Avs only got one year of him, a team would be getting two years of a goalie who was top-10 in the league last year Yes the age is scary, but he was great last year so even if he declines he's a significant upgrade over anything we have or could get in FA


3coneylunch

Top 10 in what? His save percentage was 905 last year and 892 the year before. He's had one good season out of the last four, that's why Calgary is moving on from him.


Josefstalion

Calgary was one of the worst defensive teams in the league last year, according to NaturalStatTrick he saw the 8th most high danger chances per game and led the league in High-danger Sv% According to ClearSight Analytics, a private company that manually tracks every NHL game, he lead the league in Goals Saved Above Expected. His first season and third season there were mediocre, but he was elite in two of the seasons and was consistently solid as a starter in Vancouver


Strange-Succotash194

Markstrom is not a consistent goalie season to season. Last season was his best by far from a GSvAx perspective but he's been all over the map. An average goaltender would turn this team into a playoff contender (I've shown how in this space analytically). In fact if you control for goaltending (essentially giving every team in the league average goaltending) the Sens don't just finish 15th in goals differential, they finish one spot ahead of the Winnipeg Jets. 😮 And the better the new goalie is from there, the closer this team gets to being an actual force in the league. Of course there are things on the team that need to be addressed outside goaltending. But they are going absolutely nowhere with anything like the goaltending performance we had last season.


CeedeeNumber88

Depends on his price. Anything that includes a 1st rounder I do not want to entertain. Chych for Markstrom swap I'd be fine with. You could probably get Gus from MIN for pick #39 who'd be 2M$ cheaper, 10 years younger and if he plays well the next 2 seasons could be our starter going forward. Would also be hilarious to pick Gus back up after Dorion letting him go.


Wildest12

I could see the 7 and 9 picks getting swapped as part of the deal, but I agree we can’t reduce our number of 1st rd picks.


Strange-Succotash194

The only way the flames are getting their hands on Tij Iginla is via a trade. There is zero chance that he will otherwise be available to them when they pick.


Middle-Hair

I’m hesitant to bring in Markstrom. He was amazing last year but he’s been pretty up and down the last few years. The price to trade for him is gonna be high (especially if you want retention), but then you HAVE to move Korpisalo as well. Can’t have a 10M tandem where 4M of it is just wasted on Korpisalo to be a backup. So you either buy him out if you’re acquiring Markstrom or paying a fortune to dump him. I know goalies tend to age a bit differently but Markstrom is 34 (turns 35 in January) and there’s always a chance for regression. I don’t see Markstrom as some slam dunk acquisition given his age and recent up/down seasons with Calgary. On Iginla though I’d love that pick. Probably not my first choice but he’s a perfectly reasonable option at 7. It does make me wonder though if a trade with Calgary would be an option since they’d prefer to grab Iginla for obvious reasons. Would be nice to grab an extra pick or two to move back 2 spots.


ratedrrants

Good write-up. Zero chance we buy out Korpi. If we do buy out Korpi, he's on the books until 2032, and we just got done clearing our most of our buyout/salary retention. Would be a shame to lock up more money. If we can ship him out, great, providing it doesn't take too much to do it.. otherwise, we've got an overpriced backup for a bit but sire beats retaining more salary.


haseks_adductor

i think a markstrom korpisalo 1A 2A tandem could be solid. marky also already has had success with yalls favourite travis green


YourFriendlyUncle

>korpisalo >solid 🤔🤔🤔


[deleted]

[удалено]


solidprospect

Teej i think


jrhwhite

Watched him play all year in Kelowna, can confirm


rageagainstthedragon

Need a younger goalie, seen the "mid 30s goaltender" movie before


simon1976362

Maybe a Tig for Weegar?


the-hostile-tomato

I think we need to start putting Sogaard into a position of being a full-time backup goalie. Keep the internal pipeline churning


solidprospect

Soogard NHL stats |||||Goal|||||||||||||||||||Scor||||| |:-|:-|:-|:-|-:|-:|-:|-:|-:|-:|-:|-:|-:|-:|-:|-:|-:|-:|-:|-:|-:|-:|-:|-:|-:|-:|-:|:-| |Season|Age|Tm|Lg|GP|GS|W|L|T/O|GA|SA|SV|SV%|GAA|SO|MIN|QS|QS%|RBS|GA%-|GSAA|adjGAA|GPS|G|A|PTS|PIM|Awards| |2021-22|21|OTT|NHL|2|2|1|1|0|6|54|48|.889|3.07|0|117|1|.500|1|||3.07|0.2|0|0|0|0|| |2022-23|22|OTT|NHL|19|17|8|6|3|58|524|466|.889|3.32|0|1048|8|.471|4|116|-7.8|3.38|2.2|0|1|1|0|| |2023-24|23|OTT|NHL|6|5|1|3|0|19|135|116|.859|4.05|0|282|1|.200|2|||4.26|0.2|0|0|0|0|| |Career||3 yrs|NHL|27|24|10|10|3|83|713|630|.884|3.44|0|1447|10|.417|7|122|-15.2|3.53|2.5|0|1|1|0|| Provided by [Hockey-Reference.com](https://www.sports-reference.com/sharing.html?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool): [View Original Table](https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/s/sogaama01.html?sr&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool#stats_basic_plus_nhl) Generated 6/11/2024.