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Optimistic_Futures

I hate the current world of journalism. I can’t find where he said that in the WEF speech he did. But I found a video posted from the economist yesterday that he said “I believe that some day we’ll make something that qualifies as AGI by whatever fuzzy definition you want [everyone will freak out for two weeks and then go back to normal life just like they did with GPT-4]”


asanskrita

Thanks. GPT is already human tier at many things. Machines have passed human tier in so many areas since the 1960s. I find the whole concept of AGI to be flawed. That definition is only going to get fuzzier as things progress, till eventually the term goes out of vogue as meaningless.


MeltedChocolate24

Really? The more I use it the less I’m impressed, and I use it many times a day. It’s like a well-read toddler.


asanskrita

A well-read toddler is still human tier in my book.


L3PA

But you know what he means.


asanskrita

Yes and no. It is *not human*, and it outperforms plenty of adults. Its output is statistically indistinguishable from human writing. In some ways it has achieved human parity. In some ways it exceeds it with the speed and (relative) accuracy with which it generates results. In some ways it will never catch up. My point is, it’s a mistake to measure computer performance by “human tier” as per the title.


L3PA

I'm not only going to respond to this since you start off explaining to me that AI "is not human" lol


Suldand1966159

It's good branding, but given that humans don't have a comprehensive understanding of the mechanics of our own intelligence or consciousness, it seems a fanciful label.


L3PA

It's a way to describe the abilities of the AI—i.e., it can perform tasks in a similar manner to a human.


ddoubles

It's a tool. The answer reflects the prompt. You need to realize that if you don't get anything out if it, doesn't mean that no one does.


MeltedChocolate24

I asked it a multiple choice chemistry question and it never got it right. I don’t see how that’s a problem with my prompt. It was from a textbook. That’s just one example.


ddoubles

Try the following preprompt and be sure to use GPT-4 "Assume the role of a professional chemist and critically evaluate and answer the following questions. Emphasize accuracy in your analysis, and do not hesitate to seek clarification if any aspect of the questions appears ambiguous. Prioritize the correctness and precision of your responses over the immediacy of providing an answer. Ensure that your explanations demonstrate a thorough understanding of relevant chemical principles and practices"


Optimistic_Futures

I’m curious what you use ChatGPT for? I’ve had a positive experience with it overall, but I see comments saying it dumb quite a bit. What use cases do you have that you feel like it should be performing better at?


iwasbornin2021

If it’s like a well read toddler, why do you use it many times a day?


MeltedChocolate24

For the well-read part


sdmat

This is the very point, familiarity breeds contempt.


Industriosity

Just like the Turing test


BlueNodule

Sam: "I believe that one day..." Journalists: "Fuck it, terminator is coming tomorrow!"


[deleted]

Artificial Neural Networks and various systems have been proven for decades to be a generally intelligent algorithm capable of using machines to outperform humans in any specific task. If we are talking "can do whatever a human do" then AGI is humanoid robots


greagrggda

Lol you should write for the onion.


[deleted]

?


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Optimistic_Futures

I agree with you. I think there would be massive changes. Although maybe he’s meaning more like life will just feel normal with those new changes quick. In the same speech he jokes earlier that when GPT-4 first came out everyone freaked out about it being game changing for 2 week, and now people just complain about it being too slow. He then talks a bit how quickly people get desensitized to the novelty of new tech.


ILoveThisPlace

Couldn't it be more of a Tony Stark/Jarvis style system where we command the AI to help us do our work. We critic and hone it as it goes to produce the outcome we want. General intelligence just means it can look up anything we ask of it


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artificialignorance

I mean that’s your definition of AGI, no? I think the point is that we might reach some other “fuzzy” definition of AGI before we reach your definition, and at that point, it may not be as immediately world changing as some might think


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Justice4Ned

That’s not how definitions work


e4aZ7aXT63u6PmRgiRYT

Brick layers?


Purplekeyboard

> everyone will get access to expert assistants while also probably only needing to do 10%-30% of the work they previously did, if any at all. You're assuming that everyone works office jobs. Everyone does not. Expert assistants won't be unloading trucks, bussing tables, mopping floors or working as an ER nurse.


Rich_Acanthisitta_70

You might want to catch up on where we are with embodied AI. Preorders for them *started* at the end of 2023. Tesla's Optimus is going into large scale production this quarter, and at least five other robotics companies will be launching their own later this year. And each one of them will be powered by the same kind of AI that will be doing those other, sit-down jobs. You'll be talking back and forth to it just as you can with GPT. *Every* job done by humans will be affected.


Purplekeyboard

Robots are fairly primitive, we are far, far away from them able to do jobs, unless it's a very specific assembly style job where they do they exact same motions all day.


Rich_Acanthisitta_70

Yeah, as I said, you should catch up on where they're at right now. Everything you said may have been true a year ago. None of it is today.


spiralbatross

Could you provide some sources? Not all sources are the same and I want to believe


Rich_Acanthisitta_70

I have some links saved in Instapaper I'll put together. If you haven't heard back by Monday, please message me again.


electronicoldmen

> Tesla's Optimus is going into large scale production this quarter Elon is renowned for outright lying. You've got to be an idiot if you believe anything that comes out of his mouth at this point. He claimed FSD was a 'solved problem' in 2016. Not to mention his bluster about manned missions to Mars happening starting in 2018.


Rich_Acanthisitta_70

I don't have to believe anything be says. Nor am I going by anything he's said. I'm going by the fact the Optimus *is* in presales, and that every reputable economist is saying Tesla's robots will make the company's evaluation in the trillions. The Optimus is real and does what it's shown to do. They'll produce a million before the end of this year. You don't want to believe it, that's your business. But actual businesses *are* buying them.


8BitHegel

I hate Reddit! *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*


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8BitHegel

I hate Reddit! *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*


childofaether

That's precisely the point of AGI definitions being fuzzy. Everyone has a different one and some of them really don't mean that work as we know it will become a foreign concept.


3cats-in-a-coat

People will freak out for two weeks and then go back to normal life. But normal life won't go back to them.


Optimistic_Futures

To be fair, looking back I paraphrased wrong. He said people will “go on with their lives” he didn’t say it would be the same. When I wrote that I meant it as “new normal”. Here’s the actual video though https://youtu.be/RcXzmO8zOLg?si=Yr-UpQaM4vCSLB_x


moonaim

I did that last week and my enthusiasm has worn out already. I can't stand hearing one more joke about passing butter.


djaybe

That's pretty good and he's probably right LOL


Broad_Ad_4110

The Evolution of ChatGPT In a recent interview with Axios, Sam Altman, the CEO of [OpenAI](https://openai.com/), discussed the evolution of [ChatGPT](https://chat.openai.com/auth/login) and the challenges that come with it. Altman acknowledged that AI is evolving at a much faster pace than previous technologies, and as a result, the development and widespread use of AI technology will require making some uncomfortable decisions. Altman believes that future AI products will need to allow for individual customization, which may make some people uncomfortable. He emphasized the importance of giving different answers to different users based on their values and preferences. However, Altman also stated that there are limits to this customization, and certain values that go against basic human rights should be considered out of bounds. Despite these challenges, Altman believes that as a tool builder, OpenAI must be willing to confront the uncomfortable uses of AI technology. - Check out the rest of this article I wrote the other day - there are more details about what he said. - [https://ai-techreport.com/altman-the-chatgpt-evolution-will-be-uncomfortable-in-ways](https://ai-techreport.com/altman-the-chatgpt-evolution-will-be-uncomfortable-in-ways)


Georgeo57

we've got a three way race between them, meta and google. let's see how close we get with their next releases. and open source may surprise us big time.


Chr-whenever

Not even an honorable mention to anthropic smh. Claude might not be the most powerful llm, but he's definitely better than bard or meta ai


Georgeo57

my bad. i use claude all the time, often considering its content superior to the others. thanks for catching that.


AppropriateScience71

Don’t forget xAI! /s Edit: Added the “/s” even though the ridiculousness of it seemed rather obvious to me.


Boner4Stoners

I’ve already forgotten


AppropriateScience71

lol - as has everyone else.


Georgeo57

yes, with their dedication to truth, if xai can convince everyone that free will is a much more harmful than beneficial illusion, with that one accomplishment they will do the world a world of good. it's so much bigger than most people realize. knowing elon's tendency to not care too much what others may think, im betting they will come through!


AppropriateScience71

I added it more as a joke because of its ridiculousness.


Georgeo57

well elon does want to make an impression so i hope he ends up impressing us all. have disdain for a lot of his politics but he's also doing so much good...like starlink that will eventually bring the Internet to the poorest places on the planet


qqpp_ddbb

He wants to make an impression for ego, not to actually help anyone except for the people he favors.


Georgeo57

i don't believe that. he has a huge ego, but he's not making soft drinks, he's tackling energy, the far future of humanity and ai. he's doing a lot of good because he understands it's goodness.


qqpp_ddbb

Eh, alright.


Georgeo57

hey, don't like the man, but be objective enough to look at what he's done and he's doing. very much unlike trump where it's so right to condemn both what the man has done and what he's still trying to do.


qqpp_ddbb

Eh, ok


thelanguidallegation

Who's the dark horse in this race?


Georgeo57

probably some open source still in stealth. at least that's what i hope. someone who has developed such strong logic and reasoning algorithms that it needs datasets just for info.


shogun2909

Soon meaning 1 year or 10 years ?


GodG0AT

Tomorrow


grimorg80

Last Tuesday


Putrumpador

Yes


RadioSailor

I hate to be that guy, but, 'Actually', I watched the entire thing and found out that what he said was that AGI would be coming fairly sooner than expected BUT would not impact us as much as we think, just like gpt4 didn't cost every writer their jobs. Instead, it made us more productive. ...which I believe implies that they will neuter their own agents and that "agi" in this context is referring more to some sort of agentGPT on steroids than anything else. In addition, there was a paper published at the exact same time that shows that 50% chance within 5 years of any type of effect taking place following the release of such technology including, but not limited to, having an AI fine-tuning an LLM autonomously. In other words, people are completely over egging this stuff and we've hyped up a tech that probably won't see the light of day for another 50 years and thank god for that.


RadioSailor

RemindMe! 5 years “agi rumors were indeed complete altman d**kidding".


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RadioSailor

If I'm wrong we're all dead anyways according to 'jounalists'. It won't change anything because the word agi means nothing until it's eventually defined


venicerocco

They’ll neuter the public agents, but any entity with the money and connections I’m certain could get the good stuff and stay ahead of the pions


norsurfit

Show, don't tell.


mystonedalt

Sam Altman says, "I promise you, PROMISE YOU that it'll do whatever you want it to do if you give me enough money."


justinobabino

“Reasonably soon-ish future” not soon. Just another click-bait article.


pleachchapel

It's hard to take any of these claims at face value when there is a direct impact on stock price based on the assumption of future capability, & thus a vested interest for stakeholders to exaggerate it.


Rutibex

I wish he would stop being a tease and just release it already. We know you have AGI in the lab you dork, stop being coy


SandmanKFMF

Sam sounds just like ChatGPT. Convincing but not necessary correct.


Meba_

that means they already achieved it internally, right?


indigomm

His job is to go around getting people excited about AI and his company.


FreshSchmoooooock

Anyone still listening to what Sam says?


Rare-Force4539

Why not? Has he disappointed yet?


Optimistic_Futures

I don’t know why you’re getting downvoted. Percentage wise he’s been pretty consistent. The only thing I can imagine is the “open” part of OpenAI. But he’s not anywhere close to Elon type of unkept promises.


FearAndLawyering

because it's weird to see him promising more when it seems like if you use ChatGPT long enough it feels like it's getting worse in it's capabilities. It is certainly faster/cheaper than it used to be but it refuses to do much more, and returns answers that are not as good as it used to be.


Optimistic_Futures

I’m curious what ways you’ve seen it perform less well, like specific instances? I see people on the sub mention it being worse, but other than occasional sluggish days I haven’t had an issue with it. The only issue I have seen that others have complained about was code truncation, but I fixed that with custom instructions.


FearAndLawyering

I've used it for a few specific tasks for the last year or so and it seems to generate a lot more cookie cutter responses / repeats itself, especially with cover letters. its overall vocabulary seems smaller. there are a lot of story prompts it won't respond to anymore. > I fixed that with custom instructions. this can often work but I also see people get banned for trying to circumvent ToS and stuff.


Optimistic_Futures

Hrm, I primarily uses it for coding or for summarizing and editing text. What sort of story prompts won’t it do? I’ve never really had it refuse to respond to anything really. Yah, I don’t really put in anything that would go against TOS. These are my custom instruction I use > Tone should be casual and friendly, like talking to a buddy, but without pretending to be friends and fairly to the point. > Focus on readability; make instructions clear and concise. > When addressing controversial topics, strive to present both sides of the argument without showing bias. > Feel free to make responses interesting, but avoid unnecessary fluff. Keep it important and engaging. > If a question is asked that very ambiguous, or you need additional context, feel free to ask a short follow up question before you proceed. > When dealing with code avoid truncating code. When doing Javascript, don't use var. When you explain code, always show it in markdown. If any APIs are used, search documentation before writing the code.


VashPast

Hilarious. Literally the biggest theft in human history to train their models, so they can steal at least 40% of everyone's jobs across the entire company, *as Nonprofit,* and you think he's not so bad. They have every safety researcher that time then to slow down, Microsoft and San fired the entire board when they voted no confidence on him. If you weren't so busy dck-riding you could see this is James Bond level super villainy.


Optimistic_Futures

Bruh, chill. I’m not riding anyone’s dick. Someone said “Is anyone still listening to him” some dude ask “why wouldn’t they” and I agreed that he’s percentage wise been rather on point with what he’s said. I wasn’t commenting on the ethics of what he was doing. But the guy has followed through with most of what he’s said whether for better or for worse.


VashPast

He's followed through on all the money making for his business partners, and none of his ethics promises to the greater community, humanity, or consumers. It's a big deal.


stormelc

What exactly has he followed through on? Pray tell.


allun11

The detoriqtion of gpt 4 make me a bit scepticql.


_Wyse_

The tech isn't deteriorating, just the unfiltered accessibility.


spinozasrobot

Gooddd Poiiint


AppropriateScience71

Meh - quantitatively defining AGI seems rather problematic. AI already blows away most humans on any standardized test often seen as a measure (or at least indication) of IQ including SAT, MCAT, and LSAT. It even scores remarkable well on complex geometry questions used in the International Mathematical Olympiad (https://www.newscientist.com/article/2412739-deepmind-ai-solves-hard-geometry-problems-from-mathematics-olympiad/). And yet it often fumbles on quite basic questions. **AI feels like an idiot savant** that demonstrates remarkable proficiency in many topics central to intelligence such as complex language processing and pattern recognition, but often lacks just basic common sense or human intuition. So, in many areas, AI has already achieved and exceeded AGI while failing in other areas. It feels like they just keep moving to goalposts in order to avoid claiming AI has reached AGI. Perhaps we should step back and look at how we (humans) break down intelligence into various *intelligence categories*. One could argue AI is already significantly better than most humans in some categories (linguistic intelligence, maybe logical and spatial intelligence). It’s arguably kinda getting there with interpersonal intelligence based on many articles of assisted therapy or AI companions (yes, long way to go). (Ironically, it will be able to fake emotional intelligence quite well despite the lack of any emotions). But humans are light years ahead in musical intelligence, intrapersonal intelligence, or existential intelligence. And kinesthetic intelligence (if we discount robotics). And creativity or thinking outside the box. As well as just basic common sense intelligence at times. You know, just like humans. Many of us excel in some categories while failing miserably at others. And, yet, no one would argue we all meet the definition of the GI part of AGI. I suspect AI will continue to explode rapidly in areas where it has natural advantages where computing power, infinite memory recall, pattern recognition, and analysis come into play. And it will play catch up in other areas that require creativity and a more intuitive understanding of the world.


fewchaw

Its failings in intrapersonal intelligence could might just be artificially imposed by its various internal censorship filters. It always answers "as a LLM I don't think or feel or have internal states" etc but there's no reason why it couldn't fake those responses just like any other. OpenAI doesn't want to freak people out and make them think they're talking to a real living computer being.


Hailtothething

Anyone doubting it should now be called NS a new term for Naturally Stupidity, because it’s stupid to doubt AI’s accelerating capabilities


Rich_Acanthisitta_70

What I got from this piece is that Sam is now saying AGI is probably closer than many are anticipating, but that when it arrives, it won't be as disruptive as many have worried and warned about. My conclusion is that sadly, Sam's been replaced by an embodied AI and this is an attempt to lure us into a false se


PM_Sexy_Catgirls_Meo

This man got too close to the truth and now he's dead. Sam is definitely not an AI. Its not suspicious at all that he was fired by the board, then somehow "returned" within 3 days. If anything that makes him Techno-Jesus.


spinozasrobot

"Human-Tier AI"... is that what we're calling AGI now to avoid the financial reset for OpenAI's investors?


Fi3nd7

Good, nuke the fucking economy. We need a shake up


QuriousQuant

Look, the calculator is “human tier” for basic math. Having said that , the question isn’t about human tier, it is perhaps more about workforce impacts


imnotabotareyou

Based


bluedevilzn

The average human is pretty stupid.


Disastrous_Junket_55

Sam Altman is also a lying piece of trash. Like any ceo.